Latest / Why We Do What We Do / Artificial Intelligence with Joseph Dailey
Transcript
- 0:03You're listening to Why we do what we do. Welcome to Why we do
- 0:16what we do. I am your barely conscious host Abraham, and I'm calculating
- 0:22a lot of data really rapidly. Host Shane Nice, good job. We
- 0:26are psychology podcast, and we talk about all the things that people do,
- 0:29and sometimes the things that people make, and then the things that the things
- 0:32that they make do. That's what we're talking about today, and we're so
- 0:35lucky we get to have someone who's much more of an expert in this than
- 0:39we are, and that allowed me to not have to read as much as
- 0:41I normally have to read when I'm wanting together things together, and I'd like
- 0:45reading, but it does take a lot of time. So thanks for being
- 0:48here. I'd like to welcome our special guest, Joseph Daily. Joey,
- 0:52can you introduce yourself? Absolutely, Hello, folks. My name is Joey.
- 0:55I'm an electrical engineering student at University in Vatterino. I'm a graduate student
- 1:00studying how we might be able to use reinforcement learning to make robots more pleasant
- 1:07to work with, safer, smarter, better at doing what people want them
- 1:11to do. I'm also a teacher and musician. And a very fortunate be
- 1:18colleague of Abraham in the past, and very pleased to be here. Yeah.
- 1:23Part of the reason that I felt like it made a lot of sense
- 1:26to have have you come on to talk about this with us is because you
- 1:30have had your sort of feet in both ponds. If you will, think
- 1:33you are someone who understands behavioral philosophy really well and also understands AI at least
- 1:38a lot better than anyone else that I know, and so being able to
- 1:42blend those two in a way that allows us to have a cogent conversation is
- 1:47really valuable. Yeah, I have the rare distinction of being slightly better than
- 1:52lay person into fields if that's If that's sufficient, you know, I'm happy
- 2:00to illuminate whatever I can here for you. You're aggressively humble, And when
- 2:06I say an inch deep and a mile wide, like you know, you
- 2:08know just enough about a lot of things. It's like you know enough to
- 2:12have really cool conversations, but not enough to get on Jeopardy, which is
- 2:14perfectly fine. That's like, that's our demographic might be a mile wide,
- 2:17but my experience of conversations with you is definitely more than an inch deep.
- 2:23This metaphor is getting awfully ephemistic. Let's go ahead and transition to our topic
- 2:28here, and actually before we do that, just to remind everybody, if
- 2:30you'd like to support us, you can join us on Patreon, pick up
- 2:32some merch, leave us a rating and review, subscribe, send us nice
- 2:36letters through a large language model AI generation machines. We appreciate that too,
- 2:39and I'll talk more about this at the end of the discussion, but first
- 2:44we should also recognize that if you're listening to this on the day then it
- 2:46comes out we like to issh you a happy National Hot Buttered Rum Day.
- 2:52Right, Okay, I'll go through a couple more. It's also National Bootleggers
- 2:55Day. I'm not sure that's a professional. A lot of people of stuff
- 2:59carry. It's also National I'm sorry, It's Museum Selfie Day, so if
- 3:02you like paintings, that's a really cool thing to go do. It's also
- 3:07Benjamin Franklin Day. If you are a fan of kites, keys, electricity,
- 3:10and STDs. Sure you can bootleg a bottle of hot buttered rum into
- 3:15a museum in Man. I mean you're really celebrating with a plom There are
- 3:22more holidays but we'll leave it for now. I think we've got such an
- 3:23interesting discussion. I'm excited to get to all right, anything else before we
- 3:28jump into this conversation, Shane that you can think of. No, I'm
- 3:31really excited about this. The first conference talk that I ever did was on
- 3:37a paper that was about AI and behavior analysis, So I'm really excited to
- 3:40dive into this. Oh man, if you remind me we should put a
- 3:44link to that then this. No no, no, no, no,
- 3:46no, no, we don't need to do that. I was way way
- 3:50out of my scope and I did an hour a fifty minute talk in thirty
- 3:53minutes because I was too nervous. So I'm so excited to talk about this
- 3:54though. I love this stuff. I'm glad you said that because one of
- 3:58the things that I think that may or may not come as a surprise to
- 4:01some people, depending on where they're at in the news with the world,
- 4:04I guess as how much longer AI has been around, then maybe it seems
- 4:09like because the explosion of art generating AI and large language model AI in just
- 4:16the last couple of years has made it seem like we haven't had AI before
- 4:23this. We have, but it has definitely shifted dramatically, and I would
- 4:28say that I think the word of the year for twenty twenty three was chat
- 4:32GPT. I definitely heard that more than just about I thought it was going
- 4:35to be spy balloons for a minute, but that pretty much petered out around
- 4:40like maybe March or April. Yeah, and then it was chat GPT reigned
- 4:45supreme. So let's actually let's quickly discuss what AI is and then we'll talk
- 4:49about some of the really the most popular applications of it. Now, if
- 4:54we come to a consensus on what AI is, we will be doing We
- 4:58will be doing better and in the field has been today, We'll be doing
- 5:01God's work here breaking on this podcast. Yeah, groundbreaking science probably a good
- 5:08place to start. As Ada Lovelace, okay, because I guess the earliest
- 5:12notion that we have of an artificial intelligence is just automation, right, the
- 5:17ability to instruct a machine to do something and have it do it. It's
- 5:23not a very robust form of intelligence. But with Ada Lovelace in the I
- 5:28want to say, the mid nineteenth century, we kind of have the first
- 5:30notion that we can make machines do sophisticated tasks. Even tasks where some emergent
- 5:40behavior at the time of their execution might be necessary. I think Charles Babbage,
- 5:46who was a contemporary of Ada Lovelace and whose work she's credited with improving
- 5:50on. Charles Babbage was of the opinion that a machine with a few arithmetic
- 5:57operations could do everything of consequence to a human being. Wow. And then
- 6:02in the early twentieth century we started probing the limitations of systems like that.
- 6:11This is where we get the first work that essentially shows you can't do everything,
- 6:16at least not quickly or well with conventional simple computers. Fair yeah,
- 6:21especially back then, especially back then. But it's even more extensive than that.
- 6:28I mean, this was some of the foundational work of if you're familiar
- 6:30with these names Church and Turing and some of their contemporaries in early early computer
- 6:38science, that there are really fundamental limitations to what can be accomplished with what's
- 6:42called, for example, a touring machine, which is a general model of
- 6:45a computer. Sure, so that takes us into the middle of the twentieth
- 6:48century and people start looking at like, okay, well, then we know
- 6:53that there are things people can do that we haven't succeeded in implementing very robustly
- 6:57with computers, which are supposed to be in some ways at least a lot
- 7:00faster and a lot smarter. So how do we bridge that gap? And
- 7:05people start looking then that neurology and figuring that there might be something structural in
- 7:11the way that brains are hooked up that enables some unexpected emergent behavior. And
- 7:18they're right, they're just not right for the right reasons yet. But so
- 7:21in the nineteen sixties we got what's called a perceptron, and you should google
- 7:26a picture of this thing if you get a chance one of the early perceptrons.
- 7:29They're really funky. The notion here is that if you can define your
- 7:32problem as a set of numeric inputs, it's like, say, your problem
- 7:38is a picture that you want to classify as either being of a dog or
- 7:41not of a dog. Zero one, Right, there's some linear combination of
- 7:47the pixels that comprise that image such that you can scale them somehow, add
- 7:53them up, maybe do that a few times in multiple layers, and eventually
- 7:58get out a number that's a zero or one. And I say you should
- 8:01look this up, because there wasn't a good way to implement this in silicon
- 8:05or I guess at the time in tubes yet. So one of the first
- 8:11implementations of a perceptron was a machine with like every individual linear weight in the
- 8:16in the model quote unquote was a physical knob that would be turned with a
- 8:22motor, and the motor would be worrying it back and forth as it progressed
- 8:26through through the learning process until it honed in on exactly the right position for
- 8:31each dial. Wow, it's bizarre. Yeah, I think it's about the
- 8:35coolest thing ever built. And then that too quickly shows its faults. The
- 8:41picture I'm looking at looks like a closet full of wires and knobs. This
- 8:45is the mark one perceptron machine. It looks like you open a closet door
- 8:50and it's just full of like cables and wires and stuff like it's pretty it's
- 8:54pretty extensive. Yeah, And for perspective, this might be as much which
- 9:00is a millimeter on a modern silicon die to implement something similar, like we
- 9:05have come that far because we're still talking about like a computer is either a
- 9:11human job description or a room in a building at this time, right,
- 9:16Yeah, I know they've said that like the the computing power that it took
- 9:22to send people to the moon, we carry like ten times that in our
- 9:28pocket on our phone. Yeah, so we're talking about those heady days of
- 9:33early electronic computing. So yeah, they start doing this, They find that
- 9:39perceptrons can classify images really well, can handle certain kinds of data really well.
- 9:46People get excited that, hey, maybe this is this is artificial intelligence.
- 9:50This is not just like wrote algorithmic behavior. This is something legitimately novel,
- 9:58and so they start trying to apply it to machine translation, and that
- 10:01falls through pretty quick. Sure are they like asking how it feels. We're
- 10:07not even there yet. We're at the foot where people are starting to are
- 10:11trying to like apply inside of like Darba, are starting to try and apply
- 10:16computers to the process of like translating English to French or whatever, and it's
- 10:22just not There is nothing that's much better than just simple word substitutions. And
- 10:28then at the same time, there's a proof that perceptrons cannot solve certain what
- 10:35we call nonlinear classification problems. Meaning if if you were to plot all of
- 10:41the data that you want to classify into two groups, and let's say you
- 10:46have group one, which is red, and group two, which is blue.
- 10:48Unless you can separate red and blue with a single clean stroke on the
- 10:54graph, or you know, if there are more than two variables, then
- 10:58you know a plane a hyper But unless you can put a clean linear boundary
- 11:03between your two groups of perceptron can't do it. And that leads us into
- 11:07what we call the AI winter. Ooo. That sounds so scary, It
- 11:13sort of was. It was beginning to look for computer scientists like a very
- 11:18dark and lonely time because confidence in the ability of machines to ever replicate some
- 11:24of the things people can do had just evaporated, and the funding went with
- 11:30it. This was I mean, you'll get different dates on this, but
- 11:33from roughly, like i'd say, the nineteen seventies to the nineties, nobody
- 11:39is looking very much at neural networks. Nobody is looking very much at AI
- 11:43anymore. You know, obviously there are exceptions, but there's sort of a
- 11:48broad agreement that the potential is limited. Do you think that's why DISCO took
- 11:50cold Like why there was this like gap in you know, human intelligence growing
- 11:54and developing, so they had to you know, supplant it with something like
- 11:58you know, I don't know, Donna Summers the intellectual pessimism of the day.
- 12:05They needed something better to do to explain how Reagan got elected too.
- 12:09Yeah, yeah, and that's and then we ended up with Drunge and we're
- 12:13like, okay, all right, Like it got real dark. Towards the
- 12:16end of this winter, it gets better. This next part goes pretty fast.
- 12:20Starting in the nineties two thousands, we start getting better faster GPUs graphical
- 12:26processing units. And these aren't just good for graphics, although people buy a
- 12:31lot of them for that. They they're good at anything that requires a lot
- 12:33of very fast parallel computation that isn't super sophisticated, like I don't know,
- 12:39for example, like multiplying a lot of things by linear weights. So now
- 12:43all of a sudden, we can do certain kinds of math that are applicable
- 12:48to AI really really fast. People start taking renewed interest in recurrent neural networks,
- 12:54which are ones that feedback into themselves, and convolutional neural networks, which
- 12:58is like you have a little squad window that slides over an image and looks
- 13:01at each little part of it and tries to identify what features of the image
- 13:05there are and then in twenty twelve, I think we get something called alex
- 13:11net, which is the first convolutional neural network that really excels at classifying images.
- 13:18Cool, we're talking like unprecedented performance in computer vision, and people start
- 13:24going, hey, wait, maybe there's something to this after all. And
- 13:28then in twenty eighteen we get GPT, which is I guess kind of really
- 13:33why we're here talking about it. I mean, yeah, GPT is,
- 13:37for those of you don't who don't know, the open Ayes generative pre trained
- 13:41transformer. And what that means is generative is it's making stuff, right,
- 13:46It's not just performing a classification or it's not performing a task. It is
- 13:52making stuff on command, Yeah, on command, yeah, in response to
- 13:56a prompt, pre trained. Because this was never originally going to be a
- 14:01general purpose model. GPT was going to be sort of a basis for like,
- 14:05Okay, we've trained it on a wide swath of the English language,
- 14:11pulled off off the wild west of the Internet, and then you can take
- 14:16this thing, this monstrosity, and kind of fine tune it a little bit
- 14:22with specific texts in your area of interest. And then a transformer is there's
- 14:31a lot to what a transformer is. But the important thing there is that
- 14:35we're using a technology called self attention, where the machine is looking both at
- 14:37the prompt and the text that it's generated, and it doesn't differentiate between the
- 14:43two. It just says, given this prior distribution of text, what's likely
- 14:48to come next? Right? Okay. That's been difficult to do. Recurrent
- 14:50neural networks, like I said, with feedback, had been the way we
- 14:54were trying to do that for a long long time. But there's this thing
- 15:00that happens where because those process the text in order, you forget what comes
- 15:07at the beginning of the sentence before you reach the end, even if it's
- 15:09really really important, and self attention doesn't do that. Self attention looks at
- 15:13the whole text all at once and identifies relationships between the words. Okay,
- 15:20And we'll talk a little bit more about why that might be relevant to how
- 15:24we think about language inside of psychology a little bit later. I suppose,
- 15:26Yeah, I'm so sorry to do this too, but unfortunately we have to
- 15:31let the artificial unintelligence take over for just a moment, and that's our ads.
- 15:41Fortunately, our ad breaks for us are extremely short, so they're already
- 15:45over. But we'll go ahead and jump back into this. I wanted to
- 15:48comment that I think, as you said, what probably what surprised me and
- 15:54so I assume surprised other people about the use of CHATGBT is how accurate it's
- 16:00simulated generated language, because it spits out syntactically sensitive relevant information immediately based on
- 16:11whatever problem do you give it? So much so that the first time I
- 16:15used it, I was like, is this like a joke? And there's
- 16:17someone on the other end of this is like a huge network group of people
- 16:19who like, there's some one of the other end generating responses to what I
- 16:23say, trying to make me believe that a computer is doing this, But
- 16:27it's it's actually gotten faster, like so much so that I'm like, oh,
- 16:30humans can't generate information that quickly. Yeah, that's the crazy thing.
- 16:34There was some speculation, I mean, it was even an in joke for
- 16:38a while among people working on natural language processing, which is which is unfortunately
- 16:42not very much of what I do personally, But I was privy to some
- 16:47of these discussions where like people were joking that it was like Amazon mechanical Turk,
- 16:51like you've you've hired somebody in another country on like a piece work basis
- 16:57to type back at you. Yeah, and that's why open ai has these
- 17:02billions of dollars in funding. But no, it's it's ridiculous how quick it's
- 17:07gotten and syntax, the ability to generate really sophisticated pros I think is where
- 17:14it really shines. Of course we'll talk too, I think about where maybe
- 17:18doesn't shine. But yeah, that's it's pretty remarkable. And for a long
- 17:21time we thought that was sort of impossible because we just didn't have we didn't
- 17:26have a compelling way to get there until we came up with this attention thing.
- 17:30And in fact, there's there's a paper. It's a little bit mathematically
- 17:34dense, but it's a good concept paper too if you're interested. It's it's
- 17:37called a tension is All you Need and it's sort of a discussion of why
- 17:41you don't need memory to generate really sophisticated, complex, accurate language on a
- 17:52computer. So I mean, that's well worth reading if you want to.
- 17:57And by the way, this is not just news to you, and this
- 18:00is just this is not just used news to people using the technology. The
- 18:07efficiency with which transformers have scaled, the gains on performance that have been observed
- 18:14were news to the people developing them. Wow, GPP was already unexpectedly way
- 18:21better than GPT two. Yeah, to the extent that this is where I
- 18:26think the public started taking a little bit more seriously the idea that AI could
- 18:30represent a in and of itself, a major player in the fate of humanity
- 18:34over the next several decades, or this explosion and capability that nobody saw coming.
- 18:40Well, and you're talking, we're talking right now, you know,
- 18:42nearly two hundred years of research into this thing, right, like at least
- 18:48at least like formal research and inquiry around this. I mean you're talking from
- 18:52Ada Lovelace and like kind of like the conceptual stuff all the way till now
- 18:55You've got two hundred years of having this discussion, and all of a sudden
- 18:57it is like gone from we can do simple things too. It is exploded
- 19:03into this really useful tool that people are still like kind of going, oh,
- 19:07what are the possibilities now? And even the people that have developed it
- 19:11have no idea what it can do. Oh yeah, it's for the first
- 19:15time we're not thinking about how do we how do we get it to do
- 19:18what we want it to do, and there's a greater research effort directed at
- 19:22how do we know what it can do? And then eventually it'll go how
- 19:26can we stop this? You know, I'm just kidding. I mean,
- 19:30that's a real concern that people have. I mean, even I think that
- 19:34maybe we underestimate the ability of really comparatively stupid models to impact human behavior pretty
- 19:42radically. I mean the way that people have been persuaded to kind of,
- 19:48you know, self censor and use character substitutions on TikTok because they're afraid that
- 19:53the monetization algorithm will delete their videos and things like that. So we have
- 20:00this interesting example where it's like, you know, the purpose of the algorithm
- 20:03implemented on a platform like YouTube or TikTok is just to maximize engagement and profitability,
- 20:08but there's a sort of ancillary emergent goal happening in the aggregate as instances
- 20:15of these models cooperate. That is a kind of like morality agent. It's
- 20:22really fascinating that we don't need very sophisticated autonomous behavior at all for it to
- 20:29start really radically impacting people's lives. Coded Bias is a documentary that's out there
- 20:34that's a great examination of that. It happens all the time, and so
- 20:38yeah, people are very I think, you know, maybe their picture of
- 20:44what that might look like is not always the most accurate, but I think
- 20:47people are very rightly concerned about how this affects humanities, you know, disposition
- 20:52in the world at large. I work a lot in the publishing world,
- 20:55and there was some discussion around the issues of like aigen rated books and that
- 21:00we're written based on authors writings and so like, there was like this use
- 21:06of this tool where these books were being written by ghost writers essentially, and
- 21:11there is a discussion around kind of the art around that and the art being
- 21:14taken away and so so like it guess going to your point, like people
- 21:18being rightly concerned about the uses of this tool and how there are really no
- 21:21limitations to it or like what it can do and all that stuff. I
- 21:23think it's we're starting to see that that stuff is going to kind of emerge,
- 21:26I imagine over time, and then safeguards and you know, stop gaps
- 21:32and stuff are going to be have to be put in place as those problems
- 21:34start to arise, because we just don't know what those problems will be there
- 21:38is, as you mentioned, the concern that grows about people. I think
- 21:41that they's toured on the more conspiratorial side. AI is going to take over
- 21:48everything, and we're going to lose their jobs, and like it'll it'll just
- 21:51it'll just want to kill people, and I think there is we need to
- 21:53get to that at some point. And then there's also, I think the
- 21:56more practical side, which is that this is now shown to be useful enough
- 22:00that actually can replace a chunk of human behavior and certain sectors of the workforce
- 22:06and actually going after white collar jobs more so than blue collar jobs. And
- 22:10so those people who have a little bit more power and influence be feeling particularly
- 22:14threatened and wanting to do something about it. And there's something to talk about
- 22:18in there. And I think also, you know, we started with this
- 22:22trying to describe in some amount of definition what AI is, and if we
- 22:26just we'll look at the two words separately, not to get too deep into
- 22:30the philosophy of this right at the moment, but artificial I think the way
- 22:33we're using it right now is to suggest that it was created by human beings,
- 22:38and the intelligence part I think we're aligning with some amount of generative autonomy
- 22:45in a sense in the way that this is being applied, and whether you
- 22:48want to go back and parse out like you know, what intelligence actually is
- 22:52or isn't, or how we've tried to define it and failed for so long,
- 22:56and the idea that like, well, every time, you know,
- 23:00a person only gains intelligence through interactions with education and teachers and learning. And
- 23:04if we've seen instances where they don't get that and they barely develop any kind
- 23:10of you know, coaching language or anything, or they can interact meaningfully with
- 23:14those around them, and so is that also then artificial because humans construct one
- 23:19another in the ways of intelligence. We don't need to go down that path
- 23:22I think I'm getting I would really love to go down that. We can
- 23:26save that for we can save that for later time, because there's a lot
- 23:30there. I mean, we are very attached as a species to the notion
- 23:36of intelligence as something special and intrinsic to us maybe sometimes, and I think
- 23:41that's one place where the philosophy of behaviorism can be really helpful to us and
- 23:45understanding what this is, you know, it's do we necessarily have to privilege
- 23:52intelligence as an unobservable intrinsic quality in order to appreciate the capability of a sophisticated
- 23:59system. Just you know's there's that little thing to chew on, and I've
- 24:03been I've been wrestling with that now for years. Yeah, I think more
- 24:08to the more immediate point. I mean, you're right, you know there
- 24:11are there are longitudinal concerns. Conspiratorial is one word, for sure. Your
- 24:18Eliza Yukowski's in Time magazine this past year talking about, you know, an
- 24:22AI that with an insufficiently well defined goal might inevitably find itself best served by
- 24:29doing something dangerous, existentially dangerous to people. And then we have the more
- 24:33immediate sense in which people's livelihoods are are potentially endangered even now, because you
- 24:41know, whether it's rightly placed or not. There is such speculative fervor over
- 24:45what human capabilities can be replaced with a technology like this. But before we
- 24:52get too excited about that, like, I feel like that paints a pretty
- 24:56grim picture. I think it's also worth talking about things that these models are
- 25:00maybe not so good at. Yeah. Part of this where is going I
- 25:03think this segues nicely into this conversation is the idea of like general intelligence as
- 25:08we like to talk about among humans versus a specific intelligence and what general intelligence
- 25:15would mean for AI, what specific intelligence means for AI. And also,
- 25:19like one of the things that some skeptics have raised is we don't need AI
- 25:25to be generally intelligent, and it's really, as far as we know,
- 25:27it seems really really difficult to get there. So no one's going to put
- 25:32in the effort to try and get it there, because a specific AI will
- 25:36do way better than a human will do at a specific task. And so
- 25:40we don't necessarily wouldn't be compelled to create one that can do everything. We
- 25:44don't expect humans to do everything. We don't really need a robot to do
- 25:47everything. We need a lot of little robots who are really good at a
- 25:49thing or a couple of things. The interface between the general and the specific
- 25:55is sort of where my research interests lie. Oh great, I can talk
- 26:00to you in the broadest terms about large language models, which are today kind
- 26:06of the only generalists that exist. And there's some vindication I think for certain
- 26:11sub fields of psychology that are concerned with language in that what it seems like
- 26:17has happened and what's part of this unexpected explosion of capability is that in order
- 26:21to emulate language, well, you have to incidentally acquire certain other useful faculties.
- 26:27So Google put out a paper maybe as long as two years ago now
- 26:33that was, and I had occasion to discuss this with Steve Hayes. Are
- 26:36friends of the podcast familiar with Steve hays He actually was a guest on this
- 26:40than the first or second year that we were doing this, so I think
- 26:42so, yeah, so just a little bit, just a little bit.
- 26:45Maybe I had occasion to talk with with Steve Hayses, who's a wonderful guy,
- 26:48about a paper Google put out a couple of years ago discussing how the
- 26:53language model they were developing at the time was unexpectedly good at math, not
- 26:57great, but unexpectedly really good, which was sort of a corollary of his
- 27:03work on language that we should expect that. And it's also the case that
- 27:08we get decent programming out of these models, right like we get you can
- 27:15ask it to generate Python for you and it will, which is a coding
- 27:18language. For those that don't are familiar with that, the possover in terminology
- 27:23sometimes kills me. That's what we're here for. I'll be your every man
- 27:27I'll be the person that's like, I have no idea what that means.
- 27:30Love it. So even even the generalist models are like outsourcing some capability to
- 27:37writing code that can then be expressed to give an answer that would be harder
- 27:41to get from within the model itself, because that's a thing you can do
- 27:45when you can produce language. It's not just restricted to English pros. And
- 27:51then there are certain other things that come with that, like even though a
- 27:56large language model has never seen a sunset, you might have to develop kind
- 28:00of a model of a world model that includes what a sunset is in order
- 28:04to be able to accurately describe one. Right, So what's actually happening when
- 28:08these things are being trained is that they're just guessing the next word that comes
- 28:12in a text. And to get really good at guessing what the next word
- 28:17that comes in a text is going to be, you have to have a
- 28:18model of what the author is saying, what the author's perspective is, the
- 28:22world that the author lives in. So it's not just language, it's not
- 28:26just a model of the syntax. There's maybe buried somewhere deep in the weights
- 28:33sort of a simulated picture of what things do in the world. So it
- 28:37seems like for at least for the foreseeable future, our really good general models
- 28:41are going to be language models. But it's also true that we have a
- 28:48lot of specific models which are kind of what I do with robots and what
- 28:52I've looked at doing for some like potentially some like space borne technologies and things
- 28:57like that, where you get a smaller model really really good at one task,
- 29:02and if you need more sophisticated behavior, you can sort of glue those
- 29:04together. So those are sort of the two directions that people take within that
- 29:11your right to say that the what's the word I want here? The specialists
- 29:17are a lot better at what they do in general than the language model sometimes
- 29:21are. Okay, I sent you guys a link to a quiz where you
- 29:26try and guess what GPT is capable of from a set of sample problems,
- 29:30and I think that would be really cool to share with the listeners. But
- 29:33I will I will summarize my takeaway. Large language models are really really good
- 29:37at giving you realistic answers. What they are trained to do is produce very
- 29:41similar to sometimes the easiest way to seem correct is just to be correct and
- 29:48that's a lot of what we rely on in education. Right, is like,
- 29:51at a certain point, if we give you enough examples, the best
- 29:52way to fit all of them is going to be to learn the underlying pattern.
- 29:57It'll just take too much. It's too demanding to memorize all the answers.
- 30:03Right, not necessarily always true. I mean, I think probably everybody
- 30:07here has seen some like pretty radical overfitting in a student or a inside of
- 30:11a clinic at one time or another where you see just some pretty phenomenally honed
- 30:18in specific malaud of fiction. Sure, and so in the same way,
- 30:25we don't always get generalization that way, but often in the pursuit of giving
- 30:30producing realistic language, we do achieve correct language. Neural networks at large are
- 30:34very good at detecting and continuing patterns that might not be obvious in the data.
- 30:40Whatever the data is. The data could be you know, language,
- 30:41but it could also be like I've applied some of this to weather forecasting and
- 30:47gotten some really really good results, because there are patterns in weather data that
- 30:52just aren't necessarily salient to a human observer and don't have the emphasis they should
- 30:59have in a conventional statistical model. Yeah, they are very good at memorization.
- 31:03I think the count for tutable parameters in GPT four is one hundred trillion.
- 31:08Oh, that's all. It's all that order of magnitude, and that
- 31:12there is a lot of information that you can encode with one hundred and one
- 31:17hundred trillion variables. Yeah, that seems like it. There's a lot of
- 31:22combinations there, I would imagine. I think you also just stressed out all
- 31:26of our meteorologist listeners because they were like, I thought I was good at
- 31:30this, and now you're finding out that this software might be aler, this
- 31:33tool might be a little bit better than they are at it. It's possible.
- 31:37I mean, what I've done with this is looked at the upper,
- 31:40upper upper atmosphere, where most of us will never have to worry about it
- 31:42if we're not in space. So for now, meteorologists, you're safe from
- 31:45me. Well, unfortunately I need to interrupt with us going into the upper
- 31:48atmosphere where the ads cannot reach us. But unfortunately they stay put in the
- 31:53embedded structure of the episode. Okay, so it seems like we're sort of
- 32:04on a roll here with like what AI is good at versus what it's not
- 32:07good at. So let's keep on that sort of that trajectory here, because
- 32:10I think it helps illustrate one of the things I feel like we're building toward,
- 32:15and how this is related to psychology and understanding human behavior is the question
- 32:21that everybody has. Is it conscious or can it be conscious? Is it
- 32:24sentient? Can it be sentient? And what do those things mean? So
- 32:28we have to understand right now what it already is doing and what it isn't
- 32:31doing to I think arrive at some place where we can have a meaningful discussion
- 32:36about that without having a definitive answer ready at our fingertips. Yeah, so,
- 32:40I mean, let's get into the what it can for a second here,
- 32:45if you'll indulge me. I will I alluded to the fact that maybe
- 32:49in order to produce realistic, you know, touring testy language, you have
- 32:57to have kind of a world model. You know, you have to be
- 33:00able to describe something to a human that sounds like it was written by a
- 33:05creature with ears and eyes important features here that does not always pan out.
- 33:10When you start asking for spatial reasoning, you start getting really mixed results.
- 33:20There's a kind of problem that I like to play with with a lot of
- 33:22large language models where you guys can follow along, play along at home if
- 33:28you want. But the example I like to give is like, let's say
- 33:31I'm a clockmaker and I have two clocks A and B. All right,
- 33:37A is going to be my reference, So A at some given moments in
- 33:45time, clock A says a A, and clock B says eight oh five.
- 33:52Let's say, okay, okay, sounds good. I'm going to come
- 33:55back in a little bit. Block A now says eight oh four, Block
- 34:01B now says eight oh six. My question is which clock's hands are turning
- 34:07faster? I would say based on just the current outcome A. But I
- 34:14don't think that we could know because we don't know if the other one is
- 34:15rotating faster based on like did it do a full rotation? I think A
- 34:21is a really good answer, especially if I tell you that you come back
- 34:22on the same day, or if I tell you that you come back,
- 34:27you know, five minutes later, or if I tell you that neither clock
- 34:30has done a full rotation, you know, if I add a little bit
- 34:32of information. But like heuristically, it seems likelier that a clock would be
- 34:37you know, faster slow by a few minutes than by a whole rotation.
- 34:42So it's a reasonable answer, right, I wouldn't fault you for saying B.
- 34:47If you could say, well, maybe bed A did a full three
- 34:51sixty, that's fine. The thing is when you start asking I played with.
- 34:54Google has a new movel called Gemini that gets this consistently wrong every time.
- 35:00If you tell it not to use code chat GPT is about fifty to
- 35:04fifty. Oh okay, well, I mean that's about as as accurate.
- 35:07It's about as wrong as you can be. Really. Yeah, when you
- 35:13have two answers, my experience is that it's very very sensitive. Put question
- 35:15is raised unexpectedly. So so this is like a real I call this an
- 35:21overhang, right where we have a model that can do really sophisticated, incredible
- 35:27stuff and it's missing the most basic kind of world modeling and reasoning. Yeah,
- 35:32that just sounds like me, Like that just sounds like I can do
- 35:36all this really like interesting stuff, but I can't. I don't know how
- 35:38to, like I don't know, change a tire or something, you know,
- 35:40like apparently I'm ai is what I've learned in this episode. It's a
- 35:45little bit more sophisticated than that. I think right, because to your point,
- 35:49Shane, it's a little bit like if you didn't know how to change
- 35:52a tire, but you didn't know how to repair in f fifty right,
- 35:57right, right, right. It's it's weird. It's it's truly weird,
- 36:00because we shouldn't expect to see such poor performance on some measures of basic reasoning
- 36:08when we see such great performance on things like the sat right right, and
- 36:13it can now pass the bar. I think it passed medical licensing boards.
- 36:19I believe that they did a study where they asked they gave it some symptoms,
- 36:23and they also gave real doctors some symptoms and asked them to try and
- 36:28diagnose, and that actually did better than the doctors did. Okay, but
- 36:30here we have to be careful too, because that may be true for medicine
- 36:35because people google a lot of medical questions. It's true. I you know,
- 36:42my field is concerned with things that are called things like unscented common filters
- 36:46and you know, discrete fur your transforms, which are not maybe as present
- 36:52in the internet corpus. Sure. So this is another really interesting sensitivity of
- 36:59the model that when you start asking for very specific information, it will straight
- 37:05up tell you wildly incorrect thing. You get what people will call variable salad.
- 37:12Sometimes if you get too deep in the weeds, if you get outside
- 37:15of things that people are googling, like bar exam questions or medical questions,
- 37:22if you get outside of things that aren't like very richly present in the training
- 37:25data, you run into trouble pretty fast with what broadly would call this hallucination.
- 37:30And it's a problem with the other kind of problem I was discussing too,
- 37:32like not only will these models give you a wrong answer, they'll give
- 37:37you wrong reasoning, or like you can ask with what's called chain of thought,
- 37:43you can say, explain your work before you give me the answer,
- 37:47okay, on some of these problems, and you will get sometimes radically wrong
- 37:52reasoning the whole way through and then an incorrect answer, or sometimes even more
- 37:57strangely, completely correct reasoning that would get you to a valid solution to a
- 38:00question, and then a wrong answer, or if you don't ask it to
- 38:06put its work first, sometimes you'll get a wrong answer and then correct reasoning
- 38:10that goes off the rails at the very last second and starts like changing the
- 38:15numbers in your original question so that it has a better statistical fit to the
- 38:20answer that it already gave you. Right, it's a probability machine. And
- 38:22I guess maybe my question to that would be because, like leading into that,
- 38:25you mentioned that in a place where the training data is rich, and
- 38:29like the source is rich, and there's a lot of like maybe consistent information
- 38:32in that space, Like it makes sense that in a medical model or an
- 38:36illegal model it could pass a bar or like a medical exam or something like
- 38:39that. But when you get into the more general space, is that an
- 38:42issue? I mean, maybe we don't know this, and I this is
- 38:45kind of where my curiosity comes in. Is that an issue where there are
- 38:50too many data inputs that it's just trying to get to a point. Is
- 38:52it an issue of there are too many pathways, or that the data or
- 38:58there's just not enough any and all of the above. There's been a paper
- 39:01in pre print that I'm going to have to find so that I can send
- 39:04it to you so that you can refer to this. Maybe, but there's
- 39:07a paper in preprint last time I checked, demonstrating that you can recover multiple
- 39:12gigabytes at a time of ver beatim text from the Internet by giving GPT chat
- 39:19GPT's particular prompt. Okay, some of what it's being trained on is recoverable
- 39:24in full form beginning to Yeah, so that's weird because that shouldn't happen.
- 39:32We would probably expect, I mean, we would probably expect if these models
- 39:37are working the way we expect them to and the way we want them to,
- 39:42that in some way information is being extracted, but we shouldn't have We
- 39:45shouldn't be wasting the model's size on just like memorizing rote information. And at
- 39:53the same time we have exactly what you're referring to, which is like a
- 39:59dearth of some subject specific information. So in some places it seems like it's
- 40:02too much where it's being what's called overtrained. In some places it seems like
- 40:06it's way too little, right, And it's kind of an open question as
- 40:09to how we reconcile that. I think this is really fascinating because it mirrors
- 40:15exactly what you would expect to happen. If you like, if you sat
- 40:20a baby down with like sat materials and had it study for thirty years and
- 40:25do nothing else. It feels like it would kind of look like that.
- 40:30Sure, yeah, that's a great metaphor. Like it'd be incredibly good at
- 40:34answering any any and all inquiries related to SAT material, and that would be
- 40:38really bad at basic logic and reasoning. It's getting better. I do need
- 40:43to add that caveat because people have started to realize that this overhang exists.
- 40:46But yeah, and then this leads us to the last really big problem,
- 40:52which is that I alluded earlier to how this there's this issue of like nonlinearity,
- 40:58right, like language, which is tricky because the output is not just
- 41:02like the sum of the inputs. The whole is not the sum of the
- 41:05parts. Yeah, right, So there are multiple ways to get an AI
- 41:10to do the same thing. A neural network can reach the same output by
- 41:15infinitely many combinations of inputs. So it's hard for that reason to work backwards
- 41:22through what the model is doing and attribute its decisions, attribute its mistakes that
- 41:27you have to do inductively. There is some work on that, because we
- 41:30can kind of peep inside the model and we can see what parts of it
- 41:34are active and what, you know, what correlates with why. And there's
- 41:37been some really cool work done too on like working backwards to find what combination
- 41:44of inputs makes GPT most likely to say girl, for example, sure,
- 41:49which it's really sad. Actually, what that combination of inputs is the things
- 41:53that we're prompt gpt to say girl are about us colored by the Internet,
- 41:59as you would spect. But that attribution is really labor intensive, really really
- 42:05hard to do. For that reason, there is in the public sector pretty
- 42:09widespread skepticism of leveraging AI to do any kind of decision making, And I
- 42:16think that's that's something we need to be aware of, is that all of
- 42:20this is a surprise even to the people doing it. Right. I remember
- 42:22seeing a story, and please forgive my ignorance on this, but I remember
- 42:27seeing a story where I forget what organization was it was, but they created
- 42:30this. It was like an AI robot that like absorbed information and started to
- 42:35learn to kind of communicate better, and it got really racist really quick,
- 42:38based on like Internet inputs. So I guess it's one of those things where
- 42:44I've seen that time and time again, where not necessarily that like robots become
- 42:47Nazis, but like that there is this conversation about like how quickly these types
- 42:52of like these types of neural networks or these these platforms or these like software
- 42:57engines or whatever it might be. They learned so quickly and they adapt so
- 43:01quickly based on the number of inputs that get put in. I don't know
- 43:05if I have a question around that, but I just found that part fascinating,
- 43:07And I guess maybe that's one of like kind of the problems with this
- 43:10stuff and why people don't trust it with decision making because it gets so easily
- 43:14influenced based on data that it receives, and we don't shame that's, like,
- 43:20we don't We don't have a way to deal with that either. Yet,
- 43:22By the way, the problem of like yeah, in general, like
- 43:27you know, being disproportionately affected by certain inputs during training is a problem.
- 43:32But the specific problem of having to deal with just the volume and the intensity
- 43:37of bigotry that exists is why we now have a version of chat GBT that
- 43:45is so equivocal and accommodating as to be totally noncommittal in some of its answers.
- 43:52Because the only way we figured around that today is to hit it with
- 43:58the fire hose who the full corpus of the Internet, and then step back
- 44:02and retrain it, like, okay, now that you have a knowledge base
- 44:07of language, there's a directed effort on retraining or what's called fine tuning,
- 44:12to be conciliatory. Right, Sure, I don't want to. I feel
- 44:16like politically correct is such a loaded term anymore to say that would insinuate maybe
- 44:21that I think this is a wrong approach, or that I think it's it's
- 44:24it's an over correction. And in the absence of a better way of going
- 44:30about this, I prefer the version of a publicly available natural language supercomputer that
- 44:36you have to try really really hard to get to be bigoted at you,
- 44:42even if it's maybe not as good of a supercomputer. Right, it just
- 44:46seems like where we're at right now, I prefer that personally. And maybe
- 44:52that's not that's not everybody. But I had a whole idea about an episode
- 44:55about that. I'm gonna leave that as the cliffhanger while these ads play.
- 45:00Though I've had this discussion, there's actually been some actual research on this,
- 45:09as well as a lot of talking points on places where their whole mission is
- 45:15to espouse misinformation or disinformation. But that a lot of these AI things are
- 45:22express a liberal bias, and what I interpret that to mean is is really
- 45:28hard to force them to be racist, and that's what I think. What
- 45:31they mean is like it will try and say, as you said, it's
- 45:35conciliatory. It's sort of a people pleaser. It's going to try and say
- 45:38as unoffensive a thing as it can possibly say. And that's what they mean
- 45:44by a left leaning bias. And I'm like, I'm not really sure what
- 45:47else they mean. I've tried to get GPT to roast my music taste and
- 45:52it won't do it. I'll do that for you if you want, I
- 45:58mean, if you want me to, I'm more than happy to. I'm
- 46:00very opinionated about music. We'll talk. I know Abraham is too, so
- 46:04we're in and I overlap a lot of music. I don't know that there's
- 46:08a factual bias. I couldn't speak to that, but I will say that,
- 46:14yeah, it's the thing is that it's and this is this is sort
- 46:17of off the beaten path, right like, irrespective of what decisions you make
- 46:22with what a robot is allowed to say, it will be interpreted as a
- 46:27signifier, right like, that's it's These things are not insulated from the morays
- 46:34of the people building them, nor should they be. It is an inherently
- 46:39political technology, because it is a technology of language, and I think language
- 46:44in many ways is inherently political. Politic I think is just discourse on a
- 46:50large scale. That's beautiful as we move into, like, you know,
- 46:54thinking about what what this does, right, Like, for the first time,
- 46:59we have thinking things that are not people that we interact with on a
- 47:02regular basis, and we have to give some consideration to what that does to
- 47:07the composition and cohesion of the societies that we live in. Right, Yeah,
- 47:13I think that's going to be a more direct consequence. And when I
- 47:17say that, like I alluded earlier on to my thinking that maybe, you
- 47:22know, the AI apocalypse that people are afraid of is sort of misconceived.
- 47:27I think what I mean by that is, I think there's a much greater
- 47:30and more immediate threat in the potential for AI to participate in shaping our preferences
- 47:37and in shaping the language we use with one another and in producing this information
- 47:43for us, than there is in like, you know, somebody plugs one
- 47:46into a bomb and blows us up. Right, The fear of the overtly
- 47:52violent and aggressive apocalypse is not necessarily, as I guess, as easy to
- 47:58get to as like let's say something more pervasive, something more subtle, something
- 48:02more psychological, or something like, you know, more insidious. I guess,
- 48:07you know, like everybody's expecting terminator and they're really looking more at like
- 48:10something almost like a virus that could possibly Like that's a more realistic concern,
- 48:15I guess. And I get I get KG about alluding to like notions of
- 48:20social cohesion because even that has become social contagion, because even that has become
- 48:25sort of loaded. But yeah, I don't. I don't have a better
- 48:30way to put that, and especially because what we have given AI some reins
- 48:35over is in serving us information and serving us entertainment. So like we talked
- 48:43about earlier, like TikTok doesn't have well, maybe they do. I couldn't.
- 48:47I couldn't say this with certainty. But my, my, my overwhelming
- 48:52impression is that TikTok does not or or does not need to have an ulterior
- 48:55motive in shape and people preferences and in radicalizing people. All that TikTok needs
- 49:02to do to achieve the end of alienating and radicalizing and compartmentalizing people is to
- 49:09prioritize engagement like Facebook. Yeah, exactly, and so Abraham. Earlier on,
- 49:16you said that when we talk about artificial intelligence, what we take artificial
- 49:21to mean is created by humans. I don't think that's a necessary qualifier.
- 49:27I think artificial. I think it's efficient to say that artificial means something other
- 49:31than biological because, in the same way that there are now concerns about stochastic
- 49:39terrorism, right people motivated to violence by the deluge of content on the Internet.
- 49:46I think stochastic intelligence. I think systems with sophisticated behavior that achieve coordination
- 49:53between people that would otherwise be really hard to achieve in the absence of intelligence
- 49:59that seems to be in the form of Facebook, for example, something that
- 50:02can kind of maybe just happen. That's a scarier thought to me, do
- 50:07it? I mean, do I still want to keep an eye on what
- 50:10kind of automation people are using artificial intelligence for let that become like an instrument
- 50:17of violence. Yeah. Absolutely, I think that's a very real risk.
- 50:21But it's not what keeps me up at night. What keeps me up at
- 50:23night is that we have machines that give us and tell us and show us
- 50:29exactly what we ask them to with a very very appealing veneer of realism.
- 50:36I don't get to do this very often. We superimpose in our shows.
- 50:40If we choose to employ a particularly high level vocabulary word or one that we
- 50:45think people might not know, we'll throw a little music thing that a transition
- 50:51to section on vocabulary, and you use the beautiful word, which is stochastic.
- 50:54So could you define stochastic for our audience please? I love the jingle.
- 51:01Stochastic is maybe my favorite word. A stochastic process is one that is
- 51:10random in its progression, but random in many different parts. So I could
- 51:16talk to you about the stochastic movement of the particles in a gas, right,
- 51:21or I could talk to you about the stochastic behavior of people using mass
- 51:28transit in New York on any given day. And so when we talk about
- 51:30stochastic things inside of engineering, we sort of discard the individual data points and
- 51:38we speak about the behavior of the ensemble and the net effects of that ensemble.
- 51:45Right. So when we allude to stochastic terrorism, what we mean is
- 51:53there's no single element that we can readily attribute accountability to for the action of
- 52:00a lone wolf terrorist who's been radicalized by the Internet or by a hate group.
- 52:07It's been the aggregate of the activity of many different people with many disparate
- 52:14interests who are not necessarily coordinating with one another. In the same way,
- 52:20AI is stochastic in its development in that it develops emergent behavior based on lots
- 52:28of tiny, little individual data points that are not necessarily correlated with one another,
- 52:32but that have a pattern in the ensemble. And potentially also we get
- 52:37stochastic behavior from large scale dynamical systems like human interactions and technological interactions between automated
- 52:46systems. And I think there is a sense in which you could describe the
- 52:52fundaments of psychology, even you could describe neurology as an essentially stochastic process,
- 52:57I mean, the firing of a neuron. Although it has in the long
- 53:00term deterministic behavior, is somewhat random. It is orderly in that it is
- 53:07a function of you know, your neurochemistry, but it is also unpredictable in
- 53:15certain ways. Lovely a great word. Yeah, it was a great one.
- 53:17That was a really uh that was a very well explained teaching moment for
- 53:22that word. And I appreciate that. I adore that word. I think
- 53:25is the single most beautiful thing to have come out of my education. Wow,
- 53:31understanding stochasticity is such a powerful tool for at least for me, it
- 53:37was a very powerful tool for breaking out of the lens of everything that befalls
- 53:43you being a matter of intention. Okay, sure, I like that.
- 53:46Yeah, it's a path path forward in the interest of time. I think,
- 53:52no, no, this is really fun and I'm really enjoying this.
- 53:53But I would like to get to a discussion on U on the big the
- 53:58big worry, and I think one very so related to generally psychology and maybe
- 54:02more specifically human behavior science, as whether AI can become sentient or conscious.
- 54:09And we've done an episode of consciousness, and I believe we even replayed that
- 54:13as a nostalg We do what we call nostalgic episodes for episodes that are five
- 54:17or more years older, and we replay them in their entirety and then add
- 54:22a little new information to it, and I think we did that recently with
- 54:24consciousness. And we've also we haven't replayed these yet, but we did a
- 54:28three part series on intelligence years ago, and so I think we've we've done
- 54:31a little bit of legwork there. But let's talk about whether or not these
- 54:36machines are conscious or could be conscious and or sentient, and how people fear
- 54:40that in the pre role you mentioned to me the Google scientists who recently espout
- 54:47his opinion that Google's Bard model is sentient on the basis of a conversation that
- 54:52he had, right, I will submit that I think the claims of a
- 54:57language model are insufficient as evidence for anything in and of themselves, because,
- 55:05like I said to you at that time, you could very easily prompt Bard
- 55:08to give you an equally compelling argument that it is a squirrel. Right,
- 55:13So like I hope we can agree that to begin with, that's not that's
- 55:17not going to be satisfactory to us. I would agree with that you would
- 55:21be maybe maybe kind of poor behaviorists if it were. You know, I'm
- 55:29I don't think I have a sufficiently clear picture of consciousness, even with the
- 55:32benefit of having talked to you about this before, Abraham, I don't think
- 55:37I have a sufficiently clear picture of what people mean when they say that to
- 55:42answer the question of whether a thing is conscious, And if I wanted to
- 55:45be really radical about it, I mean I could take umbrage with the notion
- 55:51of consciousness as something that distinguishes humans from non humans at all, Like,
- 55:57is this equality that actually exists or is this a name that we give to
- 56:00a particular set of emergent behaviors. I will say that certain thinks things that
- 56:06we almost unanimously consider relevant to consciousness, such as a continuity of experience,
- 56:12are not features of an AI model. In general, chat GPT does not
- 56:17and cannot perceive anything that is outside of the current text that you're sharing with
- 56:25it, and it does not change in any way right like much much like
- 56:30human neurology, The way that these models learn is that they change structurally,
- 56:37except that that change is bounded there is in generally period of training, and
- 56:42then the models is what we call frozen. So it is as though I
- 56:46take a picture of all of your synapses, the potentiation of every neuron in
- 56:51your body, and I say, none of that is allowed to change anymore.
- 56:54Does that mean I don't get older in a sense? Yeah, I
- 56:59mean it would mean that you have no knowledge of events outside of what you
- 57:07learned prior to that point and what is immediately available to you. I think
- 57:13continuity of experience tends to be pretty important. We are not all talking to
- 57:16the same chat GPT when we do. We are talking to many different instances
- 57:22of chat GPT as it was on a particular date. I do not,
- 57:27however, rule out the possibility that there will one day be I think there
- 57:34it is very philosophically and technically feasible for there to exist a neural network that
- 57:40exhibits sufficiently many behaviors that are subjectively relevant to a definition of consciousness to satisfy
- 57:46anyone, And at that time we'll have to have the discussion about there will
- 57:52no longer be any putting it off as I am, as I often do,
- 57:58will have to have the discussion about whether whether there is such a thing
- 58:00as consciousness and what it is, and whether it is meaningfully distinct between how
- 58:05we exhibit it and how machines exhibit it. But for the time being,
- 58:08that's why I'm really attached to this pet idea I have that psychologists' behaviorists are
- 58:20the people most needed in the examination of what AI can do and what it
- 58:23is. For my part and for many of my colleagues, what we look
- 58:30at as implementation, and what we look at is provable behavior. We look
- 58:32at the specification of the balance of a model, and we don't do very
- 58:39much with studying empirically after the paper is done, there's an opportunity there,
- 58:46There is an opportunity to study what kinds of emergent capabilities we can get out
- 58:52of a machine, and maybe even that elucidates the boundaries around consciousness. Maybe
- 58:55within that we discover something that seems hard to replicate, impossible to replicate,
- 59:00and that we can point to with some justification and say is a definition of
- 59:06cynthias. I think you said very beautifully what many what have heard people say
- 59:10that I think identify the problem with consciousness and and how and to the extent
- 59:17to which it may be applied to something like AI, which is what do
- 59:22people mean when they say conscious regardless of what they're talking about? Right,
- 59:25the thing that we've talked about in those episodes is nobody's agreed on that yet.
- 59:29And I'm sort of like it's sort of like free will, and like,
- 59:31well, depends on how you define it. You want to define it
- 59:34in a way that encompasses all these things, then sure we've got free will.
- 59:36If you wanted to find it in a way that doesn't encompass those things,
- 59:38then no, I think we all agree we don't have free will,
- 59:40and consciousness is the same thing. And I think you also said something really
- 59:45important is is this something that is unique and importance to humans? Is this
- 59:50a feature of life? Is it a feature of a brain? Is this
- 59:53a like? Is it actually a thing? What do people mean when they
- 59:58say it? And what it applied to? Something like robots? But then
- 1:00:01the important thing there is could it emulate behavior similar enough to what we do
- 1:00:07in such a way that we would then say that looks like consciousness? And
- 1:00:12I think to your as you said, like absolutely it could. I think
- 1:00:15that even with what exists, if you give it a sufficiently correct well,
- 1:00:22it would need the opportunity to I think, generate without a prompt. But
- 1:00:25if it could do that, I believe you could. You could program it
- 1:00:29carefully enough that with a very specific instance, you could get something that looks
- 1:00:32indistinguishable from human behavior for a moment, for fleeting moment, and it probably
- 1:00:37it probably will get more sophisticated to the point where the distinction will become increasingly
- 1:00:43vague. But I also don't know that that matters a lot for the AI
- 1:00:49apocalypse or concern over much. I don't think that computers would care about humans
- 1:00:57if they became so self aware that they were concerned about their own existence.
- 1:01:00We don't really pose much of a threat to them, and we aren't hogging
- 1:01:04the resources that they need, well until the butlerry and jihad, and then
- 1:01:07we have to worry about all of that and then have to guild navigators to
- 1:01:12get us through fold space to Aracus for the spice. I didn't expect the
- 1:01:17dune that I woke up today. I am full of multitudes, my friend,
- 1:01:22full of multitudes. It's a question of how well specified our relationship to
- 1:01:30artificial intelligences, and how well specified the goals of a given model are the
- 1:01:35goalposts, I will say, move all the time. The touring test was
- 1:01:38proposed going on one hundred years ago now, and we have now reached the
- 1:01:45point where machines can generate language that is, in context indistinguishable from human speech.
- 1:01:51I mentioned earlier that sometimes the simplest, easiest way to seem correct is
- 1:01:55to be correct. The simplest way to seem like you understand something is to
- 1:01:59understand something. And I don't know what it means when we get to a
- 1:02:02point where a machine does, even for a fleeting moment, produce something indistinguishable
- 1:02:07from human behavior, Because what if the simplest way to have the overt similarity
- 1:02:13is to have a similarity in certain covert properties of that system. For that
- 1:02:16matter, that's the only way. That's the only reason I have to believe
- 1:02:19that we all share in something called consciousness, is that you behave similarly enough
- 1:02:22to me that I can recognize in your actions motivations for similar actions that I
- 1:02:28would take. I can understand why you would do what you do and why
- 1:02:32you would say what you say. It seems similar to me, and I
- 1:02:37know that I have a continuity of experience, and I know that I have
- 1:02:40a perspective and an awareness of myself and what distinguishes it from my surroundings.
- 1:02:45That recognition is the only evidence that I have that we are in any way
- 1:02:50similar. And I don't have a compelling reason to deny that recognition to something
- 1:02:54that is not a human being. I don't have any compelling reason to deny
- 1:02:59it to another great ape, or to an octopus, or to a computer.
- 1:03:02I like it. Well, this has been so much fun, and
- 1:03:06I feel like we should We should do this again sometime and continue having this
- 1:03:09discussion about sort of how a consciousness and sendience applies to computers. I think
- 1:03:14we didn't even really get to some of the more of the specific pitfalls and
- 1:03:16benefits that the AI may have. I splattered a whole long outline all over
- 1:03:22the page, the most of it. You know what I will, I
- 1:03:28will gladly return anytime you'll have me. I'll gladly come and stand on my
- 1:03:31soapbox. And I would love to listen to more of your thoughts. Well,
- 1:03:36great, this has been so much fun. Yeah, I do like
- 1:03:38to I've pontificated about in the past about the relative standing of part of what
- 1:03:46creates the human experience that I think is worthy of further discussion and in line
- 1:03:51with you know, the things that you've talked about that Shane's brought up as
- 1:03:53well, and how we even think about what it would mean for something to
- 1:03:58be conscious when it doesn't even have a central point in space, which is
- 1:04:02something that is uniquely situated to all other biological organisms and even non biological organisms
- 1:04:08as they are situated at a point in space, and AI is not really
- 1:04:13bound by that in a similar way it is in the sense that is on
- 1:04:16the same planet, but that could change and not that long so that I
- 1:04:21think would be something worth talking about. Anyway, as we wrap this up,
- 1:04:25we like to give some recommendations. They are often unrelated to our topic,
- 1:04:29but it can certainly be related to our topic. And so what I'll
- 1:04:32do is I'll do a quick read through our credits here and then if you
- 1:04:36have something you'd like to recommend, if you'd like to take a second to
- 1:04:40think about it, I'll be able to just go through these the necessary information
- 1:04:44that everybody must know, which includes the fact that if you would like to
- 1:04:47support us, as I mentioned at the top of this episode, you can
- 1:04:49pick up some merch you can join us on Patreon. If you do join
- 1:04:53us on Patreon, you get some extra benefits like ad free episodes, early
- 1:04:56access to episodes, behind the scenes content, etc. And we just you
- 1:04:59also get our adoration and love of you for so long as long as you
- 1:05:02keep being a generous, kind person who joins us. And honestly, you
- 1:05:05know, we appreciate all the people who have ever joined us. There The
- 1:05:09current list of people includes Mike, m Megan, Leyla, Mike t,
- 1:05:13Justin, Kim, Joshua, Brad, Stephanie, Olivia, Brian and Ashley.
- 1:05:16Thank you all so much for your continued support. Thank you everybody for
- 1:05:19listening. Thank you, of course for our guest Joseph Daily for joining us
- 1:05:23on this episode today. And then if you would like to reach out to
- 1:05:26us and talk to us about your thoughts about AI, we certainly would enjoy
- 1:05:29hearing from you. You can email us directly at info at wwdwwdpodcast dot com.
- 1:05:34You can also reach out to us on the social media platforms as I
- 1:05:38said, like in subscribe, tell a friends, do all the fun stuff.
- 1:05:40Is there anything that I'm missing, Shane, or that you'd like to
- 1:05:43add? Oh? Well, hold on, Before I do that, I
- 1:05:45do need to thank some more people because I've got a team of people who
- 1:05:47helped makes this that makes this podcast happen. One of them is Shane so
- 1:05:51writing in fact checking from Shane myself, Thanks for recording with me today Shane,
- 1:05:56Music and editing and production from Justin. And then our social media coordinator
- 1:06:00is Emma Wilson. Now, Shane, is there anything that I missed or
- 1:06:02that you'd like to add before we get to our recommendations. I think I'd
- 1:06:05just like to put a pin in talking about Asmov's laws of robotics. It's
- 1:06:10a short time Yeah, we missed that. I think that's for a part
- 1:06:13two. I want to make sure that we hit on that part. Yeah,
- 1:06:15if a robot cuts down a tree, that seems harmless enough in and
- 1:06:19of itself, but if it falls across a freeway, does it know that
- 1:06:21that's a problem. Let's talk about our recommendations. Then recommendations. I'll go
- 1:06:35first because mine is kind of a I usually recommend a movie or a TV
- 1:06:39show, or a book, or more often than not, a game.
- 1:06:42But today I'm going to recommend that people go on hike, find a nice
- 1:06:45park or a nice mountain or to climb or something, and just to go
- 1:06:48out in nature. Experience the cold, wonderful world around you if you're in
- 1:06:51the Northern Hemisphere, or the beautiful balmy summer that has added to zenith if
- 1:06:56you're in the Southern hemisphere. But you know, just get on the nature.
- 1:07:00That's my recommendation. There's definitely a difference between asking somebody to go on
- 1:07:02a hike versus telling somebody to take a hike, which I feel like is
- 1:07:06a really unique like language thing to be like, go on a hike versus
- 1:07:11take a hike, Like it's it's kind of mean to tell somebody to go
- 1:07:14do extra work if they don't want to. Let's appropriate that in order to
- 1:07:15make it make it mean nice things. Again. Well, I always like,
- 1:07:19I always like those insults that are like old insults, like get lost,
- 1:07:23which is like just like inherently mean, and just tell somebody to go
- 1:07:26somewhere where they don't know where they are and and nobody else knows where they
- 1:07:30are. Like that in itself is just kind of mean, cruel. Anyway,
- 1:07:32we're gonna take it back. So my recommendation this week is scheduling time
- 1:07:36to write. So I a few years ago, I'd read a book by
- 1:07:40Questlove. It was called a Creative Quest, and it talked about like different
- 1:07:43ways to stay creative. And one of the things he just said, wash
- 1:07:46do it even if it doesn't like make sense or it's you're not motivated,
- 1:07:50just so you can kind of continue to grease the wheels a little bit.
- 1:07:55This year for twenty twenty four, I'm gonna take some more time to schedule
- 1:07:58time to write, because right now it looks like I've got one, two,
- 1:08:01three, four or five six six kind of book projects in the works
- 1:08:05and about seven articles that I'm in the process of writing. So based on
- 1:08:11necessity, I've got a schedule time to write, but I really enjoy writing,
- 1:08:15and I think if you like that type of thing, schedule some time
- 1:08:17to do it every day and it'll be nice and easy. There's a book
- 1:08:21by Paul Silvia called How to Write a Lot, and that is essentially his
- 1:08:25thesis as well. Yeah, a very funny book. Also, Joey,
- 1:08:29do you have a recommendation you'd like to share with folks? I guess in
- 1:08:31the spirit of our you know, enjoy life, self improvement New Year's the
- 1:08:36recommendations. I would like to encourage everybody to take a second and listen to
- 1:08:42your body and take a good stretch, because I have done far too little
- 1:08:45of that as I've been glued to my chair trying to write a thesis this
- 1:08:51fast year, and it's a really wonderful thing. And so yeah, just
- 1:08:56take a second, be kind to yourself. Whatever that means to you,
- 1:09:00I promise it's worth it. Well, I love that. All right,
- 1:09:03Well, this has been a really fun conversation. As we said, we
- 1:09:05must return at some point. We have so much more to talk about,
- 1:09:09but this I think that I'll do it for today. Thank you. Again
- 1:09:11for joining us. Anything you'd like to add before WED I hear Shane not
- 1:09:15on my end? Cool? Well, thanks again, Joey anytime. All
- 1:09:16right, This is Apraham, this is Shane. We're out, Seya.
- 1:09:20You've been listening to Why We Do What We Do. You can learn more
- 1:09:24about this and other episodes by going to WWDWWD podcast dot com. Thanks for
- 1:09:30listening, and we hope you have an awesome day