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NCAAB + NBA Best Bets Tuesday 2/10/26 · Toadstool Sports

0:00
Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
0:05
Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
0:08
Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
0:11
Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
0:14
Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
0:17
Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
0:19
Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
0:24
Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
0:27
Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
0:33
Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
0:37
Speaker 1: reached a new pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my
0:40
Speaker 1: browins hat Man, I don't know what is going on
0:43
Speaker 1: with the bruins arch haape? Is that what it is?
0:46
Speaker 1: I don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think
0:49
Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
0:52
Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
0:54
Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
0:58
Speaker 1: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
1:02
Speaker 1: I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday
1:06
Speaker 1: it did not go well for me. Own five. The
1:09
Speaker 1: worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen years
1:12
Speaker 1: doing this. I don't know what to even tell you
1:14
Speaker 1: about this anymore. Slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
1:20
Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what
1:24
Speaker 1: I should do at this point other than potentially end
1:27
Speaker 1: it all. What's up, everybody, it's towed back with you
1:34
Speaker 1: with toadstool Sports. Oh oh no, I was gonna say,
1:38
Speaker 1: it's my mic not working. I don't have the monitor.
1:40
Speaker 1: Looked like it wasn't working for on stream right there anyway, Yes,
1:43
Speaker 1: what's up everybody? It is early, so I'm way out
1:46
Speaker 1: of it right now. I have hair on my shirt. Yeah,
1:50
Speaker 1: this is awesome. A hair shirt. O don't know. Wait,
1:52
Speaker 1: that's a I'm Italian, but my chest is not that hairy. Anyway.
1:56
Speaker 1: We went one to one and one on the show yesterday.
1:59
Speaker 1: I'm not happy that added Bucknell during the show. That
2:02
Speaker 1: was a loser. I don't know what to say about it.
2:06
Speaker 1: I thought it was the right handicap, but that was bad.
2:09
Speaker 1: North Alabama absolutely should have been a win, and hopefully
2:12
Speaker 1: people did find a seven on that, maybe even pay
2:15
Speaker 1: a little bit extra to get it because it mattered,
2:17
Speaker 1: and that one it landed right on seven. I know
2:20
Speaker 1: there were six and a half's out there. I had
2:23
Speaker 1: it at seven on the show. That's what it was
2:25
Speaker 1: when I gave it out. That never should have been
2:29
Speaker 1: a push or a loss. I mean, it was ridiculous.
2:31
Speaker 1: North Alabama was winning I think the majority of the
2:34
Speaker 1: game outright. They still had an outright lead with less
2:37
Speaker 1: than ten minutes to go, and then I think the
2:40
Speaker 1: probably the only point where they weren't covering that number
2:43
Speaker 1: was the final score. It's just ridiculous. I think they
2:47
Speaker 1: fouled again at the end, which is what put it
2:49
Speaker 1: to seven. After it looked like they were right in
2:51
Speaker 1: that game, it was gonna be a close finish, and
2:53
Speaker 1: then all of a sudden, oh no, they're down five.
2:56
Speaker 1: A couple seconds left, they foul one more time. It's
2:59
Speaker 1: just so bad, a dude, it is so bad. That
3:02
Speaker 1: should have absolutely been a cover. And then I added
3:04
Speaker 1: Portland late as well, the Trailblazers, and they had an
3:07
Speaker 1: easy blowout when with a really excellent second half, they
3:11
Speaker 1: were down one I think at halftime, after they were
3:13
Speaker 1: down more than that in the middle of the first half.
3:16
Speaker 1: They really turned it on in the second half, which
3:19
Speaker 1: you can kind of see why that was the case.
3:21
Speaker 1: I mean it was part of the handicap that who
3:23
Speaker 1: are they playing? I don't remember who are they playing again?
3:25
Speaker 1: Oh the Sixers. Yeah, that the Sixers would be looking
3:27
Speaker 1: ahead to their game against the Knicks. So we're gonna
3:31
Speaker 1: have some look ahead spots involved today. We're gonna have
3:34
Speaker 1: two college basketball players, one NBA play. The college basketball
3:37
Speaker 1: players are in big games too, so big conference games
3:41
Speaker 1: at least, and they're both kind of utilizing the same game,
3:45
Speaker 1: opposite ends of the same game. If that makes sense,
3:49
Speaker 1: let's do it. Let's get into it. By the way,
3:53
Speaker 1: I did mention last time in my bracketology show, thanks
3:55
Speaker 1: for the people who hung out for that. Really just
3:58
Speaker 1: charles and then dirty sock end of it. I did
4:01
Speaker 1: mention this is gonna be early because I gotta go
4:02
Speaker 1: to a doctor's appointment. If I can get this done
4:05
Speaker 1: reasonably quick, then I'll have some time left too, so
4:08
Speaker 1: that'll be all right. I'll be able to to relax
4:11
Speaker 1: for a little while longer. Yeah, it's not a huge
4:14
Speaker 1: board today, so I think we can do that. NBA
4:16
Speaker 1: board tomorrow is massive men's college basketball here. We do
4:21
Speaker 1: have one isolated game is six thirty at PM between
4:24
Speaker 1: Milwaukee and IU Indy in the Horizon League. This game
4:28
Speaker 1: doesn't do anything for me. Milwaukee did beat IU Indy
4:32
Speaker 1: at home already by twelve. I presume they covered this number,
4:36
Speaker 1: but I don't even know, because IU Indy is not good. Yeah,
4:38
Speaker 1: eight and a half was the number in that one.
4:41
Speaker 1: So there is the potential that Milwaukee could overlook them.
4:44
Speaker 1: But do you really overlook anybody when you've lost four
4:47
Speaker 1: games in a row. I don't know. I mean, they're
4:49
Speaker 1: coming up a bigger game against Northern Kentucky. They do
4:51
Speaker 1: have Green Bay Necks. IU Indy just got to win
4:54
Speaker 1: over ridiculously overperforming Cleveland State team. Cleveland's state, by the way,
5:00
Speaker 1: I think in their win over whoever they played prior
5:03
Speaker 1: to this last game against IU Indy, Cleveland State, they
5:06
Speaker 1: beat Oakland. I think Cleveland State their gym is so
5:11
Speaker 1: bad that like power went out in their gym, so
5:14
Speaker 1: they had to switch gyms to their like shittier older
5:17
Speaker 1: gym that's still there on campus. It is ridiculous, man,
5:21
Speaker 1: This Cleveland State team is not good whatsoever. And IU
5:25
Speaker 1: Indy did get the win to end their streak there.
5:29
Speaker 1: I don't know. If IU Indy is gonna consider that
5:31
Speaker 1: to be a big winner. Not they'll probably show up
5:33
Speaker 1: for this game. They're pretty much playing out the stretch.
5:36
Speaker 1: They're a bad team. Well, they do play fast. Milwaukee
5:40
Speaker 1: is gone from a pick them to one point favorite.
5:42
Speaker 1: I'd probably lean eye you Indy in that one, but
5:44
Speaker 1: I have no opinion on that, really, SCPU. What's up, man? Oh?
5:51
Speaker 1: Shut the punk up? Yes, that's right. What's up? Man? Ben?
5:55
Speaker 1: Is that you? What's going on? Man? Israel? Israel is
6:01
Speaker 1: killing all the patriots in the United States. That is correct.
6:07
Speaker 1: Purdue in Nebraska a huge game up at seven pm
6:10
Speaker 1: on Fox Sports one, number thirteen per due number seven Nebraska.
6:15
Speaker 1: I see no reason that both teams won't show up
6:17
Speaker 1: for this. It's gonna be a bit of a uh well,
6:20
Speaker 1: I don't want I don't want to say it's a
6:22
Speaker 1: pacing contrast because it's not. Because I'm used to Nebraska
6:25
Speaker 1: playing fast, but I don't think they do this year.
6:27
Speaker 1: They both play slow. We're looking at Nebraska having the
6:30
Speaker 1: better defense in this one versus the better offense on
6:34
Speaker 1: the Purdue side. Purdue, they've kind of been struggling as
6:38
Speaker 1: of late. They're coming out of a really ugly game
6:40
Speaker 1: where they barely got by Oregon. It's nineteen and a
6:42
Speaker 1: half point favorites. Probably they were looking ahead, and a
6:45
Speaker 1: lot of times when you have a game like that,
6:47
Speaker 1: you're gonna be ultra focus in the next game. But
6:49
Speaker 1: it is still a third road game in four games
6:51
Speaker 1: for them. It's not gonna be easy. Nebraska. They kind
6:56
Speaker 1: of righted the ship with that easy win at Rutgers.
6:59
Speaker 1: They come back home, you know they're not going to
7:00
Speaker 1: overlook Purdue. So this game, there isn't really a situational
7:04
Speaker 1: aspect of it that I really can latch onto here.
7:08
Speaker 1: Nebraska's not up from one point favorite to one and
7:10
Speaker 1: a half point favorite. I like the better defense typically,
7:14
Speaker 1: so I guess I will lean Nebraska in this game.
7:17
Speaker 1: But I do not have a strong opinion there at all.
7:19
Speaker 1: And interestingly, though the odds makers, well the one caveat
7:24
Speaker 1: to that though, like, maybe I shouldn't be leaning that way,
7:26
Speaker 1: because the other issue here is that the rankings makers
7:30
Speaker 1: are not telling you the same thing as the odds makers.
7:32
Speaker 1: The rankings makers are telling you they have Nebraska as
7:35
Speaker 1: the better team. The odds makers are telling you the
7:37
Speaker 1: inverse is true, that they have Purdue is the better team.
7:41
Speaker 1: Ken Bum also I believe does, but only by two
7:44
Speaker 1: ranking spots. So I don't know. But the rankings makers
7:47
Speaker 1: are off on this game. So it almost looks too
7:49
Speaker 1: easy to play Nebraska, like basically just picking them to
7:53
Speaker 1: win the game. Oh, the home team that has the
7:54
Speaker 1: better UH ranking. You know, Purdue looking awful in that
7:59
Speaker 1: game against Org And I don't know, now that I'm
8:00
Speaker 1: wrapping my head around this MORM, maybe I don't even
8:02
Speaker 1: agree with Nebraska. To be honest, I don't know. I
8:05
Speaker 1: still worry about Purdue having all these road games, though
8:09
Speaker 1: I'm back and forth on that game. You can tell
8:10
Speaker 1: why I don't want to have it on my card
8:12
Speaker 1: in any capacity. You know what, I'll change my mind.
8:18
Speaker 1: I'll need to Purdue in that game because I just
8:21
Speaker 1: think the rankings are just way off. All Right. The
8:23
Speaker 1: ESPN game next up. This is gonna be one best bet.
8:26
Speaker 1: Let's do this. This one is just so obvious, it's
8:29
Speaker 1: so easy. Miami plus one is the first play up here.
8:35
Speaker 1: We're gonna fade North Carolina ranked eleventh in the country,
8:39
Speaker 1: and I know on my bracketology last night I said
8:41
Speaker 1: I don't even think they're really a top thirty team.
8:44
Speaker 1: Ken bumb has moved them up to twenty fifth based
8:47
Speaker 1: on his analytics. I don't even know if they're that good,
8:49
Speaker 1: but certainly at eleven, they're way over ranked right now,
8:53
Speaker 1: and people are gonna think they're awesome because of what
8:56
Speaker 1: they just did, which is they beat Duke home. That
9:00
Speaker 1: was a monster win for them. I think they stormed
9:03
Speaker 1: the court twice because they stormed the court on that
9:06
Speaker 1: game winning three, but there were like zero point three
9:08
Speaker 1: seconds point four seconds left on the clock, so they
9:11
Speaker 1: had to get everybody off the court and nope, you
9:13
Speaker 1: got to officially inbound the ball get that last playoff. Duke,
9:18
Speaker 1: of course, didn't do anything. I think in fact, they
9:20
Speaker 1: turned the ball over. Didn't matter. They weren't gonna hit
9:23
Speaker 1: a three anyway to try to tie that thing back
9:25
Speaker 1: up North Carolina one. The court was restormed probably whatever
9:29
Speaker 1: it was. I think that was the case. I had
9:31
Speaker 1: it on right over here. Huge win for North Carolina.
9:35
Speaker 1: I think this is a pretty obvious letdown spot here. Unfortunately,
9:37
Speaker 1: they do not have a big game up next. I
9:39
Speaker 1: wish they had this NC State game coming right up next.
9:42
Speaker 1: Then did be in a North Carolina sandwich a barbecue
9:47
Speaker 1: pulled pork sandwich. But the good thing about this is
9:50
Speaker 1: Miami is Miami's got a winnable game here against North Carolina.
9:54
Speaker 1: Miami needs to pad their tournament resume more than North
9:58
Speaker 1: Carolina does, so they may have more effort in this
10:01
Speaker 1: game because they're right on the bubble in the tournament
10:04
Speaker 1: and they're coming off of a lackluster game against Boston College.
10:07
Speaker 1: It was a weird spot where they had to go
10:09
Speaker 1: up to BC, up into the cold to play this
10:12
Speaker 1: awful BC Eagles team. I'm sure Miami was not excited
10:16
Speaker 1: about that. They won and didn't cover. They came close
10:19
Speaker 1: to losing the game. As eight and a half boys favorites,
10:22
Speaker 1: and I talk about when a favorite like that doesn't
10:25
Speaker 1: do well in a game, they usually refocus and do
10:27
Speaker 1: better in the next game. They probably just didn't even
10:29
Speaker 1: care about this game, to be honest. The travel spot
10:32
Speaker 1: going up there not something Miami really wanted to do, probably,
10:36
Speaker 1: and they had this huge game on deck with North Carolina.
10:39
Speaker 1: So again, I think they almost completely got caught. But
10:42
Speaker 1: they did sort of get caught playing a bad game.
10:45
Speaker 1: They almost lost. BC was within four points late in
10:48
Speaker 1: the game, Miami just took a scare UNC in a
10:53
Speaker 1: major letdown spot. We'll play Miami. Let me see it.
10:57
Speaker 1: What are we looking at here? I mean, got an
10:58
Speaker 1: overrated UNC team here as well, down from UNC is
11:02
Speaker 1: down from minus one and a half to minus one.
11:04
Speaker 1: I think you'd still get Miami as the underdog here.
11:07
Speaker 1: That is what we're gonna do. Miami is the first
11:10
Speaker 1: play here. Looking at ken Bom real quick, Yeah, he
11:12
Speaker 1: has North Carolina at twenty fifth as them as a
11:15
Speaker 1: lucky team, sixty third in luck. Not much else to see,
11:19
Speaker 1: although he does have Miami as the better defense, so
11:22
Speaker 1: we do like that too, the better defense at home
11:25
Speaker 1: getting any sort of points. That's an angle I like
11:27
Speaker 1: as well. The teams are similar in tempo, a little
11:31
Speaker 1: bit on the faster side, so that doesn't really matter.
11:33
Speaker 1: Miami much much less lucky than UNC though, at two
11:37
Speaker 1: ten in Lucky index according to ken Bump, so they
11:40
Speaker 1: have actually underperformed while North Carolina is overperformed. He's got
11:44
Speaker 1: them only separated by sixteen ranking spots, which doesn't tell
11:49
Speaker 1: you everything, but it does tell you these teams are
11:51
Speaker 1: not separated by that much. So Miami is definitely the
11:55
Speaker 1: play in that one, Kyle, Yes, what's up, man? Yeah,
12:00
Speaker 1: I have a doctor's appointment. Had to start early trying
12:03
Speaker 1: to get this thing done, and hopefully we'll have some
12:05
Speaker 1: time left as well. Hopefully I have some time left.
12:08
Speaker 1: I mean Number fifteen Virginia at Florida State ESPNU seven PM.
12:15
Speaker 1: Don't have a good feel for this one, Virginia. I'm
12:19
Speaker 1: not sold on them being as good as they look,
12:21
Speaker 1: as good as their ranking might suggest. They've had a
12:23
Speaker 1: pretty easy schedule this year, and really when they stepped
12:27
Speaker 1: up in class, they really haven't done that well. Except
12:29
Speaker 1: they did get a nice road win at Louisville, But like,
12:31
Speaker 1: what are the other big wins? I guess on the
12:33
Speaker 1: road against SMU at NC state's pretty good as well,
12:37
Speaker 1: But I don't know. They have a loss in North Carolina,
12:39
Speaker 1: and they're a loss at Virginia Tech. You know they
12:43
Speaker 1: beat Texas on the road. Fine, that's pretty good. Yeah,
12:47
Speaker 1: I don't know. Virginia, they have not had the most
12:49
Speaker 1: difficult schedule. Let's say they're going back on the road here,
12:52
Speaker 1: coming off a few wins in a row. They're playing
12:54
Speaker 1: a Florida State team. It's way down that people might
12:57
Speaker 1: not be totally paying attention to here blow five hundred team.
13:00
Speaker 1: They got Ohio State on deck, which is gonna be
13:03
Speaker 1: in the ACC Big Ten Challenge. There is the potential
13:08
Speaker 1: for maybe a look ahead there if you're playing like
13:09
Speaker 1: a name team like that. Maybe. Although Florida State does
13:13
Speaker 1: have a name for themselves in college basketball, they just
13:15
Speaker 1: haven't been good at all recently. But they're on a
13:18
Speaker 1: nice three game win streak here, beating both California teams
13:22
Speaker 1: at home though, so the California team's just not familiar
13:25
Speaker 1: with that environment probably, and then and Florida State was
13:27
Speaker 1: actually favored in both games. And then they beat Notre
13:30
Speaker 1: Dame on the road. I assume a small underdog in
13:34
Speaker 1: their last one. Now they're against Virginia here. Let me
13:37
Speaker 1: just double check that. Yeah, they're only one and a
13:40
Speaker 1: half point underdog, but yes, yeah, I mean I don't
13:45
Speaker 1: have much on this. Virginia is up from seven and
13:46
Speaker 1: a half to eight. I'd probably lean towards taking the
13:49
Speaker 1: points of Florida State. Of Virginia also likes to play slow,
13:53
Speaker 1: of course, but they are still a balanced team like
13:55
Speaker 1: they I think we think about them as like a
13:57
Speaker 1: defensive team, which they are, but they do play pretty
14:01
Speaker 1: efficient offense this year or two, but they do play
14:04
Speaker 1: slow and Florida State's gonna try to speed this thing
14:07
Speaker 1: way up, so it is a pacing collision year. So
14:10
Speaker 1: some of them might come down to which team can
14:12
Speaker 1: control the pace, but it'll probably be Virginia because they're
14:15
Speaker 1: the better team and it's easier to slow the game
14:18
Speaker 1: down than to speed it up. Even though the total
14:22
Speaker 1: is kind of in the middle there in the one fifties,
14:24
Speaker 1: addsmakers are not really knowing which way it's gonna go,
14:26
Speaker 1: I guess, but if the game is gonna be slow,
14:29
Speaker 1: it might be difficult for Virginia to actually cover a
14:31
Speaker 1: number like that on the road. So no strong opinion there.
14:37
Speaker 1: SEC Network seven PM. We have an example of an
14:41
Speaker 1: unranked favorite against a ranked underdog here with number nineteen
14:46
Speaker 1: Vandy at Auburn. I don't know if I buy it
14:50
Speaker 1: looking at the rankings here, Ken BOMs Vandy is the
14:53
Speaker 1: better team. He's got the fourteenth, Auburn thirtieth. I believe
14:56
Speaker 1: he has this game being a one point game. So
14:58
Speaker 1: why is Auburn laying four points here? Now? I mean
15:03
Speaker 1: that's something you got to take notice of. And I
15:04
Speaker 1: know there are a lot of professional betters that'll see
15:07
Speaker 1: that and want to hammer the unranked favorite. Although it
15:09
Speaker 1: hasn't worked out as well this year as it has
15:11
Speaker 1: in years past. The oddsmakers know about this and they
15:14
Speaker 1: skew the number for that reason. But I think the
15:16
Speaker 1: other reason they're doing it is because Vanderbilt does have
15:19
Speaker 1: some injuries right now to a couple of their starters
15:22
Speaker 1: and then concluding their second best score. So that is
15:25
Speaker 1: the concern with Vandy. But I like Vandy in this game, man,
15:29
Speaker 1: I think they'll probably win the game. To be honest,
15:32
Speaker 1: Vandy is coming up just a disgusting loss to Oklahoma.
15:35
Speaker 1: Vandy were double digit favorites in that game. I'm pretty sure.
15:39
Speaker 1: At home I talk about this. When a team's a
15:41
Speaker 1: big favorite and they lose like that, they'll be pretty angry.
15:44
Speaker 1: In the next game. Usually they will be focused. I
15:46
Speaker 1: know they do have Texas A and M on deck.
15:49
Speaker 1: Maybe that's a bigger game because they're above Vandy and
15:53
Speaker 1: the standings A and M starting to fall down. Like
15:56
Speaker 1: I said, they're not actually the best team in the SEC.
15:58
Speaker 1: But a bad loss like Vandy just did, I expect
16:02
Speaker 1: that they will show up in this game. Auburn does
16:05
Speaker 1: have motivation here because they're trying to get a tournament spot. Still,
16:08
Speaker 1: they're a bubble team, but they're coming off their major
16:11
Speaker 1: rivalry game against Alabama and they almost beat Alabama. Yeah,
16:15
Speaker 1: they're gonna get up for a game against Vandy two
16:17
Speaker 1: if they can, but they're gonna have to do that
16:19
Speaker 1: two games in a row. They're coming off this huge game,
16:22
Speaker 1: whereas Vandy's coming off a disgusting loss, is a huge favorite.
16:26
Speaker 1: So that situation will set up. I would have to
16:27
Speaker 1: lean to Vandy. I would take the points, but it
16:31
Speaker 1: is not going to be one that's on my card.
16:34
Speaker 1: A few things going on in that game that I
16:36
Speaker 1: don't know. I get some mixed signals on that game.
16:41
Speaker 1: ESPN two seven PM. Number twenty two BYU at Baylor. BYU,
16:47
Speaker 1: I mean they've lost four games in a row. Whatever,
16:49
Speaker 1: they've plummeted down in the rank games. Although ken Bomb
16:51
Speaker 1: actually does have them as number twenty two as well,
16:55
Speaker 1: Baylor is still considered to be a tournament bubble team
16:58
Speaker 1: as bad as their record, although I don't think they're
17:01
Speaker 1: that good. Where does ken bomb have them because said
17:04
Speaker 1: them forty fourth, So in ken Bum's power ratings, they're
17:07
Speaker 1: a very unlucky team Baylor. I mean, according to Kem Bom,
17:12
Speaker 1: Baylor is almost like kind of deserving of a tournament
17:14
Speaker 1: spot just based on those rankings. Pyu. I mean, you
17:17
Speaker 1: can't blame them for these losses where they had a
17:19
Speaker 1: close loss at home to Arizona, they lost at Kansas
17:23
Speaker 1: where Kansas just beat Arizona last night. They had the
17:26
Speaker 1: sandwich spot where I gave out Oklahoma State as a
17:29
Speaker 1: play very difficult spot in that one. They lost that game.
17:32
Speaker 1: Then they lost against Houston, who's very very good. So
17:36
Speaker 1: I don't think you can blame BYU for any of that.
17:39
Speaker 1: Now they are getting to step back down in class
17:41
Speaker 1: to play Baylor is not as good as Houston. Baylor
17:45
Speaker 1: is gonna get up for this game too, though. Man again,
17:47
Speaker 1: they they need something to try to help their tournament resume.
17:52
Speaker 1: Baylor is coming up a big game themselves against Iowa
17:55
Speaker 1: State where it looks like it was close. They lost
17:57
Speaker 1: by three at Iowa State, which as a crazy result.
18:01
Speaker 1: And I would usually say that when you were a
18:03
Speaker 1: huge underdog like that and you played them close in
18:05
Speaker 1: a big game like that, you're gonna be flat in
18:07
Speaker 1: the next game. But I'm not so sure, I would
18:09
Speaker 1: say that about Baylor, because if you look at this game,
18:11
Speaker 1: this game was not actually this close. It was like
18:14
Speaker 1: just a complete garbage time run for Baylor. It was
18:17
Speaker 1: close into the second half, then Iowa State pulled away.
18:20
Speaker 1: Iowa State was winning this game by fourteen with two
18:23
Speaker 1: minutes left, so the fact that it finished three is
18:26
Speaker 1: just Iowa State never scored again and Baylor just put
18:30
Speaker 1: a bunch of garbage time points up and by the
18:32
Speaker 1: time they cut it to they hit a three with
18:35
Speaker 1: one second left. It cut it back to three. So
18:38
Speaker 1: it's not like there was ever any danger of Iowa
18:40
Speaker 1: State losing that game. So I don't know if I
18:43
Speaker 1: would consider that to be like a close call for Baylor.
18:45
Speaker 1: I probably wouldn't. This is a tough game to handicap
18:50
Speaker 1: bi use up from two to three here, I'd probably
18:54
Speaker 1: lean towards taking the points man. To be honest, Baylor,
18:57
Speaker 1: I just think they're way under the radar right now.
18:59
Speaker 1: You'll probably get an effort out of them because they're
19:02
Speaker 1: still considered to be a tournament bubble team. They have
19:04
Speaker 1: a good team coming to their place. They're a significantly
19:08
Speaker 1: underrated team right now, whereas BYU is probably appropriately ranked.
19:14
Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna skip some of these A ten
19:16
Speaker 1: games that are just not interesting. They're ugly games. I
19:20
Speaker 1: think there is gonna be one that's on. I thought
19:23
Speaker 1: there was one TV one later, but I guess there is.
19:25
Speaker 1: In doubt whatever, if you want me to talk about
19:27
Speaker 1: any of my will, but they're all pretty horrendous games,
19:29
Speaker 1: to be honest. Actually, well maybe not the Saint Joe's
19:32
Speaker 1: game against Fordham. Saint Joe's, I mean they're coming off
19:36
Speaker 1: a game against George Mason that was I think a
19:38
Speaker 1: fairly close game, so yeah, I mean they were hanging
19:42
Speaker 1: around with George Mason. They were within two points in
19:44
Speaker 1: the final couple minutes of that game. So yeah, I
19:47
Speaker 1: would say that because of that performance with Saint Joe's
19:50
Speaker 1: there are six and a half point dogs almost we're
19:53
Speaker 1: able to pull off an upset there of a pretty
19:55
Speaker 1: decent magnitude. I would say they might be flat coming
19:59
Speaker 1: off of that into this game against Fordham. So I
20:03
Speaker 1: would probably lean to ford them for that reason. Fordham
20:07
Speaker 1: coming off another loss, this one to Same Bond Adventure
20:10
Speaker 1: at home, but Fordham was coming off kind of they
20:13
Speaker 1: were coming up of a big performance against VCU Man
20:16
Speaker 1: where they almost I don't want to say they almost won,
20:18
Speaker 1: but they did come to within four of them, So
20:21
Speaker 1: maybe they were just a bit flat in the next one.
20:25
Speaker 1: Maybe at this point they will bounce back. But yeah,
20:27
Speaker 1: and that one I would lean to ford them. So
20:29
Speaker 1: there is a little bit of an angle there for
20:30
Speaker 1: me to latch onto there. They're getting five points in
20:33
Speaker 1: that one. Saint Joe's don't know how to respond to
20:36
Speaker 1: coming up that big game against Mason where they almost
20:38
Speaker 1: pulled that off. Acc Network has Notre Dame in SMU
20:43
Speaker 1: at seven pm. Not a whole lot that I could
20:46
Speaker 1: figure out in this game. Notre Dame's just not a
20:48
Speaker 1: very good team. They've lost four games in a row though,
20:51
Speaker 1: but this is gonna be their third road game in
20:53
Speaker 1: four games, so that's not an easy thing to do either.
20:56
Speaker 1: But you gotta think they will at least show up,
20:58
Speaker 1: although they're not familiar with this venue really having to
21:01
Speaker 1: go to Dallas to play SMU. SMU is coming up
21:04
Speaker 1: an easy win over Pit, so they set up fine
21:08
Speaker 1: in this game too. So really it might come down
21:11
Speaker 1: to the fact that SMU is definitely the better team,
21:14
Speaker 1: although that is factor into the line. That plus the
21:16
Speaker 1: unfamiliar venue though, Plus I think the spot setting up
21:20
Speaker 1: fine for SMU. I guess I would probably lean towards
21:23
Speaker 1: laying it with SMU. They're out from eleven to twelve here,
21:26
Speaker 1: but I'm not gonna want to have anything to do
21:29
Speaker 1: with then. I don't believe SMU has been that great
21:31
Speaker 1: as a large home favorite this year either, so that's
21:35
Speaker 1: definitely a stay away. Seven thirty pm on TNT Big East,
21:39
Speaker 1: we have Marquette and Villanova. These two teams did already play,
21:43
Speaker 1: and Villanova did win at Marquette already by three, and
21:47
Speaker 1: they were three and a half point favorites. I don't
21:49
Speaker 1: know if that will cause Villanova to take Marquette totally
21:52
Speaker 1: seriously though. It was a close game, but Villanova, you know,
21:56
Speaker 1: they weren't favored by that much, so it's not like
21:58
Speaker 1: they were taken to the limit as a huge favor
22:01
Speaker 1: or anything. Marquette had a nice win in their last
22:03
Speaker 1: outing against Butler. Now they do have to go back
22:06
Speaker 1: to the East Coast though to play this game, but
22:08
Speaker 1: they are an avenging road underdog in this one, which
22:12
Speaker 1: I do that is an angle. I like to use
22:14
Speaker 1: Villanova on a three game win streak potentially they'll be
22:18
Speaker 1: looking ahead to Creyton. I don't believe, I know they
22:20
Speaker 1: have played Crayton. Creighton actually beat them at home earlier
22:23
Speaker 1: this year. So Nova only has three losses in conference
22:26
Speaker 1: play this season, and that's the only one that wasn't
22:29
Speaker 1: the Saint John's or Yukon, so that might be a
22:33
Speaker 1: game they are looking ahead to to get some revenge
22:35
Speaker 1: against Creighton. So, and because Villanova does play slow, which
22:40
Speaker 1: makes it more difficult to cover as a big favorite,
22:42
Speaker 1: I would probably take the points with Marquette in this one.
22:46
Speaker 1: Villanova's a nine and a half point favorite. The total
22:48
Speaker 1: is fairly low in the one forties, which is expected
22:52
Speaker 1: with the Villanova game. Marquette is going to try to
22:55
Speaker 1: speed the game up and probably not succeed in doing so.
22:58
Speaker 1: But even even if Villanova does slow the game down,
23:01
Speaker 1: it will make it more difficult for them to win
23:03
Speaker 1: by a huge number like that. Eight pm on Peacock,
23:06
Speaker 1: Wisconsin is at Illinois. Wisconsin is coming off kind of
23:11
Speaker 1: a BS loss at Indiana. I think they've had a
23:14
Speaker 1: lot of time off since that game too, some bad
23:18
Speaker 1: foul calls at the end of that game, and Wisconsin
23:21
Speaker 1: mode by having the game kind of stolen from them
23:24
Speaker 1: by the refs. I would say, if you watch the
23:27
Speaker 1: end of that game, they might be a little bit
23:30
Speaker 1: angry coming into this one. You know they're gonna step
23:32
Speaker 1: up for a game against Illinois, and I'm not sure
23:34
Speaker 1: that I love the spot for Illinois here. Illinois just
23:37
Speaker 1: lost a long win streak. Man, they had not lost
23:39
Speaker 1: since I think they're another second conference game against Nebraska,
23:44
Speaker 1: which was that game where they lost at home as
23:46
Speaker 1: a huge favor and I gave them out in that game.
23:49
Speaker 1: Not happy about that, but that was the last time
23:51
Speaker 1: Illinois lost a game. That's insane. And you know, I
23:54
Speaker 1: talk about this when you have a long win streak
23:57
Speaker 1: like that. I think they had twelve straight wins and
23:59
Speaker 1: that win streak gets snapped. A lot of times are
24:03
Speaker 1: gonna be hungover in the next game, and we've seen
24:05
Speaker 1: that happen a lot this season, especially when the teams
24:08
Speaker 1: lose their undefeated status. So watch for potentially fading Arizona
24:13
Speaker 1: in their next game. I would probably be fading Kansas
24:16
Speaker 1: in their next game too, by the way. A little
24:18
Speaker 1: bit of a look ahead there to what's upcoming this
24:20
Speaker 1: week for me. But Illinois that was a big game too,
24:25
Speaker 1: so there are multiple reasons why they might be hungover here.
24:27
Speaker 1: That was a close, hard fought game at Michigan State.
24:30
Speaker 1: They fell short in the game they could have potentially
24:33
Speaker 1: won the game. I'm not gonna say they're gonna overlook Wisconsin,
24:36
Speaker 1: because I don't think they will, but the spot to
24:39
Speaker 1: me looks like it does set up significantly better for
24:41
Speaker 1: Wisconsin here. I would take the points with Wisconsin Illinois
24:45
Speaker 1: up from ten and a half to eleven and a half.
24:47
Speaker 1: Here total is oddly high. Wisconsin likes to play fast,
24:53
Speaker 1: Illinois is going to try to slow the game down.
24:55
Speaker 1: Although Illinois is a good offense too, but they do
24:57
Speaker 1: play slow, so a little bit strange, but I don't know.
25:01
Speaker 1: I was thinking the slow nature of Illinois's play would
25:04
Speaker 1: make it more difficult for them to cover as a
25:05
Speaker 1: big favorite like this too. But the total is a
25:08
Speaker 1: bit high. Again, some of it is because Wisconsin is
25:11
Speaker 1: gonna try to speed it up though, although I don't
25:15
Speaker 1: know if they're gonna really have success in doing so. Okay,
25:21
Speaker 1: Houston at Utah nine pm ESPN. Do I know we
25:23
Speaker 1: have some this ugly Ohio Valley game, But yeah, I
25:27
Speaker 1: don't know who cares Houston at Utah number three Houston,
25:32
Speaker 1: although I think, actually, well, fine, I have an angle
25:35
Speaker 1: in this one, Eastern Illinois Western Illinois. It's not a
25:37
Speaker 1: play for me, but it is an avenging road underdog scenario.
25:40
Speaker 1: Eastern Illinois was actually uh, excuse me, actually, wait a minute,
25:46
Speaker 1: Am I wrong about this? Oh? No, no, no. Eastern Illinois
25:47
Speaker 1: is a six and a half boy favor to barely
25:49
Speaker 1: beat Western Illinois the first time, So that's what I
25:52
Speaker 1: was thinking. I think they might be focused because they
25:54
Speaker 1: barely got by them at home the first time, and
25:57
Speaker 1: now that they just ended a four game losing string,
26:00
Speaker 1: I think they might actually show up here. Although it
26:02
Speaker 1: is a third straight road game, so that's something to
26:04
Speaker 1: maybe be worried about. This Western Illinois team is terrible though,
26:08
Speaker 1: although yeah, they'll be looking for a win finally in
26:11
Speaker 1: conference play, but they don't have one, so yeah, I
26:16
Speaker 1: don't know that one. I do actually kind of lean
26:18
Speaker 1: towards Eastern Illinois. They're up down for a four and
26:20
Speaker 1: a half point favorite to a four point favorite, though,
26:22
Speaker 1: although based on the fact there were six and a
26:24
Speaker 1: half point favorite at home, doesn't look like there's a
26:26
Speaker 1: ton of line value in that number there, So I
26:30
Speaker 1: don't know do with that information what you want to.
26:32
Speaker 1: I guess number three Houston is at Utah. Obviously, Houston
26:35
Speaker 1: is a significantly better team here. Houston has gone into elevation.
26:39
Speaker 1: They're actually in elevation right now. They just played at BYU.
26:43
Speaker 1: That was the bigger game though, and they got the
26:45
Speaker 1: win over BYU. So I don't know if Houston is
26:48
Speaker 1: going to maintain that effort into this game. They don't
26:50
Speaker 1: really need to. They probably should be able to get
26:53
Speaker 1: in get out with a win. They're a huge favorite,
26:56
Speaker 1: obviously they do. They only have Kansas State on deck,
26:58
Speaker 1: which isn't a massive game or anything, but could be
27:01
Speaker 1: maybe a little bit of a bit of a letdown
27:03
Speaker 1: off of the BYU win there. Utah just played pretty
27:06
Speaker 1: well at Kansas, but it's not like it was so
27:08
Speaker 1: close that they almost had a chance to win or anything.
27:10
Speaker 1: But I gave that out as a winner on the show.
27:13
Speaker 1: Utah had a wire to wire cover in that game
27:15
Speaker 1: as a massive underdog, so we got that one right
27:18
Speaker 1: with Kansas in a huge sandwich spot in that one.
27:21
Speaker 1: But I think Utah will show up for this game
27:23
Speaker 1: at home against Houston. We know Houston likes to play very,
27:27
Speaker 1: very slow and mostly focused on deep met so I
27:30
Speaker 1: would probably take the points with Utah in this one.
27:33
Speaker 1: Houston's a sixteen and a half way favorite. Looks like
27:35
Speaker 1: you might get seventeen on this total is low in
27:38
Speaker 1: the one forties, but yeah, Utah would be the way
27:41
Speaker 1: I would lean in that one. ESPN We're going to
27:44
Speaker 1: ESPN doubleheader for my plays in this one. Man the
27:47
Speaker 1: next playoff. This is maybe uglier than the other one.
27:51
Speaker 1: We're gonna be on pit plus sixteen and a half
27:54
Speaker 1: against Duke. This is a game where Duke is in
27:58
Speaker 1: one of those situations where they lost to win streak,
28:00
Speaker 1: and yet they really did. They took their first loss
28:04
Speaker 1: in conference playing. Their only other loss all season was
28:07
Speaker 1: a neutral site loss by one to Texas Tech in
28:11
Speaker 1: out of conference play way back in December, so they
28:13
Speaker 1: hadn't lost this December. And dude, this has been a
28:17
Speaker 1: great angle in college basketball this year. When these teams
28:21
Speaker 1: lose for the first time in conference, so they lose
28:23
Speaker 1: for the first time during the season, they have a
28:26
Speaker 1: long win streak and they finally lose. In this case,
28:28
Speaker 1: Duke had ten straight wins. They had a huge game
28:31
Speaker 1: it was a rivalry game against North Carolina. All of
28:35
Speaker 1: that adds up to Duke being in a hangover spot here. Man,
28:38
Speaker 1: it's a third road game in four games too, So
28:40
Speaker 1: I think this is a bad spot for Duke for
28:43
Speaker 1: all those reasons. And again, these teams that lose long
28:46
Speaker 1: win streaks this year, it's been like huge money fading
28:49
Speaker 1: those teams this year. And I know I have not
28:51
Speaker 1: done that much this year. I think I've only done
28:54
Speaker 1: it once, maybe twice. Hopefully this is gonna be one
28:57
Speaker 1: where we get it right. And this is actually even
28:59
Speaker 1: more for Duke because it's a sandwich spot. They're playing
29:02
Speaker 1: ranked Clemson next back at home. And if you guys
29:06
Speaker 1: don't remember, there was one team in the ACC that
29:09
Speaker 1: Duke played and did not beat last year, and that
29:12
Speaker 1: was Clemson. They only played them once during the regular
29:15
Speaker 1: season last year, didn't play them in the ACC Tournament,
29:19
Speaker 1: and Duke lost to Clemson. That was the only time
29:22
Speaker 1: they played them last year. So I think Duke has
29:24
Speaker 1: that game circled man. Clemson being the only ACC team
29:28
Speaker 1: that was able to do that to them last year,
29:30
Speaker 1: that's a big game on deck. This is a massively
29:34
Speaker 1: negative spot for Duke. Here for Pitt. Yeah, they're a
29:38
Speaker 1: bad team whatever, but we'll look at kem Pum in
29:41
Speaker 1: a minute. They're at least probably better than you think
29:43
Speaker 1: they are. They're on a three game slide right now,
29:47
Speaker 1: losing by almost twenty points at home in their last
29:49
Speaker 1: game in smu Z. They're staying at home off an
29:53
Speaker 1: embarrassing home loss. I think they're gonna show up with
29:56
Speaker 1: something in this game. Man, We'll see. I mean, they've
30:00
Speaker 1: had mixed results at home. They did play close at
30:03
Speaker 1: home against Clemson. They've had some horrible losses at home
30:06
Speaker 1: to like getting just massively embarrassed by Louisville. But we
30:11
Speaker 1: see what Louisville could do when they're reigning threes. You know,
30:14
Speaker 1: we saw what they did last night to a good
30:18
Speaker 1: NC State team. So I don't know how much stock
30:21
Speaker 1: we should put into that. But this is all about
30:23
Speaker 1: the spot, mostly the spot that Duke is in. We
30:25
Speaker 1: can actually get a better number on this now, let's
30:27
Speaker 1: like we gonna update this. We can get seventeen on this.
30:31
Speaker 1: We're gonna get a lot of points with Pitt in
30:33
Speaker 1: this one. And I think this line is definitely high
30:35
Speaker 1: because it's Duke. I think the knee jerk reaction for
30:39
Speaker 1: the recreational betters is gonna be. Well, Duke lost in
30:42
Speaker 1: a huge rivalry to a good North Carolina team. Clearly
30:45
Speaker 1: they'll bounce back here and be angry and blow a
30:48
Speaker 1: team out right, But that's not usually how it works. Man.
30:52
Speaker 1: The totals low. Duke likes to play slow. The totals
30:56
Speaker 1: in the one thirties, So if it's a slow paced game,
30:58
Speaker 1: which I think it will be, that's gonna make it
31:01
Speaker 1: more difficult for Duke to cover a huge number like this.
31:03
Speaker 1: They can obviously win without covering, So that's on the
31:06
Speaker 1: table here with a massive underdog play like this. Yeah,
31:10
Speaker 1: Duke is legit. Yeah, they're top ten boths and defense.
31:14
Speaker 1: They're a little bit lucky according to kem Bom eighty
31:16
Speaker 1: ninth in luck, so there is something to latch onto there.
31:20
Speaker 1: Pitt is a very unlucky team according to Kempom. I
31:23
Speaker 1: know they're not even within the top one hundred. I
31:26
Speaker 1: understand that, but that's why we're getting a ton of
31:28
Speaker 1: points at home with them. They're at least a balanced team.
31:32
Speaker 1: They don't focus on just offense or defense. They play
31:35
Speaker 1: a balanced game. At least they play really really slow,
31:38
Speaker 1: just like Duke does. So this game might be played
31:40
Speaker 1: at a crawl. And Pittsburgh is one of the unluckiest
31:43
Speaker 1: teams in the nation. According to Kem Bom, they're like
31:47
Speaker 1: thirteenth unluckiest in the entire country, meaning they've really underperformed
31:52
Speaker 1: the fact they're nine and fifteen, Like basically looking at
31:55
Speaker 1: kem Bum's numbers, he's basically telling you they should probably
31:57
Speaker 1: be more like a twelve and twelve team. So that's
32:02
Speaker 1: what's going on here. That's what's going on. But I
32:07
Speaker 1: am not torn on this game. Yes, we're gonna go
32:11
Speaker 1: with pitt plus the points here. And pitt has played
32:14
Speaker 1: a reasonably difficult schedule, though Dukes has been somewhat more difficult,
32:18
Speaker 1: but Pitts plays a difficult schedule as well. Pitt is
32:21
Speaker 1: the play there. Those are my two college basketball players
32:24
Speaker 1: of the day. All right, the rest of these games
32:27
Speaker 1: as we are in the nine PM slate here, Number
32:30
Speaker 1: five Iowa State at TCU on Fox Sports one. Iowa State,
32:35
Speaker 1: they're a legit team. Man, they're coming off. If you
32:37
Speaker 1: want to call that a scare against Baylor, I guess
32:40
Speaker 1: does that mean they're gonna show up with full focus
32:42
Speaker 1: against a struggling TCU team. I'm not really convinced of
32:46
Speaker 1: that because they do have a huge game against Kansas
32:48
Speaker 1: on deck, and then they have Houston and BYU right
32:51
Speaker 1: after that. So this could be a look at spot
32:53
Speaker 1: for Iowa State where they get caught and you might
32:56
Speaker 1: get a motivated TCU team here. That's you know, they're
33:00
Speaker 1: in need of a win to try to do something
33:01
Speaker 1: to bolster the tournament resume here. They did just get
33:04
Speaker 1: a win against Kansas State. I believe they did not
33:07
Speaker 1: cover here. Yeah, they were nine and a half point
33:10
Speaker 1: favorites and they didn't cover. So you want to talk
33:12
Speaker 1: about a big favorite that almost lost the game, That's
33:15
Speaker 1: what happened in this game. Kansas State was actually blowing
33:18
Speaker 1: TCU out of this game and pretty much winning the
33:22
Speaker 1: entire game, and TCU escaped. So that does set up
33:25
Speaker 1: a good spot for TCU here. Again, when you have
33:28
Speaker 1: a big favorite like that that has a horrible game
33:31
Speaker 1: and they barely escape, they're gonna be focused in the
33:34
Speaker 1: next game, and they probably were looking ahead as well.
33:37
Speaker 1: I think this is a big game for them. I
33:39
Speaker 1: think they're gonna want to be looking to try to
33:40
Speaker 1: get a win to add to their tournament resume and
33:43
Speaker 1: try to get into the tournament. Iowa State not laying
33:46
Speaker 1: as many points as you would think, and in a
33:48
Speaker 1: game where a team is ranked this highly, because the
33:50
Speaker 1: Osburgers are telling you TCU is not that bad. Iowa
33:54
Speaker 1: States dropped from seven and a half to seven pretty
33:56
Speaker 1: low total in the one forties. I will lean word's
34:00
Speaker 1: taking the points with TCU in that one. That's the
34:03
Speaker 1: way I would play it if I was gonna play
34:05
Speaker 1: the side in that game, as I am, you know,
34:08
Speaker 1: mister side as well. TCU is good defensively. They're a
34:11
Speaker 1: top fifty defensive team according to Kempom, so there is
34:14
Speaker 1: that to hang your hat on with TCU. And he's
34:16
Speaker 1: got them fifty fifth in the country overall, which is
34:18
Speaker 1: not horrible and somewhat of an unlucky team, although interestingly
34:23
Speaker 1: they play kind of a mid tempo style. Iowa State
34:26
Speaker 1: plays a little bit slower than that, but Iowa State
34:29
Speaker 1: Kembum has as a top one hundred luck team, so
34:31
Speaker 1: he does have them as more lucky. Number twenty one
34:34
Speaker 1: Arkansas at LSU on the SEC Network at nine pm.
34:38
Speaker 1: This is a rematch of a game that was already
34:39
Speaker 1: played Arkansas already. They already beat LSU. Where's the game. Yeah,
34:46
Speaker 1: they beat LSU, but they only beat them by four
34:48
Speaker 1: at home. And Arkansas was a pretty big favorite in
34:50
Speaker 1: this one. So this is an angle that you could
34:53
Speaker 1: use when a big favorite got a scare like this.
34:55
Speaker 1: Arkansas were ten and a half point favorites in that one.
34:58
Speaker 1: I think LSU was winning that game late in the game,
35:01
Speaker 1: and when that was the case in the first matchup,
35:04
Speaker 1: a lot of times that favorite will be focused in
35:07
Speaker 1: the second matchup, like they'll take that team seriously. So
35:10
Speaker 1: that's what you might get out of Arkansas here. They're
35:12
Speaker 1: coming of an easy win over Mississippi State, no big deal.
35:15
Speaker 1: They got Auburn on deck, but I don't really know
35:17
Speaker 1: they're gonna have a huge look ahead to Auburn. LSU
35:23
Speaker 1: should show up as well. They're coming off a double
35:26
Speaker 1: digit home loss to Georgia, so I expect both teams
35:29
Speaker 1: to show up in this one. But Arkansas, I don't
35:32
Speaker 1: think they're really gonna take LSU lightly this time. They've
35:35
Speaker 1: gone up from four to six here. I would probably
35:37
Speaker 1: lay it with Arkansas in that one, just based off
35:42
Speaker 1: of that first meeting, where I just don't think Arkansas
35:45
Speaker 1: is gonna overlook them after that. All right, CBS Sports,
35:48
Speaker 1: you do have Oklahoma State and Arizona State at nine pm,
35:52
Speaker 1: a Big twelve matchup. Oklahoma State considered to be a
35:56
Speaker 1: tournament bubble team and they're coming off of an embarrassing loss.
35:59
Speaker 1: I know it was to Arizona. Arizona's really good, but
36:03
Speaker 1: I mean Oklahoma State's not as good as their record looks. Sure,
36:07
Speaker 1: but you lose my thirty seven points to anybody, I
36:11
Speaker 1: think you're gonna show up with some focus in the
36:13
Speaker 1: next game. So I think we will get an effort
36:16
Speaker 1: out of Oklahoma State here after that really really bad loss.
36:20
Speaker 1: Arizona State. They're coming back from going into elevation and
36:24
Speaker 1: they got Texas Tech on deck. Now, I don't know
36:28
Speaker 1: that they're gonna overlook Oklahoma State after Arizona State did
36:31
Speaker 1: lose their last game to Colorado coming back out of elevation.
36:35
Speaker 1: Back at home, they did lose their last home game
36:38
Speaker 1: to Arizona, So I think Arizona State, I guess, will
36:40
Speaker 1: probably show up as well. I'm probably gonna lead to
36:43
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State though, because they don't have the look ahead
36:46
Speaker 1: they're coming up the more embarrassing loss, and they are
36:48
Speaker 1: the better team. Arizona State down from three to two
36:51
Speaker 1: and a half here, I'll agree with taking the points
36:54
Speaker 1: of Oklahoma State in that one, and as kem Bum
36:57
Speaker 1: will bear that out. Even though he has Oklahoma State
36:59
Speaker 1: not good at fifty eighth, he has Arizona State there
37:03
Speaker 1: they are seventy second. So as I said, yeah, Oklahoma
37:07
Speaker 1: State is the better team according to ken Bomb and
37:09
Speaker 1: according to the rankings makers ESPN two and eleven PM.
37:13
Speaker 1: Washington State at at Gonzaga in a Washington battle here,
37:18
Speaker 1: I believe these teams already played. Yes, Gonzaga already beat
37:21
Speaker 1: Washington State in Pullman, Washington at Washington State by twenty one,
37:26
Speaker 1: so there is a road revenge angle here for Washington State.
37:29
Speaker 1: You know they're gonna show up because of course they
37:33
Speaker 1: already got pretty much embarrassed by Gonzaga in their own place.
37:36
Speaker 1: And it's Gonzaga, you know, they're a big brother to
37:39
Speaker 1: you in the state of Washington. Z he'll show up
37:41
Speaker 1: for it. But Washington State is coming up a pretty
37:44
Speaker 1: big performance against Santa Clara, who is actually at the
37:48
Speaker 1: top of the conference for now. Although Gonzaga is still
37:50
Speaker 1: the better team but that was a huge game for
37:53
Speaker 1: Washington State as well, so they're playing two huge games
37:55
Speaker 1: in a row, so they might be running a little
38:00
Speaker 1: bit out of steam by the end of this game,
38:02
Speaker 1: So that would be the issue with Washington State here.
38:05
Speaker 1: Gonzaga's coming up a much easier bounce back win over
38:08
Speaker 1: Oregon State, but they might be looking ahead because they
38:10
Speaker 1: do have Santa Clara on deck and that would be
38:12
Speaker 1: a big game basically for first place in the West
38:15
Speaker 1: Coast Conference. So the potential look ahead there for Gonzaga
38:19
Speaker 1: may be a little bit of an issue. I would
38:22
Speaker 1: probably need to taking the points with Washington State here,
38:25
Speaker 1: although again, coming off a game against Santa Clara, having
38:28
Speaker 1: to play two huge games in a row like that
38:31
Speaker 1: might take its toll on them. Man, Gonzaga up from
38:34
Speaker 1: nineteen to twenty here, but I would probably lean to
38:36
Speaker 1: taking the points with Washington State there and then Fox
38:39
Speaker 1: Sports won for some reason has this Mountain West game
38:43
Speaker 1: late at night between San Jose State and UNLV. This
38:47
Speaker 1: is a pretty disgusting one, man, This is ugly. San
38:49
Speaker 1: Jose State already lost at home to UNLV by fourteen,
38:53
Speaker 1: so they are an avenging road underdog here and they
38:56
Speaker 1: only have one conference win and it's against the hapless
38:59
Speaker 1: air who don't have any conference wins. So San Jose
39:03
Speaker 1: State they're gonna be looking for a win. Man. UNLV's
39:06
Speaker 1: coming out of a nice conference win against Grand Canyon,
39:10
Speaker 1: who's been pretty good in the Mountain West this year.
39:12
Speaker 1: So pretty good win for UNLV there. That did end
39:16
Speaker 1: a losing streak of four games. So a lot of
39:18
Speaker 1: times when a team ends a losing streak they'll have
39:21
Speaker 1: new momentum going forward. But I don't know, Man, they
39:23
Speaker 1: could be in a bit of a letdown after a
39:24
Speaker 1: decent win over Grand Canyon and they got Boise up next.
39:29
Speaker 1: They did beat Boise already, but it's still Boise. I mean,
39:32
Speaker 1: they're ahead of UNLV in the standings. Boise is still
39:34
Speaker 1: one of the better teams in this conference. I didn't
39:37
Speaker 1: mention them in my bracketology last night. I apologize to Boise.
39:41
Speaker 1: I think they are still at least a contender to
39:43
Speaker 1: try to win this conference tournament here. So but all
39:47
Speaker 1: that being said, yeah, I would lean to San Jose
39:48
Speaker 1: State plus the points in this one. UNLV is up
39:51
Speaker 1: from ten to twelve. I know San Jose State's really bad,
39:55
Speaker 1: but UNLV laying double digits. Just I don't know. It
39:58
Speaker 1: seems a little bit wild to me against you know,
40:02
Speaker 1: a conference vote at the very least the one that
40:04
Speaker 1: isn't air Force. So yeah, that's the way I would
40:08
Speaker 1: lean in that one. All right, NBA, I'm gonna give
40:10
Speaker 1: out one play in the NBA, and it is in
40:11
Speaker 1: the first game up. All right, Yeah, we're gonna get
40:15
Speaker 1: done in less than an hour. Hell yeah, uh, Pacers Knicks.
40:18
Speaker 1: This is the play that we got. We're gonna take
40:21
Speaker 1: the Pacers plus the twelve. And I know the Pacers
40:24
Speaker 1: are horrific on the road. I pointed that out the
40:26
Speaker 1: other day. I get it. They're terrible on the road.
40:29
Speaker 1: They're three and twenty two or something on the road.
40:32
Speaker 1: The Knicks are excellent at home. I know all that,
40:35
Speaker 1: twenty one and six at home. We have a huge
40:36
Speaker 1: home road split year that is not in our favor
40:39
Speaker 1: in this one. But we're getting twelve points here. Man.
40:42
Speaker 1: We don't need Indiana to win the game. We need
40:44
Speaker 1: them to cover, and I think they might because the
40:47
Speaker 1: spot is terrible for the Knicks here. Indiana's lost four
40:52
Speaker 1: games in a row. Big game against the Knicks. You
40:55
Speaker 1: gotta think they will show up for this one. They're
40:57
Speaker 1: in the middle of a road trip and they don't
40:58
Speaker 1: have a win on the road trip. You gotta think
41:01
Speaker 1: they're gonna show up for this one. Man. They're coming
41:02
Speaker 1: into New York. They got games against both New York teams.
41:06
Speaker 1: This is the big one, and I don't think they're
41:07
Speaker 1: gonna be looking ahead to Brooklyn tomorrow. This is the
41:10
Speaker 1: one they want, And for the Knicks, this is a
41:12
Speaker 1: horrible spot for the Knicks. The Knicks are coming off
41:15
Speaker 1: just making a huge statement going into Boston and pretty
41:20
Speaker 1: much embarrassing them by twenty two points. I'm embarrassed. I
41:23
Speaker 1: fucking hate that shit. The Knicks huge win in Boston.
41:27
Speaker 1: Now they're coming back home to play Indiana, coming off
41:29
Speaker 1: two road games, by the way, technically a return home spot,
41:32
Speaker 1: although it's not one of those long road trips, so
41:34
Speaker 1: I think things have piled up to do at home
41:37
Speaker 1: or whatever. But still, it was a two game road trip.
41:40
Speaker 1: They played Denver prior to the road trip and to
41:43
Speaker 1: double ot went on the road to face Detroit. M
41:46
Speaker 1: Boston crushed Boston. Now this Indiana game looks like clearly
41:51
Speaker 1: the overlook spot of the schedule. Man because up next
41:54
Speaker 1: tomorrow they have the game that I mentioned yesterday and
41:56
Speaker 1: the reason why I faded the Sixers yesterday. They look
41:59
Speaker 1: ahead to this game. It's gonna be a big game
42:01
Speaker 1: on ESPN between both these teams. It is probably bigger
42:05
Speaker 1: for Philadelphia, granted, but I think the Knicks are gonna
42:08
Speaker 1: be feeling way too high on themselves after that went
42:11
Speaker 1: over in Boston. The Philadelphia game is still gonna have
42:14
Speaker 1: playoff ramifications. It's still big. And then look at the
42:17
Speaker 1: following games. That's an ESPN game, an Eastern Conference battle
42:21
Speaker 1: between playoff teams. Then right after that they got the
42:24
Speaker 1: Detroit Pistons, although actually it's not for eight days, because
42:26
Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be a I don't know, does
42:28
Speaker 1: the NBA take a break during President's State weakers. I
42:31
Speaker 1: don't know why the NBA seems to have like a
42:33
Speaker 1: week long break, but it'll be a nice break for
42:35
Speaker 1: me where I only have to do college of basketball
42:37
Speaker 1: if that's the case. Anyway, the Knicks do get a
42:41
Speaker 1: break after that, but they do play Detroit and Houston
42:43
Speaker 1: after that. So all these games are bigger than this
42:46
Speaker 1: game against Indiana. So we're gonna take the Pacers plus
42:49
Speaker 1: the points, Knicks are up to a twelve point favorite,
42:52
Speaker 1: sixty seven percent of tickets on them, sixty five percent
42:55
Speaker 1: of the cash coming back on Indiana. So the money
42:58
Speaker 1: is agreeing with me on this one. It looks like
43:00
Speaker 1: a pros versus Joe split in this game. I obviously
43:04
Speaker 1: agree with it. The market is agreeing with me. Indiana
43:08
Speaker 1: is the one bat of the one NBA play today.
43:11
Speaker 1: The other NBA games will they're better games. I don't
43:15
Speaker 1: really have much I don't want to have anything to
43:17
Speaker 1: do with these games. Clippers are at Houston on the
43:20
Speaker 1: NBA TV doubleheader here. I think both of these teams
43:23
Speaker 1: are in letdown spots man. The Clippers are coming off
43:26
Speaker 1: of a very satisfying upset road win of the Minnesota
43:30
Speaker 1: Tea Wolves, beating in them by almost twenty. That's a
43:32
Speaker 1: big win. Nice win for the Clippers. Now they're not
43:35
Speaker 1: gonna overlook Houston. They're playing two games in a row.
43:39
Speaker 1: In fact, at Houston. Here, Houston, they're coming off a
43:43
Speaker 1: huge win as well. They just went into Oklahoma City
43:46
Speaker 1: and beat the Thunder And I know it was a
43:47
Speaker 1: bit of a shorthanded Thunder team, but still you go
43:50
Speaker 1: into Oka See and beat the Thunder. That's a huge
43:53
Speaker 1: game as well. So now Houston's coming back home from
43:56
Speaker 1: that single game road trip, They've had a couple of
43:58
Speaker 1: days off to just kind of bask in that and
44:02
Speaker 1: think about how awesome they are. So I don't think
44:04
Speaker 1: that's a good thing for Houston. So what do we
44:07
Speaker 1: want to do with this game? Well, I'm saying we're
44:09
Speaker 1: gonna stay away. But that being said, I probably agree
44:12
Speaker 1: with the market reading this one and lead towards taking
44:14
Speaker 1: the points of the Clippers Houston. First of all, it's
44:17
Speaker 1: a low total for an NBA game, two pH nine
44:20
Speaker 1: and a half, meaning that maybe taking the points does
44:23
Speaker 1: kind of make sense for that reason. A though I
44:25
Speaker 1: know when you're talking an NBA there are so many
44:26
Speaker 1: points that the points are not really that valuable, like
44:30
Speaker 1: each individual point is not, but that still it looks
44:34
Speaker 1: like it might be a slower game than most. Fifty
44:37
Speaker 1: nine percent of tickets are on Houston, sixty six percent
44:40
Speaker 1: of the cash however, on the Clippers. I think the
44:42
Speaker 1: public is still looking at these teams overall records and
44:45
Speaker 1: not buying the Clippers. But I've been telling you, man,
44:48
Speaker 1: the Clippers over the last month plus, they've been a
44:51
Speaker 1: much much better team. They've coalesced, and the public might
44:54
Speaker 1: be thinking about, well, they traded James Hard and do
44:56
Speaker 1: Daris Garland hasn't played yet for them. That is true.
45:00
Speaker 1: They also traded away Zoobach, so in a way, it
45:03
Speaker 1: looked like the Clippers are almost selling at the trade deadline.
45:07
Speaker 1: But they're still playing with intensity, they're still playing well.
45:10
Speaker 1: They're playing much better over the past month. So I'm
45:14
Speaker 1: not gonna go against that. Yeah, I would take the
45:17
Speaker 1: points of the Clippers in this one. It's not gonna
45:19
Speaker 1: be a player or anything, but that would be my opinion. Yeah,
45:22
Speaker 1: they are worse on the road. They're below five hundred
45:24
Speaker 1: on the road. Houston is definitely good at home sixteen
45:26
Speaker 1: and seven. So that is something working against that play
45:29
Speaker 1: a little bit. But that's that's one thing. Oh yeah,
45:32
Speaker 1: it is the All Star Game. That's right, That's what
45:33
Speaker 1: it is. How could I forget? Well, the All Star
45:37
Speaker 1: Game is just stupid though, thank you Kyle. But now
45:39
Speaker 1: they're doing some stupid like I don't know, US versus
45:43
Speaker 1: World thing instead of East versus West. I don't know, man, Like,
45:48
Speaker 1: just go back to the dude. The All Star Game
45:51
Speaker 1: was actually cool like back in like the nineties when
45:53
Speaker 1: I was a kid, the Dunk Contest was actually really cool.
45:57
Speaker 1: Three point Contest was fun. They just the normal things
46:00
Speaker 1: and then the All Star Game. Yeah, it was kind
46:03
Speaker 1: of stupid because the teams didn't play deep bets or whatever.
46:05
Speaker 1: But it was like a showcase. It was the Eastern
46:07
Speaker 1: Conference versus the Western Conference. You know, like, why would
46:12
Speaker 1: you change that? It worked. It was a concept that worked.
46:16
Speaker 1: I don't know, dude, I don't know what else to say. Yeah,
46:20
Speaker 1: here's a concept that works. Twenty million other white rappers emerge,
46:24
Speaker 1: but no matter how many fishing in the sea, it'll
46:26
Speaker 1: be so empty without me. There you go. Somebody may
46:29
Speaker 1: reference that song the other day in the comments as well,
46:32
Speaker 1: So there you go. I'll wrap some eminem for you there. Yes, uh,
46:39
Speaker 1: so you're correct. The All Star Game is coming up
46:40
Speaker 1: and they're doing whatever that new bs is. The three
46:44
Speaker 1: point Contest, I guess is still all right, because how
46:47
Speaker 1: could you really change that. The dunk Contest has become
46:50
Speaker 1: really really stupid. You have guys that specialize in the
46:53
Speaker 1: dunk contest. It's all so dumb, man, Just go, I
46:56
Speaker 1: want to go back to the Dunk Contest or it
46:58
Speaker 1: was Yeah, Michael Jordan and it and all that anyway,
47:02
Speaker 1: but yes, you're correct, that is the case. Dallas at Phoenix.
47:05
Speaker 1: Let's get this show done here, man, we'll still be
47:10
Speaker 1: in under an hour. There's only one other game after this.
47:13
Speaker 1: Dallas is on a six game losing streak, but they
47:16
Speaker 1: lost to pretty much all good teams during that during
47:19
Speaker 1: that stretch, man, and some of the games were close.
47:22
Speaker 1: They're coming up a loss of San Antonio. They've been
47:24
Speaker 1: a couple of days off. I don't think the spot
47:26
Speaker 1: is that bad for Dallas. They get to wrest a
47:28
Speaker 1: little bit trying to break that losing momentum. And again,
47:31
Speaker 1: this losing streak is worse than it looks like because
47:33
Speaker 1: it was against all good teams. So I'm not gonna
47:37
Speaker 1: knock them too much for it. And you know, they
47:40
Speaker 1: played again competitively in the majority of those games. I
47:43
Speaker 1: would say Phoenix is coming up a pretty difficult game
47:45
Speaker 1: as well, staying at home. They're on a losing streak
47:48
Speaker 1: as well, so breaking that losing momentum might be a
47:51
Speaker 1: thing for them as well with a couple of days
47:53
Speaker 1: off staying at home, But they did have a closer
47:54
Speaker 1: couple of games against Golden State and Philadelphia, and they
47:58
Speaker 1: have a couple of huge games on deck, oh Gloma City,
48:01
Speaker 1: then San Antonio. So I think the look ahead spot
48:06
Speaker 1: is a little bit worse for Phoenix here. I would
48:07
Speaker 1: lean to Dallas here. So again I agree with the
48:10
Speaker 1: market percentages in this one. Suns are up from seven
48:13
Speaker 1: and a half to eight, fifty five percent of tickets
48:15
Speaker 1: on them, sixty seven percent of the cash on the Mavericks.
48:18
Speaker 1: I would agree with the Mavericks in that one. I
48:19
Speaker 1: think you're probably getting a little bit of extra line
48:22
Speaker 1: value on them at this point too, just because they're
48:24
Speaker 1: on such a losing streak. But again, if you look
48:26
Speaker 1: at what that losing streak actually is, it's not as
48:29
Speaker 1: bad as it appears. And then we have San Antonio
48:33
Speaker 1: at the Lakers ten thirty pm Eastern on NBA TV.
48:39
Speaker 1: The one thing that we gotta be watching in this
48:41
Speaker 1: game is is Luca gonna come back? Like that's the
48:44
Speaker 1: one thing, and based on this number, it looks like
48:45
Speaker 1: he might not play. He's been out for a few games.
48:49
Speaker 1: Of course, if he does play, you know what I
48:51
Speaker 1: would say, I would say reverse into player theory, and
48:54
Speaker 1: I would say that means that the line's gonna drop
48:57
Speaker 1: on San Antonio because they're the favorite here. It's gonna
48:59
Speaker 1: drop towards the Lakers. And then if that happens, I
49:02
Speaker 1: think playing San Antonio might be a way to look
49:05
Speaker 1: in that game. If that happens, you'll get extra line
49:07
Speaker 1: value on San Antonio if Luca is coming back and
49:11
Speaker 1: the line drops. So that's what I would look for
49:12
Speaker 1: in this game. So I wouldn't play it now, but
49:15
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna recommend playing it at all. And it
49:18
Speaker 1: looks like Luca may not play because the oddsmakers seem
49:21
Speaker 1: to not be anticipating that. As the Spurs are up
49:23
Speaker 1: from seven and a half to eight, it seems like
49:25
Speaker 1: they're eight and a half. Excuse me, seems like they're
49:27
Speaker 1: anticipating Luca not playing. A sixty eight percent of ticket
49:31
Speaker 1: seventy four percent of the cash on San Antonio. San
49:35
Speaker 1: Antonio is on a four game win streak. They just
49:37
Speaker 1: swept Dallas home and home. You know they're gonna show
49:40
Speaker 1: up for a game against the Lakers. Though it's a
49:42
Speaker 1: big game. Both teams will show up like mentally for
49:46
Speaker 1: this huge game for both teams. Lakers are coming up
49:49
Speaker 1: playing Oklahoma City though and that was a game where
49:51
Speaker 1: the Lakers were playing pretty competitively even without Luca. They
49:56
Speaker 1: were doing all right here man, the Lakers. This game
49:58
Speaker 1: was close almost the tire way. They were within three
50:02
Speaker 1: points in the final like a couple minutes of the game.
50:04
Speaker 1: So the Lakers did not go away in this game.
50:07
Speaker 1: So the Lakers are coming out of a huge performance
50:09
Speaker 1: against the best team in the league. So and that
50:12
Speaker 1: was last night too. So the Lakers are on a
50:14
Speaker 1: back to back following a huge effort. So I do
50:17
Speaker 1: think satisfactoring into the line as well, though the odds
50:20
Speaker 1: makers are They know that the Lakers are on a
50:22
Speaker 1: back to back, so the odds makers are pushing that
50:24
Speaker 1: line even further in the Spurs direction for that reason.
50:27
Speaker 1: But I could only look at the Spurs in this
50:30
Speaker 1: game not gonna play it because I don't I don't
50:33
Speaker 1: really know that the line value was there, but the
50:35
Speaker 1: oddsmakers are telling you something. Just like last night where
50:38
Speaker 1: I talked about it, I thought that Oklahoma City would
50:40
Speaker 1: be the right side. I think I was wrong. I
50:42
Speaker 1: don't think they covered, and they the game was so
50:45
Speaker 1: close that there was like no way they were gonna cover.
50:47
Speaker 1: At the end of that one. I think they got
50:51
Speaker 1: some foul shots at the end. But the odds makers
50:54
Speaker 1: are also still telling you the Lakers are just not
50:56
Speaker 1: that good of a defensive team. They're not as good
50:58
Speaker 1: as people think they are. So yeah, there's a lot
51:02
Speaker 1: going on in that game, man, But I would wait
51:04
Speaker 1: because I think the spot is pretty bad for the
51:06
Speaker 1: Lakers coming off that game against Okay See. I mean, yeah,
51:09
Speaker 1: they're not gonna overlook the Spurs, but it is a
51:11
Speaker 1: difficult spot for them. Again, I would wait see if
51:14
Speaker 1: Luca comes back. If he does, you'll get a better
51:16
Speaker 1: number on the Spurs, and then you might be able
51:18
Speaker 1: to lay the smaller price with the Spurs there. That's
51:22
Speaker 1: gonna do it, man, My plays today one more time
51:24
Speaker 1: College basketball Miami plus one pit plus seventeen NBA Indiana
51:32
Speaker 1: Pacers plus twelve. That's gonna do it. Learn a tone
51:35
Speaker 1: on Twitter. You can subscribe to me there. Learn a
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51:50
Speaker 1: Covered in yuke on YouTube. Same thing goes over there
51:53
Speaker 1: like subscribe, give me good comments there. The yuke covers
51:57
Speaker 1: are in swing. I did a three Doors Down tribute
52:00
Speaker 1: uh rip to Brad Arnold. I'll have to get that
52:03
Speaker 1: up on the YouTube channel soon. It's on Twitter for now.
52:07
Speaker 1: Don't know if I did it that great. I mean
52:09
Speaker 1: I was never that into the band, so I don't know.
52:11
Speaker 1: I had to kind of relearn, like what like re
52:14
Speaker 1: listen to the song. I remember the chorus obviously, but
52:17
Speaker 1: I'm like, what does the song go? Like? Again? I
52:19
Speaker 1: did hear without you? You can go check it out.
52:23
Speaker 1: And then what else do we have to promote here? Oh? Yeah,
52:26
Speaker 1: Patreon dot com, slash and learn to toads, some bonus
52:28
Speaker 1: yuke stuff there, and loser casts will be back to
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Speaker 1: I have not selected a loser yet, but we have
52:34
Speaker 1: loser casts tonight ten pm Eastern after Legion to Skanks.
52:38
Speaker 1: You can check that out. The new comedy podcast that's
52:41
Speaker 1: gonna do it. Have a good one, everybody. Let's have
52:43
Speaker 1: a winning night here. Peace for now, everybody,