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Week 9 2026 College Football Picks for 15 More Games! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's week nine, and we're picking 15 more college football
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: games against the spread. Welcome in. This is Winning Cures Everything.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: It's a college football podcast. I'm your host, Gary Seegers,
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: at GaryWCE on all the different socials, most active on X.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: And today, like we do every week, I'm using my model,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: advanced analytics, and my handicapping experience to preview and predict
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: the outcomes of games that you see on your screen now,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: right there. We're not going to waste a bunch of time.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: So let's go ahead and jump into it. First up,
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: 11 a.m. Central Time, God's time zone, of course. ESPN2,
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: SMU is headed to the Dome. They're taking on the
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Syracuse Orange. And the Orange have a quarterback problem, right?
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: SMU a 9.5 point road favorite. The total is 58.5.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: It opened at 10 and 57.5. It went all the
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: way down to 8.5. It's back up to 9.5 now.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: So the side came in. a half a point, and
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: the total went up a point somewhere around there. So, yeah, 58.5
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: and 9.5. Good gracious. SMU 6-1. They just beat Cal 59-20.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: They covered. Syracuse is 3-4. They won 31-30 at North
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Carolina as a 7.5-point dog. It's a bit of a
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: letdown spot off of road upset, right? SMU went 31-18,
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: or won, excuse me, they won 31-18 last year. They
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: didn't cover as a 17.5-point favorite. Next week, SMU gets
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech on a Friday. Syracuse gets Clemson next week,
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: which would have been a bit of a look-ahead spot,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: but alas, Syracuse has got good gracious. North Carolina, SMU,
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: and Clemson all in a row, and Clemson ain't exactly
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: what it used to be. Just the way it goes.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: SMU getting Virginia Tech on Friday night, that one's interesting.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: Syracuse's quarterback situation is a bit of a mess. Amari
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Odom and Malachi Nelson, Both out. Steve Vangeli is back healthy.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: He came back from the Achilles, played a little bit,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: got hurt. Who knows? If he doesn't play, if he
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: ends up getting hurt, then Danny Lauter is going to
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: be your guy. I would confirm who the guy is
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: before you bet this thing. The stats model has SMU
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: minus 9.15. The situation has SMU minus 8.6. The WCE8
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: has SMU minus 3.27, and the power rating has SMU
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: minus 8.2. So, you know, my stats total, 55.39, so
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: a little bit under here. I mean, I could see
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: it either way, really. SMU's PPA per pass is number
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: four against a pretty decent Syracuse defense at number 23.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Syracuse 138th in penalties. At 90 yards a game, that
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: is last in the country. Let's see. Sorry, penalty yards
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: per game is 138. Penalties per game is only 137.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: It's not like SMU is much better than number 93 there.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: As far as trends go, Syracuse against the spread off
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: of a cover since 2024, 2-9 against the number. SMU
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: against the spread as a road favorite under 14, 7-15-1
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: in the database. Not great. Syracuse at home with a
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: total of 55-59.5, 4-12 to the under. So the trend
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: certainly likes the under here. When you're looking at injuries, SMU,
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: they're missing their safeties, Ahmad Moses and Tyron Pulley Jr.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: The corner, Davis Robinson, running back Green, kicker Nick Reed
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: is game time decision. Syracuse going to be without wide
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: receiver Darian Williams and three offensive linemen. So here's how
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: I'm framing this thing, right? My WCE8 has it three.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: The stats and set have it around nine. The Orange
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: off a one-point road win with a quarterback that nobody
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: can really name at this point. The total of 58.5
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: depends entirely on who takes that first snap. Before I
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: bet anything, I'm waiting on quarterback news. But just looking
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: at the two teams, Syracuse has played a significantly stronger
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: strength schedule. You look at the opponent PBA margin, number
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: 43 strength schedule for Syracuse, number 96 for SMU. If
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: you look at Sagarin, number 51 current strength schedule, number
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: 73 for SMU. SMU's offense is legit whenever they're not
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: turning the ball over. Syracuse is kind of the same thing.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Number 92 in giveaways per game for Syracuse, number 71
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: for SMU. And the SMU offense is really good. The
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: SMU roster is really good. SMU number 28 in overall
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: talent rank. Syracuse number 61. This is a trek. for SMU.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, this thing's up to 9.5. If it hits 10,
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: I would probably go Syracuse. For now, I'm going to
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: go against the, well, basically everything. Because I don't know
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: what Syracuse is going to do at this point, as
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: far as quarterback, as far as anything else. They showed
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: up well for the North Carolina game, but SMU opened
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: up a can in the second half against Cal. I'll
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: follow the market here. Give me SMU minus 9.5 on
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: the road at Syracuse. I may be foolish with this one.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Favorite going on the road. It has not gone well
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: as of late for favorites, but I think this SMU
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: team has found a different gear. And Syracuse, of course,
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: big win last week. Curious what they're going to look
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: like this week. Iowa City, 11 a.m. Central Time, God's
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Time Zone on Fox, and Wisconsin heads to Iowa, and
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: there is a total here that I had to read twice, right? Iowa,
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: a 3.5 point home favorite. That number kind of makes sense.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: I get it. The total is 36.5. Iowa opened at 3.5,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: so no move on the side. The total dropped from 38.5
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: down to 36.5. When I caught it and made the sheet,
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: It was 37.5, and then it dropped even another point.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin beat USC 24-7 last week as a 1.5-point dog.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: That was at home. Iowa lost to Minnesota 13-10 on
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: a walk-off field goal as a 7.5-point favorite. And Hank
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Brown threw two picks. Like, Heglinski didn't look good. The
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Hawkeyes had three as a team. Like, interceptions. Iowa has
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: won the last three meetings. In this series, by a
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: combined 94-16, they won 37-0 last year. Next week, Wisconsin
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: gets Rutgers, Iowa goes to Northwestern. I don't imagine we've
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: got any kind of a look-ahead spot here. Here's the
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: model gap. The stats model has Iowa minus 2.26. The
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: situation has Iowa minus 2.3. The WCE8 has Wisconsin minus 0.27.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: And the stats model, or the stats total, is 45.9.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: The power rating has Iowa minus one and a half.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: So this thing is real close to a pick'em, and
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: yet Iowa is getting three and a hook. Interesting. The 45.9
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: is almost ten points over the, well, it's nine points. 9.4 points.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Is that right? Yeah. Over the market. Both defenses are
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: top 11 in scoring. If you look at Right here, Iowa,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: number 8 in defensive points per game allowed. Wisconsin, number 11.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin allows 15.3. Iowa, 14.3. Iowa's run defense is number
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: 2 in PPA, number 11 in success against a Wisconsin
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  Speaker 1: offense that is 113th in rushing success rate. Number 108
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: in rushing explosiveness, but they are number 40 in PPA
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: per rush. It's very interesting. Very interesting. They're number 110
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: in passing success rate. So the offense, I mean, it's
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: number 106 in offensive success rate overall. But they're number
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: 76 in PPA, which is predicted points added per offensive drive. Iowa,
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: the offense is worse than that. The defense is pretty good.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: Defense is top 25. Wisconsin's defense is top 5. Defensive
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: success rate, Iowa number 7. Wisconsin number 33. These are
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: very similar football teams. Very similar, only Iowa is actually
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: a little bit better at running the football. But Wisconsin's
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: defense is great at stopping it. Number 32 in rushing
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: success rate allowed. Iowa is number 11 in rushing success
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: rate allowed. It's an interesting spot. Interesting spot. Iowa's red
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: zone offense, number 9 in the country, which sounds great.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, 95.24%, but they're actually number 99 in red
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: zone touchdown rate. So that's not good. especially considering Iowa's
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: defense is number 20 in defensive red zone touchdown rate.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Points per scoring opportunity, Wisconsin's defense number 16, Iowa's defense
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: is number 37, Wisconsin's offense number 99, Iowa's offense is
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: number 77. I don't know who's going to score here.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: As far as trends, Luke Fickle in October 7-26 to
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: the under all-time. Iowa against the spread off of a
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: spread loss since 2021, 19-7-2. Wisconsin against the spread in
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: October on the road since 2021, 8-1 against the number.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Small sample, but 8-1 is a pretty big number. So
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: you got that trend going for Wisconsin. You got Iowa
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: against the spread off of a spread loss. Both of
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: those trends certainly point opposite directions. Iowa's kickers, Ozik and Burr,
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: are both questionable. Defensive backs Tyler Brown and Girardi, they're out.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Lyman Wilson, you know, Wisconsin is missing their corner. Bates,
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: they're running back Nate Palmer, and the receiver Coleman, they're questionable.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Iowa city weather, 64 degrees, 50% chance of rain. I mean,
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: this sounds like a big 10 game. The angle is
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: the 36 and a half is one of the lowest
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: totals on the board. And the trends say under my
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: stats say that it should be like 45.9. Two D
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: two really good defenses, two shaky defenses. Oh, sorry. Two
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: shaky offenses. If you're on the under, you're on Figgles
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: October history. If you're on the over, you're just looking
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: at stats and averages. Um, if you got a low total,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: you're looking at probably a field goal game. And if
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: we're looking at a field goal game, I'm expecting this
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: thing to be super tight, right? 10 to seven, 13
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: to 10 kind of game. Uh, if I'm going to
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: get that, I'll take the three in the hook. Give
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: me Wisconsin, Wisconsin plus three and a half. I think
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: this thing is super, super tight, super low scoring. Um,
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: I don't feel great about it. I think this thing's
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: right on the number. I don't think I'm actually going
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: to bet this thing. But for show purposes, we'll go
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: with Wisconsin plus 3.5. Quick reminder, hit that like button,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel, and of course, make sure to
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: drop a comment below. Tell me who you like this week.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: Tell me if I'm dead wrong on some of these.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: I read all the comments, so toss them in there.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: All right, back to the games. 11.30 a.m. Central Time.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: We're going to Piscataway on the Big Ten Network. Michigan
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: at Rutgers. You've got a banged up Michigan team that's
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: laying two touchdowns. It's very, very interesting. Michigan, a 13.5
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: point road favorite, total of 46.5. Opened at 14. I
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: say that. It opened at 12.5 at a couple of books.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: When the majority of the books caught up, it opened
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: at 14. Went up to 14.5. Dropped back down to 13.5.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: Opened at 47.5. It's now 46.5. Indiana beat Michigan last
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: week 13-6. Wolverines covered as a 7.5 point dog. Rutgers
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: got run over by Northwestern 42-14. Now Michigan has won
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: 8 straight in this series. 31-7 in 2023. But they're
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: only 3-4 against the spread in those games. And there's
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: a bit of a look ahead here for both of these.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: Michigan hosts Michigan State next week. Rutgers goes to Wisconsin.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: The stats model has Michigan minus 11.24. Power rating has
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: Michigan minus 10.7. The situation has Michigan minus 10. And
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: the WCE8 has Michigan minus 5.1. That is my eight
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: factors that most correlate with winning. And they don't really
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: like Michigan. And it's hard not... It's not hard to
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: understand why. Because Michigan is number 111 in PPA per
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: drive on offense. Predicted points added. Regulars defense is a problem.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: Success rate, number 130. which you can see right there.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: Run defense PPA is 132nd. Of course, Michigan can't really
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: do anything on offense. They're bad at everything. But Rutgers,
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: they're 33.3 points per game allowed. That's 127th in the country.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: But Michigan is 118 in offensive points per game. It's late. 20.3
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: points per game on offense. Just atrocious. But they have
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: faced really good defenses. Number 15 toughest schedule against defense
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: PPA faced. So, pretty rough there. Turnover margin for Rutgers
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: is 131. They're 133rd in giveaways per game. Michigan is
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: 128th in giveaways per game. This is, I mean, this
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: Michigan offense is rough. Red zone offense for Michigan. Number 127.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: Points per scoring opportunity, 125th. They can't finish drives. They
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: had a goal-to-go situation on the one-yard line against Indiana.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: And took a sack and then missed a field goal.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's what we're looking at here. So they
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: had every opportunity to beat Indiana last week. And that
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: is what it is. Their defensive success rate is number 11.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: So at least we got one side of the ball here.
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: Out of four units, we've got one good one. As
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: far as trends, Rutgers at home since 2021, 29-8 to
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: the over. 15-3 to the over since 2024. Best sample
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: on this card. Rutgers against the spread in October since 2024, 1-8.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: against the spread. Small sample, but 1-8 says a lot.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: October on the road since 2024 is 0-5 against the spread.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: Pretty small. Like, Michigan ain't real good at cover numbers either.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: Michigan missing their defensive end Dom Nichols, their offensive lineman
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: Andrew Sprague, and Blake Frazier. Defensive end Julius Holley, receiver
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: Kendrick Bell. They got two tight ends missing. Safety Rod
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: Moore is questionable. Rutgers is missing their defensive back, Zamir Dawood,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: and their running back, Jashawn Benjamin, is questionable. As far
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: as the betting angle, the question is whether Michigan can
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: score enough to cover 13.5. Wolverines are 118th in scoring.
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: They just got held to 6 by Indiana. And, yeah,
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: Indiana's got a really good defense, but, I mean, they
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: had things just laid up on a platter for them,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: and were not able to do it. Rutgers can't stop anybody.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: Michigan can't finish drives. And the home overs at Rutgers
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: keep cashing. There's the Michigan State game looming next week.
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: At 14.5, I probably would have gone Rutgers. I don't
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: feel great about any of this, but if you were
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: ever going to get your offense feeling better, this would
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: be the spot to do it. I'm going to go
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: against the model and everything. I don't think Rutgers is
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: any good at all. The talent difference here, number 13
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: against number 60. This is the wake up, get the
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: coffee going, get everything going correctly again. I'll take Michigan.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: Michigan minus 13.5. If one of y'all wants to bet
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: the over, more power to you. I wouldn't touch that thing.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I think Michigan's finally going to get some
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: points on the board this week. So Michigan minus 13.5.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: Game number four, Kansas State goes to Boulder to take
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: on the Colorado Buffalo. This was 1 p.m. Central time,
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: a guy's time zone on TNT, or I guess TruTV,
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: whichever one you want to watch on. It's two teams
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: that lost last week. They can't tell you who's playing quarterback, right?
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: Kansas State is a 2.5-point road favorite. The total is 47.5.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: It opened at 2.5 and 48.5, so the total has dropped.
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: The spread has not moved. Kansas State lost 28-17 at
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: Arizona State. They were a 1.5-point favorite there. Arizona State
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: running back Carday Mack went for 159 yards and four touchdowns.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: Colorado lost 57-24 at Oklahoma State.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: And, I.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: Mean, they were up at the half. Like, just crazy.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: Kansas State goes to Oklahoma State next week. Colorado gets,
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: or they go to Arizona State. Kansas State won both
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: meetings recently. They went 0-2 against the spread. It was
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: 24-14 last year. Both of Kansas State's quarterbacks, Avery Johnson
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: and Blake Barnett, they are questionable. Jacob Knuth started at
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: Arizona State, went 26-41 for 194 yards. Here's a split, right?
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: The stats model has Kansas State minus 6.38. Power rating
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: has Kansas State minus 4.4. The situation has Kansas State
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: minus 4.5. And the WCE8 has Colorado by 2.4. Stats total?
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: Got it dead on 52. Market is still sitting at 47.5.
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: But if the quarterback ain't playing, I don't know what
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: to expect from Kansas State's offense. Kansas State, you start
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: looking at interesting numbers. They are number 6 in third
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: down conversion percentage, 54.5%. Their rushing success is number 12.
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: Colorado's turnover margin, 136th. That's the last in the country,
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: or close to it. Number 137 in giveaways per game.
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: But Kansas State, number 132 in takeaways per game. Colorado,
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: they score 20.10 points per game on offense. That's tied
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: for 120th. Their defense is number 112. As far as trends,
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: Kansas State against the spread as a road favorite since 2024,
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: 1-8 against the number. Small sample. Since 2021, 3-11-2. Kansas
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: State against the spread as a favorite since 2024, 7-18
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: against the number. Now, Kansas State missing offensive linemen here.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: They're missing tight end. Colorado is without several receivers. They're
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: running back Michael Welch, two offensive linemen. Their linebacker, Martin.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: There's important injuries all around. To me, this is a
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: coin flip with quarterback questions, right? Like my WCE8 likes Colorado.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: The stats like Kansas State. The market sits in the
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: middle at two and a half. Kansas State has been
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: a terrible favorite, but Colorado gives the ball away too much.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: This is very much pick your poison. I would watch
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: the quarterback news on Friday. If Avery Johnson plays, this
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: number is going to shoot up. If he doesn't, I
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: might would roll Colorado. That's how important the quarterback position
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: is here. I'm just going to make an educated guess
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: because I'm recording this at close to midnight on Monday night.
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: I think Avery Johnson will play. Give me Kansas State
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: minus two and a half on the road. Let me
• 20:43
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• 21:07
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• 21:10
  Speaker 1: qualifying lineup. Now that's prizepix.com or I suggest that you
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: download the app. And remember, when you sign up, use
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: that promo code WCE. Before you jump in, you can
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: check the Where Can I Play page for your state's
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: options and age requirements. It's different everywhere, so make sure
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: that you know what's going on. But offer terms apply,
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: keep it fun, make sure you play responsibly. Check out prizepix.com again.
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: The promo code Game number five, we're going to Provo,
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: Arizona State at BYU, 2.30 p.m. Central Time on Fox.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: BYU just lost their first game of the season. They're
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: laying more than two touchdowns here. 16.5-point home favorite, total
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: of 49.5. It opened at 14.5, and it opened at 50.5
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: for the total. So the line moved two points towards BYU.
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: The total dropped down a point. BYU lost at UCF
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: 39-31 as a 7.5-point favorite. It's their first loss of
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: the year. Arizona State beat Kansas State 28-17 behind the
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: running back Cardi Mack. The look ahead here for BYU
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: is Utah. BYU goes to Salt Lake City next week
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: for the Holy War. Arizona State gets Colorado next week.
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: Arizona State won the last meeting between these two teams,
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: 28-23 in 2024. Boy, that was a heck of a ballgame.
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: Heck of a ballgame. Stats model has BYU minus 19. Right?
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: Power ratings... has BYU minus 15.3. The WCE8 has BYU
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: minus 15.33. The situation has BYU minus 16. BYU is
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: number three in the country in rushing PPA. That's predictive
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: points added. They're number three on third down, which you
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: can see right here. They are number four in havoc
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: rate allowed. Both top running backs, LJ Martin and Sione Moa,
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: are out. ASU is 133rd on 3rd down at 30%. Like,
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: that is atrocious. Absolutely atrocious. 121st in Havoc allowed. They
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: allowed 29.9 points a game. That is 110th. Like, this
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: defense is rough. Rough. BYU against the spread since 2024
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: is 22-10. Arizona State against the spread since 2024 is 21-11-1.
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: You got two cover teams... with a giant number here. BYU,
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: I told you they're missing running backs. ASU, they're missing
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: their defensive back Lyric Rawls, two offensive linemen, tight end Anderson,
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: defensive back Pringle, linebacker Gardner. They're missing some dudes. The
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: weather in Provo, almost a 60% chance of rain, 58 degrees.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: Weather could be a thing. Could lead to a lot
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: of runs. If that's the case, BYU certainly has the
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: advantage there, although Arizona State looked a whole lot better
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: last week running the ball. Two things here pull against
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: each other. BYU has the better team by every model,
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: but they just lost their first game. They're coming back home.
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: Utah is next week. Arizona State has covered two-thirds of
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: its games since 2024. 16.5 is a lot of points
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: for a team that is still kind of licking their
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: wounds and still feeling themselves, and Arizona State can keep
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: this thing relatively close, and it's still kind of be
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: a blowout, right? So 16 and a half might have
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: gone a little too much. I don't know. If this
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: thing was 14, I would like BYU a whole lot more.
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you, like Arizona State, I don't feel good
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: about their quarterback situation. The running back situation does look
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: a lot better than it did. Man, I want to
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: take Arizona State here. Because the situation certainly plays into
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: it with BYU looking ahead to Utah next week. But...
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: Arizona State may not score. We'll trust that. We'll trust
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: this defense here. BYU at home, typically a covering machine.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: This thing hadn't hit 17 yet. Let's give it a
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: go with the home favorite. Show purposes, this is not
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: going to be one of my favorite picks of the week.
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: But as far as the show is concerned, the way
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: that I would go is I would take BYU minus 16.5.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: Game number six, we got two, three, and four teams
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: meeting off in Fort Worth, Kansas. Goes to TCU Saturday, 2.30 p.m.
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: Central Time, God's Time Zone on FS1. And one of
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: these teams is going to be 4-4, the other is
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: going to be 3-5, and fighting for a bowl game. TCU,
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: a 5.5 point home favorite, total of 47.5. It opened 4.5
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: and 48.5. So the line moved a point towards TCU,
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: and the total dropped. Which makes sense, right? Kansas beat
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: Baylor 25-24 last week. Dylan Edwards ran for 156 yards.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: TCU lost at home to West Virginia 24-20 as a
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: 10 point favorite. TCU has won 7-8 defensively. Against Kansas,
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: it's 2016. That includes their last meeting, 38-27 in 2024.
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: Next week, Kansas gets UCF. TCU has to go to Arizona. Whew,
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: that's rough, right? That's Arizona coming off a Texas Tech game.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: Every model here says TCU. TCU by 7.7 in the
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: stats model. Power rating has TCU minus 7.2. WCE8 has
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: TCU minus 6. The situation has TCU minus 8. TCU's
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: defensive success is the reason for this, right? Their defensive
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: success rate is number six in the country. Red zone
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: defense is number seven in the country. Like, it's not bad.
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: Run defense, number seven in PPA per rush. So the
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: thing that Kansas is best at, that's what TCU defends best.
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: But this TCU offense, not good. They can throw the
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: ball a little bit. but they cannot run it to
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: save their lives. They are number 101 in points per
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: game on offense. Kansas is number 55, but the Kansas defense,
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: number 68 in defensive points per game. TCU is number
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: 6 there. Both of these teams have played top 40
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: PPA margin schedule strengths. Strength of schedules. There we go.
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: As far as trends go, Kansas with a total of 45-49.5,
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: 11-2 to the over. TCU against the spread in October,
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: 13-25-1 against the spread all time. And Sonny the Dykes
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: against the spread as a home favorite under 14, 19-8-1.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: Probably should have added to that last week against West Virginia,
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: but alas, it is what it is. Kansas missing their safeties. Cornerback,
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: a running back, linebacker Jaron Willis. TCU is without their
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: running back, Jeremy Payne. Linebacker short. Safety Yates, Corner McGee,
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: and two offensive linemen. The models are lined up here,
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: all of them between 6 and 8 for TCU, so
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: the market is a little bit short here. The counter
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: is that October trend, TCU against the spread in October, again, 13, 25,
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: and 1. Kansas totals have gone over an 11 of 13.
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: This is strength of defense against strength of run game.
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: And while TCU didn't look good against West Virginia last week,
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: I don't think Kansas... I don't trust Kansas to score
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: nearly as easily as I expect West Virginia to score.
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: So in this situation, before TCU gets to the meat
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: of their schedule, uh, I think they're going to handle
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: business at home. They, I don't think Sonny Dyches goes
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: down without a fight. So I think TCU will cover this, uh,
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: TCU minus four and a half. I'm going against the
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: market here. I'm going to trust my models on this. Uh,
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: I think TCU handles the business. I think the defense
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: does what they need to do. And I think they
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: will win this ballgame. So I think they'll cover TCU
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: minus four and a half. Game number seven, college game day,
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: is going to Bloomington, Minnesota at Indiana, 2.30 p.m. Central.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: Time on CBS. Indiana is laying almost 20 points. They
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: are favored by 19.5. The total is 42.5. No movement
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: from the open here. Indiana beat Michigan 13-6 on the road.
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: They did not cover as a 7.5-point closing favorite. Minnesota
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: beat Iowa 13-10 on a walk-off field goal. They won
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: Floyd of Rosedale. That makes this a letdown spot, right?
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: Minnesota beat Indiana 35 to 14 in 2021. They are
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: two and O in the series since 2016. Things have
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: changed slightly for Indiana since then, right? Minnesota, they get
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: UCLA next. Indiana has a bye week and then they've
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: got USC. So this is an interesting spot for, for Minnesota. Um,
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's Michael Merdinger is out. Drake Lindsey is the dude. Like,
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: Drake Lindsey's been awesome. I mean, Minnesota's 5-2. How crazy
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: is that? They beat Iowa, and Lindsey threw for 137 yards.
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: That was it. All of the models agree here on
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: the fact that Indiana is really, really good. Right? They're
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: all right around that number. 19.5 is the market number.
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: The stat spread has Indiana minus 22.4. The power rating
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: has Indiana minus 19.1. WCE8 has Indiana minus 21.37. And
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: the situation has Indiana minus 18.9. The stats total, I've
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: got 48.18. And the total is 42.5. Minnesota's passing success,
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: their passing success rate is 138th. They're number 86 in
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: PPA per pass, number 132 in PPA per rush. And
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: the Minnesota defense may not let them score at all.
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's rough, right? Indiana's defense is serious. Number
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: three in success rate. They allow 12 points a game.
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: That's number two in the country, which you can see
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: down here. There we go. Minnesota is number 83. And
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: offensive points per game, 26.6 there. Indiana is 1-7 against
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: the spread this year. But Indiana is 32-0 straight up
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: as a favorite since 2024. Indiana off and under is
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: 29-12 to the over. I think they could probably open
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: up a can here. Minnesota, they're missing two offensive linemen
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: who are out for the season. Running back Ryan Estrada,
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: the receiver Hayden Moore. And the tight end, Walsh. Indiana
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: has nobody injured. I don't think anybody doubts that Indiana's
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: the better team here. The question is the number, right? 19.5
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: is a lot. Indiana at 1-7 against the spread this year.
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: They haven't lost straight up as a favorite since 2024.
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's offense can't pass. They're in a classic letdown spot
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: after beating Iowa. This team got absolutely humbled after the
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: Michigan game. Got destroyed by Purdue. If Purdue can do that,
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: I fully expect that Indiana can as well. Indiana has
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: played the significantly harder schedule, number 14 in opponent PPA
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: margin schedule. Minnesota, number 78. There's a reason that Minnesota
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: is 5-2, right? There's a reason. They won that trophy
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: last week. I think this is where Indiana finally opens
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: it up. I've been waiting for them to open it up.
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: And they've played really tough competition. Indiana has played really
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: good teams. Michigan's defense was really good last week. Josh
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: Hoover is still kind of dealing with it a little bit,
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: but I think Indiana is going to be able to
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: run the ball here a little bit as well. You
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: see this, number 84 in PPA allowed per rush, number
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: 70 in rushing success rate allowed, number 45 in rushing
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: explosiveness allowed, number 64 in offensive line yards. Indiana can
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: use the running game to open up that passing game
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: on this Minnesota defense. I think Indiana's going to score points,
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: and I think they'll score a lot. Yes, 20 feels
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: like a lot of points, but I'm going to go
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: ahead and take Indiana here. I'm going to follow the
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: stats model. I'm going to follow the WCE8. This thing
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: should be 21. I think it'll get there by close,
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: but for now, show purpose, I will take Indiana minus 19.5.
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: Want extra Winning Cures Everything content and a way to
• 34:22
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• 34:27
  Speaker 1: and become part of the community today.
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: Hi, this is TJ Reeves for Three Dog Thursday, the
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: only digital show that is devoted exclusively to the underdogs
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: in college football, and we're part of the Winning Cures
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: Everything platform right here. What will happen this week for
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: another crazy week, the final week in the month of October?
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: We were 2-2-2 a week ago.
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: We're now 16-6-2 for this month. What will happen with
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: all these underdogs? We've got Arizona, Texas Tech, We've got Wisconsin, Iowa, Florida,
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: Georgia later in the night. Can North Carolina hang in
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: with top-ranked Miami? And what about USC and Ohio State?
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: We'll talk about all of it as Jason Powers joins
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: me on another edition of Three Dog Thursday, where? Right
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: here on the Winning Cures Everything platform.
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: If you're still following along, hit that like button, hit subscribe,
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: tell me in the comments who you're betting on this week.
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: All right, let's get to more games. Game number eight,
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: top 25 ranked Northwestern. It goes to unranked Oregon this week, 2.30 p.m.
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: Central Time on Peacock. Eugene, they were not expecting this.
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: Northwestern is 6-1. The Ducks have a quarterback change. Oregon
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: is a 3.5-point home favorite, total of 49.5. It opened
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: at 3.5 and 50.5. So the total dropped a point,
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: but the line has not moved. Oregon beat Nebraska 17-14.
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: Then they went to Illinois last week and lost 21-10
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: as a 10.5 point favorite. Northwestern beat Rutgers 42-14. The
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: Ducks do have a big look ahead because they got
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: Ohio State on the road next week. Northwestern gets Iowa.
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: Oregon won this matchup last year 34-14. Northwestern did cover
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: as a 25.5 point dog. The fact that Northwestern is
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: going on the road and they're only 3.5 point dogs
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: says a ton about the coaching job that has been
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: done in Evanston. Dante Moore out with a concussion since
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: September 26th. Dylan Rayola starts. Look at the range on this.
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is so wild. My stats model has
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: Oregon minus 6.87. Power rating has Oregon minus 8.9. The
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: situation has Oregon minus 10.5. And then the WCE8, Oregon
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: by only 1.3. Stats total, 52.23. So, you know, slightly
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: higher than the 49.5. Northwestern's turnover margin is number five
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: in the country. They're number three in giveaways per game,
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: number 17 in takeaways per game. Oregon also tied at
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: number 17 in takeaways per game, but they are number
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: 20 in giveaways per game. Northwestern's red zone offense is
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: number two. Red zone defense is number eight. passing success
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: is number seven. I mean, if this were the other
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: way around, Northwestern would be favored. If the numbers were
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: on these different teams, I think the favorite would be flipped.
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: I will say this. The thing that's propping Oregon up
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: as far as power rating, etc., is Oregon's overall talent rank.
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: Northwestern is number 56, Oregon number 4. Oregon, I don't
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: know if these receivers are going to play. Dan Lanning
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: has not said anything about it. Evan Stewart, of course,
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: coming off the DUI and whatnot. We don't know exactly
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: what the situation is. DeCorey Moore is still playing, so
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: he's still going to be probably the best player on
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: the team, on the field, probably. Pretty crazy to think about.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: Aiden Giles kind of gives him a run for his money.
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: Dan Lanning, ATS, off of an ATS loss since 2021, 14-5.
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: Oregon is 2-5 against the spread this year. Northwestern is
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: 4-2 against the number. Oregon, they're missing a bunch of receivers, right?
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: Offensive linemen are out. Defensive back, Aaron Flowers. Northwestern, they're
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: missing their defensive back, Robert Fitzgerald. Tight end, Danicki. Danicki.
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: My Westlap Pirates boys, they'll tell me how you actually
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: say that. The lineman, I'm not even going to try
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: and say that one. And defensive back, Josh Fussell. This
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: comes down to Oregon's wide receivers, right? Rayola is the quarterback.
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: I imagine Northwestern is going to have some kind of
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: a game plan for him because, my gosh, when he
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: came in in that game against Nebraska, I mean, not Nebraska.
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: What was the game before that? UCLA? Was it UCLA
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: that he looked awful? I mean, just rough. Just rough. rough.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: The Ducks are looking at Ohio State next week, too.
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: But at what point do you stop looking ahead and
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: you just have to figure out what you got in
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: front of you? They just fired their offensive coordinator, so
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: we're not sure exactly what we're going to get from
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: Oregon here. Northwestern 6-1 takes care of the ball. They cover. Like,
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: my WCE 8... says that this should be closer to
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: a pick-em than the 10 that the situation likes. I'm
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: very curious about this. Because while it is a look-ahead
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: spot for Oregon, I also don't think they're good enough
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: to be looking ahead over anybody. This is still a
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: top 25 team that's coming into Eugene. And yes, Oregon
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: is the more talented team. Oregon's been the more talented
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: team over everybody that they've played thus far. So.
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: If you bet Oregon, you're betting that the talent ends
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: up showing up at some point. And the issue for
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: this offense is they've not been able to run the
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: ball at all. Number 78 in yards per rush, number
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: 95 in PPA per rush. The offensive line has not
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: shown up. Number 78 in offensive line yards. The issue
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: for Northwestern is that their defensive line has not been
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: good enough to stop hardly anybody. And it's not like
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: they've been playing really difficult rushing offenses. number one 36
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: in rushing PPA faced Oregon has played just an insane
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: collection of teams. So number six and opponent PPA margin,
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: number two and PPA faced on offense. Number, uh, eight
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: in rushing PPA faced, which Northwestern will be able to
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: run the ball here. Like I, I have every belief
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: that they're going to be able to run the ball. Some, um,
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: They don't throw it much, less than 40% of the time,
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: so they're going to run it. I'm curious. Chip Kelly,
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: going back to Oregon, he didn't always have a bunch
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: of success when he was at UCLA going back to Oregon.
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: When he went back to Eugene with Ohio State, they
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: didn't win that game either. I wonder if he overdoes it,
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: if he thinks too much about this one. All of
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: the stats, all the models except for the WCE8 say
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: to take Oregon here. And I don't like it. I'm
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: not going to do it. I'm going to take Northwestern. One,
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: because I like my Westlap Pirates boys. And two, because
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: Oregon has given me zero reason to believe in them. Yes,
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: they still have talent. This feels like Texas A & M, right?
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: Until they show me something, I can't go with them.
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: So I will take Northwestern to cover here. I think
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: Northwestern can win the ballgame. But if they don't, I
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: think it's because Chip Kelly probably overthought the room a
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: little bit. So Northwestern plus three and a half is
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: my pick. Game number nine, 2.45 p.m. Central Time on ESPN.
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: An undefeated Utah team gets to walk into the building
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: at Nippard, where Texas Tech just took only their second
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: loss since the beginning of the 2025 season. Only their
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: second Big 12 loss since the start of the 2025 season.
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: Utah a six and a half point road favorite at Cincinnati.
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: Total 57 and a half. It opened at seven and
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: 55 and a half. Total went up two. The line
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: came down half a point. Very interesting. Utah is 7-0.
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: They beat Houston 21-13 as a 6.5 point favorite at
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: home last week. That was a late night game in
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: Salt Lake. It makes sense. College game day was there, etc.
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: Both of these teams kind of in letdown spots, I
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: guess you could say. Cincy beat Texas Tech 37-24 as
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: a 10.5 point dog. So it's certainly a letdown spot
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: for Cincy off the upset. Um, And you've also got
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: to look ahead for Utah. You're coming down off of
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: the college game day win at home over Houston where
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: you didn't look good for most of that game. And
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: you've got to play BYU coming to Salt Lake City
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: next week. And right in the middle of that, Utah
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: gets to go to Nippert. I don't know if I
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: like that. Since he has to go to Houston next week,
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: not much of a look ahead really. Utah won this
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: matchup last year 45-14. My WCE8 has Cincy by 2.8. Right?
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: The stats model has Utah minus 9.69. Power ratings has
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: Utah minus 7.1. The situation has Utah minus 6.6. Very interesting.
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: Utah's PPA margin is number 8. Their running PPA numbers
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: is number 5. Let's see. Right there. And their third down...
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: Conversion number is number 9. Passing success number 6. Defense
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: allows 14.6 points per game. That is number 14.60, so
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: number 9 in the country. Cincinnati's defense is number 95
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: in points per game. Cincy's pass defense is 107th. Their
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity allowed is 123rd, and Utah's number
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: 15 in finishing drives there. On the other side, Cincinnati
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: number 11 in points per scoring opportunity, but Utah is
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: number 14. The Cincinnati defense is not good. Number 115
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: in predicted points added allowed per drive. Number 100 in
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: defensive success rate. But when you start looking at who
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: the teams have played, one, Cincinnati is number 54 in
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: current strength of schedule at Sagarin. Number 65 in current
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule for Utah. But... If you break it
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: down per PPA margin, average PPA margin for the team
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: Cincy has faced is number 30. The average opponent PPA
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: margin that Utah has faced is number 109. So there's
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: a stark difference in the quality of teams that these
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: two teams have faced. Cincy is 5-2, Utah 7-0. But
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: both teams are pretty good at covering the spread. Cincy 4-3,
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: Utah is 6-1. Morgan Scali against the spread... Since 2024,
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's it. 6-1 against the spread. Small number. Well,
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: I guess 7-1 if you count the bowl game, right?
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: Cincy against the spread as a dog since 2021, 8-19-1
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: against the number. On the total, Cincy in October, 9-21-1
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: to the under. Utah, with a total of 55-59.5, 7-17
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: to the under. And my stats total here is... Almost
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: at 55, 54.95. That's two and a half points under. Yeah,
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: I'm intrigued. Injuries, since he's missing the same people that
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: they were last week, I don't think there's anything too crazy.
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: Utah is going to be without their defensive tackle, Wallace,
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: who is suspended, and their offensive lineman, Kelvin Obot. I
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: look at these, I look at the number again. Utah,
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: six and a half point road favorite, total 57 and
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: a half. It's still there. All right, so let's look
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: at betting angles, right? Like, I like this game for
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: the total for sure. I like the under here. Utah undefeated.
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: They got BYU coming up. Cincinnati off that upset of
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech. The total moved up two points, even though
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: the stats say 55. I know the offenses are good.
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: I would not expect the same efficiency. Cincinnati in October
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: has been an under team. Utah in this total range
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: has been too. So I like the under 57.5. As
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: far as the total, Utah going to Cincinnati. They got
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: BYU next week. They had Houston last week. Cincy coming
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: off that big win, you know, you would think neither
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: one of these teams really turns the ball over much.
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: Turnover margin is pretty equal. Cincy, a bunch of penalties, etc.,
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: I think the Cincinnati offense can score here. I think
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: they can put up some points. If Colorado can stay
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: within a number against Utah, I think Utah going in
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: the road certainly makes a difference here. I don't think
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: Cincy wins this one, but I certainly think they keep
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: it closer than 6.5. Why not? Let's take the home dog.
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: Cincy plus 6.5. Game number 10, Oklahoma State goes to Ames, Iowa,
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: 6 p.m. Central Time on FS1 Saturday. You've got a
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: Cowboys offense that's cooking. You've got a Cyclones team that's
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: coming off of a 36-point loss and just got taken
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: behind the woodshed in Tucson. Oklahoma State right now an 8.5-point
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: road favorite, total of 57.5. It opened at 10 and 56.5,
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: so the line moved a point and a half towards
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: Iowa State, and the total actually went down. which is
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: not something I think you're going to see very often
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: for an Eric Morris game. Oklahoma State beat Colorado last
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: week 57-24. Iowa State lost 39-3 at Arizona. The look
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: ahead is on the Cowboys. They got Kansas State next week.
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: Is that really much of a look ahead? I don't
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: guess it is. Iowa State goes to Baylor. Iowa State
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: won this matchup last year 20-13. Oklahoma State did cover
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: as a 14-point dog, but that Oklahoma State team was
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: way different. Way different. My WCE8 model has Iowa State
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: favored by. 07. That's a pick-em against a market of
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State minus 8.5. Again, the number has come down some, but, man,
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: my stats model has Oklahoma State minus 9.67. The power
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: rating has Oklahoma State minus 8.3. The situation has Oklahoma
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: State minus 7.5. Stats, like, The stats total has it 54.88.
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: I think the only way that this number doesn't hit
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: the over is if Oklahoma State, or I guess if
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: Iowa State just doesn't score at all. And I think
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: they probably should be able to on this defense, but
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: defense has played a lot better. Iowa State's offensive success
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: is number 9. They score 40 a game. That's number
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: 8 in the country. Havoc allowed is number 13. This
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: offense is awesome. Iowa State's offensive success is number 120.
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: They cannot run the ball. Number 120 in rushing success,
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: number 98 in passing success. Red zone offense for Iowa
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: State is number one in the country. They convert every
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: time they get down there, but they're only number 42
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: in red zone touchdown rate. So, you know, as far
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: as trends, Oklahoma State against the spread off a cover
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: since 2021, 23-9-1. Iowa State against the spread in October. 24-13-2.
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: Eric Morris in October, since 2024, 8-0 to the over.
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: Small sample, but still. 8-0 to the over, not a
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: single under. Iowa State as a dog, 14-30 to the under.
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: Iowa State's missing some dudes, right? Crawford, the defensive end,
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: their corner, Nagui, receiver, Overby. They got three defensive linemen
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: that are banged up. The safety, Alls, the running back, Ala,
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: they're out for the season. Oklahoma State, they're missing their
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: safety and defensive tackle, Landon Dean. My WCE8 sees a pick-em.
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: The market says 8.5, right? It's a big gap. Oklahoma
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: State has covered after covering, and they just continue to
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: do it. They look so good right now. Iowa State
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: has a— they' ve played a significantly tougher strength of schedule. But, man, like,
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: I have— Zero faith in this team after last week
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: because Arizona just demolished them. I'm so curious about this.
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: It was 9.5, and it came back down. And there's
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: a lot of love for Jimmy Rogers, and I understand that.
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: But I don't know who would want to get in
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: front of this train. Oklahoma State is dogging everybody. They
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: didn't look good in the first half last week. What
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: is their first half point margin? Both of them. Outside
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: the top 90 in first half point margin, Oklahoma State
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: number four in second half point margin, and Iowa State
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: number 65. I know the numbers say otherwise. Give me
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State on the road. I know it's another road favorite.
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: I don't feel good about it, but I ain't getting
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: in front of this train. Oklahoma State might be a wagon.
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State minus eight and a half. Are you tired
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: of sore knees or joints slowing you down? Ghost Leaves
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: uses built-in kinesiology tape technology to give you support, reduce pain,
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: and help you recover faster. Use code WCE for 15%
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: off over at ghostleaves.com. All right, we got five more games.
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: These are all in the Saturday night slot. Game number 11,
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State goes to Austin, Texas. They're going to take
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: on the Longhorns 6.30 p.m. Central Time on ESPN. Texas
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: is laying 20.5. Well, yeah, 20.5. Texas is a 20.5-point
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: home favorite, total of 50.5. There's been no movement on this.
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: I can't blame anybody for not wanting to touch this thing.
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, my goodness, Texas did beat Ole Miss last week,
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: 34-27 as a three-point favorite. They should have won by more.
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: They were up 24-3 at one point. Like, what are
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: we doing? Mississippi State lost to Oklahoma State. Oklahoma, not
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State. But Oklahoma beat them 23-15 in Starkville. The
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: look ahead to Missouri, I guess, because Texas goes to
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: Columbia next week. Mississippi State goes to Vanderbilt. Texas won
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: this matchup in Starkville last year, 45-38. Mississippi State did
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: cover as an 8.5 point dog. Blake Chapin was the
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: quarterback for that one. State is 2-0 against the spread
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: against Texas. Way small sample size, but still. My stats
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: model has Texas minus 18.2. Power rating has Texas minus 18.1.
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: The situation has Texas minus 17.9, and the WCE8 has
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: Texas minus 9.67. Stats total, 52.99, so slightly over here.
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: But a lot of these state numbers, especially the offensive
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: numbers for sure, had Kamario Taylor playing, and he's got
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: turf toe, and I don't think he's going to play.
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: So Mississippi State's rushing success is number 25. Texas, number
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: 13 in rushing success allowed. Mississippi State's defensive success, number 104.
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: And Texas, I mean, their offensive success is number 75.
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State, number 121 in penalties, in penalty yardage per game. Texas,
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: number 105. So there's not like a big difference between
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: these two. State, better on special teams. Texas number one
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: in overall talent. Mississippi State number 32. And it's probably
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: less than that if they don't have Fluff Bothwell and
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: Camario Taylor. Texas 1-5 against the spread this year. Like,
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: they have not done a very good job of covering.
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: They did last week. But even when they beat Ohio State,
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: they didn't cover. So, it is what it is. But
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: they're 1-5-1. State is 4-3 against the spread. But I
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: don't think they've covered a single game since before the
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: Alabama game. Yeah, they've lost three straight. They're not looking
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: great right now. Mississippi State against the spread on the
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: road since 2024, 9-3. State road games are 16-28 and
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: 1 to the under. Texas still got Colin Simmons out.
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: Richard Wesley's out. Running back Hollywood Smothers is out. Offensive
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: lineman Trevor Goosby out for the season. That's new. Receiver
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: Cam Coleman, questionable. Mississippi State corner Jet Jefferson is questionable,
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: and the safety Isaac Smith and linebacker Jalen Smith are
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: out on this. Everything on this sheet, says Texas. But 20.5
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: is a massive number. And my WCE8, the newest metric,
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: has Texas closer to 10. With Texas 1-5 against the
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: spread this year, the Longhorns missing both edge rushers and
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: a running back. Mississippi State has covered on the road.
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: It's just so hard to bet on this Mississippi State
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: team when you know Kamario Taylor is not healthy. But
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: do you trust Texas to score points? Like, probably against...
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: If they were going to score on any SEC defense,
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: it would be this one. Especially the passing game. Like,
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: we talked about Florida's passing defense being bad. Mississippi State,
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: number 120 in QBR allowed... Number 111 in passing success
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: rate allowed. Like, I could see Texas finally opening up
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: and hitting some of those deep passes. If you don't
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: have Cam Coleman to throw to, you still got Ryan Wingo.
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: You still got dudes. I'll try them again. Give me
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: Texas as the home favorite. Minus 20.5. I can't bet
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: on this Mississippi State team without Kamario Taylor. Puckett ain't
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: getting it done. We'll go Texas minus 20.5 here. Game
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: number 12, Georgia Tech goes to Pitt. 6.30 p.m. Central
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: Time on ESPN2. You got a backup quarterback at home
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: against the Georgia Tech defense that is just hurt, right?
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: Pitt right now a 7.5 point home favorite, total of 53.5.
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: It opened at 7 and at 52.5. So, you know,
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: it went up to 54.5 and then it came back
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: down to 53.5. I opened at seven, went down to
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: pit six and a half. It's now up to pit
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: seven and a half at home. The pit numbers are
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: crazy because the Mason Heinzel numbers were so good. And
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: they have fallen off. But I mean, they're still 45th
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: in PPA margin. They just at one point, this team
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: was five and oh, they've lost three straight. They're four
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: and four against the spread now. But Georgia Tech is
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: one and six. against the spread. Georgia Tech, 2-5, they
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: lost 49-27 to Boston College as a 6.5 point favorite.
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: Pitt lost 52-23 at Miami. Like, Pitt won this game
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: last year, 42-28 in Atlanta. They broke up Georgia Tech's
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: undefeated season. So it's a bit of a revenge spot.
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech gets Louisville next. Pitt has a bye week.
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: And then Florida State. The stats model has Pitt by 14.
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: Like 14.07. Power rating has Pitt minus 11.5. The situational
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: spot has Pitt minus 9.4. The WCE8 has Pitt minus 8.47.
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: Stats total is 53.64, so it's really close to the
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: total as well. Georgia Tech's defensive success is 110th. Rushing
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: success allowed is 127th. Pitt's not great at running the ball,
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: but they're not awful. Number 52 in rushing success. They
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: ought to have plenty of success here. The passing numbers
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: have dropped off quite a bit, but even with the
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: backup quarterback, they still haven't dropped that much. Like, you
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: look back at these games, and so Pitt has played
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: the tougher schedule. They played the tougher defenses. They played
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: the tougher offenses. Pitt has just played a more difficult
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: schedule overall, and yet Sagarin would have you believe that
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: they are pretty close. Georgia Tech 56, Pitt 53 in
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: current strength of schedule. Look, I do my own. The
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: opponent PPA margin, Pitt number 36, Georgia Tech number 56,
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: and yet that Georgia Tech defense is just rough. They're
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: so rough. Their defensive line is hurt. Pitt's defensive success
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: is number eight. There we go. Number two against the run.
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: Not that Georgia Tech is any good at that. The
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: one spot would be throwing the football for Georgia Tech,
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: number 48 in QBR. That Pitt defense is number 106,
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: number 47 in yards per attempt. Pitt defense is number 123.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: Passing explosiveness, they're pretty equal, both inside the top 50.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Pitt's number 130 in penalties, penalty yardage.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: But Georgia Tech's number 113, so there's not like a
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: huge thing here. They're both equal on special teams efficiency,
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: both number 54. Overall talent rank, Georgia Tech is better,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: but they certainly haven't played like it. Brent Key against
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: the spread as a dog since 2021 is 19-8 against
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: the spread. Pitt laying 7-9.5 at home, 1-7 against the spread.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: Small sample, but they're not good at covering. Georgia Tech
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: as a dog since 2024, 3-9 to the under. So
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: the under would kind of make sense here. Georgia Tech
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: is missing defensive tackles, defensive end, running back Hosley, the
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: safety Riley, corner Daquan White, defensive tackle Vincent Carroll-Jackson, Jordan
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: Walker is a game-time decision. Pitt is going to be
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: without the running back Turner, their defensive back Allen Bryant,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: two tight ends, and Rashawn Murray is a game-time decision.
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: The stats love Pitt. They've got the better defense. The
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: problem is the quarterback, right? Laying a touchdown at home
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: has been bad for Pitt. But Georgia Tech's defense is
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: a sieve. I mean, it's just... Their defense is so bad.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: Brent Key teams, as dogs, typically cover. But I don't
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: know how you could possibly look at this and feel
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: good about betting Georgia Tech. Especially, well, just period. Brent
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: Key has been covering his dog at a 70% clip,
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: and I'm still doubting him. I'm going to go with
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: the home favorite here. Pitt minus 7.5, I believe is
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: the number right now. I do like the under. 7.5,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: like touchdown and hook. Yeah, screw it. I think Pitt
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: has been waiting for something at home. They do have
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: a good track record against Georgia Tech. Give me Pitt.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: Give me Pitt minus 7.5. Game number 13, Miami goes
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: 2 at North Carolina Saturday night. This is the big
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: one on ABC, 6.30 p.m. Central Time in Chapel Hill.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, primetime spot, Miami 7-0. They're scoring 49 points
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: a game. Miami is a 15.5-point road favorite, total of 51.5 here.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: It opened 16.5, so the line has moved a point
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: towards North Carolina. Miami beat Pitt 52-23 last week. They covered.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: North Carolina lost outright at home to Syracuse last week
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: as a 7.5-point favorite, 31-30. The look ahead here, the
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: reason why this number is down so low and why
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: people have been betting North Carolina, I believe is because
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: Miami has Notre Dame next week. They go to South Bend.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: North Carolina goes to UConn. these ain't the same, right?
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: North Carolina won the last meeting 41-31 in 2023. They
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: are 6-2 against Miami since 2016. This is a different
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: version of Miami, right? The stats model has Miami minus 22.54.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: Power rating has Miami minus 18.4. The situation has Miami
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: minus 18.1. The WCE8, this new metric, Very interesting. It's
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: got Miami minus 11.13. Stats total, it's got the total 53.81,
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: so slightly over. Miami scores 49 points a game. That's
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: number one in the country. PPA per pass is number one.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: Third down is number five, which, there we go. And
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, number 115. I mean, not good. Their defense
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: ain't great on third down at all. Uh, the havoc
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: rate for North Carolina, number one, 22. So they can't
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: get after the quarterback. Miami's red zone defense number, number one,
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: which there we go. Number one there. Uh, North Carolina
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: scores 24.4 points per game. That's 96th in the country.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: Miami's defense is number 11 at giving up 15.3 points
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: per game. Um, Yeah, the secondary's thin for North Carolina.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: That's probably not a good thing. North Carolina against the
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: spread at home since 2024, 3-12-1 against the number. Miami
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: against the spread since 2024, 23-12. Mario Cristobal against the
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: spread against the ACC team since 2021. It's only 14-24.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: They have been a lot better recently. Miami's still got
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: some of the same guys out. They're still kind of
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: banged up. Right? Linemen, defensive backs, whatever. North Carolina missing
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: defensive backs Trey Miller and Jacob Weatherspoon. Receiver Chapman, who
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: suspended two defensive linemen down. Caleb Cost and Peyton Waters
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: are game-time decisions. Miami is the best offense in the country.
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: And North Carolina's defense cannot get off the field. But,
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: with Notre Dame coming up, 15.5 is a lot to
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: lay on the road with Notre Dame coming up next. Like,
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: North Carolina 3-12-1 against the spread at home since 2024.
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: Miami has been way better in that span. And while
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: I understand the look ahead spot, I understand that North
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: Carolina has played a much stronger strength schedule. I don't
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: believe that they have the hosses to be able to
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: keep up here. I think Miami, Miami first half probably
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: is going to be your best bet. Yeah, first half
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: point margin. Miami number two. North Carolina number 47. Miami
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: second half number nine. And North Carolina 101. I don't
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: think this offense can keep up, and I think that
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: Miami is going to do whatever they want to to
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: this North Carolina secondary. Give me Miami. Minus 15.5. I
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: think people will come to their senses eventually, but just
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: because this thing is an ABC game in Chapel Hill, etc.,
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: we all kind of, I say we all, A lot
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: of us thought the same thing with Clemson. Like, oh,
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: they'll show up for this one. I think we saw
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: what North Carolina is last week. Steve Vangeli was carving
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: them up. I think Darian Minter does the same. Miami
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: minus 15 and a half. Shirts, hoodies, hats, and more.
• 1:08:12
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• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: your favorite college football show today. Just visit winnicureseverything.com slash
• 1:08:21
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• 1:08:25
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• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: miss an episode. Of course, make sure that you leave
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: a five-star review. And don't forget, it's available everywhere you
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: get podcasts. All right, we've got two more games to go.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: Make sure, again, hit the like button, subscribe to the channel.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: Of course, jump in and leave a comment. It helps
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: the show more than you think it does. I promise.
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: All right, let's finish this thing up. We got a
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: new version of the Pac-12 after dark. This one on
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: the CW, 9 p.m. Central Time. Texas State goes to
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: Boise State. And this one on the blue turf. a
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: total that's higher than your blood pressure on this right
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: boise state in 11 and a half point home favorite
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: total of 63 and a half it opened at 12
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: and a half open 65 and a half for the
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: total so the total has dropped two and the spread
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: has dropped one so there's a little bit of texas
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: state love in the market which there has been all
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: year and I get it, although I am curious, now
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: that the Baylor job is open, you've got guys like G.J. Kinney,
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: guys like Jeff Traylor, like, hmm, what are we looking
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: at here? Are they going to be more focused on
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: trying to get that job? We'll see. Texas State beat
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: Utah State 20-17 last week. They were a 14.5 point
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: favorite and did not cover. Boise won 31-10 at Washington State.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: They did cover. Texas State goes to Oregon State next week.
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: Boise goes to Colorado State. There's no meeting in the
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: database since 2016, so this is a brand new Pac-12 matchup.
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: The stats model has Boise minus 12.54. The power rating
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: has Boise minus 10.2. The situational spot has Boise minus 11.6,
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: and the WCE8 has Boise State minus 4.93. Stats total
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: I've got is 57.5, so definitely under the market on
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: the total, like six points of value on that thing.
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: Texas State's pass success is number one. Their third down
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: offense is number two in the country. Third down conversion
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: percentage right there. The issue for them is that Boise
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: State is number eight in third down defense. And passing
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: success rate defense for Boise is number 32. I mean,
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: good gracious. The Texas State red zone offense, number 132.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: They're number 86 in red zone touchdown rate. Big reason why...
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: is they are number 92 in giveaways per game. So
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: they get down there, and then they give the ball away.
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: Boise's PPA per pass is number 14. Texas State defense,
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: number 105. Texas State allows 30 points a game. That's
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: number 111. Texas State against the spread in October, on
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: the road, 4-15 against the spread all time in the database. G.J.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: Kinney against the spread in October since 2021, 2-11 against
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: the spread. Now, Spencer Danielson against the spread is a
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: home favorite under 14 points since 2021. Really, he's only
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: been the coach for a few years. But he's 6-0
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: against the spread when he's a home favorite under 14 points.
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, that should tell you all you need to
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: know right there. Texas State missing a defensive lineman, defensive back, linebackers.
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: The running back, Jackson, is a game-time decision. Boise State
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: missing their receiver, Ben Ford, and the lineman, Rasmussen. The
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: total feels like the story. 63.5 is pretty high. The
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: stats say it should be 57.5. Texas State's offense has
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: been great between the 20s and awful in the red zone.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: If you look, number 86 in points per scoring opportunity
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: for Texas State and their defense, number 108 in points
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: allowed per scoring opportunity. Boise pretty good on both sides.
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: Boise at home as a favorite has been perfect for Danielson.
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: But my WCE model that has actually back-tested pretty well,
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: it's got Boise by like 5. It's a pretty big
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: gap for the dog. The other stats all tend to
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: like Boise State here. Who am I to go against
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: Spencer Danielson at home when he's a favorite of less
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: than 14? Texas State can be good. But man, they
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: are wildly inefficient and they give the ball away at
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: the worst times. Boise is lining them up at this point.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: This thing's on the blue turf. Give me Boise. Boise
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: minus 11.5. I believe that was the total, or the
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: actual spread right here. Yeah, 11.5 point favorite. Total, I'd
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: probably go over, but also I don't know how many
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: Texas State's going to score. I think that Boise defense
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: is pretty good. And I do think that they will
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: take the ball away because Boise is number... Eh, maybe
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: they won't. Number 89 in takeaways per game. I do
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: know Boise's not going to give them the ball, though.
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: Not a huge difference as far as opponent PPA margin,
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: number 85 and number 93. Both teams, eh, kind of covering.
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: They've covered three times each. Yeah. This feels like Boise.
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: Give me Boise minus 11.5 at home over Texas State.
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: Last game on the board, the nightcap here, Fresno hosting
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: Oregon State, 10 o'clock Central Time on USA Network. Both
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: of these teams coming off of a bye. Oregon State
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: a 5.5 point road favorite here, total of 57.5. It
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: opened at 7, so the line has moved 1.5 points
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: towards Fresno State. Oregon State beat Washington State 48-30 their
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: last time out. Fresno lost to San Diego State 26-23.
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: That was their second straight loss. Fresno won last year
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: in Corvallis 36-27. Oregon State gets Texas State next. Fresno
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: goes to Utah State. Did not really look ahead spot here,
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: you know. The stats model has Oregon State minus 5.36.
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: Power rating has Oregon State minus 4.1. The situation has
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: Oregon State minus 4. And the WCE8 has Oregon State
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: minus 4.7. So it would make sense that this thing
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: has gone from 6.5 down to 5.5. But is that
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: far enough? Oregon State scores 42.7 points per game. That
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: is good for number 4 in the country. The Fresno
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: defense is pretty good, though. The numbers don't necessarily show it.
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: Number 85 in defensive success rate. Number 84 in PPA allowed. Sorry,
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: number 52 in defensive PPA allowed per drive. But they're
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: number 40 in defensive points per game allowed. And part
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: of that might be pace of play. They are number
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: 110 in plays per minute. Oregon State is number 44
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: in plays per minute. Oregon State, not as explosive as
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: you would think. Number 67 in passing explosiveness, number 118
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: in rushing explosiveness. Their offensive success is number 8 in
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: the country. Rushing success is number 7 against the Fresno
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: Rush defense this 97th. Fresno's turnover margin is number 7.
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: They don't give the ball away. They're pretty good at
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: generating turnovers. Third fewest penalties in the FBS. Special teams
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: are number 6 here. So there's a lot of things
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: that Fresno State does really well. Oregon State number 117
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: in special teams efficiency. Fresno against the spread is a
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: home dog. 10-2-1 against the spread all time in the database.
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: Oregon State laying under 7 on the road since 2021.
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: 1-7 against the spread. Fresno off of a bye. Since 2021,
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: 3-11 to the under. Oregon State missing a few guys.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: Their linebacker Shaw, their defensive back Witten, defensive back Ayers
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: here is suspended. Fresno is going to be without Ramirez,
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: the running back, the defensive back Wilson, and two offensive linemen.
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: It's late night, a lot of points, two teams off
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: a bye. Oregon State's offense is for real. They are
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: so much fun to watch. Scoring 42.7 a game. But
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: Fresno is a home dog. Again, 10-2-1 against the spread.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: Fresno does have a special teams edge. Those are the
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: kind of things that keep you in ballgames. This is
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: certainly the buy low spot on, or the sell high.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: Excuse me, good gracious. This is the sell high spot
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: on Oregon State. I trust the market. I trust my
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: stats models. All of them say that Fresno should cover here.
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: I'm going to follow it. Give me Fresno at home
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: plus 5.5. I don't think that... Yeah, neither one of
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: these teams has played a very good schedule at all.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: Number 127, number 129 in PBA margin. That's wild. That's wild.
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: I think Fresno can hang. Coming off a bye. Circle
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: the wagons game. Certainly feels like it. Fresno plus five
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: and a half will be the show pick. A quick reminder,
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: if you enjoyed this, of course, subscribe to the channel.
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: Make sure you like it. And make sure to leave
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: a comment. Let me know your thoughts on the show
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: and what your picks are going to be. Don't forget
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: about buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures. I'll have recaps, the game notes
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: from these games that I covered, all the different stat
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: sheets that you saw, all the kind of stuff that
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: we covered today and in the 10 best show. Yeah,
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: lots of stuff there. Let's hit the record recap. Last
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: week in Week 8, across all the games, the show
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: picks went 18 and 13, model went 20 and 11,
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: and the dogs went 6 and 4. Way better than
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: Week 7. For the season, the show back up a
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: little bit. Show picks are 112 and 99. That's 53.1%.
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: The model, 114 and 97. That's 54%. Dogs, 48 and 41.
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: That is 53.9%. And as far as the best bets,
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: go over at buy me a coffee let's see I
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: had that thing pulled up here thus far on the season,
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: as far as best bets go, which you can get
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: over at thebuymeacoffee.com slash winningcures. But from August through now, overall,
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: I went 9-2 against the spread last week on the
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: best picks. And let's see, I'm up 8 units on
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: the year. Looking at the breakdown. Let's see. 36-23-3 against
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: the spread. 10-6 on team totals. And 1-1 betting totals.
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: I don't really bet totals. That's not my thing. I
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: let Kyle Hunter handle that. He's awesome. And I'm not
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: just going to give you his picks. If you want
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: his picks, you can go over to his thing. But
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: 36-23-3 against the spread in team totals. I'm 10-6. That's
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: pretty good. That's pretty good. Not too shabby. All right.
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: Let's see. With that said, yeah, let's get out of here.
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: Thank you all for watching. Again, if you want the notes,
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: the recaps, the bonus posts, the stat sheets, all that
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: kind of stuff, become a member at BuyMeAgot, not a supporter.
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: Join the membership. Both of them are the same. They're
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: both $ 5 a month. But if you become a member,
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: then you get emailed all the posts. You get access
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: to all the posts, all that kind of stuff. So
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: do that. BuyMeACoffee.com slash winningcures. With that said, I think
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: we are done here for the week. Don't forget about
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: 3-0 Thursday. On Thursday morning, TJ and Jason are rolling
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: right now in, what do they, I think he called it, Locktober.
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're doing it up. They call it whatever
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: they want to. They keep winning. So check them out
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: 9 a.m. Central Time right here. And with that said,
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: take care of yourself. Take care of each other. God
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: bless college football. Hopefully all of your tickets cash this week.
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a
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• 1:20:53
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