Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / Florida’s Wild Primary and How to Know When It’s Time to Switch Your Investments!

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Florida’s Wild Primary and How to Know When It’s Time to Switch Your Investments! · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:03
  We have so much to talk to you about today.
• 0:05
  Last night's primary election,
• 0:07
  we have all the results and,
• 0:08
  uh,
• 0:09
  really good night.
• 0:10
  And then out of that night came a new constitutional amendment.
• 0:14
  I wanna talk to you about.
• 0:16
  We'll do that in a little bit.
• 0:17
  We have every single position that I took in the prediction markets on this,
• 0:20
  uh,
• 0:20
  primary night and how they all played out.
• 0:22
  And I have a brand new segment.
• 0:24
  We're starting it off today.
• 0:26
  I never thought I'd need this,
• 0:27
  but I apparently do.
• 0:29
  It's called Instaell.
• 0:30
  We'll tell you all about that
• 0:32
  coming up.
• 0:47
  Quite a profitable evening
• 0:49
  last night for many of our viewers,
• 0:51
  listeners,
• 0:52
  members of PredictableShow.com.
• 0:54
  If you wanna be one of them,
• 0:56
  if you wanna be making money on these elections,
• 0:58
  if you wanna look at prediction markets as a way to be part of your portfolio,
• 1:01
  maybe a way to
• 1:02
  Uh,
• 1:03
  take yourself on a little vacation,
• 1:04
  and pay for a steak dinner,
• 1:06
  uh,
• 1:06
  who knows?
• 1:07
  Whatever it is,
• 1:08
  we would love you to be with us at predictableShow.com.
• 1:11
  Things went well last night.
• 1:13
  It's nice to see there wasn't any Francesca Hong nastiness.
• 1:17
  None of that showed up.
• 1:18
  Lots of good things happened.
• 1:19
  We'll get into that here,
• 1:21
  uh,
• 1:21
  as we go.
• 1:21
  And you should know,
• 1:22
  by the way,
• 1:23
  We are just a,
• 1:24
  I mean,
• 1:24
  we are 76 days away
• 1:26
  from the midterm elections,
• 1:27
  76 days.
• 1:29
  That's what,
• 1:29
  2.5 months?
• 1:30
  That's it.
• 1:31
  2.5 months until we're on election day.
• 1:33
  And you might say,
• 1:34
  gosh,
• 1:34
  2.5 months until I vote.
• 1:35
  No,
• 1:36
  probably not for most of you,
• 1:37
  honestly,
• 1:38
  voting starts in 30 days.
• 1:41
  Early voting starts in 30
• 1:43
  days.
• 1:46
  One of the big
• 1:47
  themes of this election was,
• 1:49
  hey,
• 1:49
  you know,
• 1:49
  Republicans,
• 1:50
  if they're gonna be competitive in this,
• 1:52
  uh,
• 1:52
  in,
• 1:52
  in an election like this,
• 1:53
  they need to make sure they turn these things around.
• 1:55
  Time is turning,
• 1:56
  uh,
• 1:57
  you know,
• 1:57
  the clock's ticking pretty quickly on a lot of that stuff.
• 2:00
  So we will see how this all plays out.
• 2:02
  Uh,
• 2:02
  here is what we have left in the primary season.
• 2:04
  I have these little cards.
• 2:05
  I've been giving you 4 dates,
• 2:07
  basically this entire primary season.
• 2:09
  This is the last one,
• 2:10
  the last one we're gonna make.
• 2:11
  I feel
• 2:13
  I feel like I'm losing something.
• 2:16
  August 25th,
• 2:16
  Oklahoma,
• 2:17
  the runoff,
• 2:18
  that's next week on Tuesday.
• 2:19
  We will have,
• 2:20
  uh,
• 2:20
  so,
• 2:20
  I think live coverage of that one.
• 2:22
  We'll stream it.
• 2:23
  We do,
• 2:24
  because we have,
• 2:24
  uh,
• 2:25
  Mike Maizey,
• 2:26
  uh,
• 2:26
  on the,
• 2:26
  uh,
• 2:27
  in that gubernatorial race.
• 2:28
  That's the one we've been watching relatively closely.
• 2:30
  So that's next Tuesday.
• 2:31
  We'll get into that.
• 2:32
  September 1st,
• 2:32
  Massachusetts,
• 2:33
  September 8th,
• 2:34
  New Hampshire and Rhode Island.
• 2:35
  And then Delaware is like,
• 2:37
  well,
• 2:37
  you know,
• 2:37
  I mean,
• 2:38
  you gotta
• 2:38
  forgive us.
• 2:39
  We have Joe Biden,
• 2:40
  we're gonna go late September 15th.
• 2:41
  That's the last primary that we will see.
• 2:44
  Technically,
• 2:44
  they're,
• 2:44
  you know,
• 2:45
  like something like Louisiana
• 2:47
  sort of has a primary on election day,
• 2:49
  and then they have a runoff after it,
• 2:50
  which makes perfect sense.
• 2:51
  Obviously,
• 2:51
  we should definitely,
• 2:53
  um,
• 2:54
  not know who all of our winners and losers are right after the election.
• 2:57
  Let's wait for a few weeks afterward and do it in December right before Christmas.
• 3:00
  I don't really understand that system,
• 3:01
  frankly,
• 3:02
  but hey,
• 3:03
  one of the things that's great about this country
• 3:05
  is,
• 3:05
  uh,
• 3:06
  federalism.
• 3:07
  One of the things that's great about our election system
• 3:09
  is the fact that states get to do it the way that they want,
• 3:12
  and you might say,
• 3:12
  well,
• 3:12
  I don't really like that.
• 3:13
  I don't really like it either as a guy who
• 3:15
  does prediction markets and has to cover these things,
• 3:17
  but what I will say is,
• 3:19
  it is certainly a resistant factor against the government,
• 3:22
  uh,
• 3:23
  you know,
• 3:23
  getting in the way of the federally,
• 3:25
  not to mention foreign governments.
• 3:27
  Really hard to hack
• 3:28
  an election the way that we have it set up.
• 3:30
  Kind of hacks itself in some ways,
• 3:31
  but it's a whole another story.
• 3:32
  OK,
• 3:33
  8 takeaways and surprises from Florida,
• 3:34
  Wyoming,
• 3:35
  and Alaska
• 3:36
  primaries.
• 3:37
  There was a lot.
• 3:38
  Uh,
• 3:38
  you know,
• 3:39
  Corey Mills went down in one of the races.
• 3:41
  Um,
• 3:42
  you have,
• 3:43
  let's see,
• 3:44
  uh,
• 3:44
  Florida House,
• 3:45
  there's a bunch of stuff that went on there.
• 3:47
  We'll get into some of it.
• 3:48
  Um,
• 3:49
  I want to go through all the results here in a,
• 3:51
  in a second,
• 3:52
  but there was a decent amount of,
• 3:54
  uh,
• 3:55
  of,
• 3:55
  uh,
• 3:56
  back and forth
• 3:57
  on,
• 3:57
  uh,
• 3:57
  on all of these elections,
• 3:58
  but I don't think anything rose to the level,
• 4:01
  and I think it's being underplayed
• 4:03
  of what happened in Florida
• 4:04
  in the Democratic Senate primary.
• 4:06
  I think that was the biggest race of the night,
• 4:07
  the most important race
• 4:09
  of the night,
• 4:09
  and it says something just absolutely fascinating
• 4:12
  about our country.
• 4:13
  Florida rejects Democratic establishment
• 4:16
  and even snubs Trump.
• 4:17
  Now,
• 4:17
  we'll get into the Trump part here in a little bit.
• 4:20
  Because
• 4:21
  he had a couple of endorsements.
• 4:22
  Uh,
• 4:22
  the,
• 4:22
  the endorsement,
• 4:23
  the Trump endorsement thing has been an interesting journey this primary season.
• 4:26
  We made a lot of money early in this election and this primary season.
• 4:31
  On basically going after anything Trump said in the Republican primary,
• 4:34
  like we just kind of just checked the box every single time and said,
• 4:37
  sure,
• 4:37
  yes,
• 4:38
  yes,
• 4:38
  yes,
• 4:38
  yes,
• 4:38
  yes,
• 4:39
  and over and over again
• 4:40
  at the beginning,
• 4:41
  those picks were outperforming
• 4:44
  what a lot of people thought.
• 4:45
  We made over 1,000%
• 4:47
  on the Ken Paxton election,
• 4:48
  for example.
• 4:48
  I mean,
• 4:49
  it feels like ages ago,
• 4:50
  right?
• 4:51
  Um,
• 4:51
  we went against Thomas Massey.
• 4:53
  Um,
• 4:54
  in,
• 4:54
  you know,
• 4:55
  predicting his outcome,
• 4:56
  like,
• 4:56
  I like Thomas,
• 4:57
  but like,
• 4:57
  you know,
• 4:57
  we,
• 4:58
  we went against him as far as the result,
• 4:59
  uh,
• 5:00
  went,
• 5:00
  uh,
• 5:01
  was gonna come out because of a lot,
• 5:02
  largely because of Trump's endorsement and his passion in that election.
• 5:07
  That has really started to fade.
• 5:08
  Uh,
• 5:09
  it's not really as powerful.
• 5:10
  I don't know what that says about November.
• 5:12
  I'm,
• 5:12
  I'm curious to see if you have a theory,
• 5:14
  I would love to see it,
• 5:15
  uh,
• 5:15
  drop it in the chat or bring it,
• 5:16
  bring it over to predictableShow.com or social media.
• 5:18
  I would love to see what your theories are on that because
• 5:21
  it does feel like it's,
• 5:22
  the,
• 5:22
  the hold of the Trump,
• 5:24
  um,
• 5:25
  endorsement is weakening.
• 5:27
  We'll give you some examples of that here in a second,
• 5:29
  but that's not the main story.
• 5:30
  The main story is
• 5:31
  a race between Alexander Vinman
• 5:34
  and,
• 5:34
  uh,
• 5:36
  I wanna say Richard
• 5:38
  I wanna say Pat
• 5:40
  I want to say Cynthia.
• 5:41
  Is it Angela?
• 5:43
  Angela Nixon?
• 5:44
  Angie Nixon.
• 5:46
  Angie Nixon.
• 5:46
  It was my,
• 5:47
  I mean,
• 5:48
  it was,
• 5:48
  it was down the line a little bit on my Nixon parade.
• 5:50
  I didn't go to Otis.
• 5:51
  That was good.
• 5:52
  Um,
• 5:53
  so all of these Nixon's,
• 5:54
  uh,
• 5:54
  are in my head.
• 5:55
  The Vinman Nixon,
• 5:57
  Nixon quagmire,
• 5:58
  the battle that went on last night
• 6:00
  was fascinating.
• 6:02
  Largely because it wasn't really supposed to be a battle.
• 6:06
  I think people are losing sight of how unbelievable
• 6:11
  this is.
• 6:12
  What we just saw last night is one of the strangest
• 6:15
  things you're ever gonna see in a race like this,
• 6:16
  and we've seen some upsets.
• 6:18
  We've seen socialists overperforming.
• 6:20
  We've seen a couple of them underperforming
• 6:22
  in the Midwest,
• 6:23
  Michigan,
• 6:24
  and Wisconsin.
• 6:25
  We saw some underperformance from socialists,
• 6:27
  lots of overperformance.
• 6:28
  We've seen,
• 6:29
  uh,
• 6:29
  a decent amount of that happening.
• 6:30
  But what you've seen
• 6:32
  typically
• 6:33
  is it's been in,
• 6:34
  you know,
• 6:35
  bluer areas.
• 6:36
  Uh,
• 6:36
  in controlled circumstances where like,
• 6:39
  uh,
• 6:39
  Chevalier in,
• 6:41
  uh,
• 6:41
  in,
• 6:41
  uh,
• 6:42
  New York City,
• 6:43
  right?
• 6:43
  Mom Donnie endorses
• 6:44
  a bunch of House members
• 6:46
  in New York,
• 6:47
  uh,
• 6:47
  they all win,
• 6:49
  House challengers in,
• 6:50
  in many of the cases,
• 6:51
  uh,
• 6:52
  they.
• 6:52
  All win,
• 6:52
  uh,
• 6:52
  and sometimes take out Democratic incumbents,
• 6:55
  uh,
• 6:55
  because he wants Democratic Socialists to be there and it wins
• 6:58
  and like you kind of brush it off a little bit,
• 7:00
  you know,
• 7:00
  Nia Rahman somehow gets through in the,
• 7:02
  in the LA mayoral race to the runoff.
• 7:05
  OK,
• 7:06
  you know,
• 7:06
  it's,
• 7:07
  it's
• 7:07
  LA.
• 7:09
  There's been a bunch of these situations that have happened,
• 7:11
  and the rate,
• 7:12
  the rating,
• 7:12
  uh,
• 7:13
  uh,
• 7:13
  you know,
• 7:13
  of socialists getting through
• 7:15
  has been
• 7:16
  positive,
• 7:16
  but a little mixed.
• 7:20
  When it comes to statewide races though,
• 7:21
  it's been harder,
• 7:22
  harder sledding,
• 7:22
  right?
• 7:23
  El Sayed barely won in Michigan,
• 7:25
  even though he was leading the polls significantly.
• 7:27
  Franciscahong lost famously in Wisconsin,
• 7:30
  even with a 20 point poll lead.
• 7:32
  They've underperformed in some of those areas.
• 7:34
  Statewide is.
• 7:35
  Usually the type of place
• 7:36
  where a bunch of people,
• 7:37
  cause you have people in the cities,
• 7:38
  you have people in the crazy university areas,
• 7:41
  and those people come out for the socialists,
• 7:43
  right?
• 7:43
  They always do.
• 7:44
  And so when you have these tiny areas,
• 7:46
  small house districts,
• 7:47
  etc.
• 7:48
  you have a situation where
• 7:50
  that stuff can play out pretty easily.
• 7:52
  Statewide,
• 7:52
  it's really hard and statewide in a
• 7:54
  purplish to red state,
• 7:56
  even harder.
• 7:57
  But that's not all
• 7:58
  about this race.
• 7:59
  That's not the only thing you need to know.
• 8:01
  Alexander Vinman,
• 8:02
  if you don't know who he is,
• 8:03
  he is a guy who
• 8:05
  became
• 8:06
  sort of famous because he was a whistleblower
• 8:09
  in Trump's first impeachment hearing
• 8:11
  back in the old,
• 8:12
  uh,
• 8:13
  the perfect phone call Ukraine days.
• 8:15
  He was one of the guys telling on Donald Trump and saying he did,
• 8:18
  he did very bad things.
• 8:20
  Uh,
• 8:20
  he was testifying.
• 8:22
  He became this sort of pseudo celebrity on the left.
• 8:24
  He was on,
• 8:25
  you know,
• 8:25
  MSNBC talking about him all the time,
• 8:27
  having him on.
• 8:28
  He became sort of a big figure.
• 8:29
  His brother,
• 8:30
  who was also sort of involved in this,
• 8:32
  wound up running for and I believe succeeding,
• 8:34
  right?
• 8:34
  He,
• 8:34
  he's in Congress,
• 8:35
  I think.
• 8:36
  Um,
• 8:36
  Vinman,
• 8:37
  he wound up getting into Congress,
• 8:38
  uh,
• 8:39
  previously.
• 8:40
  And so the other part of this was the other brother,
• 8:42
  the more famous brother,
• 8:43
  honestly,
• 8:43
  this is one of the,
• 8:44
  this is the brother that actually had a run of several episodes,
• 8:47
  uh,
• 8:47
  an arc on Curb Your Enthusiasm.
• 8:49
  He's kind of became a celebrity.
• 8:51
  So they said,
• 8:52
  you know what would be perfect,
• 8:53
  we've got to go up against,
• 8:54
  uh,
• 8:54
  you know,
• 8:55
  uh,
• 8:55
  a candidate down in,
• 8:56
  uh,
• 8:57
  Florida.
• 8:58
  We need a really good candidate.
• 9:00
  We need someone who kind of comes off,
• 9:01
  you know,
• 9:01
  one of the things Democrats like to do
• 9:03
  is when they wanna go after a,
• 9:05
  uh,
• 9:05
  an entire state that isn't exactly
• 9:07
  a blue state.
• 9:09
  Maybe you're not gonna want a,
• 9:10
  a,
• 9:10
  a socialist.
• 9:11
  You're gonna get a person who's a little bit more moderate.
• 9:14
  Uh,
• 9:14
  a person who has a military background,
• 9:16
  a person seen as like,
• 9:17
  you know,
• 9:17
  this whistleblower,
• 9:18
  upstanding whistleblower,
• 9:19
  at least in left-wing circles,
• 9:21
  they basically move Vindman down to Florida and say,
• 9:24
  hey,
• 9:25
  run,
• 9:25
  because we'll,
• 9:26
  if you run,
• 9:27
  we will flood you with cash.
• 9:30
  Everything I've talked about so far has happened.
• 9:33
  They moved him down to Florida.
• 9:34
  He decided to run.
• 9:35
  He was leading in polls.
• 9:37
  They flooded him with cash to the extent
• 9:39
  of,
• 9:40
  he wound up fundraising
• 9:42
  $16.3 million
• 9:45
  so far.
• 9:45
  Remember,
• 9:46
  he's not even a candidate yet.
• 9:47
  This is a primary,
• 9:48
  $16.3 million.
• 9:53
  Cynthia,
• 9:54
  Pat,
• 9:55
  Otis,
• 9:55
  Richard.
• 9:57
  Angie Nixon.
• 10:00
  Didn't even raise $1 million.
• 10:03
  She was,
• 10:04
  I mean,
• 10:04
  look,
• 10:05
  I don't wanna be too dismissive,
• 10:06
  um,
• 10:07
  because,
• 10:07
  you know,
• 10:07
  as you know,
• 10:08
  I'm always very fair to socialists,
• 10:09
  but,
• 10:10
  She was basically a complete nobody,
• 10:13
  OK?
• 10:14
  She was not a big figure in the state.
• 10:15
  She did have some roots
• 10:17
  in sort of,
• 10:18
  uh,
• 10:19
  you know,
• 10:19
  that,
• 10:20
  uh,
• 10:20
  Barack Obama,
• 10:21
  I'm a,
• 10:22
  I'm a community builder,
• 10:23
  a community organizer,
• 10:24
  those types of circles,
• 10:25
  right?
• 10:26
  He,
• 10:26
  she was,
• 10:27
  she was known as a socialist organizer,
• 10:29
  a very far
• 10:30
  left-wing organizer
• 10:32
  that would,
• 10:32
  you know,
• 10:32
  occasionally get involved in local stories.
• 10:34
  I mean,
• 10:35
  she wasn't
• 10:35
  a complete unknown in hardcore left-wing circles,
• 10:38
  but she was an unknown throughout the state.
• 10:40
  This is a person with no profile,
• 10:42
  no history
• 10:43
  of successfully running for office at this scale,
• 10:46
  no history of being able to fundraise for a,
• 10:48
  for a race like this.
• 10:50
  It's the type of thing
• 10:52
  that
• 10:53
  makes it almost impossible.
• 10:54
  In fact,
• 10:54
  she only raised $975,000.
• 10:57
  There were reports that she only spent about $60,000.
• 11:01
  Going up against a guy who had 16 million and I think spent 4.
• 11:05
  So,
• 11:06
  and you could see when you have 60 million,
• 11:08
  you only spend 4
• 11:09
  and you lose the race,
• 11:11
  Alexander Vinman,
• 11:12
  when you only spend a quarter of the money that you have,
• 11:14
  and it's somewhere around there,
• 11:15
  I don't remember the exact number,
• 11:16
  but it's something like a quarter of the money.
• 11:17
  He was expecting to have this money to go up against Ashley Moody
• 11:21
  in the general election.
• 11:22
  Ashley Moody did win.
• 11:24
  So,
• 11:24
  all this happens,
• 11:26
  and,
• 11:27
  uh,
• 11:27
  Vinman winds up losing,
• 11:29
  I think it was 55,
• 11:30
  uh,
• 11:30
  45 or something,
• 11:32
  maybe 56-44 at the end,
• 11:34
  uh,
• 11:35
  wound up winning,
• 11:36
  uh,
• 11:37
  this particular election.
• 11:38
  Uh,
• 11:39
  Vinman loses,
• 11:40
  Nixon wins,
• 11:40
  this unknown with no money and no profile somehow pulls the state out.
• 11:44
  Now,
• 11:45
  I will say,
• 11:46
  a lot of times Democrats get what they want in these elections.
• 11:48
  This is not what Democrats wanted,
• 11:50
  not as a party.
• 11:51
  The party wanted,
• 11:52
  uh,
• 11:52
  Alexander Vinman to win this race.
• 11:55
  They're not excited about Nixon because they know
• 11:57
  their tiny chance of beating Ashley Moody,
• 12:00
  and I do think it was tiny even before this,
• 12:02
  it got,
• 12:02
  just got a lot smaller,
• 12:03
  right?
• 12:04
  Going up against a,
• 12:05
  an unknown socialist with no ability to,
• 12:07
  to fundraise
• 12:08
  is not exactly.
• 12:09
  The profile of someone you want to go up against Ashley Moody,
• 12:11
  who is,
• 12:12
  you might not know her,
• 12:13
  she's not a particularly well-known senator.
• 12:15
  She was appointed by Ron DeSantiss when Marco Rubio went to be Secretary of State,
• 12:19
  uh,
• 12:19
  but she is known to be very competent,
• 12:21
  uh,
• 12:22
  pretty solid.
• 12:23
  Uh,
• 12:23
  she is,
• 12:24
  uh,
• 12:24
  kind of one of those senators that keeps to herself and does
• 12:27
  her job and doesn't try to get on TV all the time
• 12:29
  and,
• 12:30
  uh,
• 12:30
  is seen as a pretty,
• 12:32
  pretty steady character.
• 12:34
  So she's gonna be tough to beat anyway,
• 12:36
  probably almost impossible to beat here unless there's
• 12:38
  catastrophic things that happened for the Republican Party overall
• 12:41
  in a state like Florida,
• 12:42
  you know,
• 12:43
  they did pretty well anyway.
• 12:44
  So it'll be closer than when DeSanttos was running.
• 12:46
  But
• 12:46
  this all leads to me to something that I think is a,
• 12:49
  a major thing that we need to
• 12:51
  understand.
• 12:52
  If you are
• 12:53
  following the show because you love,
• 12:55
  uh,
• 12:55
  just watching prediction markets,
• 12:58
  we're gonna talk a ton about prediction markets today,
• 12:59
  but I wanna take a quick sidebar here just to note
• 13:02
  what we're seeing
• 13:03
  here.
• 13:05
  We use prediction markets to understand
• 13:07
  what's going to happen.
• 13:09
  Uh,
• 13:09
  in,
• 13:10
  in the elections,
• 13:11
  and they have been overwhelmingly right,
• 13:13
  not perfect every time.
• 13:14
  Francescahong comes to mind
• 13:15
  where they,
• 13:16
  where they were wrong along with the polls.
• 13:18
  This Vinman case is another example.
• 13:19
  In fact Vinman was a heavy favorite.
• 13:21
  I did not have a position
• 13:23
  in this race either way,
• 13:24
  um,
• 13:25
  because of this type of stuff.
• 13:26
  Like I was worried about the Socialists winning.
• 13:28
  Perhaps I should have put a small position.
• 13:30
  On Nixon to win,
• 13:32
  just,
• 13:32
  uh,
• 13:33
  maybe,
• 13:33
  you know,
• 13:34
  uh,
• 13:34
  get kind of a long shot,
• 13:35
  uh,
• 13:36
  win,
• 13:36
  probably would have been a good thing to do,
• 13:37
  certainly the way it played out,
• 13:38
  but I think it would have been a good process to notice that
• 13:40
  in advance.
• 13:41
  Um,
• 13:42
  that being said,
• 13:44
  When we're talking about where the country is headed.
• 13:47
  It's important to stop and think about how far we have come
• 13:51
  and how fast we are here.
• 13:55
  When we started the show at Fox News Channel
• 13:57
  back in 2009,
• 13:59
  I guess that was,
• 14:01
  this was one of the first,
• 14:02
  uh,
• 14:03
  and,
• 14:03
  and kind of the biggest news story of that early that year.
• 14:07
  Barack Obama,
• 14:07
  of course,
• 14:07
  wins the 2008 election.
• 14:08
  He's coming in in 2009,
• 14:10
  and this,
• 14:11
  uh,
• 14:12
  is the cover of Newsweek magazine.
• 14:13
  You may remember it.
• 14:14
  Um,
• 14:15
  we are all socialists now.
• 14:18
  The perils and promise of a new era of big
• 14:22
  government.
• 14:23
  Famously,
• 14:24
  Bill Clinton,
• 14:25
  and he didn't really mean this,
• 14:26
  but Bill Clinton knew to speak to the people,
• 14:28
  and he was very good at that,
• 14:30
  to say the era of big government is over.
• 14:33
  Ronald Reagan,
• 14:34
  of course,
• 14:34
  successfully ran against the idea of big government,
• 14:37
  kind of killed it off,
• 14:38
  and then
• 14:38
  Clinton was forced to say the era of big government is over.
• 14:41
  Now he found plenty of ways to make government bigger,
• 14:43
  as we all know.
• 14:44
  But
• 14:45
  as we went through that period,
• 14:46
  you had the Barack Obama situation where,
• 14:48
  you know,
• 14:49
  he's coming in in the middle of the financial crisis.
• 14:51
  There's bailouts all over the place,
• 14:52
  all these companies are getting bailed out,
• 14:54
  people are getting,
• 14:55
  uh,
• 14:55
  you know,
• 14:55
  are going bankrupt.
• 14:56
  It's a terrible time for the economy.
• 14:58
  And one of the solutions to that,
• 15:00
  that
• 15:00
  first,
• 15:01
  we should,
• 15:01
  to be fair,
• 15:01
  George W.
• 15:02
  Bush kind of started,
• 15:03
  uh,
• 15:03
  and then Barack Obama picked up and accelerated
• 15:05
  was the government coming in as your rescue,
• 15:08
  as your,
• 15:08
  uh,
• 15:09
  your warm hug in a moment like that.
• 15:11
  And that cover came out,
• 15:12
  we're all socialists now and people were,
• 15:14
  were shocked by it.
• 15:14
  What do you mean we're all socialists now?
• 15:16
  And there was an interesting conversation that I think sprouted out of that cover,
• 15:20
  which was,
• 15:20
  you know,
• 15:21
  you need to realize that if you have the government coming in and,
• 15:23
  uh,
• 15:24
  protecting,
• 15:24
  uh,
• 15:25
  companies that have uh bad fortune and go underneath,
• 15:28
  uh,
• 15:28
  you know,
• 15:28
  go underwater,
• 15:29
  and you don't,
• 15:30
  you don't do that for people and
• 15:31
  you,
• 15:32
  uh,
• 15:32
  you,
• 15:32
  you,
• 15:32
  you let them have all the success,
• 15:34
  uh,
• 15:35
  all the,
• 15:35
  the,
• 15:35
  the,
• 15:36
  the,
• 15:36
  the spoils of success and don't,
• 15:38
  and wind up protecting them.
• 15:40
  Against failure,
• 15:41
  you're,
• 15:41
  you're sort of
• 15:42
  creating this really bad incentive process,
• 15:44
  right?
• 15:45
  Where people take lots and lots more risks and,
• 15:47
  and things go down the drain potentially.
• 15:50
  All that being said
• 15:52
  It was sort of shocking to people and,
• 15:53
  and I would say the first thing that people said was kind of denial,
• 15:56
  right?
• 15:56
  We're all socialists now.
• 15:57
  No,
• 15:57
  we're not.
• 15:58
  Even Democrats said,
• 15:59
  wait a minute,
• 15:59
  we're not socialists.
• 16:00
  What are you talking about?
• 16:01
  In fact,
• 16:01
  it escalated to the point where when,
• 16:03
  you know,
• 16:03
  when conservative shows would say,
• 16:05
  hey,
• 16:06
  socialism is rising,
• 16:07
  this is happening,
• 16:08
  look at these policies.
• 16:09
  These sound a lot like policies of socialist governments.
• 16:12
  This,
• 16:12
  this,
• 16:12
  something is changing here and growing quickly.
• 16:15
  We were called racists and we were called haters and we were called,
• 16:18
  you know,
• 16:19
  phob-phobes and,
• 16:20
  you know,
• 16:21
  every name,
• 16:21
  racist,
• 16:22
  race phobes,
• 16:23
  Islamo,
• 16:24
  whatever name they could come up with to call us,
• 16:26
  they did.
• 16:27
  Because it was just,
• 16:29
  it was just us hiding our racism by
• 16:31
  critiquing these policies.
• 16:34
  Uh,
• 16:35
  look,
• 16:37
  We have to know that the prominent,
• 16:39
  and we have to notice these things when they change,
• 16:41
  the prominent
• 16:43
  Energetic
• 16:45
  The base of the party,
• 16:47
  of one of the two major parties of the United States of America,
• 16:51
  has turned socialist.
• 16:53
  That is a,
• 16:53
  that is not something you just brush by.
• 16:56
  This is a massive change in the United States of America.
• 16:59
  Yes,
• 16:59
  there have been left-wing policies,
• 17:01
  yes,
• 17:01
  there have been left-wing movements,
• 17:02
  yes,
• 17:02
  there have been left-wing,
• 17:04
  um,
• 17:05
  nonsense that I don't like,
• 17:06
  that looks too close to socialism for my taste.
• 17:09
  But we are now at a place where
• 17:11
  they're screaming this from,
• 17:13
  from the mountaintops and winning elections in their primaries in red states.
• 17:19
  Over and over and over again across the country,
• 17:21
  this is happening,
• 17:22
  and socialism is now the predominant part
• 17:26
  of one of the two major parties
• 17:28
  in our system.
• 17:30
  This is the United States of America.
• 17:31
  This is a country that's built on capitalism.
• 17:33
  This is a country that is built on
• 17:35
  a constitution
• 17:36
  that is focusing on limited government
• 17:39
  and individual rights.
• 17:42
  And that's where we are now.
• 17:44
  We should notice it.
• 17:45
  You might love it.
• 17:47
  You know,
• 17:47
  you might say,
• 17:47
  look,
• 17:47
  I love prediction markets and I don't care about your politics,
• 17:50
  too.
• 17:50
  I got it.
• 17:50
  It's OK.
• 17:52
  Uh,
• 17:52
  we're,
• 17:52
  that's not what we do here.
• 17:53
  We're not,
• 17:53
  this is not a,
• 17:54
  I don't sit here and,
• 17:55
  you know,
• 17:55
  whine every single day about my policy choices.
• 17:58
  I just try to figure out what's gonna happen,
• 17:59
  uh,
• 18:00
  and,
• 18:00
  uh,
• 18:00
  and go into prediction markets and talk about it.
• 18:02
  But I think it is an important thing to note here.
• 18:05
  This is,
• 18:05
  this is a,
• 18:06
  this was a,
• 18:07
  a massive,
• 18:08
  massive deal.
• 18:10
  And it's important to understand
• 18:12
  that it's going on.
• 18:13
  We should notice these things,
• 18:15
  we should notice these things.
• 18:18
  We'll see what happens in November when it comes to those issues because if,
• 18:21
  you know,
• 18:21
  if there's a shaky year for Republicans,
• 18:23
  some of these candidates might get through and that's gonna be a massive,
• 18:26
  massive story
• 18:27
  going forward.
• 18:28
  Now,
• 18:28
  I wanna hit one thing that happened
• 18:30
  during this race.
• 18:32
  Uh,
• 18:32
  when it comes to prediction markets.
• 18:35
  Um,
• 18:36
  pretty interesting.
• 18:38
  In,
• 18:39
  in the race,
• 18:39
  Vinman,
• 18:40
  who's the favorite about 92%,
• 18:42
  drops all the way down to,
• 18:43
  I don't know,
• 18:44
  15%,
• 18:44
  something like that.
• 18:46
  And when he's around 15,
• 18:47
  I'm looking at that,
• 18:48
  and I'm looking at
• 18:49
  how much vote is left,
• 18:50
  how close the race is.
• 18:52
  Um,
• 18:53
  there was still a lot of day of vote that
• 18:55
  may have been a little bit different than the early,
• 18:57
  uh,
• 18:58
  voting,
• 18:58
  uh,
• 18:58
  absentee voting that had already been released.
• 19:01
  And I was about 15%,
• 19:02
  and I thought,
• 19:02
  you know what,
• 19:03
  maybe it's worth a little bit of a flyer.
• 19:05
  Took a small position
• 19:06
  on Vinman to win.
• 19:08
  And I thought there was a pretty good process and a pretty good reasoning to think
• 19:12
  that he might make a run.
• 19:13
  He might not get all the way to 100,
• 19:14
  he might not win the actual election,
• 19:16
  but I thought he might go from 15 up to,
• 19:17
  let's say 50 or 60 or 40 or whatever it was,
• 19:20
  and I'd have an opportunity to take the profits.
• 19:23
  And
• 19:24
  I,
• 19:24
  I made that investment,
• 19:25
  and as I'm watching that go on,
• 19:28
  Uh,
• 19:28
  I'm watching it tick down a little bit more.
• 19:30
  I'm following the vote very closely,
• 19:31
  and I start noticing.
• 19:34
  You know,
• 19:35
  the Panhandle is still to come at this point.
• 19:37
  They had not called the race.
• 19:38
  The Panhandle hadn't even closed their polls yet,
• 19:39
  but I
• 19:41
  couldn't come up with a scenario in my head in which Vinman,
• 19:44
  at this point,
• 19:44
  about 15 minutes after he made this election,
• 19:46
  could turn it around.
• 19:47
  And you're at a decision point there.
• 19:49
  What do you do?
• 19:51
  What do you do in that situation?
• 19:52
  If what you believe in the position that you have on a particular election
• 19:57
  is no longer right,
• 19:58
  in fact,
• 19:59
  you think it's wrong.
• 20:01
  What do you do in that situation?
• 20:03
  Well,
• 20:04
  We've decided
• 20:06
  To
• 20:07
  codify this lesson.
• 20:10
  As the 18th Amendment
• 20:12
  to our Constitution.
• 20:22
  Yes,
• 20:23
  I looked at that position and I said,
• 20:26
  well,
• 20:26
  I had one side of this,
• 20:27
  I had the Vinman side.
• 20:29
  And then
• 20:30
  things turned a little nasty.
• 20:32
  It went down,
• 20:33
  lower,
• 20:33
  lower,
• 20:33
  lower.
• 20:34
  In fact,
• 20:34
  it got to like
• 20:35
  5% or 4%.
• 20:37
  I'd lost 10 points off of this.
• 20:39
  Now,
• 20:39
  I could just sit,
• 20:40
  sit there
• 20:41
  and just watch that go away.
• 20:42
  It was a small position,
• 20:43
  wouldn't have been a big deal.
• 20:44
  However,
• 20:46
  What I did instead
• 20:47
  is I reassessed,
• 20:48
  I looked at that information.
• 20:50
  And I reassessed and instead
• 20:52
  went the other way.
• 20:53
  I sold my shares of Vinman as a loss,
• 20:56
  and then I went in on Vinman,
• 20:58
  no,
• 20:58
  and Nixon,
• 20:59
  yes,
• 21:00
  because I was
• 21:01
  relatively,
• 21:02
  I mean,
• 21:02
  almost 100%.
• 21:03
  In my mind,
• 21:03
  it was 100%,
• 21:04
  but,
• 21:05
  uh,
• 21:05
  the prediction market was about 95%.
• 21:07
  And I went in and I loaded up and I put a decent amount of money.
• 21:11
  I think I went all the way up to like a large position,
• 21:13
  the opposite way.
• 21:15
  And wound up hitting on Nixon and hitting on uh Vinman,
• 21:20
  uh,
• 21:20
  no,
• 21:21
  to wind up not only
• 21:23
  wiping off the losses from my first trade.
• 21:26
  But also,
• 21:27
  giving myself
• 21:28
  a small profit on the market
• 21:30
  overall.
• 21:31
  And that's what our 18th Amendment is all about.
• 21:34
  18th Amendment of the predictable Constitution
• 21:37
  shall forevermore,
• 21:39
  until it's repealed,
• 21:40
  uh,
• 21:40
  be known as
• 21:42
  don't fall in love
• 21:44
  with your own
• 21:46
  trades.
• 21:47
  There's almost like a thing you have,
• 21:49
  like,
• 21:50
  who's your favorite child,
• 21:51
  I can't pick.
• 21:53
  It's almost like that with your trades sometimes.
• 21:56
  You go through this process,
• 21:57
  you come up with a decision,
• 21:58
  you feel
• 22:00
  like you've nailed it.
• 22:01
  You've
• 22:02
  analyzed this election perfectly,
• 22:04
  and then things start going the wrong way,
• 22:05
  and then the facts start saying,
• 22:06
  hey,
• 22:07
  you,
• 22:08
  your position's wrong.
• 22:09
  And my
• 22:10
  tendency,
• 22:11
  I think
• 22:11
  a lot of people's tendency.
• 22:13
  is to sit there and say,
• 22:14
  no,
• 22:14
  I think it's gonna turn around.
• 22:16
  No,
• 22:16
  I think,
• 22:16
  wait,
• 22:16
  hold on,
• 22:17
  wait a minute.
• 22:18
  And,
• 22:18
  and you start almost fooling yourself because you're almost
• 22:21
  loyal
• 22:22
  to that thought process that you had before.
• 22:24
  And look,
• 22:25
  this is a good lesson to learn,
• 22:26
  not just for prediction markets,
• 22:27
  but everywhere.
• 22:29
  It's important
• 22:31
  to be able to look at new information
• 22:34
  and decide,
• 22:35
  wait a minute,
• 22:35
  I think I was wrong before,
• 22:37
  or that whatever the information now,
• 22:39
  uh,
• 22:40
  that I'm seeing has changed,
• 22:42
  and it's time to just abandon that position.
• 22:44
  Forget your children,
• 22:45
  leave them on the side of the road,
• 22:46
  go find a new kid.
• 22:48
  Adopt a better-looking kid,
• 22:50
  one that will look better in the,
• 22:51
  in the pictures on Christmas.
• 22:53
  That might be what you need to do sometimes.
• 22:55
  And that's what I did in that particular election,
• 22:57
  turning it around,
• 22:57
  going the opposite way.
• 22:59
  And saying,
• 23:00
  OK,
• 23:00
  I'm gonna go the opposite way because now I feel really confident about this,
• 23:04
  uh,
• 23:04
  and you wound up,
• 23:05
  uh,
• 23:05
  getting rid of those losses in an election
• 23:07
  that you could have lost.
• 23:08
  You could have just sat there and eat,
• 23:09
  and eaten a,
• 23:10
  a,
• 23:10
  a loss on election night.
• 23:11
  Instead,
• 23:12
  you turn that around,
• 23:13
  go the opposite way,
• 23:14
  and wind up,
• 23:15
  uh,
• 23:15
  profiting.
• 23:15
  When you,
• 23:16
  when,
• 23:16
  when
• 23:17
  information changes,
• 23:19
  It's important to change
• 23:21
  your
• 23:22
  opinion.
• 23:23
  And that is really important in prediction markets if
• 23:25
  you want to actually make money in them.
• 23:28
  You need to be able to bail on a position.
• 23:29
  The 17th Amendment,
• 23:30
  we talked about,
• 23:31
  uh,
• 23:31
  earlier,
• 23:31
  a smaller loss is a win.
• 23:33
  I kind of used that 17th Amendment last night when I sold my Vinman shares for
• 23:37
  not much,
• 23:38
  but,
• 23:38
  uh,
• 23:39
  you know,
• 23:39
  a few cents on the dollar.
• 23:41
  I've invested like at 15 cents,
• 23:43
  it was down to like 5 cents or whatever.
• 23:44
  I could have just taken that to 0,
• 23:46
  but
• 23:47
  I didn't.
• 23:48
  I use the 17th Amendment,
• 23:49
  a smaller loss is a win,
• 23:50
  and then I use the 18th Amendment,
• 23:52
  the brand new one,
• 23:53
  which is don't,
• 23:54
  don't fall in love
• 23:56
  with your own trades.
• 23:57
  It's important to just treat them
• 23:59
  as tools.
• 24:00
  And even though you might have loved that process,
• 24:02
  you might have loved that win,
• 24:04
  try not to ride it all the way to the ground because you're being obstinate.
• 24:08
  Don't fall in love
• 24:09
  with your own trades,
• 24:10
  our own
• 24:10
  18th Amendment.
• 24:11
  Now,
• 24:12
  you might look at this and say,
• 24:12
  look,
• 24:13
  I haven't even started trading yet.
• 24:15
  Um,
• 24:15
  I wanna,
• 24:15
  I wanna,
• 24:16
  I want to highlight this,
• 24:16
  uh,
• 24:17
  comment,
• 24:17
  uh,
• 24:17
  from Dallas Creamer Media last night.
• 24:19
  I think it was on,
• 24:19
  I can't remember where it was on Substack,
• 24:21
  I think,
• 24:21
  uh,
• 24:21
  predictableShow.com.
• 24:23
  I need to start investing in these markets.
• 24:24
  I wish I did in these.
• 24:26
  And if you were on the ride with us last night,
• 24:28
  we had a really good night.
• 24:29
  We're going to go over all those positions here in just a second.
• 24:31
  But
• 24:32
  a lot of people have that feeling.
• 24:34
  Like,
• 24:34
  I,
• 24:34
  I wish I was involved in this,
• 24:35
  but it is an intimidating thing.
• 24:37
  I will say.
• 24:38
  When you're first getting into prediction markets,
• 24:40
  it's hard to know which button to click,
• 24:42
  where to open up the menu,
• 24:43
  find the right
• 24:44
  shares.
• 24:44
  I,
• 24:44
  some,
• 24:45
  I even sometimes
• 24:46
  click the wrong side of the trade for a second.
• 24:48
  You're like,
• 24:48
  wait a minute,
• 24:49
  no,
• 24:49
  I don't wanna do that.
• 24:49
  I don't,
• 24:50
  I don't wanna sell,
• 24:50
  I wanna buy.
• 24:51
  Whatever the thing is,
• 24:52
  it can be intimidating,
• 24:53
  right?
• 24:53
  And we're talking about everything from
• 24:55
  the very beginning structure of just getting money into your account,
• 24:57
  signing up for an account,
• 24:58
  picking a platform,
• 24:59
  and going through that entire process.
• 25:02
  And,
• 25:02
  uh,
• 25:03
  eventually,
• 25:04
  learning more advanced techniques that we sometimes talk about
• 25:06
  on the show and on uh predictableShow.com.
• 25:09
  So,
• 25:10
  one of the things we've been talking about for a while is a series of videos and,
• 25:13
  uh,
• 25:13
  we're calling it Predictable 101.
• 25:15
  And those are in process right now.
• 25:17
  We've got a few of them already done.
• 25:18
  They're gonna be coming out
• 25:19
  soon as we get a few of them kind of across
• 25:21
  the finish line.
• 25:23
  That being said,
• 25:23
  we're 70-something days.
• 25:25
  What was it?
• 25:25
  70.
• 25:27
  Something,
• 25:27
  what was it?
• 25:27
  26,
• 25:29
  76 days.
• 25:30
  I'm losing track of the days,
• 25:31
  76 days
• 25:33
  until this election.
• 25:34
  And you might be like,
• 25:35
  I don't
• 25:36
  really wanna wait for these videos to come out.
• 25:38
  I need to get going right now.
• 25:39
  I wanna get started.
• 25:40
  And if that's true,
• 25:41
  I think it's a good idea.
• 25:42
  Uh,
• 25:43
  frankly,
• 25:43
  because you have these 76 days to be able to get in,
• 25:46
  you'll have 4 more primary elections.
• 25:48
  We can go through and,
• 25:49
  and look for profit opportunities together.
• 25:51
  There's lots of other stuff you can play around with,
• 25:53
  so you can get up to speed enough
• 25:56
  that when election day comes,
• 25:57
  you're confident,
• 25:58
  you can move where you need to move,
• 26:00
  and you can profit in a very big way,
• 26:02
  which is
• 26:03
  what I expect to do
• 26:04
  on that particular
• 26:05
  Tuesday.
• 26:07
  Until these videos come out,
• 26:08
  I wanted to bridge the gap a little bit.
• 26:10
  And so,
• 26:10
  we've come up with this.
• 26:12
  This is,
• 26:12
  uh,
• 26:13
  something available to you right now.
• 26:15
  Uh,
• 26:15
  it's called Predictable 101.
• 26:16
  It's a digital guide,
• 26:17
  or you can,
• 26:18
  obviously,
• 26:18
  this one's a printed guide.
• 26:20
  Um,
• 26:20
  seven steps to a smarter position.
• 26:23
  And
• 26:24
  basically,
• 26:24
  it's I don't know,
• 26:25
  20 pages or so,
• 26:26
  flips you through all the different things,
• 26:28
  everything from
• 26:29
  Signing up,
• 26:30
  let me show you some of the signing up to a different accounts,
• 26:33
  um.
• 26:34
  Everything from how to place a position,
• 26:36
  you know,
• 26:36
  how to get money,
• 26:37
  I mean nice little pictures,
• 26:38
  it's all pretty.
• 26:40
  Uh,
• 26:41
  you know,
• 26:41
  what the,
• 26:42
  you know,
• 26:42
  what you're looking for in each,
• 26:44
  uh,
• 26:44
  each,
• 26:44
  uh,
• 26:45
  part of this,
• 26:47
  what you're looking for
• 26:48
  when you buy,
• 26:49
  when you sell,
• 26:50
  even in things like the,
• 26:51
  you know,
• 26:51
  you look at even things like the order book,
• 26:54
  um,
• 26:55
  from
• 26:55
  kind of the very basic starting point
• 26:57
  through some,
• 26:58
  uh,
• 26:58
  intermediate-level
• 27:00
  stuff that you might need to know.
• 27:03
  This is here and it's a resource available for you right now.
• 27:06
  All you have to do is go to predictableShow.com,
• 27:09
  put your email address in,
• 27:10
  we'll send it to you right away.
• 27:11
  It's a free resource just for joining us at predictableShow.com.
• 27:14
  You don't need to be the premium tier.
• 27:15
  We'd love you to have a,
• 27:16
  we'd love you to have you on the premium tier.
• 27:18
  Um,
• 27:18
  I think you,
• 27:18
  as you get more advanced as a trader,
• 27:20
  that's a great move.
• 27:21
  If you're just starting out,
• 27:22
  don't even start there.
• 27:23
  I mean,
• 27:24
  just go over to the free part,
• 27:25
  get,
• 27:26
  put that in,
• 27:26
  get this,
• 27:27
  go through it.
• 27:28
  It's like,
• 27:28
  you know,
• 27:28
  20 pages or so.
• 27:30
  A lot of it's pictures and,
• 27:31
  and diagrams,
• 27:31
  so you understand where to go on the sites,
• 27:33
  how to see this.
• 27:35
  Um,
• 27:35
  also just some basic tips.
• 27:36
  I,
• 27:36
  I,
• 27:36
  you know,
• 27:37
  I,
• 27:37
  I try not to make it overwhelming.
• 27:39
  There's more in here than you need to just quickly get started,
• 27:42
  but this will give you kind of like a,
• 27:44
  a,
• 27:44
  a varying guide
• 27:45
  for you to be able to look through this and just be able to learn and see what you want.
• 27:49
  If you are already a member,
• 27:50
  um,
• 27:51
  it's in our resources,
• 27:52
  uh,
• 27:52
  section
• 27:53
  of our website,
• 27:53
  but
• 27:54
  if you are not a member yet,
• 27:55
  just,
• 27:56
  uh,
• 27:56
  you know,
• 27:57
  it's free.
• 27:57
  Go there,
• 27:58
  put your email address in,
• 27:59
  we'll email it right back to you.
• 28:00
  I want you to do,
• 28:01
  do that,
• 28:01
  go sign up,
• 28:02
  do it while you're thinking about it because
• 28:04
  If you can kinda get started on this,
• 28:05
  this will help.
• 28:06
  We're gonna be doing more and more of this stuff anyway.
• 28:08
  The videos will be out as well.
• 28:10
  We'll give you another way,
• 28:11
  maybe any,
• 28:11
  uh,
• 28:12
  even easier to digest way.
• 28:13
  But
• 28:14
  if you wanna get started,
• 28:14
  you don't wanna wait for that stuff,
• 28:16
  I get it,
• 28:17
  uh,
• 28:17
  cause that's how I am.
• 28:18
  Frankly,
• 28:19
  when I get an idea,
• 28:20
  I wanna get in on these things.
• 28:21
  I wanna go.
• 28:22
  And there's a lot of stuff out there.
• 28:24
  Frankly,
• 28:24
  a lot of it is,
• 28:25
  uh,
• 28:25
  not great,
• 28:26
  that's out there just randomly on the internet.
• 28:28
  Wanted to come up with some,
• 28:29
  uh,
• 28:30
  sort of guide.
• 28:30
  To be able to walk you through these steps
• 28:32
  from the beginning to end.
• 28:34
  It's got some of my tips in there,
• 28:36
  uh,
• 28:36
  various things that I think will help you as a beginning trader.
• 28:39
  So if that's you,
• 28:40
  if you're interested in getting these markets,
• 28:41
  or you just honestly wanna understand them better
• 28:43
  for the future or maybe even to help understand
• 28:46
  what's going on when it comes to the elections,
• 28:48
  I think you'll really enjoy this research.
• 28:49
  It's predict a resource.
• 28:50
  It's a predictableshow.com.
• 28:53
  Put your email address in,
• 28:54
  we'll email it right back to you.
• 28:56
  Back in a second.
• 29:10
  So
• 29:12
  Welcome back to Predictablehow.com.
• 29:15
  We,
• 29:17
  we have a segment
• 29:18
  and uh that we do every single time after an election which is
• 29:21
  uh to go through every single position that I took during the election
• 29:25
  and how it turned out.
• 29:27
  And we do that because,
• 29:28
  uh,
• 29:28
  you know,
• 29:29
  number one,
• 29:29
  I want you to see what we're doing.
• 29:31
  Uh,
• 29:32
  I want you to,
• 29:33
  you know,
• 29:34
  I want to be accountable.
• 29:34
  It helps me sort of keep myself in line and not make dumb.
• 29:39
  Choices,
• 29:40
  right?
• 29:40
  Like stupid mistakes because
• 29:42
  I think about this as I'm trading.
• 29:43
  I'm like,
• 29:44
  I gotta do that show where I tell everybody about this and what is that gonna mean?
• 29:47
  And so,
• 29:48
  you know,
• 29:48
  we put up all of our picks,
• 29:50
  uh,
• 29:51
  on predictableShow.com.
• 29:53
  Um,
• 29:54
  there's a couple of different ways you can access that if you are a premium member,
• 29:57
  we list all of them.
• 29:58
  There's over 200 of them listed right now.
• 30:00
  Uh,
• 30:01
  if you go to Stu's Picks,
• 30:02
  it's at the top of the site,
• 30:03
  predictableShow.com.
• 30:05
  Go there and there's over 200 of them listed and it's not just election stuff,
• 30:08
  it is culture,
• 30:09
  it's sports,
• 30:10
  it's world events,
• 30:11
  it's uh finance,
• 30:11
  it's all sorts of different things.
• 30:13
  Um,
• 30:14
  and so that's all up there for you to access every,
• 30:16
  every week,
• 30:17
  we update it every week
• 30:19
  with all the new positions that I took during the week and then.
• 30:22
  When it comes to the election stuff,
• 30:24
  you know,
• 30:24
  because that's kind of late breaking,
• 30:25
  we don't always have time to update that database during the week.
• 30:27
  I'll put those in the premium chat.
• 30:29
  I need to be a premium subscriber to get those things early,
• 30:32
  other than the ones we talk about
• 30:33
  in live streams and in articles.
• 30:35
  I mean,
• 30:35
  we,
• 30:35
  we,
• 30:36
  we put a lot of them out there.
• 30:37
  But if you want that full access and you wanna get them early,
• 30:39
  if you're a trader,
• 30:40
  predictableShow.com premier,
• 30:42
  uh,
• 30:43
  premium,
• 30:44
  uh,
• 30:44
  membership is,
• 30:45
  is a great way
• 30:46
  to get that stuff and be able to make your money off of it.
• 30:49
  I,
• 30:49
  you know,
• 30:49
  I say this all the time because we get so many comments that say this.
• 30:53
  A lot of the members are in there,
• 30:55
  they're trading
• 30:56
  the positions that we talk about on,
• 30:57
  on the premium tier,
• 30:59
  and they're paying for that subscription like within the first week,
• 31:02
  a lot of times
• 31:03
  of what,
• 31:04
  uh,
• 31:05
  of what they're actually paying.
• 31:06
  They're,
• 31:06
  they're,
• 31:07
  they're earning that in prediction markets right away.
• 31:09
  So.
• 31:10
  Anyway,
• 31:11
  if you're,
• 31:11
  if you're trading this stuff,
• 31:12
  I think it's well worth your time.
• 31:13
  There's a bunch of other features I can tell you about,
• 31:15
  but,
• 31:15
  uh,
• 31:16
  when we do this,
• 31:17
  I try to go through all these positions and give them all to you.
• 31:20
  I went through my system here a little while ago,
• 31:24
  and I have a very long list for you,
• 31:25
  so let's get right to it.
• 31:27
  One of the things I realized yesterday as I was putting my
• 31:30
  positions in,
• 31:31
  in the premium
• 31:32
  chat.
• 31:34
  was holy crap,
• 31:35
  I've got a lot of money on the line on this election.
• 31:37
  And I,
• 31:37
  uh,
• 31:38
  because we have 5 different,
• 31:39
  uh,
• 31:39
  sizes of election or,
• 31:42
  or,
• 31:42
  or of,
• 31:42
  uh,
• 31:43
  prediction market positions that we take.
• 31:45
  And they go up by,
• 31:46
  you know,
• 31:46
  how,
• 31:47
  how,
• 31:47
  basically how much money you're putting in.
• 31:49
  And I keep them that way.
• 31:50
  I don't,
• 31:50
  you know,
• 31:50
  some people like to be like,
• 31:51
  oh gosh,
• 31:52
  I put 9 zillion dollars in this election,
• 31:53
  and I get that,
• 31:54
  it's cool.
• 31:54
  I like watching that content sometimes,
• 31:56
  but
• 31:57
  You know,
• 31:57
  I don't know how that helps the average person who might be using,
• 32:00
  you know,
• 32:00
  having a wallet that's 1/10 the size or 10 times the size,
• 32:03
  right?
• 32:03
  You need to know,
• 32:04
  you need to understand,
• 32:05
  uh,
• 32:05
  what size it is in your sort of prediction,
• 32:08
  so your,
• 32:08
  your,
• 32:08
  uh,
• 32:09
  sort of position so you can
• 32:10
  customize it to,
• 32:11
  to what you're doing.
• 32:12
  So we have 5 different sizes,
• 32:15
  marker position or very smallest,
• 32:16
  which is just basically,
• 32:18
  that,
• 32:18
  that one kind of sounds interesting.
• 32:20
  I'm not gonna do tons of research on it,
• 32:21
  just gonna mark it down so I can kinda come back to it.
• 32:24
  Small position,
• 32:25
  which is,
• 32:25
  I have a take,
• 32:26
  but maybe I haven't fully
• 32:28
  uh developed it yet.
• 32:29
  Medium,
• 32:30
  feel pretty strongly about that.
• 32:31
  Large,
• 32:32
  feel super strongly about that.
• 32:34
  I never wanna lose a large position ever.
• 32:36
  And then above that is the all-in position.
• 32:39
  Now,
• 32:40
  all-in is a little bit misleading if you think about all-in in a poker tournament,
• 32:42
  you're putting every single chip you have in.
• 32:44
  That's not,
• 32:44
  I'm not cleaning out my mortgage account,
• 32:46
  nor should you.
• 32:47
  Um,
• 32:47
  I'm not,
• 32:48
  uh,
• 32:48
  taking out every single thing,
• 32:49
  every dollar that I have for my investments and putting them in an all-in position.
• 32:53
  But what it means is
• 32:55
  kinda like
• 32:55
  all the available
• 32:57
  money you have
• 32:58
  in your prediction of market account.
• 33:00
  Doesn't mean taking it from other accounts.
• 33:02
  In your prediction market account,
• 33:03
  the money you've,
• 33:04
  you designated to,
• 33:05
  to utilize in this way,
• 33:07
  to invest and grow that part of your portfolio,
• 33:10
  whatever's available there,
• 33:12
  probably worth putting it in,
• 33:13
  right?
• 33:14
  To an all-in position.
• 33:16
  So as I started getting closer to this,
• 33:17
  I realized I had 3
• 33:19
  all-in positions
• 33:21
  in this particular
• 33:23
  election.
• 33:24
  And it started out,
• 33:25
  we'll start here with the Florida GOP governor primary.
• 33:29
  I had an all-in position,
• 33:30
  position on Donald's,
• 33:32
  and that one
• 33:33
  did hit,
• 33:34
  thankfully,
• 33:35
  yes.
• 33:36
  I had an all-in position on Fishback,
• 33:39
  no,
• 33:39
  in that same contest,
• 33:40
  and,
• 33:41
  uh,
• 33:41
  that one hit as well.
• 33:42
  I had a medium position on Collins,
• 33:45
  a no,
• 33:46
  and,
• 33:46
  uh,
• 33:46
  we hit that
• 33:47
  as well.
• 33:48
  Let me give you a little bit more on the
• 33:50
  Florida GOP election cause that was the one I really,
• 33:52
  I probably,
• 33:53
  you know,
• 33:53
  had the most focus on.
• 33:56
  We also had a kind of a side position of,
• 33:58
  of,
• 33:59
  uh,
• 33:59
  who will endorse
• 34:01
  Fishback.
• 34:02
  Fishback was kind of the,
• 34:03
  you know,
• 34:03
  controversial candidate in the race,
• 34:05
  so a lot of online buzz.
• 34:07
  There was a there was a,
• 34:08
  uh,
• 34:09
  uh,
• 34:09
  a contract in there for Laura Loomer,
• 34:10
  who is very much pro-Israel.
• 34:12
  I think you could describe
• 34:13
  Fishback as the opposite of that,
• 34:15
  uh,
• 34:15
  and,
• 34:16
  uh,
• 34:16
  so I did not think Laura Loomer would endorse,
• 34:18
  uh,
• 34:19
  Fishbach.
• 34:20
  We had that as a no and a small position,
• 34:22
  we hit that as well.
• 34:23
  Uh,
• 34:24
  then we go to the fish back
• 34:26
  vote percentage markets
• 34:27
  and some,
• 34:28
  sometimes when you have a situation like this,
• 34:30
  and the way I played this Florida GOP governor
• 34:33
  race is
• 34:34
  instructive in a way into what we're gonna be doing here
• 34:37
  in the coming weeks as we get closer to November.
• 34:40
  Investing in in in in Byron Donald's yesterday
• 34:44
  would have given you about a 2% return in a day.
• 34:48
  There's nothing wrong with that,
• 34:49
  right?
• 34:49
  A 2% return in a day.
• 34:51
  Kind of nice,
• 34:51
  right?
• 34:52
  Uh,
• 34:52
  you know,
• 34:53
  the,
• 34:53
  the APR on that is pretty fancy,
• 34:55
  over 700%.
• 34:57
  But 2% is 2%,
• 34:58
  and despite the fact it's a short period of time,
• 35:00
  it's not the sexiest thing in the world.
• 35:02
  One of the things we're realizing as these,
• 35:04
  and we're adjusting our strategy a little bit on this,
• 35:06
  as these markets are getting smarter,
• 35:07
  we're realizing we need to be a little bit more ahead
• 35:10
  of these markets.
• 35:11
  Byron Donald's was one that we were,
• 35:13
  we,
• 35:13
  we talked about months ago.
• 35:15
  I started investing in In Donald's in March,
• 35:17
  uh,
• 35:18
  about 83% chance to win.
• 35:20
  We rode it up and I invested all the way up,
• 35:22
  uh,
• 35:22
  into the nineties,
• 35:23
  um,
• 35:23
  and wound up taking a really nice profit on quite a large investment,
• 35:28
  uh,
• 35:28
  our biggest size,
• 35:30
  and we wound up not making 2% but making,
• 35:32
  I don't know,
• 35:33
  something like 12 or 13,
• 35:34
  I think was the average.
• 35:36
  Uh,
• 35:36
  same thing with Fishback.
• 35:37
  Fishback at times was in the 10 and the 12 range.
• 35:39
  By yesterday,
• 35:40
  he was,
• 35:40
  you know,
• 35:41
  I only had a 1% chance to win.
• 35:42
  We went against him
• 35:44
  all the way down,
• 35:45
  uh,
• 35:45
  seeing that one kind of coming.
• 35:47
  So,
• 35:48
  when you have a situation where it's a day before,
• 35:51
  and you,
• 35:53
  uh,
• 35:53
  have already kind of lost all the profit that you
• 35:55
  could have had from a couple of months ago,
• 35:56
  that happens.
• 35:57
  We,
• 35:57
  you know,
• 35:57
  there's definitely ones that I miss like that too.
• 35:59
  It's not a big deal.
• 36:00
  But there are other opportunities.
• 36:02
  Usually you find those in secondary markets.
• 36:04
  The secondary markets
• 36:05
  are things like who's gonna finish in 2nd place?
• 36:07
  Who's gonna finish in 3rd place,
• 36:08
  who's gonna finish in 4th place?
• 36:10
  What's the exact order,
• 36:11
  2nd,
• 36:11
  3rd,
• 36:12
  4th?
• 36:12
  Uh,
• 36:13
  what is the margin market?
• 36:14
  Who,
• 36:14
  who's gonna,
• 36:14
  not only who's gonna win,
• 36:15
  but who's gonna win by how much are they gonna win?
• 36:17
  They're gonna win by 5 points,
• 36:18
  they're gonna win by 10 points,
• 36:18
  they're gonna win by 15.
• 36:20
  And then the vote percentage markets.
• 36:22
  That's the one I kind of locked in on yesterday
• 36:24
  on James Fishback.
• 36:25
  I wish I did the Collins one cause I had a,
• 36:27
  I think I had a winning take on the Collins of Jay Collins was the other guy running.
• 36:30
  He wound up finishing in 2nd in this race with about
• 36:33
  uh mid-20%,
• 36:35
  uh,
• 36:35
  uh,
• 36:36
  vote
• 36:37
  comeback.
• 36:37
  He was,
• 36:37
  you know,
• 36:38
  by far outperformed the other candidates that got a lot more
• 36:40
  hype.
• 36:42
  But I did it with Fishback,
• 36:43
  and what we said is,
• 36:44
  OK,
• 36:44
  there's a bunch of markets on there.
• 36:46
  Will he get more than 3% of the vote?
• 36:48
  I had a yes on that.
• 36:49
  Uh,
• 36:49
  that was a win.
• 36:50
  Will they get more than 5% of the vote?
• 36:52
  Had a yes on that,
• 36:52
  that was a win.
• 36:53
  Uh,
• 36:54
  6% of the vote,
• 36:55
  yes,
• 36:55
  win,
• 36:56
  7%,
• 36:57
  yes,
• 36:57
  win,
• 36:57
  8%,
• 36:58
  yes,
• 36:59
  win,
• 36:59
  9%,
• 37:00
  yes,
• 37:00
  win,
• 37:01
  10%,
• 37:02
  yes,
• 37:02
  win,
• 37:02
  15%,
• 37:04
  yes,
• 37:05
  loss.
• 37:05
  So that one we lost,
• 37:06
  but we rode that up 356789,
• 37:10
  and 10% positions and all of those smaller markers,
• 37:13
  not,
• 37:13
  not,
• 37:14
  not big,
• 37:14
  uh,
• 37:15
  big positions.
• 37:16
  Um,
• 37:17
  and then.
• 37:18
  We looked at the other side of it.
• 37:19
  Will he get over 30%?
• 37:21
  And I thought that was way out of line as to where he would be.
• 37:24
  Uh,
• 37:25
  and we picked no on that one with a medium position.
• 37:28
  So,
• 37:28
  of all those,
• 37:29
  12345678,
• 37:32
  we had 9 different positions
• 37:34
  in that vote percent market and hit 8 out of the 9.
• 37:38
  Anywhere that it settled between 5 and,
• 37:41
  uh,
• 37:42
  30,
• 37:43
  we were gonna do OK.
• 37:44
  The premium one for us,
• 37:46
  money-wise would have been 16%,
• 37:48
  uh,
• 37:48
  but we didn't quite get there.
• 37:50
  He got to,
• 37:50
  I think,
• 37:50
  10.5%,
• 37:51
  10.7%.
• 37:52
  Anyway,
• 37:53
  so we hit all of them except for one,
• 37:54
  and that was a very profitable overall,
• 37:57
  uh,
• 37:57
  trade.
• 37:58
  Uh,
• 37:58
  a couple of other ones.
• 37:59
  Another all-in position I had in the Florida GOP Senate.
• 38:02
  I've told the story multiple times,
• 38:03
  I won't bore you with it again,
• 38:04
  but
• 38:05
  the Second Amendment,
• 38:05
  uh,
• 38:06
  is you got to read the rules.
• 38:07
  The genesis of that amendment was my Ashley Moody
• 38:11
  investment from a couple of years ago.
• 38:13
  I'll let you go back and watch that video if you.
• 38:14
  I want to hear that story.
• 38:15
  It was an interesting one.
• 38:16
  Oops.
• 38:17
  But I held the position for a couple of years
• 38:19
  and wound up,
• 38:20
  uh,
• 38:20
  I did,
• 38:21
  uh,
• 38:22
  Florida GOP Senate,
• 38:23
  Ashley Moody,
• 38:24
  an all-in position.
• 38:24
  We did hit that.
• 38:26
  I had a couple of other old positions in that particular race as well,
• 38:29
  uh,
• 38:29
  which were people who didn't even run,
• 38:31
  uh,
• 38:31
  a no on Corey Mills,
• 38:34
  uh,
• 38:34
  and a no on Ron DeSantiss
• 38:36
  to win,
• 38:37
  uh,
• 38:37
  because a lot of people were speculating he might run for Senate,
• 38:39
  which I
• 38:40
  Just,
• 38:41
  I don't know,
• 38:41
  just didn't see as a possibility there.
• 38:43
  So we did win,
• 38:44
  uh,
• 38:44
  both of those as well,
• 38:45
  a medium and a large position.
• 38:47
  Uh,
• 38:47
  Florida Senate,
• 38:48
  um,
• 38:49
  we did wind up coming in
• 38:50
  later on.
• 38:50
  I mentioned with this Vinman-Nixon
• 38:53
  race.
• 38:53
  I didn't have anything at the beginning,
• 38:54
  wound up coming in on Vinman,
• 38:56
  uh,
• 38:57
  reversed myself on that,
• 38:59
  went,
• 38:59
  uh,
• 38:59
  no on Vinman and yes on Nixon,
• 39:02
  hit both of those.
• 39:03
  Uh,
• 39:04
  a couple of,
• 39:04
  uh,
• 39:05
  uh,
• 39:05
  House races I had.
• 39:07
  Was Florida 06,
• 39:08
  uh,
• 39:09
  GOP Dan Bilzarian,
• 39:11
  we had him as a no,
• 39:12
  a medium position hit that.
• 39:14
  Florida 20 Deborah,
• 39:15
  uh,
• 39:15
  Debbie Wasserman Schultz,
• 39:17
  yes,
• 39:18
  she was in competition,
• 39:19
  uh,
• 39:19
  in a,
• 39:20
  uh,
• 39:20
  majority African American district
• 39:22
  that had 4 African American candidates and her.
• 39:25
  And so they all split the vote and she won
• 39:27
  relatively easily
• 39:29
  there.
• 39:30
  Uh,
• 39:30
  Debbie Wasserman Schultz,
• 39:31
  Alaska,
• 39:32
  we did have Begich to get through an advance in the GO in the governor,
• 39:36
  uh,
• 39:36
  primary,
• 39:37
  and we hit that.
• 39:39
  We had
• 39:39
  Hageman,
• 39:40
  a large position on her to win that Wyoming GOP primary,
• 39:44
  really wasn't close.
• 39:45
  An interesting thing happened there where the vote.
• 39:47
  Totals initially had her down
• 39:48
  for a short period of time,
• 39:50
  freaked some people out.
• 39:51
  We added a little bit to our position there and wound up making a little bit more.
• 39:54
  And then Degenfelder,
• 39:56
  we did have a yes marker position as she fell very,
• 39:59
  very low.
• 40:00
  Big long shot position did not come through.
• 40:02
  That was a miss.
• 40:03
  And then,
• 40:03
  uh,
• 40:04
  we had,
• 40:05
  uh,
• 40:06
  uh,
• 40:07
  Degan felt,
• 40:08
  uh,
• 40:08
  let's see.
• 40:09
  Uh,
• 40:09
  Skavgaard,
• 40:10
  I can't remember his name.
• 40:11
  I had him as a no in Wyoming,
• 40:13
  Haman as a yes
• 40:14
  for the GOP Senate,
• 40:15
  and then the governor Haman,
• 40:17
  a no because for again,
• 40:18
  uh,
• 40:18
  Haman was listed in both markets,
• 40:20
  wasn't running for governor,
• 40:21
  so we thought
• 40:22
  that looked promising that she wasn't gonna win.
• 40:24
  And then,
• 40:25
  uh,
• 40:25
  Dagenfeld to that one that we got wrong.
• 40:27
  So overall.
• 40:29
  26 wins
• 40:30
  and 2 losses in our markets.
• 40:33
  Uh,
• 40:33
  28 different positions went 26 and 2.
• 40:35
  Very profitable evening,
• 40:37
  especially because a lot of those positions were very big.
• 40:39
  I mean,
• 40:39
  that was by far the most money I've had committed to any of those,
• 40:42
  any of these weeks,
• 40:43
  which was interesting,
• 40:44
  largely because,
• 40:45
  uh,
• 40:45
  it,
• 40:46
  it only had really one big state,
• 40:48
  Florida.
• 40:48
  I had some other positions in the other stuff,
• 40:49
  but
• 40:50
  it was really more Florida than anything else.
• 40:52
  So another good day,
• 40:53
  uh,
• 40:54
  you know,
• 40:54
  I feel really good about that one.
• 40:55
  Much better.
• 40:56
  Last week I went 27 and 2.
• 40:58
  Uh,
• 40:58
  and it sucked because I blew most of my profit on the stupid,
• 41:02
  uh,
• 41:02
  Francesca Hong election.
• 41:04
  It wasn't for that one,
• 41:05
  I
• 41:06
  Francesca.
• 41:08
  I hope to never hear from Francesca Hong
• 41:10
  as uh at all ever again,
• 41:12
  and I hope Thanksgiving lives on forever.
• 41:14
  OK,
• 41:15
  I'm gonna take a break,
• 41:16
  come back on the other side.
• 41:17
  By the way,
• 41:17
  if you have wins and losses,
• 41:19
  put them in the chat at predictableShow.com.
• 41:21
  You can get,
• 41:22
  uh,
• 41:22
  if you,
• 41:22
  if you're not there,
• 41:23
  all you have to do is sign up,
• 41:24
  give you your email,
• 41:24
  you can go chat there for free.
• 41:26
  There's a free chat part of it which is actually really
• 41:28
  vibrant and a great conversation there.
• 41:30
  Then we have the premium chat which,
• 41:31
  you know,
• 41:31
  it gets a little bit more detailed and,
• 41:33
  uh,
• 41:33
  as you get maybe as you become a bigger trader,
• 41:35
  I think you'll really get a lot.
• 41:37
  Um,
• 41:37
  out of that as well.
• 41:38
  You can get that resource I talked about earlier,
• 41:40
  uh,
• 41:40
  all sorts of stuff
• 41:41
  is there and you get every,
• 41:43
  uh,
• 41:43
  position I take.
• 41:44
  So
• 41:44
  you don't have to hear about these all at the end,
• 41:47
  right?
• 41:47
  Like
• 41:48
  it's not always as helpful.
• 41:49
  I mean,
• 41:49
  I wanna do it for accountability's sake,
• 41:51
  but generally speaking,
• 41:52
  it's much better to get them early.
• 41:54
  So,
• 41:54
  uh,
• 41:54
  you can take advantage of them,
• 41:55
  especially when they come out really,
• 41:56
  uh,
• 41:57
  really positively.
• 41:58
  We've had great
• 41:59
  fortune so far,
• 42:00
  uh,
• 42:00
  in this primary season.
• 42:02
  I hope you've been along for the ride.
• 42:03
  If not,
• 42:04
  not too late.
• 42:04
  Tons of stuff to come.
• 42:05
  November's right around the corner.
• 42:07
  Get on board.
• 42:07
  Predictableshow.com.
• 42:09
  Got a brand new segment coming up next.
• 42:24
  Brand new segment on the program called
• 42:26
  Instacell.
• 42:29
  This is something,
• 42:29
  it's an emotional thing.
• 42:31
  You feel it in your bones.
• 42:34
  You're looking at a position,
• 42:35
  you've got it in a prediction market,
• 42:37
  and all of a sudden,
• 42:38
  you see
• 42:40
  something,
• 42:41
  some new piece of information,
• 42:43
  and you go from holding a position.
• 42:45
  To
• 42:46
  instantly selling it.
• 42:47
  It's the insta sell process,
• 42:49
  and it doesn't happen to me that often.
• 42:50
  I gotta be honest with you,
• 42:52
  uh,
• 42:52
  cause most of these positions I take on prediction markets,
• 42:55
  especially as associated with elections,
• 42:56
  is because I,
• 42:57
  you know,
• 42:57
  I've thought about them a lot.
• 42:58
  I,
• 42:58
  I've,
• 42:59
  I've,
• 42:59
  I've played out the positions in my head with,
• 43:01
  with the circumstances that might come.
• 43:04
  I've done research,
• 43:05
  I've crunched numbers,
• 43:06
  whatever the thing is,
• 43:08
  and you land on something where you think,
• 43:09
  I have really good reason to be in this position.
• 43:13
  And
• 43:14
  the fact that one piece of information could
• 43:16
  instantly make me reverse that is not common.
• 43:20
  I gotta be honest with you,
• 43:21
  I can't even remember the last time it happened,
• 43:22
  but it happened to me last night.
• 43:24
  And for this,
• 43:26
  today's example and uh
• 43:29
  Today
• 43:30
  Today's episode
• 43:32
  of Instaell takes us to South Carolina.
• 43:35
  And I'm wrapping up the election last night,
• 43:37
  and there's a lot of stuff going on.
• 43:39
  And I
• 43:41
  am.
• 43:42
  A person who holds some,
• 43:44
  uh,
• 43:44
  Darlene
• 43:46
  Graham Nordone,
• 43:47
  and I've been,
• 43:48
  uh,
• 43:49
  against
• 43:50
  Norman,
• 43:50
  not because I don't think Norman would be a fine senator,
• 43:53
  he probably would be,
• 43:54
  um,
• 43:54
  but
• 43:55
  just because I'm trying to predict who the winner is,
• 43:57
  and Trump is on the side of Graham,
• 43:59
  does not like Norman.
• 44:00
  I took a no Norman position before even the runoff.
• 44:04
  Uh,
• 44:05
  that one was up a few percent.
• 44:06
  And then I had a Graham Nordone,
• 44:09
  uh,
• 44:10
  yes position.
• 44:11
  Uh,
• 44:12
  that was up about 22,
• 44:14
  23%.
• 44:16
  That's where I was last night.
• 44:19
  There was a debate last night
• 44:22
  between these candidates.
• 44:23
  And uh
• 44:25
  I wasn't watching it because I was
• 44:27
  with you watching the election results come in.
• 44:29
  Hopefully you're watching the stream at predictableShow.com and
• 44:31
  I'm going there and I'm hosting that,
• 44:33
  so I was not watching this at all.
• 44:34
  And I get a message from actually uh Dan Andros,
• 44:38
  uh,
• 44:38
  who said,
• 44:39
  did you see this?
• 44:40
  And,
• 44:40
  uh,
• 44:41
  with a clip.
• 44:42
  Now,
• 44:43
  I wanna show you this clip.
• 44:45
  And we'll talk it through,
• 44:46
  but it was an Instasell moment for me.
• 44:49
  Here is Darlene Graham in the debate last night.
• 44:52
  On the national security question as well,
• 44:54
  um,
• 44:54
  Senator,
• 44:55
  are Taiwan and the South China Sea national security issues for the United States?
• 45:00
  If so,
• 45:01
  why?
• 45:02
  Um,
• 45:03
  I'm sorry,
• 45:04
  could you repeat the question?
• 45:05
  Are Taiwan and the South China Sea national security issues for the United States?
• 45:10
  And if so,
• 45:11
  why or how?
• 45:13
  I'm just going to be honest here.
• 45:15
  I'm not on national security that I'm not that informed on national security,
• 45:19
  so.
• 45:22
  But I do support the military.
• 45:33
  Insta sell.
• 45:37
  Click,
• 45:38
  click,
• 45:38
  click,
• 45:38
  click,
• 45:39
  no more shares.
• 45:40
  Legitimately
• 45:42
  watching that.
• 45:43
  I'm out.
• 45:44
  I got a 20-something% profit on,
• 45:46
  on,
• 45:47
  on her candidacy.
• 45:48
  She seems like a very nice older lady.
• 45:52
  But that's the thing,
• 45:53
  that's what she seems to be,
• 45:54
  which is a very nice older lady.
• 45:57
  That does not mean she should be senator.
• 46:00
  And frankly,
• 46:01
  I'm,
• 46:03
  I,
• 46:03
  I was scared to hold the position because I think when people see stuff like that.
• 46:08
  They may very well go to Norman,
• 46:09
  despite what the president might want or what they might feel as far as,
• 46:13
  uh,
• 46:13
  you know,
• 46:13
  sympathy for the family.
• 46:15
  Obviously,
• 46:16
  Lindsey Graham passing away is the reason why she's in this situation.
• 46:19
  It's a very
• 46:20
  difficult situation.
• 46:21
  I'm,
• 46:22
  I,
• 46:22
  I'm not even trying to bash her here.
• 46:23
  This is not me like making fun of a politician.
• 46:25
  This is a very difficult situation.
• 46:27
  Her brother just died
• 46:29
  unexpectedly.
• 46:30
  She's in this position,
• 46:31
  you know,
• 46:32
  I don't think she wanted this up until a few weeks ago.
• 46:35
  She's kind of talked into it by everybody and maybe she wanted it anyway,
• 46:39
  I don't know.
• 46:39
  I don't know her.
• 46:42
  But
• 46:43
  Being a nice young lady.
• 46:45
  Being a nice old lady
• 46:47
  does not put you in a position.
• 46:49
  Where you should be senator,
• 46:51
  you are going to be dealing with foreign policy issues routinely in this job.
• 46:57
  Being not very informed on the issue is not a thing
• 47:02
  you can be.
• 47:03
  It is certainly not a thing you should say.
• 47:07
  Especially when your brother was known for nothing else but foreign policy.
• 47:12
  It seemed to be the only thing he cared about when he was senator.
• 47:15
  To go in there and not have a position.
• 47:17
  And again,
• 47:17
  you don't have to be
• 47:19
  a genius on foreign policy.
• 47:21
  You don't really need to know anything
• 47:24
  about China or Taiwan to answer a question like that.
• 47:26
  The question was,
• 47:27
  on national security,
• 47:29
  are,
• 47:29
  uh,
• 47:29
  are,
• 47:30
  uh,
• 47:30
  are Taiwan and South China Sea national security issues for the United States?
• 47:34
  If so,
• 47:34
  why?
• 47:37
  You don't know
• 47:38
  why China,
• 47:40
  forget even the China-Taiwan relationship.
• 47:42
  You don't know why China is a national security issue to the United States,
• 47:46
  and you,
• 47:47
  I should just point this out,
• 47:48
  she is currently a senator.
• 47:49
  Currently,
• 47:51
  she doesn't need to win this race to become a senator,
• 47:53
  she's currently a senator.
• 47:55
  Now,
• 47:55
  you're not gonna know every detail about every,
• 47:58
  everything,
• 47:58
  but you have to be able
• 48:00
  to
• 48:01
  formulate
• 48:02
  something.
• 48:03
  You could easily say something like,
• 48:05
  well,
• 48:06
  you know,
• 48:07
  look,
• 48:07
  uh,
• 48:07
  we are working on that in the Senate,
• 48:09
  and,
• 48:10
  uh,
• 48:10
  frankly,
• 48:11
  I don't think it makes sense for the United States for me
• 48:13
  to be tipping my hand on stage to talk about all the details
• 48:17
  between that arrangement.
• 48:17
  What I can say is on principle.
• 48:19
  It's very,
• 48:20
  very important to me that we have,
• 48:22
  uh,
• 48:22
  a strong military so we can enforce a peace through strength,
• 48:26
  uh,
• 48:26
  you know,
• 48:27
  uh,
• 48:27
  apparatus,
• 48:28
  uh,
• 48:28
  to support our allies.
• 48:30
  Whatever.
• 48:31
  I just,
• 48:31
  I just said nothing.
• 48:33
  None of the words I just said meant anything.
• 48:35
  But you have to have the ability to come up with something in a moment like that.
• 48:40
  And I,
• 48:40
  honestly,
• 48:41
  if she does win this primary,
• 48:43
  I'm terrified of what a normal debate looks like against a Democrat
• 48:47
  when you're not talking about a former Fox News personality
• 48:50
  answering the question or asking the question.
• 48:52
  The,
• 48:53
  the media is going to come after her,
• 48:54
  and they're going to put her in all sorts of positions like that to make her look
• 48:58
  like that.
• 48:59
  And any Democrat running against her is gonna
• 49:01
  put that in every single commercial against her.
• 49:04
  You know,
• 49:04
  uh,
• 49:05
  you know,
• 49:05
  I said that to somebody and,
• 49:06
  and they were like,
• 49:06
  oh,
• 49:07
  well,
• 49:07
  I mean,
• 49:07
  she's got the job.
• 49:08
  It's nepotism,
• 49:08
  right?
• 49:08
  It's nepotism at its best.
• 49:10
  And,
• 49:10
  and,
• 49:10
  and I get it,
• 49:10
  like,
• 49:11
  it's a weird situation.
• 49:12
  You had a death in the family,
• 49:14
  uh,
• 49:14
  a person who was revered by some in South Carolina.
• 49:17
  She gets this job,
• 49:18
  she's in the,
• 49:19
  she's,
• 49:19
  she was working like to help blind people.
• 49:22
  She seems very nice.
• 49:24
  That was her job,
• 49:24
  she was helping blind people.
• 49:26
  And now she's thrust into this debate,
• 49:28
  like I can understand why you'd blow a few questions.
• 49:31
  But like,
• 49:32
  think about it,
• 49:32
  you know,
• 49:33
  think about it this way.
• 49:34
  Let's say,
• 49:34
  um,
• 49:35
  Jared Kushner,
• 49:36
  who is the guy who is,
• 49:38
  uh,
• 49:38
  you know,
• 49:38
  he's obviously married to Ivanka,
• 49:40
  uh,
• 49:40
  Ivana,
• 49:41
  which Trump is it?
• 49:42
  Which Trump is it?
• 49:43
  Ivanka?
• 49:44
  Why can I not think of her name?
• 49:45
  Ivanka,
• 49:45
  right?
• 49:46
  Ivanka.
• 49:47
  Ivana,
• 49:47
  Ivanka.
• 49:48
  Melania,
• 49:49
  there's all,
• 49:49
  there's all the names.
• 49:50
  Ivanka Trump.
• 49:51
  He's married to Ivanka Trump,
• 49:52
  but,
• 49:52
  you know,
• 49:53
  kind of headed,
• 49:54
  he's like heading up like peace in the Middle East.
• 49:56
  He's got like,
• 49:56
  he,
• 49:56
  he was the Marco Rubio with all the jobs before Marco Rubio.
• 49:59
  He had every single job.
• 50:01
  He's doing all this stuff.
• 50:01
  He's over there negotiating,
• 50:03
  uh,
• 50:03
  you know,
• 50:04
  the,
• 50:04
  uh,
• 50:05
  the,
• 50:05
  the Abraham Accords.
• 50:07
  He's going through all of that.
• 50:10
  And at the same time,
• 50:11
  uh,
• 50:11
  while he's doing all that,
• 50:12
  dealing with the Middle East peace,
• 50:14
  his brother
• 50:15
  just bought the Lakers,
• 50:17
  OK?
• 50:18
  His brother,
• 50:19
  we have,
• 50:19
  uh,
• 50:20
  that story,
• 50:20
  but it's Josh Kushner,
• 50:22
  along with Bob Iger,
• 50:23
  buying the Lakers for $12.5 billion.
• 50:29
  OK.
• 50:30
  Here's the thing.
• 50:30
  Let's just say they're walking down the halls.
• 50:32
  There's 2 press conferences they both have to be at.
• 50:34
  They scheduled them in the same hotel
• 50:36
  because they were gonna go out to dinner afterwards and hang out.
• 50:39
  And what happens is Josh Kushner
• 50:42
  mistakenly
• 50:43
  walks into
• 50:44
  the,
• 50:45
  uh,
• 50:45
  the Middle East Peace press conference,
• 50:48
  and,
• 50:49
  uh,
• 50:49
  Jared Kushner mistakenly
• 50:51
  walks in and has to do a press conference,
• 50:54
  uh,
• 50:55
  about the,
• 50:55
  owning the Lakers.
• 50:58
  And they've got a very important dinner reservation.
• 51:01
  They can't delay,
• 51:02
  they can't switch rooms back.
• 51:03
  They have to do the press conferences.
• 51:04
  They just walked into the wrong one.
• 51:06
  And I got news for you.
• 51:07
  No matter how much nepotism,
• 51:08
  it's just because they're,
• 51:09
  they're brothers,
• 51:10
  because they've been doing different things the entire time,
• 51:12
  if you ask Jared Kushner about what he was going to do with Luca.
• 51:17
  He would come up with a BS kind of
• 51:19
  answer that generalized what they were talking about,
• 51:22
  and it would have sounded not particularly specific,
• 51:26
  but passable.
• 51:27
  And when you went to Josh Kushner and you asked him about Middle East peace,
• 51:30
  he would have come up with something that was not particularly specific,
• 51:34
  but passable.
• 51:36
  That is a
• 51:37
  basic communication skill
• 51:38
  that you absolutely
• 51:41
  need
• 51:41
  when you're being targeted in an election like this.
• 51:44
  And look,
• 51:44
  I,
• 51:45
  I'm not saying she's gonna lose.
• 51:47
  She may pick this stuff up and maybe that's a wake-up moment for her.
• 51:50
  I hope it is.
• 51:52
  But I'm not gonna pay for it.
• 51:55
  I'm not gonna be in my account holding shares
• 51:58
  of her after an answer like that.
• 52:01
  That shows me she's not prepared
• 52:02
  for what she's about to go through,
• 52:04
  that she's not up on enough of these issues.
• 52:06
  I mean,
• 52:06
  to her own,
• 52:09
  her own testi testimony.
• 52:10
  I mean,
• 52:10
  she told you she's not informed
• 52:12
  on,
• 52:13
  not
• 52:14
  the Taiwan,
• 52:15
  but all of foreign policy she said she wasn't informed on.
• 52:19
  The entire category of things.
• 52:22
  That can't be what happens.
• 52:24
  You have to be more prepared for that.
• 52:26
  And I gotta say that's the people around her too.
• 52:27
  You got to get her up to speed.
• 52:29
  You don't need to have her
• 52:30
  giving specifics on every intricate matter,
• 52:33
  but I guarantee you she's going to get a bunch
• 52:34
  of tough questions on foreign policy in that next debate,
• 52:37
  uh,
• 52:37
  when it comes to the general election,
• 52:39
  that I can promise you if she gets through this.
• 52:41
  And she better be prepared
• 52:42
  on how to bob and weave a little bit,
• 52:44
  because that's part of the gig.
• 52:46
  All right,
• 52:46
  it's all the time we have for,
• 52:47
  uh,
• 52:47
  today.
• 52:48
  That's my Insta sell moment cause I did.
• 52:49
  I do not own shares anymore of No Norman
• 52:53
  or Yes,
• 52:53
  Graham.
• 52:54
  That's where I am.
• 52:55
  Your mileage may vary,
• 52:56
  but
• 52:56
  I don't need that stress,
• 52:58
  frankly.
• 52:58
  All right.
• 52:59
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• 53:00
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• 53:01
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• 53:07
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• 53:10
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• 53:15
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• 53:16
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• 53:17
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• 53:19
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