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Livestock Keeps Sliding as China Trade Hangs in the Balance | The Opening Look · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:05
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: Hello, world, and good morning.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: This is the opening look for Thursday, November 5th, 2026.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Nathan.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: The agricultural markets begin this Thursday with modest gains in the overnight grain dealings after another day of declining livestock prices and weaker cash and wholesale meat values.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: At the same time, attention turns again to trade in China, where the prospect of larger purchases of American farm goods remains a contingent upon a broader tariff agreement.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: In the next few minutes, we'll examine the overnight gains in corn and soybeans, Wednesday's livestock losses, the latest cash and wholesale figures, and Beijing's terms for buying more American farm goods.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: First, the price action.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: We begin with the overnight grain markets.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: December corn is up two and a half cents at four hundred forty six and three quarters.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: The gain places the December contract on somewhat firmer ground as the morning begins.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: January soybeans are up three and a quarter cents to twelve oh five.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: Soybeans too have advanced modestly in the overnight trade.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: The livestock markets present a less favorable account.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: Sellers maintained the initiative throughout Wednesday's session, extending a decline already underway.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: December lean hogs declined$1.05 to settle at$57.55, while February lost$1.22.5 to close at$62.30.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_00: Every listed contract finished lower.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: The decline loss extended across much of 2027 and into early 2028.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: Live cattle showed greater resilience, though they did not escape the decline.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: December eased 15 cents to 218, while February slipped 60 cents to 220.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: Feeder cattle registered the day's steepest losses.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: January dropped$2.65 to$325.72.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: March fell three dollars and twelve cents to three twenty eighty-five.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_00: Thus, the overnight grain markets begin Thursday modestly higher, while livestock remains burdened by an established downtrend.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: The immediate question is whether buyers will offer sufficient support to check that decline.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: That remains to be seen.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: The reports from the cash and wholesale markets offer no relief from the weakness recorded on the livestock exchanges.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: The national weighted average cash hog price declined$2.90 to$42.49.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_00: Cash hogs therefore moved lower with lean hog futures and the pork cutout.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: The estimated pork carcass cutout fell$3.14 to$69.29 with$306 lows reported.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: Every major primal declined.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: Bellies and picnics sustained the largest losses with no advancing primal to counterbalance the weakness.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: Boxed beef values also retreated.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: Choice declined$2.73 to$362.50, while select fell$1.72 to$356.65.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: The choice to select spread narrowed to$5.85.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: Reported volume totaled$114 loads across cuts, trimmings, and grinds.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: Taken together, these figures show a decline, extending from the futures board into the cash and wholesale trade.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: Cash hogs, the port cutout, and both grades of box beef all moved lower.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: From the markets, we now turn to trade with China.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: Beijing says it's prepared to purchase more American farm products, but only after Washington and Beijing carry out their reciprocal tariff cut agreement.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: Following the September summit between President Chump and President Xi, the two governments proposed a$60 billion package of reductions.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: The arrangement, divided equally between the two countries, has not but yet been completed.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_00: China's commerce ministry says additional agricultural purchases will follow only when that agreement is put into effect.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: Beijing earlier comment committed to buy$17 billion in American farm goods each year.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_00: Apart from its soybean undertaking, China is reported to be on course to meet the soybean target.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: The target purchases of other American agricultural products, however, totaled only$7.2 billion from January through September, the lowest for that period since 2019.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: An agricultural working group has been established, with a meeting expected before year's end.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: Until that work is concluded, the prospect of larger sales remains dependent not merely on demand, but upon whether the two governments carry out the tariff agreement.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_00: And so, Thursday begins with a divided picture.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_00: Corn and soybeans are modestly higher in the overnight trade.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: Livestock futures, cash hogs, and wholesale meat values remain under pressure.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: Beyond the markets, the possibility of larger agricultural sales to China is still conditional upon an unfinished tariff agreement.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: For American agriculture, relief in either quarter has yet to be established.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: In the livestock trade, buyers must first halt the decline.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: In foreign trade, the two governments must first carry their agreement into effect.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: That is the opening look for Thursday, november fifth.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Nathan.