Latest / Simply Bitcoin / INSIDER Reveals The Wall St playbook for Bitcoin in 2026 | EP 1401
Transcript
- 0:002025 is coming to an end and most people think it's been a
- 0:04complete write off. Confirming 2026 will be a bear
- 0:09market for Bitcoin as well, but a massive multi $100 billion
- 0:14firm just released a report that you do need to see.
- 0:18Bitwise just made five Bitcoin predictions that they expect to
- 0:22happen in 2026, and they may have given us a clue as to what
- 0:26Wall Street is preparing for. And the short of big guys is it
- 0:31is pretty bullish like it. It is a great, great read,
- 0:35though I will have to caveat a little bit of it before you guys
- 0:38throw tomatoes at me. There is a bit of all right
- 0:43story there, there's a bit of altcoin related stuff, which is
- 0:46why I said 5 Bitcoin predictions it's really 10 crypto
- 0:50predictions, but I'm only going to cover the ones that that
- 0:53actually matter here in my opinion.
- 0:55So here we go here is the, you know their kind of breakdown of
- 1:00it, the year ahead, 10 crypto gross prediction for 2026.
- 1:05So I'm going to cover the five ones that actually relate to
- 1:09Bitcoin 'cause that's all that really matter.
- 1:11That's the only thing that really there's obviously Bitwise
- 1:13this year has kind of gone. They are like very pro Bitcoin.
- 1:19As the year progressed, they did kind of go a little more again.
- 1:22Hold on, let me see where I'm at.
- 1:24OK, They did go a little more altcoin Y crypto towards the end
- 1:27of the year, but I guess you know kind of something you'd
- 1:32expect anyways. Here is the breakdown of course,
- 1:37predictions for 2026. I just want to read one thing
- 1:41here, which is basically the theme of the whole kind of
- 1:46report there. The predictions for this for
- 1:48next year is they think the bulls are going to win out in
- 1:512026. The prevailing positive trend
- 1:54from institutional adoption to regulatory progress appear too
- 1:57strong and too far reaching to be subdued for long, which is
- 2:02kind of something that I've been saying again, I've been very
- 2:05honest on the show. I have been confirmed bias for
- 2:07you guys here. I have been, you know, talking
- 2:10in my book here, I'm convinced that 2026 is probably going to
- 2:14be a little different than 2025. And by that I mean, it's not
- 2:17going to be a negative year. Now, I know Nico's been saying
- 2:20it's we might be an unprecedented uncharted waters.
- 2:232026 might also be down. You know, his infamous 30K
- 2:27prediction, which I think is absolute trash.
- 2:30But you know that that's what makes the show a little spicy is
- 2:33us not agreeing. OK, let's go into the first one,
- 2:36which is kind of the prevailing trend right now.
- 2:41You know, I, I was out here saying that I think the four
- 2:44year cycle is over. You've been seeing me and Nico
- 2:47on the show argue whether the four year cycle is in place,
- 2:49whether it's not kind of debating what even the four year
- 2:54cycle means, because I think that's kind of where all of the
- 2:58the arguments are coming from. You know, on the one hand, if
- 3:02you're saying the four year cycle is 18 months after the
- 3:05halving, we see the top that played out.
- 3:07If you're saying the halving cycle is 3 green, one red, Well,
- 3:10obviously this year's been a wash.
- 3:12The, you know, bitcoins last year, it's pretty much in the
- 3:15box. Obviously there's still some
- 3:17time left in the year, but at this point, unless something
- 3:22really crazy happens, I don't think we can I don't think we
- 3:27can be admit that we might see some positive action here and I
- 3:31I think this year's a wash. Let's you know, let's just rack
- 3:34it up as a wash. Look, I'll take the L if things
- 3:37change, but as of now, let let's just kind of lock in like let's
- 3:41put 2025 behind us and just go to 2026.
- 3:43Let's let's just see if 2026 is going to be different.
- 3:46So anyways, this one goes Bitcoin will break the four year
- 3:49cycle and set new all time highs.
- 3:51Hey, you know me. No shit yeah, you know you know
- 3:55me. Hey, I I am the hopium dealer,
- 3:58the reigning hopium dealer here on simply so no, but there's I
- 4:00do agree new. All time highs.
- 4:02I thought it would just break the cycle.
- 4:04No, no new all time highs, no new all time highs in 2026.
- 4:08So not necessarily what everyone's saying, but again, I
- 4:12am in good company here guys. You know at first, as I've been
- 4:15telling you, it was just kind of like a gut feeling, gut level.
- 4:19I was, I was just saying, dude, 2026 is going to be bullish.
- 4:24And then more and more people came out and I have a lot of
- 4:26good people, you know, in company here.
- 4:28It's like Lynn Alden's kind of saying it, sailors saying
- 4:31something similar. Obviously the bankers and
- 4:34institutions are kind of saying the same thing.
- 4:36Wall Street's getting bullish. Now.
- 4:38The Wall Street part is kind of icky, but you know, I got some
- 4:40good bit corners on my side here, so I'll take that.
- 4:44Probably the majority of people are thinking 2026 is going to be
- 4:47a wash. So you guys know me, I'm a huge
- 4:50Pareto principal guy and I was joking this morning with Sal, my
- 4:55trainer and I'm like, you know, I was feeling very good about
- 4:59this idea that the four year cycle was going to break.
- 5:01And then I kind of realized that like 80% of the influencers are
- 5:04agreeing with me. So it makes me feel like I'm in
- 5:07the wrong here. I like to be in the 20%, but the
- 5:10majority of people are probably like, it's over for Bitcoin.
- 5:13So I might be safe here. I might be safe.
- 5:15Anyway, let's break this down a little bit.
- 5:17Just going to kind of I'm not going to read again.
- 5:19I'm, I'm going to kind of glaze over this guys like you guys can
- 5:22read the whole full report. I'm going to just kind of pick a
- 5:24little bit of this to kind of back up what these predictions
- 5:27are based on. So Bitcoin has historically
- 5:30moved in four year cycles with three significant up years
- 5:32followed by a sharp pullback year.
- 5:34So at least they define what the four year cycle is in this
- 5:37regard. I think we're, I think we can be
- 5:40all in agreement that the four year cycle is broken.
- 5:42All our models are broken this year.
- 5:44You know, we did not see 3 green, one red, it is 2 green,
- 5:49one red. And who knows what's going to
- 5:50happen next year. Obviously it'll be unprecedented
- 5:54if we had two red years, especially when the institutions
- 5:57are fully coming in. So I I'm still, I'm still on the
- 6:01hey, we're going to go up in 2026.
- 6:03Anyways, here is their factors and why they don't see that
- 6:08happening, AKA 2026 bear market. And it goes in our view the
- 6:11forces that previously drove for your cycles, the Bitcoin having
- 6:15interest rate cycles, excuse me, and cryptos leverage fueled boom
- 6:19and bust are significantly weaker than they've been in past
- 6:22cycles, which is what I was saying yesterday.
- 6:25Obviously a lot of bit corners have always said the four year
- 6:27cycle is driven by the halving. But by definition, the halving
- 6:32every four years essentially cuts itself in half And so it's
- 6:36half as effective as it was in the past.
- 6:39More importantly, we believe the wave of institutional capital
- 6:42that be entering the space with the approval of the ETFs in 2024
- 6:46accelerate in 2026 and they they expect the combination of all
- 6:51these factors to push Bitcoin to a new all time high, basically
- 6:54destroying the four year cycle. And I'm all for destroying the
- 6:57four year cycle at this point, because you know, it wasn't it
- 7:00wasn't good this year. All right, I've I've been, you
- 7:05know, blue balled all year long. It's been boring stablecoin.
- 7:09You know, Bitcoin is our stablecoin.
- 7:11It's just, it's been a lost year.
- 7:13It's it's been a lost of a year. It is what it is.
- 7:15It that that's where we are. Look, I'm, I'm packing it in
- 7:18already, guys. Look, I know you guys know me as
- 7:20the most bullish guy on the show besides maybe Luke, but I'm
- 7:24packing it in for 2025. It's over.
- 7:26It's it's officially done. 2025 is, is in the books.
- 7:29OK? I don't think we're going to see
- 7:31crazy action by the end of the year.
- 7:34Maybe after the 26th we might see some stuff, but Christmas
- 7:38rally, Santa rally is no longer in play.
- 7:41I think it's a wash guys. May maybe we get to the price
- 7:45has been getting a little frothy, but.
- 7:47I don't know Santa Rally, but aren't we waiting for contracts
- 7:52to expire? Yeah, yeah, the 26th, that's
- 7:54what I'm saying. After Santa comes and delivers
- 7:57us some some coal, we can potentially start to reset the,
- 8:03you know, the chess board here. So maybe maybe the end of the
- 8:07year we start or end of this month we start seeing some
- 8:09action, but. I mean, it might set us up for a
- 8:13beautiful new year. I dude, I am, I'm locking in for
- 8:162026. I'm locking in for 2026 right
- 8:19now. I'm starting early.
- 8:20You know, New Year's resolution is now you can't start your New
- 8:23Year's resolution on New Year's 'cause that's not how it works.
- 8:26You got to lock in before. OK, Anyways, next one, their
- 8:29next prediction that Bitcoin will be less volatile than
- 8:31NVIDIA. Now this is where a lot of
- 8:34people that come into Bitcoin and they always say the same
- 8:36thing like, oh, I thought Bitcoin is money.
- 8:38It's too volatile. I would never throw my wealth
- 8:41into Bitcoin. It's it's too volatile.
- 8:43Well, the data for this year is very interesting.
- 8:46It is literally already been less volatile than NVIDIA stock.
- 8:50So it's already less volatile than some of the stuff that
- 8:53people already have gone all in on.
- 8:55So that's the data for 2025. And they're expecting that that
- 8:59that will also kind of decrease moving forward.
- 9:02That's kind of like the prevailing narrative we've all
- 9:04been seeing for a while that Bitcoin is quote becoming de
- 9:07risk as we speak. It's never been easier.
- 9:10It's never been more accepted to embrace or save in Bitcoin,
- 9:15invest in Bitcoin. That's just what the data is
- 9:18showing you. And here here's kind of a chart
- 9:20here, volatility, Bitcoin versus NVIDIA.
- 9:23You can see Bitcoin volatility is less than NVIDIA.
- 9:26And if we're being honest, the AI stocks right now are
- 9:30basically the only thing that's driving the entire economy right
- 9:33now. So you know, Bitcoin is less
- 9:35volatile than NVIDIA already. They're kind of expecting this
- 9:38to go down, which on the one hand, if things play out very
- 9:43similar, they might be right. But I, I need, I need volatility
- 9:48to the upside. I need volatility back in my
- 9:50life. This being a stable coin has not
- 9:53been fun, though. It is something that Sailor's
- 9:55been saying. And I think Sailor's an
- 9:57interesting example right now because of kind of how bullish
- 10:01he's been and his actions right now stacking so much Bitcoin, it
- 10:06really makes you wonder, does Sailor have some asymmetric
- 10:09knowledge right now? Does he know something is
- 10:11happening? Is this why he's stacking so
- 10:14much coin? Because there was about like a
- 10:163-4 months period where Saylor wasn't really able to buy that
- 10:20much Bitcoin. It was they were doing like it's
- 10:23still a lot They were doing like, you know, 100 million buys
- 10:26and we're like, oh, he's running out of powder.
- 10:28He's running the steam is running out.
- 10:30And then I don't know if you guys saw the data this morning,
- 10:33Chef said the Daniel Prince, but he did a good graphic just
- 10:38showing he didn't have strategy in there.
- 10:40But every Bitcoin treasury company is down basically on
- 10:45average 90%, which is absolutely insane right now.
- 10:49So yeah, just straight up wrecked out there.
- 10:52But Sailor's been saying this for a while that he expects with
- 10:57more people coming into Bitcoin, more institutions coming into
- 11:00Bitcoin, basically the Wall Street embrace of Bitcoin, the
- 11:03volatility is going to go down. Now, I'm not the biggest fan of
- 11:07this prediction. You this this one's probably my
- 11:10least favorite one here, but let's keep it moving, OK, The
- 11:13next one and again, some of these it's it's going to start
- 11:16to get a little shit Coiny here. So I'm going to skip over those
- 11:19ones. But this, this one is one of the
- 11:21main points I've been saying for the for the last couple of days,
- 11:24weeks basically. So ETFs will purchase more than
- 11:27100% of the new supply of Bitcoin as institutional demand
- 11:32accelerates. Now, there is some interesting
- 11:34little metrics in here since the crypto ETFs launch in 2024.
- 11:38We've been right. For instance, since the debut of
- 11:41Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, these ETFs have bought 710,777
- 11:50Bitcoin, and over the same time frame, the Bitcoin network has
- 11:54produced just 363,000 and 47 new Bitcoin.
- 11:59Again, you can have a 42 IQ and look at this and be like they're
- 12:03buying way more or quote buying way more Bitcoin than the
- 12:07Bitcoin network is releasing. And as we've been covering, it
- 12:11does seem like the whales are starting to acquire some
- 12:14Bitcoin. I just saw a number this morning
- 12:16that whales in the basically the last, you know, couple of days,
- 12:21I think it was the last 30 days have bought like 30,000 coins.
- 12:23So even though they basically sold 4 million, which is which
- 12:27is a way obviously a way bigger number, they are starting to
- 12:30accumulate again, which I think is why we're seeing the Bitcoin
- 12:34price be a little frothy right now.
- 12:36Again, the nine AM 10 AM market action right now is really
- 12:41interesting. It does look like whoever has
- 12:44been manipulating, I think we've all thought of it as James
- 12:47Street. I think they I think they
- 12:49delayed their their sell, their sell, you know, their sell off
- 12:53because it pumps at market and then 30 minutes later it
- 12:57absolutely just fully retraces. So I I like, I like what Bitcoin
- 13:02news said this morning. It's we're we're seeing a new
- 13:05pattern. It's called the twin towers
- 13:07trading pattern because it's just one straight and 1
- 13:11completely down. Hey, that's what's going on
- 13:14right now. All right, let's, let's.
- 13:15They couldn't. Call it an Eiffel Tower.
- 13:18I mean, it's kind of going. I mean, I mean, we are totally
- 13:22getting Eiffel towered right now.
- 13:23So yes, what they call it. OK, alright dude, guys, I'm I'm
- 13:30totally unhinged today. I'm I'm dying over.
- 13:33Here, we're very close to vacation.
- 13:35Yeah, I'm I'm not only vacation, I'm very close to just crashing
- 13:38out. Very close.
- 13:39To vacation next week, you're going to get a lot of me and
- 13:43Nico, so. Yeah, I'm, I'm very, I'm very
- 13:45close to just straight up crashing out on you guys today.
- 13:48So I'm, I'm gonna, I'm gonna hold it together.
- 13:50I know I'm gonna hold it together.
- 13:52I'm gonna hold it together. OK, So go going further, they
- 13:56go. We think ETFs will buy more than
- 13:59that of each asset, particularly given the recent approval spot
- 14:02crypt ETFs for contacts Bitcoin ETFs have already purchased more
- 14:06than $22 billion worth of Bitcoin and we can already
- 14:09expect that roughly or rather about $15.3 billion of new
- 14:16Bitcoin supply will hit the market.
- 14:18So obviously this doesn't guarantee that there won't be
- 14:21whales that sell Bitcoin. You know, if Bitcoin is
- 14:24definitely a supply demand, kind of pure supply demand dynamics
- 14:28playing out. But as you start to see and
- 14:32understand that this was the first year that most
- 14:34institutional capital can get into Bitcoin through these ETFs,
- 14:38you could just basically expect that next year that is going to
- 14:41increase. So whether that number double s
- 14:44even kind of stays the same it it is going to be very
- 14:47interesting to see how the supply dynamics play out.
- 14:50Now, of course, there is a caveat that like what are they
- 14:53actually buying? You know, they're they're
- 14:55supposedly buying a ton of Bitcoin, but the Bitcoin price
- 14:58hasn't done anything. Are they actually buying
- 15:00Bitcoin? Are we seeing another FTX
- 15:01scenario play out through BlackRock?
- 15:04I don't know if that's what's going on, but the amount of buys
- 15:08that I've seen this year that are alleged buys I've seen this
- 15:12year makes me wonder what they're actually buying.
- 15:15OK. I think we're on an episode of
- 15:17Punked at this. Point if you.
- 15:20If you keep believing that people like I saw this headline
- 15:23the other day on Twitter, Saudi Arabia just bought billions of
- 15:27dollars worth of Bitcoin. Like did they?
- 15:29Did they? They bought the ETF.
- 15:31They bought the ETF. That's crazy though, because the
- 15:33ETF is supposed to be spot right?
- 15:36So it doesn't that mean that they're supposed to?
- 15:41Yeah, they're supposed to be buying Bitcoin.
- 15:44OK, so then why are people buying the ETF?
- 15:47The ETF isn't going up. You know why it's not going up?
- 15:51Because they're not buying actual Bitcoin.
- 15:54So like, what is the point of that?
- 15:56You're getting the cash, you're getting your trash Fiat.
- 15:59Like at least put it into Bitcoin so that it can back up
- 16:03the thing that you're selling, which is just paper Bitcoin.
- 16:07It's also trash, but they don't even want to do that.
- 16:11Like I just don't understand it. I don't understand why these
- 16:15people are so hesitant. I I will put it nicely, they're
- 16:21just so hesitant to buying Bitcoin when.
- 16:24It's when. It's good for them.
- 16:27I mean, Bitcoin is for criminals and money launderers, right?
- 16:31The bank and whatever. Why like just do it bro just do
- 16:36it. Just buy Bitcoin already like
- 16:38God. Yeah, yeah.
- 16:42I mean, like I said it all year, I, I take back any nice thing I
- 16:49said about the institutions buying Bitcoin 'cause I thought
- 16:51they would pump our bags and they didn't do that.
- 16:53They're they're just here trying to steal your Bitcoin you.
- 16:55Know you're not the employee of the month anymore.
- 17:01We're taking that title away from you.
- 17:03Facts. It's over.
- 17:05It's over. And we're giving it back to
- 17:07Sailor. No, no, no, not at all.
- 17:10I anyway anyway, let's keep this moving.
- 17:14Let's keep this moving all right this next one is kind of what
- 17:17Sophie was saying. Their next prediction is half of
- 17:20Ivy League endowments will invest in and they did use the C
- 17:23word crypto. And basically we saw this year,
- 17:26you know, Brown University came out, they bought 5 million in
- 17:29Bitcoin ETFs. And then we saw that Harvard,
- 17:33but basically their biggest holding is Bitcoin.
- 17:36Now, obviously Harvard still, it seems like a prestigious
- 17:39college. They they still have that kind
- 17:41of, you know, authority figure. They're smart, they're one of
- 17:45the smartest ones. And they're basically TTLDR is
- 17:49if Harvard is allocating to Bitcoin, then everyone else will
- 17:53be like, maybe we should too. So they expect that other Ivy
- 17:57League schools, other Ivy League endowments will also start to go
- 18:00into Bitcoin especially. And their biggest kind of most
- 18:03important and maybe less obvious view here is that endowment
- 18:07funds, particularly the Ivy League ones, are often
- 18:11trendsetters. So are we seeing a trend here
- 18:15where everyone starts to wake up to, hey, I need to actually buy
- 18:18some Bitcoin? Is Harvard going to be able to
- 18:21kind of kick that off? I I think this one might be a, a
- 18:24kind of less, less kind of of affected prediction, but this
- 18:30one's probably going to hold up and I and I will look at their
- 18:332025 predictions so we can kind of gauge whether any of these
- 18:37will come true. OK, moving forward, we got, I
- 18:40believe one more. This one's this one's trash
- 18:43right here, a bunch of crypto ETFSI think, OK, here we go.
- 18:47Bitcoins correlations with stocks will fall.
- 18:51Look, one of the things that we've seen this year though,
- 18:54their numbers are kind of, you know, a little different.
- 18:57They're like they're the data suggesting that Bitcoin isn't
- 19:01that correlated with stocks. But as we've seen all year,
- 19:04Bitcoin is still kind of treated like a high beta risk on trade
- 19:10when NASDAQ drops when SP 500 drops Bitcoin was also dropping
- 19:15this year as well. But they go on to say using the
- 19:19rolling 90 day correlations, bitcoins correlation with the
- 19:22S&P 500 has rarely topped .5 the usual statistical divide lining
- 19:28between low and medium correlation.
- 19:30Regardless, they think Bitcoins correlations will stocks will be
- 19:33lower in 2026 than in 2025. And the reason we expect crypto
- 19:39specific factors like regulatory progress and institutional
- 19:42adoption to power crypto. I'm going to say Bitcoin even as
- 19:46equities struggle with concerns about valuation and short term
- 19:50economic growth. So here's a chart here if you
- 19:52want to kind of check their data.
- 19:54Obviously in the more recent years here, Bitcoin does
- 20:00correlate a lot more with the S&P 500, which I think is
- 20:04probably kind of explained by the fact that Bitcoin has become
- 20:09a macro asset. And people are adding it to
- 20:11their portfolios, obviously, they usually get their trade
- 20:15signals from like the Fed or what happens in the S&P 500, the
- 20:18broader markets. And that's usually why they
- 20:21divest out of Bitcoin early. Bitcoin has been the, the
- 20:24sniffing indicator here. It, it's basically been sniffing
- 20:28out everything in the market before it usually reacts, you
- 20:31know, a lot, a lot stronger. But I, I think in the last few
- 20:35years, we can all kind of agree objectively there is some
- 20:39correlation with stocks. Now, personally, I do believe
- 20:42Bitcoin is a risk off asset in the long term.
- 20:45It's completely unparalleled, completely uncorrelated with
- 20:49traditional, you know, trad FI products.
- 20:52But it is currently being kind of treated like just another
- 20:55stock. So unless more people start
- 20:57waking up to the idea that Bitcoin is completely different,
- 21:01I'm not so sure that we are going to completely break that
- 21:04correlation, though I would be very happy to see this one play
- 21:07out OK moving forward. I believe this is the last one.
- 21:11I've already lost count. Oh, that was the last one.
- 21:13OK, so here is their scorecard for 2025 predictions.
- 21:18And I think here is where we can kind of get an idea of how
- 21:23strong these predictions might actually correlate with reality.
- 21:27I saw someone in the beginning say, you know, predictions are
- 21:29like, you know, like opinions. Everyone has 1.
- 21:32So hey, what you know, not saying this is what's going to
- 21:36play out, but I think in interesting view of this is what
- 21:39I said in the very beginning that seeing what Bitwise is
- 21:42saying is probably not necessarily definitive of what
- 21:47Wall Street is thinking about Bitcoin.
- 21:49But you could argue that these might be some of the frameworks
- 21:53that they're kind of thinking through.
- 21:54This is kind of the lens that they're viewing what Bitcoin is
- 21:57and what it's going to do. So that's why I thought it was
- 22:00important to kind of talk about this today.
- 22:02So and of course, like 2025, it's a wrap.
- 22:05All right, 20/20/25 is over. I know we got what, 1020 days,
- 22:1110 days, 15 days, What, 13 days? I don't know.
- 22:14Math's hard right now. 1212 OK 12 days 13. 13.
- 22:19Yeah, it's dude, we're not going to see the the historic Bitcoin
- 22:23rally in the next 10 days. It's, you know, call me a
- 22:26Barrow. You want, I'm I'm already
- 22:27looking forward to 2026. OK, it is what it is.
- 22:30I want to tune out next week. I'm going to go hang out with
- 22:33the family for Christmas. Dude, this year's done for me.
- 22:36It's a wrap. I had enough.
- 22:38I I can't deal with it anymore. OK, but here let's look at their
- 22:41predictions from we're. We're finally going to go touch
- 22:44some grass, everyone. Yeah, Yeah, exactly.
- 22:46Finally touched some grass. OK.
- 22:48Yeah. We got spanked.
- 22:49Dude, for real. We got cooked.
- 22:51We got cooked this year. Yeah.
- 22:52Completely clicked. Hey.
- 22:54All right. All right.
- 22:55OK. All right. 12 days of Bitcoin.
- 22:57You know, I do like the the what?
- 22:59What are those cartoons? Like the 21 days of Christmas,
- 23:02you know, cartoons. No, the animations, you know,
- 23:05you know, I I like the correlation.
- 23:07So I'll hold out some hope. OK, I'll hold out some hope,
- 23:10guys. OK, don't shame me, OK?
- 23:13I will hold out hope. Dude, yeah.
- 23:16Dude, I'm I'm, I'm on, I'm on fumes here, Bros.
- 23:19Like I'm, I'm hold, I'm trying to hold out, but I'm a just, I'm
- 23:23cooked today, OK? I'm just the gym's killing me.
- 23:27The price is killing me. The news is killing me.
- 23:30I'm just I'm done. I'm I'm like I, I had.
- 23:32I'm up to my wit's end. All right, guys, You guys can
- 23:35shave me all you want, dude, 2026, dude, All right, just I'm
- 23:39I'll be vindicating 2026 hopefully, hopefully.
- 23:42OK, Just just. Honestly, stop talking.
- 23:48OK OK, here's their scorecard for 2025 and their predictions
- 23:52in 2025. Their first one was Bitcoin and
- 23:57some shit coins will hit new all time highs with Bitcoin trading
- 24:01above 200 K. They gave themselves AC.
- 24:03It did hit all time high, it just wasn't as bullish.
- 24:06So you know they were a little overly bullish which hey, can
- 24:08you really blame them? OK, the next one was Bitcoin
- 24:11ETFs will attract more flows in 2025 than they did in 2024.
- 24:16They gave themselves AD because that was in fact not the case in
- 24:212024. The spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in
- 24:2335.4 billion and in 2025 it only pulled in 22.4 billion.
- 24:29So there's that one. This one was completely wrong.
- 24:34This one was absolutely an F and it says Coinbase will surpass
- 24:38Charles Schwab as the most valuable brokerage in the world
- 24:41and it's stock will top $700.00 per share.
- 24:45Not even close. Coinbase stock was $44.00.
- 24:48And this year, if I believe, if I remember correctly, you know,
- 24:52Charles Schwab came out and said we, you know, we're going to
- 24:55raise Bitcoin, so complete F. And then 2025 will be the year
- 24:59of the quote crypto IPO with at least 5 crypto unicorns going
- 25:04public in the US. They were actually, you know,
- 25:06right about that one. Then this one is just absolutely
- 25:11dog shit. Tokens launched by AI agents
- 25:14will spearhead a meme coin mania even bigger than in 2024.
- 25:17Gave themselves an F Dude, all coins are cooked.
- 25:21They're absolutely done. It's over for all coins.
- 25:24Do not be buying all coins. I don't know if you guys saw
- 25:26this morning or maybe it was last night.
- 25:29It was actually last night, but Coinbase announced that you can
- 25:32now trade stocks on Coinbase. So they're even.
- 25:36Coinbase, the mother of shit coin gambling has kind of thrown
- 25:41in the towel on all coins and they're like, OK, look, this all
- 25:44coin stuff is no longer profitable.
- 25:46Everything's been in the bear market.
- 25:48There's not going to be another coin season.
- 25:51They're like, let's add stocks, you know, let's add stocks.
- 25:53I think I saw another tweet that said something on the lines of
- 25:57Robin Hood became Coinbase, Coinbase became Robin Hood.
- 26:01And they just, they're all getting wrecked right now.
- 26:04And now they're all trying to find a a new business model here
- 26:08because you, dude, everything is gambling.
- 26:11Every literally everything is gambling right now.
- 26:14I still have my predictor, which is that when all of the Bitcoin
- 26:19moms give birth, the price is going to go up.
- 26:23Well, all right guys, you heard it here first.
- 26:26Don't knock it until you see it. It's not.
- 26:28We're in the home stretch, so maybe the beginning of 2026
- 26:31might be that month for us. All right, boys, you heard it
- 26:36here first. We all got to knock up some baby
- 26:38Mamas. The The thing is, they they just
- 26:42have to be Bitcoin Maxis. That's the only.
- 26:45That's that's there's literally like 5 Bitcoin women.
- 26:48No, you got to. You got to convert them.
- 26:51That's easy. See, I wasn't born a Bitcoin
- 26:53maxi. Dude, I, I convert them all all
- 26:58right, all right, let's keep going.
- 26:59Let's keep going, okay? The number of countries holding
- 27:02Bitcoin will double. They gave themselves AC though.
- 27:06You know, the US did kind of establish the strategic Bitcoin
- 27:09reserve, the United Arab Emirates, Luxembourg, Czech
- 27:12Republic, they all did announce some pretty huge Bitcoin moves
- 27:17this year. So, you know, close, close, but
- 27:20no cigar. And then they give themselves an
- 27:23A Coinbase 1 to the S&P 500 and strategy will enter the NASDAQ
- 27:26100, adding crypto exposure to nearly every US investor
- 27:30portfolios. This in fact, did happen.
- 27:33Coinbase is in the S&P 500 since May strategy in the NASDAQ 100
- 27:37in December of 2024. And they stayed and you know,
- 27:41they're they're not actually going to get delisted.
- 27:43So there's that one the US Department of Labor will relax
- 27:47it's guidance against crypto and four O 1K plans enabling
- 27:49billions of dollars to flow into crypto assets.
- 27:51That's an A stablecoin asset will double to 400 billion as
- 27:54the US passes long-awaited stablecoin legislation.
- 27:57Well, they passed the genius Act so AC but it is it is what it is
- 28:04that I don't think they really got the 400 billion by year end.
- 28:08close but no cigar, as they said.
- 28:10And then these these last one. Let's see the bonus one in 2029,
- 28:14Bitcoin will overtake the 18 trillion.
- 28:16All right, it's like a $29 trillion gold market now.
- 28:19So they're they're going to circle back to that one in 2029.
- 28:23Probably, probably a good take. Now I think obviously their
- 28:29predictions, no one has an idea. It is just kind of a framework
- 28:32for what's going on. But I think the general kind of
- 28:35take away of this is the majority of Bitcoiners don't
- 28:40don't really I think in the current moment that we are still
- 28:43kind of working on old heuristics here and we're not
- 28:46really factoring in the the grander macro cycle going on,
- 28:50the business cycle going on. And this is partly why I think
- 28:54that the bulls will win in 2026. So that is kind of my take away.
- 28:58I do agree with this. I am confirming my bias.
- 29:01You know, I'm very honest and transparent on that.
- 29:03Like I am bullish for 2026 at this point can't be more bearish
- 29:08than 2025. I mean, you can be more bearish,
- 29:11it could be more bearish, but. Stop talking.
- 29:17Stop. Actually maybe keep talking
- 29:20because the reverse softy effect has been proven to also be a
- 29:25thing. Every time you're like we're
- 29:27going to RIP. We literally dumped.
- 29:30Hey dude, it's my cross. It's my cross.
- 29:32The bear here. I I In the words of Nico, I
- 29:35blame Opti and. Yeah, yeah, it's all my fault
- 29:39guys. I'm the market maker.
- 29:40I'm the one you need to out trade you.
- 29:43You know me, I'm trading on the one minute chart out there, so
- 29:46you need to out trade me. So we're.
- 29:48All looking at the one minute chart out there, like straight
- 29:50up I feel like a degenerate 'cause all I do is look at the
- 29:53one minute chart now. Dude, it's it's a good bit.
- 29:57Gosh, it's a great bit. I'm glad it caught on.
- 30:00I'm glad you guys love the one minute chart bit.
- 30:03I I thought that was that was hilarious.
- 30:05But anyways, inverse Opti. OK, guys, inverse Opti.
- 30:09All right, Hey, I'll take one for the team.
- 30:11I'm I'm not bearish, but right now I'm just like, can can we
- 30:15just like, can we Fast forward the next 12 days?
- 30:19Can we just get into 2026? Because 2025 was brutal.
- 30:22I tried, I tried, I, I, I tried to stay positive all year.
- 30:27Dude, you got I, I just need a break, all right?
- 30:29I I need the Christmas break and then I'll come back bullish.
- 30:32It was just really, it was just so disappointing.
- 30:36I don't know. I, I think that we all thought
- 30:39that it was going to be the biggest bull, right?
- 30:41Especially because we all got cut short in 2021 with the China
- 30:46mining ban. We thought that this time there
- 30:49are no obstacles in our way. In fact, all of the things are
- 30:53in our favor this time for once. And it turns out that everything
- 30:58being in your favor does not affect the price.
- 31:03Yeah, I'm, I'm going to really crash out in the news segment
- 31:05for you guys where we're we're seeing some political stuff and
- 31:12it's it's absolutely horrible. Anyways, let's let's keep the
- 31:16show moving for the numbers guys.
- 31:19I do have Ray Dalio just went on, I believe it was CNBC if I
- 31:26remember correctly. And he is absolutely bearish on
- 31:31everything. He's like it's it's over.
- 31:34He basically is saying it's over for not just Bitcoin, but like
- 31:38every market right now. I, I, I want to play it to kind
- 31:42of break, break down what, what I'm seeing and I, how I think
- 31:45this is actually bullish for Bitcoin and the news again, we,
- 31:48we got an interesting kind of rumor coming out of, you know,
- 31:52Capitol Hill, which is absolutely ludicrous.
- 31:56It, it is the dumbest thing I've ever heard.
- 31:58So we're definitely going to cover that.
- 32:00And then to wrap up the show, I, I got some data for you guys
- 32:05about, you know, what's going on in, in prices and and assets.
- 32:10And then Elon Musk said literally the dumbest thing I've
- 32:13ever heard in my life on Twitter.
- 32:16And so I'm going to combine the two here.
- 32:18But on that note, I do want to remind you guys to a smash the
- 32:21like button. Of course, comment on the show.
- 32:23Let me know what you think. Like give me some moral support
- 32:26for once, OK, Like is there hope for us in 2026?
- 32:30And then of course, subscribe to this to to the channel.
- 32:32Guys, we we dropped the best content period with I'm I'm not
- 32:36even gonna I'm not even gonna say that humbly anymore.
- 32:39We got the best stuff over here. All right, guys, also shouts out
- 32:42to the boys over at Bitcoin. Well, if you are sitting on the
- 32:45sideline, if you are looking at these dips here and you somehow
- 32:49still have dollars on the sideline, make sure you go to
- 32:52Bitcoin. Well, and the reason we love
- 32:53them is because they have never lost Bitcoin.
- 32:56They will never lose Bitcoin because they never hold your
- 32:59Bitcoin. Once your dollars go through, it
- 33:01goes straight to you in your Bitcoin wallet.
- 33:03Yes, you do need a Bitcoin wallet, which is an extra step,
- 33:07but it's a necessary step. As I tell you guys constantly,
- 33:10it's not enough to just get Bitcoin exposure.
- 33:12You need to actually hold that Bitcoin under your control AKA
- 33:18in self custody. This is the way.
- 33:20This is how you ensure that Larry Fink and Jamie Dimon and
- 33:24whatever other FTX Block 5 Celsius fraud doesn't get your
- 33:30Bitcoin because you don't leave your Bitcoin on the exchange.
- 33:33All right guys, quit Commercial Bake and we'll be right back.
- 33:43We'll give a shout out to our partner, Stamp Seed.
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- 34:56Dude. Guy.
- 34:57Zenkid you, you asked me to make a poll.
- 35:00I'm asking what poll should I make bro, not you make the poll
- 35:05all right? Anyways, anyways, the current
- 35:07Bitcoin price is 86,500. 10 Why? Was that so?
- 35:12I don't know I'm sorry dude, I'm about to crash out all right
- 35:15just let me let me let me work through some things here all
- 35:17right Current Bitcoin price $86,510, which is a 31.4%
- 35:24discount from all time high current market cap is 1.73
- 35:28trillion and the block height. The only time that really
- 35:30matters in the universe is the block height and it's currently
- 35:33at 928,443. Yeah, guys, this is This is why
- 35:38we we're never on time based on the YouTube time is 'cause
- 35:43we're, we're on Latino block height time.
- 35:46So that that's there you go some alpha for you guys.
- 35:49All right, so Ray Dalio just went on, oh, it's NBC, Meet the
- 35:52Press on NBC. He is saying, look, let me let
- 35:57me full screen. Ray Dalio is kind of a doomer.
- 36:01All right. First and foremost, he is kind
- 36:03of a doomer though obviously he's been in the market, he's
- 36:08got a lot of experience. I think there is some kind of
- 36:12wait to what he says. And really when you kind of hear
- 36:15what he's saying, there is some points where you can point at
- 36:20and be like this is happening. I don't know about the rest of
- 36:22it happening, but this is in fact happening.
- 36:25And and I'll and I'll kind of respond to that after the clip,
- 36:27so I'll be right back. I think that right now we are at
- 36:33a decision making point and very close to recession and I'm
- 36:37worried about something worse than a recession if this isn't
- 36:42handled well. A recession is 2 negative
- 36:44quarters of GDP and whether it goes slightly there, we always
- 36:48have those things. We have something that's much
- 36:51more profound. We have a breaking down of the
- 36:55monetary order. We are going to change the
- 36:57monetary order because we cannot spend the amounts of money.
- 37:01So we have that problem. And when we talk about the
- 37:03dollar and we talk about tariffs, we have that we are
- 37:06having a profound changes in our domestic order, how ruling is
- 37:12existing and we're having profound changes in the world
- 37:15order. Such times are very much like
- 37:18the 1930s. I've studied history and this
- 37:20repeats over and over again. So if you take tariffs, if you
- 37:24take debt, if you take the rising power, challenging the
- 37:28existing power, if you take those factors and look at the
- 37:31factors that those changes in the orders, the systems are
- 37:36very, very disruptive. How that's handled could produce
- 37:40something that is much worse than a recession.
- 37:43OK, First off, I think we've been in the recession for a
- 37:49while already. I think everyone kind of feels
- 37:52that I, I think we can all kind of admit, you know, the official
- 37:56numbers are saying we haven't yet gotten into a recession.
- 37:59They literally changed the meaning of what a recession was.
- 38:01I, I think, you know, you talk to anyone, they're feeling the
- 38:04pain, they just haven't actually acknowledged like we've been in
- 38:07a recession. So it's.
- 38:08Literally saying water is what? Yeah. 100% exactly.
- 38:12Now the more kind of Dumorish take here is that the obviously
- 38:17the tail of he thinks something worse in the recession is
- 38:20coming. So let me let me just think
- 38:23about this. What is worse than a recession?
- 38:27Oh, I know. Yeah.
- 38:28What? What is?
- 38:29That I know war. Well, well, worse than that.
- 38:32We've been in wars. We haven't left wars.
- 38:35It sounds like we're going to be into a Great Depression, you
- 38:38know? So hey, you know, he did say
- 38:41we're in a similar place to the 1930s.
- 38:44I don't know something, I said. War.
- 38:47Well, I mean, 1929 was the start of the Great Depression.
- 38:51So are. You OK?
- 38:54I'm dude, I'm melting, I'm tired.
- 38:56I'm literally dying over here. But yeah, so, you know, I, I
- 39:01think Ray Dalio's on the fence. He's like, I think we're going
- 39:04into the Great Depression. The greatest wait, the greatest
- 39:08depression? I think that the water is wet.
- 39:11Yeah, exactly. I I mean, yeah, the greatest
- 39:14depression is upon us, you know, I mean.
- 39:16It's kind of, to be honest with you, it's kind of nice that they
- 39:19haven't talked about it on the news, especially since the news
- 39:23and the media hate this administration in particular.
- 39:26So I find that a little bit surprising.
- 39:29But it's nice that they're not talking about it on the news
- 39:31causing a panic, even though every single person can feel it
- 39:35to their core. So I just what do you think
- 39:42these conversations sound like behind closed doors?
- 39:47Oh, they're way more like do you?
- 39:48Think they know? Yeah, they for sure know this is
- 39:51this is them doing PR. That's, that's my view.
- 39:54Like this is them essentially hedging their bets on what
- 39:57actually is. And they come out here and they
- 39:59say, you know, they say enough so that they can look back and
- 40:03point to these moments and be like, see, I was like warning
- 40:06you about it. And they knew exactly what was
- 40:08going on. That's that's kind of my view of
- 40:11it though. The really big point here that I
- 40:14do kind of agree with is that we are going through a monetary
- 40:18reorder right now that I think is is the clearest thing we've
- 40:21seen right now. Now whether this is now, now I
- 40:25look orange. Now we look.
- 40:28For colors. Do I don't do we?
- 40:30Yeah. I don't know.
- 40:31I don't ask the color blind guy, but OK, Is this what I normally
- 40:36look like? Crazy.
- 40:38That's my skin color. All right, OK, OK, OK, whatever,
- 40:43whatever. Anyways, we are clearly going
- 40:46through a monetary reorder moment right now, whether that's
- 40:51from within the United States, obviously the Fed versus Trump,
- 40:56the embrace of stable coins, you know the embrace of Bitcoin.
- 41:00There is kind of this shake up happening as we speak now also
- 41:05globally. We are seeing that we could also
- 41:09be potentially seeing the US essentially lose kind of their
- 41:14singular polar power in the world.
- 41:17It does seem like we might be heading into a multipolar world,
- 41:21which who knows what that could be.
- 41:22A lot of people been saying China, you know, a lot maybe
- 41:26some people been saying Russia as well.
- 41:28There's been the whole BRICS nation stuff going on.
- 41:31So we are starting to see that the world is being shaken up.
- 41:35The status quo of the last 100 years is is starting to change.
- 41:39Obviously, we don't know where that's going to end up.
- 41:43The choice from their perspective, a trad 5
- 41:46perspective is very binary. It's like, oh, either America
- 41:49stays number one or we go into a multipolar world.
- 41:52From our perspective, we're like, look, this is the Bitcoin
- 41:54era. You know, you guys aren't
- 41:57factoring in Bitcoin in this. And whoever does embrace
- 42:00Bitcoin, I think is going to win the monetary reordering that
- 42:04we're seeing right now. Surprisingly, I just feel like
- 42:07most of these institutions and, you know, the people in power
- 42:11are still not taking Bitcoin seriously the way that they
- 42:15should. They're still seeing it as an
- 42:16investment. They're seeing it as like, you
- 42:19know, this cute money that like they can play with.
- 42:23I mean, you even hear Trump saying it at the the conference
- 42:27last year. You have fun playing with your
- 42:29bitcoins and other things. They don't understand that this
- 42:33actually has global ramifications and that it can
- 42:37get us out of the hole that we have dug ourselves in.
- 42:41So as soon as somebody like actually starts to show them
- 42:45that this is the solution out of what is going to become a Great
- 42:50Depression if we don't start taking it seriously.
- 42:54It's so crazy to say, yeah, we're going to be in a greatest
- 42:57depression, Dude, Everything's chill.
- 42:59It's super chill. It's super chill.
- 43:02And also I, I didn't, I didn't actually watch it last night.
- 43:06But if you guys did watch it, you know, Trump did this whole
- 43:09like he did this. He was kind of marketing as like
- 43:14I have a huge announcement for you guys and what, what did he
- 43:18literally do throughout it? I, I kind of heard a summary of
- 43:20it. He basically like kind of lied
- 43:24or people are saying he trolled about going to war with
- 43:27Venezuela just so people watch it.
- 43:30And the whole conference was like, it's the golden age, guys.
- 43:34It's the best economy ever. Like, like you're what you're
- 43:38feeling right now isn't true. The data is in the best economy
- 43:42ever. And everyone's like watching
- 43:45this, Like, what the hell is he talking about?
- 43:47Nothing feels good right now. Like nothing feels like it's
- 43:51improving. In fact, it does feel like it's
- 43:54getting worse. Like, what are we talking about
- 43:56here? Like, can you stop the
- 43:57gaslighting? You know, like, you know, you're
- 44:00hilarious. Can you stop gaslighting me
- 44:03about how good things are though?
- 44:05The CPI numbers, if you believe those did come in and they are
- 44:08lower. So you know the manipulated
- 44:10numbers are doing a little better, but are.
- 44:13They were they the magically missing ones from October or?
- 44:17Yeah, yeah, no, they, they just put some new ones out for
- 44:20December. They didn't even give us the old
- 44:22ones. Yeah, so things are really bad.
- 44:25Things are so no dude, they're good.
- 44:27Come on. What's this is?
- 44:29The Golden. Age.
- 44:30What's up America? We all believe it because Trump
- 44:37says it's true. Yeah, totally.
- 44:40We're all right. I'm not.
- 44:43I'm not the only one crashing out.
- 44:44Looks like Sophie's crashing out on the show too.
- 44:47I am, I just don't even care. Anymore.
- 44:49Oh my God. It's only Thursday.
- 44:51I guess it's a Friday, not a Friday show.
- 44:53I like this comment from Lou Ferringo when they stop
- 44:56gaslighting. It's a depression.
- 44:58Literally. Literally, dude, everything
- 45:01right now is being pushed on vibes and narratives and
- 45:04marketing and in reality, like, you know what you're feeling
- 45:09right now. Like, look, they said they were
- 45:12going to pump Bitcoin. It's at 85 K or well, I don't
- 45:16know, yeah, 85 K. Like bro, I don't need to hear
- 45:19another speech about the golden age and how the economy is doing
- 45:24good and how they're magically going to make the economy better
- 45:26with no plan. Just pump or pump our acids at
- 45:32this point. Just pump my bags bro acid.
- 45:34Some pump our bags. This is the golden age of a man.
- 45:40Wait, wait, wait. I'm.
- 45:41I'm tired. I'm tired of winning, boss.
- 45:43I'm tired of winning. I'm so tired of winning.
- 45:46Yeah. Please, just I can we go back to
- 45:48losing? I know, dude, if this is what
- 45:51winning feels like, I don't want it.
- 45:53OK, take it back. All right, ANYWAYS, all right,
- 45:55I'm going to keep going into the news because I'm I'm, I think
- 45:59I'm really going to crash out on this next segment.
- 46:01This is just absolutely insane, so I'll be right back.
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- 48:38Oh, sorry. All right guys, I know that you
- 48:42didn't like my singing, so now I'm going to do some ASMR about
- 48:46the golden age of the economy. If you want the most goldiest
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- 48:55promo code simply for 20% off or just scan the QR code to make
- 48:59your life easy for once. Honestly.
- 49:04So golden age. So much better.
- 49:06So much better than Nico yelling at me.
- 49:08OK, here we go. Look guys, this is rumor.
- 49:12Speculation. Oh God, But if this is what's
- 49:17happening, it's the most asinine thing I've ever heard in my
- 49:21life. I'm I'm completely done with
- 49:23Bitcoin. Quote, quote Bitcoin
- 49:25politicians. I don't care what Nico says.
- 49:28It's it's freaking over all right, Check this out.
- 49:31So Connor Brown, who used to work for Senator Lummis, he's
- 49:36now at head of strategy at Bitcoin Policy Institute, and he
- 49:41tweeted this last night. I'm hearing very concerning news
- 49:45out of Capitol Hill today. De minimis tax legislation may
- 49:49be limited to only stable coins, leaving everyday Bitcoin
- 49:53transactions without an exemption.
- 49:55This would be a severe mistake. BPI will be publishing a
- 50:00response. Stay tuned.
- 50:01All right, guys, listen, did you hear what I just said?
- 50:08They're relegating de minimis tax legislation or they're,
- 50:13they're going to, you know, not do capital gains tax only to
- 50:18stable coins. What?
- 50:24What? This is the dumbest thing I've
- 50:27ever heard in my life. It's absolutely the stupidest
- 50:31thing ever. By definition, if it is a stable
- 50:36coin, there is no capital gains on it.
- 50:40Therefore, why would you need a de minimis tax, a capital gains
- 50:45exemption on a stable coin? Like, are you kidding me?
- 50:50This is bro Bitcoin politicians. Look, I tried, I I think, I
- 50:56think I'm done. I'm done with it.
- 50:58I tried this is like. This.
- 51:01Is the dumbest thing. Ever.
- 51:03Yeah, because they think that we're dumb, that that's the only
- 51:06way that they think that they could ever get away with this is
- 51:09because they think that we're stupid.
- 51:11They think we know nothing about money, which to be honest, most
- 51:14people don't, but still, like, they're cheating everyone.
- 51:17They're like, we did something and guess what?
- 51:21They're going to spend hours and days and years trying to get
- 51:25this passed because it's going to go back and forth because
- 51:28they're going to be like, this isn't doing anything.
- 51:31Yes, it is. It's going to give us the
- 51:33midterms and people will vote for that because they think that
- 51:36they're getting a capital gains tax removed.
- 51:39It's the. It is dumb.
- 51:41Thing. Ever.
- 51:43I mean, I mean, let let's be clear, some of us are dumb.
- 51:46I I. I have a question though, does
- 51:49that mean that theoretically, and this is not financial
- 51:53advice, but theoretically, if I were to take my Bitcoin and move
- 51:59it into a stable coin and then sell?
- 52:02OK. Now we're thinking and then sell
- 52:05and use that for something. No capital gains.
- 52:10All right, I guess I'm a stable coin maxi.
- 52:12If this passes, I'm a. Genius.
- 52:16Yo, dude, I I'm literally at a loss of words here for how dumb
- 52:23if this is, how it all right, this is kind of my maybe this is
- 52:28this is the final straw for me when it comes to Bitcoin and
- 52:31politics. If this passes and and they they
- 52:36basically exclude that little loophole that Sophie said, it's
- 52:42like it's over for me. I I don't care if you're a
- 52:45Bitcoin politician at this point, like metaphorically,
- 52:48let's just burn it all to the ground like it's over and it's
- 52:51completely over. Just.
- 52:52Do what you've been doing Anon and opt out of the Fiat system.
- 52:58Like maybe we thought that life could get easier by having
- 53:02institutions in the government and everyone be friendly and
- 53:06gung ho for Bitcoin. But the reality is that the then
- 53:10they fight you stage probably hasn't even started.
- 53:13It probably hasn't. That was like a a little pre
- 53:16battle with the previous administration.
- 53:18This is like a little pre battle when we see devs from samurai
- 53:23wallet going to jail. This is this is literally not
- 53:28the fight. The fight is going to be having
- 53:30them quote UN quote adopt Bitcoin, make the price go side
- 53:36to side and then gaslight you into thinking that they are
- 53:39removing a capital gains tax when in reality they're only
- 53:43doing it to stable coins and potentially will.
- 53:47That's like their own little loophole of making you use a
- 53:50CBBC because that's that's, that's what's coming, That's
- 53:56what's coming. And so again, I think that this
- 54:01year bitcoiners have been sort of punished for expecting
- 54:06everything. And you know, the, the price
- 54:09going up and we, we like, it's almost like too good to be true
- 54:13because it was. And I think we have to go back
- 54:16to our principles, the long term time preference and opting out
- 54:21of the Fiat world because what are we really building if we're
- 54:26still relying on these Fiat institutions?
- 54:30What are we really doing here if that's what the end goal is
- 54:34going to be? And if these huge institutions
- 54:37are going to be the ones that are holding Bitcoin for us.
- 54:40I read someone in the comments saying like, it's just so much
- 54:43easier to buy the ETF. Why would I hold my my Bitcoin
- 54:47in self custody? And it's like that's a skill
- 54:50issue. And second of all, like you, why
- 54:54would you hold your Bitcoin in self custody?
- 54:56Because your generational wealth depends on it?
- 55:00Because it's the only thing that stands between you and the
- 55:04government aside from the Second Amendment, because it's the only
- 55:08hope that we have. That power will be returned to
- 55:12the people. There's so many layers to this.
- 55:16And I think that we're finally seeing the mask off of these
- 55:20institutions, the mask off of the government.
- 55:23And it's it's time to really call this what it is.
- 55:27And it's they're they're fooling you.
- 55:30They're seeing you for who you are.
- 55:33And they're they're taking advantage of your naivety.
- 55:36Yeah, you're seeing. You for who you are.
- 55:38It's crazy. Listen.
- 55:40I'm a lappy seeing a mom, bro. I'm going to tell you how it is.
- 55:43And sometimes we, you know, we can't be suit.
- 55:47No Southendejo is what we say like they're they're going to
- 55:52they're seeing you for who you are and they they know that
- 55:55you're lazy. They know that you're weak and
- 55:57this is how they think that they can take advantage of you.
- 56:01But you can take your power back.
- 56:03You can. It's out there.
- 56:06Like I love what this guy just said.
- 56:08BlackRock is laughing at all of us.
- 56:11It's true. They're laughing at all of us
- 56:13because they know that they can take advantage.
- 56:15They know that they have the power and it's time to really
- 56:21like stop relying on these people and just opt out and
- 56:26you'll see how quickly the tide turns.
- 56:28You saw it happen in the election in the in 2024.
- 56:32You saw people start to bow down and those who didn't bow down to
- 56:37Bitcoiners and to you know, I, I guess I would have to admit like
- 56:41the crypto markets at large, they failed.
- 56:45And I think it's because they didn't have the support of more
- 56:48libertarian leaning people. And I think this is this is
- 56:52where we have to go. This is where we're at right
- 56:54now. And it's time to to take our
- 56:58country back. It's time to take our self
- 57:00sovereignty back. Yeah, no, I, I actually fully
- 57:03agree with that. I, I think at this point, if
- 57:09we're, if we're being completely objective and I know politics
- 57:12is, is hard to be objective like it does seem and, and I, I have
- 57:17been very lenient and, and kind of open minded to there is
- 57:20probably things happening behind the scenes and I do want to see
- 57:23the effects actually kind of play out.
- 57:25And I, I know all of the dynamics and the power dynamics
- 57:28and the, the political infighting all that.
- 57:31But with that all being said, like Sophie was saying, you
- 57:36know, at this point, like we got a call, you know, spade a spade.
- 57:40And if what Connor said here, Connor Brown said is true, then
- 57:46I think we got to kind of, you know, connect the dots here with
- 57:50what happened with the strategic Bitcoin reserve and, and
- 57:53acknowledge that a lot of the stuff we've heard around
- 57:55Bitcoin, it has been a lot of vaporware, like it's been a lot
- 57:58of talk, a lot of good marketing.
- 58:00Like I, I think at this point we got to be.
- 58:02I actually it's a little too late for it because the time to
- 58:05be unreasonable was during the the elections and now it's kind
- 58:09of like this is our bed. But moving forward, I think as
- 58:13Soph was saying, you know, we got to take our side, like we
- 58:16got to be unreasonable here. And if they aren't doing what we
- 58:20want them to do, then what the hell are we even doing here?
- 58:23You know, This is why we want opt out money.
- 58:26I think we, we kind of were hoping being a little naive that
- 58:29hey, you know, if we embrace them, then maybe they'll
- 58:33actually do some good for us. At this point.
- 58:36It turns out that's probably not the case here.
- 58:39So look, if this goes through, this is the dumbest thing I've
- 58:43ever seen in my life. You know, I was saying if, if
- 58:46they just completely treat Bitcoin as money, a limited
- 58:49capital gains, like I'll be cool with that.
- 58:51Just that in and of itself, if they do a stupid de minimis tax
- 58:55on stable coins, which is like the most stupid thing I've ever
- 58:59heard in my life. Like I, I'm, come on, I'm going
- 59:02back to my old days and I'm just completely tuning out of it.
- 59:06It's cooked. It's over.
- 59:08I, I'm not, I'm not feeling bullish about Bitcoin
- 59:11politicians at this point, you know, love Nico, I love Dennis
- 59:15Porter, but we're going to be crashing out on the show over
- 59:18Bitcoin and politics. Cause dude, I need to see more
- 59:22at this point. Dude, again, maybe it's just
- 59:24been a year. Hey, I'll, I'll take a step
- 59:26back. Maybe it's been a year and I'm
- 59:29frustrated about everything, but I, I don't think it's too crazy
- 59:33to say like I need to see some more.
- 59:36And if this is the type of legislation we're seeing, which
- 59:38is what I've been saying about, you know, the regulatory clarity
- 59:42is probably going to do more harm than good.
- 59:45Or at this at, at this stage, literally do nothing.
- 59:49I I guess maybe, I guess maybe I'm OK with literally do
- 59:52nothing. Like I'd be better off with them
- 59:55literally doing nothing at this point because this is just the
- 59:58dumbest thing I've ever seen. I just want to know where the
- 1:00:01breach in communication is. Clearly the people in power are
- 1:00:06either doing this on purpose or they're doing this out of
- 1:00:09ignorance. And if it's out of ignorance,
- 1:00:11then I want to know where the breach of communication is.
- 1:00:13And if it's on purpose, then that means we have the fight of
- 1:00:17our lives in front of us. I would I would venture to argue
- 1:00:23it is on purpose. This is so dumb.
- 1:00:26This is so dumb. All right, anyways, I'm going
- 1:00:28to, I'm going to, I'm going to keep it moving because I I'll
- 1:00:31probably crash out a little more than I need to.
- 1:00:34I'll be right back, guys. I want to give a shout out to
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- 1:02:34Shout out to Bitcoin Ben for that super amazing Rumble
- 1:02:38exclusive the other day. That was dope, so fun.
- 1:02:42Yeah, I've, I've heard those rants forever.
- 1:02:45I'm like, I got it finally. Nico can get them out.
- 1:02:47I'm excited for this. All right, guys.
- 1:02:49Anyways, I wanted to, I was going to bring this up a couple
- 1:02:52of days ago because or rather yesterday it came out and I'm
- 1:02:55like, I've been telling you guys this forever.
- 1:02:59Kobayashi letter did a great tweet about this and they go own
- 1:03:02assets again, sorry, own assets or be left behind.
- 1:03:06And they have a chart here. Wealthier households mainly own
- 1:03:09financial and business assets. The wealthiest US households
- 1:03:12with net worth above $1 billion hold roughly 37% of their wealth
- 1:03:17in stocks, followed by roughly 35% in business interest.
- 1:03:20Those with 100 million to 1 billion hold roughly 58% in
- 1:03:24businesses and roughly 10% in equities.
- 1:03:27By comparison, households with net worth under $10,000 hold
- 1:03:31roughly 36% of their assets in their primary residence,
- 1:03:35followed by roughly 34% in vehicles.
- 1:03:38The 10,000 to 100,000 group holds roughly fleet 56% of their
- 1:03:42wealth in their homes and roughly 10% in vehicles.
- 1:03:46Overall, Americans with a net worth of under $1 million have
- 1:03:50almost 0 exposure to equities. The wealth divide is widening,
- 1:03:55which is just absolutely insane. When you think about this, this
- 1:03:59is what you understand. This is like even when I first
- 1:04:02got into Bitcoin, before I even got into Bitcoin, the one thing
- 1:04:07I did understand, it's like rich people own stocks.
- 1:04:09They own equities. I need to figure this thing out.
- 1:04:12Turns out, as I've told the story before, I didn't have
- 1:04:14enough money to buy stocks. Charles Schwab would not let me
- 1:04:17even open a trading account. Then I found Bitcoin and I
- 1:04:20realized, oh, Bitcoin is the only thing to be holding.
- 1:04:24As much as I don't like the digital asset mean, This is why
- 1:04:27Bitcoin is what what would Nico always say the most equitable
- 1:04:31inclusive money in the world is? Because literally you could buy
- 1:04:34a dollar of it. You don't need that much money.
- 1:04:36It's literally permissionless. It's open to everyone.
- 1:04:39Anyone that buys some, it can be a part of the network.
- 1:04:42Anyone that buys some can, you know, buy a portion of the 21
- 1:04:47million Bitcoin pie. This is what I've been telling
- 1:04:51you guys that you need to own assets.
- 1:04:53This is what Nico was kind of trolling me the other day about
- 1:04:56where he was like Opti's basically just saying like F the
- 1:04:59middle class and you know, buy assets and and pump our, pump
- 1:05:03our bags and destroy the purchasing power.
- 1:05:05I'm like, no, I'm not cheering this on.
- 1:05:07I'm just telling you what they're saying they're going to
- 1:05:10do. And since I know most of the
- 1:05:12people that watch this show aren't the extremely high net
- 1:05:15worth like you don't I I'd be I'd be surprised if anyone that
- 1:05:20watched simply Bitcoin had a higher than a billion dollar net
- 1:05:24worth currently. Now I don't know if that's
- 1:05:26necessarily the case, but I'm guessing most of us we're just
- 1:05:30like average people trying to survive.
- 1:05:31Now, maybe there's a few of you guys.
- 1:05:33And if there is, you know, like, hey, I like I like my rich, my
- 1:05:36rich guys in the chat. You guys are Chad shouts out to
- 1:05:39you. But I'm guessing the majority of
- 1:05:42people are of just average means.
- 1:05:45And This is why I always come out and I and I kind of like
- 1:05:48just give you the playbook. What I think is going on, what I
- 1:05:50think you should be doing, which is obviously saving in Bitcoin.
- 1:05:53That's what you need to be doing.
- 1:05:54Everyone can do it. Now.
- 1:05:56I was just going to cover this yesterday and then I saw this
- 1:06:00tweet from Elon Musk and I'm like, I am going to combine
- 1:06:02these two because 1, the hypocrisy here from Elon Musk
- 1:06:07and just a straight stupidity here is just literally it's off
- 1:06:11the Richter charts right now. Guys.
- 1:06:13This is absolutely nuts. OK, so Elon Musk yesterday
- 1:06:17tweeted, you know, Ray Dalio tweeted something about the
- 1:06:20Trump's administration, you know, launching trading accounts
- 1:06:24for families and The Dells, you know, piling in with their, you
- 1:06:28know, philanthropic work, work, etcetera, etcetera.
- 1:06:30Like, who cares? Whatever, this is dumb, don't
- 1:06:33care. But Elon Musk responds, it is
- 1:06:38certainly a nice gesture of The Dells, but there will be no
- 1:06:41poverty in the future and so no need to save money.
- 1:06:44There will be a universal high income.
- 1:06:48OK. So the richest man in the world
- 1:06:51who just previously passed $600 billion is out here telling you,
- 1:06:56yeah, don't save any money. You don't need to save any
- 1:06:59money. Like you're there's going to be
- 1:07:01no poverty in the future because of AI and robots.
- 1:07:03You know, Hey, you're going to have universal high income.
- 1:07:06It's going to be great. Like, government's just going to
- 1:07:08give you money. Like we're all going to be rich.
- 1:07:10And he's oprahing out here money for you, money for you.
- 1:07:13It's like, OK, you have 600 billion.
- 1:07:16You get a money and you you get a money.
- 1:07:19The money's under your seat. Check the money.
- 1:07:22Bro, it is the dumbest thing I ever heard.
- 1:07:25The richest man in the world telling you don't save money is
- 1:07:30crazy. I know he probably doesn't save
- 1:07:32too much money because of, you know, all his assets and his
- 1:07:35stocks and equities are are why he's rich.
- 1:07:38So maybe that's the flip side of this coin.
- 1:07:41But he's out here to let me see what, 300, two, 130 million
- 1:07:46followers out there just selling them this, this ridiculous dream
- 1:07:52of hey, dude, don't save money, man.
- 1:07:55This is literally like this is Weimar level stuff.
- 1:07:59This is like the highest time preference thing I've ever heard
- 1:08:03in my life. It's like, hey, we're going to
- 1:08:05solve all the world. We're going into a utopia, man.
- 1:08:07Don't save any money. Are you like, are you kidding
- 1:08:11me? It's the it's insane.
- 1:08:14It's insane. Like it's, it's literally
- 1:08:18insane. It's literally insane.
- 1:08:21You won't. Need to save money 'cause we'll
- 1:08:23have universal basic income. They could literally do a South
- 1:08:27Park musical out of. This.
- 1:08:28No, we need a we need a What was that, America?
- 1:08:33Fuck yeah. America.
- 1:08:35Yeah, we need one of those. Oh, man.
- 1:08:38OK, let's see. Aren't.
- 1:08:40Are those the same people? I don't know, I think so think
- 1:08:43so dude. But bro, yes, this these silicon
- 1:08:48valleys I. Think it was I.
- 1:08:50Think God is. AI, I think since he he, he is
- 1:08:53now like, wealthier than Bezos, Bill Gates and like some other
- 1:08:59billionaire combined. You know?
- 1:09:02You know who's going to freak out about this, right?
- 1:09:05Yeah. Like, you know, who were the
- 1:09:06first people to scream and shout?
- 1:09:12The radical lefties. And So what is he saying?
- 1:09:16No, no, no, no, no. Everything's going to be fine.
- 1:09:19We're going to have universal basic income.
- 1:09:21Guys, just relax. Like every, all of your
- 1:09:23communist dreams will come true. So just wait.
- 1:09:27Socialism is almost here. Let me cook and we will make it
- 1:09:32happen. And it's it's.
- 1:09:34Crazy talk too. It's crazy talk.
- 1:09:36It's actually insane. Yeah, Caleb Hammer from
- 1:09:40Financial Audit replied to him saying saying, guys, please save
- 1:09:45your money. Yeah.
- 1:09:46Literally, please save your money.
- 1:09:48Don't know who needs to hear this, but please have savings
- 1:09:52and an emergency fund because this is a utopian dream that
- 1:09:58will never happen. Or perhaps nightmare depending
- 1:10:01on how you see it. So yeah, don't, don't, don't get
- 1:10:05it twisted. It's literally insane.
- 1:10:08Maybe maybe he does have a point.
- 1:10:09If he means like, you know, don't save in Fiat, you know,
- 1:10:14we'll be generous. Don't save in dollars, but you
- 1:10:17need to save money. You need to save in Bitcoin.
- 1:10:19You need to save in Bitcoin. I know what he said.
- 1:10:21I, I, I was just, you know, flipping it.
- 1:10:23Basic. No, you no universal high
- 1:10:26income, high high income. Is he going to pay for that?
- 1:10:32Like, are we getting some Elon stimi checks now?
- 1:10:35Is that what's going to happen? It's not I'm, I'm literally on
- 1:10:41the verge of completely crashing out on everyone right now
- 1:10:44because this is just like the the Dumber, the the dumbest
- 1:10:48takes are starting to come out from every angle right now.
- 1:10:52And I'm, I, I think I've had enough for 2025.
- 1:10:55I'm just like, all right, let's let's put this one on the shelf.
- 1:10:58You know, this is like Toy Story meme, like I'm done playing with
- 1:11:01this toy. You know, I'm going to go play
- 1:11:03with Buzz Lightyear. Like could, could we, could we
- 1:11:05just get into 2026 at this point?
- 1:11:08Because this year has been absolutely insane.
- 1:11:12So hey, there we go guys. I I made it through without
- 1:11:16actually losing the shit today but.
- 1:11:17Yeah, I was the one who lost it. Yeah, anyways, anyways guys, I
- 1:11:22was. I was looking forward to it.
- 1:11:23I was trying to like trigger you into into.
- 1:11:26Boys. Completely crashing out.
- 1:11:28Boys and girls, it's officially over.
- 1:11:34Not just the shell, but everything.
- 1:11:36Just stack them. Shats continue to accumulate
- 1:11:39Bitcoin. I guess we are really going into
- 1:11:42a fork world where it's those that have Bitcoin and then
- 1:11:46everyone else on universal high income, you know, debt slaves.
- 1:11:51It's surveilled by AI, digital Idi don't know.
- 1:11:54Pick your future, pick your poison.
- 1:11:56I think at the end of the day, politically, financially,
- 1:11:59spiritually, it is going to be a battle between those who seek
- 1:12:04the truth and those who want to believe the lies.
- 1:12:07And if you seek the truth, keep stacking Bitcoin, keep it in
- 1:12:10self custody, Don't give it to these monetary demons.
- 1:12:14And and yeah, and just always try to look for what's real
- 1:12:19because more and more increasingly the world is
- 1:12:23becoming super fake and. Yes, super.
- 1:12:30Fake. Super fake and period, period.
- 1:12:36All right, guys, all right, all right, all right, all right.
- 1:12:40It's officially over. And by that I mean the show.
- 1:12:43So I will be back tomorrow for my last.
- 1:12:47No, actually, no, no, because doesn't.
- 1:12:51Is it New Year's like on a Wednesday?
- 1:12:53I don't know. I think it's on a Wednesday.
- 1:12:55I don't know, Doug. We work.
- 1:12:57It, it, I think it's on a Wednesday.
- 1:12:58So I I'll be back in a week. Well, actually tomorrow's my
- 1:13:01last show and then I'm going to take a Christmas break.
- 1:13:04So you know, I'll see you guys in about a week from Monday.
- 1:13:11I'll be gone. I'm going to be gone all next
- 1:13:12week, Monday through Friday. So last show tomorrow for me and
- 1:13:18you guys, you guys can crash out on Nico and Sophie for Christmas
- 1:13:22week. And maybe I actually, I actually
- 1:13:24told Nico we should we should probably try to get Luke on.
- 1:13:27Yeah. He, he is, Full disclosure, he
- 1:13:31has been a little bearish guys, I, I, I know, disappointing, but
- 1:13:34he has been a little bearish. All right, anyways, on that
- 1:13:38note, peace out. I love you guys.
- 1:13:40I'm going to instead of go, instead of what I usually tell
- 1:13:43you to go outside, touch some grass.
- 1:13:47I'm going to go eat some ramen and cry myself to sleep in my
- 1:13:52bed today. I'm going to close all the
- 1:13:54blinds. I'm going to turn on Netflix.
- 1:13:57I'm going to be a useless eater on this day in 2025 S Peace out
- 1:14:05boys and girls. I'll see you tomorrow.
- 1:14:09It's been fun. I love you guys.
- 1:14:11I'll see you tomorrow. Today's episode was brought to
- 1:14:14you by bitcoinwell.com, a Bitcoin only platform on a
- 1:14:18mission to enable financial independence.