Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Worlds LARGEST EXCHANGE EXPOSES Secret Sovereign Bitcoin Buyers | EP 1230

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Worlds LARGEST EXCHANGE EXPOSES Secret Sovereign Bitcoin Buyers | EP 1230 · Simply Bitcoin

0:00
The world's largest exchange has just gone on the national news
0:04
and exposed some sovereign wealth funds who have been
0:07
secretly buying all of the Bitcoin in April.
0:10
Could they be the reason for the recent Bitcoin price pump?
0:14
But it's not just sovereign wealth funds.
0:17
Yesterday. AG 20 Central Bank has been
0:19
exposed for doubling down on micro strategy and buying
0:23
hundreds of millions of dollars worth of MSTR.
0:27
But before we get into all that, let's play you the clip as we
0:30
break it down live. So here's the clip.
0:32
And of course, I'm not alone. I got Luke with us today again.
0:36
So you already know it's going to get bullish.
0:38
And we got a very special guest, guys.
0:40
We have one of you guys from the chat, Chad Mercer, a long time
0:44
Bitcoiner. We have some interesting source
0:45
for you guys in the culture. This guy's been in Bitcoin since
0:47
2014. I think there's going to be a
0:49
lot of wisdom on today's show. All right, anyways, let's get
0:52
into the source material and we'll break down today's news
0:54
source. So as you can see here and for
0:56
the audio listeners, we got this clip coming out of CNBC Squawk
1:00
Box and it is Coinbase head of institutional trading.
1:03
Now before you throw tomatoes, I know a lot of us aren't biggest
1:07
fans of Coinbase, but there was some signal coming out of this
1:10
clip here. And as you can see from the
1:12
tweet, it basically says sovereign wealth funds and
1:14
institutions have been piling into Bitcoin in April while
1:18
retail has been selling. As we've been telling you guys
1:21
for a long time, it is not the time to be selling your Bitcoin.
1:25
If you're looking at any indicators, everyone is starting
1:28
to at the very least get some appetite for Bitcoin.
1:31
Now, the main point here is let's see the reasonings why
1:34
they're looking at Bitcoin. So we're going to play the clip
1:36
again. We're going to break it down
1:38
while we go live. So here we go.
1:40
The pools of capital that have been buying during April,
1:44
sovereign wealth funds, large institutional, long term
1:47
duration pools of capital, they're looking at it basically
1:50
three ways. One is if you think about the
1:54
tariff announcement April 2nd, if you believe that that's going
1:57
to have a spillover effect on global trade, you believe it's
2:00
going to be less global trade then much, much of which much of
2:04
which is denominated in the US dollars, then you think they'll
2:06
be less lower demand for U.S. dollars that we refer to as D
2:09
dollarization. Well, some of the ways Bitcoin
2:12
is used by these large pools of capital as they buy it in their
2:15
local Fiat currency, they hold it and they sell it into dollars
2:18
when they need it. Well, if you think dollar is
2:20
going to weaken, then you don't do that anymore and so you're
2:22
holding more Bitcoin and these get large insurance pools,
2:25
sovereigns, etcetera. So that's one thing is this D
2:28
dollarization trade? As you can hear guys, we've been
2:31
saying this on the show, I think since this whole trade war is
2:35
happening that you know there is a lot of things going on in the
2:38
macroeconomic landscape right now that a lot of people are
2:42
probably not seeing. If you're in the traditional
2:44
financial system and you're not looking at what's happening with
2:47
Bitcoin, you are probably unsure of what's happening.
2:50
And even some Bitcoiners, we're not really sure what's going on.
2:52
But we have been seeing a trend for the over a year now of this
2:57
idea of de dollarization. And depending on what camp you
3:00
are on in right now, you may be thinking that what the Trump or
3:04
best in administration is doing is they're trying to weaken the
3:07
dollar. And as you see, there is
3:09
economic war going on right now. So people are trying to find
3:13
some right positioning here. Where is the best place to store
3:16
your value? A lot of people are going into
3:18
gold. We're seeing a lot of people
3:19
drunk dump treasuries. And of course, as we saw at the
3:22
beginning of this week, we're seeing that the Bitcoin price is
3:25
running. And if the sovereign wealth
3:27
funds, the insurance capital, the institutional capital, even
3:30
nation states are looking at Bitcoin.
3:33
Look, I don't know about you guys, but I think this is more
3:35
signal to the idea that we keep telling you guys it is Bitcoin.
3:39
It is always Bitcoin and all roads lead to Bitcoin here.
3:41
Now, Luke, I do want to pass it on to you real quick on this
3:45
idea of de dollarization. How big of a signal do you think
3:49
this is for everyone across the board in Tradfly?
3:53
Yeah. So I think a lot of crazy
3:54
Bitcoin is for the past five, 10/15/16 years, in Chad's case,
3:59
12 years here, has been saying, look, every single nation state
4:04
is going to have to use Bitcoin eventually.
4:06
And we've all been, you know, told we're crazy for the past
4:09
five years, 10 years. And it's only really been in the
4:12
past 6 to 12, maybe 18 months. That what the crazy Bitcoiners
4:17
like myself and you know simply Bitcoin have been saying for so
4:20
long is slowly becoming true. America is created a strategic
4:25
Bitcoin reserve. We now have China and Russia,
4:29
two of the world's largest superpowers in the world's
4:31
literally being exposed by a multi trillion dollar firm for
4:36
trading in Bitcoin. And we have so many other nation
4:39
states all around the world who is mining Bitcoin and relying on
4:43
Bitcoin as this strategic treasury asset.
4:46
So I just think it's inevitable that this trend continues.
4:50
And I think we're kind of at the exponential phase of adoption.
4:53
So to say now that America has kind of, I need to be really
4:57
careful what I say. But let's say they've put their
4:59
card on the table, that's what they've slapped onto the table.
5:03
They've said, look at my hand. I have a really great, you know,
5:06
set of cards. So to say, all of the other
5:09
nation states are going to be forced to FOMO and kind of match
5:13
the girthy set of cards that America has slapped onto the
5:17
table. So I think we're really going to
5:20
see things accelerate here. OK, Luke, this is a family
5:23
friendly show here. All right, all right, all right,
5:26
let's play this clip a little more and let's see what the
5:27
other two reasons are. The second piece is that post
5:30
COVID Bitcoin got, it got kind of got caught up in this levered
5:33
tech trade, kind of just bundled into the QQQ, bundled into
5:36
NVIDIA. It's not really a tech stock,
5:39
but it kind of got associated with tech stocks.
5:40
Was it I? I.
5:41
Always thought that the issue was that there were retail
5:44
investors who were taking their winnings in some cases from an
5:49
NVIDIA or a Apple or whatever one of the Max 7.
5:53
And and then moving it into Bitcoin and therefore then it
5:56
was all tracking because to the extent that then they had to
5:58
ever they owned that other stuff too, right whenever went down,
6:01
they had to sell out of stuff they also were selling out of
6:03
Bitcoin. During the bubbly periods in
6:05
Texas, that's not an unfair assumption, but I'll note one
6:07
thing. So for the month of April, as
6:09
you would expect, gold ETF inflows were massive, 8 1/2
6:12
billion roughly from the second to through the 21st, 22nd.
6:16
It might surprise you to learn that Bitcoin ETF flows were net
6:18
negative to the tune of about 470 million.
6:21
So the opposite of that was occurring.
6:23
So institutions, sovereigns, patient pools of capital were
6:26
piling in during April, which which resulted in about a 13%
6:30
increase in Bitcoin versus 10 1/2 for gold and retail via the
6:34
ETF were exiting. So you got kind of asked
6:37
yourself, what do the institutions know?
6:39
Buying Bitcoin direct and how many of them are now buying via
6:45
ETFs or other forms? Well, hard to say they don't.
6:48
Especially the sovereign wealth funds don't report, right?
6:50
No, but you're. Also, I imagine seeing the ETFs
6:52
buying because the ETF should be buying on.
6:54
In the last couple of days. But the ETF should be buying on
6:56
a relative basis on behalf of their customer base.
6:59
Right, assuming there were inflows, right, But the last
7:01
couple last couple days, yes, we've had, but still as of
7:03
yesterday could change today we've had net negative ETF
7:07
inflows. So this so the first reason is
7:10
the dollarization. The second reason is this tech
7:12
unwinding of this big levered tech trade and Bitcoin trading
7:16
on its core characteristics, which again are similar to gold,
7:18
you've got scarcity, immutability, non sovereign
7:21
asset portability. So trading the way people who
7:25
believe in Bitcoin would like it to trade.
7:28
Interesting, interesting take here.
7:29
Now I might have to pass this over to Luke because he's a
7:32
little more of the expert on the ETF inflow stuff, but the point
7:35
remains the same. And something we've been saying
7:37
and now we're getting more and more evidence about this is
7:39
that, hey, look, as we see retail might be getting scared
7:43
out of the market because the price is going sideways, it's
7:45
going down. People are, you know, getting
7:47
impatient. They're wondering what is going
7:49
on with this Bitcoin thing. I thought it was going to go up
7:52
to, you know, $100,000 one day in a candle and they're selling
7:58
out. And we're seeing that
7:58
institutions are taking the opposite bet.
8:01
We've been kind of covering this a few times on the show in the
8:04
past recent weeks is like, hey, when we see the Bitcoin price
8:07
dip, who is buying the Bitcoin? I think I did that on
8:09
yesterday's show. We're saying Black Rock,
8:11
Fidelity, Arc, etcetera. They're the ones buying the
8:14
Bitcoin. And hey, I hate to use the term
8:17
smart money, but if you aren't following the money here, guys,
8:20
you might not be seeing what is going on.
8:23
And people are starting to get that Bitcoin exposure.
8:25
So Luke, could you break down this net negative inflow ETF
8:29
talk for the layman out here, for the 45 IQ bitcoiner like
8:32
myself? What?
8:33
What exactly is he saying here? We've gone from 80 IQ to 45 IQ
8:38
IR we're. Going to lower the.
8:39
Expectations here, that's right. We got to try to let it run in.
8:44
So yeah, I think ETF flows, you know, they ebb and flow.
8:47
So to say, no pilot intended. When the price is going up, we
8:51
naturally see a large increase in the amount of people who are
8:54
interested by the ETFs. They want to put that in their
8:57
portfolio. And naturally when the price
8:59
turns down, you do see a little bit of cell pressure out of the
9:03
ETFs. I've been pleasantly surprised
9:05
at how that is. I think over the most recent
9:08
correction we had, we saw like a 30% correction, but like 1 to 2%
9:13
of the total funds in the ETF left the ETF.
9:16
So it's really not that much of A drawdown at all.
9:19
I think this week though, more recently with the price pump,
9:22
bitcoins kind of recovered from 75 K to nearly 95 K right now.
9:27
So we've got a nice little move here and I think I've seen
9:30
something like 1.61 point $7 billion of inflows this this
9:36
week alone. So somewhere around 15,000
9:39
Bitcoin have been scooped up by the ETFs just this week, which
9:44
is it's it's 15,000. That can't be right.
9:48
Maybe it's 1500. Anyway, what has happened this
9:51
week is that the ETFs have bought pretty much all of the
9:54
Bitcoin that's been mined. OK, So we know that about 450
9:57
Bitcoin are mined every day and the ETFs are buying all of that
10:02
alone. And again, we're not even
10:03
talking about the other large entities buying Bitcoin when
10:07
we're talking about all this supply being eaten up by the
10:10
whales. Earlier in the week we did a
10:12
live stream talking about how whales this year have bought
10:15
300% of the new supply. Yesterday, Opti gave you guys a
10:20
video showing that a brand, brand new company headed up by
10:24
Jack Mallers and Howard Lutnick titled 21 that just come out
10:30
with a 42,000 1000 Bitcoin stack to begin things.
10:33
So again, I think this supply suffocation that we've seen the
10:37
ETFs is just one small contributor to what I think is
10:41
potentially the most underrated thing happening in Bitcoin right
10:45
now. And that is that quiet sucking
10:48
sound of that water leaving the bathtub.
10:51
And I think as the water in that bathtub gets lower and lower,
10:55
and as the Bitcoin on exchanges gets lower and lower, that
10:58
sucking sound, it's going to become louder and louder.
11:01
And I think we're going to start to see a little bit of a mad
11:04
scramble for Bitcoin here. Hey yo, Luke chill for real on
11:08
the show he did talk about breaking away from tech stocks
11:14
and and now I have a clip of Jack Mahler's kind of talking
11:17
about this. So we'll skirt that for the next
11:19
segment and then I'm going to play it really quick.
11:20
Let's get to the third reason here and then we'll bring up
11:23
Chad and we'll have a full conversation about what we heard
11:26
right here the. Last was to me the most
11:28
interesting, which is spoke to a couple of traders who said,
11:31
look, if you, if you believe these conditions, these de
11:33
dollarization conditions are going to persist, you're looking
11:37
at gold obviously first and foremost, but maybe you missed
11:39
out on that trade. You're looking at that rally and
11:41
saying I, I missed the, I missed the boat on that.
11:44
So what other assets could participate in that market
11:47
panic, long term inflation hedge?
11:49
When you do the work, there's a very short list of assets that
11:53
mirror the characteristics of gold.
11:55
Bitcoin is on that short list. In addition to the four
11:57
characteristics I mentioned. It's mining scarcity.
12:00
It's mining difficulty gets harder overtime.
12:03
Yeah. And you can add two or three
12:04
more good things about Bitcoin that you didn't even mention.
12:08
So I mean, maybe it never is used to wire money or whatever
12:13
you want to call it over to to the Far East or something, but
12:16
you certainly can do it instantaneously frictionless.
12:19
Right. And you could do it overnight
12:20
and you don't have to in gold. I mean you bet it's heavy.
12:23
You better store it, you better insure it.
12:25
I mean there's a lot of things portability is under looked at.
12:29
It's under emphasized skill asset.
12:33
It's very, very hard to transport lots of large amounts
12:35
of cash. It's very, very hard to
12:37
transport large amounts of gold. Anyways, you guys get the
12:40
picture, you guys get get the the gist here.
12:43
As we've been saying for a long time, if you put all of these
12:46
concerns on, you know, an Excel spreadsheet and you look at the
12:50
difference between gold and Bitcoin or any other store of
12:53
value, it becomes very clear right off the bat that Bitcoin
12:57
is fundamentally different because of all the principles,
12:59
fundamentals of Bitcoin that we constantly talk about here.
13:01
And the one they're really talking about is portability.
13:04
And as we know, Bitcoin is the most liquid asset, the most
13:07
liquid network. It's open 24 hours a day, 365
13:11
days out of the year, open at all times.
13:14
And I forget what the metric is in regards to the stock market
13:17
when their time is open. And Bitcoin is, you know, based
13:21
in comparison already been open longer than the stock market has
13:25
been and it's been around for 100 years plus.
13:27
And so people are starting to understand the very basics of
13:31
Bitcoin and that message is spreading.
13:33
So I think we can kind of agree or confirm this idea that the
13:38
signal is spreading and more people are waking up to what
13:41
Bitcoin is and, and it's becoming very hard to ignore it,
13:44
especially in the face of all the economic headwinds we're
13:47
seeing right now. Bitcoin is clearly the winner
13:50
and you should be having some Bitcoin at this point, but it
13:53
takes a while for these Titanics to turn around.
13:55
But you're seeing that it's happening very slowly.
13:57
So on that note, I'm going to pass it over to Chad.
14:00
Chad, you've been in Bitcoin for a long time.
14:02
What's your thoughts hearing this?
14:03
Are you surprised by this? Are you surprised sovereign
14:06
wealth funds are getting in Bitcoin?
14:07
You know what's your take away from that clip?
14:10
Am I surprised? Absolutely not.
14:12
This is one of those things that I think is very important for
14:14
people to understand and that clip is just got so much stuff
14:18
in it. The the part where the Coinbase
14:20
guy was talking about portability in reference to gold
14:23
in the original. I do appreciate that they
14:25
corrected that discussion because it isn't it isn't nearly
14:29
as portable as Bitcoin and it's not on 24/7 and all those kinds
14:32
of things. The thing to note though, is
14:34
that all these discussions about sovereign wealth funds and the
14:38
the movement they're in understand that these are these
14:41
are organizations that cannot turn quickly.
14:44
When something happens, you're going to take it's going to take
14:46
a long time for that. Like you, you said the Titanic,
14:49
it takes a long time for every one of those organizations to
14:52
turn around. So when you talk about these big
14:54
companies, especially like the 21 capital that came out
14:56
yesterday, which I'm very excited about by the way, when
14:59
that happens, that's not something where they're going to
15:01
be able to liquidate all of that Bitcoin.
15:03
So like we've been talking about, Luke was mentioning the
15:05
buying all the mine Bitcoin. There's a reason that other
15:09
large corporations and nation states are mining Bitcoin
15:13
because that is going to be one of the only ways you're going to
15:16
even be able to get Bitcoin. So this whole idea of the D
15:19
dollarization, I mean, we can talk about all the different
15:22
things like how bitcoins being bought nationwide.
15:25
You can't invest in, you know, American stocks when you're in
15:29
some countries, right, some some non-us countries, right?
15:32
So all the money is just going to end up getting funneled into
15:35
Bitcoin. This D dollarization thing is
15:37
going to be massive and you better you better get on the
15:41
boat because you don't want to not be there.
15:45
Yeah, 100% couldn't agree more. I, I think we're seeing more
15:48
signal of that, that being the case.
15:49
Anyways, Luke, what's your thoughts on the overall clip
15:52
here and the chat saying that sounds a little buggy.
15:55
Let let me know. Let me know if I can figure it
15:57
out. Anyways, go Luke.
16:00
Yeah. So I think Luke, the signal
16:03
here, the world's largest exchange, Coinbase coming out
16:07
and saying the quiet parts out loud, confirming again a lot of
16:12
the things that the Bitcoin only created, I mean speculating
16:16
about sovereign wealth funds are quietly buying Bitcoin.
16:20
I think this is again just another huge piece of signal not
16:23
a lot of people are paying attention to.
16:25
Again, we do know publicly that's some really large
16:28
sovereign wealth funds out of the Middle East.
16:30
For example, the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth funds bought
16:32
450 odd $1,000,000 worth of Bitcoin.
16:36
We know that pension funds are really interested in Bitcoin.
16:40
Even we've we know we're about to review central banks, Oregon
16:44
even printing money to buy shares of micro strategy while
16:49
they're simultaneously saying, yeah, Bitcoin, we don't want
16:52
that in our reserves. That's what they're saying
16:54
publicly, but privately they're firing up the money printers and
16:58
buying micro strategy shares. So I think this is just another
17:01
big signal that one of the largest markets in the world,
17:05
sovereign wealth fund market, is slowly but surely doing a lot
17:08
more than just dipping their toe in the water.
17:10
They're going all in. They're slowly but surely adding
17:14
a lot of Bitcoin to the balance sheets.
17:16
And I don't think it's any coincidence that Donald Trump
17:19
now wants to create a sovereign wealth fund for America.
17:23
So firstly, a couple of assumptions here.
17:25
Do we really think Bitcoin is not going to be in this
17:28
sovereign wealth fund? I think that would be ludicrous.
17:31
That would be an absurd assumption.
17:33
The second little interesting tidbit about this is it's
17:36
probably going to be a big one. Do we really think that Donald
17:38
Trump is just going to create an average size sovereign wealth
17:41
fund? No.
17:42
He wants to make America great again.
17:44
He wants to create the biggest sovereign wealth fund.
17:46
So we know that the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund is
17:49
something like $1.7 trillion. So I think America is going to
17:54
want to create at least a true trillion dollar sovereign wealth
17:56
fund. I'd be hard pressed to think
17:59
that, you know, they're not gonna take at least a 1-2, maybe
18:03
5% allocation of Bitcoin. So yeah, I mean, stay tuned.
18:07
I think the sovereign wealth funds, they kind of are the 900
18:11
LB elephant in the room that not enough people are paying
18:16
attention to. Yeah, totally.
18:17
And Luke, great segue. So let's just bring that up real
18:20
quick. Here is the second news story,
18:22
guys. So Swiss National Bank acquires
18:24
MSTR for Bitcoin exposure. Now you may be thinking this is
18:28
an old news story. We did cover this when it came
18:30
out. They did stack some MSTR, but
18:33
now they doubled down. And if you look at this chart,
18:35
it is absolutely insane. And here we go from coin Bureau
18:39
goes just in Swiss National Bank reportedly buying micro strategy
18:42
MSTR shares gaining indirect Bitcoin exposure.
18:46
Switzerland moves fuel crypto optimism, highlighting
18:49
institutional trust in digital assets.
18:51
Look at this chart, guys, historical MSTR position of
18:54
Swiss National Bank. You know, they had some
18:56
exposure. You know, they, they, they had,
18:59
they were, they were getting their toes dipped in they were
19:01
trying to get some indirect Bitcoin exposure, But it looks
19:05
like they are doubling down now. Of course, probably right now
19:09
it's not socially acceptable for a National Bank to fully acquire
19:12
Bitcoin. And we do have a story here from
19:15
just a month ago March 20 for 2025 Swiss National Bank says no
19:19
to Bitcoin reserves and no plans to buy crypto assets.
19:23
Well, it looks like they aren't going to buy Bitcoin directly
19:26
spot Bitcoin, but they they bought hundreds of millions of
19:30
dollars of MSTR and there is one good quote here from this
19:35
article and it's basically this for investors.
19:38
The Swiss national banks move highlights the increasing
19:40
legitimacy of Bitcoin and other digital assets in mainstream
19:43
finance. And for some institutions,
19:45
investing in companies with large Bitcoin holdings offers a
19:48
viable alternative to direct crypto exposure.
19:51
So obviously as bitcoiners we're like, man, one day they're going
19:55
to turn on the money printer to buy Bitcoin directly, but we're
19:58
just not there yet. You know, they're they're making
20:00
it seem like a, a basically a viable alternative.
20:05
They'll just like, hey, look, we don't like this Bitcoin thing,
20:07
but we like this company that all they do is buy Bitcoin.
20:10
So I don't know. I think that's a tacit, you
20:13
know, confirmation and agreement that this Bitcoin thing isn't
20:16
going away and everyone. And want some kind of Bitcoin
20:18
exposure. So I found that very
20:20
interesting. We have not gotten to the point
20:22
where central banks are buying Bitcoin, but they're buying
20:26
Bitcoin company stocks. So I don't know.
20:28
I think that's more signal to everything we're saying.
20:30
And if you really consider what Jack Muller's and Tether and
20:34
Cantor Fitzgerald and SoftBank did yesterday with announcing a
20:38
micro strategy copycat becoming very clear, Bitcoin is here.
20:43
We're entering a new paradigm. I know, I know, I was getting
20:46
trolled the other day. It's like this time is
20:47
different, guys. This time is different.
20:50
We have fundamentally entered literally this is like the this
20:53
starting to feel like the Trojan horse for Wall Street here where
20:57
I know we've been talking about for a while, like Wall Street is
20:59
coming to Bitcoin. But I don't know if you guys saw
21:02
Jack Muller's announcement of 21 and he said something very
21:06
interesting. It's not that Wall Street has
21:08
entered Bitcoin. It's now Bitcoin has entered
21:10
Wall Street and I don't think we can fully calculate the
21:14
ramifications of what this means.
21:16
I think it's very interesting to see that with this new company
21:19
21, we are seeing that Jack Mahler's and other Bitcoin
21:23
companies, we're creating a whole new market and this is the
21:25
beginning of that. And you know, there's been some
21:28
backlash with Mahler teaming up with Tether on Twitter, but I
21:32
think this might be one of those big, really big moments that we
21:37
can look back and be like, it was so obvious when 21 came out.
21:40
This was like the most obvious play ever.
21:42
And now we're seeing Bitcoin is fully entrenched in Wall Street
21:45
and this is the Trojan horse. There's no going back from here.
21:49
I think everyone is going to very quickly find out why
21:52
Bitcoin is disappear asset, why it's the perfect collateral, why
21:55
it's perfect money, etcetera, etcetera.
21:57
Anyways, I've been ran ranching along.
21:58
So Luke, you want to chime in here?
22:00
I'll put we'll bring Chad out real quick and then we'll get
22:02
into the rest of the show. Yeah.
22:04
So, I mean, how absurd is it that the head of the Central
22:08
Bank of Switzerland in March comes out and says, yeah, we
22:13
don't want to put Bitcoin in our reserves.
22:14
No, we don't want it. And then quietly, we find out,
22:19
because they have to declare what they're holding through
22:22
these SEC filings, that they've just increased their Bitcoin
22:26
holdings exponentially by hundreds of millions of dollars.
22:30
I mean, just think about how absurd that is and whether you
22:33
can really trust anything that any central banker says.
22:37
Who actually trusts Christine Lagarde when she says, oh, our
22:41
digital central bank digital currency slavery token is the
22:45
future. It's launching in October 2025.
22:48
And she's saying, yeah, I don't have any Bitcoin.
22:50
We're not interested in Bitcoin. Can we really believe these
22:53
people anymore or are they all just quietly buying Bitcoin?
22:58
I think they are all quietly buying Bitcoin.
23:01
I've been screaming from the rooftop saying they have been
23:03
buying Bitcoin since 2020 and I think the fact that exchanges
23:07
holdings of Bitcoin is dropping like a rock right now.
23:12
I think that's the real signal. I've again, I'm a what are they
23:17
saying? I sound like I'm flogging a dead
23:20
horse. Is that correct?
23:20
I don't even know if I'm allowed to say that or.
23:22
Yeah, I think you are. Metaphorically again.
23:25
Metaphorically. Again, let's emphasize that
23:27
metaphorically, but I keep doubling looking down on this
23:31
point that look, everything is noise.
23:33
Just look at the Bitcoin on exchanges, the price, it's
23:37
noise, OK? It's an absolute.
23:39
It's really disconnected from the fundamentals.
23:41
Just look at what's going on with the Bitcoin on exchanges.
23:44
Bitcoin's a transparent Ledger. I think that's the biggest
23:47
signal, and the biggest signal is screaming.
23:49
Something changed in 2021 million Bitcoin has disappeared
23:52
off the exchanges since 2020. Around 900,000 Bitcoin have left
23:57
the exchanges in the past two years.
23:59
If this trend continues, we're going to be seeing some really
24:01
interesting things in regards to a supply suffocation in the next
24:05
year or two. So I think that should be the
24:08
signal here. And again, just ignore what
24:10
these politicians, bureaucrats and central bankers are saying
24:14
because as Larry think has proved to us, they're all wrong
24:17
and they will all eventually bend the knee to Bitcoin, even
24:21
if they call it an index of money laundering and if they say
24:24
we see no demand from our clients for Bitcoin.
24:27
And then a year later, they launched the biggest and most
24:30
successful Bitcoin ETF in history.
24:32
Thank you, BlackRock. Thank you for once again
24:34
confirming that the Bitcoin is a right. 100% and it really does
24:39
feel like the stars have aligned for Bitcoin.
24:42
I know like last week we were sitting here and we're like man,
24:45
can the price start to do something?
24:47
And literally in one week we're all like 180 sentiment like
24:51
actually guys, $1,000,000 per Bitcoin doesn't sound that
24:54
crazy. And I do have Adam Backlip for
24:56
the news for you guys. What we'll we'll talk about that
24:58
a little bit, but Chad jump in here real quick, quick before we
25:00
move on to the next segment. Sure.
25:02
I, I mean, I can't hardly beat what Luke was talking about
25:05
that. I mean, he's 100% right.
25:06
You cannot pay attention to what they say.
25:08
You have to pay attention to what they do.
25:10
These people have, they don't care about you.
25:14
That's the nicest way to say it. I'm going to not get in trouble
25:17
with the algorithm by saying bad things, but but when you start
25:21
looking at exactly what's going on in the in the in the
25:23
situation, you know, that's a perfect example.
25:26
You got the exponential. That exponential is proof
25:29
positive that these people are, somebody said in the chat,
25:33
lying, liars. And that lie, yes, 100 percent,
25:36
100%. Yeah, that's, that's totally, as
25:39
the heuristic always goes, you know, don't listen to what they
25:43
say, watch what they do. And and, you know, politicians
25:46
and even even Wall Street, these big, you know, leads of these
25:50
institutional financial capital markets, their, their, their
25:55
main priority is misdirection. And so they'll say something and
25:58
in the back end, they'll do the opposite.
26:00
Like I've been saying for a while, a lot of Bitcoiners have
26:02
been saying that like Jamie Dimon doesn't understand Bitcoin
26:05
and you know, it like it's his job to not understand it.
26:08
I've been taking the opposite route.
26:09
Like I think he fully understands this, but publicly
26:12
he has to say something different.
26:14
And we even saw it like J Powell bend the knee on this last year,
26:17
the couple years ago, every time we talked about Bitcoin, he said
26:21
one thing. And then literally right when
26:23
the Trump administration came in, he's like, actually, you
26:25
know, like the banks that are a part of the Federal Reserve,
26:28
they, they can totally custody Bitcoin.
26:30
We just got to make sure it's in a Safeway.
26:32
So you can see that publicly. They say one thing and on the
26:35
back end, everyone is scrambling for a position either in Bitcoin
26:39
or around Bitcoin. As we're seeing with the Cantor
26:41
Fitzgerald news. It's, I think this is one of the
26:43
big signals of what's going on. Even though Howard Leutnik has
26:46
been very bullish on Bitcoin, he's like every time he dips,
26:49
I'm going to buy $100 million of Bitcoin.
26:50
But again, don't listen to what they say.
26:52
Watch what they do. And we're starting to see all
26:55
the stars align. So guys, I'm, I'm starting to
26:57
get the tingle. Yeah, jump in, Chad.
26:58
I was just going to say one of the things I didn't want to, I
27:00
didn't want to mention that Luke, Luke had talked about the
27:02
transparency of the Ledger and that that is the thing that that
27:05
Bitcoin, I mean, is superior to all the rest of the options,
27:09
right? I think it's very important that
27:11
we as Bitcoiners support companies that are willing to do
27:14
proof of reserves like El Salvador is doing.
27:17
And like a number of other companies, River's one that I
27:20
frequent myself because they do proof of reserves, that that to
27:24
me is critical because of the potential of paper Bitcoin.
27:27
There's tons of, I mean proof positive in recent history that,
27:31
you know, we can be, we can be fooled buy paper Bitcoin.
27:36
And I think personally that that's where a lot of the, the
27:38
lack of price movement is coming from is the possibility that a
27:41
lot of these Yahoo's are also lying to us in different ways
27:45
and manipulating the price of it with some paper Bitcoin.
27:48
So I I think that that proof of reserves is incredibly
27:50
important. Totally agree.
27:52
Couldn't agree more. We've been talking about that
27:53
constantly on the show. All right guys, before we get to
27:56
the rest of the show, I do want to remind you guys to smash the
27:59
like button, hit the subscriber button and of course, comment on
28:02
the video. Let us know what you think.
28:03
Let's try to get to a goal of 250 likes.
28:06
We're already at 150 likes currently.
28:09
And of course, before we go further, let's plug our boys
28:12
over at Bitcoin. Well, this is the best place to
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28:50
All right guys, so we have a jam packed show.
28:52
We are going to cover this clip of Jack Mahler's.
28:55
It's Not About the 21 announcement, but he is talking
28:58
about something we've been saying on the show for a minute.
29:00
Seems like we are decoupling from stocks.
29:02
Obviously it's still early. And then in the news, we got a
29:06
clip of Adam back, legendary Adam back.
29:08
And he's kind of breaking down or really, really hitting hard
29:12
against the critics of diminishing returns.
29:14
I, I'm a huge fan of breaking down that that narrative here.
29:18
And then in the end culture with Chad, he's a long time Baker.
29:21
We got some interesting stories for you guys.
29:23
So on that note, let's just get into the show.
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31:25
All right guys, we're over here on Clark Moody's dashboard
31:27
reading the Bitcoin numbers. As you can see the current
31:30
Bitcoin price, it is $93,430 per Bitcoin.
31:34
Which means the stats per dollar, AKA how much Bitcoin you
31:37
can buy for a single dollar, AKA how much the dollar is worth in
31:39
Bitcoin, is currently at 1070 stats per dollar.
31:43
We're inching down under 1000 stats.
31:45
I love when we get under 1000 stats.
31:47
Anyways, the block height is 893,788.
31:51
The market cap in Fiat terms is $1.86 trillion.
31:55
Actually, Luke, can you look at the market caps today, global
31:58
market caps behind the scenes, maybe, maybe we can pull that
32:01
out if anything's changed. Anyways, the Bitcoin versus gold
32:03
market cap is currently at 7.94%, almost at 8% of the gold
32:07
market cap. We're, we're going to get way
32:09
higher soon, guys. And the total percentage of
32:10
Bitcoin that will ever be issued is 94.55%.
32:13
Again, roughly 19.855 million Bitcoin in circulation.
32:18
And the realized monetary inflation, literally the hardest
32:20
money, the soundest money, the perfect money is currently at
32:23
.84%. Taking Fiat currencies to school
32:27
does. Did we pull it up?
32:28
Do you, do you have this? Did, did it move?
32:30
Did it move on us? Did did we pump back above
32:32
Google and Amazon or did it pump yesterday?
32:35
Let's show you the guys I got to pull.
32:38
It up, We'll pull it up okay well can you zoom in a little
32:42
bit? It looks like the stock market
32:44
pumped a little bit, so we're still at the 88 position, but it
32:48
looks like once we get frothy guys, we're gonna jump Amazon,
32:52
Google and silver very cleanly. So that's exciting to see Very
32:57
exciting. All right, guys, let's play you
32:59
this clip, though. So again, this this idea of
33:03
Bitcoin separating from tech stocks or the decoupling meme
33:08
yes, I think we are a little premature on this.
33:11
A lot of us bitcoiners got really excited during the trade
33:13
war because Bitcoin kind of was, you know, it didn't dump too
33:16
much yes, there still is some correlation in the markets right
33:19
now. I think I saw yesterday NASDAQ
33:22
dropped about like 14% and Bitcoin drop or sorry, NASDAQ
33:27
QQQ drop 11% and Bitcoin dropped 14%.
33:31
So there's still some correlation.
33:33
But as you can see, we're starting to see this decoupling
33:36
play out in real time as NASDAQ and stock markets and equities
33:40
kind of dump and Bitcoin pumps in the face of this.
33:43
And, and Jack Mahler's I think is, is of course ahead of the
33:48
ahead of the pack here. And this clip here I think is,
33:51
is explaining what's going to happen in the future.
33:53
And are we in this moment? We'll, we'll only be able to
33:56
tell in hindsight, but it does seem like this is upon us.
33:59
So let's play this clip for you guys and then we'll kind of chat
34:01
about it. When I pulled this up and I saw
34:04
Bitcoin had just went from a near 1 correlation and it's now
34:08
down to a 0.53. My eyes are glued to this thing
34:13
now. Is Bitcoin going to continue to
34:16
fall, go below .5 and head towards 0 again?
34:20
Because what is that telling us? To me, that tells me that
34:24
Bitcoin smells blood. It smells the money printer
34:28
somehow. It's reading the Financial
34:30
Times, it's reading Bloomberg, it's reading The Economist, and
34:33
it's seeing Fiat liquidity is around the corner.
34:37
Currency units are about to be abundant.
34:40
They have to print the money. Now, guys, being more practical,
34:43
Bitcoin can't read an article, right?
34:44
It's a protocol. It's bytes of data.
34:46
But more practically, if they start making monetary conditions
34:51
easier, if there is more Fiat sloshing around the market
34:54
that's most sensitive to that, the markets that's going to move
34:57
first and perform the. Best.
34:58
Is Bitcoin because it's the most free market and it's the most
35:02
fixed market? That's it, Period.
35:04
End of conversation, no debate. So when I saw Bitcoin start to
35:08
de correlate and it went from A1 to a .53 and I made this chart,
35:13
I was like, Oh my goodness, Bitcoins not necessarily
35:17
correlated to the stock market or not correlated to the stock
35:19
market. It's both.
35:21
And it chooses its times to de correlate and lead when massive
35:25
world events are happening. And it affirms my suspicion in
35:29
my predictions. This is slight validation.
35:32
We're not there yet, but it's very slight validation that
35:34
Bitcoin will decouple this year. It will lead the stock market
35:38
up. It smells the money printer.
35:44
Let's go. We are going higher.
35:47
Look, I, I think we've all been talking about this.
35:50
I know it kind of made the waves ever since everyone, and we're
35:53
going to talk about this in, in the news as well.
35:55
Everyone ever since a lot of people are kind of looking at
35:59
Bitcoin cycles and we're all wondering like, is cycle theory
36:02
dead? And then I think it was Lynn
36:03
Alden who first came out. She's like, I think what we need
36:06
to be looking at is global liquidity cycles.
36:09
I think all of us Bitcoiners have kind of refocused our, you
36:12
know, our point of view and we're like, oh, OK, this starts
36:15
to make a lot more sense in the face of everything we are
36:18
seeing. And I think Jack Mullers is
36:20
right. Obviously he's he's using like a
36:22
metaphor here. It's like, you know, Bitcoin
36:24
reads all of the news sources and it knows what's coming.
36:27
But we are seeing very clearly Bitcoin does sniff out that the
36:31
money printer is coming. It does react to liquidity, more
36:34
global liquidity, as Mullers was saying, more Fiat dollars in the
36:38
system sloshing around to find a home eventually end up in
36:42
Bitcoin. And as you're seeing, we, I
36:44
think we have a bunch of data points and confirmation to this
36:48
that Bitcoin does lead all global market scenarios here.
36:52
Whether we see, you know, a crash, Bitcoin will obviously
36:55
move first. Whether we see more global
36:58
liquidity come into the system, Bitcoin will lead to the upside.
37:01
And I think we're seeing this play out in real time.
37:04
Obviously, as I say, looking at the Bitcoin price, it's like a
37:07
real time metric of what people believe in, in the economy.
37:11
And so it's the aggregate collective of every one of us
37:15
making decisions that show what is going on.
37:18
And it's the real time metric. It's the only real data we have
37:21
here is the Bitcoin price. And I just love this that
37:25
Mahler's is able to basically break down all of this complex,
37:29
you know, economic jargon into one simple chart.
37:32
And he's like, look, we all know what's going to happen.
37:34
They're going to turn on the money printer.
37:36
This is going to end up in Bitcoin.
37:37
And the only metric you really need to watch is what happens in
37:41
the Bitcoin price or the Bitcoin industry, the Bitcoin network.
37:45
This is the only data point you need to look at.
37:48
And I think now we're seeing more people are starting to get
37:51
that message. At one point, probably this
37:54
year, we're starting to see it. Bitcoin will decouple from big
37:57
tech, from NASDAQ, from equities, and it's going to
38:00
start ripping. I know a lot of people been
38:02
saying that, hey, you know, gold's starting to RIP and
38:05
Bitcoin's going to lag gold, but but Bitcoin's going to go higher
38:08
than gold. I think I agree with Mahler's
38:11
where we're not seeing it yet, but we are seeing indicators of
38:15
this being the case. And like I told Luke yesterday,
38:19
if we see Bitcoin run, I think it is a big, big signal.
38:25
It is, you know, a blazing fire. And the smoke is telling people,
38:29
hey, this Bitcoin thing is telling us what's going to
38:32
happen in the global macro markets.
38:34
Why we have Jerome Powell and the Fed and all these central
38:37
bankers trying to manipulate variables to ensure that Fiat
38:41
currencies don't die. And we're just like, just watch
38:43
Bitcoin. All you have to do is simplify
38:45
things and watch Bitcoin. Anyways, I will pass it over to
38:48
Chad. Chad, what's your thoughts on
38:49
this? You've been in Bitcoin for a
38:50
long time. Do you think Jack Mueller's,
38:52
which is right here or also actually maybe I'll, I'll leave
38:54
the cycle question for the next time.
38:56
And what do you think on Jack Mahler's little click right
38:58
there? Jack Mahler's is amazing.
39:00
I just you, everybody's talking about how they're excited about
39:03
the price going up. My strike direct deposit got me
39:07
less sats this week. So I was not happy about that.
39:10
I'd prefer the price to stay down for a while so I can get
39:13
more. No, Mahler's is amazing.
39:16
And, and when you talk about the decoupling, the one thing that I
39:18
think is interesting and, and maybe I'm a crazy person, but I
39:21
think that you have two completely different sides of
39:24
the coin. You have the gold people, the
39:26
people that understand sound money and all that kind of
39:28
stuff, the people that Austrian economics and human action by my
39:31
sees and all this kind of stuff, right.
39:33
Then you got the tech folks that understand technology, that
39:36
understand like how the Internet literally changed the world.
39:39
Hey, can we invest in something else?
39:42
These are both parties are, are interested in Bitcoin at this
39:46
point, people that don't understand the tech, but they
39:49
understand sound money, they're buying the people that
39:51
understand tech and have no idea about sound money, they're like,
39:54
hey, this could be the way that I can invest in the Internet of
39:57
money, so I'm gonna buy. So I, I, I think the market is
40:01
insane right now and I don't think that people understand
40:04
that we're not talking about there's not a single kind of
40:06
person that needs Bitcoin. It's literally every single
40:09
person that needs Bitcoin and. If you can latch on to any one
40:14
of those truths to to understand it just that's and that's one of
40:18
the other pieces. And I can talk about this later.
40:20
But the whole orange peeling thing, you got to figure out
40:22
what people are going to connect to.
40:24
I'm a big nerd, a total geek, whatever.
40:27
I'm a technology guy. That's the thing that that, you
40:29
know, excites me. But I'm also interested in the
40:33
sound money thing. I mean, my somebody was saying
40:36
something about my shirt. Yes, it is.
40:38
It says Anarcho Christian on it because I'm more interested in
40:43
in, you know, foundational truth than the lies and nonsense we're
40:48
told. So I think that that's one of
40:51
the things we're just trying to find the thing that people can
40:54
latch onto. Sound money, cool, awesome
40:57
technology. That's literally the like
40:59
Michael Saylor talks about all the time that, you know, that
41:02
wall of energy protecting money, money.
41:05
That's also awesome. So how can we reach people?
41:07
Let's do it. Let's go.
41:09
Hold on, First off, before I pass it to Luke Chad, the first
41:16
Bitcoin appearance and it's like, bro, off the bat, off the
41:19
chat, just coming in hard and killing it.
41:21
Dude, we got to bring you back on more often.
41:24
This is great. So guys, hey, there's hope for
41:26
you guys in the chat as well. You know, you don't just have to
41:28
troll us. You can come on the show and
41:29
spit some facts. All right, All right, Luke,
41:32
what's your thoughts on this Jack Mahler's take?
41:36
Yeah, So I think Jack is one of the most bullish people in
41:39
Bitcoin. And I always pay close attention
41:41
to what Jack says because he's, you know, he's seen a lot of
41:45
inside baseball in the Bitcoin space.
41:47
He was obviously in El Salvador and helped a lot with, you know,
41:51
creating this Bitcoin legal tender, you know, announcement.
41:54
He has strike. Obviously Strike has roots in
41:58
lots of different countries around the world, so he kind of
42:00
knows, all right, which of these countries wants Bitcoin, which
42:03
of these countries, you know, wants to use the Lightning
42:07
network. So yeah, I think that the whole
42:09
idea of, you know, Bitcoin and what it's what's happening with
42:14
the traditional markets, it's a really interesting one.
42:16
I think yesterday we were kind of talking about this idea of
42:19
the decoupling. And I think right now, I think
42:22
it's tough to say that we're seeing the full blown decoupling
42:27
because again, I still think the full blown decoupling happens
42:30
when we see this big $100,000 daily candle.
42:34
I think that's when it's beginning become absolutely
42:36
undeniable that Bitcoin is decoupling.
42:39
And I do think that day is probably closer than most people
42:42
expected. So until we see the big full
42:45
blown decoupling, I just consider everything else
42:48
interesting. I'm not going to call it noise.
42:51
I do think it's interesting that Bitcoin right now is acting far
42:54
more like a safe haven than what used to be the safe havens
42:58
acting, for example, U.S. Treasuries.
43:01
They were the world's saving account for the past 50 years.
43:06
Countries all around the world knew that they needed to buy
43:09
oil, the most important resource with U.S. dollars.
43:13
So since the petrodollar agreement was struck in 1973,
43:17
sovereigns all around the world, nation states have been putting
43:20
U.S. Treasuries into their
43:23
treasuries, no pun intended. And I think that's really
43:27
interesting because you've only seen treasuries perform really
43:30
well over the past 50 years, but all of that really started to
43:33
change post 2020. Again, I do think 2020 was an
43:38
inflection point for a lot of these cycles that we're living
43:41
through today. And I find it fascinating that
43:43
right now the TLT, the US government official 20 year bond
43:48
is down by like 50% from its all time high three years ago.
43:53
And Bitcoins doing incredibly well.
43:55
So I kind of think about, I like to look at decouplings on more
43:58
of a medium term time horizon. And when you do look at
44:02
decouplings on a medium term time horizon, Bitcoin's already
44:05
done it. Bitcoin has already decoupled.
44:08
It already is the global safe haven asset.
44:12
Over the past three to four years, Bitcoin's up hundreds of
44:15
percent. And the US 20 year Treasury
44:18
bond, again, treasuries are 10s of trillions of dollars in size.
44:23
They're being bleeding capital, bleeding trillions of dollars of
44:26
capital. And all this money is flowing
44:28
into safe havens of the world. Bitcoin, $2 trillion asset and
44:32
gold, it's approaching $20 trillion in size.
44:35
So again, I'm paying very close attention to the decouplings,
44:39
but I'm more interested in these kind of medium term and long
44:42
term decouplings. Love it Luke, I mean for for
44:47
usually being the most bearish guy or bullish guy on the show.
44:51
You're you're being a little level headed on today's show.
44:53
I love it. I I it's hard to ever see Luke
44:56
be level headed here. And just just one more comment
44:59
that the chat is going so hard right now.
45:01
They're saying they're so hopped up on opium.
45:03
So let's I'm literally we're doubling down on that.
45:06
We're going to give you even more opium right now on the news
45:09
because we have Adam back. I think destroying the
45:12
diminishing returns meme and I know so that's like the new hot
45:15
rage right now. And if you do look at the
45:17
charts, they they do have a point when they talk about
45:20
diminishing returns. But let's hear what Adam back
45:23
says about it and that it seems like we might RIP even higher by
45:28
the end of the year. Let's get to it.
45:31
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simply to get 5% off. All right, guys, first of all,
47:53
there's a huge storm outside, so hopefully, hopefully my Internet
47:56
doesn't get wrecked on today anyways, anyways, we got this
48:00
clip here of Adam back. Now we've been talking about
48:03
this on the show. I'm sure if you're on Twitter,
48:06
you've been seeing a lot of people talk about the idea of
48:08
diminishing returns and the fact that hey, like this so far, even
48:13
though we have the most bullish news cycle around Bitcoin, what
48:16
is going on with the price? Like the price should be
48:18
ripping. Everyone's been saying from what
48:21
I'm seeing, the Bitcoin price should be 150 two 100K.
48:23
Like that's not what I'm saying. That's what other people are
48:25
saying, even though I I do kind of agree with him.
48:27
But we have this clip here of Adam back basically being almost
48:31
more bullish than Luke ever is on his channel.
48:35
And you all know Adam bag. He's legendary literally
48:37
referenced in the white paper and he is doubling down on the
48:42
idea that diminishing returns is wrong.
48:45
So as you said, we could be hitting a tipping point.
48:48
Now let's see what his basis is and then we will chat about and
48:52
I'll show you the S cover adoption chart and all the
48:54
charts. I'll show you all the charts.
48:55
Anyways, let's play the clip. And you know, the fact that we
48:59
had an end of epoch new all time high 73 1/2 just before the
49:05
halving, it's kind of I viewed as a kind of confirmation that,
49:09
you know, it would it would have gone higher if not for all of
49:13
those headwinds. And so, you know, I think it's
49:17
probably incorrect to draw too many inferences from the loss
49:21
cycle. And so, you know, if you, if you
49:24
take the hell, I think that there's a lot of positive news,
49:28
$100,000 is way too cheap. I expect to work in the year
49:34
much higher. And you know, we get between
49:38
500,000 and a minimum and a million during this cycle.
49:42
So we'll see if that transpires. And I think the other thing is
49:47
now you people talk about diminishing returns and
49:51
different models. I mean, models are not sort of
49:53
that predictive, but you know, stop deploying foul law or
49:57
various other models and you know, they all this this
50:03
diminishing return theory and like technically an S curve like
50:06
adoption of Internet, adoption of mobile phones when they first
50:09
came out, things like that. They go through a gradually
50:12
phase where it's kind of niche thing and it's expensive and
50:14
very few people have it. And then it becomes a social
50:17
phenomena when everybody has it and the adoption starts to get
50:21
steeper, right Say it could almost be the opposite, right?
50:25
People are calling for diminishing terms.
50:27
But you know, maybe there are 100 million people with some
50:31
form of Bitcoin exposure, you know, that can that can reach a
50:34
tipping point when there are a few more people that have it so
50:38
that you know, everybody's talking about it and then.
50:44
Interesting. All right guys.
50:45
So first of all, for you guys that aren't familiar with the S
50:48
curve adoption, you know, I just did a simple Google search and
50:51
it pops up so you'll see here. You know, just AAI overview
50:54
here. The S curve in technology
50:56
adoption refers to a model depicting how a new technology's
50:59
adoption rate progresses over time following a non linear S
51:04
shaped pattern. It starts slowly with early
51:06
adopters, which I would argue is where we are, then accelerates
51:09
as it gains mainstream acceptance and finally slows
51:12
down as saturation is reached. This curve is often visualized
51:16
as a graph showing cumulative adoption versus time.
51:19
So just kind of breaking that down and kind of connecting this
51:22
to the Bitcoin price. I think we are still in this
51:26
first part. It starts slowly with early
51:28
adopters. And if you look over here on the
51:30
side, you know, kind of zoom in, you can see that even with the s
51:34
s curve, adoption of various new technologies, the Internet, PC,
51:38
mobile phone, TV, electricity, airplane, telephone and the
51:40
automobile. You can see times where you
51:43
know, the price seems, or rather the adoption level seem to be
51:47
kind of slowly going and then it kind of flattens out and then it
51:51
starts ripping upwards it. We've seen this play out many
51:54
times times and even in the TV, which might be like the biggest,
51:58
you know, adoption here, you see it kind of started slow and then
52:01
it did the S see with the PC similar, you know, kind of slow,
52:04
even topped out a little bit and then it rips up.
52:07
Now the only one that's kind of different is the Internet.
52:09
But even if you zoom in here, oh, it won't do it for me.
52:13
You can see it kind of slowed, you know, a little slow, gradual
52:16
adoption and then it ripped up, of course, as it gained
52:19
mainstream acceptance. Now I think the real question
52:22
here is do you guys think we have reach mainstream acceptance
52:26
of Bitcoin? That is the fundamental
52:28
question. We've all been kind of looking
52:29
at Bitcoin. We all have various heuristics
52:32
of where are we in the adoption cycle.
52:35
I know you guys have all seen the Laffer curve here where it's
52:38
like early adopters, you know, early innovators, mainstream
52:41
adoption laggards, etcetera, etcetera.
52:43
I can pull that up later for you guys.
52:45
The question I think on all of our mind is where are we on the
52:48
adoption cycle of Bitcoin? Now, if you look at the the
52:52
halving cycles, of course, I'm over here here on bit bowl.
52:55
You can see various charts here and this one is Bitcoin having
52:58
progress. As you can see compared to other
53:01
cycles, it's not too far off what we've seen in the past.
53:05
So I know a lot of us and I've been kind of on the fence on on
53:09
whether we're still in cycle theory or it's breaking down and
53:12
we are entering this adoption curve.
53:14
One thing I do like to mention is it does seem like we might be
53:18
seeing this adoption curve where actually I'll go over here where
53:22
you see Bitcoin kind of, you know, it looks like it's
53:24
leveling off. And then at a certain point,
53:26
whatever that tipping point is, is when you start to see that S
53:29
curve adoption cycle. Now, looking from others, you
53:32
know, charts here cycle low multiple, you can see here, and
53:36
I'm the most colorblind guy ever, but you can see what is
53:39
this the 2013 in blue and then what is 2021 in green?
53:44
And is this yellow for 2017? And then of course, down here at
53:47
the bottom is red for this current cycle.
53:50
And we put we showed you this chart before, but I think in in
53:53
context of the S curve adoption, it's very interesting to watch.
53:58
Like are we going to start seeing the Bitcoin price RIP?
54:01
Are we going to have a later blow off top than we've seen in
54:03
previous cycles? Or is this, you know, pretty
54:06
much following the 2017 top? And I know last week we were
54:10
looking at the 2021 bull run and I was like, hey, if we just hit
54:13
the 2021 bull run here, like I think we'll all be pretty happy.
54:17
And again, another one, and I've been I've been referencing this
54:20
conversation I had with Stefan Libera at Bitlock Boom.
54:23
And if you do look at this chart here, I think diminishing
54:27
returns does kind of play out in everyone's mind.
54:30
As you can see, era 2, you know, was the highest peak here.
54:32
Then era three, it was a little lower.
54:35
And then era 4, which was the disappointing bull run of 2021,
54:39
it was significantly lower. And as of now, you know,
54:43
diminishing return meme does seem to line up to reality.
54:47
And of course here we, we are very big on just understanding
54:51
Bitcoin in context to reality, not just ideal, not just what we
54:55
want it to do, but looking at the hard data and being like,
54:58
OK, this is where we are. So I think if you look at the
55:01
having charts or the bull markets compared to previous
55:04
cycles, the diminishing return mean does line up very well.
55:08
Like I think it's a very conservative idea to be like,
55:11
yeah, I mean, diminishing return so far based on the data is
55:15
playing out, though. I want to bring back the S curve
55:18
adoption cycle because you can see it does seem like maybe
55:22
we're going to see, you know, some something like that and
55:25
then it starts ripping up. And do we know what the tipping
55:28
cycle is? No, but I do want to kind of
55:31
maybe I can pull it up while we get Chad and Luke to talk about
55:34
it. The that infamous chart, and I
55:36
know you guys have seen it of the Bitcoin price based on the S
55:40
curve adoption. And this is like the most hopium
55:43
inundated chart ever where like, yeah, it looks like it's
55:45
diminishing return, but at a certain point we get that S
55:48
curve adoption and it starts ripping.
55:50
So I'll try to find this and you know, I'm going to do a
55:52
curveball here because Chad's been kind of killing it.
55:54
Chad, what's your thoughts on diminishing returns and are we
55:57
following the S curve of technological adoption in terms
56:01
of Bitcoin adoption? So how much time you got here
56:05
here, Here's the thing, man, I started in my IT like career
56:11
back in the early 90s with the Internet and I was in college,
56:17
found out about this Internet thing, e-mail.
56:19
Oh, this is the coolest thing. E-mail I could send to people on
56:22
the mainframe and watching the Internet grow and all the things
56:28
online where people didn't understand.
56:30
I was working at a company and I try, I was like, we have to get
56:33
electronic mail because it's so productive and everybody thought
56:38
I'd lost my mind. So I've been I've been in
56:41
through that exact curve before and we are not even remotely
56:46
into early adopter phase in my mind.
56:50
Because when you look at those things, the reason the
56:53
television shot up as fast as it did is because what is the thing
56:57
that's holding you back? Literally you buy ATV, you plug
57:01
it in at your house and now it connects to stuff over the
57:03
airwaves automatically. The difficulty level of a
57:06
television is basically 0. When you start looking at some
57:09
of those other things like an automobile, well, you have to
57:11
learn how to drive. So it's difficult to map those
57:15
things one to one. Understanding self sovereign
57:18
money with Bitcoin is a big deal and without having the financial
57:22
tools, the pool was smaller than it is nowadays as and IA 100%.
57:28
I'm a self sovereign guy. Let's the hardware wallets,
57:30
let's do the thing. But when it comes to, to that
57:33
kind of reality of you are 100% responsible for your money, that
57:39
is a huge mindset shift for people in the modern society.
57:42
People are not ready to take responsibility.
57:44
We're a, we're a society full of children and it's pathetic,
57:49
honestly. And that's one of the things I
57:51
think we, we, the reason diminishing returns has been a
57:54
thing is because the pool, the people that are willing to take
57:56
their own responsibility and the willingness to handle things and
58:00
understand it and learn about it and spend your 10,000 hours and
58:03
all those kinds of things. That pool is only so big and I'm
58:08
already putting in as much money as I possibly can into Bitcoin.
58:11
I mean, I still have chairs and I'm not selling my bases.
58:14
But other than that, the point is that, I mean, those of us
58:18
that are that are in are in. So we have to now get that
58:22
information out to the next batch of folks, which could
58:25
potentially be those people that are going to buy the ETFs and
58:27
then learn about it and get more information.
58:29
But we're in the early stages. In my mind, cycle theory has
58:33
happened because the pool is small.
58:35
But in terms of like actual adoption, we're not even, we're
58:40
not even started yet. Take a look at the price of gold
58:43
in Weimar Germany and that the giant spikes and that's the kind
58:49
of chart we're talking about with Bitcoin, and we're on the
58:52
left side of that chart. Man killing it, as Elaine said
58:57
here, all the Bitcoin Maxis are 140 plus iqs, and this is a fact
59:01
with the Chad Mercer coming on here just killing it.
59:04
I did find a chart here. It's not the exact chart I
59:07
wanted, but I I think it makes my point anyway.
59:09
So let me just pull this up real quick and then I'll I'll get
59:11
Luke to you know chat about what he thinks and here like.
59:16
I think this chart is very, very interesting here.
59:20
Do we know when this tipping point is?
59:21
But essentially you can see like the whole or you can kind of see
59:24
it here at the bottom, but it's a video.
59:26
So here, let me let me just like do this and you can kind of see
59:29
it, see it there, guys, like the bottom price, all the price that
59:34
we've seen in the last 15 years on a certain time frame.
59:37
And I do truly believe this. It's going to look flat when we
59:40
actually hit that tipping point of mainstream adoption and we
59:44
hit that S curve. And do we know when that is?
59:46
You know, maybe it's a decade from now.
59:48
Maybe you know, as as Adam backs, maybe it's this cycle.
59:51
I'm being a little more conservative.
59:53
I think it's more of a a decade from now, like maybe 10 years is
59:57
when we still have some games left in this Bitcoin thing.
1:00:00
But I'll, I'll try to find the meme while Luke goes.
1:00:03
So Luke, what's your thoughts? Are we seeing diminishing?
1:00:06
Actually, I already know your answer.
1:00:07
I know you don't like diminishing returns, so RIP it.
1:00:10
And then we're going to talk to Chad.
1:00:11
Chad's been killing it, so I'm excited for this.
1:00:15
Yeah, I mean, diminishing returns, power laws, throw them
1:00:18
all in the trash. I think all of these models are
1:00:20
completely useless. And This is why, OK, these guys
1:00:24
don't extrapolate out the maths or the end game.
1:00:28
OK, so a lot of people, how much wealth is there in the world
1:00:31
today? Let's be conservative and say
1:00:33
there's $900 trillion of wealth. Let's completely ignore the one
1:00:36
quadrillion dollar derivatives market.
1:00:39
There's $900 trillion of wealth. Do we really think Bitcoin can
1:00:42
only get 10% of the world's wealth, $90 trillion?
1:00:47
I think that's stupidly conservative.
1:00:50
But let's say your end game for Bitcoin is $90 trillion.
1:00:55
We're at $2 trillion today. It's taken us 16 years to go
1:00:58
from 0 to $2 trillion. Do we really think that every 16
1:01:05
years bitcoins gonna slowly but surely grow $2 trillion?
1:01:09
For what? How many years is this?
1:01:11
Is this 400 years before Bitcoin reaches $90 trillion in size?
1:01:16
This is kind of what the diminishing returns theory grows
1:01:20
are projecting and I mean, do are they really so bearish to
1:01:23
think that they're not Bitcoin can't capture 10% of the world's
1:01:26
wealth when it's 1000 times better at storing capital than
1:01:30
everything else in the $900 trillion.
1:01:33
So again, I think there's like there's, there's a lack of big
1:01:36
picture thinking amongst the diminishing returns theory Bros.
1:01:39
They're saying look at the past 16 years of data.
1:01:42
Let's extrapolate that fault. I just think that's completely
1:01:45
stupid. It's completely faulty.
1:01:46
It doesn't make any sense. We're in a completely different
1:01:48
regime post 2020. Like pre 2020, we're in a regime
1:01:53
where there was no demand for Bitcoin from the people who
1:01:56
actually had access to all of the large pools of capital.
1:02:00
No nation states, no sovereign wealth funds, no pension funds,
1:02:05
no Larry Finks, no Michael Saylors, no public companies
1:02:08
were adopting Bitcoin pre 2020. So the guys who actually
1:02:12
controlled the majority of the $900 trillion of Bitcoin before
1:02:16
2020, they were not demanding Bitcoin.
1:02:19
And at the same time, there was an abundant amount of supply
1:02:23
available of Bitcoin. We know that the available
1:02:25
Bitcoin on exchanges only grew before 2020.
1:02:29
Now I think we're in a completely different supply and
1:02:32
demand regime. Post 2020.
1:02:34
We've actually seen 35% of all the available Bitcoin leave the
1:02:38
exchanges. More than 1,000,000 Bitcoin have
1:02:41
left the exchanges since 2020. We now have a consistent trend
1:02:45
of the supply of Bitcoin diminishing rapidly.
1:02:48
And what about the demand? We now have demand from the big
1:02:51
boys. So I think projecting all of
1:02:53
that 12 years worth of data between 2008 and 2020 Fords,
1:02:57
it's completely, it's a terrible idea.
1:03:00
I don't think it makes any sense whatsoever.
1:03:02
And I think like I continue to say, price is the most useless
1:03:06
metric. It is a lagging indicator.
1:03:09
And the price over the past four years or five years since we've
1:03:12
been in this new regime, it is lulling everybody into sleep and
1:03:16
it is preparing a lot of people to make really foolish mistakes
1:03:21
thinking that oh, Bitcoin's going to top at 180 K and I'm
1:03:24
going to buy more Bitcoin at 120 K.
1:03:27
And again, the creator of this model has openly said I'm gonna
1:03:30
multiply my bitcoins by 12X by trading these stupid bands that
1:03:35
I've drawn on the chart. I think it's a dangerous idea.
1:03:37
I would just highly encourage everybody else to study the
1:03:40
history of technologies because technologies get adopted in
1:03:44
exponential curves. I think we're incredibly early
1:03:47
in Bitcoin's adoption cycle. 100% agree with Chad.
1:03:50
I think we are not even close to any sort of a well.
1:03:55
So hang on. I do think we're close to a
1:03:56
tipping point, but I do think we're a long way away from
1:03:59
mainstream Bitcoin adoption. Again, I could talk about this
1:04:02
topic for hours. A lot of people genuinely just
1:04:05
think I'm a hopium dealer. They just think that I'm as
1:04:08
bullish as I am just for the fun of things and I just don't
1:04:11
believe the things I say. If that were true, I would just
1:04:14
say why did I shit on stock to flow IN2021A model that was
1:04:19
predicting $288,000 and $1,000,000 by 2030 and the power
1:04:23
law predicting $1,000,000 by 2033.
1:04:26
I think a lot of people, a lot of these promoters of these
1:04:30
models say don't listen to simply Bitcoin, they're too
1:04:32
bullish. Don't listen to crazy Luke with
1:04:34
a lesbian haircut. He's just a hopium dealer.
1:04:36
He doesn't believe the numbers he's talking about.
1:04:38
They're just bull tarts, right? This is what the creators, these
1:04:41
models say and just think about it for a minute.
1:04:43
If we really just wanted to be bull tards getting clicks,
1:04:47
wouldn't we love power law models and you know, stop the
1:04:51
flow models? Wouldn't that make more sense?
1:04:54
So again, I just, I just genuinely believe most people
1:04:56
haven't studied the history of technology.
1:04:59
Technologies get adopted in exponential curves, and I think
1:05:01
Bitcoin's really rare because it has two different adoption
1:05:05
curves. You have a medium of exchange
1:05:08
adoption curve, which is going to take decades longer to reach
1:05:12
full saturation. This is tracking how many people
1:05:15
are using Bitcoin as a medium of exchange and a unit of account.
1:05:18
How many of my local Karens are buying coffees with Bitcoin.
1:05:22
OK. This is the second adoption
1:05:23
curve, which I think is going to take so much longer to play out.
1:05:26
I think the more meaningful adoption curve for Bitcoin's
1:05:30
price and adoption is the store value adoption curve.
1:05:33
And again, I've probably talked for 10 minutes, so I'm not going
1:05:36
to talk about the differences between these two adoption
1:05:38
curves. But the first, the adoption
1:05:40
curve, the store of value adoption curve, I think we're
1:05:43
beginning to in the minds of the people who actually control all
1:05:49
of the capital in the world. The Larry thinks nation states,
1:05:51
pension funds, public corporations, you guys get who
1:05:53
I'm talking about. These guys control the $900
1:05:56
trillion of capital and their adoption rate is much, much
1:06:00
higher than the carrots using Bitcoin as a medium exchange to
1:06:04
buy their coffees. And I think the the rapid
1:06:07
adoption we are seeing in these big entities enter the space
1:06:11
post 2020. I think that's what we need to
1:06:13
be paying attention to when we are thinking about these
1:06:16
adoption curves. 100% Luke absolutely killed it look, I I
1:06:19
pulled up some charts here guys and these aren't the ones that I
1:06:22
had in mind, but I think it makes the point for us anyway.
1:06:25
So go to Bitcoin verse global adoption path or RWA global
1:06:28
adoption path. And you can see here 3% adoption
1:06:31
Bitcoin in 2025, online banking. It's similar to online banking
1:06:34
in 1996, social media in 2005, Internet in 1990.
1:06:38
And and you could basically, and of course, we're speculating
1:06:41
here, but put the whole all of the Bitcoin price gains you've
1:06:44
seen so far on this S curve. And if this plays out, it's very
1:06:49
it's very hard to say that we're not going to see some crazy
1:06:52
games left in Bitcoin. And then another one here,
1:06:54
similar S curve adoption. Again, this isn't the one that
1:06:57
I've seen. The one I've seen is like
1:06:58
literally on trading view. And it's like the most hopium,
1:07:01
hopium ridden chart ever. But you can see here, you know,
1:07:04
early adopt or innovators, the early adopters at 10%, then the
1:07:07
early majority. And I think I'd kind of argue
1:07:10
that maybe it could be even pushed back a little bit.
1:07:13
I think we might still be early adopters.
1:07:16
Now we're entering early majority and as you can see as
1:07:19
more people come on, I have one simple heuristic.
1:07:21
Like if you guys still talk to normal people and you go out in
1:07:24
public and of course they don't have much capital.
1:07:26
Like your friends and family probably aren't the Larry Finks
1:07:28
of the world. But if you go and talk to normal
1:07:30
people and you ask them about Bitcoin, they all basically have
1:07:33
the same view. It's like what?
1:07:35
Like, OK, cool story bro. Did you hear about the game?
1:07:38
And the last one, which I think obviously this is a meme, this
1:07:41
is speculation here, but we are probably in this acceleration
1:07:45
phase. And then if we do get, or rather
1:07:48
when we do get the hyper growth phase is when we see what Luke's
1:07:51
been saying, you know, 100K Omega candles.
1:07:54
And then maybe 100 years from now, maybe 30 years from now is
1:07:58
where you get this deceleration phase.
1:08:00
And then it the, you know, the gains are quote UN quote gone in
1:08:02
Bitcoin. It's just the best store value,
1:08:04
the perfect money, something that doesn't lose value.
1:08:07
And then as Chad was saying, here is the price of gold in
1:08:11
Weimar marks here. And so these are all charts that
1:08:14
all of us bitcoiners love. And you can see the extreme
1:08:17
volatility here. So none of this is new.
1:08:20
None of this is out of the realm of possibilities.
1:08:23
We've seen all of this stuff play out before.
1:08:25
And I, again, we could talk about this forever, but I do
1:08:28
want to go quickly into the culture so that we can talk with
1:08:31
Chad because he's just dropping hot fire on us.
1:08:33
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1:08:36
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today. All right, Chad, so this is
1:10:42
going to be fun guys. So we have a, you know, 2014
1:10:45
Bitcoiner and and we're going to do is rabbit hole story and then
1:10:49
he's going to teach you guys how to orange pill properly.
1:10:52
Hopefully. I know you guys need some help
1:10:54
with that. And then also an interesting
1:10:56
story about recovering an old Bitcoin wallet.
1:10:58
So we we got some cool stuff here.
1:11:00
You know, again, Chad literally reached out to us a bitlock
1:11:03
Boom. He's like, dude, I watch your
1:11:04
show. He's like, I watch the show on
1:11:06
3X every single day. I got a lot of content to get
1:11:08
through. So literally one of you guys in
1:11:10
the chat and and you just been killing it today.
1:11:13
You you've been given great, great signal on today's show.
1:11:15
But let's start with, you know, your rabbit hole story, man, you
1:11:19
said you're a 2014 Bitcoiner and before the show you're like,
1:11:21
look, I'm a 2014 Bitcoiner. But you know, I'm I'm a little
1:11:26
ashamed to say I did get sidetracked, but I think there's
1:11:29
some lessons in their chat. So let's talk about it. 2014
1:11:32
Bitcoiner and you know your journey to get to this point.
1:11:37
Yes, I was looking up today before the show.
1:11:41
I was looking up my, my Coinbase account, you know, 'cause that's
1:11:44
where I started October 18th, 2014.
1:11:47
I bought Bitcoin at $391.37 legend.
1:11:51
And I hate myself every time I see that number because of
1:11:56
course I'm a, I'm a smart guy and I am a programmer and
1:12:00
Bitcoin is boring and I, there's all these shiny things that are
1:12:05
code and I can go work on some altcoin stuff.
1:12:08
And I was there, you know, draining doge from doge faucets
1:12:12
when they were giving away Dogecoin back in the day.
1:12:14
I mean, the good news about that was I did, I was able to trade
1:12:17
that into Bitcoin. So I that, that was an
1:12:20
appropriate trade. But but yeah, I got sidetracked
1:12:23
by a bunch of shitcoins, got into a lot of the how do I
1:12:27
optimize trying to figure out ways to feed my kids.
1:12:33
You know, it's important to feed your family.
1:12:35
And so I ended up selling up a lot of Bitcoin at higher prices.
1:12:40
I mean, I made my returns. I was in that investment mindset
1:12:43
that you're in taught in school or whatever, read my Kiplinger's
1:12:47
magazine. And Bitcoin is just one of my
1:12:50
diversified portfolio, which at this point I realize is
1:12:53
nonsense, but basically at this point, I'm 100% Bitcoin, Bitcoin
1:13:00
maxi to the, to the NTH degree. I, I've done all the things in
1:13:06
terms of making the mistakes, I've lost wallets and all those
1:13:10
kinds of things. So I, I do think it's very
1:13:13
important that people understand what they're getting into.
1:13:16
And so I think that the orange filling thing that Opti's
1:13:19
talking about, I think it's very important that people understand
1:13:21
that not everybody is going to be at the maxi level
1:13:24
immediately. So you have to meet people where
1:13:26
they are. So I think that's the most
1:13:28
important thing from an orange peeling perspective and from a
1:13:32
are you really smarter than Bitcoin?
1:13:35
Adam Back is there like blowing my mind every time he talks.
1:13:39
And you got Mahler's out there and just all these guys.
1:13:43
There's so many people in the community, even a bit block
1:13:46
boom. I met half a dozen or a dozen
1:13:47
folks. It was in Denver earlier this
1:13:50
year at a Heat Punk Summit where people are like heating their
1:13:52
homes with Bitcoin and which I've been doing for a while.
1:13:56
And those kinds of things are just, there's so many people
1:14:00
that understand it. And it's not just about money,
1:14:02
it's about the philosophy and the freedom and the all the, all
1:14:05
of those things that are very important.
1:14:07
So. Absolutely love it.
1:14:08
Chad before we get into your orange pill story, like I would
1:14:11
say a a pretty solid orange pill story, I want to ask you what
1:14:15
what do you think was the one catalyst for you that finally
1:14:18
made like the whole Bitcoin maxi for lack of better terms Click
1:14:22
to you? I would say that there, there's
1:14:24
a couple of things #1 the, the, the situation around a lot of
1:14:28
the nonsense with FTX and, and all that, the paper Bitcoin that
1:14:32
was occurring and the proof of reserves kind of argument that
1:14:36
came out, as well as the shift, the shift with Ethereum from
1:14:41
proof of work to proof of stake. Because that, that was one of
1:14:45
those things where it's like, wait, wait a second, you're
1:14:46
telling me it's ultrasound money, all those kinds of
1:14:49
things, all the stories. But you've changed the monetary
1:14:52
policy how many Times Now and you guys can just vote to do
1:14:55
that. And it's only about 6 people
1:14:58
that get to make that decision. And now it's all the people that
1:15:01
hold all the money that get to make those decisions.
1:15:04
That doesn't seem, that doesn't seem very appropriate at all.
1:15:08
That's like a literal copy of the existing system.
1:15:11
That's not what we want philosophically as Bitcoiners.
1:15:14
We want sound money, truth at the foundational layer, 21
1:15:17
million and there's never going to be more right.
1:15:19
So that shift was the thing that, OK, it's the number 2
1:15:24
cryptocurrency or whatever. And it it became very obvious
1:15:28
when that one went completely S that everything else is just a
1:15:31
bad version of Bitcoin. Solana from a from an
1:15:35
implementation and technological perspective, you compare that
1:15:39
with Ethereum, it's like, yeah, it's way faster, but it's less
1:15:41
stable. And Ethereum's already hot
1:15:44
garbage when it comes to that in comparison to Bitcoin in my
1:15:46
mind. So from as a technologist,
1:15:50
Bitcoin is the only answer. Like stop, stop looking for
1:15:53
other stuff. Just do it with Bitcoin.
1:15:56
Totally. And and like before, I do want
1:15:59
to comment on this because I've noticed this as well.
1:16:01
There's a lot of really smart people that come into Bitcoin
1:16:04
that are like yourself. You know, IT guys, they've been
1:16:06
around computers for forever and they, they, I forget, you know,
1:16:10
for lack of better terms, they like see the new shiny thing and
1:16:13
they're like, yes, like I want to, you know, I can, I can tweak
1:16:16
this and I can mess with this. And then they get sidetracked.
1:16:20
And just because you're like a very smart guy and you're,
1:16:23
you're a part of computers, there is a whole lot of
1:16:26
different things and, and disciplines around Bitcoin that
1:16:29
you do need to understand to fully grok, like why Bitcoin is
1:16:32
different. And it's not just it's a, you
1:16:34
know, new technology and you know, I can it's programmable
1:16:38
money and I can week in and I can manipulate it.
1:16:40
And it's like, yeah, that's cool and all, but like, that's
1:16:43
literally what you said, recreating the Fiat system.
1:16:45
So I just wanted to jump in there.
1:16:47
But let's go to, like you said, you're an IT guy and let's jump
1:16:51
into this orange pill story because I think people can learn
1:16:53
on what you said. And I've been saying this on the
1:16:55
show for a long time. And I got this from How to Win
1:16:58
Friends and Influence. And it's essentially you got to
1:17:00
bait the hook for the fish you're trying to catch.
1:17:03
And you said something very similar.
1:17:04
So give some context to the people who did you orange pill
1:17:07
and how did you do it? So I, I have orange peeled a few
1:17:11
people, some business associates and whatever that one of one of
1:17:16
the guys that watches the show all the time.
1:17:19
He's actually in El Salvador right now and he's buying,
1:17:23
buying stuff with Bitcoin down in El Salvador.
1:17:25
So that's pretty cool. But the, the story that, that
1:17:29
I've been talking with Nico about a little bit at bit block
1:17:31
boom was orange peeling. The company that I work for, I
1:17:34
work for an architecture firm here in Wichita, KS.
1:17:38
We have multiple offices and whatever and, and, but I, the
1:17:43
way that I did it, the my boss is the CFO and I've known her
1:17:48
for decades, literally, and just started working at, at the
1:17:51
company to help out in IT. And then I run the IT department
1:17:54
now. But with that, I had gotten her
1:17:58
into Bitcoin back in the earlier times.
1:18:01
And let me, let me first of all say everything I say is not on
1:18:04
behalf of the company, etcetera, etcetera, legal nonsense.
1:18:07
OK, so anyway, I had been heating my house with Bitcoin
1:18:12
miners for a while. The old S 9 slap at the
1:18:15
basement. It runs on regular power.
1:18:17
Oh, I need to get a better one. I put it in my garage.
1:18:20
You know those kinds of things. But I, so I had these miners and
1:18:25
I was trying to get her to let me get the company into Bitcoin.
1:18:29
So what I did was I figured out a way to get miners into the
1:18:33
building and set up a an account and mined into that account.
1:18:39
And then one day I showed her a Bitcoin wallet that had an
1:18:44
amount of Bitcoin in it. I'm not obviously going to, I
1:18:47
have voltage amounts. But anyway, it was like, yeah,
1:18:51
you notice how the meeting rooms aren't cold anymore.
1:18:54
You notice how your office is warmer.
1:18:57
Not only is it warmer, but you're, you actually have all
1:18:59
this Bitcoin now. So the company had Bitcoin on
1:19:02
their balance sheet at that point.
1:19:03
And then at that point, I was able to give a presentation to
1:19:06
the, to the executive team, executive team.
1:19:09
I sat down and gave them all the charts and did all the things.
1:19:12
And hey, I've been doing this for a minute and you know,
1:19:14
here's the technology and here's the, the, the monetary
1:19:17
principles and things like that. And so they were willing to, to
1:19:21
get into that. And so we, we have Bitcoin on
1:19:24
the balance sheet. We are engaged in mining and we
1:19:28
are an architecture firm. So one of the things that I've
1:19:30
been working with the, the president, the company and my
1:19:34
boss, the CFO, and we've been kind of talking through like
1:19:38
models to involve Bitcoin from a heating perspective, which is
1:19:43
why I was at the Bitcoin heat Punk Summit.
1:19:45
Tons of guys there that I met that were just super awesome.
1:19:47
Tyler Stevens, the guy that that that started that summit has
1:19:51
written a cool book on heat reuse with mining.
1:19:54
And there's tons of people I'm working with a bunch of guys
1:19:56
that I met with up there. There's a guy that that does hot
1:19:59
tub heating which I'm getting ready to implement at my house
1:20:01
with an old hot tub that. I was getting thrown away and I
1:20:04
was like, hey, man, I can heat that with my, with my Bitcoin
1:20:06
miner and, and the guys that are running resorts that are heating
1:20:10
their resorts with, with the Bitcoin mining.
1:20:13
So I, I'm really excited about that part.
1:20:16
And so to me, it's not just the, hey, it's a company that's
1:20:18
putting Bitcoin on the balance sheet.
1:20:21
It's it's a company that is hopefully going to be able to
1:20:24
help people to design buildings where we are using Bitcoin
1:20:28
mining to heat the building, which is an exciting, in my
1:20:32
mind, very exciting thing to do. Yeah, I think the take away
1:20:35
here, the TLDR guys is give your friends, your family, whoever
1:20:40
you're trying to pitch orange peel like a concrete example of
1:20:43
how Bitcoin improves their lives.
1:20:45
And of course not everyone's going to be able to recreate
1:20:47
what you did and just like plug in miners at your at your office
1:20:51
and be like, oh hey guys. Yeah.
1:20:52
So I've been mining on company electricity and look at our
1:20:56
wallet like I don't know man, you're.
1:20:57
All right, those miners are cheap now.
1:20:59
You can get some S nines real cheap.
1:21:01
Just slide them in the cabinet, you know?
1:21:04
What I mean? Yeah, again, this is not
1:21:06
financial advice nor career advice.
1:21:08
I do not advise you doing this. But hey, you know, fine.
1:21:12
Concord exam samples to show people how Bitcoin improves
1:21:15
their lives. I've been saying this for a
1:21:17
long, long time now. I do kind of want to pivot here
1:21:20
because we are kind of getting to the end of the show.
1:21:22
And I did mention that you mentioned to us this idea of
1:21:25
recovering an old Bitcoin wallet.
1:21:27
Again, you don't have to divulge how much Bitcoin, but maybe
1:21:31
maybe people are feeling this, you know, maybe people have
1:21:33
gotten themselves in this position and maybe there's some
1:21:36
hope there that they can get back into it.
1:21:38
So, and let's talk about this story.
1:21:40
So first of all, this is, it's gonna be one of those things
1:21:43
that'll be, I'm glad that this is gonna be on the Internet cuz
1:21:45
now I'm just gonna be have no shame left because this is super
1:21:49
embarrassing. So let's just say that I've been
1:21:52
in Bitcoin long enough that I had a paper wallet or an old
1:21:55
wallet from the old Bitcoin Core software where your wallet was
1:21:57
actually literally the Bitcoin software and had the passphrase
1:22:02
on it and the seed words and all this stuff, right?
1:22:05
And I, I'm a smart guy, right? So I'm super smart and I, I know
1:22:10
that I need to pick a password that nobody's going to know,
1:22:12
right? So I got to pick a pat.
1:22:13
This is before all the password managers and stuff like that
1:22:15
anyway, So I can't even believe I'm going to say this.
1:22:20
So I have this, I have this wallet and I can't figure out
1:22:23
the passphrase. I find the wallet later.
1:22:24
It's like I, I, I, I wasn't even thinking about it or whatever.
1:22:27
And I found, I was like, wait a minute, I have a wallet.
1:22:29
So I, I go and check and I can't open the wallet because I can't
1:22:32
remember the password because I'm a smart guy and I'm so
1:22:35
smart, I tricked myself. So I didn't have the password.
1:22:38
So anyway, there's a password recovery guy and I, I,
1:22:40
unfortunately I don't have his contact information, but if you,
1:22:43
if you would hit me up on orange pill or whatever, I'd be happy
1:22:46
to share his contact information.
1:22:48
And he was like, hey, I can do, I can recover your phrase or I
1:22:51
can recover your wallet, but you'll have to give me a
1:22:53
percentage of the Bitcoin. And I was like, well, let me
1:22:55
just see if I can figure it out. And I, I literally ran a brute
1:22:58
force hacking software against my wallet for literally months
1:23:03
and I could not come up with anything.
1:23:05
So anyway, I finally was like, well, I can either get 0 Bitcoin
1:23:08
or whatever it was 70% or the Bitcoin or whatever.
1:23:13
Anyway, I sent it to this guy and he was like, dude, I don't
1:23:17
know, this is crazy. This, this password is insane.
1:23:20
What did you do? And I was like, I don't know.
1:23:22
He was like, all right, well, sorry man.
1:23:24
I was like, all right, whatever. Like five years later.
1:23:28
Wow. Five years later, the guy like
1:23:30
sends me an e-mail and he's like, hey, by the way, I, I, I,
1:23:34
I cracked your, I cracked your password or whatever.
1:23:37
And I was like, no way. And he's like, no, really, he's
1:23:40
like give me a, give me a wallet address or whatever and I can
1:23:42
send you the, the, the, the, whatever percentage.
1:23:44
I think, I think it, I think he takes 70 or he takes 30% of the,
1:23:48
of the wallet. And, and for the record, it is
1:23:52
not a gajillion Bitcoin, so no $5 wrench attacks, please.
1:23:56
Anyway, I was like, so can you tell me what the password was?
1:24:00
This is making me crazy. Like how, how could I not
1:24:02
remember this password? And he's like, if I give you a
1:24:05
single word of this password, you will know what the password
1:24:08
is and then you will be able to recover the you will be able to
1:24:11
recover it, right? And I was like, OK, fine,
1:24:13
whatever. And so, so I sent it to him and
1:24:17
he sent me the Bitcoin and the password was, and let me be very
1:24:25
clear, the reason that this makes sense at all is because
1:24:28
I'm a huge metal head. I listen to metal like that's
1:24:31
the only thing I listen to anymore.
1:24:35
I mean, I like Meshuggah and Living Sacrifice and all kinds
1:24:37
of stuff. I was in a metal band for a long
1:24:39
time. Anyway, Anyway, the password
1:24:42
was, I like big butts. And I cannot lie, that was the
1:24:47
password because no one is going to guess that I'm going to use
1:24:52
that phrase. I I was having a conversation
1:24:55
with my wife, who is a big rap fan, and she said that that she
1:24:59
was like, you know, listening to a song.
1:25:01
I was like, is that really what the lyrics are?
1:25:03
And she's like, yeah, she's like, and she, you know, recited
1:25:07
the lyrics or whatever. I was like, I can't believe
1:25:08
that's actually lyrics in a song.
1:25:10
And she's anyway, she was like, yeah, it is.
1:25:12
And so that was the password that I used was a, was a phrase
1:25:15
that I couldn't believe was real.
1:25:18
That is so funny. Lock yourself out of your wallet
1:25:21
because of a Sir mixed lot song. That is absolutely hilarious.
1:25:26
Yep, Yep. And and she does not let me live
1:25:28
that down for the record. So anyway.
1:25:32
Oh man, that's a good that's a great story.
1:25:35
As the Chad said, like Chad's like an actual OG.
1:25:39
What a legend. This is too funny.
1:25:41
Also, I mean, kudos to that, you know, the the wallet hacker dude
1:25:46
for like being moral and ethical about it and be like, hey, years
1:25:50
later. Oh, actually, dude, I just got
1:25:52
into your your wallet. Like that's pretty cool and.
1:25:54
Let me be clear, just in case anybody wants to do it.
1:25:56
The way that that particular thing worked, you didn't have to
1:25:59
send your actual wallet. You could, there was a specific
1:26:02
methodology you could use with that particular version of the
1:26:04
software where you could send, and I don't remember all the
1:26:06
technical details, but you could send him a thing where he
1:26:09
couldn't move the Bitcoin, but he could detect whether or not
1:26:12
he unlocked that wallet. So interesting.
1:26:14
Anyway, nowadays it's not really a thing.
1:26:17
And hey, by the way, you should buy all the awesome things that
1:26:20
they sell on the show because they're awesome and you should
1:26:23
get those. Let's go.
1:26:24
Well, man, that is I think that I I don't know if we can top
1:26:29
that story on today's show. So Chad, that was amazing.
1:26:33
I don't know Luke, you want to you want to chime in here and
1:26:35
get some lols on this or we could wrap up today's show.
1:26:39
No lols. I'm going to put my serious Luke
1:26:41
Cap on here for a moment because I've done the exact same thing.
1:26:45
I again tried to big brain myself and the first ever
1:26:49
hardware wallet I ever used back in like 2017.
1:26:52
It was a Ledger and I was like, okay, if I'm writing down my C
1:26:56
phrase, I've got to do a big brain Luke, right?
1:26:58
So what I did was I wrote down a different word of my seed phrase
1:27:02
on a different page of a book. It was an old school book with a
1:27:05
ton of writing in it. And Long story short, I checked
1:27:08
back in on that hardware wallet like 2 to three years later in
1:27:12
2019 and 2020. And I figured out that not only
1:27:16
did I forget my passcode to my Ledger that I didn't look at for
1:27:19
like 3 years, but I also copped up my C phrase.
1:27:24
So it was all scrambled because I had like 24 words on different
1:27:28
pages. And you would think I would do
1:27:29
it like word one on page one, word 2 on page 2O.
1:27:32
No, I really tried the big brain myself.
1:27:35
So they were like I, I, I scrambled it all up.
1:27:37
Long story short, there was like 2 words out of my C phrase that
1:27:40
I was pretty sure was wrong because they were kind of like
1:27:43
spelled a little bit funky. So I also use one of those brute
1:27:46
forcing tools and I had to like let it run offline for like a
1:27:50
couple of weeks and it eventually gave me my seat
1:27:54
phrase back and gave me access to my wallet that might have had
1:27:57
like 20 to 30% of my life savings in it.
1:28:00
So it was a good chunk, right? So what I will say is I
1:28:03
encourage the people, please do like firstly, never put all your
1:28:08
Bitcoin in the one setup. Diversification of Bitcoin
1:28:11
setups is a great idea. Always make sure that you can
1:28:15
never spend all of your own bitcoins and never have your
1:28:18
hardware wallets in your own house.
1:28:20
I travel a lot around the world and none of the Bitcoin that I
1:28:24
have, Omni, none of the hardware wallets I have Omni, can
1:28:27
actually spend Bitcoin. I have to go to different
1:28:29
countries to pick up different seeds, to do all sorts of
1:28:33
different things to spend my Bitcoins.
1:28:35
So I would just encourage everybody to actually, you know,
1:28:39
take yourself custody seriously. Do a check in once a month,
1:28:42
maybe once every two months if you have passwords to remember,
1:28:45
if you have backup phrases distributed in different
1:28:48
locations. It doesn't have to be around the
1:28:50
world, just around your town, you know, I mean, do a check in,
1:28:54
do a check up, make sure your mom hasn't lost your bloody that
1:28:57
strange piece of titanium with your 12 words on it that she
1:29:00
thinks it's just a play toy. It's very important.
1:29:03
Mom, look after this thing like it's generational wealth.
1:29:06
And yeah, do a check in on your security because again, we talk
1:29:10
about these really bullish prices of Bitcoin in the future.
1:29:13
I always talk about how Bitcoin is generational wealth.
1:29:16
You need less than you think. But the biggest caveat I make in
1:29:19
all of my bull tarted opium dealing video is this only
1:29:24
applies if you actually look after your Bitcoin or self
1:29:27
custody your Bitcoin. If Bitcoin's at $10 million a
1:29:29
coin and you have Bitcoin on Coinbase, you don't have
1:29:32
generational wealth. If Bitcoin's at $10 million a
1:29:35
coin and you own black rocks Bitcoin I bit ETF and you trust
1:29:40
a previous Bitcoin hater, you don't have generational wealth.
1:29:43
You only have it if it's in your own custody and you actually
1:29:46
have control over your own Bitcoin.
1:29:49
So again, what's the simple rule of Bitcoin kiss?
1:29:53
Keep it simple, stupid. Again, learn from mine and
1:29:56
Chad's mistakes. Just look after your Bitcoin in
1:29:59
the world like like it is generational wealth today.
1:30:01
That would be my biggest message there.
1:30:05
Love it. Wow.
1:30:06
Preach. Preach.
1:30:07
Hold on some horn. Hold on.
1:30:09
Yeah. Listen for both of Chad and
1:30:12
Luke, let's go wow, a bit. What a what a show.
1:30:16
You know, we we got super bullish and then actually, you
1:30:19
know, there was some serious signal here at the end of this
1:30:22
show. So man, really appreciate you
1:30:24
coming on, Chad. Actually, Chad, let's let's plug
1:30:27
your socials again. It's been on the show, but it is
1:30:30
a little different than usual. So if people wanted to reach out
1:30:33
to you, maybe they need to brute force their wallets as well.
1:30:37
Where can people get in touch with you?
1:30:40
I'm mostly on nostr and the orange pill app.
1:30:44
I tend to stay away from most of the normal socials.
1:30:50
So if you want to hit me up, you can you can find me on on X as
1:30:53
well or in if you want to put something in the chat.
1:30:58
You know that you're interested to talk to me in this in this
1:31:00
video. I'd be happy to reach out to you
1:31:03
directly on on the YouTube side of things as well, so.
1:31:06
Awesome, awesome guys. So yeah, so reach out to Chad
1:31:09
either on Auster Orange Co-op at Thak TH AK-777.
1:31:14
And then of course, we got Luke here.
1:31:16
Luke, they'll, they'll be seeing you more often here, but plug
1:31:19
your socials real quick and then we'll wrap up today's show.
1:31:23
Yeah, I talk trash on YouTube. That is me.
1:31:26
I I have a Twitter as well. So if you want to roast my dodgy
1:31:29
haircut, you can do that on Twitter or YouTube.
1:31:32
Let's go All right guys, I'm going to pull you behind the
1:31:34
scenes as I wrap up today's show.
1:31:36
All right guys, also let's talk about Bitcoin conference 2025.
1:31:42
We are taking over Vegas. Embrace the game theory.
1:31:46
Make sure you use the promo code simply to get 10% off your
1:31:50
tickets. It is less well, it's you know,
1:31:53
I was going to say less than a month away.
1:31:54
It's a month and a couple of days away, guys.
1:31:56
It's going to be the world's largest Bitcoin event.
1:31:59
And if the price is pumping, it's literally going to be the
1:32:02
the biggest Bitcoin conference yet.
1:32:04
So you want to get out there? We're taking over the Venetian
1:32:06
in Las Vegas again. Scan the QR code and get
1:32:09
yourself a ticket. You don't want to FOMO last
1:32:12
minute. All right, guys, it's your boy
1:32:14
Opti. Niko texted me this morning.
1:32:16
He will be back tomorrow. So we'll be back for a Friday
1:32:20
show at our normal programming. And of course, come back same
1:32:25
time as always. And also I, I do want to plug
1:32:27
our sub stack again. I want you guys go check it out.
1:32:30
We did do a, we're dropping a lot of articles and today we
1:32:34
dropped the new ones right off the press in regards to 21
1:32:38
Capital, what Jack Mahler's and Tether and Cantor Fitzgerald are
1:32:41
doing, kind of showing you what the implications are and, and,
1:32:45
and how big of a news story this actually is.
1:32:47
So, you know, there's been some hate around Jack Mahler's and
1:32:49
partnering with Tether, but I think this is one of those
1:32:52
defining moves that we'll look back on and be like it was so
1:32:55
obvious. Anyways, this is your house for
1:32:57
today, Opti, and we will be back tomorrow for another episode.
1:33:02
Peace out. Have a good one.
1:33:04
Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
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1:33:10
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