Latest / The David Rubenstein Show / Bridgewater's Ray Dalio
Transcript
- 0:03Speaker 1: Of the past several decades, one of the most successful
- 0:05Speaker 1: hedge fund investors in the world has been Ray Dalio.
- 0:08Speaker 1: Ray Dalio has built Bridgewater and the largest single hedge
- 0:11Speaker 1: fund in the world, managing more than a hundred billion dollars.
- 0:14Speaker 1: He's also an accomplished author. In his most recent book,
- 0:17Speaker 1: The Changing World Order, talks about the rising China and
- 0:21Speaker 1: the sinking United States. Had a chance to talk to
- 0:23Speaker 1: him recently about that book and many other things relating
- 0:26Speaker 1: to the investment world. Ray, thank you very much for
- 0:29Speaker 1: coming and uh for writing this book. We're gonna talk
- 0:31Speaker 1: about this principally this evening. UM. I wanted to start though,
- 0:35Speaker 1: by asking you, uh this. You're running the largest hedge
- 0:38Speaker 1: fund in the world, more than a d fifty billion dollars.
- 0:42Speaker 1: How do you have time to write books when you
- 0:44Speaker 1: were and running that hedge fund. I didn't write either
- 0:48Speaker 1: of those books. Really, what I did was this book
- 0:52Speaker 1: was UM. In order to understand what was going on today,
- 0:55Speaker 1: I needed to do a study, right, and what I
- 0:59Speaker 1: experienced in life many times before is that the surprises
- 1:02Speaker 1: that happened to me were things that never happened in
- 1:05Speaker 1: my lifetime, but happened many times in history. When you
- 1:08Speaker 1: read the book as I have, and I enjoyed it.
- 1:10Speaker 1: It took me a couple of sittings to get through
- 1:12Speaker 1: because it's a lot of detail in here. Um. You
- 1:15Speaker 1: have a lot of historians that help you because a
- 1:17Speaker 1: lot of history in here. History. I didn't know you
- 1:20Speaker 1: have histories. I'm so lucky because I get to speak
- 1:24Speaker 1: to so many people who are historians, who are practitioners,
- 1:30Speaker 1: you know, people in different countries, Henry Kissinger, Graham, Alice In,
- 1:35Speaker 1: you know, just scientists and so on, and then historians.
- 1:39Speaker 1: So and then I have a fabulous research team. So
- 1:42Speaker 1: I go into this learning immersion, UM and then UM,
- 1:46Speaker 1: and I iterate with it. I show them what I've got,
- 1:49Speaker 1: They come back and that's the process. Okay. So you
- 1:52Speaker 1: have in here people who have said good things about
- 1:55Speaker 1: the book, including a number of Treasury secretaries Hank Paulson,
- 1:59Speaker 1: Tim Geitner. Are Summers hard to get three Treasury secretaries
- 2:02Speaker 1: agree on anything, but you did. You also have very
- 2:04Speaker 1: favorable comments about the book from Henry Kissinger and Bill Gates.
- 2:07Speaker 1: You know both of them, who's smarter? Well, I think, um,
- 2:15Speaker 1: I think that they would say they each would say
- 2:18Speaker 1: the other guy, and I think I would say that, um,
- 2:23Speaker 1: each in their own ways. Okay, so boy, you should
- 2:26Speaker 1: go into politics or to pose. Okay, your view is
- 2:29Speaker 1: there are three big cycles in history. It's not fair. Yeah.
- 2:33Speaker 1: I came with the three things that are happening today,
- 2:36Speaker 1: and then I found that there are really five, but
- 2:39Speaker 1: the three three big ones. Yeah, alright, so let's go
- 2:41Speaker 1: through the first cycle. The first cycle is when economy
- 2:44Speaker 1: comes together gets wealthy. People are building up the economy
- 2:48Speaker 1: and eventually they build it up so much they borrow
- 2:50Speaker 1: more money and maybe they should and they dilute their currency.
- 2:53Speaker 1: Is that fair? Yeah? I could do it in a
- 2:55Speaker 1: quicker way. Quicker than that, Well, excuse me, better than that?
- 2:59Speaker 1: How Now, um, there is um, there's a new water,
- 3:07Speaker 1: there's a there's usually some fight between the left and
- 3:10Speaker 1: the right, or it could be foreign countries and whatever
- 3:13Speaker 1: new water. And then when that begins, it's sort of
- 3:15Speaker 1: a great equalizer. And capitalism is how fantastic enabler because
- 3:22Speaker 1: what it does is it gives people who may not
- 3:24Speaker 1: have anything, who have good ideas capital so they get
- 3:27Speaker 1: the resources to pursue that. And that's a fabulous thing.
- 3:31Speaker 1: And then as it rises over a period of time,
- 3:34Speaker 1: you'll see debt to income ratios rise and so on,
- 3:37Speaker 1: because everybody gets more funded because debt is buying power
- 3:41Speaker 1: and everybody wants more buying power. And then also you
- 3:44Speaker 1: see it naturally UM distributes wealth unequally, and it distributes
- 3:49Speaker 1: opportunity on equally, so UM as that wealth gaps rise
- 3:55Speaker 1: and widen. And then also because it's opportunity, parents and
- 4:00Speaker 1: who have wealthy parents can educate their children in an
- 4:03Speaker 1: unfair let's say, an unequal way relative to others. And
- 4:07Speaker 1: so but it over it gets overly indebted. And then
- 4:11Speaker 1: because all this buying power which comes in the form
- 4:13Speaker 1: of debt as somebody else's assets, then what happens is
- 4:18Speaker 1: UM then you lower interest rates. You try to stimulate it.
- 4:21Speaker 1: So for example, since every cyclical peak and every cyclical
- 4:26Speaker 1: trough and interest rates was lower than the one before it,
- 4:29Speaker 1: so that they can stimulate more debt. And then when
- 4:31Speaker 1: you get to zero interest rates, that doesn't work. So
- 4:34Speaker 1: they have to print money and they buy money to
- 4:37Speaker 1: keep get that pile going up, and that creates the cycle. Okay,
- 4:42Speaker 1: so there's part of that cycle, which is a capital
- 4:45Speaker 1: markets or UH. And then, by the way, this exists
- 4:48Speaker 1: almost everywhere. And then with that, and then you see
- 4:51Speaker 1: the monetization of debt and so on, and with that
- 4:54Speaker 1: there are also conflicts, conflicts that are the wealth conflicts,
- 4:59Speaker 1: and related to that the political left and the political
- 5:02Speaker 1: right and there, and that creates the dynamic that we're
- 5:04Speaker 1: talking about now you're signing your book. Two examples where
- 5:07Speaker 1: this has happened before. One is in the Netherlands, where
- 5:10Speaker 1: the Dutch economy ultimately they had the only reserve currency,
- 5:14Speaker 1: at least in Western Europe, the guilder, and they did
- 5:16Speaker 1: some of what you now say we're doing. Is that right, Yeah,
- 5:19Speaker 1: the same patterns over and over again. They had in
- 5:21Speaker 1: the beginning, big education, they want a war. Then they
- 5:25Speaker 1: became very competitive. They went out in the world taking
- 5:27Speaker 1: their goods and they built ships that were the best
- 5:30Speaker 1: ships around the world, so they can go anywhere in
- 5:32Speaker 1: the world. They brought their arms with them and they
- 5:35Speaker 1: made a fortune. And with that they brought their currency.
- 5:38Speaker 1: And as they bring their currency, because it's a world
- 5:41Speaker 1: currency of reserve currency, others want to own it. And
- 5:45Speaker 1: because others want to own it, because that's buying power,
- 5:48Speaker 1: it's the common wamp them. And then because of that um,
- 5:52Speaker 1: then they lend it to the Dutch. So in other words,
- 5:55Speaker 1: Americans get lent money because others want a whole dollars,
- 5:59Speaker 1: and then that allows us, that's the exorbitant privilege, to
- 6:02Speaker 1: get more and more in debt, and then what happens
- 6:05Speaker 1: is they lose their competitiveness. The British built came along
- 6:09Speaker 1: and copied from the Dutch and found oh, they can
- 6:12Speaker 1: make ships better and cheaper, and then they became the competitors.
- 6:16Speaker 1: And then as the competitors are operating, they take market
- 6:19Speaker 1: share away, quite similar to lots of technology companies and
- 6:23Speaker 1: what's going on now. And then what happens is then
- 6:27Speaker 1: they get more in debt, and then they have the
- 6:29Speaker 1: other cycle that's operating, and then you have the challenges
- 6:33Speaker 1: of that. They had the Dutch, they typified by the
- 6:36Speaker 1: Dutch tool bulb craze where people were spending a lot
- 6:39Speaker 1: of guilders buying toil bulbs. Right, So that imploded and
- 6:43Speaker 1: the British came in and they built a big economy,
- 6:46Speaker 1: and then they kind of went south a bit. They
- 6:48Speaker 1: had the same and then we came along the United
- 6:51Speaker 1: States became the biggest economy world around eighteen seventy and
- 6:54Speaker 1: since World War Two we've been the dominant economy. So
- 6:57Speaker 1: now we have a lot of debt. You'd say, yeah, trillion,
- 7:02Speaker 1: good of that, So how are we going to pay
- 7:05Speaker 1: off at that? By the way, well is the only way.
- 7:09Speaker 1: In the end, it's always print the money. You know,
- 7:12Speaker 1: it's always print the money because you see the one
- 7:15Speaker 1: man's debts or another man's assets. And so if you're
- 7:20Speaker 1: holding a bond and you receive a you don't get
- 7:24Speaker 1: compensated for inflation. Let's say people think cash is a
- 7:27Speaker 1: low investment, low risk investment. Well, they're earning no interest,
- 7:31Speaker 1: and when you have a seven percent or five percent inflation,
- 7:35Speaker 1: you lose five percent of your buying power. Or if
- 7:37Speaker 1: you're owning a bond, you have the same thing. And
- 7:40Speaker 1: so what happens is not only is there the debt
- 7:43Speaker 1: that is coming from the new debt created to run
- 7:47Speaker 1: the deficits, but there become sellers of that debt because
- 7:51Speaker 1: the owner as an asset, it's not a good asset.
- 7:54Speaker 1: And then there's so much selling. And what that means
- 7:57Speaker 1: is that you either have to interest rates have got
- 7:59Speaker 1: to go up, or and then that grinds things down
- 8:03Speaker 1: to a close or what they do is they have
- 8:06Speaker 1: to print money. And so the history of all of
- 8:09Speaker 1: these cycles is that the coffers are empty because you
- 8:14Speaker 1: can't continue to spend more than you earn and give
- 8:16Speaker 1: it to somebody expect them to like it, and then
- 8:19Speaker 1: you devalue it and that becomes the cycle. And so
- 8:22Speaker 1: you see the classic cycle of the ingredient is um
- 8:27Speaker 1: the cycle I'm talking about in terms of supply to man.
- 8:29Speaker 1: And so what you want to do is presumably let
- 8:32Speaker 1: people know this is occurring. So maybe they could take
- 8:35Speaker 1: action by letting their congressman or governors know something about
- 8:38Speaker 1: this or not. Well, I think there are two two things.
- 8:41Speaker 1: What you can do to make a better side in
- 8:43Speaker 1: your contribution, but also how you can individually take care
- 8:46Speaker 1: of yourself in a situation that might be difficult. Okay,
- 8:51Speaker 1: so let's finish on the third part of the cycle.
- 8:53Speaker 1: The third part of the cycle is somebody's rising up.
- 8:56Speaker 1: And right now you would say China is rising up?
- 8:58Speaker 1: Is that correct? It there's just numbers and you look
- 9:01Speaker 1: at it and okay, so if I want to do
- 9:04Speaker 1: something about it, and I want to live in a
- 9:06Speaker 1: time when China is not rising up so much, and
- 9:08Speaker 1: were better off in the US economy. What should I do?
- 9:11Speaker 1: Should I lobby my members of Congress not to print
- 9:13Speaker 1: so much money? What should I do about it? If anything? Um, well,
- 9:17Speaker 1: again it's the cycles. I think. If I think, if
- 9:20Speaker 1: we go back and we look at history, there are
- 9:24Speaker 1: three main things that you can do. Okay, first as
- 9:29Speaker 1: a society individually and then collectively. Um, how do you
- 9:33Speaker 1: earn more money than you spend? And how do you
- 9:36Speaker 1: build a balance sheet that has more assets than liabilities.
- 9:40Speaker 1: That's a healthy and so keeping that in mind, the
- 9:43Speaker 1: second is um internal conflict or cooperation? Can you have
- 9:50Speaker 1: internal cooperation because you realize what the consequences are? So
- 9:57Speaker 1: I think that in the two twenty for elections, there
- 10:01Speaker 1: is a reasonable chance that neither party will accept losing
- 10:04Speaker 1: the elections. And that is something that means that democracy
- 10:08Speaker 1: or a type of civil war of sorts could develop
- 10:12Speaker 1: in a way. This is realistic. I'm not being um
- 10:16Speaker 1: exaggerated by that. And when one looks at those types
- 10:19Speaker 1: of things, there is a worry that one should have
- 10:23Speaker 1: about the divisiveness and what it means for each other.
- 10:26Speaker 1: And the same is true internationally. So basically, if you
- 10:30Speaker 1: anybody who has gone into wars this through history. Um,
- 10:35Speaker 1: the people who are the most convinced that that's the
- 10:38Speaker 1: thing to do all regretted going into wars because of
- 10:41Speaker 1: what wars are like. So the things that I would
- 10:44Speaker 1: hope to convey is, first of all, what are the arcs?
- 10:47Speaker 1: Is that right or wrong? In the arcs measured not opinionated.
- 10:51Speaker 1: Just look at those measurements so that you could see that.
- 10:54Speaker 1: And then as we think about it, like I have
- 10:57Speaker 1: a principle, if you worry, you don't have worry, and
- 11:00Speaker 1: if you don't worry, you need to worry. And what
- 11:03Speaker 1: I mean by that is if you worry and you
- 11:05Speaker 1: start to think what this direction could be and what
- 11:09Speaker 1: it's like, then um, maybe you deal with the things
- 11:12Speaker 1: that prevent those worries. Where if you don't worry, maybe
- 11:16Speaker 1: you get into trouble without worrying or with a confidence
- 11:19Speaker 1: that there are things we can do. The world has
- 11:22Speaker 1: now more resources than it has ever had, and there
- 11:25Speaker 1: are things that can be done. Now you're managing a
- 11:27Speaker 1: hundred and fifty billion plus about them? And why is
- 11:30Speaker 1: it explained this to me? I really don't know the answer.
- 11:33Speaker 1: Hedge funds seem to come and go sometimes they're hot,
- 11:35Speaker 1: sometimes they're cold. Sometimes they go out of business. You've
- 11:38Speaker 1: been in business for almost half a century and you've
- 11:41Speaker 1: got a hundred fifty billion. What did you do that
- 11:43Speaker 1: nobody else has been able to do. What we were
- 11:45Speaker 1: able to do, UM was to be able to structure
- 11:49Speaker 1: portfolios in a way that we're UM better in terms
- 11:54Speaker 1: of the returns, risks and correlations of our investors. So
- 12:00Speaker 1: to give you that an idea, in other words, UM,
- 12:04Speaker 1: you could balance things in a way. I could take
- 12:06Speaker 1: different alpha's, different bets in different markets, and I could
- 12:11Speaker 1: carry that and put that in a fund called pure Alpha.
- 12:14Speaker 1: Then I could take different asset classes and put that
- 12:17Speaker 1: in a fund which was called pure beta. And then
- 12:20Speaker 1: we could engineer it for the customers risk levels. Do
- 12:24Speaker 1: you want it at twelve percent volve, volatility eight percent involved?
- 12:29Speaker 1: And then they would whatever benchmark they wanted we could
- 12:32Speaker 1: put the alpha on top of, so they could say
- 12:36Speaker 1: I want the SMP five hundred plus a six percent
- 12:40Speaker 1: ball operating that way. I know it all sounds complicated,
- 12:43Speaker 1: but we could design and structure things to their liking
- 12:47Speaker 1: that would produce an attractive, rich risk in return that
- 12:51Speaker 1: also was not correlated with their other investments. You wrote
- 12:54Speaker 1: a book a few years ago called Principles that sold
- 12:58Speaker 1: millions of copies. Usually books in the business world on
- 13:01Speaker 1: sell millions of copies, and millions of them were sold
- 13:03Speaker 1: in China as well. Um, what is it that was
- 13:07Speaker 1: in that book that was so exciting to people? When
- 13:10Speaker 1: I would make decisions, I would not just make the decisions.
- 13:15Speaker 1: I would think about, what are the criteria that I
- 13:18Speaker 1: would use to make the decisions, and I'd write them down,
- 13:21Speaker 1: those are the principles. And then in our culture, which
- 13:25Speaker 1: is this idea of meritocracy, we would say that those
- 13:28Speaker 1: criteria good or bad, and then we would try to
- 13:31Speaker 1: put them into algorithms and equations. And so I would
- 13:36Speaker 1: do that almost like a diary kind of thing, and
- 13:38Speaker 1: I would see the same things happening over and over again,
- 13:41Speaker 1: and the next time it happened, I would go to
- 13:43Speaker 1: the principle, and we could together go to our principles.
- 13:46Speaker 1: And so it accumulated that over a period of time,
- 13:49Speaker 1: and they were practical, they're not theoretical principles, and people
- 13:53Speaker 1: seem to find the valuable. Now it is said that
- 13:56Speaker 1: you use these principles in your firm, and you operate
- 13:59Speaker 1: the firm and in the principles right more or less,
- 14:02Speaker 1: but it's very constant self examination. Employees have to be
- 14:06Speaker 1: self examined by their peers. You're self examined by your peers, right,
- 14:10Speaker 1: or other people in the firm. It's hard to get
- 14:13Speaker 1: people to want to do this and where they be
- 14:15Speaker 1: examined so intently over the years, and it's so logical,
- 14:19Speaker 1: But that doesn't mean everybody wants to do it. Um,
- 14:23Speaker 1: it's um so in one sentence, it's an idea meritocracy.
- 14:27Speaker 1: You know, the best ideas win out from wherever they
- 14:30Speaker 1: come from, in which the goals are meaningful work and
- 14:33Speaker 1: meaningful relationships. That we're in it together through radical truthfulness
- 14:39Speaker 1: and radical transparency. So if we disagree, that's a good thing.
- 14:43Speaker 1: It's no reason to have anger and to have the
- 14:46Speaker 1: art of thoughtful disagreement and examine how do you scientifically
- 14:50Speaker 1: find out what's true? How do you test things? And
- 14:53Speaker 1: so on? And that's been essential to our success. So
- 14:57Speaker 1: you know, you're very intense. You're obviously into the numbers,
- 14:59Speaker 1: but you're so big into transcendental meditation. Right, Yeah, that's
- 15:03Speaker 1: helped me a lot. It's been probably the biggest whatever
- 15:07Speaker 1: success I've had, maybe more attributable to transcendental How did
- 15:10Speaker 1: you get into transcendental meditation? The Beatles help you or something? Yeah? Yeah, Um,
- 15:17Speaker 1: it was exactly that. In ninety eight the Beatles went
- 15:21Speaker 1: to India and they meditated, and then I heard about it.
- 15:26Speaker 1: And then in nineteen sixty nine in New York you could, Um,
- 15:31Speaker 1: you can bring some flowers and you could do that
- 15:33Speaker 1: and you could learn how to meditate, and and wow, um,
- 15:38Speaker 1: I recommend it's the best thing gift. I could do
- 15:40Speaker 1: it every day or almost every almost. Yeah, I try
- 15:44Speaker 1: to do it every day. I try to do it
- 15:45Speaker 1: about twice a day. And if I could take a
- 15:48Speaker 1: second to describe it, um um, what it is, um
- 15:53Speaker 1: is it frees your mind of thought, and it takes
- 15:56Speaker 1: you from a conscious state into your subconscious, and your
- 16:01Speaker 1: subconscious is where creativity comes from and equanimity and all
- 16:07Speaker 1: of that. Like if you're calm and great ideas come
- 16:10Speaker 1: to you, and when you have that equanimity, then you're
- 16:13Speaker 1: as you're approaching everything. Things are just the way they
- 16:16Speaker 1: are and you have to deal with them. And it's
- 16:18Speaker 1: a little like being you know, in the uh Ninja movies,
- 16:21Speaker 1: it's a little bit like being the ninja, and everything
- 16:24Speaker 1: seems slower and you can handle it better. And so
- 16:27Speaker 1: and you align your subconscious which is where the motions
- 16:31Speaker 1: and also inspirations come from, with your conscious mind. And
- 16:35Speaker 1: when they're aligned and you have that equanimity, it's a
- 16:38Speaker 1: great thing. You're gonna write a book on transitentle meditation.
- 16:42Speaker 1: Let me ask you this. The average person watching right
- 16:44Speaker 1: now probably doesn't have a hundred and fifty billion dollars
- 16:47Speaker 1: to manage the investment of. So what can the average
- 16:52Speaker 1: person do to invest reasonably? Well, well, you know, um,
- 16:56Speaker 1: like I didn't have any money, and I remember the
- 16:59Speaker 1: cycle and what it was is I would start to think, um,
- 17:04Speaker 1: how much money do I have to how many weeks,
- 17:09Speaker 1: months and then years can I take care of myself
- 17:12Speaker 1: and my family? And I would calculate that I would
- 17:15Speaker 1: be at okay, fifty two years if no income was
- 17:18Speaker 1: going to come in, And then I would start to think, um,
- 17:22Speaker 1: and then if I'm holding a portfolio in something, maybe
- 17:25Speaker 1: I could lose half, so I better cut that number
- 17:27Speaker 1: in half. And then I start to think of what
- 17:30Speaker 1: are my uses of the money, what do I need
- 17:32Speaker 1: to do? And I would think about how do I
- 17:34Speaker 1: immunize that? And you start and you build like that,
- 17:38Speaker 1: and you know how to save and and saving you
- 17:41Speaker 1: know things like don't put it into cash deposits that
- 17:45Speaker 1: get eroded by inflation and taxes and so on, and
- 17:48Speaker 1: you start to develop it. And the thing that you
- 17:51Speaker 1: can do, the most important thing you could do, is
- 17:53Speaker 1: not be in cash and and those deposits, particularly now
- 17:58Speaker 1: when there's such negative real rates. And to have a
- 18:01Speaker 1: well diversified portfolio. And that well diversified portfolio that's a
- 18:06Speaker 1: whole subject of what does that mean and how to
- 18:08Speaker 1: do it, But it's a well diversified portfolio of not
- 18:12Speaker 1: just asset classes, but of uh countries, of um uh
- 18:19Speaker 1: you know, of of different thing currencies, diversified. But let's
- 18:22Speaker 1: let me ask you an average person who isn't you know,
- 18:26Speaker 1: a billionaire. Should they expect to get a great return
- 18:29Speaker 1: over on their money of five percent a year? Is
- 18:31Speaker 1: that a good target? Six eight percent? What do you
- 18:34Speaker 1: think is a reasonable target for somebody doesn't want to
- 18:36Speaker 1: take undue risks? Well, nowadays the structure of the markets
- 18:42Speaker 1: and where everything is priced um if um and done
- 18:46Speaker 1: the normal way, we'll give you probably a return in
- 18:50Speaker 1: the vicinity of with a lot of risk around it. Uh,
- 18:55Speaker 1: maybe in the vicinity of four percent three three and
- 19:00Speaker 1: three percent three four, Okay, something that might not equal inflation,
- 19:05Speaker 1: probably would be very close. And then you have to
- 19:07Speaker 1: pay taxes on it um because there are so many
- 19:11Speaker 1: financial assets. But one thing you can, they'll send you
- 19:14Speaker 1: more money. As we talk today, the stock market in
- 19:18Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks has been correcting, if that's
- 19:20Speaker 1: the right verb, and a lot of the errors out
- 19:23Speaker 1: of the so called bubble. Should people be selling everything
- 19:27Speaker 1: and getting out of the market now because the markets
- 19:28Speaker 1: are going down? Or is just the time to buy?
- 19:31Speaker 1: First of all, I'm not here to give a lot
- 19:34Speaker 1: of advice, but I'll give you the following thoughts. We
- 19:36Speaker 1: won't tell anybody, just give us, okay, just just on
- 19:39Speaker 1: our own. Uh. What's happened is the they produced a
- 19:44Speaker 1: lot of debt and gave out a lot of money,
- 19:45Speaker 1: and so everybody's got money. And it's also very easy
- 19:48Speaker 1: to borrow money to buy things. And as a result,
- 19:51Speaker 1: if you create much more buying power, then you create
- 19:54Speaker 1: goods and services. You've got a lot much more inflation.
- 19:58Speaker 1: And the Federal Reserve has been behind the curve slower
- 20:01Speaker 1: to tighten monetary policy, and as a result, we're now
- 20:05Speaker 1: starting to see the rise in interest rates to be
- 20:09Speaker 1: able to deal with that. As that happens, all assets
- 20:13Speaker 1: compete with each other. So now that free money is
- 20:17Speaker 1: still going to be cheap money, but it's going to
- 20:19Speaker 1: be a bit higher, so interest rates. Let's say bond
- 20:23Speaker 1: yields have gone up about one percent. Now you take
- 20:27Speaker 1: that and you adjust everything is the present value of
- 20:30Speaker 1: future cash flows. But it means that that interest rate
- 20:33Speaker 1: goes up a percent. That means all the other assets
- 20:36Speaker 1: have to adjust. We're in a process of making that
- 20:39Speaker 1: kind of adjustment. That means the days that we've had before,
- 20:43Speaker 1: the easy days where they not money on you and
- 20:45Speaker 1: you don't have much inflation and you don't have much tightness,
- 20:48Speaker 1: those are past and now we're in a different kind
- 20:51Speaker 1: of part of the cycle. How do you foresee crypto
- 20:54Speaker 1: impacting the world order? Uh? I think it's interesting. I
- 20:59Speaker 1: have a tiny percentage of my portfolio wanted to to diversify.
- 21:03Speaker 1: But it is a very vulnerable incident because they can
- 21:06Speaker 1: track who is operating on it. It can be tracked.
- 21:09Speaker 1: It will be outlawed, probably by different governments, and in
- 21:13Speaker 1: terms of its size, it has issues. So I think
- 21:16Speaker 1: too much attention is spent spent on um crypto or
- 21:21Speaker 1: somebody might be a gold bug, or somebody might be
- 21:24Speaker 1: I don't know they hold gems or whatever they do.
- 21:26Speaker 1: But I think that we're now in an era where
- 21:29Speaker 1: we're going to have different types of money. We're going
- 21:32Speaker 1: to question money is a medium of exchange, but it's
- 21:35Speaker 1: also a store hold of wealth, and we're going to
- 21:37Speaker 1: be questioning what are the right store holds of wealth
- 21:41Speaker 1: in in the value And you're going to see around
- 21:43Speaker 1: the world, not only the digital versions of that take
- 21:47Speaker 1: place in many forms. You're going to see other forms
- 21:50Speaker 1: of that competition. I think in the year's at we
- 21:53Speaker 1: are not investing, and you're not transcendental meditating, and you're
- 21:58Speaker 1: not writing books and doing philanthropy. What are you doing?
- 22:01Speaker 1: You have any Outsidember Number one is my grandkids? Okay,
- 22:05Speaker 1: my my kids, my my family of course, um and
- 22:09Speaker 1: one of the greatest blessings in life that whenever can
- 22:13Speaker 1: possibly have his one. How many grandchildren you have? I have? Ford? Now,
- 22:16Speaker 1: what do they call you? Papa? Not Mr Dahlia or
- 22:19Speaker 1: something like that. Thanks for listening to hear more of
- 22:24Speaker 1: my interviews. You can subscribe and download my podcast on Spotify, Apple,
- 22:29Speaker 1: or wherever you listen