Latest / Inside Politics / Cyclone Trump, Alfred and the forces sweeping an election awry

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Cyclone Trump, Alfred and the forces sweeping an election awry · Inside Politics

0:00
S1: From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
0:02
S1: This is inside politics. I'm Jacqueline Maley, it's Friday, March 7th.
0:07
S2: You're gambling with World War three. We stand with Ukraine.
0:11
S3: President Zelensky is a modern day hero. He's a war hero.
0:16
S1: Well, the world order is rocky and it's looking to
0:19
S1: get even rockier. US President Donald Trump has had a
0:23
S1: spectacular falling out with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and he
0:28
S1: has ended US military aid to Ukraine. This puts him
0:32
S1: completely at odds with his European allies. Meanwhile, Trump is
0:36
S1: waging a trade war and China is cruising warships off
0:39
S1: the Australian coast. The conflict in Gaza remains unresolved. So
0:45
S1: how will all this international uncertainty affect our election campaign?
0:50
S1: How much will the rest of the world intrude upon
0:52
S1: that campaign? And how can our domestic leaders keep focus
0:56
S1: on ordinary voting Australians when there is so much else
0:59
S1: going on around us? For this episode, we welcome our
1:03
S1: chief political correspondent, David Crowe, as usual, and also our
1:06
S1: national security guru correspondent Matthew Knott. Welcome, gentlemen.
1:12
S4: Hi, everyone.
1:13
S5: Hello to both of you.
1:14
S1: Matt, I want to start with you. Following Donald Trump's
1:17
S1: extraordinary clash with President Volodymyr Zelensky last Friday, what was
1:21
S1: the reaction in Canberra? Was there widespread sort of acknowledgement
1:24
S1: that this really changes the game in terms of our
1:26
S1: foreign policy settings, changes the world order? Or do people
1:31
S1: just shrug their shoulders?
1:32
S4: I know, definitely not a shrug of the shoulders. I
1:35
S4: think this is very much in the category of shocking,
1:38
S4: but not surprising. In terms of Trump's approach to Ukraine,
1:42
S4: it was pretty clearly spelled out well ahead of Election
1:45
S4: Day how he felt about it. He promised that he
1:48
S4: would end the war on day one of his administration.
1:52
S4: And now reality is coming home to to bite. But
1:56
S4: it was still incredible and alarming to see that a
2:02
S4: white House press conference that went so badly off the rails.
2:05
S6: I think we've seen enough. What do you think? What's
2:07
S6: this negotiation? This is going to be great television. I
2:11
S6: will say that.
2:13
S4: People in Canberra are policymakers. Politicians were just as shocked,
2:17
S4: as alarmed as everyone else, clearly showing that the US
2:22
S4: is essentially abandoning a Ukraine. Our closest partner is stepping away.
2:29
S4: Europe is having to step up and play more of
2:31
S4: a role. Where does that leave a country like Australia
2:34
S4: that is not on the continent, that is, that has
2:37
S4: provided important support to Ukraine, but is not a key
2:41
S4: player in the conflict. It went further also to show
2:46
S4: how unreliable America has come and lots of thoughts about
2:51
S4: how we would be affected. You know, if we can
2:54
S4: rely ourselves on a Trump administration.
2:56
S1: Mhm. David, what was the sort of public reaction from
3:00
S1: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and the opposition leader Peter Dutton
3:03
S1: following that falling out.
3:05
S5: I think that both of them have really downplayed the impact,
3:11
S5: and I think their public remarks really are at odds
3:14
S5: with what we can all see in front of our
3:17
S5: very eyes, which is this, you know, really startling message
3:22
S5: from Donald Trump and from Washington, DC about alliances. They've
3:26
S5: turned their back on Ukraine. Donald Trump seems quite sympathetic
3:32
S5: to Vladimir Putin, the Russian president of all people. The
3:35
S5: response from Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese is not to
3:40
S5: amplify this anxiety about America's direction in the world, and
3:44
S5: what that means for the American alliance.
3:46
S7: Well, I am responsible for Australia's foreign policy. Australia's foreign
3:52
S7: policy is determined, determined by Australia.
3:56
S5: We've seen the government sort of talk about what it's
3:59
S5: doing with the Aukus pact on nuclear submarines, for instance,
4:02
S5: to show that they're still on course. Peter Dutton and
4:05
S5: Anthony Albanese both expressed strong support for the US alliance.
4:09
S5: But at the same time there are differences opening up
4:12
S5: in terms of how they handle this US alliance and
4:14
S5: how they respond to Donald Trump. And we know that
4:17
S5: this is going to be a factor in the election campaign,
4:19
S5: because when we asked voters in our most recent resolve
4:23
S5: political monitor about responding to Donald Trump, a lot of
4:27
S5: Australians don't like some of the Donald Trump policies, but
4:30
S5: they think that Peter Dutton would be a better prime
4:32
S5: minister to handle Donald Trump. So this is a live
4:35
S5: issue during the election campaign, not the most compelling issue
4:39
S5: when you put it next to things like health and education,
4:42
S5: but still a factor.
4:43
S1: On Tuesday, it was reported following that sort of catastrophic
4:47
S1: falling out in the white House on Friday, it was
4:50
S1: then reported that the US had suspended all military aid
4:53
S1: to Ukraine. And then following that news, Anthony Albanese said
4:57
S1: he would be willing to deploy Australian troops to Ukraine. David,
5:01
S1: how big a force are we talking? Under what conditions?
5:04
S1: You know, how sort of fulsome was that offer?
5:07
S5: It was a very general will consider it kind of statement.
5:13
S7: We're open to consideration of any proposals going forward.
5:18
S5: And that's interesting in the sense that previous statements had
5:22
S5: kind of said that this wasn't something the Australian government
5:25
S5: was envisaging. So Anthony Albanese opened the door to it.
5:29
S5: But our peacekeeping deployments around the world are not measured
5:34
S5: in hundreds of soldiers. They're measured in dozens. And there
5:39
S5: are none in hotspots quite like Ukraine. I think we
5:42
S5: have some in Cyprus, for instance. So it was a very,
5:45
S5: you know, general offer. But I think the important thing
5:49
S5: is that it meant that what Anthony Albanese was saying
5:52
S5: was supportive of the message from the British prime minister,
5:55
S5: Keir Starmer, and the French president, Emmanuel Macron, who are
5:59
S5: developing this idea of a peacekeeping force. If there can
6:03
S5: be a truce in Ukraine. I mean, we're nowhere near
6:07
S5: a truce at the moment. We're nowhere near a truce.
6:09
S5: So it's a highly hypothetical scenario. But the message from
6:13
S5: Anthony Albanese lined us up with those European powers.
6:16
S1: In contrast, Matt, the opposition leader, Peter Dutton, ruled out
6:20
S1: sending troops to Ukraine. So, I mean, what do you
6:22
S1: make of that sort of split? It's quite a clear split,
6:24
S1: as David has just said. Albanese is lining himself up
6:28
S1: with the sort of European allies. Dutton is very clearly not.
6:33
S4: Yes, it is an interesting split, as David says, over
6:36
S4: quite a hypothetical scenario. You could imagine this going the
6:41
S4: other way. Peter Dutton has been a very strong on
6:45
S4: the issue of Ukraine rhetorically. He actually came out and said.
6:48
S3: No, I was disappointed by the scenes out of the
6:50
S3: white House. And I believe that President Zelensky requires the
6:55
S3: support of European countries of the United States.
6:57
S4: He went further than Anthony Albanese in terms of taking
7:01
S4: on Trump directly over Ukraine. But on this, he's said
7:06
S4: clearly that this isn't our fight. It's Europe's job to
7:10
S4: take up the responsibility. We don't know how big Australia's
7:14
S4: contribution would be to any peacekeeping force, but people are
7:18
S4: saying that what we're talking about here may not be
7:21
S4: a peacekeeping force like we are talking about in a
7:24
S4: place like Cyprus, the way Keir Starmer is talking about it,
7:28
S4: the British prime minister, he's talking about boots on the ground,
7:32
S4: jets in the air. It's perhaps more of an active,
7:35
S4: essentially fighting force potentially, rather than just observing and helping
7:41
S4: to ensure this wonderful peace. Whether we're ever going to
7:46
S4: get there, there are a lot of people in the
7:48
S4: military space, you know, former army commanders and whatnot that
7:53
S4: you'll find who are saying essentially our military is really
7:56
S4: stretched at full capacity in terms of what we're trying
7:59
S4: to do in our region. The Army has been being
8:03
S4: cut back in recent times to try and reprioritise towards
8:07
S4: the Navy, towards Aukus submarines. We've seen the Chinese ship
8:12
S4: circumnavigating the continent. So many people in the defence space
8:16
S4: say we don't have big resources to be sending significant
8:20
S4: numbers of Australian troops over to Europe right now, in
8:24
S4: a way, backing up what Peter Dutton is saying. But
8:28
S4: other people have argued, well, look, we're dealing with Vladimir Putin.
8:32
S4: We're in a big negotiation here. We need to keep
8:35
S4: him off balance. And why not say that we're open
8:37
S4: to contributing to a force like this as we try
8:42
S4: and get a piece here that doesn't just give Putin
8:46
S4: everything he wants?
8:47
S1: David, last week we had Chinese warships off the Australian coast.
8:50
S1: We've got a trade war that Trump is waging with Canada,
8:53
S1: China and Mexico. Pretty much the whole world, possibly even us.
8:56
S1: There's a lot of international distractions around for the upcoming
8:59
S1: election campaign. I just wonder what you think of how much,
9:02
S1: how much of the campaign will focus on these external
9:05
S1: threats and pressures, and how much of it will be domestic?
9:08
S5: I think it it'll still be overwhelmingly domestic. Um, it
9:12
S5: will be about the cost of living. And I think, um,
9:16
S5: there are signals from Peter Dutton that he's got something
9:19
S5: in his back pocket on the cost of living. He
9:21
S5: basically said during one of his appearances during the week,
9:24
S5: we'll have an announcement that'll help households. He's biding his
9:29
S5: time on that for when the campaign begins in earnest.
9:32
S5: The government still has a March 25th budget on its schedule,
9:37
S5: so it can announce more on the cost of living.
9:39
S5: And I think that's where election campaigns go. But I
9:42
S5: think it's very important that the backdrop is global uncertainty,
9:46
S5: economic uncertainty as well as strategic uncertainty, in large part
9:50
S5: because of Donald Trump. Whether it's the tariffs hitting Australian
9:53
S5: industry or it's the concerns about Chinese ships, admittedly not
9:58
S5: Donald Trump's problem or the changes that are happening with
10:02
S5: Europe and Ukraine. Global uncertainty makes security part of the
10:07
S5: election campaign, and I think it will be a factor.
10:11
S5: It is something where the coalition and Peter Dutton have
10:14
S5: an advantage. Uh, voters tend to think of the coalition
10:19
S5: as the party to trust on security and defence, and
10:23
S5: we see that in our polling. So it's something where
10:26
S5: the government's got to make sure it's got a very
10:28
S5: clear message about security, because it will be a factor
10:32
S5: during the campaign.
10:33
S1: Yeah. And I mean, the public does need to be
10:35
S1: reassured on these matters. Matt, how much do you think
10:38
S1: that all of this international danger and uncertainty will affect
10:42
S1: the election campaign, or how will it affect the election campaign?
10:46
S4: Well, just to add in, one more factor that we
10:48
S4: haven't even discussed are the war in Gaza. There's an
10:52
S4: incredibly fragile ceasefire there at the moment that looks like
10:56
S4: it really could fall apart at any moment. The war
11:00
S4: could resume. We've already seen Israel implementing a full on siege,
11:06
S4: not allowing fuel and food to go into the strip.
11:09
S4: So this issue that has dominated and so divided Australia
11:13
S4: for long, could really roar back into prominence on top
11:16
S4: of everything else. It is an interesting divide because I
11:19
S4: think most Australians, the issues they're interested in are cost
11:23
S4: of living, health, education, they're there day to day lives, security.
11:28
S4: But the news cycle and what we're talking about is
11:31
S4: going to be so dominated by the chaos in Washington,
11:35
S4: in Ukraine, if everything's unravelling there in the Middle East,
11:39
S4: it's hard for some of these pretty small bread and
11:42
S4: butter promises. A funding announcement for here, a policy announcement there.
11:47
S4: They're not going to compete with these big issues of
11:50
S4: our time that we're living through. And I think it's
11:53
S4: going to be a fascinating campaign. I don't think there's
11:56
S4: been one in recent times where there's been so many
12:00
S4: foreign policy, so many external issues that could disrupt the campaign.
12:06
S1: Mhm. Yeah, that's a really interesting point because both leaders
12:09
S1: will need to focus as much as they can on
12:11
S1: domestic issues and to wrest back the agenda. But the
12:13
S1: vortex of the international news cycle, and particularly the Trump
12:17
S1: news cycle, is almost impossible to not be sucked into that.
12:29
S1: Getting back to pure domestic policies, in the last week,
12:32
S1: we've seen the PM roll out two pledges, which are
12:34
S1: very much heartland labor stuff. David, we had one on
12:37
S1: Medicare and one on schools funding. Tell us quickly about those.
12:40
S5: The the main Medicare um initiative was the $8.5 billion
12:45
S5: to improve bulk billing at GPS. The aim is to
12:49
S5: make sure that I think as many as 90% of
12:51
S5: people should be able to get bulk billing at GPS
12:54
S5: with this 8.5 billion. There are questions about whether it's enough.
12:57
S5: There are always questions about that, but it's a significant
13:00
S5: contribution to Medicare. There's also money going into urgent care clinics,
13:03
S5: which do seem to be popular. These are clinics funded
13:06
S5: by the federal government that offer an alternative going to
13:09
S5: the emergency department at the hospital. And that's, you know,
13:13
S5: something that helps people in the real world. Um, but
13:17
S5: I think the other big thing that happened was we
13:19
S5: got good economic news. We had an economic boost, in
13:23
S5: a sense, from the national accounts during the week. And
13:26
S5: this showed that there was an end to the per
13:29
S5: capita recession. One of the most cut through lines for
13:32
S5: the coalition has been saying that households are in a
13:35
S5: per capita recession. And we found that that ended, according
13:39
S5: to the figures that came out from the Bureau of
13:41
S5: Statistics on Wednesday. That's really positive for the government and
13:46
S5: got totally lost in all the geopolitical news. So maybe
13:50
S5: a lot of voters might not have even noticed it.
13:53
S5: But it was something the government, you know, was hopeful
13:56
S5: about in terms of launching their election campaign.
13:59
S1: I mean, it's a slightly technical point. It doesn't exactly.
14:02
S1: I mean, I think the growth rate was 0.1 of
14:05
S1: a percentage as opposed to being negative. So, you know,
14:09
S1: it's not a huge win for the government, is it.
14:10
S5: It was it was a better growth number. Well, it
14:15
S5: was a growth number, right? Yeah, but it was extremely small.
14:18
S5: The thing is, the thing is the government does have
14:22
S5: some numbers that that show inflation is falling.
14:26
S1: Yeah.
14:26
S5: It's way down on where it was when they got
14:29
S5: into power. All these things are factors that can help
14:32
S5: the government with an economic message, but it needs sharper
14:35
S5: communications to make a compelling economic message while coping with
14:40
S5: all these, you know, shocks from overseas. It's very challenging
14:44
S5: for the government to actually cut through.
14:47
S1: And also, I mean, it does it accord with people's
14:49
S1: lived experience. You know, they make a set of statistics
14:52
S1: is one thing, but whether or not you feel it
14:54
S1: at the, at the, at the till when you go
14:56
S1: to the supermarket is another matter. We want to talk
15:00
S1: about the coalition, because what have we seen in the
15:02
S1: way of new domestic policies from Dutton over the last
15:05
S1: week or so?
15:06
S4: Uh, you wouldn't say a huge amount. They were extremely
15:09
S4: quick to match the Medicare promise, because I think they
15:13
S4: saw that that was a huge vulnerability, that that is
15:16
S4: very much a labour strength. And they didn't want to
15:19
S4: have any daylight between the government and the opposition. We've
15:23
S4: seen a lot of talk still about cutting the public service.
15:27
S4: You can tell they're not chasing votes in Canberra, because
15:29
S4: we're seeing a lot of activity in this space from
15:32
S4: the coalition about cutting public service numbers and also about
15:36
S4: getting them back to work. That there are too many
15:39
S4: public servants working from home. That was a policy announcement
15:43
S4: this week, but I wouldn't call it a very fulsome
15:46
S4: policy agenda. So far, what they would say is we're
15:48
S4: waiting for the election and we will roll out more policies.
15:51
S4: Then we saw them say they would add some more, uh,
15:57
S4: jets to the Air Force that were cut by labor
16:02
S4: last year. That's not a major transformation of our defence
16:06
S4: force in any way. It's adding some more planes. Um, actually,
16:10
S4: what many military experts say is that's maybe not the
16:13
S4: big priority right now. What we need to do is
16:16
S4: to get the Navy into shape. We need to be
16:19
S4: getting things like drones for the Defence force. So yeah,
16:23
S4: I'd say, uh, the coalition has certainly more policy announcements
16:29
S4: that they need to roll out, particularly in the economic space.
16:32
S1: Yeah, they're very small target at the moment. Okay. Let's
16:35
S1: go to election speculation. It's getting very annoying because it
16:39
S1: is so speculative. But let's play the game anyway quickly
16:43
S1: David Cyclone Alfred is bearing down on Queensland and northern
16:47
S1: New South Wales as we speak. And it might affect
16:50
S1: the election timing. How so?
16:52
S5: Well, I think Anthony Albanese would like to have the
16:54
S5: option of calling the election on Sunday or Monday so
16:58
S5: that the election could be held on April 12th, if,
17:01
S5: in his judgment, that put the government in a strong
17:04
S5: position of winning Cyclone Alfred has basically, you know, wiped
17:09
S5: away that prospect.
17:10
S3: Prime Minister, I know it pales in significance when we're
17:12
S3: talking about property and lives.
17:14
S7: But sure.
17:15
S3: For you? Does this cyclone basically rule out an election
17:19
S3: being called this weekend or early next week?
17:21
S7: I'm focused as much as some people here are focused
17:24
S7: on something else. I'm focused on the needs of Australians.
17:28
S7: This isn't a time to for party politics. I'm just
17:33
S7: focused on doing my job and governing, and that's something
17:36
S7: I've been focused on.
17:37
S5: It's highly unlikely for Cyclone Alfred to dissipate in a
17:42
S5: way that leaves south east Queensland and northern New South
17:45
S5: Wales unscathed, so therefore an election can't be called while
17:48
S5: there's a national emergency on like that. And that limits
17:52
S5: the government's options. Anthony Albanese on Thursday morning was much
17:57
S5: clearer about the prospect of a March 25th federal budget.
18:01
S5: And I think looking at that as a signal, it
18:04
S5: means that a may election is now more likely than not.
18:08
S1: Yeah, Matt, because basically the calculus is if he doesn't
18:11
S1: call it this weekend or by Monday at the latest,
18:15
S1: it won't be an April 12th election. And then he
18:17
S1: misses a window because there's Easter. Easter holidays, Anzac day.
18:21
S4: Exactly. We're running into Easter. May 7th would still be
18:26
S4: a possibility. That's an option. Yeah. Look, if if the
18:30
S4: storm really does go the way it's looking, which is
18:34
S4: not very good at all, and the rhetoric does seem
18:36
S4: to be shifting around the budget, as David says. And
18:41
S4: that just creates more time for unforeseen events to come
18:45
S4: in and and change the the lay of the land.
18:49
S4: The polling hasn't been moving in a great direction for
18:53
S4: the government. We don't expect another interest rate cut. So
18:58
S4: what they could deliver in a budget in terms of
19:01
S4: more cost of living relief, you know, they could they
19:04
S4: could use that as a platform. But we're seeing that
19:07
S4: the Prime Minister is beholden to not just Donald Trump,
19:11
S4: but also to the weather.
19:12
S1: Yeah, yeah. An act of God, as it were. None
19:16
S1: of that really brings us closer to an answer on
19:17
S1: when it might be, but we will know more by Monday.
19:20
S1: It'll either be a pre-easter election or a post-easter election,
19:23
S1: so the Easter Bunny will be unscathed by politics. Gentlemen,
19:27
S1: thank you so much for your time. Let us do
19:29
S1: this again very soon.
19:30
S4: Thank you.
19:31
S5: Cheers, Jackie. See you. Matt.
19:34
S1: Today's episode of Inside Politics was produced by Tammy Mills
19:38
S1: with technical assistance from Debbie Harrington and Josh towers. Tom
19:42
S1: McKendrick is our head of audio. Inside politics is a
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20:01
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20:05
S1: every week. Links are in the show. Notes. I'm Jacqueline Maley,
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S1: this is inside politics. Thank you for listening.