Latest / Best of Business / Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large ahead of the Reserve Bank's final meeting of the year

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Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large ahead of the Reserve Bank's final meeting of the year · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talks. There'd be
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  Speaker 1: follow this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
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  Speaker 2: Now the Reserve Bank, speaking of which it's going to
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  Speaker 2: meet for the last time this year next week to
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  Speaker 2: review the official cash rate, and most economists are now
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  Speaker 2: picking a cut of fifty basis points. Liam dan Is,
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  Speaker 2: The Herald's Business editor at large ALM get a Heather
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  Speaker 2: seventy five basis points off the cards.
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  Speaker 3: Now A does seem to be Yeah, like I think
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  Speaker 3: we mentioned last week, you.
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  Speaker 4: Know, I could sive some logic for getting down to
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  Speaker 4: where we're going fast, but I think that the consensus
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  Speaker 4: is that the economy, just some of some of the
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  Speaker 4: economic data that's coming in the past three or four weeks,
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  Speaker 4: at unemployment.
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  Speaker 3: Not being quite as bad as expected, things suggest that fifty,
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  Speaker 3: you know, is sort of a big cut.
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  Speaker 4: Really seventy five as slightly panic cut, and so you know,
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  Speaker 4: you wouldn't want to send a message that we're panicking
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  Speaker 4: or that there was a crisis.
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  Speaker 3: So that's the odds.
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  Speaker 4: But it is the big monetary policy statement, this one.
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  Speaker 4: So this is the one where we get all documents
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  Speaker 4: in the forecast.
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  Speaker 3: So there'll be actually a lot of interest in you.
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  Speaker 4: Know, because Okay, we know that we're going to cut
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  Speaker 4: down to four point twenty five, what next?
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  Speaker 3: Where are we going next year? How low is this
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  Speaker 3: going to end up? Those are things that we're going
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  Speaker 3: to be looking for, I guess.
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  Speaker 4: So, you know, as much as you've had some views
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  Speaker 4: on this in the past, as much as we can
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  Speaker 4: trust trust the Reserve banks forecast for where they're going,
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  Speaker 4: I guess is the issue.
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  Speaker 2: The thing is, though, Liam, I mean, the employment number
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  Speaker 2: seem to be holding up quite well, but then you
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  Speaker 2: listen to Treasury and they are revising what's going to
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  Speaker 2: happen with the government's fiscal situation, and it's like way
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  Speaker 2: worse than they thought, So they've got to take that
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  Speaker 2: into account as well.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, that look pretty rough, and I mean activity isn't
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  Speaker 3: expected to pick up that fast. That's the trouble. It's
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  Speaker 3: you know, this survived to twenty five thing.
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  Speaker 4: Well, ain Z had some quarterly forecasts out earlier in
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  Speaker 4: the week, and you know they're talking about the recovery. Really,
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  Speaker 4: isn't this from the second half of twenty twenty five
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  Speaker 4: and it might be all up only one point one
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  Speaker 4: percent growth next year? Which is pretty anemic. I mean,
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  Speaker 4: you know, sure it's good to have growth. We've had
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  Speaker 4: had basically a year of recession. But you know, if
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  Speaker 4: you're expecting an economic boom coming.
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  Speaker 3: You're going to be disappointed.
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  Speaker 4: So it doesn't you know, there therefore casts that there
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  Speaker 4: are some good things happening. There's some strong dairy prices
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  Speaker 4: and all that sort of stuff, but that takes a
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  Speaker 4: while to get through the economy, so you know, it's
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  Speaker 4: not doesn't all suddenly come right after the summer and
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  Speaker 4: that of course, as Treasury will be, they're sort of
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  Speaker 4: prepping us, I think for the HAIFU for the half
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  Speaker 4: year accounts with a speech basically letting us know that
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  Speaker 4: it's not booming, and that doesn't it means the text
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  Speaker 4: takes not going to be fantastic, and so yeah, you've
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  Speaker 4: got a factor all that in. But yeah, I think
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  Speaker 4: we're going to see them cut fifty and maybe suggest
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  Speaker 4: fifty again in February and then down to maybe three
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  Speaker 4: point five three point twenty five as a sort of baseline.
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  Speaker 2: How good, Liam, Thank you appreciate it. Liam Dan, the
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  Speaker 2: Herald's business editor at LFE.
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