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Okay, but bird flu is really bad, right? · Okay, But... Birds

• 0:00
  The
• 0:00
  US
• 0:00
  alone,
• 0:01
  there
• 0:01
  are
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  about
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  170
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  species
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  of
• 0:04
  wild
• 0:05
  birds
• 0:05
  that
• 0:06
  have
• 0:06
  been
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  affected
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  by
• 0:07
  influenza.
• 0:08
  And
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  the
• 0:09
  majority
• 0:10
  of
• 0:10
  those
• 0:10
  170
• 0:11
  species
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  are
• 0:12
  just
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  dying
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  from
• 0:13
  infection
• 0:13
  rather
• 0:14
  than
• 0:14
  recovering.
• 0:38
  Remember
• 0:39
  when
• 0:39
  bird
• 0:39
  flu
• 0:39
  sounded
• 0:40
  just
• 0:40
  like
• 0:40
  a
• 0:40
  bad
• 0:41
  tabloid
• 0:41
  headline?
• 0:42
  Avian
• 0:42
  flu,
• 0:43
  specifically
• 0:43
  the
• 0:43
  highly
• 0:44
  pathogenic
• 0:45
  kind
• 0:45
  known
• 0:45
  as
• 0:45
  H5N1,
• 0:46
  isn't
• 0:47
  just
• 0:47
  a
• 0:47
  farm
• 0:47
  problem
• 0:48
  anymore.
• 0:48
  It's
• 0:49
  not
• 0:49
  confined
• 0:49
  to
• 0:50
  chickens
• 0:50
  in
• 0:50
  crates
• 0:50
  or
• 0:50
  duck
• 0:51
  farms
• 0:51
  in
• 0:51
  the
• 0:51
  Midwest.
• 0:52
  It's
• 0:52
  in
• 0:52
  wild
• 0:53
  birds,
• 0:53
  in
• 0:54
  raptors,
• 0:54
  it's
• 0:55
  even
• 0:55
  in
• 0:55
  mammals.
• 0:56
  It's
• 0:56
  rewriting
• 0:57
  ecosystems
• 0:57
  to
• 0:57
  a
• 0:58
  degree
• 0:58
  that
• 0:58
  we
• 0:58
  do
• 0:58
  not
• 0:59
  fully
• 0:59
  understand.
• 0:59
  And
• 1:00
  in
• 1:00
  some
• 1:00
  cases,
• 1:00
  it's
• 1:01
  devastating
• 1:01
  entire
• 1:02
  colonies
• 1:02
  of
• 1:03
  seabirds
• 1:03
  and
• 1:03
  just.
• 1:03
  Just
• 1:04
  a
• 1:04
  single
• 1:04
  season.
• 1:05
  So,
• 1:05
  yes,
• 1:06
  avian
• 1:07
  flu
• 1:07
  is
• 1:07
  really
• 1:08
  bad.
• 1:09
  Not
• 1:09
  just
• 1:09
  because
• 1:09
  of
• 1:09
  how
• 1:10
  contagious
• 1:10
  or
• 1:10
  deadly
• 1:11
  it
• 1:11
  is,
• 1:11
  but
• 1:11
  because
• 1:11
  it's
• 1:12
  doing
• 1:12
  things
• 1:12
  viruses
• 1:13
  don't
• 1:13
  always
• 1:13
  do,
• 1:14
  like
• 1:14
  cross
• 1:15
  species
• 1:15
  boundaries
• 1:16
  or
• 1:16
  cause
• 1:16
  ripple
• 1:17
  effects
• 1:17
  in
• 1:17
  food
• 1:17
  webs
• 1:18
  or
• 1:18
  force
• 1:19
  conservation
• 1:19
  scientists
• 1:20
  to
• 1:20
  put
• 1:20
  on
• 1:20
  hazmat
• 1:21
  suits
• 1:21
  in
• 1:21
  the
• 1:21
  name
• 1:21
  of
• 1:22
  seabird
• 1:22
  rescue.
• 1:24
  In
• 1:24
  2022
• 1:25
  and
• 1:25
  2023,
• 1:25
  we
• 1:26
  saw
• 1:26
  unprecedented
• 1:27
  die
• 1:27
  offs
• 1:27
  among
• 1:28
  wild
• 1:28
  birds
• 1:28
  in
• 1:28
  North
• 1:28
  America.
• 1:30
  Snow
• 1:30
  geese,
• 1:31
  pelicans,
• 1:32
  common
• 1:32
  terns,
• 1:33
  you
• 1:33
  name
• 1:34
  it.
• 1:34
  And
• 1:34
  while
• 1:34
  headlines
• 1:35
  focused
• 1:35
  on
• 1:35
  poultry
• 1:36
  prices
• 1:36
  and
• 1:36
  egg
• 1:37
  shortages,
• 1:37
  something
• 1:38
  much
• 1:38
  more
• 1:38
  alarming
• 1:39
  was
• 1:39
  happening
• 1:39
  just
• 1:40
  offshore.
• 1:41
  This
• 1:41
  episode
• 1:42
  isn't
• 1:42
  about
• 1:42
  panic.
• 1:43
  It's
• 1:43
  about
• 1:43
  understanding.
• 1:44
  Because
• 1:45
  this
• 1:45
  isn't
• 1:45
  just
• 1:46
  a
• 1:46
  bird
• 1:46
  thing.
• 1:47
  It's
• 1:47
  a
• 1:47
  biosecurity
• 1:48
  thing,
• 1:48
  an
• 1:48
  ecological
• 1:49
  thing,
• 1:49
  a
• 1:50
  climate
• 1:50
  thing,
• 1:51
  an
• 1:51
  everything
• 1:51
  is
• 1:52
  connected
• 1:52
  thing.
• 1:52
  And
• 1:53
  to
• 1:53
  help
• 1:53
  us
• 1:53
  unpack
• 1:54
  the
• 1:54
  true
• 1:54
  scope
• 1:54
  of
• 1:54
  what's
• 1:55
  happening
• 1:55
  and
• 1:56
  what
• 1:56
  might
• 1:56
  be
• 1:56
  next,
• 1:57
  we'll
• 1:57
  talk
• 1:57
  to
• 1:57
  disease
• 1:58
  ecologist
• 1:58
  and
• 1:58
  Assistant
• 1:59
  professor
• 1:59
  at
• 2:00
  UMass
• 2:00
  Boston,
• 2:01
  Dr.
• 2:01
  Nicola
• 2:02
  Hill,
• 2:02
  who
• 2:03
  studies
• 2:03
  how
• 2:03
  diseases
• 2:04
  emerge
• 2:04
  from
• 2:04
  animal
• 2:05
  reservoirs
• 2:05
  in
• 2:06
  an
• 2:06
  increasingly
• 2:06
  human
• 2:07
  impacted
• 2:07
  world.
• 2:08
  But
• 2:08
  first,
• 2:09
  let's
• 2:09
  zoom
• 2:09
  out.
• 2:10
  How
• 2:10
  did
• 2:10
  avian
• 2:11
  flu
• 2:11
  get
• 2:11
  here?
• 2:11
  Where
• 2:12
  is
• 2:12
  it
• 2:12
  going?
• 2:12
  And
• 2:13
  how
• 2:13
  worried
• 2:13
  should
• 2:14
  we
• 2:14
  actually
• 2:14
  be?
• 2:15
  It
• 2:15
  started
• 2:15
  quiet,
• 2:16
  as
• 2:16
  these
• 2:16
  things
• 2:17
  often
• 2:17
  do.
• 2:17
  A
• 2:18
  few
• 2:18
  dead
• 2:18
  geese
• 2:18
  in
• 2:18
  southern
• 2:19
  China
• 2:19
  in
• 2:20
  1996.
• 2:21
  The
• 2:21
  virus
• 2:22
  was
• 2:22
  labeled
• 2:22
  H5N1,
• 2:23
  another
• 2:24
  entry
• 2:24
  in
• 2:24
  the
• 2:24
  Alphabet
• 2:25
  soup
• 2:25
  of
• 2:25
  influenza
• 2:26
  strains.
• 2:26
  But
• 2:27
  this
• 2:27
  one,
• 2:27
  this
• 2:28
  one
• 2:28
  was
• 2:28
  different.
• 2:29
  It
• 2:29
  didn't
• 2:29
  just
• 2:30
  make
• 2:30
  the
• 2:30
  birds
• 2:30
  sick,
• 2:30
  it
• 2:31
  wiped
• 2:31
  them
• 2:31
  out.
• 2:32
  And
• 2:32
  within
• 2:32
  a
• 2:32
  year,
• 2:32
  it
• 2:33
  had
• 2:33
  made
• 2:33
  the
• 2:33
  jump
• 2:33
  scientists
• 2:34
  always
• 2:34
  dread.
• 2:35
  From
• 2:35
  bird
• 2:36
  to
• 2:36
  human.
• 2:37
  In
• 2:38
  1997,
• 2:38
  Hong
• 2:39
  Kong
• 2:39
  saw
• 2:39
  the
• 2:39
  first
• 2:40
  human
• 2:40
  infections.
• 2:41
  18
• 2:41
  people
• 2:42
  with
• 2:42
  6
• 2:42
  deaths.
• 2:43
  The
• 2:44
  government
• 2:44
  responded
• 2:44
  by
• 2:45
  culling
• 2:45
  every
• 2:45
  chicken
• 2:46
  in
• 2:46
  the
• 2:46
  territory.
• 2:47
  1.5
• 2:48
  million
• 2:48
  birds
• 2:49
  gone
• 2:49
  in
• 2:50
  three
• 2:50
  days.
• 2:51
  It
• 2:51
  was
• 2:51
  drastic
• 2:52
  and
• 2:52
  chaotic,
• 2:53
  and
• 2:53
  for
• 2:53
  a
• 2:54
  moment,
• 2:54
  it
• 2:54
  seemed
• 2:54
  like
• 2:54
  the
• 2:55
  story
• 2:55
  was
• 2:55
  over.
• 2:56
  But
• 2:56
  viruses
• 2:57
  don't
• 2:57
  retire.
• 2:58
  They
• 2:58
  mutate,
• 2:59
  reassort,
• 2:59
  and
• 2:59
  then
• 3:00
  reappear
• 3:01
  through
• 3:01
  the
• 3:01
  2000s,
• 3:02
  H5N1
• 3:03
  simmered
• 3:03
  across
• 3:04
  Asia,
• 3:04
  from
• 3:04
  duck
• 3:05
  farms
• 3:05
  in
• 3:05
  Vietnam
• 3:06
  to
• 3:06
  backyard
• 3:06
  coops
• 3:07
  in
• 3:07
  Indonesia.
• 3:08
  Wild
• 3:08
  migratory
• 3:09
  birds
• 3:09
  carried
• 3:09
  it
• 3:09
  along
• 3:10
  their
• 3:10
  flyways,
• 3:10
  turning
• 3:11
  wetlands
• 3:11
  into
• 3:11
  viral
• 3:12
  highways.
• 3:12
  And
• 3:13
  by
• 3:13
  2005,
• 3:14
  it
• 3:14
  had
• 3:14
  reached
• 3:15
  Europe
• 3:15
  and
• 3:15
  Africa.
• 3:16
  Scientists
• 3:17
  began
• 3:17
  calling
• 3:17
  it
• 3:18
  highly
• 3:18
  pathogenic
• 3:19
  avian
• 3:19
  influenza,
• 3:20
  or
• 3:20
  hpai.
• 3:21
  The
• 3:21
  phrase
• 3:22
  sounded
• 3:22
  technical,
• 3:22
  but
• 3:23
  what
• 3:23
  it
• 3:23
  meant
• 3:23
  was
• 3:24
  mass
• 3:24
  mortality.
• 3:25
  Tens
• 3:25
  of
• 3:26
  millions
• 3:26
  of
• 3:26
  domestic
• 3:26
  birds
• 3:27
  were
• 3:27
  culled.
• 3:28
  Millions
• 3:28
  more
• 3:29
  wild
• 3:29
  birds
• 3:29
  died
• 3:29
  outright.
• 3:30
  And
• 3:31
  every
• 3:31
  so
• 3:31
  often,
• 3:31
  it
• 3:32
  jumped
• 3:32
  again
• 3:32
  into
• 3:33
  humans,
• 3:34
  not
• 3:34
  efficiently,
• 3:35
  but
• 3:35
  lethally.
• 3:36
  Roughly
• 3:36
  860
• 3:37
  people
• 3:38
  infected
• 3:38
  since
• 3:38
  2003.
• 3:39
  More
• 3:40
  than
• 3:40
  half
• 3:40
  of
• 3:40
  them
• 3:40
  didn't
• 3:41
  survive.
• 3:42
  Then
• 3:42
  came
• 3:42
  the
• 3:42
  lull.
• 3:43
  From
• 3:43
  2010
• 3:44
  to
• 3:44
  2018,
• 3:45
  H5N1
• 3:46
  seemed
• 3:46
  to
• 3:46
  fade
• 3:46
  into
• 3:47
  the
• 3:47
  background
• 3:47
  noise
• 3:48
  of
• 3:48
  global
• 3:48
  disease
• 3:48
  ecology.
• 3:50
  But
• 3:50
  beneath
• 3:50
  that
• 3:50
  quiet,
• 3:51
  influenza's
• 3:52
  restless
• 3:52
  genetics
• 3:53
  were
• 3:53
  busy
• 3:53
  remixing
• 3:54
  themselves.
• 3:55
  Other
• 3:55
  avian
• 3:56
  strains,
• 3:56
  H7N9,
• 3:58
  H5N6,
• 3:59
  and
• 3:59
  H5N8,
• 4:00
  took
• 4:00
  turns
• 4:01
  in
• 4:01
  the
• 4:01
  spotlight.
• 4:02
  The
• 4:02
  world
• 4:02
  moved
• 4:03
  on
• 4:03
  until
• 4:03
  2021.
• 4:05
  That's
• 4:05
  when
• 4:05
  the
• 4:05
  new
• 4:06
  lineage,
• 4:06
  Clade
• 4:07
  2344
• 4:08
  B,
• 4:09
  spread
• 4:09
  like
• 4:09
  wildfire
• 4:10
  across
• 4:10
  Europe,
• 4:11
  Africa,
• 4:11
  and
• 4:12
  the
• 4:12
  Americas.
• 4:13
  It
• 4:13
  hit
• 4:13
  wild
• 4:14
  birds
• 4:14
  harder
• 4:14
  than
• 4:15
  any
• 4:15
  previous
• 4:15
  version.
• 4:16
  Pelicans,
• 4:17
  puffins,
• 4:18
  eagles,
• 4:19
  albatross.
• 4:21
  Entire
• 4:21
  colonies
• 4:22
  erased
• 4:22
  in
• 4:22
  a
• 4:22
  single
• 4:23
  breeding
• 4:23
  season.
• 4:24
  By
• 4:24
  2022,
• 4:26
  H5N1
• 4:27
  had
• 4:27
  arrived
• 4:27
  in
• 4:27
  North
• 4:27
  America.
• 4:28
  It
• 4:28
  leapt
• 4:29
  into
• 4:29
  skunks,
• 4:30
  foxes,
• 4:31
  seals,
• 4:32
  sea
• 4:32
  lions,
• 4:32
  and
• 4:33
  even
• 4:33
  polar
• 4:33
  bears.
• 4:34
  The
• 4:34
  virus
• 4:35
  wasn't
• 4:35
  just
• 4:35
  crossing
• 4:36
  international
• 4:36
  borders.
• 4:37
  It
• 4:37
  was
• 4:37
  crossing
• 4:37
  the
• 4:37
  animal
• 4:38
  kingdom.
• 4:39
  And
• 4:39
  suddenly,
• 4:40
  the
• 4:40
  story
• 4:40
  wasn't
• 4:41
  about
• 4:41
  poultry
• 4:41
  anymore.
• 4:42
  It
• 4:42
  was
• 4:42
  about
• 4:42
  ecosystems
• 4:43
  unraveling.
• 4:45
  Egg
• 4:45
  shortages
• 4:46
  made
• 4:46
  headlines,
• 4:47
  but
• 4:47
  behind
• 4:47
  those,
• 4:47
  biologists
• 4:48
  in
• 4:48
  Tyvek
• 4:49
  suits
• 4:49
  waded
• 4:49
  through
• 4:50
  beaches
• 4:50
  littered
• 4:51
  with
• 4:51
  dead
• 4:51
  gannets
• 4:51
  and
• 4:52
  terns.
• 4:53
  Entire
• 4:53
  species,
• 4:54
  like
• 4:54
  the
• 4:54
  California
• 4:55
  condor
• 4:55
  were
• 4:56
  once
• 4:56
  again
• 4:56
  under
• 4:57
  existential
• 4:57
  threat.
• 4:58
  We're
• 4:59
  now
• 4:59
  in
• 4:59
  2025,
• 5:00
  and
• 5:00
  H5N1
• 5:01
  hasn't
• 5:01
  gone
• 5:02
  away.
• 5:02
  It's
• 5:03
  still
• 5:03
  reshaping
• 5:03
  the
• 5:04
  interface
• 5:04
  between
• 5:04
  wildlife,
• 5:05
  agriculture,
• 5:06
  and
• 5:06
  people.
• 5:07
  The
• 5:07
  World
• 5:07
  Health
• 5:08
  Organization
• 5:08
  tracks
• 5:09
  sporadic
• 5:09
  cases
• 5:10
  in
• 5:10
  humans,
• 5:11
  while
• 5:11
  the
• 5:11
  USDA
• 5:12
  monitors
• 5:12
  outbreaks
• 5:13
  in
• 5:13
  livestock,
• 5:14
  including,
• 5:14
  for
• 5:14
  the
• 5:15
  first
• 5:15
  time,
• 5:15
  dairy
• 5:16
  cattle.
• 5:16
  It's
• 5:17
  a
• 5:17
  new
• 5:17
  frontier
• 5:18
  for
• 5:18
  a
• 5:18
  virus
• 5:18
  that
• 5:18
  refuses
• 5:19
  to
• 5:19
  stay
• 5:19
  in
• 5:19
  its
• 5:19
  lane.
• 5:21
  The
• 5:21
  biggest
• 5:21
  question
• 5:22
  isn't
• 5:22
  whether
• 5:22
  H5N1
• 5:23
  will
• 5:23
  go
• 5:23
  extinct.
• 5:24
  It's
• 5:24
  whether
• 5:24
  it
• 5:25
  will
• 5:25
  adapt.
• 5:26
  Could
• 5:26
  it
• 5:26
  become
• 5:26
  the
• 5:27
  next
• 5:27
  pandemic
• 5:27
  strain?
• 5:28
  Possibly.
• 5:29
  But
• 5:29
  evolution
• 5:30
  doesn't
• 5:30
  guarantee
• 5:31
  inevitability,
• 5:32
  only
• 5:32
  opportunity.
• 5:33
  So
• 5:33
  here
• 5:33
  we
• 5:34
  are,
• 5:34
  nearly
• 5:34
  30
• 5:35
  years
• 5:35
  after
• 5:35
  that
• 5:35
  first
• 5:36
  goose
• 5:36
  in
• 5:36
  Guangdong.
• 5:37
  A
• 5:37
  virus
• 5:38
  that
• 5:38
  began
• 5:38
  in
• 5:38
  a
• 5:38
  pond
• 5:39
  has
• 5:39
  now
• 5:39
  circled
• 5:40
  the
• 5:40
  planet.
• 5:41
  And
• 5:41
  it's
• 5:41
  reminding
• 5:42
  us
• 5:42
  again
• 5:43
  that
• 5:43
  health
• 5:43
  isn't
• 5:44
  siloed
• 5:44
  by
• 5:44
  species
• 5:45
  or
• 5:45
  borders.
• 5:45
  It's
• 5:46
  one
• 5:46
  shared
• 5:46
  system,
• 5:47
  one
• 5:47
  connected
• 5:48
  world.
• 5:49
  Stay
• 5:49
  tuned.
• 5:54
  Okay,
• 5:55
  well,
• 5:55
  welcome
• 5:55
  back,
• 5:55
  everyone.
• 5:56
  I'm
• 5:56
  really
• 5:56
  excited
• 5:57
  to
• 5:57
  be
• 5:57
  joined
• 5:57
  today
• 5:57
  by
• 5:58
  Dr.
• 5:58
  Nicola
• 5:58
  Hill.
• 5:59
  Thanks
• 5:59
  so
• 5:59
  much
• 5:59
  for
• 5:59
  joining
• 6:00
  us.
• 6:00
  My
• 6:00
  pleasure.
• 6:01
  Thanks
• 6:01
  for
• 6:01
  having
• 6:02
  me.
• 6:02
  Of
• 6:03
  course.
• 6:03
  Yeah.
• 6:03
  I
• 6:03
  thought
• 6:03
  we
• 6:04
  could
• 6:04
  start
• 6:04
  off
• 6:04
  thinking
• 6:05
  about,
• 6:05
  like,
• 6:05
  how
• 6:05
  did
• 6:05
  you
• 6:06
  start
• 6:06
  working
• 6:07
  on
• 6:07
  avian
• 6:07
  flu,
• 6:08
  specifically
• 6:08
  H5N1.
• 6:10
  So
• 6:10
  I
• 6:10
  had
• 6:11
  finished
• 6:11
  my
• 6:11
  PhD.
• 6:12
  You
• 6:12
  can
• 6:12
  probably
• 6:12
  tell
• 6:12
  from
• 6:13
  my
• 6:13
  accent
• 6:14
  that
• 6:14
  I'm
• 6:14
  not
• 6:15
  from
• 6:15
  the
• 6:15
  us.
• 6:15
  I'm
• 6:16
  originally
• 6:16
  from
• 6:16
  Australia
• 6:17
  and
• 6:18
  I
• 6:18
  was
• 6:19
  studying
• 6:19
  the
• 6:19
  evolution
• 6:20
  of
• 6:20
  parasitism
• 6:21
  in
• 6:21
  marsupials.
• 6:23
  So
• 6:23
  these
• 6:24
  are
• 6:24
  mammals
• 6:25
  that
• 6:25
  have
• 6:25
  pouches
• 6:27
  and
• 6:27
  they
• 6:28
  have
• 6:28
  really
• 6:28
  immature
• 6:29
  young.
• 6:29
  They're
• 6:29
  so
• 6:29
  different
• 6:29
  from
• 6:30
  birds.
• 6:31
  And
• 6:32
  that
• 6:32
  required
• 6:33
  this
• 6:33
  really
• 6:34
  strange
• 6:34
  mix
• 6:35
  of
• 6:36
  skills
• 6:36
  like
• 6:37
  immunology,
• 6:39
  parasitism,
• 6:40
  phylogenetics,
• 6:42
  GPS
• 6:43
  tracking,
• 6:44
  gis.
• 6:45
  So
• 6:46
  I
• 6:46
  do
• 6:46
  like
• 6:46
  to
• 6:46
  study
• 6:47
  other
• 6:47
  things,
• 6:47
  but
• 6:47
  I
• 6:48
  have
• 6:48
  to
• 6:48
  say,
• 6:49
  bird
• 6:49
  flu
• 6:50
  has
• 6:50
  kept
• 6:50
  me
• 6:51
  really
• 6:51
  busy.
• 6:52
  How
• 6:52
  is
• 6:52
  this
• 6:52
  current
• 6:53
  strain
• 6:53
  different
• 6:53
  from
• 6:54
  past
• 6:54
  versions
• 6:54
  of
• 6:55
  avian
• 6:55
  flu?
• 6:55
  Because
• 6:56
  flus
• 6:57
  have
• 6:57
  existed
• 6:57
  throughout
• 6:58
  history,
• 6:59
  but
• 6:59
  this
• 6:59
  one,
• 7:00
  H5N1
• 7:00
  or
• 7:01
  HPAI,
• 7:02
  highly
• 7:03
  pathogenic
• 7:04
  avian
• 7:04
  influenza,
• 7:05
  seems
• 7:05
  different.
• 7:05
  Can
• 7:05
  you
• 7:05
  tell
• 7:06
  us
• 7:06
  a
• 7:06
  little
• 7:06
  bit
• 7:06
  about
• 7:06
  why
• 7:07
  it's
• 7:07
  kept
• 7:07
  you
• 7:07
  so
• 7:07
  busy
• 7:08
  and
• 7:08
  why
• 7:08
  it's
• 7:08
  so
• 7:08
  different?
• 7:09
  Yes.
• 7:11
  So
• 7:11
  this
• 7:12
  particular
• 7:12
  strain
• 7:13
  of
• 7:13
  H5N1
• 7:15
  just
• 7:16
  seems
• 7:16
  to
• 7:16
  have
• 7:17
  really
• 7:18
  high
• 7:18
  fitness
• 7:19
  in
• 7:19
  wild
• 7:20
  birds,
• 7:20
  and
• 7:20
  that's
• 7:21
  new.
• 7:21
  So
• 7:22
  it
• 7:22
  basically
• 7:23
  means
• 7:23
  that
• 7:24
  the
• 7:24
  virus
• 7:24
  is
• 7:24
  able
• 7:25
  to
• 7:25
  replicate
• 7:26
  really
• 7:26
  quickly
• 7:27
  and
• 7:27
  really
• 7:27
  well
• 7:28
  in
• 7:28
  wild
• 7:28
  birds,
• 7:29
  and
• 7:29
  that
• 7:30
  was
• 7:30
  not
• 7:30
  always
• 7:30
  the
• 7:31
  case.
• 7:32
  Originally,
• 7:33
  one
• 7:33
  of
• 7:33
  the
• 7:33
  original
• 7:33
  strains,
• 7:34
  if
• 7:35
  you
• 7:35
  go
• 7:35
  back
• 7:35
  far
• 7:35
  enough,
• 7:37
  The
• 7:37
  Goose
• 7:37
  Guangdong
• 7:38
  1996
• 7:39
  strain,
• 7:41
  that
• 7:41
  tended
• 7:42
  to
• 7:42
  be
• 7:42
  far
• 7:43
  more
• 7:44
  fit
• 7:44
  in
• 7:45
  poultry
• 7:45
  and
• 7:45
  not
• 7:46
  wild
• 7:46
  birds.
• 7:46
  And
• 7:47
  so
• 7:47
  it
• 7:47
  would
• 7:47
  replicate
• 7:48
  to
• 7:48
  High
• 7:48
  Tider.
• 7:49
  Yes,
• 7:49
  it
• 7:50
  would
• 7:50
  kill
• 7:50
  poultry,
• 7:51
  but
• 7:51
  it
• 7:51
  was
• 7:51
  not
• 7:52
  fit
• 7:52
  in
• 7:52
  wild
• 7:53
  birds
• 7:53
  at
• 7:53
  all.
• 7:54
  And
• 7:54
  so
• 7:54
  it's
• 7:54
  been
• 7:55
  this
• 7:55
  really
• 7:55
  strange
• 7:57
  process
• 7:57
  of
• 7:58
  watching
• 7:58
  this
• 7:58
  virus
• 7:59
  evolve
• 8:00
  over
• 8:00
  time.
• 8:01
  And
• 8:03
  in
• 8:04
  around
• 8:04
  that
• 8:05
  2020
• 8:06
  period
• 8:07
  is
• 8:07
  when
• 8:08
  that
• 8:08
  original
• 8:10
  1996
• 8:11
  Goose
• 8:11
  Guangdong
• 8:11
  lineage,
• 8:12
  which
• 8:12
  is
• 8:12
  like
• 8:12
  the
• 8:13
  parent
• 8:13
  for
• 8:13
  all
• 8:14
  of
• 8:14
  the
• 8:14
  deadly
• 8:15
  H5N1
• 8:16
  viruses
• 8:16
  that
• 8:16
  we
• 8:17
  see
• 8:17
  kind
• 8:18
  of
• 8:18
  ravaging
• 8:19
  the
• 8:19
  globe,
• 8:20
  honestly
• 8:20
  at
• 8:20
  the
• 8:20
  moment
• 8:22
  was
• 8:22
  the
• 8:22
  birth
• 8:23
  of
• 8:23
  clade2344b.
• 8:25
  And
• 8:26
  I'm
• 8:26
  sorry
• 8:26
  about
• 8:26
  the
• 8:27
  really
• 8:27
  forgettable
• 8:27
  name,
• 8:29
  but
• 8:29
  I
• 8:29
  really
• 8:30
  think
• 8:30
  the
• 8:30
  most
• 8:30
  important
• 8:31
  part
• 8:31
  about
• 8:31
  that
• 8:32
  is
• 8:32
  that
• 8:33
  something
• 8:33
  switched.
• 8:34
  And
• 8:35
  we
• 8:35
  think
• 8:35
  it
• 8:35
  was
• 8:35
  this
• 8:36
  sort
• 8:36
  of
• 8:36
  episodic
• 8:37
  evolution
• 8:38
  where
• 8:38
  the
• 8:39
  virus
• 8:39
  tended
• 8:40
  to
• 8:40
  be
• 8:40
  able
• 8:40
  to
• 8:41
  replicate
• 8:41
  really
• 8:42
  well
• 8:42
  in
• 8:42
  wild
• 8:42
  birds.
• 8:44
  And
• 8:45
  that
• 8:45
  is
• 8:46
  good
• 8:46
  and
• 8:46
  bad.
• 8:48
  So
• 8:48
  that
• 8:48
  meant
• 8:48
  that
• 8:49
  there
• 8:50
  are
• 8:50
  wild
• 8:50
  birds
• 8:51
  who
• 8:51
  are
• 8:52
  capable
• 8:53
  of
• 8:53
  recovering
• 8:54
  from
• 8:55
  infection
• 8:55
  now
• 8:56
  and
• 8:57
  are
• 8:57
  capable
• 8:57
  of
• 8:58
  asymptomatic
• 8:58
  or
• 8:59
  silent
• 8:59
  spreading.
• 9:00
  A
• 9:00
  bit
• 9:00
  like
• 9:00
  Typhoid
• 9:01
  Mary.
• 9:02
  And
• 9:02
  so
• 9:03
  they're
• 9:03
  not
• 9:04
  some
• 9:04
  water
• 9:05
  bird
• 9:05
  species.
• 9:06
  And
• 9:06
  we
• 9:06
  can
• 9:06
  get
• 9:07
  more
• 9:07
  specific.
• 9:07
  I
• 9:08
  really
• 9:08
  mean
• 9:08
  waterfowl
• 9:09
  are
• 9:09
  able
• 9:09
  to
• 9:10
  actually
• 9:12
  control
• 9:12
  infection.
• 9:13
  But
• 9:14
  the
• 9:15
  other
• 9:15
  devastating
• 9:15
  part
• 9:16
  to
• 9:16
  that
• 9:16
  is
• 9:17
  that
• 9:18
  because
• 9:18
  we
• 9:18
  have
• 9:18
  a
• 9:18
  silent
• 9:19
  spreader
• 9:19
  in
• 9:20
  the
• 9:20
  midst,
• 9:21
  the
• 9:21
  virus
• 9:21
  is
• 9:21
  also
• 9:22
  spreading
• 9:22
  really
• 9:23
  quickly
• 9:23
  in
• 9:24
  wild
• 9:24
  birds.
• 9:25
  And
• 9:25
  so
• 9:25
  that's
• 9:25
  really
• 9:26
  unprecedented.
• 9:27
  Yeah,
• 9:27
  that's
• 9:28
  so
• 9:28
  fascinating.
• 9:28
  So
• 9:29
  at
• 9:29
  this
• 9:29
  point
• 9:29
  then,
• 9:30
  with
• 9:30
  H5N1,
• 9:31
  well,
• 9:31
  I
• 9:32
  guess
• 9:32
  the
• 9:32
  early
• 9:32
  2020s
• 9:33
  when
• 9:33
  it
• 9:33
  really
• 9:33
  started
• 9:35
  ravaging
• 9:35
  wild
• 9:36
  populations,
• 9:37
  what
• 9:37
  species
• 9:37
  of
• 9:38
  wild
• 9:38
  birds
• 9:39
  seem
• 9:39
  to
• 9:39
  be
• 9:39
  most
• 9:40
  vulnerable
• 9:40
  right
• 9:40
  now?
• 9:40
  And
• 9:41
  why
• 9:41
  do
• 9:41
  you
• 9:41
  think
• 9:42
  it's
• 9:43
  those
• 9:43
  lineages
• 9:43
  or
• 9:44
  species
• 9:44
  versus
• 9:44
  others?
• 9:45
  You're
• 9:45
  right
• 9:46
  about
• 9:46
  the
• 9:46
  2020
• 9:48
  shift
• 9:48
  in
• 9:48
  the
• 9:48
  evolution
• 9:49
  of
• 9:49
  this
• 9:49
  virus.
• 9:50
  And
• 9:51
  we
• 9:51
  understand
• 9:52
  that
• 9:52
  this
• 9:52
  is
• 9:52
  the
• 9:53
  biggest
• 9:54
  outbreak
• 9:55
  in
• 9:55
  wildlife
• 9:56
  to
• 9:56
  date
• 9:56
  of
• 9:57
  any
• 9:57
  disease.
• 9:57
  Actually,
• 9:59
  simply
• 9:59
  really
• 10:00
  of
• 10:00
  any
• 10:00
  disease.
• 10:01
  Yes.
• 10:02
  So
• 10:02
  we
• 10:02
  think
• 10:03
  that
• 10:03
  this
• 10:03
  is
• 10:03
  the
• 10:03
  case.
• 10:04
  Although
• 10:04
  I'm
• 10:04
  also
• 10:05
  going
• 10:05
  to
• 10:05
  chime
• 10:05
  in
• 10:05
  and
• 10:06
  say
• 10:06
  quantifying
• 10:07
  the
• 10:07
  mortality
• 10:08
  in
• 10:08
  wild
• 10:09
  birds
• 10:09
  is
• 10:09
  incredibly,
• 10:10
  logistically
• 10:11
  challenging.
• 10:12
  So
• 10:12
  we're
• 10:12
  only
• 10:13
  left
• 10:13
  with
• 10:14
  estimates
• 10:14
  of
• 10:15
  how
• 10:15
  many
• 10:15
  birds
• 10:15
  have
• 10:16
  died,
• 10:16
  but
• 10:17
  we
• 10:17
  think
• 10:17
  that
• 10:17
  the
• 10:17
  sheer
• 10:18
  number
• 10:18
  of
• 10:18
  individuals
• 10:18
  that
• 10:19
  are
• 10:19
  dying
• 10:21
  accumulate,
• 10:22
  and
• 10:22
  we're
• 10:22
  probably
• 10:23
  somewhere
• 10:23
  in
• 10:23
  the
• 10:24
  one
• 10:25
  to
• 10:25
  tens
• 10:25
  of
• 10:25
  millions
• 10:26
  of
• 10:26
  cases
• 10:26
  of
• 10:27
  infected
• 10:27
  wild
• 10:28
  birds.
• 10:29
  And
• 10:29
  that
• 10:29
  is
• 10:30
  probably
• 10:30
  a
• 10:31
  major,
• 10:31
  major
• 10:31
  underestimate.
• 10:32
  I
• 10:33
  was
• 10:33
  pondering
• 10:33
  this
• 10:34
  question,
• 10:34
  and
• 10:34
  I
• 10:34
  think
• 10:35
  when
• 10:35
  we
• 10:35
  look
• 10:35
  at
• 10:36
  the
• 10:36
  US
• 10:37
  alone,
• 10:38
  there
• 10:38
  are
• 10:39
  about
• 10:39
  170
• 10:40
  species
• 10:41
  of
• 10:41
  wild
• 10:42
  birds
• 10:42
  that
• 10:43
  have
• 10:43
  been
• 10:43
  affected
• 10:44
  by
• 10:45
  influenza.
• 10:46
  And
• 10:47
  the
• 10:47
  majority
• 10:48
  of
• 10:48
  those
• 10:48
  170
• 10:49
  species
• 10:49
  are
• 10:50
  just
• 10:50
  dying
• 10:50
  from
• 10:51
  infection
• 10:51
  rather
• 10:51
  than
• 10:52
  recovering.
• 10:53
  So
• 10:53
  we
• 10:53
  think
• 10:53
  it's
• 10:53
  a
• 10:53
  very,
• 10:54
  very
• 10:54
  small
• 10:54
  fraction
• 10:55
  of
• 10:56
  species
• 10:56
  that
• 10:56
  are
• 10:56
  really
• 10:57
  contributing
• 10:57
  to
• 10:57
  this
• 10:58
  asymptomatic
• 10:58
  spread.
• 10:59
  The
• 10:59
  large
• 11:00
  majority
• 11:01
  will
• 11:01
  be
• 11:02
  infected
• 11:02
  with
• 11:02
  the
• 11:02
  virus
• 11:03
  and
• 11:03
  will
• 11:04
  quickly
• 11:04
  die
• 11:05
  in
• 11:05
  the
• 11:05
  wild.
• 11:07
  So
• 11:07
  this
• 11:07
  virus
• 11:08
  is
• 11:08
  deadly
• 11:09
  in
• 11:09
  the
• 11:09
  majority
• 11:09
  of
• 11:10
  birds
• 11:10
  that
• 11:11
  it
• 11:11
  comes
• 11:11
  into
• 11:12
  contact
• 11:12
  with.
• 11:14
  So
• 11:14
  if
• 11:14
  you
• 11:14
  take
• 11:15
  on
• 11:15
  face
• 11:15
  value
• 11:16
  that
• 11:16
  estimate
• 11:17
  that
• 11:17
  there
• 11:17
  are
• 11:17
  roughly
• 11:18
  a
• 11:18
  thousand
• 11:19
  bird
• 11:20
  species
• 11:20
  in
• 11:20
  the
• 11:21
  U.S.
• 11:21
  you
• 11:22
  know,
• 11:22
  17%
• 11:23
  of
• 11:23
  species
• 11:24
  in
• 11:24
  the
• 11:24
  U.S.
• 11:24
  is
• 11:25
  a
• 11:25
  substantial
• 11:26
  chunk
• 11:27
  of
• 11:27
  our
• 11:28
  avian
• 11:28
  biodiversity,
• 11:30
  and
• 11:30
  so
• 11:31
  that
• 11:31
  is
• 11:32
  pretty
• 11:33
  alarming.
• 11:34
  In
• 11:35
  parts
• 11:35
  of
• 11:35
  the
• 11:36
  globe,
• 11:36
  such
• 11:37
  as
• 11:38
  the
• 11:38
  UK
• 11:39
  and
• 11:39
  Canada
• 11:40
  and
• 11:40
  other
• 11:40
  parts
• 11:41
  of
• 11:41
  Europe,
• 11:41
  actually,
• 11:42
  they've
• 11:43
  had
• 11:43
  consistent
• 11:44
  and
• 11:45
  quite
• 11:45
  thorough
• 11:46
  surveillance.
• 11:48
  And
• 11:48
  we've
• 11:48
  seen
• 11:49
  seabird
• 11:50
  colonies
• 11:50
  particularly
• 11:51
  devastated.
• 11:52
  So
• 11:52
  we're
• 11:52
  talking
• 11:53
  about
• 11:53
  northern
• 11:53
  gannets
• 11:54
  and
• 11:55
  arctic
• 11:56
  terns
• 11:57
  and
• 11:57
  common
• 11:57
  tern
• 11:58
  colonies
• 11:58
  hit
• 11:59
  really
• 11:59
  badly.
• 12:00
  So,
• 12:00
  for
• 12:01
  example,
• 12:01
  in
• 12:01
  the
• 12:02
  UK
• 12:03
  greats
• 12:04
  skewer
• 12:04
  populations,
• 12:05
  we
• 12:06
  lost
• 12:06
  about
• 12:06
  70%
• 12:07
  of
• 12:07
  our
• 12:07
  breeding
• 12:08
  adults
• 12:08
  in
• 12:08
  a
• 12:09
  single
• 12:09
  year.
• 12:09
  Wow.
• 12:10
  I
• 12:10
  don't
• 12:10
  think
• 12:10
  a
• 12:11
  lot
• 12:11
  of
• 12:11
  people
• 12:11
  think
• 12:11
  about
• 12:11
  how
• 12:12
  long
• 12:12
  birds
• 12:12
  live,
• 12:13
  but
• 12:13
  these
• 12:13
  bird
• 12:14
  species
• 12:14
  you're
• 12:14
  talking
• 12:14
  about,
• 12:15
  like
• 12:15
  seabird
• 12:16
  species,
• 12:16
  are
• 12:16
  typically
• 12:17
  very,
• 12:17
  very,
• 12:17
  very
• 12:18
  long
• 12:18
  lived
• 12:19
  with
• 12:19
  very
• 12:19
  low
• 12:20
  adult
• 12:20
  mortality.
• 12:21
  And
• 12:21
  they
• 12:22
  have
• 12:22
  very
• 12:22
  low
• 12:22
  reproduction
• 12:23
  rates.
• 12:23
  So
• 12:24
  you
• 12:24
  need,
• 12:24
  you
• 12:25
  know,
• 12:25
  you
• 12:25
  need
• 12:25
  these
• 12:25
  old
• 12:25
  birds
• 12:26
  to
• 12:26
  be
• 12:26
  around
• 12:26
  a
• 12:27
  long
• 12:27
  time
• 12:28
  for
• 12:28
  these
• 12:28
  populations
• 12:29
  to
• 12:29
  be
• 12:29
  maintained.
• 12:29
  And
• 12:30
  if
• 12:30
  we're
• 12:30
  losing
• 12:31
  70%
• 12:32
  of
• 12:33
  a
• 12:33
  population
• 12:34
  of
• 12:34
  adult
• 12:34
  birds,
• 12:35
  that's
• 12:35
  like
• 12:35
  catastrophic.
• 12:36
  I
• 12:36
  don't
• 12:36
  know
• 12:37
  if
• 12:37
  you've
• 12:37
  ever
• 12:37
  seen
• 12:38
  any
• 12:38
  footage
• 12:39
  of
• 12:39
  a
• 12:40
  wild
• 12:40
  bird
• 12:40
  infected
• 12:40
  with
• 12:41
  flu.
• 12:41
  It
• 12:41
  usually
• 12:42
  involves
• 12:43
  initially
• 12:44
  some
• 12:44
  kind
• 12:44
  of
• 12:44
  respiratory
• 12:45
  infection.
• 12:47
  So
• 12:47
  sometimes
• 12:48
  we
• 12:48
  even
• 12:48
  see
• 12:49
  agonal
• 12:49
  breathing.
• 12:50
  So
• 12:50
  it's
• 12:51
  a
• 12:52
  case
• 12:52
  where
• 12:52
  the
• 12:53
  lungs
• 12:53
  are
• 12:54
  involuntarily
• 12:55
  actually
• 12:56
  expanding
• 12:56
  and
• 12:57
  collapsing.
• 12:59
  And
• 13:00
  so
• 13:00
  that's
• 13:00
  awful
• 13:01
  to
• 13:01
  see.
• 13:01
  They're
• 13:01
  often
• 13:03
  disoriented,
• 13:04
  uncoordinated.
• 13:05
  We've
• 13:05
  walked
• 13:06
  out,
• 13:06
  wings
• 13:07
  splayed,
• 13:07
  but
• 13:07
  they
• 13:08
  cannot
• 13:08
  fly
• 13:09
  away.
• 13:10
  Often
• 13:10
  we
• 13:10
  get
• 13:10
  reports
• 13:11
  of
• 13:11
  drunk
• 13:12
  birds.
• 13:13
  So
• 13:13
  that
• 13:13
  might
• 13:14
  give
• 13:14
  you
• 13:14
  an
• 13:14
  image
• 13:15
  of
• 13:15
  a
• 13:15
  bird
• 13:15
  that's
• 13:16
  walking
• 13:16
  around
• 13:17
  in
• 13:17
  circles
• 13:17
  or
• 13:17
  is
• 13:18
  completely
• 13:18
  unbalanced
• 13:19
  and
• 13:20
  disoriented.
• 13:22
  And
• 13:22
  of
• 13:23
  course
• 13:23
  there
• 13:23
  are
• 13:23
  these
• 13:23
  neurologic
• 13:24
  symptoms
• 13:24
  that
• 13:25
  contribute
• 13:25
  to
• 13:26
  some
• 13:26
  of
• 13:27
  the
• 13:27
  observations
• 13:27
  that
• 13:28
  we're
• 13:28
  seeing
• 13:28
  as
• 13:28
  well.
• 13:29
  In
• 13:30
  some
• 13:30
  cases
• 13:31
  diarrhea
• 13:33
  as
• 13:33
  well.
• 13:34
  But
• 13:34
  it's
• 13:36
  usually,
• 13:43
  Yeah,
• 13:44
  it's
• 13:45
  just
• 13:46
  this
• 13:48
  kind
• 13:48
  of,
• 13:48
  yeah,
• 13:49
  gruesome
• 13:50
  way
• 13:51
  to
• 13:51
  go.
• 13:51
  I
• 13:51
  don't
• 13:52
  know
• 13:52
  that
• 13:52
  I
• 13:52
  can
• 13:52
  explain
• 13:53
  it
• 13:53
  as
• 13:53
  being.
• 13:57
  I
• 13:57
  think
• 13:58
  it
• 13:58
  probably
• 13:58
  takes
• 13:59
  hours
• 13:59
  and
• 13:59
  it
• 13:59
  depends
• 13:59
  on
• 14:00
  the
• 14:00
  bird.
• 14:00
  But
• 14:01
  I
• 14:01
  think
• 14:02
  listeners,
• 14:03
  if
• 14:03
  they
• 14:03
  see
• 14:03
  anything
• 14:04
  out
• 14:04
  of
• 14:04
  the
• 14:04
  ordinary,
• 14:05
  it
• 14:05
  would
• 14:06
  be
• 14:06
  a
• 14:07
  bird
• 14:07
  that
• 14:07
  looks
• 14:09
  completely
• 14:10
  disoriented
• 14:11
  and
• 14:11
  is
• 14:12
  unable
• 14:13
  to
• 14:13
  fly,
• 14:13
  depending
• 14:13
  on
• 14:14
  what
• 14:14
  stage
• 14:14
  of
• 14:14
  infection
• 14:15
  that
• 14:15
  it's
• 14:15
  at.
• 14:17
  And
• 14:17
  it's
• 14:17
  usually
• 14:17
  heart
• 14:17
  wrenching.
• 14:18
  But
• 14:19
  I've
• 14:19
  also
• 14:19
  seen
• 14:19
  videos
• 14:20
  of
• 14:21
  common
• 14:21
  terns
• 14:22
  and
• 14:22
  they
• 14:22
  have
• 14:23
  really
• 14:23
  interesting
• 14:23
  behaviors
• 14:24
  where
• 14:25
  the
• 14:25
  other
• 14:26
  terns
• 14:26
  on
• 14:26
  the
• 14:26
  colony
• 14:27
  will
• 14:27
  push
• 14:28
  that
• 14:28
  infected
• 14:29
  bird
• 14:29
  that's
• 14:30
  like
• 14:30
  visibly
• 14:30
  ill
• 14:31
  and
• 14:31
  infected
• 14:32
  off
• 14:32
  the
• 14:32
  colony
• 14:33
  and
• 14:34
  effectively
• 14:34
  try
• 14:35
  and
• 14:35
  drown
• 14:35
  it.
• 14:36
  So
• 14:36
  there's
• 14:36
  something
• 14:36
  about
• 14:39
  protecting
• 14:39
  the
• 14:39
  bulk
• 14:40
  of
• 14:40
  the
• 14:40
  population.
• 14:40
  They
• 14:41
  do
• 14:41
  have
• 14:41
  a
• 14:41
  strong
• 14:42
  instinct
• 14:42
  to
• 14:42
  push
• 14:42
  away
• 14:43
  a
• 14:43
  bird
• 14:44
  that
• 14:44
  is
• 14:44
  not
• 14:45
  behaving
• 14:45
  regularly.
• 14:46
  That's
• 14:47
  kind
• 14:47
  of
• 14:47
  a
• 14:47
  dark
• 14:48
  and
• 14:48
  scary
• 14:48
  piece
• 14:48
  of
• 14:49
  some
• 14:49
  of
• 14:49
  the
• 14:49
  things
• 14:50
  that
• 14:50
  I've
• 14:50
  seen.
• 14:51
  But
• 14:52
  yeah,
• 14:55
  it's
• 14:55
  horrific
• 14:57
  to
• 14:57
  observe.
• 14:59
  Yeah.
• 14:59
  And
• 14:59
  thinking
• 15:00
  about
• 15:00
  the
• 15:00
  scale
• 15:00
  at
• 15:01
  which
• 15:01
  that's
• 15:01
  happening
• 15:01
  is
• 15:03
  kind
• 15:03
  of
• 15:03
  mind
• 15:03
  blowing.
• 15:06
  The
• 15:07
  question
• 15:07
  that
• 15:07
  obviously
• 15:07
  comes
• 15:08
  up
• 15:08
  right
• 15:08
  away
• 15:08
  is,
• 15:08
  is
• 15:09
  there
• 15:09
  any
• 15:09
  good
• 15:09
  news,
• 15:09
  like
• 15:10
  are
• 15:10
  there
• 15:10
  vaccines
• 15:11
  that
• 15:11
  work?
• 15:11
  Is
• 15:12
  there
• 15:12
  resistance
• 15:13
  that's
• 15:13
  evolving?
• 15:14
  Can
• 15:14
  we
• 15:14
  see
• 15:14
  that
• 15:14
  happening
• 15:15
  already?
• 15:16
  Or
• 15:16
  any
• 15:17
  other
• 15:17
  hopeful
• 15:17
  kind
• 15:18
  of
• 15:18
  adaptations
• 15:18
  that
• 15:19
  you
• 15:19
  know
• 15:20
  about
• 15:20
  or
• 15:20
  have
• 15:20
  been
• 15:20
  looking
• 15:21
  at.
• 15:21
  On
• 15:21
  the
• 15:21
  bright
• 15:22
  side,
• 15:23
  you
• 15:24
  know
• 15:24
  how
• 15:24
  we
• 15:24
  were
• 15:24
  saying
• 15:25
  that
• 15:25
  there's.
• 15:25
  In
• 15:26
  the
• 15:26
  US
• 15:26
  alone,
• 15:26
  we've
• 15:27
  had
• 15:27
  170
• 15:28
  species
• 15:28
  infected
• 15:30
  with
• 15:31
  avian
• 15:31
  influenza
• 15:32
  virus.
• 15:34
  That
• 15:34
  number
• 15:34
  has
• 15:35
  actually
• 15:35
  really
• 15:36
  stabilized
• 15:38
  in
• 15:38
  the
• 15:38
  last
• 15:39
  year.
• 15:40
  And
• 15:40
  it's
• 15:41
  now
• 15:41
  no
• 15:41
  longer
• 15:42
  rapidly
• 15:42
  expanding
• 15:43
  its
• 15:44
  host
• 15:44
  range.
• 15:45
  So
• 15:45
  it
• 15:45
  seems
• 15:45
  to
• 15:45
  be
• 15:46
  consistently
• 15:47
  occurring,
• 15:48
  if
• 15:48
  you
• 15:48
  can
• 15:48
  consider
• 15:49
  that
• 15:50
  a
• 15:51
  bright
• 15:51
  spot
• 15:52
  in
• 15:52
  the
• 15:52
  same
• 15:52
  species.
• 15:54
  Yeah.
• 15:54
  With
• 15:54
  fewer
• 15:55
  and
• 15:55
  fewer
• 15:55
  new
• 15:55
  species
• 15:56
  being
• 15:56
  infected.
• 15:57
  In
• 15:57
  other
• 15:57
  good
• 15:58
  news,
• 15:58
  the
• 15:58
  California
• 15:59
  Condor,
• 16:00
  which
• 16:01
  I
• 16:01
  think,
• 16:02
  honestly,
• 16:02
  that's
• 16:02
  a
• 16:03
  success
• 16:03
  story.
• 16:04
  Vaccines
• 16:04
  have
• 16:04
  been
• 16:05
  effective
• 16:05
  and
• 16:05
  we've
• 16:06
  seen
• 16:06
  rebounding
• 16:07
  populations,
• 16:07
  which
• 16:08
  is
• 16:08
  great
• 16:08
  news.
• 16:09
  I
• 16:10
  think
• 16:10
  the
• 16:10
  caveat
• 16:10
  with
• 16:11
  that
• 16:11
  is
• 16:11
  that
• 16:13
  vaccines
• 16:13
  are
• 16:13
  great
• 16:14
  for
• 16:15
  populations
• 16:16
  that
• 16:16
  are
• 16:16
  spatially
• 16:17
  clustered
• 16:18
  and
• 16:18
  small
• 16:19
  and
• 16:19
  they're
• 16:19
  not
• 16:19
  dispersed
• 16:21
  long
• 16:21
  and
• 16:21
  wide,
• 16:22
  and
• 16:22
  so
• 16:23
  they
• 16:23
  have
• 16:23
  like
• 16:23
  a
• 16:24
  dense
• 16:24
  colony,
• 16:24
  for
• 16:25
  example.
• 16:26
  But
• 16:27
  I
• 16:27
  don't
• 16:27
  know
• 16:27
  how
• 16:27
  practical
• 16:29
  that
• 16:29
  is
• 16:30
  for
• 16:30
  a
• 16:30
  lot
• 16:31
  of
• 16:31
  the
• 16:31
  wild
• 16:31
  birds,
• 16:32
  especially
• 16:32
  in
• 16:33
  North
• 16:33
  America.
• 16:34
  Yeah.
• 16:34
  You
• 16:34
  can't
• 16:34
  just
• 16:34
  push
• 16:35
  a
• 16:35
  text
• 16:35
  out
• 16:36
  and
• 16:36
  remind
• 16:36
  everyone
• 16:36
  that
• 16:37
  Safeway
• 16:37
  has
• 16:37
  the
• 16:38
  flu
• 16:38
  vaccine.
• 16:39
  It's
• 16:39
  interesting,
• 16:40
  you
• 16:41
  know,
• 16:41
  I
• 16:41
  guess
• 16:41
  for
• 16:42
  people
• 16:42
  that
• 16:42
  don't
• 16:42
  know
• 16:43
  there
• 16:43
  are
• 16:43
  vaccines
• 16:43
  that
• 16:44
  we
• 16:44
  can
• 16:44
  administer
• 16:45
  broadly
• 16:45
  because
• 16:45
  of
• 16:46
  they
• 16:46
  don't
• 16:46
  need
• 16:47
  to
• 16:47
  be
• 16:47
  injected.
• 16:47
  Right.
• 16:48
  Like
• 16:48
  the
• 16:48
  rabies
• 16:49
  vaccine.
• 16:50
  Oh,
• 16:50
  yes.
• 16:51
  Is
• 16:51
  dropped
• 16:51
  in
• 16:51
  little
• 16:52
  food
• 16:52
  pellets
• 16:52
  all
• 16:53
  over
• 16:53
  North
• 16:53
  America
• 16:54
  to
• 16:54
  keep
• 16:54
  rabies
• 16:54
  under
• 16:55
  control.
• 16:55
  But
• 16:56
  that
• 16:56
  just
• 16:56
  wouldn't
• 16:56
  work
• 16:57
  for
• 16:57
  this
• 16:57
  kind
• 16:58
  of
• 16:58
  virus.
• 16:58
  So
• 16:59
  I
• 16:59
  think
• 16:59
  the
• 16:59
  mutation
• 17:00
  rate
• 17:00
  is
• 17:00
  too
• 17:01
  high.
• 17:01
  So
• 17:02
  it's.
• 17:02
  It's
• 17:02
  constantly
• 17:03
  a
• 17:03
  need
• 17:03
  to
• 17:04
  make
• 17:04
  sure
• 17:04
  that
• 17:04
  we
• 17:05
  have
• 17:05
  a
• 17:05
  match
• 17:06
  between
• 17:07
  the
• 17:07
  antibodies
• 17:08
  and
• 17:09
  that
• 17:10
  the
• 17:10
  vaccine
• 17:11
  will
• 17:11
  teach
• 17:12
  these
• 17:12
  birds
• 17:13
  to
• 17:13
  produce
• 17:13
  an
• 17:14
  antibody
• 17:14
  response
• 17:15
  that
• 17:15
  can
• 17:15
  neutralize
• 17:15
  the
• 17:15
  virus.
• 17:16
  But
• 17:16
  do
• 17:16
  those
• 17:17
  antibodies
• 17:17
  match
• 17:18
  with
• 17:18
  what
• 17:18
  is
• 17:18
  circulating
• 17:20
  the
• 17:20
  next
• 17:20
  year
• 17:20
  or
• 17:21
  so
• 17:21
  on?
• 17:21
  So
• 17:21
  I
• 17:22
  think
• 17:22
  it's
• 17:22
  the
• 17:23
  similar
• 17:23
  reasons
• 17:23
  to
• 17:24
  why
• 17:24
  we
• 17:24
  have
• 17:24
  to
• 17:24
  update
• 17:25
  the
• 17:25
  human
• 17:25
  seasonal
• 17:26
  flu
• 17:26
  vaccine
• 17:26
  that's
• 17:27
  going
• 17:27
  on
• 17:27
  in
• 17:28
  wild
• 17:28
  birds
• 17:28
  too.
• 17:29
  So
• 17:29
  tricky.
• 17:30
  I
• 17:30
  think
• 17:30
  we
• 17:30
  do
• 17:30
  need
• 17:31
  tons
• 17:31
  more
• 17:32
  interest
• 17:33
  and
• 17:34
  progress
• 17:35
  in.
• 17:35
  In
• 17:35
  those
• 17:36
  areas
• 17:36
  of
• 17:36
  how
• 17:37
  to
• 17:37
  vaccinate
• 17:37
  and
• 17:37
  deliver
• 17:38
  therapeutics
• 17:39
  to
• 17:39
  wildlife.
• 17:39
  I
• 17:40
  think
• 17:40
  we
• 17:40
  haven't
• 17:41
  done
• 17:41
  enough
• 17:41
  and
• 17:41
  there's
• 17:41
  some
• 17:42
  really
• 17:42
  interesting
• 17:42
  technology
• 17:43
  that
• 17:44
  needs
• 17:44
  to
• 17:44
  be
• 17:44
  taken
• 17:44
  advantage
• 17:45
  of,
• 17:45
  and
• 17:46
  now
• 17:46
  is
• 17:46
  the
• 17:46
  time.
• 17:47
  How
• 17:47
  do
• 17:48
  you,
• 17:48
  as
• 17:48
  someone
• 17:48
  who's
• 17:49
  focused
• 17:49
  on
• 17:49
  this
• 17:49
  research,
• 17:50
  and
• 17:50
  you
• 17:51
  know,
• 17:51
  part
• 17:51
  of
• 17:51
  your
• 17:51
  website
• 17:52
  is
• 17:52
  Dead
• 17:52
  Bird
• 17:53
  Alert,
• 17:53
  where
• 17:53
  you
• 17:53
  want
• 17:54
  the
• 17:54
  public
• 17:55
  to
• 17:55
  let
• 17:55
  you
• 17:55
  know
• 17:55
  if
• 17:56
  they're
• 17:56
  finding
• 17:56
  certain
• 17:57
  types
• 17:57
  of
• 17:57
  dead
• 17:58
  birds.
• 17:58
  How
• 17:58
  do
• 17:58
  we
• 17:59
  balance
• 17:59
  public
• 17:59
  concern
• 18:00
  and
• 18:00
  science
• 18:01
  communication
• 18:01
  on
• 18:01
  topics
• 18:02
  like
• 18:02
  this,
• 18:02
  which
• 18:02
  are
• 18:02
  inherently
• 18:03
  heavy,
• 18:04
  but
• 18:04
  that
• 18:04
  we
• 18:04
  really
• 18:05
  need
• 18:05
  to
• 18:05
  lean
• 18:05
  into
• 18:05
  understanding
• 18:06
  more?
• 18:07
  Yes.
• 18:08
  So
• 18:08
  I
• 18:08
  think
• 18:09
  that
• 18:10
  I
• 18:11
  would
• 18:11
  say
• 18:11
  that
• 18:12
  we
• 18:12
  probably
• 18:12
  don't
• 18:13
  have
• 18:13
  enough
• 18:13
  awareness
• 18:14
  of
• 18:14
  what's
• 18:14
  going
• 18:15
  on
• 18:15
  with
• 18:15
  bird
• 18:16
  flu
• 18:16
  in
• 18:16
  wild
• 18:17
  birds
• 18:17
  right
• 18:18
  now,
• 18:18
  let
• 18:19
  alone
• 18:19
  poultry.
• 18:19
  As
• 18:20
  you're
• 18:20
  saying,
• 18:20
  let's
• 18:21
  just
• 18:21
  for
• 18:22
  a
• 18:22
  minute,
• 18:22
  just
• 18:23
  put
• 18:23
  a
• 18:23
  pin
• 18:24
  and
• 18:24
  maybe
• 18:24
  come
• 18:24
  back
• 18:24
  to
• 18:24
  the
• 18:24
  fact
• 18:25
  that
• 18:25
  this
• 18:25
  is
• 18:25
  billions
• 18:26
  of
• 18:26
  poultry.
• 18:26
  This
• 18:27
  is
• 18:27
  spilling
• 18:27
  over
• 18:28
  into
• 18:29
  Dairy
• 18:29
  workers
• 18:30
  in.
• 18:31
  In
• 18:31
  the
• 18:31
  US
• 18:32
  and,
• 18:33
  yeah,
• 18:33
  we
• 18:33
  haven't.
• 18:34
  Even
• 18:34
  talked
• 18:34
  about
• 18:34
  the
• 18:34
  fact
• 18:35
  that
• 18:35
  it's,
• 18:35
  like,
• 18:35
  jumped
• 18:36
  to
• 18:36
  mammals
• 18:37
  and
• 18:37
  is
• 18:37
  considered
• 18:38
  endemic
• 18:38
  now,
• 18:39
  I
• 18:39
  think,
• 18:39
  in
• 18:39
  cattle,
• 18:40
  in
• 18:40
  dairy
• 18:40
  cattle
• 18:40
  in
• 18:41
  the
• 18:41
  United
• 18:41
  States,
• 18:41
  which
• 18:41
  is
• 18:42
  for
• 18:43
  avian
• 18:43
  flu
• 18:43
  virus.
• 18:44
  That's
• 18:44
  crazy.
• 18:45
  It's
• 18:47
  the
• 18:48
  number
• 18:48
  of
• 18:48
  times
• 18:48
  I've
• 18:48
  fallen
• 18:49
  off
• 18:49
  my
• 18:49
  chair
• 18:50
  thinking
• 18:51
  that
• 18:51
  will
• 18:51
  never
• 18:52
  happen.
• 18:53
  And
• 18:54
  avian
• 18:55
  influenza
• 18:56
  keeps
• 18:56
  me
• 18:56
  extremely
• 18:56
  humble
• 18:57
  with
• 18:57
  learning
• 18:59
  again
• 18:59
  and
• 18:59
  again
• 19:00
  what
• 19:00
  it
• 19:00
  means
• 19:00
  to
• 19:01
  be
• 19:01
  a
• 19:01
  virus
• 19:01
  in
• 19:02
  animals
• 19:02
  and
• 19:02
  its
• 19:03
  ability
• 19:03
  to
• 19:04
  evolve.
• 19:04
  But
• 19:05
  this
• 19:05
  is
• 19:05
  really
• 19:05
  shocking
• 19:06
  and
• 19:06
  surprising
• 19:07
  is
• 19:08
  the
• 19:08
  number
• 19:08
  of
• 19:08
  cases.
• 19:08
  We've
• 19:09
  got,
• 19:09
  17
• 19:10
  states
• 19:10
  in
• 19:10
  the
• 19:10
  US
• 19:11
  in
• 19:12
  which
• 19:13
  this
• 19:13
  highly
• 19:14
  pathogenic
• 19:14
  H5N1
• 19:16
  clade
• 19:17
  has
• 19:17
  shifted
• 19:17
  into
• 19:18
  cattle.
• 19:19
  And
• 19:19
  it's
• 19:20
  not
• 19:20
  causing
• 19:20
  them
• 19:21
  to
• 19:21
  die,
• 19:22
  actually.
• 19:22
  So
• 19:23
  it's
• 19:23
  sort
• 19:23
  of
• 19:23
  reproducing
• 19:24
  in
• 19:24
  really
• 19:25
  high
• 19:25
  titers
• 19:26
  in.
• 19:26
  In
• 19:26
  milk.
• 19:27
  And
• 19:27
  that
• 19:28
  creates
• 19:28
  conditions
• 19:28
  for
• 19:29
  dairy
• 19:29
  workers
• 19:29
  to
• 19:30
  be
• 19:30
  exposed,
• 19:32
  especially
• 19:32
  if
• 19:33
  a
• 19:33
  lot
• 19:33
  of
• 19:33
  the
• 19:33
  mechanical
• 19:34
  machinery
• 19:34
  is
• 19:35
  not
• 19:35
  being
• 19:36
  cleaned
• 19:37
  fastidiously
• 19:38
  enough
• 19:39
  between
• 19:40
  milking
• 19:41
  cows.
• 19:41
  And
• 19:41
  so
• 19:42
  it's.
• 19:42
  It's
• 19:42
  just
• 19:43
  incredible.
• 19:44
  I
• 19:44
  will
• 19:45
  say,
• 19:45
  though,
• 19:45
  that
• 19:45
  that
• 19:45
  situation
• 19:46
  is
• 19:46
  really
• 19:46
  unique
• 19:47
  to
• 19:47
  the
• 19:47
  US
• 19:47
  we
• 19:48
  have
• 19:48
  not
• 19:48
  seen.
• 19:49
  Oh,
• 19:49
  it
• 19:49
  is,
• 19:50
  huh?
• 19:52
  Mm.
• 19:54
  It's
• 19:55
  really
• 19:55
  interesting.
• 19:56
  Europe's
• 19:56
  on
• 19:57
  high
• 19:57
  alert
• 19:57
  other
• 19:57
  places
• 19:58
  as
• 19:58
  well,
• 19:58
  but
• 19:58
  they
• 19:59
  just
• 19:59
  haven't
• 19:59
  seen
• 19:59
  it.
• 20:00
  Bird
• 20:00
  food
• 20:01
  typically
• 20:01
  sticks
• 20:01
  to
• 20:02
  aquatic
• 20:02
  birds,
• 20:03
  and
• 20:04
  I
• 20:04
  think
• 20:04
  that
• 20:04
  is
• 20:05
  broadly
• 20:05
  true.
• 20:06
  But
• 20:06
  we're
• 20:06
  discovering
• 20:07
  with
• 20:07
  this
• 20:08
  increase
• 20:08
  in
• 20:08
  host
• 20:09
  range
• 20:10
  that
• 20:10
  we
• 20:10
  definitely
• 20:11
  do
• 20:11
  have
• 20:11
  these
• 20:11
  cases
• 20:12
  of
• 20:13
  interesting
• 20:14
  passerines
• 20:14
  being
• 20:15
  impacted.
• 20:16
  I
• 20:16
  think
• 20:16
  what's
• 20:17
  interesting
• 20:18
  about
• 20:19
  starlings
• 20:20
  and
• 20:20
  flocking
• 20:20
  birds
• 20:21
  is
• 20:21
  that
• 20:21
  individually,
• 20:23
  it
• 20:23
  turns
• 20:23
  out,
• 20:23
  they're
• 20:24
  not
• 20:24
  that
• 20:24
  great
• 20:25
  at
• 20:25
  replicating
• 20:26
  the
• 20:26
  virus,
• 20:27
  but
• 20:27
  in
• 20:27
  really
• 20:28
  big
• 20:28
  numbers
• 20:29
  they
• 20:29
  can.
• 20:30
  And
• 20:30
  so
• 20:30
  it
• 20:31
  has
• 20:31
  to
• 20:31
  be
• 20:31
  that
• 20:32
  bird
• 20:32
  in
• 20:32
  a
• 20:32
  big,
• 20:34
  dense
• 20:35
  group
• 20:35
  of
• 20:35
  birds
• 20:36
  also
• 20:37
  coincidentally
• 20:38
  feeding
• 20:38
  on
• 20:38
  grain
• 20:39
  at
• 20:40
  an
• 20:40
  interface
• 20:40
  like
• 20:41
  a
• 20:41
  farm
• 20:41
  that
• 20:42
  creates
• 20:42
  those
• 20:42
  conditions.
• 20:43
  But
• 20:44
  I
• 20:44
  say
• 20:44
  that
• 20:46
  it's
• 20:46
  just
• 20:46
  a
• 20:46
  math
• 20:46
  game,
• 20:47
  right?
• 20:47
  I
• 20:47
  mean,
• 20:48
  we
• 20:48
  have
• 20:48
  more
• 20:48
  and
• 20:48
  more
• 20:48
  of
• 20:49
  those
• 20:49
  conditions
• 20:50
  that
• 20:50
  are
• 20:51
  occurring
• 20:52
  because
• 20:52
  of
• 20:53
  that
• 20:53
  really
• 20:54
  kind
• 20:54
  of
• 20:55
  increasing
• 20:55
  interface
• 20:56
  between
• 20:56
  wildlife
• 20:57
  and
• 20:57
  domestic
• 20:58
  animals
• 20:58
  and
• 20:58
  human
• 20:59
  activity.
• 21:00
  So,
• 21:00
  again,
• 21:00
  I
• 21:00
  think
• 21:01
  that's
• 21:01
  also
• 21:02
  part
• 21:02
  of
• 21:02
  this
• 21:02
  puzzle
• 21:03
  as
• 21:03
  well.
• 21:04
  So
• 21:04
  I
• 21:04
  think
• 21:04
  it's,
• 21:05
  you
• 21:05
  know,
• 21:05
  we
• 21:06
  say
• 21:06
  that
• 21:06
  it's
• 21:06
  still
• 21:07
  safe
• 21:07
  to
• 21:08
  put
• 21:08
  out
• 21:08
  your
• 21:08
  bird
• 21:08
  feeders.
• 21:09
  It
• 21:10
  shouldn't
• 21:10
  really
• 21:11
  transmit
• 21:11
  among
• 21:12
  our
• 21:12
  backyard
• 21:13
  birds.
• 21:13
  This
• 21:13
  is
• 21:14
  really
• 21:14
  rare
• 21:14
  cases,
• 21:15
  and
• 21:15
  we
• 21:15
  don't
• 21:16
  see
• 21:16
  really
• 21:16
  big
• 21:17
  mass
• 21:17
  mortalities
• 21:18
  in
• 21:18
  birds
• 21:18
  like
• 21:20
  American
• 21:21
  robins
• 21:21
  or
• 21:22
  jays,
• 21:23
  for
• 21:23
  example,
• 21:23
  those
• 21:24
  types
• 21:24
  of
• 21:24
  species.
• 21:25
  But
• 21:26
  keep
• 21:26
  your
• 21:27
  eyes
• 21:27
  peeled,
• 21:27
  because
• 21:28
  I
• 21:28
  think
• 21:28
  there
• 21:28
  are
• 21:28
  certain
• 21:29
  ecological
• 21:29
  conditions
• 21:30
  that
• 21:30
  do
• 21:31
  create
• 21:31
  these.
• 21:33
  You
• 21:33
  know,
• 21:33
  these
• 21:34
  favor
• 21:34
  these
• 21:35
  particular
• 21:35
  infections
• 21:36
  that
• 21:36
  are
• 21:36
  really,
• 21:38
  really
• 21:39
  interesting
• 21:40
  and
• 21:40
  obviously
• 21:41
  devastating
• 21:42
  as
• 21:42
  well.
• 21:42
  But
• 21:43
  there's
• 21:43
  so
• 21:43
  Many
• 21:44
  ways
• 21:44
  in
• 21:44
  which
• 21:44
  we're
• 21:45
  learning
• 21:46
  about
• 21:46
  birds
• 21:47
  through
• 21:47
  bird
• 21:48
  flu
• 21:48
  in
• 21:48
  the
• 21:49
  sense
• 21:49
  that
• 21:50
  we
• 21:50
  were
• 21:50
  talking
• 21:50
  about
• 21:51
  how
• 21:52
  wild
• 21:52
  mammals
• 21:53
  are
• 21:53
  being
• 21:53
  infected.
• 21:54
  And
• 21:55
  often
• 21:55
  these
• 21:55
  are
• 21:56
  carnivores.
• 21:57
  So,
• 21:57
  you
• 21:57
  know,
• 21:57
  red
• 21:57
  tailed
• 21:58
  hawks,
• 21:58
  along
• 21:58
  with
• 21:59
  red
• 21:59
  foxes
• 22:00
  and
• 22:00
  coyotes
• 22:01
  and
• 22:01
  bears,
• 22:02
  those
• 22:02
  food
• 22:03
  web
• 22:03
  interactions
• 22:03
  are
• 22:04
  playing
• 22:04
  a
• 22:04
  really
• 22:04
  big
• 22:04
  role
• 22:04
  in
• 22:05
  transmission
• 22:06
  up
• 22:06
  the
• 22:07
  food
• 22:07
  chain.
• 22:08
  And
• 22:08
  I
• 22:09
  think
• 22:09
  it's,
• 22:09
  you
• 22:10
  know,
• 22:10
  allowing
• 22:11
  us
• 22:11
  to
• 22:11
  sort
• 22:11
  of
• 22:11
  appreciate
• 22:12
  how
• 22:12
  complicated
• 22:13
  some
• 22:14
  of
• 22:14
  these
• 22:14
  food
• 22:14
  webs
• 22:15
  are
• 22:16
  and
• 22:17
  what
• 22:17
  kind
• 22:17
  of
• 22:17
  species
• 22:17
  are
• 22:18
  being
• 22:18
  preyed
• 22:18
  on.
• 22:19
  But
• 22:19
  for
• 22:19
  sure,
• 22:19
  I
• 22:19
  think
• 22:20
  for
• 22:20
  a
• 22:20
  lot
• 22:20
  of
• 22:20
  those
• 22:20
  carnivores,
• 22:22
  the
• 22:22
  fact
• 22:22
  that
• 22:22
  they
• 22:23
  might
• 22:23
  predate
• 22:23
  on
• 22:24
  wild
• 22:24
  birds
• 22:25
  is
• 22:25
  a
• 22:26
  big
• 22:26
  risk
• 22:26
  factor.
• 22:27
  I
• 22:27
  mean,
• 22:28
  there's
• 22:28
  like
• 22:28
  70
• 22:28
  species
• 22:29
  of
• 22:29
  mammals
• 22:30
  now
• 22:30
  that
• 22:30
  we've
• 22:30
  seen
• 22:31
  this
• 22:31
  jump
• 22:31
  into.
• 22:31
  And
• 22:32
  like
• 22:32
  you're
• 22:32
  saying
• 22:32
  they
• 22:33
  are
• 22:33
  mostly
• 22:33
  carnivores,
• 22:34
  so
• 22:34
  they
• 22:34
  probably,
• 22:36
  specifically
• 22:36
  the
• 22:36
  terrestrial
• 22:37
  ones
• 22:37
  are
• 22:37
  probably
• 22:38
  being
• 22:38
  infected
• 22:39
  by
• 22:39
  eating
• 22:39
  a
• 22:40
  bird
• 22:40
  that
• 22:40
  was
• 22:40
  easy
• 22:40
  to
• 22:40
  catch
• 22:41
  because
• 22:41
  that
• 22:42
  bird
• 22:42
  was
• 22:42
  dying
• 22:43
  from
• 22:43
  bird
• 22:44
  flu.
• 22:44
  Which
• 22:44
  is,
• 22:45
  yeah,
• 22:46
  crazy
• 22:46
  to
• 22:47
  think
• 22:47
  about.
• 22:47
  But
• 22:48
  I
• 22:48
  think
• 22:48
  you're
• 22:48
  right
• 22:48
  about
• 22:48
  that
• 22:49
  point
• 22:49
  where
• 22:50
  carnivores
• 22:51
  explain
• 22:51
  some
• 22:51
  of
• 22:51
  those
• 22:52
  mammalian
• 22:52
  infections
• 22:53
  that
• 22:53
  we're
• 22:53
  seeing.
• 22:54
  But
• 22:54
  then
• 22:55
  also
• 22:56
  it
• 22:56
  turns
• 22:56
  out
• 22:56
  that
• 22:57
  bird
• 22:57
  flu
• 22:57
  can
• 22:57
  spread
• 22:58
  amongst
• 22:59
  a
• 22:59
  lot
• 22:59
  of
• 23:00
  these
• 23:00
  marine
• 23:00
  mammals.
• 23:02
  And
• 23:02
  so
• 23:02
  I
• 23:02
  think
• 23:02
  we
• 23:03
  had
• 23:03
  big
• 23:04
  outbreaks
• 23:05
  going
• 23:05
  on
• 23:06
  in
• 23:06
  parts
• 23:06
  of
• 23:06
  South
• 23:07
  America,
• 23:07
  including
• 23:07
  Peru,
• 23:08
  of
• 23:08
  sea
• 23:09
  lions
• 23:09
  and
• 23:09
  dolphins,
• 23:10
  for
• 23:10
  example,
• 23:11
  have
• 23:11
  also
• 23:11
  been
• 23:11
  impacted.
• 23:12
  It's
• 23:13
  just
• 23:14
  this
• 23:14
  is
• 23:14
  an
• 23:14
  interesting
• 23:15
  virus
• 23:16
  that
• 23:16
  has
• 23:17
  some
• 23:17
  really
• 23:17
  interesting
• 23:18
  transmission
• 23:18
  pathways.
• 23:19
  And
• 23:20
  that
• 23:22
  factor
• 23:23
  where
• 23:24
  birds
• 23:24
  are
• 23:25
  in
• 23:25
  proximity
• 23:26
  to
• 23:27
  marine
• 23:27
  mammals
• 23:28
  or
• 23:28
  other
• 23:28
  marine
• 23:29
  wildlife
• 23:30
  also
• 23:30
  creates
• 23:31
  these
• 23:31
  conditions
• 23:32
  for
• 23:33
  really
• 23:33
  big
• 23:33
  spillovers.
• 23:34
  And
• 23:35
  we
• 23:35
  see
• 23:35
  giant
• 23:35
  mass
• 23:36
  mortalities
• 23:36
  in
• 23:37
  those
• 23:37
  species
• 23:38
  as
• 23:38
  a
• 23:38
  result,
• 23:38
  which
• 23:38
  is
• 23:39
  again,
• 23:40
  pretty
• 23:40
  humbling
• 23:40
  to
• 23:41
  see
• 23:41
  and
• 23:41
  watch.
• 23:43
  It's
• 23:43
  not
• 23:43
  easy
• 23:44
  to
• 23:44
  jump
• 23:44
  hosts.
• 23:45
  I
• 23:45
  mean,
• 23:45
  we
• 23:46
  focus
• 23:46
  on
• 23:46
  it
• 23:46
  because
• 23:46
  it's
• 23:47
  like,
• 23:47
  you
• 23:48
  know,
• 23:48
  outbreak.
• 23:49
  And
• 23:50
  obviously,
• 23:50
  like,
• 23:51
  we've
• 23:51
  been
• 23:51
  living
• 23:51
  through
• 23:52
  a
• 23:52
  pandemic
• 23:53
  where
• 23:53
  it
• 23:53
  was
• 23:53
  probably
• 23:55
  an
• 23:55
  organismal
• 23:56
  host
• 23:56
  that
• 23:56
  jumped
• 23:57
  into
• 23:57
  humans.
• 23:57
  And
• 23:58
  I
• 23:58
  think
• 23:58
  people
• 23:59
  think
• 23:59
  it's
• 24:00
  easier
• 24:00
  than
• 24:00
  it
• 24:00
  is,
• 24:00
  but
• 24:01
  it's
• 24:01
  actually
• 24:01
  quite
• 24:01
  difficult.
• 24:02
  So
• 24:02
  the
• 24:02
  fact
• 24:02
  that
• 24:02
  H5N1
• 24:04
  is
• 24:04
  this
• 24:04
  like
• 24:05
  super
• 24:06
  virus
• 24:07
  at
• 24:07
  jumping
• 24:07
  around
• 24:08
  is.
• 24:08
  Yeah.
• 24:09
  Something
• 24:10
  I
• 24:10
  had
• 24:10
  stressed
• 24:11
  to
• 24:11
  my
• 24:11
  ornithology
• 24:11
  class,
• 24:12
  like,
• 24:12
  is
• 24:12
  definitely
• 24:12
  something
• 24:12
  to
• 24:13
  watch
• 24:13
  for
• 24:13
  anyone
• 24:13
  listening,
• 24:14
  for
• 24:14
  birders
• 24:14
  listening,
• 24:15
  anyone
• 24:15
  out
• 24:15
  watching
• 24:15
  wildlife,
• 24:16
  if
• 24:16
  they
• 24:16
  see
• 24:17
  a
• 24:17
  dead
• 24:17
  bird,
• 24:18
  what
• 24:18
  are
• 24:18
  your
• 24:19
  recommendations
• 24:19
  for
• 24:19
  what
• 24:20
  they
• 24:20
  should
• 24:20
  do?
• 24:22
  Document
• 24:22
  it,
• 24:22
  if
• 24:22
  you
• 24:23
  can,
• 24:23
  from
• 24:23
  a
• 24:23
  safe
• 24:23
  distance.
• 24:24
  And
• 24:24
  then
• 24:25
  it's
• 24:25
  worth.
• 24:26
  Every
• 24:26
  state
• 24:27
  has
• 24:27
  an
• 24:28
  agency
• 24:28
  where
• 24:28
  they're
• 24:29
  actually
• 24:29
  counting
• 24:30
  and
• 24:30
  reporting
• 24:30
  dead
• 24:31
  birds.
• 24:32
  So,
• 24:32
  okay,
• 24:33
  it's
• 24:33
  usually
• 24:34
  at
• 24:34
  the
• 24:34
  state
• 24:35
  level
• 24:36
  where
• 24:36
  there's
• 24:37
  some
• 24:37
  kind
• 24:37
  of
• 24:39
  repository
• 24:40
  of
• 24:40
  that
• 24:40
  kind
• 24:40
  of
• 24:40
  information.
• 24:41
  For
• 24:41
  sure,
• 24:41
  in
• 24:42
  Colorado,
• 24:42
  it's
• 24:42
  Colorado
• 24:43
  Parks
• 24:43
  and
• 24:43
  Wildlife.
• 24:44
  But
• 24:44
  I
• 24:44
  think
• 24:44
  if
• 24:45
  folks
• 24:45
  look
• 24:46
  up
• 24:46
  like
• 24:47
  bird
• 24:47
  flu
• 24:47
  report,
• 24:48
  it
• 24:48
  shouldn't
• 24:49
  be
• 24:49
  too
• 24:49
  difficult.
• 24:49
  And
• 24:50
  like
• 24:50
  you
• 24:50
  said,
• 24:50
  it's
• 24:50
  usually
• 24:51
  state
• 24:51
  level.
• 24:51
  Yeah.
• 24:51
  There's
• 24:52
  some
• 24:53
  good
• 24:53
  apps.
• 24:53
  So
• 24:54
  Inaturalist
• 24:55
  is
• 24:55
  starting
• 24:55
  to
• 24:56
  include
• 24:57
  dead
• 24:58
  beached
• 24:58
  birds
• 24:58
  or
• 24:59
  dead
• 24:59
  birds,
• 25:00
  particular
• 25:01
  group
• 25:01
  that
• 25:01
  you
• 25:01
  can
• 25:02
  document
• 25:03
  your
• 25:03
  photo
• 25:03
  and
• 25:04
  tag
• 25:04
  them.
• 25:05
  And
• 25:05
  those
• 25:05
  are
• 25:05
  really,
• 25:05
  really
• 25:06
  good.
• 25:06
  They're
• 25:06
  often
• 25:07
  community
• 25:07
  run
• 25:08
  and
• 25:08
  they
• 25:08
  get
• 25:08
  really,
• 25:09
  really
• 25:09
  good
• 25:09
  information
• 25:10
  from
• 25:11
  coastal
• 25:11
  locations
• 25:12
  that
• 25:12
  we
• 25:12
  see.
• 25:13
  So
• 25:13
  they've
• 25:14
  provided
• 25:14
  a
• 25:14
  bit
• 25:15
  of
• 25:15
  a
• 25:15
  model
• 25:15
  for
• 25:15
  how
• 25:16
  it
• 25:16
  could
• 25:16
  work,
• 25:17
  integrating
• 25:17
  an
• 25:17
  app
• 25:18
  as
• 25:18
  well
• 25:18
  as
• 25:19
  citizen
• 25:19
  science,
• 25:19
  for
• 25:20
  sure.
• 25:20
  So
• 25:21
  we've
• 25:21
  reached
• 25:21
  the
• 25:21
  part
• 25:21
  of
• 25:22
  the
• 25:22
  show
• 25:22
  we
• 25:22
  call
• 25:22
  that's
• 25:23
  BS
• 25:23
  or
• 25:23
  that's
• 25:23
  Bird
• 25:24
  Stuff,
• 25:24
  where
• 25:24
  we
• 25:24
  give
• 25:24
  our
• 25:25
  guests
• 25:25
  an
• 25:25
  opportunity
• 25:26
  to
• 25:26
  debunk
• 25:26
  a
• 25:26
  myth
• 25:27
  that
• 25:27
  ruffles
• 25:27
  their
• 25:28
  feathers
• 25:28
  or
• 25:28
  to
• 25:28
  share
• 25:29
  a
• 25:29
  fact
• 25:29
  that
• 25:29
  they
• 25:29
  think
• 25:29
  our
• 25:29
  listeners
• 25:30
  should
• 25:30
  know.
• 25:31
  So.
• 25:31
  So,
• 25:31
  Nicola,
• 25:32
  what
• 25:32
  do
• 25:32
  you
• 25:32
  want
• 25:32
  to
• 25:32
  call
• 25:32
  BS
• 25:33
  on?
• 25:34
  I
• 25:34
  want
• 25:34
  to
• 25:35
  call
• 25:35
  BS
• 25:35
  on
• 25:35
  the
• 25:36
  fact
• 25:36
  that
• 25:37
  wild
• 25:37
  birds
• 25:38
  are
• 25:39
  key
• 25:39
  to
• 25:40
  the
• 25:40
  evolution
• 25:40
  of
• 25:40
  this
• 25:41
  virus.
• 25:41
  That
• 25:41
  is
• 25:42
  not
• 25:42
  at
• 25:42
  all
• 25:42
  the
• 25:42
  case.
• 25:43
  Evolution
• 25:44
  of
• 25:45
  highly
• 25:45
  pathogenic
• 25:46
  avian
• 25:46
  influenza
• 25:47
  only
• 25:47
  happens
• 25:48
  in
• 25:49
  domestic
• 25:49
  poultry.
• 25:50
  And
• 25:50
  so
• 25:51
  in
• 25:51
  many
• 25:51
  cases,
• 25:51
  wild
• 25:52
  birds
• 25:52
  are
• 25:52
  just
• 25:52
  the
• 25:52
  victims
• 25:53
  of
• 25:54
  this
• 25:54
  interface
• 25:55
  and
• 25:55
  spread.
• 25:56
  So,
• 25:57
  for
• 25:57
  example,
• 25:58
  this
• 25:59
  is
• 25:59
  a
• 25:59
  virus
• 26:00
  that
• 26:01
  has
• 26:01
  evolved
• 26:02
  to
• 26:02
  become
• 26:02
  more
• 26:03
  deadly
• 26:04
  because
• 26:04
  it's
• 26:05
  in
• 26:05
  a
• 26:05
  particular
• 26:05
  setting
• 26:06
  where
• 26:06
  there's
• 26:07
  large
• 26:07
  numbers
• 26:08
  of
• 26:08
  animals
• 26:09
  that
• 26:09
  are
• 26:09
  really
• 26:10
  immunosusceptible.
• 26:12
  They're
• 26:12
  often
• 26:13
  genetically
• 26:14
  similar
• 26:15
  or
• 26:15
  clonal,
• 26:16
  and
• 26:16
  the
• 26:17
  virus
• 26:17
  does
• 26:17
  really
• 26:17
  well
• 26:18
  in
• 26:18
  those
• 26:18
  types
• 26:18
  of
• 26:19
  conditions.
• 26:20
  And
• 26:20
  there
• 26:20
  are
• 26:20
  no
• 26:21
  consequences
• 26:22
  to
• 26:22
  evolving
• 26:23
  to
• 26:23
  become
• 26:24
  more
• 26:24
  deadly
• 26:24
  or
• 26:25
  virulent.
• 26:25
  Then
• 26:26
  because
• 26:26
  of
• 26:26
  the
• 26:26
  really
• 26:27
  high
• 26:27
  turnover
• 26:28
  of
• 26:29
  production
• 26:29
  of
• 26:30
  particular
• 26:30
  poultry
• 26:31
  species,
• 26:32
  that
• 26:33
  scenario
• 26:33
  would
• 26:34
  never
• 26:34
  happen
• 26:34
  in
• 26:34
  the
• 26:35
  wild.
• 26:35
  As
• 26:36
  we
• 26:36
  know,
• 26:36
  there's
• 26:36
  this
• 26:37
  virulence
• 26:37
  transmission
• 26:38
  trade
• 26:38
  off
• 26:39
  with
• 26:39
  viruses,
• 26:40
  and
• 26:41
  it's
• 26:42
  more
• 26:42
  important
• 26:42
  for
• 26:43
  the
• 26:43
  virus
• 26:43
  to
• 26:43
  actually
• 26:45
  transmit
• 26:45
  and
• 26:46
  spread
• 26:47
  rather
• 26:47
  than
• 26:48
  kill
• 26:48
  its
• 26:48
  host.
• 26:49
  And
• 26:49
  so
• 26:50
  we're
• 26:50
  hoping
• 26:51
  actually
• 26:51
  that
• 26:51
  over
• 26:52
  time
• 26:52
  we
• 26:52
  might
• 26:52
  see
• 26:55
  some
• 26:55
  of
• 26:55
  that
• 26:55
  occurring
• 26:56
  in
• 26:56
  wild
• 26:57
  bird
• 26:57
  populations
• 26:58
  across
• 26:58
  the
• 26:58
  world
• 26:59
  in
• 26:59
  response
• 27:00
  to
• 27:01
  influenza,
• 27:01
  in
• 27:02
  the
• 27:02
  sense
• 27:02
  that
• 27:02
  they
• 27:03
  can
• 27:03
  impose
• 27:04
  an
• 27:05
  immune
• 27:05
  selection
• 27:05
  or
• 27:06
  immune
• 27:06
  pressure
• 27:07
  on
• 27:07
  the
• 27:07
  virus
• 27:08
  to
• 27:08
  stop
• 27:08
  being
• 27:09
  so
• 27:09
  deadly
• 27:09
  and
• 27:10
  actually
• 27:10
  recover.
• 27:11
  So
• 27:11
  we
• 27:11
  might
• 27:11
  start
• 27:12
  to
• 27:12
  see
• 27:12
  evidence
• 27:12
  of
• 27:13
  that
• 27:13
  in
• 27:13
  the
• 27:13
  wild.
• 27:14
  But
• 27:15
  poultry
• 27:16
  is
• 27:16
  often
• 27:17
  the
• 27:17
  root
• 27:17
  of
• 27:17
  the
• 27:17
  problem.
• 27:18
  And
• 27:19
  in
• 27:19
  thinking
• 27:20
  about
• 27:20
  that,
• 27:20
  I
• 27:20
  think
• 27:21
  there's
• 27:21
  lots
• 27:22
  of
• 27:22
  different
• 27:22
  ways
• 27:22
  and
• 27:23
  solutions
• 27:24
  to
• 27:24
  come
• 27:25
  to
• 27:25
  terms
• 27:25
  with
• 27:26
  avian
• 27:26
  influenza
• 27:27
  that
• 27:27
  exist
• 27:28
  when
• 27:28
  we're
• 27:28
  talking
• 27:28
  about
• 27:29
  poultry,
• 27:29
  that
• 27:30
  are
• 27:30
  much
• 27:30
  harder
• 27:31
  to
• 27:31
  implement
• 27:31
  when
• 27:31
  we're
• 27:32
  talking
• 27:32
  about
• 27:33
  influenza
• 27:34
  spreads
• 27:34
  in
• 27:35
  nature.
• 27:36
  Well,
• 27:36
  Nicola,
• 27:36
  thanks
• 27:37
  so
• 27:37
  much
• 27:37
  for
• 27:37
  joining
• 27:37
  us.
• 27:38
  This
• 27:38
  is
• 27:38
  obviously
• 27:38
  a
• 27:39
  really
• 27:39
  heavy
• 27:39
  subject,
• 27:39
  but
• 27:40
  it's
• 27:40
  a
• 27:40
  really
• 27:40
  important
• 27:40
  one,
• 27:41
  and
• 27:41
  we
• 27:41
  appreciate
• 27:41
  you
• 27:41
  sharing
• 27:42
  your
• 27:42
  expertise
• 27:42
  with
• 27:43
  us.
• 27:43
  It's
• 27:43
  a
• 27:43
  pleasure.
• 27:44
  Thanks,
• 27:44
  Scott,
• 27:44
  for
• 27:45
  having
• 27:45
  me.
• 27:47
  Okay,
• 27:47
  so
• 27:48
  birds
• 27:48
  are
• 27:48
  dinosaurs,
• 27:48
  and
• 27:49
  around
• 27:49
  here
• 27:49
  we
• 27:49
  like
• 27:49
  our
• 27:50
  snacks.
• 27:50
  So
• 27:50
  we
• 27:50
  end
• 27:51
  each
• 27:51
  episode
• 27:51
  with
• 27:51
  a
• 27:51
  dinosaur
• 27:52
  nugget.
• 27:53
  Today's
• 27:53
  dinosaur
• 27:54
  nugget
• 27:54
  is
• 27:54
  that
• 27:54
  observation
• 27:55
  is
• 27:55
  a
• 27:55
  critically
• 27:56
  important
• 27:56
  tool
• 27:56
  in
• 27:57
  combating
• 27:57
  bird
• 27:58
  flu.
• 27:58
  What
• 27:58
  we
• 27:59
  know
• 27:59
  about
• 27:59
  bird
• 27:59
  flu
• 28:00
  in
• 28:00
  wild
• 28:00
  populations
• 28:01
  has
• 28:01
  been
• 28:01
  greatly
• 28:01
  informed
• 28:02
  by
• 28:02
  birders
• 28:02
  and
• 28:02
  citizen
• 28:03
  scientists.
• 28:04
  I
• 28:04
  encourage
• 28:05
  you
• 28:05
  to
• 28:05
  keep
• 28:05
  an
• 28:05
  eye
• 28:05
  out
• 28:06
  on
• 28:06
  your
• 28:06
  surroundings,
• 28:07
  document
• 28:07
  and
• 28:07
  report
• 28:08
  unusual
• 28:08
  bird
• 28:09
  behaviors
• 28:09
  or
• 28:09
  deaths
• 28:10
  to
• 28:10
  help
• 28:10
  your
• 28:10
  local
• 28:11
  authorities
• 28:11
  track
• 28:11
  the
• 28:12
  impact
• 28:12
  of
• 28:12
  this
• 28:12
  unprecedented
• 28:13
  virus.
• 28:15
  That's
• 28:15
  a
• 28:15
  wrap
• 28:15
  on
• 28:16
  this
• 28:16
  week's
• 28:16
  episode.
• 28:16
  Ok,
• 28:17
  but
• 28:17
  bird
• 28:17
  flu
• 28:18
  is
• 28:18
  really
• 28:18
  bad,
• 28:18
  right?
• 28:19
  If
• 28:19
  you
• 28:20
  like
• 28:20
  this
• 28:20
  episode,
• 28:20
  leave
• 28:21
  a
• 28:21
  comment
• 28:21
  like
• 28:21
  and
• 28:22
  subscribe.
• 28:22
  We'll
• 28:22
  catch
• 28:23
  you
• 28:23
  next
• 28:23
  time.
• 28:23
  Bye.
• 28:28
  Okay,
• 28:29
  but
• 28:29
  Birds
• 28:30
  is
• 28:30
  hosted
• 28:30
  by
• 28:30
  Scott
• 28:31
  Taylor
• 28:31
  with
• 28:32
  production
• 28:32
  and
• 28:32
  creative
• 28:33
  by
• 28:33
  Zach
• 28:33
  Carl.