Latest / Pod Save America / “Davos confessions.”
Transcript
- 0:20Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
- 0:22Speaker 2: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
- 0:23Speaker 1: In studio.
- 0:24Speaker 2: In studio.
- 0:25Speaker 3: What a pleasure.
- 0:26Speaker 2: It's a real frequent occurrence here in 2020.
- 0:27Speaker 3: I love it.
- 0:29Speaker 1: On today's pod, we're going to talk about the first
- 0:31Speaker 1: few days of Donald Trump's impeachment trial, how it's affecting
- 0:34Speaker 1: the 2020 primary, and where the race is with less
- 0:37Speaker 1: than two weeks until Iowa. It's like one and a half.
- 0:40Speaker 2: Holy shit. That's what I would say.
- 0:42Speaker 1: I can't believe it. Later, you'll hear Dan's interview with
- 0:45Speaker 1: Desmond Meade of the Florida Rights Restoration Coalition, who's fighting
- 0:48Speaker 1: the Republican effort to keep returning citizens from voting. We
- 0:51Speaker 1: also want to give a huge congratulations to DeRay, Brittany, Clint, Sam,
- 0:56Speaker 1: and the entire Pod Save the People crew. for taking
- 0:58Speaker 1: home Best Political Podcast at the iHeartRadio Podcast Awards last weekend.
- 1:04Speaker 1: This crew is brilliant, inspiring. They're doing incredible work every
- 1:07Speaker 1: week on their pod. So if you don't already, make
- 1:10Speaker 1: sure you subscribe.
- 1:11Speaker 3: Do it.
- 1:12Speaker 1: Why aren't you subscribed? That's fucking crazy. That's a great question.
- 1:14Speaker 1: This week they talked to Brittany Young, who uses the
- 1:16Speaker 1: Baltimore dirt bike community to inspire interest in STEM.
- 1:20Speaker 2: That was a plot twist.
- 1:21Speaker 1: That was a plot. I bet you didn't see that coming.
- 1:23Speaker 2: I did not.
- 1:24Speaker 1: That's what happens on Pod Save the People. It's all
- 1:25Speaker 1: kinds of interesting topics. Also, we have an announcement. We
- 1:29Speaker 1: have a brand new newsletter coming from Crooked's editor-in-chief, Brian Boitler,
- 1:33Speaker 1: called Big Tent. Big Tent.
- 1:36Speaker 2: Circus coverage.
- 1:37Speaker 1: That's right. Every Friday, Brian will walk you through the
- 1:39Speaker 1: latest developments in the Democratic Party's journey to take back
- 1:42Speaker 1: the White House in 2020 and talk about all the
- 1:45Speaker 1: debates within the party, what matters, and what's at stake.
- 1:49Speaker 1: The first newsletter comes out January 31st, but you can
- 1:52Speaker 1: subscribe today at crooked.com slash big tent. I'm excited for
- 1:57Speaker 1: this one.
- 1:58Speaker 2: I'm excited as well.
- 2:00Speaker 1: Dan, you have an Untrumping America announcement for us?
- 2:04Speaker 2: We do because it's 2020 and it's before February 18th,
- 2:08Speaker 2: the date the book comes out.
- 2:09Speaker 1: Wow, that's coming fast.
- 2:10Speaker 2: This is almost like an announcement. You're telling me, brother.
- 2:13Speaker 2: This is like an announcement. It's a pre-announcement, I guess
- 2:16Speaker 2: you will. We will announce next week all of the
- 2:19Speaker 2: tour stops. We are going to be traveling all over
- 2:21Speaker 2: the country, including many battleground states.
- 2:23Speaker 4: Nice.
- 2:24Speaker 1: Smart.
- 2:24Speaker 3: Yes.
- 2:24Speaker 1: It's important to go there.
- 2:26Speaker 2: You don't want to miss one, so I've heard. But
- 2:29Speaker 2: before that, I want to flag just two events because
- 2:31Speaker 2: they were the first two events that are coming up
- 2:32Speaker 2: relatively quickly, which is on February 19th, I will be
- 2:36Speaker 2: at the 92nd Street Y, New York City. And on
- 2:40Speaker 2: February 20th, I will be at the Six and I
- 2:43Speaker 2: Synagogue in Washington, D.C., two places that I was fortunate
- 2:46Speaker 2: enough to visit during the last book tour, and they
- 2:48Speaker 2: were great events. You can get your tickets now. You
- 2:51Speaker 2: can find more information on those events and some of
- 2:54Speaker 2: the other forthcoming ones at untrummingamerica.com slash tour.
- 2:58Speaker 1: Excellent. All right, let's get into it. The House impeachment
- 3:01Speaker 1: managers have begun their opening arguments, and here's the front
- 3:04Speaker 1: page of the New York Times after the first day.
- 3:06Speaker 1: Democrats present scathing case for convicting Trump. I'll take that headline.
- 3:11Speaker 2: Yeah, that's great.
- 3:12Speaker 1: No time. As you know, once the headlines are right,
- 3:16Speaker 1: we win. That's how it's worked in politics.
- 3:19Speaker 2: I can feel the momentum shift in Starbucks. Actually, they
- 3:22Speaker 2: don't even sell... I.
- 3:23Speaker 1: Don't know where you can find a hard copy. Adam
- 3:26Speaker 1: Schiff and six other impeachment managers presented about eight hours
- 3:29Speaker 1: worth of evidence detailing Trump's scheme to cheat in the
- 3:32Speaker 1: 2020 election by pressuring a foreign government to announce a
- 3:35Speaker 1: phony investigation into Joe Biden. But the core of their
- 3:38Speaker 1: argument on Wednesday was basically directed towards a handful of
- 3:41Speaker 1: Republican senators who might vote with the Democrats to subpoena
- 3:45Speaker 1: the documents and witnesses the White House has blocked. It
- 3:48Speaker 1: was an argument made very powerfully by Adam Schiff, particularly
- 3:52Speaker 1: in his closing statement. Let's play the clip.
- 3:54Speaker 5: One of the things that's been so striking to me
- 3:56Speaker 5: about that as I watch these witnesses like Maria Yovanovitch
- 3:59Speaker 5: and Ambassador Taylor and David Holmes and others, Dr.
- 4:03Speaker 2: Hill, is how much.
- 4:08Speaker 5: These dedicated officials were willing to risk their career, the
- 4:13Speaker 5: beginning of their career or the middle of their career
- 4:16Speaker 5: or late in their career, when they had everything to lose.
- 4:23Speaker 5: But people senior to them who have every advantage, who
- 4:28Speaker 5: sit in positions of power, lack that same basic commitment,
- 4:36Speaker 5: lack that same basic willingness to put their country first
- 4:42Speaker 5: and expose wrongdoing.
- 4:47Speaker 2: Why is it that.
- 4:48Speaker 5: Colonel Vindman, who worked for Fiona Hill, who worked for
- 4:56Speaker 5: John Bolton and Dr. Kupperman, why is it that they
- 4:59Speaker 5: were willing to stick their neck out and answer lawful
- 5:03Speaker 5: subpoenas when their bosses wouldn't? I don't know that I
- 5:08Speaker 5: can answer that question, but I just can tell you
- 5:10Speaker 5: I have such admiration for the fact they did. I think,
- 5:19Speaker 5: and I think this is some form of cosmic justice,
- 5:22Speaker 5: that this ambassador that was so ruthlessly smeared.
- 5:28Speaker 2: Is now a hero for her courage. There is justice
- 5:32Speaker 2: in that.
- 5:35Speaker 5: But what will really vindicate that leap of faith that
- 5:38Speaker 5: she took is if we show the same courage.
- 5:45Speaker 2: They risked everything.
- 5:48Speaker 1: Their careers.
- 5:51Speaker 5: And yes, I know what you're asked to decide may
- 5:53Speaker 5: risk yours too. But if they could show the courage,
- 6:02Speaker 5: so can we.
- 6:03Speaker 1: Dan, how do you think the trial is going so far?
- 6:05Speaker 2: I actually have a lot of.
- 6:08Speaker 1: Deep breath.
- 6:09Speaker 2: Well, yes, deep breath. I have a lot of, I think,
- 6:12Speaker 2: complex emotions about it. I watched a bunch of it yesterday.
- 6:17Speaker 4: And.
- 6:17Speaker 2: I think the first emotion is pride and pride in
- 6:22Speaker 2: the Democrats from Schiff on down to everyone involved in
- 6:25Speaker 2: this process because they are standing amidst an epic shit
- 6:30Speaker 2: show of dumb fuckery that is American politics in the
- 6:33Speaker 2: Trump era. And they are treating their jobs with the
- 6:37Speaker 2: utmost respect for the process, the constitution, the gravity of
- 6:40Speaker 2: the moment. They are being serious. They are being thoughtful.
- 6:43Speaker 2: They are performing their duties exactly.
- 6:46Speaker 3: As you would expect.
- 6:48Speaker 2: Then it makes me fucking insane that the Republican Party
- 6:54Speaker 2: gives zero fucks about any of this. Some of them
- 6:56Speaker 2: can't even be bothered to sit in their chairs long
- 6:59Speaker 2: enough to listen to it. They keep saying, I'm not
- 7:02Speaker 2: hearing anything new while voting to prevent the introduction of
- 7:06Speaker 2: new evidence.
- 7:07Speaker 1: Which is said to reporter after reporter, which is the
- 7:12Speaker 1: stupidest spin I've ever heard in my entire life. And
- 7:15Speaker 1: I would call it that, except it seems to be
- 7:17Speaker 1: working on a whole fucking... cohort in the media.
- 7:20Speaker 2: It's getting regurgitated because stenography is a huge part of
- 7:25Speaker 2: journalism in the Twitter age where you get a quote
- 7:27Speaker 2: and then you tweet the quote out and where you
- 7:30Speaker 2: can't put context in 280 characters. Then it makes me,
- 7:34Speaker 2: I don't know, I guess fear is my third emotion
- 7:38Speaker 2: on this, which is we're sitting here with like a
- 7:44Speaker 2: crystal clear, perfect example of abuse of power. Perfect example.
- 7:50Speaker 2: And the evidence could not be more clear-cut. The president's
- 7:53Speaker 2: chief of staff has admitted it on camera. The president
- 7:55Speaker 2: has admitted it on camera. The president has tweeted it
- 7:56Speaker 2: out for posterity. We all know what happened. And one
- 8:01Speaker 2: half of our political system, the part, refuses to acknowledge that.
- 8:06Speaker 2: And the reason that is scary is we are in
- 8:10Speaker 2: a situation where a majority of the country believes this
- 8:13Speaker 2: president committed a crime and should be removed from office.
- 8:16Speaker 2: And that president received 3 million fewer votes, and he
- 8:20Speaker 2: is being protected by a Senate majority that is represented
- 8:24Speaker 2: by many fewer votes than the Democrats. And so you
- 8:28Speaker 2: have this, you have sort of minority criminal immunity for
- 8:31Speaker 2: a president who can't win the popular vote. And that
- 8:33Speaker 2: says something about the state of American democracy that is
- 8:37Speaker 2: much bigger, I think, than whether Trump is going to
- 8:39Speaker 2: get a slap on the wrist or get removed from office.
- 8:41Speaker 2: It says we have a giant problem in this country.
- 8:44Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, there's been a lot of debate since
- 8:47Speaker 1: Trump became president about how our institutions have held up
- 8:50Speaker 1: in the face of a quasi-authoritarian, at best, quasi. But
- 8:56Speaker 1: the Republican Party is a major institution in American politics,
- 9:00Speaker 1: and it has been completely destroyed. I mean, they're not
- 9:05Speaker 1: even putting up any kind of legitimate defense. They're not trying.
- 9:11Speaker 1: They're treating it as a joke. They are offering contradictory
- 9:16Speaker 1: explanations every other day. It's a fucking joke what they say.
- 9:20Speaker 1: I mean, like, it is so completely obvious how guilty
- 9:25Speaker 1: the president is of what they are alleging he did,
- 9:29Speaker 1: and they just don't fucking care. And not even the people,
- 9:32Speaker 1: I mean, like, and you can see, look, Susan Collins,
- 9:35Speaker 1: Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney, maybe Lamar Alexander, maybe a few
- 9:40Speaker 1: others may vote for witnesses and documents, but you can
- 9:42Speaker 1: tell even if they take that vote, It is a
- 9:46Speaker 1: vote to appear somewhat reasonable because they are going to
- 9:49Speaker 1: take the ultimate vote to acquit the man. And they
- 9:53Speaker 1: want to at least appear reasonable to get the documents
- 9:55Speaker 1: and witnesses.
- 9:56Speaker 4: Right?
- 9:57Speaker 1: Like, I don't see any. And we don't even know
- 9:59Speaker 1: if they'll take that vote. but you can see their
- 10:01Speaker 1: political strategies telling them, well, you need to be an
- 10:04Speaker 1: independent voice. You need to look like you have some
- 10:06Speaker 1: distance from Trump. If you want to win a tough reelection,
- 10:08Speaker 1: if you're Susan Collins, or if you're Cory Gardner, or
- 10:10Speaker 1: maybe Martha McSally or Tom Tillis, but it seems unlikely
- 10:13Speaker 1: with those two. So here's one way to show some
- 10:15Speaker 1: distance from Trump, vote for the witnesses and documents and
- 10:18Speaker 1: then vote to acquit. But it doesn't seem... I don't
- 10:21Speaker 1: know unless Mitt Romney surprises us or Lamar Alexander or
- 10:25Speaker 1: someone who's not running again or who's very, very safe.
- 10:27Speaker 1: I don't see anyone voting to convict this man.
- 10:33Speaker 2: I agree with that. And I will also be fucking
- 10:35Speaker 2: knocked on my ass shocked if they vote for witnesses.
- 10:39Speaker 2: If enough Republicans vote for witnesses, I will be.
- 10:42Speaker 1: I still have a feeling they might.
- 10:44Speaker 2: I hope you're right. The yin and yang of this
- 10:46Speaker 2: podcast is your optimism, my pessimism, so... We will see.
- 10:50Speaker 1: Not because I believe that they are like deep down courageous.
- 10:53Speaker 2: No, no, no, no.
- 10:54Speaker 1: I feel like they would be saying their comments would
- 10:57Speaker 1: be different to reporters right now if they were going
- 11:01Speaker 1: to vote against it. Like they just, I don't know
- 11:04Speaker 1: why if you were at Romney and you were ultimately
- 11:05Speaker 1: going to vote against it, you say things like, I
- 11:07Speaker 1: want witnesses and I'll probably vote for witnesses. Like, I
- 11:10Speaker 1: don't know why you say that if you're going to
- 11:11Speaker 1: not do it.
- 11:12Speaker 2: And you could get like the ideal scenario that McConnell
- 11:15Speaker 2: is working towards is giving Susan Collins and Cory Gardner
- 11:19Speaker 2: a pass, but not having witnesses. He has margin of
- 11:22Speaker 2: error here.
- 11:23Speaker 1: So he leans on, like, Lamar Alexander at the end
- 11:26Speaker 1: to not do it.
- 11:28Speaker 2: Ultimately, the color of the jersey is the most important
- 11:32Speaker 2: thing here. And when McConnell goes to them and says, look,
- 11:36Speaker 2: we have two options. We can either have the president,
- 11:38Speaker 2: who's at the top of the ticket, while all of
- 11:40Speaker 2: your friends here are up for re-election, deliver the State
- 11:43Speaker 2: of the Union acquitted, or deliver the State of the
- 11:46Speaker 2: Union under the guise of impeachment, you pick. And we
- 11:54Speaker 2: sometimes think about Congress in these grand theories of constitutional
- 12:00Speaker 2: obligation or even complex political strategy. And it's often, is
- 12:04Speaker 2: the person you sit next to about lunch going to
- 12:05Speaker 2: be nice to you? There are friendships at play here
- 12:08Speaker 2: within parties that really impact things. And when people, particularly
- 12:12Speaker 2: people like Lamar Alexander, who obviously is no fan of
- 12:15Speaker 2: Trump and is basically leaving the Senate to avoid working
- 12:19Speaker 2: with Trump anymore. His choice is to take a personal
- 12:23Speaker 2: stand that could make life worse for Martha McSally or
- 12:26Speaker 2: anyone else or cause Chuck Schumer to be the majority leader.
- 12:30Speaker 2: My gut is he will do the opposite. I hope
- 12:32Speaker 2: I'm wrong. I think we should pressure the living shit
- 12:34Speaker 2: out of them because the only way to change it
- 12:36Speaker 2: is to change the political calculus for everyone involved.
- 12:40Speaker 1: The other observation I had over the last couple of
- 12:42Speaker 1: days is just, this is sort of a perfect example,
- 12:46Speaker 1: this trial of, how broken the media is. And I
- 12:49Speaker 1: don't necessarily mean like reporters not writing headlines we want
- 12:52Speaker 1: or like taking their spin or all this kind of stuff.
- 12:54Speaker 1: But like, I was very busy the last couple of
- 12:56Speaker 1: days and I did not have time to watch all
- 12:59Speaker 1: of this unfold, like watch hours and hours of speeches
- 13:02Speaker 1: on C-SPAN. And I remember thinking to myself like, well,
- 13:05Speaker 1: what am I really missing? Like we have heard this
- 13:08Speaker 1: case laid out in the house extremely well by Adam
- 13:11Speaker 1: Schiff and others. Um, And then prepping for the pod
- 13:15Speaker 1: and yesterday I started watching some of it and found
- 13:18Speaker 1: myself getting so outraged all over again at how right
- 13:23Speaker 1: the case is against Donald Trump. And I realized that like,
- 13:27Speaker 1: you know, if every American sat down and actually watched,
- 13:31Speaker 1: even if you just watched Adam Schiff's closing speech, you know,
- 13:36Speaker 1: and not the rest of it, we'd be in a,
- 13:40Speaker 1: I can't help but think we'd be in a bit
- 13:41Speaker 1: of a different place. But like, what's the I don't
- 13:44Speaker 1: even know what the media is supposed to do, because
- 13:45Speaker 1: it's like every news channel supposed to just like cover
- 13:49Speaker 1: what's going on on the floor live constantly and offer
- 13:52Speaker 1: no commentary and no stupid punditry and just like let
- 13:55Speaker 1: it go the whole time, because I don't even know
- 13:57Speaker 1: if that would capture Americans attention, you know, but I
- 13:59Speaker 1: just I guess what it said to me was it's
- 14:02Speaker 1: so difficult to capture anyone's attention in this country for
- 14:06Speaker 1: a sustained period of time anymore. And that redounds to
- 14:10Speaker 1: the benefit of Donald Trump and the Republican Party.
- 14:12Speaker 2: That's right. If you were to design in a laboratory
- 14:14Speaker 2: the absolute worst way to persuade people to take a
- 14:18Speaker 2: position on an incredibly complex issue, the worst way would
- 14:23Speaker 2: be nine hours of consecutive live television that takes place
- 14:26Speaker 2: during the workday. I think the broadcast networks deserve credit
- 14:33Speaker 2: for doing the right thing here.
- 14:35Speaker 1: A lot of credit.
- 14:36Speaker 2: For airing it. That costs them money. given what the
- 14:39Speaker 2: prospects of the outcome are, they have made what I
- 14:42Speaker 2: think is the right... We talk a lot about how
- 14:45Speaker 2: business drives journalism, but this is a decision that puts
- 14:48Speaker 2: journalism over bottom line. So they should get credit for that.
- 14:52Speaker 2: I think 90% of the press coverage of impeachment going
- 14:57Speaker 2: all the way back to when this broke six months ago,
- 15:00Speaker 2: eight months ago, whenever that was, has been great. I
- 15:03Speaker 2: think the you know, coverage of the impeachment hearings that
- 15:07Speaker 2: Schiff conducted and Nadler conducted were very, very good. There
- 15:10Speaker 2: are obviously examples that are terrible that then we have that, like,
- 15:15Speaker 2: I don't really know how to solve this problem, but
- 15:16Speaker 2: a bad thing happens. And then we like a bad story,
- 15:20Speaker 2: a focus on whether Josh Hawley is being sincere when
- 15:23Speaker 2: it comes to Jerry Nadler has hurt his feelings. And
- 15:26Speaker 2: then we all yell about it, which then gives the
- 15:28Speaker 2: algorithm to show it to more people.
- 15:29Speaker 1: This is partly why I'm trying to yell less about
- 15:31Speaker 1: this stuff.
- 15:32Speaker 3: Yes.
- 15:32Speaker 1: At least on Twitter. I yell about it here.
- 15:35Speaker 2: So, but, but you raised the biggest problem, which is
- 15:39Speaker 2: the way the system is currently working is advantaging Donald
- 15:44Speaker 2: Trump and disadvantaging Democrats. And this is something I spent
- 15:47Speaker 2: a lot of time on in my book. Um, it's
- 15:50Speaker 2: something I've been thinking about and wrestling with. It is
- 15:52Speaker 2: driving my new year's resolution to not get engaged as
- 15:56Speaker 2: often in specific media coverage, like complaints about specific stories
- 16:00Speaker 2: or specific reporters or headlines. And more about the systemic
- 16:04Speaker 2: problem with the media. But I think the big difference
- 16:07Speaker 2: is Republicans understand how to hack the mainstream media, how
- 16:12Speaker 2: to take advantage of its loopholes, its culture, its tendency
- 16:16Speaker 2: for balance over accuracy to get their story out. But
- 16:20Speaker 2: they don't rely on the mainstream media to get the
- 16:22Speaker 2: story out.
- 16:23Speaker 3: Right.
- 16:23Speaker 1: Because they have their own communication channels that they built
- 16:26Speaker 1: over the last couple of decades.
- 16:27Speaker 3: Right.
- 16:27Speaker 2: They have, obviously, Fox News, but these huge platform advantages
- 16:31Speaker 2: on Facebook with these conservative pages with large numbers of
- 16:34Speaker 2: followers that are showing their content to more people. But
- 16:36Speaker 2: they also had billionaires who were spending money to take
- 16:40Speaker 2: a clip like we just used about Schiff, to take
- 16:42Speaker 2: the reverse of that and show it to the voters
- 16:44Speaker 2: they care about.
- 16:45Speaker 3: Right.
- 16:46Speaker 2: And we are not doing that. And it's not because
- 16:48Speaker 2: there aren't smart people who think that that's what we're
- 16:52Speaker 2: supposed to do. It's that we are at a massive
- 16:55Speaker 2: resources advantage. We like, we are struggling collectively as a
- 16:58Speaker 2: progressive universe to find the dollars we need to wage
- 17:01Speaker 2: this presidential election alone, let alone, you know, so how
- 17:05Speaker 2: do you also do this?
- 17:08Speaker 1: I will say just going back to shift speech, which
- 17:10Speaker 1: reminded me that even with everything we just said being
- 17:14Speaker 1: true about the media, sometimes just a good speech is
- 17:19Speaker 1: still very powerful. You know, Chuck Schumer, um, went on
- 17:23Speaker 1: Rachel Maddow right after the trial ended yesterday and said,
- 17:27Speaker 1: for all the, like, Republicans getting out of their seats,
- 17:29Speaker 1: not paying attention, all this bullshit, for the last 45
- 17:32Speaker 1: minutes when Schiff spoke, every single person, every set of
- 17:36Speaker 1: eyes was glued on Schiff and it was very quiet
- 17:38Speaker 1: in the chamber and everyone was paying attention. And then, um,
- 17:42Speaker 1: Lindsey Graham apparently sees Schiff talking to reporters as he's
- 17:46Speaker 1: walking by and stops and said, um, that was, you know,
- 17:50Speaker 1: you did a really great job. You're really well spoken, which,
- 17:53Speaker 1: infuriates you, obviously, but is also, you know, it's pretty amazing.
- 17:58Speaker 1: And I do wonder for the people like Murkowski and
- 18:03Speaker 1: who this morning said to a reporter, it was very thorough,
- 18:06Speaker 1: the presentation so far, did not say she was upset
- 18:09Speaker 1: about anyone being mean or anything like that. You do
- 18:12Speaker 1: wonder that with a few senators, does that have an effect,
- 18:16Speaker 1: you know, in the end on whether they vote for
- 18:18Speaker 1: witnesses and documents? Maybe not. Maybe not because everyone forgets
- 18:21Speaker 1: everything that happened more than five minutes ago.
- 18:23Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you guys talked some on Monday and
- 18:27Speaker 2: we've been talking off mic for a while now about
- 18:30Speaker 2: McConnell's strategy here. And the reason why I think he
- 18:35Speaker 2: is proceeding the way he is and why it was
- 18:36Speaker 2: so important for him to move to get people to
- 18:39Speaker 2: agree to do the quote unquote real vote on witnesses
- 18:41Speaker 2: later is it's a pretty common crisis communication strategy. that
- 18:48Speaker 2: I refer to as horizon extension, which is in the
- 18:51Speaker 2: heat of the moment, immediately after Lev Parnas and everything
- 18:55Speaker 2: else and Bolton saying he's going to do it, there's tremendous,
- 18:57Speaker 2: there's this tremendous pressure to do it. But if you
- 19:00Speaker 2: can move the decision, the result, whatever it is to further.
- 19:05Speaker 1: Kicking the can down the road.
- 19:06Speaker 2: That's another way of putting it. Kick the can down
- 19:07Speaker 2: the road to further in the future when there is
- 19:09Speaker 2: less pressure and people can become more acclimated to the
- 19:12Speaker 2: idea of no witness if you have a better chance
- 19:14Speaker 2: to do it. It is, We do not have to
- 19:17Speaker 2: accept that reality as Democrats, as you guys talked about
- 19:19Speaker 2: on Monday. There is a real role for Democrats to
- 19:22Speaker 2: play here in the states with the core set of
- 19:25Speaker 2: Republican senators who happen to be both potential votes for
- 19:28Speaker 2: witnesses and very vulnerable to put pressure on them because
- 19:32Speaker 2: those senators are going to need, to get reelected, are
- 19:35Speaker 2: going to need the votes of some number of people
- 19:39Speaker 2: who believe that Donald Trump should be removed and that
- 19:41Speaker 2: there should be witnesses.
- 19:43Speaker 1: So, Let's just talk about how the Republicans are handling this.
- 19:46Speaker 1: You know, on Tuesday night, they were whining that Jerry
- 19:49Speaker 1: Nadler was being too mean because he accused them of
- 19:52Speaker 1: recover up, which they're doing. By Wednesday morning, they were
- 19:57Speaker 1: complaining that it was boring, that there was nothing new.
- 20:01Speaker 1: After they voted 10 times against new evidence and witnesses,
- 20:05Speaker 1: they were complaining that nothing new. And then, you know,
- 20:08Speaker 1: by the afternoon, some of them are just leaving the
- 20:10Speaker 1: the Senate floor. They were back in the chambers. They
- 20:12Speaker 1: were just hanging out, not listening. Just from a political standpoint,
- 20:17Speaker 1: don't you think the Republicans' behavior and resistance to witnesses
- 20:21Speaker 1: and new evidence is more politically damaging than at least
- 20:26Speaker 1: pretending to take this seriously, sit down, listen to all
- 20:31Speaker 1: the evidence and witnesses, and then vote to acquit him
- 20:34Speaker 1: later and still vote to acquit him?
- 20:36Speaker 3: Yes.
- 20:37Speaker 1: I actually think, you know, I know McConnell's always a
- 20:40Speaker 1: genius because he's always an evil genius, but I don't
- 20:43Speaker 1: know that it's that even politically smart for them to
- 20:45Speaker 1: act like this.
- 20:47Speaker 2: Well, I mean, part of this is driven by the
- 20:50Speaker 2: perverse incentive structures of being a Republican when Donald Trump
- 20:54Speaker 2: was president.
- 20:55Speaker 3: Right.
- 20:56Speaker 2: Which is the obvious best way.
- 20:58Speaker 1: Which means you bend the knee all the time.
- 20:59Speaker 3: Right.
- 21:00Speaker 2: And you have to, and if you don't, you will
- 21:01Speaker 2: be beheaded.
- 21:02Speaker 3: Right.
- 21:02Speaker 2: And it is, like, The Democrats went through a very
- 21:09Speaker 2: similar situation with the Bill Clinton impeachment trial. Very similar.
- 21:12Speaker 2: The outcome was never in doubt. But we were looking at,
- 21:21Speaker 2: for reasons that I can't really explain other than procrastination,
- 21:23Speaker 2: I dug deep into the 1999 CNN USA Today Gallup
- 21:27Speaker 2: poll about what voters thought about it. And it was
- 21:30Speaker 2: something like eight in 10 voters thought Bill Clinton had
- 21:33Speaker 2: committed perjury. A huge majority thought he had obstructed justice
- 21:38Speaker 2: by trying to influence the testimony of Monica Lewinsky and others.
- 21:42Speaker 2: And two-thirds of Americans thought he shouldn't be removed from office.
- 21:48Speaker 2: So very similar political context in that way. Difference, second term, obviously.
- 21:53Speaker 2: But there were differences in how Democrats in the Senate
- 21:55Speaker 2: handled it. One, as we said before, Tom Daschle, who
- 21:59Speaker 2: was a Senate Democratic leader at that time, refused to
- 22:01Speaker 2: speak to the White House about anything. There was no
- 22:03Speaker 2: coordination of strategy. Democrats also, to a person, said Bill
- 22:06Speaker 2: Clinton's conduct was reprehensible, but it didn't rise to the
- 22:11Speaker 2: level of removal.
- 22:12Speaker 1: Which, and didn't Bill Clinton basically say that himself?
- 22:15Speaker 2: Yes, he eventually, well, after much obstruction.
- 22:19Speaker 1: I can't remember this completely. This was like one of
- 22:21Speaker 1: my first political memories in high school.
- 22:24Speaker 2: Yeah, he had to give.
- 22:25Speaker 1: So I have a vague memory of everything that happened
- 22:27Speaker 1: to Clinton.
- 22:27Speaker 2: He eventually admitted it in a nationally televised address.
- 22:32Speaker 1: But was that after the impeachment?
- 22:35Speaker 2: It was prior to... I can't remember the exact timeline,
- 22:39Speaker 2: but it was before the trial.
- 22:40Speaker 3: Okay.
- 22:41Speaker 1: So it was before the trial.
- 22:43Speaker 2: I think it was after his... It was the day
- 22:44Speaker 2: he had to give his deposition. It was before impeachment.
- 22:46Speaker 2: It was the day he had to give his deposition
- 22:48Speaker 2: to Ken Starr and admit Well, yeah.
- 22:51Speaker 1: I mean, imagine what the place we'd be in if
- 22:53Speaker 1: Trump said, I did something wrong. I apologize. And all
- 22:56Speaker 1: the Republicans say he did something wrong, but it's not
- 22:58Speaker 1: worth impeaching him over. We wouldn't even, I mean.
- 23:00Speaker 2: Well, I guess that was sort of the point of
- 23:03Speaker 2: this long discursive trip into your high school years was
- 23:09Speaker 2: the most obviously in a normal world politically preferable position
- 23:13Speaker 2: for Republicans would be, I disagree with what he did.
- 23:15Speaker 2: I thought it was wrong. President shouldn't do that. But
- 23:18Speaker 2: it did not reach the level of removal, particularly 10
- 23:21Speaker 2: months before an election like that. That is even like,
- 23:25Speaker 2: I disagree with that position. I think it flies in
- 23:27Speaker 2: the face of what the founders intended, but it is
- 23:30Speaker 2: a position, right? Like head in the sand is not
- 23:34Speaker 2: a position.
- 23:35Speaker 1: No, it's not.
- 23:36Speaker 3: It's fine.
- 23:36Speaker 1: I mean, and you mentioned the polling back in the
- 23:39Speaker 1: Clinton years, you know, 69% of people want new witnesses,
- 23:44Speaker 1: including a plurality of Republicans. Pew came out with the
- 23:47Speaker 1: poll yesterday. Trump's approval is at 40% approved, 58% disapproved.
- 23:50Speaker 1: 70% say he acted unethically. 63% say he broke the law.
- 23:56Speaker 1: 51% say he should be removed from office. So it
- 23:59Speaker 1: is like you said, it's funny that you go from
- 24:00Speaker 1: 70 and 63 down to 51. But then, you know,
- 24:04Speaker 1: there's now been some polling out in some of the
- 24:08Speaker 1: states where Republican senators are up in 2020. Maine, for example,
- 24:13Speaker 1: a Democratic pollster found that 53% of Maine voters believe
- 24:16Speaker 1: that Trump is guilty of abusing his office. Independents believe
- 24:19Speaker 1: that by 57 percent think he's guilty of abusing his office.
- 24:22Speaker 1: Thirty six percent don't. And then 71 percent of Maine
- 24:25Speaker 1: voters say it's important for senators to insist on documents
- 24:29Speaker 1: and witnesses. You're Susan Collins and you see those numbers.
- 24:33Speaker 1: What are you thinking? You're thinking, fuck it, I just
- 24:36Speaker 1: am going to ride this out or no one's going
- 24:39Speaker 1: to care by the time November comes around.
- 24:41Speaker 2: Probably that. Probably no one's going to care about time
- 24:43Speaker 2: in November. This is going to be flushed down the
- 24:44Speaker 2: memory hole with everything else. And I think her bet
- 24:47Speaker 2: is it's more likely that independent and moderate Democrats forget
- 24:50Speaker 2: about her vote against witnesses than base Republican voters forget
- 24:55Speaker 2: her vote against Trump.
- 24:57Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 24:58Speaker 1: And I guess, you know, someone pointed this out, but
- 25:00Speaker 1: what a lot of these Republican senators are dealing with
- 25:02Speaker 1: right now is timing, which is this is before the
- 25:06Speaker 1: filing deadlines for primaries in a lot of these states.
- 25:10Speaker 1: So if they voted against Trump or voted to convict
- 25:14Speaker 1: him or voted for new witnesses' documents, they could all
- 25:16Speaker 1: get primary challengers last minute.
- 25:18Speaker 2: I'm sort of skeptical at this point.
- 25:19Speaker 1: Yeah, it's sort of like someone to mount a campaign
- 25:21Speaker 1: in like two or three months. It's kind of crazy.
- 25:23Speaker 1: But I guess they're still in that, they still have
- 25:26Speaker 1: those concerns. Although, you know, my thing is every one
- 25:29Speaker 1: of these, Susan Collins, if you look at her own
- 25:32Speaker 1: campaign messaging, it's Susan Collins has been an independent voice.
- 25:36Speaker 1: She's been bipartisan. She's different, all this kind of stuff.
- 25:39Speaker 1: at least from her perspective, her campaign believes that in
- 25:42Speaker 1: order to win this race, she needs to show some
- 25:45Speaker 1: distance from Donald Trump. I think if she does what
- 25:48Speaker 1: we think she's going to do, I think even if
- 25:51Speaker 1: she votes for witnesses and documents and then John Bolton
- 25:53Speaker 1: testifies that it was in fact a drug deal and
- 25:55Speaker 1: then she votes to acquit Donald Trump, people may forget
- 25:59Speaker 1: about it by November, but I'd be damn sure if
- 26:03Speaker 1: I was a Democrat to do everything I possibly can
- 26:06Speaker 1: to make sure they don't forget about it and it
- 26:07Speaker 1: becomes one piece of evidence in a larger case against Collins,
- 26:12Speaker 1: this vote, the Kavanaugh vote, the tax cuts, everything else
- 26:17Speaker 1: she's done to align herself with Donald Trump, I would
- 26:20Speaker 1: make sure everyone knew that was happening every single day
- 26:23Speaker 1: of the campaign between now and November, if I was
- 26:25Speaker 1: Sarah Gideon or whoever else ends up running against Collins.
- 26:29Speaker 2: The main example is interesting because it's going to be
- 26:32Speaker 2: very hard for Susan Collins to run away from Trump.
- 26:34Speaker 2: And maybe her team knows that too. There's a thing
- 26:37Speaker 2: you can say in your television ads, but ultimately, given
- 26:40Speaker 2: how narrow the electoral college margin is likely to be,
- 26:43Speaker 2: Trump cares a lot about the electoral vote in the
- 26:47Speaker 2: second district of Maine. People forget Maine splits its electoral votes.
- 26:51Speaker 2: Although we won that district in 2018, that's traditionally been
- 26:54Speaker 2: a Republican district, and he is a very Trumpy district demographically.
- 26:59Speaker 2: And so- he is going to be there campaigning and
- 27:02Speaker 2: on the ballot. Cory Gardner, Trump is not going to
- 27:04Speaker 2: campaign in Colorado. He is at least an opportunity to
- 27:07Speaker 2: have some distance, but Donald Trump's going to show up
- 27:09Speaker 2: in Maine, most likely. There will be Trump ads on
- 27:12Speaker 2: the air in Maine. There will be Trump digital ads
- 27:13Speaker 2: in the air. And so that is going to put
- 27:15Speaker 2: her in, I think, in an interesting position that makes
- 27:19Speaker 2: it where I think she may be casting her a
- 27:21Speaker 2: lot with Trump.
- 27:23Speaker 1: But I think like for some of these people, like,
- 27:25Speaker 1: you know, Martha McSally in Arizona, that state's, you know,
- 27:29Speaker 1: a state that She lost the election in 2018. She's
- 27:32Speaker 1: only in this seat because she was appointed. She lost
- 27:35Speaker 1: it to Kyrsten Sinema, partly because Kyrsten Sinema was able
- 27:37Speaker 1: to paint Martha McSally as someone who was too close
- 27:40Speaker 1: to Donald Trump. And she's out there saying that, you know,
- 27:43Speaker 1: a CNN reporter is a liberal hack and then posting
- 27:46Speaker 1: videos so she can raise a bunch of money. Like,
- 27:48Speaker 1: I'm sure it might raise money from her base right now,
- 27:51Speaker 1: but I don't know if Martha McSally is playing it
- 27:53Speaker 1: too smart either.
- 27:55Speaker 3: Like.
- 27:56Speaker 1: When I did the wilderness focus group in Phoenix, it
- 27:58Speaker 1: was with Romney Clinton voters. So these were more moderate people.
- 28:01Speaker 1: And the one thing they kept saying was not only
- 28:03Speaker 1: did they not like Trump, but they couldn't believe that
- 28:06Speaker 1: the party of John McCain, this is what they kept
- 28:08Speaker 1: saying that, you know, the John McCain people in Arizona,
- 28:10Speaker 1: they could not believe that Martha McSally and all these
- 28:12Speaker 1: other Republicans were just blindly following Donald Trump, whatever he
- 28:16Speaker 1: does there. They just wanted some Republican to show some
- 28:19Speaker 1: distance from Donald Trump.
- 28:20Speaker 2: I think the question, I think it's a very real question.
- 28:23Speaker 2: which is ticket splitting is at an all-time low and
- 28:26Speaker 2: getting lower. And so if you are Martha McSally, how
- 28:33Speaker 2: many of those Clinton Romney voters are going to vote
- 28:36Speaker 2: for you? How many people are going to vote? Biden, Bernie, Pete, Klobuchar, Warren,
- 28:42Speaker 2: whoever else, and McSally. Isn't your better bet to strengthen
- 28:47Speaker 2: Trump as much as you possibly can and make sure
- 28:48Speaker 2: he gets as many votes as he possibly can so
- 28:50Speaker 2: that you can ride on those coattails? That is probably
- 28:53Speaker 2: the best political strategy. And it could be political suicide
- 28:59Speaker 2: for someone like Cory Gardner or Susan Collins. But that
- 29:04Speaker 2: may be the best political strategy in an incredibly polarized
- 29:08Speaker 2: political environment, which is going to have record turnout like
- 29:12Speaker 2: we have never seen ever. I think it might have
- 29:16Speaker 2: been that same Pew poll, but there is 71% enthusiasm
- 29:20Speaker 2: to vote in this election in January. That is almost
- 29:24Speaker 2: twice what it has been in January of previous elections.
- 29:36Speaker 1: So let's talk about how Trump is handling all of this.
- 29:38Speaker 1: The president is in Davos. which is where you go
- 29:41Speaker 1: when you're standing trial for extortion and cheating. And on Wednesday,
- 29:45Speaker 1: he did himself and his defense team a real solid
- 29:47Speaker 1: when he said, quote, I thought our team did a
- 29:49Speaker 1: very good job, but honestly, we have all the material.
- 29:53Speaker 1: They don't have the material. Yeah, that's the whole fucking problem, dude.
- 29:57Speaker 1: That's what you're standing trial for. Do you think he
- 30:00Speaker 1: realized he basically confessed to withholding evidence and obstructing justice there, or...
- 30:06Speaker 1: Was he just bragging about it? Did he not mean
- 30:08Speaker 1: that document?
- 30:11Speaker 2: I truly believe that Trump does not believe that laws
- 30:14Speaker 2: apply to him.
- 30:15Speaker 3: Well, yeah. Right?
- 30:16Speaker 2: I mean, that has been his attitude his entire life.
- 30:17Speaker 2: And so it's like, this is just a contest. And
- 30:20Speaker 2: I have the advantage. I'm doing what it takes to win.
- 30:22Speaker 2: And here's why I'm winning. And without any concept of
- 30:26Speaker 2: that you were admitting to lawbreaking because winning is an
- 30:28Speaker 2: end in and of itself.
- 30:29Speaker 1: I just couldn't believe that that's not all we're talking
- 30:32Speaker 1: about today. It's like... We've had these moments where Trump
- 30:36Speaker 1: confesses something or Mick Mulvaney goes to a White House
- 30:40Speaker 1: press conference and he confesses something. They just don't give
- 30:43Speaker 1: a shit.
- 30:43Speaker 2: I mean, this is something we've talked about a lot
- 30:46Speaker 2: in the Trump era, which is the sort of institutional
- 30:51Speaker 2: biases of the media prize things revealed in secret more
- 30:56Speaker 2: than things in public.
- 30:57Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 30:58Speaker 2: And so the.
- 31:01Speaker 2: The reason the whistleblower blew up was because it was
- 31:04Speaker 2: this secret person who had revealed this secret thing that
- 31:07Speaker 2: was being provided anonymously to people. And so there was
- 31:10Speaker 2: this Watergate-esque deep throat mystery to it. And when Trump
- 31:15Speaker 2: admits the same thing publicly, like we've said this before,
- 31:18Speaker 2: if you took Trump's tweets and turn them about pressuring Mueller,
- 31:22Speaker 2: firing Mueller, getting rid of Sessions, if you.
- 31:24Speaker 1: Turn those from tweets- To secret documents?
- 31:27Speaker 2: Yeah, to secret documents- If you email them to John
- 31:31Speaker 2: Podesta and then put them up on WikiLeaks, they'd be
- 31:34Speaker 2: front page stories. But because Trump does it in public,
- 31:37Speaker 2: we don't have a, we've never dealt with someone so
- 31:41Speaker 2: brazen and so stupid to admit all their crimes in public.
- 31:43Speaker 2: So we don't know how to handle that as a
- 31:46Speaker 2: political culture writ large.
- 31:49Speaker 1: So while he was in Davos bragging to CEOs about
- 31:52Speaker 1: how he's made them richer, Trump sat down for an
- 31:55Speaker 1: interview with CNBC and And when he was asked if
- 31:59Speaker 1: entitlements like Social Security and Medicare would ever be considered
- 32:01Speaker 1: for cuts, Trump responded, quote, at some point they will be.
- 32:05Speaker 1: It'll be toward the end of the year. The growth
- 32:07Speaker 1: is going to be incredible. At the right time, we
- 32:09Speaker 1: will take a look at that. It's crazy to think
- 32:13Speaker 1: that the most politically damaging thing Trump said yesterday might
- 32:16Speaker 1: not have been when he confessed to obstruction of justice,
- 32:19Speaker 1: but that when he said he was willing to cut
- 32:22Speaker 1: Social Security and Medicare if he wins a second term, right?
- 32:25Speaker 1: I mean, isn't that.
- 32:27Speaker 2: To the extent that Trump has a subconscious, it is
- 32:30Speaker 2: possible that it does not want to be president because
- 32:33Speaker 2: he keeps doing things that are essentially ritual political suicide
- 32:38Speaker 2: for someone who runs on a populist, a bullshit populist,
- 32:41Speaker 2: but a populist platform or a populist message, I guess.
- 32:43Speaker 2: I mean, it's insane. It is an insane thing to say.
- 32:47Speaker 2: It is 1,000 times more insane to say in Davos,
- 32:51Speaker 2: a gathering of the wealthiest people in the entire world
- 32:55Speaker 2: i mean.
- 32:56Speaker 1: After he he right before that he was talking to
- 32:59Speaker 1: the bank of america ceo and was like aren't you
- 33:02Speaker 1: happy with your uh with your the stock market right
- 33:05Speaker 1: now i should have bought some shares but i wasn't
- 33:08Speaker 1: able to like bragging about how he's made them richer
- 33:12Speaker 1: with his with the fucking tax cuts and the stock
- 33:13Speaker 1: buybacks in davos in davos imagine if barack obama.
- 33:19Speaker 2: I mean, a reporter texted me two days ago and said, hey,
- 33:24Speaker 2: my editor's asking, why did Obama never go to Davos?
- 33:30Speaker 2: I mean, to the reporter's point, they, like, knew, like,
- 33:33Speaker 2: it was sort of a rhetorical question, right? But it, yeah,
- 33:37Speaker 2: I mean, like, never. Could you imagine? Like, I know
- 33:41Speaker 2: we can't.
- 33:42Speaker 1: I guess it's like Nixon in China, right? Like, only
- 33:44Speaker 1: working class hero Donald Trump can truly go to Davos.
- 33:46Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that is.
- 33:49Speaker 2: Actually true it's actually and then we're just like this
- 33:52Speaker 2: is amazing rich people who got massive tax cuts and
- 33:56Speaker 2: freedom to pollute are happy with donald trump he's winning
- 34:00Speaker 2: them over big win for donald trump's like you fucking
- 34:03Speaker 2: morons have learned nothing since.
- 34:05Speaker 1: 2016 but look i i was screaming about this yesterday
- 34:09Speaker 1: on the social security and medicare thing and you know
- 34:11Speaker 1: it was really good to see priorities usa which is
- 34:13Speaker 1: the largest super PAC on the democratic side right now
- 34:16Speaker 1: say that, you know, they put out a whole memo
- 34:18Speaker 1: about this, of how damaging Trump's position on Social Security
- 34:22Speaker 1: and Medicare is, not only with Democratic voters, but with
- 34:26Speaker 1: Obama-Trump voters, with other swing voters, independents, you name it.
- 34:30Speaker 1: Except for Trump fans, Trump's base, it is extremely unpopular,
- 34:34Speaker 1: maybe the most unpopular position he can take. And yet,
- 34:37Speaker 1: and all the Democratic candidates made a statement on it,
- 34:40Speaker 1: which was great also. But It's not something that when
- 34:43Speaker 1: it happens, we talk about a lot. It's not one
- 34:45Speaker 1: of those things that gets picked up on Twitter. Like
- 34:47Speaker 1: you don't get a lot of retweets for talking about
- 34:49Speaker 1: fucking social security.
- 34:51Speaker 2: And that is what guys are.
- 34:52Speaker 1: But like none of these things ever go viral.
- 34:54Speaker 3: Right.
- 34:54Speaker 1: And I just I wonder, like, I don't know how
- 34:58Speaker 1: many times we can say how important it is to
- 35:00Speaker 1: talk about the fact that Donald Trump is going to
- 35:02Speaker 1: take away people's health care, cut social security and cut
- 35:04Speaker 1: Medicare and Medicaid in this election and how politically damaging
- 35:08Speaker 1: that is. for all that we scream about everything else
- 35:11Speaker 1: that he does, as we should.
- 35:12Speaker 2: I mean, this is the challenge of being a Democrat,
- 35:14Speaker 2: is the things that matter the most to the voters
- 35:17Speaker 2: that we need to persuade are things that do not
- 35:20Speaker 2: benefit from the algorithmic choices of social media platforms. So
- 35:25Speaker 2: the only solution is to put money behind it.
- 35:29Speaker 3: Right.
- 35:30Speaker 1: Which, by the way, we should say, the Democratic Party
- 35:33Speaker 1: and Democratic candidates did very successfully in 2018. We talked
- 35:38Speaker 1: about the caravan at the end. We talked about Brett Kavanaugh, right?
- 35:42Speaker 1: Like that was the national media was basically consumed with
- 35:46Speaker 1: both immigration and the Kavanaugh fight. But meanwhile, on the ground,
- 35:50Speaker 1: every Democratic candidate was putting money behind healthcare ads and
- 35:53Speaker 1: it worked.
- 35:53Speaker 2: My suspicion is we will see money behind this, both
- 35:57Speaker 2: in the short term and in the long term when
- 35:59Speaker 2: we have a nominee. And I suspect a huge part
- 36:02Speaker 2: of the message will be that Trump wants to cut
- 36:07Speaker 2: your Social Security, cut your Medicare, cut Medicaid, raise your
- 36:10Speaker 2: health care premiums to pay for more tax cuts for
- 36:12Speaker 2: rich people like him. I suspect that that is going
- 36:14Speaker 2: to be the thrust of the argument around him. I
- 36:16Speaker 2: am struck, as we talk about these things, by something
- 36:19Speaker 2: Josh Warren, who works for Priority, said, which is, if
- 36:23Speaker 2: you have an idea for a digital ad, can you
- 36:27Speaker 2: also have an idea for where that money comes from
- 36:29Speaker 2: for digital ads? So I do think about it sometimes
- 36:30Speaker 2: where it's like, in all these places, there are very
- 36:33Speaker 2: smart people doing these things. And this is not like
- 36:36Speaker 2: when we yell about why aren't there ads about this?
- 36:39Speaker 2: It's not really, I don't know what it may sound like,
- 36:41Speaker 2: but it's not us yelling at democratic groups that exist
- 36:45Speaker 2: that are working on this. It's sort of us yelling
- 36:48Speaker 2: at super rich people. Yeah, it's yelling at super.
- 36:50Speaker 1: But also, look at Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren's campaign.
- 36:53Speaker 1: We're in the golden era of grassroots fundraising. Like, you know,
- 36:57Speaker 1: if Priorities USA or anyone else said, hey, there's a
- 37:01Speaker 1: good idea for a digital ad, could we crowdfund this?
- 37:03Speaker 1: Let's raise X amount of money in 24 hours. you
- 37:07Speaker 1: know damn well they would raise that money.
- 37:10Speaker 4: Maybe.
- 37:11Speaker 3: You know?
- 37:11Speaker 1: I mean, it depends on how many times you do that.
- 37:14Speaker 2: I mean, this is a longer conversation. I have a
- 37:17Speaker 2: lot of thoughts about maybe some things we could do
- 37:19Speaker 2: here to be helpful. But I think that the press
- 37:24Speaker 2: is not going to carry this message for us. Twitter
- 37:26Speaker 2: is not going to carry this message for us. Facebook
- 37:27Speaker 2: is not going to carry this message for us. Democratic candidates,
- 37:30Speaker 2: political organizations, party organizations are going to have to do it.
- 37:33Speaker 2: And actually, I have confidence that they will.
- 37:36Speaker 1: And I should say, you know, it was very good
- 37:37Speaker 1: news back on the impeachment front. It was good news
- 37:39Speaker 1: to see Mike Bloomberg change all of his ads over
- 37:43Speaker 1: to impeachment ads in the time being.
- 37:45Speaker 2: Were they all of them?
- 37:46Speaker 3: I don't know.
- 37:47Speaker 1: Maybe I didn't read closely. I thought it was all
- 37:49Speaker 1: of them.
- 37:49Speaker 2: I really want to... I want to get to the
- 37:51Speaker 2: bottom of this, right? Every time I read this story
- 37:55Speaker 2: that says, you know, whenever there is a gap in advertising,
- 38:00Speaker 2: the Bloomberg team tells reporters that they're going to do
- 38:03Speaker 2: their ads to it.
- 38:04Speaker 3: And.
- 38:05Speaker 2: I've been watching a lot of football recently and a
- 38:07Speaker 2: lot of basketball. And I see a lot of Bloomberg ads.
- 38:10Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 38:11Speaker 2: And they're all pro-Bloomberg, which is 100% his right, his money,
- 38:14Speaker 2: his campaign. I have yet to see a negative Trump
- 38:17Speaker 2: ad on television. And that may be happening in swing states.
- 38:21Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 38:21Speaker 1: Usually his ads have like 10 seconds about why Trump
- 38:23Speaker 1: is bad and then it pivots to Bloomberg.
- 38:25Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 38:25Speaker 2: It's like Trump is a person and I'm a better person.
- 38:28Speaker 2: But it's not an anti-Trump spot.
- 38:30Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 38:30Speaker 2: And I will periodically go into the Facebook ad library
- 38:33Speaker 2: and And try to find the, as one does, as
- 38:36Speaker 2: one does, uh, to try to find the negative ads.
- 38:40Speaker 2: And there are some, so I would love just like
- 38:42Speaker 2: some be awesome for the next time. There's a story
- 38:44Speaker 2: about this to say.
- 38:46Speaker 1: What states, what ads, how.
- 38:48Speaker 2: Much here's the ad, like even putting the ad out
- 38:50Speaker 2: would help it be seen because people would share it socially.
- 38:52Speaker 2: So like, I'd like to know what that means. And
- 38:55Speaker 2: Bloomberg has an opportunity, a $ 10 million opportunity in two
- 38:58Speaker 2: weeks to use a very large platform.
- 39:00Speaker 1: To carry a message. That's right. Well, we should tell everyone,
- 39:03Speaker 1: if you don't have a couple billion dollars laying around
- 39:06Speaker 1: to run ads on impeachment, you can put the maximum
- 39:10Speaker 1: pressure possible on, you know, Susan Collins and Cory Gardner
- 39:15Speaker 1: and Tom Tillis and Martha McSally, Mitt Romney and Lamar Alexander,
- 39:19Speaker 1: if you want as well. Like, I do think we
- 39:21Speaker 1: already saw Mitch McConnell be forced to sort of shift
- 39:25Speaker 1: the rules of the trial a little bit in Democrats' favor,
- 39:27Speaker 1: not much, but a little. And, you know, the votes
- 39:30Speaker 1: on new documents and witnesses is still very much up
- 39:34Speaker 1: in the air. And you can make a difference by
- 39:36Speaker 1: calling Congress and really putting the pressure on. Hopefully, as
- 39:39Speaker 1: we get closer to the vote, there's also some rallies and,
- 39:42Speaker 1: you know, people protesting as well, because I think that
- 39:44Speaker 1: could have an effect. All right. Let's talk about how
- 39:47Speaker 1: impeachment is affecting the Democratic primary. with less than two
- 39:51Speaker 1: weeks until Iowa. Senators Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Amy
- 39:55Speaker 1: Klobuchar are all stuck at the trial, leaving the state
- 39:58Speaker 1: to Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg. Meanwhile, primary polling hasn't
- 40:02Speaker 1: given us much more clarity since we talked about it
- 40:04Speaker 1: on Tuesday's episode.
- 40:05Speaker 2: Less clarity.
- 40:06Speaker 1: Less clarity, if that was even possible. There were four
- 40:09Speaker 1: national polls released on Wednesday. Three show Biden in the lead,
- 40:13Speaker 1: but CNN showed Bernie in the lead for the first
- 40:15Speaker 1: time with a gain of seven points since their December poll.
- 40:19Speaker 1: There have also been a couple of good, really good,
- 40:22Speaker 1: in the case of the WBUR poll today, New Hampshire
- 40:25Speaker 1: polls for Bernie, but no new Iowa polling. Though, just
- 40:30Speaker 1: as I was about to come record, I think you
- 40:31Speaker 1: were talking to Desmond Meade, Dan, Saturday, February 1st, the
- 40:36Speaker 1: last Des Moines Register poll.
- 40:38Speaker 2: Two days before the caucus.
- 40:39Speaker 1: Not only just a poll released on the Des Moines
- 40:42Speaker 1: Register site on Saturday, Dan, it's going to be a
- 40:45Speaker 1: live television special on CNN.
- 40:48Speaker 4: Cool.
- 40:49Speaker 1: So we'll, we're going to be in Des Moines.
- 40:52Speaker 2: We are going to be in Des We're going.
- 40:53Speaker 4: Yes.
- 40:53Speaker 1: Why is it America's going?
- 40:54Speaker 2: And, um, will there be some local watch parties at
- 40:56Speaker 2: the CNN show?
- 40:57Speaker 1: I mean, I just hope we can, uh, that's, that's
- 41:00Speaker 1: going to be fun watching that and making fun of
- 41:02Speaker 1: it too. If it's, if it's anything like, um, remember
- 41:04Speaker 1: the CNN live show with, where they drew the, uh, Debate?
- 41:08Speaker 2: Yeah, but if you will remember, we.
- 41:10Speaker 1: We were about to do a show, I think.
- 41:11Speaker 2: We were about to do a show. We were very
- 41:13Speaker 2: dismissive of it. And then, towards the end, we were
- 41:16Speaker 2: 100% bought in for the final drawing.
- 41:18Speaker 1: And then we talked about it for like 15 minutes
- 41:19Speaker 1: on our live show.
- 41:21Speaker 2: Yeah, so in the end, they were right and we
- 41:23Speaker 2: were wrong, which is a hard thing to admit. And
- 41:24Speaker 2: that may happen again.
- 41:25Speaker 1: Yeah. So where do you think the race stands at
- 41:28Speaker 1: this point? And what do you think about all the
- 41:31Speaker 1: polling discrepancies?
- 41:32Speaker 2: This seems like an obvious thing to say, but I
- 41:33Speaker 2: have no idea. And no one does either. It seems
- 41:35Speaker 2: like it is a... that there are four candidates with
- 41:38Speaker 2: very realistic shots of winning Iowa. And I would sort
- 41:42Speaker 2: of discount to a certain degree the New Hampshire polling,
- 41:47Speaker 2: at least among the top four.
- 41:49Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 41:49Speaker 2: Which is what's going to happen in Iowa, I think
- 41:52Speaker 2: is going to have some pretty dramatic effects. It's going
- 41:54Speaker 2: to cause some resorting. You may have candidates who don't
- 41:57Speaker 2: get a delegate in Iowa drop out or lose support
- 41:59Speaker 2: in New Hampshire. But it seems like this has come
- 42:02Speaker 2: down to a very close race between four candidates. Biden, Bernie, Buttigieg, Warren,
- 42:08Speaker 2: with Klobuchar still in the game with two weeks to
- 42:10Speaker 2: go here.
- 42:11Speaker 1: And Bloomberg just lurking out there for Super Tuesday.
- 42:15Speaker 3: Yes. Lurking.
- 42:16Speaker 2: Just spending that money. And clearly Biden and Bernie have
- 42:24Speaker 2: an advantage over the others.
- 42:25Speaker 1: For sure.
- 42:26Speaker 2: For sure.
- 42:26Speaker 1: I mean, just all the data points to that, even
- 42:29Speaker 1: though it's very unclear.
- 42:30Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 42:30Speaker 2: And so I think that That is where the race is.
- 42:33Speaker 2: Things can move dramatically. I mean, in a sort of
- 42:36Speaker 2: scary way, that Des Moines Register poll, it has a
- 42:41Speaker 2: self-fulfilling prophecy to it, which is it can have an
- 42:44Speaker 2: effect on sort of moving undecided voters or supporters of
- 42:48Speaker 2: candidates who are not near the 15% viability threshold to
- 42:54Speaker 2: head to the winner. And Obama actually benefited from that
- 42:56Speaker 2: because two or three days before the Iowa caucus 2008,
- 43:00Speaker 2: the one register poll came out with Obama up by seven.
- 43:04Speaker 2: And that was very influential. It creates a momentum narrative,
- 43:07Speaker 2: which is very important at the end of a caucus.
- 43:09Speaker 1: Well, speaking of momentum narratives, I do think that belongs
- 43:13Speaker 1: to the Sanders campaign right now. Um, whether it's warranted
- 43:17Speaker 1: or not in the data, um, which if you, you know,
- 43:19Speaker 1: there's plenty of ways to look at the data and
- 43:21Speaker 1: plenty of the polls to look at to, to see
- 43:23Speaker 1: that it is warranted that he does have the momentum
- 43:25Speaker 1: right now. Um, You pointed out yesterday an interesting Nate
- 43:28Speaker 1: Cohn piece in the New York Times about why Bernie
- 43:30Speaker 1: has been gaining ground and has fewer obstacles between here
- 43:34Speaker 1: and the nomination than he did in 2016. Basically, no
- 43:38Speaker 1: one attacked him. The media didn't take him too seriously, again.
- 43:43Speaker 1: And he raised an insane amount of money. You agree
- 43:47Speaker 1: with all that, or is there anything else you want to.
- 43:49Speaker 2: Add to that? I 100% agree with that. And it's
- 43:51Speaker 2: very curious... that we have no idea when any of
- 43:55Speaker 2: these campaigns have cash on hand right now.
- 43:57Speaker 3: Oh, yeah.
- 43:58Speaker 1: That's interesting.
- 43:59Speaker 2: Yeah, like everyone had good second quarters. Bernie obviously had
- 44:02Speaker 2: an incredible second quarter. Biden had a much better second
- 44:04Speaker 2: quarter than before. But Biden had $ 9 million cash on
- 44:07Speaker 2: hand at the end of the previous reporting period. And
- 44:10Speaker 2: Bernie had like $ 30 million. And that's a huge factor
- 44:14Speaker 2: as we move forward. And to understand Biden's long-term viability post-Iowa,
- 44:20Speaker 2: like if he can get to the states that are
- 44:22Speaker 2: demographically better for him based on the current set of polling,
- 44:25Speaker 2: does he have the money to get there? And we
- 44:28Speaker 2: do not know the answer to that. And I think
- 44:30Speaker 2: it's a big one because Hillary Clinton in 2008 had
- 44:33Speaker 2: a very similar trajectory to Biden financially in the sense
- 44:36Speaker 2: that she raised good money, less money than Obama, but
- 44:40Speaker 2: she spent money at a very high rate and was
- 44:41Speaker 2: basically bankrupt after Iowa and New Hampshire and had very
- 44:44Speaker 2: little in the tank to run real campaigns once you
- 44:46Speaker 2: got to Super Tuesday and the caucus states that came
- 44:48Speaker 2: after that.
- 44:49Speaker 1: Which is basically why we won.
- 44:50Speaker 3: That's correct.
- 44:51Speaker 1: You know, we've talked a lot about some of the
- 44:53Speaker 1: other candidates and, you know, we've talked about Bernie in
- 44:56Speaker 1: the primary. What do you think about Bernie Sanders as
- 44:59Speaker 1: a general election candidate, since it is probably more likely
- 45:04Speaker 1: now than it has been?
- 45:05Speaker 2: I mean, this is like this is a hard question
- 45:09Speaker 2: and I would have that same sort of pause slash
- 45:13Speaker 2: sigh for any of them, for any of the people
- 45:15Speaker 2: we've talked about, because.
- 45:16Speaker 1: It's just funny because so much of the Biden case
- 45:19Speaker 1: from the beginning has been well, Biden would be the
- 45:21Speaker 1: strongest general election candidate. And a lot of people disagree
- 45:26Speaker 1: with that, mostly all the other campaigns, but that's sort
- 45:29Speaker 1: of been the narrative around Biden.
- 45:31Speaker 2: And there's been polling evidence.
- 45:33Speaker 1: And there's been polling evidence. Yeah. But I think even
- 45:36Speaker 1: if you look at the polls, the general election polls,
- 45:38Speaker 1: it's interesting that Biden still has an advantage in the
- 45:43Speaker 1: general election against Trump vis-a-vis all the other candidates. But
- 45:47Speaker 1: right behind him is Bernie Sanders.
- 45:49Speaker 2: If you're going to use polling to make the case
- 45:51Speaker 2: that Biden.
- 45:52Speaker 1: Which changes all the time and all the caveats. All
- 45:55Speaker 1: the caveats.
- 45:56Speaker 2: All the caveats. But if you're using polling, as the
- 45:58Speaker 2: Biden campaign does, and I think fairly, they say like
- 46:01Speaker 2: 70 consecutive polls have shown Biden beating Trump. By that metric,
- 46:06Speaker 2: Bernie Sanders is the second most electable candidate. There is
- 46:10Speaker 2: a separation in many of these polls between Biden and Bernie,
- 46:13Speaker 2: and then between Bernie and whoever is next, usually Elizabeth Warren.
- 46:18Speaker 2: I think I was listening to your conversation on Monday
- 46:21Speaker 2: about the social security fight between these folks and the
- 46:24Speaker 2: importance of having conversations around the general election vulnerabilities of
- 46:30Speaker 2: the candidates. We should hash these things out now. And
- 46:34Speaker 2: there were two things that I took away from that,
- 46:36Speaker 2: that if I had been at the table, I would
- 46:37Speaker 2: have interjected with and perhaps- Well, now you get your chance.
- 46:40Speaker 1: That's the chance. And it's like, I'm just- Love it
- 46:41Speaker 1: might walk in, so hurry up.
- 46:42Speaker 2: That's right. Is one- All the stuff around impeachment that
- 46:49Speaker 2: was sort of discussed about baggage for Biden, based on
- 46:52Speaker 2: the metric we just mentioned, there's no evidence that it
- 46:54Speaker 2: is actually baggage for Biden. He has not suffered at
- 46:58Speaker 2: all in these general election matchups.
- 47:00Speaker 3: Right.
- 47:01Speaker 2: With basically a massive conservative nationally televised campaign by the
- 47:05Speaker 2: Republicans to paint Biden as corrupt.
- 47:07Speaker 1: And an extremely high awareness among voters of that campaign. Yeah,
- 47:11Speaker 1: it is a- So it's not like it's not, people
- 47:13Speaker 1: aren't paying attention.
- 47:14Speaker 2: We have hashed it out, and I think- It could
- 47:16Speaker 2: change when there's billions of dollars spent on it. But
- 47:18Speaker 2: as of right now, there is no evidence that the
- 47:21Speaker 2: smear campaign against Biden and his son Hunter has made
- 47:24Speaker 2: him less electable, whatever that means. I think it is
- 47:27Speaker 2: also true that we have not, there has never been
- 47:31Speaker 2: that conversation around Bernie, right? And Bernie does, like all
- 47:34Speaker 2: these candidates, has vulnerabilities. And he has tried to address
- 47:38Speaker 2: some of those around socialism, which is a, that is
- 47:41Speaker 2: a real vulnerability. That is not- And perhaps the biggest
- 47:46Speaker 2: of any of the candidates running. Now, a vulnerability can be.
- 47:50Speaker 1: And again, we should say why. I don't necessarily think
- 47:54Speaker 1: it's because his positions themselves are too far to the left.
- 47:57Speaker 1: I've been thinking the last couple weeks that if Bernie
- 47:59Speaker 1: Sanders had just called himself an independent, maintained the exact
- 48:03Speaker 1: same positions he's had his entire life, he would be
- 48:05Speaker 1: more like Sherrod Brown running as a general election candidate.
- 48:10Speaker 1: Just like a sort of gruff folder guy who's you know,
- 48:14Speaker 1: economic populism right from the get-go. And I said this
- 48:18Speaker 1: back when, you know, Bernie Sanders gave what I thought
- 48:20Speaker 1: was a very good speech defending democratic socialism, minus the
- 48:25Speaker 1: fact that he calls himself a democratic socialism because he
- 48:28Speaker 1: placed himself squarely in their tradition of the democratic party,
- 48:32Speaker 1: FDR and all the rest. And he sounded like a democrat, minus, again,
- 48:36Speaker 1: calling himself a democratic socialist, which, you know, has resonance
- 48:40Speaker 1: with a lot of people in this country, at least
- 48:42Speaker 1: the word socialism. because of what older people know socialism
- 48:47Speaker 1: to be in the past. That's it. And it's hard
- 48:51Speaker 1: to get around that. It's just a fact.
- 48:52Speaker 2: Now, it doesn't mean.
- 48:53Speaker 1: He may be able to, but.
- 48:54Speaker 4: Right.
- 48:54Speaker 2: And I think that is the important thing, is we
- 48:57Speaker 2: treat electability vulnerabilities as these things set in stone.
- 49:01Speaker 1: Yes. And they are not.
- 49:02Speaker 2: And if you had said back in 2007 that the
- 49:06Speaker 2: best candidate to run against John McCain, war hero, most
- 49:10Speaker 2: popular politician in the country... Would be a black.
- 49:15Speaker 1: Guy named Barack Hussein Obama.
- 49:17Speaker 2: From the south side of Chicago, a few years removed
- 49:19Speaker 2: from the Illinois State Senate, people thought you were fucking insane.
- 49:22Speaker 3: Insane.
- 49:22Speaker 2: And so candidate ability, campaign quality, and most importantly, larger
- 49:29Speaker 2: factors of what's happening in the economy and the world
- 49:31Speaker 2: will drive the outcome here. So I think Bernie Sanders
- 49:33Speaker 2: can navigate, just like I think Elizabeth Warren can navigate
- 49:35Speaker 2: the challenges people raise about her. Biden has challenges.
- 49:38Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 49:38Speaker 2: Klobuchar has challenges. Everyone except Andrew Yang has challenges.
- 49:43Speaker 1: No, I mean, you know, I agree. And that's why
- 49:45Speaker 1: people say, you know, who do you think is going
- 49:46Speaker 1: to be strongest in general? All I can do is
- 49:49Speaker 1: talk about the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate. And
- 49:52Speaker 1: I think we should be all, all of us should
- 49:54Speaker 1: be clear eyed that whoever wins this thing, I do
- 49:58Speaker 1: not think we should be sitting there saying like, oh,
- 50:00Speaker 1: if only we had nominated this other one, you know,
- 50:02Speaker 1: like they, every single one of them, at least the
- 50:04Speaker 1: major ones that we're talking about has a Serious weaknesses
- 50:07Speaker 1: in the general election and all of them carry serious strengths.
- 50:11Speaker 1: Some of those strengths unique to that candidate that the
- 50:13Speaker 1: other candidates don't have. I really believe that about all
- 50:16Speaker 1: of them.
- 50:16Speaker 3: Right.
- 50:16Speaker 2: And the best test of electability is winning elections.
- 50:20Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 50:20Speaker 2: And now our primary process is not perfect. By any
- 50:23Speaker 2: stretch of the imagination, the real questions about the demographic
- 50:27Speaker 2: makeup of the states of the front end, all of
- 50:29Speaker 2: that is true. But that is the process before us.
- 50:32Speaker 2: And my bet would be the candidate who can best
- 50:35Speaker 2: navigate that process to the end is probably our best
- 50:38Speaker 2: bet against Trump.
- 50:39Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good point. So let's talk about two
- 50:41Speaker 1: of Bernie's rivals. How much of an advantage is it
- 50:44Speaker 1: for Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg to have Iowa to
- 50:47Speaker 1: themselves in this last week and a half?
- 50:49Speaker 2: I think it's a huge advantage. If you will remember
- 50:55Speaker 2: at the end of Iowa, like Iowa, the numbers of
- 50:58Speaker 2: people involved are so small. And you're basically trying to move,
- 51:01Speaker 2: in some cases, a few dozen people in a precinct
- 51:04Speaker 2: to get 15% or to get one of your opponents
- 51:07Speaker 2: under 15%. So at the end of every event down
- 51:10Speaker 2: the stretch, President Obama, Mrs. Obama, would do events with
- 51:14Speaker 2: undecided caucus members. They would meet with them, like 10 people,
- 51:18Speaker 2: 12 people, and would persuade them to sign cards right
- 51:23Speaker 2: then and there to be what we would call a one, right?
- 51:25Speaker 2: Someone who was a committed supporter of President Obama. And-
- 51:30Speaker 2: That makes a difference. And that is something that is
- 51:31Speaker 2: available to Biden and Buttigieg that is not going to
- 51:33Speaker 2: be available at the same volume to the others.
- 51:36Speaker 1: Do you think, well, there's two things that they can
- 51:40Speaker 1: do to sort of help their cause, Bernie and Warren
- 51:43Speaker 1: and Klobuchar. One is surrogates and the other is doing
- 51:48Speaker 1: a lot of television and press interviews from D.C. that
- 51:52Speaker 1: get beamed back into Iowa.
- 51:54Speaker 2: That is the best thing they can do.
- 51:57Speaker 1: Do you think it's not the same? Not the same.
- 51:59Speaker 2: Because the candidates in Iowa can do both, right? You're
- 52:02Speaker 2: going to have, like, Biden's going to be there and
- 52:04Speaker 2: Biden's surrogates are going to be there. Buttigieg's going to
- 52:06Speaker 2: be there. Buttigieg's surrogates are going to be there. Biden
- 52:08Speaker 2: and Buttigieg can also do cable TV from there. So, like,
- 52:12Speaker 2: I think it is a substitute, but it is not
- 52:14Speaker 2: equivalent to what they can do. And you could not, like,
- 52:18Speaker 2: let's say that they were there for, they were House
- 52:20Speaker 2: members doing the impeachment hearing. or they were senators during
- 52:24Speaker 2: a Supreme court confirmation where they could do something. They
- 52:28Speaker 2: literally have to take a vow of silence and do
- 52:30Speaker 2: nothing for 12 hours a day and they can't leave.
- 52:35Speaker 2: So it is, it is a very restrictive situation that
- 52:37Speaker 2: they are in.
- 52:38Speaker 1: Tell you the thing that I've been thinking about is just,
- 52:41Speaker 1: you know, in our, in our last couple of weeks
- 52:44Speaker 1: in Iowa in 2007, I guess it was 2008 at
- 52:44Speaker 1: this point.
- 52:45Speaker 3: Um, It wasn't.
- 52:49Speaker 2: It was 2007.
- 52:49Speaker 1: No, it was 2007 because the caucuses are what?
- 52:51Speaker 3: January 3rd.
- 52:52Speaker 2: January 3rd, right.
- 52:53Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 52:53Speaker 4: Okay.
- 52:53Speaker 1: So it was 2007. The big question for us was,
- 52:57Speaker 1: would the universe of caucus goers be what we thought
- 53:01Speaker 1: it would be? Meaning, would we get expanded turnout? Because
- 53:04Speaker 1: we knew that we could only win if turnout in
- 53:07Speaker 1: the caucuses basically broke records. And the other campaigns didn't
- 53:11Speaker 1: think that we would break those records. And I think
- 53:13Speaker 1: about that now with Bernie Sanders' campaign or even... if
- 53:17Speaker 1: it turns out Warren wins, right. Or if it turns
- 53:19Speaker 1: out Buttigieg wins, right. Like those are both all three
- 53:22Speaker 1: of those candidates, at least anecdotally. And in some of
- 53:25Speaker 1: the data you can see like hat are trying to
- 53:28Speaker 1: bring new people in to caucus. And, you know, particularly Bernie,
- 53:32Speaker 1: because they, they just have done so much organizing on
- 53:34Speaker 1: the ground for so long. And the big question I
- 53:37Speaker 1: have in this last week and a half is like,
- 53:39Speaker 1: does that materialize? Do all those new caucus growers turn out?
- 53:42Speaker 1: Because if they do, when you break all kinds of
- 53:44Speaker 1: records with turnout, uh, then I wonder if it benefits
- 53:47Speaker 1: a more insurgent candidate. Well, I mean, you asked me-
- 53:50Speaker 1: I mean, it does benefit the more insurgent candidate.
- 53:53Speaker 2: You asked me earlier about the difference between the polls.
- 53:56Speaker 2: And too many public media pollsters do not give us
- 54:00Speaker 2: enough information to fully judge the poll. You don't see crosstabs.
- 54:03Speaker 2: You don't have a real view of weighting or universe.
- 54:06Speaker 2: There are exceptions. We have folks like Nate Cohn who
- 54:08Speaker 2: are very transparent about it. The Des Moines Register poll
- 54:12Speaker 2: in 2008, it was actually 2007 because it came out
- 54:14Speaker 2: New Year's Eve, was our New Year's Eve president, that
- 54:17Speaker 2: showed Obama up seven. The reason that that poll was
- 54:20Speaker 2: much more favorable to Obama than a Mason-Dixon poll that
- 54:23Speaker 2: had come out a week earlier that showed Obama, I think,
- 54:25Speaker 2: in third.
- 54:26Speaker 3: Oh, really? Second or third, yeah.
- 54:28Speaker 2: And there were a couple very prominent endorsers who backed
- 54:30Speaker 2: off when that poll came out. They know who they are.
- 54:36Speaker 2: Was Ann Seltzer, the Democratic pollster, gauge turnout correctly. And
- 54:42Speaker 2: she had a more a less restrictive view of who
- 54:45Speaker 2: was a caucus goer than previous polls had done. And
- 54:48Speaker 2: I'd be very curious to know the difference between the
- 54:50Speaker 2: Des Moines Register poll that had Bernie winning and the
- 54:53Speaker 2: Monmouth poll that had Biden winning. Like what the difference
- 54:55Speaker 2: in methodology is there and whether the Des Moines Register
- 54:59Speaker 2: is doing a better job of capturing these new caucus goers,
- 55:02Speaker 2: which I think the assumption of everyone involved is that
- 55:06Speaker 2: turnout will be at least as high, if not higher
- 55:09Speaker 2: than 2008, which was the record.
- 55:10Speaker 3: Wow. All right.
- 55:12Speaker 1: When we come back, we will have Dan's interview with
- 55:14Speaker 1: Desmond Meade. Hey, everyone. Pod Save America and Love It
- 55:22Speaker 1: or Leave It are going on tour for 2020.
- 55:25Speaker 2: Between the news, this primary, and the general election.
- 55:28Speaker 1: That's right.
- 55:28Speaker 2: We're going to have a lot to talk about. So
- 55:30Speaker 2: come see us live when we're in your town.
- 55:33Speaker 1: Get those tickets at crooked.com slash events and come hang out.
- 55:35Speaker 1: That's crooked.com slash events.
- 55:43Speaker 2: I'm joined by Desmond Meade, president of the Florida Rights
- 55:46Speaker 2: Restoration Coalition, an organization run by and advocating for former
- 55:50Speaker 2: convicted persons. The Florida Rights Restoration Coalition was instrumental in
- 55:54Speaker 2: passing Amendment 4 in Florida in 2018 that restored the
- 55:58Speaker 2: voting rights of about 1.4 million Floridians. Desmond, welcome to
- 56:01Speaker 2: Pod Save America.
- 56:03Speaker 3: Hey, it's a pleasure, Ben. Thanks for having me.
- 56:06Speaker 2: When Florida voters passed Amendment 4 in 2018, it was
- 56:09Speaker 2: one of the single biggest acts of enfranchisement in the
- 56:11Speaker 2: history of the United States. But since then, Republicans have
- 56:13Speaker 2: pretty much pulled out all of the stops to undo
- 56:16Speaker 2: the work that was done. Desmond, can you tell us
- 56:18Speaker 2: what they have done and how the state Supreme Court
- 56:20Speaker 2: weighed in last week?
- 56:21Speaker 3: Yeah. So let me start by saying this.
- 56:23Speaker 4: And I think it's very important that we don't gloss
- 56:27Speaker 4: over what happened in November of 2018 when we passed
- 56:32Speaker 4: amendments for, you know, over 5.1 million people voted yes
- 56:36Speaker 4: for our amendments.
- 56:38Speaker 3: And that was a million more people.
- 56:40Speaker 4: That voted for our amendment than voted for anybody that
- 56:43Speaker 4: was on the.
- 56:43Speaker 3: Ballot, right?
- 56:45Speaker 4: In addition to that, what we've seen was that over
- 56:48Speaker 4: a million people who voted yes for Amendment 4 also
- 56:51Speaker 4: voted for the current governor, which showed a broad cross-section
- 56:56Speaker 4: of support for the amendment. And what was, I believe,
- 57:01Speaker 4: probably the most beautiful thing of that evening was the
- 57:04Speaker 4: fact that what we've seen was 5.1 million votes that
- 57:09Speaker 4: was not based on hate, was not based on fear,
- 57:12Speaker 4: but was rather based on love, forgiveness, and redemption. And
- 57:15Speaker 4: we were able to keep that campaign elevated above partisan politics,
- 57:20Speaker 4: above racial insecurities, and bring people.
- 57:23Speaker 3: Together along the lines of humanity.
- 57:25Speaker 4: And so the country actually got to see love winning
- 57:29Speaker 4: the day. And then when you talk about we're just
- 57:31Speaker 4: a few days removed from celebrating Dr. Martin Luther King,
- 57:35Speaker 4: it reminds me how He once said that hate can't
- 57:38Speaker 4: drive out hate, fear can't drive out fear, darkness can't
- 57:42Speaker 4: drive out darkness, but love can really defeat all.
- 57:45Speaker 3: Of those forces. And so when we.
- 57:48Speaker 4: Passed Amendment 4 and the legislators started getting involved, it
- 57:54Speaker 4: was very disheartening because we knew once that happened that
- 57:59Speaker 4: such a beautiful campaign and a beautiful... a beautiful application
- 58:07Speaker 4: or a beautiful movement to move such an important issue
- 58:11Speaker 4: was going to be drugged down into the cesspool of
- 58:13Speaker 4: partisan politics.
- 58:15Speaker 3: And what we've.
- 58:16Speaker 4: Seen was a very strong attempt to really clarify or define,
- 58:24Speaker 4: I should say, what completion of sentence was. We knew
- 58:28Speaker 4: that Amendment 4 created three conditions that would trigger the
- 58:31Speaker 4: right to vote, which is not being convicted of of
- 58:34Speaker 4: a murder, not being convicted of a felony sex offense,
- 58:38Speaker 4: and completing a sentence that's ordered by a judge to
- 58:41Speaker 4: include restitution. The legislation that was filed by the Republican
- 58:49Speaker 4: legislators initially, it expanded on all of those definitions. And
- 58:56Speaker 4: so we had serious problems with that.
- 58:59Speaker 3: And so the.
- 58:59Speaker 4: Main fight moving forward has always been around what is
- 59:04Speaker 4: completion of sentence. Does it include financial obligations? And if
- 59:08Speaker 4: it does, what type of of financial obligations do it include?
- 59:13Speaker 4: Our position has always been that if it included financial obligations,
- 59:18Speaker 4: it was only financial obligations that was attached to the
- 59:24Speaker 4: crime that someone was convicted of, right? That it was
- 59:28Speaker 4: only financial obligations that was punitive in nature and not
- 59:33Speaker 4: financial obligations that was administrative in nature. And so there
- 59:37Speaker 4: was a bunch of back and forth there. And just recently,
- 59:40Speaker 4: the Florida Supreme Court issued an advisory opinion to the
- 59:44Speaker 4: governor that combines the punitive financial obligations with the administrative
- 59:50Speaker 4: financial obligations and requiring a person to pay all of
- 59:57Speaker 4: those legal financial obligations before they can say their sentence
- 1:00:00Speaker 4: is complete.
- 1:00:01Speaker 2: Do you have an estimate on how many people that
- 1:00:03Speaker 2: could impact?
- 1:00:05Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, unfortunately, you know, prior to the Supreme
- 1:00:11Speaker 4: Court advisory opinion, we really relied on a lot.
- 1:00:15Speaker 3: Of research that's been done by.
- 1:00:17Speaker 4: What we consider to be the platinum standard for fellow disenfranchisement,
- 1:00:23Speaker 4: and that's by the sentencing project. And we determined that
- 1:00:30Speaker 4: out of the 1.4 million Floridians that would have been
- 1:00:34Speaker 4: immediately impacted by the passing of Amendment 4, we believe
- 1:00:38Speaker 4: that approximately 840,000 did not have any outstanding fines, fees,
- 1:00:44Speaker 4: or restitution, right, which left approximately 560,000 that do. But
- 1:00:51Speaker 4: with this Supreme Court advisory opinion, It seems now to
- 1:00:57Speaker 4: shift that balance a little bit more. And now we
- 1:01:01Speaker 4: believe that there's over 800,000 folks that total that all
- 1:01:09Speaker 4: fines and fees and court costs that the Supreme Court
- 1:01:13Speaker 4: is saying is now required to be paid. And so
- 1:01:17Speaker 4: we know that the number of people without any financial
- 1:01:20Speaker 4: obligations would be drastically reduced.
- 1:01:24Speaker 3: But we don't have those figures yet.
- 1:01:27Speaker 2: And where does the litigation go from here? Is there
- 1:01:29Speaker 2: any chance this can get resolved in a favorable way
- 1:01:32Speaker 2: by the 2020 election? I'm not heartened by the fact
- 1:01:37Speaker 2: you're laughing.
- 1:01:40Speaker 4: What I tell folks is this.
- 1:01:43Speaker 3: FRRC, Florida Rights Restoration Coalition, we're going to let the
- 1:01:47Speaker 3: litigators litigate. We're going to let the legislators legislate, right?
- 1:01:52Speaker 3: And we are going.
- 1:01:53Speaker 4: To continue to embrace the spirit of Amendment 4 and
- 1:01:57Speaker 4: remain keenly focused on the people, right? Right now, the
- 1:02:02Speaker 4: legislation that was signed into law in July of 2019
- 1:02:07Speaker 4: allows a couple different pathways for people with financial obligations, right?
- 1:02:14Speaker 4: We've always said wherever people see obstacles, we see opportunities.
- 1:02:18Speaker 4: And in that legislation that was signed into law, It
- 1:02:22Speaker 4: allows the courts to be involved and to be able
- 1:02:25Speaker 4: to modify a person's sentence that would remove the financial
- 1:02:31Speaker 4: obligations as an impediment to register and vote. We were
- 1:02:35Speaker 4: able to do that in November. We had John Legend
- 1:02:38Speaker 4: in Miami-Dade County in the 11th Judicial Circuit where we
- 1:02:42Speaker 4: were able to demonstrate that publicly to where people, no
- 1:02:45Speaker 4: matter what they owed, had the opportunity to go before
- 1:02:49Speaker 4: a judge and that judge would basically issue a ruling
- 1:02:55Speaker 4: that says that your financial obligations would no longer be
- 1:02:59Speaker 4: an impediment to you being able to register to vote.
- 1:03:02Speaker 4: And we were able to register people to vote right
- 1:03:05Speaker 4: there in the courtroom, right? The other pathway is for
- 1:03:09Speaker 4: a judge to actually take whatever is owed and convert
- 1:03:13Speaker 4: them to community service hours. So someone who may not
- 1:03:17Speaker 4: afford to pay whatever fines and fees and court costs
- 1:03:23Speaker 4: that are assessed to them, they have an opportunity to volunteer.
- 1:03:28Speaker 4: And here's the beautiful part, I mean, to do community
- 1:03:30Speaker 4: service hours.
- 1:03:31Speaker 3: Here's the beautiful part.
- 1:03:32Speaker 4: They can do community service hours by volunteering with an
- 1:03:35Speaker 4: organization that's going out there registering people.
- 1:03:38Speaker 3: To vote, right?
- 1:03:40Speaker 4: And so there's always, I believe, you know, if we
- 1:03:46Speaker 4: search hard, long enough, we could find silver linings in
- 1:03:50Speaker 4: these dark clouds. We could find opportunities to take the
- 1:03:53Speaker 4: lemons that's thrown at us and make lemonade. With 2020
- 1:03:58Speaker 4: being the most pivotal election, the most crucial election that
- 1:04:02Speaker 4: this country has ever seen, and this is not a hyperbole,
- 1:04:05Speaker 4: this is real, that our primary purpose, or what we
- 1:04:09Speaker 4: feel should be the primary purpose, focus of many organizations
- 1:04:14Speaker 4: and individuals is is to engage as many of our
- 1:04:18Speaker 4: fellow citizens as we can, get them registered to vote,
- 1:04:22Speaker 4: and engage them in such a way that they actually
- 1:04:25Speaker 4: turn out to vote in 2020. Florida historically has decided
- 1:04:30Speaker 4: presidential elections by 100,000 or less votes, right? We strongly
- 1:04:35Speaker 4: believe that just within the returning citizens community, we have
- 1:04:40Speaker 4: more than 100,000 people who can register to vote and
- 1:04:44Speaker 4: make a difference. But in addition to them, there are
- 1:04:47Speaker 4: still about 3 million Americans who are eligible to register
- 1:04:50Speaker 4: to vote that have not. And there are still about
- 1:04:53Speaker 4: maybe 2.4 and upwards millions of people who are registered
- 1:04:57Speaker 4: that don't historically vote. And so we have an amazing
- 1:05:01Speaker 4: opportunity to not get bogged down in litigation and not
- 1:05:07Speaker 4: get bogged down in the legislation and really focus our
- 1:05:12Speaker 4: energy and attention on on getting people registered to vote
- 1:05:15Speaker 4: and those who are registered, getting them out to the polls.
- 1:05:18Speaker 2: So Desmond, before I let you go, how can our
- 1:05:21Speaker 2: listeners help with the work that you're doing and help
- 1:05:24Speaker 2: people who don't have the money to pay the fees
- 1:05:26Speaker 2: and other things standing in the way of their voting
- 1:05:27Speaker 2: rights being restored?
- 1:05:28Speaker 3: Listen, that's a great question.
- 1:05:30Speaker 4: You know, recently, over the last few days, I've been
- 1:05:32Speaker 4: seeing a lot of chatter on social media where Folks
- 1:05:35Speaker 4: are challenging folks like Bloomberg and Steyer to put the
- 1:05:40Speaker 4: money where their mouth is and to really, you know,
- 1:05:43Speaker 4: if you have the ability to write that check, you
- 1:05:47Speaker 4: write that check. And free folks or free democracy, let's
- 1:05:52Speaker 4: get people registered to vote and get it out there
- 1:05:56Speaker 4: so folks can donate. We have a fines and fees
- 1:05:59Speaker 4: fund that we started last summer. We raised over $ 400, 000,
- 1:06:06Speaker 4: but we need much more than that. But folks can
- 1:06:11Speaker 4: donate to our fines and fees fund, and those monies,
- 1:06:17Speaker 4: 99% of that money will be used exclusively to help
- 1:06:21Speaker 4: people pay fines and fees off so they're able to
- 1:06:25Speaker 4: register to vote. Over the Christmas holidays, we were able
- 1:06:29Speaker 4: to spend about $ 265, 000 be able to get a couple
- 1:06:35Speaker 4: hundred people their right to vote back. Obviously, we need
- 1:06:39Speaker 4: much more money than that. And there are people out
- 1:06:42Speaker 4: there in the country that has the ability.
- 1:06:46Speaker 3: To write large checks.
- 1:06:48Speaker 4: And even those who don't, you know, every little bit helps.
- 1:06:51Speaker 4: People can go and they can text FEES, F-E-E-S, to 82623.
- 1:06:58Speaker 4: And there's a link that would take them directly to
- 1:07:00Speaker 4: the donation page. Or they could also go to our website.
- 1:07:04Speaker 4: at floridarrc.com, and there's a link there to help people
- 1:07:10Speaker 4: pay fines and fees. But together as a country, we
- 1:07:13Speaker 4: can unlock democracy in the state of Florida. And I'll
- 1:07:16Speaker 4: leave you with this, man. I can't remember. Maybe because
- 1:07:21Speaker 4: I'm not old enough, but I cannot remember the last
- 1:07:24Speaker 4: time somebody got.
- 1:07:25Speaker 3: Into the White House without winning the state of Florida.
- 1:07:29Speaker 4: And so this is a great opportunity for for folks
- 1:07:32Speaker 4: to help expand democracy in Florida and help drive out
- 1:07:37Speaker 4: more people to the polls, because we're going to need
- 1:07:40Speaker 4: a humongous turnout to really make sure that we have
- 1:07:44Speaker 4: an impact in this upcoming election.
- 1:07:47Speaker 2: Desmond, thank you so much for joining us. Your optimism
- 1:07:49Speaker 2: and activism is always so inspiring to us. Best of
- 1:07:52Speaker 2: luck with all this, and we'll be sure to check
- 1:07:54Speaker 2: in with you before Election Day.
- 1:07:55Speaker 3: Thank you so much. Looking forward to it.
- 1:08:03Speaker 1: Thanks to Desmond Meade for joining us today. One more
- 1:08:05Speaker 1: announcement before you guys go. So Democrats have a chance
- 1:08:09Speaker 1: to flip a really important seat in the Texas House
- 1:08:11Speaker 1: of Representatives next week. Elise Markowitz is the Democratic candidate
- 1:08:16Speaker 1: running in a special election on January 28th. Why is
- 1:08:19Speaker 1: it getting national attention, Dan?
- 1:08:20Speaker 2: Because there is few things that are more important for
- 1:08:23Speaker 2: Democrats than taking back the legislature in Texas. And Beto O'Rourke,
- 1:08:28Speaker 2: our old friend in his new organization, Powered by People,
- 1:08:30Speaker 2: has been down there working. Julian Castro was down there
- 1:08:33Speaker 2: knocking doors. And it's incredibly important and would send a
- 1:08:36Speaker 2: very powerful signal about what Democrats will do in 2020
- 1:08:40Speaker 2: if we can win this race.
- 1:08:41Speaker 1: And it's important to flip the Texas legislature partly because,
- 1:08:44Speaker 1: I mean, it's great to have a Democratic legislature in Texas,
- 1:08:47Speaker 1: but also redistricting.
- 1:08:48Speaker 2: That's right. We're heading into a redistricting year. And if
- 1:08:50Speaker 2: Democrats control the legislature, we can ensure that democracy is
- 1:08:53Speaker 2: not gerrymandered out of existence.
- 1:08:55Speaker 1: So very, very big. If you live in the Houston
- 1:08:56Speaker 1: area and you can get out and volunteer this week
- 1:08:58Speaker 1: for Elise, she needs your help. So go do that.
- 1:09:00Speaker 1: Everyone else, we will talk to you on Monday.
- 1:09:03Speaker 3: Bye, everyone.
- 1:09:08Speaker 1: Pod Save America is a product of Crooked Media. The
- 1:09:10Speaker 1: senior producer is Michael Martinez. Our assistant producer is Jordan Waller.
- 1:09:14Speaker 1: It's mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Kyle Seglin is
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- 1:09:20Speaker 1: Katie Long for production support, and to our digital team,
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