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Special Coverage: French Government Falls After Vote · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:02
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
0:07
Speaker 2: Lawmakers from the far left and right of France's political
0:10
Speaker 2: spectrum are set to combine and topple Prime Minister Michelle
0:13
Speaker 2: Barnier's government tonight in at Paris. The National Assembly set
0:17
Speaker 2: to reconvene as we speak, and that is when we're
0:20
Speaker 2: supposed to get the result. Covering it all is Stephen Carroll,
0:24
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio Daybreak Europe anchor. Stephen joins us from our
0:27
Speaker 2: Paris bureau. Stephen, good to see you this evening. Earlier
0:30
Speaker 2: in your career, you spent a decade working for France
0:33
Speaker 2: twenty four Television in Paris. You've interviewed President Emmanuel Macron,
0:37
Speaker 2: Prime Minister Michelle Barnier. How did we get to where
0:40
Speaker 2: we are today?
0:43
Speaker 1: I mean, the short answer is that Emmanuel Macron called
0:47
Speaker 1: an election in June. He wasn't happy with how his
0:49
Speaker 1: party date in European Parliament elections, so he decided to
0:52
Speaker 1: go to the country, dissolve the parliament, the National Assembly
0:56
Speaker 1: call elections, thinking that it would reinforce his position give
0:59
Speaker 1: French people the choice of who they wanted to govern.
1:02
Speaker 1: And fortunately French people didn't have the same idea. And
1:05
Speaker 1: what he ended up with was fewer numbers of MPs
1:08
Speaker 1: in the National Assembly and a very fractured parliament. That
1:11
Speaker 1: left three large groupings, the Marie Lepens National Rally on
1:15
Speaker 1: the right, the far right, his Centrist group which he
1:18
Speaker 1: picked up some of the center right party as well,
1:20
Speaker 1: and this left wing alliance which is the biggest group
1:23
Speaker 1: in the parliament as well. Nobody had a majority, nobody
1:26
Speaker 1: could govern. Then he had to try and find a
1:29
Speaker 1: government because his job as president he gets to nominate
1:32
Speaker 1: the Prime Minister and set the agenda for policy. He
1:35
Speaker 1: picked Michel Baunier, this man who has had a storied
1:38
Speaker 1: fifty year career in French politics. He's been a minister,
1:42
Speaker 1: He's been a European commissioner, he was the ease chief
1:44
Speaker 1: negotiator on Brexit. He is a statesman. He brings with
1:48
Speaker 1: him He's not from Macron's political family, so he brings
1:50
Speaker 1: with him the sense of somebody who is above the
1:53
Speaker 1: fray of politics. He's not currently an elected politician, so
1:57
Speaker 1: got him in to try and run the government to
1:58
Speaker 1: pass a budget, which was the biggest immediate concern. He
2:02
Speaker 1: brought the budget to Parliament, tried to negotiate a compromise
2:06
Speaker 1: with the various groups. Wasn't able to do that. Used
2:10
Speaker 1: a constitutional provision that allows them to force it through parliament.
2:13
Speaker 1: But unfortunately, the downside of using that provision is is
2:16
Speaker 1: that the opposition can call a vote of no confidence
2:19
Speaker 1: in the government. And that's where we are now, and
2:21
Speaker 1: they're currently voting. After about two and a half hours
2:24
Speaker 1: of debate in the French Parliament, lots of views expressed.
2:26
Speaker 1: Mitelvannie got up at the end to lay out his
2:29
Speaker 1: position to saying it's a moment of truth and responsibility
2:32
Speaker 1: for France and we'll find out if anyone listened to
2:34
Speaker 1: him in just a couple of minutes time.
2:37
Speaker 3: And Stephen, what happens in the immediate aftermath if the
2:42
Speaker 3: French government loses the no confidence vote.
2:47
Speaker 1: So we will. The first thing that happens is the
2:50
Speaker 1: government has to resign, right, so Mite Albanni and all
2:52
Speaker 1: of his ministers will present their resignation to the President.
2:56
Speaker 1: It then turns to the president who will have to
2:58
Speaker 1: appoint the next government. But the more immediate problem, because
3:02
Speaker 1: there's no deadline for when Emmanuel Macron would have to
3:04
Speaker 1: pick a new prime minister to lead and form a
3:07
Speaker 1: new government. The more immediate problem is is France's current
3:11
Speaker 1: budget runs out at the end of the year, so
3:13
Speaker 1: then we roll over into twenty twenty five and into
3:15
Speaker 1: relative political unknown. There won't be a shutdown, and it's
3:19
Speaker 1: actually been funny and a lot of the discourse here
3:21
Speaker 1: people that keep mentioning, oh, it won't be like the
3:23
Speaker 1: US government.
3:24
Speaker 2: Shot, yeah, that's our problem.
3:25
Speaker 1: They'll still keep collecting. Yeah, they'll still keep collecting taxes.
3:29
Speaker 1: Even using the word shutdown in French was quite funny.
3:31
Speaker 1: But they're still going to collect taxes. Public services will
3:33
Speaker 1: still run. But essentially what they'll do is they'll take
3:36
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty four budget, carve it up into twelve pieces,
3:40
Speaker 1: and each department will get a twelfth of their budget
3:42
Speaker 1: every month. That that presents, as you might imagine, all
3:45
Speaker 1: sorts of problems, because it's very difficult to run the
3:47
Speaker 1: state on that sort of month to month basis. It's
3:50
Speaker 1: not like working on your overdraft. And the other problem
3:54
Speaker 1: is is that there were a load of measures in
3:56
Speaker 1: this budget that we're going to change things, both for
3:59
Speaker 1: taxpayers and for welfare recipients. So for taxpayers, the tax
4:03
Speaker 1: thresholds for income tax were due to rise and line
4:05
Speaker 1: with inflation. If that doesn't happen, everyone's got well not everyone,
4:09
Speaker 1: but eighteen million households are going to be paying more
4:11
Speaker 1: tax from January. There's good news though for pensioners. They
4:15
Speaker 1: were due to get their inflation linked increase delayed after
4:19
Speaker 1: January to later in the year. They actually will get
4:22
Speaker 1: their inflation linked increase in January if there isn't a budget.
4:25
Speaker 1: But all of this presents the same problem that France
4:28
Speaker 1: has had since the middle of last year. It's budget
4:31
Speaker 1: death as it is too large for EU budget rules,
4:33
Speaker 1: but also to be able to convince markets, and we've
4:36
Speaker 1: seen France's international borrowing costs rise as a result. Part
4:40
Speaker 1: of the issue now has to be is they need
4:42
Speaker 1: to come up with a credible fiscal plan for the
4:45
Speaker 1: country so as to cam the fears that exist on
4:48
Speaker 1: the markets. And the rise in borrowing costs has been moderate,
4:51
Speaker 1: hasn't got to quite extremes yet, but it sets up
4:54
Speaker 1: a huge task for whoever's going to take over after
4:56
Speaker 1: Michel Bagni, if indeed he is forced to resign, to
5:00
Speaker 1: whether or not they can put together the plan and
5:02
Speaker 1: achieve something that a man who was legendary for his
5:05
Speaker 1: negotiation skills, wasn't able.
5:07
Speaker 2: To well, we are waiting to hear from the National
5:09
Speaker 2: Assembly about the results of that vote. We will bring
5:12
Speaker 2: that to you imminently as we do get the results. Stephen,
5:15
Speaker 2: what about other names that at this point have emerged
5:18
Speaker 2: to take over as prime minister? What can you tell
5:20
Speaker 2: us there, Hi?
5:22
Speaker 1: Michel Varnier ruled himself out in an interview on French
5:24
Speaker 1: television last night, which is important because it had been
5:27
Speaker 1: something that had been speculated that perhaps an annual macron
5:30
Speaker 1: might just say we'll give it another go. By the way,
5:33
Speaker 1: the last time this happened when the only time since
5:36
Speaker 1: the current constitution has been in force in France, which
5:38
Speaker 1: is since nineteen fifty eight, the only time it's happened
5:40
Speaker 1: that a government has lost a vote of no confidence
5:42
Speaker 1: was in nineteen sixty two.
5:44
Speaker 2: Stephen, I'm sorry to cut you off. We're getting again,
5:47
Speaker 2: We're getting a result right now. The French government falls
5:50
Speaker 2: after no confidence vote in Parliament. The French no commindant's
5:54
Speaker 2: motion passes with three hundred and thirty one votes. Two
5:56
Speaker 2: hundred and eighty eight were needed, not too surprising given
6:00
Speaker 2: how closely you followed this, but what's your immediate reaction.
6:04
Speaker 1: I mean, look, it means there wasn't any defections. Michelle
6:07
Speaker 1: Barnier's call for responsibility doesn't seem to have won over
6:10
Speaker 1: any of the MPs he was hoping. He was particularly
6:12
Speaker 1: targeting the center left Party, the Socialist Party, who've been
6:16
Speaker 1: in government in France many times in recent history. The
6:19
Speaker 1: question of whether or not some of those MPs might
6:23
Speaker 1: be willing to abstain, for example, from this vote to
6:26
Speaker 1: try and save the government. He doesn't seem to have
6:29
Speaker 1: convinced them with this message. That's the number in and
6:32
Speaker 1: around what we expected, because it's basically if you add
6:34
Speaker 1: together the Left Ring Alliance and Marion Lea Penn's far
6:37
Speaker 1: right National Rally, those parties put together give us that
6:40
Speaker 1: total of in and around three hundred and thirty. So
6:43
Speaker 1: it looks like that they didn't manage to convince anyone
6:45
Speaker 1: to cross the line. It's a result that's pretty much
6:49
Speaker 1: then in line with expectations, but now opens up the
6:52
Speaker 1: question of what happens next. What will Emmanuel Macron do.
6:56
Speaker 1: He's just landed back in France in the past few
6:58
Speaker 1: minutes from visit to Saudi Arabia, where he was trying
7:02
Speaker 1: to brush off a lot of these political questions at
7:05
Speaker 1: home and continue on with international affairs to little avail
7:09
Speaker 1: as everyone just wanted to ask him what he planned
7:11
Speaker 1: to do after this vote went through. He had been
7:15
Speaker 1: asked on many occasions whether or not he might resign,
7:19
Speaker 1: and he says that's not an issue, it's not even
7:21
Speaker 1: in question that he would do that. Of course, his
7:23
Speaker 1: term runs till twenty twenty seven, so we now set
7:26
Speaker 1: ourselves up for the timeline where the French President can
7:30
Speaker 1: take as long as he likes to appoint a new government.
7:33
Speaker 1: We don't think he's going to leave it that long,
7:35
Speaker 1: but it does plunge us into a sort of political vacuum.
7:38
Speaker 1: Now we'll have to have a caretaker government to keep
7:41
Speaker 1: current affairs running, but it's going to make those big
7:44
Speaker 1: challenges like dealing with the budget even more difficult.
7:46
Speaker 3: Stephen, do we have a good idea of who would
7:50
Speaker 3: likely be the next prime minister in what that new
7:53
Speaker 3: government would look like.
7:56
Speaker 1: We don't. There are a couple of names that have
7:58
Speaker 1: been floated around, but it's not a specific list of
8:01
Speaker 1: people that have been floated. You could imagine that Emmanuel
8:04
Speaker 1: Macron would try and pick from, if not his own
8:07
Speaker 1: political family, those who've already said that they would ally
8:10
Speaker 1: with him. There had been a question before Michel Barnier
8:13
Speaker 1: was picked as to whether he might be able to
8:15
Speaker 1: pick a politician from the Socialist Party, that center left
8:18
Speaker 1: party and thus bring them into this center alliance that
8:21
Speaker 1: he was trying to create. But they couldn't agree between
8:25
Speaker 1: the left wing parties on the same candidate that Emmanuel
8:27
Speaker 1: Macron want wanted. That was Bonno Kaznov, who's a former
8:30
Speaker 1: interior minister. He was the one who had been mentioned
8:33
Speaker 1: last time around. This was in the discussions that led
8:36
Speaker 1: up to Michel Barnier being picked. But the names that
8:39
Speaker 1: are out there now are in the realm of speculation.
8:42
Speaker 1: There's no rallied support around someone. There's no obvious candidate
8:46
Speaker 1: for who would take over, because the challenge facing the
8:49
Speaker 1: person who takes on that they have the same parliamentary
8:52
Speaker 1: match to deal with. Michel Barnier was dealt a very
8:55
Speaker 1: difficult hand. He didn't have a majority in parliament. He
8:58
Speaker 1: did his best to try and build a way of working.
9:01
Speaker 1: He always said that he was leaving it to parliament
9:03
Speaker 1: to be able to legislate and negotiate on important matters.
9:06
Speaker 1: That's failed. You have to ask who would be brave
9:09
Speaker 1: enough to step into those shoes, because it's a pretty
9:12
Speaker 1: nasty hand of cards to be hand them.
9:14
Speaker 2: That's exactly where I want to go. We're getting some
9:17
Speaker 2: commentary from France unbowed lawmaker Mattil Panaut, who says that quote,
9:22
Speaker 2: finally the Barnier government has fallen along with its violent budget.
9:26
Speaker 2: Today is a historic day. What does a budget look
9:30
Speaker 2: like in France after this process?
9:35
Speaker 1: Well, look, we go into this situation where we're going
9:37
Speaker 1: to be going month to month from January. There's very
9:40
Speaker 1: little hope that even if a government was formed tomorrow
9:42
Speaker 1: that they would be able to resuscitate this current budget
9:45
Speaker 1: plan and actually get anything in place by the end
9:48
Speaker 1: of the year. So either way, when it comes to
9:50
Speaker 1: the end the thirty first of December, we're rolling into
9:53
Speaker 1: this suppose minimum service French state that's going to be
9:57
Speaker 1: in place from January of next year, and that's going
10:00
Speaker 1: to bring back in those questions around tax rises for
10:03
Speaker 1: a lot of households who are paying income tax, those
10:06
Speaker 1: rises for pensions as well, and there were specific things
10:09
Speaker 1: like extra financial aid for farmers which now won't be
10:12
Speaker 1: paid out because that won't go into the budget bill.
10:15
Speaker 1: So the next immediate step is that there will be
10:18
Speaker 1: a motion that will need to be passed in Parliament
10:20
Speaker 1: to I suppose activate this temporary measures to keep the
10:25
Speaker 1: state running the lights on, if you will. There's not
10:28
Speaker 1: expected to be any major opposition to that because no
10:32
Speaker 1: French politician wants to be responsible for, you know, no
10:35
Speaker 1: welfare payments being paid early next year, So there's not
10:38
Speaker 1: an expectation that we will have anything but this month
10:41
Speaker 1: to month situation operating from January with a larger budget
10:45
Speaker 1: deficit and with the pressure that's going to put on
10:47
Speaker 1: France's borrowing costs and international markets as well.
10:50
Speaker 2: We're speaking with Stephen Carrol, Bloomberg Radio Daybreak Europe anchor,
10:53
Speaker 2: joining us from our Paris bureau. Stephen Carroll has about
10:56
Speaker 2: a decade of experience covering French politics working for France
11:01
Speaker 2: twenty four TV in Paris. I do also want to
11:03
Speaker 2: bring in Steven Englander, global head G ten x FX
11:07
Speaker 2: research at Standard Chartered Bank. He joined us from New York.
11:11
Speaker 2: Steven Englander talking a little bit about the market reaction
11:14
Speaker 2: here French bond future is now pairing an earlier advance.
11:17
Speaker 2: After the vote result, the europaired gains to trade little
11:20
Speaker 2: change that around a dollar five. How are you looking
11:24
Speaker 2: at market reaction here? What's the trade?
11:27
Speaker 4: Well, I don't think that there's any immediate trade. We
11:32
Speaker 4: started seeing French freads widen around the middle of November.
11:37
Speaker 4: The euro has probably about a percent lower than it
11:40
Speaker 4: would have been absent you know, this issue. I think
11:45
Speaker 4: the last few days the market has reconciled itself to
11:50
Speaker 4: a kind of very much a caretaker government. But also
11:54
Speaker 4: you know, with what the other Steve mentioned, which is
11:57
Speaker 4: that the budget itself is kind of an austerity budget
12:02
Speaker 4: because nothing's indexed in nominal terms. It's all the same
12:07
Speaker 4: level of spending, so it's a lower real spending. So
12:10
Speaker 4: from from a market perspective, this isn't a disaster right now.
12:16
Speaker 4: If it does become a political crisis, like even deeper,
12:20
Speaker 4: or if it spills over to the rest of Europe,
12:22
Speaker 4: that would become much more intense. And you know, as
12:27
Speaker 4: we've seen here, typically these things get resolved because one
12:30
Speaker 4: side or another decides that it's taking a political beating
12:33
Speaker 4: being seen as responsible for you know, whatever, checks don't
12:38
Speaker 4: go out or whatever.
12:40
Speaker 3: Stephn Engler I was going to follow up and ask
12:42
Speaker 3: does this affect ECB policy at all? Is the Central
12:46
Speaker 3: Bank thinking about kind of this uncertainty around what happens
12:49
Speaker 3: next with the French budget.
12:53
Speaker 4: I think the ECB is more you know, say, cognizant
12:55
Speaker 4: of these issues right there. You know, we just hurt
12:58
Speaker 4: Powell sort of, you know, drawing strict lines between fiscal
13:03
Speaker 4: and and you know, government and the Central Bank. I
13:07
Speaker 4: don't think the ECB has those strict lines going back
13:10
Speaker 4: to the European fiscal crisis, so you know, maybe a
13:13
Speaker 4: little more likely to cut to make things easier. But
13:16
Speaker 4: I think initially at least their focus will be on
13:19
Speaker 4: trying to prevent any kind of spillover into the rest
13:23
Speaker 4: of Europe and reassure markets that they're ready to take
13:26
Speaker 4: action if anything would happen.
13:28
Speaker 2: Steven England or when you say spillover, do you mean
13:30
Speaker 2: political spillover? Do you mean spillover when it comes to markets?
13:33
Speaker 2: How do you see it?
13:35
Speaker 4: Well? I think in the first instance, if we start
13:37
Speaker 4: seeing Italian spreads going up, and you know, Portuguese spreads
13:42
Speaker 4: going up, that's exactly what they don't want and what
13:45
Speaker 4: they would react to. Initially, it's a little bit more
13:47
Speaker 4: delicate to try and intervene on French spreads when it's
13:51
Speaker 4: a French political crisis. But for the rest of Europe,
13:54
Speaker 4: I think their role is unambiguous.
13:57
Speaker 2: I want to bring back in Stephen Carroll, who's in
13:59
Speaker 2: our pair of bureau. The far left France Unbound party
14:03
Speaker 2: calls for Emmanuel Macron to resign. I know you've been
14:07
Speaker 2: getting caught up just in the last few minutes, Stephen.
14:10
Speaker 2: What sticks out to you as far as other names
14:12
Speaker 2: that potentially have emerged, or what the political future of
14:15
Speaker 2: Macron is.
14:18
Speaker 1: I mean, look, Emmanuel Macron has brushed off any suggestion
14:20
Speaker 1: that he will resign. There's no way that he can
14:23
Speaker 1: be forced to. This vote doesn't affect his position in power,
14:26
Speaker 1: and he's due to stay in office until twenty twenty seven.
14:30
Speaker 1: A person who very keenly would like him to resign,
14:32
Speaker 1: and we've seen that on the decision that she has
14:35
Speaker 1: made in supporting this no confidence motion is Marie Lepenn,
14:39
Speaker 1: the far right candor's course was the person who went
14:41
Speaker 1: up against Macron the last two presidential elections. Her support
14:45
Speaker 1: has been growing slowly and the margin by which Emmanuel
14:49
Speaker 1: Macron defeated her in the last presidential elections, was much
14:52
Speaker 1: smaller than in twenty seventeen. So she would very much
14:55
Speaker 1: like for there to be an early presidential election to
14:58
Speaker 1: get a chance for her to be a to get
15:00
Speaker 1: a shot at the presidency. Now it's not unusual that
15:04
Speaker 1: we'll have that same call from the far left. They're
15:06
Speaker 1: actually one of the biggest groups in Parliament, so they
15:09
Speaker 1: know that they have also significant support and that's been
15:12
Speaker 1: the story of how politics has evolved under Emmanuel Macron
15:16
Speaker 1: in poos who've seen greater support for far right and
15:19
Speaker 1: far left parties as a result. Some of those other
15:22
Speaker 1: names that you mentioned for prime minister, I mentioned Bernard
15:24
Speaker 1: Casnov a minute ago, the former socialist prime minister and
15:27
Speaker 1: Interior minister as well. Perhaps the left might be able
15:30
Speaker 1: to agree on him perhaps forming a government and that
15:33
Speaker 1: would open up the left side of the Parliament to
15:37
Speaker 1: be able to perhaps form a centrist coalition. Other ones
15:41
Speaker 1: that we have been talking about is the likes of
15:43
Speaker 1: Francois Bairrou, who is a centrist politician and early supporter
15:46
Speaker 1: of Emmanuel Macron way back when he ran for presidents
15:48
Speaker 1: the first time around. As well, quite a similar profile
15:51
Speaker 1: in some ways to Michelle Bannier. He's been around a
15:53
Speaker 1: long time in French politics. He has a certain amount
15:55
Speaker 1: of respect for the positions that he's had as well,
15:57
Speaker 1: and perhaps he could be someone who could draw people
15:59
Speaker 1: to either. But he's not really outside of the current
16:02
Speaker 1: alliance that mac Grown's in. You think this because he's
16:05
Speaker 1: already tried Michelle Bangiy someone who's already out of domestic politics,
16:08
Speaker 1: that perhaps he might be looking for someone a little
16:10
Speaker 1: bit bigger next time around that'll pull in new votes
16:13
Speaker 1: and new supports, so that'll be able to create some
16:16
Speaker 1: currency in parliament as well.
16:17
Speaker 2: Stephen Carroll, we're gonna have to let you go. I
16:19
Speaker 2: know you've got a busy night ahead of you. We
16:21
Speaker 2: definitely appreciate you taking the time and it joining us.
16:22
Speaker 2: That's Stephen Carroll of a Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. He's an
16:26
Speaker 2: anchor for Bloomberg Radio, joining us from Paris. So do
16:29
Speaker 2: you want to get back to Stephen England or Global
16:31
Speaker 2: head g TENFX Research at Standard Charter Bank, joining us
16:34
Speaker 2: from New York. The front French stocks closing in on
16:38
Speaker 2: their worst year since twenty ten, although the CAC forty
16:41
Speaker 2: today seemed to shrug off this news. It rose seven
16:44
Speaker 2: tenths of one percent. Can you talk about the equity
16:46
Speaker 2: market reaction around this at all?
16:50
Speaker 4: Well, you know, I think there's just a lot of
16:53
Speaker 4: uncertainty there, and you know, obviously there will be pockets
16:56
Speaker 4: where maybe they were, you know, expecting some help from
17:01
Speaker 4: the budget and that's not going to come. But I
17:03
Speaker 4: think it's more broad macro uncertainty than there is any
17:08
Speaker 4: you know, specific equity market risk. What we could see
17:12
Speaker 4: is is, you know, right now the turnover budget, it's
17:17
Speaker 4: sort of an austerity budget if it does turn out
17:19
Speaker 4: that they say reached an agreement, but it's much more expansionary.
17:24
Speaker 4: You know, we could see an equity market reaction, but
17:26
Speaker 4: we could also see markets looking at the fiscal situation
17:30
Speaker 4: and being a little concern.
17:32
Speaker 3: What about the outlook here for US versus Europe. We've
17:37
Speaker 3: obviously been watching europaroity. We're not there quite yet, but
17:41
Speaker 3: there's a lot of talk about the US dollar continuing
17:44
Speaker 3: to strengthen against other countries, other regions, including Europe. What
17:49
Speaker 3: are you kind of watching levels wise, and does this
17:52
Speaker 3: news in France kind of change the narrative at all?
17:57
Speaker 4: Well, dook, I think it does put U P. I mean,
18:01
Speaker 4: it obviously has put parody a little bit closer, if anything.
18:04
Speaker 4: What's surprising, you know, my guess is that we saw
18:08
Speaker 4: one percent, maybe slightly less three quarters of a percent
18:11
Speaker 4: impact on the Euro. So the market is seeing it
18:15
Speaker 4: as an issue. It's not really seeing it as a
18:17
Speaker 4: market crisis. If something were to develop that really led
18:22
Speaker 4: to prolonged political uncertainty, that would be much harsher. But
18:28
Speaker 4: I you know, till now, the market is sort of
18:31
Speaker 4: seeing it as a bad but not as a as
18:33
Speaker 4: a very bad
18:35
Speaker 2: Stephen England are global head G ten FX Research at
18:38
Speaker 2: Standard Charter Bank, joining us from New York