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The EU trade deal, and One Nation’s South Australian election · Inside Politics

0:00
S1: Paul, I've got a pop quiz for you. Do you
0:01
S1: know what the difference is between parmesan cheese and parmigiano-reggiano?
0:06
S2: I'm not sure I do, but parmigiano-reggiano sounds like something
0:10
S2: I'd pay lots more for, because parmesan cheese reminds me
0:13
S2: of the Kraft green parmesan that I use on my pasta.
0:17
S1: Oh yeah, I actually quite like that stuff. Don't tell.
0:19
S1: Don't tell our Italian listeners. What about the difference between
0:22
S1: prosecco and sparkling wine?
0:24
S2: Both cheap, able to be drunk quickly and less expensive
0:28
S2: than champagne.
0:30
S1: Um, next time we actually need to do this properly
0:32
S1: with a blind taste test. But my final question is,
0:34
S1: why are we actually talking about delicious things from Europe
0:38
S1: this week?
0:38
S2: Well, we've signed a big new trade deal with the EU,
0:41
S2: which is the last big shock that we don't have
0:44
S2: a free trade agreement with.
0:46
S1: Yes, that's exactly right. This week, while we were all
0:49
S1: freaking out about the oil crisis, and rightly so, the
0:52
S1: EU president, Ursula von der Leyen, visited Australia to finalise
0:56
S1: a trade deal between us and the EU. So negotiations
1:00
S1: for this have been on and off for eight years.
1:02
S1: And so it was not a moment too soon that
1:04
S1: we signed it. But as we're going to discuss, this
1:06
S1: wasn't just about delicious foodstuffs from Europe and indeed Europeans
1:11
S1: getting access to our delicious foodstuffs for that matter. It
1:14
S1: was also about shoring up our strategic security in a
1:17
S1: very uncertain time. I'm Jacqueline Maley, and you're listening to
1:20
S1: Inside Politics from the Age and The Sydney Morning Herald.
1:23
S1: And I'm joined, as usual, by our chief political correspondent,
1:26
S1: Paul Sacher from Canberra, Paul. Ursula von der Leyen, apart
1:30
S1: from having exquisite bone structure and sort of sort of
1:34
S1: steely European elegance to her, she addressed Parliament on Tuesday
1:38
S1: and she was the first female leader to do so.
1:40
S1: I read, which I found actually a bit depressing. Can
1:43
S1: you set the scene for us? You were in the chamber.
1:45
S1: She played to the crowd a little bit with references
1:47
S1: to pavlovas and flat whites, but actually her overall message
1:51
S1: was pretty grim.
1:53
S2: She's extremely European in her presentation, isn't she? She's got
1:58
S2: that kind of pan European accent which you can't quite pick.
2:01
S3: Honourable members and senators, distinguished guests. Indeed, my visit to
2:07
S3: Australia this week constitutes many firsts. I am the first
2:12
S3: president of the European Commission to visit Australia in more
2:16
S3: than a decade.
2:18
S2: Has that technocratic air. Former minister in the Christian Democrat
2:24
S2: Party and the kind of centre right party in Germany,
2:26
S2: which is their version of the Liberal Party? Now the
2:29
S2: EU leader and becoming a pretty influential kind of avatar
2:35
S2: in this new debate about the rise of middle powers.
2:39
S3: I recently said that Europe could no longer be custodian
2:44
S3: of the Old World order. This just reflects the reality
2:49
S3: of our changing environment. But this does not mean giving
2:55
S3: up on who we are, on our values that matters
3:01
S3: whether you are Europe or regional power. Like Australia.
3:06
S2: Her message was relatively grim. She. In pretty plain language
3:11
S2: similar to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who was also
3:15
S2: in Australia a few weeks ago and addressed the House
3:17
S2: of Representatives, made the point that countries like Australia, who
3:21
S2: are influential but not dominant in their region, need to
3:24
S2: band together and try and find complementarity where they can
3:27
S2: on defense, on dealing with misinformation, which kind of highlights
3:32
S2: the political alignment between the centrist European political class and
3:36
S2: the centre left Australian government, who are very focused on
3:40
S2: taking on big tech in contrast with the US. She
3:44
S2: talked about the difficulty of dealing with the Trump administration,
3:48
S2: which has obviously been very harsh towards its NATO allies
3:52
S2: in Europe, which which Donald Trump accuses of not pulling
3:54
S2: their weight on defense spending, which has forced them to
3:58
S2: make long awaited increases in defence spending, as well as
4:01
S2: including in Germany, where von der Leyen hails from. And
4:06
S2: she also talked about the difficulties in our region. She
4:10
S2: made a warning about not getting too close to China
4:13
S2: and getting the China question right. So overall, painting a
4:16
S2: picture of a more treacherous world where old alliances are
4:21
S2: not holding and the need for middle powers to be
4:24
S2: much more proactive in finding security and complementarity where they can.
4:29
S1: Well, she said, the world that we live in is harsh,
4:31
S1: unforgiving and brutal. It feels upside down. What we knew
4:33
S1: as certainties are in question. The comfort blanket of yesterday
4:37
S1: is ripped away. It is confronting, which I it's kind
4:40
S1: of it's really strong rhetoric, but I actually found it
4:42
S1: kind of refreshing because it's, it's it's grasping the bull
4:45
S1: by its horns and it's actually confronting reality, which our
4:48
S1: government doesn't seem to like to do so much, or
4:51
S1: at least not publicly, as you say. She also talked
4:54
S1: about how we can't be overdependent on China, basically. And
4:57
S1: she also talked about green energy, didn't she? And sort
5:00
S1: of sort of said, and I'm paraphrasing that the oil
5:03
S1: shock is sort of unwelcome proof that perhaps the best
5:06
S1: energy security is in renewables. So tell us what she
5:10
S1: said and how it went down, particularly with the coalition
5:12
S1: members in the chamber.
5:14
S2: Yeah. To your first point, just briefly on the the
5:17
S2: really sharp and honest language, I think you're right. It
5:19
S2: does stand in contrast to Australian ministers when they talk
5:22
S2: both about the China threat and the difficulty in our
5:24
S2: relationship with the US. The Labour approach to these matters
5:28
S2: is really to use scripted, very careful, often fence sitting
5:32
S2: language on both questions with China. The mantra is agree
5:35
S2: where we can and disagree where we must, which is
5:38
S2: kind of, you know, a method of avoiding sharp differences
5:42
S2: where they obviously exist. And with the US, it's to
5:45
S2: try and keep Trump onside to whatever extent they can
5:48
S2: to not poke the bear. Australia is in a different
5:51
S2: situation to Canada and the EU in some regards, because
5:55
S2: we haven't really felt the brunt of a big Trump
5:57
S2: assault yet. There's Greenland with Europe and with Canada. Trump
6:00
S2: talks about making it the 51st or 52nd. I forget state,
6:04
S2: so we're in a slightly different scenario there. But you're
6:06
S2: right to say there is a contrast on this question
6:09
S2: of von der Leyen's stance on green energy. This has
6:13
S2: been a really interesting theme this week. A few days
6:16
S2: before or one day before von der Leyen spoke, we
6:19
S2: had the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol,
6:24
S2: addressing the Press Club on Monday. This is the guy
6:26
S2: kind of leading the global approach to managing the oil crisis,
6:30
S2: a really influential Paris based organization, the IEA, and his
6:34
S2: point on Monday was that Australia has amazing natural assets
6:37
S2: in wind and solar. And the way that you insulate
6:40
S2: yourself from global shocks is to build out your renewables capacity,
6:43
S2: because they're clearly not affected by global shocks. And von
6:48
S2: der Leyen repeated this point on Tuesday in her speech
6:51
S2: to the parliament to say, hone in on self-sufficiency. Renewables
6:55
S2: is the way to go. This came about halfway through
6:59
S2: her speech. To that point, the coalition MPs in the
7:02
S2: very packed House of Representatives, where senators go in to
7:05
S2: watch as well. The coalition MPs were nodding along to
7:08
S2: various things. I think there's some skepticism about EU politics
7:11
S2: on the conservative side of Australian politics, but she kept
7:15
S2: the whole room pretty perky through some jokes about flat
7:18
S2: whites and whether pavlovas were from New Zealand. But when
7:21
S2: she made this point about green energy, there were a
7:23
S2: fair few eyerolls a dampening in the enthusiasm levels on
7:28
S2: the coalition side. So that was an interesting moment.
7:31
S1: Yeah, very graceless behaviour, I think when you have an
7:35
S1: eminent European guest, I'm speaking to the Parliament, but as
7:38
S1: we were sort of we were sort of talking about
7:40
S1: this offline and just saying how, um, the best spin
7:43
S1: that you could put on it is that it's impractical
7:45
S1: for the coalition side of politics to deny the energy
7:51
S1: security benefits of renewable energy sources. And at worst, you
7:55
S1: could say it's just rank hypocrisy. You know, this this
7:58
S1: is a side of politics that has talked so much
8:01
S1: and is talking more and more about our resilience and
8:05
S1: our need to be self-sufficient and our need for industrial sovereignty,
8:09
S1: particularly around our sources of energy. And this is the
8:12
S1: one thing that no one else can kind of really
8:14
S1: mess with and that global supply chains can't affect is
8:17
S1: wind and sun. And the coalition's still dismissing it completely
8:22
S1: out of hand.
8:24
S2: Yeah. Renewables has turned into and this is not shared
8:28
S2: across every member of the coalition. But if you observe
8:32
S2: how they've dealt with climate debates in recent years, renewables
8:35
S2: has become a bit of a dirty word. And so
8:37
S2: even when a hard headed, uh, kind of technocrat such
8:42
S2: as von der Leyen makes a common sense argument about
8:45
S2: Australia's natural advantages, they're not able to really grapple with
8:48
S2: that without a reflexive hostility. And on the on the
8:52
S2: labor side, I think this crisis has also exposed some
8:55
S2: of the biases on on the left side of politics
8:57
S2: in terms of how it views the energy debate. Our
9:00
S2: self-sufficiency in terms of oil has been exposed, our natural
9:06
S2: resources in terms of how we export coal and gas
9:09
S2: to Asia, which we're now trying to leverage with those
9:11
S2: Asian nations to ensure a consistent flow of oil, has
9:14
S2: put a spotlight on how valuable our fossil fuel industry
9:18
S2: is to our national wealth, our national self-sufficiency. Labour has
9:21
S2: maintained a pretty balanced approach to fossil fuels. You know,
9:24
S2: climate activists would accuse them of being in bed with
9:27
S2: the fossil fuel sector. But there was some anti-gas rhetoric
9:30
S2: in the early part of the government, which has dropped
9:32
S2: away as they've taken a more pragmatic approach. So this
9:36
S2: crisis has exposed the denial on in sections of the coalition,
9:40
S2: as well as some of the biases and ideological stances
9:45
S2: in parts of the left.
9:46
S1: I mean, of course, now we're sort of seeing noises
9:49
S1: made from the right side of politics that sort of
9:51
S1: echoed in various press organs, that we should be drilling
9:54
S1: our own oil resources. I think we've only got two
9:58
S1: oil refineries left in Australia, and they're saying we should
10:00
S1: go back to basics and just dig up our own oil. Mhm. Yeah.
10:04
S2: And you even hear that from one of the most
10:07
S2: moderate liberals, Andrew Bragg, who's now the environment spokesman. As
10:11
S2: of the last reshuffle, he's he's just been getting he's
10:14
S2: a kind of productivity guy and a free market guy.
10:16
S2: And he's just been reading the not never really taken
10:19
S2: any great interest in the environment, but he's just started
10:21
S2: reading the big Environmental Act, which Labour has recently reformed.
10:24
S2: And he's kind of pulling his hair out thinking these
10:26
S2: regulations are so over the top, so burdensome, and we
10:31
S2: should be doing much more extraction of our resources to
10:34
S2: drive up our national wealth and to help make energy
10:37
S2: cheaper and boost productivity through environmental regulations. So yeah, there's
10:43
S2: some interesting movements on the coalition side here.
10:45
S1: It's a live debate. Let's talk about the trade deal,
10:48
S1: the European free trade deal itself. Just briefly at the moment,
10:52
S1: we impose a 5% tariff on European imports and that
10:55
S1: will be removed. And on our side, 98% of Australian
10:59
S1: goods will now be able to be sold in the
11:00
S1: European market without any tariffs or duties. So it's a
11:03
S1: good deal for Australian consumers. Those European goods will become
11:07
S1: cheaper for us. The trade deal, as you said, has
11:10
S1: been a long time coming and we very much. I mean,
11:13
S1: Ursula von der Leyen basically said, you know, the election
11:16
S1: of Donald Trump and him bringing in his tariffs basically
11:20
S1: brought everyone back to the table to negotiate. And they
11:22
S1: had sort of a much more open attitude to each
11:24
S1: other in the new environment. There were some issues with
11:27
S1: naming rights. You know, some of the names we treat
11:30
S1: as sort of generic are actually trademarked. So they're the
11:32
S1: intellectual property of the country or the region that makes them.
11:35
S1: So I think we kept our ability to call prosecco prosecco,
11:38
S1: at least for a while, parmesan kransky. But producers of
11:42
S1: ouzo and parmigiano-reggiano, as we discussed earlier, we'll have to
11:45
S1: find other names. Some sectors are unhappy with the deal
11:49
S1: and I'm thinking particularly about farmers. So red meat producers,
11:52
S1: sheep and beef farmers, dairy farmers are unhappy. Cane growers
11:56
S1: are unhappy. The timber industry is unhappy. They all said
11:59
S1: it was, you know, a really terrible deal, particularly the
12:02
S1: beef and cattle, the beef and sheep guys. Who is
12:05
S1: happy with the deal?
12:07
S2: Winemakers are happy. And more broadly, if you talk to
12:11
S2: trade experts and economists who are thinking about the aggregate
12:14
S2: effect of this deal and the the the overall economic impact,
12:18
S2: they would say that there will be growth in exports
12:22
S2: and more imports across various sectors to varying degrees. And
12:26
S2: so there'll be an increase in economic activity in some
12:29
S2: boost to GDP growth. I think we should be sceptical
12:31
S2: about the numbers the government puts on this, because the shiny,
12:34
S2: glossy figures at the front of an FTA handbook often
12:39
S2: are often never materialize, and they end up somewhere between, um,
12:44
S2: no net effect and the highest numbers. But there is
12:48
S2: a sense that this will increase trade, mobility and key
12:52
S2: white collar sectors that our farmers will be able to
12:55
S2: send more there and will be able to get cheaper
12:59
S2: European cars, which had a 5% tariff on them. BMW
13:02
S2: and Mercedes and things, as well as cheaper high end EVs.
13:07
S2: Because a lot of European EVs fit into the higher
13:11
S2: end of the price spectrum, which had luxury car tax
13:14
S2: incurred on it, the threshold for that is increased. Some
13:17
S2: of these farming groups, and the nationals in particular, are
13:20
S2: arguing that the quotas we've been granted for beef exports
13:25
S2: into Europe were no better than what we had pre,
13:29
S2: I think, 2019, the year is when, in a deal
13:33
S2: with the Trump administration, the EU reduced other countries quotas
13:37
S2: on red meat to quite small levels and gave the
13:40
S2: US a bigger share of the global quota. So Labour
13:43
S2: says they've got these red meat quotas up about eight
13:47
S2: times what they were. But farming groups argue that they
13:50
S2: were at that point, uh, earlier last decade anyway. And
13:53
S2: they're calling it one of the worst trade deals of
13:55
S2: all time. So, uh, farming groups in the EU are
13:58
S2: also really angry because they say that Australia has hormones
14:02
S2: and other things pumped into our meat that breached their
14:05
S2: own standards. EU farming groups are notoriously provincial and, uh,
14:11
S2: politically powerful and politically powerful, particularly particularly in France. So
14:16
S2: there's a bit to play out here. It still has
14:17
S2: to go through the EU Parliament, which we expect it
14:19
S2: will do. But not not not everyone's happy. I think
14:22
S2: the symbolism of this deal and what it meant in
14:25
S2: terms of, uh, raising up the benefits of free trade
14:28
S2: at a time when its value is being discredited in
14:32
S2: various parts of the world through populist movements, was in
14:35
S2: some ways a more notable part of the week than
14:38
S2: the substance of the deal itself.
14:39
S1: The fine print. What did the coalition have to say
14:42
S1: about the deal? Nationals leader Matt Canavan. I've heard a
14:44
S1: bit from him this week. He's been especially outspoken about it.
14:48
S1: I feel like Angus Taylor's been I don't know if
14:50
S1: maybe I haven't been paying enough attention. Maybe it's because
14:53
S1: the ABC's been on strike, which is where I get
14:56
S1: a lot of my news. But I haven't heard so
14:58
S1: much from Angus Taylor.
15:00
S2: Yeah, I think that's a fair observation. I've not either.
15:05
S2: I saw him on the today show on Thursday morning,
15:08
S2: but I've not seen him out and about hugely over
15:11
S2: the last couple of weeks. And I haven't heard his
15:12
S2: comments on the trade deal. I think overall there is
15:15
S2: I've heard a couple of people in Canberra say this
15:17
S2: week that his profile in his first I don't even
15:21
S2: know how long he's been in the job now.
15:23
S1: How long I'm going to say like 3 or 4 weeks.
15:26
S2: Something like that has not been. He hasn't been at
15:29
S2: the cutting edge of debate for much of his period
15:33
S2: as leader. In the first couple of weeks, uh, listeners
15:36
S2: will recall the ISIS brides issue was really at the
15:38
S2: forefront of national debate, and Taylor rolled out these quite
15:43
S2: pithy and catchy one liners on protecting Australians way of
15:47
S2: life and increasing our standard of living, and shutting the
15:50
S2: door to people.
15:51
S1: Who are talking about shutting the keeping the door shut.
15:54
S2: Yeah. Which I think I think resonated in that debate,
15:57
S2: especially because there was a new buzz around Angus Taylor.
15:59
S2: There was a clarity of message that Sussan Ley was
16:01
S2: not able to, um, to bring into her political operations,
16:06
S2: but he's kind of drifted out of national debate. Uh,
16:09
S2: he's still putting his office together. And I think there
16:13
S2: was always a risk with electing Matt Canavan, as well
16:15
S2: as putting Tim Wilson into the shadow treasurer job, that
16:18
S2: those two men who were quite eye catching, love being
16:21
S2: in the media, love the brawl. Uh, were always going
16:24
S2: to put pressure on Taylor in terms of the, the
16:28
S2: kind of, uh, attention on the coalition. Taylor is a
16:31
S2: pretty staid Orthodox figure who doesn't love television interviews.
16:36
S1: He prefers doesn't have a colourful turn of phrase.
16:39
S2: Yeah, exactly. So let's, let's say let's see how he
16:41
S2: goes over coming weeks. But he has taken it back.
16:44
S2: He has taken a step back a bit from the.
16:46
S1: Just seems like a golden political opportunity to talk about,
16:49
S1: you know, the government selling Australian farmers down the river,
16:52
S1: so to speak. Um Matt Canavan has said that it's
16:55
S1: the worst trade deal in history.
16:57
S2: I think he has I'm not sure. I think a
17:00
S2: key point to make here is I'm not sure Angus
17:01
S2: Taylor would agree that it is the worst deal ever
17:03
S2: because as a as a more laissez faire, free, market
17:07
S2: focused liberal, I imagine he would look at the net
17:10
S2: effect in terms of what this deal does to overall
17:14
S2: trade levels, and I suspect he would not be as
17:17
S2: keen as Canavan to take some of the loudest voices
17:21
S2: in the farming community and make that the crux of
17:23
S2: his debate. But at a time when political point scoring is,
17:25
S2: is is at a premium, there's a chance that he
17:27
S2: does lean into that.
17:28
S1: Yeah. It's odd. I mean, his electorate is very pastoral
17:30
S1: as well. So I wonder what the people in his
17:33
S1: electorate are saying about it. But putting aside the anger
17:36
S1: from some producers about this deal, as you said before,
17:40
S1: it's a bigger picture. It's about diversifying our international relationships,
17:44
S1: sort of making sure we're not too dependent on China,
17:46
S1: but also making sure we're not too dependent on the
17:48
S1: United States, which is just a really volatile ally now.
17:52
S1: They're not a huge trading partner, not as huge as
17:55
S1: China is, but strategically, they're obviously the most important. So
17:59
S1: I feel like the Albanese government has and indeed the
18:03
S1: EU have sort of tried to sell it really as
18:05
S1: a as a hedge against risk haven't they.
18:08
S2: Yeah. That's right. We don't do heaps of trade with
18:11
S2: the EU at the moment. It's it's significant. But it's
18:13
S2: not one of our top trading partners I did think.
18:15
S2: I do think I saw a prediction perhaps from Don
18:19
S2: Farrell speaking. I'm just trying to remember where I saw this.
18:21
S2: The trade minister maybe speaking to Latika Bourke in the nightly.
18:24
S2: Suggesting that this deal will see the EU overtake the
18:28
S2: US in terms of where they rank in our list
18:31
S2: of top trading partners. So just another moment to display
18:37
S2: to the public. The Australian government's yeah approach to find
18:41
S2: as many points of complementarity as possible to work with
18:46
S2: like minded allies wherever we can, because those elephants in
18:51
S2: the room, the US, which is, um, you know, showing
18:54
S2: no regard for the old rules around free trade. And China,
18:57
S2: which uses 3 to 5% of its GDP each year
19:01
S2: to pump subsidies into its own industries, which have the
19:04
S2: effect of hollowing out. Ours are still standing there. Those
19:08
S2: elephants in the room. And so we've got to do
19:09
S2: what we can to to, to hedge and diversify, as
19:11
S2: you say.
19:12
S1: Yeah. And credit where it's due. The government has actually
19:14
S1: this this government has actually pushed through a lot of
19:16
S1: those smaller trade deals or trade deals with smaller trading partners.
19:20
S1: Just want to touch briefly on, you know, we're talking
19:22
S1: about right wing politics before. I want to touch briefly
19:25
S1: on the South Australian election, which happened, of course, last weekend.
19:28
S1: Labor's Peter Malinauskas won a resounding victory, which was expected.
19:32
S1: But the real story for most pundits was the One
19:34
S1: Nation vote. It was extraordinary. They won about 22% of
19:38
S1: the vote, which is an increase of 19% on the
19:42
S1: vote at the last election. And the Liberals polled about 19%.
19:46
S1: So they had a swing against them of 16 or 17%.
19:50
S1: Pretty much all of the people who voted One Nation
19:53
S1: were former Liberal voters. I just feel like all the
19:56
S1: adjectives we can come up with catastrophic, devastating are not
20:00
S1: sufficient to describe this phenomenon for the Liberal Party.
20:05
S2: Yeah, sometimes it's difficult to put words to genuinely kind
20:09
S2: of tectonic shifts that are occurring when history is actually
20:11
S2: unfolding in front of your eyes. Yeah, it anyone who says,
20:15
S2: and I have heard some MPs say, oh, One Nation
20:17
S2: was always going to rise. After Dutton left the show
20:19
S2: and Sussan Ley tacked towards the centre, we got rid
20:22
S2: of all our policies under Sussan Ley, so there was
20:24
S2: a gap there. I think anyone trying to say that
20:26
S2: they expected One Nation to rise into the 20s in
20:29
S2: an actual election is is putting a post-hoc rationalization on
20:33
S2: it and try and make themselves sound smart? Nobody expected this.
20:36
S1: There's nothing wrong with that. We do that all the
20:38
S1: time on this podcast.
20:40
S2: I'm. I'm actually never wrong, Jack. I don't know about you.
20:43
S1: Um, we're going to fact check that later. But anyway.
20:45
S2: No, I had no idea this was coming. And anyone
20:47
S2: who says they did is, is, is kidding you. But
20:50
S2: what this South Australian result shows, I think is that firstly,
20:54
S2: the polling numbers are real. It does translate into votes
20:57
S2: on election day. So that hope that liberals had that
21:00
S2: these numbers were just what people said to a pollster
21:03
S2: on the phone. We know that's not true. It might
21:06
S2: still be the case that these numbers are based on
21:09
S2: a national vibe and a buzz around a new disruptor,
21:14
S2: which is giving the major parties a middle finger after
21:17
S2: years of poor governance at national and state levels and
21:22
S2: almost 15 years of living standards kind of flatlining. So
21:26
S2: I think we'll see see over coming months and years, really,
21:30
S2: scrutiny will grow on one nation at a federal level
21:33
S2: where there's a much bigger media spotlight than at a
21:35
S2: state level, where there was really nothing to scrutinize. In
21:37
S2: South Australia, they didn't have an incumbent leader. There were
21:40
S2: no policies. The Liberal Party was totally dishevelled in South Australia.
21:44
S2: The result was known for months in advance, and so
21:47
S2: a conservative voter could switch out to one nation knowing
21:50
S2: they had no real impact on the result, because what.
21:53
S1: Was gonna happen.
21:53
S2: Was going to win. So it was a free protest
21:55
S2: vote in some ways.
21:56
S1: Yeah.
21:57
S2: So having said all that, there are some there are
21:58
S2: some reasons for liberals to think that the national spotlight
22:01
S2: will get the Liberals back in the game. Having said that,
22:05
S2: this is also proof that, oh, maybe not proof. This
22:09
S2: is also a sign that there are voters out there
22:11
S2: who don't really care that One Nation doesn't offer solutions,
22:16
S2: that they're not a credible governing alternative, that they are
22:19
S2: so fed up with. The coalition, have such a lack
22:21
S2: of confidence in the coalition's ability to project a message
22:24
S2: that that affects their lives and creates a vision for
22:28
S2: a better country, that they're actually willing to vote for
22:31
S2: a party that doesn't have much to say about how
22:34
S2: it would govern, because they're the change option. They're the
22:37
S2: option that says the system's no good. We're just going
22:40
S2: to shake the place up. And perhaps those voters don't
22:43
S2: come back to the Liberals en masse. That's the big
22:45
S2: risk for the libs that not only are they voted,
22:47
S2: they're not even voted against at election time. They're just
22:50
S2: looked over. They're seen as an irrelevance. That's the big risk.
22:53
S1: I mean, when you talk about people having a lot
22:55
S1: of antipathy towards the liberals, I feel like actually antipathy
22:59
S1: would almost be good at this point because that is
23:01
S1: some strength of feeling at the moment. I feel like
23:03
S1: it's an indifference, like they're becoming sort of irrelevant because
23:07
S1: they've created a vacuum around themselves. When you talk about
23:11
S1: the sort of motivations, I suppose, of One Nation voters
23:15
S1: at the moment and how it translates at the moment,
23:18
S1: I think even with that huge swing to One Nation
23:21
S1: in South Australia, I think at best they might win
23:24
S1: four seats in the lower house, right? So it's not
23:26
S1: a huge amount for that percentage of the vote. Doesn't
23:30
S1: the One Nation Sort of swing to one nation, just
23:34
S1: decimate the Liberal Party, but actually help to return labor governments.
23:37
S1: Like if we saw that, if we saw that replicated
23:39
S1: in in Victoria at the state election next year, this year,
23:42
S1: or in New South Wales at the state election next year. Yeah,
23:46
S1: they're just going to return the labor premiers, aren't they?
23:48
S2: You're 100% right. There is a total delusion in some parts.
23:53
S2: Parts of the sky after dark crowd, some in the
23:56
S2: coalition who are on the right, who believe that there
23:58
S2: could be some sort of benefit to the overall centre right.
24:02
S2: If one nation rises and this populist threat kind of
24:05
S2: enters the political fray, that would only be the case
24:08
S2: if one nation rose to such an extent that it
24:11
S2: started to win seats off labor. We saw in South
24:13
S2: Australia that labor lost support in some working class areas
24:16
S2: to one nation, quite a significant amount, but they still
24:19
S2: held almost all the seats. I think the One Nation
24:22
S2: might win a couple, and they have a enormous supermajority
24:27
S2: in the Legislative Assembly at a federal level. The polling
24:30
S2: also suggests that almost all of One Nation's support is
24:33
S2: coming from previous coalition voters. They've started to eat into
24:36
S2: the labor primary vote a little bit, but labor, if
24:38
S2: an election were held today, would absolutely. Uh, I was
24:42
S2: going to say shit it in. I shouldn't use language
24:44
S2: like that. They would, they would, they would absolutely dominate.
24:48
S2: And so this idea of a coalition between one nation and, uh,
24:52
S2: and the coalition which Hanson has floated herself is folly.
24:56
S2: And the hard heads in the coalition know this. And
24:58
S2: they are in the process of coming up with a
25:00
S2: plan to try and degrade Hanson's credibility, to elevate the
25:05
S2: excesses of Barnaby Joyce and his, uh, his character flaws,
25:09
S2: to try and expose their policy agenda because they now
25:13
S2: have two fights on their hand, they need to consolidate
25:16
S2: the centre right to ensure that they're not decimated like
25:18
S2: they were in South Australia. And then after they do that,
25:21
S2: should they succeed, which is a tough ask to try
25:23
S2: and beat labor. Not easy.
25:25
S1: I feel like being in the process of coming up
25:27
S1: with a plan. Guys, you needed a plan yesterday. You
25:29
S1: needed a plan last year anyway. Um.
25:32
S2: They did. They were too busy trying to. Trying to
25:34
S2: deal with the Susan Lee. Problem.
25:37
S1: Um, just quickly to just catch us up quickly on
25:40
S1: where we're at with the fuel crisis because I think
25:42
S1: there's a few movements on in national cabinet.
25:44
S2: Yeah. So there'll be a national cabinet meeting on Monday, uh,
25:48
S2: which is will be about two weeks after the first
25:50
S2: national cabinet meeting met to address this oil shortage. The
25:54
S2: Prime Minister made a comment on Saturday last week, when
25:58
S2: asked about fuel rationing and demand side measures, like working
26:01
S2: from home and encouraging other policies to help people conserve fuel.
26:06
S2: He had a very reflexive response. He said, well, that's
26:09
S2: a matter for the states and territories. It's not a
26:11
S2: matter for me. Don't ask me about that.
26:12
S1: That didn't work out so well for Scott Morrison in
26:14
S1: the pandemic.
26:15
S2: It didn't. And some of some of his colleagues are
26:17
S2: well aware of that political risk. They want him to
26:19
S2: be more involved, just like state premiers do. And so
26:22
S2: throughout the course of this week, there have been conversations
26:24
S2: around the at cabinet level about creating a more nationally
26:28
S2: consistent plan around demand side measures. You know, soft encouragements
26:33
S2: to nudge people to use less fuel. We expect that
26:35
S2: will be talked about at that Monday meeting. We're not
26:39
S2: quite we don't know if we're quite there yet to
26:42
S2: announce those suggestions or recommendations or whatever you call them.
26:45
S2: But the government is moving in that direction and the
26:47
S2: expectation that they will be required, and the prime ministers
26:50
S2: needed to be kind of kicked, kicked in the backside
26:53
S2: a bit by some of his colleagues to get there.
26:55
S1: Right. Coaxed gently along the road. So basically, we're talking
26:58
S1: about voluntary measures at this point as opposed to anything,
27:02
S1: you know, any sort of measures that are imposed on
27:04
S1: us like rationing. Um, I think we're away from that yet.
27:07
S1: But then who the hell knows? Paul. That's all we've
27:10
S1: got time for. Let's do it again next week. With
27:14
S1: a prosecco in hand and a nice hunk of parmigiano-reggiano
27:18
S1: in the other.
27:20
S2: I can't wait, and maybe a. Oh, what was the other?
27:22
S2: What was that cheese anyway?
27:23
S1: I mean, there's feta. There's um you know, there's Gruyere,
27:27
S1: which I think we're not allowed to call Gruyere anymore
27:30
S1: if we produce it in Australia. But, you know, on
27:32
S1: this podcast we call cheeses by whatever we want to
27:34
S1: call them, right?
27:36
S2: Maybe a bit a hunk of Munster.
27:39
S1: What's that?
27:40
S2: I think this is like an Irish cheese that was
27:42
S2: part of this. Anyway, let's clean up these jokes because
27:45
S2: they're bad.
27:47
S1: I could talk about cheese all afternoon, but we've both
27:49
S1: got work to do. Okay.
27:50
S2: All right.
27:51
S1: Great to see you. You can read all of our
27:56
S1: political news on our websites, The Age or smh.com.au. Today's
28:03
S1: episode was produced by Kai Wong with help from Debbie Harrington.
28:07
S1: Our executive producer is Tammy Mills, and our podcasts are
28:10
S1: overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. Before you go,
28:14
S1: follow Inside Politics and leave a review for us on
28:17
S1: Apple or Spotify. I'm Jacqueline Maley, thank you for listening.