Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / NFL Week 7 Leverage Lane | October 18, 2025 | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS

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NFL Week 7 Leverage Lane | October 18, 2025 | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: The systems going clear, the lift up.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: What's up everyone, Tyler Tamberline here aka TOTEG and Tambo
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: back for another edition of Leverage Lane here on the
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: Ship and Nation YouTube station. You're going to talk all
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: things single entry through twenty max four Week seven with
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: my guy Alex Blickel. I know we've got a ton
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: of good feedback so far, Alex. People are loving this show.
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: If you wanted content like this, now you've got it.
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: A lot of people like the focus on the single
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: entry stuff, So hit that thumbs up on the way in.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: Make sure you're subscribed to the channel Alex. Week seven ahead, man,
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: But we had a decent week six going through some stuff.
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: What's your thoughts on the week six? And then we'll
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: get into all things week seven ahead with ownership, how
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: to leverage the common build ownership in ways you haven't
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: heard before, and then we'll talk about our light at
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: the end of the lane once we get down the path.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: No narrative street, just Leverage Lane, like.
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: We always say, what's going on, man, how you doing.
• 1:20
  Speaker 4: Doing very well? I liked what you kind of mentioned
• 1:23
  Speaker 4: on Mao's show yesterday, kind of talking about how this
• 1:26
  Speaker 4: is the part of the season where pricing gets a
• 1:28
  Speaker 4: little bit tighter, correlation means a little bit more, and
• 1:31
  Speaker 4: I think we're starting to see that this week, where
• 1:34
  Speaker 4: if you took the Dallas game off of this slate,
• 1:36
  Speaker 4: the conversation would be how ugly this late is and
• 1:39
  Speaker 4: how there's no great stacks. But I also think we,
• 1:43
  Speaker 4: or at least that there were no stacks that really
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: stood out. But now I think the fact that that
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: game does exist, it's consolidating ownership, it's giving us some
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: clearer lanes to leverage, of course, and it's also giving
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: some options to play into that game. So I think
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: this sets was a really nice, fun slate, and I
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: also thought last week I played it pretty well. I
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: just made one mistake, and actually that one mistake kind
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: of took me off something great. I had Flacco, Chase
• 2:16
  Speaker 4: Jacobs and Craft ready to fire up, which like that
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: felt pretty risky at the time, having seen what Flygo
• 2:24
  Speaker 4: and Jase just did to the Steelers. Actually think, oh man,
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: that was even better than I realized, but came off
• 2:29
  Speaker 4: of it for a Chargers double stack. We talked to
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: a little bit about this yesterday on the Mastermind Show,
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: but I felt like I made a mistake playing Keenan
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: Allen when I was like the our ownership was the
• 2:42
  Speaker 4: only ones in the industry that had Keenan Allen as
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: a chalky guy. I had him at twenty one percent.
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: He came in at twenty three percent. Second highst in
• 2:50
  Speaker 4: the industry was fourteen percent, and I played him. So
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: I don't want to make that mistake again. But I
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: think that this is another week where I feel really
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: strongly about the ownership, and I think there are going
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: to be some ownership advantages and I think they're going
• 3:02
  Speaker 4: to be some advantages in terms of just finding some
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: really good separators. So yeah, very good for this week.
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: Well one thing for you for certain, I mean you
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: have a ton of sharp takes. People are all over them,
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: they work out quite often, but just go on them
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: the next game out like your Necro Collins.
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: For the Millie.
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: Oh No, not gonna get you that this week. But
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: the next week I'm gonna just break the slate and
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: crush the browning stuff with everything like that and the
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: Flacco takes, and then it becomes like Flacco's just rollback game.
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: Even I teased it in our discord because everyone was like,
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: here comes Aaron Rodgers. I said, oh, all that to
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: throw a pick, just trying to give him shit a
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: little bit. He comes back and does it, and then
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: I tease it because I'm obviously a former Ravens fan.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: Everybody knows I loved him and had to defend joe
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: Flacco being elite for.
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: All those years.
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: But I said, too much time for Joey Flacco. You
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: guys left him too much time. This guy's elite, And
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: of course they came back. T Higgins was the signature
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: team player, got the job done. McPherson hits the field
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: goal and the game's there. But that was an incredible
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: Thursday night game. So we'll get into this as usual,
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: Gonna break down ownership, like I said, in the way
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: you've never heard before.
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: We talk about it from a single entry perspective.
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: We talk about some of the combinatorial ownership, where there's
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: different groups and things that people are piecing together based
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: on the chalk, how to leverage the common build, including
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: the player combinations and the game stacks. There's definitely late
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: swap things this week to talk about when it gets
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: to that as well, and then we'll put it all together.
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: The light at the end of the lane is never
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: really dialed in until we go through those first two segments.
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: But before we get into it, Alex, you'd mentioned it
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: by the way I put it out there at eight
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: thirty Eastern, I think, and it's already go collect has
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: already got through it. So I'm gonna do that stuff
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: first quickly, just to make sure people know, because I
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: think it's important that they see what we're up to.
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: Like we're dialing it in. We're getting things dialed in
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: across the board. And if you guys haven't checked out
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: ship a Nation, go use code ship nineteen join the Nation.
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: You can get in and try it out. Alex did
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: join me.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: If you go here on ship at Nation and click Mastermind,
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: it'll take you here. You can scroll down to join today.
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: It's a one time payment, so you can join once,
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: or you can join with an equal three pains, and
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: so for less than one hundred dollars you can get
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: in and I'll show you the interview. So Alex and
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: I talked yesterday for over an hour and forty minutes,
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: going back and forth about his history and how he plays,
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: and his process and single entry and satellites and ROI
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: and literally anything, everything possible you can think of, and
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: just great things about life.
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: But this is the one I think too a lot
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: of people are talking about over the last week.
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: I just posted in our discord if you're looking to
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: leverage the Stone and Saber sim and how it like,
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: we have how two's on the site, but Nads and
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: I did an hour of breaking down how we use
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: it particularly, so I think this alone is worth the
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: ninety nine bucks to get in the door. But just
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: ship nation dot com click Mastermind and then if you
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: want to make sure you're in with Alex, he'll tell
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: you more about what he's got going on.
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: But he explains it all right here in this episode.
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: All right, Alex, let's break it all down.
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: We've got ownership to talk about first, and I'm just
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: gonna have a look here. The one thing I will
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: say this week is it looks to me like we
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: are getting a very popular quarterback for one Like usually
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: we say like, oh, they're all pretty much twelve percent
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: and under, And it's not the one I want to
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: say no to. It's act Jaden Daniels who's getting popped
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: up the most, and he's one hundred dollars less than
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: hashtag never mahomes. But what are your thoughts on the
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: original ownership by position, just to get a general idea
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: for people out there, because there's a lot of different
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: takes on it with the weather game and all these
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: different factors as well.
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the first thing that we need to
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: kind of be a little bit patient with is the
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: Deebo Samuel stuff. We think he's going to play, but
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: we don't know he's going to play. We also don't
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: know if he's going to be full strength if he plays,
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: Like I kind of hope that he does play and
• 6:39
  Speaker 4: is the clear fad in the game, because especially if
• 6:41
  Speaker 4: he's going to be popular and he's going to be,
• 6:44
  Speaker 4: you know, the most common pairing for Jayde and Daniels
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: or the most come and bring back to Dak stuff.
• 6:49
  Speaker 4: I think that's at least a very easy way to say, Okay, well,
• 6:52
  Speaker 4: what if his foot really is just hurt and he
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: can't do the things that he usually does, because like,
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: that's that's his entire game, right, Like he's not some
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: savvy route runner. His entire game is predicated on his
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: ability to run fast and run strong, and if he
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: can't do those things, he's not an effective football player.
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: He's not an effective receiver. So I think that's my hope.
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: If we don't get that, like now, we're going to
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: get some mega chalk super cheap wide receivers in the
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: fifty four and a half total with the super effective
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: rushing quarterback. Like that's going to be a really hard
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: thing to figure out. So we got to wait and
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: see about that. But what we have this week is
• 7:31
  Speaker 4: one very clear game that people want to play, and
• 7:34
  Speaker 4: then two very clear mega chalk pieces that are extremely
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: easy to play, regardless of the Rosser construction that you choose.
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: So Quin Shawn Judkins, we've got a fifty percent Rushie Rice,
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: We've got a forty nine percent sing lunching. I kind
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: of think that's going to go up to like sixty percent,
• 7:49
  Speaker 4: but I think by the time we get to Sunday,
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: So we'll keep an eye on those. But then Lamb
• 7:55
  Speaker 4: Deebo Krosskey Merrit's going to be somewhat popular. I think
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: I've gone and projected well above mark because I think
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: anyone who doesn't play the Jade and Daniels stuff is
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: going to make the very clear and obvious connection. Okay,
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: I'll just use Krusky merrit to leverage them. So, yeah,
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: Daniels zach Ertz, I think could end up becoming one
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: of the most popular tight ends in the slates. So
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: it's going to be jam packed with ownership. But I
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: also think it is so much better than any other
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: game that it might not be something that we want
• 8:24
  Speaker 4: to go away from. It might be something that we
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: want to find a contaring way to play.
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, and I think that's part of the
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: conversation because after Jade and Daniels, it's Mahomes who fits.
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: With the rice stuff.
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: And just remember a lot of that stuff is coral,
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: like we always talk about it when we get there,
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: but like who is the jock? Why are they the jock?
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: And then how does that sort of make everything? How
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: is it connected? That's a prime example of how it's connected.
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: And then the other thing is Dak on the other side,
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: because originally, and even yesterday when Mayo Squirrel and myself
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: we're building out lineups, just the early first look type
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: of thing, trying to put things together. It's like, Okay,
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: Dak is really hard to play unless we get some
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: value opening up, because it was like Dak pickens, it's
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: only two hundred bucks less than Lamb Lamb is back.
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: Ferguson is right up there as the second highest tight end,
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: right after McBride. It was like, Okay, this gets expensive,
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: especially if you got to use Debo or Crosskey Merritt
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: on the other side. But then it was like, oh
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: wait a minute, now these guys could be out too,
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: and this could end up happening as far as like
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: the Deebo stuff with mclaur and McLaurin already out waiting
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: on the Deebo news. But that would open up the
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: Luke McCaffrey's at forty one hundred the more play.
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: At three k. So to your point, I think that
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: nailed it.
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: Give me your quick thoughts what you're seeing at the
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: running back position outside of Judkins, because I'm seeing him
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: like way up there, and I think he's a whole
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: conversation in his own because of the fact that I
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: know he failed on a seventy eight and a half
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: rush total last week, which we talked about a ton
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: on our Sunday show with Hoop and Title and Title
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: actually ended up having to bust out the crop top
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: to a lost bet, even though Warren barely did anything
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: on the other side for that game. Warren came back
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: with a good game this past week. But just to
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: note it, he's like a ninety eight now half or
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: ninety five and a half rush total minus one point
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: fifteen anytime touchdown twenty one and a half rush attempts
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: juice to the over, Like you you do all kinds
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: of stuff with props and different things that you're looking at.
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: Is Judkins just I mean the Veggas number and the projections.
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: They all factor in this weather. There's still thirty six
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: points and they're still almost twenty for Cleveland.
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: How do you handle that one? And then what else
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: are you seeing at the running back position.
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: I think it's a really fun place to start is
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: with quinch On, and then we'll kind of go into
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: the rest of the position. But I always like to
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: use these rushing props to remind people what they actually say,
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: because on the one hand, like you're gonna have a
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: ton of people who look at Quinchon's rushing prop and
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: they say, oh my god, it's ninety four and a half,
• 10:42
  Speaker 4: ninety five and a half whatever it is, like, we
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: can't possibly not use him. That's the highest I've seen
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: it doesn't imply that he's going to go out there
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: and rush for one hundred and fifty yards and two touchdowns.
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: It implies that ninety five is kind of a median outcome,
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: but they're also probably not going to be throwing much.
• 10:58
  Speaker 4: He is a receiving prop of ten and ancl half,
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: So like, one outcome that's very much within his range
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: is eighty rushing yards, no touchdowns, no receptions, and it's
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: an awful DFS day. So yeah, it is a massive,
• 11:13
  Speaker 4: massive rush prop, and it is entirely possible if he
• 11:17
  Speaker 4: runs for two hundred yards and three touchdowns. This Miami
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: defense is atrocious, so he like the ceiling, by all means,
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: is wonderful. I even think the median outcome is good.
• 11:29
  Speaker 4: But there is a very clear downside here, and I
• 11:31
  Speaker 4: would say that he's more volatile than most running backs,
• 11:34
  Speaker 4: especially most running backs who are this popular at only
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: six thousand dollars, So my initial instinct is faded unless
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: I have a really contrarian stack that I think is
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: going to help me separate, and then I'll just go
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: to Judkins to say I already have the edge, I
• 11:52
  Speaker 4: just want you to preserve it for me. So That's
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: why lean on Judkins rest of the position. I do
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: have slightly different ownership projections at the moment then a
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: lot of what's around the industry. I have Krosky Merritt
• 12:03
  Speaker 4: as the second most popular at only twenty three point
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: six percent, Jonathan Taylor twenty two point six, Breecee Hall
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: Javonte Williams right around twenty percent, and then Jacob's between
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: fifteen and twenty. I think there's a lot of volatility
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: around all of those guys. It wouldn't surprise me if
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: I have some of them up at thirty percent by Sunday.
• 12:23
  Speaker 4: It also want to surprise me if I have someone
• 12:24
  Speaker 4: like Breese hall Way down between ten and fifteen percent.
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: I think he's the quintessential guy who is going to
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: show up in first runs of optimizers. He's going to
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: show up because of projections and people aren't going to
• 12:34
  Speaker 4: like it. And so the question is are people going
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: to end up trusting the optimizer, trusting the projection that
• 12:39
  Speaker 4: they're being told, or are they going to use their
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: own input and say no, I saw how incompetent that
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: offense was last week. I saw him get twenty two
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: rushes and still be an absolute bust. I'm not falling
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: for that again against a much improved Carolina defense. So
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: I don't know what people are going to do yet.
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: With Bryce or with Breece. I think that's probably like
• 13:00
  Speaker 4: the one that can swing the farthest. As I mentioned,
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: he could be ten percent, he could be thirty percent,
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: and I think you can make that same case for
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: Jonathan Taylor and for Javonte Williams. You know, the Javonte stuff,
• 13:10
  Speaker 4: I think is largely like what do people want to
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: do with the Dallas receivers because the obviously the more
• 13:15
  Speaker 4: they use the Dallas receivers, the less they're gonna use Davonte.
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: But people are going to get a piece of Dallas
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: one way or another. So he's kind of dependent on
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: those guys. And then Jacobs is the other one where
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: just about everybody is I think looking at Jacobs as
• 13:30
  Speaker 4: like a luxury they would love to have in their lineup,
• 13:32
  Speaker 4: but he doesn't. He's not the priority because he doesn't
• 13:35
  Speaker 4: have the you know, the thirty five to forty point
• 13:39
  Speaker 4: explosion that a Jonathan Taylor has, so they're not going
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: to force him in either. So another guy who he
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: could be fifteen percent, he could be twenty five percent,
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: and it's less about how people feel about Jacobs and
• 13:48
  Speaker 4: just more about do people land on that as an
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: option in their lineups.
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: And also it's about late swap.
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: I think for some of these guys too, Like we
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: saw even last week Jacob, so he's usually in the
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: later window. And what ended up happening was he was
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: lower projected, but then I think more people switch to
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: him like Nads and I look at that on Monday
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: mornings and you see like his ownership got a much
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: bigger boost after the fact. But it was based on
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: some of the happenings of the morning and how it's
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: all connected.
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: The one thing I'll say, and.
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: You didn't really you committed to it, like what your
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: projections have, But like you said, it's really hard to tell.
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: And I think it is tricky and hard to tell
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: with Bill with crosskey Merit, because what happens is people
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: don't off.
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: People often don't want to play the quarter We always
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: talk like, how is it all connected?
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: People often don't want to play the quarterback with the
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: running back if they're on Jaden Daniels and we know
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: they are in some way shape or for him, I
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: know it's only you know, twenty out of every hundred
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: are on him, but I'm saying he's going to be
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: around twenty percent in single ledge.
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: Let's just say this number somewhere in that range. It's
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: that That's where I think the there is.
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: Some some steam and some moonwalk to Breis Hall and
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: Merit because of their price difference being so close. I
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: think more people end up on Javonte just because if
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: they can't get to Lamb, they don't want to risk Pickens.
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: Ferguson's not really a priority.
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: We do have other tight ends, which we'll get there
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: in just one second, where I I think that's where
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: at least people say okay, but I kind of want
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: to still get a piece of that Dallas game. And
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: then the way I see the booster or the bump
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: to Bill would be if we get it later on
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: based on late swap where people's overstacks of that game,
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: which we'll talk.
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: About in the second segment, I get there.
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: That's definitely possible. The reason why I have n't projected
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: as high as I do is because I expect Dak
• 15:22
  Speaker 4: Prescott to come in more popular than the rest of
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: the industry. Things I've got him at fifteen percent, and
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: if you're using the dark side, it is such like
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: a clear and obvious decision to say, Okay, how does
• 15:32
  Speaker 4: Dak beat Jayden Daniels If this game shoots out, I
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: need touchdowns to come on the ground for Washington and
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: through the air for Dallas, So crosskey Marrit becomes a
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: very easy decision for people. So that's why I have
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: him as high as I do.
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: And also very important to remember that if like More
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: becomes a play at three K, it really boosts the
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: Dak side as well as that, and it also affects
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: then Mahomes, it affects the other guys in behind that
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: where it's like people will just take their Rashie Rice
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: and say I'll just leave him as a underpriced value
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: versus that. By the way, his stuff is interesting as well.
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: We're going there, so let's segue to that now. One
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: last thing I'll say at running back is like Barkley, Jacobs, Dobbins,
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: DeAndre Swift all good plays, I think, and people are
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: talking about them, but they're not going to be able
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: to click them enough or be able to get them
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: enough unless they manually adjust.
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: But those are all good options. Just four the im
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: name it off the top of my head. But I
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: can tell you just you can't get to the It's
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: just you won't get to them very often unless you
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: make it happen personally.
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and Devon Hhan eighty one hundred dollars on the
• 16:34
  Speaker 4: other side of the Judkins stuff, right, So, like, imagine
• 16:37
  Speaker 4: a game script where it's not even necessarily that, like
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: the Miami defense is shutting down Judkins. It's more, what
• 16:43
  Speaker 4: if the Miami offense is just having those really slow
• 16:48
  Speaker 4: first down after first down after first down drives and
• 16:50
  Speaker 4: eight Chan finishes this game with like nine receptions for
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: ninety yards in a touchdown and adds sixty yards in
• 16:56
  Speaker 4: a touchdown on the ground. I assume they don't expect
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: him to have though one hundred and thirty yard eight
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: yard per carry two rushing touchdown game against Cleveland that
• 17:04
  Speaker 4: he just had, but he's got so many passes one
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: of those passes that they just have like a well
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: orchestrated short passing game to beat the Cleveland pass rush
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: all game, which probably not going to be affected by
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: wins even if it gets up there to like forty
• 17:17
  Speaker 4: miles an hour and rainy. So there is that path
• 17:21
  Speaker 4: to an eight chan smash that also holds Judkins in check.
• 17:27
  Speaker 4: And like you said, he's in no man's land of
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: the pricing eighty one hundred dollars. If people can spend
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: eighty one hundred dollars, they're probably spending it on Jacobs
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: or the safe one ceiling game, or they're just gonna
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: find the extra seven hundred. He gets to Jonathan Taylor.
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: So I've got eight chan hunder ten percent, and I
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: feel pretty strongly about that in single entries, and man's
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: that intriguing.
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: I like that one too, And again they're not that
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: you need these two together. But I'm saying if you
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: ended up landing on something like a Chan and Fannin
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: or a Chan and Judy.
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: Or something like that, it's just not going to be
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: when you talk about when we get to it later.
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: Of like combinations, you're not gonna see that very often,
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: and people are avoiding the spot or trying to pick
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: one because of the weather. Also, I think Cleveland, d
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: when we get there, could pick up some steam because
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: people are going Judkins that it looked like it be
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: lower owned to start the week. But I think that's
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: gonna be a little bit more popular, and you said
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: it before. It goes directly actually with the prop factors
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: that you mentioned, they're medium project like it's all priced in.
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: That's why the projection is only like one point more
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: for a chan. And then people are like, well, that's horrible.
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: Why would I do that when I can get the
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: same score from the guy on the other side of
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: the game for way less.
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: Wait there's more.
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: The game script flips and all of a sudden it's
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: a chan doing the work. And we had this last year. Anyone,
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: here's my rants. All the time it was a Camara
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: versus Tyrone Tracy Junior game. Tyrone Tracy Junior way less
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: money more matchup was good, but so is the other side.
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: Everyone played that and it was a huge Kamara game
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: and it was like that was the breakdown where it
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: was like, oh, what if it just flips? That's what
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: it does, and it actually in this case gets you
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: less money. But there's an argument to be had that
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: we don't need the money depending on how we're stacking
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: in that. So I think that's important to remember as well.
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: Our man goal collect says, Bill is one hundred dollars
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: more than Judkins, So I would think with those price
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: next to one another, Breeze Hall will definitely Movemark possibly,
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: but like I said, there's also people I agree, actually,
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: but there's actually the thing that you have to remember
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: is the morning game versus the afternoon game. And I
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: think it's being mentioned some now, but too, Like obviously
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: there's stuff going on with the Jets game that could
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: make it interesting as well, especially with this ownership being
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: right there. And maybe there'll be more on that later on.
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: We'll see, And then said Taylor, this seems to happen
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: every week, and then he had a bad week last
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: week at his price is still eighty eight hundred. I
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: think this is actually pretty interesting too when we get
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: to it later as well. So haven't even talked about
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: some of these spots here yet.
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: But let's keep it rolling.
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: Let's go to the wide receiver position. You talked about
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: Rice potentially getting up.
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: I think you nailed it.
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: Like even with the you know, higher dollars, smaller field,
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: I think people are still thinking like forty forty to fifty.
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: It's like he could definitely even cross that. People are
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: just plugging him and moving on. So talk about him
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: first and then talk about the other stuff going on.
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: And this guy's remember this all leads to the common
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: build here in a bit, but we're putting it all
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: together first.
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: Yeah, So the Lamb conversation is especially interesting because I
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: think it directly relates to what he just kind of mentioned,
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: that the Jonathan Taylor possibility of ver steaming Moonwackey, whatever
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: you want to call it, where Lamb could absolutely explode
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: in ownership if Deebo is out, because it suddenly makes
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: Lamb incredibly easy to fit within that game stack and
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: you can then pay up for a running back. But
• 20:32
  Speaker 4: what we'd also see a lot more of is people
• 20:34
  Speaker 4: going from the Washington side to the Dallas side playing
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: Dak doubles with Lamb and Pickens. So Pickens would steam,
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: and then you can't really fit in Jonathan Taylor. So
• 20:46
  Speaker 4: one thing that like one thing that I always try
• 20:49
  Speaker 4: to do is build in almost protection from from steam
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: into my lineup, And I think one way you can
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: do that this week is having Pickens and Jonathan Taylor.
• 20:57
  Speaker 4: If you have a way of fitting them both, they're
• 21:02
  Speaker 4: gonna see saw an ownership. So either you're getting Pickens
• 21:05
  Speaker 4: at sub ten percent and Taylor at twenty plus, or
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: you're getting Pickens at fifteen to twenty, but now Taylor
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: has also come down to fifteen or below, So I
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: think that's something to keep in mind there. But yeah,
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: I very much expect Cede Lamb to separate in ownership here,
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: and I think that there is a chance that he
• 21:22
  Speaker 4: gets to forty to fifty something like that if he
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: becomes easy to fit. But that's that's kind of about
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: you know, who do people have to pay down for,
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: especially at the wide receiver position, And at the moment,
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: there isn't anyone super popular. There's in anyone that a
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: lot of people are going to like, I have one
• 21:40
  Speaker 4: that I love down there, and we'll get to but
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: he's certainly not going to be a popular one. But
• 21:44
  Speaker 4: if Debo were to be out and we had Chris
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: Moore and we had McCaffrey, maybe even Jalen Lane, I
• 21:51
  Speaker 4: think I think then we'd absolutely see Lamb all the
• 21:55
  Speaker 4: way up at like fifty percent.
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think there's gonna be something that you
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: said when we get to the combinations as well, of
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: like it's not just Lamb with one of those quarterbacks,
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: which is the most obvious, but it's like also like
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: that Rice makes that work. So it's like Judkins Lamb
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: Rice lineups with one of Jaden or Dak, Like we're
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: already starting to form the common build here, Like it's
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: very easy to get to that, and like we said,
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: it actually only gets easier if that information comes out
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: for Washington and we'll talk about the other side of
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: it too. Is there anything like so Pickens is going
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: to be a conversation may come up even further later.
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: But like you said, fifteen, I could see like even
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: sub twelve, sub ten, And I know I'm being nitpicky,
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: but I'm just saying in general, like I don't think
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: people want to get there, and even if they do,
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: it's I think more common that we'd see it with
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: the double then it would be uh, and it would
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: be because of someone like more like it would be
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: like Dak Lamb Pickens with more or McCaffrey or Ertz
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: or something like that to make it work. So even
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: when Pickens is on lineups, it's going to be so
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: commonly put into those big boy builds as opposed to
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: like the opposite effect of your Judkins props, Like what
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: if what if Pickens just has you know, six for
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: one hundred and ten and one touchdown. It doesn't necessarily
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: mean that game went off. It doesn't necessarily mean DAK
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: was required. Like it could just be a nice Pickens
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: game and it would really hurt Ced Lamb. So give
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: me your thoughts on that real quick, and than anybody
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: else at wide receiver you want to hit on before
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: we move to tight end.
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm struggling to figure out exactly how I think
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: people are gonna use Pickens for context. I haven't currently
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: projected at twelve percent single entries, that is with Deebo
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: Samuel expected in and that is also with me projecting
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: more ownership for DAK than the rest of the industry is.
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: So that's to your point, like, as long as Debo plays,
• 23:44
  Speaker 4: there kind of is a ceiling for Pickens ownership because
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: he is only two hundred dollars less than Ceedee Lamb.
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: What I'm not sure of is are people going to
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: use Pickens as a pivot off of Lamb and saying
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: that's going to be my differentiator within this game. I mean,
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: I hope that Lamb catches, you know, six balls for
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: ninety yards, but Pickens has six for one twenty and
• 24:05
  Speaker 4: a touchdown and do it that way? Are people going
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: to use him as a as a one off in
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: their Mahome stack and say, now I'm fading all of
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: the Dallas and Washington chalk, but I still have a
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: piece that can do well and just kind of ruin
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: the game for everybody else. I don't really know, you know.
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: Or of course, are they going to use Pickens in
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: the double stacks with Ceede Lamb? I definitely think that
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: he's going to be. I definitely think the most popular
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: double stack within DAK lineups will be Lamb and Pickens,
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: even over Lamb and Ferguson, because I think Ferguson's now
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: at a price point where people are going to be
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: really uncomfortable using him with CD Lamb back. Going back
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: to last year, I mean, Ferguson was basically not effective
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: much when Lamb has been in the lineup. So the
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: fact that he's now at an elevated price and Pickens
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: is in town and Lamb is back, I just don't
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: see that happening. So I think it would be Lamb
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: and Pickens most often with Prescott. But there are ways
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: to bill contrarian lineups even if you go that route,
• 25:08
  Speaker 4: and it's not like it's gonna be use a ton
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: because again Pickens is only a twelve percent seging luntries
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: here and has that pretty real cap in his ownership
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: because of the price.
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we're getting to the common Bill, which is the
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: startup segment too, and I know in that we won't
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: just talk the combinations. We will talk more of the
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: game stacks overstat things that you can do differently this week.
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: And that would be like an example you just mentioned
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: there as ways to change it up. We had to
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: talk yesterday just quickly on that one. I'm like, if
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: you went Dak, let's say we get the debo news
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: is out, you could have like Dak Lamb Pickens, no Ferguson,
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: and then use like Luke McCaffrey, who's over Most people
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: that are doing that are putting more in there. You
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: could put Luke McCaffrey and hope that yes, he only
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: gets out there. Maybe some argue he should be out
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: there more, but when he is out there, it's like
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: he's usually speeding up the game or catching a big one.
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: And I made fun of like the Westbrook a Kinney thing.
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: It's like, well, there's no way, Luke McCaffrey. I mean,
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: we just can't get rid of McCaffrey's man. LMC is
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: because I'm in a thing this season, at least early on.
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: We'll see how it goes.
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: I don't think the same as a CMC situation obviously,
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: but just noting it from the Westbrook Akine thing. If
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: NWI was a thing, LMC is certainly turning into the
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: same thing this season. So saying that though the last thing,
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: we'll round out and we'll hit defense quickly. But tight end,
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: I think tight end is shaping the slate and the
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: common build pretty much to everything you just said. It's like,
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: that's why a Ferguson isn't popping up, That's why you're
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: not seeing a Hunter Henry as much this week, a
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: Travis Kelcey as much this week, because you got it
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: like all these guys are capable, and we'll get to
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: some of that stuff after, but just in general, it
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: looks to me like Warren McBride meyer is kind of
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: where people are landing. And then of course Fannin got
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: into the mix with the n djoku news.
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: Is that what you're seeing? What are you seeing anything
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: else there?
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: Yeah, So I've got to let me see here, it's
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: more spread out this week, I will definitely say that
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: off the top, I've got Erge leading the way at
• 26:56
  Speaker 4: seventeen point six percent, then a bit of a tear
• 26:59
  Speaker 4: break before we get to McBride, Warren and Mason Taylor
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: all around twelve percent, and then Fannin and Mey are
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: kind of hanging around ten, then Ferguson at seven and
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: a half, Tuckerkraft Kelsey around six, and then everybody else
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: below four percent. So I do expect Urtz to separate there,
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: and I think he would go to like thirty percent
• 27:18
  Speaker 4: if Debo We're out. He might even go to like
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: forty percent if Debou We're out. So he's then, by
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: the way, is another reason why I think Ferguson's going
• 27:24
  Speaker 4: to be held in check. Yeah, because Ertz is the
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: is the clear option from this game, and people don't
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: want to double tight end, especially with Jake Ferguson.
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: Let me ask you this real quick, because it's all
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: part of tying into the leverage factor and just the
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: thought process of people actually building their single entry lineups.
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: And I think this is extremely interesting.
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: So just a couple of weeks ago, we had it
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: was it was Donald JSN and Cup lineups with Kate
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: Aughton as the runback, and it was like, man like,
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: is Kate Aughton the guy that's gonna unlock the ceiling
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: of that spot? And listen, I get this really goes
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: to like your prop stuff earlier, like the floor of
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: Verus ceiling stuff. Is zach Ertz obviously could catch two
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: touchdowns like it's it is possible for sure, And you
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: could have Jaden Daniels with zach Ertz and Pickens and
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: have a completely different build than everybody else and just say, look,
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: I'm running a three man with Daniels. I'm hoping he
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: rushes one in. I'm hoping he throws a bunch of
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: yards to these other people, but they're not needed. I'm
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: using Ertz for the touchdowns and I'm going Pickens on
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: the other side. Or as a way to get different
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: with whatever you want to do, Javonte and make it
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: really different but still be in the same game.
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: I think that's part of people's late swap stuff as well.
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: But do you think zach Ertz is more of like
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: a safety blanket.
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: Not just for the quarterback himself, but like that type
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: of play, and there's a bunch of these tight ends
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: that just could crush him and hit a ceiling score
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: at a onesie position where you kind of want the
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: best score there that you can get. Or do you
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: think it makes sense to go like Dak, Lamb, Pickens,
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: Ertz and then use that spot for something else and
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: not play again. I'm going to if this then that
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: scenario of like Debo being out for example.
• 28:54
  Speaker 4: Yeah, so I think there's there are two different directions
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: you can look at it. The way you phrased it
• 29:01
  Speaker 4: initially was like, is ERT's the guy who's going to
• 29:04
  Speaker 4: unlock the ceiling for for Dak stacks No, But the
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: other way around. I think it does work. If Dak
• 29:12
  Speaker 4: and Lamb and Pickens are aggressive through the air and
• 29:16
  Speaker 4: they're finding success and they're building a lead and Washington
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: has to play catch up and that pass rate increases,
• 29:23
  Speaker 4: Ertz is gonna get Pepper, right Like we saw Art's
• 29:26
  Speaker 4: catch how many balls in the playoffs last year? I
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: think he caught like eleven that game against Philly, So yeah,
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: eleven sixteen targets. So like, if you get that kind
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: of game script where they are behind and they have
• 29:40
  Speaker 4: to drop back every single time they have to abandon
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: the run, Ertz has a really good ceiling. He just
• 29:45
  Speaker 4: caught six for sixty four in a touchdown. He caught
• 29:48
  Speaker 4: six six for forty three and a touchdown already this season.
• 29:51
  Speaker 4: So I think he's he's kind of exactly as you
• 29:54
  Speaker 4: framed him. Like, he's not someone who's going to have
• 29:56
  Speaker 4: this massive ceiling. He's not gonna have the explosive plays
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: that unlocked things for Dallas. It's bored the other way around,
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: where Dallas could unlock the game script that he needs
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: to access his ceiling, and also like he'd have a
• 30:10
  Speaker 4: really good floor in that kind of script. So I
• 30:12
  Speaker 4: have no issue playing ERDs, but you've got to know
• 30:16
  Speaker 4: that that's not your separat or by any means.
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it feels like that. I mean a lot of
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: people are mentioning it. Our guy Emman.
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: Hollis says, if deebo is out, can this game just
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: fail due to pace example, or eg Daniels and Bill
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: slow the game down. You think that's a possibility as well.
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: We've seen this plenty of times where someone's like, oh,
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: receivers out, we got all the value in the world.
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: Now let's overstack it.
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: But in reality it then changes things and it is
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: just a lot of short passes and runs and things
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: like that amongst them and what they're doing. Obviously the
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: short passes could benefit ERTs. Back to that previous conversation,
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: but what do you think about that?
• 30:47
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I definitely think it's possible. I would also say,
• 30:51
  Speaker 4: like one of the other possibilities here is we're thinking of, hey,
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: Dallas has been this really good offense, and they have,
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: they've been en out ceiling offense, and now they're getting
• 31:01
  Speaker 4: ceedee lamback. It's automatic. They're going to come in here
• 31:03
  Speaker 4: and they're going to throw all over the place and
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: they're going to be hyper efficient. They had all their
• 31:07
  Speaker 4: guys in Week one, right and and dak was held
• 31:11
  Speaker 4: to what one hundred and eighty passing one hundred and
• 31:13
  Speaker 4: eighty eight passing yards against Philly five and a half
• 31:15
  Speaker 4: yards per attempt. It's not automatic. He had two hundred
• 31:18
  Speaker 4: and fifty one in a touchdown with two picks against
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: Chicago's bad defense. Nothing in this league is automatic. Nothing
• 31:25
  Speaker 4: in this league is guaranteed, especially if Washington has the
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: ball a lot in this game, or maybe maybe it's
• 31:31
  Speaker 4: like that the game does have points and it does
• 31:34
  Speaker 4: reach the fifty four and a half total but especially
• 31:37
  Speaker 4: on the Dallas side, things are so spread out between
• 31:40
  Speaker 4: Javante and Pickens and Lamb and Ferguson that none of
• 31:45
  Speaker 4: these guys have games that we need. None of these
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: guys even have games that are quite good. They're all
• 31:50
  Speaker 4: just fine. And then it's it's really easy to fade
• 31:53
  Speaker 4: the game that way, so they're absolutely past to this
• 31:56
  Speaker 4: game failing. I think, you know, the question is if
• 31:59
  Speaker 4: you're if you're fading it, do you have something else
• 32:01
  Speaker 4: that you like that really has a chance to separate
• 32:04
  Speaker 4: or do you feel like you have a better chance
• 32:06
  Speaker 4: of separating some way within the stack through George Pickens
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: or something like that. So I don't even have this
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: fully answer yet. I don't even know what my leverage
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: Wyane's gonna be today, But I think that's the way
• 32:16
  Speaker 4: we want to think through this game.
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree real quick on this one.
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: Just a note this is I know we always break
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: down from the DraftKings perspective, but just for UZI here
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: FanDuel added Rashie Rice late. He is seventy five hundred
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: dollars over there. First of all, he's not a lock,
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: as we just talked about, even on DraftKings. For cash games. Yes,
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: he's a lock. People are just gonna plug him and
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: you do you move on. He will be very high owned,
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: but you can definitely leverage him, hence the name of
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: the show. Or you could play differently or build differently.
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: And I think that's the last thing, and we'll hit
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: on defense and then it already covered a bunch as
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: we jump into the segment two and we have the
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: common build already, but it kind of works out Alex
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: that it fits to Broncos or like the Patriots or
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: something like that for the expensive defenses, and then you
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: can go to like Carolina Panthers. I know people are
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: landing and they're down low. I think one of the
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: interesting things is you're not really seeing Chiefs be popular
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: up top, even though that would be a way that
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: that game could go. And to our guy Tyler Mnhalla
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: who just mentioned this stuff previously, we don't see Dallas
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: or Washington picking up steam either yet.
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: Let they you know, like if Washington's without everything.
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: The Dallas d would be a great way to leverage
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: on this slate if you're just not landing anywhere else
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: and you're fine with it, or you put like Javonte
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: Williams with the Dallas d and it's like, even if
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: Javonte does get some steam, it's doubt people are playing
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: them with his defense. And if you think that just
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: shuts down the Washington side and Dallas can get after them,
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: it's not.
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: Some may people run to like, oh, but they don't
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: have this guy anymore. There are different defense this year.
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: They're where Yeah, I literally don't care about last year
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: and I don't even care about this year. I care
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: about Sunday, October nineteenth, the single slate for week seven,
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: and that's it.
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: That's all I care about. That's all you should care about.
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: So it's all about setting it up and playing the
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: game and not so much focused on the plays and
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: what you think you know, because we all don't know anything.
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: But we do know how to play DFS. That's the key,
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: and that's what we're trying to learn about and talk
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: about here. So common build. Do you want Ustart to
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: put it all together? At least what you're seeing from
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: all that, and then we can go to part two.
• 34:09
  Speaker 4: Yeah, So the first thing I'll say here is if
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: you start with Daniels, Deebo, City Lamb, and zach Ertz,
• 34:15
  Speaker 4: I think that's probably the most common double stack with
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: to bring back from this game. We're going to see
• 34:20
  Speaker 4: more double sex with a bringback from this game than
• 34:22
  Speaker 4: any other on the slate. That leaves fourteen thousand dollars
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: for your three remaining spots, including a defense, so that's
• 34:29
  Speaker 4: really easy to fit. But it's also not that much
• 34:31
  Speaker 4: more expensive to save four hundred dollars on quarterback going
• 34:34
  Speaker 4: to Dak Prescott and then go up from sixty two
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: hundred dollars debo to seventy three hundred dollars pickens. That
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: still leaves thirteen thousand, three hundred for your three remaining spots.
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: I think what we'd see then is plenty of are
• 34:46
  Speaker 4: going to leave Ertz in there, so now it's a
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: double with one bringback. On the Dallas side, I think
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: we would see a lot of Jacory Krosky Merrit in
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: that lineup, which still leaves seventy two hundred for the
• 34:57
  Speaker 4: final two spots. Maybe they then takes RT's out, in
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: which case they could still opt for a you know,
• 35:03
  Speaker 4: a really cheap tight end. Maybe they try to go
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: a little bit more expensive, especially if they feel good
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: about like a mid price Chris Moore so we'll see,
• 35:11
  Speaker 4: we'll see what that looks like. But this is not
• 35:14
  Speaker 4: difficult to fit, and I think that's the that's the
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: thing I mentioned. Oh, by the way, I've already plugged
• 35:19
  Speaker 4: in Rushie Rice and Quinchon Judkins into these lineups. So
• 35:22
  Speaker 4: just which is why I'm talking about the final two.
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: So these are these are really really easy to fit,
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: and you only need to kind of have one guy
• 35:32
  Speaker 4: in the lineup that you feel as a risk. So
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: in this case, like it would probably be a four
• 35:38
  Speaker 4: thousand dollars flex something like that, so you still can
• 35:40
  Speaker 4: use some money on the defense. Maybe it's you know,
• 35:43
  Speaker 4: if you have the three thousand dollars Browns defense paired
• 35:46
  Speaker 4: up with quin John Judkins in the wind and Rain,
• 35:49
  Speaker 4: which I think is going to be a really popular thing.
• 35:51
  Speaker 4: In fact, I definitely need to boost the projected ownership
• 35:53
  Speaker 4: on the Cleveland defense. That would leave you forty two
• 35:56
  Speaker 4: hundred for this final flex. You'd see some double tight end.
• 35:59
  Speaker 4: You'd see some people go even cheaper than that, and
• 36:01
  Speaker 4: then they would upgrade zach Ertz. So I think the
• 36:05
  Speaker 4: thing that I want to hammer home here is like
• 36:07
  Speaker 4: we can't be in the mindset of, oh I'm just
• 36:10
  Speaker 4: gonna flip to Dak and Pickens, and that's going to
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: make me different enough. This is easy to do, and
• 36:15
  Speaker 4: I think a lot of people are going to do it,
• 36:17
  Speaker 4: So we'd have to find something else. Maybe it's you
• 36:20
  Speaker 4: add in a third Dallas guy, you add Cavante Turpin
• 36:23
  Speaker 4: as that like cheap separat or something like that. So
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: I think the common build is Dallas Washington with Judkins
• 36:33
  Speaker 4: with for she Rice. I think you need to find
• 36:37
  Speaker 4: a way to differ from that in some way. You
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: either need to leverage Shudkins, leverage Rice. Maybe you leverage
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: both of those guys and you find something like where
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: you're paying way up for Jonathan Taylor and paying down
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: twice something like that. But if you were just playing
• 36:52
  Speaker 4: Judkins Rice Dallas Washington, you have very very limited opportunity
• 36:58
  Speaker 4: to find a separator because you're already doing with the
• 37:00
  Speaker 4: field distance.
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say that you nailed it, and
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: so let's get to sort of how do we do
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: this and how do we leverage it? But like the
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: Judkins Rice is the ultimate combo, I mean, it just is.
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: It's like you said, it could be sixty forty or
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: sixty fifty for like fifty to fifty called percent each
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: that you see in a single entry, and if you
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: look at the overall, it's like Judkins, I feel very
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: confident in this Judkins, Rice Lamb and one of Jaden.
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: Daniels or Dad. So what does that say in your
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: single entry that even though I'm hashtag, I'm on team
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: hashtag never Mahomes and I don't care. But that's fine.
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: I'm just saying that would be a factor where he
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: just can't be the same ownership everybody's saying because those
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: other two quarterbacks are getting boosted and they get boosted
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: even more. I keep saying the pun there because it's
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: funny because of more, but they get boosted up if
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: Deebo Samuel's out even further. So just a note like
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: that's what we know going in the defense, We've got
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: the flip flop of the two expensive with the one
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: to two at the bottom.
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: It's at the bottom.
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: It's basically the Panthers Bears Browns like it's some Bears
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: and Browns very similar. People feel good about pairing up
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: like Judkins and the Browns, or if they're landing on
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: Carolina because they're not playing on Breas Hall or something
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: like that. Like all that makes sense, and I get it,
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: and there's ways to kind of semi leverage, but you're
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: not really like leveraging a Breas Hall who might moonwalk
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: by playing the chalkiest chief defense in a Carolina DST
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: like that doesn't really it can be said afterwards as
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: a content piece, but it's not really doing that because
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: you're kind of like going into the same storm, just
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: different sides. You're coming in from the east, they're coming
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: in from the west. They all end up in the
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: same storm at the end of the tornado picks them
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: all up. So it is possible that that happens in
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: that analogy. But just to note, let's talk about now
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: that we have the common build and we know what
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: that is. There is some late swap factors to it
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: of those guys in the afternoon, but there's also a
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: ton of really good spots on this slate that you
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: can go And I think you mentioned off the top
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: of the show, and I know some people didn't fully
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: sort of understand it or go that route with me
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: yesterday when I was talking about this. I'm definitely not
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: saying to not correlate at all, like that's only the
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: key I was saying, I think it actually gets better
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: as the pricing gets tighter, which is typically as the
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: season goes on.
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: What happens is in the early weeks when the pricing
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: is so soft.
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: It's just like why we typically say an overstack of
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: a game. Oftentimes, unless it's the only game that goes
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: off on a slate, it can oftentimes be better in
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: single entry where you can make a mistake or two,
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: and by mistake, I mean a fourteen pointer and a
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: twelve pointer, where in the large field stuff someone found
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: the twenty and the nineteen pointer and still crushed you.
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: But I was saying, in like weeks one through six,
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: because the pricing is so soft, and there's still some
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: soft prices out there this week, but because it's so soft,
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: you really can't make as many mistakes, and the correlation
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: doesn't always work as favorable, even though I'm still saying
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: to correlate, it works more when the pricing goes up
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: because you can still have three to four really good
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: bets in your lineup. And then it's like if my stack,
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: which is very contrarian and a full on separator, just
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: comes through, I can kind of plug in what I
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: where I want to round it via secondary stacks and
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: things like that make it all make sense.
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: Give anything else to add on that in the list.
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: I think the way to explain what you're kind of
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: saying mathematically is that when pricing is loose, well, actually,
• 40:13
  Speaker 4: let me start with with tight pricing. The reason why
• 40:15
  Speaker 4: we correlate is to give ourselves a better chance of
• 40:19
  Speaker 4: being right about every single spot in our lineup. The
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: chance that you're right about every single spot in your
• 40:24
  Speaker 4: lineup increases fairly dramatically when pricing is loose, and it's
• 40:29
  Speaker 4: easy to fit like all of the best plays and
• 40:31
  Speaker 4: just say I like this guy, like that guy, like
• 40:33
  Speaker 4: that guy. Oh look, I can fit them all. It's
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: a lot harder to be right about every spot of
• 40:37
  Speaker 4: your lineup when you say, oh, I like this guy,
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: like this guy. I like this guy, But now I
• 40:41
  Speaker 4: don't know what to do because I can't fit any
• 40:43
  Speaker 4: of the good players. Okay, let me correlate those spots instead.
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: So that, I think is why once we get to
• 40:49
  Speaker 4: this part of the season where pricing is tighter. It's
• 40:52
  Speaker 4: not that we ever didn't want to correlate, it's that
• 40:55
  Speaker 4: the advantage to correlating now is even stronger.
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: Than it was.
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: Then we're more were likely to really separate from the
• 41:03
  Speaker 4: uncorrelated lineups when our correlation pays off it this time
• 41:06
  Speaker 4: of year.
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: Yes, nailed it, and thank you for that.
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: And also just to add on, it's also that because
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: the pricing gets tighter, people have a harder time figuring
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: it out and what that stack's going to be.
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: And they also have usually just a note. I don't
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: I want to put it the.
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: Wrong way, but it's again, join what we're doing. We've
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: got FtM, we've got ship at nation. You go use
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: coache Ship nineteen like. It's not just to tell you
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: to join, to join, I'm saying, but what happens is
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: if people are losing the first six weeks.
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: Like me, by the way, so it happens to all
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: of us.
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: I'm losing right now, Alex up after week one alone
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: and covers off this whole year and beyond. But the
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: point is if you're losing, what a lot of people
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: do is they change gears. You and I had a
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: really good conversation on mindset over I give us mastermind
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: yesterday and what people end up doing in week seven,
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: eight nine, As it gets harder they go safer, and
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: that's a huge issue because your whole strategy like mine,
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: and that's why it typically end up paying off usually
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: for me, is because I'm not changing it.
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: I know it can work.
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: I actually think last week was a revelation on how
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: I might be able to find and unlock some stuff
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: sooner in the season because I am still comfortable with
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: the contrarian stacks. I just don't need to overstack as
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: much or limit my possibilities.
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: That's my review work. That's what I'm seeing when I
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: go back and look at everything that I do right now.
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: Though, what ends up happening is as it gets tighter
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: and someone said, well, that stack seems insane, It's like,
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: maybe it is, but it's like I have everything else
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: seems amazing, and that stack has a reason behind it,
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: so too insane actually converts to low owned and big
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: time separator. And now it's like when people see it
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: on the review show on Monday, the Takedown breakdown here
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: on the Ship in Nation YouTube station, they.
• 42:45
  Speaker 3: Say, wow, it seems like that lineup was so easy.
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: They just got that random stack right, It's yes, they
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: got all the good bets and then played a stack
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: that ended up hitting, So I think it's definitely a
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: good opportunity just to think about it from that perspective, Alex,
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: but talk about some of these other places we can
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: go in single jury that might not be too crazy,
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: And we got to go with the bit for a second.
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: I mean, you were dead right on Mahomes that week.
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: He literally ended up being on the Millie Maker, which
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: is a whole nother conversation because people might not get
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: this one either too or like follow it as much.
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: But the optimal often has a naked quarterback, so it's
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: not that you can't build for that. It really it's
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: like every the math that Alex just gave on everything else,
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: But it's kind of like your math on the two
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: tight end stuff on last week's show, which these shows
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: are almost turning into evergreen episodes now because you can
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: get these information pieces. But it was like, it's not
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: that they're not hitting or couldn't have hit, it's nobody's
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: playing them. And so obviously we know like optimizers are
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: literally set up to almost stack automatically or the simulations
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: make that the right way to go. They do hit
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: in the optimal, but like the same week Mahomes hit
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: it could have been a staffer. So all I was
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: trying to say is it's not like he's needed and
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: that was kind of the piece there, But that could
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: be something to be said for Rashie Rice this week.
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: I'll kick it to you, but talk to.
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: Us about Mahomes and then other sort of game stacks
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: and things like you could see us going to here
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: for single entry.
• 44:08
  Speaker 4: Yeah, so what one of our focuses has been like
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: explaining why the chalk is the chalk? And in this case,
• 44:16
  Speaker 4: I don't think the Mahomes ownership is so much about Mahomes.
• 44:19
  Speaker 4: It's more about like, oh, I'm going to play or
• 44:22
  Speaker 4: she Rice. He's an easy one to just pair with Mahomes.
• 44:27
  Speaker 4: And now because Mahomes is difficult to predict, like if
• 44:30
  Speaker 4: he brings Rice along with him, who else is he
• 44:32
  Speaker 4: bringing worthy? I don't know. Hollywood Brown had two touchdowns
• 44:36
  Speaker 4: last week, and Travis Kelsey has been really involved, but
• 44:39
  Speaker 4: also Taekwon Thornton might be on the field getting the
• 44:42
  Speaker 4: bomb and Juju Smith Schuster. They really like his blocking,
• 44:45
  Speaker 4: so there's a good chance he's still getting a number
• 44:47
  Speaker 4: of slot snaps things like that. So they're just saying, Okay,
• 44:50
  Speaker 4: I'll just play Mahomes with for She Rice, and that's
• 44:53
  Speaker 4: gonna be easy. I think most of the Mahomes lineups
• 44:56
  Speaker 4: are going to be poorly correlated, so I'm almost like
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: not even I don't care that much to leverage the
• 45:05
  Speaker 4: Mahomes lineups because I don't think those lineups are gonna
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: be very strong. I think the it's gonna be it's
• 45:09
  Speaker 4: gonna be harder to beat the Dak lineups. It's gonna
• 45:11
  Speaker 4: be harder to beat the Jade and Daniels lineups than
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: the Mahomes lineups. I don't view Mahomes lines very differently
• 45:17
  Speaker 4: than I just view like the Rashi Rice singles, because
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: I again, I don't think they're gonna be that correlated.
• 45:22
  Speaker 4: If I were to play Mahomes, I would, by the way,
• 45:26
  Speaker 4: stack the heck out of it. I'd use Trey Tucker
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: as a bring back or ashing gent, and I would
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: use Kelsey and Rice minimum. Maybe I'd also throw in Worthy.
• 45:35
  Speaker 4: Maybe I'd also throw in Taekwon and just take a
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: chance that he gets one deep ball. Also realize there's
• 45:40
  Speaker 4: a chance he plays like three to five snaps and
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: that's it. So I would I would go for the
• 45:45
  Speaker 4: correlation with Mahomes, even though it's obviously easier to not.
• 45:49
  Speaker 4: I think it's the only way to do it well.
• 45:51
  Speaker 4: But none of the Mahomes stuff that I that I
• 45:53
  Speaker 4: checked simmed even remotely well. So, like I said, I'm
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: not too concerned with like figuring out how to leverage that.
• 46:00
  Speaker 4: But I do think he's going to be used. I
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: don't have him projected for as much ownership as I
• 46:06
  Speaker 4: have Dak. Let me remind myself, Yeah, I've got him
• 46:08
  Speaker 4: at thirteen point six percent, saying Lentry's reminder, Dak was
• 46:11
  Speaker 4: at fifteen point one. So it's like it's it's gonna happen.
• 46:17
  Speaker 4: People are gonna use it. But I'm not anywhere near
• 46:20
  Speaker 4: as focused on, Okay, how do I handle Kansas City
• 46:23
  Speaker 4: stuff as I am how do I handle Dallas? Because
• 46:26
  Speaker 4: I think we have to get Dallas Washington right to
• 46:29
  Speaker 4: win this late. Whether that means being right about the
• 46:32
  Speaker 4: fade and just using Krossky Merrit or just using Javonte Williams,
• 46:36
  Speaker 4: or fully embracing in the game and stacking it in
• 46:39
  Speaker 4: a better way than other people. I think we have
• 46:40
  Speaker 4: to be right about the Dallas game. I don't think
• 46:42
  Speaker 4: we have to be right about the Kansas City game.
• 46:44
  Speaker 4: I think more likely than not. That's just not a
• 46:48
  Speaker 4: you know, a tipping point to the slate.
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: So two things on it quick, because I'm not playing it.
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: So if this wins and people can just have it,
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: it's not gonna be certainly not gonna be my leverage lane. Ever,
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: I don't really care. It's elane. I literally never go in,
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: so I don't care, and it's been very offitable to
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: not go in this lane. But I think if you
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: play it, it's very simple and you're not even really
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: leveraging Mahomes. It's the fact that if he does moon
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: walk backwards from what people already think, because there's enough
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: people that listen to people like me say never Mahomes,
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: so they just say, like, at the end of the
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: day that Washington Dallas game is too good to be true,
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: We're getting even more value and it I just got
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: to land there or I can't risk the morning. I
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: gotta wait for the afternoon. I can make moves because
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: I got Jordan Love, I got all this other stuff
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: which we'll get to. The answer is quite simple. It
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: is Rice is popular. Meyer is popular. It was in
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: a bunch of lineups like Mayo myself and Squirrel did yesterday.
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: It's just a natural first, common secondary stack that to
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: Alex's point always and I'm trying back it up. He's
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: the math guy here, but I'll just say it, like,
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: what does it really correlate between those two? Their price
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: is good, like it's a nice combo pack, sure, but
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: is it really not baked in? It is?
• 47:49
  Speaker 3: It's baked in.
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: So the easy swap is Kelsey at tight end opposite
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: of Mayor, and it's playing Jacoby Myers instead of Mayor.
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: It's he's one hundred bucks less than Rashie Rice. You
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: can go mahomes Kelsey. You have to play a onesie
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: position anyway, Myers. That's how you play it, and that
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: could win someone all the money this week. And I'm
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: not like covering my bases. I'm never playing it. I
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: told you this, but it's just I don't see it
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: as a whole. I'm just saying it seems clear on
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: how you could add Rice into it too if you want,
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: as a different way to do it, even with Rice.
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: But I would be doing what Alex said, if you
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: were playing it, I'd be overstacking it and not just
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: looking for what everybody else is doing, especially in single edge.
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: Were like, well, as long as I have Mahomes and Rice,
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: I know Rice is undervalued, so I'll get that and
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: I'll take all the extra Mahome stuff. And by the way,
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: the guy's not gonna run for thirty to sixty on
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: the ground and a touchdown every week. And I guarantee
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: you we've seen plenty of these Raiders games divisional opponent
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: where they try and take us head off on those runs,
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: so he might just see a bit of a different
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: scenario here this week. And then lastly, I would say
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: the other thing I think that the way I'll love
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: this this week is the Chiefs defense. I think it's
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: I think they've been great, and I think it's very
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: interesting that there's two expensive defenses just below them that
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: are super popular. And I'm fine with just going to
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs defense and hoping that that starts up some
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: stuff for them as well.
• 49:06
  Speaker 4: You just gave me an idea I might I might
• 49:09
  Speaker 4: need to hit an under on Mahomes rushing yards because
• 49:12
  Speaker 4: I think there's a very clear pattern of he runs
• 49:15
  Speaker 4: when they need him to run, and that's based on opponent,
• 49:18
  Speaker 4: and it's based on who do they actually have running
• 49:20
  Speaker 4: routes and how are they getting open? Can he find
• 49:22
  Speaker 4: someone to throw to? I think neither of those boxes
• 49:25
  Speaker 4: are checked in this one. I don't expect him to
• 49:27
  Speaker 4: scramble a lot. I think he's gonna be able to
• 49:29
  Speaker 4: throw the ball wherever he wants. And I think they're
• 49:31
  Speaker 4: gonna be up big. And you know we've seen for
• 49:33
  Speaker 4: years like typically Mahomes prefers to save the scrambling until
• 49:38
  Speaker 4: the postseason. He hasn't this year because they really needed
• 49:41
  Speaker 4: him to scramble early on. He at fifty seven and
• 49:43
  Speaker 4: sixty six reshaurants in the first two games, but then
• 49:46
  Speaker 4: five for two, four for five against the Giants and
• 49:49
  Speaker 4: then the convincing wins the Ravens, and then he ran
• 49:52
  Speaker 4: again against Jacksonville in a loss, and he ran again
• 49:54
  Speaker 4: ten for thirty two against Detroit, a massive game. But
• 50:00
  Speaker 4: now like they're back in a situation where okay, schedule wise,
• 50:03
  Speaker 4: division wise, they're in a good place. This should be
• 50:05
  Speaker 4: an easy game and they're now at full strength weapons.
• 50:08
  Speaker 4: Why so the under twenty two and a half rushing
• 50:10
  Speaker 4: yards I think is probably really strong for Mahomes this week.
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that call, And that's freebie from Alex.
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: I know you got that stuff all covered in your
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: discord and everything that you do. So we'll talk more
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: and be able to be able to showcase that here
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: at the end, But just a note, what are some
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: of the other spots for you? Then if we talk
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: about is there any other combinations? And then is there
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: anything else when it comes to game stacks with now
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: how we can play it with what we know? That's
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: sort of the segment we always talk about with that
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: is there other stuff we can run with?
• 50:36
  Speaker 4: Here? There are two games really cheap stack opportunities that
• 50:42
  Speaker 4: really drew my attention and interest kind of early in
• 50:44
  Speaker 4: the week. I've faded on them a little bit. One
• 50:46
  Speaker 4: was Denver, one was New Orleans. In both cases I
• 50:49
  Speaker 4: like the fact that they're cheap stacks with quarterbacks who
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: are very willing to throw the ball down field, but
• 50:55
  Speaker 4: they're not simming well in large part because the payoup
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: options are not goodicularly a wide receiver like I think
• 51:03
  Speaker 4: the number one thing we want to avoid this week
• 51:05
  Speaker 4: is if we're not stacking the Washington Dallas game in
• 51:09
  Speaker 4: some way, if we're not using Daniels or Dak. The
• 51:10
  Speaker 4: last thing we want to do is use receivers from
• 51:12
  Speaker 4: that game. We can mini stack it by playing like
• 51:16
  Speaker 4: Crosskey Merritt and Javonte Williams or something like that. But predominantly,
• 51:20
  Speaker 4: if we're playing that game, then we want to play
• 51:22
  Speaker 4: it in such a way that explains why the passing
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: games will underwhelm. So doing something like a you know,
• 51:29
  Speaker 4: a bo Nick stack with Ceedee Lamb and Deebo Samuel,
• 51:34
  Speaker 4: I think is like the stone worst way to play
• 51:37
  Speaker 4: this slate. So if you're not paying up at wide
• 51:41
  Speaker 4: receiver like those are the best pay up options you
• 51:44
  Speaker 4: could go to. Justin Jefferson, I think he's finding and
• 51:46
  Speaker 4: also I think there are potential game stacks for Philly
• 51:50
  Speaker 4: Minnesota that are worth looking into that I haven't totally
• 51:52
  Speaker 4: looked into as much as I probably should just yet.
• 51:54
  Speaker 4: But the other game that I am interested in is
• 51:59
  Speaker 4: the Chargers and the Cooles. I went to a Charger
• 52:02
  Speaker 4: stack last week. I think it was a mistake. One
• 52:04
  Speaker 4: of the reasons I thought it was a mistake was
• 52:06
  Speaker 4: because I played into the Keenan Allen ownership when I
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: knew that he was going to be chalking, nobody else did.
• 52:11
  Speaker 4: But the second reason I think it was a mistake
• 52:12
  Speaker 4: was because I did like the one of the cardinal
• 52:16
  Speaker 4: sins of DFS that I've talked about for years now,
• 52:19
  Speaker 4: which is a quarterback becomes more popular when his chance
• 52:23
  Speaker 4: of breaking the slate decreases because he loses a key
• 52:26
  Speaker 4: receiver of his That's what happened with Herbert last week.
• 52:29
  Speaker 4: Herbert was going to be contrarian because people didn't like
• 52:32
  Speaker 4: having to choose between lad Keenan Quinton Johnston. All of
• 52:36
  Speaker 4: a sudden, it was an easy choice of how to
• 52:38
  Speaker 4: double Herbert, and people flocked to Herbert. But Herbert's chances
• 52:42
  Speaker 4: of breaking the slate went down. Now he's back in
• 52:44
  Speaker 4: a good spot. He's in a matchup where he probably
• 52:46
  Speaker 4: needs to throw the ball a lot. Indianapolis has been
• 52:49
  Speaker 4: thrown on. Jacoby Brissett, of all guys, just had a
• 52:51
  Speaker 4: really good game to the air against them. So I
• 52:53
  Speaker 4: think Herbert has a very good chance of breaking this slate.
• 52:56
  Speaker 4: I like Jonathan Taylor as a bringback. I love Michael
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: Pittman as a bringback. Also go to Tyler Warren. So
• 53:02
  Speaker 4: I really like this game, and I think that ownership
• 53:05
  Speaker 4: is going to be in check because it's hard to
• 53:07
  Speaker 4: figure out how to stack him. So a couple of
• 53:10
  Speaker 4: ideas here. Number one is you can just pick two
• 53:13
  Speaker 4: and hope you're right. You could also play three entry
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: this week and do three Herbert stacks. One is Mconkie
• 53:22
  Speaker 4: and Keenan, one is Mconkie and QJ, One is QJ
• 53:25
  Speaker 4: and Keenan, and you're bound to be right in one
• 53:28
  Speaker 4: of the three if if the Herbert stack really does
• 53:31
  Speaker 4: go off. So that is something I'm really toying with
• 53:33
  Speaker 4: as well.
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: Interesting you brought that up, because that's something I know
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: a lot of people aren't comfortable with, you know, and
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: it gets asked a ton right in the shiper Nation discord.
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: I'm sure you're asked a ton over at Masterminds. Like
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: all the people talk about it is like different ways
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: and how would you handle that?
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: I think we even had it, like I go all
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: the way back to the top.
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: T Trizzle said, after you run your optimizer, what determines
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: what lineups you're going to enter for three max and
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: single lineup contests? And then if you're asking of this,
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: so T Trizzle, I don't know if you're over at
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: the mastermind or not, but we literally just covered this.
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: The nads and eye video goes through this as well,
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: and then there's a ton of stuff on single entry
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: and three max.
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: But to answer the question to what you.
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: Just said is, sometimes your single entry is super comfortable,
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: and sometimes it's like, man, I could run just two
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: quick variations off this and it wouldn't kill me. And
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: you almost treat your three macs like a single entry
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: and you just run those variations. So it's like you'll
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: all be if they all cash, it's all min cash
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: is if they all do well, they're all up at
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: the top. If they all miss, you are treating it
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: like a single entry that misses anyway. So again I
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: don't think many people think about that, and it shows
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: all about different ways to play.
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: Even with contest selection. I think there's ways you can
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: go about it when you're doing that.
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Essentially, what you want to do is when you're
• 54:42
  Speaker 4: selecting your three and your three lineups for three entry,
• 54:47
  Speaker 4: you want to make sure that those limps are playing
• 54:49
  Speaker 4: off with one another in some way. And so one
• 54:51
  Speaker 4: option that you can do is you can try to
• 54:53
  Speaker 4: make them like really diverse and where if one fails,
• 54:56
  Speaker 4: the other is more likely to succeed, and if that
• 54:58
  Speaker 4: one fails, the others more likely succeed in PGA. I've
• 55:02
  Speaker 4: done this a lot, where like one of my lineups
• 55:05
  Speaker 4: is this is my favorite lineup. My second lineup is
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: a full AMPM stack, and then the last lineup is
• 55:10
  Speaker 4: a full PMAM stack. So I'm getting nice inverse correlation
• 55:13
  Speaker 4: between them, but I also am still just playing the
• 55:15
  Speaker 4: guys that I really like. But the other thing that
• 55:18
  Speaker 4: you can do is do what I kind of just
• 55:20
  Speaker 4: mentioned with with the chargers. It's like you're really treating
• 55:22
  Speaker 4: it as one lineup, but you're making the hardest decision
• 55:28
  Speaker 4: cover all your bases. So I don't know how to
• 55:31
  Speaker 4: choose between lad QJ and Keenan. So I'm gonna cover
• 55:34
  Speaker 4: all of my bases there, And because they're all like
• 55:37
  Speaker 4: very similar in price, the rest of the lineup is
• 55:39
  Speaker 4: probably gonna look really similar. I can diversify the rest
• 55:42
  Speaker 4: of the lineup just for the sake of diversification if
• 55:44
  Speaker 4: i'd like, or I can say no, this is the
• 55:47
  Speaker 4: strongest lineup. I'm gonna treat this as a single entry
• 55:50
  Speaker 4: and just have three versions of the single entry where
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: it doesn't matter to me which one hits and which
• 55:55
  Speaker 4: one doesn't.
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think there's gonna be more, you know,
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: to come with the sleigh as we see it play
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: out again out to wait on more of the news
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: as well. Is there anything else actually though in the
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: afternoon that you wanted to talk about as it pertains
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: to the late swap stuff with like the Cowboys Commanders,
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: like the you know, we talked about the Herbert stuff.
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: What about the Packers Cardinals game?
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: Somebody said it here and I think you already hit
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: on this and it's a bit of a spoiler alert,
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: but that's okay. But like I think Brissett last week
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: was was a bigger product of what we saw with
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: the Colts. Probably then we you know, are for Brisett
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: now this week. I know some people are still setting
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: that up. If you got a late swap and things
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: like that, maybe it could make sense. But the Packer's
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: side is it's tricky to get right. But with you know,
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: the Jacobs mentioned earlier, you know, Tucker Craft disappointed a
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: ton of people last week. Golden Off the By did
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: show up and get some action, and Dobbs is there
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: and we're waiting on Wick's news. Is what's your most
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: likely spot to swap to if you have stuff bust
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: up in.
• 56:54
  Speaker 3: The morning that doesn't go your way, and now you're
• 56:56
  Speaker 3: you're on.
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: Washington Dallas or are you most likely just to flip
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: around how you hand your Washington Dallas.
• 57:02
  Speaker 4: Yeah, this is a This is a hard one to
• 57:04
  Speaker 4: kind of talk through because I ideally what we have
• 57:07
  Speaker 4: when we're talking about late swamp is clear differentiating like
• 57:12
  Speaker 4: opportunities for separation early and then a clear pivot late.
• 57:18
  Speaker 4: We very much have the clear pivots late. We've got
• 57:21
  Speaker 4: the NDI La C game, We've got Green Bay Arizona,
• 57:23
  Speaker 4: We've got Washington Dallas and also the Giants game. The
• 57:27
  Speaker 4: problem is, I also want these games for a lot
• 57:31
  Speaker 4: of my separators. Like one of my separators is in
• 57:34
  Speaker 4: the Denver game. We're gonna we're gonna talk about him soon.
• 57:37
  Speaker 4: So I don't know that I'm gonna have enough information
• 57:42
  Speaker 4: by the time we get to these late games to
• 57:43
  Speaker 4: make inform to late swamp decisions. If I were to
• 57:47
  Speaker 4: try that, like I, you obviously you need you need
• 57:49
  Speaker 4: differentiation early. So one of the ways to do that
• 57:52
  Speaker 4: is play a Chan instead of Queen John Judkins. If
• 57:55
  Speaker 4: you play a Chan and he goes off in Queen
• 57:57
  Speaker 4: chon Judkins sales, you have a massive green light to
• 58:02
  Speaker 4: play Washington Dallas, however you'd like. You also are gonna
• 58:07
  Speaker 4: know the Rashie Rice stuff early on. So I think
• 58:11
  Speaker 4: if you're sending up Blake Swap, the number one thing
• 58:13
  Speaker 4: to keep in mind is you can't just play Judkins
• 58:16
  Speaker 4: and Rashie Rice and nothing else you know contrarian early on,
• 58:21
  Speaker 4: because you're not gonna have nearly enough information by the
• 58:24
  Speaker 4: time you get to those late games to make your decision.
• 58:26
  Speaker 4: So you've got to find a separator earlier, and that
• 58:29
  Speaker 4: separator should be someone you play, but also someone that
• 58:33
  Speaker 4: you don't play, either in Judkins or Roushi Rice. If
• 58:36
  Speaker 4: you want to approach it slight that way. You can
• 58:38
  Speaker 4: also just approach the slate where you know what, I
• 58:40
  Speaker 4: like my separators in the four o'clock games. I am
• 58:43
  Speaker 4: gonna play the chalk early and I'm just not gonna
• 58:45
  Speaker 4: use late swap much on this given slip.
• 58:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we're gonna get to our leverage lane here shortly.
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: A couple of notes, almost two hundred people watching live.
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: We appreciate you. Just make sure you get that thumbs
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: up when you're in here. Only sixty four likes so far,
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: so again it helps us as we try and grow
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: the show. Last week over four thousand views, over four
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: hundred likes by the time we hit the playback.
• 59:04
  Speaker 3: But that's what pushes it in the algorithm.
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: The more it is like that's the more I feel comfortable,
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: like I said last week and going into like I
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: got two more spots I'd like to talk about. But
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: when you see less engagement, everybody's in the chat. If
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: you can type, you can hit the like. That's one
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: of my other sayings. Always if you can type, just
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: press the thumbs up. It takes two seconds. I love
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: this point you made about like, first of all, gamescript independent.
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: You didn't fully say that, but that you mentioned it earlier.
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: But to your point, if you get that go off
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: early for you, and that really busts up and changes
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: up everything, you can kind of do whatever you want
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: for sure. I love this comment. We literally had this
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: conversation yesterday on the Mastermind interview. You said, you know,
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: reading psychology books and like how it sort of relay
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: obviously you read them for your golf career as well,
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: and then bringing it over to DFS.
• 59:46
  Speaker 3: This is the key, Jenna. You've brought up the unlock here.
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: Every other show is just going to tell you the
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: picks and the plays and all this other stuff, and
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: it's what it's all about. You know, in the end,
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: you need the right picks and the right plays, but
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: they're a product of the process, and that's the whole point.
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: When you have a proven process or some of the
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: people have used to work to their advantage, that's why
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: everybody here is trying to learn and get better. I
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: don't know if you have anything you want to add
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: on that, Alex, but I think it's.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 3: Key for sure.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 4: No, you pretty much said. I mean, we talked a
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 4: lot yesterday on the Mastermind Show about just how kind
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 4: of fascinated I am in psychology, but also just like
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 4: what a large role psychology plays in dfs, both in
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 4: terms of predicting what your opponents are going to do,
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 4: but also like how we react to, you know, sweats
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 4: not going our way or sweats going our way, and
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 4: how we react to getting into you know, larger contest
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 4: when we win a ticket and making sure that we
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 4: still play a really sound process and not a more
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 4: risk averse process because oh, I'm at a stake that
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 4: I've never been at before. So yeah, psychology is a massive,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 4: massive part of DFS, and it's it's really cool that
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 4: you know, we're doing a show that's finally talking about
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 4: it in the way that you and I have talked
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 4: about and thought about DFS for a while. But I
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 4: think a lot of people this is this new up
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 4: to and that's really cool.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you guys can check it out. Like I just
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 3: showed it. We did it ended up, you know, talk
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 3: about going forever. Me and him like to talk, both
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: of us.
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: By the show usually goes more than an hour, and
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: it's great because it's all good stuff, great engagement in
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: the chat.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 3: We love talk with you guys. But it was an
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 3: hour and forty five.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: I was like, oh, it'd only be like an hour typically,
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: and it was pretty incredible. Those that watched it already,
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: a lot of them said that they had a good
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: time taking it in.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 4: We also, by the way, talked about why my DraftKings
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 4: Caeser name is Jim Blickl when that is not me,
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 4: that is my dad. So if you want that story
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 4: you can find it there.
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: We also talked about how Alex doesn't make his bed
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: in the morning, so it literally had.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: A lot of different practices on it.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: Alex is a non bedmaker when it comes to the morning.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: But I always said, get in a ship a nation,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: use code ship nineteen.
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: You get in for nineteen bucks for five days.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: We have free education courses that you can go and take.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: We have tutorials across all sports on how to use things.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: But if you want to know how I use these
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: things and how I play in my process and how
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: I think and other people around the industry that I
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: talked to, you could take a free tour and go
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: check it out.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 3: You can go to the site and see it.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: It's a complete add on, but it's an add on
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: for a reason Nate said it earlier. Like the Stone Slash,
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: Saber Sam plus the Alex and everything, all that stuff
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: typically worth the price of admission. So thoughts on this one, Alex,
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: if your pay up for probability, like you're going up
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: to someone like Pickens is a prime example, and he
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: has him in there, do you think it's better to
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: like try and leverage Rice with Worthy and get that
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: spot right if it's even a spot, because Worthy could
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: get spread out on too. Or do you think it's
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: to go to Pickens versus Lamb and maybe that'll be
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: something that we've got coming up more here in a bit.
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 4: So don't. I don't did this very often where I
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 4: just like go all in on a take that I
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 4: saw with my eyes. But Xavier Worthy looked really slow
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 4: to me against Detroit, and I think that he's not
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 4: going to be much of a factor, or at least
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 4: he's not going to have the kind of ceiling game
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 4: where he's going to be that impactful. So I have
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 4: no issue fading Rice. I think if you're trying to
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 4: fait him within the game, Travis Kelsey is the guy
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 4: to do it. In MMB, you could even take shots
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 4: on Pacheco and hope he breaks a long run or two.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 4: He actually, I think has looked a little bit better recently,
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 4: but it beat Kelsey for me, not worthy that i'd
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 4: pivot off of. But I also think it's fine to
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 4: just either fade or use Rice as a one off a.
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 3: Lot of people.
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: There's other guys there too, Hollywood Brown, Juju, check O, Hunt, Gray,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: Kelsey like that. That's the thing why people say, again,
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: back to your media thing earlier. He's got like a
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: over under a five and a half catches. He could
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: have six for sixty and that's it. And yeah, Cash
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: games you're playing. I get it, but we're talking about
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: single entry. It's not a single entry cash game we're
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: talking about, so there is different stuff. A lot of
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: people are saying that you could see forty percent ownership
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: just to get six for seventy by It's very possible
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: he would beat his props. He would be the reason
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: you're playing him for that, but he doesn't get the
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: touchdowns or a touchdown at all or anything like that.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: So not saying he's a bad play, explaining the difference
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: between what we know why he is chock, what that
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: means props, and what could end up happening, and how
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: it could end up playing out for you and where
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: you could get different and make your lineups a little
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: bit more unique. So love that yet to RJ three
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: twenty one says from DraftKings, we had some battles against
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: each other. Definitely liked the show and a different thinking
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: to get different approach. We appreciate you man, thank you
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: for tuning in and for everybody, there's always really good
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: feedback in here on this. Darren says, I was liking
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: the mahomes overstack, but after hearing Alex talk about the Chargers,
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: I think I like that more.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 3: Let's pause there for two seconds. We'll get there.
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: Easier targetry, a better game, runbacks, lower ownership, definitely possible.
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: The last spot I wanted to hitt and I'm not
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: sure what you were saving, Like you said, you don't
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: know your your leverage lane yet, but what were what
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: were you thinking on this?
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 3: Philly?
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: You're a Philly guy. We got to get this out
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: there right, Philly Minnesota spot because Wentz, Jefferson, Hawkinson, whatever
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: you want to do there. There's Hurts, there's Barkley, there's
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: aj Brown, there's Goddard. Like you've had some thoughts on
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: these things, So what are you doing there? And what's
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: your thoughts on that one?
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 4: So my initial thought was that I was probably gonna
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 4: stack in Minnesota if Quinnon Mitchell was out. It looks
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 4: like Queyon Mitchell is gonna play. It looks like, you
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 4: Knowen Card's gonna play, Zac Baughon's gonna play. So the
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 4: lone kind of weakness for Philly defensively is the second cornerback.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 4: It looks like it's gonna be Dori Jackson this week,
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 4: kind of re winning the job from kiey Ringo, which
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 4: was more just Ringo losing the job after he got
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 4: an opportunity. Consequently, the Eagles have been really bad against
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 4: wide receiver twos, and they're a tough matchup across the
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 4: board for everyone else. Running back to the kind of neutral,
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 4: maybe it's slightly positive, so Jordan Addison I think is
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 4: a fine play, but I also think Minnesota does a
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 4: better job of moving guys around the formation. It's gonna
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 4: be harder for Quion to just shadow Justin Jefferson, So
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 4: I think Jefferson or Addison could have a good game.
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 4: I don't think it's going to be both, So I
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 4: like that side a little bit, but not a ton.
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 4: On the Philadelphia side of things, Minnesota plays the most
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 4: too high in the league and the most zone in
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 4: the league. Philly has really struggled against both, particularly his
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 4: own coverage, so I am not in at all on
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 4: the Philadelphia passing game this week. I think the only
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 4: guy who could have a really good game is Dallas Goddard.
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 4: Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe they have actually like made some
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 4: adjustments in the last week and they have a much
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 4: better approach, and they give Hurts more answers to his own.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 4: Because the thing is like they haven't struggled against joone
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 4: because against zone, because Jalen Hurts has been bad against zone.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 4: They've struggled because they're running man routes in his own
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 4: coverages and there's nowhere for Hurts to throw the ball
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 4: when teams zone up. Kevin Patulo, the offensive coordinator, has
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 4: just been really bad in a lot of ways, and
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 4: route concepts is the number one way that I think
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 4: he's struggled, along with predictability of formation, so on and
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 4: so forth. I don't want to get into too much
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 4: of a rant on Philly because I could talk about
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 4: them for hours and hours. They are my team. But
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 4: the one advantage I will say for the Philly offense
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 4: this week, the ground game has really struggled except with
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 4: outside zones. They're under three and half yards per carry
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 4: in every single run concept except for outside zones, where
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 4: Saque is at four point four this year, the Minnesota
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 4: defense is under four yards per carry in every single
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 4: run concept this year except for outside zones, where they're
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 4: allowing five point nine yards per carry. So there is
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 4: a very real chance that Saquon gets back on track
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 4: this week. I've got Saque in a longest rush ladder
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 4: starting at over sixteen and a half. So I like
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 4: Saque as a conjurion play. I think he's got a
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 4: lot of upside, But I don't think I'm gonna play
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 4: into this game and a stack under.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 3: Four, all right, so it's not your leverage lane and
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 3: we're gonna get there.
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: So anything else we missed before we get to the finale, No,
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: I think I have to go first because I'm worried
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: you're gonna take mine, and I feel like you'll be
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: better actually know what, I have a backup, So I'll
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: let you go first, as that you know, I want
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: to make sure my my guy's always taken care of you.
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: You go first, you said you weren't fully certain on it,
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: and even if you land in my spot, I've got
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: another one, so it's fine.
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 3: And what do you got? What is your leverage lane?
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 4: I'm not taking years. There's a zero percent chance you've
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 4: got mine. I am leaving open the possibility to playing
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 4: into the Dallas stuff. Someone asked earlier, like do I
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 4: like Pickens or Lamb. I think it's overwhelmingly likely that
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 4: I'm either using both in a DAK lineup or I'm
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 4: not using either, and I'm hoping that game fails in
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 4: some way, So I'm leaving open the possibility to use
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 4: the Dak double or the Herbert doubles that I really like.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 4: So my leverage lane is going to be Marvin Mims
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 4: at thirty five hundred dollars. I think there's a very
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 4: good chance that a lot of lineups this week are
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 4: forced into a paydown option, whether they're using double tight
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 4: end with punts down there, whether they're using Chris Moore
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 4: or Luke McCaffrey. And I think a lot of these
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 4: guys are fine. They've got a good chance of giving
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 4: you six, but they have very little chance of giving
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 4: you twenty. And Marvin Mims can give you twenty. He
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 4: went over one hundred yards twice last year. He's got
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 4: sixty a couple times. Maybe it was only once already
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 4: this year. But the guys sports touchdowns and he has
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 4: big plays. The other thing is he's really predictable from
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 4: a matchup sensitivity point of view. He does well when
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 4: the opponent plays a lot of single high and when
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 4: they play a lot of man coverage. The Giants play
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 4: a ton of both. The other thing here is wide
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 4: receiver twos against the Giants are averaging over eleven points
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 4: more than their average so far this season. Wide receiver
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 4: two against the Giants has been the single best fantasy
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 4: matchup in all of football this year. So I think
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 4: Mims is going to get an opportunity. I think he's
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 4: got a great chance to make a big player two,
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 4: even if he doesn't make the big play. The other thing,
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 4: I really like he's got a rushing touchdown this year.
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 4: He's involved around the goal line because they know, hey,
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 4: we've got this matchup advantage. And the final thing here,
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 4: the Giants love to blitz. One of the best ways
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 4: that the Broncos counter the blitz is with those quick
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 4: swing screen type passes to Mims blockers out in front
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 4: of him. I think we have a really good chance
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 4: of finding tour twenty five draftings points from a thirty
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 4: five hundred dollars one percent owned Marvin Mims, And that
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 4: to me is really exciting because he fits any kind
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 4: of pay it bill. You want to go Dak doubles
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 4: with Jonathan Taylor, you can do it with Marvin Mims.
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 4: You want to go Herbert doubles with the Jonathan Taylor
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 4: bring back and a Devon a Chan contrary and play
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 4: something like that, you can do it with Marvin Mims.
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 4: So he unlocks a ton and he unlocks basically any
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 4: kind of lineup that I am still thinking about. So
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 4: Marvin Mims leveragewin.
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: Now, what about if people say Troy Franklin is the
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: number two.
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 4: They are they're kind of both the number two. Where
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 4: Franklin is the number two on most plays, but if
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 4: Marvin Mims is on the field, Marvin Mims is the
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 4: number two. The way we define number two wide receivers
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 4: is kind of it's a you know, we we really
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 4: try to take a football centric approach where we're not
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 4: just arbitrarily assigning wide receiver one or wide receiver two
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 4: to guys or wide receiver three, so on and so forth.
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 4: To guys, it's what are they? What are they on
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 4: the field? And we define that as how does the
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 4: defense game plan for this guy? How do they defend
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 4: this guy? So, for example, like we call Davante Adams
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 4: the wide receiver one, Poka the wide receiver two on
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 4: the rams. Why because Davante Adams gets the wide receiver
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 4: one shadow treatment from Quinnon Mitchell, from you know, JC Horn,
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 4: whoever they're playing. So when Mims is on the field,
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 4: he's the wide receiver two, both in terms of how
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 4: Denver uses him and how teams cover him. Something is
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 4: clearly the wide receiver one. This is sexual a really
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 4: interesting conversation because it also applies to my love for
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 4: the Chargers, by the way, But why it's so difficult
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 4: to choose Because the Colts have been one of the
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 4: toughest matchups six point four fewer fantasy points per game
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 4: to wide receiver ones, and one of the best plus
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 4: six point four and plus seven point one for wide
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 4: receiver twos and other wide receivers. So figuring out who
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 4: the wide receiver one is for the Charges, which is
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 4: the single most difficult one to nail in the entire NFL.
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 4: We think it's Lad with QJ number two Keenan number three,
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 4: But you could put any of them in any of
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 4: those roles, probably except for keenanness the wide receiver one,
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 4: and have a good case for it. The last thing
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 4: I'll say on that question, the Giants are also bad
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 4: against wide receiver threes other wide receivers, so it doesn't
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 4: even matter if you really think that Troy Franklin is
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 4: the wide receiver two and Mims is the wide receiver. Three,
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 4: It's still a good spot for Mims, And more important
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 4: to me is the fact that Mims is the guy
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 4: that beats single high and man coverages. Franklin is the
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 4: guy who beats zone and two high. So I don't
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 4: think this is a Franklin spot. It's to me, it's
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 4: more of a spot than it is Franklin. But it's
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 4: Mims more than anyone else.
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, if I was stacking it up, I like the
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: Nick's Sutton Mims. But I will say one of the
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: most interesting things I think from this game, there's two
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: things actually, and they're just a side note that I'll
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: give mine.
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 3: One is the Broncos D.
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: You want to slice and dice might be our guy
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: title Town's double dip season.
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 3: You get Marvin Mims with the Broncos.
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 2: D, And that's a way to cut into that ownership
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: because no one's really playing Marvin Mims. And what if
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: you get like the kick return of the punt return
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: on top of some of the other factors, there really
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: is opportunity there. Based on his other stuff that you
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: can see him get, He's actually got a ceiling opportunity
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: as well. You could see that happen at just thirty
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: five hundred. The spot leaves it open for the afternoon. Also,
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: by the way, if you are going the bo Nicks
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: stack like b Nick Sutton Mims or something, Lil Jordan
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: Humphrey revenge game on the other side, and he was
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 2: he was used quite a bit actually with with Dart
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 2: so has been used quite a bit, i should say,
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: and out there quite a bit as well since the
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: neighbors stuff.
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 3: So it's just interesting if you want to go for that.
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 3: But it's not narrative street, It's it's leverage lane.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: But I think obviously there's a lot of leverage in
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: going to cutting into the Broncos d or actually stacking
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 2: that game up because just nobody's landing on that game
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: at all.
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 3: And I again lay like it as well.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 4: Real quick there. The bringback that I would use is
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 4: THEO Johnson. THEO Johnson had a very good game against
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 4: New Orleans to touch down six receptions on seven targets,
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 4: and then was really bad, kind of non existent against Philly.
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 4: But Philly has been the hardest matchup for tight ends
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 4: for the second consecutive year now, so I'm going to
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 4: give them a total pass on I'm gonna give THEO
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 4: a total pass on not being more productive against Philly
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 4: and Denver has They've been good against sad ends, but
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 4: they've also shown a little bit of a weakness to
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 4: the middle of the field, which is where a lot
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 4: of THEO Johnson stuff has happened. So I don't mind
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 4: the THEO bringing back at all. That said, it hasn't
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 4: It hasn't seemed well for me again because all of
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 4: those savings don't do enough for me, where like I can,
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 4: I can get enough savings just from using MIMS as
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 4: a one off, I don't need to go to the
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 4: entire game stack. So yeah, that's why.
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to go everything too is actually Slayton
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: is doubtful for week seven, so it's it's actually part
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 2: of that as well. It just could add to it
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: even further. But yeah, like you said, it's not necessarily needed.
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: It's just where you're landing. If this is a spot
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: that makes sense to you and this is your lane,
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: then I got no problem if you want to build
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: it out that way, because you will definitely get two
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: different lineup construction when you go with this. And this
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: could be the first time we see this something, you know,
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: sort of this example that I brought up of if
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: you get all the other pieces where it's like, holy shit,
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: they had all these top running backs, they had everything
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: else in their lineup.
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 3: That were good plays on paper made sense. They just
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 3: needed Nix ma'am's Humphrey to come through. And again, that's
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 3: it's a lot to ask for.
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 2: It probably won't sim well to Alex's point when people
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: ask like how much is too choky? We talked about
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: this yesterday on our interview of like when people say,
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: what's the answer was given to how much is too
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: chalky or how much is too contrarian? You have a
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: process for that, and we went through it on that
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: episode yesterday. So I love that the chat brought this up.
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: You were trying to spoil it the whole way. I
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: will not be paying you envious, but I'm definitely going
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: Easy's joking, but I will. I will be going to
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: the Chargers spot here. I will bring it up again.
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: I think the Briset thing was a lot more of
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: a product of the Colts thing than it was the
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: Brisset thing. So for me, Herbert and Jonathan Taylor and
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: then I'm gonna leave it at that. Because I like,
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 2: I like all those guys. I think the other really
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 2: interesting part, while you could play them both Alan Quinton Johnston, Lad,
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: all of those guys do leverage, or I guess to
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: say leverage are pivots off of Rice in that area.
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: You could still play Rice, but say at least you'll
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 2: land somewhere different and still have that spot available for
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: the afternoon if you do want to make moves like
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: you're not too far away if we get the Deebo
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: news late and he's in, unless people have the room
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: for that. Now it's like now you could get the debo.
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: So there's a lot of different things you can do
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: with this stack. I will keep that in mind when
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: I'm building them, to have some that are a bit
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: more unique in the morning, so that I also have
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: the opportunity to just stay put if I want, but
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: I could go.
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 3: To Washington Dallas.
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: The other thing I'll say is Quentin Johnston is the
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 2: one that I if I was picking one right now
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: that I do like you brought up the wide receiver
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: two thing, I would still have him as that. But
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 2: even aside limited on Wednesday, full practice starting Thursday. It's
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: not like this is some major It's not like the
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: other scenarios that we've seen where guys are coming back
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: from a tough spot. So I think you could see
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: him just work right back in. I know they're down
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: left tackle still, but I just think the product of
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: just a totally different spot here, I think we could
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: see the Chargers do some damage.
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 3: So Herbert Jonathan Taylor.
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: Putting those two together, I think Herbert, we could also
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: see I mean, sorry, Taylor also moon walk back a
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: little as these other running backs pick up steam with
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 2: the Dallas Washington game, with Brees Hall, with Judkins, with
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: Swift if he plays and people aren't on Caleb Williams
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: didn't talk a lot about that Chicago spot, but just
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: all those mentions make it so we still see a
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: guy like Jonathan Taylor being kept in check. And he
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 2: actually went up in price after last week, I think.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: But yet now the cars nobody wants him. He didn't
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: do anything for them last week, so how could you
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: go back to him this week? We've seen it plenty
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: of times, so I'm going to be in on that.
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: Any thoughts on that, any final thoughts from you before
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: we got out of here.
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 4: Yeah, one other thing I'll add here you mentioned the
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 4: fact that you thought the the Brissette stuff was more
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 4: about the Indie defense. I also think the Kamani the
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 4: Dolls was a lot more about the Miami defense than
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 4: anything else. I don't think the Chargers are going to
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 4: be able to run the ball effectively with this backfield, so,
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 4: especially in this game environment against an Indianapolis offense that
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 4: has really been firing on all cylinders this year, there's
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 4: a chance that we could get a fifty drop back
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 4: kind of game from Herbert, and man when he does that,
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 4: he can support two of these guys for ceiling performances easily,
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 4: and even think that you could build a lineup that
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 4: was Herbert, lad QJ and Keenan. The only thing there is,
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 4: like I'd probably also then want was she Rice in
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 4: the flex because I think it's unlikely that all three
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 4: of them beat Rashi Rice, so just play them all together.
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 4: But I think that's like a really viable way to
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 4: go here as well. And you just say Herbert's going nuclear.
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 4: And the other point there is you don't need all
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 4: three of them to have ceiling performances, especially like in
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 4: small field stuff. If one of them has a ceiling performance,
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 4: one of them pretty good, and the other is fine,
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 4: that's probably good enough if Herbert is smashing and you
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 4: bring back your smashing and you've got some good pieces
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 4: elsewhere in the lineup. So I think this is probably
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 4: my route as well. I love the fact that it's
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 4: your leverage lane. I'm probably leaning Herbert stacks over the
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 4: Dak doubles, but I still want to leave that open
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 4: because it's I think both work, and because I feel
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 4: so strongly about MIMS. I do feel like, hey, I
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 4: have that separator to help that Dallas lineup go. And
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 4: the only thing I will say there is, like MIMS
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 4: is also the four o'clock game. So it's not like
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 4: I'm getting that information early enough to use that to
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 4: help me make the Washington Dallas decision.
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you said something here. You use all your wide
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: receiver slots. Don't temp me with a good time from
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: the same game. That's something always I've talked about for
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: years I've been open to. I think it's really interesting
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: when people you know just can't decide, But especially in
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: the single entry, which is again, if you're playing the
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: twelve dollars single entry, yes, you got to make a
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 2: bit of a decision. That's where you could see somebody
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: find a spot, but you have spots to open then,
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: because this is an afternoon game, there's a ton of
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 2: options that could slot in there. I will also say
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: that this is interesting for the fact that Vidal, who
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: we didn't talk a ton about, but if Haskins is
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: ruled out, he popped up questionable yesterday. If he ends
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: up getting ruled out, I think we would see the
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: Vidal ownership go up more. And then, like your large
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: field stuff for those I know, we spend time mostly
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: on one to twenty max, but if you're playing like
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 2: portfolio stuff, you know one fifty, I think, yes, you
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: could get some Herbert with Vidal and as a way
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: to get different there. But I think leveraging that could
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: end up being a thing if we get that news
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: as well. So hopefully that is helpful from that perspective.
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: Was there something else I want? There was a couple
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 2: other things I wanted to say.
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 3: What was it here?
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: Somebody said it in the chat all this one, Yeah,
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: like this is funny. I think it was like Baseball
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: DFS on x he always posts like, you know, trolling
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: and stuff, and he said he came out last week.
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: We had like two million views, probably gonna get a
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 2: nice little payment from all x creator account. But he'd said,
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 2: my sorry, guys, I was late with my plays, but
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: I got them bout now, and he posted the optimal
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 2: lineup after the slight was over. The thing is UZI
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: this is like the you do find out the plays
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 2: on Sunday nights. That's when you find out what the
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 2: plays are. We're gonna have our takes, We're gonna have
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: our thought process, but at the end of the day
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: we are looking at scenario. So we are sort of
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: looking at scenarios but promoting process right, So it's like
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 2: we're saying the process to get there, you'll find your lane.
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 3: It'll work out for some one week, not the other. This,
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 3: that and the other.
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 2: We all play the same game, and why we should
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: root each other on when we don't have a chance.
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 3: And others do.
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 2: If Alex is crushing it, I can't win this week.
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 2: I want to see Alex do well because he put
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: his hard work in and made this happen. But everyone's
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: promoting plays and at the end of.
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 3: The day, they're.
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 2: Gonna be right on some wrong on some the internets
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 2: of wild plays, you can clip only the ones you're
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: right on. You can delete the ones you were wrong on.
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: It's like it's insane. From that perspective, all we want
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 2: to do is promote process education. Both Alex and I
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: ship a nation ftn his own personal stuff, et cetera.
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: We all do a ton when it comes to that.
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: That's really what this is all about, is all about,
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: and we appreciate this. You know, people that do love
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: coming here to see it. If you enjoy it, smash
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: the like, make sure you're involved that way. What was
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 2: the other thing, Alex? There was one more that I
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 2: wanted to find here. Who is in this spot? Oh
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 2: oh yeah, yeah, yeah, I wanted to bring this up,
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: so as funny as it is that I just sort
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: of made that a thing. Do you think there's any
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 2: scenario here where the Patriots just put.
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 3: It on the Titans for the rable revenge. That's narrative street.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: But we've got to the end of leverage lane now,
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: by the way, so we can we can take a
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 2: quick curb. That was something somebody brought up about the
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 2: Lions going remember when Dan Campbell a couple of different
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 2: spots obviously, you know, like back the revenge game spot
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: with against Ben Johnson quote unquote and running it up,
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 2: but also then the fact that the Ravens pumped them
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 2: before and then he goes back and they pumped the
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 2: Ravens back.
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 3: Do you see anything like that?
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: Obviously the team still has to execute on it, but
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: could you see a spot here where the Drake may Patriots.
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 3: Stuff just try and run it up the whole game.
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 4: I do think it's possible. I'd rather play that just
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 4: by using the Patriots defense. Yeah, I'm not really interested
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 4: in any of the Patriots guys, Like I think to
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 4: your point about like, look, well we'll know what the
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 4: optimal lineup is on and I think there's a decent
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 4: chance that any of these Patriots are in the optimal
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 4: But I think the hard part is they're probably getting
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 4: there from touchdowns and not overall production and from a
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 4: great game environment. So like Stevenson can have two three touchdowns,
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 4: he could also be really inefficient, score zero touchdowns and
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 4: totally kill you like he did last week. It's also
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 4: only a matter of time for him, especially like he
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 4: needs to be efficient because he's got the fumbling ones.
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 4: So if he's not efficient and they don't trust him
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 4: to not turn the ball over, he's not gonna play,
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 4: so it's weird. I also think like Steph Diggs is
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 4: their best receiver by far, but he doesn't really play
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 4: when they're out ahead and in a lot of you know,
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 4: run first situations. So do you go with him or
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 4: you go with Booty or you go Hunter? Henry to
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 4: Mario Douglas is now getting deep shots as well, even
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 4: though he's like a career slot guy. It's it's way
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 4: too hard, I think to predict New England stuff for me,
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 4: I'm not going there at all.
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you can try and run it back. I know
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: Booty had a huge week last week. I think the
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 2: interesting call is probably the Henry spot. But like you said,
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 2: playing the defense might just be the way to get
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 2: it done there. All right, let the people know everything
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: about that you've got going on this week, Alex, where
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: they can find you anything else you're working on, and
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 2: then we'll get out of here the US.
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 4: You'll find me at Alex book a one on Twitter.
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 4: All the links for FTND stuff. Use promo code blick
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 4: for ten percent off there. And if you want to
• 1:24:42
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• 1:24:44
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• 1:24:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, If you guys want to go to ship nation
• 1:24:47
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• 1:24:49
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• 1:24:53
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• 1:24:55
  Speaker 2: That's what I've been looking off this whole way. You'll
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: get the report cards there, the stack rankings.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 3: I've been on fire.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: If you guys have any other questions, shoot me a DM,
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 2: add me on x at, TOTEG and Tamba.
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 3: See what we can do to take care of you.
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 3: For Alex for myself to tag and tambo led shipping