Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 141 - 10/15/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 141 - 10/15/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 141 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
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Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena,
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guys, as the early portion of our week rolls on and we got a
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lot to get to on today's podcast.
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I have a three pack of sweats I'm excited to share with you
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and we're going to hit on pretty much every sport tonight.
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I got to play for Yankees Guardians game two in the Major
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League Baseball postseason. Also college football, believe
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it or not, there are three college football games tonight.
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I could have pushed a play on every single one, but I try to
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pick my spots. Found my favorite one and
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wouldn't you know what, we're going to look at a match up
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where these two teams are combined.
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One in 10 on the year. But I think there could be a
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value play here based on a spread situation.
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Also, the NHL going to get right back to the ice because there is
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a really good rest. First tired system match with a
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line move on one particular team tonight, and then after a three
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pack for tonight, we're going to look at another 3 pack of games
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upcoming this weekend in college football. 3 early matchups with
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some good early movement and I'm thinking we may want to grab
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some numbers right now before they fall too much.
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So hopefully we can pick off a couple good numbers.
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So that's what we're going to do today.
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Major League Baseball, college football, NHL, and a look toward
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college football Week 8. Now looking back toward last
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night, 2 and 3 -. 1.4 units. Monday football is terrible.
1:46
Everything else is pretty decent.
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So let's start with what was pretty decent.
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We got our first win in the early NHL hockey season.
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Great win there by the Pittsburgh Penguins.
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Remember that was that Fishy Rd. favorite off a loss versus
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opponent off a win. Scored a bunch of goals in the
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third period. Penguins iced that one six to
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three. So it's good to see a hockey
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winner. And then we also got the Yankees
2:07
under under 7 1/2, got a little dicey.
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Luckily Weaver came in and shut the door under 7 1/2 and landed
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on A5 to two games. So you're able to rob the bank
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and get out of there without being caught with the hook.
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But then of course, a just frustrating, I would say Monday
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Night Football matchup. Jets SOJ, same old Jets.
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Really the annoying thing with The Jets is that we got plus 1
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1/2 and they closed at 1:00. So we beat the closing line 1
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1/2 when it closes 1. Yet they lose the game anyway by
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three. They had multiple missed kicks.
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They had a ton of penalties. Jets are going to Jet.
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What can you do about it? And again, that was just kind of
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the the last kick in the you know what in the week that was
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all about favorites, chalk, popular bets coming through.
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The obvious play was Josh Allen, you know, Buffalo short number
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public got the last laugh as they capped off a big week.
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So it was I was reading about it was actually the worst week in a
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many a moon for the sports books.
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And I don't know one's going to shed a tear for the books
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because in the end they always win.
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I would just goes to show you that typically you don't really
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see that happen. So every now and again, public
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11 epic weekend. They had it this weekend.
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Sadly, when the public does well, contrarian betters like us
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don't do well. But remember, we're always
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playing that long game. You know, every dog has its day.
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So the public got the last laugh.
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The other one was the under under 41 1/2.
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I knew we were in a little bit of trouble there because some
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books rose up to 42 little prior to to kick off.
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So late movement went up a bit. But if you look at a teachable
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moment, one thing that was notable and I think when you're
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betting on sports is that even if you lose a bet, you know, try
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to learn something from it. So what I, you know, wanted to
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mention from last night is that there was a really good live
3:42
line opportunity to take a live line under because at half time
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I knew our under was sunk. You know, it was a 20 to 17
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game. They scored 37 points in the
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first half. Total was 41 1/2.
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That's what I got. So I'm like OK, definitely going
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to lose this one. But basically the scoring
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completely died down in the second-half.
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They only scored what, 6 points? So whole point being is when
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that was 1/2 time total of 37, you could have gotten a really
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good live line. I think it was in the mid to mid
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to high 50s to buy low and go under.
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There's a college football system.
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Maybe you guys might remember they used to talk about it's
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like the the 10 point rule. So if you have basically a
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really high scoring first half and that adjusted live line is
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10 points higher than the game line, you buy low.
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Take the under whole thought processes.
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Hey, you might have a lot of scoring early or a low amount of
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scoring early, but in the end, odds makers are pretty good at
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what they do. So that final total is going to
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fall somewhere close, relatively close to that, you know, final
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closing line. And that's what happened here.
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Even though the under 41 1/2 lost, it landed on 43.
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So again, when you see a ton of scoring early, maybe a lot, you
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take a live line under in terms of of a value play there.
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So just something to keep an eye on moving forward.
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And then Breece Hall, you know, he just he ran like crazy at
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like a 50 yard run to kill our under 58 1/2.
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And that was actually one of the most most heavily bet public
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props, the Breece Hall over rushing.
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So we'll give a golf clap to the public.
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They made us cry. But hey, usually the public
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loses. So I guess we can be a little
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happy for them. But only this one week.
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No, no more public week. So let's let's cross our fingers
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for that. Anyway, let's turn the page
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toward today. See if we can get a new winning
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streak started here for today. And I want to start off with
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Major League Baseball, so I'm looking at Cleveland, NY.
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Obviously it's the only game tonight, but a couple
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interesting things happening with this game here.
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So I want to start off with kind of setting the table.
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Obviously we had the Yankees win last night, five to two, good
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for us. Is that able to get that under 7
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1/2 with the hook? And now Game 2 tonight in the
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Bronx, you have the Guardians sending out Tanner Beebe.
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He's O&O with a 2 point O 8 ERA this postseason.
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He had a good regular season 12 and eight, 3.47 ERA.
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He'll be opposed by Garrett Cole, who's one and O with an
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ERA of three this postseason. And he was hurt, came back a
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little bit late, but he did end up eight and five with a 3.41
6:00
ERA. So a couple good pitchers here
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on the bump. Now we have seen this line move
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a little bit back toward the Guardians.
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Like if you tell me you like the Guardians as a situational
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place, similar toward the Mets yesterday, it's kind of eerily
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similar where you had the Dodgers win game one, which
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would be the Yankee spot at home, the favorite.
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And then Game 2, the dog getting plus money on the road came
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through like the the Mets did yesterday.
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So do have cold people that I respect that like the Cleveland
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Guardians today. And I totally get it.
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You know, they're very contrary and they're only getting 27% of
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bats. You did see some shops move a
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little bit toward Cleveland. I saw some books as high as
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Cleveland at one point, like plus 150.
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Now they're down to around plus 140.
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So again, you tell me like Cleveland, I'm not going to
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argue with you, but I'm going to look right back to the to the
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total here. And this is an ain't broke,
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don't fix it play under 7. That's my play here for tonight.
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So mention that they have a couple good pictures on the
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bump. But let's now dive into the data
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here, the sports betting data. Because if you look at #1 the
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fact that this total open at 7:00, it never opened 7 1/2.
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That was kind of notable to me. You know, a lot of times you'll
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see an opener of seven and a half, 8 1/2.
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Maybe it falls to seven or falls to 8.
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Often times you don't see a lot of totals open seven.
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Like that's a low number, an opener of seven and the public
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says, hey, I know it landed 7 last night, but still public
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will not quit Soto and Judge and Stan in this high-powered
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lineup. They got to easily, you know,
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maybe by themselves they score eight runs.
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So the public is going over. They see a low total of 7.
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They're going over right now. You're getting 66% of bets going
7:33
over. But look at what that what's
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happening with the juice on this one.
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The total open at 7:00 and some shops actually open seven juiced
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over. Like I saw a 7 / -, 110 -, 115.
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Now you're flipped 7 under -115 or -120.
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So you're seeing a kind of reverse line move flip, almost a
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dog to fave flip in terms of juicing up the over.
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Now juicing up the under. And you got to take a step back
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and say why are they juicing up the under?
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Making us pay a more expensive price when it's a low total to
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begin with and the public's playing the over.
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So kind of reading between the lines, that tells me we got some
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liability on the under here. Now the under is only getting
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34% of bets, but nearly 50% of dollars.
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So good low bets, higher dollars bet split.
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Also, if you look at when the total is 7 exactly 7 can't be 7
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1/2, can't be 6 1/2, it's got to be 7 totals that close at 7 in
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the postseason since 2022, a couple multi year sample size.
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Now the under is 10 and 663%, so kind of the thought is, hey,
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it's set low for a reason because two good pitchers, maybe
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we get a three to two game, A2, nothing game, a four to one
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game, something like that. Obviously that's what I'm hoping
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for. But then a lot of the factors we
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looked at last night still apply for tonight.
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We still have two really good bullpens.
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Cleveland #1 Bullpen. I was getting annoyed last night
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because they brought in this guy Santillo or Santillo.
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He was a lefty and he just kept throwing wild pitches.
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And by the way, Bo Naylor, the the kid, maybe he had a bad day.
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I haven't seen a lot of boat bow nailer games, but he let in, I
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don't know, 6-7 pass balls. So maybe you put in Austin
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Hedges. But no, no more, no more, you
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know, wild pitch pass balls. That was if you're an under
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better like me last night. That was like so frustrating.
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So hopefully we can't get, we don't give up free bases here,
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but Cleveland's bullpen number one regular season, 2.51 ERA,
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Yankees number six, 3.62 ERA. You also get the Yankees.
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They're now four and one to the under this postseason.
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And Cleveland finished the regular season 56% to the under.
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That was the 6th best and Major League Baseball.
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So you add it all up here, guys, we got public playing a low
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total over yet the juices toward the under good low bets, higher
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dollars bet split, couple good pitchers on the bump, good
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historical angle, good bullpens. I'm going under 7 now.
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I want to get more into the thought process or more into
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when I give you a total and just give you like a generic, oh,
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under -115 I want to kind of tell you guys what book it's
10:00
coming from because I think that's important to know, OK,
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what book is offering the best number?
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But then also kind of instilling the thought process of, hey,
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have those multiple outs shop for the best line.
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So with that being said, I found under seven at -110 at Fanatics.
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So that's a book available to me in Massachusetts, but a lot of
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these other books, DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, Bet MGM,
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they're under 7 -, 115 or even -120.
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So I'm going to play that under 7 at Fanatics.
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Let's get a low scoring game under seven at -110.
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Now over to the College Football Gridiron 3 pack here tonight.
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I got to give props to the scheduling committee.
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They're all spaced out a bit, 7:38 and 9:00.
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I'm going to go to that sandwich game, that middle game, Kennesaw
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State and Middle Tennessee State.
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Now, this game is probably not the game that you're looking at.
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And I will admit there were some liens for me on the other games,
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but this one caught my eye, Kennesaw State, Middle Tennessee
11:00
State, and it caught my eye because number one, this is the
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least heavily bet game of the day, but it's also the grossest
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game. So the public doesn't want one.
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Don't doesn't want much to do with this one.
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And I get it. Both teams are terrible.
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Kennesaw State is O and five. Middle Tennessee State is one
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and five. If you remember, I watched
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Middle Tennessee State because I played them last week against LA
11:23
Tech. They lost 48 to 21.
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So both these teams are really bad.
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So automatically when you have really bad teams, a lot of times
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the public will say, you know, give me basically the better or
11:33
the lesser of two evils or I don't want to play the game at
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all. There maybe there's some other
11:37
games that they're more interested in.
11:38
But I noticed an advantage play here.
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Hopefully, knock on wood toward Kennesaw State.
11:44
These teams are so bad, I think we get a tighter game than the
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odds makers are expecting. Now, if you look at where this
11:49
line is open and how it's moved, Middle Tennessee State at home.
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By the way, this is an 8:00 game on CBS Sports Network.
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We open Middle Tennessee State as high as a 10 point home
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favorite. And even though it's the, you
12:01
know, least heavily bet game of the night, still these are all
12:04
pretty relatively heavily bet. Just in general, you are getting
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currently 74% of bets going on Middle Tennessee State.
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So Middle Tennessee State's one and five, they're at home.
12:14
Kennesaw, O and five on the road.
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Public just says, hey, let's just go with the favorite.
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However, despite getting 74% of bets on MTSU, this line's fallen
12:23
back toward Kennesaw. Kennesaw went from plus 10 to
12:27
plus 9 1/2. A lot of books are down to 9.
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I even see one book down to 8 1/2.
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So it's notable to me that you have majority, heavy majority on
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MTSU, yet MTSU isn't up to -11 -, 12.
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It's going the other way toward Kennesaw State.
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So right off the bat tells me we got a reverse line move on
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Kennesaw State. They're only getting 26% of
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spread bets, yet we've seen the line move in their favor.
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They're also a Conference USA dog.
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So two teams, same conference that built in familiarity,
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leveling the playing field, benefiting the team, getting
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points. Also a good correlative betting,
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kind of a relatively big dog. High total total, this one open
13:02
51 1/2. Looks like some under money came
13:05
in. It's all the way down to 49 1/2.
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So the total is falling and the lines moving toward the dog.
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That's a good thing. Like if you think Coral to
13:12
betting wise, fewer points scored, lower total, harder for
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the favorite to cover more, maybe more competitive.
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It's if it's lower scoring, like if you see a total that rises
13:22
and the line moves toward the favorite, that's a good sign for
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the favorite total falls in line goes to the dog, good sign for
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the dog. So it'd be correlative betting
13:29
dog low total. Then I dug into the offensive
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defensive categories here and couple things caught my eye.
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Both teams are relatively equal offensively.
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Now they're both not very good, but you have Kennesaw averaging
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14.6 points per game. Middle Tennessee State is
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averaging 16.8 points per game. So about two more points a game
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offensively for MTSU. But MTSU has the worst defense
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now. They're giving up 40.5 points
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per game. Kennesaw is giving up 36 points
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per game. So look at it one of two ways. 1
14:01
is that, you know, slightly better offense, Middle
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Tennessee, slightly better defense, Kennesaw.
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But I look at it like this offensively, the relatively
14:09
equal MTSU has been getting shredded.
14:11
Defensively, maybe Kennesaw performs a little bit better
14:14
going up against a bad defense with MTSU.
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And then to add the cherry on top, we have a really good rest.
14:19
First tired system match here in favor of Kennesaw State.
14:23
Kennesaw State last played on October 4th.
14:27
If you remember that was a Friday night and I remember
14:30
because I took the points and or did they?
14:31
No, sorry, I was talking thing MTSU but with Kennesaw State,
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they played on the 4th, which was not last Friday, but the
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Friday before you look at MTSU, they last played on the 10th,
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which was that game. I took the points and they got
14:47
rolled against LA Tech. So that was back on last
14:50
Thursday. So basically you have pretty
14:53
much, you know, Kennesaw coming off a buy versus you have MTSU
14:59
playing their first home game after two straight Rd. games.
15:02
So basically you have Kennesaw State having 11 days between
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their last game in this game versus short rest MTSU only
15:09
having five days between their last game in this game.
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So I'll be a rest first tired in favor of Kennesaw State.
15:15
So you add it all up here guys. We got the public on MTSU yet
15:19
the Lions going to Kennesaw State Conference USA dog,
15:23
correlative betting dog, low total, very contrarian,
15:25
relatively equal offenses, bad defense, MTSU and a big rest.
15:29
First tired advantage. Now once again, let's try to
15:32
find the best number. Most books right now are at
15:35
Kennesaw State +9. There is one book that's down to
15:39
8 1/2 or actually 2. FanDuel and ESPN Bet Caesars is
15:42
at 9:00. But guys, I found a nine and a
15:45
half out there, so if you can find it, grab it.
15:47
Right now, both Bet MGM and Fanatics are offering Kennesaw
15:51
State Plus 9 1/2, so jump on it if you can.
15:54
If not, you should be able to find the 9, but I'm going to
15:57
take that 9 1/2. Pick your poison.
15:59
Bet MGM or Fanatics. Let's let's keep it close, Let's
16:02
lose by 9 or lesser. For those who can only get the
16:05
9, let's lose by 8 or less. Who knows, maybe, maybe Kennesaw
16:08
wins out, right? But keep it close.
16:10
I'm taking the points, Fanatics or Bet MGM plus 9 1/2 with
16:14
Kennesaw State. Now over to the NHL.
16:17
Had our first NHL winner of the early season last night, which
16:20
was great seeing Pittsburgh come through.
16:23
Found a game tonight that caught my eye, New Jersey Devils and
16:26
the Carolina Hurricanes. Now going into this one, we have
16:30
the Carolina Hurricanes O and one and actually their schedule
16:34
is kind of weird. They played their first game
16:36
back on the 11th of October and they haven't played since and
16:40
that's because Hurricane Milton down South they're supposed to
16:43
play a game against I think it was Tampa Bay.
16:46
They lost 4 to one in Tampa Bay, but they haven't played since
16:49
versus the Devils, who have played five games, the most in
16:52
the NHL. Devils actually played last
16:54
night. That's a big part of my
16:55
handicap. So I'm going to go Carolina.
16:57
Hurricanes, guys, Hurricanes have a good line move.
17:00
The open is low as -135 -, 145. Now they're all the way up to
17:05
-160 I see one book -165 S just like last night with that big
17:10
steam toward the Pens, big steam here in favor of Carolina.
17:14
Also, you look at the goal tenders.
17:17
Hopefully it's an advantage for Carolina.
17:18
They're going to play Kochhov or Kochhov who went to 2.3, three
17:24
goals against, 9/11 save percentage last year.
17:27
Jacob Markstrom, who the Devils just picked up in the offseason,
17:30
he had a 2.78 goals against with a nine O 5 save percentage last
17:34
year. So Kochekov had the better
17:36
stats. Hopefully that's an advantage
17:38
here tonight and goal. But then also big rest first
17:42
tired. Carolina, as I mentioned, hasn't
17:44
played since the 11th and they're coming off a loss.
17:47
So that would be favored off a loss system match versus the
17:50
Devils dog off a win Devils played last night.
17:54
They won three nothing against Utah.
17:55
Yes, Utah has a hockey team. The coyotes moved to Utah so
17:59
that would match as a rest first.
18:01
Tired Devils are on the second leg of a back-to-back.
18:03
Devils are also playing their third game in four days versus a
18:07
very well rested Carolina team was only played one game.
18:10
They didn't have to travel. Their opener was at home.
18:12
They lost 4 to one to the to the Tampa Bay Lightning.
18:16
But so I like the fact that they're rested versus a tired
18:19
Devils team and the rest of the awful loss they've had to sit on
18:22
that 4 to one loss, you know, chomping at the bit here to get
18:24
back and hopefully be motivational edge tonight.
18:28
Also at home, of course, last ice change benefit toward
18:31
Carolina, and the system match that I have is a favorite versus
18:35
the team versus the team on the second leg of a back-to-back
18:38
that is so far this season, 7 and 464% since 2021, it's 610
18:45
and two, 8069% with a 7% ROI. So I'm going to bank on this
18:50
line, move toward Carolina. Huge rest.
18:52
First tired system match again, home ice last change, hopefully
18:56
a goalie advantage. Give me the Carolina Hurricanes,
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guys, shop around. I got the canes at -160 Now as
19:04
we wrapped up our three pack tonight, let's see if we can get
19:06
2 out of 3 eke out a winning night.
19:08
Let's look to the college football slate for this weekend
19:11
because there are a couple early games that caught my eye,
19:14
including a couple games you may want to get get down on sooner
19:17
rather than later. Now the first game that I wrote
19:20
about for visa.com, you can always find out on Tuesday, I'll
19:23
write my early sharp report for visa.com.
19:26
You can see it on my Twitter at Josh under score insights.
19:30
But this is one most heavily bet games of the weekend and found a
19:33
good opportunity to take the dog LSU at Arkansas.
19:38
This is a 7:00 game Saturday night and we've been having a
19:41
lot of success with these primetime games with a home dog
19:44
in a line move. And that's what's happening here
19:47
in favor of the Razorbacks. So LSU comes in five and one.
19:50
They're ranked 8th in the country.
19:52
Just had a big upset win over Ole Miss 29 to 26.
19:55
They won outright as a four point home dog.
19:58
Arkansas four and two unranked. They just shocked Tennessee 19
20:01
to 14 picked up the win. They're a 14 point home dog one
20:05
outright. So what have you seen across the
20:07
market here? Well, LSU open around a
20:09
three-point Rd. favorite. Saw a couple books that maybe
20:12
were closer to like 4 1/2 four, but it was mostly LSU -3 and the
20:16
public says this line is way too short.
20:19
Currently you're getting 72% of spread bets laying the points of
20:23
LSU. However, despite this heavy
20:25
betting on LSU, you've actually seen this line stay the same or
20:28
even fall a little bit toward Arkansas.
20:32
So you open this one again -3 everyone's playing.
20:35
Excuse me, can't call my throat, can't call my tongue.
20:39
Anyway -3 LSU, everyone's playing LSU.
20:43
Three out of four bets, yet a lot of these threes are still 3.
20:46
But guys, there's actually a lot of shops going down to 2 1/2.
20:49
So important thing here is that if you want to take the points
20:53
with Arkansas, you probably want to bet it right now.
20:55
If you can still find that three, I'm seeing it available
20:58
at quite a few shops. But yet again, there are a lot
21:01
down to 2 1/2. And why is that important?
21:03
Because again, LSU wins by three.
21:06
We want to push an Arkansas plus three.
21:08
I'd love for Arkansas to win the game outright and it won't
21:10
matter. But let's try to get that three
21:12
that key number before it falls everywhere painted to 2 1/2, but
21:16
also reasons to like Arkansas here.
21:19
They're only getting 28% of bets and a heavily bet ESPN game 7:00
21:23
so great bet against the public contrarian value.
21:26
They're only getting 28% bets but 63% of dollars.
21:30
A huge low bets higher dollars bet split Razorbacks buy low
21:34
value as an unranked home dog against a ranked opponent and a
21:38
conference dog as well in the SEC built in familiarity
21:41
leveling the playing field. Also big rest first tired play
21:45
Arkansas coming off a by playing your third straight home game
21:49
LSU played on Saturday. Now they got to travel and go on
21:52
the road. Razorbacks by the way dog who
21:54
can score system match the averaging 33 points a game.
21:58
So keep pace or backdoor cover. Arkansas also has the better
22:01
defense, only giving up nineteen points a game versus 22 for LSU,
22:06
but this one jumped out to me. One of the most heavily bet
22:08
games of the weekend. Everyone's going LSU, but those
22:11
threes are getting down to 2 1/2, so I'm going to play
22:13
Arkansas here. I was able to get Arkansas +3.
22:16
If you only have access to a 2 1/2, I'd wait it out.
22:19
Maybe it creeps back up, but hopefully you have multiple
22:22
outs. Shop around.
22:23
I was able to get Arkansas at +3.
22:26
Next one for you, Auburn, Missouri.
22:29
This looks like a blowout, right?
22:30
Missouri is going to roll. Hopefully not.
22:33
Auburn comes in two and four. They've lost three straight,
22:36
just lost to Georgia 3113. They did cover, however, as a 21
22:40
1/2 point Rd. dog Mizzou's five and one.
22:42
They're ranked 19th. They just crushed little UMass
22:45
45 to 3 covered as a 27 half point Rd. favorite.
22:49
So this game open Missouri listed as a 6 1/2 point home
22:53
favorite and public says Missouri's going to roll.
22:56
You know Auburn obviously is disappointed.
22:58
Missouri's ranked, Auburn is not.
23:00
So lay the points right. However, Missouri, despite
23:03
getting 71% of bets, we've seen the line fall away from Mizzou
23:07
toward Auburn. Auburn went from plus 6 1/2 down
23:10
to plus 4 1/2. So the lines going to Auburn,
23:13
even though Auburn is only getting 29% of spread bets.
23:17
So contrarian in a heavily bet game.
23:19
Also 29% bets but 69% money. That is a huge low bets higher
23:25
dollars bet split Auburn lot of system matches like Arkansas
23:29
conference dog, unranked, first ranked and a rest advantage.
23:32
They're coming off a by Mizzou played on Saturday so I'm
23:35
looking at Auburn plus 4 1/2 and then last one here, South
23:41
Carolina at Oklahoma. Give me the points here guys +3
23:46
with South Carolina. South Carolina comes in three
23:48
and three. They lost Alabama 2725 but put
23:51
up a good fight. They are 21 1/2 point Rd. dog.
23:54
They probably should have won that game.
23:55
Oklahoma by the way, 4:00 and 2:00 just got rolled by Texas 34
23:59
to 3 did not cover as a 16 1/2 point home dog.
24:03
So what are we seeing across the market here?
24:04
Well, Oklahoma open as a three-point home favorite and
24:08
even though they're getting a slight majority of bets, 59%, a
24:11
lot of these threes have either fallen to 2 1/2 or a really
24:15
juiced up towards South Carolina plus three at -115 that's
24:20
important because if Publix Oklahoma, shouldn't they be up
24:22
to 3 1/2 or 4? No, they've stayed the same or
24:25
even fallen toward the Gamecocks tells me Gamecocks here are
24:28
taking in smart money at the key number of three.
24:31
They are contrarian and heavily back game, only getting 41% of
24:35
bats, but they match one of my favorite systems, short Rd. dogs
24:38
getting 4 or less. That's a grinder match.
24:40
It has a lot of system plays, 54%, 4% ROI since 2012.
24:46
That's a big sample. You're not going to become a
24:47
millionaire, but you get a lot of matches each week and you're
24:50
beating the 52.38 break even number.
24:53
And why is that a good system? Because think about it.
24:56
Typically you're going to get three points for home field.
24:58
So if you're a road dog getting 4 or less, basically on a
25:01
neutral site, it's a pick em game.
25:04
Also, you look at South Carolina, good offense, they're
25:06
averaging 27.5 points per game. Oklahoma 24.3 and they are a dog
25:11
in a low total game. Total in this one is only 41, so
25:14
I'm going to take South Carolina again.
25:15
A lot of books getting down to 2 1/2.
25:18
I'd be surprised if it creeps up to 3 1/2 throughout the week.
25:21
I'm happy to take that +3 with the Gamecocks again with some
25:24
books getting down to 2 1/2. So South Carolina plus 3, Auburn
25:28
plus 4 1/2 and Arkansas plus 3. Some early wagers for me that we
25:33
can then monitor throughout the week.
25:35
That about does it for episode 141 of the All Systems Go sports
25:39
Betting podcast powered by rhythm.
25:41
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
25:43
start by asking a favor of you. Can you do me a solid?
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Could you please give this podcast a five star review on
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Five stars will take you 2 seconds.
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Just Click to the rate and review button.
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Boom, give it five stars. Really help us to grow the pod
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to gain more credibility across the market, gain more listens
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and rise up those charts if there's an option to leave a
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nice review. Hey, I really enjoy these
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betting breakdowns. I feel like I'm betting on my
26:11
head and not my heart. Boom.
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It'll take you 3 seconds, maybe 10 seconds, but those would go a
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long way if you want to click the follow button.
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That way you get alerted as soon as it drops each day.
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That'll be cool. And then if you want to
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recommend it to a friend, nothing wrong with word of
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mouth, but please give this pot a five star review if you enjoy
26:27
each each episode. Secondly, if you enjoy the
26:30
data-driven breakdowns, the way we look at the market, will we
26:34
win every bet? No, but we are making informed
26:36
bets with our head and not our heart.
26:38
Playing the long game, grinding the sharp contrarian philosophy.
26:41
If never before you looked at line move system matches, bet
26:45
splits, you never you bet a ton of parlays, now you're a flat
26:49
better. Whatever the case may be, if
26:51
this pot has helped you along in your sports betting journey and
26:53
you want to learn more about data-driven betting, do me a
26:56
favor, buy my book. That's right, I'm an author.
26:59
I wrote a book. Just go to Amazon.com and type
27:01
in the Everything Guide to Sports betting.
27:04
Pick up a copy for you or for a buddy or someone in your life
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who loves sports betting but loses a lot and just has no
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bankroll management plan and just bets with their gut
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instinct. Teach them how to be a
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data-driven better. It makes a great stocking
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stuffer, a great birthday present.
27:18
It would make my day if you guys wanted to pick one up, support
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the team. Again, the Everything Guide to
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sports betting available on Amazon as well as you can buy it
27:25
in person Barnes and Noble, but it's got everything I've learned
27:28
in the industry, how lines are set, how and why they move, how
27:30
to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to go
27:33
contrarian, how to place the bet in person or online, how to set
27:36
up a bankroll management plan, all included in the everything
27:39
guide to sports betting. Next, have you taken advantage
27:42
of rhythm and juice real, my two favorite sports betting apps on
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the market. They help me win.
27:46
They're going to help you win. So if you haven't done it yet,
27:48
I'd love for you guys to give it a shot with a 7 day free trial,
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you can take advantage of rhythm in terms of their AI driven game
27:56
bets and models for player props.
27:59
Juice Reel of course is great for their Robo Jackson best bet
28:02
picks that come out each day, as well as looking at the arbitrage
28:06
opportunities, looking at game breakdowns, real bets and
28:09
dollars by people who have synced up their sports books to
28:12
Juice Reel. And then of course, those sharp
28:14
mush system matches, which I really enjoy looking at helps me
28:17
to kind of identify those, you know, plays where you have a ton
28:20
of bad betters on one side and good betters on the other.
28:23
But both Juice Reel and Rhythm are two great apps to add to
28:26
your tools for to add to your toolbox or throw in your tool
28:29
shed, whatever you want to whatever you want to call it.
28:31
But please sign up in a specific way by clicking those custom
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links that are located in the bio description of the pod.
28:38
Today's pod will say something like in episode 141, Josh dishes
28:41
out a three pack of sweats, yadda, yadda, yadda.
28:44
Scroll down, go beneath that intro paragraph and you should
28:47
see some links for both Juice Reel and Rhythm.
28:49
Click those custom links, then you'll get set U for your 7 day
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free trial and then juice trail rhythm will know that I refer to
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you, which is very important because I want them to know that
28:58
I'm doing my part to help them help them grow.
29:00
But lastly, guys leave you with a couple things.
29:03
First, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
29:06
River in Rhode Island, the Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or
29:08
Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain
29:12
Rich Park Casino or MGM Springfield and my neck of the
29:15
woods in Massachusetts. Or of course, out in the desert
29:18
where the true grinders get down.
29:19
Where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the lowest
29:21
juice possible is found, the South Point or Sweat and sharp
29:24
contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swim pool.
29:27
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be, don't
29:30
show me Monday Night Football tickets.
29:33
You're telling me out of The Jets, the under in Breeze Hall.
29:34
We couldn't get one of those. Pathetic.
29:37
But we did have a good night outside of the NFL.
29:39
Show me a Pittsburgh Penguins ticket.
29:41
Show me a Yankees under 7 1/2 ticket.
29:43
Guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
29:46
you. We're going to post about the
29:47
book. Sweatshop Contrarian plays all
29:49
night long. So have a fantastic Tuesday
29:51
everyone. As always, I'll give you my my
29:55
parting words. Stay sharp, stay contrarian.
29:58
Bet against the public, place yourself on the side of the
30:00
house. Always be with the smart money,
30:02
never against it. Well, smart money when every
30:04
time, of course not, we beat the closing line with The Jets,
30:07
Jets, Jets were The Jets Soj, same old Jets.
30:11
However, if we make those plays long term, getting a 1 1/2 when
30:14
a team closes at 1:00, making bets based on our head and not
30:17
our heart, against the public, with the sharps, with the pros,
30:21
flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
30:23
If we can do that long term, we're going to be successful
30:25
sports bettors. So have a great Tuesday night
30:28
everybody. We got baseball, we got
30:30
football, we got NHL. Let's see if we can get two out
30:32
of three tonight and have a winning night.
30:34
Good luck everybody, and as always, I will see you tomorrow
30:38
for episode 142 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
30:41
podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody, have a
30:45
great Tuesday night.