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Shapiroworld by Strictly Business · Strictly Business Podcast

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You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
0:05
It's Monday, so it's time for Shapiro World with David Shapiro from Sasson
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Securities in Johannesburg.
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David, another big week as we got the jobs numbers on Friday from the United States.
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That's non-farm payrolls.
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It's a monthly event and it's closely watched by everybody now, with the new Fed
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chairman in particular.
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We'll be watching it as well and we'll be watching him.
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Then you've got the ISM numbers, both of them, and also...
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A couple of companies that we've been talking about recently, AMD, which you
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like and which you hold, they're out tomorrow.
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And also SpaceX is out tomorrow, I think it is.
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And the other interesting thing about that is that there's $116 billion worth of
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shares that have been
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inside a lockdown that will be released tomorrow as well.
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Now, I can't see a lot of people saying, well, I bought it at 135 or got it at 135
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because I'm an employee.
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And then.
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bunging it out much lower.
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So I don't think that'll be a factor for now.
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But for me, it gives the share a little bit of a cap.
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Were they placed with the staff at 135 or were they given allocations long before
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that?
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That's my worry.
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I don't know.
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If it was allocated to them at a substantially lower price, then there's a
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very good chance that they will cash in something.
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I've been...
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very surprised at the performance of SpaceX and why people have been
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dumping them.
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Whether it was that hedge fund, that situational, what's it, awareness that Ken
1:38
Griffin took and
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they had got a big chunk and just were forced to sell, I don't know.
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You know, I mean, they were dumping something like $15 billion worth of stock
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on the market, which caused
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havoc.
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So...
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But there's been no, even today, SpaceX is back to 108.
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So there's been no kind of white knight coming to support them at these levels.
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It's very odd because we're still seeing, Lindsay, the sell-off in some of those
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semiconductors.
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You know, while Alphabet and Microsoft are taking off, there's still a lot of
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weakness in the semiconductors,
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understanding where they've come from and, you know, how much they've done.
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So it's not all smooth sailing at the moment, but we're going to have to go
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through SpaceX and to see
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what the promoters saw and why they felt that it was worth 135.
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I haven't seen the prospectus and how they're going to justify that it's now
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where it is.
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Also, all those analysts who've given these one-year target prices significantly
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higher than they are at the moment.
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You know, I'd like to get their comment.
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having seen the results, comparing it
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with their coverage.
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That's interesting reading.
3:00
That's what makes markets.
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That's what makes markets fun.
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Yes, exactly.
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And the other thing that makes markets fun increasingly is Donald Trump.
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Now, he went to Bedminster golf course over the weekend.
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He was there for two days playing golf on both days in a tournament at his own club.
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And, of course, he won it.
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He won it.
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Do they let him win?
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I don't believe that.
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He's won 43 tournaments and every single one has been his own course.
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He said the other day when he played some course that is part of the PGA Tour, he
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said he shot a 67.
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Now, Phil Mickelson then went and played it the next day and shot a 73, I think it
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was.
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But Trump says all the other people, I don't get enough time to practice, he
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says, but I've got talent and that's why I won it.
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He's unbelievable.
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Then he got on Air Force One and he went back to either Mar-a-Lago or to
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Washington, wherever.
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And on the plane with the press gaggle, he said, oh, no, I'm not going to
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bomb Iran anymore.
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I'm going to call off that.
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And that's because there's meetings going on and there's a meeting starting Monday.
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And we're very close to a deal.
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The journalist said, well, who's talking to who and where is this?
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And he couldn't answer because there is no meeting.
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The Iranians just said it's another lie.
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There's no meeting.
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Why does he say that?
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The oil traders believe it.
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The bond traders don't.
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I believe the bond market.
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What about you?
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Look, I don't know who to believe anymore.
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Genuinely, because I saw by Saturday night or by the weekend, things were really
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building up.
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And I know from Israel that there were warnings there and people going to Israel
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kind of warning about traveling and so and
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so.
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You get the news from relations and cousins that are there and so on, gearing
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up for issues.
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And then by Sunday morning, that was yesterday morning, just going on to the
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news, you
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see his truth social story come out that he's holding off.
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And, you know, why?
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Because, as you say, but we've heard nothing further from that, mainly because
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I think they were dead scared.
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He was threatening to take out a lot of infrastructure, electricity and power
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plants and so on.
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So, you know, you don't know anymore, Lindsay, I promise you.
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It's the ups and downs.
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In the meantime today, I think the market's saying, well, we'll tend to
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believe it, you know, we're going to go with the story for whatever it
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is.
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But you don't know tomorrow.
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Well, you don't know.
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He may say, look, we're stuck on two things.
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Surprise, surprise, the straightforward moves and the denuclearization.
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of Iran, and we can't agree on that.
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And so he'll say we're going to bomb the S out of them over the next few days.
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He's unbelievable the way he plays with people, with politics, with geopolitics,
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with golf cheating,
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with markets.
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I can't believe it.
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But I rant every week.
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How was your reading over the weekend?
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What can you tell us?
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You know what?
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There are a lot of stories.
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I mean, because now we're in the post-results period, there are still a few
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to come through.
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AMD as you say SpaceX and uh and I think a month from now or certainly I think at the
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end of August we'll start to we'll get a
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video again and so on yeah and and overall uh most of the articles are
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around oh the end of mag seven you know I'm getting a little bored with the
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financial times as well and they're bearish and I've
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you know I'm saying hold on a sec it was never a mag seven you know it was always
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exaggerated, basically saying
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that the hyperscalers...
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had their time.
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Well, of course they've had their time.
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They've led this market up for four years.
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They can't keep increasing at the pace, but they're still very, at the pace that
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they have, but they're still very
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significant major companies.
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And we use it all the time.
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In fact, we're using it now.
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I'm using Apple.
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I'm using a screen.
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All the software that I have is of the hyperscalers.
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I use, thanks to Viva, I'm now using um Claude.
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I'm using Claude, which has analysed my portfolio and tells me that I stink as a
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manager.
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When you see them analyse it, it's quite embarrassing.
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What did it tell you?
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I mean, did it look at your returns or did it look at the construction of your
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portfolio or both?
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The construction.
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The construction.
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So it goes to a conventional type of construction and tells you, listen.
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you need a little bit of industrial you need some financials you need this you
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need that you're overweight yeah you're you know did you tell it you
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don't believe in diversification that should be the first thing you put in i'm
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not a diversified fund manager i
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asked them then the conundrum because the conundrum is that and and it's a conundrum
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that we have when we deal with
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private clients yes is that if you're going to sell a person out of a big profit
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uh and and
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sure we know that there's capital gains tax.
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Yes.
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You're going to pay, call it 18% of that profit in tax.
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I'm talking at the marginal rate.
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Right.
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So if you're going to buy something, you've got to ensure that whatever you buy
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outpaces what you've
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sold by at least 18%.
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So you're minus 18% before you even start.
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Yes.
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But you've got to, you know what we tend to forget is that if we sell out.
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The company that we sold out is still a decent business.
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It's not going to go flat.
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So the outperformance, that's what I'm trying to say, the outperformance of
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whatever we buy has to be by 18%.
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Yes.
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You know, not the performance, the outperformance.
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So...
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And you can't in any clever way, in any legal way, avoid CGT, no?
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So you sometimes get stuck and it's the biggest...
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It hurts our business because it takes away our flexibility.
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I know you can put it into all kinds of structures, but that also takes away your
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flexibility, various structures.
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So I'm trying to work out a method and say, okay, find me these companies that
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are going to outperform
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what I sell at 18% to make it worthwhile for me to do whatever you're telling me to
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do.
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But it's fun.
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When Viv tells you that...
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the ladies in his office or the people in his office use it extensively, I can
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understand why.
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It's a very, very useful tool.
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Are you adding it to your existing exposure to AI, or have you got rid of it
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and just
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stayed with Claude?
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No, I still like Copilot.
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And I'll tell you where I like Copilot.
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It's very good in the sense that it gives you distinct, you know, easy
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to understand and simple analysis.
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So if I say to you today, if I say, you know, I was looking at Heuleman and I'm
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saying, what does Heuleman do?
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What were the results like today?
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You know, what were the highlights of that?
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It comes back to me in easy to understand points, you know.
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taking the information, giving it to me.
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And it's almost like a primer, but it's fast.
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You know, I don't have to look for it.
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It's very speedy, very clear.
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And I can, for example, say, you know, you can say to me, okay, here's 10
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stocks.
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What do you think of them?
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And I'll put those names and I'll say, just give me a one-liner on each stock.
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And it's very clear.
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You know, that one-liner sums it up beautifully.
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So, I mean, yes, you can't use it.
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You know, you have to go back and extend it and do a lot more information.
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But it does give you, like, clues.
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You know what I mean?
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It's very, very good from that point of view.
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Yeah, nice performance from Hewlett-Packard, by the way, up 16% at the
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moment, David.
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Yes, yes.
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Pretty good stuff.
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What was the reason for that?
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If you see on Friday, they were up 10%.
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You know, that's our market, you know, before the results were out.
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What a surprise.
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Does our good friend who shall not be named the very deep value investor, does
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he still own Hewlamin?
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I think he owns the whole company and his father.
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I'm sure the whole family own them.
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And they own a lot of pots and pans as well, I'm sure.
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You know what?
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It should be a good business.
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I'm surprised it's got a market value of $600 million or something like that, which
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is ridiculous.
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It's tiny.
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Tiny, I know, but if you think of the expertise in it, the equipment and all of
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that, you know, sometimes these businesses
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are crazy.
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Anglo-Gold Ashanti up 7% today on the JSE.
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Goldfields, I noticed, came out as well, I think, or is it coming out tomorrow?
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I don't know.
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But anyway, some results coming out.
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And Hewlamin, although it's tiny, and it can't attract any big fund managers, can
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it, with a market cap of
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600 million?
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No, no, you can't get the shares.
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You know, you can't get the shares and look, that's a private equity investment
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and a very
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good sensible one.
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Hopefully it, you know, hopefully it pays dividends
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and it should.
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You know, we're Heulemen.
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It's such an interesting history because we're not, you know, aluminium like other
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smelters, like
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other metals.
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You need an enormous amount of electricity to process it.
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I think chrome is like that as well, chrome wool.
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I'm not a geologist, I'm not an engineer, but I certainly know from aluminium.
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And we are not natural aluminium producers.
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We don't mine alumina here or bauxite, which I think are the two ingredients that
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go into making
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aluminium.
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What we did have was power.
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We had very cheap...
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electricity from Eskom back in the days.
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And that's why we built, what's it, Hillside, Bayside and Mosel,
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which is in Mozambique.
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And that was all because of cheap electricity.
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And what happened when...
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This was owned by Billiton.
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No, but the electricity was so cheap that they could bring in the alumina and the
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bauxite into the port, smelt it there, and that's
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that.
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That's it, and then sell the aluminium.
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Right.
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But things changed because we ran out of electricity.
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And there were a lot of dealings with BHP Bulletin, I think, which went to then
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South32, which I think
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subsequently sold it.
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So I think they do manufacture some aluminium, which went to...
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And that's why would you have had Heuleman?
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The only reason you had Heuleman was that because they had aluminium on their
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doorstep.
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So it's been an issue.
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So they still have to import the aluminium, I'm saying that in inverted
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commas, in other words, and then
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export it.
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Because a lot of the beer cans and a lot of the aluminium that they produce is
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exported.
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So they're in the middle sometimes.
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So it's not an easy business.
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And it's quite surprising they made money, which could have only been through very
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clever trading because the aluminium price has done very
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well.
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You read that all over about aluminium, you know, you read about the huge cost of
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manufacture, of
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converting it.
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All electricity.
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Anyway, apart from Claude, which you've familiarised yourself with since Viv gave
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you the tip on Thursday night, almost
15:12
insisting that you used it.
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He was insistent, wasn't he?
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He was so enthusiastic about it.
15:17
I mean, even after he said that thing about Timu, he's addicted to Timu, but not
15:21
because he's buying cheap shorts and
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T-shirts and things, because he's buying optical equipment, you know, telescopes
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and stuff.
15:30
But aside from that, did you read anything, any more insight?
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You know what I loved?
15:35
There's an article I wrote.
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It's in The Economist this weekend as well.
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It's all about the food industry, you know, how it's changed.
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And it's fascinating because I've seen it in actual practice in New York City.
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I've seen the change that have come post-COVID.
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And also, you know, with COVID, of course, people stayed at home.
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They changed their habits.
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We've had, you know, you've got Uber Eats now.
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And what was incredible about this article, it just highlights how
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difficult it is to make money out of restaurants and that.
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And, you know, they said that after COVID, I think 10% of the US and UK
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restaurants shut, you know, around about 2020.
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And what's happening now as well, because people are at home, suburban dining
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is stronger than in-city dining.
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You know from when you worked in the city.
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Yes.
16:37
You know, you'd always stay either a Friday night for dinner or something like
16:42
that, and people ate in the city.
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No one eats in the city now on Friday nights.
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You know, it's gone to Thursday night.
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That's the new Friday because people don't work at home and because of… They want to
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go home on Fridays because it's
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streaming whatever, Netflix or whatever.
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The other thing is now that three in four U.S.
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meals are consumed off-site.
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In other words, off-site means not in the restaurant.
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Oh, I see.
17:11
Okay.
17:12
So how does the restaurant business survive then?
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I suppose it doesn't.
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Simple as that.
17:17
With great difficulty.
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It said that the articles of 42% of US restaurants were unprofitable last year.
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And you've seen even in China, you know, average spend per meal is down.
17:30
So you get these ghost kitchens that come up, you know, where it's a kitchen that
17:35
makes food for delivery,
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you know, for Uber or for, you know, for, you know, sending to your home.
17:43
Right.
17:44
And, of course, there's a lot of competition in that.
17:48
But...
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The best story I heard is that, look, there's a lot of automation taking place.
17:53
So the restaurants now have to make sure that they keep their customers happy.
17:58
If a person's going to go out and eat, it's got to be something that they want to
18:03
do.
18:04
You know, you've got to make them leave home for something special.
18:09
But restaurants now are also introducing software, you know, to improve their
18:15
services.
18:17
They'll have cameras that recognize you, you know, might have been there before, so
18:21
they know where you are, what you eat.
18:23
But I think what I've found in this, there's a place called, there's a software
18:29
called
18:30
Toast, which manages 164,000 restaurants, inventories and payouts.
18:37
In other words, you know, they use it.
18:39
So, you know, all the restaurants now use their equipment.
18:45
But what they found, and this is what's so fascinating, is that when Taylor Swift was
18:50
in Miami,
18:52
when she was giving her concerts, they found that there was a 20% surge in omelet
18:57
sales.
18:58
Omelets?
18:59
Omelets, yeah.
19:00
Why?
19:01
Because the fans knew they were going to be there for a long time.
19:04
So they loaded up on protein, on energy.
19:10
And then after a Beyonce concert, they found that...
19:13
People were ordering hard seltzer, which I assume is liquor infused, and also
19:19
late-night meals
19:20
where the peak was at 4 a.m.
19:25
So why I say this is that obviously restaurants can now start to cater.
19:30
They're getting more information around, you know, they're getting a lot more
19:36
information around
19:37
how to manage their inventories, their business, and so on.
19:40
But it's in The Economist.
19:42
I'm not...
19:42
But, you know, it's just very, very fascinating because I've been fascinated
19:48
by this whole
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post-COVID period and how it's just changed everything that we do.
19:54
I will send you pictures, David, around about 500 metres from where I live.
19:59
There's a huge farm and it's run by a chap called Fokker de Jong.
20:03
And he's put a beautiful wooden hut structure there
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and it's...
20:12
full of vending machines and the vending machines are full of fruit and vegetables
20:17
and dairy so you go there and you've got
20:19
these fantastic bags of potatoes that have just come out the ground and they're all
20:22
in their own individual little compartment a glass
20:25
compartment um and you you take your your credit card with you or your debit card
20:31
and you you punch
20:32
it all in and then the door opens and you get the bag of potatoes you put it back
20:37
you put it back in it's open 24 hours
20:39
a day it's just a small thing on one farm with just that farm or local farms and
20:44
produce.
20:45
In the future, perhaps, it'll be like that.
20:47
I mean, I go to Aldi, for example, which is a German company.
20:52
You don't have it in South Africa.
20:53
It's about 30% cheaper than other supermarkets.
20:57
You go there with your shopping list, and some of the things they won't have because
21:01
they're very much, okay, we've got these tins of
21:04
tomatoes from Italy at the moment, and they load the place with these tomatoes at
21:08
99 cents instead of the...
21:10
Two euros, 20 you pay elsewhere.
21:13
So people go there and then they wander around and buy other stuff.
21:16
It's incredible.
21:17
But they don't do any fancy packaging.
21:19
It's all in crates and boxes and things like that.
21:22
It's well-labeled and the aisles are nice and wide and it's easily accessible.
21:26
It doesn't look fancy.
21:28
But the vending machine idea, if there was space, I'd rather go to a vending machine
21:32
than go in a supermarket and interact with
21:35
a lot of other people, quite frankly.
21:38
People don't behave well in supermarkets.
21:41
But things are changing, hey?
21:42
I mean, that's what's so fascinating about all of this, hey?
21:49
You know, and I just think that from our point of view, and it's something I've
21:53
said before, you know, I'm just saying we can't afford to take our
21:56
eye off the market.
21:58
You know what I mean?
21:59
We've got to keep looking for changes and how they're going to affect.
22:03
businesses particularly um do the field work do you go out into the field and
22:09
that's what you did with rolls royce and i sent
22:10
you an article over the last few days from the guardian after their results came out
22:14
and said it's going to be maybe the most valuable company
22:17
on the in the footsie 100 or something i didn't read the full article but you you
22:22
knew everything in that article i'm sure but it's
22:24
just saying the word is out there about rolls royce well i was listening to
22:28
farnborough You know what I mean?
22:30
That's, you know...
22:33
I was listening with fascination to the interviews at Farnborough.
22:37
Yes.
22:38
You know, and the only thing I know is getting on an aircraft is, you know, you
22:43
get on and you wait a
22:44
long time and then you take off, you know, whatever.
22:47
But, I mean, the fascination with engines and how they use and how they model, you
22:53
know, because
22:55
they get a royalty for however long the engines are in the air.
22:59
You know, so anyway, this is not the right.
23:02
Listen.
23:02
The, the, it started off from Mr.
23:05
Rolls and Mr.
23:05
Royce, whoever they were when they made the, you know, with the engineering of
23:09
motor cars.
23:10
But I mean, this is how it's transformed today into this incredible company.
23:14
So yeah.
23:16
Okay.
23:17
Good.
23:17
That's a fun of the markets.
23:18
You know, I'm not a, I'm not a value investor.
23:20
I'm not, you know, I enjoy looking for the stories.
23:24
Yeah, and you can't sit around for five years waiting for something to move
23:27
because not only are you OCD, but you're
23:31
also ADHD as well.
23:33
So you haven't got the patience to be a deep value investor.
23:36
David, there's no football this weekend.
23:38
There was a match last night between Liverpool and Leeds, a friendly match.
23:42
It was at 10 o'clock Central European time and South African time.
23:46
And normally I can go into AI and I can say, where can I watch this match free
23:50
streaming online?
23:51
It'll come back with something like...
23:53
You can go to this place, this broadcaster in Albania or something.
23:58
And that's what I do.
23:58
I just get it free because I use a virtual personal network, VPN.
24:04
And it's great.
24:04
I know I sound like I'm a bit of a skinflint, but I object to some of these
24:08
premiums that I'm paying for streaming services and
24:12
sports feeds and all that.
24:13
So I try and find it for nothing.
24:16
But you, of course, pay for things.
24:19
You pay for Apple and probably Amazon Prime as well and Netflix.
24:23
But you paid for a film, I understand.
24:25
You sort of mentioned it in our preamble.
24:28
That was on Prime or it was on one of the sites.
24:32
You can say I can have it, you can have it if you want for adverts.
24:36
And the last thing you do is every 10 minutes you get 10 minutes of adverts,
24:40
which are up to date.
24:41
It's not as though they're embedded.
24:43
They're actually live adverts coming for you.
24:45
Most of them are around kind of drugs that you should be taking.
24:49
I'm not talking about.
24:51
recreational drugs I'm talking about, for every ailment you can imagine, or who
24:55
knows, or insurance and so on.
24:57
It's annoying.
24:59
And the quality that you pay for sometimes, that's also another story.
25:05
You're not going to mention the name of the film in case you get sued.
25:09
And finally, David, talking about drugs, I noticed the FT reporting that AstraZeneca
25:13
and Bristol-Myers might be getting together for
25:15
$400 billion.
25:17
Is that good or bad?
25:18
What?
25:18
Well, the market didn't like it.
25:20
I've actually liked, I've been, you know, AstraZeneca's down on the year.
25:26
I've had it for a long time, and I'm not quite sure why I bought it in the old, you
25:31
know, why I've had it for so long.
25:33
And lately, you know, it's a good company with a big pipeline, particularly into
25:40
cancer drugs.
25:42
And, you know, the market hasn't responded well to this.
25:46
So I think.
25:47
The last time I looked, they were down quite significantly.
25:50
They were down about, where is it?
25:53
Down 8% on the Bristol-Myers takeover, whether they're overpaying or not.
26:00
But investors don't like takeovers.
26:05
I'm sure Bristol-Myers is up.
26:07
I haven't looked there.
26:07
But in other words, they're not quite sure why you're doing it or whether you really
26:13
get the benefits of the
26:14
merger, whether there's anything that comes out of it.
26:16
And I think that's why you always get this negative reaction.
26:20
So if I look year to date, that takes AstraZeneca down to 16%, which is
26:27
not so great.
26:28
I mean, LVMH is down 23%, but I can understand that.
26:32
And Ermin is down 25%.
26:34
But AstraZeneca, no.
26:35
Okay.
26:38
Yeah.
26:38
So we avoid that one.
26:40
Lindsay, it's a hard the pharmaceutical industry is impossible.
26:45
You know, I mean, it's so difficult to monitor and to invest in.
26:51
And I know it's supposed to be a defensive industry, but sure, it's difficult.
26:57
Okay, David, only three and a half weeks to go.
26:59
Just over three and a half weeks now to the start of the new season.
27:02
And we'll be in full flow again.
27:04
Looking forward to that.
27:05
And looking forward to speaking to you and Viv on Thursday.
27:08
But for now, David Shapiro is from Sasson Securities in Johannesburg.
27:11
And that was Shapiro World.
27:13
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