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Coalitions after Local Government Elections · Drive with John Perlman

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: You're with John Pullman on 702. Let's walk the talk.
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: Voting yesterday, today and tomorrow, then counting and recounting and
• 0:12
  Speaker 2: probably some squabbling around the counting. And then eventually we
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: will have the election results. But that really is likely
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: to be half of the job, because I think in
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: an unprecedented number of municipalities and certainly in all of
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  Speaker 2: our metros, we will be governed by coalitions. Coalitions put
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  Speaker 2: together by groups of people who until very recently or not,
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  Speaker 2: that long before the coalition talks began, had been kind
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  Speaker 2: of a daggers drawn, sometimes in a fairly combative and
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: friendly way. But there's been a fair amount of acid
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  Speaker 2: in the political conversation over the last few months, I
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: think it's fair to say. So how do coalitions get
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  Speaker 2: put together under those circumstances? Well, somebody who has, in
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  Speaker 2: many ways, an unparalleled insight into that is our colleague
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  Speaker 2: right here at 702, host of the Midday Report, Mandy Wiener.
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  Speaker 2: Partly because of the work she does on radio that
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  Speaker 2: you know well, but many of you, I'm sure, will
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: have also read the book she wrote in 2024 at
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  Speaker 2: breakneck speed. to capture the conversations, compromises, and in many instances,
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  Speaker 2: quarrels as well, that eventually allowed South Africa to put
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  Speaker 2: together a government of national unity that currently runs the
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  Speaker 2: country at national level. The book is called The Deal
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  Speaker 2: Inside the Talks that Shaped South Africa's Future, and the
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  Speaker 2: reporting goes literally right inside those talks. So who better
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  Speaker 2: to tell us what might happen next week? Mandy Wiener,
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  Speaker 2: good afternoon. Good to have you with us. Thanks, John.
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  Speaker 1: Great to be with you.
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  Speaker 2: So, I mean, the first question to me is the
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  Speaker 2: one that comes immediately to mind. I mean, people literally
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  Speaker 2: do tear strips off each other as the political contestation unfolds.
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  Speaker 2: And every time I see people banging heads who I
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  Speaker 2: know are going to have to have a chat at
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  Speaker 2: some point after the counting is done, I mean, what
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  Speaker 2: happened in 2024 where people could at least develop a
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  Speaker 2: space that was neutral enough to talk business, even if
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  Speaker 2: they never ended up liking each other?
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  Speaker 1: John, it really does come down to interpersonal relationships.
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  Speaker 3: And I think that in 2024, everybody was firstly shocked.
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  Speaker 3: So they had to digest the news of this monolithic
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  Speaker 3: ANC that had begun to crumble. And for the first
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  Speaker 3: time in 30 years, there was no majority. So they
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  Speaker 3: very quickly had to mobilize and start opening channels for
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  Speaker 3: these conversations to happen. I was very surprised that the
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  Speaker 3: channels weren't open already. I remember standing at The Rock
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  Speaker 3: with you on the weekend of the results being announced thinking, no,
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  Speaker 3: surely they've already started these conversations. And as it emerged
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  Speaker 3: from the interviews I subsequently did, there were no real
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  Speaker 3: channels that were already open.
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  Speaker 1: They hadn't been discussing it.
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  Speaker 3: They'd been waiting for the outcome of the results. Yes,
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  Speaker 3: there was the moonshot pact, but the ANC and the
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  Speaker 3: DA itself hadn't really begun talking. So everything had to
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  Speaker 3: be done very, very quickly. There was 14 days to
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  Speaker 3: try and elect a president. And then you had parties
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  Speaker 3: who had been tearing strips off each other, suddenly having
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  Speaker 3: to get together in a room and the adults had
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  Speaker 3: to get to work and they had to put their
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  Speaker 3: personal differences aside and find a way to talk.
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  Speaker 2: It's a very interesting thing that you say because clearly
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  Speaker 2: I think this is very much more obviously on the cards,
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  Speaker 2: even if the signs were there before people actually took
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  Speaker 2: note of them back in 2024. Some of the reporting says,
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  Speaker 2: for example … The ANC has made clear these talks
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  Speaker 2: will go through the Secretary General's office, Figuile and Balula.
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  Speaker 2: He's a central character in your book. And the DA
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  Speaker 2: will run it how? Through the federal structure?
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  Speaker 1: Yes. So the federal structure was crucial.
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  Speaker 3: When it came to the 2024 negotiations. And of course,
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  Speaker 3: Helen Ziller chaired the FedEx. But there was some disagreement
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  Speaker 3: within the Democratic Alliance about how much influence the FedEx
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  Speaker 3: actually had, because there was also a negotiating team that
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  Speaker 3: was appointed by John Steenhuysen at the time. And some
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  Speaker 3: of the people on the negotiating team, like Ryan Coetzee
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  Speaker 3: and Tony Leon, were very unhappy about the fact that
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  Speaker 3: the FedEx had this overarching authority And everything went back
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  Speaker 3: to the FedEx for authorization under Helen Ziller.
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  Speaker 1: They felt that it shouldn't have worked that way.
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  Speaker 3: So I imagine there will be some lessons learned to
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  Speaker 3: now under the leadership of Jordan Hill-Lewis, perhaps things will
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  Speaker 3: happen differently within the DA. The ANC, everything went through
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  Speaker 3: a negotiating team as well. They called it more of
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  Speaker 3: a technical committee. But Fikile Mbalula was, as Secretary General,
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  Speaker 3: overarching in charge of that. I'm not sure if they're
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  Speaker 3: going to appoint a negotiating team again. There we had
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  Speaker 3: David Makura, Fibi Porchita-Kobule, very involved, Ken Kikana as well.
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  Speaker 3: And I'm going to be interested to watch and see
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  Speaker 3: if there are national level negotiations for multiple municipalities or metros.
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  Speaker 3: I did a really interesting interview with Rolf Mayer today,
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  Speaker 3: our ambassador to the United States, who knows a thing
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  Speaker 3: or two about negotiations. And his suggestion was that perhaps
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  Speaker 3: there should be a metro arrangement that reflects the GNU
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  Speaker 3: at national level. But I think the interpersonal dynamics at
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  Speaker 3: metro level is going to be very difficult to replicate
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  Speaker 3: what we're seeing in the GNU.
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  Speaker 2: You're pointing there, Mandy, to a thing that seems to have,
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  Speaker 2: to me at least, have many more moving parts because
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  Speaker 2: there were 10 entities in play in 2024, nine provinces
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  Speaker 2: and national government, many, many more now. And I'm wondering
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  Speaker 2: if you get into a whole conditional thing of saying, well,
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  Speaker 2: if you give us this in Tswane, we'll give you
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  Speaker 2: that in Nelson Mandela Bay. is going to be an
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  Speaker 2: enabling factor because there are many more points of leverage
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  Speaker 2: or something that really could bedevil any kind of progress,
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  Speaker 2: all of this against a ticking clock of 14 days?
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  Speaker 3: We have seen it happen in the past with the
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  Speaker 3: last local government elections in Ghateng, where there was leverage
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  Speaker 3: that was exercised, for example, in Ikuruleni in exchange for
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  Speaker 3: support in Suwanee. And I suspect we'll see that again
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  Speaker 3: where For example, Akshadeh Say will get Nasipi Moya as
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  Speaker 3: a mayor in Tswani in exchange for the support to
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  Speaker 3: another party in Ekureleni or Joburg. So I think when
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  Speaker 3: there are so many points of leverage, I think it's inevitable.
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  Speaker 3: But I think that this is all the more reason
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  Speaker 3: why we really need better guardrails and better legislation in
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  Speaker 3: South Africa.
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  Speaker 1: Yes.
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  Speaker 3: I have had many conversations with European ambassadors over the
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  Speaker 3: past few weeks about who read my book and were
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  Speaker 3: astonished at the lack of guardrails and legislation in place.
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  Speaker 3: You have somewhere like Belgium, where it takes 18 months
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  Speaker 3: to negotiate a 200-page coalition agreement. And here we're still
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: waiting for the coalition's bill to come into effect. There's
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: a white paper on local government. But we just don't
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  Speaker 3: have the necessary legislation that actually helps our politicians to
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  Speaker 3: make these coalition deals.
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  Speaker 2: I'm looking at some things that might have changed between
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  Speaker 2: 2024 and now. You mentioned certain disagreements within the DA,
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  Speaker 2: for example, Mandy, in the negotiating period about how things
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  Speaker 2: should work. But I want to focus on the ANC
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  Speaker 2: for the moment. Cyril Ramaphosa, president of the ANC and
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: of the country, is a number of years closer to
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  Speaker 2: when he will no longer hold either office. And I'm
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  Speaker 2: wondering if... the kinds of things the ANC was willing
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  Speaker 2: to contemplate as connected to his political purpose would still
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  Speaker 2: apply because he's not going to be president of the
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  Speaker 2: ANC for that much longer. He's certainly not going to
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  Speaker 2: be president of the country as we move into 2029.
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  Speaker 2: Do you think that changes who and how the ANC
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  Speaker 2: might be willing to work with?
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  Speaker 1: In some ways, yes.
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  Speaker 3: So if you cast your mind back to 2024 and
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  Speaker 3: you remember how divided the ANC was over going into
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  Speaker 3: what they call a government of national unity, but in
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  Speaker 3: many ways was a coalition with the DA. There was
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  Speaker 3: a lot of resistance within the NEC and the meetings.
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  Speaker 1: That took place in Kempton Park.
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  Speaker 3: And if you remember, there was a lot of reported
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  Speaker 3: contestation and pushback against Cyril Ramaphosa, but ultimately he won
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  Speaker 3: out and the decision was taken that there would be
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  Speaker 3: a government of national unity again. And that really consolidated
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  Speaker 3: his power within the ANC. And he was in many
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  Speaker 3: ways the architect of this government of national unity. I
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  Speaker 3: did an interview with him last year in which he
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  Speaker 3: described some of the strategy behind the negotiations. And the
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  Speaker 3: ANC was very strategic in the way that they negotiated.
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  Speaker 3: They got all the different parties into separate rooms. They
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  Speaker 3: didn't get them into one room. They ran the clock down.
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  Speaker 3: They were very clever, and that was President Ramaphosa that
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  Speaker 3: was pulling the strings there.
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  Speaker 1: Because his tenure is almost.
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  Speaker 3: At an end, remember, of course, the ANC goes to
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  Speaker 3: its own elective conference the end of next year, that
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  Speaker 3: perhaps weakens his position. And you look, for example, at
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  Speaker 3: the Gauteng ANC, which is very much against any kind
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  Speaker 3: of collaboration with the Democratic Alliance. And you'll see how
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  Speaker 3: difficult it is for the ANC and the DA to
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  Speaker 3: work together to in Gauteng, in Joburg potentially. We could
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  Speaker 3: see a situation where there could be a DA ANC
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  Speaker 3: coalition in Johannesburg or in Ekoroleni or in Tswane, but
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  Speaker 3: the Gauteng ANC is a different beast to the national ANC.
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  Speaker 2: Let's bring into the conversation then parties that could, I
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  Speaker 2: think according to polls at least, be third biggest, fourth biggest,
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  Speaker 2: the MK party, the EFF. Firstly, Do you think in
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  Speaker 2: coalition conversations they have a sufficiently coherent relationship with each
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  Speaker 2: other to be some kind of consistent block? And secondly,
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  Speaker 2: I can't see any way in which they would work
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  Speaker 2: with the DA, but is it entirely straightforward for them
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  Speaker 2: to work with the ANC, even a divided one?
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  Speaker 3: It will be tricky because then you've got the ANC
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  Speaker 3: with certain partners at national level and then certain at
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  Speaker 3: provincial level, which is what we have in Joburg at
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  Speaker 3: the moment as an example. I do think that there
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  Speaker 3: is the opportunity for discussion there. I think absolutely that exists.
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  Speaker 3: And I think that the other problem we've got, and
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  Speaker 3: particularly in a municipality like Joburg, where you could see
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  Speaker 3: the small parties really becoming the kingmakers.
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  Speaker 1: And we've already seen that with al-Jamaa.
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  Speaker 3: Where we had an al-Jamaa mayor in the city of
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  Speaker 3: Joburg with only one seat in the council.
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  Speaker 1: And that's because we don't have a threshold, John.
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  Speaker 3: So in other countries, Israel, for example, has a 5% threshold.
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  Speaker 3: So parties that don't meet the threshold are of 5%
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  Speaker 3: support can't go into a coalition. And we don't have
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: that here. So that means that smaller parties really hold
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  Speaker 3: this kingmaker role. And that means we'll see so much
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  Speaker 3: more horse trading and you'll see parties being willing to
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  Speaker 3: collaborate with each other because there's so much at stake
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  Speaker 3: for the smaller parties. They can be offered MMC positions.
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  Speaker 3: And we've seen that happen with Kenny Kunene as an
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  Speaker 3: example in the city of Joburg. We've seen it happen
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  Speaker 3: with Aljamar, as I mentioned. So I think you'll see
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  Speaker 3: some unlikely bedfellows getting together in the metros.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, the election is just the beginning of
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  Speaker 2: this entire process. But many thanks, Mandy. Of course, you
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  Speaker 2: listen to her every day, Mandy Wiener, between 12 and 1,
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  Speaker 2: that interview she did with Rolf Mayer. You can pick
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: it up on our website, primediaplus.com. And then if you
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  Speaker 2: haven't read The Deal, it is the real deal. It
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  Speaker 2: is a book. subtitled Inside the Talks that Shaped South
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  Speaker 2: Africa's Future. It is fascinating to see how all of
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: those governing arrangements were put together, and I think it
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  Speaker 2: gives real insights into what might happen. Yes, three years on,
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  Speaker 2: but nevertheless, a lot of things have not changed. A
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  Speaker 2: lot of the work that needs doing is going to
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  Speaker 2: be very, very similar indeed. 702 Drive, we thank Mandy
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  Speaker 2: for her time. It's 28 minutes past four.