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US Treasuries Fall on Tariff Signs · Bloomberg Intelligence

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Speaker 2: All right, let's get to the broader market here. You're
0:25
Speaker 2: taking a look at treasuries, still having all the sell
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Speaker 2: off here, yield's really pushing higher. The question is why
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Speaker 2: is it just purely just a risk on trade and
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Speaker 2: then risk off and treasuries. Let's get more with Ira Jersey,
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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate strategistic joining us IRA.
0:38
Speaker 2: When you look at a move like this, is this
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Speaker 2: a purely Hey, tariffs might not be as bad. We're
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Speaker 2: buy inequities, we're selling bonds.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's as simple as that, Alex. At
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Speaker 3: least this morning the headline certainly of the SMP Global
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Speaker 3: pmis also didn't hurt any either. You saw a little
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Speaker 3: bit of a move after that with yields moving up
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Speaker 3: a basis one or two, But generally it's the risk
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Speaker 3: on sentiment right now. And you know, we've been talking
1:02
Speaker 3: about the entire year We're going to have this play between, Look,
1:07
Speaker 3: are we going into a recession anytime soon or is
1:10
Speaker 3: the economy going to hang on just enough that the
1:13
Speaker 3: Fed Reserve is going to be reluctant to cut interest
1:16
Speaker 3: rates because you know, the services sector is doing okay.
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Speaker 3: Plus tariffs might increase inflation expectations. So the market just
1:23
Speaker 3: hovering around this, you know, low four percent range for
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Speaker 3: the tenure yield is probably something that we're going to
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Speaker 3: continue to see for quite a long time.
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Speaker 4: We're going to get some inflation data at the end
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Speaker 4: of this week, Ira, what do you think the how
1:37
Speaker 4: do you think the Fed's looking at this core PCEE
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Speaker 4: data that we'll get on Friday.
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Speaker 3: Well, they like the core PC data. But usually and
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Speaker 3: in the recent past, the forecast has been done a
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Speaker 3: pretty good job in determining where it's going to be,
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Speaker 3: at least within a tenth of a percent. So I
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Speaker 3: suspect that that the market. Yeah, if there's a big surprise,
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Speaker 3: obviously the market will move. But I think we'll move
2:00
Speaker 3: on that and think about next week's non form payroll
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Speaker 3: report and some of the other PMI reports that we
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Speaker 3: get from the US from the Institute of Supply management
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Speaker 3: next week. Those tend to be the bigger movers, right,
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Speaker 3: and the jobs market still is the key, with certainly
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Speaker 3: CPI inflation being number two. Interestingly, when you look at
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Speaker 3: what the ten year yield has been most sensitive to
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Speaker 3: in terms of changes when data points miss, it's always
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Speaker 3: payrolls number one. CPI has been number two, but this
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Speaker 3: pc inflator is all the way down at number seven
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Speaker 3: right now in our list of the top ten, so
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Speaker 3: that's fallen off quite a bit. Retail sales, on the
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Speaker 3: other hand, that's now number three. That had been number
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Speaker 3: two for a long time. But those three are really
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Speaker 3: the data points that you want to focus in on.
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Speaker 3: That's certainly when you see any shifts there, that's when
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Speaker 3: you're going to see big moves in the treasury market.
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Speaker 2: And we get some auctions this week as well, really
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Speaker 2: in the belly of the curve. You had mentioned earlier
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Speaker 2: last week that the ten year had kind of found
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Speaker 2: its high, but we're looking for a bottom. But what
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Speaker 2: does that mean then for the belly.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, so we get twos, fives, and seven So those
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Speaker 3: fives and sevens is distinctively the belly. I actually think
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Speaker 3: tomorrow's two year auction will be maybe the most well
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Speaker 3: bid this year of the this week's auctions, in part
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Speaker 3: because the break even and the risk factors that you
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Speaker 3: can get at a four percent two year yield means
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Speaker 3: that basically yields have to double over the next year
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Speaker 3: for people to start losing money. So you're if you're
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Speaker 3: an investor, whether you're benchmark to some index or you
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Speaker 3: just want to hide somewhere, the two year I think
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Speaker 3: will still get pretty good demand, But those fives and
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Speaker 3: sevens are the question, Alex, and I think that they'll
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Speaker 3: probably do okay. And I'm basing that on the fact
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Speaker 3: that last week's twenty year and the twenty year auctions
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Speaker 3: have not gone particularly well in general over the last
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Speaker 3: couple of years. But last week it was very strong.
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Speaker 3: Auction was one of the strongest twenty year auctions that
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Speaker 3: we've actually had since that point was reintroduced. And so
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Speaker 3: I do think that that fines and sevens this week
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Speaker 3: will probably go okay, particularly if they cheapen up a
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Speaker 3: little bit here over the next forty eight hours.
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Speaker 2: As Paul, have you totally tuned out at this moment
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Speaker 2: because I was talking about auctions.
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Speaker 4: Yes, sweet, I did, absolutely.
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Speaker 5: I feel you, I, but I'm ready to follow up here.
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Speaker 4: What's the soccer match we got to focus on in
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Speaker 4: the next couple of days here? I?
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Speaker 3: Oh, well, I'm still I'm still depressed that the United
4:27
Speaker 3: States came in fourth in the Nations League in over
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Speaker 3: the weekend, losing to both to both Panama and Canada
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Speaker 3: in the consolation game. So you know, ask me later
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Speaker 3: this week and I'll let you know.
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Speaker 4: He got him off his game. All right, Iran, thank
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Speaker 4: you so much. We appreciate it. Ivery Jersey Chief, you
4:44
Speaker 4: wish interest rate strategist, Chief International soccer strategist for bloomerg Intelligence.
4:49
Speaker 4: You wears two hats.
4:50
Speaker 2: There.
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5:15
Speaker 2: and also check us out on YouTube as well. I's
5:18
Speaker 2: got to check in on the markets. We're obviously seeing
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Speaker 2: a relief rally here. It's definitely a risk on kind
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Speaker 2: of day. Does it last? What do you do with it?
5:24
Speaker 2: Danian Dioria is co chief investment officer at Investment, joining
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Speaker 2: us now from Hartford Data. Is this the kind of
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Speaker 2: day that you sell into rallies or do you feel like,
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Speaker 2: all right, things are going to.
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Speaker 1: Go well well?
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Speaker 6: I mean, you know, the obviously the correction that preceded
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Speaker 6: all of this was a lot more sentiment driven, I
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Speaker 6: think than fundamentals driven. And so you know, if you're
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Speaker 6: going to be trading on any of these moves in
5:47
Speaker 6: the market, you know, any of the hey, now we're
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Speaker 6: going to have a.
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Speaker 5: Lot of tear ffs, no apso we're cutting back. It's
5:53
Speaker 5: going to be the dirty fifteen. It's not going to
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Speaker 5: be everybody, et cetera.
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Speaker 6: Then yeah, this is probably a buying moment I think
5:59
Speaker 6: for the app person. You know, in the average investor,
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Speaker 6: it's more about what are the fundamentals here? Do we
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Speaker 6: actually think you know, the kind of the tariff tantrum
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Speaker 6: that we're going through and have been going through and
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Speaker 6: will continue to you know, in spite of a little
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Speaker 6: bit of positive news on that front, you know, is
6:17
Speaker 6: that is that something that's going to ultimately lead to
6:21
Speaker 6: broader concerns in the market. And you know, look, corrections
6:24
Speaker 6: three quarters of the time don't lead to recessions. But
6:28
Speaker 6: you know, a lot of it depends on what news
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Speaker 6: is yet.
6:31
Speaker 5: To come.
6:34
Speaker 4: For a world where there is some level of uncertainly
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Speaker 4: maybe greater than average. Is it a way you construct
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Speaker 4: your portfolio, is how you allocate your assets or just
6:46
Speaker 4: buy quality and I guess hope for the best.
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Speaker 5: Yeah.
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Speaker 6: So I mean, look, there's a there's a lot of
6:51
Speaker 6: different ways you can kind of come at this. Certainly,
6:54
Speaker 6: and we sit you know, investments, it's at the junction
6:56
Speaker 6: of a lot of manager there's.
6:57
Speaker 5: A lot of research services.
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Speaker 6: I mean, certainly you're hearing a lot more international speak.
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Speaker 6: You know, obviously I came into this year, I'll be
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Speaker 6: honest with you. We do these chief Investment Officer panels everywhere,
7:09
Speaker 6: and the idea of US dominance was just you know,
7:13
Speaker 6: very much a theme at these panels. And you know, look,
7:16
Speaker 6: markets are cyclical, and certainly the US markets had much
7:20
Speaker 6: higher valuations than international markets.
7:22
Speaker 5: I think you're seeing some repricing of that now.
7:25
Speaker 6: But you know, the tone has shifted, right, and you're
7:28
Speaker 6: hearing more around well, hey, maybe international diversification is a
7:32
Speaker 6: good idea in portfolios. We would say that's a long
7:35
Speaker 6: run secular asset allocation need you know, for most people, right,
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Speaker 6: unless you're unless you're completely focused on US indexes and
7:43
Speaker 6: can't handle the tracking error, we would largely say be
7:46
Speaker 6: diverse bied international markets.
7:47
Speaker 5: Anyway, we are certainly.
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Speaker 6: Hearing more now even from a news and macro perspective,
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Speaker 6: that looking at international you know, having diversification away from
7:56
Speaker 6: US makes sense.
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Speaker 2: And does that do you have to sell something to
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Speaker 2: then buy or is this like, hey, I had some cash,
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Speaker 2: I'm going to deploy.
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Speaker 5: Well, you know, that's a great question because of course.
8:06
Speaker 6: We've been living in the last few years with this
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Speaker 6: massive amount of money sitting in cash. And while it's great,
8:13
Speaker 6: you know, we're past these years of financial repression for
8:16
Speaker 6: just savers.
8:17
Speaker 5: We all know that, you know that kind of.
8:19
Speaker 6: The traditional wisdom is unless it's money you need in
8:21
Speaker 6: the next three years.
8:22
Speaker 5: It's probably better served than sitting in cash.
8:25
Speaker 6: So there are certainly people with money on the sidelines
8:28
Speaker 6: who they've missed, you know, whopping twenty plus percent two
8:31
Speaker 6: years in a row from the S and P for example,
8:33
Speaker 6: And as we all know, you know, it's time in
8:36
Speaker 6: the market, right, if you're missing those big months, years,
8:39
Speaker 6: et cetera, it's really hard to make that back up
8:41
Speaker 6: when you look at the average that.
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Speaker 5: You accumulate over time.
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Speaker 6: So look, if you if you have long run money
8:46
Speaker 6: sitting in cash, for sure, we would say put that
8:49
Speaker 6: into a balanced portfolio. But the other side of the
8:52
Speaker 6: coin is you've also got a lot of people who
8:53
Speaker 6: leaned into stocks, right, very pro growth optimism that we
8:57
Speaker 6: started the year. You know, obviously big run up, especially
9:01
Speaker 6: driven by growth, and so you have people who are
9:03
Speaker 6: overweight equities. And if your overweight equities relative to your
9:06
Speaker 6: risk tolerance and what you can handle, you know, you
9:08
Speaker 6: should be thinking about harvesting from the equity position if
9:12
Speaker 6: you're doing more equity, and you should also be thinking
9:14
Speaker 6: about getting more into fixed income.
9:16
Speaker 4: Well, in your notes, you've got bitcoin is no gold,
9:18
Speaker 4: So let me get your thoughts on bitcoin.
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Speaker 6: Yeah, you know it's bitcoin is one dred percent from
9:26
Speaker 6: my perspective, a risk on speculative asset. I we read
9:29
Speaker 6: and you know you're seeing headlines obviously now comparing kind
9:33
Speaker 6: of the performance of bitcoin and gold are these places
9:35
Speaker 6: to kind of hot out, say again, good, thank you? Yeah,
9:41
Speaker 6: so so so look are these places to hide out?
9:43
Speaker 6: And we would just very much point out that they
9:45
Speaker 6: are massively different. You know, when people think about a
9:48
Speaker 6: bitcoin investment, they're not thinking about it a as a
9:51
Speaker 6: currency or b as you know, certainly you know, there's
9:54
Speaker 6: an argument that this is another form it's digital gold,
9:58
Speaker 6: but from the standpoint of the volatility of these assets,
10:00
Speaker 6: there's no comparison.
10:02
Speaker 5: And when you're thinking about bitcoin, it's really kind.
10:04
Speaker 6: Of more this asymmetric payoff, the potential for sort of
10:07
Speaker 6: like a lott of like return.
10:09
Speaker 5: If you want.
10:09
Speaker 6: That, that's fine, But thinking that it looks like gold
10:13
Speaker 6: and is going to be a safe haven asset I
10:15
Speaker 6: think doesn't work.
10:17
Speaker 2: Okay, So that kind of lined me up for the
10:19
Speaker 2: safe haven part. So all this taking into effect what's
10:22
Speaker 2: like your best safe haven trade right now?
10:26
Speaker 6: Certainly fixed income, you know, the standard place to have
10:29
Speaker 6: ballast in the portfolio, I think makes a lot.
10:31
Speaker 5: Of sense still.
10:32
Speaker 6: You know, but if you're talking about with inequity markets,
10:35
Speaker 6: you started off there actually mentioned quality.
10:37
Speaker 5: There's a couple of different ways to go after quality.
10:39
Speaker 6: You can do you know, traditional quality is a fundamental indicator.
10:42
Speaker 6: You're looking for stocks that or you know, frankly ETFs
10:46
Speaker 6: or mutual funds with a bevy of stocks that have
10:50
Speaker 6: high quality earnings, right, so high profitability, you know, not
10:54
Speaker 6: the need to reinvest plow a lot of money back in,
10:57
Speaker 6: you know, and also probably you know, cash based earnings
11:01
Speaker 6: more than a cruel based earnings. So that's one indicator.
11:04
Speaker 6: Another is more technical indicator, of course, which is just
11:07
Speaker 6: what is the volatility of that stock? And you've got
11:10
Speaker 6: a lot of ways to make that play to the
11:12
Speaker 6: traditional defensive sort of you can pick low volatility stocks,
11:16
Speaker 6: or you can pick kind of minimum variants where you know,
11:18
Speaker 6: the stock itself maybe is not the lowest volatility, but
11:21
Speaker 6: it doesn't correlate well with the rest of the market,
11:23
Speaker 6: so it adds sort of padding to the rest of
11:25
Speaker 6: the portfolio.
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Speaker 2: That's a really good point, all right, Dana, Thanks Slot.
11:28
Speaker 2: We really appreciated Dana Diyoria, a CoA Chief investment officer
11:31
Speaker 2: at Investnet joining us on the markets.
11:35
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
11:38
Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
11:42
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg business app listen on demand wherever you
11:45
Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch US live on YouTube.
11:48
Speaker 2: The other wild carbon than the Trump administration is how
11:51
Speaker 2: the talks unfold when it comes to peace between Russia
11:54
Speaker 2: and Ukraine. Apparently US and Russian officials are meeting in
11:57
Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia to discuss a potential CEA spot in the war,
12:01
Speaker 2: and this of course follows talks between the American and
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Speaker 2: Ukrainian teams joining US now. As Roz mathis and Bloomberg
12:06
Speaker 2: News director for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Roz,
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Speaker 2: what do you know in terms of where the talks
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Speaker 2: are well?
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Speaker 7: As you were saying, we had talks initially between the
12:15
Speaker 7: US and Ukraine officials in Saudi Arabia. Now we've got
12:19
Speaker 7: talks that have been going on today between the US
12:22
Speaker 7: and Russia, and they seem to be really granular and
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Speaker 7: quite technical in nature, focused on some specifics around perhaps
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Speaker 7: getting agreement for ceaespar and maritime traffic in the Black Sea,
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Speaker 7: for example. We're not getting a lot of redoubts at
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Speaker 7: the moment from those conversations, so they seem to have
12:41
Speaker 7: gone into a bit of a quiet phase on it,
12:44
Speaker 7: at least with each other. But the sense is they're
12:47
Speaker 7: going bit by bit and this idea of a ceasefi
12:50
Speaker 7: in Ukraine. We had that conversation aitially around in a
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Speaker 7: CESFI fit not hitting each other's energy infrastructure even though
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Speaker 7: attack seemingly are still going on in the minute. And
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Speaker 7: now we've got conversations around how to get you know,
13:04
Speaker 7: guarantees around traffic, maritime traffic in the Black Sea. But
13:08
Speaker 7: the big one, of course is what to do where
13:11
Speaker 7: people are actually fighting along the line of contact, which
13:14
Speaker 7: is a very long line on the side of Ukraine,
13:19
Speaker 7: and what to do there in terms of bringing the
13:21
Speaker 7: fighting to a holt. There doesn't seem to be any
13:23
Speaker 7: particular developments on that front so far. So the message
13:26
Speaker 7: really that we're getting is that even though the US
13:28
Speaker 7: President clearly wants a very quick ceasefire here, that there's
13:32
Speaker 7: a lot of steps that need to happen, a lot
13:34
Speaker 7: of complexity along the way.
13:36
Speaker 4: And rise as you point out, the US administration certainly
13:39
Speaker 4: hopes for a Ukraine piece deal, but it doesn't seem
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Speaker 4: like Vladimir Putin is in any hurry here. What do
13:46
Speaker 4: we know about his thinking?
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Speaker 7: Well, that's right, I mean, obviously he's willing to have
13:51
Speaker 7: conversations and perhaps even a direct meeting with the US
13:55
Speaker 7: President with Donald Trump at some point in the near future,
13:58
Speaker 7: perhaps in a place like Arabia again. But he's made
14:02
Speaker 7: it really clear, and that's by our own reporting and
14:04
Speaker 7: our own sourcing as well, is that he's got Maximum's
14:07
Speaker 7: demands here and he's not going to shave those down
14:10
Speaker 7: in any great hurry. These are things that he says
14:12
Speaker 7: that he insists need to happen for there to be
14:16
Speaker 7: a cease fire moving towards a more permanent deal, and
14:20
Speaker 7: those are essentially red lines that are not that great
14:22
Speaker 7: for Ukraine in all of this, in terms of his
14:25
Speaker 7: territorial demands to make sure that Ukraine can never join NATO,
14:29
Speaker 7: for example, to really know confence Ukraine in and whether
14:34
Speaker 7: those are just demands that he gets traction on with
14:37
Speaker 7: Donald Trump and the US in the end that are
14:41
Speaker 7: detrimental to Ukraine. So he's not in any great hurry
14:44
Speaker 7: here to get to a ceaspar final dear, He's obviously
14:48
Speaker 7: open to talking, but the position from Russia has been
14:51
Speaker 7: very clear. They've got demands and they want them met.
14:53
Speaker 2: What about Europe? Where's Europe right now? In during these conversations,
14:59
Speaker 2: still trying to get in the door, it seems from
15:01
Speaker 2: the conversation in a fulsome way at least.
15:04
Speaker 7: I mean, obviously we've had a lot of meetings that
15:06
Speaker 7: have gone on just at the EU level lately, including
15:09
Speaker 7: last week, and Ealy is having another call this week.
15:12
Speaker 7: We know that again the US pent the UK Prime
15:15
Speaker 7: Minister rather talked with Donald Trump yet again. So a
15:18
Speaker 7: lot of conversations going on, and the message from Europe
15:22
Speaker 7: is we need to be part of the discussion around
15:24
Speaker 7: a CEASPA, and Ukraine's interesting to be represented, but it's
15:28
Speaker 7: very clear that they know they're struggling to get a
15:32
Speaker 7: seat at the table and that Donald Trump is not
15:34
Speaker 7: particularly interested in giving them one at the table, let
15:37
Speaker 7: alone giving Ukraine a proper seat at the table. And
15:41
Speaker 7: so for Europe the challenge is getting their voice is heard,
15:44
Speaker 7: or showing that they're there and able to pick up
15:46
Speaker 7: some of the slack potentially and supporting Ukraine.
15:49
Speaker 4: Roz Is there any sense of timing when this could
15:52
Speaker 4: come together? Is there any consensus building out there?
15:56
Speaker 7: Well, it's very hard to say, because again these talks
15:59
Speaker 7: that are going on at the moment seemed to have
16:00
Speaker 7: been very technical in nature and very specific around detail.
16:04
Speaker 7: So are we getting the little pieces of the chessboard
16:07
Speaker 7: towards a bigger CEASPA at some point? Imagine? The key
16:12
Speaker 7: thing is whether there's an agreement to have further rounds
16:14
Speaker 7: of talks within a matter of days or at least
16:17
Speaker 7: towards the end.
16:19
Speaker 8: Of this week.
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Speaker 7: And at what point can that build to a direct
16:21
Speaker 7: meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, possibly as soon
16:25
Speaker 7: as next month. I mean, obviously Donald Trump keeps saying
16:28
Speaker 7: Easter as a timeline. He wants something by Easter. But
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Speaker 7: what exactly he would be happy to get by easter?
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Speaker 7: Is it a partial ceasepar again around energy, or perhaps
16:38
Speaker 7: maritime traffic in the Black Sea as a springboard to
16:42
Speaker 7: something else. So we're likely to get a full throat
16:45
Speaker 7: at CSPA either way, at least in the next couple
16:48
Speaker 7: of weeks.
16:48
Speaker 2: All right, Ros, thanks a lot, We really appreciate it.
16:51
Speaker 2: Ras Mathison joining us on the talks between Russia and
16:54
Speaker 2: the US on Ukraine. All right, some breaking news for you,
16:57
Speaker 2: ASHALLMI is said to raise about five point five billion
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Speaker 2: Coming up R J. Gallows, Senior portfolio manager Fixed and
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Speaker 2: come at Federate Hermes will be joining us on the
17:35
Speaker 2: fixed income space. We get two fives and tens later
17:38
Speaker 2: on this week. A lot of supply coming online there.
17:42
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17:46
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17:56
Speaker 4: Switch over to the EV business interest story out there
18:01
Speaker 4: that's really been rocking. I think the EV business that's
18:03
Speaker 4: byd you know, saying they've gon have a five minute
18:06
Speaker 4: charging system that is a game changer if that is
18:09
Speaker 4: in fact the case. Let's check in with bn EF
18:11
Speaker 4: folks here b n EF. They cover all the energy
18:15
Speaker 4: industry head to toe. Alex's b but they've got all
18:19
Speaker 4: the data, all the analysis. Great stuff. Ryan Fisher joins
18:21
Speaker 4: us Bloomberg bn EF EV Charging team leader. So Ryan,
18:25
Speaker 4: talk to us about this by d story as relates
18:29
Speaker 4: to this fast charger.
18:31
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean this has just come out of nowhere.
18:33
Speaker 9: In some ways, we had the portions of this world
18:37
Speaker 9: doing charging three fifty KILLOW. This is a thousand killer
18:40
Speaker 9: what we were three to four times the kind of
18:42
Speaker 9: other best in class that people were expecting when we
18:45
Speaker 9: talk about five minutes. Obviously, that's similar to gasoline for
18:49
Speaker 9: four hundred kilometers of charge. Some of the others are
18:52
Speaker 9: more like the best in class. Lucid obviously is quite famous.
18:55
Speaker 9: They're doing it in like one hundred maybe one hundred
18:58
Speaker 9: and eighty kilometers in that time.
19:00
Speaker 8: This is a real step change.
19:01
Speaker 9: And not only is it that, what you've got is
19:03
Speaker 9: an announcement and they're going to do it, going to
19:06
Speaker 9: make the vehicles available a month later. So typically you
19:08
Speaker 9: might hear an announcement from a Western automaker and maybe
19:11
Speaker 9: a couple of years later that tech you've heard about
19:13
Speaker 9: will be there. Whereas they're saying these vehicles in China,
19:15
Speaker 9: you'll be able to buy them soon, but yeah, that
19:17
Speaker 9: is only in China.
19:18
Speaker 2: How how did they get it down to five minutes?
19:22
Speaker 9: So it seems like they've improved the fast charging technology
19:26
Speaker 9: through both the voltage so you have higher voltage on
19:29
Speaker 9: the vehicles, you could lower the current or the current
19:32
Speaker 9: to accept this power, and then changing the battery chemistry
19:36
Speaker 9: as well.
19:37
Speaker 8: So the interesting thing is.
19:38
Speaker 9: That they've added different types of calling because if you
19:41
Speaker 9: have really high currents going through the battery, then you
19:44
Speaker 9: have a lot of heat.
19:44
Speaker 8: Being created, so they've changed their cooling technology.
19:47
Speaker 9: They've improved some of the other intricacies of the sales
19:49
Speaker 9: as well. And on a bigger market point, you've got
19:52
Speaker 9: a lot of companies saying we're going to build solid
19:53
Speaker 9: state batteries, so like next generation battery technologies for the car, Well,
19:58
Speaker 9: is that even needed any more? Or if BYD can
20:01
Speaker 9: do this with an evolution of the current tech.
20:04
Speaker 4: So what can be what likely will be the competitive
20:09
Speaker 4: response from the Western battery infrastructure people. They got to
20:13
Speaker 4: up their game, like now don't they.
20:15
Speaker 8: Yeah, it's just such a race.
20:19
Speaker 9: Like you look at these evs and you think about
20:20
Speaker 9: buying one, and there's just something new coming that's more advanced,
20:24
Speaker 9: one after the other. So like as a consumer, maybe
20:26
Speaker 9: you don't want to buy because you think, well, I'm
20:28
Speaker 9: going to buy something that'd be absollete pretty quick. From
20:32
Speaker 9: the Western automakers, they're going to find it hard. You
20:34
Speaker 9: look at BYD they've just got so many engineers, they're
20:37
Speaker 9: vertically integrated. They're doing much of this by themselves, all
20:41
Speaker 9: the way down to now buying the ships to distribute
20:44
Speaker 9: these cars they've built around the world and getting involved
20:47
Speaker 9: in the metals and mining game and things like that.
20:50
Speaker 9: So it's hard to imagine how everybody is going to compete. Obviously,
20:54
Speaker 9: we've got tariffs in different regions to try and block
20:57
Speaker 9: the Chinese out, and then when you think about this tech,
21:00
Speaker 9: there is an element of do you actually need it?
21:02
Speaker 9: So when you look on the Chinese articles, they were
21:07
Speaker 9: looking at the JAOMIU Su seven, which is the vehicle
21:10
Speaker 9: made by the Jami, which is the smartphone maker. So
21:14
Speaker 9: they've entered the market and they're selling electric vehicles and
21:16
Speaker 9: the hundreds of thousands of volume. They've outsold loads of cars.
21:20
Speaker 9: It's kind of an amazing story, and people comparing saying, well, actually,
21:24
Speaker 9: this one BYD is talking about is ten thousand dollars
21:26
Speaker 9: more expensive. So like the tech is not necessarily everything
21:31
Speaker 9: on fast charging when there's people who are doing I
21:34
Speaker 9: don't know, fast cars.
21:35
Speaker 8: Fancy cars.
21:36
Speaker 9: They've got a lot of other features as well, like
21:38
Speaker 9: whilst this is a step change, do we necessarily need
21:41
Speaker 9: five minutes over ten minutes?
21:42
Speaker 8: Does everybody care? It's debatable.
21:44
Speaker 2: I mean it depends how long your bathroom break is,
21:46
Speaker 2: which you know you got a shot some concessions. Okay.
21:50
Speaker 2: We also had the headline that BYD is out selling
21:54
Speaker 2: Tesla's in China. In particular, you can't get a BYD
21:56
Speaker 2: car in the US, I should point that out. And
21:58
Speaker 2: the BYD sales for this year about five to six
22:01
Speaker 2: million cars. So is this five minute battery like a
22:06
Speaker 2: big selling point for this in comparison to say a
22:09
Speaker 2: Tesla or no?
22:11
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think so.
22:12
Speaker 9: And then in China what you've got is I think
22:14
Speaker 9: last year BID saw something like one point six million
22:17
Speaker 9: pure battery election because just the battery powers the car,
22:20
Speaker 9: and I think Tesla was somewhere around six hundred thousand
22:22
Speaker 9: to seven hundred thousand.
22:23
Speaker 8: So it gives you, and they were seconds.
22:24
Speaker 9: It gives you an idea Tesla doing well, but obviously
22:27
Speaker 9: just how well BYD are doing one of the things
22:29
Speaker 9: BYD had been leaning into previously with these plug.
22:32
Speaker 8: In hybrid models. So you have an engine and you
22:34
Speaker 8: have a battery.
22:35
Speaker 9: The engine might only be small and the car itself
22:38
Speaker 9: might be mainly running off the battery. So they've done
22:41
Speaker 9: quite well with those, and it might just show a
22:43
Speaker 9: little bit of a pivot from them to say, actually,
22:45
Speaker 9: we can.
22:45
Speaker 8: Maybe do without the engine. Now, look we've got this.
22:48
Speaker 9: Huge range, huge huge, huge range, fast charging power vehicles
22:54
Speaker 9: like you don't necessarily need.
22:55
Speaker 8: To worry about that.
22:56
Speaker 9: Also, it might be a pivot from them in terms
22:58
Speaker 9: of Tesla versus BYD when you said that they're not
23:01
Speaker 9: available in the US.
23:02
Speaker 8: But they are available in other regions.
23:04
Speaker 9: So they've done very well in places like Brazil and Thailand.
23:07
Speaker 9: There's something like eighty ninety percent share of the EV
23:10
Speaker 9: market there, and like eighteen ninety percent share is obviously
23:13
Speaker 9: huge for the So that's just that's Chinese manufacturers, with
23:17
Speaker 9: which Bwide is pretty major one they've got to plant
23:19
Speaker 9: out in Brazil as well, so they're making moves to
23:22
Speaker 9: kind of dominate those The charging tech could be part
23:25
Speaker 9: of that too. So the interesting thing is, like we've
23:27
Speaker 9: had these like charging connector wars. Do you have the
23:29
Speaker 9: Tesla connector do you have the connector that all the
23:32
Speaker 9: other manufacturers are using? And in Europe all the other
23:35
Speaker 9: manufacturers won out. In America, Tesla went out well. Arguably
23:38
Speaker 9: in some of these kind of smaller merging markets, this
23:41
Speaker 9: that you could end up with the Chinese connector becoming
23:45
Speaker 9: an interesting proposition and maybe the Chinese automotive industry will
23:49
Speaker 9: think about that. And it doesn't mean that they've got
23:51
Speaker 9: it so far, but if they're selling the most cars
23:53
Speaker 9: and they've got the most advanced charging tech, then maybe
23:55
Speaker 9: that's the way.
23:55
Speaker 8: That they can exert more influence over the rest of
23:57
Speaker 8: the world.
23:58
Speaker 2: Hi, Ryan really appreciate it. Ryan Fisher is EV Charging
24:02
Speaker 2: team leader. That basically means he heads up all the
24:04
Speaker 2: coverage when it comes to EV charging at Bloomberg BNF,
24:08
Speaker 2: and as Paul was saying earlier, Bloomberg EF covers pretty
24:12
Speaker 2: much everything commodities, power, transport, industry, buildings and ad sectors,
24:16
Speaker 2: all to help with the energy transition and some hard
24:19
Speaker 2: data there.
24:20
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