Latest / Inside Politics / A 2024 fire sale, ‘something big’ needed on cost of living

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A 2024 fire sale, ‘something big’ needed on cost of living · Inside Politics

0:02
S1: From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
0:05
S1: This is inside politics. I'm Jacqueline Maley. It's Friday, November 29th. Well,
0:12
S1: it's all over. This week was the last sitting week
0:16
S1: of the parliamentary year. There is speculation the Prime Minister
0:19
S1: will call an election early in 2025, meaning it might
0:23
S1: have been the last parliamentary session of the Albanese government.
0:26
S1: Full stop. So what legislation did the government get through
0:29
S1: this week? And more broadly, how well positioned is it
0:32
S1: going into an imminent election campaign? Has the Dutton led
0:37
S1: opposition done enough to make itself a credible alternative to
0:40
S1: the labor government? This week, we dive into the state
0:44
S1: of play at the end of 2024, pushing into an
0:46
S1: election year. Joining me to discuss is the globe trotting
0:51
S1: David Crowe, our chief political correspondent, who is back from
0:54
S1: his South America jaunt to various summits with the Prime minister.
0:58
S1: Welcome home to the pod, David.
1:00
S2: It is very, very good to be back. Jackie.
1:07
S1: David, before we get into anything, I just wanted to
1:09
S1: ask you a little side question about travelling with the
1:11
S1: Prime Minister. I just wanted to get a sense of
1:13
S1: how Anthony Albanese handles these international summits. Like, does he
1:17
S1: seem comfortable in the role of international diplomat? Is it
1:20
S1: possible to get a sense of the leaders that he
1:22
S1: has a rapport with? What's his sort of level of
1:25
S1: competence and comfort in those in those environments?
1:28
S2: He's quite relaxed, quite personable. He gets along well with
1:32
S2: people like Joe Biden as US president. They've had a
1:34
S2: good relationship ever since Anthony Albanese was elected prime minister.
1:38
S2: They met within days of the last election. Justin Trudeau,
1:42
S2: he gets along with, you can see from the way
1:46
S2: the summits go that he has very cheerful, joking conversations
1:51
S2: with people like Emmanuel Macron. The French president mixes with
1:57
S2: the group. Well, he had what looks like a fairly
2:01
S2: relaxed conversation in the group sessions with Chinese President XI Jinping. Yeah,
2:07
S2: he can have fairly relaxed conversations with most leaders there.
2:11
S2: There's nobody in that group where there's a strained relationship
2:14
S2: at the moment. Yeah.
2:15
S1: Not at the moment. It's fascinating. Thank you for that.
2:17
S1: And now heading back home. Let's talk about the final
2:21
S1: parliamentary sitting week. It was obviously the last of the year.
2:24
S1: And the government had a lot of legislation that wanted
2:26
S1: to push through. It was like a, you know, like
2:28
S1: a fire sale. Everything must go. So what did the
2:31
S1: government get done this week, David?
2:33
S2: Well, it's made a lot of progress, mainly on housing. Well, thousands.
2:37
S3: Of first home buyers are closer than ever to co
2:39
S3: purchasing a property with the government.
2:41
S4: The labor is on the up, reveling in yesterday's win
2:45
S4: on housing policy.
2:47
S5: We've laid the foundations for a big change to how
2:49
S5: housing works in our country. We are going to need
2:52
S5: a second term to continue that critical work.
2:54
S4: And the government?
2:55
S2: It wanted the week to be about things that matter
2:58
S2: to ordinary folks in the real world, and so it
3:00
S2: really needed an outcome on housing and it held the line.
3:04
S2: The Greens accepted that they should help there.
3:06
S6: Today, the Greens can announce that we'll be waiving through
3:10
S6: Labour's two housing bills after accepting.
3:13
S2: So housing was probably, I think, the biggest success. The
3:16
S2: government's also got a deal with the coalition on social
3:20
S2: media age, the the age limit of 16. Now that's
3:23
S2: becoming more controversial the more people look at it.
3:26
S7: Mental health advocates have warned lawmakers of potentially devastating consequences
3:31
S7: for our kids if the planned age restrictions for social
3:34
S7: media are bungled.
3:36
S2: But there's an outcome the government can point to, a
3:39
S2: result it's made some progress on the future Made in
3:42
S2: Australia package. It's also got, you know, progress in its
3:47
S2: mind on migration because it's got three bills agreed with
3:52
S2: the coalition, rushed through the Senate to the dismay of
3:55
S2: the Greens and the crossbench. But it's done. And the
3:58
S2: government wants to go to the next election with a
4:01
S2: position on migration that is firmer. Yeah. I mean, I
4:05
S2: think this is part of something that's happening around the world.
4:08
S2: At the same time, they had to acknowledge that they
4:10
S2: couldn't get enough progress on donations, law reform, on the
4:13
S2: nature positive package. But and some things like tax credits
4:18
S2: for miners, they're quite comfortable with not getting done this year.
4:24
S2: They actually want a debate about it next year because
4:27
S2: this is where they think they're wrong foot in the coalition.
4:30
S2: We'll see how that plays out at the election. But
4:32
S2: labor is saying we're giving a tax credit to miners
4:35
S2: in Western Australia. Peter Dutton is denying that benefit. And
4:39
S2: they're hoping that that will hurt Peter Dutton in those
4:41
S2: West Australian seats. Yeah.
4:44
S1: In terms of things they don't want to talk about,
4:46
S1: they've obviously delayed their gambling advertising legislation. They've just sort
4:49
S1: of put that in the too hard basket and they've
4:52
S1: dumped their misinformation disinformation bill. Is that right?
4:55
S2: Yes. So there are things where they said they would
4:58
S2: move and they've been unable to move. And I think
5:01
S2: that highlights this big question of are they simply too slow?
5:07
S2: They now find at the end of 2024 they're just
5:11
S2: not getting things moving through fast enough. They can blame
5:15
S2: the Senate sometimes, but a lot of the timing is
5:18
S2: up to them and misinformation. They couldn't get it nailed
5:21
S2: down and they've dropped it. And gambling. They didn't even
5:24
S2: put a bill to parliament because they just couldn't commit.
5:29
S2: And that looks like weakness to gambling advertising reform advocates.
5:33
S1: Yeah, I mean, it's particularly odd given that Albanese, of course,
5:37
S1: in the past has been manager of opposition business and
5:39
S1: management of government business in the House. So he's he's
5:41
S1: the guy who pushed stuff through and got stuff done.
5:44
S1: I want to talk about housing legislation, first of all,
5:46
S1: because as you say, it was the government's big win,
5:48
S1: the build to rent and the rent to buy schemes,
5:51
S1: which are easily confused. This was a big capitulation from
5:56
S1: the Greens, wasn't it? Why did the Greens back down
5:58
S1: and decide to support this after all?
6:01
S2: I think the key admission from the Greens is that
6:03
S2: from here on, they're going to campaign to prevent Peter
6:07
S2: Dutton becoming prime minister for a lot of this year.
6:11
S2: The arguments in Parliament have all been about the Greens
6:14
S2: versus labor. It's been about the Greens criticising labor much
6:20
S2: more so than the coalition. And there's this been there's
6:22
S2: been this perception that it's much more about the fight
6:25
S2: between those two parties. And that can cost labor government
6:29
S2: at the next election. And that becomes a very dangerous
6:31
S2: scenario for Adam Bandt as the Greens leader. If he
6:34
S2: suddenly is put in a position where it looks like
6:37
S2: he's actually undermining the ability of either the Greens or
6:41
S2: Labor to make headway at the next election, and he's
6:43
S2: actually helping the conservative side of politics. So there's this
6:47
S2: strategic decision. We will accept what the government is being
6:51
S2: put forward on housing and that will go through. Now,
6:54
S2: bear in mind there's another aspect of it. The two
6:57
S2: bills have some practical benefits on housing. The Greens objected
7:03
S2: to them, not because there was anything in the bills
7:05
S2: themselves that they really, really disliked. They just wanted a
7:09
S2: rent freeze and a massive new government agency to build
7:13
S2: more homes, things that weren't in the bill. So they
7:16
S2: used the stalling of the bills to argue about other things.
7:21
S2: And I think that tactic only works for a certain
7:24
S2: amount of time. I was surprised, actually, two months ago
7:27
S2: when the Greens voted with the coalition to delay these
7:30
S2: housing bills. Again, the two months have passed with no change,
7:34
S2: no result, just more argument. And I think that actually
7:38
S2: was starting to really hurt the greens.
7:40
S1: I mean, up until a point, because before that point
7:42
S1: they were able to posture and pose themselves as the
7:45
S1: sort of, you know, the party that cared about these
7:47
S1: issues and deeply wanted a result for people who are
7:50
S1: struggling with housing affordability. Let's move quickly to the social
7:54
S1: media under 16 seconds ban, because that was sort of,
7:57
S1: you know, almost universally sort of supported, not quite, but almost.
8:01
S1: It won't come into force for another year. So the
8:03
S1: cynic in me says, okay, Anthony Albanese gets a win.
8:06
S1: He gets to go to the next election saying, look
8:09
S1: at me. Parents of Australia, I've done this to protect
8:11
S1: your children. But then he doesn't actually have to face
8:15
S1: any questions or criticisms about when the ban is actually implemented.
8:18
S1: And it might have, you know, there might be a
8:19
S1: lot of problems with implementing it. Is that me being
8:22
S1: too cynical?
8:23
S2: No. I think the cynicism is justified, even though, you know,
8:28
S2: I've certainly read some of the work about young Australians
8:33
S2: and mental health and social media, and I think there's
8:37
S2: a legitimate debate about what should be done. But here
8:41
S2: we've got a bill that doesn't tell us technically how
8:44
S2: it's going to be done. It's got the broad objective
8:47
S2: of the age 16 being the cut off age and
8:51
S2: everybody younger than that being banned. Social media companies are
8:55
S2: expected to implement that, but we don't know how the
9:00
S2: detail is going to be worked out over the next year.
9:03
S2: So yes, Anthony Albanese goes to the election telling parents
9:07
S2: I've acted on this. In reality, he lifted the policy
9:11
S2: from the coalition because they were out earlier. And on
9:15
S2: this podcast, you know, a while back we had David
9:17
S2: Coleman from the liberals talking about why he had come
9:20
S2: up with this idea. It's now been borrowed or stolen
9:23
S2: by labor to put into practice, but it goes through
9:27
S2: with bipartisan support. But it has been interesting that on
9:30
S2: the crossbench, people who liked it, like Andrew Wilkie, have
9:34
S2: admitted to Backflipping and now have reservations about it. And
9:39
S2: people in the coalition emerged very late in the day.
9:42
S2: Only a couple, but including Bridget Archer from Tasmania, to say,
9:47
S2: hang on a minute, we're not sure this is going
9:48
S2: to work. So the more people look at it, the
9:51
S2: more they have questions about the practical aspect of it.
9:53
S2: Even though I think there's very broad consensus that the
9:57
S2: social dangers are there and the social dangers need some
10:00
S2: kind of response.
10:01
S1: Yeah. I mean, it's world leading legislation in the sense
10:04
S1: that no one else in the world has tried to
10:05
S1: do this right to, to, to to institute a ban
10:08
S1: and basically put the onus on the big tech giants
10:11
S1: to police it. And Elon Musk himself, you know, the
10:14
S1: owner of Twitter or now X has come out and
10:17
S1: criticized it, right.
10:18
S2: Yeah. And of course, I mean, the vested interests of
10:22
S2: the social media world are going to argue against it
10:24
S2: and say it's unworkable. But I think this is a
10:27
S2: classic example where sovereign governments have to assert authority to
10:33
S2: private industry players to tell them things have got to change.
10:37
S2: Whether this change will work is a technical issue. But
10:42
S2: there are also moves in some of the US states,
10:45
S2: for instance, to try and act in a similar way.
10:48
S2: So I think it's part of a move in countries
10:52
S2: around the world to try and get an outcome, but
10:56
S2: it'll suffer from being a kind of a patchwork where
10:59
S2: every jurisdiction seems to be trying something different. Yeah. And
11:02
S2: I guess there'll be this level of brinksmanship next year
11:05
S2: when somebody like a group led by Mark Zuckerberg might say, look, sorry,
11:10
S2: this isn't going to work. We're pulling out of Australia.
11:12
S1: Yeah. All eyes will be on Australia then. But Anthony
11:15
S1: Albanese doesn't have to worry about it until after the election.
11:29
S1: I want to zoom out and talk more generally about
11:31
S1: how well placed the government and the opposition is to
11:33
S1: enter an election season. Let's go to the government first.
11:36
S1: Has this been a good week for them in that
11:38
S1: sense that they can go, okay, we've cleared the decks,
11:40
S1: we're ready to go. We've got all these wins on
11:42
S1: the scoreboard.
11:43
S2: I think housing is a good outcome for them and
11:45
S2: probably social media too, in terms of having an outcome.
11:49
S2: But I think a lot of this week is a blur.
11:52
S2: And bear in mind, it's also been about this at times,
11:55
S2: very ugly debate in the Senate with Lidia Thorpe, Fatima Payman,
11:59
S2: Pauline Hanson and so forth.
12:01
S8: Senator Hanson has worn the burqa in this place. Maybe
12:04
S8: it's time that she pack her burqa and go to
12:07
S8: Afghanistan and talk to the Taliban. If that is not.
12:10
S9: Racist, what is it? It would not be good enough
12:12
S9: for anyone.
12:13
S2: But the blur itself, with so much stuff happening in
12:16
S2: Parliament in one week, means if you went up to
12:19
S2: an ordinary voter and said, well, what do you think
12:22
S2: about the results the government got in Parliament this week,
12:25
S2: they might be stumped. You know, in terms of coming
12:27
S2: up with what the big takeaway is, because, you know,
12:30
S2: if you try to get 20 bills through the parliament
12:35
S2: in a single week, people may not remember any single
12:39
S2: one of them. That means something to them in the
12:41
S2: real world. And I think that's where the government may
12:44
S2: not be so happy in the end with how things
12:46
S2: have gone this week.
12:47
S1: But then I guess that's what election campaigns are for
12:49
S1: as well, right? To say, look, we did this on housing.
12:52
S1: We did this on the Building Australia initiative, which again,
12:55
S1: I think most voters probably have no idea what that means. Yeah.
12:59
S1: I want to ask about the opposition. What are the
13:02
S1: government's weaknesses that the coalition will hone in on during
13:06
S1: an election campaign? And is the coalition now in its
13:09
S1: own position to be able to offer itself credibly to
13:11
S1: the Australian people as an alternative government?
13:14
S2: Well, the the attack lines from Peter Dutton have been
13:17
S2: very clear that Anthony Albanese is weak. And so an
13:21
S2: indecisive and sort of playing on the fact that they're
13:24
S2: slow to respond to, to things and get the judgment wrong.
13:29
S2: That's the attack line against Anthony Albanese personally. And I
13:33
S2: think that that does highlight that the challenge for labor
13:36
S2: is to produce more results faster and come up with
13:39
S2: something really concrete for ordinary voters, because Peter Dutton is
13:43
S2: working with very fertile political ground because of the hardship
13:48
S2: at the household level, with inflation up, interest rates higher,
13:53
S2: but also, I think with real wages being lower, even
13:58
S2: though real wages have increased in the most recent times,
14:03
S2: They're still down over the course of this term. So
14:07
S2: at the next election, he can tell households your incomes
14:10
S2: are lower than they were when you voted Labour in
14:13
S2: at the last election. That's a really powerful line. And
14:16
S2: so he's got a lot to work with there.
14:18
S1: We've already seen him sort of test out that line,
14:20
S1: which is a little bit borrowed. Well, very much borrowed
14:22
S1: from the Trump campaign, which is are you better off
14:24
S1: than you were three years ago? And, you know, on
14:27
S1: purely economic basis, households can say, no, I'm not. Whether
14:31
S1: or not they blame the government for that will be
14:34
S1: another matter, I suppose.
14:35
S2: But the other thing also, there's so much to talk
14:37
S2: about on on that front, because Peter Dutton's had a
14:40
S2: very quiet week, all the noise and fury has been
14:43
S2: in the Senate and on some of the bills he's
14:45
S2: been barely visible. And of course, he's biding his time
14:48
S2: before he tells Australians what he will offer them. Because
14:52
S2: it's not just about what's happened in Parliament. Labor knows this.
14:56
S2: They've got to come up with a future offer. They
14:59
S2: can't go to the election saying, look at what we've
15:01
S2: done for you in Parliament last year. Vote for us.
15:04
S2: They've got to craft some new housing measures and new
15:07
S2: other measures for the cost of living to convince voters
15:10
S2: to stick with them. But Peter Dutton at the moment
15:12
S2: has the nuclear policy super for housing. The cupboard is
15:16
S2: pretty bare for him in terms of what he offers households,
15:20
S2: and he's running out of time to communicate what he's got.
15:24
S2: And I think that's the big challenge for Peter Dutton.
15:28
S2: In our polling. It's 50 over 50, but if you
15:31
S2: look at that, it's actually very difficult to read how
15:37
S2: that's going to play out in the intensity of an
15:39
S2: election campaign, because Peter Dutton and the coalition have made
15:43
S2: big gains through the course of this year, but they
15:46
S2: now end the year at the moment with 50 over 50.
15:49
S2: How that changes during the campaign is really hard to guess.
15:54
S2: It could go either way.
15:55
S1: I mean, you had a story this week where Anthony
15:57
S1: Albanese told the labor caucus, you know that to campaign
16:01
S1: hard over summer, basically, you know, not not to have
16:03
S1: a break, but to to keep reminding people that they
16:06
S1: should be voting for Labour, you know, in the upper
16:09
S1: house and the lower house next election. Will the coalition
16:12
S1: be doing something similar, and what kinds of things are
16:15
S1: they likely to offer in terms of new offerings to,
16:18
S1: to the electorate for the next election?
16:21
S2: I'm very interested in where they're going to move on migration,
16:24
S2: because at the moment their policy doesn't stack up. They
16:27
S2: say they're going to cut migration. At the same time,
16:29
S2: they opposed the caps on overseas students, which are one
16:34
S2: way of managing the migration intake. That means they've got
16:39
S2: to come up with some specific mechanism of their own
16:44
S2: to bring the migration numbers down. That's their stated policy.
16:47
S2: But we don't know what mechanism that they'll use. Yeah.
16:50
S1: And they basically say I mean, it's complicated, but they
16:53
S1: basically say we will cut immigration harder than Labour has
16:56
S1: or Labour will.
16:57
S2: Yeah, yeah. And it's impossible to do that without a
17:01
S2: pretty mean Mechanism because you've got to turn people away,
17:05
S2: whether it's students or skilled workers. The humanitarian intake, the
17:09
S2: family reunion, it becomes very harsh. Yeah. And they're yet
17:15
S2: to reveal how that would be done. And I think
17:19
S2: they would struggle to go to the election saying, we'll
17:22
S2: tell you later how we're going to make those cuts,
17:24
S2: because that is just a very easy attack line for
17:28
S2: Labour to go to ethnic communities in Australia. Multicultural Australia
17:32
S2: and say, you know how you want to bring family
17:35
S2: members out? Peter Dutton's going to say no.
17:37
S1: Yeah. Yeah. And that could be actually disastrous. You know,
17:41
S1: for some of those marginal electorates that the coalition needs
17:43
S1: to win back. Yeah. The PM was criticised last election
17:47
S1: campaign for being too small a target in his focus.
17:49
S1: Do you think he'll do the same again or will
17:51
S1: he be bolder? Will we see any bold ideas from
17:54
S1: him and indeed from the coalition?
17:56
S2: I think there was a moment, maybe two months ago,
18:00
S2: where there was an open question about how bold labor
18:03
S2: labour might be. That was when negative gearing seemed to
18:06
S2: sort of get put back on the agenda, because we knew,
18:09
S2: thanks to our colleague James Massola, that they were working
18:13
S2: on it in Treasury. We reported that we talked about
18:15
S2: it on this podcast. They've retreated from that. That's not
18:18
S2: on the agenda. That indicates that they don't want to
18:21
S2: pick a fight where they might lose. They're worried about
18:25
S2: the superannuation tax changes they've got because they fear a
18:28
S2: scare campaign. That's like the scare campaigns on tax that
18:31
S2: they got in 2019 that cost them government. Really. So
18:36
S2: caution is the overriding kind of vibe from the government
18:39
S2: at the moment. And they're probably going to continue that
18:44
S2: through to the election. But they must have something that's
18:49
S2: future looking. On the cost of living.
18:52
S1: Yeah, it's going to be fascinating to see because, as
18:55
S1: you say, you know, globally, I suppose it's a very
18:58
S1: uncertain time. We have a lot of economic uncertainty. We
19:01
S1: have a lot of security, geo security uncertainty. So it's
19:05
S1: probably not a time for big, bold ideas that rock
19:07
S1: the boat, but at the same time, they have to
19:09
S1: promise or offer something to voters. It's fascinating, and we
19:13
S1: will pick it up again next week. And thank you
19:16
S1: very much, David, for being with us as usual.
19:19
S2: Jacqui, it's always good to talk.
19:24
S1: To you. Today's episode of Inside Politics was produced by
19:29
S1: Kai Wong with technical assistance by Tom Compagnoni. Our executive
19:34
S1: producer is Tammy Mills. Inside politics is a production of
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S1: The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. If you enjoy
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19:53
S1: I'm Jacqueline Maley, this is inside politics. Thanks for listening.