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College Football Playoff Quarterfinals Picks & Predictions | 4 games! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

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  Speaker 1: Today we're making picks and predictions on all four of
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  Speaker 1: the CFP quarterfinal games. Welcome in Winning Cures Everything. It's
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: college football podcast host Gary Seekers at Gary WCE on
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  Speaker 1: would certainly appreciate that. With that said, let's not waste
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  Speaker 1: a bunch of time. Let's get into the games. Game
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  Speaker 1: number one, Wednesday, December thirty. First, it's new UAR's Eve.
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  Speaker 1: This one six thirty pm Central Time on ESPN. Miami
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  Speaker 1: and Ohio State are playing in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl
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  Speaker 1: down in Dallas. Ohio State right now is a nine
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  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite total of forty two and
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  Speaker 1: a half on this one. And I'll go on and
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  Speaker 1: tell you my projected stat spread has Ohio State by
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  Speaker 1: about six and a half points, my power rating has
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  Speaker 1: Ohio State by six point four points, and my last
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  Speaker 1: four weeks which includes bowl games and conference title games
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  Speaker 1: or whatever, has Ohio State minus twenty one and a half.
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  Speaker 1: Pretty interesting numbers to me. You look at this thing,
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  Speaker 1: Ohio State was favored by ten early and I get
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  Speaker 1: it because Ohio State definitely the most talented team between
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  Speaker 1: the two. Ohio State number four and overall team talent
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  Speaker 1: Miami number nine, Ohio State number twenty five, and current
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  Speaker 1: strength to schedule Miami number forty five. Let's look at
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  Speaker 1: position breakdown. First, Miami number seven offensive line against Ohio
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  Speaker 1: State number six defensive line. Ohio State number nine offensive
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  Speaker 1: line against Miami number one defensive line. So the line
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  Speaker 1: of scrimmage battle is going to be massive here. Ohio
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  Speaker 1: State number forty three running back position, Miami number twenty
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  Speaker 1: four opposing linebacker. Excuse me, skill talent for Ohio State
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  Speaker 1: number three back seven for Miami is number fourteen on
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  Speaker 1: the other side, Miami number fifteen, running backs Ohio State
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  Speaker 1: number one, linebackers Miami number seven, and skill talent Ohio
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  Speaker 1: State number one in opposing back seven. So both of
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  Speaker 1: these teams have a little bit of an advantage whenever
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  Speaker 1: they are on defense, which would explain why the total
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  Speaker 1: was it forty two and a half. Now sitting still
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  Speaker 1: forty two and a half, still sitting around that key
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  Speaker 1: number there makes all.
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  Speaker 2: The sense in the world. So let's get into it.
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  Speaker 2: Just to touch.
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  Speaker 1: When Ohio State has the ball, they are number one
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  Speaker 1: in PPA per pass, number fifty nine in PPA per rush.
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  Speaker 1: So the question is going to be whether or not
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  Speaker 1: Ohio State can throw the ball on Miami. Miami number
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  Speaker 1: nine and have it great creator Ohio State is number
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  Speaker 1: five and havoc allowed.
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  Speaker 2: That's going to be huge.
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  Speaker 1: Can they protect Julian Sayan because Indiana was able to
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  Speaker 1: rattle them a little bit. Now, Ohio State was not
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  Speaker 1: able to finish drives against Indiana. Can they do that
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  Speaker 1: against Miami. Miami's defense number four in points allowed per
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  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity. Ohio State is number three on the season
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  Speaker 1: in points per scoring opportunity.
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  Speaker 2: The problem for Ohio.
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  Speaker 1: State is there are number seventy three in scoring opportunities
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  Speaker 1: per game, so they do rely on some explosive plays.
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  Speaker 1: Their number forty five in passing explosiveness, number sixteen in
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  Speaker 1: rushing explosiveness. Miami is really good against both of those.
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  Speaker 1: Number ten in passing explosiveness allowed and number thirty four
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  Speaker 1: in rushing explosiveness allowed. So interesting battle that we're going
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  Speaker 1: to see. Whenever Ohio State has the ball, will they
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  Speaker 1: be able to throw it on Miami on the other
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  Speaker 1: side when Miami's got the ball Number eight and PPA
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  Speaker 1: per pass Ohio State number seven in PPA allowed per pass,
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  Speaker 1: Miami number seventy eight PPA per rush, but they are
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  Speaker 1: number thirty nine in offensive line yards number seventeen and
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  Speaker 1: stuff right. They're number thirty six in rushing success rate.
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  Speaker 1: But Ohio State's defense number six in PPA allowed per rush,
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  Speaker 1: number six in rushing success number eighteen in offensive lineyards allowed,
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  Speaker 1: number twenty two, and stuff rate allowed. Again, very interesting
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  Speaker 1: to see who's going to be able to do what.
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  Speaker 1: Carson Beck probably going to be able to have some
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  Speaker 1: success against this defensive line, but it all relies on
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  Speaker 1: whether or not Miami is able to run the football
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  Speaker 1: against this defensive line.
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  Speaker 2: For Ohio State.
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  Speaker 1: Looking at the pace of play, both of these teams
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  Speaker 1: play really, really slow. Again, it's a low total for
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  Speaker 1: a reason. Ohio State number one thirty six in pace
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  Speaker 1: of play, so it plays per minute, Miami number one
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  Speaker 1: twenty seven. Miami has a special teams advantage number thirty
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  Speaker 1: eight in special team's efficiency per sp plus Ohio State
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  Speaker 1: number sixty four. And when you start looking at red
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  Speaker 1: zone conversion all that kind of stuff, Miami number twenty
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  Speaker 1: seven offensive red zone touchdown rate. Ohio State's defense is
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  Speaker 1: number two. Ohio State's offense number thirty five in offensive
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  Speaker 1: red zone touchdown rate. Miami's defense is number twenty nine.
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  Speaker 1: Miami is a really good football team. This feels like
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  Speaker 1: a ton of points again, Ohio State last four weeks
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  Speaker 1: minus twenty one and a half ish, But when you
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  Speaker 1: look at projected stats, power rating, et cetera, all of
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  Speaker 1: them have this as less than a touchdown. I know
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  Speaker 1: Ohio States had plenty of time off Miami, a lot
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  Speaker 1: of confidence building last week with a win at Texas
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  Speaker 1: A and m I look at this the five factors
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  Speaker 1: rank raw five factors, Miami number three, Ohio State number five.
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  Speaker 1: I think this is going to be a tight game.
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  Speaker 1: I do think Ohio State wins the game, but I
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  Speaker 1: think it's close. I think it is a close, close ballgame.
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  Speaker 1: I will take Miami plus nine and a half to
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  Speaker 1: keep this thing really within one score and an outside
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  Speaker 1: shot of winning the football game. Capitol One Orange Bowl
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  Speaker 1: is going to see the Oregon Ducks and the Texas
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  Speaker 1: Tech Red Raiders. Oregon right now a one and a
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  Speaker 1: half to two and a half point favorite with a
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  Speaker 1: total of fifty two and a half on this It's
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  Speaker 1: eleven am on New Year's Day on ESPN at Central time,
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  Speaker 1: of course God's time zone, and good gracious nine am
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  Speaker 1: body clock game for Oregon. They got the late game
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  Speaker 1: with James Madison and now they've got the early game
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  Speaker 1: on New Year's Day at nine am Oregon time. So
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  Speaker 1: just bananas when you really think about it. Overall team
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  Speaker 1: talent Texas Tech number twenty three, Oregon number seven. And
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  Speaker 1: when you look at position groups, we'll start out on
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  Speaker 1: this Texas Tech number twenty one offensive line, Oregon's defensive
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  Speaker 1: lineumber fifty four. Interesting battle there, Texas Tek number fifty
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  Speaker 1: nine running backs against the number five linebackers for Oregon
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  Speaker 1: number thirteen. In skill talent for Texas Tech, number four
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  Speaker 1: defensive back seven for Oregon. On the other side of
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  Speaker 1: the ball, Oregon number three offensive line against the number
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  Speaker 1: two defensive line in the country. Number seventy running backs
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  Speaker 1: for Oregon against the number four linebackers Oregon number twenty
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  Speaker 1: two in skill talent Texas Tech number nine in defensive
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  Speaker 1: back seven. I mean, we're talking an interesting interesting spot here.
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  Speaker 1: Let's talk about strengthen schedule. Texas Tech number fifty four.
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  Speaker 1: They have been crushing teams, but they are so much
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  Speaker 1: better than everybody that was on their schedule. You didn't
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  Speaker 1: see any non conference games to really give you an
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  Speaker 1: idea of what this Texas Tech team looks like against
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  Speaker 1: everybody else. So I'm not sure exactly how to quantify that.
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  Speaker 1: Against a big twelve schedule like BYU was good, but
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  Speaker 1: we all know BYU had limitations. Texas Tech lost to
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  Speaker 1: Arizona State. I still don't understand how that happened. Oregon,
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  Speaker 1: their only loss was to Indiana. My projected stat spread
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  Speaker 1: has Texas Tech by two. My power rating has Oregon
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  Speaker 1: by two. The last four weeks has Texas Tech minus
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  Speaker 1: seven point eight. Again, you can try an opponent adjust
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  Speaker 1: all you want to, but until you actually see it,
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  Speaker 1: I don't really know what to make of.
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  Speaker 2: It is what it is.
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  Speaker 1: Special teams Oregon has a has an advantage here number
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  Speaker 1: twenty two in special teams efficiency, Texas Tech number forty two.
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  Speaker 1: Let's talk about finishing drives. Oregon's defense number eighty nine
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  Speaker 1: in points allowed per scoring opportunity, Texas Tech is number
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  Speaker 1: thirty four, but Texas Tech is number one in scoring
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  Speaker 1: opportunities per game Oregon number forty five. So this Oregon
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  Speaker 1: defense number seventeen in defensive success rate, the number forty
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  Speaker 1: seven against the run, Texas Tech is not great at
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  Speaker 1: running the football by any stretch. The number forty six
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  Speaker 1: in ppaper rush Oregon's defense number forty eight, Texas Tech
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  Speaker 1: number fifty seven. And rushing success Oregon number forty seven.
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  Speaker 1: Offensive line yards Texas Tech number ninety three.
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  Speaker 2: They are number one oh five.
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  Speaker 1: And stuff rate allowed Oregon number forty five and offensive
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  Speaker 1: line yards allowed number one thirteen in stuff rate. Very
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  Speaker 1: interesting just when you look at it overall, right, Oregon
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  Speaker 1: really good.
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  Speaker 2: Against the pass.
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  Speaker 1: Texas Tech doesn't throw it all that often forty seven
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  Speaker 1: and a half, but that is what they are best at.
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  Speaker 1: If Oregon can put the clamps on the passing game.
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  Speaker 2: I don't know that.
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  Speaker 1: I trust Texas Tech to be able to run the football,
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  Speaker 1: and if you can't score, then he can't win. So now, granted,
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  Speaker 1: there was a part of this where Baron Morton was
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  Speaker 1: out for a little while and the backup is no
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  Speaker 1: longer in Who knows what could happen there on the
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  Speaker 1: other side of the ball when Oregon has it. Oregon
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  Speaker 1: is really good at running the football. Number three in
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  Speaker 1: PBA per rush, umber two in yards per rush. They're
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  Speaker 1: number three in rushing success rate. Texas Techs defense number one,
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  Speaker 1: number one and number three in those offensive line yards
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  Speaker 1: Oregon number thirteen. Stuff rate number twenty seven. Texas Tech
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  Speaker 1: is number seventeen in stuff rate on defense and number
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  Speaker 1: two in offensive line yards allowed.
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  Speaker 2: Can Oregon finish drives.
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  Speaker 1: Number twenty five in points per scoring opportunity, Texas Tech
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  Speaker 1: number five in points allowed per scoring opportunity. Interesting interesting spot.
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  Speaker 1: Texas Tech is number one in five Factors Rank Raw
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  Speaker 1: five factors. Oregon is number seven here, Texas Tech eleven
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  Speaker 1: and two against the spread this year, I mean, just bananas.
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  Speaker 1: Oregon seven and five against the spread was seven to
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  Speaker 1: five and.
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  Speaker 2: One against one of those was an FCS team.
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  Speaker 1: When you look at the Bulls, Texas Tech three and
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  Speaker 1: one against the spread plus fourteen and a half, Oregon
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  Speaker 1: one and five against the spread minus five and a half.
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  Speaker 1: When you look at bowl records against the spread or
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  Speaker 1: postseason against the spread, Really, Oregon is really good offensively,
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  Speaker 1: more so running it than passing it. And when you
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  Speaker 1: look at the passes, I mean, they're number sixty five
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  Speaker 1: in passing success, but they're number two in passing explosiveness.
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  Speaker 1: Teams have to throw the ball on Texas Tech. It's
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  Speaker 1: almost fifty six percent of the time they are defending
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  Speaker 1: a pass, and most of that is because they've gotten
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  Speaker 1: such a huge lead that teams have to throw it.
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  Speaker 1: I'm curious whether or not Oregon is going to have
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  Speaker 1: as many problems with this secondary as some might think.
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  Speaker 1: Turnover margin, Texas Tech is number two, they are number
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  Speaker 1: one in takeaways per game. Oregon is number fourteen and
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  Speaker 1: giveaways per game and number sixty four in takeaways per game.
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  Speaker 1: I don't think that the turnovers in the second half
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  Speaker 1: against James Madison really mattered. I mean, obviously they won
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  Speaker 1: the game anyway, but it is a bit concerning because
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  Speaker 1: if you're able to get pressure on Dante More, he
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  Speaker 1: might give you the football.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, just the way it goes.
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  Speaker 1: Texas Tech's offense number ninety eight in offensive red zone
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  Speaker 1: touchdown rate. Oregon's defense is number one twenty in defensive
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  Speaker 1: red zone touchdown rate. Just kind of shocking. If Texas
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  Speaker 1: Tech gets down there, I think they're going to be
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  Speaker 1: able to score. When you break it all down, I
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  Speaker 1: think Oregon is more battle tested than Texas Tech. This
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  Speaker 1: is a huge spot that the majority of these kids
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  Speaker 1: on this Texas Tech roster have not been in. I
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  Speaker 1: think it's going to be a tight game. Texas Tech
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  Speaker 1: has not been in many tight games. I'm gonna trust Oregon.
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  Speaker 1: There's a reason why Texas Tech was favored to start.
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  Speaker 2: Obviously. You look at the numbers.
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  Speaker 1: Texas Tech minus one point nine to four, Texas Tech
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  Speaker 1: minus seven point eight two over the last four weeks
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  Speaker 1: power rating. I've got Oregon by two. The best number
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  Speaker 1: that I can get on this is Oregon minus one
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  Speaker 1: and a half. I know it's a nine am body
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  Speaker 1: clock game, I get all that. But they are gonna
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  Speaker 1: be ready. It's gonna be New Year's Day. They will
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  Speaker 1: be prepared for this. I trust Organ, I trust their roster.
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  Speaker 1: I think they've been battle tested. I don't think Texas
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  Speaker 1: Tech has. And when you get into a tight game situation,
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  Speaker 1: that staff for Texas Tech has not been through it
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  Speaker 1: the way that Organ has. I will take the Ducks.
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  Speaker 1: Give me Oregon minus one and a half. I think
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  Speaker 1: they win the game. I think they cover the number,
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  Speaker 1: and I think that we will see them in the
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Peach Bowl on January the ninth. Are you tired of
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  Speaker 1: already subscribed to the channel, like the video, and of course,
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: jump in the comments. Let me know your picks on
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: these games. Give me some news. If there's something that
• 13:53
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• 13:55
  Speaker 1: don't forget buy me a coffee. Dot com slash winning cures.
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: Get back to the games.
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  Speaker 1: The Rose Bowl New Year's Day, three pm Central Time,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: God's time Zone on ESPN. We got the Alabama Crimson
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  Speaker 1: Tide taking on the Indiana Hoosiers and Indiana right.
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  Speaker 2: Now six and a half point.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, six and a half point to seven point favorite,
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  Speaker 1: depending on which book you get it, and a total
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  Speaker 1: of forty eight and a half on this one. Lots
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  Speaker 1: of notes here, nothing too crazy. Defensive end Stephen Daily,
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  Speaker 1: who leads Indiana in tackles for loss, has nineteen and
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  Speaker 1: a half and he is third in sacks for Indiana
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  Speaker 1: with five and a half this year. He's the Kent
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: State transfer that really kind of exploded onto the scene.
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  Speaker 2: He had eleven.
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  Speaker 1: Tackles for loss in the last four games for Indiana.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: He is out, I believe for the rest of the season.
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: They're still trying to figure out exactly what that's going
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: to look like.
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  Speaker 2: But he has a knee injury, so he's going to
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: be out.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: Alabama defensive lineman LT Overton is back healthy, so he
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: will be playing in this game as well. That is
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: a huge addition for Alabama when you look at when
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: you look at overall position groups right team talent, Alabama
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  Speaker 1: is number one per on three overall team talent, Indiana
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: number forty eight. When you look at position groups, Indiana
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  Speaker 1: number fourteen offensive line against Alabama number eight defensive line,
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  Speaker 1: Indiana number thirteen running backs against Alabama number ten linebackers,
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  Speaker 1: and Indiana number ten skill position against Alabama number five
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  Speaker 1: defensive back seven. On the other side, Bama number five
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: in offensive line against number fifteen defensive line for Indiana
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: number thirty three running backs against number nineteen linebackers for Indiana,
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  Speaker 1: and Bama number twenty seven in skill talent against number
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  Speaker 1: eight defensive back seven for Indiana. So DiAngelo pines, all
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: that bunch they're gonna be good to go against. We
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: really don't know exactly what the wide receiver corp is
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  Speaker 1: going to look like Isaiah Horton, Jeremy Bernard, Lazier Brooks
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  Speaker 1: that much. And then Ryan Williams is kind of a crapshoot,
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  Speaker 1: like the most drops in FBS this year. I'm not
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: sure exactly what he's going to look like. But even still,
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: when you look at strength of schedule, Alabama number six,
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: Indiana number twenty eight, and that is weighed heavily by
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: facing Oregon on the road in Ohio State in the
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: Big Ten Championship game. But you also did have a
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: game at Iowa at Penn State right. This is of
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: course neutral site is what it is.
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  Speaker 2: I told you.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: Indiana favored by six and a half or seven depending
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: on the book total of forty eight and a half.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: That total has not moved. Indiana minus seven was there
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  Speaker 1: when I created the sheet the day after the CFB
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: first round. Indiana power rated. I've got him by three
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: over Obama. Over the last four weeks, I've got Indiana
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: minus one point four to seven. But the projected stat
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: spread has Indiana minus ten point six to three. So
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  Speaker 1: if you're just looking at stats from the season, Indiana
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: has been way better than Alabama, way way better. Special
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  Speaker 1: teams efficiency Indiana number thirty nine, Alabama number one oh eight.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: Let's go with Indiana having the football first okay, number
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  Speaker 1: two in PPA per pass, number eleven in PPA per rush.
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  Speaker 1: They do everything well. They run the ball almost fifty
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  Speaker 1: eight percent of the time.
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  Speaker 2: When they throw it. They're gonna have.
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: Some problems against this Alabama defense.
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: Right.
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  Speaker 1: Alabama is number twenty three and HAVOC created Indiana number eight,
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: and Havoc allowed passing explosiveness Indiana's number nine, Alabama number four,
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  Speaker 1: Indiana number two and passing success rate Alabama number twenty eight.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: Fernando Mendoza, Heisman Trophy winner. Mendoza six touchdowns, five interceptions
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: against the top four defenses that he faced. Seven his
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: thirty three touchdowns were against Kennessas State, Perdue, et cetera. Right,
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: but against the top four defenses Ohio State, Iowa, Oregon,
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: and I want to say Maryland had sixty ds five interceptions.
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: Didn't look great. QBR was not good, but his QBR
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: on the season best in the country one e four.
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  Speaker 1: He was number one in QBR. Bama's defense number thirty
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: one in QBR allowed. As far as running the football,
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: Indiana is going to want to run the football, They
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: run it again almost fifty eight percent of the time.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: Number four in rushing success rate, Bama's number fifteen in
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: rushing success allowed Indiana.
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: Number eleven in.
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: PBA per rush Alabama number forty six and PBA allowed
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: per rush. Indiana is number four in points for scoring opportunity.
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: Bama is number forty four. Interesting numbers. Interesting numbers. On
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: the other side of the ball, Bama cannot run the football.
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: They just can't.
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: There are certain moments where they can, but there are
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: Number one twenty five in yards per rush. Indiana's defense
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: is number ten in yards allowed per rush. Bama is
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: number ninety three in rusting success. Indiana's defense is number four.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: It's not great. There's nothing you can really do to
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: fix it at this point. I think part of it
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: is scheme. I think the other part of it is
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: maybe the actual running backs are not great. So is
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: what it is raw five factors, Indiana's number two, Alabama
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: number twenty two. Five factors plus talent. However, Indiana drops
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: to number eleven. Alabama is number two now that his
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: opponent adjusted that his talent infused, et cetera. So Bama
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: has been tested significantly. Points per scoring opportunity for Bama's
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: offense number thirty one, Indiana number one in points allowed
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity. On the other side, Indiana number four
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: in points per scoreoring opportunity. Alabama's defense number forty four
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: in points allowed for scoring opportunity, penalties, turnovers, all of
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: that heavily in Indiana's favorite. This Indiana team is fantastic,
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: there's a reason why they are undefeated, but power rating wise,
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: when you look at just overall team talent, et cetera,
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: Indiana has not been a favorite against the team that
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: is significantly more talented other than when they were the
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: favorite against Penn State, and this was not a good
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: Penn State team. Granted it was on the road, but
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: they had to fight to the nail to come back
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: and win that ballgame. They were a fourteen to fourteen
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite somewhere around there won the
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: game by three on a last second touchdown pass. I
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: think Alabama is going to be as healthy as they
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: have been all season in this game, and I do
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: believe that it is going to be a tight, tight ballgame,
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: tighter than seven points. So I am of the belief
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: that we are going to see an upset somewhere in
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: this first round. I think the loss of Stephen Daley
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: is huge. I think the fact that Mendoza has not
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: played well against really good defenses, and Bama does, in
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: fact have a pretty good defense. They're number fourteen a
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: defensive success rate. By the way, Ty Simpson looked like
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: his old self last week, so if you can give
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: him any kind of protection, he's gonna be able to
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: hit those wide receivers. I get the feeling that this
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: is where we're going to see the upset, and I
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: know a bunch of you think that I'm crazy, but
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: this just feels like one of those, because I mean,
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lie. Indiana fans are talking a lot
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: more than I've ever heard them talk, even heading into
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: the Ohio State game, heading into a bunch of games,
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: but this is what two years of unprecedented success.
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: Will do for a football program.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: I think Bamo wins the game, and if they don't,
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: I think it's super close. But I am expecting a
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: classic in the Rose Bowl. Kaitlin de Bore really good
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: in big time games like this. I'm expecting more of
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: the same from him. Not the Oklahoma game in the
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: middle of the year, not the Georgia game in the
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: SEC Championship where they were all banged up. Bama's going
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: to be super healthy, Indiana missing a key piece on
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: the defensive line. I think Bamo wins the game, so
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: I will take the best number, which is seven. So
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: give me Alabama plus seven, and I think Bama goes
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: on to face Oregon in the Peach Bowl on January ninth,
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: the Strigger Bowl on New Year's Day night, this one
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: at seven pm Central Time, God's time Zone on ESPN,
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss and Georgia, and that is the Layne kiffenless
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: ole Miss Rebels against the Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia right now
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: is six and a half point favorite total of fifty
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: six and a half on this one interesting interesting spot here.
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: Let's start off with this.
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: The projected stat spread that I've got has Georgia minus
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: five and a half. My power rating has Georgia minus four.
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: The last four weeks has Georgia minus three point nine
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: to three, so about four points. And yet in a
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: game like this, I fully think that not having Lane
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: Kiffen around for those very important play calls is a huge,
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: huge deal. Pete Golding has had success against Georgia in
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: the past when he was at Alabama. Granted, he did
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: have a lot of success against Georgia last year in
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: Oxford as the defensive coordinator. But this Georgia team seems
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: to be clicking on all cylinders right now. Georgia number
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: twenty two in PPA margin, ole Miss is number twelve.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: When you look at team talent, Georgia number two, ole
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: Miss number twenty one special teams efficiency both are inside
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: the top five. I mean, this is just a monster
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: monster matchup. When you look at position groups, Georgia number
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: twelve offensive line against the number twenty nine defensive line
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: for all Miss, ole Miss number thirty one offensive line
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: against the number forty four defensive line for Georgia. Georgia
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: number twenty seven running backs against number twenty two linebackers
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: for ole Miss, Georgia number twenty four skilled position talent
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: against number twenty opposing back seven for ole Miss, ole
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: Miss number twenty eight running backs against number twenty one
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: opponent linebackers for Georgia and ole Miss number eight skill
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: talent against Georgia number eleven defensive back seven Keywan Lacey.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: How injured is that shoulder? How injured is he?
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: Very curious?
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: Their trendadad Chambliss came back and played, he should be fine.
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: I would think both of these teams like Georgia four
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: and three against the spread since twenty twenty in bowl games,
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss four and two against the spread since twenty
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: twenty in bowl games Georgia plus twelve and a half,
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: ole Miss plus four point three. So both play above
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: expectation in bowl matchups or postseason matchups. When Georgia has
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: the football number six in points per scoring opportunity, ole
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: Miss's defense is number sixteen, but ole Miss allows the
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: ninety seventh the most scoring opportunities per game. Georgia's number
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: sixty seven is scoring opportunities per game. Georgia has gotten
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: better at running the football as the season has gone on,
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: but they are number sixty one and rushing are passing
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: success rate.
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: Excuse me.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: They are number to thirty seven in rushing success rate,
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: ole Miss number seventy in rushing success allowed. Ole Miss
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: not great at stopping the run. I think George is
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: gonna be able to run the football quite a bit
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: here as far as passing the ball. Gunnar Stockton had
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: a career day against ole Miss earlier this year. Now,
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: granted that was in Athens. This one in the Sugar
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: Bowl in New Orleans.
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: It's gonna be.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: This is like a home away from home for ole
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: Miss fans, So I would expect to see a lot
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: of ole Miss fans in Louisiana for this. It's kind
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: of funny that it's happening in Louisiana, right, is what
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: it is. Ole Miss number seven in PBA per pass,
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: they are number thirty eight in PPAPRI rush number eighty
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: three on offensive line yards number ninety four, and stuff
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: rate allowed Georgia's number eleven, offensive line yards allowed number
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: thirty five and stuff rate rushing success ole Miss number
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: thirty nine. Georgia is number eight and rushing success allowed.
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: So Georgia has gotten better against the run. Ole Miss
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: better at passing the football. Georgia has not been great
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: at defending the pass this year. Georgia only number seventy
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: nine and have it great created ole Miss number thirty
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: seven and have it allowed? Can ole Miss throw the
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: ball enough in this game to be able to Are
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: they going to go explosive? Because they are number six
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: in passing explosiveness. Georgia is number nineteen. The problem for
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: Georgia is their number fifty one in passing success allowed.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss is number five. So can ole Miss take
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: the running game and use the passing game enough to
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: hold on to the football to keep it away from
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: Georgia because I think george is gonna run it and
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: keep it.
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: Away from ole Miss.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss number twelve in place per minute, so they
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: play fast up tempo. Georgia number one oh three in
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: place permitted, so they play pretty slow. Ole Miss as
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: far as points per scoring opportunity number nine. The Georgia
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: defense is number seventy in points allowed per scoring opportunity,
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: Georgia number thirty nine. Defensive red zone touchdown rate, ole
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: Miss's offense is number fifty nine. There, Georgia is number
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: two an offensive red zone touchdown rate, ole Miss number
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: thirty seven.
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: That is a big one.
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: Five factors rank just raw five factors. Georgia sixteen, ole
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: Miss number seventeen. But when you toss in talent and
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: you toss an opponent adjustment, george is number four, ole
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: Miss is number nineteen. I think this is going to
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: be a big spot for Georgia. I think they are
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: peaking at the right moment. I think that ole Miss
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: this is where not having lane Keivin will bite you.
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: And it took a long time because I mean it
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: was still Thanksgiving when he decided he was going to LSU.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: But this is a massive, massive spot. Current strength to
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: schedule Georgia fifteen, ole Miss that huge gauntlet of an
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: SEC schedule. They are number forty one in current strength
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: to schedule. They played two real games all year, one
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: at Oklahoma, lost at Georgia. I think Georgia handles them,
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: and I think they handle them by significantly more than
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: a touchdown. I say significantly more. I'll just say more
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: than a touchdown. So I'm gonna take the dogs to win.
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the dogs to cover. Give me Georgia
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: minus six and a half here, and I think Georgia
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: will go on to face Ohio State in what the
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: Fiesta Bowl?
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: Is that right?
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: So Georgia Ohio State in one semi final and Alabama
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: and Oregon in the other semi final.
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: All right, let's recap the numbers that we got here.
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: Miami plus nine and a half, Oregon minus one and
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: a half, Alabama plus seven, and Georgia minus six and
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: a half. That is gonna give us on January the eighth,
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: Georgia against Ohio State and on January the ninth, Alabama
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: against Oregon. The college I'm expecting at least one upset.
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: I think Bama's gonna be the one. You guys, correct
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: me if I'm wrong. I would love to hear it
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: in the comments. Go ahead, like the video, subscribe to
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: the channel, jump in the comments. Tell me why you
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: think I'm crazy, because I know a lot.
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: Of you do.
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: But when you look at these two teams, when you
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: look at these eight teams, this is how I'm seeing it,
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: So buy me coffee dot com slash Winning Cures.
• 29:42
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• 29:54
  Speaker 1: But obviously we shall see. But subscribe to the channel.
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: I would love to hear from all of you. We
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: have another Bowl video coming out soon, so make sure
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: that you check that thing out. But for now, this
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: is the CFP Quarterfinals and we'll have another one for
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: the semi finals right after those bowl games. So with
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: that said, take care of yourself, take care of each other.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: God bless college football and hopefully all of your tickets
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: cash this week.
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything.
• 30:25
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