Latest / The Scout and The Speculator / Emergency Episode! Mega Box Market Moving Madness!
Transcript
- Jaba: Hello everybody. Welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator podcast. And we have a brief emergency episode today. with the news that these mega boxes in 2026 Bowman Chrome, the autos now, for the first time ever, I believe ever, ⁓ definitely in the last five years, ⁓ now have a first designation on them. ⁓ Bowman is done away. underscore_underscore_: Yep. Jaba: With the much maligned HTA to 150 auto in hobby boxes. And they've seemingly replaced it with now the bases are mojo, non-numbered, but they do have a first on them. And you're getting the full color palette from what I've seen as well. ⁓ in Mojo first autos, which is a huge, huge change. ⁓ you know, obviously when they weren't first designation it was just way under. I would say it was probably firmly under fifty percent of a base chrome first auto. ⁓ probably probably even lower than that. ⁓ you know for me I think in the last few years I stopped opening mega boxes entirely. When I was getting into Bowman five years ago, ⁓ I opened a lot of mega boxes, just kind of the most affordable way to get involved. maybe pull an auto, ⁓ you know, get some nice looking cards, and then, you know, quickly you come to realize that there's a reason why it's such a cheap option. The resale market just isn't there. I mean the first auto I ever pulled was a twenty twenty one mega box. It was a Spencer Torkelson blue auto and I thought I had hit the jackpot. ⁓ didn't hit the jackpot. But ⁓ yeah. underscore_underscore_: Yep. Jaba: I mean this is just a massive change and I'm curious to hear how you think this is gonna impact the market because it definitely will. underscore_underscore_: Yeah, I'll keep it quick and simple and kinda to the point where I think it's gonna put a premium on true color now. You have another hundred and fifty blues, you have another twenty-four oranges into the mix, you have another fifty golds, I see a red on eBay right now. I'm gonna start by saying first and foremost, these megas are really clogging up my eBay feed when I go to search for newly listed stuff and I don't like it. ⁓ I say that kind of facetiously, kind of like Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. With you. underscore_underscore_: jokingly half not joking though. There was a lot of megas. Now for the people who are like us and saying we don't like the megas or ha are further into Bowman, I don't think the quote unquote Bowman purists, the Bowman heads, are gonna like the megas. I d just don't think that they're gonna buy them. I don't I I think they are going to equate them to mega boxes. You think that like ⁓ the commoner can get that. Like you can go to Target and pull it. Like they're they're just not gonna Jaba: Yesterday was a mess. underscore_underscore_: It's not gonna be Bowman. ⁓ see it, you you get the greens right from the blasters and you knew once those hit, and now you're getting the megas, and I just maybe it makes a an impact in ⁓ I can get a blue wave ray wave Luis Fernandez at 500, or I can get a blue mega box Luis Fernandez at 400. Like it might give another affordable option at some color for people. I don't know if it's gonna how much it's gonna impact the market because people so are so ingrained in what they know and what they like. This is a big change. ⁓ might take a minute for that change to come through. I'm not sure it will. ⁓ I have to imagine this'll also mean Luis Fernandez won't have base autos in the mega boxes, nor will Cinche. ⁓ Wandy might have true like blues missing. I'm curious how that correlation will go. I haven't seen Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: Redemptions yet for mega boxes for the guys we've seen out of twenty six chrome. ⁓ I don't know. I mean, end of the day, it's a cheaper option to get autos. I just with some of these base prices already bottoming out, I can't imagine they're gonna hold that much value. Like if you can buy a who'd we talk about yesterday? ⁓ a five dollar Anthony Martinez true quote unquote and now I now you gotta say true base autos or a mega box base auto. Like, gimme the true base auto, baby. ⁓ I just think that's how people are gonna think and I think that's I I I personally think that's what the market is gonna dictate. You? Jaba: Yeah, I mean, quick thought, I you know, with you saying that, I'm curious how the four ninety nine refractors are gonna work. ⁓ don't really care enough to look into it and I don't think it's worth kinda discussing here. but underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: I will say I I think two things are true with it. I think one, I think it's great because like I was saying, you know, when I got into it, mega boxes were the most accessible, cheap, fun way to get into Bowman. Cause obviously not everyone has eight hundred dollars to buy a box of Bowman draft. And I think having a viable fifty dollar option is a great thing for expanding kind of who's into Bowman and just the hobby. I think it makes it way more accessible. ⁓ I think that that is just, you know, always gonna be a good thing. But on the flip side of that, I think, you know, like you said, Bowman is a pretty snobbish ⁓ fan base. And while we may not, you know, kind of agree with, you know, the rules set before us by the Bowman forefathers, you know, I think you can kinda poke holes in some of it. We both do, you know, participate in it and play by the rules because you you have to if you want to do it at a serious level, you know, you kinda have to operate within, you know, the common guidelines. So, you know, I think it's great for growing Bowman. underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. The confines. Jaba: I think it's you know, a nice addition. I also think it's funny that they did this and didn't really announce it. ⁓ I don't know if they just thought nobody would care or nobody would notice, but I think it's pretty funny because, you know, it it it is a pretty massive ⁓ massive move here. I I think that it is very relevant to the market. And like you said, you know, I'm not sure it's going to reduce the value of other color variations. You know, I generally think of underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: It okay, well if a guy's true blue is two hundred, a blue wave is probably a hundred bucks, call it. Do I think it could now become, you know, ninety? Sure. But I also think that all of that is so much more dependent on the player, where, you know, for Luis Hernandez, a blue mojo will probably cost just as much. I mean, yeah, there's a hundred fifty more in the market, but there's a lot more than a hundred and fifty people who want a blue Luis Hernandez at an affordable price. I do think, you know, I agree with you, I think the true color, which has clearly pulled away underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: ⁓ you know, obviously we think of it as that 2x multiple. I think it's actually probably pulled above that, and I think that this could push it more to like two point five. Again, it's gonna depend on, you know, the type of card. I think, you know, if you have a red wave, you know, red mojos being a thing doesn't matter. But th there's five more red variations. You know, you took something unbelievably scarce and made it one percent less scarce. underscore_underscore_: Yep. Yeah. We're not watering it down. Yeah. Jaba: blues and golds, I think you could see the true color kind of pull up that multiple to being like two point two five to two point five X variations, but I I think if you're a person who buys, you know, orange, black, and red, if you're operating that high end, I don't think that this matters to you at all. You know, and it kind of goes back to what I said, you know, I think it's cool that, you know, some kid and his dad going to Target can go pull like a red first auto. ⁓ you know, I think of it as not being threatening enough where I'm like, hey, that you know, that's not fair, you know, they can pull that from Target. You know, I think of it as, ⁓ okay, cool, you know, maybe that gets more people into Bowman and you know, the more people in a market, ⁓ generally the better for its long term, you know, viability. So that's kinda underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: I don't know if you have anything else after my my filibuster there. underscore_underscore_: so Wandy is all redemption except base autos in mojo. ⁓ Luis Hernandez Luis Hernandez has base available, autos available in mojo. So I'll be curious how that transacts because his base first, his true base is redemption only, but he has mojo base autos live. ⁓ looks like Girangelo is not in the product at all. Didn't realize he was an auto only in 26 Chrome. Jaba: Okay, so they do have redemptions. underscore_underscore_: Guess that makes sense. I haven't seen his color. ⁓ doesn't appear to have autos in this product or none have been pulled to this point. And ⁓ looks like Chase Burns might also have redemptions for autos. ⁓ and Angel Nunez has a lot of redemptions available, which is kinda weird. Because he was live on every color. So ⁓ just a quick little dig. Jaba: That is weird. Question Question for you before we wrap up here. Say I'm looking at a Ricky Money's ⁓ blue mojo up right now. At you know, pound for pound, if there's a mojo up for and I'm just throwing out a random easy number. There's a mojo, a wave, and a shimmer all up for a hundred dollars in a color of a guy you like underscore_underscore_: Yep. Yeah. Jaba: Do you care which one it is, or do you just say, Okay, well I'm gonna take the you know, the best deal? Like are are you turning your nose up now at a mojo variation? Or are you saying, Okay, well that's equal to a wave and a shimmer, you know, and that's a good price by those guidelines, I'm gonna buy it. underscore_underscore_: ⁓ it's gonna be weird too because well for me I'm gonna go Ray Wave always because I just love them. Personally, it's an eye appeal thing. Or I'm gonna go with the cheaper shipping if I don't care. ⁓ but Jaba: Sure. So you don't care between like a mojo and a like pound for pound, you have to buy it as an investment. You're not underscore_underscore_: ⁓ probably would stay away from the mojo. I would, personally. Jaba: You would. Yeah. I you know, I think I agree with that. I think when I posed the question in my head I was like, ⁓ I think they're all gonna be equal But I do think enough people are gonna be thrown off by this and You know, I think some people might not even realize it. You know, not saying people are stupid, it's just they didn't announce it, you know, you're not seeing a ton about it. And, you know, just kind of muscle memory, you wouldn't really think to look for it. ⁓ but yeah, I'm I'm I'm not touching it this release. ⁓ underscore_underscore_: Correct. Yep. And it's also but No. Jaba: But I think over time it could, you know, fall in line there, but I think for this one I think it'll be a little lower, just because a lot of people are gonna be like, you know, what what's going on here? underscore_underscore_: I think it would have had a little more bit more of a market shirt too if it wasn't released two weeks after the f the quote unquote flagship came out. Like the main release, you know? Like we're kind of set in our ways, our pricing, we kinda know it. I don't think it's gonna be a drastic difference, but I do think the mojos are probably gonna be viewed a little less. They could be really good whatnot cards too though, to just run during streams. People see first autos and just go after it. Like but Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, maybe eighty percent of I agree. Last ⁓ clo closing note here. I'm seeing Sinche redemption cards on eBay alright. No, like I'm seeing a blue ray wave up with the seal on it. That's the first time I've seen that. ⁓ so ⁓ quick ⁓ shout out. underscore_underscore_: Overall. For mojo. ⁓ live. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, he's live. He is live. Yep. So that's a quick turnaround. That was probably just him quite literally not getting them in on time. Then they had him and we said Yeah. We said see ya later. Cool. Jaba: Yeah, probably sometime in a week after. Alright. Well, quick episode ⁓ for this one. Just wanted to get it out. Thank you guys all for listening, and we will see you next time.