Latest / Best of Business / Greg Smith: Devon Funds Management representative on Global PMIs, the luxury brand that is soaring, and why things are looking up in the red meat sector in NZ

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Greg Smith: Devon Funds Management representative on Global PMIs, the luxury brand that is soaring, and why things are looking up in the red meat sector in NZ · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talk zed B.
• 0:12
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  Speaker 2: It is Monday Morning. Grigsmith here, Devin Funds Management, Greg,
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  Speaker 2: Good morning Mornings. You're right, the PMI is a bit
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  Speaker 2: of a mixed bag stand out the US.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, this is manufacturing and services activity globallys We've
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  Speaker 3: seen a number of prints here, so EU US is
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  Speaker 3: going pretty well. That will will be pleasing to Trump.
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  Speaker 3: The manufacturing sector that's no longer going backwards. Services sector
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  Speaker 3: at nine months low, but still an expansion territory. So yeah,
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  Speaker 3: optimism is pretty high in the US. You know, the
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  Speaker 3: Trump ump appears to be wide ranging. If you look
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  Speaker 3: at the joint services and manufacturing outlock, it's actually the
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  Speaker 3: highest since May twenty twenty two. So yeah, US based
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  Speaker 3: businesses have got a positive view of things. A little
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  Speaker 3: bit of a different story in Europe this is actively
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  Speaker 3: did get back to grow for the first time in
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  Speaker 3: five months, but yeah, bit of a mixed bag. Germany
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  Speaker 3: doing well. France less so the factory sector stare and
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  Speaker 3: contraction mode, but a little bit less than in the UK.
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  Speaker 3: Things in positive territory, but again just obviously concerns over
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  Speaker 3: the budgets. Still in a bit of a case of
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  Speaker 3: the manufacturing sector remaining contraction in the services sector expanding
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  Speaker 3: more So, it's a bit of a theme outside of
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  Speaker 3: the US. Generally Japanese factory activity that contracted a bit
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  Speaker 3: more services did a bit better than expected. This has
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  Speaker 3: given the central making a bit more Wiggoruino raised rates,
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  Speaker 3: so they did so on Friday, increased rates to zero
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  Speaker 3: point five percent, but that's the highest than seventy years.
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  Speaker 3: China is still a picture of weakness, particularly the manufacturing sectors.
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  Speaker 3: That's a little bit of odds of some of the
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  Speaker 3: positive data that I've seen lately on those stimulus impacts.
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  Speaker 3: And looking across the Tasman the factory PM in Australia
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  Speaker 3: contracted lease in January and in fact it's barely contracting
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  Speaker 3: at all now. Services sector expanded at a slower pace,
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  Speaker 3: and then we all compare this to a less positive situation.
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  Speaker 3: Of course, New Zealand we talked about that last week.
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  Speaker 3: Manufacturing sector year in contraction for twenty two consecutive amounths.
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  Speaker 3: Services sector is a bit of a standout amongst their partners,
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  Speaker 3: but in a bad way, and that it's still going
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  Speaker 3: backwards for ten months now, so let's get those right
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  Speaker 3: cats going on.
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  Speaker 2: I'm speaking my language, berbery. Their demand is up for
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  Speaker 2: their goods and their share price has jumped as well.
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  Speaker 2: Obviously the host has been busy on his holiday.
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  Speaker 3: Clearly he has been. Yes, she's a ten percent there
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  Speaker 3: on Friday year back in Vogue, it's had a bit
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  Speaker 3: of a checkered time of it over the last year
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  Speaker 3: or so. But sales in the three months to decend,
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  Speaker 3: but they declined four percent, but they had forecasts for
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  Speaker 3: a decline of twelve percent, so that was a lot
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  Speaker 3: better than expected. The festive shopping period went pretty well,
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  Speaker 3: and again I suppose consistent with some of the avadad
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  Speaker 3: and just talked about sales ticked up in America America.
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  Speaker 3: This is a bit of a resurgency here across the
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  Speaker 3: luxury goods seet down. There's a view that, you know,
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  Speaker 3: Trump's initials will keep that spending go. I mean when
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  Speaker 3: we look at Bary in particular, it's had four CEOs
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  Speaker 3: of the past decade, literally been around for the nearly
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  Speaker 3: one hundred and seveny years. So they've got another CEO
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  Speaker 3: having a crack at trying to reinvigorate thinga of course,
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  Speaker 3: very much an iconic brand, but did get dealt a
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  Speaker 3: bit of a blow to its image as the working
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  Speaker 3: class sort of got into the check and stuff in
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  Speaker 3: nineties and two thousands. But they're looking to appeal to
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  Speaker 3: a wider market. It seems a lowering pricing. They're focusing
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  Speaker 3: on promoting quality and the heritage of its products. So
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  Speaker 3: we'll see how it goes. But generally the actually good
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  Speaker 3: sector Ryan appears to be turning around here. Cartiown and
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  Speaker 3: Richmond also have the highest quarterly sales ever, so yeah,
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  Speaker 3: things are turning around.
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  Speaker 2: A bit interesting back home, things looking up for the
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  Speaker 2: red meat sector.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah that's right. So yeah, we know that pricing is
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  Speaker 3: going pretty well in the dairy sector, but it's also
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  Speaker 3: looking up for red meats. This is Rubbobanks twenty twenty
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  Speaker 3: five Global Animal Protein Outlook, and its just talked about
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  Speaker 3: pricing picking up on a love production smaller herds sees
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  Speaker 3: beef production declining six percent, and twenty twenty five points
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  Speaker 3: out that beef was a money maker for New Zealand
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  Speaker 3: red meat exports last year. Farmgate returns climbed to twenty
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  Speaker 3: percent above five year averages. It's on track to remain
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  Speaker 3: there this year. There's some official drivers here to production
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  Speaker 3: in the US that's contracting, also slowing the likes of
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  Speaker 3: Brazil and China. That's good news for our red meat
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  Speaker 3: farmer is going to help them. On a little bit
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  Speaker 3: of a different story. For sheep meat, returns were down
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  Speaker 3: seven percent last year despite volumes being up. Prices at
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  Speaker 3: are cyclical low. In fact, there as much as twenty
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  Speaker 3: percent below five averages. But yeah, good news here as well.
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  Speaker 3: Ryan pricing has improved recently, and we've also got higher
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  Speaker 3: volumes going in to markets outside of China, particularly the US,
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  Speaker 3: Europe and the UK. And also we've got declining cheap
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  Speaker 3: numbers as well, so that's sort of flying through to pricing.
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  Speaker 3: They're also pointing out the animal production. Animal protein production
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  Speaker 3: over all this year set to grow, driven by poultry.
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  Speaker 3: Also a bit of a rebound in seafood, and I
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  Speaker 3: guess the week of Kiwi dollar is also good news
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  Speaker 3: for our egg exporters. The wild card and all this,
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  Speaker 3: you know, what does Trump do and what it had
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  Speaker 3: a protections measures play out? Well, I guess we have
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  Speaker 3: to wait and see there.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll take the good news for now, though, won't
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  Speaker 2: we Let's take a look at the numbers green.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, so the US market paused on Friday in terms
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  Speaker 3: of the rally, but you had a good week, back
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  Speaker 3: to back weekly gains. So downdown point three percent, forty
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  Speaker 3: four four two four s and P five hundred also
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  Speaker 3: down point three percent. Na's that down half percent, foot
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  Speaker 3: Sea down points seven percent, the Nika was down point
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  Speaker 3: one percent in Japan. The ASEX two hundred was down
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  Speaker 3: point four percent. Across the Tasman INSX fifty we were
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  Speaker 3: down point three percent. Thirteen zero two four. Notable Movie
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  Speaker 3: was similarly it was up nineteen percent. Back to profitability,
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  Speaker 3: it seems. And the commodities markets goal is up fifteen
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  Speaker 3: dollars two thousand, seven hundred and seventy and ounce oil
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  Speaker 3: flat seventy four spots sixty six a barrel. Just in
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  Speaker 3: the currency market, it's the key. We was up against
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  Speaker 3: the US fifty seven point one, were also up against
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  Speaker 3: Ossie ninety point four and against Stirling. We went down
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  Speaker 3: half percent forty five point seven this week plenty going on.
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  Speaker 3: We've got trade data, business consume conference reads has naturally,
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  Speaker 3: we got ours inflation US inflation, European gb GDP, we've
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  Speaker 3: got the ECB rate decision. Of course, we've got the
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  Speaker 3: FED meeting as well, and you look at earnings. Lots
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  Speaker 3: going on in big tech thereon, We've got none is
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  Speaker 3: from Microsoft, Meta, Tesla and Apple.
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  Speaker 2: All the big ones. Thanks so much, Greg, Greg Smith,
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  Speaker 2: Davins Funds Management.
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