Latest / Toadstool Sports / Friday BEST BETS | Baseball's Back | MLB & WNBA | 7/17/26

Transcript

Friday BEST BETS | Baseball's Back | MLB & WNBA | 7/17/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: Man, a hole in your chips, the black coffee on
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: the felt man, you look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 3: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 4: Now you stare at the chips.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Like they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 4: But don't you go quiet?
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: Don't you fade from the floor. Your name still mean
• 0:39
  Speaker 3: something in somebody for show?
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Put the glass down, baby, look at me, now, hold on,
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: hold on nothing nice, now, hold.
• 0:58
  Speaker 5: On, hold on me for.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: But it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 5: Hold on, hold on and stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 4: Now, what's up? Everybody? It's towed back with you with
• 1:29
  Speaker 4: Toadstool Sports for Friday, July seventeenth. I think I need
• 1:33
  Speaker 4: to change something about the audio levels here. Maybe just
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: turn the music down or something a little bit. It's
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: way louder than I am, dirty sock, what's up? Thanks
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: for hanging out? Not happy about having a handicap an
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: entire baseball board today, and it's not one that I
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: like really at all. My voice is just gonna be awful.
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: I don't know what to tell you. This is gonna
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: be bad. We won with the one play on the
• 2:00
  Speaker 4: show yesterday with the New York Mets. That was a winner.
• 2:05
  Speaker 4: Christian Scott was good. He went five to third shutout innings.
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: Mets bullpen took over and also was good. Aaron Nola
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: wasn't particularly bad in the game, but he was worse
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: than Scott, although he lasted longer, but he gave up
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: some runs. Mets never trailed in the game. They won
• 2:21
  Speaker 4: four to one. All right, getting into today, I'm gonna
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: have one play and it's gonna beat right now immediately,
• 2:31
  Speaker 4: because there's a doubleheader with my Boston Red Sox against
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay. And I think there is a way to
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: attack game one here and that is what I'm gonna do.
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: So here's the play. It's the only play of the day.
• 2:49
  Speaker 4: This is game one. It's gonna be Tampa Bay first
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: five innings of plus one to five. Let me specify
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: this as game one though we don't even know who's
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: pitching in Game two yet really, so Red Sox and
• 3:00
  Speaker 4: Bay obviously have some sort of makeup game happening here
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: in Boston. But yeah, the afternoon game, we're gonna say,
• 3:06
  Speaker 4: take Tampa on the money line in the first five.
• 3:08
  Speaker 4: I found it at an underdog price at one of
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: the main books out there. It's gonna be a cheap
• 3:14
  Speaker 4: price regardless, But I want to exclude Tampa Bay's bullpen here.
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: Their bullpen, I know the ranks sixth here, they're not
• 3:22
  Speaker 4: really that good though Red Sox are the better bullpen,
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: They're third, So I will take the advantage of the
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: Red Sox have out of the equation and focus on
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: where most of the disadvantages are. Red Sox are also
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: not that good at hitting. They're twenty third, Tampa Bay ninth,
• 3:38
  Speaker 4: so Red Sox are not better in that department either.
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: They haven't hit well at home either. And this is
• 3:43
  Speaker 4: a situational play. We know that so teams are coming
• 3:46
  Speaker 4: out of the All Star Break. So what I always
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: say is, I like to look at what did this
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: team do going into the All Star break, And if
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: a team went into the All Star Break really hot, hint,
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: I think the break can end that momentum and that
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: could hurt that team in the first game out of
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: the break. Whereas I think if a team went into
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: the break on a really bad note, I think that
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: the break can actually help them and they can end
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: that losing momentum. So it's like what I talk about
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: with buys in football, basically, so that's what I like
• 4:16
  Speaker 4: to look for. I will also say that off of
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: an extended break, I lean unders more so than over.
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: Is just generally because the bullpens are going to be
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: rested in that first game and the hitting might be
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: a little bit out of sync because they have the
• 4:30
  Speaker 4: hitters haven't hit for a while except for the ones
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: that were in the All Star Game and stuff. So
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: that's generally what I like to look at here. The
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: Red Sox, like I said, they were the hottest team
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: going into the break. They won nine games in a row,
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: all on the road. Historic road trip for them basically
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: because they've only done that one other time in team history.
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: Winning all games on a nine plus game road trip,
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: which yes, also means they're returning home for road trip,
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: so I think that's also negative, even though the last
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: leg of that was only coming back from New York
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: but from the Mets. But still it's a return home spot.
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: You got to get back to home life. It could
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: be a distraction. Some of these guys wound up playing
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: in the All Star Game or were involved in the
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: All Star festivities or the home run derby, whatever, so
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: some of these guys had to go to Philadelphia I
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: think it's a distraction, so I think it's a negative,
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: even though the one thing that might alleviate that a
• 5:23
  Speaker 4: little bit is that Tampa Bay is winning the AL
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: East and the Red Sox are in third place believe
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: it or not, currently in the AL East now and
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: a half game out of the wildcard spot. I think
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: the last wildcard, which is pretty crazy to think about.
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: They're almost a five hundred. I don't think this is
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: a good spot for them, man, I think they're winning.
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: Momentum is going to be disrupted here. I don't like
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: the return home spot, even though, yeah, Tampa Bay shouldn't
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: be a team that they would normally overlook, but this
• 5:51
  Speaker 4: might be a spot where it happens. The Red Sox
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: also still haven't been very good at home. They've been
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: better on the road. I don't know why. Usually that's
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: not the case, but they're seventeen to twenty seven at home.
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: That's not good, even though Tampa Bay is not that
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: good on the road. They're below five hundred, but better
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: than what the Red Sox home record is. Tampa Bay
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: lost their last game, so they might be in more
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: of a positive spot here. They're starting a road trip,
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: which I think is a positive usually focus to start
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: a road trip. So Tampa Bay lost the last game
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: to Seattle prior to the road trip or prior to
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: the break, So I think that the situation I'll set
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: up is good for Tampa Bay here. And I'm actually
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: gonna back Griffin Jacks here, even though he's kind of
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: a mediocre pitcher, but he's been pretty solid for Tampa
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: Bay as a converted reliever, a three point four to
• 6:39
  Speaker 4: seven ERA one point two to three whip. He's been
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: a little bit better on the road at least ERA
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: wise three point twenty four A, though his opponent batting
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: average is higher on the road, but he's generally been
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: pretty good. Some kind of questionable walk numbers at a
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: couple of these starts, but just as a whole, I mean,
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: he's not allowed many runs at all. He's got a
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: low hit rate, low walk rate. His strikeout rate is
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: actually fairly high too, so across the board, numbers look
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: pretty good, and the Red Sox have not had success
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: against him in twenty six career at bats two thirty
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: one average, six forty four oh ps, six to one
• 7:16
  Speaker 4: strike out walk ratio. Basically only William Abraho has really
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: done any damage against him, so Jax might pitch well here,
• 7:24
  Speaker 4: Jake Bennett is pitching for the Red Sox, and you
• 7:26
  Speaker 4: might say, well, wait a minute, why are you fading Bennett?
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: He's good? Yes, I agree he is. He's having a
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: good season so far. I believe he is a rookie.
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: Two point six four ERA point nine to four whip
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: that's good. He is a little bit worse at home
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: three point two seven home ra still not bad. Looked
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: really good over his last few starts going into the
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: All Star break. He's been good for quite a while.
• 7:49
  Speaker 4: He only has two starts on the season where he's
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: allowed more than two earned runs. Guess who Both of
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: those starts came against, Yeah, Tampa Bay. So his two
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: not so good starts on the season both were against
• 8:02
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay and one on the road, one at home.
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: Granted that was early. You know, it was his second
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: and third start of the season. He's probably better now
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: than he was then, but that still doesn't look very good.
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: Even though overall he's got good numbers here, low hit rate,
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: low walk rate. His strikeout rate is not high though,
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: so Bennett does not really strike out a lot of guys,
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: but he's been very successful so far. However, Tampa Bay
• 8:26
  Speaker 4: is the team that has seen him the most and
• 8:29
  Speaker 4: they've had the most success off him so far. They've
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: got thirty five at bats against him, a three forty
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: three average, seven to ninety five ohps, four to three
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio, So his numbers not very good there.
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: That's gonna be my play Tampa Bay in Game one.
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: In the first five only money line Red Sox have
• 8:49
  Speaker 4: sixty four percent of tickets public actually playing the Red Sox.
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: I don't even know if I buy that. I mean
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: maybe because the Red Sox have been really hot, but
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: I don't know, because you're looking at Tampa Babe being
• 9:00
  Speaker 4: an underdog in the game here, like, do you really
• 9:03
  Speaker 4: think that Tampa Bay as the team with the better
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: record as an underdog? Are they really not? The public side?
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: I don't know about that, but the market read does
• 9:11
  Speaker 4: look like it agrees with me on this. Fifty to
• 9:13
  Speaker 4: fifty on the cash Red Sox small favorite total in
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: the game is around nine. No, actually, wait what Actually
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: it's kind of all over the place. It looks like
• 9:24
  Speaker 4: it's between eight and nine. I don't know what's going
• 9:26
  Speaker 4: on with the total there. The main online books have
• 9:29
  Speaker 4: it at eight and a half or nine, but some
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: of the Sharper books are at eight, which makes it
• 9:33
  Speaker 4: look like the sharp lean is kind of towards the
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: under there. I mean, I could see why, like you
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: could make the argument both pitchers should do well here,
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: so there's probably more of an argument for the under
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: than the over. But yeah, that's my play. It's my
• 9:47
  Speaker 4: only play of the day. And then Game two, which
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: will be at night. We don't even know what's going
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: on in this game. Mason Angler is listed as a
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: starter for Tampa Bay in Game two, and he is
• 9:57
  Speaker 4: a converted reliever, so it looks like it's kind of
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: a bull pen game for Tampa Bay in Game two.
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: And then the Red Sox, we don't know what they're
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: doing because half they're starting pitching is hurt right now. Crochet,
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: Early and Soarez are all injured for the Red Sox
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: right now, So I have no idea who's pitching for
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox in Game two. It could be a
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: number of people. Because this is the other thing about
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: the coming out of the All Star Break, teams might
• 10:22
  Speaker 4: shift their rotation around, you know what I mean, Because
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: basically everybody has rest, so I don't know what's gonna happen.
• 10:29
  Speaker 4: Game two is very unpredictable. It looks like both teams
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: are actually listed as undecided on the board right now.
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: A couple of books do have a line out. Basically,
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: it's just a pick em price in a total of
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: eight and a half. So really it's just the books
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: kind of just throwing up a number, like you decide
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: basically what you think about this game. No way I
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: want to have anything to do with that game. Although
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: usually when I talk about double headers, I talk about
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: how there's bullpen usage in game one, which can affect
• 10:58
  Speaker 4: game two a bit. So game twos. I tend to
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: slightly look more towards overs in game two, but it's
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: not something I'm interested in. Dodgers and Yankees a repeat
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: of the World Series from two years ago. MLB Network,
• 11:13
  Speaker 4: it's gonna be one of the big series of the weekend.
• 11:15
  Speaker 4: Here potential World Series preview. This pitching matchup just right
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: on the surface, this looks like the pitching matchup favors
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: of the Yankees pretty heavily to me, and the Dodgers
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: are actually favored, which seems a bit ridiculous to me, although, yeah,
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: I mean, I don't know, man. I mean, the Yankees
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: have had a good bullpen. They're number two in bullpen,
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: Dodgers are seventh. So both teams have been pretty good
• 11:40
  Speaker 4: in the bullpen. Dodgers are the number one offense. Yankees
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: are number six, tied with Miami. We know, like we're
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: looking at two of the top teams in baseball. Both
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: teams have good offenses, both teams have a good bullpen.
• 11:52
  Speaker 4: Dodgers are going with Roki Sasaki though, and I don't
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: think that's a good thing. I mean, he's he had
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: a stretchery start pitching better, but he's been knocked off
• 12:02
  Speaker 4: of that. Uh. I won't say it's a pedestal, but
• 12:05
  Speaker 4: I think his mental state has been destroyed again. And
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: he's not pitching well. Five point three to three RA,
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: one point three to six whip not very good. He's
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: not good on the road six point two to five,
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: Roady Ray. This is gonna be a very difficult assignment
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: for him here. He pitched pretty well last time out
• 12:23
  Speaker 4: against the Rockies at home, but I'm not gonna put
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: that much weight into that. He had a bunch of
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: bad starts in a row prior to that. I'm not
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: gonna say he's pitching well again all of a sudden.
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: His strike gout rate is fine, though his hit rate
• 12:34
  Speaker 4: is actually pretty decent as well as walk rate is
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: a bit high. That's his main issue is the walks
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: and then home runs. He allows a lot of home runs,
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: which is a little bit odd because his fly ball
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: rate isn't really that high. Yankees have never faced him before,
• 12:50
  Speaker 4: so he does have an unfamiliarity edge where I talk about,
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: you know, a young pitcher, if they haven't been seen
• 12:54
  Speaker 4: before by the opposing offense, that can be an advantage
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: to that pitcher. I'm not sure it's gonna be enough
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: here though. I mean, he's in the bat of his
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: home road splitz. He's not a very good pitcher, and
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: he's gonna have to go up against the veteran Garrett Cole,
• 13:08
  Speaker 4: who you know isn't what he once was, but he
• 13:10
  Speaker 4: is still pitching pretty well. He's got a four point
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: zero four ERA one point two whip. I mean, I
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: know that's kind of mediocre, but he's been good at
• 13:18
  Speaker 4: home three point two to two home y ra. So
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: the home road splits definitely favor Cole in this matchup.
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: He was good in his last two starts thirteen to
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: one strike out walk ratio over that span. That's not bad.
• 13:30
  Speaker 4: In fact, his walk rate's been pretty low in four
• 13:33
  Speaker 4: starts in a row here, even though he allowed some
• 13:35
  Speaker 4: runs in the two starts prior to those. His hit
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: rate is fine, it's like it's a little bit less
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: than one per inning. His walk rates all right as well,
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: that's fine. Strike out rate is okay as well. Like again,
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: he's got decent numbers here. He's still a good pitcher,
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: but no longer a great pitcher, is what I would say.
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: And he does have good numbers in his career against
• 13:55
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers' hitters who have seen him. They have one
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: hundred and thirty eight at bats against him, average six
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: to fifty before ops, thirty five to thirteen strike out
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: walk ratio is not that good, but the rest of
• 14:05
  Speaker 4: these numbers are pretty good. Again, a lot of those
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: numbers are from back when he was better than he
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: is now. But for me, I mean, the starting pitching
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: looks like it favors the Yankees pretty significantly in my opinion.
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: The Yankees are returning over from a road trip, though,
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: so that is somebody to keep in mind, they went
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: to Tampa Bay and Washington, so I don't like teams
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: returning over from road trips. However, playing the Dodgers might
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: alleviate that distraction a little bit, you know. Although the
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: Yankees could have their momentum disrupted too, because they had
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: a four game win streak going into the break, so
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: I don't like that either. So situationally, there are some
• 14:42
  Speaker 4: negatives for the Yankees here. For the Dodgers, they're in
• 14:46
  Speaker 4: a positive situation because they lost all three games against Arizona.
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: They got swept at home in their last series. That's ridiculous.
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: The Dodgers are a big favorite in every one of
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: those games. I don't know what happened in that series,
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: So for them it might be a positive just get
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: out of home and go on the road. So situation
• 15:05
  Speaker 4: I think the situation favors the Dodgers here, but the
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: starting pitching clearly favors the Yankees. So it's one of
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: those games where which one of those is gonna win out?
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: I'm not gonna try to tell you. I tend to
• 15:18
  Speaker 4: think the matchup actually should win out here. I would
• 15:22
  Speaker 4: lean to the Yankees here. Like again, you're also getting
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: him as a slight underdog with Cole versus Sasaki. I mean,
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: that just seems ridiculous to me. Public looks like they're
• 15:32
  Speaker 4: somewhat on the Dodgers here sixty nine percent of tickets,
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: but money also coming in on them at seventy four percent,
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: money backing the over a little bit at nine. I
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: don't have a good read on that total though, but
• 15:44
  Speaker 4: there are a lot of conflicting factors on the side.
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: There are some in this game too, Pittsburgh and Cleveland.
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: When I first looked at this, it looks like a
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: bad spot for Cleveland. They were turning home from a
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: two series road trip where they went to Minnesota and Miami.
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: They won the last four games going into the break,
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: so again, they could have their momentum stalled out a
• 16:04
  Speaker 4: little bit. They could be in a little bit a
• 16:06
  Speaker 4: bit of a distracted spot here. They're tied with Chicago
• 16:09
  Speaker 4: above the Ale Center right now. Now they're facing an
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: inter league series here, So maybe not a great spot
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: for Cleveland, even though Pittsburgh has been kind of a
• 16:19
  Speaker 4: hype team this year because they're improved. Obviously, Pittsburgh did
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: just sweep Milwaukee, though that was a big sweep for Pittsburgh,
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: so they could be in a letdown spot too, even
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: though they're starting a road trip, which is a positive.
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: So I think the spot is still better for Pittsburgh,
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: but they could be in a letdown still off a
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: huge sweep in the division over Minnesota. Milwaukee excuse me,
• 16:42
  Speaker 4: not Milwaukee. Cleveland excuse me, has the better of bullpen
• 16:45
  Speaker 4: here the rank sixteenth, Pittsburgh is where are they twenty second? Yeah,
• 16:51
  Speaker 4: so Milwaukee they got the better bullpen. Pittsburgh is the
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: better off or is Cleveland? Excuse me not? Milwaukee does too,
• 16:57
  Speaker 4: but Cleveland, excuse me. Pittsburgh guys the better offense they
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: are where are they at number two? And Cleveland is
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: the second worst at twenty nine, So probably the biggest
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: offensive disparity that we're gonna see over the weekend as
• 17:11
  Speaker 4: this series. Pittsburgh's got Jared Jones going. I think Jones
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: is he might be a bit under the radar right
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: now man four point three seventy R, but one point
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: one four whip tells you that he's pitched better than
• 17:24
  Speaker 4: his era suggests. He was pretty good in his first
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: season in the majors prior to the injury issues. That
• 17:31
  Speaker 4: he had to cause him to miss all of last year.
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: He's been pretty decent on the road so far, three
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: point nine to four road Era. Now the question is
• 17:40
  Speaker 4: how is he gonna respond to his last outing, because
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: as you can see here, he went six shutout innings
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: against the Braves. But not only that, but they took
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: him out of a perfect game with only seventy seven pitches,
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: by the way, Like how do you take somebody out
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: of a perfect game? You know what I mean? Like,
• 17:58
  Speaker 4: let him go for history, man, seven pitches, that's not
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: that much. Like he was pitching really efficiently. They should
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: have let him go until he gave up a hit.
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: You know, if you want to take him out after
• 18:08
  Speaker 4: he gives up a hit or a walk, and we'll
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: probably I would say a hit because you still got
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: the no hitter going. I think that's fine. But I
• 18:14
  Speaker 4: think you let him try for it, man, you know
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: what I mean. I understand. You know it was a
• 18:18
  Speaker 4: close game, but they were losing the game. They lost
• 18:20
  Speaker 4: three to nothing, so I don't know. Or actually he
• 18:23
  Speaker 4: didn't take the loss though, so he didn't give up
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: any of the runs. So actually they should have left
• 18:28
  Speaker 4: him in because the bullpen gave up all three runs.
• 18:30
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh's bullpen sucks anyway. The question is how is Jones
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: gonna respond to that, because sometimes when a guy is
• 18:36
  Speaker 4: that close to having a perfect game or no hitter,
• 18:39
  Speaker 4: sometimes he'll be in a letdown spot after that. But
• 18:42
  Speaker 4: he didn't lose the no hitter or the perfect game.
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: He got taken out. So sometimes, you know, if that's
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: the case and he didn't throw that many pitches, maybe
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: he'll want to go out there and go again and
• 18:52
  Speaker 4: you know, prove something. After he got taken out early,
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: maybe he's angry and will be focused. You know, it's
• 18:58
  Speaker 4: hard to say, but it is a good sign that
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: he's pitching better here over his last two starts fourteen strikeouts,
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: two walks. But they do still have him on a
• 19:06
  Speaker 4: bit of a pitch count here, so that's something to
• 19:08
  Speaker 4: keep in mind. His overall numbers are not too bad
• 19:11
  Speaker 4: right now, low hit rate, his walk rate is okay.
• 19:15
  Speaker 4: Strike out rate is fairly high at this point too,
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: So I think Jones is coming around again. Hasn't been
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: good against Cleveland, but they only have two hitters of
• 19:22
  Speaker 4: seeing him seven at bats four to twenty nine average
• 19:26
  Speaker 4: fifteen hundred oh ps Hoskins has a home run off
• 19:28
  Speaker 4: him one to one strikeout walk ratio, but I don't
• 19:31
  Speaker 4: think there's much to take away from that. It's a
• 19:34
  Speaker 4: really small sample size. I don't think that really matters.
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: Gavin Williams is pitching for Cleveland, though he's probably the
• 19:40
  Speaker 4: better of the two pitchers. He's been really good this season,
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: so he's the more established pitcher at this point. Three
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: point eight twenty ra one point one five whip three
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: ERA at home. That is pretty good. Seventeen strikeouts and
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: three walks, and his last two starts combined that's pretty good,
• 19:57
  Speaker 4: so he's striking a lot of guys out. He's not
• 19:59
  Speaker 4: allowing it to of runs here. Had kind of one
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: bad start recently against Milwaukee, but other than that, he's
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: been pretty good for a while now. He's got a
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: low hit rate, his walk rate is not too bad either.
• 20:10
  Speaker 4: Strikeout rate is also high. So really his numbers across
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: the board here are pretty good. Against Pittsburgh, his numbers
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: are a little bit weird. They only have five at
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: bats against him, so it's a small sample size. Twenty
• 20:22
  Speaker 4: three twenty three at bats six to one strike out
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: walk ratio two sixty one average nine hundred OPS allowed,
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: so the average isn't really that high, but the ops
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: is quite high. He's a lot of couple of home
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: runs in here to low in Ozona. So I don't
• 20:39
  Speaker 4: know what to expect here, man. I mean, on the surface,
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: to me, it kind of looks like this should be
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: an under type of game, and maybe it could be.
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: I mean, you have two pitchers that are in decent
• 20:49
  Speaker 4: form right now, who actually think are both decent pitchers.
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: The money is back in the over, but the totals
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: at seven and a half, so the oddsmakers are kind
• 20:57
  Speaker 4: of telling you they think this is going to be
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: a low scoring game. Again, it could be with the
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: hitters having had time off which could affect their timing negatively.
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: And you got rest of bullpens, although I don't like
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh's bullpen, so I think if you go first five,
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: I think if you go under here, I think maybe
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: first five makes more sense. But you're gonna be looking
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: at a three and a half there, and there's really
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: not a lot of wigger room there. Sixty percent of tickets,
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: seventy one percent of the cash on the over to
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: what you want with that, I think it could be
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: an underdown. The money is coming out on Pittsburgh pretty strongly,
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: sixty nine percent of tickets on Cleveland, ninety three percent
• 21:30
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Pittsburgh. I don't disagree with Pittsburgh.
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: I would go first five, though. If you do, Pittsburgh're
• 21:36
  Speaker 4: getting him as an underdog. Cleveland's about minus one twenty
• 21:39
  Speaker 4: something on the full game. They're gonna be less of
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: a favorite in the first five though, because that's where
• 21:46
  Speaker 4: like the big one of the big edges Cleveland has
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: is the bullpen here. So keep all of that in mind.
• 21:52
  Speaker 4: But I think Cleveland on the return home spot possible
• 21:55
  Speaker 4: letdown spot, probably more so on them than it is
• 21:58
  Speaker 4: on Pittsburgh. Yeah, I mean Pittsburgh first five makes some sense.
• 22:03
  Speaker 4: Or I think Jones might be a little bit under
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: the radar. All right, White Sox in Toronto on Apple TV.
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: Looking at this pitching matchup, I mean, this looked like
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: it could be an over to me looking at this matchup,
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: but I'm maybe not so sure about that. Toronto's were
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: turning on from a long road trip, or they were
• 22:21
  Speaker 4: on the West coast for three series. That is not good.
• 22:24
  Speaker 4: They might not have a lot of hitting in this game.
• 22:26
  Speaker 4: Just because that might affect they're hitting negatively. They're having
• 22:29
  Speaker 4: to go across three times zones here, they could be
• 22:32
  Speaker 4: distracted having to get back to home life whatever. Having
• 22:35
  Speaker 4: across three times zones. It's not gonna be easy for them,
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: so I think it's a negative spot for Toronto. The
• 22:42
  Speaker 4: White Sox, on the other hand, it's a better spot
• 22:44
  Speaker 4: for them because they're starting a road trip. But they
• 22:46
  Speaker 4: went into the All Star Break on a three game
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: win streak sweeping the A's, so the White Sox could
• 22:52
  Speaker 4: be maybe they could maybe have their momentum disrupted after that,
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: so that might not be great for them either. But
• 22:59
  Speaker 4: there's a arding a road trip, so I think generally
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: it is a more positive spot for them. I do
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: not like they're starting pitching in this game, though, and
• 23:06
  Speaker 4: I don't love the White Sox bullpen, although it is
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: actually not as bad right now. They're at eighteenth or
• 23:11
  Speaker 4: eras below four, so that's not too bad. Toronto's got
• 23:14
  Speaker 4: the better bullpen at eleventh and Vireland has actually been
• 23:17
  Speaker 4: really good as their closer, so something of note there.
• 23:22
  Speaker 4: Toronto's offense has been bad. They're at twenty six. They're
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: tied with Seattle, though I think Seattle's better than Toronto
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: is offensively, White Sox are the better offense here there
• 23:31
  Speaker 4: are at eleventh right now, but the White Sox are
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: going with Anthony Kay who I do not think is
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: a very good pitcher. A four point two to three ERA,
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: one point three to eight whip is not very good.
• 23:41
  Speaker 4: He's not been good on the road five point nine
• 23:44
  Speaker 4: to four road ERA. He's definitely struggling on the road.
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: He's not going too deep into most of his outings.
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: He's serviceable, you know. I mean, he's not going to
• 23:53
  Speaker 4: really put you out of a game in most cases.
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: But he's not great. I mean, his hit rates right
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: around one per inning is walker great is too high,
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: strike got rate is low, so he doesn't really fool
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: anybody against Toronto though, I mean, they're not a good offense.
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: They have seventeen at bats against them. They only have
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: a one to eighteen average and five oh five ohps
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: one to two strike out walk ratio, so they have
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: not really had success against him. On the offensive side
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: of things, vlad Guerrero does have a home run off him,
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: that's the only extra base hit, so maybe he will
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: do well in this specific matchup. Toronto's going with Spencer Miles,
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: which is sort of a bullpen game. He's kind of
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: a converter reliever, but he's been pretty good. It's just
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: that he doesn't go that deep into these games. But
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: Toronto has actually pitched well in a lot of his
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: bullpen games. So we'll see, Like I think I've gotten
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: caught trying to fade his bullpen games a couple of times. Here,
• 24:46
  Speaker 4: we'll see what happens. But you know, Toronto, with the
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: rest of bullpen, their bullpen's actually decent. Toronto might have
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: a little bit of an advantage because of that, but
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: I really wouldn't want them on the return home spot.
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: So yeah, this is a tough game to figure out
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: what to do. I mean, it could actually be an
• 25:02
  Speaker 4: under Believe it or not, I think I would, you know,
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: I mean, neither bullpen is really that bad either. I mean,
• 25:08
  Speaker 4: you might be able to play a full game under here,
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: and the money's actually agreeing with that fifty two percent
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: of ticket seventy three percent of the cash on the
• 25:15
  Speaker 4: under eight and a half. Both pitching setups look really
• 25:20
  Speaker 4: bad on the surface. When you dig into those numbers,
• 25:22
  Speaker 4: you could see it doesn't really look that bad, so
• 25:27
  Speaker 4: maybe an under makes sense there. I wouldn't really want
• 25:29
  Speaker 4: to do it, but again, given the situation and the
• 25:32
  Speaker 4: rest possibly affecting the hitters, timing and whatever and rest
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: of bullpens, it could be money is back in Toronto.
• 25:40
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think I prefer Miles and Toronto's pitching
• 25:44
  Speaker 4: matchup over a K here. Just you know, I just
• 25:47
  Speaker 4: don't really see K doing that well on the road necessarily,
• 25:51
  Speaker 4: even though I know I just said the under might
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: be worth a look. Here, sixty two ticket seventy five
• 25:56
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on Toronto, they're at about minus
• 25:58
  Speaker 4: one thirty something here. I think if you play Toronto
• 26:01
  Speaker 4: full game makes sense because they do have the better
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: bullpen still, but I would not want to play them
• 26:06
  Speaker 4: in a return home spot like that either, so I
• 26:08
  Speaker 4: can't do that either. I think Chicago has some situational
• 26:11
  Speaker 4: advantages there, but Toronto probably has the better pitching set
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: up there. Texas and Atlanta. On the surface, this looks
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: like a huge pitching advantage to Atlanta, although maybe it's not,
• 26:23
  Speaker 4: and I would not pay the price that you're being
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: asked to pay on Atlanta. Here, Atlanta's returning on from
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: a road trip what else is new, so that may
• 26:31
  Speaker 4: not be good. They went to Pittsburgh and Saint Louis,
• 26:34
  Speaker 4: so it could be a bit of a distraction coming
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: back home. They're playing an out of league game here,
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: an interleague game. Texas is starting a road trip with
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: a little bit of momentum. Although they did not end
• 26:46
  Speaker 4: they did not go into the break on a win streak.
• 26:49
  Speaker 4: They only won their last game against Houston, so that's
• 26:52
  Speaker 4: not horrible for Texas, so I think the spot is
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: better for Texas here. Starting I always default to leaning
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: towards the team that's starting road trip against the team
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: that's returning from one, so that would end me looking
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: at Texas. Both bullpens have been good. Atlanta's number one,
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: Texas is number thirteen. They've struggled recently, but I think
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: maybe the break will help them. They're a pretty good bullpen,
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: so I think they're better than thirteenth. Atlanta dropped off
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: offensively going into the break. They're fourteenth, tied with Baltimore,
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: which is mediocre. Texas is still the worst offensive they
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: had moved up to seventeenth, but I don't think they're
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: that good of an offense. Atlanta hasn't been that good
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: at home offensively, though Texas is going with Cal Quantrill here.
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: I tried to fade him on his last start here
• 27:39
  Speaker 4: on the show, and he did better than we thought
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: he would, even though he hasn't been really striking anybody
• 27:44
  Speaker 4: out but Quantrell, He's got some decent numbers here. Three
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: point one one ERA, one point one four whip. Some
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: of that was coming out of the bullpen, though I
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: think most of it was coming out of the bullpen.
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: He's been pretty good on the road two point one
• 27:57
  Speaker 4: four road the ra he went at least five innings
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: in his last two starts and allowed three runs combined
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: over eleven innings. That's not bad, but he basically got
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: no strikeouts over that span, so he's not fooling hitters.
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: But he is limiting the damage here quite a bit.
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: He's got a low hit rate, so that's good. His
• 28:13
  Speaker 4: walk rate is also reasonably low. Strikeout rate is low.
• 28:16
  Speaker 4: Like I said, he does not strike guys out against Atlanta.
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: He's had some success in fifty seven at bats to
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: twenty eight average allowed seven H five ops six to
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: six strikeout walk ratio is not good, but the rest
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: of those numbers are actually reasonably good, so Quantroll might
• 28:34
  Speaker 4: actually not pitch that bad here. He is going up
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: against Chris Sale, who is obviously the better pitcher here,
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: which is why I said this looks like a mismatch,
• 28:42
  Speaker 4: although when you dig into these numbers a little bit,
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: it looks like less of a mismatch than you would think. Uh,
• 28:47
  Speaker 4: two point two era for him, one point one to
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: one whip. He's been really good at home, one point
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: five to five home. Ray only went three innings at
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: his last start. I don't know if that was just
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: because he might pitch in the All Star Game or
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: some thing. I don't know what that was, but whatever,
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: they gave him a short start at Saint Louis. I
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: think he should be ready to go here. I'm not
• 29:07
  Speaker 4: too concerned by that. He's got a low hit rate,
• 29:10
  Speaker 4: a low walk rate, high strikeout rate, everything that you'd expect.
• 29:13
  Speaker 4: I mean, we know he's one of the better pitchers
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: in baseball, and he does have good numbers against Sexist
• 29:18
  Speaker 4: as well. In twenty seven at bats, they have no
• 29:20
  Speaker 4: extra base hits against him, eleven strikeouts, three walks. That's
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: all good win eighty five average, four fifty two ohps.
• 29:28
  Speaker 4: I think probably Under might might make sense in this game.
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: Let me see here, what does the market look like.
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: The market looks like it's backing the over though sixty
• 29:41
  Speaker 4: eight percent of tickets on the under, sixty four percent
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: of the cash on the over. The totals at eight here.
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: But again I think with the days off, that can
• 29:48
  Speaker 4: affect the hitting. I mean, neither of these teams have
• 29:51
  Speaker 4: been ripping the cover off the ball recently. He got
• 29:53
  Speaker 4: two bullpens that I consider to be good. One elite
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: starting pitcher and the other starting pitcher looks like he
• 30:00
  Speaker 4: up okay here and he's in decent forms. So I
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: think there are more signs towards an under than anything
• 30:05
  Speaker 4: else in this game. The situation favors Texas and Lanta
• 30:10
  Speaker 4: is about minus two ten here or so. I mean,
• 30:12
  Speaker 4: that is quite a price to let you know that
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: with a team like Atlanta with sale on the mountain,
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: you know you're gonna have to pay a price, and
• 30:19
  Speaker 4: you're not getting any value playing Atlanta here. I wouldn't
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: do it. Like. I think this game is probably closer
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: than the than the price would indicate. So and given
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: the situation that I think it could be a closer matchup,
• 30:33
  Speaker 4: you might be able to maybe try to look for
• 30:36
  Speaker 4: like a Texas run line or something and look for
• 30:38
  Speaker 4: Texas to keep this game close. But if you forced
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: me to give you a play on that game, but
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: I think I would play the under all right, Miami
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: and Milwaukee. Milwaukee is returning home from a road trip,
• 30:49
  Speaker 4: a long one where they went to Arizona, Saint Louis, Pittsburgh.
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: They got swept in Pittsburgh, so you might think, well,
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: that means the All Star breaks gonna break their losing momentum.
• 30:58
  Speaker 4: They should get back to playing better here. I think
• 31:02
  Speaker 4: that's what the public is gonna think. Though. The public
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: is gonna think, well, Pittsburgh is a decent team. Milwaukee,
• 31:07
  Speaker 4: now they're back at home, they should win, right, But
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: I'm not so sure about that because the return home spot,
• 31:13
  Speaker 4: it's still a negative. Dude, you can get distracted. You
• 31:15
  Speaker 4: have to get back to home life. I mean, Miami's
• 31:18
  Speaker 4: still a little bit of an under the radar team.
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: I think they're playing better than people thinking they're in
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: a better spot because they might break their losing momentum.
• 31:25
  Speaker 4: They just got swept by Cleveland, but they're starting a
• 31:28
  Speaker 4: road trip, so I think the spot is better for
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: Miami here, so that's kind of where I start. The
• 31:33
  Speaker 4: handicap is the situation looks better for Miami. We got
• 31:36
  Speaker 4: two pretty good bullpens here, Miami fourth, Milwaukee ninth. I
• 31:39
  Speaker 4: think Milwaukee's probably actually slightly better than Miami, though Miami
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: is sixth. Offensively, I don't think they're quite that good,
• 31:46
  Speaker 4: like I was talking about. I think their numbers got
• 31:48
  Speaker 4: skewed a little bit from playing in some really hit
• 31:51
  Speaker 4: or friendly ballparks. They've been a decent offense, though in
• 31:54
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee is also not bad at ninth, tied with Tampa Bay.
• 31:59
  Speaker 4: We have two capable offenses here, but I think we
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: also have two decent starting pitchers here. Miami's going with
• 32:06
  Speaker 4: Sandy al Contro. We backed him in the last game
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: that he pitched with an under and that one up
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: being a winner on the show. O Contra's pitching pretty
• 32:14
  Speaker 4: well recently, even though I always point out he's not
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: what he once was, back when he was like a
• 32:19
  Speaker 4: cy young caliber pitcher. He's not bad anymore, but he's
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: he looks like he's learned how to pitch with his limitations.
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: Here three point nine to nine ERA, one point two
• 32:29
  Speaker 4: to two whip. That's not bad. He isn't quite as
• 32:32
  Speaker 4: good on the road though, four point seven to six
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: Roadie Ray, so he's definitely more beatable on the road.
• 32:36
  Speaker 4: But he's been good recently sixteen to one strike out
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: walk ratio this month, and he had to pitch in
• 32:42
  Speaker 4: the A stadium in one of those starts, and then
• 32:44
  Speaker 4: he followed it up with a pretty good starting against
• 32:46
  Speaker 4: Cleveland last time out, which was the game where we
• 32:49
  Speaker 4: had an under correct in that game. He's got a
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: low strikeout right now, though he doesn't strike guys out anymore,
• 32:54
  Speaker 4: but his hit rates reasonably low, his walk rates pretty
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: low as well. And they're letting him throw a lot
• 33:00
  Speaker 4: of innings, man, I mean, he's a veteran, so they're
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: just letting him go. He's going deep into outings, so
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: he does grind, so that's good. And his numbers against
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee and his career are good. In seventy one at bats,
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: one fifty five average, four ninety five ops, fifteen to
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: seven strike out walker ratio is not good, but the
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: other numbers there are quite good. So over his career
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: he's been good against Milwaukee. Illy'll remember some of that
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: was back when he was an elite pitcher, which he's
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: not anymore, but I think he still matches up reasonably
• 33:30
  Speaker 4: well here and he's gonna be opposed by Logan Henderson,
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: and we back him in his last game as well.
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: I think I gave out a play on Milwaukee in
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: his last game and that was a win. Henderson's pretty
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: good man, and still nobody really knows who he is.
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: He's got a three point one eighty RA point nine
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: to nine whip that's pretty good. I think he pitched
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: a little bit last year too, and he looked pretty
• 33:50
  Speaker 4: good as well last year. He's been good at home
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: one point eight home y RA, so the home road
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: splits definitely favor Henderson here, but again I don't like
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: the situation with the return home spot for Milwaukee here.
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: Henderson's pitching well, though they're not really like totally unleashing
• 34:05
  Speaker 4: him here, like they got him on a little bit
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: of a pitch count. They're letting him go usually somewhere
• 34:09
  Speaker 4: around five innings and his out as He's faced some
• 34:12
  Speaker 4: pretty potent offenses here Dodgers, Yankees, and he's done pretty
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: well so Washington as well. Henderson looks like he might
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: be the real deal man. He's got a low hit rate,
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: low walk rate, strike cut rate is high, so he's
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: got the ability to fool major league hitters. That's all good.
• 34:30
  Speaker 4: And Miami has never faced him before, so that's another
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: advantage to him. He's unfamiliar to Miami, so, as you
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: could probably tell, I think the way that I would
• 34:39
  Speaker 4: look at this game first would be to play the under.
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: The totals at eight sixty two tickets ninety percent of
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: the cash on the over. But I like the under here, man,
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: And in fact, now I don't know, I'm thinking about
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: this more, and I'm I'm tempted, man, I'm tempted given
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: what the matchup looks like, and the money's backing Milwaukee.
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: By the way, it minus one fifty or so here
• 35:03
  Speaker 4: eighty six percent to take us ninety four percent of
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: the cash on them. I would agree with Milwaukee as
• 35:07
  Speaker 4: far as the matchup is concerned. I think they got
• 35:09
  Speaker 4: the better starter and the better the better bullpen here.
• 35:14
  Speaker 4: But it's I think it's a bit slight though, and
• 35:18
  Speaker 4: I don't think it's worth paying that price for it.
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: And like I said, they do not have a situational
• 35:22
  Speaker 4: edge here. The situation is not good for them, so
• 35:25
  Speaker 4: I would not play Milwaukee, but the under. The under
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: is interesting. You go under eight here, you got two
• 35:32
  Speaker 4: good bullpens rested. The hitters might be thrown a little
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: bit off here, even though generally these offense is a
• 35:38
  Speaker 4: pretty good hold on. Let me look at what I'm
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: looking at. What we what we're seeing on Action Network here,
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: it's tempting, dude, I'm not gonna lie, do we back?
• 35:51
  Speaker 4: I'll contra again another under even though he's not he's
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: not good on the road though. Man, that worries me
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: a little bit. This is like, this is right on
• 36:03
  Speaker 4: the cusp man of being a play for me. I mean,
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: actually network has like a slight tilt towards the under.
• 36:11
  Speaker 4: But as you can see here, this board is saying
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: the opposite here. Man, this is yeah. I mean, the
• 36:19
  Speaker 4: more that I think about it is it's really close
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: to a play for me. Should I leave it alone?
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: Though?
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: All right, we'll leave it alone. But man, that is close. Yeah,
• 36:30
  Speaker 4: I like the under in that one, all right, Minnesota
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: and the Cubs. On the surface, this one looked like
• 36:37
  Speaker 4: an over to me. And we got a fairly high
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: total here, which means wind is probably blowing out in
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: Wrigley field because you know, the wind affects these Wrigley
• 36:45
  Speaker 4: games quite a bit. Cubs are in a negative spot.
• 36:48
  Speaker 4: They're returning over from a road trip. They went to
• 36:50
  Speaker 4: Baltimore and Cincinnati. It's not really a huge travel leg here,
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: but they're still returning on from a road trip, which
• 36:55
  Speaker 4: I think is a negative. And are they really gonna
• 36:57
  Speaker 4: focus on the Minnesota Twins here? Probably not, so I
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: think it's a negative. Plus, they won the last two
• 37:04
  Speaker 4: games going into the break, so their momentum might be
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: stopped by the break, so I don't think it's a
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: good spot for the Cubs here. Minnesota, they went into
• 37:12
  Speaker 4: the break on a two game win streak too, so
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: they were playing pretty well. I think won six of
• 37:16
  Speaker 4: their last eight games, so their momentum might be a
• 37:18
  Speaker 4: little bit stalled out as well here now, But they're
• 37:20
  Speaker 4: starting a road trip, So I think the spot is
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: better for Minnesota than it is for Chicago, because I
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: think teams tend to focus more starting a road trip. Plus,
• 37:29
  Speaker 4: I think the Cubs are gonna draw your attention more
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: if you're Minnesota, So I will say that bullpen wise,
• 37:37
  Speaker 4: the Cubs are the better bullpen. They were struggling going
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: into the break though. They're fourteenth now, but the twins
• 37:42
  Speaker 4: bullpen is a disaster. They're twenty ninth, so the Cubs
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: definitely have the better bullpen. Still, hitting wise, the Cubs
• 37:49
  Speaker 4: are fourth. Their offense has been good, but the Twins
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: are not far behind at eighth. So we have two
• 37:55
  Speaker 4: capable offenses, one really bad bullpen, and I don't love
• 37:59
  Speaker 4: the start pitchers here, so it does look over ish
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: to me. At least Bailey Ober is pitching for the
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: Twins here. His whip is actually pretty good, though is
• 38:09
  Speaker 4: era four point four that's mediocre, but one point one
• 38:12
  Speaker 4: to nine whip is pretty good. Ober has been okay
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: the season, however, he's been way worse on the road
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: seven point six to six Roady Ray. That is not good,
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: to say the least. Pitch well in his last out him,
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: but of course it was at home against Cleveland, and
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: Cleveland is not a good offense, and he's better at home,
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: so that was that made sense. But prior to that
• 38:34
  Speaker 4: he had two roads starts that were not very good.
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: His last three road starts have all gone pretty poorly,
• 38:40
  Speaker 4: so that's not good obviously for him. In this game,
• 38:42
  Speaker 4: he does have a low hit rate on the season.
• 38:44
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is also low. Strikeout rate is low.
• 38:47
  Speaker 4: Though he doesn't strike guys out, he gives up a
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: lot of fly balls, so that might be a concern
• 38:51
  Speaker 4: in a wind blowing out situation and wriggling. Ober might
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: be a little bit home run vulnerable to the home
• 38:59
  Speaker 4: run here, I should say, So that might not be good.
• 39:02
  Speaker 4: So I do kind of lean against Ober here, although
• 39:05
  Speaker 4: I think he actually has good numbers against the Cubs.
• 39:07
  Speaker 4: I forgot to look at that. Yeah, the Cubs haven't
• 39:11
  Speaker 4: really seen much of him. They have eleven at bats
• 39:12
  Speaker 4: against them. They only have one hit, which is a
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: home run from Goodfort to they have three strikeouts, one walk,
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: oh ninety one average five to seventy eight ops. So
• 39:21
  Speaker 4: they are unfamiliar with Ober, and generally Ober has pitched
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: pretty well against them, So do what you want with
• 39:28
  Speaker 4: that info. But I still it's such a small sample
• 39:31
  Speaker 4: size them, man, and Ober's been around for a while,
• 39:34
  Speaker 4: so he's not really a mystery to hitters in these leagues.
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: So I don't know, Man, I tend to lean more
• 39:40
  Speaker 4: against Ober here. Colin Ray is pitching for the Cubs.
• 39:43
  Speaker 4: He's actually been good at home two point seven to
• 39:46
  Speaker 4: home here, so the home road splits definitely favor Ray
• 39:50
  Speaker 4: in this one. He's been okay. I mean, he's been
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: basically serviceable. He's got a four point seven five year
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: rail though I don't like his whip though, one point
• 39:59
  Speaker 4: four to five whip that's not good. But yeah, I mean,
• 40:02
  Speaker 4: he's not allowing that many runs here. Generally, his hit
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: rate is still too high, though his home run rate
• 40:07
  Speaker 4: is a little bit of a concern. He is a
• 40:09
  Speaker 4: little bit fly ball skewed, although not as much as
• 40:12
  Speaker 4: Over is, and he's got a low strikeout ran and
• 40:14
  Speaker 4: Ray it does not strike guys out. He's been good
• 40:17
  Speaker 4: against Minnesota though, in twenty seven at bats to twenty
• 40:20
  Speaker 4: two average six ninety four oh ps five to one
• 40:23
  Speaker 4: strike out walk ratio, so he's got good numbers there.
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: So both pitchers actually have decent matchup numbers. I don't
• 40:31
  Speaker 4: really think i'd want to try an under in this one, though,
• 40:34
  Speaker 4: and I think if you do go under, you should
• 40:36
  Speaker 4: go first five only because you know that, like Minnesota's
• 40:42
  Speaker 4: bullpen is just unbackable. But the money is actually back
• 40:45
  Speaker 4: in the under, believe it or not. The totals at
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: ten and a half, though, again when the oddsmakers put
• 40:49
  Speaker 4: up a total that high, they're telling you something with
• 40:51
  Speaker 4: a total that high, which in this case is the
• 40:53
  Speaker 4: wind is blowing out uh. Seventy six percent of tickets
• 40:57
  Speaker 4: on the under eighty eight percent of the cash on
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: the under. I still think there are more indicators towards
• 41:03
  Speaker 4: an over than an under man. I still don't really
• 41:05
  Speaker 4: trust either starter. Minnesota's bullpen's bad, the Cubs bullpen hasn't
• 41:09
  Speaker 4: been that good recently. I still think if you played
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: the total here, I think the over makes a little
• 41:14
  Speaker 4: bit more sense. The money's backing Minnesota seventy nine percent
• 41:17
  Speaker 4: of tickets on the Cubs, fifty six percent of the
• 41:20
  Speaker 4: cash on Minnesota. It's another one of those where Minnesota's
• 41:23
  Speaker 4: in the better situational spot, as I showed you, But
• 41:27
  Speaker 4: the Cubs probably have the better of the pitching matchup here,
• 41:30
  Speaker 4: just because the home road splits are pretty significant here.
• 41:33
  Speaker 4: So I would not really want to play Minnesota, and
• 41:35
  Speaker 4: if you do, I think you should only play the
• 41:36
  Speaker 4: first five on Minnesota. You'll get them in an underdog price.
• 41:40
  Speaker 4: I mean, Cubs are minus one forty something on the
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: full game. Probably they're less than that on the first five,
• 41:47
  Speaker 4: but you can't back Minnesota's bullpen man, you can't do it.
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: So that's what I think about that game. Next game
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: is Baltimore in Houston. Houston is returning home from a
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: road trip, which you gotta have more plays given all
• 42:02
  Speaker 4: these road trip return spots here, maybe I'd be too
• 42:06
  Speaker 4: selective though. I mean again, my next play that I
• 42:09
  Speaker 4: would give out would have been that under that I
• 42:11
  Speaker 4: talked about. Houston. They just went to Washington and the Texas,
• 42:15
  Speaker 4: So yeah, they're only returning home from Ireland to Texas,
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: which is not that big of a deal, but still
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: it's a return home spot. So it's I think still
• 42:24
  Speaker 4: a bit of a negative for Houston. Baltimore. They're starting
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: a road trip. But the problem is maybe they're momentum
• 42:32
  Speaker 4: might be stalled out by the break because they won
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: four games in a row going into the break, sweeping
• 42:37
  Speaker 4: Kansas City going into the break, and when you're playing
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: like that, you don't want to have a break, you know.
• 42:41
  Speaker 4: So Baltimore, their momentum might be disrupted. But I still
• 42:44
  Speaker 4: would prefer the team starting a road trip over the
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: team returning from a road trip. So that still has
• 42:51
  Speaker 4: me kind of looking towards Baltimore a little bit here.
• 42:54
  Speaker 4: Baltimore's bullpen mediocre their twelfth, but their era is not
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: really that good. Houston nineteenth. They started out the season
• 43:02
  Speaker 4: really bad. They got better, but they're still basically a
• 43:05
  Speaker 4: mediocre bullpen. I don't fully trust the bullpens here. Both
• 43:09
  Speaker 4: offenses are definitely capable. He was in thirteenth, Baltimore fourteenth,
• 43:14
  Speaker 4: Like I said, tied with Atlanta the starting pitchers, though
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: they might get the job done in this one. Baldimer
• 43:20
  Speaker 4: is going with Dean Kreamer, who has come back from injury.
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: While I think over his career he's been a mediocre pitcher,
• 43:27
  Speaker 4: He's looked decent so of our four point zero ninety
• 43:30
  Speaker 4: ra or better than decent. One whip is pretty good.
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: Not as good on the road though, four point five
• 43:36
  Speaker 4: Roady Ray. But we're looking at a really small sample
• 43:39
  Speaker 4: size here. He's pitched in four games so far. He
• 43:42
  Speaker 4: made two starts in April and then he was injured.
• 43:44
  Speaker 4: And he came back this month and he had one
• 43:47
  Speaker 4: good start against the White Sox and he had one
• 43:49
  Speaker 4: not so good start against the Cubs, so he faced
• 43:53
  Speaker 4: both Chicago teams. There still didn't still his walk rate
• 43:57
  Speaker 4: was really low though, so if you look at what
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: he's on on the season so far, he's got a
• 44:01
  Speaker 4: pretty low hit rate, his walk rates really low. Strike
• 44:04
  Speaker 4: out rate is actually fairly high, although strike out rate's
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: been lower since he's come back from injuries, So do
• 44:09
  Speaker 4: with that info what you want. I think he might
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: actually pitch okay here though. He's got decent numbers against
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: Houston and eighty eight at bats twenty one to four
• 44:17
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio. That's good. So his command has been
• 44:20
  Speaker 4: pretty good against them. Two fifty average, seven at fourteen
• 44:24
  Speaker 4: ops allowed that's not too bad either. I think Kreamer
• 44:27
  Speaker 4: might do well here, and Houston's going with Peter Lambert,
• 44:30
  Speaker 4: who basically has resurrected his career this season now that
• 44:35
  Speaker 4: he's finally not on Colorado. He's having a good season
• 44:37
  Speaker 4: three point one four ERA, one point one two whip.
• 44:41
  Speaker 4: He's a little bit worse at home three point three
• 44:43
  Speaker 4: to five. Homira is still not bad, though, pitched really
• 44:47
  Speaker 4: well in his last two starts. Going into the All
• 44:49
  Speaker 4: Star break. He was a little bit worse for a
• 44:51
  Speaker 4: couple of starts, but he bounced back nicely against Tampa
• 44:54
  Speaker 4: Bay and then at Texas. Although a lot of people
• 44:56
  Speaker 4: pitch well at Texas, but he was pitching pretty well.
• 44:59
  Speaker 4: He's been pretty good for the most part this season.
• 45:01
  Speaker 4: He's got a really low hit rate, so he's been
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: difficult to hit, but he does pitch to contact somewhat.
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: His strikeout rate is not too bad though. His walk
• 45:11
  Speaker 4: rate is probably his worst attribute. His walk rate is
• 45:14
  Speaker 4: a little bit too high, but generally he's got pretty
• 45:16
  Speaker 4: good numbers here and against Baltimore he has good numbers
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: twenty one at bats, not a huge sample here, but
• 45:23
  Speaker 4: they only have a one forty three average against him
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: a five thirty six ops five to three strike out
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: walk ratio, so Lambert has been successful against Baltimore this game.
• 45:33
  Speaker 4: I think an under might be worth a look here.
• 45:36
  Speaker 4: I'd probably say first five under though, because I think
• 45:40
  Speaker 4: the bullpens are you know, I mean, they're questionable enough
• 45:43
  Speaker 4: that maybe you want to leave them out. I think
• 45:45
  Speaker 4: the real advantage playing the under here, I think is
• 45:49
  Speaker 4: just with the starting pitchers totals at eight and a half,
• 45:51
  Speaker 4: so it's right there and no man's land there. Sixty
• 45:54
  Speaker 4: four percent of tickets ninety three percent of the cash
• 45:56
  Speaker 4: on the over, though, so the money is backing the over,
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: but I think in under in the first five might
• 46:01
  Speaker 4: be the best approach here. The money is also backing Baltimore,
• 46:05
  Speaker 4: and again the market, dude, like every one of these
• 46:08
  Speaker 4: teams that is returning home from a road trip, they're
• 46:11
  Speaker 4: all getting faded in the market, which, of course I
• 46:14
  Speaker 4: can tell you obviously, I've told you why. I mean,
• 46:16
  Speaker 4: the situation is negative for those teams. But I weigh
• 46:20
  Speaker 4: the matchups. You know, you have to take into account
• 46:23
  Speaker 4: the matchups. That's the thing. Sixty two percent of tickets
• 46:26
  Speaker 4: around Houston, fifty eight percent of the cash on Baltimore.
• 46:29
  Speaker 4: I think Lambert has a slight advantage over Kreamer here.
• 46:33
  Speaker 4: So I don't know, man, I mean, the situation might
• 46:36
  Speaker 4: mean more than that slight matchup disparity though, So I
• 46:39
  Speaker 4: don't It's a tough read for me on the side.
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: And that one, I think if you do play Baltimore
• 46:44
  Speaker 4: and maybe you should go first five with it because
• 46:46
  Speaker 4: the bullpens, either one of those bullpens could get beat
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: up in that game. So I don't know, man, Maybe
• 46:53
  Speaker 4: that's what I would do there. San Diego and Kansas City.
• 46:57
  Speaker 4: Kansas City is returning home from a road trip to
• 47:00
  Speaker 4: the Mets and then Baltimore, and they lost every game
• 47:02
  Speaker 4: on the road trip except for the first game where
• 47:05
  Speaker 4: they somehow exploded for sixteen runs. The game after they
• 47:09
  Speaker 4: put up fifteen against Christopher Sanchez and Philadelphia. They're ridiculous.
• 47:14
  Speaker 4: They put up nine on Sanchez there. Still, I think
• 47:18
  Speaker 4: it's a negative spot for Kansas City returning on from
• 47:20
  Speaker 4: a road trip. Again, it's a dreaded spot. You don't
• 47:24
  Speaker 4: want to be in it. You can get distracted. Got
• 47:26
  Speaker 4: to get back to home life. It also looks like
• 47:28
  Speaker 4: San Diego has the better starting pitcher on the mound here.
• 47:31
  Speaker 4: San Diego is starting a road trip, usually it is
• 47:34
  Speaker 4: a positive. So I think they do have the situational
• 47:36
  Speaker 4: advantage here, although the break might hurt their momentum a
• 47:40
  Speaker 4: little bit. Here, the break might stall it out just
• 47:43
  Speaker 4: a little bit because they won the last two games
• 47:45
  Speaker 4: going into the break. San Diego has a massive bullpen
• 47:48
  Speaker 4: advantage here. Although they're only ranked tenth right now, their
• 47:51
  Speaker 4: bullpen is way better than Kansas City, who is dead
• 47:54
  Speaker 4: last atrocious bullpen, So yeah, there's a huge disparity there.
• 47:59
  Speaker 4: San Diego is dead last in offense, though Kansas City
• 48:02
  Speaker 4: is eighteenth, tied with Detroit, but I I mean, Kansas
• 48:06
  Speaker 4: City does hit better at home, so I will give
• 48:09
  Speaker 4: them that, and we have a high total in this one.
• 48:11
  Speaker 4: The new Kaufman Stadium has become more of a hitter
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: friendly ballpark. Michael King is pitching for San Diego. He's
• 48:18
  Speaker 4: pretty good three point four to one Ray, one point
• 48:21
  Speaker 4: one five Whip, three point eight three Roadie Ray, so
• 48:24
  Speaker 4: he's slightly worse on the road, but not too bad here.
• 48:27
  Speaker 4: Pitch well in his last couple starts going into the break,
• 48:30
  Speaker 4: but he generally pitches well, so not really a surprise.
• 48:33
  Speaker 4: He's got a low hit rate. His walk rate is
• 48:35
  Speaker 4: a bit too high though. That's been his main issue
• 48:38
  Speaker 4: is the walks. He's got to do something about that,
• 48:40
  Speaker 4: although I mean he's deep into his career so he
• 48:43
  Speaker 4: probably won't. His strike out rate is not really that
• 48:46
  Speaker 4: high though, so he doesn't really fool bat or It's
• 48:48
  Speaker 4: like you would think that a guy of his caliber
• 48:50
  Speaker 4: would fool them. He's been good against Kansas City though,
• 48:54
  Speaker 4: in thirty one at bats, one ninety four average, four
• 48:56
  Speaker 4: ninety one oh ps, allowed seven to three strikeout walk ratio,
• 48:59
  Speaker 4: So I think King probably will pitch well here. Seth
• 49:02
  Speaker 4: Lugo is pitching for Kansas City. He's been mediocre at best,
• 49:08
  Speaker 4: four point five to six e RA, one point four
• 49:10
  Speaker 4: to three whip. That's not very good. He's been better
• 49:13
  Speaker 4: at home though, even though they moved the walls in.
• 49:15
  Speaker 4: He's got a three point eighty three home he RA,
• 49:18
  Speaker 4: so he is better at home. Last couple of starts
• 49:21
  Speaker 4: haven't really been great. Man. He seems like he's not
• 49:24
  Speaker 4: a very good form right now. He was a bit
• 49:25
  Speaker 4: better last time out on the road at Baltimore, but
• 49:29
  Speaker 4: he didn't go that deep into that outing.
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: He was.
• 49:33
  Speaker 4: Not efficient with his pitches there. He's given up too
• 49:36
  Speaker 4: many hits this season. Man. His walk rate is okay,
• 49:39
  Speaker 4: his strikeout rate is a bit low, so he doesn't
• 49:41
  Speaker 4: really fool guys. The advanced analytics guys don't like him.
• 49:44
  Speaker 4: They don't like a profile like that, and maybe they're
• 49:46
  Speaker 4: right because he's not really pitching that well here against
• 49:49
  Speaker 4: San Diego though. His numbers are okay, and this is
• 49:52
  Speaker 4: not a particularly good offense here forty obviously forty seven
• 49:57
  Speaker 4: at bats although they still have guys like Tatis Machado,
• 50:00
  Speaker 4: you know, merrill boatguards like you'd think this team would
• 50:03
  Speaker 4: hit better than they do forty seven at bats two
• 50:06
  Speaker 4: fifty five average, allowed seven to ten, obs, twelve to five.
• 50:10
  Speaker 4: Excuse me, strike out walk ratio there again. I mean
• 50:14
  Speaker 4: this is a difficult game to figure out. Kansas City.
• 50:18
  Speaker 4: I mean I probably just lean San Diego here. I mean,
• 50:22
  Speaker 4: I think King is still the better pitcher here. Kansas
• 50:24
  Speaker 4: City returning over from a road trip, I mean, not
• 50:26
  Speaker 4: a good spot for them. Their bullpen as a train wreck.
• 50:29
  Speaker 4: The money seems to agree with me, San Diego. You're
• 50:31
  Speaker 4: looking at basic a pick on price here, though, I
• 50:34
  Speaker 4: think maybe it looks a little bit too easy to
• 50:36
  Speaker 4: play San Diego, And that is kind of my concern
• 50:38
  Speaker 4: with this seventy nine percent of tickets, ninety three percent
• 50:40
  Speaker 4: of the cash on San Diego money. Also backing the
• 50:44
  Speaker 4: over ten for whatever that's worth. But I don't really
• 50:47
  Speaker 4: have a good read on that. I think the I mean,
• 50:50
  Speaker 4: if you look at the pitching matchup, it looks like
• 50:52
  Speaker 4: it might be lower scoring earlier in the game. But yeah,
• 50:55
  Speaker 4: I think backing San Diego with King makes more sense,
• 51:00
  Speaker 4: you know. I just think it's a better spot for
• 51:01
  Speaker 4: San Diego there. Plus they have the better starting pitcher
• 51:04
  Speaker 4: on the mount. Plus the better Bullpen, so that one
• 51:07
  Speaker 4: is kind of closer to making the cut for me. Man,
• 51:11
  Speaker 4: I think I like the other two games that I
• 51:12
  Speaker 4: talked about better than that, but that game is I
• 51:15
  Speaker 4: think a consideration. But then again, I worry because it
• 51:18
  Speaker 4: looks way too easy to play San Diego, you know,
• 51:21
  Speaker 4: and they're not really that good on the road, so
• 51:23
  Speaker 4: I don't know. But obviously Kansas City, I mean, they
• 51:26
  Speaker 4: have such a bad record, the public is pretty much
• 51:29
  Speaker 4: always gonna be fade in Kansas City. All right, I'll
• 51:31
  Speaker 4: be right back. I'll talk about the remaining five games here,
• 51:34
  Speaker 4: and then there are four w NBA games, and I
• 51:36
  Speaker 4: do not have anything in the WNBA, so I just
• 51:39
  Speaker 4: have this one play here today. And maybe I'm being
• 51:41
  Speaker 4: too selective. Man, I'll be right back. Yep. Inside, I
• 51:56
  Speaker 4: want to kill myself. We're on own seven. The last
• 52:00
  Speaker 4: two days after tonight it was just complete bullshit. So
• 52:03
  Speaker 4: that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible Sunday
• 52:07
  Speaker 4: one and five. I don't even know what to tell
• 52:09
  Speaker 4: you about that. I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 52:12
  Speaker 4: I have never seen anything like this. Man, with the
• 52:16
  Speaker 4: slump continuing, two straight losses, not a good day at
• 52:19
  Speaker 4: all own four, I have not had a good season man,
• 52:25
  Speaker 4: with wookends slump that I'm on, and the slump continues,
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: I've reached into peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 52:34
  Speaker 4: browins hack Man, I don't know what is going on
• 52:36
  Speaker 4: with the Bruins Archiape. Is that what it is? I
• 52:39
  Speaker 4: don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think who
• 52:43
  Speaker 4: even knows? Man, I don't know what day it is anymore.
• 52:46
  Speaker 4: But I don't even know what day it is anymore. Man,
• 52:48
  Speaker 4: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 52:51
  Speaker 4: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: I die at least oh and two yesterday and yesterday
• 52:59
  Speaker 4: did not go well for me. Own five the worst
• 53:03
  Speaker 4: month that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 53:06
  Speaker 4: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 53:08
  Speaker 4: To the slump series, the slump discontinues, The slump continues.
• 53:13
  Speaker 4: Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what
• 53:17
  Speaker 4: I should do at this point, other than potentially end
• 53:20
  Speaker 4: it all all right. Next is Cincinnati and Colorado. Colorado
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: is returning home from a road trip. They went to
• 53:37
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers in San Francisco, so they were returning over
• 53:39
  Speaker 4: from the West Coast. I don't think it's a good
• 53:41
  Speaker 4: spot for them. Negative spot and bad teams tend to
• 53:45
  Speaker 4: not do well in that spot particularly, so like I
• 53:49
  Speaker 4: think it's a well, I mean, it just makes sense, right,
• 53:52
  Speaker 4: Like I mean, bad teams are are less likely to
• 53:55
  Speaker 4: overcome those negative spots. Cincinnati is not a particularly good
• 53:59
  Speaker 4: team either though. Cincinnati is starting a road trip though,
• 54:01
  Speaker 4: and they lost the last two games against the Cubs,
• 54:04
  Speaker 4: so their negative momentum could get disrupted by that All
• 54:08
  Speaker 4: Star break, which would be a good thing. Plus they're
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: starting a road trip, so the situation definitely favorite Cincinnati
• 54:14
  Speaker 4: in my opinion. And Colorado. I mean, their road trip
• 54:17
  Speaker 4: was a bunch of divisional games and a lot of
• 54:19
  Speaker 4: them were close, so you know, Colorado could be in
• 54:22
  Speaker 4: kind of a hangover spot for that reason too, So
• 54:25
  Speaker 4: situation to me looks quite negative for Colorado here. Their
• 54:29
  Speaker 4: bullpen also stinks. They're worse than Cincinnati. Colorado twenty eighth.
• 54:34
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati is not good at twenty seventh, but they're better
• 54:37
  Speaker 4: than the Colorado offensively. Colorado has been the better team
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: their fifth which you know should probably continue being at
• 54:46
  Speaker 4: home against a team that doesn't pitch particularly well, and
• 54:48
  Speaker 4: looking at the pitching matchup here, they might be able
• 54:51
  Speaker 4: to put up some runs here, even though their offense
• 54:54
  Speaker 4: might cool off a little bit because of the break.
• 54:56
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati's twenty second offensively, that's not good, but they might
• 55:00
  Speaker 4: be able to do some damage in this series. However,
• 55:04
  Speaker 4: I think Colorado has just started pitching edge in this game,
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: though the total is really high, but it is a
• 55:09
  Speaker 4: course field game. You know, Brady's singer though, I mean
• 55:12
  Speaker 4: he's pitching for the Reds. I mean, I don't think
• 55:14
  Speaker 4: that's gonna go well. He's got a four point seven
• 55:17
  Speaker 4: to two ERA, one point four to seven whip. He's
• 55:19
  Speaker 4: been atrocious on the road, six point seven to five
• 55:22
  Speaker 4: Roady Ray. That is not what you want when you're
• 55:25
  Speaker 4: going to pitching course field here. He was pretty good
• 55:28
  Speaker 4: last time out against Philadelphia, but that might be a
• 55:30
  Speaker 4: little bit of an outlier. I mean, he wasn't really
• 55:32
  Speaker 4: pitching that well for the most part prior to that.
• 55:36
  Speaker 4: He's got a high hit rate. Walk rate is a
• 55:39
  Speaker 4: bit too high as well. He's giving up a lot
• 55:40
  Speaker 4: of home runs. He's not two flyball heavy, although he's
• 55:44
  Speaker 4: a little bit flyball heavy, but his home run rate. Obviously,
• 55:47
  Speaker 4: that's not a good sign for pitching a course field.
• 55:50
  Speaker 4: He might give up some home runs here, man, and
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: his strikeout rate is pretty low as well, so overall
• 55:56
  Speaker 4: not great against the Rockies. He's actually been all right though,
• 56:00
  Speaker 4: in forty nine at bats to twenty four average, six
• 56:03
  Speaker 4: seventy seven ops, sixteen to two strikeout walker ratio. I
• 56:08
  Speaker 4: still would not trust him in a setup like this.
• 56:10
  Speaker 4: I think Colorado could probably get to him for something.
• 56:14
  Speaker 4: And Colorado is going with Gabriel Hughes on the mound.
• 56:17
  Speaker 4: Who is We don't know what he is at this point,
• 56:20
  Speaker 4: but he's looked good so far. Man. He's a young
• 56:22
  Speaker 4: pitcher out of Alaska. He's got a three ERA and
• 56:26
  Speaker 4: a one WHIP so far. He's made two starts or two.
• 56:30
  Speaker 4: He's had two appearances, I should say. He went three
• 56:33
  Speaker 4: shutout innings against San Francisco and then he had a
• 56:35
  Speaker 4: really difficult task making a start in LA and they
• 56:39
  Speaker 4: let him go. He went six innings, ninety four pitches,
• 56:42
  Speaker 4: and he actually pitched pretty well. They lost the game,
• 56:45
  Speaker 4: but it was close. Man. He gave up three runs
• 56:47
  Speaker 4: on four hits, seven strikeouts, two walks. Hughes might actually
• 56:52
  Speaker 4: have something. Man, he might actually be good. I mean
• 56:54
  Speaker 4: that that is a pretty good sign. Although you know,
• 56:56
  Speaker 4: guys like this, they're gonna ride their unfamiliarity early on.
• 57:00
  Speaker 4: So these pitchers, they'll have a little bit of an
• 57:02
  Speaker 4: advantage when they're unfamiliar to the opposing offenses. Which might
• 57:06
  Speaker 4: help him here too, because Cincinnati obviously has never faced
• 57:09
  Speaker 4: him before, and the Cincinnati has obviously a step down
• 57:12
  Speaker 4: from the Dodgers. So Hughes might actually pitch well here.
• 57:16
  Speaker 4: So I think Colorado does have a starting pitching advantage here.
• 57:20
  Speaker 4: You know, there are definitely some arguments for playing Colorado
• 57:23
  Speaker 4: in the first five here. I don't want to do it.
• 57:26
  Speaker 4: I mean, they were turning over a road trip, so
• 57:27
  Speaker 4: I don't think that's good. And it looks like the
• 57:29
  Speaker 4: money is actually back in Colorado. I mean, they're a
• 57:32
  Speaker 4: favorite here at minus one fifteen or so. When are
• 57:35
  Speaker 4: you gonna see Colorado as a favorite? Like never? The
• 57:39
  Speaker 4: public is not going to want anything to do with that.
• 57:42
  Speaker 4: The public sixty nine percent of ticket, sixty seven percent
• 57:44
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Cincinnati, So Cincinnati looks like a
• 57:47
  Speaker 4: public underdog here. The public thinking, oh my god, I
• 57:50
  Speaker 4: get to play a team that's an underdog against Colorado.
• 57:55
  Speaker 4: I think that's probably what they're thinking is so yeah,
• 57:58
  Speaker 4: I mean I would not want to play an out
• 58:00
  Speaker 4: of here. I'll tell you that, uh Colorado. Like I said,
• 58:03
  Speaker 4: I mean, you could play them first five here. Maybe
• 58:06
  Speaker 4: you could go over Colorado's team total and go with
• 58:09
  Speaker 4: Colorado to tee off on Brady Singer, although he has
• 58:12
  Speaker 4: been good against them in the past, though, but this
• 58:14
  Speaker 4: looks like a bad setup for him on the road,
• 58:16
  Speaker 4: plus being very home run conducive, you know. I mean,
• 58:20
  Speaker 4: the totals at twelve, so the oddsmakers think there were
• 58:23
  Speaker 4: gonna be runs here, sixty nine percent of tickets on
• 58:26
  Speaker 4: the under, eighty five percent of the cash on the over.
• 58:29
  Speaker 4: Do what you want with this, but I think if
• 58:30
  Speaker 4: you forced me to give out a play on this game,
• 58:32
  Speaker 4: I think I would probably go Colorado first five. Though
• 58:35
  Speaker 4: I think Hughes should be able to outpitch Singer, and
• 58:38
  Speaker 4: then I think the second best approach in the game
• 58:40
  Speaker 4: would be to play Colorado team total over. But you're
• 58:43
  Speaker 4: gonna be asking them to score a lot of runs
• 58:45
  Speaker 4: if you do that. But against Singer plus Red's bullpen,
• 58:50
  Speaker 4: it seems like they should be able to do it,
• 58:52
  Speaker 4: but again, coming out of the break they might start slow,
• 58:55
  Speaker 4: so I would worry about that a little bit. Gerald,
• 58:57
  Speaker 4: what's up? Thanks for hanging out, Yes, sir, Zach, what's up?
• 59:01
  Speaker 4: Thank you, sir, Thanks for hanging out. Yep. I got
• 59:04
  Speaker 4: the monetization I could start doing. You guys can give
• 59:08
  Speaker 4: me some ideas, because I could. I can turn memberships on,
• 59:11
  Speaker 4: but I don't really have a great idea as far
• 59:13
  Speaker 4: as what I should put behind the membership paywall there.
• 59:19
  Speaker 4: And you know, I don't know if I should, like,
• 59:22
  Speaker 4: you know, like double posts certain things, but make make
• 59:25
  Speaker 4: some of them membership only, make the other make a
• 59:28
  Speaker 4: different version of it, like private for like patreons. Just
• 59:31
  Speaker 4: I don't know. You guys can tell me what you think.
• 59:33
  Speaker 4: Although my pag roon has been more it's all like
• 59:36
  Speaker 4: Yuke stuff right now and has nothing to really do
• 59:38
  Speaker 4: with this channel, all right, Detroit and Anaheim. I looked
• 59:41
  Speaker 4: at this game and my first thought was first five
• 59:44
  Speaker 4: under because I think both these starting pitchers are under
• 59:46
  Speaker 4: the radar. Although Redebt Meers, this guy is on my
• 59:50
  Speaker 4: shit list for fucking me over on multiple first five
• 59:54
  Speaker 4: unders recently, it might be a better spot to do
• 59:58
  Speaker 4: it here though, because you got these teams have had
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 4: time off, which might hurt their offense. Anaems are turning
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 4: over from a road trip as well, so that's not
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 4: a great spot to be. And they went to Texas
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 4: and Minnesota and now they're returning home not great so
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 4: they could be in a bit of a distracted spot there.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 4: I think that tends to affect the hitting a bit,
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 4: so that might not be good for Anaheim. Here they're
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 4: having to go back to the Pacific Coast. Both teams
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 4: are having to travel out to the Pacific Coast, so
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 4: that's not good either. They're both coming in from the
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 4: Central time zone. Detroit is starting a road trip, which
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 4: is usually a positive spot starting a road trip, So
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 4: I think Detroit is probably in the better situational spot here.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 4: As far as looking at the side here, maybe Detroit might,
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 4: you know, could be worth a look here. I don't
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 4: really necessarily want to fade debt Marzlo. When I show
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 4: you the matchup numbers, you know it might it might
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 4: be something to consider. I don't know, I feel like
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 4: I'm all over the place here, But because of the
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 4: break that can affect the hitting a little bit. Because
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 4: both teams are having to travel to the Pacific time
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 4: zone here and play a late night game. I think
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 4: that all might affect the hitting a bit negatively here.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 4: Bullpen wise, Detroit's got the better bullpen. They're seventeenth. They
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 4: got a sub four ERA, which is not bad. Anaheim
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 4: is twenty fourth. They're one of the worst bullpens, So yeah,
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 4: Detroit has a bullpen advantage. Detroit is tied in eighteenth
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 4: in offense with tied at eighteenth in offense with the Royals.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 4: Anaheim is twenty first in offense, So do what you
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 4: want with that. I mean, neither offense has really been
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 4: that great, which again makes this look look like it
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 4: could be a first five under. Troy Melton is pitching
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 4: for the Tigers. This guy, you know, he's a converter reliever.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 4: I don't think much was really thought of him, but
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 4: he's been pitching pretty well here. One point eight two ERA,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 4: point eight to one whip. I mean, I don't think
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 4: those numbers are sustainable, but he is pitching well. He's
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 4: been good on the road to one point three to
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 4: three road ray and Anaheim does not hit particularly well
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 4: at home, so that's maybe a decent sign for on
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 4: Melton in this one. Melton, he's also going through these
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 4: very capable offenses year. I mean, look at these offenses.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 4: He's faced, like no bad offenses this entire season so far.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 4: Last two outings he had to go to the Bronx
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 4: and face the Yankees, and then he was at home
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 4: against the A's. Although the A's have been hitting worse recently,
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 4: he did not allow any earned runs over those two starts.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 4: Melton looks good, man. I mean, he's allowed more than
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 4: two urn runs only one time or yeah, so he's
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 4: got a low hit rate here, as walk rate's pretty
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 4: low as well. His strikeout rate is not great, so
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 4: he doesn't really strike guys out. But he looks good
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 4: and Anaheim has not seen much of him. They only
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 4: have six at bats against him. They do have one
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 4: home run and that's their only hit off him as
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 4: a home run from Adele, not the Singer one six,
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 4: not Brady Singer either, one sixty seven batting average allowed,
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 4: eight thirty three ops just because of that one home run,
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 4: no strikeouts, no walks. But Melton he might have the
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 4: upper hand here because Anaheim has really not seen that
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 4: much of them, so they're not going to really be
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 4: that familiar with him. And he's pitching well right now,
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 4: so I think he should continue to do so. Read
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 4: Detmer's pitching for Anaheim. His era is four point three
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 4: to nine, but I think that's misleading because his whip
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 4: is one point one four, which is pretty good. He's
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 4: not quite as good at home though, four point seven
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 4: to seven home he ra and Dude. Three of his
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 4: last four starts have been bad. One of them was
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 4: at the A's stadium, so I think he give him
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 4: a pass for that, But at home against Boston and
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 4: then in Texas, failing to do well in both of
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 4: those starts. That's not a good sign that Debtmers is
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 4: not a good form right now. So that worries me
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 4: a bit in looking at a potential first five under here,
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 4: and I tried that, I think in his last two
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 4: starts and neither of them hit. So Debtmers has been
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 4: screwing me recently. But you look at his overall numbers,
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 4: they look good. He's got a low hit rate, he's
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 4: gotten a decent amount of innings here, he's got a
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 4: pretty low walk rate, strikeout rate is high. So all
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 4: these numbers look good, man, except you know the fly
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 4: balls aren't really that great, but he's not really allowing
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 4: that many home runs against Detroit, though he gets mashed.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 4: They only have thirteen at bats against them, six hitters
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 4: that faced him, but they have a five thirty eight
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 4: average against him in sixteen forty eight ops with home
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 4: runs from Dingler and Veerling, three strikeouts, one walk. Do
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 4: what you want with that. But Detroit looks like they
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 4: are able to hit debt mers here. So I like
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 4: the first five under, or at least I did on
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 4: the surface, and I still wouldn't fully disagree with that,
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 4: but perhaps just playing Detroit might be the better way
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 4: to go here. It almost looks too easy, though. I mean,
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 4: the public is going to be on Detroit because Detroit
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 4: is starting to play better again. They've got some of
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 4: their starters back, Melton at least amongst like the Detroit
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 4: fan base. Melton seems like he's a little bit over
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 4: hype now, although I do agree he's fairly good. Eighty
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 4: four percent of tickets, eighty seven percent of the cash
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 4: on Detroit. They look like a public side, dude, even
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 4: though they have the money coming in on them too.
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 4: That amount of publicity on them worries me a little bit.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 4: Plus it's a pickram price. It looks too easy to
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 4: play Detroit. However, again, I think Melton has the upper
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 4: hand over debt merse. I think Detroit has the better bullpen.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 4: I mean, I know they do, and Detroit has the
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 4: better situational spot. But then again, both teams having to
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 4: travel out to the west mess with their biological clocks.
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 4: That's not great. Money is back in the over by
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 4: the way, fifty tickets, ninety two percent of the cash
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 4: on over eight and a half. I you know, I mean,
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 4: if you forced me to give you a lean on
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 4: the total, I would still say first five under there,
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 4: but I really don't want to do it. Saint Louis
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 4: at Arizona, Arizona's returning over from a road trip, and
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 4: they swept the Dodgers to finish the road trip, so
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 4: I think it's a negative spot for them. Man, the
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 4: returning back could be a distracted spot plus a letdown
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 4: spot for that ridiculous road sweep of the Dodgers pulling
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 4: off three straight upsets. That's ridiculous. So I think Arizona
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 4: is in a bad spot. Plus they do have a
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 4: pretty fatable pitcher here, so if you wanted to look
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 4: to fade Arizona, you might be able to do that here.
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis is starting a road trouble though, They're having
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 4: to go further west here for this, so that might
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 4: negatively impact them a little bit playing later based on
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 4: their biological clocks here, they did go into the break
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 4: on a losing streak though, and again going into the
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 4: break on a winning streak like Arizona did, their winning
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 4: streak could get disrupted, so I think that might be
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 4: a negative for Arizona for that reason as well. Looking
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 4: at what we got going on here, Arizona's fifth in bullpen,
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 4: I think they're not really that good though Saint Louis
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 4: is not good though their bullpen is twenty first, So
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 4: i'll give Arizona the bullpen edge here, although I don't
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 4: think it's as significant as maybe it seems like it is. Offensively,
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis has dropped to twenty at Arizona twenty fifth.
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 4: Both offenses have been struggling here. It says undecided, but
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 4: I believe Saint Louis has announced that they're going with
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 4: McGreevy here. That is what they're doing. So Michael McGreevy
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 4: is going to be the starter for Saint Louis here
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 4: unless they decide to pull a fast one and change
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 4: something here. McGreevy, I mean, he's been pretty good on
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 4: the season three point oh one ERA one point one whip,
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 4: although again the advanced analytics guys don't like him because
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 4: he pitches to contact. He's also not as good on
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 4: the road four point two Roady Ray, so he might
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 4: not pitch as well here. Saint Louis is more pitcher friendly,
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 4: pitching it home for him here. He was pretty decent
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 4: in his last two starts though, at Atlanta and at
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 4: home against Milwaukee, so do what you want with that.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 4: He's actually his last three starts at home against Miami
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 4: he was good there too, and he's generally been good.
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's got a low hit rate, low walk rate,
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 4: strike out rate is really low though, which again that's
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 4: why the advanced analytics guys think he's gonna regress because
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 4: he pitches to contact but has not resulted in a
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 4: bunch of hits. So I don't know, man, I mean,
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 4: I think he's all right, and Arizona's never faced him before,
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 4: so he might have a little bit of an extra
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 4: advantage here in the unfamiliarity aspect of this, where Arizona's
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 4: gonna have to try to figure him out on the fly,
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 4: and Arizona's going with Merril Kelly, who is not having
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 4: a good season at all. Five point three eighty RA,
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 4: one point five to one whip really really bad. He's
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 4: been really bad at home seven point four to four
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 4: homey RA. None of that is good at all. However,
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 4: he did pitch pretty well in his last two starts,
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 4: so maybe he's finally starting to turn it around. Last
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 4: one was at San Diego, so you can't really draw
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 4: much from that because that's an easy assignment, pitcher friendly
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 4: ballpark week offense. But he pitched pretty well here against
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee in his last home start, and he was decent
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 4: in his starting against Saint Louis in Saint Louis, not
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 4: that long ago. Overall, though, his hit rate is too high,
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 4: as walker rate is not great. He's giving up a
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 4: lot of home runs, his strikeout rate is really low.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 4: There's not really a ton to like here with the
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 4: way Kelly's been pitching this year. Man, He's he's basically
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 4: fallen off a cliff this year, and he might have
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 4: to start thinking about packing it in. Although generally he's
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 4: been good against Saint Louis. They have eight fifty eight
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 4: at bats against him, two forty one average, six forty
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 4: four oh ps, ten to eight strike out walk ratio.
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 4: That's not good, But the rest of these numbers are good.
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 4: I mean, do we really dare think about maybe like
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 4: a first five under here total for the full games
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 4: at nine the money is backing the over fifty three
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets on the under eighty seven percent of
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 4: the cash on the over. I mean, I don't really
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 4: think so, man. I mean I think, I mean I
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 4: might lean that way. I might lean a little bit
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 4: towards the first five under based on that starting pitching
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 4: matchup that we you know, we just saw the matchup
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 4: numbers there. But I can't really trust Kelly here, man.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 4: I think maybe you could have a lean towards Saint Louis.
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 4: That might be the better way to look at this
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 4: a little. You're gonna be laying about a pick em
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 4: price there. I would take their bullpen out, probably because
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 4: their bullpen kind of sucks. So you might have the
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 4: edge with Grievy though still, and you have a situational advantage,
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 4: I think for sure. I think it's a bad situation
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 4: for Arizona, so I think there's there are definitely arguments
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 4: for Saint Louis in the first five, especially fifty eight
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets on Saint Louis, though fifty two of
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 4: the cash on Arizona, so the money is backing Arizona.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 4: I don't understand that. Yeah, I think probably the best
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 4: approach in that game is Saint Louis Verst five. All Right,
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 4: Washington and the A's. I mean, on the surface, this
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 4: looks like it's gonna be an over type of series. Man.
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 4: I mean, you got a high flying ballpark here, you
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 4: got two offenses that are good. You got pitching that
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 4: is not very good generally between these two teams, although
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 4: the starting pitching matchup in this game is actually not
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 4: that bad. The A's are returning over from a road
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 4: trip and they lost every game on the road trip,
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 4: and they've lost I don't even know how many games
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 4: they've lost in a row. Now, man, what is this?
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 4: They've lost nine straight games and they've lost thirteen of
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 4: the last fourteen games. The A's have completely fallen off
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 4: a cliff too. They were close to the division lead
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 4: in the Al West and now, yeah, they can probably
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 4: forget about that. They're playing horribly, but the good news
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 4: is they're losing. Momentum might stop because they just had
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 4: a break. So one of the best times to have
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 4: a break is when you're on a big losing streak
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 4: like this. The problem is they're turning home from a
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 4: road trip and they're going back out west, so I
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 4: think it's still a negative. They're gonna have to readjust
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 4: to the Pacific time zone, having to play a game.
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 4: It's gonna be later based on what their biological clocks
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 4: are adjusted to. That's not good. And I think people
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 4: might think, oh, the A's are back home, maybe they're
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 4: gonna win a game. Now. It doesn't really work like that, man,
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 4: though the public may not think that because Washington does
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 4: have the better record here, so they might not want
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 4: anything to do with the A's. The A's actually are
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 4: pretty bad at home, by the way. They really don't
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 4: have much of a home advantage in this ballpark that
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 4: is a temporary ballpark for them. It's just yeah, it's bad, dude.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 4: Both these bullpens are bad. As I alluded to, the
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 4: A's are twenty fifth Washington is twenty six. Both the
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 4: ras are above five. That is not good. Uh, you
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 4: want to avoid both bullpens here man or fade them.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 4: The A's have really fallen off offensively. It's sixteenth though
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 4: they might come back around now that they're back at home.
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 4: You know, being back at home should help their offense
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 4: a bit. Washington, they've been a good offense all season.
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 4: They're number three, and they're good on the road too,
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 4: So Washington good offense. Cade Cavally is pitching for Washington,
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 4: he's been he's been pretty decent. Three point eight three RA,
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 4: one point three to five whip is not that good though.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 4: He's a little bit better on the road three point
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 4: seventy four. But you're asking him to pitch in this
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 4: A's stadium, man, it might not go that well. Though.
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 4: He pitched well last time out at home against the Yankees,
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 4: although they still lost that game. That was his return
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 4: from suspension. He's got I mean, his numbers are a
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 4: little bit all over the place. His hit rates a
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 4: little bit too highs walk rate is okay. His strikeout
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 4: rate is high. So that's one good thing is that
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 4: he strikes out a lot of guys, so he obviously
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 4: has some talent here. The other good thing for him
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 4: in this stadium is that he's not a fly ball
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 4: heavy pitcher. He hasn't allowed many home runs here, his
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 4: ground ball rate is pretty high, so he might actually
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 4: pitch well in a stadium like this. Still, and the
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 4: Aas have not really seen much of him. They only
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 4: have four hitters who have faced him. Longo Leers has
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 4: the only hit against it, which is a single, two strikeouts,
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 4: one walk, one twenty five average three forty seven ops.
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 4: So yeah, Cavally might actually pitch well here. Man, he
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 4: has the right style of pitching to pitch in this stadium.
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 4: Looks like he's in okay for him, and he's got
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 4: some unfamiliarity here which might help him. Plus, the AA's
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 4: hitters that have seen him haven't really done much against him.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 4: The A's are going with Gage Jump, who I think
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 4: is a talented young pitcher, but having to pitch in
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 4: this stadium I think is really hurting his numbers, which
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 4: are still not even bad. Three point five one ray,
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 4: one point two to nine whip that's not that bad.
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 4: But pitching at home has destroyed him. Dude, he's got
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 4: a six point two Homieerra, and he's been unhittable basically
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 4: on the road, but pitching in this stadium at home
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 4: has been difficult for him. Pitch well last time out,
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 4: but it was on the road against the White Sox
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 4: and he didn't get any run support behind him in
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 4: that one. He's got a decent strikeout rate, so he
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 4: definitely could fool guys at the major league level. His
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 4: hit rates at one per inning, which isn't really that good,
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 4: walk rates a little bit too high. His home run
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 4: rate is actually not too bad. He is kind of
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 4: a fly ball heavy pitcher though, so you know, still,
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 4: I mean, it looks like he is struggling pitching in
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 4: this stadium though, so that's not great. He does have
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 4: an unfamiliarity advantage here though Washington has not seen him before,
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 4: and generally I think he's a good pitcher. So this game,
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 4: I mean, do we really want to try to play
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 4: first five under in this game? But obviously I'm not
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 4: going to have that anywhere near my card. But I
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 4: think if you forced him to give a lead on
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 4: this game, you know, I mean, honestly, that might be it.
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 4: The first five under might make some sense here. The
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 4: total in the full games at ten. Obviously, the oddsmakers
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 4: are telling you they think there are gonna be runs here.
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 4: But if you cut the bullpens out just focused on
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 4: the starting pitching, you know, the pitching might actually be
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 4: all right here, and plus the offenses might be slow
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 4: to get going again after the break. Sixty four percent
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 4: of tickets, ninety five percent of the cash on the
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 4: over though money is also backing Washington and around a
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 4: pick them money line price here seventy six percent of tickets,
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 4: ninety percent of the cash on Washington. I probably agree
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 4: with that. I think Washington first five makes sense here.
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 4: I would not back their bullpen, but because the A's
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 4: are returning home from a road trip, although Washington is
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 4: also having to travel cross country, so let's not forget
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 4: about that. Washington's coming in from the East Coast, so
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 4: this might negatively impact their biological clock, you know what
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 4: I mean. And they just got swept at home by
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 4: the Yankees, so the brake might actually help them break
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 4: that losing momentum. But still travel cross country for an
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 4: East Coast team going out west that first game, I
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 4: don't really love that, but I still would lean to
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 4: Washington on the side here over the A's here. They
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 4: got seventy six percent to take us ninety percent of
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 4: the cash on them, And I think Cavally is a
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 4: little bit better suited to pitch in this stadium. The
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 4: jump is. So that's probably what I would look at
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 4: in that game, besides maybe the first five under, like
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 4: I said, although that seems kind of crazy, and then
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 4: San Francisco Seattle is the last game. I mean, this
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 4: kind of looks like it's gonna be an under. The
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 4: total is really low in this game, it's around seven,
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 4: so the owsmakers are kind of telling you they think
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 4: it's gonna be a low scoring game. It is in Seattle,
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 4: so we know Seattle pitcher Friendly Ballpark. Here. Seattle's returning
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 4: on from a road trip where they went to the
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 4: East Coast and it was a very bad road trip.
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 4: They only won the last game against Tampa Bay, which
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 4: might end that losing momentum for them. So I think
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 4: that's okay. Like I don't think like I don't. I
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 4: don't think they're a positive momentum from one win is
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 4: gonna get knocked out by having a bunch of rest here.
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 4: I think they ended their losing momentum here but the
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 4: problem is they're returning home from a road trip here
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 4: and having to go back to the West Coast for
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 4: a late, late game. That's not good. I think that
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 4: could negatively affect their biological clock. They might not totally
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 4: pay attention to San Francisco here, so I think it's
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 4: a negative for Seattle. However, they have a really good
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 4: starting pitcher on them out here, so I don't really
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 4: want to fade Seattle. San Francisco is starting a road
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 4: trip and they're coming in from San Francisco, so San
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 4: Francisco has a better travel spot here. They're only going
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 4: from northern California to Seattle here, staying in the same
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 4: time zone starting a road trip, which is usually a
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 4: positive spot with momentum because they just beat Colorado. Although,
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 4: like I said, San Francisco's offense is falling off again
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 4: now that they're not playing in these very hit or
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 4: friendly ballparks. Their bullbend has struggled this season, which is
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 4: kind of insane. They're at twenty third of the I
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 4: don't really think they're that bad. Maybe they'll start coming
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 4: around again. Seattle is fifteenth. I think they're better than that.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 4: I think Seattle's Wolpen is pretty good offensively, Like I said,
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 4: San Francisco's ranked twelveth, but I don't really think they're
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 4: that good, so I think they're gonna drop off a bit.
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 4: Seattle is twenty six, tied with Toronto, but I don't
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 4: think they're really that bad offensively, so I think they're
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 4: gonna get a little bit better at some point. San
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 4: Francisco is going with landon route here. I think he's
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 4: a decent pitcher. His numbers is a pretty mediocre here
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 4: four point two to seventy array, one point three to
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 4: one whip. He's a little bit worse on the road
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 4: four point sixty seven roady array. But this is a
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 4: more pitcher from the environment for him. He pitched really
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 4: well last time out against Toronto in his last star,
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 4: but he was a little bit shaky in the prior
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 4: start al though. Actually, if you go four his last
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 4: four starts, three of them were actually good though, so
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 4: he is kind of in better form right now. They're
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 4: letting him go. I mean they're letting him throw a
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 4: lot of pitches here, so that's at least a decent
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 4: sign that the management trusts him. He's got a low
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 4: hit rate He's been hard to hit. His walk rate
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 4: is his main issue. He walks way too many eyes.
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 4: That is a big problem. But he does have a
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 4: good strikeout rate. He's got like nasty breaking stuff that
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 4: guys definitely get fooled by. And he's not really a
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 4: fly ball pitcher at all, but it doesn't really matter
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 4: in this stadium. So yeah, I think Roupe is a
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 4: little bit better than his numbers. Look numbers against Seattle.
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 4: They only have four hitters who have ever faced him.
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 4: The only hit is a single from Nailor. They have
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 4: a two to fifty average, seven to fifty ops, zero strikeouts,
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 4: two walks, only four at bats. Not much to take
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 4: away from that. So Roupe is pretty unfamiliar to Seattle,
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 4: so he might pitch well here and Seattle's going with
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 4: Bryce Miller, and Miller has been really, really good this
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 4: season so far. I think he had some injuries, but
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 4: when he's pitched, he's been good. A two point one
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 4: to eighty ra point eighty three whip. He's been basically
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 4: untouchable at home point four homy ra ridiculous. He was
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 4: only okay in his last start against Miami on the road,
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 4: but the fielding didn't really help him. His walk rate
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 4: was pretty high that one, though, I don't know what
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 4: that was, so that looks like more of an outlier
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 4: to me. That was the only time all season he
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 4: allowed more than three or runs in a start, and
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 4: he's only done. He's only allowed three or more twice.
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 4: He's got a low hit rate, a low walk rate,
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 4: a high strike cut rate. All these numbers look good.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 4: I think Miller, basically his numbers are ace like against
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 4: San Francisco, he has good numbers as well. They only
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 4: have six hitters of face him twenty seven at bats
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 4: to twenty two average six fifty six oh ps, four
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 4: to four strike got walk ratio. That's not good obviously,
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 4: but the rest of those numbers are good. I think
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 4: Miller should pitch well here. I think under is the
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 4: way to look at this game. I think it makes sense.
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 4: I mean, you got one team that should have us
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 4: some hitting disadvantages here, which is Seattle in their return
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 4: home home spot here, which I don't think is very good.
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 4: Money looks like it's back in the over, which is
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 4: at seven. You might be able to find a seven
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 4: and a half somewhere. Sixty percent of take is eighty
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 4: six percent of the cash on the over I would
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 4: not do that, though, I would go under here maybe
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 4: full game, because you're still on that key number seven
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 4: you got rested bullpens. I think San Francisco's bullpen is
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 4: probably at least better than where they're ranked. Seattle's is good,
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 4: and I think both starting pitchers might actually do our
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 4: right here, although I think Seattle has the advantage in
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 4: the matchup. Though I think Miller is better than Route,
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 4: but I think Seattle's better in the bullpen. Problem is
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 4: Seattle has a situational disadvantage. Like I said, so which
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 4: one of those wins out? You know, Seattle's a very
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 4: public side. Ninety one percent of tickets eighty eight percent
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 4: of the cash on them. I would not be looking
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 4: to play Seattle here. They're around minus one fifty something
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 4: on the money line here. Maybe a bit of a
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 4: price to lay there on them where it might be
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 4: a low scoring, close game. I still think under is
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 4: the best approach there. All right, that is baseball. Now
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 4: we will go to WNBA. There are four games. They're
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 4: all on ie On. They're all night games, so we
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 4: don't have any afternoon WNBA games this time. We're on
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 4: action in the app after noon, though, we have a
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 4: baseball play in the afternoon. That's the only thing we're
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 4: doing today. I'm not too enticed by any of these
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 4: WNBA games. Today. Seattle is at Indiana. Seattle's bad, Indiana
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 4: is not that bad. I think Indiana is better than
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 4: the record looks. Probably Indiana's coming off of a lost
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 4: to Golden State. Golden State's a good team though, and
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 4: Indiana lost in a return home spot. So a lot
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 4: of times when a team returns home and they have
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 4: a bad game and that one get distracted, whatever, a
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 4: lot of times they do better in their next game
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 4: and they bounce back. So they might be able to
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 4: do that. However, Indiana's got to play a back to
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 4: back and they play tomorrow against New York, so they
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 4: might look ahead to that. That's a big game on CBS.
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 4: So my worry would be Atlanta might look ahead to
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 4: that game. They might not pay as much attention to
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 4: Seattle here, because if you're going to pay attention to
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 4: one of these two games, it's going to be the Liberty.
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 4: It's not going to be Seattle. You know, Seattle is
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 4: one of these worst teams, by the way, I have
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 4: no idea why one of the games yesterday got postponed.
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 4: I don't know what that hell that was New York
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 4: against Dallas. I have no idea what that was. Seattle,
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 4: they're not playing well. They're on they're finishing a road
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 4: trip here, which sometimes that travel will catch up to you,
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 4: but they're only going for Chicago to Indiana here. However,
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 4: they played fairly well against Chicago. They weren't like a
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 4: huge underdog in that game, though Seattle still didn't cover
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 4: for us on the show there, so I'm not that
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 4: happy about that. They'll probably show up though, I mean,
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 4: they're gonna try to salvage one more game on the
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 4: road trip here. They're one and three on the road trip.
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 4: You're not going to overlook Indiana. So I think I
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 4: would lean to Seattle here, but it's a very very
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 4: weak lean for me on that one. The money is
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 4: back in Indiana. Do whatever you want with that info.
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 4: But they're laying about nine points here, sixty percent of tickets,
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 4: ninety four percent of the cash on Indiana. Obviously we
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 4: know Indiana is the better team. But yeah, I mean,
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 4: like I said, I think the biggest negative that's there
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 4: is that Indiana might be looking ahead to their next
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 4: game against the Liberties, so Seattle grabbing the points, it
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 4: might make some sense Atlanta at Toronto. Atlanta's definitely the
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 4: better team here, but having to go to Toronto, you know,
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 4: it's kind of a weird venue to have to go to.
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 4: Have they they've they've played there already though, So that's
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 4: the thing. So Atlanta has already gone into Toronto and
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 4: destroyed Toronto back on June fourteenth, so Atlanta is already
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 4: familiar with this travel spot. They've already gone there before
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 4: Toronto though they're staying at home here. They've had a
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 4: couple of days off to overcome that loss to Washington.
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 4: That was a win. I gave out Washington on the
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 4: show on Tuesday. And Toronto. I thought it was in
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 4: a bad spot. They'd just beaten the Liberty, which was
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 4: a big win, and they had this game up next
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 4: against Atlanta, so they could be in a bounce back.
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 4: They were in a bad spot there against Washington. They're
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 4: not going to overlook Atlanta, especially after Atlanta came into
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 4: their place and embarrassed them the last time they played them.
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 4: Atlanta's coming off of a win over La I don't
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 4: think that's really a big deal though, And they only
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 4: play Chicago next to Atlanta's really not in a particularly
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 4: negative spot here, and that's the thing. So it's really
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 4: more about It just comes down to the number, I think,
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 4: and I think probably I would still lean towards taking
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 4: the points here. The numbers at seven and a half.
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 4: This is weird though it's at seven and a half
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 4: at some books, nine and a half at other books.
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 4: You know, I think the seven and a half at FD,
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 4: I think that that's probably not updated or something. I
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 4: think this line is actually at nine and a half,
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 4: which means there's more value if you really want to
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 4: play Toronto here. Fifty six percent of tickets, fifty five
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on Toronto, which makes them look
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 4: like a public underdog. But I don't think so. I
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 4: don't think the public is coming in and playing Toronto here.
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 4: If you force me to give a lien on that one,
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 4: I would lean towards taking the points with Toronto. But
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 4: that's an even weaker lean than my other one. So
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 4: I don't like that game LA at Chicago. The one
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 4: thing that I noticed right away is that Chicago's favored
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 4: in this game, and you look at these records, How
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 4: is Chicago eight and sixteen favored against a ten and
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 4: thirteen LA team. Well, first of all, they have a
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 4: home advantage at least, But second of all, the Osbakers
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 4: are telling you there's not that much of a gap
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 4: between these two teams. Chicago's dealt with some injuries this
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 4: year and whatever, So that leaves me to look at
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 4: Chicago right away because the line looks really misleading. It
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 4: looks way too easy to play LA here, Like, who's
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 4: gonna want to play? Chicago is a slight favorite when
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 4: they have a terrible record. You know, Chicago, they're coming
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 4: off a win over Seattle, which is a you know,
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 4: I mean, it's decent, just because it ends they're losing momentum.
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 4: It was a return home spot too, by the way,
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 4: which is why I faded Chicago in that game, and
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 4: they didn't play that well. Seattle out rebounded them, Chicago
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 4: just hit a lot of shots early in the game.
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 4: I think we should have won that game with Seattle.
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 4: But whatever Chicago's now in that second game back home
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 4: might be a decent spot. Plus, part of the reason
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 4: why I faded them in that last game is because
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 4: they just lost to LA by fifteen in on the road,
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 4: So it's a little bit of a quick revenge angle here,
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 4: if you want to call it that, where Chicago might
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 4: make some adjustments to LA and LA might overlook them,
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean. So it might be an
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 4: okay spot for Chicago, though they do play Atlanta next,
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 4: which is gonna be a bigger game, and then New
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 4: York that's their road trip that's upcoming, so little bit
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 4: of a worry that there might be a look ahead
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 4: there for Chicago. LA is coming off of a fairly
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 4: tough game against Minnesota, although I don't think it was
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 4: really that close. Minnesota won the game by nine. I
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 4: think they were winning by double digits down the stretch.
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 4: LA coming off of that, and now they're going to
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 4: Chicago here, but they're in the middle of a road
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 4: trip and haven't won a game yet on the road trip,
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 4: so they might still show up here. But they do
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 4: have a big ABC game against Dallas next, and coming
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 4: off of Minnesota game is still not easy to do.
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 4: So yeah, overall, I'm gonna stick with my initial instinct
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 4: and lean Chicago here, and the money does agree with me.
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 4: Seventy percent of tickets on LA ninety percent of the
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 4: cash in Chicago. Course, remember these numbers might change throughout
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 4: the day. Chicago is a minus one point favorite minus
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 4: one and a half. That's the way I would lean.
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 4: I would either lay the one one and a half
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 4: of Chicago or find them money line on it and
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 4: play it that way. I would leave Chicago there. And
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 4: then we have Connecticut and Phoenix. Phoenix is coming off
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 4: a close loss to Minnesota. Man, they played a lot better,
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 4: which I told you they would after Phoenix had an
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 4: embarrassing result against Vegas the game before that, one of
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 4: the worst losses you'll ever see in the WNBA, losing
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 4: by almost fifty points. They had a much better game
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 4: against Minnesota, and they were pretty close with Minnesota. So
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 4: I think they're gonna be in a hangover spot coming
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 4: off of that. And they're actually returning home from a
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 4: road trip. They weren't on the road trip for a
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 4: full week, but they still met a waste. It's Saturday,
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 4: so Phoenix having to come back home maybe a little
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 4: bit of a distraction, especially because they're playing Connecticut here
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 4: and Connecticut's the worst team in the league. So coming
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 4: off that massive game against Minnesota might be a bad
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 4: spot here, not really a look ahead component to it
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 4: because they played Connecticut two games in a row. Here.
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 4: Now I might lean to Connecticut here, though, I mean
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 4: I will lean to Connecticut here. Connecticut just ended another
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 4: losing streak with a win against Portland, which I called
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 4: that on the show the other day too. I was
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 4: correct about that. Uh, they caught Portland off of like
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 4: an upset over Atlanta or something. Portland's not that good. Now.
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 4: Connecticut is starting a road trip, and that is kind
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 4: of my concern with looking at Connecticut here is I
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 4: don't like these East Coast teams going out west and
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 4: playing a late game for the first time because it
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 4: might you know, it just is negative for your biological clock,
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 4: So I don't love that. But they're coming off a
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 4: win that might just give them some confidence here. They're
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 4: starting a road trip, so they should be focused here.
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 4: Phoenix is in a bad spot, as I already explained,
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 4: coming off that huge game against Minnesota that was close.
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 4: I would still play Connecticut. If I was gonna play
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 4: this game, I would take the points with them at
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 4: four and a half or so, seventy one percent of tickets,
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 4: eighty three percent of the cash on them, even though
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 4: I always keep I've said throughout the season, the Phoenix
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 4: is not as bad as the record looks. But I'm
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 4: also not a fan of Phoenix after what they did
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 4: to Caitlin Clark. Leave Caitlin alone. What did you do
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 4: to my girl? That's gonna do Although my girl is
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 4: actually Sophy Cunningham, She's my favorite, man. She was also
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 4: tweeting out in opposition to Data Centers. I'm like, yeah,
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 4: that's my girl, Sophie. Yeah, all right, that's gonna do it, man.
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 4: She also she looks pretty hot on the Sports Illustrated
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 4: swimsuit cover. Man, I recommend checking that out. Go buy
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 4: a copy. Went on, that's gonna do it. Being really
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 4: selective here, man, My only play today is in the
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 4: afternoon game in baseball game one Red Sox Tampa. It
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 4: is Tampa money line first five. I think we have
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 4: a lot going for us there. Go back and see
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 4: my analysis on it, or follow me on Instagram and
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 4: I'll put on a video where I repeat that. So
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 4: only play today is in the afternoon And like I said,
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 4: my next best play almost made the cut for me
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 4: is the under in the Miami Marlins game, which was
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 4: who is it Marlins against who I don't even remember,
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 4: but I do like the under in that one. It
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 4: was Marlins and why don't I see it here Marlin's
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 4: in Milwaukee. Yes, I like the under and that one.
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 4: That's the next stup for me. Really really was close
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 4: to putting that on my card. And then if you
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 4: wanted to play beyond that, I think San Diego money
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 4: line might might be a way to look. But that
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 4: one worries me a little bit more because it looks
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 4: too public. But sometimes it's right. You know, that won't
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 4: totally dissuade me. But maybe it must have been way
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 4: too selective coming out of the break here. But that's
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 4: gonna do it. Learn its on on Twitter, learn its
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 4: one on Instagram, like subscribe to the channel here. We're
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 4: up to five hundred babies, so I'm gonna start the
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 4: monetization here. Let's get this going. I'll start memberships. I
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 4: don't know exactly what I'm gonna offer yet, but I
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 4: gotta figure something out. You guys can suggest things to
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 4: me if you want. We're on Audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 4: Check it out there covered in yuke on YouTube. I
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 4: did do a covery yesterday. My voice is still not
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 4: doing well again doing all these shows. It's getting a
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 4: bit ridiculous. We'll see, h hope my voice will come back.
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 4: Patreon dot com, sash learn a tote if you want
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 4: to support me that way and get some bonus yuke stuff. Uh,
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 4: Loser cast every Tuesday, New York Giants g Spot podcast.
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 4: We got to bring that back at some point, and
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 4: that's gonna do it for now. I think, yeah, I
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 4: think I got nothing else. Let's have a win today, man,
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 4: even though you know it is my Boston Red Sox.
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 4: So the ideal situation would be the Beat wins and
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox win out with the bullpen scenario and
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 4: then everything wins. That that would be a perfect way
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 4: for that game to play out. But I want to
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 4: bank on that, like probably whoever's ahead after the first
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 4: five probably winds up winning. But we'll see. That's gonna
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 4: do it. Peace, But don't you go quiet.
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 3: Don't you play it from the flow. Your name steal
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 3: means something to somebody for show. Put the glass down, baby,
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 3: look at me.
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 5: No, hold on, hold on.
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: Nothing nice, now, hold on, hold on, let me pull
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 1: that bites horn. But I don't get the crown hold on,
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 1: hold on, stay with me now,