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Mark interviews pollster John McLaughlin. · The Mark Simone Show

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Speaker 1: Yeah, let's get back to the Mark Simone show. I w.
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Speaker 2: Well. You know, you see these media polls, college polls,
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Speaker 2: they're all terrible, just these junk polls. You see polling
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Speaker 2: companies you never heard of. The biggest and best pollster
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Speaker 2: in the world is John McLaughlin. This is the one
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Speaker 2: presidents and prime ministers and the biggest campaigns us. John
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Speaker 2: McLaughlin has a website is McLaughlin online dot com, and
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Speaker 2: he's with us now, John McLaughlin, how you doing.
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Speaker 3: I'm doing well because you say very nice, flattering things.
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Speaker 3: But I'm fortunate that I've polled for Donald Trump. And
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Speaker 3: as you and I have discussed before, President Trump proved
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Speaker 3: that polls rite a long time ago in twenty sixteen
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Speaker 3: and has done so since. So I guess, yeah, we'll
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Speaker 3: see about now he's talking to you know, some of
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Speaker 3: his friends are talking to him about twenty twenty eight.
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Speaker 3: We'll see, well, but I think I think, yeah, I
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Speaker 3: don't think that's I don't think that's going to happen.
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Speaker 3: So that's I get to listen to the nice things
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Speaker 3: people say about our polls, because last year we said
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Speaker 3: he was going to sweep the battleground states and when
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Speaker 3: the popular vote and he proves that true.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, just explain to people these public polls they're cheap, flimsy.
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Speaker 2: They're like five hundred people, a thousand people. That's not
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Speaker 2: always likely voters. I mean, what you do is much
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Speaker 2: more scientific, elaborate, much much bigger scale. So but we
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Speaker 2: haven't had a real poll from a real what they
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Speaker 2: call the internals by any of the campaigns.
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Speaker 3: Have we not really? And when you're looking at I
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Speaker 3: mean when you look at national polls, like like they've
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Speaker 3: gone back to their bias against the president and they're
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Speaker 3: kind of right. It could be I llegal immigrant. Yes,
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Speaker 3: they have cell phones. I mean, it's serious. Some of
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Speaker 3: these polls, like there was a poll out last week Economists.
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Speaker 3: You go of online, so there's an online poll and
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Speaker 3: they had when you go into their internals they have
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Speaker 3: more liberal it's so wrong. They have more liberals and conservatives.
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Speaker 3: That's the opposite of the exit poles from West November.
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Speaker 3: And they have more Democrats than Republicans. Again it's the
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Speaker 3: opposite of the exit Polese. The big killer is this
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Speaker 3: ecoress Ugo Poland was done like October twentieth. They and
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Speaker 3: they had that they had like twelve hundred people, but
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Speaker 3: they're supposedly you know, adults. But they had only thirty
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Speaker 3: five percent Trump voters. We got fifty percent. So when
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Speaker 3: they come out with a job approval for President Trump
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Speaker 3: of forty three percent, it means they short as fifteen
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Speaker 3: points just they had because nine out of ten uh
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Speaker 3: Trump voters still approve the job he's doing at least,
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Speaker 3: if not one hundred percent. So you got so just
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Speaker 3: they had fifteen to the forty three, that'd be fifty eight.
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Speaker 3: So the better polls have them like we had in September,
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Speaker 3: we had forty nine percent job for forty six disapproved.
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Speaker 3: We had the Republicans winning for Congress forty seven to
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Speaker 3: forty one. But it was a thousand likely voters. We
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Speaker 3: know the voters were contacting the voters. We're asking them
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Speaker 3: how likely they are to vote, because it's a big
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Speaker 3: difference because in the last national election, you had a
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Speaker 3: hundred sixty million people vote appartment on a hunred and
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Speaker 3: fifty six million people voted. Its one hundred and sixty
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Speaker 3: and twenty twenty. So that's out of a universe of
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Speaker 3: you know, like two hundred and fifty two hundred and
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Speaker 3: sixty adults in the United States. And then when you
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Speaker 3: get to when you get to the midterm elections, the
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Speaker 3: midterm the elections go down even further. So in twenty eighteen,
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Speaker 3: one hundred and eighteen million people come out, and in
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Speaker 3: twenty twenty two it was one hundred and twelve million.
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Speaker 3: So nationally, when you're saying a thousand likely voters trying
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Speaker 3: to represent a universe, it's a universe of probably about
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Speaker 3: one hundred and ten hundred and twenty million voters that
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Speaker 3: are probably going to come out, and polls really don't
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Speaker 3: predict turnout. You have to look at other barometers when
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Speaker 3: you get close to the election.
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Speaker 2: Well, now let me ask you about the maryl race.
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Speaker 2: I know you haven't pulled it. Nobody's really pulled, no
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Speaker 2: real top polling. But he's done this mayoral race. But
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Speaker 2: what is your sense right now? Is Mom Donnie on
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Speaker 2: track to win? Has he been losing steam? Is Cuomo gaining?
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Speaker 3: By the way, we did poland January for Betsy McCoy. Yeah,
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Speaker 3: first her Save our City project, and back then we
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Speaker 3: had only thirty one percent of the Democrat primary voters
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Speaker 3: preferring Cuomo. And when you have the second choice cause
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Speaker 3: that ran Chois vote it was only five. So I
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Speaker 3: told Betsy, he's not going to win. It's just and
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Speaker 3: it seemed to be right for the primary, but Mondombe
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Speaker 3: hadn't emerged. And when you look at the like the
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Speaker 3: Fox News pole that came out, and it was like
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Speaker 3: October fourteenth was the day that came out. The difficult
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Speaker 3: part is Mondomnie's the most favorable of the candidates, so
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Speaker 3: they had Mondomie ahead, but he had a fifty eight
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Speaker 3: to thirty seven farewell on Fairwell, while Cuomo in that
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Speaker 3: poll was fifty to forty eight and Curse was thirty
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Speaker 3: six to fifty three Farewell, fun Farewell. And then there
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Speaker 3: was the ar the AA r P pole which was
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Speaker 3: one thousand and forty likely voters that Gotham did and
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Speaker 3: it was mild after the last male race was kind
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Speaker 3: of a snoozer with Adams and so you only had
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Speaker 3: a million people. So you know, when you think about it,
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Speaker 3: in the city, you could have one point eight million voted.
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Speaker 3: When I was polling for lee Zelden and we were
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Speaker 3: in a close race with Hockel, there was one point
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Speaker 3: eight million people came out in the city, or when
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Speaker 3: I was polling for President Trump. You had two and
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Speaker 3: a half million people come out and those races. You know,
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Speaker 3: Lee and President Trump did as well as a Republican
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Speaker 3: could do in the city where we got thirty percent.
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Speaker 3: And so this aar p pole when you're looking at it,
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Speaker 3: it's probably tilted, it's probably too old, and may not
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Speaker 3: be democratic enough in it. Yeah, in it, but they
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Speaker 3: have they had. That's the one that caused the stir
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Speaker 3: where you had the three where you had a Mondaminia
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Speaker 3: forty three in Quoma twenty nine and Curtis at nineteen.
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Speaker 3: So Curtis is running behind where Trump and Zelden were,
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Speaker 3: but in the two way. That's because it was an
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Speaker 3: older sample, maybe a little light on the Democrats path.
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Speaker 3: It was forty five Mandammie, forty one Cuomo, and that's
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Speaker 3: when they all started. Curtis got to get out now,
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Speaker 3: Curtis needs to be Curtis and Cuomo needed to be
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Speaker 3: going after Mandami in a heavy way since all summer.
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Speaker 3: They should have been, but they've been. You know, these
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Speaker 3: all these people, like you say, the billionaires who don't
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Speaker 3: know what they're doing, they've all been playing a musical
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Speaker 3: chairs saying no this. Once you get out this, once
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Speaker 3: you get out the problem is when you look at
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Speaker 3: the internals of that poll, Mondami is a net positive
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Speaker 3: forty eight to forty five fairbele to unfavable, and Curtis
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Speaker 3: is thirty five fareuell forty seven unfairal So he's a
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Speaker 3: net negative and Cuomo's a net negative thirty seven Faarabel
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Speaker 3: to forty eight unfavorable.
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Speaker 2: But now you saw that. Yeah, but you said, way
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Speaker 2: back months ago, you said, the only way to stop
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Speaker 2: Mondani You're gonna have to have them bombard the airwaves
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Speaker 2: with no negative ads, bring out his negatives, drive up
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Speaker 2: his unfavorables. Where were the donors. They didn't do it,
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Speaker 2: none of the packs.
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Speaker 1: Where were they No, by the way, I don't use
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Speaker 1: the word negatives, issue adds, issue adds, but where were
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Speaker 1: they sat they set it out?
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Speaker 3: Well, it's cheaper that way, they don't. It didn't cost
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Speaker 3: them anything. I mean, Clomo wasted a lot of their
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Speaker 3: money in the primary. And now now you know, but
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Speaker 3: you have you know, like we ran President Trump's campaign,
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Speaker 3: it was a contrast between his job as president versus
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Speaker 3: Biden and Harris the job they had done. And people
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Speaker 3: respond to issues. Now you're seeing you know, kitchen sink
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Speaker 3: ads coming out about Mndomie's positions on the issues. About
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Speaker 3: legalizing prostitution, it'll increase human trafficking. He wants to legalize drugs,
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Speaker 3: it'll increase drug use on the subways. Him defunding the
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Speaker 3: you know, closing jails to fund. By the way, the
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Speaker 3: one who won the last two mayoral debates is Bruce
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Speaker 3: Blakeman and Nassa. Yeah, because works for Bruce out there.
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Speaker 3: Bruce has done a great job. He's cut taxes, he's
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Speaker 3: refused to raise taxes in four years. He's hired hundreds
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Speaker 3: of new police officers. They're the savist county in America.
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Speaker 3: And so Mandamie in Nassau County has a twenty five
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Speaker 3: favorable he has a sixty nine percent.
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Speaker 2: Now, Blakeman's an easy win, right, there's no chance of
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Speaker 2: Blakeman racing, we hope.
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Speaker 3: Well, he can't take it for granted. It's an eight
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Speaker 3: point Democrat county. So there's more Democrats in Nassau than
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Speaker 3: there are Republicans.
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Speaker 2: Everybody get out, Yeah, everybody vote for Bruce Blakeman. Well,
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Speaker 2: just about it. We got like a minute left. What
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Speaker 2: do you think is going to happen in this selection
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Speaker 2: turnout wise, well we get a big turnout can make
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Speaker 2: a difference. You think we'll get.
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Speaker 3: It, Well on Saturday, they start tomorrow, they start voting early,
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Speaker 3: so you'll have actual counts of people by party, by registration,
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Speaker 3: by burrow. And if it's like the primary room, Mandamie's
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Speaker 3: his nonprofits, that stores funds, et cetera. If they start
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Speaker 3: getting people online and voting, that won't be good for
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Speaker 3: Andrew Cuomo, Curtis Leer. So you know, uh so, if
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Speaker 3: you if you, if you care about New York City
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Speaker 3: like we do, you need to make sure that it's
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Speaker 3: not just you know, the people Mondomie ortization. You can't.
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Speaker 2: You got to get out of the vote. Hey, Clomo
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Speaker 2: had a pretty good debate. Surprised everybody. Does that mean anything?
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Speaker 2: Is that going to help? Is it too late?
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Speaker 3: It definitely helps, And it's not too late until election day.
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Speaker 3: You got to you know, I mean, if that forty
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Speaker 3: five forty one is close, you know, granted he's he's
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Speaker 3: still got to do a lot of issue education and
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Speaker 3: a short amount of time on Mondomie's on the record
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Speaker 3: between them and and you know, that's the probably that's
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Speaker 3: why Curtis still has has a significant amount of the
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Speaker 3: vote because there's a lot of people that remember Cuomo
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Speaker 3: was the guy who gave us cashlespail. Casha's bale has
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Speaker 3: like been really bad for you. So so as far
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Speaker 3: as the election goes, you know, Clomo's got to he's
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Speaker 3: got to make up a lot autogram against Bondomie where
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Speaker 3: the final points could be the toughest points to uh
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Speaker 3: to recapture. And you've got you know, and you got
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Speaker 3: other races like you've got more Maron given Alvin Bragg
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Speaker 3: a race that's been you know, oh shadow by the
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Speaker 3: mail Horace.
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Speaker 2: Everybody votes for Maud Marrin for da get rid of
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Speaker 2: Alvin Bragg, Maud maren for day. John McLachlin, we're out
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Speaker 2: of time, but we'll do it again very soon because
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Speaker 2: we always want to hear from you, John McLoughlin, the
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Speaker 2: biggest of the best polster in the world. McLachlan online
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Speaker 2: dot Com is his website. John McLaughlin, thanks for being
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Speaker 2: with us.
10:37
Speaker 3: Thank you, Thank you, Mark.
10:38
Speaker 2: Take care, Hey, don't forget if you can't listen to
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