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BLACKROCK GOT OUT! | $875 Billion Reason Your Bank Could Be NEXT! | Simply Originals · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Something just happened and Wall Street does not want normal
• 0:03
  people to understand what it means.
• 0:05
  Because while everybody was busy arguing online, refreshing price
• 0:10
  charts and pretending the system is fine, the largest asset
• 0:15
  manager in human history quietly made a move.
• 0:18
  Not a tweet, not a headline, not a CNBC panic banner with a bald
• 0:23
  guy sweating through his blazer. A move back rock.
• 0:27
  Yeah, that small empire with a logo, $13 trillion under
• 0:32
  management. And when an empire like that
• 0:35
  changes positions, you should pay attention, because the money
• 0:39
  always moves before the explanation.
• 0:42
  And here's the part that matters to you.
• 0:45
  This isn't just about stocks. This isn't just about portfolio
• 0:50
  strategy. This is not just rich people
• 0:52
  doing rich people things in conference rooms with cucumber
• 0:56
  water and Xanax. This may be a warning about
• 0:59
  regional banks, commercial real estate, deposit safety, and a
• 1:04
  financial system that is way more fragile than the average
• 1:07
  person realizes. And if that sounds dramatic,
• 1:10
  good. It should, because buried inside
• 1:14
  Blackrock's latest positioning is a message that says the
• 1:18
  stress is not over, the danger is not priced in, and the people
• 1:23
  with the best data are already moving.
• 1:26
  So today, we're breaking down what BlackRock just did, why
• 1:30
  regional banks may be the weak link again, why commercial real
• 1:35
  estate is shaping up to be a monster problem.
• 1:38
  We've been talking about this for a long time, and why every
• 1:41
  one of these cracks keeps pointing back to the same
• 1:45
  conclusion. The more unstable the Fiat
• 1:48
  system gets, the more obvious Bitcoin becomes.
• 1:52
  Crazy Uncle Larry knows something, and we're going to
• 1:55
  find out exactly what that is. I can see a year from now oil at
• 2:05
  $40 a barrel. I could see it above $150.00 a
• 2:09
  barrel. We have two very extreme
• 2:11
  outcomes. And in my conversations
• 2:15
  throughout the world with the US government and all that, to me,
• 2:19
  everybody has to recognize it's there's not going to be an
• 2:23
  outcome that's somewhere in the middle.
• 2:25
  It's going to either be two extremes is, is Iran a country
• 2:30
  that can be accepted by the international community?
• 2:33
  Can Iran be a country that participates in the world again?
• 2:37
  And if that outcome occurred, then you could have the Iranian
• 2:40
  oil back into the marketplace alongside what the growth of the
• 2:44
  Venezuelan oil. And you could, you could paint a
• 2:46
  picture where where oil prices could be lower than they were
• 2:49
  prior to the Iranian war. If there's a cessation of war
• 2:54
  and yet Iran remains a threat, a threat to trade, a threat to
• 2:59
  the, to the streets of Hormuth, then I would argue that we could
• 3:03
  have years, years of, you know, above $100, closer to $150.00
• 3:09
  oil. What happens to the global
• 3:10
  economy? If that happens, how do we see
• 3:12
  it? We'll have global recession.
• 3:14
  Let's start here. BlackRock is not your local
• 3:16
  bank. They are not handing out car
• 3:19
  loans to a guy named Todd who wants to refinance a bass boat.
• 3:23
  They manage institutional capital, pension funds,
• 3:27
  sovereign money, insurance reserves, retirement portfolios,
• 3:30
  massive ETF flows, the kind of money that moves markets just by
• 3:34
  breathing in a certain direction.
• 3:36
  So when BlackRock shifts from overweight to neutral on US
• 3:40
  equities, that matters. When they dial back on small
• 3:44
  caps, that matters. When they lean away from long
• 3:47
  duration bonds, that matters. And when their commentary starts
• 3:51
  smelling, feeling like stagflation, recession risk and
• 3:55
  sector vulnerability, that really matters.
• 3:58
  Because BlackRock is not in the business of making you feel
• 4:01
  calm. They are in the business of
• 4:04
  preserving capital. That's it.
• 4:06
  That's the game. And when the biggest money
• 4:09
  manager on earth starts repositioning, you do not ask
• 4:13
  what are they saying? You ask what are they running
• 4:17
  from? And one of the biggest answers
• 4:19
  right now looks a lot like this. Something we've been talking
• 4:22
  about for a while. Regional banks.
• 4:25
  Not the giant too big to fail behemoths with armies of lawyers
• 4:29
  and a direct hotline to the people who ruin your life
• 4:31
  professionally. Oh no.
• 4:33
  Regional banks. The banks that sit right in the
• 4:36
  blast radius of commercial real estate stress local economic
• 4:41
  slowdown and deposit nervousness.
• 4:43
  And that is where this whole thing starts getting ugly.
• 4:48
  Here's the number you need to understand. 875 billion.
• 4:53
  That is the amount of commercial real estate debt maturing in
• 4:56
  2026. Office buildings, retail
• 4:59
  centers, hotels, commercial properties.
• 5:01
  All the stuff that looked amazing when Bunny was cheap and
• 5:05
  everyone thought rates would stay low forever.
• 5:07
  And spoiler alert, they did not. Now all that debt has to roll
• 5:12
  over into a world where financing is more expensive,
• 5:15
  buildings are worth less, occupancy is weaker, and the
• 5:19
  assumptions behind those loans look like they were made by a
• 5:22
  golden retriever wearing a tie. And regional banks?
• 5:27
  They're loaded with this stuff. That's the key.
• 5:29
  Big, diversified banks have commercial real estate exposure,
• 5:33
  sure, but regional banks are way more concentrated.
• 5:37
  In plain English, if this market gets ugly, they don't have as
• 5:40
  many ways to absorb the hit. They're local, they're
• 5:43
  concentrated. They're exposed.
• 5:45
  That's why this matters. Because regional banks spent
• 5:48
  years doing what every institution does when rates are
• 5:51
  low and prudence dies. They reached for yield.
• 5:55
  Safe assets weren't paying enough.
• 5:57
  Treasury yields were pathetic. The world was drunk on cheap
• 6:01
  money. So banks piled into commercial
• 6:03
  real estate because it looked solid.
• 6:05
  Buildings, collateral, cash flow.
• 6:07
  What could possibly go wrong? Oh, I don't know.
• 6:10
  Maybe the Internet happened. Maybe e-commerce happened, maybe
• 6:15
  remote work happened. Maybe half the office towers in
• 6:18
  America now feel like haunted Weworks.
• 6:21
  But the loans were made anyway, and now the bill is showing up.
• 6:26
  Now here's where it gets worse. If this were just a normal slow
• 6:30
  down, maybe rates come down, refinancing gets easier, and the
• 6:34
  system limps along. We've we've seen this before.
• 6:37
  But this is not a normal slow down.
• 6:39
  This is the trap. Oil shocks, inflation pressure,
• 6:43
  geopolitical stress, recession fear, higher for longer rate
• 6:47
  risk. So now the Federal Reserve has a
• 6:50
  problem because if inflation stays sticky, they can't just
• 6:55
  slash rates and write in like heroes.
• 6:57
  And every month rates stay elevated, this refinancing wall
• 7:02
  becomes nastier. That means more borrowers can't
• 7:06
  refinance on good terms, more properties underwater, more
• 7:10
  loans get stressed, more provisions hit bank earnings,
• 7:14
  more investors get nervous, more depositors ask questions.
• 7:18
  And in a digital banking world, asking questions can turn into
• 7:24
  moving money really fast. That's the thing people still
• 7:27
  don't fully appreciate after 2023.
• 7:30
  Bank runs used to look like black and white footage of men
• 7:33
  in hats standing in lines outside of a branch.
• 7:37
  Now it's just a rich guy in his kitchen tap and a screen while
• 7:40
  making a protein shake. That's all it is. 30 seconds,
• 7:43
  swipe transfer gone. That is the speed of a modern
• 7:47
  banking panic. And if you think perception
• 7:49
  doesn't matter, you learned absolutely nothing from Silicon
• 7:53
  Valley Bank. Banks don't die when the public
• 7:56
  finally gets a press release. Banks die when confidence
• 8:00
  leaves. Let me simplify the whole
• 8:02
  disaster for you. Regional banks spent the 20 tens
• 8:05
  and early twenty 20s making a giant bet.
• 8:08
  And that bet was rates stay manageable, commercial property
• 8:12
  values hold up, office demand comes back, refinancing stays
• 8:17
  available, and deposits remain sticky.
• 8:20
  That was the bet, and for a while it looked brilliant.
• 8:23
  Then reality showed up like a repo man.
• 8:26
  Office vacancies stayed elevated, remote work didn't
• 8:29
  magically disappear, retail got smoked by structural change,
• 8:34
  rates surged, bond portfolios got hit, property values
• 8:38
  softened, the economy got shakier.
• 8:41
  And suddenly these banks weren't just local lenders anymore.
• 8:45
  They were giant leveraged wagers on a world that no longer
• 8:50
  exists. That's the whole story.
• 8:52
  And just to make it extra spicy, many of these same institutions
• 8:56
  were also sitting on unrealized losses elsewhere from the last
• 9:00
  rate shock. So this isn't 1 clean problem,
• 9:04
  it is stacked fragility. It's we survived one thing and
• 9:08
  now the second thing is arriving before the first thing was fully
• 9:11
  repaired or even close to it. And this is where people make
• 9:15
  the same mistake every time they think because the crisis is not
• 9:19
  on television yet it isn't real wrong.
• 9:22
  The smart money leaves in layers.
• 9:24
  It doesn't announce itself with fireworks in a marching band.
• 9:28
  It rebalances, it rotates, it gets more defensive, it becomes
• 9:32
  selective. It manages exposure.
• 9:35
  That's how polite people say we'd like to not die with you
• 9:40
  going down with the ship. We've seen this movie before.
• 9:43
  Savings and loan crisis. Same basic dynamic.
• 9:47
  Concentrated exposure, deteriorating fundamentals, slow
• 9:51
  recognition. The boom. 2023 regional bank
• 9:54
  stress confidence evaporated, asset mismatches mattered,
• 9:59
  deposit flight got real, and suddenly everyone on TV became
• 10:03
  an expert after the fire started.
• 10:05
  That's the point. Institutional capital does not
• 10:08
  wait around for confirmation that the house is burning.
• 10:12
  It leaves when it smells smoke. So again, when BlackRock shifts
• 10:16
  posture, it's not a guarantee of collapse, but it is a massive
• 10:20
  blinking neon sign that says maybe stop assuming everything
• 10:24
  is fine just because the people on television are still smiling.
• 10:28
  Let's put the whole pressure stack together because again,
• 10:32
  this is not one problem. It is 6 problems showing up at
• 10:37
  the same party #1 commercial real estate maturities.
• 10:41
  That wall is huge and refinancing is harder.
• 10:44
  Like a diamond in an ice storm #2 concentration risk.
• 10:49
  Regional banks are more exposed than the giants.
• 10:52
  Less diversification, more pain sensitivity #3 private credit
• 10:57
  stress. That entire shadow lending
• 10:59
  machine is showing signs of strain, and once collateral
• 11:04
  starts getting marked down, nobody acts calm for very long
• 11:08
  #4 inflation and energy shock. If oil stays elevated, the Fed
• 11:14
  gets boxed in. And if the Fed gets boxed in,
• 11:17
  CRE borrowers don't get relief #5 recession risk.
• 11:21
  Regional banks live and die with local economies.
• 11:24
  Local business stress hits them first.
• 11:27
  Number six, institutional rotation.
• 11:29
  This is the one people always ignore until it's too late, when
• 11:33
  the giant pools of capital decide they don't like the
• 11:35
  sector evaluations. Weakened sentiment weakens
• 11:39
  confidence. Weekends.
• 11:40
  And then the feedback loop begins.
• 11:42
  That's how a slow burn becomes a fast panic.
• 11:45
  Not because one thing broke overnight, because 5 or 6 things
• 11:48
  were already weakening the floor and then somebody heavy walked
• 11:52
  across it. Some giant chungus.
• 11:55
  And that's why Black Rock matters here.
• 11:56
  They are not the whole story. They are the confirmation that
• 12:00
  the story is serious, and it looks like Len Alden sees the
• 12:05
  writing on the wall as well. I.
• 12:07
  Think when we're on stage yesterday, we were talking about
• 12:09
  the the things that do frighten you and you said when it gets to
• 12:12
  the issues, it's like straight up on Moose is number 12 and
• 12:15
  three, Yeah. So obviously the energy crisis
• 12:17
  being a part of that. But what are the things that
• 12:19
  you're looking at there that concern you well?
• 12:20
  One is, I mean, 15 to 20% of of global energy production is just
• 12:26
  offline or at least can't get to where it has to go and then
• 12:29
  starts going offline, some of it damaged.
• 12:33
  It's not clear when it's going to reopen.
• 12:34
  It could, you know, peace talks could break out a week from now
• 12:37
  and then after some further weeks you start getting things
• 12:40
  coming back online. So either way, it's going to
• 12:42
  take bare minimum weeks to get flows.
• 12:44
  But I mean that that could take months or longer.
• 12:48
  And there's no kind of viable alternatives to get that energy
• 12:53
  out. And really energy shortages or
• 12:56
  food shortages are about the worst case scenario for any
• 12:59
  economy. And they often even go together
• 13:04
  because it's not just oil and gas going through the straight.
• 13:07
  It's also fertilizer input. So I mean, natural gas is a
• 13:10
  major fertilizer input. There's also other, you know,
• 13:14
  urea, sulfur, helium. There are things that that
• 13:18
  either for fertilizers or for electronics manufacturing or for
• 13:23
  even just medical equipment, there's tons of components that.
• 13:27
  So when you. Talk about oil, food production,
• 13:29
  medical equipment, electronics, it's like it's everything.
• 13:31
  It's everything, yeah. And it's, it's, it's the, it's
• 13:34
  the foundation. It's like, you know, where the
• 13:36
  economy is based an upside on pyramid.
• 13:37
  And that little tip is basically raw materials.
• 13:41
  And that's the part that's disrupted.
• 13:43
  Because if you have a let's go back to private credit, let's
• 13:45
  see if a $500 billion hole just shows up in private credit.
• 13:48
  I mean, that's, that's, that's three months of like US deficit
• 13:52
  spending. Like that's like literally you
• 13:54
  can snap your fingers and make that problem go away or just
• 13:58
  it's like it's it's, you know, we live in a Fiat world, but
• 14:01
  when you have molecules that just can't get to where they
• 14:03
  have to go, so. What do you actually do with
• 14:05
  this? Not panic.
• 14:07
  Do not run around like a lunatic yelling at a bank teller who
• 14:10
  makes $16.00 an hour and just wants to survive until lunch.
• 14:14
  You precise. First, know what bank you use.
• 14:17
  Know whether it's a giant diversified institution or a
• 14:20
  smaller lender with concentrated exposure.
• 14:23
  Second, understand Deposit Insurance limits.
• 14:26
  If you've got large balances sitting in one place above
• 14:29
  insured thresholds minimum, know the risk.
• 14:32
  Ignorance is not a strategy. Third, stop confusing a stock
• 14:36
  price with a deposit account. A bank stock can get obliterated
• 14:40
  before insured depositors necessarily take a hit.
• 14:44
  Different risks, learn the difference. 4th, watch for signs
• 14:47
  of stress instead of waiting for a dramatic headline.
• 14:50
  Weak stock performance, rising concern around exposure, ugly
• 14:54
  earnings language, capital raises, defense, positioning.
• 14:57
  Those matter. And 5th, most importantly, start
• 15:01
  thinking outside the banking system entirely because this is
• 15:05
  the real reason people keep refusing to learn.
• 15:08
  If your entire life saving strategy depends on a chain of
• 15:11
  counterparties, political decisions, central bank
• 15:15
  responses, bailouts, accounting games, and confidence staying
• 15:19
  intact, that is not Peace of Mind.
• 15:22
  That is dependency. And dependency is fine until it
• 15:26
  isn't. But thanks to our friends over
• 15:28
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• 15:31
  people or these old busted crusty institutions with your
• 15:35
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• 15:39
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• 15:46
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• 15:48
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• 15:59
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• 16:02
  consultation right now using that QR code or the link in the
• 16:05
  show notes and begin your journey towards sovereignty
• 16:08
  today, the Bitcoin wedding. And This is why Bitcoin matters.
• 16:12
  Not because every bank fails tomorrow morning.
• 16:14
  Not because the world ends by Friday.
• 16:16
  Not because somebody with laser eyes made a prediction while
• 16:20
  wearing wrap around sunglasses and a rented Lambeau.
• 16:23
  Bitcoin matters because it removes a layer of trust.
• 16:28
  That's it. In a world of commercial real
• 16:30
  estate rollovers, hidden losses, fragile confidence, policy
• 16:34
  traps, institutional front running an endless financial
• 16:37
  theater, Bitcoin is the asset that does not need a regional
• 16:41
  bank to survive. It does not care about office
• 16:44
  occupancy in Chicago. It does not care whether some
• 16:48
  over leveraged strip mall loan gets extended for another 12
• 16:52
  months so executives can buy time.
• 16:55
  It does not care about central planners trying to the needle
• 16:58
  between inflation and recession with the precision of a drunk
• 17:02
  guy playing darts with a thermal detonator.
• 17:05
  It just keeps producing blocks. And that is why moments like
• 17:09
  this, weirdly, are not just dangerous.
• 17:12
  They are clarifying. Because every new stress event
• 17:15
  in the Fiat system teaches the same lesson.
• 17:19
  Your money is only as safe as the structure holding it.
• 17:22
  And those structures are a lot shakier than they look.
• 17:25
  So when BlackRock shifts, pay attention.
• 17:27
  When regional bank risk rises, pay attention.
• 17:30
  When commercial real estate stress builds, pay attention.
• 17:34
  Because the people closest to the system are telling you, in
• 17:37
  their own quiet, polished institutional language, that the
• 17:40
  system is not as stable as advertised.
• 17:43
  And if the biggest asset manager on earth is repositioning for
• 17:47
  that reality, maybe you should too.
• 17:50
  Not with panic, with clarity. That means understanding your
• 17:54
  bank, Understanding your exposure, Understanding self
• 17:57
  custody, understanding why separating money from state and
• 18:01
  from fragile banking intermediaries is not some
• 18:04
  fringe idea anymore. It's common sense.
• 18:07
  You are your own bank now. You're holding pristine
• 18:12
  collateral, and if you ever need liquidity, hell just to buy
• 18:15
  groceries in 2026, you can make loans to yourself and pay them
• 18:20
  off on your own time. Here's something most Bitcoin
• 18:23
  holders never figure out until it's too late.
• 18:25
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• 18:28
  And selling means taxes. Selling means exiting your
• 18:33
  position. Selling means you lose.
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  leaden dot IO today. During the wars, ripple effects
• 19:33
  on Americans are only growing. The national average for a
• 19:36
  gallon of gas rising to $4.12, an 80 cent jump in just a month.
• 19:42
  No, soaring fuel prices are now taking a toll all across the US
• 19:45
  economy. AB CS Sam Brock is here in the
• 19:47
  studio with that part of the story.
• 19:49
  Sam, good morning. Craig, Savannah, good morning.
• 19:51
  The International Energy Agency has already declared this the
• 19:54
  worst oil disruption in history. And guys, while we may think
• 19:57
  about paying more at the pump, this crisis has such a wider
• 20:00
  reach. From higher airline baggage fees
• 20:03
  to selling items on Amazon to the price of produce at the
• 20:06
  grocery store, the trickle down effect of oil is turning into a
• 20:09
  deluge. The signal has been given, the
• 20:12
  capital is moving, and the people who wait for certainty
• 20:15
  are usually the people reading about the danger after the smart
• 20:18
  money already left. It also appears smart money are
• 20:21
  building bunkers and preparing for Armageddon.
• 20:24
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• 20:52
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• 20:58
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• 21:00
  racket. Smash the likes so I don't have
• 21:03
  to live under an overpass. Subscribe.
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• 21:08
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• 21:11
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• 21:13
  Because in the next episode, well, let's just say you're not
• 21:17
  ready. Certain.
• 21:20
  Hey, love you guys. Catch you next time if you.
• 21:23
  Prefer to go down with the ship.