Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk with Conner Bridgman | Corn Momentum Watch

Transcript

AG Squawk with Conner Bridgman | Corn Momentum Watch · AG Bull

• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: A mixed bag of higher and lower closes in today's trade.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: Crude oil futures shot higher.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: And feeder cattle, well, I mean, they tried.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: We'll be digging deep into the corn market today as watchers are beginning to seem, I guess what I would call mildly bold up.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: From behind the big blue, bodacious microphone of Ag Bull, your pal Davis Michelson.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_00: So glad to be here with you on a Monday.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: Monday the 13th.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: I know it's Friday the 13th.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: It's supposed to be the spooky one, but still, there's a 13 on this one.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: The markets actually wasn't too bad a day in the markets themselves.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: We'll talk about them in just a second.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: And I've got Connor Bridgeman coming up from Agmarket.net.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to focus in.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: We'll hit the high points.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: We'll find out if anything else caught his eye around the marketplace today.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: But really, I want to focus on King Corn because the weather forecast is shaping up.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: We had that report last week.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: It just seems like maybe corn could gather some upward momentum here.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: I don't want to get us out too far ahead of our skis, but I feel like Connor is the perfect guy to talk to about it today.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: Let me give you the play-by-play on the markets in today's action.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: Corn and soybeans were mostly higher to start the day with Chicago and KC wheat under pressure just after the open.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, livestock futures apparently had that second cup of coffee, popped higher as day trade began.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: That included the hogs.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: I've been watching the markets on plus 500.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: We use plus 500 T4 software every single day for real-time quotes and more.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: That's plus 500 by lunchtime.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: Corn and soybeans still on the good foot, but winter wheat was under pressure with KC off around seven cents and Chicago just fractionally lower.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: Cattle continued to climb, but lean hogs gave back early gains, trading steady to 50 cents lower at lunch.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: By the end of the session, feeder cattle were 20 to 90 cents lower.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: Fats were mixed, but mostly around a dime higher.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: Hogs moderately lower.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna save that one for when we get Connor in here.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: And before we do, I I gotta send a shout out.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_00: Shout out! Come on, John from Skinner Farms.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: I understand that you've you you've been a friend of Mr.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: Grasopi and of mine from a distance for a good long time.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: We we appreciate you, buddy.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: I'm glad uh glad you gave us a shout out.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna send one right back.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: Come on.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: Hey, shout out.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: And real quick, just another shout out to all who've subscribed in the last few days.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: It's been hot and heavy, folks, and we really, really appreciate it.
• 3:03
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• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: You know, well, let me shout these people out.
• 3:07
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• 3:08
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• 3:10
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• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: Take your marketing by the horns with Ag Bull Intel.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: You can pick us up at there was a pop-up on the screen there.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: It distracted me.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: Did you catch it?
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: Agbull.com or 855737 Farm.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: And finally, Tommy wanted me to mention uh his conversation with Paul Nefer, the farm CPA.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: That's over there on the premium side.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: We hope to see you there really soon.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: Shout out to everybody.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: How's that?
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: Shout out to everybody.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: With that, let me bring in the uh on the program that lets guests talk.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: If they want to, they don't have to, but join me in welcoming Connor Bridgman from Agmarket.net.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: Connor, great to see you, buddy boy.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_00: Your first time here on Ag Squawk.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: Uh we really appreciate you taking the time, homie.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, well, thanks for having me.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_01: You talk about me not talking.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_01: I was so enamored with that open, I was hoping you're gonna keep going.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_01: That was great.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_01: I could keep going, but nobody wants to see that.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody wants to see that.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_00: They want to hear, they want to hear smart people talking, that's exactly why we've we've brought you here.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: First time on the show with us.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_00: I think you and I have interacted in the past in a previous entanglement, but let's start fresh here.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: I've got a fresh new audience, a great new show.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_00: Tell us about yourself.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: Where are you?
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: Where are you from?
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: Who's Connor?
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah, and we have interacted before.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_01: Connor Bridgman, born and raised Assumption, Illinois.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_01: That's where my office is.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_01: You know, what I call Central Illinois.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_01: I had a conversation with the guy today, and he said, Well, I'm in central Illinois, and we were two hours apart.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_01: So I consider where I'm at, central Illinois.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_01: We can debate, you know, Bloomington area.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_01: If you say central Illinois, I think that's north central Illinois.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_01: But anyway, Assumption, Illinois.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_01: If you got a GSI GS uh GSI bin in your backyard, they were made about three miles that way from my office.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_01: That's how you know this little town, if you've heard of it.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_01: And so I'm with Ag Market.net.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_01: Happy to be there.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_00: And yeah, so how long have you been over there at Ag Market?
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_01: It'd be about a year and a half.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_01: I've been in the uh ag trading or merchandising or some role for 12 years now.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_01: Wow, that came on fast.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_01: But been with Ag Market for about a year and a half now.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: It creeps up, doesn't it, buddy?
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_01: It does.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_01: It does.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I understand I understand you just got home from from vacation.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_00: Did you have a good time?
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: Or see, sometimes I take a vacation and I get home and I'm sort of depressed.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_00: Like, I want to stay there forever.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_00: Sometimes I get home and I'm just wiped out and like, oh, I'm so glad to be home.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: Which which way do you fall this time around?
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_01: We've got little, we've got little kids, family vacation.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_01: My brother has little kids.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_01: We were there for five days, and on on day five, we were ready to pack up.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_01: And it was it was one of those we were happy to be home.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_01: We had a great time, don't get me wrong.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_01: But then also, Davis, I had this knack.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_01: I don't take a lot of vacations.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_01: We did in was it February, I took the kids.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_01: We did like a water park, okay?
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_01: Snuck away.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_01: It was right when when crude oil, I think crude oil moved, you know, it was when it was up and down that day.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_01: Corn market was on fire.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_01: That's when I was gone.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_01: So then this past week, it was, you know, I wanted I wanted to be home for the June 30th USG airport, right?
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_01: If you're in our business, you got to be sitting in front of a computer for that one.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_01: And I was like, okay, you know, let's go ahead and plan it.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_01: We should be okay.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_01: And what happens when I'm gone?
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_01: We get a little life in this corn, we get a little life in this market, and especially the corn market.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_01: And so for all your listeners, just so you know, if if you need me to be on vacation 24-7, if that's what it takes to get these markets going, I will do it for you guys.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: You are a giver, sir.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_00: We appreciate that sort of commitment.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_00: I want to get into crude oil because I have a feeling it's gonna kind of lead us toward the corn market a little bit.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_00: But before we do, anything else in the beans, the wheat, maybe in the livestocks that just just sort of stuck out to you.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_00: I don't want to spend any time on it other than I don't want to miss anything either.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_00: Anything there that that we need to highlight before we move on to crude oil and and then hopefully into corn?
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, I think crude oil and corn are the main main things to talk about.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_01: Wheat didn't do a whole lot on the backs of the USC a report.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_01: Soybeans, new crop soybeans cost 12 bucks.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_01: We couldn't stay there.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_01: You know, we got as high as 1207.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_01: I think the previous high was about 1213, right around there.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_01: So we're we tried to test it, closed a little bit below 12.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_01: I think that's the story in soybeans.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_01: And then crude oil is it's just when you think that story's over, we get more headlines over the weekend today, right?
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_01: Straight of whore moves is closed.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_01: President Trump said that he's uh looking at charging like a 20% uh fee.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_01: Um, if you want to pass through there, something like that.
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_01: And we got this market excited again.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_01: Right now, it's up right around you know, 620 and continues, it feels like it got some legs back in it, right?
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_01: Two weeks ago, that the the conflict was settling.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_01: We got crude you know back in the 60s range, kind of a little bit higher, but back to where it was before this conflict.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_01: Now we got it trying to make a run back to 80 bucks.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_00: And we're just after 210 central time on July 13.
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, backed off the highs just a little bit in the crude, but still, you know, over a good six bucks in the nearby's there.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_00: Connor, let's let me just take you off script a little bit because you know you mentioned the sort of on again, off again excitement, and then malaise in the crude oil market, and the the headlines really do seem to have been driving the crude oil market there.
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_00: And I I think I think it's it's difficult to get our hands around because the the Trump administration strategy, I think, at the very beginning, and I don't know, I'm purely speaking purely speculatively here, but I think they they thought, well, we'll cut the head off the snake and the regime will fall apart, and that'll be the end of that.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: And Connor, I just sort of feel like we're in a little bit worse position right now in that.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_00: There's no leadership there really for for these groups, you know, and little subgroups and subsets to coalesce around.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_00: Who's calling the shots over there?
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_00: I would argue not a whole lot of people.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_00: Uh certainly no one at at the center of any power structure.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_00: It just kind of feels like they're all they've all kind of gone rogue a little bit.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't know how we deal with that or how we get some certainty in that environment.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_01: And and now given that we had an agreement on in place and and now that's thrown out the thrown out the window and the straight hormouth is closed again.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_01: In terms of of seeing a finish line, or how do we wrap this up given everything we've gone through the past three months?
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_01: I don't see it, Davis.
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_01: It's it's a very murky.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_01: I don't, you know, I just got a headline that said that President Trump's gonna address the nation, I think, at 9 p.m.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_01: eastern time, 8 p.m.
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_01: Central time.
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_01: And so we'll see what he has to say.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_01: But it it doesn't feel now now that we were so we were so close to the finish line to maybe seeing it open, deal in place, and now we're back.
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_01: It feels like we're back to square one, right?
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_01: How do we how do we get back to the finish line?
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_01: I don't have an answer for that one.
• 10:39
  SPEAKER_01: I don't see how we get to it sitting here right right now.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we can weave corn crude oil's influence into the corn market conversation here.
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_00: Friday's report was friendly for corn.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_00: Now there's some heat in the forecast, steamy overnight temperatures, minimal changes to yield in corn at 183-ish in Friday's reports.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_00: Added 5 million bushels to overall production, ending stocks lowered, even old crop stocks came down, and exports are good.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: I uh said in the intro there, it does feel like people are getting a little bit bold up here.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: Just give us a super broad view.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_00: What do you see in this corn market right now?
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, first off, you said crude seguayed into corn.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_01: Can I just say, you know, when this all started, we talk about the correlation between crude oil and corn, right?
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_01: A third of our corn goes in gas tanks.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_01: We didn't see that rally, you know, when crude was a hundred bucks, sure, we had corn getting close to five bucks, but we didn't see that rally.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_01: And so, you know, I just want to say on behalf of a lot of people how frustrated I am that we had this big move in crude oil, and I feel like corn didn't quite follow.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_01: So, but with that, yes, we we finals like you know, the month of June was lower on the month, not a whole lot of excitement, but now we've got a couple things working for us.
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_01: And big one Friday was that USDA report, right?
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_01: They trim ending stocks.
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_01: The feed and residual number was a big jump.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_01: It feels like on these past USDA reports, we can't often say that the big bullish surprise was in the corn market.
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_01: Well, it was on this one, right?
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_01: Not a whole lot of changes on the soybean and wheat front, but we did see corn pull back, and then we had a nice sunny open on, and then along those same lines, there's not a whole lot of precipitate in these forecasts.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_01: Now, I did just see the this it looked kind of wet, but it's been a little bit wetter.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_01: We'll see what the Euro model says in that extended forecast, and then you couple that with some heat, right?
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_01: It's getting the market excited.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_01: I would argue today on the backs of that, we didn't quite have the close that we were looking for, right?
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_01: I got December corn at 463, that's up two cents.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_01: Most of the day we spent, you know, really hovering around that 200 a day average at 466.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_01: A close above that would have felt really nice getting close to 470.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_01: And then if we can go to the next headline or something to get this excited and maybe build some momentum today, you know, I don't know what the future holds, but it I was hoping for a little bit better close given how we open today.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, corn is corn has been a little slow to move.
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_00: I've I've heard talk of kind of a range between 440 and 480 in that December contract.
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_00: Is is weather enough to spook us up to 480?
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_01: If if if the weather, if we get hot and dry forecasts and one that really materializes, weather is absolutely enough to get us over that hump, right?
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_01: But that's a big if.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_01: Now, I don't want to temper you know uh the the bulls that are listening to your show that are getting bulled up because of weather, you know, don't listen to the stat.
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_01: But I want to I saw something that said 12% of corn production is drier than normal the last 30 days.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_01: You know, that's that's on the lower end of range, usually have more that that number's higher.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_01: And and years that we were in this range in that 12 80 81, 98, 2018, 2025, we were all above trend on those years, and so it's hard for me to get super bullish because of weather right now, right?
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_01: But if we see an extended hot and dry forecast and something that pulls the yield down, right, just gets us below trend, gets us below that 183 number, given where we could see demand or where we have demand at, and also I want to throw out there the potential for more gym demand, aka China buying some US corn, right?
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_01: Any type of pullback, we could see some excitement.
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_01: But you know, as of right now, I'm not gonna say that's that's a certainty.
• 14:47
  SPEAKER_01: But to answer your question, yes, any type of big weather uh forecast, if we see the extended dryness, anything that's gonna pull us below trend, it's gonna get the market excited.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_00: And I kind of feel like maybe tell me if I'm wrong on this, but we got we got the the next big check-in with the reports on August 12.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_00: I I feel like unless something major or dramatic happens, we may just see corn in a holding pattern until we get something out of those reports and see what we can squeeze out of there.
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_00: What do you think?
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely.
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_01: It's it we're we're in the time frame where we're very much gonna be watching the weather patterns.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_01: You know, what what's the euro model gonna say?
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know when it comes out.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_01: I know it comes out when market gets close, but I haven't seen it yet.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_01: You know, it's gonna be looking at weather, and then it's gonna be, you know, are we gonna change yield?
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_01: Are we gonna change acres on that August report, right?
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_01: Anything, you know, is there anything that's gonna buck the trend of seasonality, right?
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_01: Seasonal, seasonal say June, July, right, is is gonna be where we see the highs on you know, on average in a given year, August, September, we usually put in some lows.
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_01: What can we do to buck that trend, right?
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_01: As of right now, if everything holds, if we see something that gets us a little bit higher market or even holds us, you know, kind of in the range you were talking about, 440 to 480, that means we would put the low in 2026 in June.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_01: We haven't done that very often in the past 20 years, and so it's shaping up to be an interesting market.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_00: Connor, I pride myself in running a backyard itis approved shop here at Ag Squawk.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_00: I spoke to a farmer in central Iowa.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_00: Actually, the last two weeks I've I've spoken with farmers in central Iowa.
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_00: The one guy said the corn was over his head and he's five foot ten.
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_00: That's two weeks ago going on almost.
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_00: Just give me a backyard corn report from central Illinois, Connor.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_00: What's it look like out there?
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_01: Davis, I don't want to jinx it, but I think it looks we are off to a fantastic start.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_01: You know, you don't have to go too far north of me where I could show you some incredible hail damage, and I know a little bit east of me talks of them being a little wet, but where we're at right now, our planning dates were good, precipitation was good.
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_01: We got close to an inch Saturday.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_01: So we're we're we're good on precipitation.
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_01: I I think we're gonna be just fine.
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_01: But you know, in terms of backyard, if we're just looking out my backyard, we've got potential for some really good crops.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_01: Beans look good as well.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_00: You know, and this this sort of goes to, I mean, I wanted to talk about some of the export data as well.
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_00: Exports for corn have been pretty good.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_00: We just got inspections, I mean, a little bat, a little behind the previous week, but still, you know, about 17% over a year ago on corn inspections, as of the most recent data, that's uh July 9 during that report week.
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_00: It's I've also seen hints that funds are wanting to buy some corn.
• 17:56
  SPEAKER_00: What do you make of the fund activity presently?
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so as of right now, it's it's a very balanced fund position.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_01: We had a a D not not incredible long, but go back to May, right?
• 18:09
  SPEAKER_01: When we were putting in the highs, we had a decent long position.
• 18:12
  SPEAKER_01: We erased that very quickly, and they put on a short position.
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_01: And and so, you know, I'd make the argument it was a little bit earlier than normal.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_01: And now you could say what's a normal year in this business, and I'd agree with you, but they we saw that sell-off come pretty quickly where they were short.
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_01: Now we've had some buy-in on the recent news on whether that USDA report COT data told us you know we've got a pretty even fund position.
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, if we get some bullish news, it it's it's not where you know, let's go back to two where we get some bullish news in July 13th.
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_01: We've already positioned that's massively long.
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_01: Sure, they sell more, but uh you know, eventually we're gonna run out of ammo.
• 18:57
  SPEAKER_01: That's not the case right now.
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_01: We've got a pretty balanced position that if they want to go long, they can they can really send this thing.
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_01: But then having a balanced position, the opposite can be true too.
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_01: We have a lot of room uh below if we get some, you know, if we get some negative news, if this weather materializes, if China decides that they're gonna, you know, kind of step away from buying any US US ag exports, anything like that, right?
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_01: So fun position balanced, we've got ammo to go either way.
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_00: Do you like that 183 number on the estimated yield for corn?
• 19:33
  SPEAKER_01: That's a good question.
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_01: I go back to you give us a range.
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_01: You like a range better?
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I I go back, you know, last year we we blew through trend, right?
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_01: We were three, four, what were we four, four bushel, five bushel above trend last year?
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_01: Before that, we hadn't hit a trend since 2018.
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_01: And so given you know, we're gonna need the weather to change a little bit, I think, for us to see that 183 number.
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_01: Is it is it attainable as I sit right now?
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_01: I think it absolutely is.
• 20:04
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think we're gonna see something, you know.
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not gonna sit here and say it's gonna be a 177, 176, but you know, the previous red takeout last year, the previous record was 179.
• 20:14
  SPEAKER_01: And so, you know, a 183, maybe it's not as maybe it's a healthy pullback from last year.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_01: That's still a big number.
• 20:21
  SPEAKER_01: And I I think everything's gotta go, you know, we're off to a good start.
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_01: We'll see what you know.
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_01: We got to have a good finish to hold that number.
• 20:29
  SPEAKER_01: And so right now, I think you know, we're gonna need some help from Mother Nature to hit that 183, would be my opinion.
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_00: Do you keep an eye at all on the goings on?
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_00: Unfair of me to ask you this.
• 20:39
  SPEAKER_00: I don't, I don't know.
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_00: I'm way out of my depth easily on this topic.
• 20:43
  SPEAKER_00: Ethanol, and in particular, I'm thinking about the Rin market.
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_00: Are you are you familiar at all?
• 20:49
  SPEAKER_01: Uh not bad.
• 20:50
  SPEAKER_01: Don't don't ask me to do you know just just the the deep dives of where ethanol is and everything like that.
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_01: Uh no, no, no.
• 20:57
  SPEAKER_00: Give me but yes, give me RINS 101 in the present day.
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_00: What's is is anything popping up there?
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, ethanol ethanol demand is good.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_01: I can go back to USDA report, we saw ethanol stocks had had a decent drawdown, and so demand is there, I would say.
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_01: You know, when when I'm talking biodiesel, I think the the shining star is going to be soybean oil.
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_01: I know, I know you wanted to focus on corn, but that's the market that continues to, you know, if we want to make the argument that anything is following the crude oil market, that soybean oil market can continues to outperform some of these estimations.
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_01: But so I guess my my high level on ethanol is that demand is good.
• 21:40
  SPEAKER_01: We saw some drawdown on ethanol stocks, and you know, we still got some potential.
• 21:45
  SPEAKER_01: As far as like the headlines on you know, E15 year round, great, we'll take it, but it's not it's not just a this big market move or big change, right?
• 21:55
  SPEAKER_01: We need if if we want some type of policy that gets us maybe over the hump and increases ethanol demand, biodiesel demand, we haven't had that yet, right?
• 22:04
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not saying it couldn't still come, but you know, I'm we we gotta.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_01: Ways to go.
• 22:10
  SPEAKER_00: Well, you weren't just kidding on that soybean oil.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_00: Up I'm just gonna go by percentages here, but up looks like the August up 3.18% on the day.
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_00: Here we go.
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_00: Here's uh we'll call it the septoct and the dece, all of them up right around three percent on the day.
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, you got meal lower, which okay, that that's fine, but but soybeans a pretty muted response considering what what bean oil did today.
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, soy soybean oil continues to be you know the star in the commodity world.
• 22:39
  SPEAKER_01: And you want to talk about a fun position.
• 22:41
  SPEAKER_01: You know, we talked about corn being bound, soybeans, they still have a little long position.
• 22:45
  SPEAKER_01: Soybean oil, you know, they're still in long to getting close to record long territory, right?
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_01: Fun positions very long on soybeans, soybean oil, and it's one of those that they've had a long position on for quite some time, right?
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_01: I I know myself, I've been looking at that, and I've been nervous of you know, a quote unquote a rug pull.
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_01: What's gonna send soybeans and soybean low soybean oil lower, you know, based on fun selling.
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_01: If we can make a headline, maybe you know, June 30th acres came in a little bit higher than we thought.
• 23:17
  SPEAKER_01: And you know, we got to talk about the resiliency in this soybean market.
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_01: It hasn't happened yet, and we continue to see a fun position that that's super long in the soybean oil, soybean oil market.
• 23:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_00: Let's let's exit out of our market conversation.
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_00: But I would I hate the idea of us getting past this part of the show.
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_00: The day is over, you're getting ready to sit down for supper, you know.
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe you're doing stuff at the end of the day and you think, oh, I should have said X, Y, or Z about anything in these markets here.
• 23:55
  SPEAKER_00: What haven't we covered?
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_00: What else would you like to say?
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_00: If anything, Connor.
• 23:59
  SPEAKER_00: It's it's been a very thorough discussion, especially on the corn side.
• 24:03
  SPEAKER_00: But if there's anything else that you want to get in here on these markets, uh, I'm gonna tell you now's the time, please.
• 24:09
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_01: Wow, that's a good yeah, it's it's uh my platform to talk about.
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, I what what I've been telling clients, and I think a conversation needs to be had, is when we look at December corn, we're at 463, we get up to 470, you know, any bushels maybe that aren't needed to cash flow and ones that don't need to be moved in fall, right?
• 24:31
  SPEAKER_01: You're putting them in the bin and they're gonna stay in the bin.
• 24:34
  SPEAKER_01: A 470 future sale, a 470, 465 to 470 HTA.
• 24:41
  SPEAKER_01: We could turn that, you know, just plain, just rolling it out to March, putting in the bin.
• 24:47
  SPEAKER_01: And then if you've got a you know, if you're near an export terminal, if you're lucky enough to be near, you know, one of these ethanol plants where they have a decent basis comp when they get out of fall.
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_01: A 470 hedge could be turned, can have a five in front of it pretty easily.
• 25:02
  SPEAKER_01: And so I think we got to keep that in mind.
• 25:04
  SPEAKER_01: I know it's easy to get bullish, but if we're a little bit behind on sales, let's keep that in mind about what an HTA future sale can do for us, even if maybe it's not near our price target.
• 25:16
  SPEAKER_01: And then along those same lines, look at that D smart spread.
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_01: It's already out to 15 cents.
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_01: Now, it could certainly get a little bit wider, but if you have HTAs on, if you're looking at making that next sale, maybe we should look at just selling some Marsh futures.
• 25:29
  SPEAKER_01: It's it's definitely worth looking at.
• 25:31
  SPEAKER_00: All right, very good.
• 25:33
  SPEAKER_00: Connor Bridgman, agmarket.net.
• 25:35
  SPEAKER_00: Is that the best place to find you for more?
• 25:37
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely.
• 25:38
  SPEAKER_01: Go there.
• 25:39
  SPEAKER_01: It's it our our it's it our website's in the name, it's easy to find.
• 25:43
  SPEAKER_01: Uh but then also I tell anyone I'm in central Illinois.
• 25:46
  SPEAKER_01: If you're within, if you're in my radius, please stop in.
• 25:50
  SPEAKER_01: Come see me.
• 25:51
  SPEAKER_00: Excellent, excellent.
• 25:52
  SPEAKER_00: Connor Bridgeman.
• 25:53
  SPEAKER_00: Before we go, you mentioned you got some uh some rain there, a nice inch over the weekend.
• 25:58
  SPEAKER_00: I'm really glad to hear that.
• 26:00
  SPEAKER_00: Um a little little uh note here.
• 26:03
  SPEAKER_00: Billings, Montana, yesterday hit a record high of 111 degrees Fahrenheit, three degrees above the previous record high.
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_00: It's heating up a little bit here today in Kansas City.
• 26:15
  SPEAKER_00: The humidity's starting to pick up, man.
• 26:17
  SPEAKER_00: We had a beautiful weekend.
• 26:18
  SPEAKER_00: We're outside in the yard, we're doing stuff, we're chilling out.
• 26:22
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 26:22
  SPEAKER_00: It's it's gonna get hot again.
• 26:24
  SPEAKER_00: Not 111 degrees hot like they had in Billings there.
• 26:28
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just curious.
• 26:29
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna put you on the spot here.
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_00: Another unfair question.
• 26:31
  SPEAKER_00: Can you spell Fahrenheit?
• 26:33
  SPEAKER_01: Can I spell Fahrenheit?
• 26:35
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, ready?
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_01: Hit the button.
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_01: If I if I get one word wrong, hit the buzzer because I know I'm gonna do it.
• 26:41
  SPEAKER_01: F-A-R-E-N-H-E-I-T.
• 26:46
  unknown: Come on.
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's right.
• 26:49
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's right.
• 26:50
  SPEAKER_00: I have no idea.
• 26:51
  SPEAKER_00: I have no idea.
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna call that correct.
• 26:53
  SPEAKER_00: Shout out to Connor Bridge for spelling Fahrenheit, everybody.
• 26:56
  SPEAKER_00: That's the new X Fox spelling.
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, man.
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_01: I don't I bet you're you're just being nice.
• 27:02
  SPEAKER_01: I probably got it wrong.
• 27:04
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, my fifth grade my fifth grade English teacher is gonna be ecstatic.
• 27:08
  SPEAKER_00: I had uh so I was writing this out thing, the news about Billings in my my notes here, and I I did my best estimation thinking, oh, the spell check will catch it.
• 27:17
  SPEAKER_00: The spell check couldn't make heads or tails of what I wrote to signify Fahrenheit.
• 27:21
  SPEAKER_00: So I I thought I'd come straight to you and and get the get the true spelling.
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_00: According to the National Weather Service, record setting heat is expected over the next several days from the intermountain west through the northern plains.
• 27:32
  SPEAKER_00: Furthermore, fire weather concerns increase with dry and breezy conditions.
• 27:36
  SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorm threats for the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, uh valleys, the central Appalachians and Southeast today.
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_00: The threat shifts to central Gulf Coast and across central Texas this week.
• 27:52
  SPEAKER_00: Connor, uh, we've had a great conversation.
• 27:55
  SPEAKER_00: Before I let you go, um, can I uh interest you in uh just a few quick items of mild interest?
• 28:02
  SPEAKER_00: Are you in for that?
• 28:03
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 28:04
  SPEAKER_00: Well, this according to Britannica.com.
• 28:08
  SPEAKER_00: On a you unusually cold winter day in 1930, players from Europe and the Americas took the field in Montevideo, Uruguay for the kickoff of the first FIFA World Cup.
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know anything about soccer, I really don't care.
• 28:23
  SPEAKER_00: I want to because the world kansas city hosted the World Cup this year, and the the whole city was just in love with soccer for like a month.
• 28:32
  SPEAKER_00: It just ended this last weekend, and it's been it's been great, but I don't know.
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_00: People love love soccer.
• 28:39
  SPEAKER_00: European teams faced a daunting transatlantic voyage by ship, this back to 1930, and several declined the invitation.
• 28:47
  SPEAKER_00: Egypt, the only African country expected to compete, missed its connecting ship to Uruguay, didn't make the first FIFA World Cup there.
• 28:56
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, French forward Lucienne Laurent, apparently, I think that's how you pronounce that, scored the first goal in World Cup history, reportedly in falling snow.
• 29:05
  SPEAKER_00: The United States defeated Belgium 3-0, beginning a surprising run that would carry the Americans all the way to the semifinals that year.
• 29:12
  SPEAKER_00: That was the U.S.
• 29:14
  SPEAKER_00: men's team's longest World Cup run to date back in 1930.
• 29:19
  SPEAKER_00: Uruguay eventually defeated Argentina 4-2 in the final to become the first World Cup champions.
• 29:26
  SPEAKER_00: And closer to home.
• 29:27
  SPEAKER_00: Are you a Star Wars fan?
• 29:28
  SPEAKER_00: Indiana Jones, Star Wars, anything like that?
• 29:31
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, Star Star, okay.
• 29:33
  SPEAKER_01: I would have been, yes, I would.
• 29:35
  SPEAKER_01: I don't don't ask me in the new stuff, but I was a big Star Wars fan as a kid, right?
• 29:39
  SPEAKER_01: I was probably nine years old when the Phantom Menace came out.
• 29:42
  SPEAKER_01: So this is the height of that, of the second trilogy.
• 29:45
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, that's perfect.
• 29:46
  SPEAKER_00: That's perfect.
• 29:47
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the reason I bring it up closer to home, it's the birthday of actor Harrison Ford, born on this date in 1942.
• 29:55
  SPEAKER_00: You would remember him as Han Solo.
• 29:58
  SPEAKER_00: I've got uh here he is as as Indiana Jones.
• 30:01
  SPEAKER_00: Guillermo, give me full screen here because in honor of Mr.
• 30:04
  SPEAKER_00: Ford's birthday, I'd like to uh perform a brief dramatic excerpt here.
• 30:08
  SPEAKER_00: Put it on put it on me, Guillermo, if you would.
• 30:11
  SPEAKER_00: A brief dramatic excerpt from Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom.
• 30:15
  SPEAKER_00: This is my least favorite Indiana Jones movie, but I'll I'll give you just a little bit.
• 30:19
  SPEAKER_00: Short round, get our stuff.
• 30:22
  SPEAKER_00: Hold on to your potatoes, okay dokie, Dr.
• 30:25
  SPEAKER_00: Jones.
• 30:25
  SPEAKER_00: And that was a brief dramatic excerpt from Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom to celebrate Mr.
• 30:31
  SPEAKER_00: Harrison Ford's birthday, born this day in 1942.
• 30:35
  SPEAKER_00: Connor Bridgman from Agmarket.net.
• 30:38
  SPEAKER_00: You have been uh terrifically informative.
• 30:40
  SPEAKER_00: You've been a good sport.
• 30:41
  SPEAKER_00: Uh we like to fiddle around over here on AgSquat quite a bit, but man, you brought you brought the goods today, and I I sure appreciate the heck out of you, agmarket.com.
• 30:51
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, well, thanks for having me.
• 30:52
  SPEAKER_01: This has been a blast.
• 30:54
  SPEAKER_00: Outstanding.
• 30:55
  SPEAKER_00: I hope maybe sometime we can trick you into coming back and visiting us again.
• 30:59
  SPEAKER_00: We may have to do it under a false name, but uh, I'd love to have you back if you're into it.
• 31:03
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
• 31:04
  SPEAKER_01: And and I will share my vacation schedule with everyone if you want some time where's a good time to be selling grain.
• 31:10
  SPEAKER_01: Unfortunately, I don't have any other I don't have any other vacations planned in 2026, but again, if I need to plan one, I will do it for your listeners.
• 31:19
  SPEAKER_00: Wow, that's inside information.
• 31:21
  SPEAKER_00: That's terrific.
• 31:21
  SPEAKER_00: That's terrific.
• 31:22
  SPEAKER_00: Well, may I direct you quickly, beloved viewer, to agbull.com.
• 31:25
  SPEAKER_00: You can dig deeper with AgBull Intel, take the markets by the horns with Ag Bull.
• 31:29
  SPEAKER_00: Visit Agbull.com or call 855737 Farm for the details.
• 31:35
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for watching, everybody.
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_00: I will see you tomorrow.
• 31:37
  SPEAKER_00: My guest will be Rachel Fishback, and I think we'll have we'll have Jed back first thing tomorrow morning.
• 31:43
  SPEAKER_00: AgSquawk, thanks for being here so long, y'all.