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WEEK ONE College Football Best Bets!! · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

0:03
All right. Welcome everybody to Targeting
0:05
Winners. It's our Week 1 preview with our
0:08
picks for the first official week, I guess week that's, you
0:11
know, actual big time games coming in here today.
0:15
Darren up in New York, how are you?
0:17
Good man, how's it going? Not bad.
0:20
Peter the Yooper, almost. How's it up there?
0:27
Pete heard. Pete's frozen or he can't hear
0:30
you. One or the other.
0:31
Either that or he can't. Hear I'm back knocking, hear you
0:32
and I think it was frozen for a second.
0:34
But good to see you all. I'm excited to be here.
0:36
Do they have you up there on the Upper Peninsula?
0:38
Is that the? Yeah, it's it's like there's
0:41
there's a pigeon that you have to fly back and forth in poles.
0:43
It works sometimes. Right, all right, so we're gonna
0:47
go jump right into our week one picture and look back at week
0:50
zero. First, let's pull up our little
0:53
graphic up here. Darren, take us through it.
0:57
All right, so, yeah, just to get a good quick recap of what we
1:01
have going for tonight and tomorrow before we get into
1:03
Saturday. So, yeah, quick recap.
1:06
Kansas State screwed us, which, Tim, I'm sorry, you should have
1:10
known you're going to lose that one once.
1:11
I bet it as well. But the Week 0 schneid has come
1:16
to a screeching halt. Thank you.
1:17
Jalen Daniels. Yes, well played.
1:23
Yeah. I mean, I said the new OC was
1:24
going to make a difference. And Daniel's only went out and
1:27
completed 90% of his passes and three touchdowns.
1:29
So it's nice to be right for a change.
1:30
So thank you, Kansas. A new streak has begun.
1:33
I do have one to add for tonight.
1:35
I'll get into that shortly. But for tomorrow, I do have
1:38
Baylor on the money line over Auburn and I do have San Jose
1:42
State. I got 11 1/2.
1:43
That has gone up to 13 or 13 1/2 in some places.
1:48
It wouldn't go any higher than 13 1/2 if you're if you're still
1:51
looking to back the Spartans there.
1:53
I did add a game the other night.
1:56
I was looking at Nebraska and Cincinnati.
1:58
The game being played at Arrowhead.
2:01
Bet MGM really quickly went to +7.
2:04
I jumped on that. So I do have the Bearcats
2:06
tonight +7 that is still available at Bet Rivers from the
2:09
looks of it and Bali. I think if you have access to
2:12
Bali where you are, yes. Rivers and Bali still showing 7.
2:19
I mean, I just think people are sleeping a little bit on
2:21
Cincinnati and especially their offense.
2:23
Brendan Sorsby is not a bad QB. They got a couple of good
2:26
running backs, including a transfer from Wisconsin who had
2:28
over 100 yards and 10 TDs last year.
2:32
I think Dylan Riola will improve.
2:34
But what worries me the most about Nebraska is they play a
2:37
335. That front 6 is all gone.
2:39
I mean there's no starter coming back from that group.
2:41
So I'm hoping between Sorsby and, and his dual threat
2:44
capability, he did lead the Bearcats in rushing touchdowns
2:47
last year. So I'm hoping between him and
2:49
the 2 running backs, they can kind of, yeah, keep Nebraska on
2:52
the field a little bit longer than they want to be.
2:55
I just think 7's too much here. So yeah, nothing.
2:59
I know it's probably going to be all Nebraska fans because it's
3:01
in Kansas City now, but just don't totally trust Nebraska at
3:06
this point. So I, I, I took it because it
3:09
did hit 7. So I do have that to go with
3:12
mine. And Pete, you still got you got
3:14
one kicking off shortly, one later on and 1:00 tomorrow as
3:16
well. Yes, Sir, Auburn, Baylor, under
3:19
57 1/2 coming up soon. But right now starting, well,
3:23
three minutes ago, NC State and East Carolina kicking off right
3:26
now. So we'll be keeping an eye on it
3:27
while we're here today looking at the under 59 1/2.
3:30
So I don't expect to see a ton of scoring early.
3:32
We'll see how that goes. And then I have Wisconsin, Miami
3:36
of Ohio over 39 1/2. I mean, if you want the full
3:39
analysis, go back to our Week 0 show.
3:42
But as I noted there, right, that 39 1/2 is pretty low for a
3:45
modern, modern college game. So, you know, I'm probably
3:48
getting suckered into that thing, but I'm I'm going for it.
3:50
So I'm in on the over. I think it actually went up.
3:53
I think you're on the, you got a good number there.
3:56
I think some places at like 40 1/2 or even 41 now.
3:59
So nice call there. I'm watching the game here, so
4:03
if we get a lot of scoring I'll I'll break in here.
4:05
So unless you hear from me about this game, the better for the
4:07
rest of the show. Hopefully I don't say anything
4:10
about it. I don't want to hear a word
4:11
about it, right? Leave it alone.
4:14
All right, let's go in. Let's just jump right into our
4:17
first picks here. All right, well, we're going to
4:20
start with one of mine here. We've got UTSA Roadrunners
4:25
travelling to take on my bet for the national champions this
4:28
year. So obviously I think here the
4:31
line is 24 1/2. I actually got it at 21 1/2.
4:35
I would still bet the 24 1/2. Anyway, I think this is going to
4:39
be a tough order for the Roadrunners.
4:42
They lost so much on defense. Texas A&M has that running game.
4:46
I think they can just run them down.
4:47
Even their backups are going to be are going to be pretty angry
4:52
and getting some good yardage here as well.
4:56
Marcel Reed is to be his big announcement.
4:58
Hopefully if they can't cover this.
5:00
I don't feel very good about all my Texas A&M bets that I made a
5:04
couple weeks ago. I don't know if you guys have
5:06
any thoughts on it, but I have 20 -, 21 1/2 spread did go up to
5:11
24 1/2. I still even if I was 24, I'd
5:15
probably still bet it. So if you can get it, we also on
5:17
the bottom. If you're watching us on
5:19
YouTube, thank you. We have all the other sites.
5:22
We have DraftKings, Baileys or valleys rather rivers, whole
5:30
bunch of other ones that I can't even imagine.
5:32
Yeah, I'm looking at it right now.
5:34
Looks like you can still get under 20 forged out.
5:38
Everywhere, yeah. FanDuel in 2021 so.
5:41
Yeah, Caesar's 23 1/2, DraftKings 23 1/2.
5:45
ESPN bet looks like they're 22 1/2.
5:48
So yeah, you got definitely got a good number, but yeah, there's
5:51
still less than 20 fours out there for anybody who wants to
5:54
back you. Yeah.
5:56
So we'll be putting these lines out.
5:57
So if you happen to see one in on one of the platforms that you
5:59
use, feel free to jump on it. We'll give you as much
6:02
information as we can as we move forward.
6:06
Georgia Southern Pete, if this is one of yours.
6:10
It is indeed one of mine. So over under is 51 1/2.
6:16
So you know my thoughts. I mean, I think, you know, there
6:18
there injury wise is pretty pretty, you know, pretty minor,
6:22
which is good. I I think we're going to see a
6:24
pretty pass heavy approach on both sides here, which would not
6:28
surprise me. So I think we're going to have
6:30
high tempo. There's going to be some scoring
6:33
all of that. So, you know, this is one of the
6:35
kind of Contra picks I talked about last week in the week
6:38
zero. I like I like unders early, but
6:42
this is one of the contras to me.
6:43
I think there's going to be scoring.
6:44
I think it's going to be scoring quite a bit.
6:46
So I like the over at 51 1/2 on this game simply because I think
6:51
there's going to be a lot of movement of the ball.
6:52
So that's my thoughts on on this game.
6:54
But I do like the over 51 1/2. Yep, this was the one that I
6:59
looked at. I don't know Darren, if it's
7:00
this one, quite a year old at all.
7:02
I didn't really take a good look at it, but I do think Fresno
7:06
State having a game under their their belt, even though they
7:09
they did not look great. You know, their first drive they
7:13
looked really good. I'm here bashing EJ Warner and
7:16
that he's a turnover machine. And meanwhile he's going 5 for
7:18
five and leading the team to a touchdown right off the bat.
7:22
But then he reverted to the EJ Warner we all know and love.
7:28
But I think Kansas's defense certainly played a little bit
7:30
better than I thought they would.
7:33
They had some secondary issues and and after that first drive,
7:35
he really wasn't able to take take advantage of that.
7:37
But I'm expecting an improved performance here against George
7:41
Southern. Georgia Southern should be able
7:43
to put up some points as well. I mean, they're, they're
7:45
probably a second betting choice to win the Sunbelt East.
7:49
So yeah, I can see lots of points.
7:51
I, I, I look for, I look for, for the stage to maybe run the
7:53
ball a little bit more. I thought Donaldson would get
7:55
more than 11 carries last week. He did not.
7:57
So I expect a nice Little Mix. I think they're going to see EJ
8:01
Warner and his went through 2 picks and a lost fumble last
8:04
week. You might see a little more
8:07
running here, but I'm not sure how I feel about George Southern
8:10
defensively. So yeah, I like where Pete said
8:13
that on that one. All right.
8:18
Nope. Nope.
8:19
Thought I froze up there for a second.
8:20
Boys, we're good. Game of the Week.
8:22
Ah, here we go game. Of the week.
8:25
But if that's you, the week is spelled WEAK.
8:28
But you know we got Alabama taking on America's team in
8:32
Tallahassee. Pi believe this is another one
8:34
of your bets. It is.
8:37
And then this is another over for me.
8:39
I mean, I, I mean, last year Florida State's defense was
8:43
abhorrent, to put it nicely. I don't think they're going to
8:48
be any better and I don't think they're going to fare very well.
8:51
Even if they are a little better, playing against Alabama
8:54
is going to be a problem for them.
8:57
So, you know, FSU's chance of actually doing anything is to
9:00
score because they're going to need to score because Bama is
9:03
going to score. I, I, I think that's what we're
9:05
going to see. I, I don't FSU is definitely
9:08
missing some key players on both sides.
9:10
I think it's a problem. You know, honestly, I think
9:12
Alabama's going to romp here. I, I, I would not expect this
9:15
game to be close. I expect them to score a lot.
9:17
I do expect Florida State to score a bit as well, right.
9:20
So I like the over here at 50 1/2.
9:22
I think it's a pretty safe bet either way on this.
9:27
So So yeah, I'm going to be watching this game.
9:29
I'm excited. I'm actually kind of excited to
9:31
watch this game to see if Florida State got any better
9:33
because last year was kind of painful to watch.
9:35
So those are my thoughts. You'd hope they get better.
9:39
I mean I. Mean I've been blissfully
9:47
ignoring Florida State in the offseason because, you know, we
9:49
won the offseason last year and look where it got us.
9:51
So I know I looked at the depth chart, you know, they got a
9:56
couple of the kids that I like that stayed actually come back.
9:58
They got the the Jackson kid that they wouldn't let play a
10:01
couple years ago. He's back.
10:03
They got a couple new freshmen. Everyone's really high on didn't
10:06
even take the time to learn the names or numbers at this point.
10:08
They're going to have to show me something before I even go
10:13
anywhere near a betting line on this.
10:15
You know, Castellano was talking smack earlier, I guess, a few
10:18
weeks ago to Alabama. That always works out well.
10:22
So, yeah, So we'll see what happens with this game.
10:25
You know, I got a bottle of Jim Beam ready, so you should.
10:30
Probably not. Watch.
10:33
Keep your cell phones on. I'll be texting you guys
10:35
throughout the game, I'm sure. And that's all I got on this
10:38
one. Darren, how about you?
10:41
You know, went back and forth on it from a from a side point of
10:45
view, I, I, I couldn't come up with nothing.
10:49
I mean, like Florida State cannot possibly be any worse
10:52
there there there's certainly an improvement at the quarterback
10:54
position with Castellanos and and Alabama's throwing out Ty
10:59
Simpson. Who the hell knows what what
11:01
you're going to get from him. Like the new OC higher, somebody
11:05
who's worked with head coach Ken Devore in the past.
11:08
Whether that translates to a lot of points in game one remains to
11:11
be seen. So you know, what's weird is I
11:15
was looking at my picks before I came in the room and usually I'm
11:17
kind of anti betting on teams that have unproven quarterbacks.
11:21
All three of my picks I'm about to give out, I'm betting on
11:23
unproven quarterbacks. So, so much for that theory.
11:27
But yeah, I, I, I went back and forth.
11:30
I got nothing here. I hope for your sake, Tim,
11:32
Florida State looks better. You know, I hope for Pete's
11:37
sake, Alabama puts up a 50 burger.
11:40
Yeah, I think it's going to happen.
11:41
So I. I I have no no lean or bet on
11:46
this game whatsoever. Yeah, we got a little message
11:48
from Danny Dimes saying RIPFSU here in the chat.
11:52
So he's not wrong. He likes the car that on looks
11:54
like he's probably not. Wrong.
11:56
And Mr. Fahrenheit's back, he's. Did we have any plays with Boise
11:59
State coming up? He's.
12:02
No. He's no wondering if fashion
12:05
gente was more important than a lot of people thought.
12:07
So I. Saw they they ran 3 quarterbacks
12:10
on the first drive and only one of them looked like he knew what
12:13
he was doing so that's not. Good.
12:15
Yeah, we all expected a downgrade at that position, but
12:19
this, this might be more of an epic downgrade than than we
12:22
thought. OK, well, hold on.
12:25
We've got. Let me see.
12:31
Oh, second and goal. Looks like Fresno is driving, so
12:34
we'll have to keep. We'll keep you posted.
12:38
That's the NC State, yeah, NC State back that up.
12:41
We don't. We don't want.
12:42
Any Oh, that's right, NC State. I'm I'm watching this on ESPN,
12:45
so they I'm. Watching the Jim Beam
12:47
preemptively. So it's, yeah.
12:51
Oh, another big game. Pete's Team Michigan.
12:55
Oh God. Yeah, All right.
12:58
Yeah. So I laid the 34 1/2 here with
13:02
Michigan. And again, I know I just said I
13:04
don't like betting on unproven quarterbacks, but my God, he
13:07
can't be worse than whatever the hell Michigan threw out there in
13:10
the quarterback position last. Year, Hey, we had a quarterback
13:12
last year. Well, technically on the roster,
13:15
you had multiple people that had the QB next to their name on the
13:19
depth chart, whether they were actual quarterbacks.
13:22
I mean, we all saw Alex Orgy fumbling the ball constantly at
13:25
UNLV last week. So we we all know how that
13:27
worked out. But I'm just going to say this,
13:30
this rest of this team is still epic in all position groups.
13:34
They're still going to run the ball.
13:35
They still have an awesome offensive line.
13:37
They lost what they lose Graham and God drawn a blank on the
13:42
other guy's name, Kenneth Grant on the frontline.
13:45
But they they've got those guys replaced in the portal.
13:47
Linebackers are deep, secondary may be a minor concern, but I
13:51
love that Rod Moore is back after missing all last year with
13:53
an injury. And look, team is going to pass
13:56
the ball more than we think. And the reason I say that is,
14:00
listen, first of all, I don't think New Mexico is scoring if
14:03
they are maybe a field goal. But I mean, that tells me that
14:07
Michigan really has to get to 38 to cover this line.
14:10
And I know that a lot of times we say, oh, well, then they're
14:12
going to look ahead. They're not going to show a lot.
14:14
They're going to Oklahoma next week.
14:16
Listen, that's not a conference game when you were as bad
14:18
offensively, at least from a passing standpoint as Michigan
14:21
was. You are going to go out there
14:23
and you are going to put up points every chance you get.
14:26
And if it gets to the point that OK, you've got a big lead and
14:28
Bryce Underwood sits. Mikey Keane's got a little
14:30
something to prove after coming over from Fresno State as well.
14:33
I don't think they're going to have him turn around and hand
14:34
the ball off 3 times. And even if they do, they still
14:37
might score before those 3 plays are up.
14:38
So I am looking for, and again, you know, New Mexico, awful
14:42
defense, doesn't look like it's going to be any better.
14:45
They lost Devin Dampier, so I don't know how the hell this
14:47
team's going to even score any points against this defense,
14:49
which is probably a top five defense right now and probably
14:53
will be a top five defense by the end of the year.
14:55
So I look for this offense to get right pretty damn quick.
14:59
This is the perfect opponent for Michigan to remember what it's
15:02
like to score in the 40s. You know what, I'm going to
15:05
predict A50 burger here. I'm going to say Michigan is
15:07
going to roll, but I'm going with the, I mean, this kid's a
15:15
five star. He's got to be good at passing
15:17
the ball. So he's going to get a great
15:18
chance because if we learned anything from New Mexico's
15:21
defense, you can pass on them. So just a one unit play,
15:25
Michigan laying the 34 1/2 and I believe that number is still
15:29
readily available. Let me do a quick scan because I
15:33
forgot to bring that up while I was looking.
15:36
Yeah, 30 fours and 1/2 all across the board, 35 at bat
15:40
Rivers, but everything else, 34 1/2 DraftKings even only has -1
15:44
O 8. So yeah, let's do it, baby.
15:48
Michigan 50 Burger. Mark it down, Pete.
15:51
I know. Yeah.
15:52
I mean, you can just tell me if I'm crazy or if I'm wrong.
15:55
I just think this team's going to score.
15:57
They have to show that they can score because if you go to
15:59
Oklahoma and play in that stadium with against that
16:02
defense, you cannot show them that you cannot put up points
16:06
and not pass the ball. I, I, I, I agree this is a true
16:11
freshman quarterback in his first game.
16:13
So listen, I every, I've watched so many videos and read so much
16:18
about, about him and everything I've read is just like he is
16:24
truly a specimen standing out everything about him that's
16:28
great. He is still a true freshman
16:31
starting his first game. We have no idea what it's going
16:34
to be like for him to get chased by pass rushers in college.
16:39
Now, that said, to your point, the defense stinks on their side
16:42
of the ball, right? So I don't expect a whole lot of
16:45
that. So it's a great game for him to
16:47
get his feet wet. Man, A50 spot.
16:50
I don't know. I mean, that'd be great.
16:51
But yeah, they're going to win the game.
16:53
They're going to win by at least, you know, two or three
16:56
touchdowns. I I couldn't touch this thing
16:58
because it's too much of an unknown.
17:01
But for me, I, I don't, I don't dislike the bad.
17:03
I mean, I think that's everything I hear.
17:04
That's what should happen. I just don't trust it until I
17:08
see it. So as as a fan, that's all I
17:10
could do. So that's my thoughts.
17:12
Got to keep Misses Ellison happy.
17:13
They better win. She got a quarterback.
17:18
Field goal. That's good.
17:19
So it's 3. Yeah, they just lined up for the
17:20
field goal. Excellent.
17:23
So only three. I threw out more field goals,
17:25
less touchdowns for that game. Beautiful.
17:26
That's what I want to see. Hi, Darren.
17:30
I think this is one of yours as well.
17:31
We're gonna stick with you with. You.
17:33
This one I was actually set on backing a returning quarterback
17:38
here. However, if you guys are all
17:39
familiar with another five star prospect, Malachi Nelson, who
17:43
started at USC, then went to Boise State, then went to UTEP.
17:46
He beat out last year's starter Skyler Locklear, and last week
17:50
was given the starting QB job for UTEP.
17:52
So they're getting 6 here. Listen, we, we all loved Utah
17:59
State. They were like the arena ball
18:01
team of the NCAA. They scored a lot of they
18:03
averaged 32 points a game over 460 yards.
18:07
The defense actually gave up more points in that and more
18:10
yards in that per game. So Bronco Mendenhall just left
18:14
his team like late December to take over.
18:17
Where the hell did he go? New Mexico team we just talked
18:21
about or No, not New Mexico. Where did he go?
18:24
No, he went to hear from New Mexico.
18:26
That's right. So he all right.
18:27
So he is the new head coach here, but he really has not.
18:31
I mean, in his other stops, he he's had some pieces to build
18:34
around. He doesn't really have that
18:36
here, especially defensively. He still has the old Utah
18:40
quarterback. What's he?
18:41
They call him the pig farmer, I believe.
18:43
Yes, Sir. Yeah.
18:45
So I mean, that helps, but again, you know, we talk about
18:50
defenses being really bad and not having a whole lot of people
18:53
come back. This defense only has three
18:55
starters. So you think, well, maybe they
18:56
can improve, but they, they kept the same defensive coordinator.
18:59
So you're just gonna have another terrible defense just
19:02
with different guys because you kept the coordinator.
19:05
I, you know, I, I have no idea, but Malagai Nelson, you know,
19:10
much like when a horse drops in class, they improve.
19:13
You know, he couldn't cut it at USC, got limited work at Boise.
19:16
Maybe being down here he's going to go off and show us why he's
19:21
the five star prospect. I don't hate what UTEP is
19:24
bringing back offensively. They got that Charlotte transfer
19:28
running back as Sean Wilson. He had over 6 yards carry last
19:30
year. Top 2 wide receivers are back as
19:32
well. So Nelson is going to have some
19:34
experienced targets to throw to and the defense actually has a
19:38
lot of experience coming back and they've got a new defensive
19:41
coordinator who had a top 15 defense in the FCS at Montana
19:44
State last year. So whether that transfers to
19:47
this level, I guess we're going to find out.
19:50
But this this game opened at 3 1/2 and got up to 5 1/2 and six
19:54
in some places. I I thought maybe it would drop
19:57
when Nelson got the starting gig.
19:59
It didn't budget. So I'm going to take UTEP with
20:02
the six points here. I do also have a win total bet
20:06
on them over 5 1/2. That's a plus money.
20:09
I wasn't initially sure that this was going to be one of
20:11
their wins, but maybe with the upgrading quarterback and a bad
20:16
defense on the other side they they can get this done.
20:18
But I expect them to keep it within the six.
20:20
So I got another unit on UTEP +6.
20:23
All right, well, we had Danny Dimes getting on FSUA little bit
20:27
got Mr. Parent. I didn't hear with a little.
20:30
Yeah, if you're at the Cowboys fan good news today, everyone's
20:37
favorite general manager. Yes.
20:40
And I just make a comment as a Cowboy fan and I know this is
20:43
completely irrelevant for the show.
20:45
You guys know I've been anti Jerry Jones for for quite some
20:48
time long time now. Two things.
20:50
I mean you got a couple of first round draft picks.
20:52
OK that's fine. Better than getting nothing.
20:54
But I think the trade still sucks yes, but it's not like
20:59
their defense was any good last year with him.
21:01
So why overpay DAC and this guy you know now?
21:06
Green Bay picks are probably going to be late first round,
21:08
which doesn't really help, but I'll be rooting against Green
21:11
Bay for the foreseeable future. That is fair, That is very fair.
21:16
You know, but yeah, I not, I would rather they trade and get
21:20
something then not be able to resign him.
21:23
That amount of money is insane, but good for Parsons.
21:27
Good for him. Yeah, but it's not like the
21:28
defense was getting us to the Super Bowl.
21:31
That's that's what it means. They're rebuild so bad.
21:34
They really need a rebuild. They need an actual the
21:37
ownership they right, they need an actual general general
21:40
manager and they need to rebuild because that both sides of the
21:42
ball are just bad. I mean that just that's not
21:44
good. I mean, offensively they should
21:46
be okay, but the problem is they still won't stop anybody.
21:49
Yeah, but the quarterback sucks. I mean, at the end of the day,
21:51
he's always going to choke. Well, he's great in the regular
21:53
season, but thankfully he won't get a chance to choke in the
21:55
playoffs because they're not going.
21:57
Yeah, exactly. So their first round pick for
22:00
the next two years should be really good.
22:02
Hopefully Green Bay will have a crappier either this year or
22:04
next year and they'll get another decent pick.
22:06
But fantastic, yeah, if you get a really good pick because you
22:09
suck, that's one thing. But if you get a good pick
22:10
because somebody else sucks, that's.
22:12
Even better. I mean, Green Bay.
22:14
If Green Bay misses the playoffs, then okay, you can say
22:16
all right, well, that's a good deal because they'll be picking
22:18
twice in the top half of the draft.
22:20
But we'll see. Whatever I hate.
22:23
Jared Well, Danny Dine, he chimed in again.
22:25
He loves to trade for 'cause I guess he's a, he's a Giants fan,
22:29
so we'll figure out. Well then he understands bad
22:31
front offices and terrible draft.
22:33
At least the Cowboys have decent draft picks.
22:35
But, you know, they just don't, you know, screw it up all the
22:38
time anyway. Let me come in.
22:41
Gonna come into the last one of my picks for this week.
22:44
He got LSU and Clemson when I looked at this game.
22:47
I know Clemson obviously has, I would say more talent, even
22:53
though it's, you know, with a team like LSU, you know, you're
22:56
kind of splitting hairs there. I for me, it came down to the
22:59
coaches and this is kind of like the James Franklin ball.
23:02
I don't really like either of these two coaches outside the
23:05
lines. Like I've always said, outside
23:07
the lines, outside the stadium. Dabo Sweeney is one of the best
23:12
inside the lines with the way some of the decisions he makes
23:15
and stuff. I'm just not entirely sure on.
23:20
Brian Kelly's not much better, but I think he is a little bit
23:22
better. So with this, I got the plus 150
23:27
I believe, and I took LSU money line on the road.
23:32
You know, I get an SEC team, you know, let's see if all the hype
23:37
is what it is here 'cause this supposed to be.
23:39
A lot of people are picking Clemson as a dark horse for a
23:41
championship. So yeah, I just went ahead.
23:45
I just took LSU with the money line.
23:47
I think they'll win the game outright and I will yield you
23:51
guys for questions, comments, insults, etcetera.
23:56
What you got for me? Yeah, I mean, I, I, I looked at
24:02
the game, I, I, I didn't touch it.
24:04
I think it's going to be fun as hell to watch.
24:06
But I I really, to your point with the coaches, right, So
24:09
we've got basically James Franklin the second on one side
24:14
and we got another guy who can't seem to be consistent or keep
24:18
his shit together on the other side.
24:21
Yeah. I don't know what to expect.
24:22
I think it's going to be fun as how to watch, but I I absolutely
24:25
have no idea what to expect out of this game.
24:27
I couldn't even flip a coin for me.
24:28
I don't know who's going to win this game.
24:29
I literally no idea. So I think it'll be fun, but I
24:33
have nothing more than that. Any thoughts Aaron?
24:38
Much like Pete, I took a look at this game in hopes to have a
24:42
pick here for one of these three top 10 matchups.
24:47
I, I, I came up with nothing like one one day I would look at
24:50
and be like, wow, the LS us defense should be really
24:52
improved. You know, Clemson still has to
24:55
show me that they can stop the run because they, you know, in
24:57
their losses last year, they got torched on the ground.
25:01
Then I'm thinking OK well Clemson brought in the OC or the
25:04
OC the DC from oh God where the hell did he come from?
25:10
Now I'm drawing a blank on him too to fix that.
25:13
So now it's like OK well is their defense improved?
25:15
I don't know. I love Nussmeyer but
25:18
unfortunately I like Klubnik as well.
25:21
But yeah, Tim, I don't know if you remember our very first
25:24
show, we did a national championship preview back in
25:26
2023 and we're like, yeah, let's each put out a long shot and I
25:29
bet on Clemson to win the national championship.
25:31
They were like +2000 and they went out and lost to Duke week
25:35
1. So I've been very anti Clemson
25:36
ever since show #1 So between that, the fact that you have LSU
25:42
money line and the fact that Pete has Clemson under their win
25:45
total as a future bet I. AM.
25:48
Double interest here. Yeah, triple.
25:50
I am totally purple and yellow this week.
25:52
I will be rooting as a fan for the credibility of the show and
25:57
my anti Clemson stance. And yeah, go well, I can't say
26:02
go Tigers. Aren't they both the tigers?
26:03
Yeah, go go purple and yellow. Both purple.
26:06
And yellow, yes. Well, Danny Dimes likes my pick,
26:08
he chimed in again. He thinks that's a great pick,
26:10
so we'll. That's because I believe he's
26:11
got Nussmeyer winning the Heisman, right?
26:14
Yeah, I think he's he's got, he's got his interests.
26:17
He knows why he's agreed. Right, getting down to it, Cal
26:22
and Oregon State. Peter, this is yours, I believe.
26:26
Yeah. It it is mine.
26:27
So over under 50 1/2. As we talked about back in the
26:32
conference previews. I think Cal is hot garbage.
26:37
I don't think either one of these offenses is going to be
26:39
very explosive. I think they're going to both be
26:41
very methodical in what they do. There are some injury issues on
26:46
the Oregon State side which I think will slow them down as
26:49
well. So I think that this is
26:51
definitely not going to be a shootout.
26:53
This is going to be a grind. And at that 50 1/2 number, it
26:57
that it fits, it fits the grind, right?
26:59
Being under that makes a lot of sense to me.
27:01
I could see something like, I don't know, 2024 to 24 to 20 or
27:06
something like that. Would not surprise me.
27:08
It's not going to be a very exciting game.
27:10
I'm not going to watch it other than watching the score because
27:13
I have 0 interest in this game from a from a viewer
27:16
perspective. But from the betting
27:17
perspective, I think it screams under all day long.
27:20
So I'm putting 1 unit on the under 50 1/2.
27:24
Aaron, any thoughts? I agree with the Cal Trainwreck
27:28
sentiment. Yeah, apparently from from what
27:33
I've read it, it's it's just really bad there.
27:35
I don't and and I I have not dug into Oregon State enough to to
27:41
form it. I I didn't even look at this
27:43
game honestly, but I just remember our ACC preview.
27:45
Cal bad, Cal bad. That's it.
27:49
That's all I got. I think was Cal bad move on to
27:52
the next team. Crush totals last year.
27:54
Whatever he says and involves. Cal.
27:57
Cal Bad, Yeah, I'm on board. We got one more pick.
28:03
Here we go. Oh boy.
28:09
Here we go, I'll. Go because this is my pick.
28:12
So, so we, we, we had a little fun with this game this week.
28:16
So we've talked Notre Dame multiple times in the offseason
28:21
leading up to to the regular season here.
28:23
And, and Pete and I, I've mentioned this game a couple
28:26
times and we kind of both agree that Notre Dame really could
28:31
roll here. And I get the spread sitting at
28:35
2 1/2 because of the quarterback.
28:37
Well, we know it's CJ Carr. How's he gonna perform on the
28:40
road? His first game hasn't thrown a
28:42
pass. All right, that's cool.
28:44
Every position group around him is excellent.
28:48
All right, you've got 2:00. You got possibly one of the best
28:52
RB duos in the country with Jeremiah Love and Jadarian
28:56
Price. The receivers which nobody knew
28:58
last year all of a sudden looks really good with with great
29:01
house coming out of nowhere in the in the playoff games.
29:06
You got a couple of transfers that came over Will Pauling from
29:09
Wisconsin, Malachi Fields from Virginia.
29:11
Jordan Faison is still there. So this receiving group went
29:14
from being non existent to actually really, really deep.
29:18
And the offensive line is is one of the best offensive lines in
29:21
the country. So he's going to have a lot of
29:24
help around him. Now that being said, the other
29:28
side of the ball defensively, Miami did not have a a great
29:32
defense, especially in the secondary.
29:34
However, they brought in a ton of transfers.
29:36
They have a new defensive coordinator who came over from
29:38
Minnesota. I expect that unit to be better,
29:42
but Notre Dame's defense is, yeah, they lost a couple of
29:45
their stars to the NFL, but this is still an incredibly deep
29:48
group. You got to remember they had so
29:50
many injuries last year, so all these guys that are filling in
29:53
now have had tons of game experience on both sides of the
29:55
ball. So I still think Notre Dame is
29:58
going to have a top five defense this year when it's all said and
30:00
done. You look at Miami offensively,
30:03
they are not going to be the Miami that they were last year,
30:06
OK? All their skill players left.
30:07
Cam Ward's gone. Damian Martinez is gone.
30:10
Xavier Restrepo, Isaiah Horton, all those receivers gone online,
30:15
excellent. They brought in a ton of talent
30:17
on the online. I think that's going to be their
30:19
strongest position group overall.
30:22
But I mean, Carson Beck is not Cam Ward.
30:26
OK, he had for him an off year last year, Georgia led the
30:30
nation in drops. That certainly didn't help his
30:32
stats. But now he was injured, he
30:34
missed some time. So he he didn't get a full
30:37
offseason of practice with all these new receivers.
30:40
We don't know how good these new receivers are or if he's got
30:43
any. Yeah, I was getting to that.
30:48
Jeff, thank you for that comment.
30:50
But yeah, I, I mean, Mark Fletcher's going to be their
30:53
running backs. I don't know what to expect from
30:55
this team offensively. I don't even know if I trust
31:00
Carson Beck more than I trust CJ Carr, to be honest with you.
31:03
From, from what I've seen, at least I know CJ Carr is healthy
31:06
going in. I don't know what to expect from
31:07
Beck, but I think what's going to happen is they're going to
31:13
load up the box because they know Notre Dame's going to try
31:16
and run the ball to start with. So CJ Carr, those first couple
31:19
of drives, he's going to have to hit some passes.
31:22
And if he does, this is going to get ugly because Miami is not
31:24
going to know what's coming. So I went and and yeah, Jeff
31:29
brought up the the coaching. Yeah, I would trust Marcus
31:32
Freeman more than most coaches. Then I would trust most coaches
31:35
over Mario Cristobal. So we know there's always a game
31:39
where the Hurricanes crystal ball themselves.
31:42
Usually it's much later on in a much more key moment in season.
31:47
But I just think Notre Dame is a much deeper team than they were
31:50
last year. And this team got to the
31:51
national championship last year. And I I, I know there's some
31:54
Miami people out there that are like, oh, well, Notre Dame, they
31:56
play in Indiana now. They got to go to Florida in,
32:00
you know, early September and it's going to be hot.
32:02
We know what else was hot Texas A&M when Notre Dame went down
32:05
there in Week 1 and who collapsed in the fourth quarter.
32:08
Yeah, it was the Texas A&M defense.
32:10
It wasn't Notre Dame. So don't give me this weather,
32:12
it's humid bullshit, because that obviously does not affect
32:15
Notre Dame either. So I had a little fun here.
32:18
I didn't want to lay the 2 1/2 at -110 so I played a little
32:23
alternate line. Here.
32:24
I'm laying 6 1/2 at a nice plus 171 on DraftKings.
32:30
Love it. I I think that this could be A2
32:33
touchdown win for the Irish here.
32:34
I think top to bottom they're the better team.
32:37
If CJ Carr can just hit like 60% of his passes, this this could
32:41
get ugly for Miami. So give me the Irish 6 1/2
32:44
alternate 9 ultimate line lice. Nice.
32:47
Plus Price fighting. Marcus Freeman's are going to
32:50
roll Sunday night. They aren't getting all
32:52
scientific. I'm telling you, I'm just trying
32:55
to anybody that wants to come in the comments and say, well,
32:57
Miami has hot weather. Yeah, I, I, I don't care.
33:00
So that's. The alternative lines Darren
33:04
degrasse tracing over here it's. Like once the week 0 curse
33:07
ended. I mean, I'm just out of control.
33:09
He's out, Pete, any thoughts on this game?
33:16
I could not agree more. I think Notre Dame and Michigan
33:18
are in very similar situations right now with a new quarterback
33:21
starting out, right. So it's that that's the question
33:23
marks around the quarterbacks in both teams.
33:24
Outside of that, the teams around those quarterbacks are
33:27
excellent. I think Notre Dame is a light
33:30
years better team than Miami on both sides of the ball.
33:34
So to be clear to our listeners and viewers, the only thing I'm
33:37
betting on looking at this year, like last year are over unders.
33:40
I'm not betting anything else, but I would lay those points all
33:45
day long. I agree with Darren 100%.
33:48
I think Notre Dame is going to pound them.
33:51
I think it could get ugly later in that game.
33:53
I don't think Miami has the offense to respond to what Notre
33:57
Dame will do, especially against that Notre Dame defense.
34:00
I think Carson Beck is going to be running for his life.
34:02
I don't know if he's going to make it through the game because
34:04
he's already potentially injured, so that could be a
34:06
problem. I think this is going to be a
34:08
really ugly game for Miami. So I I could not agree more.
34:12
I think it's a great bet. I love the alternative line.
34:15
I would lay that that I would lay those points too.
34:17
That's that's an awesome bet. This is one of the two or three
34:21
teams that would have me rooting for Notre Dame.
34:23
So yeah, go Notre Dame, go Irish # them.
34:26
I hope that comes true. You know, cannot go there.
34:32
So let's head on to our RPO segment.
34:35
First game, we got Texas. And who are they playing, Pete?
34:39
I forget who they're playing. Some team, I don't know, They,
34:42
they, they, they're, I don't know, they're savages.
34:44
They, they live in Ohio, I think.
34:46
I don't know, yes. Plus 1 1/2.
34:49
What do you guys think about this one?
34:52
I mean depends. What day you ask us?
34:55
That is fair. I mean honestly, I there is
34:59
nothing that I would love more to watch Arch take that team
35:03
into the shoe and pummel those disgusting things, right?
35:10
I would love to see that. I don't have confidence that
35:15
will happen though. So much for when they go low,
35:18
you go high I guess. Yeah, I don't know, but I just
35:22
don't. I think it's going to be a very
35:25
good game. I think it's going to.
35:26
I actually think it's going to turn into a defensive game.
35:29
That's, that's my perspective. So I think, you know, the, the
35:31
under was a little interesting to me, but I can't, I can't
35:33
touch this thing. I, I can't wait to watch it.
35:37
I, I, I want to see, I mean, I talked about it a couple weeks
35:41
ago. I talked about it.
35:42
No, I did not last week, but a couple weeks ago.
35:44
What concerned me about Texas was Sark's inability to to to
35:52
restructure what he was doing. You know, when he when he was,
35:55
when they were not doing well against Georgia twice, he could
35:59
not find a way around that concerned me, right?
36:01
But now he's had a whole flipping offseason, a plan for
36:04
this thing, right? So if he can't make that offense
36:07
with that man work against this team, then that that's
36:11
concerning to me. So thinks it'd be a great game.
36:13
I could go either way honestly, But I would love to see Texas
36:17
just rail them I think. Sarkeesia is for me is like
36:20
James Franklin Light, like he's not quite that bad, but I still
36:25
haven't seen too many what I would consider great coaching
36:28
jobs. Like you look at the game and be
36:30
like Sarkeesia really coached his ass off there.
36:33
So I don't know Darren. Any thoughts on this one?
36:35
Well, to to echo to Pete's concerns about sarc.
36:39
I mean, I I brought up before, you know, the national semi
36:42
final, you're down seven. Yeah, first and goal at the one.
36:45
You don't run a single play with Arch Manning.
36:47
I mean, come on, That's that's a no brainer right there.
36:50
I mean, I'm a fucking moron and I would have put Arch Manning in
36:53
at least two of those plays because he probably would have
36:55
scored by then from a yard out. But.
36:57
Anyway. And you know, I I the slightest
37:01
lean, I mean like the slightest lean.
37:04
I would lean Texas here. I just one I can't trust Brian
37:11
Hartline to call plays. He was an offense coordinator 2
37:13
years ago, but he was not calling plays in 2023.
37:15
This is his first chance to call some plays.
37:17
And don't get us started on Matt Patricia taking over the
37:21
defense. Ohio State a defense that has to
37:23
replace 8 starters. Yeah, the the man that Belichick
37:30
made, that's done nothing since he hasn't worked with Belichick.
37:33
Like 90 years he hasn't had a decent.
37:35
Defense, I, I live in Michigan to, to watch him with the Lions
37:38
and how pathetic that team. I mean, it was awful.
37:42
I mean, this man should not be coaching.
37:44
So I agree. I I I want to be arch light that
37:47
defense on. Like I said, the slightest lean
37:49
to Texas, but then again, if you told me well, Ohio State's got
37:52
the best offensive and defensive player in all of football, I
37:55
would agree with you. A. 100% I'd argue with that.
37:58
And that and these are the thoughts that made me change my
38:01
mind, I think for seven days in a row, but as soon as today and
38:05
you're asking me slight lean to Texas, but I I would not bet
38:09
this with either of your guys. Yeah, absolutely.
38:12
Just with your alternate line. Awesome.
38:16
Has me thinking maybe explore an alternate line with Texas -1 1/2
38:20
and see what the what kind. Of you don't ever want to go
38:23
through 0, Tim. Yeah, that's tough.
38:25
On the other side of that zero is a really tough dig.
38:28
I don't know. Hey by the way, sidebar 3 to
38:31
nothing still at the end of the first.
38:32
Quarter. Nice.
38:32
I was just going to talk at it. How is it?
38:38
Mississippi. State Southern Miss Darren,
38:41
let's start with you. What you got?
38:43
I'm not really sure how a team that finished dead last in the
38:47
SEC, the two touchdown favorite over Marshall version 2 point O
38:51
here. That just seems kind of high.
38:54
God, yeah. You know what?
38:59
I would, I would take Southern Miss here, even though I was
39:03
looking at my sheet earlier. My sheet would tell me to bet on
39:05
Mississippi State, but then I can't trust them.
39:10
No, Yeah, No, I would. I would.
39:12
I don't know if I would run to the window, I might casually
39:15
stroll with a beverage in one hand and a little bit of money
39:18
in the other hand. But if you get 13 1/2 still,
39:22
yeah, I I would take a shot on Southern Miss.
39:25
I like Marshall version 2.0. Peter.
39:30
Yeah, I toyed with the over, but it's a big number, right, 60
39:32
1/2. I mean, I think it's going to be
39:33
scoring. So it's just that that number to
39:36
me is just a little, it was it, it was not the number I wanted
39:39
to see. I do think there's going to be a
39:41
lot of scoring, but to me, that's a little high.
39:43
And I to Terence Point, I don't necessarily trust what
39:46
Mississippi, Mississippi State's going to do.
39:48
I think they'll probably win the game, but I I'm not quite sure
39:52
what we're going to see out of them.
39:53
So I stayed away. Yeah, as much as I love Crom and
39:57
Oak and Fluff over there in Mississippi now, yeah, this is 1
40:02
I want to stay away from. So we'll just move on to
40:04
Northwestern at Tulane. Peter, any thoughts?
40:08
I mean, plus 6IN Northwestern, that's seems low, I think.
40:13
I think. Northwestern's horrible.
40:15
Yeah, Northwestern's horrible. I mean, typical Northwestern.
40:18
They're going to run the ball, they're going to do what they're
40:20
going to do. You know, over unders 45 1/2.
40:23
I toyed with it. I actually was leaning under a
40:26
bit. I thought that number's a little
40:29
low. And so I didn't, I mean, if it
40:31
was like 47 and a half, 48, I would definitely have played the
40:37
under at that 45 1/2. It's getting a little close to
40:40
the the barrier for me. So, you know, I think it's, it's
40:44
not going to be an interesting game.
40:46
Honestly, I don't want to watch it.
40:49
Don't love that number, but I do think it's going to be a low
40:51
scoring game. So those are my thoughts.
40:53
Aaron. To piggyback on that thought, I
40:57
agree with the low scoring game, but Northwestern plus six
40:59
actually it looks looks somewhat appealing here.
41:02
When we had talked about that, remember they got Preston Stone
41:05
as their QB now. So if he's 100% healthy, I
41:08
expect him to look somewhat like the 2023 version of Preston
41:11
Stone. And I think defensively they
41:13
will get better because now they actually have some semblance of
41:15
an offense. I know Pete and I were very anti
41:18
Tulane when we did our American preview.
41:20
They just lost too much. I don't know why they're one of
41:23
the favorites to win the conference.
41:24
I don't think they're even going to be in the game.
41:27
But again, you know, public looks at their home favorites if
41:31
you hold out till till Saturday or is this a Friday game or is
41:34
this a Saturday game? I don't even remember.
41:36
It is a Saturday game, I think. Is that a Saturday?
41:39
I would hold out, see if you can get 6 1/2 or maybe even 7, but
41:43
Northwestern intrigues me here. And here's the game we talked
41:47
about a couple times during our conference previews, Toledo and
41:51
Kentucky. Toledo getting 9 1/2 at
41:54
Kentucky. This was one we were all think
41:56
all three of us were leaning Toledo.
41:58
I think we I'm thinking about running through the window with
42:00
this one, taking the 9 1/2 with Toledo.
42:03
I don't know about you guys. Yeah, I, I, I'd walk slowly to
42:07
the window because when we first looked at this game, it was 10.
42:10
It, it went all the way down to 7 1/2 and now it's slowly
42:13
working its way back up. Yeah, if you take your time
42:16
getting to the window on game day, you could get 10.
42:19
I would feel more comfortable if that line got back to 10.
42:23
If it does get to 10, yeah, then then it begins sprinting and
42:29
take that, take that 10 with Toledo.
42:30
Actually, while you're while Pete's talking.
42:31
I'm going to see if that's 10 anywhere.
42:34
You know what you got? Yeah, interesting.
42:35
Right. So you know, so I'm only doing
42:39
over unders, right, 47 1/2. I was leaning under that aside,
42:43
right. I agree what Tim said.
42:45
I this is going to be interesting.
42:48
I actually think I'm not betting it, but I actually think Toledo
42:52
has an opportunity to win this game outright.
42:55
Now, will they go in there and do it?
42:56
I don't know. But I do think they're the right
43:00
type of team the the way they play that could go in there and
43:04
win this game outright. So the money line is intriguing.
43:08
I'm going to keep an eye on it as we get closer just because I,
43:13
I, I'd like this Toledo team and and I think it could be pretty
43:18
interesting. So I've done nothing so far, but
43:21
I think they're, I mean, with 10, I would take that all day.
43:25
Even, you know, what are we 9 1/2?
43:27
Definitely. I mean, I think I, I would take
43:29
the points once again, not betting it, but I would take the
43:31
points. But honestly, the money line
43:33
intrigues me here. So hey Pete, I'm giving his
43:36
thoughts. Check FanDuel because This site
43:38
is telling me that Fanduel's got a 10 1/2 and a lot of other
43:42
books have 10 I don't. I know sometimes mine and yours
43:45
FanDuel have different but I'm seeing a lot of 10s now.
43:48
Yeah, let me take a. Look, maybe there maybe there
43:50
are some 10s out there, but if you can get to I, I'm very down
43:54
on Kentucky. They're new starters.
43:56
Zach Calzada don't don't really like him a lot either.
44:01
This is this is ripe for an upset man.
44:03
This is. I'm telling this is.
44:04
Right. Oh, and I'm looking right now.
44:07
Give me a second. If Toledo gets this, we looked
44:10
at their schedule there. There's an undefeated
44:11
possibility if they can somehow pull this off.
44:14
I know. That schedule's pretty
44:15
interesting. So I mean that that's intriguing
44:18
to me. I can't.
44:19
I want to watch that game. So I'm very intrigued by that.
44:20
Hold on, let me see. While you're checking that,
44:23
we'll move on. We got Marshall at Georgia,
44:26
Darren, Georgia given 39 1/2 I got here.
44:28
Yeah, I tried to find some games for this segment and the problem
44:32
in week 1 is there's a lot of good teams playing not so good
44:36
teams and there there's a lot of spreads that are insane.
44:38
Like you see this little 4 game run that we're about to talk
44:40
about. You know, I I read summer Kirby
44:44
Smart really doesn't run it up early on, you know, first couple
44:48
weeks of the season just they kind of just like figure some
44:50
things out and I think was Stockton that that trend could
44:54
actually hold here. Of course, the flip side of that
44:58
is they could they could put up 50 by accident, not even trying,
45:01
but 39 1/2 seems high. I would hold my nose and hope
45:07
that somehow Marshall can get in the end zone and, you know,
45:12
maybe this ends up like 41 to 7 and they cover.
45:16
But I, I would, I would not run to bet Marshall.
45:21
But Kirby usually doesn't usually doesn't rub it in like
45:25
our next coach that we're going to talk about likes to do so.
45:30
I mean, if you really want to hold your nose and vomit a
45:33
handful of times for over the course of 3 1/2 hours, yeah,
45:36
take a shower. Marshall.
45:37
The hell. By the way, to your to your
45:39
question, Toledo's getting 10 1/2 right now on FanDuel.
45:42
That is such a juicy, beautiful man.
45:48
That's a lot of points. I love that.
45:49
Bro if you add that drop it in the comments after the video.
45:52
So I'll probably add that I mean, I don't what I said I
45:56
promised I'm only going to bet over under.
45:57
So that's whatever. But but that is a juicy.
46:01
Number that's crazy. And what's the next game we got?
46:05
Oh, our favorite coach, Penn State and Nevada.
46:10
I'll I'll let you guys start. What you guys got, We go with
46:14
Pete. I mean, Penn State better win
46:18
this game and they, they better win this game pretty handily,
46:21
right at, at the end of the day, I, I, I mean, was it, is that 44
46:26
1/2? That is 44 1/2, yes.
46:29
Sir, I mean the over under, I mean 7 1/2 so that they still
46:32
stay in. Nevada's going to do absolutely
46:34
nothing. But their offense is abhorrent,
46:36
so that's not surprising. Penn State's defense is
46:39
suffocating, so that's not surprising.
46:42
So this is kind of similar, like you were talking about Michigan,
46:45
right? So, you know, maybe Nevada can
46:47
tweak, you know, squeak out three points.
46:49
Penn State's probably going to score 50 or something and just
46:52
pound the living hell out of them.
46:53
So, yeah, I mean, I don't think there's any question what the
46:57
outcome's going to be on this thing.
46:58
It's just a matter of, you know, what does James do?
47:00
Does he, does he pull back the throttle?
47:02
And so that's what, like numbers like this, 57 1/2 over under.
47:06
The reason I won't touch it is because you never know what's,
47:09
especially early in the season, you know, they get up by 30
47:12
points or something. He's going to pull back the
47:14
throttle. He's not going to put it, He's
47:15
not going to endanger his players.
47:17
So to me, that's an under because if they get up, because
47:20
Nevada's not going to score shit, right?
47:22
And they're not going to do anything.
47:23
So it's all in Penn State's hands.
47:25
And so, I mean, the under is intriguing simply because I
47:28
think James will pull back. So that's my thought on that
47:31
game. Anything else, Pete or Darren,
47:34
or we'll move on. No, I wouldn't touch this game.
47:36
Please carry on. Missouri St. at USC, they're
47:41
getting 35 and a halfs, slightly less than about us getting at
47:44
Penn State. Darren, any thoughts with this
47:47
one? Yeah.
47:48
US CS going to going to roll here.
47:51
Yeah, this this is going to be I'm I'm not betting it because
47:54
like Pete had mentioned with Penn State, USC gets up a ton
47:59
game Ivia sits a lot of other skilled positions sit.
48:02
Who knows what Missouri State can do.
48:04
You know, and they're they're one of the unknowns coming in
48:06
from the FCS. Who knows if they're going to
48:08
surprise and get maybe 14 points here.
48:11
But you know, USC is is probably going to put up 50 here.
48:16
So I would take USCI mean maybe I would see maybe you can get 35
48:20
even. But yeah, I could see a six
48:24
touchdown win here for USC pretty easy all.
48:27
Right, we got the see Georgia State and home.
48:30
Miss Peter, let's start with you on this one.
48:34
Georgia State getting 35 and a. Half yeah.
48:37
I mean, I barely looked at it. I mean, this wasn't even hitting
48:40
my radar so much. I fully expect that old miss
48:43
will will will beat them pretty handily and see the whole thing
48:47
with these big with these non conference early season games
48:49
with these big, big lines, man, they're tough.
48:53
They're tough to bat right, because it's hard.
48:55
Once again, you don't know who, how how long people are going to
48:58
stay in what's going to go on. You know, it's it's just tough,
49:02
right? And it makes these over.
49:03
I mean, I tend when, especially when these numbers are bigger
49:05
with the over unders. I tend to love the unders
49:08
because at at least for the most part, any coach who's thinking
49:11
about the whole season, which they largely are, are going to
49:14
kind of start to ramp it back and rest some players and just
49:17
do the right thing. And so the, but then again, if a
49:20
team is so much better than the other team, the second team
49:22
guy's going to beat the crap out of their team too.
49:24
So it's, it's hard to, it's hard to vet that.
49:27
So I, I just, with these big lines, I just try to stay away.
49:31
And I, I did not like the over under number.
49:33
So I've got nothing on this one. I'm kind of betting with the
49:36
coach. I'm really leaning Ole Miss.
49:37
I just think Lane Kiffin, if he could drop 50 on somebody, he's
49:40
going to do it. Put up a lot of points last year
49:43
off, you know, obviously he had the quarterback, but yeah, I
49:48
maybe casually stolen if you don't trip on anything, get up
49:51
to the window and I've laid a 35 1/2 at all miss.
49:55
I think they I think they covered pretty easily.
49:57
Good God, N Canada, NC State scored two touchdowns already in
50:00
the second quarter. So they're trying, they're
50:02
trying real hard to screw me here.
50:05
We're not going to have that. So all right, continue.
50:07
All right, let's keep going before P has a heart attack
50:09
here. We got Hawaii at Arizona getting
50:11
17 1/2, Darren. And I, I tried to keep an eye on
50:18
the Hawaii Stanford game on the YouTube TV multi view.
50:21
And my God, how far back did these two teams set football?
50:27
I mean, Hawaii's quarterback actually looked legit.
50:31
I had some concerns, especially that first drive where it's the
50:36
ball in the end zone, gets sacked, fumble, Stanford gets a
50:39
touchdown. But to his credit, he gutted it
50:41
out, led the team to win, but he could barely walk in the
50:46
second-half. So I have to assume that if he
50:49
even plays, he's not 100%. Yeah.
50:53
And I'm glad for Pete because I know he's got over 5 1/2.
50:56
So that Stanford win was huge. Because I think this is this is
50:59
AL. Because I think if he's not
51:01
healthy, why would you put him out there?
51:05
You know, just let Arizona roll, let your quarterback get healthy
51:10
and get ready for next week, whoever you got.
51:12
But yeah, I I think this one, this one, this one looks bad for
51:15
Hawaii. I would take Arizona here.
51:17
Yeah, all. Right, we got Utah -5 1/2 at
51:20
UCLA. A pretty interesting line.
51:23
Peter, what do you got on this one?
51:25
Hold on. I want to.
51:25
I want to talk about Hawaii for one second.
51:27
So yeah, I mean no. You're getting wow, they're not
51:30
things you. Arizona, Arizona's going to
51:32
roll. There's there's no question
51:34
about that. But I did say last week, Hawaii
51:37
at home is dangerous. Now, Stanford is hot garbage.
51:40
It didn't matter at the end of the day, right?
51:43
I don't care who Hawaii plays at home.
51:46
It's dangerous, right? So you don't want to go there.
51:49
And so I was not surprised at all with what they did last
51:52
week. And and, and kudos to the
51:53
quarterback for dragging his ass through that thing because he
51:56
really, really did drag that team to a victory.
51:59
And that was pretty, pretty cool to see.
52:01
So that that's enough. That one Hawaii on the road,
52:03
totally different story. They're going to get pumped,
52:05
right? So it doesn't doesn't matter.
52:07
And just to disagree with Pete's point, you don't want to go
52:09
there. You do want to go there, but
52:10
just not to play football. That's right.
52:13
Right. A great vacation there, you
52:15
know. I would love to go there, but
52:17
not to play football. You know, if your team goes
52:19
there and that's the week you tweak A hammy or something and
52:21
you can't play so you sit around on the beach or something, that
52:23
sounds just terrible, right? I would go for.
52:25
That time to go. Right, Right, All right.
52:28
Utah, UCLA. Darren.
52:31
I thought they were going to start with Pete, but yeah, I'm,
52:33
I'm, I'm excited. I, I hope this game's on TV
52:35
because you got Devin Dampier against Nico.
52:38
Nico, I'm a leave in Tennessee. This should be fun, man.
52:42
I, I, I wouldn't touch this game because I, I don't know who
52:47
Nico's going to throw to and I don't know how Devin Dampier is
52:50
going to do, You know, stepping up against the Big 10 defense.
52:54
That was actually not too bad last year, but yeah, I'm I would
52:58
love to watch this one like stand alone have nothing else
53:02
on. So I would love to see how these
53:03
two Q BS play here with with their new schools.
53:06
I I'm really looking for this is this is a game I'm not betting
53:08
on, but it's probably the one game I'm not betting on.
53:10
I'm looking the most forward to actually watching.
53:12
So I'm excited to watch this game and see how these two guys
53:15
look. Peter.
53:17
Yeah, over under, 51 1/2. I didn't bet it, but I was, I
53:20
was leaning, leaning under. I, I, I do like the under.
53:24
To Darren's point, who's he going to throw the ball to?
53:25
I don't know. I think it's going to be a lower
53:27
scoring game than we had originally think.
53:30
If you're just looking at these two teams, I think it's going to
53:32
be a fun game. I agree with Darren, it's going
53:33
to be fun to watch, but I do think it's going to be a lower
53:35
score. So you know, that 51 1/2, I'm
53:37
leaning in the under. I didn't play it, but I would I
53:41
would consider it at some point here.
53:43
But regardless, I think it will be a really interesting game to
53:47
watch. So those are my thoughts.
53:48
And we got Virginia Tech getting 7 1/2 at South Carolina.
53:52
For me, it's a heavy lean at with South Carolina here.
53:57
Darren, what are you thinking here?
53:59
Well, let's all congratulate Rachel Faison, who after 47
54:02
years of waiting to hear from the NCAA, has been granted
54:06
eligibility to play for South Carolina.
54:08
So their running game takes a huge step in the right
54:11
direction. I think Virginia Tech's head
54:15
coach is getting fired before the year's over.
54:17
I can't trust Kyron drones. So stay healthy.
54:20
Their best running backs on the Jaguars now.
54:24
Yeah, I agree with you, Tim. I, I know South Carolina lost a
54:26
crap ton on the defense. It it might not matter against
54:29
the Hokies here. So exit Sandman.
54:32
Give me, give me South Carolina. And finally, TCU going up the
54:38
Chapel, Bill Peter, they're getting 3 1/2 or they're giving
54:41
3 1/2, rather sorry, giving 3 1/2 at North Carolina.
54:45
Given 3 1/2 and trying to find the over under on this hold on,
54:48
I got to find it my big list of games here.
54:50
Where am I? I don't.
54:55
Know I can't find the damn number right now.
54:57
Whatever. I mean, I looked at it briefly.
54:58
I I mean I can't find it. It was not on my higher
55:01
confidence list. So I have a higher I just a
55:03
little back scene, right? What I do for all these over
55:05
unders is I rank them all confidence up to level 5 S 1:00
55:08
to 5:00. So if I'd if it's not at least a
55:11
three or a four, I'd barely even look at it.
55:13
So this is one of those that was like a 2.
55:15
So I didn't I didn't really look at it.
55:17
So I have not much to add here. I do I my first future bet back
55:22
in December was North Carolina over their win total of 7 1/2.
55:25
This is one of the games I figured that they would lose.
55:28
I like TCU a lot better here. I know, Tim, your boy Gio Lopez
55:32
was named the starter the other day.
55:34
Obviously that helps immeasurably, don't get me
55:37
wrong. But I'd still take, yeah,
55:40
exactly. Still take Josh Hoover over him
55:44
until otherwise I wouldn't touch this line.
55:48
I if I had thought that, you know, if I looked at it back
55:52
with North Carolina was a 2 1/2 point favorite a couple months
55:55
ago, I would have been all over TCU.
55:56
But but shame on me for not even getting close to the best number
56:01
if you had to pick. I mean, I know this is Labor
56:03
Day. It's a stand alone game on
56:04
Monday night. It's the the week 1 Hawaii game
56:07
where everybody who's losing is going to try and bail here and
56:10
and Jake losses on this game. Please don't be, you know, have
56:15
a losing record going into this case.
56:16
I would not. I had to make them I'm.
56:21
Here in North Carolina, I think it'd be one of those things
56:23
where you know, you know, do a football, I can see they win and
56:27
the hype train, then it's all. I mean, The thing is, nobody has
56:31
any idea what North Carolina is going to look like.
56:33
Nobody has a clue. And if they tell you they do
56:35
that, then they're fooled because I looked at this team a
56:39
lot before I made this futures bet and I still have no idea
56:42
what the hell they're going to look like.
56:43
But until it gets to four, if I had to make a pick, I would lean
56:47
TCU here. I I think they're going to win
56:49
this one. All right, let's start to wrap
56:51
this up. I'm going to go over my bets
56:53
first. I've got Texas A and M -, 21 1/2
56:57
over UTSA and I've got LSU money line over Clemson.
57:03
Pete, what you looking at? Well.
57:05
I'm looking at the game right now that's going on, which is NC
57:07
State and East Carolina. It's 17 to nothing right now.
57:09
I've got the under 59 1/2. It'd be great if East Carolina
57:12
could actually punt the ball a little farther after they keep 3
57:15
and outing. So I don't know where this is
57:17
going, but I think we're still in pretty good shape there.
57:20
Wisconsin, Miami of Ohio, over 39 1/2.
57:23
As I mentioned before, that number is really low.
57:26
Auburn, Baylor, going to be a fun game.
57:28
I'm looking forward to watching that game.
57:29
Under 57 1/2. Alabama, FSU over 50 1/2,
57:34
largely because Alabama's going to score and FSU's defense is
57:37
hot garbage. Cal and Oregon State, under 50
57:41
1/2. I mean, Cal is just bad
57:43
everywhere. Just bad and Oregon State's got
57:46
some injuries. So I don't think they're going
57:48
to like light it up like I would maybe expect them to otherwise.
57:51
So I like that under there. And then Georgia Southern Fresno
57:55
stay over 51 1/2, Darren. Late AD for me on Tuesday night.
58:02
I got +7 with Cincinnati over Nebraska in the neutral site
58:05
game. That kicks off in about an hour
58:07
or so. I, you know, last week I gave
58:10
out Baylor on the money line over Auburn.
58:12
Little bit of plus money there. San Jose State, I lay at 11 1/2.
58:16
That's up to 13 1/2. I wouldn't go any farther than
58:18
that. If he gets to 14, just stay
58:19
away. But I'd feel comfortable laying
58:22
up to 13 1/2 there against a very questionable Central
58:25
Michigan offense. And then for my plays for the
58:27
weekend, give me the fighting Malachi and Elsons and UTEP with
58:31
the six points over Utah State. Michigan coming out party for
58:35
the passing game, baby. They are going to cover 34 1/2
58:38
against New Mexico and now the fighting Marcus Freeman's little
58:42
fun bet for to wrap up Labor Day weekend, little alternate line
58:47
DraftKings. If you choose 6 1/2, you can get
58:49
a nice plus 171 there. So that is my bets for the
58:54
weekend. And guys, if you're using
58:55
FanDuel, DraftKings, whatever, there are a lot of profit boost
58:58
coming out for these big games. Usually they limit you to 10 or
59:01
20 bucks, but you can get some 50% profit boots on like Texas,
59:05
Ohio State, LSU, Clemson. So check your apps, take
59:09
advantage of that. Even though the bets are a
59:11
little bit limited, you can get get some nice payouts if your
59:14
bet hits. All right, well, that's going to
59:17
wrap up our show for this week. We're looking forward to Week 1.
59:21
Thank you all for watching. Don't forget to like and
59:23
subscribe to the channel. It's free.
59:26
It helps us out and we really appreciate it.
59:29
Thank you all for watching and we will catch you next week.