Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - It’s Over for the Stock Market: Trump JUST Flipped + Stock Market News 11 August 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - It’s Over for the Stock Market: Trump JUST Flipped + Stock Market News 11 August 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump just shocked the markets.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Albert just told me all about it.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: I thought I'd share it with you.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Break it down for you Nvidia and AMD and I'll share my screen with you here are going to pay the United States government 15% of their revenue.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: This is a most unusual arrangement.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: It's a tax on turnover, not on profits, because companies can wriggle out of those ones, right.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: But 15% of revenue is pretty significant and it's the first time ever that we have seen the US government make essentially a private tax slash tariff deal with companies.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: So NVIDIA and AMD are the ones paying.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Be interesting to see what everybody else is doing in that space, because obviously there are still competitors that are not NVIDIA and AMD.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: Presumably, they're also going to have to pay, and this is in exchange for being able to sell to China, as Trump says.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: So you're going to explore that.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: How's the market going to react to that?
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Now, before we do, I want to give you something really, really high value, which is there are some tremendous opportunities right now.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: There are some stocks out there that are insanely heavily shorted.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: What does it mean if a stock's shorted very much?
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Well, you tend to, provided there's some positive news, get these massive explosives rallies.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: So I thought I'd give you the whole list of the most shorted stocks out there at phoenixfriendsorg slash short.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: I'll put the link down below in the description as well.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: And what does that look like?
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: It looks like this, so you will literally see what are you watching out for One second.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: You're looking at the short interest percentage here, how much of the float is shorted, and this means the hedges the hedge funds are really really aggressively shorting these stocks.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: So worth looking at.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: You're then going to want to look at the stock chart and I'll run you through one of those examples just in a moment, after we look at the key news here.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: But, felix Rensselaer, short is where you get yourself that spreadsheet.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: It's completely free.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: It's part of our mission to make good stuff happens for people.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Obviously, don't just blindly buy those companies, right?
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Don't be a Muppet.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: You need to understand how this actually works and all that kind of good stuff.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: But what's the issue with this?
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Well, okay, so you get more.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Tax.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Revenue is always good.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: The united states needs lots of that.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: But it also creates a weird regulatory system where, well, we have the government stepping in.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: You know, a bit like a communist sort of overlord, if you, if you know what I'm saying, right, because it's very unusual, like you're like I'm a car, I'm a car, you know, I want to sell my product to this country and then the government says, yeah, you can, but you got to give us 15 of all your sales receipts.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: And, because it's very unusual, I want to sell my product to this country and then the government says, yeah, you can, but you've got to give us 15% of all your sales receipts.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: And you're like, that's a pretty high, freaking tax, right?
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: So a very, very unusual one.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: And it should unsettle the market slightly, because it is a level that we hadn't seen before.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: How he's going to pay the 15%.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Well, that's going to be an interesting question.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: If there is no competition, then the customers will have to pay it in China, but if there are alternatives to NVIDIA and AMD, then NVIDIA and AMD are going to have to pay it, which means shareholders have to pay it.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Right, you and me, our margins will go lower.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Well, the NVIDIA margins will go lower and we're going to have to deal with that of tariffs are paid by US companies.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: So so far, tariffs are largely a tax on US companies and therefore on shells.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: Right, we don't like it.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: We don't like it when there's less profits, right.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: So that's something to bear in mind.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Now, if you haven't downloaded the shorted list yet, obviously do.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: But there is more, there is more.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: The government is really flipping everything upside down for us, which creates some called M2, which is money.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: Well, if you see this crazy chart here, the government's printing more and more and more and more money and it completely lost its.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Well, it just lost it, really, here in COVID, it just went straight up, right, and then they said, oh, it's okay, we're going to shred some money.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: So they shredded almost nothing, and now they've printed more than they'd ever printed before.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: So the amount of money is going up.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: Now, what does that mean?
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: It means two things.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: So you have more money.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: The cats are destroying my studio here, aren't they?
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: You see them back in the background there Naughty, naughty kittens there are lots of them around and terrible kittens.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: So more money does two things.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: It creates, generally speaking, more inflation.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Prices get higher.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Your wages are worth less, yes, but it also increases asset prices.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Now, what are assets?
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Well, it's stuff like stocks, it's stuff like real estate and any other asset out there.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: And therefore, what happens?
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Well, the rich get a lot richer and the poor and I'm sorry to say it, in the poor I must include anybody on a salary.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I know, harsh right, the salaried poor.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: They get poorer because your salary isn't going up by the same percentage.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: You're not getting 10% pay rises every year, which is probably what you need, at the very least, to keep up the stuff.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: So it creates an unfair world.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Now you can complain about it, you can moan about it.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Are you going to change it?
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Probably not, why not?
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Well, the guys with money run the world.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: That's just the way it is.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: So what can you do?
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: You can focus on having more assets, focus on being better at owning stocks and real estate and everything else.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: That's going to keep going up.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: So it's a tremendous wealth building opportunity for those who have and it's a real freaking kick in the groin for those who have not.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: Wealth building opportunity for those who have, and it's a real freaking kick in the groin for those who have not.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: So all you can say to the have not is become the people who have, and it's hard to start, but the first sort of $100,000 is the hardest.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: It's a Charlie Munger quote, isn't it?
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: It is.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Actually, I think his is.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: The first million is a bitch.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: I think that's what he said.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: After that it's much easier, which is also true.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: But yeah, the first 100k, the first million, is the hardest.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: After that, life becomes a heck of a lot easier.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: So what are the opportunities here?
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Well, can you see this on the chart?
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Here there's a blue line and a green line, and I've got to take my glasses off because it's just cruel For someone who wears yellow glasses who put blue and green lines together.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: It's just cruel.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: Blue and green lines together.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: It's just cruel.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: And, by the way, does that make sense to you?
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: What I just explained about money?
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Does that make sense to you?
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Why these blooming kittens keep kicking my camera?
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Stop kicking the camera, guys.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: What is it with you?
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: What is it with you lot?
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: See, caught one.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: Who are you?
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: You're Tabitha, very naughty.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: This one Very naughty.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: All right, go back to your naughty friends.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Try not to chew the wires.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: They do chew the wires.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: So I'm still sort of in the corner on the screen here.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: I'm like where am I here?
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: I am so Bitcoin in blue on here is moving.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: That's Blue's Bitcoin.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Now, if you thought I was being rough with that kitten.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: She's now crawling over my desk.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: And then, in this area is M2, which is money, right, m2 money.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: You can see that they move together right.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: So we've seen M2 front run Bitcoin tremendously here, which would imply that Bitcoin should go up, give or take 10%, seeing a tremendous rally in Ethereum as well at the moment.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: That's one that's fun to be part of as well.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: So this naughty kitten is back.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Are you nibbling on my ankles?
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: I think she's nibbling on my ankles.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Why would you do that?
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Why would you do that?
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: So there we go.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: Does that make some sense to you?
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Does that give you some value?
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Does that tell you what to do?
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: No, it doesn't tell you what to do.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Well, it gives you some ideas, though, and the other thing that we're watching and that's why I'm giving you the shorted list here is I'm looking for the most shorted stocks, for the most shorted stocks, or, generally speaking, the rubbish.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: What do you call rubbish in the US?
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: Waste, right?
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: Something like that?
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: She's now drinking my water Water all around us so the rubbish might have a chance to float again.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: So we get some rate cuts going in the second half of this year.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: The money keeps printing.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: We're going to get some crazy bull market.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: Some crazy bull market, and some people will be part of it, some people won't, and it's really up to you where you want to sit on that one.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: But here is a screenshot.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: You know we shouldn't swear on YouTube, right?
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: So we're going to do that.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Not a single effing company has missed earnings in Q2.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Not a single one.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: These are software companies.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: These are 40 software companies.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: 40 software companies beat earnings, and you can see them here Palantir at the top right, unity there's some big ones, paycom in there and so on Twilio, atlassian, all these guys, hubspot, dropbox they've all beaten earnings, and that just means these guys are making more money than expected.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: Ai is actually generating savings or profits for them, and that's a good thing.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: That's a good thing.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: So software is still looking very, very good.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: There's some other sectors as well that I think are looking very, very good, and there's also an opportunity starting to arise in some of the most hated stocks, and Tesla is certainly one of them.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: But this is an interesting chart here, I think.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: Move your political opinions, or whatever you might have, aside, because it isn't going to help For the same journey aside, because it isn't going to help for the same journey wherever this is.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Where is this?
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Does anybody know?
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: Marina District, fisherman's Wharf?
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Where is this?
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Guys, chinatown Looks like San Francisco.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: You tell me.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: You tell me, literally, tell me in the comments, literally tell me in the comments.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: A ride with Lyft costs $10.85.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: With Waymo it's $21.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: It's like some sort of luxury ride.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Uber $9.93, almost the same Robotaxi $3.84.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: So look at the cost per mile it's $2.82.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: The nearest competitor is three times more expensive.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: If Tesla can keep this, sorry uber, if tesla can keep this up, then they may actually not work with uber or lyft.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: Because I've been saying all along, I think tesla is going to sell these once they get into mass production.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: They're going to sell these robo taxis or lease them to uber, into lyft, because why wouldn't you?
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: They've got this massive network.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: If they can actually do this at a third of the cost, then they have a price advantage that is so freaking great that everybody's going to download the robo-taxi app because it's worth it.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: I would do it.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, why spend 60% more on your journey if you don't need to?
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: So, in which case, uber and Lyft are toast and Tesla takes over 67% of the market share of Uber and Lyft where it is available, and that could be a huge boost for Tesla.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: So if you ever look at the Tesla stock chart here as Palantir is still going to the moon, obviously, as it should If you look at the Tesla stock chart here, it's coming into a nice-ish sort of pattern and I'm a big believer in patterns, not a believer, I'm a make money out of patterns and if you see, what we've done here created pretty much the same highs at the same sort of levels, starting to break out of that zone.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: We've also broken out of the downtrend zone here, that one Bit of resistance still on the way up to about 360.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: But it looks like it wants to, you know, start to break out here.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: I still think it's a little early, but the early data is starting to look kind of interesting.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: Now, you know, I was going to ask how much options cost.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: Somehow I seem to have lost that indicator.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: Where did that go, guys?
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: They've moved it.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: They somehow moved it.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: But yeah, might be.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not suggesting you should do that, but buying sort of a long option into next year or even 2027 or something like that is yeah, okay, it takes nine thousand dollars still, so it's still, you know, a little expensive.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: You can go a little higher if you want it to be seven thousand dollars.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: I'm not recommending you do this, by the way, but um, that sort of thing might start to look appealing again if tesla really does deliver on what they, what we think it might deliver on right.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: So it's something, something to watch out for.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Please don't run out and buy options if you don't know how this works.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: It's a little bit complex, so I think this is kind of an interesting one.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: Right now.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: To go back to the shorts, one of the stocks that's very heavily shorted at the moment is is lemonade, basically anything that you saw being pumped heavily on on um by people who were collecting commissions from these companies on youtube and sort of after covet.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: You remember that time it was all about those kind of companies like lemonade.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Um is massively shorted by a 30 short float and it's been going sideways for a pretty long period.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: Since the beginning of the year.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: It's done bugger all all year, really, from 1st of January we're up, 2nd of January we're up okay, 30%.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: It's not like it hasn't done nothing, but most of the time it was just going sideways.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: It's possible.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: Good earnings, very heavily shorted.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: This thing breaks out of sort of 50 to 50 or thereabouts, maybe even exceeds here the high, some here $53 and a bit.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: We might go look at the last short squeeze Flat, flat, flat, flat, flat, boom.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: Right, how big was that boom?
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: That boom was struggling here slightly with the measuring tools.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: You can see that was 180 percent right.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: So that's what we're looking at with some of these short squeezes potentially and bear in mind in 2021.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: This thing was trading at 189 dollars.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: But but just keep buying and holding individual stocks, you'll do great.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: Four years later, you're down 73%.
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: Well, the market is up by more than 73% probably.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, if you do these kind of things, obviously they're somewhat high risk.
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: You got to do them small, you got to have your risk management place and so on.
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: So I'm not telling you to do that, but there are some opportunities in here that are pretty, pretty tremendous.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: The last thing I'd watch for guys and sort of weirdly off screen still because of these bloody kittens is VIX volatility and yeah, that's at 16, pretty, pretty decent, I'd say.
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: I think that's something we can live with, but we're below all the moving averages now, which is a good thing.
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: So the market isn't panicking, the market isn't freaking out.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: Just bear in mind August and September has low volume because anybody with lots of money is, generally speaking, on holiday somewhere, especially Wall Street.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: So it's a setup for shorts because, again, if there are very few buyers and sellers out there, then something like you know, whatever these are, uh, there's a, there's a chance that those guys could could, potentially beyond meat that still exists, remember that eat highly processed fake food, like why You've got a nice five-star hotel.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: So you're like have you got a veggie burger?
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: I'm a vegetarian.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: I'm like, yes, we have a Beyond Meat burger.
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: I'm like, yeah, I'm not going to eat that crap.
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: If you've got a normal veggie burger.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: I'm like, no, no, we only have Beyond Meat.
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: Who wants to eat that?
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: It's the world's worst fast food.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: Anyway, it's down still rather respectable 98% from the October 2020 high.
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: So these kind of stocks have done very little.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: They get a little bit of positive good news.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: They're heavily shorted.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: They have a potential to go to the moon, so to speak, but you're going to be.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: They make this your entire strategy, and so on.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: Obviously, this is a risky place, but something like Oscar might be a more interesting one because it's actually a reasonably decent business.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look at that.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look at oscar.
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: Here's oscar health.
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's, it's not done, you know, as horribly as the other ones, but yeah, massively, heavily shorted.
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: Um, and maybe that's why we see here some of these.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: You see some of these volume days.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: The 82 million shares traded stock goes up seven, eight percent.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: That's why we see here some of these.
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: You see some of these volume days.
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: The 82 million shares traded stock goes up 7%, 8%, that's probably that, but still it's setting itself up to maybe do it or maybe not do it, we'll find out.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: So if you get some value out of this, download that list, felixfriendsorg.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: And if you want to dive a little deeper into rules-based investing, then there's also a free 15-minute masterclass at felixfrenzorg.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: Get free.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: I can just about remember that.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: You can see kittens racing around behind me, as you should, and I wish you a tremendously beautiful start to this week and I hope to see you over the coming days.
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: Take care.