Latest / The Scout and The Speculator / Buy/Sell/Hold 2026 Bowman Chrome - Episode 4
Transcript
- Jaba: Hello everybody and welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator Podcast. This is Will Jarvis, also known as Jabba Cards, joined as always by my co-host Jeremy Brown of Perfect Game Baseball, also known as JGB underscore cards underscore. We're back with a weekly buy sell hold. This is one of our more popular episodes. I certainly understand why. And I really like the list we have put together for today, I Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: think. All three I really strongly agree with. I think it's three really relevant names that people will want to hear about. And yeah, it should be a good conversation. Before I get into it, this episode is brought to you by Prospect Pulse. You can find it on the App Store. I don't know what the Android equivalent of the App Store is. It might be on there. Not sure. maybe not. But for web and mobile, it is Prospect Pulse.com. V1.com. I like using it on my desktop primarily. Not my desktop, my laptop, but I like using it on the computer primarily, but the interface is great on mobile as well. Just the greatest website out there for anything related to Bowman baseball cards, whether it's checking prices, seeing what auctions are ending tonight, seeing sales data, who's moving where, tracking your collection. It's just the greatest tool you could possibly have, and it's basically every little tool in one place. You're not gonna find that anywhere else. Use code Scout for your first month free. I'm not sure if that's up and running yet, but if it's not, shoot me a message on socials at Jabba Cards and we'll make it happen for you. But yeah, let's get into it. Jeremy, who's who who's our buy? Jheremy: everybody. You buy everybody. Elion Rosario of the Rangers definitely doesn't seem to get the love he deserves, right? Like maybe it's some biasy towards Rangers in the developmental system or how they haven't really brought anybody along or people are afraid of Paulino Santana still from two years ago being a main chase. I don't know what it is. But You look under the hood of Elion Rosario, there there is some physical maturity risk, I guess, if that's such a thing right now. We're like, he might have to play third base and maybe he has to play an outfield corner, which puts added pressure on the bat. But end of the day, he's he's turning eighteen next month. Happy birthday, Elyon. he's already six foot two, hundred and ninety five pounds. And as you kind of dig through everything percentage wise, like Alright, fly ball percentage in the DSL, 46.9%. Power hitter puts the ball in the air. We like that. The only two higher, Angebel and Isaiah's Castillo. Checks out. One of the best contact hitters in the DSL with an 81.5 contact rate and a mere 7.5 swing and strike rate. Like. I don't know man. Like you just keep looking and I know we talked about it, like his bat bips really low, meaning batted average on balls in play. Like meaning he he's not getting lucky with balls that do get put in play. So the fact that he was able to put up a two fifty one batting average with an eight twenty seven OPS with that type of luck, I think is a good thing. Like I think it's gonna lead to him being seeing his numbers rise because I just don't think it's possible to stay unlucky your whole career. Realistically. last week you could find his base autos for sub ten dollars. I got a refractor. Somebody listed one for as a bin for like 13 bucks. That was an absolute no brainer for me. They're they're right around $9.84 on average. Like, I I don't know if it's a an org thing. I don't know. I I just think he is a guy that people should be stocking up on and have it maybe not stocking up on. I don't think you should stock up on any one particular DSL player. Because of the volatility of them. But he's Jaba: For sure. Jheremy: somebody like I I bented true gold at 200 bucks when true blues were doing a buck sixty, buck seventy. That refractor, I have a base auto or two. Like just enough where you feel comfortable in case he does pop off like you think he should. All of his numbers are there for that that point in the right direction of what you want for him. It's just like two point five million bonus, has sixty grade raw power, was topping like Well into the hundred plus exit velo in in workouts down into Dominican. Like everything's there. It's just gonna come down to where he plays, what does he do in terms of just that like a strikeout percentage, which isn't even all that gaudy right now. And does he get to the power consistently once he gets to the states? I guess. Jaba: Yeah. I I really like your your point about Just kind of buying while he's at a good price, not buying too much to a point where you feel like you're really depending on him to be great. And that's true with all the Bowman Chrome guys. And I think something interesting you mentioned, I I forget who you mentioned from two years ago from the Rangers, but even last year, Alorky Rodriguez had similar Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: prices. And I just wanted to say, I feel like the down slope for some of these guys that struggle, yes. You look at Alorky Rodriguez now and his prices are way down. But I think a lot of people buy these Bowman Chrome guys, they get assigned to the complex, they start their season a little later than most of the prospects you would have in your portfolio. And I think you probably have about a month or so where if a guy comes out, he's not really performing. I think people, I don't want to say forget about the complex guys. But I feel like you have more time than a guy in say double A where everyone is kind of tracking, knows what's going on. So I feel like not only with Bowman Chrome is it a release where you're saying, okay, I don't want to get too bloated on any one guy because the risk is so high. I do think if you're vigilant when next season starts, I think you can get out pretty much whole if a guy is struggling, so long as you're paying attention and keeping track of things. I think that the market does lag behind performance there. That's something that I want to look into more next year. I'm confident enough to say it. I can't give any real numbers or data, but that's something that I saw this year that I kind of have highlighted just to keep on my radar for next year. But yeah, I'm with you. I think Ellian Rosario is great. Like you said, the Babip is pretty hilarious. Just No way that that's sustainable in the best way possible. So yeah. Getting into the getting into the sell here. We got Francisco Renteria. You're gonna say he's one of the best players in the product. You guys have said he's one of the best players in the product. You guys have constantly said he's a top three player in the product. That is still true. That is a hundred percent true. He's awesome, he's a great player, but at ninety-eight dollars, he's basically even to Angibil Gomez. Angel Gomez again dropped to 80, 85. Now he's back around a hundred. That's because he's in the AFL, and not only is he Surviving, but he's playing pretty nicely. He's not lighting the world on fire in a tiny sample, but he's doing more than just. treading water. So at the same price as Angel Gomez, at the same price as Luis Hernandez, now you're gonna say, okay, well Luis Hernandez isn't in the AFL. Yeah, but Luis Hernandez has some single A-ball under his belt at a at the age of seventeen. Did it go great? No, but they felt that he was advanced enough to get there. And again, this is nothing against Francisco Renteria. He's a great player. I think we both think he's a great player and we both believe Jheremy: Mm. Jaba: in him. However, the other Two, you kind of have a reason to buy in right now, right? With Hernandez Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: having played in single A, Gomez going to the Arizona Fall League, you j you just don't have that reason to offset the helium leaking out of these guys post release as we head into the offseason. Rentory is the only one of that big three that doesn't have that thing to offset the off season going into the offseason without a lot of momentum. And again, not his fault. Nothing he did wrong. But we saw Angible Gomez dip. We saw Luis Hernandez dip. And Anjou shot back up. There's just nothing that's gonna keep Renteria up. I think he probably settles around sixty-five, seventy bucks. Just looking at where Yoswar settled last year. And again, that's nothing against him. That's a great price for a guy who hasn't played full season baseball. But I think we're going to see him fall the most of the big three. So again, it's more just the fact that there's no positive news flow rather than him doing anything negative. But I just think if you're gonna spend a hundred bucks on one of the three, he's the hardest to justify. And I think if you wait a few months, you'll have a real buying opportunity and you'll be glad that you waited a little bit. You won't be able to get two for the price of what he is now, but it won't be that far off. Jheremy: Mm-hmm. And I I truly I I still think there's some sort of short print to his base auto, and that's why it's such a slow downturn for him. I don't think he is readily available like some of these other guys. I could be wrong, but the the way in which his prices stayed so high at the beginning, I feel like there's gotta be something to it where he is a little bit shorter printed, not transacting as frequently. So that's kind of just delaying the inevitable with his price. I could be wrong. That's just what my gut tells me. Jaba: I'm with you. Jheremy: hold. And this is somebody that we can give ourselves a proverbial pat on the back for. Because a couple weeks back we had Joe Hensey call him a as a sell for where he was. He was what about a thirty-five, thirty-eight dollar base auto? Thirty-nine is where we had him. And he is down to a twenty dollar base auto, twenty-one in change. So almost a fifty percent drop. three weeks since in the last three weeks. And guess what? He's still really good. And now that you can start getting him at this price, because you're at twenty one bucks, guess what? You get under 20, you get PWE ship and you're into it for an extra dollar fifty to ship it. we like getting those PWEs. Yeah, there's some risk, but you also save yourself and like we talked about, shipping taxes and fees, all things we don't like to account for buying cards, but are all very real finances that you have to factor in. had a couple home runs, hit two eighty three during the K KFL, the D S L. I was looking ahead. Forty percent fly ball rate, walked twenty one percent of the time, did have seventeen percent strikeout. That's more walks than strikeouts. We take that. So again, we've talked about it. The bat speed is probably some of the best in the class. Dad pitched in the big leagues for a while. I see some of his stuff pretty cheap. There's a true blue that somebody like jumped all over. Like it got listed and it was gone immediately this morning. I think it was like two fifty, which I think is still cheaper for what his like I don't know if his base autos and color are gonna coordinate correctly. Yet. I d I don't know. It seems like some of these guys' base autos are cheap and their color still does really well. Especially true color, something we've clearly talked about and beaten to a pulp at this point, like There's a chance you can still get clean color out there in the wild. But I'm gonna say Jaba: Yeah. Dwindling there. Jheremy: when exactly. gonna say it's a hold right now for him. Because there's a chance he comes down a little bit more, and if so, like then he automatically becomes a buy. He's not somebody we are by any means looking to sell right now. He is somebody very much that again, like Rosario, you're gonna build your war stash however many you wanna feel comfortable holding. However whatever colors you want to get into, I bought a yellow because I thought it was really cheap. that's the first auto I've had of him. Which is kind of crazy because I bought it for 150. And my shop had a green lava that was at 300 that I was ready to buy for like 250 until I saw something on the back of it. And it's just wild because that's probably a sub-200 card now as well. So like it's a a blessing I didn't buy it, I guess. But He's got some really cool color matches between the greens and the yellows too, which are kinda cool because those aren't your prototypical Bowman colors, so Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: it's cool to s they they do hold somewhat of a premium too, so Jaba: Yeah, it's nice when the non premium ones kinda get that bonus. Like with a true blue or a true orange, like with Mets guys. Jheremy: Yep. For sure. Jaba: You know, you're already paying a premium, but it's kinda nice to have a guy again, this was true with the pirates with the yellows. It's nice Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: to have kind of one of the general non-premiums. Emerge has something that people want. It's nice to have more options whether you're buying or selling. It's just kinda a small added bonus. Jheremy: And the most obvious one is Rocky's purple, so go Rockies. Jaba: Yep. Yeah, I think Colemy's great. it it Jheremy: Yeah. Somebody we definitely talked about. Jaba: it's just tough when he's the c the color is just fascinating to me. Jheremy: Mm. Jaba: you know, I I really don't understand it. I like him a lot. I'm not saying I don't dislike him, but yeah, I kinda echo what you said where it just doesn't make a ton of sense that he's this high above the rest of his comparable peers. Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: have a hard time figuring out why it is. But it kind of just is what it is, although the base is like we said at that $20 mark. It's right there. But I think it has room to go to $1516 and at that point I'd be happy to buy. Especially if the Jheremy: No doubt. I agree. Jaba: 20 comes with bubble mail or shipping and the fifteen comes with Jheremy: PWA. Jaba: PWE 'cause that's that's like twenty six versus sixteen. It's not just Jheremy: Exactly. Jaba: twenty versus fifteen. That's a you get another Jheremy: And Jaba: five dollar difference off the shipping. Jheremy: The one other thing I'm gonna say quickly too, just with that and the comps falling, because I do know a lot of people who listen are on whatnot too, like you start getting that they come down enough, enough, enough. Hardly ever do cards on whatnot go over comp. So if you're already at like a fifteen, sixteen dollar base auto price where you're comfortable buying on eBay anyway, and then they run it on whatnot and nobody likes to pay full comp on the app, hardly ever. You're getting that for like twelve, thirteen, fourteen bucks. Like just I don't know. I feel like whatnot's o its own world in terms of what people are willing to pay and comps and everything, so Jaba: I also think there's a lot of deals to be had there right now. Jheremy: For sure. Jaba: Maybe I'm just speaking from personal experience, but I was selling on there two, three times a week up Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: until around Labor Day, and then things really crashed to a halt, and it got to a point where I was like, Okay, I think eBay might be a better option right now. Jheremy: Mm. Jaba: So that's a seller's perspective. Again, I'm just one person, but I was doing a lot of volume and I definitely saw things dwindling. I was gonna do a show On Sunday, I saw some other big shows, and their audiences were half of what I'm used to seeing for them. So I bailed out. So I think that there's probably less people on the app right now. There's probably less streams, but I do think that the deal potential there is probably higher than ever, and it's definitely higher than it is during the season. So I think if you're a whatnot person, I think you can really get some steals on these new Bowman Chrome guys, especially on base autos. Because like Jeremy said, people like feeling like they're winning, getting a Deal, and if you're even paying full comp or just below it, you're doing Jheremy: Right. Jaba: pretty nicely on these new guys. But all right. Jheremy: Yep. Yep. Jaba: You got anything else for the people? Or are we good to Jheremy: No, not Jaba: keep keep motoring here? Jheremy: Let's just keep on trucking along. Jaba: Alright, we're gonna go record the next episode. We're trying to flood everyone with content today. We got a great content week coming up, and thank you guys for listening. Go Mets.