Latest / Simply Bitcoin / BREAKING: First US Bank Launches Bitcoin ETF and it's NOT Who You Think | EP 1477

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BREAKING: First US Bank Launches Bitcoin ETF and it's NOT Who You Think | EP 1477 · Simply Bitcoin

0:02
The first US Bank is launching their Bitcoin ETF tomorrow,
0:06
officially beating JP Morgan to the punch.
0:10
While we're all hyper focused on the Middle East, this is
0:13
potentially just as big, if not bigger than what BlackRock when
0:18
BlackRock launched their I Bit Bitcoin ETF in 2024.
0:22
And if you remember, Bitcoin saw a violent bull run begin in the
0:26
weeks after that ETF launch. It's the same thing about to
0:29
happen again. And are we going to get another
0:31
massive 200% rally following this announcement?
0:35
Think it's a little early to say that, but that's exactly what
0:38
happened the last time we got an the IBIT ETF.
0:42
And again, I know this is the ETF news and a lot of us
0:46
Bitcoiners, I think we're burnt out on the ETF news per SE, but
0:50
this is a significant first. Again, the 1st U.S. bank, it's
0:54
not just a hedge fund. This is a bank, one of the top
0:57
ten banks, I think roughly it's like the 6th or 5th largest bank
1:02
currently. So who we talking about?
1:04
I'm sure you guys saw this, but here's Eric Balkunis, Morgan
1:08
Stanley Bitcoin ETF. The MBST is going effective
1:13
tomorrow. Looks like tomorrow, the
1:16
Wednesday the 8th, it's gonna be officially listed on the New
1:20
York Stock Exchange. Now it is kind of interesting.
1:23
Of course it's a Bitcoin trust, but this is an ETF.
1:28
So tomorrow's the official, official launch date.
1:30
Now, of course you're probably looking at this like I said, and
1:33
you're like, dude, Opti, why are we talking about an ETF?
1:38
You guys keep shilling for Wall Street and I'm like, guys, look,
1:41
we are self custody Maxis here. We believe you should be holding
1:44
spot Bitcoin, but there is a growing and a huge appetite for
1:51
Bitcoin products coming from Wall Street trusted
1:55
institutions, particularly the ETF.
1:57
And I do have an ETF update from the other ETFs which tentatively
2:01
pretty bullish, but let's break this down a little bit.
2:04
So Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ET FM BST is going live tomorrow
2:09
and they have 16,000 advisors ready to sell it to its clients.
2:14
So remember when the BlackRock ETF was launched?
2:17
I forget how many clients or advisors they had.
2:19
I think it was around 8000. Well, we just got double of the
2:23
advisors from some of the most trusted institutions going to
2:27
show this to their to their clients.
2:30
Now when you understand that we just added a whole new army of
2:35
people that are going to show Bitcoin tentatively very
2:38
bullish. Now, when you understand how big
2:42
Morgan Stanley is, depending on the numbers, they hold about $6
2:45
trillion of client assets. Again, we're not saying that
2:50
total 6 trillion is going to find its way into Bitcoin, but
2:53
another capital pool just got unlocked that's going to go into
2:58
Bitcoin. Now at the current moment they
3:01
have been kind of pushing the I bit or the you know Fidelity
3:06
ETFs, any of the other cohorts of ETFs out there.
3:09
Now they're launching their own in house product here.
3:12
And we did cover this story I think a couple of weeks ago when
3:16
we were hearing some speculations and rumors.
3:18
And this is going to be the lowest price fees currently at
3:22
14 basis points .14%, which is about, I believe, 11 basis
3:28
points or a .11% lower than the I Bit ETF.
3:33
So they're what, a year and a half after the Black Rock I Bit
3:37
ETF. So they're a little late to the
3:39
race here, but it's going to be very interesting if the fee
3:42
structures does play a significant part of how much
3:47
Bitcoin they can acquire. So again, it's going live
3:50
tomorrow, but here we go Morgan Stanley set to launch it's spot
3:54
Bitcoin ETP exchange traded product or an ETF as most people
3:59
call it Morgan Stanley Bitcoin trust tomorrow, according to a
4:02
listing notice from the New York Stock Exchange Arca shared by
4:06
Eric Balkunas, trading should begin on Wednesday, most likely
4:11
Wednesday morning 9:00. I don't know why it keeps doing
4:18
that for me guys, it's our our streaming software is acting up
4:22
today. Anyways, again, first major U.S.
4:28
bank to launch an ETF. Now I know you guys have been
4:32
saying for a while we've even been saying it one you guys keep
4:36
shilling for Wall Street products.
4:38
Well, we are a new show and we got to keep you informed of all
4:41
of the latest news on Bitcoin, but this is a significant first
4:46
and I think this is going to be a start of a growing trend.
4:50
Remember, we've covered last year that JP Morgan, they've
4:55
been pretty quiet in the last couple of months, but they've
4:58
been pretty vocal about how much they want to launch Bitcoin
5:01
products. They are the authorized
5:03
participant of the BlackRock ibit ETF.
5:06
And now we're getting an official major bank launch into
5:11
the Bitcoin market, which is, I think this is going to be
5:15
absolutely huge. So again, filing shows the
5:17
Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust or Morgan Bitcoin Stanley Trust,
5:22
what is the name of it? Yeah, Morgan Stanley Bitcoin
5:25
Trust will charge a .14% annual fee below the roughly .25%
5:32
charge by Blackrock's I Bit and most other US Spot Bitcoin ETF.
5:35
So again, from a competitive standpoint, you're seeing that
5:41
Wall Street, the banks, the hedge funds, the institutions
5:45
are competing to offer better Bitcoin products to their
5:48
clients, which is what we always talk about.
5:50
Look, we may not like the ETFs, we might not hold the ETFs, but
5:54
as we've been covering, there is a real use case for these
6:00
products for a lot of people, maybe not for us, but for people
6:03
that are more accustomed to institutions, they want these
6:07
products and further, they want Bitcoin products.
6:10
And now they're competing on the fee structure.
6:12
Now they're trying to offer the best Bitcoin products.
6:15
So I think, you know, I don't like to use the term net
6:18
positive, but this is wholly good, I think for the Bitcoin
6:23
space at large. Now we can all talk about
6:27
whether ETFs are good or not, whether they're creating paper
6:29
Bitcoin, etcetera, etcetera. I think that's a whole other
6:32
conversation. But the fact that we have the
6:34
biggest banks, the biggest hedge funds, the biggest institutions
6:37
in the world competing for their clients to offer the best
6:41
Bitcoin products, this is a significant change from where
6:45
we've been. Now there is a a couple more
6:48
interesting angles to this, particularly, again, 16,000
6:53
advisors holding roughly $6 trillion of capital for their
6:56
clients and they're going to be tasked to recommend between 1
7:01
and 4% of people's portfolios into this particular ETF.
7:08
So that's an unlock of, I don't know, couple 100 billion that is
7:14
now going to find it to weigh from Morgan Stanley Clyde's into
7:17
Bitcoin at today's price. That's a significant amount of
7:23
capital. They, they have a very good
7:25
chance of acquiring a lot of Bitcoin.
7:28
And that's the real question like where are they going to get
7:30
the Bitcoin? There's only two ways.
7:32
You either sell your Bitcoin to Morgan Stanley right now, which
7:36
is there's probably like 3 buyers in the market currently.
7:39
Sailor is buying all the Bitcoin.
7:41
We have Larry Fink and now we have Morgan Stanley.
7:44
So if you're selling your Bitcoin currently because you
7:46
think you're going to trade the Bitcoin from 60, I don't even
7:50
know what the price is to 6667 K so you can buy it lower at 40K.
7:56
You're basically selling it to the very people that you thought
7:59
you were going to disintermediate and now compete.
8:02
And if this does get a significant amount of capital,
8:07
you might not get it back at the same price that you got it.
8:10
You might not be able to get it at these lower prices.
8:13
So this is an interesting significant move happening from
8:17
a major U.S. bank. And then we got Fongley, of
8:21
course, from strategy and he goes in the last month, Let me
8:26
pull it up. Hold on.
8:27
In the last month, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab and
8:31
Citadel, among the world's largest wealth managers, broker
8:34
dealers and hedge funds have all announced plans to build Bitcoin
8:39
capabilities. It's probably nothing though,
8:41
like it's, it's probably not that big of a deal because we're
8:45
just such hardcore bitcoiners and it's not self custody.
8:47
It's not done right. I totally fall in line with the
8:51
hardcore, hey, it's not self custody and you probably
8:54
shouldn't be buying this. But as we've been covering since
8:58
last year, well really since BlackRock started this race in
9:03
2024, it's been a slow progression of these
9:08
institutions wanting to deliver Bitcoin products to their
9:11
clients. 2024, it was slow. Everyone was kind of just
9:15
watching the I Bit ETF. Obviously there was other ETFs
9:18
that followed, but most of them were coming from the Bitcoin
9:21
space or Bitcoin as companies. Now in 2025, we saw that the
9:26
banks have pretty much gotten the green light that they can
9:29
officially offer Bitcoin products.
9:31
And as I was saying, I believe 2-3 weeks ago on the show, 2026
9:36
might be that inflection point where we see literally the
9:41
biggest names in finance either launch Bitcoin products, be
9:46
allowed to sell, spot Bitcoin to their clients.
9:51
Like this is a significant amount of capital that is now at
9:55
the very least, being exposed to Bitcoin in a quote safe,
10:00
reliable way because they do trust these institutions.
10:03
We as hardcore bitcoiners, that bitcoiners have been in the
10:06
space for a long time. We really, you know, we, we kind
10:10
of were outsiders to start with. But if you are from a more
10:15
conservative traditional financial perspective, you are
10:19
waiting for these big names to launch Bitcoin products.
10:23
So you feel comfortable withholding that Bitcoin.
10:27
We don't want to use these products.
10:30
We don't we don't want them anywhere near our Bitcoin.
10:33
But if you use Morgan Stanley, if you are AJP, Morgan Klein, if
10:38
you are a Black Rock client, most likely, again, I know you
10:42
guys yell at me because I always say mean words about boomers,
10:46
but if you are of the older cohort, you trust these names to
10:51
handle your money. And now what are they officially
10:55
all saying? They're giving Bitcoin the stamp
10:57
of approval. We're going to launch these
10:59
Bitcoin products. We have our own Bitcoin ETF 6000
11:03
advisor are going to start recommending 1 to 4% into these
11:07
Bitcoin products. That's a huge unlock of capital
11:09
that is now going to be able to find its way into Bitcoin.
11:13
So let's talk about this Nico and, and I will give you guys
11:16
some numbers of the other ETF 'cause we did see some bullish
11:19
stuff happen with the other ETFs.
11:20
But this alone I think is a huge news story.
11:24
Again, probably not if you're a more hardcore Bitcoiner, but it
11:30
does feel like we have now officially entered into the
11:34
early majority phase of Bitcoin and this is how it was going to
11:38
happen. And I think I already know what
11:39
you're going to say. I, I swear you're going to say
11:41
the three things Sailor said for us to go to.
11:45
I forget what the number 10 million or something, but.
11:47
Anyways, anyways, so yeah, I'm absolutely going to say that.
11:50
So a couple observations here, like first of all, this is
11:53
enormous news. And the the reason for that is
11:57
the timing of it, right? Like this isn't happening when
12:00
we're in a bull market era. This isn't happening when the
12:03
price is going up, this isn't happening.
12:05
You know, the year after the happening, this is happening the
12:08
year of the bear market, you have a major U.S. bank basically
12:13
going out there. They're seeing what BlackRock is
12:16
doing. They're seeing the amount of
12:18
money that BlackRock is making. They're seeing that the Bitcoin
12:24
ETF is the most successful ETF launch in financial market
12:29
history and they're saying, hey, wait a second, why can't we get
12:34
in on that action? That's what Morgan Stanley is
12:38
saying. Now going back to what Opti was
12:41
saying regarding, there was three things that Michael Saylor
12:44
said. It was a very famous spaces and
12:46
it happened back in 2022. So it happened four years ago.
12:50
It happened a long last time ago.
12:51
There was three things that Michael Saylor said needed to
12:55
happen in order for Bitcoin to hit $5,000,000 per coin.
13:00
First thing was the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF check.
13:05
Second thing was the change of the Fazbee accounting rules so
13:10
that from an accounting perspective it would look
13:13
favorable for Bitcoin for for companies for institutions to
13:17
hold Bitcoin on their balance sheet.
13:19
And the third thing was for banks to start custodying
13:24
Bitcoin. Now I want you guys to connect
13:26
the dots because it is a big field, right?
13:29
First data point, I'm going to give you guys Citibank at the
13:33
Bitcoin for Corporations conference that BTC Inc and
13:38
strategy throw together. We had a representative from
13:41
Citibank making the case that, hey guys, Citibank is now going
13:47
to or working towards their customers custodying Bitcoin.
13:51
Now you have another major bank in the United States announcing
13:56
that they're launching their own Bitcoin ETF at the bottom of a
14:00
bear market. Ladies and gentlemen, do you
14:04
think that Morgan Stanley would put in the resources and the
14:08
time and the energy and perhaps the PR hit if they didn't feel
14:14
optimistic about the future of Bitcoin as an investment
14:18
vehicle? That's the question that I have
14:20
for you guys. It's so obvious.
14:22
It's clear as day. Everything that Sailor said
14:26
needed to happen. All the pieces that needed to
14:28
fall into place, which none of those things were true when he
14:32
made this, it was a famous Twitter Spaces.
14:34
People made a recording of it. It went viral.
14:38
They reposted on YouTube. They reposted on X and he said
14:43
$5,000,000 per coin if these these three things happen.
14:47
And then I was doing some research.
14:48
I think it was like it was like yesterday or the day before.
14:52
Sailor's entire base case for his company is that he believes
15:00
that Bitcoin on average is going to compound 30 to 20% for the
15:06
next 20 years. That puts Bitcoin at roughly 13
15:12
to $20 million per coin by the year 2045 S.
15:19
Right now you can get that upside for $68,213.
15:27
And you know what one of the things that sailor said needed
15:31
to happen is happening. He said that the big banks in
15:35
the United States needed to get involved.
15:39
They needed to participate in this and ladies and gentlemen,
15:43
this is happening also. I can't name this other bank,
15:47
but I've mentioned it to you a couple times on this show.
15:50
Another major bank cut mark on the conservative side.
15:54
The brand is extremely well known.
15:57
I got some info that they're launching a Bitcoin related
16:02
product. So if you put all of these
16:06
pieces together, it's giving you a picture of what the largest
16:12
financial institutions in the United States, how they feel
16:17
about the future price appreciation of Bitcoin.
16:20
I think This is why Sailor was so hell bent on the Bitcoin for
16:25
corporations. I think This is why sailors
16:28
spent so much time, you know, going and you know, there's this
16:32
famous picture of him in New York City out of certain banks
16:35
headquarters and like all that stuff he's been spending so much
16:38
time doing and putting in the legwork.
16:41
So all of this stuff would fall into place.
16:43
Remember Vanguard? Vanguard, which is the second
16:47
largest asset manager in the world.
16:48
Initially, they're very famous because they said, hey, listen,
16:53
we're not going to follow in the footsteps of Larry Fink and
16:55
BlackRock. We don't think Bitcoin is an
16:59
asset. We, we, it doesn't produce any
17:01
revenue. You know, the same talking
17:02
points that Warren Buffett uses and, and what, what do they do?
17:09
That CEO is no longer the CEO Vanguard and they launched an
17:13
ETF. So again, if you put all these
17:16
pieces together, it's, it's, it's, it's point it, it's
17:20
painting a very clear picture of what the most powerful and
17:27
wealthiest financial institutions in the world, what
17:31
they how they feel about Bitcoin.
17:34
And there is another thing about that article that stuck out to
17:37
me. You have was it 16,000?
17:42
Yes. 16,000 of the most specialized salesman the world
17:49
have ever seen, which are, you know, literally people that are
17:54
working at these banks and their main goal right now that Morgan
17:59
Stanley is launching their product, they're going to go to
18:01
their customers, specifically the wealth management division.
18:05
I'm, I'm, I'm thinking and they're going to say, hey guys,
18:09
we got a shiny new toy. Do you guys remember the, the
18:11
scene from Wolf of Wall Street with Matthew McConaughey, right?
18:14
Of course, is it being a little bit hyperbolic and it's being a
18:17
little bit of excessive, but that that's pretty much it.
18:21
They're picking up those phones and they're saying, hey, listen,
18:24
I know this Bitcoin thing. It was risky.
18:26
Yeah, that might not be the best analogy, no.
18:29
It is, it is the IT is the best analogy, bro, Because at the end
18:33
of the day, I think you, you're, you're the reason you're saying
18:36
like that. Sounds like the the penny stock.
18:37
I ain't got this dog shit. Product the the reason the the
18:41
reason the reason you're saying it like that and the reason it's
18:44
very it's very hard to perceive as this like win win type of
18:49
situation is unlike how Wall Street traditionally runs right?
18:55
Is that what they do is that they extract wealth from Main
18:59
Street right? They have this edge right and
19:03
they use their insider information that breaking news
19:06
from Robin Hood, right Alex Leishman from river he he
19:10
released this video. He's basically making the point
19:12
that like all these financial institutions are essentially
19:15
becoming like these de facto gambling platforms.
19:21
You could say all of that. You could say, oh, I don't trust
19:25
Morgan Stanley. You can say I don't trust Larry
19:27
Fink. You could say I don't trust
19:29
Michael Saylor. I don't like the fact I'm not
19:32
saying this, but you can make the argument that I don't like
19:35
the fact that Michael Saylor holds or is is is destined to
19:40
hold 1,000,000 Bitcoin. You could say that you can make
19:43
all of those arguments, but regardless, his incentives are
19:50
now aligned with yours. The Trump family, which haven't,
19:56
you know, they haven't exactly done, done, done the best with
20:02
the launch of their meme coins and all of that stuff.
20:07
The fact is that the president's son has a Bitcoin company.
20:13
It's called American Bitcoin, Trump's own social media
20:18
platform. They have exposure to Bitcoin.
20:23
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lebnick, he has exposure to
20:26
Bitcoin. He went on Poms podcast.
20:28
He's like, I'm going to, I'm not going to stop buying Bitcoin.
20:33
Now you have Morgan Stanley. Now we're going into kind of
20:36
mainstream territory, ladies and gentlemen, in the midst of a
20:42
bear market. They're coming out and they're
20:44
saying, hey, hey, guys, we're going to launch a Bitcoin ETF.
20:48
And why are they doing all of this?
20:51
Do you think they're doing this because they're tuning into
20:53
simply Bitcoin and they're like, yo, these guys are so right.
20:56
We got to separate money from state, bro.
20:58
Like the money's broken and the Fed not, bro.
21:03
They still think we're kooks, right?
21:05
The reality is that the Trojan horse, right?
21:09
Alex Gladstein wrote an amazing article many, many years ago.
21:14
It was published on Bitcoin magazine.
21:15
It's called Bitcoin is a Trojan horse for freedom.
21:19
All of these banks, all these institutions, these sovereign
21:22
wealth funds, they cannot resist.
21:26
They cannot resist. And right now what you're
21:30
witnessing is a capitulation just like every other bear
21:35
market that has happened throughout Bitcoin's history.
21:39
You're seeing a capitulation on the on the country level, on the
21:44
institutional level, you're seeing a capitulation.
21:47
But the companies that are well structured to endure and survive
21:55
in this kind of, you know, up in the air type of environment,
22:01
they're positioning themselves. So when the bull market returns
22:05
and it will return, it always returns.
22:10
The infrastructure is in place for Bitcoin to reach those
22:16
higher highs. The infrastructure was not in
22:19
place before it was, it didn't exist.
22:24
Now the infrastructure, not only does it exist, it's cycle
22:28
tested. The Black Rock ETF, it's gone
22:32
through a cycle strategy, it's gone through 2 cycles at this
22:36
point. So this is all of this needed to
22:41
happen in order for Bitcoin to hit new highs without all of
22:46
this happening. And, and I know as I know you
22:49
guys, I know you guys in the chat that are just like, listen,
22:52
like Nico, I don't want Wall Street to buy Bitcoin.
22:54
Well, dude, if you don't like Wall Street to buy Bitcoin, go
22:58
and smash buy Bitcoin. Go do it, right.
23:01
But we are at a market cap. We are at the, the size of the
23:07
asset is so large that it's inevitable that institutions are
23:13
starting to look at this and they're saying, yo, this thing
23:16
is real. It's not going away.
23:18
And now it's Bitcoins time to prove that it's made for the
23:24
next levels. Now it's Bitcoin's time to prove
23:29
that it is worthy of being a $5 trillion asset, a $10 trillion
23:35
asset, a $20 trillion asset. This is what is in front of us,
23:41
ladies and gentlemen. And because there's not, there's
23:44
because there's not 100% certainty.
23:48
There's an element of risk. And that element of risk is why
23:53
you see the volatility that you see, right?
23:56
And again, Sailor very wisely released an entire product for
24:03
people that didn't want to endure the volatility, which is
24:08
the stretch product, which is again, based on the thesis that
24:14
Bitcoin is going to have a 20 to 30% CAGR for the next 20 years.
24:19
So he's like, I'm going to remove the risk.
24:21
I'm going to get, I'm going to get the upside.
24:24
I'm going to take the 11%. That's great for most investors
24:30
because again, we have information asymmetry that is
24:36
working to our advantage. We know that Bitcoin is the the
24:41
best asset the world has ever seen.
24:42
We know everything that has and could have been said about
24:46
Bitcoin and written about Bitcoin that has been written
24:49
and said already. You had the intellectuals of our
24:54
lifetime. I remember I was interviewing
24:55
Seifidine and Lugano at the Plan B forum and one of the first
25:00
questions I told him I was like, dude, like you know that in like
25:03
100 years or 200 years, you're going to be like, you're
25:06
basically going to be talked about like Hayek, like you're
25:10
going to be talked about like, you know, these world renowned
25:16
economists. I hate that word.
25:18
But so be it that because they came around before their time,
25:30
there's a this kind of like mythology around them, right?
25:33
Like there's, they're, they become, like, they become myths,
25:37
they become legends. But we forget that they were
25:41
human beings. We forget that there was a point
25:44
in time where Hayek published his book and people were like,
25:49
oh dude, this is like this thing is crazy, this thing's sick, and
25:53
they bought his book. Well, we are living through that
25:57
time right now, ladies and gentlemen.
26:00
We are living through that time, but we're living through this
26:05
economic pivot, which is Bitcoin.
26:09
We're living through it. We're witnessing it, we're
26:11
seeing it, and we're walking in the we're walking besides the
26:19
footsteps of legends like Saifuddin, like Sailor, like, I
26:29
mean, you could say whatever you want, but in 100 years, bro,
26:32
that's what's going to be looked at.
26:33
It's going to be obvious. Like Opti.
26:36
Like Opti. No, no, I I agree, Mika, that
26:40
that was a great Rep. This this is, this is what's
26:42
happening, right? So anyways, to kind of wrap this
26:46
up, weave it back in, this is this is massive news.
26:50
This is massive, massive news. And again, this is just another
26:54
giant rubber stamp of approval, once again vindicating our
27:00
thesis, right? And I and I literally can't keep
27:02
a straight face because Opti's just like dying of.
27:05
The chat, the chat is like they're they're they're they're
27:09
on fire today. Sorry dude.
27:10
I'm they're, they're making me laugh, dude.
27:14
Let's pull up. Some of those I already did, I
27:16
already did, but hold on before before I keep it moving.
27:19
I I do want to give you another update with the with all the
27:22
other ETFs. So I know the ETF stuff is is
27:26
kind of like old news now, but with this recent Morgan Stanley
27:32
ETF news being what we kind of think is being an actual
27:36
significant kind of change for 2026, we did get another pretty
27:41
interesting data point come out of the other ETFs.
27:44
So here is oops, sorry guys, here's the block and I'm just
27:49
going to read the headline here 'cause that's all you really
27:50
need to know. It goes spot Bitcoin ETFs report
27:52
largest single day inflow in six weeks worth 471,000,000.
27:56
So half a billion dollars of inflows are back on the table
28:01
for the ETFs. And someone made a, a pretty,
28:04
pretty good comment earlier. And, and it's been, it's, it's
28:07
too far up ahead. But it, this is like the, the
28:11
feeling that I'm also getting. And to paraphrase the chat
28:14
comment, it was something on the lines of I thought I, I like, I
28:18
can't believe what I'm watching right now where retail is
28:20
completely checked out of Bitcoin and the institutions are
28:24
more bullish on Bitcoin than retail is right now.
28:28
And the reason I'm bringing that up is because we're seeing
28:31
something similar happen with ETF.
28:33
Now, of course, it's not the monolithic institution, it's the
28:37
institutional client or a traditional investor looking at
28:40
Bitcoin and they want some Bitcoin exposure.
28:43
And the only reason that I can kind of wrap my head around why
28:47
we are starting to see more capital flow into the ETFs is
28:52
for the very reason that I've been saying I've been very
28:55
surprised about how Bitcoins reacted since the announcement
28:58
of the war six weeks ago now. It's crazy.
29:00
It's been six weeks. The fact Bitcoin didn't drop
29:04
after that on that Monday after the initial attack, I was, I
29:08
thought it was very surprising. And now we've seen it kind of go
29:12
sideways where stocks and gold, they've all kind of retrace,
29:16
yes, they popped back up, but they're still they're kind of
29:18
struggling right now. And even though Bitcoin hasn't
29:21
really broken out of this 6070 K range, the fact that it has held
29:27
on as strong as it did, I think that might be why we're starting
29:30
to see the institutional capital or ETF inflow start to, you
29:35
know, come back on the table. Now, maybe I'll talk about this
29:39
a little later, 'cause there is, you know, some interesting
29:42
updates that are going on with the war in the Middle East that
29:45
happened this morning. But I, I have a Trump post that
29:48
is like I, I'm not going to cover his, his crazy post here,
29:52
but he posted this video here and it's very ominous on his
29:56
true social. So that I, I think I'll kind of
29:58
connect the dots for you guys later on the show here.
30:01
But anyways, Nico, I think we should keep it moving where 30
30:06
minutes in and we've been ranting.
30:07
Yeah, I mean, that's why people tune into the show now anyways.
30:10
Hey, yeah, we got a good one. Look, shouts out to me, Doctor
30:14
Daniel Howe, off to you, right. Yesterday after the first break
30:17
was the best I've ever in a long.
30:18
Time look, I do want to address. Shout out to you, Brad.
30:21
I do want to address Jim John, Jim Johnson from.
30:26
Oh, Rumble, the Fiat Maxi from Rumble.
30:27
That's the Fiat. Maxi, nothing better than
30:29
teaming up with the globalists who said it was, who said it,
30:33
that Bitcoiners are doing the work for globalists.
30:38
That's right, me. OK, so let's talk about this and
30:42
again, this relates back to the article that I told you that
30:46
Alex Gladstein wrote where he is making the case that Bitcoin is
30:50
a Trojan horse for freedom. So right now, what is happening,
30:55
the reason Elizabeth Warren, this is so important guys, you
30:59
want to pay attention to this. The reason Elizabeth Warren was
31:04
so hell bent against the Clarity Act and against the Genius Act
31:10
is because her political philosophy is she only wants the
31:15
government to get to decide what is money, right?
31:19
So she wants, and she said this publicly, she wants a central
31:25
bank digital currency. She doesn't want Bitcoin being
31:30
integrated into the US financial system because if you think
31:35
about what Bitcoin is, right, if you think about it for a second,
31:41
think about what happens when all of a sudden people start,
31:47
let's say the stretch product, for example.
31:50
That thing survives 15 years. Now think about the younger
31:56
generations that are Internet native, they were born into a
32:01
world where Bitcoin already exists, right?
32:06
And you start thinking and the younger generation specifically,
32:10
which I believe got the shorter end of the stick, specifically
32:15
the the millennials, the Gen. Z ers, Gen. alphas, Gen. betas,
32:20
etcetera, etcetera. Because they got the shorter end
32:26
of the stake, they are by default going to already not
32:31
have a lot of confidence in the current financial system.
32:35
So with an integration of Bitcoin into the current
32:39
financial system, again, your ability to go in and out right
32:46
from dollars to Bitcoin is going to get progressively easier and
32:52
easier and easier. This is why she didn't want the
32:56
Genius Act to pass. This is why they don't want the
32:59
Clarity Act to pass. This is why they had Operation
33:02
Choke .2 Point O, and This is why they shut down banks like
33:07
Signature Bank. This is why they didn't want
33:10
Kraken to have a federal banking charter with the Federal
33:14
Reserve. This is why they didn't want all
33:17
of those things to happen. Remember, ultimately Bitcoin is
33:22
a bottom up revolution. First it was adopted by the
33:26
individuals, now it's being adopted by institutions, and
33:31
then inevitably it's going to be adopted by nation states.
33:36
And remember Max Keiser's famous quote, because guys, if if
33:41
Bitcoin is able to be Co opted, it's already failed.
33:45
This is what you guys have to understand.
33:48
But remember Kaiser's quote, you don't change Bitcoin, Bitcoin
33:53
changes you. So just buy these institutions
34:00
offering these products, just buy their customers getting
34:04
exposure to Bitcoin just by the youth not being able to afford
34:10
things and starting and seeing seeing Bitcoin and seeing wow,
34:15
that is actually a viable and better alternative.
34:19
You are going to have a cultural and financial peaceful
34:25
revolution. This is where all the memes stem
34:28
from. This is where fix the money, fix
34:31
the world comes from. This is where Kaiser, you don't
34:34
change Bitcoin, Bitcoin changes you comes from.
34:37
This is where Bitcoin or slavery comes from.
34:40
All these memes, they come from this base idea.
34:45
So it's like you can say whatever you want about us.
34:49
Oh, we're talking about, you know, Larry Fink and Blackrock's
34:53
ETF. You're talking about, you know,
34:56
Morgan Stanley launching an ETF. Guys, do you not remember 4
35:00
years ago? Do you not remember how much
35:03
four years ago they were trying to put us in prison?
35:06
Four years ago, they're trying to destroy our industry.
35:10
They were launching attacks left and right.
35:13
The ESG. What happened to the ESG
35:15
narrative? Yeah, what happened to it?
35:18
Do you remember the, the hit pieces from the New York Times,
35:22
the multiple hit pieces? It got to a point where there
35:25
was like if you, if you turned on to the Chinese Communist
35:30
Party's official like news channel, their, their, their
35:35
excuses were getting so desperate.
35:37
It was getting to a point where it's like, listen, if everyone's
35:40
gonna adopt Bitcoin, everyone's gonna die.
35:42
Like it was like, it was so like hilarious and like, whatever.
35:46
That's what they were trying to stop.
35:48
They're trying to stop the normalization of Bitcoin in
35:53
people's minds. And that is what's happening
35:56
right now on a cultural level, on a financial level, yes, Wall
36:01
Street is going to think they're going to be able to do what they
36:06
do with everything else. But the advantage here for you
36:09
as an individual, the everyday person who's just tuning in to
36:13
simply Bitcoin, staying humble, stacking stats, is that guess
36:17
what, if coin goes up 50%, a hundred percent, 200 percent,
36:22
300% from here, you know what, you're going to benefit just as
36:28
much from holding your .1 Bitcoin or .5 Bitcoin.
36:33
Then Michael Saylor is holding, you know, whatever.
36:37
I think on a personal level, he's holding 10,000.
36:40
So probably more on a percentage basis, you're going to benefit
36:43
equally to him, right? That's the beauty of this,
36:47
right? And if you transition your life
36:50
to a Bitcoin standard, which is what we advocate for every
36:54
single effing day of this show, you are going to benefit from
36:59
all of this. This is bullish news from a
37:02
number go up perspective. From a fix the money fix the
37:07
world perspective. Again, you got to take self
37:11
custody. That's it.
37:12
So that's it. And again, the beauty about
37:15
Bitcoin this midterm year is that you don't have to wait for
37:18
a politician to get elected. It sure does help.
37:21
You obviously do want a more positive political environment.
37:25
One of the things that bums me out about the Trump
37:27
administration launching meme coins and people getting burnt
37:31
with meme coins is that, you know what?
37:33
Most people can't tell the difference between Bitcoin and
37:35
crypto. And when inevitably the pen, the
37:40
pendulum swings back, which it always does, politically
37:43
speaking, right? What do you think they're going
37:45
to do? What do you think the Elizabeth
37:47
Warren camp is going to do? What are they going to do?
37:50
But again, if you are bearish that Morgan Stanley, one of the
37:57
largest banks in the United States is launching a Bitcoin
38:00
ETF, what do you think they're going to do when you know who
38:03
runs Washington? The lobbies, that's who runs
38:07
Washington. It's the the interested parties.
38:12
Those are the ones who fund all the politicians and their
38:15
campaigns and the and their donations and the Super PACs and
38:18
all that stuff. It all comes from lobbyists.
38:21
That's where it comes from. And who are some of those
38:25
biggest lobbyists? The banks.
38:28
Who was who is the biggest hurdle for the clarity Act to
38:31
pass right now? It's the banks, right?
38:34
And now what happens when you have major U.S. banks going out
38:39
publicly and saying, hey, guys, we're launching Bitcoin related
38:42
products? You know what happens if
38:44
Washington starts passing hostile Bitcoin regulation?
38:47
You know what the first thing those banks are going to do?
38:49
They're going to start making those phone calls and they're
38:52
saying, hey, about that donation, about that support.
38:57
I don't know how I feel about that anymore.
39:01
This is all about incentives. And the beauty of Bitcoin is
39:04
that it aligns incentives from the little guy to the big guy.
39:08
That's the beauty of Bitcoin. It's this bottom up kind of
39:12
virus like type of phenomenon that you see.
39:15
So this is incredibly bullish news.
39:18
I can't, I can't, I can't emphasize that enough.
39:22
Like this is what winning looks like.
39:24
But again, we're going to continue to beat the battle drum
39:29
of self custody because ultimately that is the only way
39:34
you reclaim back your financial sovereignty.
39:36
It's only by having Bitcoin in your own custody.
39:39
That's the only way. If you have it in ETF, it's not
39:42
yours. They have they, they have it for
39:45
you. You have to ask for permission.
39:46
Ultimately. I know it doesn't feel that way
39:48
with the with the slick UI and the ease of use, whatever, but
39:53
you want more people actively taking self custody of their
39:56
coins. That is ultimately what's going
39:57
to change the world and again, I think this is a positive step in
40:00
that direction anyways, guys, we just broke 500 live viewers on
40:03
YouTube. If you guys are enjoying the
40:04
live show so far, make sure to smash that like button.
40:07
We got a ton of content lined up for you guys today.
40:09
It's going to be a great show. We got clips from Oh my God,
40:13
what's this gentleman's name? He's a legend.
40:16
Adam Meister, the Bitcoin Meister talking about.
40:21
How it was how he felt 10 years ago when Bitcoin was at $700.00.
40:27
You're going to hear very, very similar sentiment and feeling.
40:32
And then of course, we got a clip of the one and only
40:34
legendary James Lavish, and he was dropping some softs talking
40:38
about how inevitably they're going to print money.
40:42
And then during the culture segment, we're going to be
40:44
giving away some sad. So you guys are going to want to
40:45
stay tuned in for that. Guys.
40:47
It's going to be an incredible show.
40:48
You guys are going to want to stay tuned in.
40:50
We're going to be right back in just a bit.
40:54
Today's episode is brought to you by Bitcoin Well Infinite.
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All right, everybody, we are back.
43:05
At the time of recording, the Bitcoin price is $68,370 sats
43:10
per dollar 1463 block hike 944,073 Realized monetary
43:15
inflation .83% market cap 1.37 trillion Bitcoin versus gold
43:20
market cap 4.56% Percentage issued 95.29% decline from all
43:27
time high -45.8%. So if you're buying Bitcoin
43:31
right now, you're getting it at a 45% discount.
43:34
That's like a clearance sale. Clearance sale for Bitcoin
43:37
happening right now. All you got to do is take
43:40
advantage of it. Clearance sale for Bitcoin
43:42
Breaking news breaking, big breaking, mega breaking anyways.
43:46
Massive breaking. I got a clip for you guys, which
43:48
I know you guys will appreciate. This is Adam Meister, the
43:52
Bitcoin Meister. He's not as active as he used to
43:55
be, but this man is a legend, right?
43:58
This guy was making Bitcoin content when Bitcoin content was
44:01
not popular, right? This guy was was making Bitcoin
44:05
content when no one was making Bitcoin content and this is a
44:08
clip of him 10 years ago. He posted this on April 5th,
44:13
2026. He said I made this Bitcoin
44:16
video 10 years ago. Back then, some were shamed if
44:22
they had paid the high price of $700.
44:27
Others were paralyzed because they can.
44:29
No, they couldn't. They could not get over the fact
44:33
that some had only paid double digits per Bitcoin a few years
44:37
earlier. Lack of long term thinking.
44:41
Guarantee is a very strong word and I can't guarantee anything.
44:47
I can't guarantee anything, but I could.
44:49
I could tell you what I believe personally, I genuinely believe
44:55
in my heart of hearts and actually it's interesting
45:00
because I this is like the era that I got into Bitcoin.
45:05
Wow, it's been a long ass time dude.
45:06
Holy crap we've. Been We're old.
45:08
Damn bro I was around back then. That's crazy.
45:18
Wow, it's been a decade. Dude, you're old.
45:21
That's wild. OK.
45:23
Old and crusty. Anyhow, dude, but I mean the the
45:26
ups and downs along the way. Holy wow blah blah blah.
45:30
Anyways, this is what I believe. OK, 10 years from now, which
45:39
apparently goes by way faster than than you think because I
45:43
feel like this was like yesterday, bro.
45:50
Even the camera quality like you could tell you know.
45:53
It was 20. 16 I'm like I'm going down memory lane such a crazy
45:58
time in 10 years OK, hopefully we're the ones that got clipped
46:06
right? We clipped this, we clipped this
46:08
video. Doubtful you're going to be
46:13
looking at this and you're going to be like, yo, remember when
46:19
Bitcoin was like 68,000 and now it's at $1.52 million per coin,
46:23
dude, Like what What like. 1.68. Like what what Like what why
46:29
what the what the F was I thinking bro?
46:32
Like I could have been a millionaire for $68,000.
46:36
Not financial advice, I don't know the future, nobody does.
46:39
But I think we made a very strong case in the beginning,
46:46
did we not? If Morgan Stanley just launched
46:50
an ETF, do you think that trend is going to reverse 10 years
46:56
from now? I, I food for thought for you
46:58
guys, right? Do you think the Kingdom of
47:03
Bhutan, all these sovereign wealth funds that are buying
47:06
Bitcoin and they start benefiting from Bitcoin?
47:08
Do you think all the people that are buying Bitcoin put into self
47:12
custody and their, their, their lives are fundamentally changing
47:16
because of Bitcoin? Do you think, question for you
47:19
guys. Do you think they're just going
47:22
to say, oh, you know what, let's pack it up.
47:26
Let's go home, bro. Let's let's, let's, let's find
47:33
another career choice. You know, I do kind of want to
47:37
say that every once in. A while, let's find, let's let's
47:39
let's find another asset. Let's find another asset.
47:42
Yeah, not that that's the. Question I have for you guys.
47:44
So anyways, I've been I've been like you know, teasing this
47:47
video for quite a bit now I want I want to play it check it out.
47:51
Let me know what you guys think. And then there's some people
47:54
that are just, they do have some money, but they feel like they
47:57
missed out totally. The Bitcoin's $415 now.
48:01
Oh God, I hate those Bitcoin people because they got in when
48:04
it was $20.00. But you know, reassure them, say
48:07
hey you know what, I paid $600.00 for a Bitcoin.
48:10
Maybe you did, maybe you didn't. I mean there are lots of guys
48:12
out there that admit they paid 800 for a.
48:14
There's no shame in that. Say you know what, it's never
48:18
too late to get in. And if you don't have a lot of
48:20
money, buy .1 Bitcoin. The guy was talking about this
48:28
when Bitcoin was at $800 per coin.
48:34
What would you do for $800 Bitcoin?
48:43
Things I can't say on this show. This, this is, this is like the
48:47
mentality that I want. I want you guys to get through
48:50
your heads. Is that like at that time, I
48:55
remember, I remember this vividly, like I was like, bro, I
48:59
did know someone that was able to get Bitcoin at $100 per coin.
49:04
I think I knew like maybe one or two people that were able to get
49:08
Bitcoin at under $100 per coin. Those people are, they rode into
49:14
the sunset long time ago at this point.
49:17
But this is what I'm talking about, guys.
49:25
This is what I'm talking about. The times change, the price goes
49:30
up, but the human condition does not change.
49:34
The human psychology does not change.
49:38
It does not change. Oh I love that comment, thank
49:42
you JRR tokens. Fast forward 18 months from now,
49:45
we will be at 10,000 live viewers where we won't even be
49:49
able to talk to each other over anymore because the chat will be
49:52
moving too fast. We'll add the mods, everyone.
49:56
Everyone's now a mod that's been hanging out with us in the bear
50:00
market. No, that's too much work.
50:06
For you. OK.
50:06
All right, guys. So let's let's look at this
50:10
seriously for a second. If you don't learn lessons from
50:16
the past, you're destined to repeat it.
50:21
That's it, that's my take. Yeah, a great.
50:25
Wow, Some Nikko wisdoms here. You really, really maturing with
50:31
that beard as you get older. It's going to be great soon
50:34
anyway. Look, this I, I'm, I'm a 2017
50:41
Bitcoiner, so this is right before my time.
50:44
But it is very interesting that when you get into Bitcoin, you
50:51
always feel the same thing. You're like, I'm late, why
50:53
should I buy this now? And I think that's only going to
50:55
continue to increase. We're going to constantly be
50:57
having this like eternal September moment where new
51:00
people are going to come in like, why should I buy this
51:02
thing? It's only going to go up 100%
51:04
from here. And I'm not going to get the,
51:06
you know, 1,000,000% gains that you guys have got like, what's
51:10
the point of this? But every Bitcoiner feels that
51:13
way. When you come in, you look at
51:15
the people that were there before you and you're like, man,
51:17
I really wish I could have got those buys.
51:20
The flip side of this is what Nico and I have lived through,
51:25
where you're in Bitcoin for so long, you think it's expensive,
51:30
but what do you do? You just smash by as much as you
51:33
can. You just play the game of
51:34
Pac-Man. You try to accumulate as much
51:36
Bitcoin as humanly possible. And then in that moment, you
51:40
think you're doing everything you can to get as much Bitcoin
51:43
as you can. And then you Fast forward, you
51:46
know what, 10-9 years and you're like, damn, I really wish I went
51:51
harder at that time. Like, I really wish I went even
51:55
harder at the time. I wish I'd, you know, wasn't
51:58
spending any money on stupid stuff.
52:01
And I, I truly also believe like, we're going to be talking
52:04
about these prices the same way. I mean, what?
52:06
We've been going sideways. Literally, it feels like 4 years
52:10
at this point. And yeah, we all want to see it
52:13
go up, but this is the time when you just, you got to accumulate
52:19
as much as possible because in five years from now, new people
52:22
are going to come in and look at you and be the same way.
52:24
It's like, man, I really wish I got the buys that you have
52:27
gotten. And they're going to be jealous.
52:29
It's like, I think the 6070 K range that we are right now, it
52:33
really does feel like what 15K felt, you know, a couple of
52:37
years ago. And it's just always going to be
52:40
this process and we're always going to look back on these
52:42
clips and be like, man, I really wish I, you know, there's people
52:45
that are like, I really wish I, I got Bitcoin at 100K now it's
52:49
$1,000,000 per coin and it's never going to go back down.
52:52
So I know a lot of us have been a little demoralized as bear
52:56
market. You can see it in the chat.
52:58
I black pilled on the show, Nico's black pilled on the show.
53:01
I think it's just a process of doing this every single day.
53:04
Like Nico said something that was interesting.
53:06
Like, man, it's been 10 years. It feels like it's yesterday,
53:08
like my first buy of $100 in like 2017.
53:14
It does feel like yesterday. But the time in between, from
53:17
that initial entrance to now, it feels like 100 years.
53:21
It feels. Like a lifetime.
53:22
It feels like a whole life. We've aged like a lifetime too
53:25
bro. Like it it.
53:26
It does feel. It does feel quite long anyways
53:31
guys, it's so going to be an incredible show.
53:34
We still have a ton of content for you guys left.
53:36
We have a clip of James Lavish talking about the inevitability
53:40
of them printing money again, the famous meme that was created
53:44
by Knute Svenholm Infinity divided by 21 million.
53:49
And again, if they continue to print money.
53:52
Good to see you bullish again Nico.
53:54
Optimist was getting lonely. Appreciate the chat bro.
53:57
The chat chat keeps us up dude. They're being nice.
54:00
They're being nice, dude. Actually, they were being nice
54:01
to me yesterday, and now they're being nice to you today.
54:04
We got a prediction in the chat, Juggernaut says 2028.
54:07
It will be 300 K 2035100K per coin.
54:12
Bearish, Bearish. Moonshine Fuel says it's like
54:18
the argument was it too late to buy Manhattan in the 1800s?
54:22
Well, obviously no, but that's what some people thought back
54:25
then. Yeah.
54:27
And then we got Paris people. Don't think big like that,
54:30
Hedge. Cook says million dollar peaks.
54:32
I don't know what that. Was I think they're saying.
54:33
I love this quote. I love this quote, Sener Feener
54:37
says. Wish I bought in when it was
54:40
under 250K. That's what people are going to
54:42
be saying 100% their ends in October 6th, 2026, David Rios
54:54
said. I remember when banks paid a
54:57
decent interest rate on savings accounts.
54:59
Lol yeah that what like 50 years ago when I know that 100 KB TC
55:07
is. When will I know that 100K?
55:10
I, I, I'll, I'll say it you want.
55:11
Let's speculate a little bit. Anyways, we'll tell you right
55:14
after the break. I want to give a shout out to
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All right, everybody, we got the one the only we got to invite
58:32
him back on the show. James hasn't been on the show in
58:34
a while. Mr. James Lavish and he's
58:40
talking about the fact that the US can't refinance 12 to $15
58:47
trillion in debt at 5%. And that's the reality.
58:53
I mean, Opti, if you want, while I play the video, we could pull
58:55
up the debt clock. And it's incredibly obvious.
58:59
I mean, Lynn Alden has talked about this at length.
59:02
She says it. She says nothing stops this
59:04
train. Nothing stops this train.
59:06
And then, of course, you got the one the only legendary Larry
59:10
Leopard talking about, you know, he wrote a book called The Big
59:14
Print. All right, within the name, the
59:17
big print, right? They can't get themselves out of
59:19
this. They they ran Elon out of town.
59:23
Elon tried to get in there and try to get the spending under
59:26
control. And even with the House and the
59:31
Senate completely in the hands of the Republicans, it's almost
59:35
as if it's almost as if they're the same part.
59:38
I didn't say that. I didn't say that.
59:40
I did not say that. Wow, I didn't say that.
59:44
We got them, folks. But it's almost as if Washington
59:50
can't control their spending regardless of political party.
59:55
It's almost as if it's almost as if you can't really change the
1:00:00
destiny of the of of the country via the election process.
1:00:06
Wow, I got them. So what do we do?
1:00:08
What do we do? There's Plan B, you opt the F
1:00:14
out. That's what you do.
1:00:15
All right, everybody, let's check out this clip from the
1:00:18
one, the only James Lavish, and then we'll talk about it.
1:00:22
If you have a prolonged conflict that causes energy prices to
1:00:28
spike enough, that causes the Fed funds futures and overnight
1:00:34
rates to stay where they are and for investors to demand a higher
1:00:40
yield on long, long term bonds or long bonds, 10 year, 20 year,
1:00:46
30 year bonds. If they are demanding higher
1:00:48
yields because they know that there's this excessive inflation
1:00:52
out there, then what's the play? I mean, if you have a 10 year
1:00:57
that's at over over 5%, I mean, the US Treasury can't, they
1:01:02
can't refinance those 10 years with with more 10 years.
1:01:06
I mean, that's good. That would be catastrophic if we
1:01:10
started refinancing 1020 or 10 or 12, fourteen, $15 trillion of
1:01:15
debt at 5%. That's not going to work, you
1:01:19
know. So what do they need to do?
1:01:21
And then you're talking about locking in 5% for 10 years plus.
1:01:25
You can't do that. So what would they do?
1:01:27
They would go out there and buy them instead.
1:01:29
And that's the yield curve control and that's the expansion
1:01:32
of the money supply. And that's where you have the,
1:01:35
the debasement trade really comes into play for these long
1:01:38
term assets that are that are, that are not that you can't
1:01:41
inflate them, things like gold and things like Bitcoin, because
1:01:45
then they're then they're going to be critical in this.
1:01:47
We will see money printing, you will see yield curve control, no
1:01:51
matter what they call it. And you'll see assets, assets
1:01:54
like gold RIP higher and Bitcoin also.
1:01:58
So it's interesting because he's making the same case that Arthur
1:02:03
Hayes made. I, I got to give a shout out to
1:02:05
Arthur Hayes because he really called it and he went down like
1:02:09
history lane. And he basically showed that
1:02:12
every time the United States has entered a conflict, it's ended
1:02:15
with the Fed printing a lot more money, of course, to finance it.
1:02:22
And this whole debacle with, I don't know if you guys have been
1:02:26
paying attention or do you even care about politics and whatnot,
1:02:31
but like, this thing doesn't look like it's ending anytime
1:02:39
soon. I'll, I'll, I'll put it to you
1:02:40
this way. Iran has a Strait of Hormuz.
1:02:46
It doesn't matter how much technology and military,
1:02:49
military, military advantage the United States has.
1:02:53
It's this very narrow passage where again, they can
1:02:59
manufacture a ton of cheap drones and essentially threaten
1:03:03
the shipping lanes. There's really not much the
1:03:06
United States can do about it unless they decide to enter into
1:03:10
a full-fledged war. You have truth Social post
1:03:13
coming from the president. I mean the last one was pretty
1:03:16
crazy. Which one?
1:03:19
The one on Easter? The 1:00 this morning.
1:03:22
The one the one that the I mean, there is a pretty crazy one,
1:03:26
man. He was like, by the way,
1:03:29
YouTube, OK, just this isn't my words.
1:03:32
I can't even I can't even say this on on on YouTube.
1:03:35
Actually, yeah, it was pretty crazy this morning.
1:03:38
So Trump posted this five hours ago, President Trump, and he
1:03:42
says a whole civilization. I can't even say that.
1:03:47
I can't even say a whole civilization will be wiped out
1:03:50
tonight. This is, to quote him, never to
1:03:53
be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but
1:03:56
it will. It probably will.
1:03:58
However, now that we have complete and total regime
1:04:01
change, we're different and smarter and less radicalized
1:04:04
minds prevail. Maybe something revolutionary,
1:04:07
wonderfully wonderful can happen.
1:04:09
Who knows? We will find out tonight, one of
1:04:13
the most important moments in the long and complex history of
1:04:16
the world. 40 years of extortion, corruption and death,
1:04:20
and will finally end. God bless the great people of
1:04:22
Iran. Like you can't it is my opinion.
1:04:32
Could be wrong here, but like you basically take out the
1:04:37
entire leadership. The regime doesn't change.
1:04:45
They're entrenched ideologically and from a religious
1:04:50
perspective. I don't think if you take a look
1:04:55
at Afghanistan and if you take a look at I Iraq as examples, I
1:05:02
don't think that's like, I don't think you're going to get the
1:05:05
outcome that you want to get. Like the United States has kind
1:05:09
of been in this, like been in this, you know, in this
1:05:14
situation really since Vietnam. Iran is not Venezuela, right?
1:05:22
Like Venezuela, you actively had this giant diaspora all around
1:05:26
the world that was 1/3 of the country's population essentially
1:05:32
begging for the country to change.
1:05:34
And then a big portion of the population within the country
1:05:38
that was like tired of of it. Also, from a cultural
1:05:41
standpoint, it was very similar to the United States.
1:05:46
Iran is not any of those things at all, right?
1:05:51
So again, like, what do you do from here, right?
1:05:57
And if I was in Iran's situation and position, right, like put
1:06:01
yourself in, in, in, put yourself in their shoes.
1:06:05
Like if you basically had like all the top levels of your
1:06:11
leadership taken out by a foreign country, would you trust
1:06:17
that foreign country in negotiations?
1:06:20
And then that foreign country basically says, hey, we will
1:06:24
like, I mean, this is crazy, Opti.
1:06:27
Like we will essentially make you disappear.
1:06:33
That's crazy. Like, how do you think you're
1:06:36
going to react to that, right? Like you're not going to react
1:06:40
well, right. the United States was in Afghanistan for 20 years.
1:06:46
Get the highest technology. And what was the outcome?
1:06:51
What was the outcome? You know who controls
1:06:55
Afghanistan today? The Taliban.
1:06:59
It's 20 years of war, 20 years. This is why I was so upset.
1:07:03
This is Trump ran on a platform where he said no more wars, no
1:07:10
more forever wars because the American public was sick and
1:07:13
tired of the same BS over and over again.
1:07:23
And I think the reason as to why the American public was so
1:07:29
convinced about no more forever wars is because they were
1:07:32
looking at the outcomes of what these forever wars lead to,
1:07:36
right? And now you have a situation
1:07:40
where again, like you have a lot of the world's energy that goes
1:07:50
through those shipping lanes and they have this asymmetric
1:07:58
advantage where like money doesn't fix it, right?
1:08:04
So when James Lavish says prolonged and when Arthur Hayes
1:08:10
is talking about prolonged and I'm looking about, I'm looking
1:08:13
at the situation like if I was Iran, I'm looking at this from a
1:08:21
life or death lens. That's how I'm looking at it.
1:08:27
Because I know that if I give up, look at what they did to the
1:08:33
entire leadership. So like, again, I don't think
1:08:38
that this is a conflict that the United States should ever have
1:08:41
gotten involved in in the 1st place.
1:08:43
This is what Tramp ran on and I don't know how this is going to
1:08:49
end. I have no idea, but big but
1:08:53
because it's a Bitcoin show. You guys are not here for my
1:08:55
political takes. Money printer go Burr.
1:09:04
That's that's pretty much it. Money printer.
1:09:07
Yeah, yeah. And just just to like add, I
1:09:09
mean, obviously, I think the just to put it nicely, the Mr.
1:09:16
misdirection on what is actually going on in the Middle East and
1:09:22
particularly of course with with Iran is obviously part of the
1:09:27
military operation. Like the fact that no one has
1:09:30
any idea what's going on. I think that's part of the
1:09:32
operation. And that's kind of where most of
1:09:36
the confusion is. And I've been giving you guys
1:09:37
the the kind of investor data points of what people are kind
1:09:43
of doing with their money. The main takeaways most people
1:09:46
are sitting in dollars. Of course we're seeing oil go
1:09:48
crazy and that's kind of the general trend is no one really
1:09:51
knows how long this is going to last for.
1:09:54
Obviously tonight is going to be I think one of those monitoring
1:09:59
the situation moments later tonight, if you know, some more
1:10:04
bombs get dropped. I think we're going to finally
1:10:07
see a lot of action in the markets and I'm I'm going to in
1:10:11
particular be watching what's going on, of course, with
1:10:13
Bitcoin tomorrow morning and later on tonight.
1:10:16
If something happened, if this is another nothing burger, then
1:10:20
you know, maybe there's be nothing to talk about.
1:10:21
But be before I do that before. There, there, I'm telling you,
1:10:24
like guys, you understand the only way this resolves itself is
1:10:31
if the United States chooses to escalate, which is not good.
1:10:36
Right. Sounds like that's what's going
1:10:38
on tonight. Or they choose to back off.
1:10:41
But The thing is, if they choose to back off, that's not a
1:10:44
guarantee that Iran is going to open the straight.
1:10:48
And I just searched this and I knew because I've been paying
1:10:51
attention to this current status.
1:10:54
Iran's Revolutionary Guard holds the straight, allowing only
1:10:57
selective passage after threatening to attack and set
1:11:00
ablaze ships. The impact over 20 million
1:11:04
barrels per day of oil and liquid natural gas are
1:11:07
threatened with say that the crisis has sent global energy
1:11:12
markets into significant turmoil.
1:11:14
Some shipping has been halted to the extent that has resulted in
1:11:18
a 60% surge in oil prices as of March 2026.
1:11:24
The situation is a direct result of tensions following the US
1:11:27
actions against Iran in late February 2026.
1:11:31
So what I'm trying to say is like, I don't know.
1:11:36
There is no good. You can.
1:11:41
The straight is so narrow, right, that there is really no
1:11:46
good option here. The only option, I think, from
1:11:50
the United States perspective is to escalate the conflict.
1:11:54
If you escalate the conflict, I mean, what does that lead to?
1:11:58
That leads to what? Which is what we were not.
1:12:01
We were literally specifically promised this wouldn't happen.
1:12:04
How do you take back the straight and make sure that
1:12:06
shipping could go through? How do you do that?
1:12:10
How do you do that? It's what no one's talking
1:12:13
about. Boots on the ground, right?
1:12:16
And then where are we? Once again, this is like Iraq
1:12:20
2.0 like. Well, that's another option.
1:12:23
I mean, but the other option we can't even talk about.
1:12:26
That that was way worse. But anyway, I, I don't want to
1:12:28
continue on on about the, the war per SE because there was
1:12:32
another point of what James Lavish said, basically like they
1:12:35
have to print money. And I don't know if you guys are
1:12:37
watching the Fed buybacks, but we are already seeing them do
1:12:40
exactly what James Lavish said, which is they're basically
1:12:43
buying their own treasury. So like we are currently in a
1:12:46
not QE, QE scenario from the Fed itself.
1:12:50
Now, depending on how long this war goes, whatever, you know
1:12:54
what happened with oil, which is the big ifs here, it looks like
1:12:59
we're not going to get any Fed rate cuts. the Fed is definitely
1:13:02
in a corner right now. So everything that James Lavish
1:13:06
is saying is I think what the I don't I don't know if I want to
1:13:11
say necessarily like the intelligent investor, but I
1:13:13
think that's just the common consensus right now of what's
1:13:16
going on. So like I'm saying tonight,
1:13:18
guys, it's going to be very interesting to see what happens.
1:13:22
It's going to be very interesting to see how the
1:13:24
markets react to it. Like I'm not going to be
1:13:27
surprised if we wake up tomorrow and we finally get that final
1:13:31
capitulation wake that Nika has been waiting on.
1:13:33
If something does happen tonight, if nothing happens,
1:13:37
then maybe that's that's kind of bullish in itself.
1:13:39
So like tonight is an interesting night to to be
1:13:42
watching the markets to be watching what's going on it this
1:13:45
is a monitoring the situation night.
1:13:47
Tonight's going to be an interesting, interesting night.
1:13:50
Tomorrow morning is going to be very interesting when the
1:13:52
markets open up. So this is this is what we're
1:13:56
here for, guys. This is what we're here for.
1:13:58
So anyways, I am going to talk a little more about Trump.
1:14:04
So let's let's hit the let's hit the last ad and let's get into
1:14:07
the culture because this one's kind of crazy.
1:14:09
Like everything we talked about is kind of crazy.
1:14:10
But this post is I, I don't know what he's trying to say, Nico.
1:14:16
We'll be right back in just a bit.
1:14:17
I don't know. I want to give a shout out to
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1:15:01
Yeah, arguing off air. All right, guys, look, this one,
1:15:05
I am going to have a little fun with this one.
1:15:07
All right, this one, I we are going to have a little fun on
1:15:10
this one. I know it's a little I and
1:15:11
literally someone in the chat's like I'm waiting for Opti to
1:15:14
black pill. This one.
1:15:16
I am going to have a little fun, OK, but it's it is kind of a
1:15:19
black pill. I'm being honest.
1:15:23
All right, look, I know we're all monitored in the situation
1:15:26
in regards to what's going on in the Middle East, but did you
1:15:29
guys catch this post by Trump? This is absolutely insane.
1:15:33
Like, what does he mean by this? So Trump posted a video simply
1:15:39
with the lettering New York City, 1929.
1:15:43
Hold on, Let me let me turn it off.
1:15:47
I'll just let it play. You know, you're looking at it's
1:15:50
like, yeah, this is this is awesome.
1:15:52
You know, New York looks great, but I don't know, I'm looking at
1:15:56
this. I'm like, is this not like more
1:15:59
ominous a post than anything else he's posting?
1:16:02
I don't know. I remember something pretty big
1:16:04
happened in 1925 and 29 towards, you know, a little.
1:16:08
Later on, at the end of the. Year.
1:16:11
Yeah, like the Great Depression in the stock market crashing.
1:16:15
Like, what did you mean by this one?
1:16:17
Trump? What are we doing here?
1:16:19
Like, what is the point of this tweet?
1:16:22
Is he basically saying what a lot of people like maybe the
1:16:25
Simon Dixon angle of, you know, a financial reset?
1:16:29
We're, we're, we're working on getting Simon Dixon back on the
1:16:32
show. But what is, what is he?
1:16:34
What is he? What is Simon Dixon?
1:16:36
Saying he's basically saying that Trump works for the
1:16:42
financial industrial complex, the military industrial complex.
1:16:45
And what he is doing is he's essentially that.
1:16:49
This is my words for it, but doing a controlled demolition to
1:16:54
make the USA regional power. So we move from a, you know,
1:16:58
single superpower world to a multipolar world and it's
1:17:02
basically like a planned demolition.
1:17:05
Now with this post, you're you're kind of like, yo, is he
1:17:09
is he literally saying that the stock market's going to crash?
1:17:13
We're going to a great like without the context with what's
1:17:16
going on in the war in the Middle East with with what is
1:17:19
potentially going to go on tonight.
1:17:21
Just an ominous post like this. You're like, yo, what is going
1:17:25
on? I'm I'm wholly confused here.
1:17:28
Is this, I don't know, some premonition that the Great
1:17:35
Depression 2.0 is coming? What is going?
1:17:37
On I mean that 8:00 PM. Yeah, Roaring 20s is over, bro.
1:17:43
That Great Depression is coming. That 8:00 PM deadline, I mean,
1:17:47
what else could he do that that's what I'm saying like I
1:17:50
don't think there's there's many options here.
1:17:52
There's there isn't that many options like do you like in
1:17:56
terms of escalation, like there is an option, but it's like that
1:18:00
would be that would be gnarly that that would be it would it
1:18:06
would. Sorry, I was laughing.
1:18:07
I can't. I don't.
1:18:08
I don't even. Want to say that the how?
1:18:09
Horrible. It is the big flash.
1:18:13
Like what? What other option is there?
1:18:16
I don't know, but you put. Boots on the ground, you know.
1:18:19
Great Depression, you know what the outcome is.
1:18:21
I don't care about the war, dude.
1:18:22
He he said he's going to nuke all our bags like we're done
1:18:27
for, Bros. We're cooked.
1:18:29
It's over. Just take out, just take out,
1:18:31
just take out. Giant shorts on.
1:18:33
Bro, just short everything. Hey, tonight you short
1:18:36
everything anyways. No, I no, I just I don't know.
1:18:40
So before before. That happens guys.
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podcast description. All right everybody, thank you
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guys so much for tuning in to simply Bitcoin Live.
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