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Episode 486 - 4/7/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 all systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
• 0:14
  welcome to episode 486 of the all systems go sports betting
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  podcast powered by rhythm. I am your host, Josh Applebaum.
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  What's going on everyone? Happy Tuesday.
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  Another day here in the arena, guys.
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  And today is a transitional day because of course, college
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  basketball is over with. Sadly.
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  Went O and 1 -, 1 unit. Very frustrating.
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  Played the UConn, Michigan over. And guys, when you get 3 points
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  of CLV on a total, you're feeling pretty good about it,
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  especially late action going your way.
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  I got over 143 1/2. We even talked about 144 and a
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  half, 145 1/2 on the day yesterday on the podcast leading
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  up to the game. Well, the line closed at 146
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  1/2. So again, we did our part
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  finding good edge here on the total.
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  We had some really good rhythm system plays looking closer to
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  A15151 final score and what happened?
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  Well, they just could not shoot at all.
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  Even heard some comments on the broadcast from who was an eye
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  and Eagle and a couple of other guys because one of the rims, it
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  was just like, I don't know if it was you've seen those movies
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  where like they'll put like a magnet in the rim or, you know,
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  they'll throw a game. I forget which movie I'm
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  thinking about, but there's one of them where, you know, every
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  shot is missed or you go to a carnival and they do something
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  with, you know, throwing the football through the, you know,
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  through the circle or trying to throw a ring over the top of a,
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  you know, a coke bottle and it just bounces out that left side
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  of the rim. If you know what I'm talking
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  about. It was rough for Michigan first
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  half. UConn couldn't score in the
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  second-half. But really, when you look at it,
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  it was the shooting. Yukon shot 31% from the field.
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  Michigan shot 38% from the field.
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  And of course, you look at Michigan, they averaged 94
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  points a game in the tournament. They scored 69.
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  So coming up short, unfortunately, would have been
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  nice to win our best or our final play of the season.
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  But I don't really kick myself too much.
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  You know, looking back on, it's like, yeah, you know, Yukon
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  plays good defense. They slow it down.
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  It's a slog. But hey, you get over 143, 1/2,
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  144 and F145 and F it closes 146 and FI mean we were on the right
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  side of that number, beat the closing line.
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  The late action was in our favor.
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  Unfortunately, just couldn't score enough baskets and ended
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  landing up on what was it, 132? So we needed what I don't know,
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  14 more points or something like that.
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  I'm kicking myself too, because maybe I just was, you know, a
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  paralysis by analysis with a side.
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  I don't kick myself too much because I think that was a tough
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  handicap. But if you just go to the very
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  basic tenant, which we look for on the pod of public was on
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  Michigan, get the line dropped toward Connecticut, you know,
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  plus 7 1/2 + 7 down to 6 1/2. Of course, Yukon cash by the
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  skin of their teeth. They lost by 6 points.
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  So shout out to anyone who was able to to win with with
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  Connecticut plus 6 1/2. But again, point, the point
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  here, point there, you know, Michigan scores one more point.
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  You know, Michigan covers the -6 1/2.
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  So it goes to show you just how difficult it is to to cover a
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  number and just how good the odds makers are.
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  I mean, at one point, you know, Uconn's winning the game.
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  Another point, you know, you look at that game, Michigan is
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  up by like 11. It's like, OK, what are we going
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  to do? But obviously we we had a tough
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  beat there. I would say with the over, when
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  you beat the closing line and you don't come through, you
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  know, you don't beat yourself up too much.
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  You know, like I would be more frustrated if I bet like over
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  143 1/2 and it closed 142 1/2 and the line went against me.
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  But either way, guys, we're going to put put wraps here on
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  college basketball. And as I hinted at to start the
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  pod, it's a transitional day because now we are full steam
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  ahead grinders with blinders like a horse with the blinders
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  on on Major League Baseball. So MLB is a very long season.
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  There's a lot of ups and downs. Again, I try to limit my bets
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  because if you bet too many MLB games every single day, the
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  volume just can really kind of hurt you if you go through a
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  tough stretch. But flat batting, risking 1
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  unit, focusing exclusively on Major League Baseball, yeah,
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  maybe some NBA playoffs, some NHL playoffs, but really, if
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  you're a grinder when it comes to Major League Baseball, now is
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  the time college basketball's over to devote all of our
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  attention toward the MLB betting market.
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  So that being said, trying to get the pot out a little bit
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  earlier today because I have a three pack of MLB plays that I
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  want to talk with you guys about today and breakdown.
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  And one of them is an early match up here, a 1:10 PM Eastern
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  Time game. I have a 310 game and then a 640
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  game. So we got some day sweats,
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  nothing better than that. So I don't know if you're at
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  home or whatever you're up to, or maybe you're in your cubicle
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  with one tab on your computer on MLBTV or whatever.
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  We'll see if we can cash a couple tickets here.
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  Try to go 2IN1, eke out a winning day.
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  Now that being said, let's waste no more time.
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  Talk about this early game here. So you have enough time to put
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  this play in if you want to ride it with me.
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  Now I'm looking at a 1:10 PM Eastern Time, first pitch
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  between the Kansas City Royals and the Cleveland Guardians.
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  Now a little background here, let's set the stage.
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  Talk splits, line move system matches.
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  Also, there are a lot of interesting totals today.
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  There's a lot of bad weather today, so we'll get to that in a
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  second. But anyway, Royals come in five
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  and five. They won yesterday's series
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  opener four to two against Cleveland, came through and
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  cashed as a plus one O 5 row dog.
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  Now in this early afternoon rematch, the Royals are going
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  with the lefty Noah Cameron. He's one and O with a 1.8 O ERA.
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  Guardians, meanwhile, who are 6 and five, they're going to go
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  with the ready Gavin Williams. He's also been off to a good
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  start one and one 2.25 ERA. So what do you see it across the
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  market here? Well, this game open with
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  Cleveland listed as a very, very short home favorite.
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  So some books were Cleveland -110 -. 115 Kansas City around
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  plus 100 minus one O 5 S relatively short number both
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  ways, but sharps clearly have jumped on Cleveland here, laying
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  a short number in a bounce back spot because we've seen
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  Cleveland get up from -110 to -115 and a lot of books now -120
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  So this line is really moving clearly in One Direction towards
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  Cleveland. No buyback on Kansas City.
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  First indicator here. Smart money going with the
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  guardians. Now let's look to the bet
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  splits. DraftKings guardians getting 68%
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  of money line bets 76% of money line dollars over at circa 73%
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  of money line bets over 90% of money line dollars on the
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  guardians. So both DraftKings and Circa
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  showing a nice low bets higher dollar split pro and Joe in
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  favor of the guards. Couple system matches that
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  jumped out to me. One home favorites, awful loss.
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  So you're at home, you got the the home crowd, you got the last
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  at bat. You are favored.
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  So you're expected to win and you're awful loss.
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  Maybe some added motivation to get some revenge.
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  That system is 24 and 14 this year, 63 percent, 5% ROI layer
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  in another angle here, home favorites playing an opponent
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  who missed the playoffs the previous year.
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  So you're at home, expected to win and the team you're facing
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  wasn't that great the season previously that system is 44 and
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  22 this year, 67 percent, 8% ROI.
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  Now the guardians also have some really good correlative betting
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  because this is a very, very low total.
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  I honestly can't remember the last time I saw six with a
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  total. So the total actually open at
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  7:00 got down to 6 1/2 and now it's dropping to six.
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  So low total. Typically a good sign for the
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  favorite because the fair amount of expected runs scored more
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  likely to come from quote UN quote that better team, which
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  would be Cleveland based on around the -120 price Guardians
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  bullpen. Like hopefully we got a good
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  start here out of Gavin Williams, but bullpen has been
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  better with the Guards 4.39 ERA versus 6.17 for the Royals.
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  Also, I had three count them three rhythm system matches, all
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  predictions lighting up on Cleveland here.
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  So the rhythm AI model is with us telling us to take the
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  Guardians. Now in terms of the total, it's
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  hard to bet in under 6. Now if you still had 6 1/2,
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  there could be some value there, but 38% bets 53% dollars at
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  DraftKings on the under, 36% bets 51% dollars at Circa on the
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  under. But really it's it's about the
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  weather guys. Like if if you're in Cleveland,
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  you're going to this game, you better bundle up because it is
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  going to be like 30° with 10 mile per hour winds blowing in
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  directly from center field. So it makes sense why we've seen
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  this total really fall 7 now all the way down to 6.
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  But at all up, Cleveland at home, bad weather.
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  They're used to it. Got a line move in their favor.
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  Got a bunch of good system matches.
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  Let's see if we can start our day off.
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  Knock on wood. Fingers crossed with a win.
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  I'm on the Guardians. I got a -, 114 at Valley Bet
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  Shop around. Most books now closer to -120
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  another early afternoon matchup. Let's look toward a 3:10 PM
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  Eastern Time first pitch between the Baltimore Orioles and the
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  Chicago White Sox. Now setting the stage here, The
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  O's are four and six on the year, but did take yesterday's
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  series opener against the Chai Sox.
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  They won two to one. Excuse me, hung on and came
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  through as a -, 140 road favorite.
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  So in this late afternoon rematch, the O's are going to go
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  with the lefty Trevor Rogers. Remember, they picked him up
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  from the Marlins and he was really bad when he first came
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  over, but he's been really good since.
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  He is now 2 and O 1.38 ER, a White Sox were four and six.
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  They're going to go with the righty Shane Smith.
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  He's owing 2 with a 19.290 right so.
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  What you seen across the market? List Game Open Baltimore listed
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  around a -, 135 road favorite, Chicago around a + 115 Home Dog
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  and the wise guys have jumped on the OS, laying a relatively
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  modest price open -135 Orioles are now up to -145 I'm seeing
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  some shops now get closer to -150 -, 155 S clear steam toward
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  the the Birds here now splits look pretty good on Baltimore as
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  well. They're getting 81% of bets, 87%
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  of money line dollars at DK over at Circa.
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  Looking toward the sharps in Vegas in the desert, 80% bets
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  over 90% money line dollars on Baltimore.
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  So we're combining the line move on Baltimore with the low bets,
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  higher dollars at DK and Circa. Want to mention this, just if
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  people do like run lines, I typically, you know, go with the
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  money line. Just, you know, O's win by one.
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  I want to cash my ticket. It's kind of like money lining
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  short favorite. But just to you know, on the on
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  the, you know, I guess the interest of, of just explaining
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  the whole betting market didn't notice a lot of money go Orioles
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  -1 1/2 + 125 on the run line because they're getting 50%
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  spread bets, 98% spread dollars at Circa 66% spread bets, 78%
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  dollars on the spread at DraftKings.
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  Now the OS have another couple angles.
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  I like non division favorite lack of familiarity benefiting
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  the better team. Low total total.
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  This one is 7. We've also seen this fall 8 down
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  to seven. There's another weather cold
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  wind blowing in. We'll get to that in a second.
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  But fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come
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  from quote UN quote the better team was expected to win.
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  And of course non division favorite lack of familiarity
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  also benefiting the better team expected to win.
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  Now Orioles better team batting average.
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  Hopefully their bats show up and get to Smith. 13246 versus 2O9
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  for the Southsiders. Better on base percentage 321
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  versus 289. Better team ERA 4.33 versus 5.76
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  if we isolate lefty righty Orioles hopefully an advantage
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  here as well. They're hitting 247 against
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  righties. Doesn't seem great, but that is
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  11th best in baseball. White Sox are only hitting 216
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  against lefties. That ranks 19th in terms of the
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  total. Open at 8:00 down to 7.
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  Again, maybe this is a three nothing Baltimore win, which I
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  would love, but I don't love betting unders or overs when the
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  totals move the full run already.
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  But I did notice 40% bets, 58% dollars on the under and the
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  forecast. Again, if anytime you see an 8
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  fall to seven or A7 fall down to six, especially early in April,
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  it's usually a weather base play.
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  So we're looking at like high 30s, eight to 10 mile per hour
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  winds blowing directly in from center.
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  Again, Chicago, the Windy City, of course, but I'm going to go
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  Orioles in this spot coming off a win, trying to get another one
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  here. We got a good line move in their
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  favor, sharp steam, good splits, good system matches, and oh by
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  the way, popped open Juice Reel noticed a 19 percent, 1919
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  percent pretty big sharp mush edge in favor of the O's.
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  Telling me that the sharper winning betters out there who
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  are listening like you guys have also leaned with Baltimore.
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  So second bed of the day for me. Mid afternoon matchup here.
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  I got the O's -142 at FanDuel. Shop around a lot of books, get
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  books. Getting closer to around -150
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  last bed of the night. Let's go to a 6:40 PM Eastern
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  Time. First pitch in South Beach.
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  We have the Cincinnati Red Legs visiting the Miami Marlins now.
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  The Reds off to a good start. Terry Francona has got them
• 12:59
  playing well again. Seven and three overall.
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  They won the series opener against the Fish yesterday. 2
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  Nothing came through as a + 120 row dog rematch.
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  For tonight, the Reds are going to go with the lefty Andrew
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  Abbott. He's O and one with a
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  three-point O 9 ERA fish. Meanwhile, who are 6 and 4,
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  they're going to go to their ace Sandy Alcantara. 2 and O area of
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  0. He's been great in his first two
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  starts. I'm hoping that continues.
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  Now what have we? Seen across the market.
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  Well, Miami opened on a very short -120 -, 120 home favorite
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  Cincy around a plus one O 5 + 100 Rd. dog and we've seen
• 13:34
  nothing but movement toward the fish.
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  We've seen Miami now jump up -120 - 125 up to around -135 I'm
• 13:44
  seeing some shops even inch closer to -140 So one way
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  movement on Miami really like this over at circa 71% money
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  line bets, 85% of money line dollars on the fish.
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  So it tells me the wise guys out in the desert also going with
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  Miami. One advantage here hopefully
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  would be the non division favorite system match.
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  Again, lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the
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  better team correlative betting value.
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  Now we're in Miami, it's warmer and they're in a Dome there in
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  in Miami. So weather's not an issue, but
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  it is a low total of 7. So fair amount of expected runs
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  scored. Also, again typically benefiting
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  the better team because more of those runs are likely to come
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  from the better team who is favored.
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  Did notice as well home favorites off a loss that would
• 14:31
  match the same thing with Cleveland we talked about
• 14:33
  earlier like the Marlins in the spot.
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  They're 24 and 1463 percent, 5% ROI this year.
• 14:41
  Did see some run line action on Miami as well.
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  On the run line -1 1/2 + 155. I just went money line with
• 14:48
  Miami but didn't notice. Only 3039% spread bets, but 65%
• 14:54
  spread dollars. Going with that Miami to win by
• 14:57
  two or more run line bet couple advantages as well.
• 15:00
  Marlins better batting average. Hope their bats can get to
• 15:03
  Abbott 13260 as a team only 210 for Cincy.
• 15:07
  Marlins have the higher on base percentage 335 versus 290 and
• 15:11
  their offenses scored more runs, 49 versus 28 for Cincy.
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  Lastly, 2 little cherries on top.
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  We have a 5%, nothing huge but a 5% sharp mush edge on juice reel
• 15:23
  in favor of Miami. But here's what I really like
• 15:26
  every every morning when I wake up, you know, I'll look at the
• 15:28
  overnight numbers and I'll wait for my rhythm models to to
• 15:31
  populate. But I always look for situations
• 15:34
  where all three Green star money line models are on the same
• 15:38
  side. And this is a game where they're
• 15:40
  all on the same side. Rhythm is very high on Miami
• 15:43
  here because all three of my rhythm recommendations, the
• 15:47
  rhythm model and the two models that I've created are on Miami,
• 15:50
  but not just caution flags, Green Star, you know, light it
• 15:53
  up and go and ready to go here on Miami.
• 15:56
  So I like that Rhythm is also in our favor.
• 15:58
  So I'm going to bet the fish here, hopefully to bounce back
• 16:01
  with their ace on the mound. I got Miami -132 at FanDuel, but
• 16:05
  again, shop around. Some books are closer to -135 -,
• 16:09
  140. So a couple days sweats game
• 16:12
  here for tonight, Cleveland, Baltimore, Miami, see if we can
• 16:16
  get two out of three and he got a winning day as we transition
• 16:20
  full time into betting Major League Baseball.
• 16:23
  So that about does it for episode 486 of the All Systems
• 16:26
  Go sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 16:29
  As always, guys, this is the part of the pod where I first
• 16:32
  say thank you. Thank you for listening.
• 16:34
  Thank you for tuning in. Thank you for grinding in the
• 16:37
  arena with me every single day through the good and the bad,
• 16:39
  the UPS and the downs. We celebrate the great wins
• 16:42
  together. We commiserate the bad losses
• 16:44
  together and the bad beats. And you know, getting multiple
• 16:47
  points of CLV on a total and still losing in college
• 16:49
  basketball, which again, is frustrating, but it does tell me
• 16:53
  we read the market right. But anyway, guys, this is the
• 16:55
  part of the pod where I say thank you.
• 16:57
  And then I also ask a favor of you if you are so inclined,
• 17:00
  Could you please do a couple things to help me grow this
• 17:02
  podcast to reach more more betters.
• 17:05
  One, just give it a five star review on Spotify or iTunes.
• 17:09
  Leave a comment if you feel so inclined.
• 17:10
  Under the rate and review tab, click the follow button.
• 17:13
  Recommend the pod to a friend. You know, if you also want to
• 17:17
  retweet the pod when I put out on Twitter each day at Josh
• 17:20
  under score insights, I would very much appreciate that as
• 17:23
  well. Next, if you enjoy this style of
• 17:26
  sports betting, data-driven, sharp contrarian betting,
• 17:29
  focusing on what the numbers are telling us, not what our bias
• 17:32
  and our gut instinct and our favoritism is telling us.
• 17:35
  If this style of betting has appealed to you, you want to
• 17:37
  learn more about data-driven betting, maybe have someone in
• 17:40
  your life who could use some data-driven tips.
• 17:42
  Maybe they're brand new and want to get into betting or they've
• 17:45
  been betting for a while and just throw darts and have you
• 17:47
  ask me why did you play this team tonight?
• 17:48
  They say, oh, I just, I felt like it.
• 17:50
  You know what you should do? You should go to Amazon.com,
• 17:53
  type in either the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook or the
• 17:56
  Everything Guide to Sports betting.
• 17:58
  Those are the two books that I've written.
• 17:59
  Very proud of both. If you want to grab one or both
• 18:02
  of them and bring them to the sports book, I'll sign them for
• 18:04
  you. I'll buy you a beer.
• 18:06
  We'll get some Cracker Jacks, some peanuts, get a beer or two
• 18:08
  or maybe a ginger ale. We'll sweat some baseball
• 18:11
  together next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
• 18:14
  Juice Real yet? My two favorite sports betting
• 18:16
  apps because they're all about data and again, if you can layer
• 18:19
  on as much data as you can go away from your bias and lean on
• 18:23
  the numbers, it just makes me more confident in placing A
• 18:26
  wager. So Rhythm does a great job of
• 18:28
  powering this pod. Rhythm provides us these
• 18:30
  fantastic AI backed models and predictions for game bets and
• 18:34
  player props. Again, you might be thinking,
• 18:36
  OK, college basketball's over, but Rhythm has MLB live in the
• 18:39
  app. They also have NBA.
• 18:40
  It's always been there, but definitely want to give rhythm a
• 18:43
  shot. You can download the app 5 with
• 18:46
  a 7 day free trial and get 25% off if you use promo code start
• 18:50
  25. Then you got juice reel.
• 18:52
  Got to go download the juice reel app.
• 18:54
  Even if you just want to sync up your sports books, get a running
• 18:57
  report card of your action. It tracks your CLV.
• 18:59
  It tracks your performance. You can say oh I didn't realize
• 19:02
  I'm doing really well at MLB totals and struggling on money
• 19:06
  lines or wow I had a really bad year in NBA but I did pretty
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  good in college basketball. It gives you the breakdowns of
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  all of your it's basically a report card of all your action,
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  keeping you honest and again, giving you more insight into
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  your strengths and weaknesses. But then also you're going at
• 19:22
  the robo Jackson best bet picks. The sharp mush indicator is the
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  arbitrage plays the shop for the best line features and if you
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  want to support the pod, you can sign up to get the all systems
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  go best bet picks exclusively on juice reel.
• 19:35
  As soon as I make a bet it goes right to the juice reel app.
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  You can tail fade, do whatever you like, but you will be
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  supporting the the pod here tipping your podcast host.
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  As always, this pod is free, but you can get those ASG best bet
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  picks from Juice Reel for $4.99 a week.
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  Yeah, that's 5 bucks for a week's worth of plays.
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  Next. So of course, download rhythm,
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  download Juice Reel, give them a five star review in the App
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  Store. Next you have a live odds page.
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  If you don't have one, you really need one because it's a
• 20:04
  critical tool to becoming a successful sports better.
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  Because you got to be able to track the betting market, the
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  betting markets always moving. Lines are going up, lines are
• 20:11
  going down, teams are getting steamed.
• 20:13
  You got to pick off good numbers, got to compare open to
• 20:16
  currency, which direction the line is, move pull up line
• 20:18
  history. You want to place an end game
• 20:20
  wager. Like, you know, I must admit,
• 20:22
  when I was watching that UConn Michigan game last night, it was
• 20:26
  a very slow start. And I'm like, oh, this pace
• 20:28
  isn't good. This is a there's a Big East
• 20:31
  slow, you know, half court game. Well, I could, I was thinking
• 20:35
  about live lining the under. I didn't end up doing it.
• 20:37
  I just took my medicine, lost my overplay.
• 20:40
  But you could have gotten a live line at one point of under 141
• 20:44
  1/2 which came through. So you can do all of this, track
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  the market, find the best price, get those in game wagering odds
• 20:51
  with the help of Odds Logic. Odds Logic is a fantastic tool.
• 20:55
  It's the best live odds page around.
• 20:57
  If you want to give it a shot, all you got to do is go to
• 20:59
  oddslogic.com/josh 123. That's going to give you a 7 day
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  free trial and 50% off your first month of service.
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  Next, do you have have you downloaded, I should say the
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  They are a sports betting exchange.
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  You're going to get way better prices.
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  So it's going to make you it's going to be easier for you to
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  become a winning better because you're risking less juice and a
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  betting market exchange against other betters instead of having
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  to pay the -115 -, 120 to the house.
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  So go download profit X use promo code Josh for a 20%
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  deposit match anytime you you make your first deposit.
• 21:39
  So that about does it, guys. On a Tuesday here with college
• 21:42
  basketball in the rearview and now full scale, MLB has always
• 21:46
  two final thoughts. One, whether I see you at the
• 21:49
  Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook
• 21:52
  in New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut
• 21:55
  at the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park Casino, MGM
• 21:58
  Springfield, or the Nash and my neck of the woods on the border
• 22:01
  of Massachusetts in New Hampshire.
• 22:03
  Throughout in the desert where the true grinders get down or
• 22:05
  Billy Walter sends his number runners where the lowest juice
• 22:08
  possible is found at the South Point or sweat and sharp
• 22:10
  contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swim pool.
• 22:13
  When you catch a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
• 22:15
  you're going to walk up to me in.
• 22:17
  Unfortunately, you're not going to show me that over, even
• 22:19
  though it beat the closing line. I don't know.
• 22:21
  Did you have Michigan? If if so, my apologies if you
• 22:25
  had UConn, nice hit there. If you went contrarian, which I
• 22:28
  should have done in a championship game.
• 22:30
  But either way, guys come off an O and one or A1 and OA winning
• 22:33
  night, a losing night, a hot streak, a cold streak, whether
• 22:36
  we're grinding and you know, just can barely geek out winning
• 22:39
  days or the winning days are flowing or we feel like we're
• 22:42
  ice cold again, bedding goes ebbs and flows.
• 22:45
  There's going to be times when you're hot, times when you're
• 22:47
  cold, times when you're just grinding and you're kind of even
• 22:50
  down the middle. We just got to stick to the
• 22:51
  model, stick to the blueprint, not get too high and cocky and
• 22:55
  arrogant when things are going our way, not get too low and
• 22:58
  down on ourselves and depressed when things aren't going our
• 23:01
  way. Just got to stick with it and
• 23:03
  play the system matches. You might know by now, but if
• 23:06
  you don't, that's OK. The system matches, we are
• 23:07
  looking for our games that are simultaneously against the
• 23:10
  public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays
• 23:14
  and get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
• 23:17
  to be successful sports bettors. So hope everyone has a great
• 23:20
  Tuesday. Let's get some winners on the
• 23:22
  diamond guys, and they'll be right back at it tomorrow.
• 23:24
  That'll be a big Wednesday. Hump day edition of the All
• 23:26
  Systems Go sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 23:30
  Good luck everybody and have a great Tuesday.