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COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 9: BIG GAME PREVIEWS, PICKS, & PREDICTIONS · Mike Check - A College Football Podcast

• Jackson: Hello everyone and welcome back to a special Halloween edition of the Mic Check Podcast. My name's Jackson, that's Davis, and we are joined by special guest Will. Hello, Will. Hello Davis. How's it going? Davis: It's going great. Y'all are looking good. I didn't get the astronaut memo. Will B: Yeah, me and Jackson we Jackson: you got it? Will B: somehow had the same idea here and went both space space themed and you went looked like Harry Potter. Davis: Harry Potter, yes sir. Jackson: Yeah, my son wanted to be a astronaut for Halloween, so I figured I would match him. And and this is actually his helmet. So it's a little a little tight in here, a little hot. I may I may take the helmet off real quick, but Davis: I'm surprised you got that off. I don't know if the listeners know but Jackson back in back in high school, they had to order him a special helmet just to get it on that noggin of his. Jackson: That's funny, Dave. You know John Davis: Ha ha ha Jackson: actually told John told that story at my rehearsal dinner, and everyone believed it. People were coming up to me. Davis: no, I know. I was I wish I was there. It was I would have laughed my ass off. Jackson: People were people coming up to me after and were like, dude, I didn't think your head was that big. And was like, Bro, it's not a real story. he was just Will B: Mm. Jackson: joking. It's they didn't actually have to order me a 5XL helmet. Will B: I have heard that story as well, which I thought was true actually. So that's kinda funny. I thought you did have a big head. Jackson: Yeah, see, that's the problem. People are believing it. And usually I don't wear hats backward 'cause I have to put on the last notch, but this one's on the second notch, so I Will B: Yeah. Jackson: I put this one backward to show everyone I w didn't have to do the last notch for this this hat. Will B: Well and Davis: It's gonna pop off by the time we're done with this podcast. Jackson: Yeah, yeah, it's hanging on for dear life, so Will B: Yeah. Jackson: maybe hatless by the time. It's actually my brother in his wife's wedding hat. And he also has a big head, so he probably special ordered him a little bigger to help us look a little better. But anyways, so Will B: In a in seventh grade I'd have a helmet that fit my head, it too small. So we had to go to a different school to grab a helmet and had a different helmet in middle school than the rest of my team. Had a matte black helmet versus everyone that's on a gloss black and I just had a extra small, extra, extra small helmet in seventh grade. Jackson: Yeah, I can't relate to that. Will B: It's from Davis: It was a white helmet, right? You had the white helmet and Will B: a black. Davis: they had the black or vice versa? Will B: No, it was like I had a matte black helmet, they had a gloss black, seventh grade, so it wasn't that bad, but just totally different color, just different shade of black 'cause I had extra, extra small so Jackson: Yeah, not me. I've never been small homeland guy, so but anyways, with all that all the shenanigans aside, we Davis: Yeah, we got a lot to cover today. We shouldn't Jackson: we do have a lot to get to. At the end of the last episode, Will was actually behind the scenes. I think your voice actually was included in some of it. I was editing most of you out because I know you didn't like I guess we weren't planning on having you on and you weren't planning on coming on, but you were behind the scenes kind of messing with us Will B: Yeah. Jackson: like live while we were doing the the blind stats resumes and Davis got a little angry and Davis has told me that he wants to do one of his own. So Davis, I'll let you have center stage for your pleas player resume. So whenever you're ready. Davis: Yeah, I think Will didn't do the game justice. I thought it was a great idea and we we started doing it and maybe it didn't live up to my expectations. So I went through and I found I think a more interesting k team comparison and I'm ready to get y'all's thoughts on it. All right. You'll say team A and team B? Alright, let's do it. Jackson: All right, well, I'll let you pick the stats. Will B: I think we start off with just the counting passing yards per game here. Davis: All right. So just pass pass yards per game. All right. Yep. So team A is at eighty one ranked and team Will B: A one. Davis: B is thirteenth ranked. And both of these teams are P four. Jackson: Well, I'll let Davis: All right. Jackson: you go again since you're you're the newbie here and Davis is doing this to Will B: Yeah. Jackson: try to teach you something. So go ahead. We'll go ahead with your next stat. Will B: What about what about the let's go with defense, We'll just do DPA for play. Defense. Davis: All right. So you have a seventy-seventh percentile for team A and a sixty first percentile for team B. Will B: Alright, I guess let's just do rush yards EPA offense. Davis: All right. team A is in the eightieth percentile, team B is in the eighty third percentile. Will B: So team Davis: All right. Will B: B's got a really good offense. What do you think, Jackson? Chi cheese one here? Jackson: Let's do defensive rushing yards per game allowed. Davis: So team A ranks thirty-third, team B ranks eleventh. All right, last stat. Will B: I guess just go another defense. Let's do I guess run well I guess the success rate one. Davis: Which which w you would think that you didn't just do this, but you did just do all this for an hour. Will B: Alright, I'll just pick one, I don't care. Just the that one, yeah. Well there you go. That's what I was looking for. Right there. So the best passing defense. Davis: No, that's that's offense. Jackson: Yeah. Will B: it's awesome, sorry. I think Davis: All right. So Team A ranks 81st in pass yards per game, 77th percentile in defensive pass EPA per play, 80th in rush offensive rush EPA per play, 33rd in rush yards allowed, and 38th in pass EPA per play. I know that was a mouthful, so I don't really want to do it for team B, but thirteenth. Sixty first percentile, eighty third percentile, eleventh, hundredth percentile. So percentiles were really high, ranks were really low as in good. Will B: Can I can I get one more Jackson: Yeah, so Will B: can I get one more pass yards allowed per game? One more defensive one? 'Cause I think I know who B is. I'm pretty confident I know who B is. If I just see that one. Mm. Actually, I'm kinda more lost than I was. Davis: And so neither one of these teams are very good at pass defense, pass yards allowed per game, rank one fourteen and one hundred. All right, so you have team I y'all talk through this. Come on. Jackson: I'm thinking here. I'm thinking. So team B is really good at passing the ball. They're and they're both both teams are terrible at defending the pass. Will B: I right off the bat that comes up wake forest to me for team B. one of the more better passing offenses and I know their defense isn't great. I thought they're off or I thought the pass yards allowed per game was actually worse, but a hundred's pretty bad. So I'm confident team B is probably wake forest if you had any push back there. Jackson: I don't have pushback. I just number one in past EP play EPA per play is it's a big statement. I don't know if Wake Force is there yet. I'm just I don't Will B: It's either that or Miami, I was thinking for number one. Yeah, I agree with that. 'Cause but I th I would have figured Miami would be number one, but I feel like they're Davis: When when we did this yesterday, Miami had the number one pass success rate. So they were definitely up there. I'd be shocked if Miami wasn't top two in this stat. But yeah, team B is not Miami. Jackson: Just don't think it's weak forest. Alright, I'm gonna say team B Davis: All right. What do you all think team A is? Jackson: Team B's either Wake Forest or Missouri. Team A, let's say All right, so defensive pass. Will B: Can Missouri throw it like that? Jackson: I don't know that they're number one, that's the thing. Will B: I think SMU is up there. Jackson: SMU struggle lately though. they had a good second half against Cal, but up until then, their offense w hasn't been what it was last year. But I'll let you give a guess for T Will. Will B: I think Jackson: So they're pretty good against the run, they're pretty good running the ball. They're not a good passing team. Davis: Third Jackson: And they're not good at defending the pass. Will B: I feel like I'm getting a big twelve vibes. I feel like BYU got h Cincinnati did some damage to their y rush yards allowed a per game. Yeah, I don't know. I'm on BY U. I guess BYU White Force are my Davis: All right, Jackson, real quick, you got anything? Jackson: To Cincinnati. Davis: All right, I'm revealing the teams. You nailed Will B: Mm. Davis: it with Wake Forest, but Jackson: Dang. He did nail it. Davis: Yeah. I guess I should have asked y'all which team y'all thought was better. I think y'all probably would have said Wake Forest here. yet Will B: Yeah. Davis: Kentucky is ranked top ten in the AP poll and Wake Forest is what, twenty first? Jackson: No, they're they're up there now. I think they're twelfth or thirteenth now. Davis: But you look at it and Kentucky's metrics don't really look great. I mean, the one thing that they've been dominant in is turnovers force. So that's the the one thing that we don't have here. but from a down to down standpoint, yeah, Kentucky's doesn't look like a top ten team. We'll see if they continue their their current pace though. Will B: I Jackson: All right. So the comment section pig pick six challenge is back for this week. You see the six games there on the right side of your screen. Reminder, this is a spread challenge. So you don't have to include the spread in your picks, but just assume or just note, I guess, that we are we are assuming that you're talking about spread when you're commenting the teams that you're choosing. And then again, don't forget the tiebreaker for this week. It is the total points in the Georgia Florida game. So We have a back to back winner in John Stafford eight eight eight four or f whatever it is, four eight eight four. he's been on a roll, he went six and no last week, so we will see if someone can can take him down this week. Speaking of John Stafford, 9884, here are is picks of the week. He actually sent me a little a little note for each of these teams. So Mississippi State first quarter under three points. So in two away SEC games, state has scored zero first quarter points. Now they are starting Billy Puckett, and I do not imagine there will be much ball movement. So that is for Mississippi State. Team total under three points in the first quarter. His second one, Colorado State, Utah State under 63.5. So Colorado State Overs have been an auto bet for me. However, I think this is a good time to zig when everyone is zagging. Under has hitten four of the last five in Utah State games, an 86% chance of rain and eight mile an hour wins. okay, and then the last one, Will B: The weather report Jackson: two lane minus ten. I know. This guy's got it all. two lane minus ten is his last one. Charlotte is terrible. Unsure why they took money, but we will take this number any day of the week. So get him while you can. This man is Will B: Yeah. Davis: All right. And I I am telling all three of those. I really like the the second one from him. like we said, it was his second week in a row. So these are his picks from from winning it last week, and then he actually went two and one the week before. So thirteen and two total in the fifteen picks that he submitted here. much better than what we're doing. and I'm looking forward to seeing if anyone can take him off the mountaintop. Will B: Yeah. What is Charlotte's record? Davis: Will, you went one and five last week. Will B: Yeah, I don't isn't Charlotte have they won a game yet? Are they the only FBS team to not win yet? Am I Davis: No, they got their first they got their first win two weeks ago when all the streaks happened. The streaks ended. Jackson: I know NIU Will B: okay. Jackson: has not won a game this year, Northern Al. Will B: I think it's yeah, you're right. You're right. Yeah, that's what I gotta mix up with. Jackson: All right, so first pick six game of the week. number 17, Florida, It's facing number three, Georgia. A little bit of a change this year. This year it is in the Mercedes-Benz stadium in Atlanta, as opposed to usually playing this game in Jacksonville. Line here is Georgia minus 11 and a half over under is 55. Davis: Yeah, these are Jackson: But what do you guys think about this? Davis: these are two teams that are coming off bys. but the the injury status is really the biggest question are question mark with both of these teams. for Florida, funny enough, both of their quarterbacks are questionable, Aaron Filo and Tremel Jones. and then for Georgia, their star safety, KJ Bolden. is also questionable. So definitely big if any of those players can't go. Vernel Brown, wide receiver from Florida, is expected to go as he's listed as probable. Jackson: is that from this injury report that just dropped a few hours ago? Davis: Yeah. Will B: Yeah. Jackson: Okay. Okay. Just wondering. yeah, so to me this this game is is interesting. Obviously you mentioned both teams coming off a bye. Georgia coming off a bye kind of scares me. It kinda reminds me of the Saban teams coming off a bye, like you know, they're playing pissed off. You have two weeks to chew on that loss, especially a loss like that to Auburn. It was a bad loss where you turned the ball over several times, just did not have a very clean game if you're Georgia. and on the other side, if you're Florida, it's like the whole opposite vibe. You come off a big road win at Texas after losing two in a row. So just completely different vibes from these two teams in the bye week. So I it just it scares me a little bit if you if you're Florida to to face a Georgia team like this. But do you guys think that Florida has fixed some of their problems? 'Cause you know, they got exposed really two weeks in a row against was it Missouri and South Carolina. Will B: Mazur and yeah. Jackson: So I know a lot of people saw them going into that Texas game and thinking this could be trouble and they started off I think t down ten zero and it seemed like it was gonna be another one of those beat downs that we had seen in the past two weeks. So what is what are y'all's opinions on on Florida and is this thing fixed or is was the Texas game more of just like a a one off thing and maybe they caught Texas at the right time? Davis: Yeah, I think to answer your question, I think that they probably caught Texas at the right time. They definitely benefited from some turnovers on from Arch Manning. that that Florida defense has been very porous, especially against the run. and I don't think that if you if you're Florida, I don't think that you can go in there expecting that Gunnar Stockton is gonna turn the ball over the way that he did against Auburn. Very uncharacteristic of him that game. Don't think we see it two times in a row. Will B: Yeah. And to Jack's your point earlier, Kirby Smart is nine and one after regular season buys. he doesn't lose often, especially when he has an extra week to prepare. actually his only loss was to Florida 'cause it's usually after the Florida game or before the Florida game. But I think I think Georgia kinda gets out to a really hot start. their outscoring opponents eighty seven to fourteen in the first quarter. If they get out to a large lead and then can kinda takeaway Florida's run script at the beginning of the game. I think it bodes well for Georgia 'cause like Davis said, I don't think there's a chance Gunnar turns it over three times this game. Davis: so Georgia's defense actually ranks forty seventh in EPA per rush. Jackson: Yeah. Davis: Auburn was actually able to kind of move the ball on the ground against Georgia, surprisingly enough. And then you look at Florida, who has kind of been a tail of two different like seasons when it comes to their their like ability to run the ball. So in Florida's first three games against FBS opponents, which is FAU, Auburn, and Ole Miss, those defense ranked 138th, 71st, and 97th in EPA per rush allowed, Florida rushed for 281, 243, and 302. Florida went three and in those games. And then in the last three games Will B: Yeah. Davis: for Florida, which is Missouri, South Carolina, and Texas. those defenses are a little bit better against the run, Jackson: A little bit. Davis: 24th, 83rd, and 10th. Jackson: Well. Davis: Florida only rushed for 42, 120, and 158. And they went one and two. it it doesn't take a rocket scientist or a astronaut to be able to tell you that if Florida can run the ball, they should set they should have success. I mean, their whole offensive identity is built on the run and it really marries up well with how they pass the ball with the amount of play action that they do as well. started off the season great from a efficiency standpoint, passing the ball because their r rushing attack was so good. Now that the rushing attack has dipped a little bit, so has the passing numbers. if Florida can run the ball here in this game, I would expect that they'll be able to hit Jackson: Yep. Davis: some deep shots to Vernel Brown and Eric Singleton and I think things could get interesting. However, if Georgia kind of fixes what went wrong against Auburn, I think that Florida could be in for a long day. Jackson: so I had all these stats I was gonna read about Florida and Georgia and I think you guys have covered most of it, and I think a lot of people know the identities of these teams. with Georgia, you have a somewhat of a typical Georgia team. They're good at stopping the run, they have a great defense, their offense is kind of built around the rush game and and Gunnar Stockton also has also been pretty solid with the exception of the Auburn game. And then you have Florida, like Davis said, they are just a run first team with with some play action and and short. To intermediate routes. they're not a team that's going to spread you out and beat you just through the air. They have to have that run game to really set up the pass. So instead of just rambling off and reading stats, I wanted to bring something else to light. Because I think if you just look at numbers here, like Kirby Smart says, if Georgia doesn't beat Georgia, the numbers say I think that Georgia should run away with this game. They should be able to run the ball, which has not been a great strength of Florida's defense of just stopping the run. So if Georgia's able to run the ball, I think Florida could be in trouble just because of Georgia's defense and how solid they've been with stopping the run and containing offenses kind of like Florida. So there's one thing that I feel like needs to be mentioned. Buster Faulkner the current offensive coordinator at Florida, was the OC at Georgia Tech. previous three years. Before that, Davis: Glad you brought this up. Jackson: before that, he actually, and I don't know if most people know this or not, but before he worked at Georgia Tech, he worked for Kirby Smart on his staff at Georgia. So this is a guy that's very familiar with the Georgia defensive scheme and how to I don't want to say beat it 'cause he was and three at Georgia Tech, but have some decent suc success against the Georgia defense. So He has never won, like I said, but he is 3-0 against the spread. He averages 24.7 points per game with that Georgia Tech offense. in his best game in 2024 versus Georgia, they lost 42 to 44. Georgia Tech had 563 total yards, and his game plan was mainly built off of like misdirection, quarterback runs. Haynes King had 110 rush yards in that game. Also a big thing in that game was time and possession. So I think in this game for Buster Faulkner in Florida, if they're able to get some some kind of misdirection plays going with either I know they don't do a lot of quarterback run, but like we mentioned, they have the bye week. So if there's ever a time to install some new offense and and have some new, I guess, looks on the offensive side of the ball, like this is the week to do it. You have two weeks to prepare for a team that you're very familiar with and for Buster Faulkner. So I think I think Florida could give them some trouble. I think they could maybe slow this game down a little bit. Georgia also runs at one of the slowest paces in the country, their offense. So I think this could be a lower scoring game, fewer possessions for each team. So I think Florida actually covers in this game. went back and forth on it a lot, but I ultimately think they can stay within the eleven and a half. Davis: Yeah. those are all very good points. I'm glad you brought up the the Buster Faulkner aspect and you you took it one step further with him actually being on the staff with Kirby. but he definitely had success at Georgia Tech against Georgia, even Jackson: Yeah. Davis: though it didn't translate to wins. I think all of them came down to the wire and one of them went to, quadruple Will B: Mm. Davis: overtime or whatever. I think that the stat that really stood out in my mind that Is the reason that I'm gonna roll with Georgia minus the points. Florida's ability to get off the field on third down. we already talked about it. Gunnar Stockton shouldn't have an uncharacteristic day turning the ball over like he did against Auburn. And then you look at Florida's defense, they rank 134th in third down conversion rate. Georgia, on the other hand, ranks fifth in the nation in third down conversion rate on offense. So that just looks like a terrible matchup. I don't think that Florida's gonna be able to get off the field. and because of that, yeah, gimme gimme Georgia minus the eleven and a half. Jackson: Yeah, and just another stat to kinda add to y to your point. you mentioned they're fifth in the nation at converting on third down Georgia. And another thing to mention is you know, Georgia's pretty good at running the ball. It seems like they get positive yardage every time they do. And they are twenty-two of twenty-six on third and one to three yards. So that's it's pretty impressive if you're Georgia. Third and one to three you're converting over eighty percent of the time. So yeah. It it's gonna be tough for Florida. That's one of the things that I think you have to put an emphasis on. and it and one of the things that maybe they they could have worked on in their bi week to get better at. But like I said, numbers wise this this points to all Georgia, but going to little vibes here and and riding with gators. Will B: Yeah. I guess one more thing to add on is Florida obviously defense isn't great. Thirty four point two points given up in the SEC. They also have six starters who have a tackle a missed tackle rate of above fifteen percent. This is not a great tackling team. I think Georgia just their tight ends, the receivers, their running backs, they have a plethora of guys that are just hard to bring down. I just I think I think Georgia like Grim Davis here is just gonna kinda manhandle them from the start. So I got Georgia minus eleven and a half. Davis: I Jackson: all right, next game number two, Ohio State Buckeyes travel to Los Angeles to face USC. Line here is Ohio State minus six and a half, over under set at fifty-one and a half. Ohio State quarterback Luke Fehey making his first career start for the Buckeyes. USC Davis: You know where he's from? Jackson: And do not know where he's from. Davis: So he's a true freshman, former three star, and he is out of Jackson: He's a three star guy. Davis: he is out of Southern California, just an hour away from the US C Will B: Yeah. Davis: campus. So he is returning home to face his hometown team in his first ever start. Jackson: Yeah, I thought it was interesting that o that Ohio State was going with him over Saint Clair, the five star guy that they got in I think it was last year's cycle. Davis: Yeah, the class before. So St. Clair's a red shirt freshman and then Fahy, a three Will B: Yeah, they never Yeah. Jackson: Yeah. Davis: star, is a true freshman and is is getting the start. So it is surprising. yeah, y you would think backup quarterback Ohio State would need to r rely on the run game, but Ohio State hadn't been great running the ball. not only is there like they don't do it that often, but they also are ninety-ninth yards per carry and fifty-sixth in rush EPA per play. So not too efficient doing it either. But this is USC's defense that we're talking about. I I don't e ev even though the rushing stats haven't been there for Ohio State, I would be shocked if Ohio State isn't able to run the ball against this USC defense and I'm not sure how hard it is to play quarterback when you're able to throw it to generational talent, Jeremiah Smith. Jackson: Yeah, I I did note that the strength on this USC defense is actually stopping the run, rushing yards allowed. They're twenty six in the country. They allow a hundred and fourteen point nine rushing yards per game. with that being said, the opponents that USC has faced is they're not anywhere close to what they will see on Saturday with Ohio State. USC got just embarrassed last week at Wisconsin. And to me, I think Wisconsin, what they did in that game that nobody has been able to do against US C is they limited the big explosive plays. They made USC go, you know, snap for snap for snap They did not allow their offense to hit those explosives and and get out and run and and hit those big plays. Davis: while USC has not given up that much yards on the ground, I I think it's more of a case of they're just so atrocious against the pass that teams just pass the ball against USC. while they're the like the cumulative yards allowed on the ground for USC's defense isn't terrible, the like underlying success rates and individual efficiencies against the run is is not as good as what just the raw numbers say. Jackson: Yeah, yeah, that makes sense. so I did see that Arthur Smith, your guy, Davis, said that whoever starts this game, I guess it'll be Faye. Now I think that's pretty public at this point, but he said that they're gonna cater the game plan to his strengths and and that they're gonna kinda talk about what style game I guess he wants to play Will B: Yeah, Jackson: and and the kind of throws that he feels comfortable making. So I think that's something to look out for. And maybe in other words, that just means get the ball to Jeremia Smith as fast as humanly possible. Davis: That's exactly what it means. It's it's crazy how every quarterback on a Ohio State's roster has the same exact strength. Jackson: Yeah. Throwing Davis: And it's number four. Jackson: the ball to number four. Yeah. Yeah. so I guess to go on the other side of this, if you're USC and you're gonna win this game, the one thing I guess positive that I'm looking at is Ohio State's pass rush has been not very good. that is the one area of their defense that has really struggled. So I think if you give my myava some time back there to find some guys, that could open some things up for USC. And if USC is able to score on this Ohio State defense, which I'm not sure that they will given the the s the dud they put up last week, but you never know with these Lincoln Riley teams. he could have something up his sleeve, something new that he's gonna bring out this week for Ohio State. And if this game gets in the 20s, I think it could get a little nerve-wracking for Ohio State because like I said, the starting a true freshman quarterback on the road for his first start, things could get a little dicey if USC's offense looks like the US C offense of early on in the season. Will B: Yeah, I think wanna add up to the fact that USC went for a whopping negative eighteen rushing yards last week against Wisconsin with Sacks included. that's that's tough when you get when you have you're not even positive and rushing game there, but like you said, if they can keep it at least close late in the fourth quarter, you can make it a little ugly. Again, you said Ohio State's past rush hasn't been great. USC if they can just get in third manageables, actually convert fifty over fifty percent of the third downs. I think if you can just keep the drive going and limit turnovers and just keep the game close and you can I don't think you're gonna win the game, but think Lincoln Riley is he's coaching for a little of his job right here. this could cool off the seat real quick and a loss here, I think your season's basically over in terms of playoffs. So I think it's gonna be close, but I think I state pulled it off by like a field goal here. So I got US C covering. Jackson: Yeah, so for me I think Ohio State's talent is too much at the end of the day. we haven't seen a lot out of this Fahid guy. We haven't seen much at all from him, but I would have to imagine that he's as good or a little bit better than some of the quarterbacks that USC's faced this season. and he's got so much talent around him that Ohio State offense is one of the best in the country, They average thirty nine point three points per game. They have the best player in the country in Jeremiah Smith. So I just think ultimately that's gonna be too much for USC. I could see this game being within a touchdown, but I'll be safe here and I'm just gonna go Ohio State to to cover the six and a half. Davis: Yeah. Ohio State should cover here. Lincoln Riley's five and fifteen against ranked teams. I I expect Fayhey to have a fine game. Jackson: Yeah, Faye's just gonna have to not lose the game. the talent on the offense is is enough to where you don't have to necessarily go out and like win the game, but you just have to take care of the ball and not lose your teeth team the game and I think Ohio State should be fine if they do that. Will B: I will also add in that USC's defensive coordinator is Gary Patterson who's known to be a very scheme heavy guy. I think if you're playing a true freshman for your first start, first real start, I don't think this is kind of the scheme you want to go against on the road night game. I know I guess US C's crowd isn't really a factor. It'll probably be half full even if it's Ohio State. It might be might be fifty fifty. It might be a a a Ohio State takeover, but this is a night game. It's first starting Halloween. It's probably a we'll see if we get things get scary though a little bit, but we'll see. Jackson: Yeah. Spooky season. Spooky season for the for the true freshman with Gary Patterson. Davis: Are you taking USC with the points? Will B: Yeah, I'm taking a high state one in by three or four, so twenty four, twenty one would be my guess. Jackson: Alright, next game number one, Miami travels to Chapel Hill to face North Carolina. Line here is Miami minus fourteen and a half over under fifty two and a half. I thought this I thought this line was fourteen. We sent it to Millish. I Millish snuck the half in there, but anyways. yeah, Miami's been rolling. They have not really had a hiccup at all except for that one game against Florida State that went into overtime. I mean, really, other than that, they've just been smoking teams. North Carolina comes off a tough loss last weekend in overtime against Syracuse 31 to 30. what do you guys got for this one? Davis: Yeah, Miami has actually lost five straight in Chapel Hill. We said on the last pod, all the winners from the prior week eventually became losers the next week. Miami was one of my winners last week. We'll see if they break that that curse on Halloween. Jackson: it I think the big issue for me is that North Carolina struggles to run the ball a lot. They're hundred and sixth in EPA per rush and they're eightieth in EPA per pass. And, you know, Miami has one of the better rush defenses in the country. So I just don't see how Davis: First in rush yards allowed and first in EPA per rush. You're you're just reading off my my my notes right now. Jackson: Right. So to me, how how are you going to sustain drives if you're North Carolina? Like I just don't see how they stay on the field. And if they're not on the field, that means Darry Minsa and Malachi Tony are on the field. So I just think Miami is way too much for this North Carolina team. I understand it's a night game, it's the biggest game of the season for North Carolina, but I just this offense scores way too many points and fourteen points is not a lot for for what they've been The numbers they've been putting up. So I like Miami Will B: Yeah. Jackson: big in this game. I think maybe UNC can keep it close in the first half. but in the end I think I think Miami pulls out late and and covers by more than four. Davis: Yeah, give me Miami too. Will B: Think that Davis: North Carolina's gonna be so one dimensional, not being able to run the ball. North Carolina's gonna be in obvious pass situations. Miami ranks thirteenth in sacks per game and should be able to tee off on North Carolina's quarterback Billy Edwards in these obvious passing down situations. give me Miami big. Will B: Miami is fourth in time of possession, which is pretty interesting for a team that scores as many points as they do as quick as they do. You would think it'd probably be more balanced out that they after they score they immediately kick it off. North Carolina is a hundred and twenty eight, nationally in time of possession. So when you like Jackson was saying, the you give Mensa the ball like if you if you start off with a three and out, I think if Miami starts with the ball and gets a touchdown and you get a three and out, I think it's already over. I think this is blowout. I think this is a thirty point game and I don't think it close. the only the only slight you can do is maybe Miami is looking ahead to Notre Dame next week. Jackson: Yeah, I was gonna mention that. they do have Notre Dame next week and really both those teams biggest game of the season, so it could be a letdown spot. I just I think fourteen points is like nowhere near enough. Like that should be the first half spread. Will B: Yeah. I was thinking it should be twenty twenty points. of this game. Jackson: Yeah, something like that. one I guess positive thing about UNC, they they do st kind of start fast. Bob Petrino has done a decent job of of scheming this offense to score some points in in early parts of these games, but in the second half they have not been so good, or I guess late in games. So against Clemson they blew a seventeen three lead against Notre Dame. They only had eighty nine second half yards. They went on a forty forty-one minute scoring drought against Duke. And then last week Syracuse outscored them 21 to 10 in the final 11 minutes of regulation and OT. and then the last stat I had was UNC has been outgained in every single game this season except for the first game against TCU and Ireland in the rain. So when I read all those, I was like, well, how in the world were they like winning games? Well, they're holding teams to field goals. they're condensing the game. They're the whole Belichick scheme of concede underneath and then tighten up in the red zone. teams are just taking longer to to score on them and and they're holding them to field goals in the red zone and I guess sometimes North Carolina's able to turn that into touchdowns for them on the other end. So they're just making the game shorter and against Miami I think that's gonna be hard to do with the explosiveness that they have. So yeah. All that to say, I I really like Miami in this game. Will B: Yeah. Also to add on that Minsa is completing almost eighty two percent of his passes, which I don't think I've ever seen that before. He has twenty two touchdown passes to only thirty eight incompletions on the season through seven games. I think he's the Heisman and I think I think Bill Belichick does have a game plan for Tony. I don't think Tony goes for twelve catches for three touchdowns like he did against Pitt. But I think Minsa can spread their ball around enough where it's still not that doesn't matter. I think Bill Belichick does a good job of taking away best players. He did that in the NFL fairly well in terms of taking away the other team's best player. Jackson: So UNC had some D V guys banged up last week. I'm not sure if they're playing this week. I've not seen the injury report yet, but that will be Something to look out for for that defense. But All right. Number six, Utah. Going on the road to play Cincinnati. Line here is Utah minus six and a half. Over under set at fifty six and a half. Well, what you thinkin' for this one? You you're our you're our specialist Davis: Yeah. Well both these teams are off very big wins. Utah gets the com comeback win against Houston. Cincinnati gets the big upset that Jackson called Jackson: Yeah. Davis: over Texas Tech. Part of the season has been, you know, the hangover games. We'll see which team the hangover affects them less and can pull out a win here. Jackson: Yeah, so Utah is now in first alone in the Big Twelve. They have won thirteen straight and that is the nation's longest win streak. what else what else we got for this one? Will B: I would just want to add that Utah is an elite run defense, ranking eighth nationally, while Cincinnati actually is the eighth in terms of yards per game, do y'all know when there's been a a a matchup between a top ten rushing offense versus a top ten rushing defense? What's the record for every last two years? It's happening nine times. Davis: I'll go six and three on the side of the better defense. Jackson: Go seven and w or seven two. Will B: Actually nine and the defense swims every game through nine games. So Jackson: Well. Will B: I think that bodes well. I will say I think three of those matchups were group of five, but the other six were all power four. I mean two years ago I think a big matchup in the playoffs was Boise State against Penn State and it wasn't even close. we've seen it with Tennessee before at Ohio State it's also worth noting that since the Big Twelve started in nineteen ninety six, no unranked Big Twelve team has ever beaten back to back top ten teams before and Cincinnati has a chance to do that. Jackson: yes, Utah's offense looked really quiet last week against Houston, especially in the first half. David S and I talked about it on the pod. I mean it was three to zero, which I know there were several scoring opportunities, but you know, turnovers here, turnover on downs there. I mean, just a vr for a variety of reasons there wasn't a lot of scoring. But I think for Cincinnati, just getting Utah off schedule is a big thing, maybe throwing some blitz packages at him, disrupting the run game a little bit. we we saw Devin Dampier last week kind of take it over with his legs, he had over seventy five percent of the team's total yards rushing and throwing. So to me, if you're Cincinnati, you have to just contain Dampier. And and try to stop the run as best you can. And and if you can do that, I think that could get them rattled a little bit because a lot of his game relies on his legs and his ability to run the ball. So if you can make Devin Dampier a little bit one dimensional, you have a better chance to win this game for Cincinnati. And and yeah, I I I like Cincinnati. I like them to cover the six and a half. I don't necessarily like them to win. I just think Utah struggled in back to back weeds. Colorado kinda got to them a little bit and and Houston figured something out against them as well. So, you know, that Houston game was f was a one point game until the last few minutes of the game. So Utah's offense has set a little bit of a standstill. And going on the road against a team like Cincinnati, who just put up thirty seven on Texas Tech, is not where you want to be if you're Utah. So I just I think Cincinnati keeps it close. Not gonna call the upset. I like to stay within six months. Will B: kind of add on to you talk about if Cincinnati can just keep running the ball and stay at the sticks. so JC French when Cincinnati faces seven yards or more on third down, JC Finch is thirteen to fifteen. So he's eighty seven percent completes the percentage on third and longs and ten for nineteen on third and mediums, just four to six yards. So he's you would think a heavy rushing attack would need to stay on the sticks, but Cincinnati also has a really good chance to convert those third and longs if they're completed passes at that high clip. Davis: I like Utah here. Will B: I also like Utah here, after all after I everything it said. Jackson: all right, last thing I wanted to add, another stat that I had pulled up here. So you mentioned the rushing offense against the rushing defense thing, Will. So Coltab last week against Texas Tech's top ten rushing defense ran for sixteen carries and a hundred and seventy three yards. So I know a lot of that was explosives, but I just think he's a hard guy to contain. So we'll leave it that. Will B: Yeah. Jackson: That's that's all I got for this one. I I Will B: And I guess to caveat that point, it's probably that status set about nine and is based on end of season. So I bet the that Cincinnati game has taken Texas Tech out of the top ten after that kind of performance. But yeah, that's a good point. Jackson: We're taking Utah out of the top ten after after Saturday night too. So Will B: Yeah. Jackson: All right, South Carolina travels to Norman to face Oklahoma. Line here is Oklahoma minus five and a half over under set at forty-four and a half. So these two teams are both kind of riding high right now. South Carolina seems like they've maybe figured something out. They come off two really good wins against Florida and Tennessee, and then Oklahoma kind of showed something with their offense last week against Mississippi State. So what do you guys think of this one? And do you think both these teams can be labeled as like officially back? do you Oklahoma's offense fixed is South Carolina a legit contender now, or is this just some fluky games and and we're gonna get back to reality here pretty soon? Will B: I do not think Oklahoma's offense, I mean, is back in any way. they're a hundred and fourteenth in total offense per game, hundred and twenty eighth in rushing offense, they just can't run the ball. when they're unable to run the ball and you go into passing down, Dylan Stewart PFF grade last two weeks into suspension has been ridiculous. He's in the nineties both games, or his last two games having two sacks and three force fumbles. If if if Oklahoma cannot run the ball and has to pass the ball, I think Dylan Stewart's able to kind of tee off and I kinda trust Lenore Sellers right now. I think he's playing his best ball the season. I would take South Carolina and I might even consider the upset here. Davis: This is one of these games where if you tell me the turnover margin for whatever team, I can tell you with a hundred percent confidence who wins this game. And you just dig Jackson: Well, thank you. Davis: into like both of these teams and what they've done when they turn the ball over, and it's a clear indicator of if they win or not. So versus FBS opponents, South Carolina is three and when they win or tie the turnover margin. They are and three whenever they lose. Go into Oklahoma. Oklahoma is three Jackson: two and three. Davis: and when they win or tie the turnover battle. And they're one and four when Jackson: I think it's probably more good. Davis: they lose. and that one win Jackson: Or Davis: that came from losing the turnover battle was against New Mexico where they squeaked by with a fourteen six win. So this game can really go either way. will come down to who can force turnovers and who can limit the mistakes. But you give Jackson: And statements. Davis: me South Carolina with five and a half additional points, Jackson: Okay. Davis: and I like that. so give me South Carolina with the Jackson: Yeah. Davis: points and I'll go Oklahoma with the outright win. Jackson: Yeah, I'm kinda with you on the points thing. for this game I was taking whoever I could get points with. I think it's gonna be a lower scoring game. I know I mentioned South Carolina and Oklahoma's offense. Really the team as a whole kind of taking a turn, but offense for Oklahoma specifically. So I know it was Mississippi State, but you know, they ran for 1804 184 yards. On forty one carries, which is not great. They had four hundred and sixty seven yards of total offense. Prior to that game, they were averaging three hundred and eleven yards of total offense. they scored twenty-three points, which is higher than their average. They were eight of seventeen on third down, and Material was twenty-two of twenty-nine for two eighty-three and two touchdowns. So I get it Sissippi State's not exactly the best defense, but still Oklahoma has not done that against not even New Mexico this year. And I don't want to discredit their defense because I know We talked about how good they are last week, but still they're a G six team and and they only scored fourteen points against New Mexico. So maybe they're they're hitting a little bit of a a stride, turning the corner a little bit and and getting things rolling. South Carolina, on the other hand, is also getting things going. And I think a lot of this has to do with Lenore Sellers and the game plan that they are implementing around him. Last week against Tennessee we talked about in the recap show how they are really scheming these RPO shorter passes, quarterback run game for him and that's really opened things up. So in the first four games against Kent State, Towson, Mississippi State, Alabama, he passed for 833. So that's four games. In the last three games, he passed for seven fifteen and he rushed for two seventy-five, which is thirty-five more yards than he had rushed for in the first four games. also in the first four games, he had seven touchdowns and four picks. In the last three games, he had ten touchdowns and one interception. So he has just turned into the kind of Lenore Sellers that we all were hoping and expecting he would be. he had a hundred and forty seven rush yards against in a loss against Kentucky, against Florida in the win. He was twenty three of thirty-five for two seventy-nine and four touchdowns. And then last week against Tennessee, he had two two ten passing and ninety six yards rushing to go along with two touchdowns. So I think they found a little bit of something with Lenora Sellers. I think he is playing as best as he's played all season. Really, his whole career. So for that reason, you give me five and a half, like David said, I'll take South Carolina. they're hot right now, and I think they'll be able to to score on this Oklahoma defense. It's a different kind of it's not your typical offense that you see if you're Oklahoma. I mean, Lenore Sellers, as we mentioned, is super athletic. He can make plays with his legs, and it's just this offense has a lot of different like they can attack you in a in a variety of ways. So I think it'll be tougher for this Oklahoma defense to contain them and slow them down. Will B: Yeah. I think it's also worth noting that South Carolina just played a very good defense in Tennessee's in terms of D line. they gave up a a good amount of sacks and I still think they were able to overcome it just based on Lenore Sellers just dynamic play. And like you mentioned, Jack, in these these last two games which have both been against ranked opponents, he's thrown for almost five hundred yards, five touchdowns and hundred and sixteen on the ground with another three. So he's playing his best ball Jackson: Sure. Will B: of his career, like you said. Davis: Yep, said it last week. Helps when you have two freaks on either side of the ball in Lenore Sellers and Dylan Stewart. Jackson: So I guess well, are you taking South Carolina too on the points? Will B: Yeah, I'm taking South Carolina to whim as well. Jackson: Okay, so we're all in South Carolina, so if you're Oklahoma, how do you win this game? Davis: You don't turn the ball over? Jackson: Other than I guess Will B: Four tribal groups. Yeah. Jackson: turn yeah, okay. I was I was gonna say I think the basic answer is try to contain Davis: No, I really think Will B: When the turn mark. Jackson: Lenore Sellers. Go ahead. Davis: Yeah, I really think that it's whoever wins a turnover battle. Either one of these teams can just have the most obscure boneheaded turnovers. And we've seen Oklahoma, that's really the only way they could score, is defense special teams and putting their offense in very good field position. Which South Carolina has not been able to necessarily turn it down all the way. yeah. I comes down to turnovers. Jackson: Yeah, I agree. Especially you don't want to give Mateer in that offense a shorter field. you know, it's already a struggling offense, so y you definitely don't want to give them any gifts in terms of field position when it comes to like you said, turning the ball over. That's that's certainly could give them a shorter field to work with and make scoring a little bit easier for Oklahoma. well. Will B: I was gonna add that Oklahoma is minus seven in the turnover margin, including fifteen turnovers, which is a hundred and twenty-ninth the country, while South Carolina is minus three, so ninety-seven. So both teams huge issues with turnovers, so we'll see who who can avoid the Jackson: Alright. So next game, number twenty two, Arizona travels to Lubbock to face number thirteen, Texas Tech. Line here is Texas Tech minus three and a half over under fifty-four and a half. What what do we got for this one guys? Davis: We had Arizona on the Will B: Yeah, this is a Davis: blind comparison last episode and Arizona's stats really surprised me and Jackson, I think. I think I was guessing Jackson: Yeah. Davis: like Notre Dame and S who I I don't remember who I guessed, but it was a team that was in the top ten and when it was revealed that Jackson: Mm. Davis: it was Arizona I took a step back and tried to reevaluate it because I didn't realize that their defense was playing as well as it, the numbers indicate. I think Arizona's a slipped on. And Texas Tech, you know, throughout the season we've said they're overrated, they're overrated, they're overrated, and then they start playing a little bit better. And then the second that we or at least me, the second that I think that they've kind of turned the corner. they drop a bad loss to Cincinnati. So two teams Jackson: Sound it. Davis: going on two very different trajectories. You have Noah Fafita, Arizona's quarterback who's playing some of his best ball of his career, and his career's been about what feels like six years long. And then you have Will Hammond from Texas Tech who is really struggling. Jackson: Let's just Davis: And you can see why Jackson: have that. Davis: Texas Tech tried to bring in Brennan Soresby. Will B: Yeah. To add on to Noah Fida's six year starting, this is actually gonna be his forty second consecutive start. if they kinda keep it going all the way to maybe a playoff earth they can maybe reach that fiftieth mark, which would be there's not many players Jackson: Thank you. Will B: in college football that have reached fifty starts, especially for one school. Jackson: So to me, like Davis mentioned earlier, Arizona surprised me a little bit with that blind resume thing. they were a little bit better, defensively than I expected them to be. we all know about their offense and know Fafita. He's been there for it seems like a million years. their passing attack is incredible. but the one or one of the flaws that I found on their defense was their rushing defense. West Virginia actually ran for three hundred plus on Arizona, so That's one thing that Texas Tech and Jacoby Williams will probably try to exploit. Tech's offense ranks number ten in SP plus and averages 192.7 rush yards per game. So look for tech to kind of keep this game on the ground offensively. I I don't think they want to put Will Hammond in passing situations that did not seem to work to their advantage last week. And just, you know, generally speaking, if they can run the ball and keep it out of his hands, I think that's kind of what they want to do. we've all talked about how we're not super high on Hammond. you know, they were obviously supposed to get Sor V kinda missed on that, so they're kind of I guess stuck with their QB two for the year. So I think any chance tech can get to keep the ball on the ground, they will gladly take that. and I think that plays right into the weakness of this Arizona defense. On the flip side of that, Texas Tech has allowed 266 passing yards per game. that is not very good. And then you're going against Fafita, who completes 73.8% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and three picks. So this is kind of, I think, gonna be a battle of of style. like I mentioned with tech, you're gonna want to slow the game down, keep it on the ground, whereas Arizona is gonna want to air this thing out. They're gonna want to keep the ball. in the air and moving as fast as they can. So it'll be interesting to see who wins the like time possession, control the pace of the game battle. But to me, I think the talent on Texas Tech, we talk time and time again about how much money they spend on that roster. I just think that's gonna be too much to I think they understand the importance of not getting a second loss at home. Honestly, this could be a a Big 12 eliminator. terms of playoff conversation. And and tech being at home, I like them to get the win here. So if I get burned on the three and a half, I get burned, but I think tech wins and I will say that they cover minus three and Will B: To add to your time of possession, it's Arizona's thirty two minutes per game to Texas Tech's twenty eight. So there's a almost a four minute discrepancy. And then the third down conversions, Arizona is converting fifty four point seven percent, while Texas Tech gets behind Jackson: Easy because Will B: early and only converts about thirty eight point four percent. So huge discrepancy in third downs. I think if Arizona can just keep the chains moving and just have on to the hold on to the the ball a while, I think they can score enough points and their defense is actually pretty good. So I have Baron. Jackson: yeah. Yeah, I think so I just rattled off about both offenses. I think the key to win this game for both these team is make the other offense do what they don't want to do. Like if you're Arizona, make Texas Tech throw the ball. Take away the run game and make Will Hammond throw it. And if you're Tech, take away the pass game and and make them slow it down and keep the ball on the ground. So I just think it's whoever's defense is gonna step up and be able to do that. I think both these defense have are capable to do it, but yeah, I I I'm torn on this game. Arizona really shocked me on the blind resume thing. They really kinda made me look more into them and and I guess Will B: Yeah. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: p take them a little more seriously. They have played a pretty weak schedule, but yeah. Will B: Yeah. Just to add on the schedule part, they played Cincinnati earlier in the year and Arizona won thirty four to seven. And Jackson: Yeah, they did smoke them. Will B: Texas Tech just kinda got ran out of the gym and not only is Texas Tech bad Yeah. Davis: That was this month too. So it wasn't like it was seven or eight weeks ago. That was this month. Jackson: Well. Will B: Yeah, I guess it was just three weeks ago. Yeah. But Texas Tech is a hundred and twenty six yards passing yards per game allowed. So not just bad, just one of the worst. Jackson: Yeah, so Will B: and they're going against one of the best. So a real strength versus weakness here. Davis: Yeah. And this is one of those games where there's so many different angles that you can look at and try to dissect which stats benefit who and and where is their, leans Jackson: Which is fair to have been. Davis: and benefits and advantages. But I wanted to take it in a different direction and look at it more from a macro betting standpoint. Because this game actually opened up at Texas Tech minus seven and a half and was bet down to three and a half. Jackson: One. Davis: Currently, that three and a half number has 50% of the money on either side. So it truly is a equilibrium number there. so that seven and a half I would have liked a little better, or I would have liked a lot better. but with that three and a half number, that's interesting enough because in games featuring two ranked teams since twenty seventeen, the home team Is 205 and 149 against the spread. So 58.6%. And you take that one step further, and when the home team is ranked better, the home team is 98 and 63 against the spread. Jackson: And both table is right. Davis: So 60.9%. And then if I want to go one step further and deep dive it Jackson: well. Davis: even more, when the better ranked team Is a single digit favorite or an underdog, they are sixty one and thirty five against the spread. So sixty three point five percent. All of these macro level takes and trends benefit Texas Tech. so give me Arizona. Will B: I have Arizona as well, but I was wondering if Davis thinks that Arizona will win this game outright. Davis: Yeah, give me give me Arizona outright. Arizona's one of the hotter teams. I saw some stat that in the month of October, so the last three or four games, I believe, for Arizona, they rank seventh in the power four in offensive success rate and sixth in the power four in defensive success rate. So that team's humming and you can try to discredit the Strength of schedule. Well, they've played the same damn teams that Texas Tech has played and they've done better against those teams than Texas Tech has done. So yeah, I like Arizona in this game. I think Noah Fafita has a big game. Jackson: Can Davis: it's in Lubbock, but yeah, I've I've kind of Jackson: Okay. Davis: withered off of the Texas Tech train. At so at some point you gotta prove to me that the talent that you were supposed to have is the talent that you have. And the first few weeks I kept saying, they'll turn it on, the talent's there, they'll turn it on, the talent's there. And they never have. Will B: Yeah. I also want to add on I think they're gonna win outright and their three of the last four games after this game is are at home, including hosting number six Utah. I think there can be a doomsday scenario. I mean two weeks ago we were thinking Big Twelve could have three teams. I think if Arizona wins this game and maybe can upset Utah, you're looking at another scenario where you're only getting one team in, the Big Twelve and it's gonna be the champion with three potentially three one loss teams, the Big Twelve again. So they're gonna go run to the exact same scenario with Arizona, BYU and Utah all beating each other. One one loss teams there. But yeah, Davis: Yeah, and I reserve the Will B: I got Arizona winning Davis: I reserve the right to change every single one of my picks once I see what John Stafford Jackson: Yeah. Davis: comments. Just gonna leave that out there. Jackson: Alright. Moving on to some other notable games. any you guys want to touch on here? Will B: I just wanna say I think Texas similar to John Stafford's first quarter pick, I think Texas will end that game early. I doubt Mississippi State gets above ten points in the game. I'd be shocked. Jackson: Minnesota at Indiana is an interesting one. Will B: That's our box. Jackson: That is where College Game Day is. Will B: I think that Indiana just rolls. there's some questions about Josh Hoover's health, but I think that it's just gonna be too much. I believe the spread is twenty points, which is kinda crazy to think college game days going to a a game with a twenty point spread, but I think they should have went to Ohio State US C night game, even though sands are but Davis: Yeah, you mentioned the quarterback health. Jackson: Yeah. Another another fun one Davis: we now officially have Dante Moore not coming back for the rest of the season. Kamario Jackson: Yeah. Davis: Taylor had surgery on his turf toe. He's out for the season. Jackson: Yeah. Davis: Like you mentioned, Julian Saiyan, there's a good chance that he doesn't play the rest of the season. so there's been a lot of quarterback injuries, which is unfortunate for the sport. Will B: Yeah, for sure. Jackson: Yeah. Another fun one, Wisconsin at Iowa. Wisc Iowa actually coming off a loss against Minnesota in a rivalry game. Wisconsin coming off that big win against USC. That one will be a some would say boring, definitely low scoring game between two just kind of old school Big Ten teams. and then you have ranked Northwestern playing unranked Oregon. Who would have thought we'd be saying that? in August but it's one if you're Oregon that you gotta be careful with I think you'll learn a lot about Oregon in this game. Like are they gonna throw in the towel, are they gonna kinda be done for the season? With the weather offense looked it's it's pretty discouraging. But and then you got on the other side you have Northwestern who's having their best season in in ages. So If Oregon goes forward four after that game, I think things could get hectic with that program and and maybe even continue on forward to recruiting in the off season. So Davis: And they've already fired the OC too. Jackson: interesting game for Oregon. Alright. Little ATS pick six review. Man, it's tough doing this with three. Alright, let's see if I can do it. So Davis and Will are on Georgia, I'm on Florida. me and Davis are on Ohio State, Will's on USC, we're all in Miami. Davis and Will are on Utah, I'm on Cincinnati, we're all on South Carolina, and Davis and Will are on Arizona, and I'm on Texas Tech. Davison and Will are together on a lot of these picks. I'm on an island on some of these, so you guys will have similar records. Maybe that Bowman gene is is running strong. Will not a good sign for you. Will B: Well, I went five last I went one in five last week, so I don't know if that's a not Jackson: Nice. Yeah. Yeah, I'm feeling good on the other side of the bonus here. look to go six and this week. But alrighty, we will move on to week eight plays of the week. Dave is your first. Who you got? Davis: Yeah. I like USF minus seven and a half. I'll try to keep this short and sweet. USF ranks ninth in pressure rate, while UAB's O line ranks one thirty eight out of one thirty eight in pressures allowed, and they're without their starting center, who is their best O lineman. Michael Van Buren for USF's been playing better. I think USF covers here. Jackson: Alright for my first one I'm gonna go to Wake Forest team total over thirty. Their offense has been rolling. I was surprised to see this was only thirty. And O Virginia's a little bit better defensively. They held SMU to twenty three. Duke last week only scored nineteen against them, but that those offenses are not anywhere close to what Wake Forest has has been putting out on the field these last few weeks. So I think thirty's a low number. I'll take them team total over thirty. Will B: I think this will just be a low scoring game between Oklahoma and South Carolina. I'm taking the team under. Jackson: One thing. Will B: I think there's gonna be turnovers on both sides that just bog down the game, but I still think that South Carolina will Jackson: Yeah. Will B: come on top, but I'm taking the under. Jackson: Alright, Next play well. Will B: Miami over thirty three and a half points. like we mentioned, I don't think North Carolina s has a chance in this game and that Miami should get up early and often. I think that'll be in the forties for them easily. Jackson: Alright, for my next one, I'm going Florida State minus six. this really is more about Clemson than it is Florida State. Clemson's just looked terrible. Like I feel they're always in the college football news at this time of the year just because of Dabo's lack or inability to adapt and use the transfer portal. kind of those rumors or those facts kind of started circulating again last week after their loss to Virginia Tech and I don't think Florida State's offense is as bad as maybe some people think. They put up thirty-five against Miami, put up twenty against Liverpool, thirty-eight against Virginia, and thirty-six on Bama. So I think Florida State could get out and score a little bit. This game is at home. I know Clemson's defense is solid, but their offense has been terrible. I think Clemson has only thrown for sorry, I should have checked this before, but I think the number is three passing touchdowns all season. So I just don't think they'll be able to keep up. I like Florida State too. Get out a little bit, get some points and cover the six. Davis: Fun fact about Clemson is their special teams and defense have more points than their offense. Jackson: Okay, that's actually I'm gonna push back on that because I listened to another show, shout out to Cumber Three Guys. Someone read that stat on there and they actually pushed back and said that was wrong because they were counting special teams points as like extra points. Which that's not that's an offensive Davis: Yeah, those are special teams points. I I I said special teams. Jackson: point. That is an offensive point. How many points do their offense score? Six or seven? Seven. Davis: either way they're the only whether you Jackson: When you cast Davis: count it or not, they're the only team that's under fifty percent, which is the worst number. Jackson: Okay. Fair. Fair. All right. Next play. Davis: All right. Give me Iowa minus three and a half over Wisconsin. I think Iowa out Iowa's Wisconsin. All right. Ne next play, give me the Texas first quarter total over seven. So John Safford did Mississippi State under three for the the first quarter. I'm doing Texas over. And so I really only need one touchdown here to push. And Texas has scored at least seven in five straight games dating back to the Ohio State game. And then they've scored more than seven in the first quarter of three of the last five games. and then you you take a look at how Sark has like had that offense moving. While that offense has not been as good as what we all thought, it's still been a very good offense from the scripted drives. Texas actually ranks. fourth in the SEC and success rate on scripted scripted drives alone, which is actually the biggest delta between scripted versus non-scripted. So Texas offense struggles as we know, but they don't actually struggle in the scripted drives. And coincidentally, Mississipp State is terrible versus scripted drives. And then Also terrible, not scripted. So yeah, I like Texas here. Over seven in the first quarter. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, a Mississippi State that gave up twenty three to Oklahoma last week. So I I like that one, Davis. Alright, for my next one, I'm going to go Oklahoma State team total over thirty-three. just another offense that has just been kind of on a roll. Like Will B: Yeah. Jackson: let me just read you the last few games of offense that Oklahoma State has or how many points Oklahoma State has scored the last few games. So they scored fifty-seven last week, thirty-two, forty-two, forty-one, fifty-nine, thirty-nine. In the first week, which doesn't make any sense to anybody, they scored 10 against Tulsa. So they have scored over 33 in every game except for the first game against Tulsa. They're playing Iowa State. I don't think Iowa State's defense is good enough to contain them to their second lowest point total of the season. I understand it's on the road, but still, this offense is one of the most explosive offenses right now in college football. I think Oklahoma State clears 33 pretty easily. Will B: just flat out going, Oregon minus three and a half versus Northwestern. like Jackson mentioned earlier, you kinda wonder what the psyche is of Oregon now. They have three three losses, Jackson: Just yeah, so for yet. Will B: their playoff hopes are gone, their quarterback's been ruled out, they've fired their offensive coordinate already. I just think that Oregon, based on like on three reporting, has a fifty one million dollar roster. versus Northwestern's twenty-three million dollar roster. I mean, over double the roster. if Northwestern can go into Oregon, 'cause this is Jackson: No, you don't like this. Will B: at Oregon and beat Oregon, Jackson: It's moving. Will B: you're looking at a I guess a a huge like shift in how we view rosters going forward when teams like Northwestern in Indiana two years ago and I guess last year Jackson: Fuck. Will B: can develop a team and go in to win against big programs against Oregon. I think there's gonna be a major discussion where and I Phil Knight is like pulling all his money, Jackson: No. Will B: but I think he's probably gonna s really start to question how much money actually matters 'cause I assume Oregon's probably paying a premium on these players. And if you were talking Jackson: Yeah. Will B: isn't and isn't it isn't as good as Jackson: With it, yeah. Will B: a team that's half the money, then I think there's gonna be a real a real shock to the N. I. L system 'cause I think it's the playing field's actually evened out a little bit and money isn't as important as it was thought when NIL is about to go Jackson: Hell's not. Will B: in. So we'll see. So I think we're again just based on talent on him winning this game. Jackson: All right. Moving on. Two upset check. Davis, you're first. Who you got? Davis: Yeah, I'll give an explanation of the game for those that are new. Every week we pick a P4 team to get upset. that team has to have Jackson: Yeah. Davis: two fifty odds or higher on the money line. if we get the upset picked correctly, then we get the points. what whatever the money line is, that was what the points are. And then if they don't win outright. We get 10 points for each point that they covered by. I read off the rules every single week and I still struggle to explain it. with that being said, give me Auburn over Ole Miss. Ole Miss Will B: I'm gonna Davis: has a lot of injury issues right now. Keywon Lacey, their star running back, is out. They've been a different team when they haven't been able to run the ball. and it's also Halloween. Let's hope for some some crazy things to happen in Oxford this week. Jackson: You said it's Halloween. Why not go with the team that is called the Orange? I'm taking Syracuse. Syracuse's offense has kind of had a little bit of a resurgence lately. They scored 31 last week against UNC, scored 26 on Louisville, 25 on Virginia, 42 against Pitt. I'm sorry, 42 against Yukon. SMU, on the other hand, has been struggling lately. I've mentioned it several times throughout this episode and in previous episodes. They turned it up last week and ended up scoring fifty nine against Cal, a Cal team that we all know is is pretty terrible. the last week few weeks before the Cal game, and even in the first half of that game, against Virginia they scored twenty three. against Boston College they scored sixteen. Against Missouri State they scored thirty four and only one by ten. I just think they've struggled a little more than people have been paying attention to, so anything can happen in that dome up there in in Syracuse, New York. So I'll I'll take a flyer, I'll go to Syracuse to pull off the wind this week and get it done. Will B: Alright, I got Arkansas over Missouri. It's not on this list here, but they are plus three hundred. They're ten point underdogs at home against Missouri. Both teams are coming off a bye week, but the Missouri is terrible in the red zone. Only converted fourteen touchdowns out of twenty eight opportunities. It's towards the bottom of FPS. I also with it being a night game, this is Arkansas's first time hosting the SEC night game since twenty twenty four. I think this gives the Arkansas Faithful a chance to probably change out the paper bags for Halloween mass Saturday night. And I'm going to Arkansas twenty-seven twenty-four. I think if they can just not turn it over is Arkansas's been improving Jackson: I can say Will B: They won last week against Van Dy to kinda show they weren't the worst team in the SEC and they were up ten points late in the four third quarter against Tennessee and just gave it away. They also had two red zone mishaps in the first quarter, which could have been a lot of big change and momentum in that and they had a chance to win that game. So I'm going to Arkansas, twenty seven twenty four against Mizzou. Jackson: All right, so time for the weekly fantasy draft. Davis: Another big win. I'm up six and two on Jackson: It's not looking good for me. Davis: the season. Hey, well at least you have Will here. Maybe he can help you draft. I I do wanna say last week I said Malachi Tony could go for fifty. Will B: Yeah, I'll do my best. Davis: I undersold it. He went for fifty-three. Jackson: Alright, Bringing on I come on let's let's draft. We're gonna do we usually try to pre draft so we have a little bit of an idea and it's not so choppy when we record it, but we're going on the fly. I know my guys. I need to win every week and we're about to go straight chalk here. I've Davis: Well, that's what she should have been doing. Jackson: had some guys I've been saving. Yeah, well I was trying to save some guys here and there. Freaking Cam Coleman had two points, should have been at least another six. Will B: At least some fifteen or twelve from that touchdown. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah. Davis: All right, I guess I'll go ahead and I will take My quarterback position I will take Mestimaaker. If I haven't already taken him, I might have already taken him. No, Jackson: No. Davis: I have not. So I'll take Drew Mestimaker against Iowa State. Jackson: I taken turn out channels yet? Davis: No, you've been saving for Auburn. Jackson: Alright, give me Trinidad channels. Get it done against Auburn. Come on, dude. Alright. running back. Will you got a running back for me? Will B: Have you taken who does Duke play this week? Against Bolson College? Nate Shepherd is a fantasy monster. Jackson: Yeah, yeah. Take take Nate Shepherd. 'Cause Davis took him a few weeks ago. I meant to pick Will B: I think you take the best running back and I would I would bet that he's leading if in terms of fantasy the RB one. Jackson: Yeah. All right. Davis? Davis: All right. That's Will B: Is it two running backs? Jackson: No one. Well I'll be thinking of a tight end. Or sorry, a wide receiver and a flex. Will B: Yeah. Davis: All right. I think I've taken Jaden Baugh. Yeah, I've taken Jaden Baugh. Jackson: Actually well, think of a tie in. I my wire seat reflex already. Davis: Alright, I will take in my running back position I will take Take Jeremiah Cow. Auburn action. I said that Auburn's gonna get the upset. If they do, it'd be on the back of a big game from Jeremiah Cobb. for my receiver. I'm gonna take Ryan Wingo, Texas's actual wide receiver one. Jackson: You did. I'm gonna take rock media text Alright. For my so since we added that new thing that we talked about last week where if you score the highest like point total in one week on the whole season, you actually like win the whole thing. So for my wide receiver and flex, I'm going to take Jeremiah Smith and Malachi Tony. We're going for the team of death this week. Give me all the give me all the highest men favorites. Will B: Is it even smart smarter to take Davis: That so so one, that's not even a rule Will B: in the same week? Davis: and two, you're literally just exhausting all your best players on this one. Will B: Yeah, I would not do that. Jackson: All right, okay, all right, all right. Just give me just give me one. Give me give me Malachi Tony. Davis: he he's gotta get the ball rolling somehow. If I win this week I don't think it's I don't think you can come back down seven two. Jackson: That's what I'm saying. I dude I have to win this week. there Davis: I think yeah, I think you have to win this week. Jackson: is no next week if I don't win. Will B: Yeah, but you're you've also lost Jeremiah Smith with a confident quarterback, so that kinda sucks. So Jackson: I know. That's why maybe I shouldn't But do I take him against USC? Davis: Yeah, probably. Jackson: That's my thing. That's why I kinda wanted to take Jeremiah Smith, but let me see. Let me let me look up a high state schedule real quick. Give me like two seconds. All right. Oregon Northwestern Nebraska. Yeah, I can take him against Northwestern. Yeah, I'm good. Levi Jeremiah Smith. Davis: how you want. Jackson: Have I taken White Young at Oklahoma State yet, or did I Davis: No, yeah. Jackson: didn't you take him that week? Alright, I'll take White Young. Davis: Alright, at my flex I'm going to take Umari Hatcher. he's not even Not even in here. I'll have to manually add he's Syracuse's Jackson: Yeah. Davis: Syracuse on here, right? No, Syracuse is not on here. yeah they are. Yeah. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, they plan out the end. Davis: All right. I'll manually add him. Umari Hatcher, eight hundred and eighty seven yards and eight touchdowns on the season. All right. And then in my tight end Jackson: Yeah. Davis: I will take Jackson: Well you got it tied in for me? Will B: Yeah, I do have a tight end. Davis: Alright, for my tight end I will take Christian Betenker. Out of Clemson. He had a hundred and thirty three yards and a touchdown. We'll Jackson: All well who we Davis: we'll see how he does. Jackson: Who are we working with? Well, give me tied in. Will B: Christian, Adney. He's on a touchdown streak. He just scored a touchdown last week. Jackson: All right, give give me give me him. Will B: Well, I he has five catches in the season. I wouldn't take this guy, Jackson: I want to take. Will B: actually. Well too late, whatever. Jackson: That's fine. Just give to me. Davis: All right, to recap the teams, I have Drew Mestemaker against Iowa State. At running Jackson: Right. Richard team, yeah. Davis: back I have Jeremiah Cobb, Auburn's running back against Ole Mess. I then have Ryan Wingo, Texas's receiver against Mississippi State. Tight end I have Christian Betenker. Clemson against Florida State, and then in my flex I have Umari Hatcher, Syracuse's wide receiver against SMU. Jackson: Alright, quarterback Trinidad Chambles old miss against Auburn. Running back Nate Shepard Duke against Boston College. My receiver is Malachi Tony. Miami going against North Carolina. Tight end Christian Abney, Illinois against Maryland. And my flex is Wyatt Young, Oklahoma State playing at Iowa State. Must win week for me. Let's see if we can Davis: You see a trend with my players? Jackson: get it on a little win streak. That will do it for this Halloween. edition of the Mike Shack podcast. thank you all for joining us. Davis, thanks as always. Until next time, we'll see you guys. Davis: See ya. Will B: So yeah, thank you all.