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Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

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  Speaker 1: KRC the talk station.
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  Speaker 2: Eight twenty nine on a Tuesday, It's that time Daniel
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  Speaker 2: Davis deep dive. Retire Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis with his
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  Speaker 2: analysis of all things warfare here on the fifty five
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  Speaker 2: CARC Morning Show. Appreciate his thoughtful analysis and breaking things
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  Speaker 2: down for us. Welcome back, Daniel Davis. It's good to
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  Speaker 2: see you this morning.
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  Speaker 1: Always good to be here, Brian, thanks for having me back.
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  Speaker 2: Operation Economic Outcast that's the launched yesterday, Scottisen coming out
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  Speaker 2: talking about ratcheting up pressure on the Iranian regime and
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  Speaker 2: every country. Apparently they've identified nearly sixty countries, individuals and
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  Speaker 2: also vessels targeted for sanctions. I guess the warning are
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  Speaker 2: the word out is if you are working with and
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  Speaker 2: facilitating economic commerce in Iran, you're going to suffer sanctions yourself. Which, okay,
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  Speaker 2: there are still countries that are facilitating the Iranian economy.
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  Speaker 2: I understand that. How will I guess? I MA, I
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  Speaker 2: want to know up front how this will impact us,
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  Speaker 2: because China happens to be one of those countries. The
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  Speaker 2: last time I checked, Daniel Davis, we do have a
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  Speaker 2: pretty significant trade thing going on with China.
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  Speaker 1: Well, we do. And I actually saw Mike Pompeo, yes
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  Speaker 1: pardon me, on Fox News was I mean of all
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  Speaker 1: the countries he singled out, He says, you know, this
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  Speaker 1: is going to mean we're gonna have to put secondary
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  Speaker 1: sanctions on Chinese banks, and we just have to do it,
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  Speaker 1: because that's the only way this is going to work,
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  Speaker 1: because you can sanction the dollar all day long, but
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  Speaker 1: the dollar's not had didn't have a lot of impact
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  Speaker 1: already because of scads of sanctions over multiple years, really
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  Speaker 1: decades even before that, so there's not a whole lot
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  Speaker 1: of room left there. So the only thing you can
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  Speaker 1: do is go after other countries that aren't doing business
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  Speaker 1: in the dollar with Iran and try to put pressure
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  Speaker 1: on them, and that primarily means Russia and China. And
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  Speaker 1: to say you're gonna go and sanctioned Chinese banks, I mean,
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  Speaker 1: that has the tremendous potension potential to rebound in a
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  Speaker 1: negative way on us. The Chinese have already said that
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  Speaker 1: they're not going to accommodate this. They actually signed a
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  Speaker 1: law that forbids their banks to obey these, So I mean,
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  Speaker 1: it's setting up a big clash here, and I just
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  Speaker 1: I'm telling you what the fragile economic situation we have
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  Speaker 1: right now, and they already strained relations with China over
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  Speaker 1: economic issues and trade and tariffs and all that. This
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  Speaker 1: just doesn't seem like it's a really good idea for
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  Speaker 1: me right now. And I see very little chance. In fact,
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  Speaker 1: I see no chance that this is going to actually
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  Speaker 1: change China's behavior and Iran's.
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  Speaker 2: Behavior fair enough, when we get to more details on
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  Speaker 2: that in a moment. I guess it just needs to
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  Speaker 2: be stated up front. This does not come without concerns
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  Speaker 2: for our own economy. And if the Chinese refuse to
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  Speaker 2: do it and continue to facilitate Iranian's economy, then they're
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  Speaker 2: going to continue to move forward. I guess is as
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  Speaker 2: kneecapped as they may be, that'll still give them a lifeline.
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  Speaker 2: So are we prepared to eat the economic harm here
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  Speaker 2: in the United States when we're already dealing with outrageous
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  Speaker 2: gas prices? This sounds like a recipe for election disaster
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  Speaker 2: in November, if in fact, the downside risks do manifest
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  Speaker 2: themselves sooner rather than later.
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  Speaker 1: Daniel, I mean, look, and plus I mean, under any circumstances,
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  Speaker 1: these kinds of things it's gonna take a long time
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  Speaker 1: to even possibly have an effect. It's say that somewhere
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  Speaker 1: in the future that enough of this comes to bear
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  Speaker 1: it actually causes the kneecapping effect on Iran and they
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  Speaker 1: submit or whatever. I mean. You're talking way down the line,
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  Speaker 1: way into twenty twenty seven. Because number one, these things
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  Speaker 1: that just exist on paper so far, you have to
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  Speaker 1: get enforcement mechanisms. You have to get mechanisms to even
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  Speaker 1: identify who's doing this, who's breaking the sanctions, and of
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  Speaker 1: course every nation will do what it can to mask it,
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  Speaker 1: to make it look like they're accommodating to keep us
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  Speaker 1: happy while doing things backdoor. You've got to be able
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  Speaker 1: to identify that. Then you've got to be able to
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  Speaker 1: do something about it. And it has to take effect
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  Speaker 1: even to work inside of Iran, because they have to.
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  Speaker 1: They're gonna come up with mitigating factors. They're gonna totten
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  Speaker 1: their belt, they're gonna move things around, they're gonna change priorities.
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  Speaker 1: And don't forget it, Iran has a significant amount of
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  Speaker 1: natural resources inside their borders. They can survive a long time.
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  Speaker 1: This is going to be way beyond just the midterm elections,
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  Speaker 1: but in my view, there is literally zero chance that
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  Speaker 1: this has any positive impact between now and November, just
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  Speaker 1: none whatsoever.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, And I understand the logistic of it very complicated.
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  Speaker 2: In each one of the countries that we're planning on,
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  Speaker 2: you know, threatening with sanctions apparently have to be worked with,
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  Speaker 2: negotiated with, have their own independent deadline so they can
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  Speaker 2: you know, get their ducks in a road to comply
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  Speaker 2: with these sanctions to the extent they want to find.
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  Speaker 2: But if Iran doesn't have a source of income, and
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  Speaker 2: it's a broad brush thing to say, but obviously not
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  Speaker 2: getting much of their oil out of the country. I've
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  Speaker 2: read something the otherday. I guess China's imports even have
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  Speaker 2: been slashed significantly, so they're not even buying as much
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  Speaker 2: Iranian oil as they had been previously. But without a
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  Speaker 2: source of income, how can even under starvation conditions, their
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  Speaker 2: economy continue to well even function.
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  Speaker 1: Daniel, Well, that's it's also understanding important to understand how
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  Speaker 1: the Iranian economy functions. It is not just a petro dollar,
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  Speaker 1: It is not just a patrol situations like say with
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  Speaker 1: Kuwait or Saudi Arabia or Cuttar. Almost all of their
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  Speaker 1: economy is based on oil, which is why they're struggling mightily.
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  Speaker 1: But Iran is I think it's like, if I'm not mistaken,
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  Speaker 1: around thirty percent, so they still have seventy percent. It
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  Speaker 1: may even be smaller than that. They have an economy
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  Speaker 1: within their country as well, and of course that's one
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  Speaker 1: of the things that this operation is supposed to be curtailing.
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  Speaker 1: By preventing all these surrounding countries. There's like seven the
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  Speaker 1: land borders, they're trying to keep them from buying anything
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  Speaker 1: because they don't want that to happen as well. So
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  Speaker 1: that's what this is really trying to go after more
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  Speaker 1: than the old The blockade itself takes care of that,
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  Speaker 1: but this is trying to go after that other seventy
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  Speaker 1: percent or whatever the other more larger percentage is. And
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  Speaker 1: I'm telling you, I was on the border between Afghanistan
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  Speaker 1: and Pakistan during my time in the twenty ten twenty
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  Speaker 1: eleven Obama surge, and I'm just telling you, with one
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  Speaker 1: hundred and forty thousand American and Natal troops three hundred
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  Speaker 1: and fifty thousand Afghan troops scattered throughout the country, we
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  Speaker 1: had this much opportunity to interdict anything going back and
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  Speaker 1: forth across that mountainous border. And if I mean, Scott
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  Speaker 1: Beston is just gravely deceived if he thinks that some
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  Speaker 1: kind of sanctions, even if anybody wanted to accommodate to
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  Speaker 1: applo them, is gonna work. When you're talking about all
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  Speaker 1: these three six hundred miles of land border, much of
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  Speaker 1: which is over mountains, it's just not gonna work.
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  Speaker 2: Well, what are the threats from the Iranians about bombing
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  Speaker 2: the surrounding countries, bombing their oil production facilities in response
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  Speaker 2: to this economic warfare that we're waging right now? Do
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  Speaker 2: you see them making good on that, because I guess
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  Speaker 2: the bombs haven't started dropping yet. Daniel Davis, Yeah, a.
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  Speaker 1: Huge point to make their even Let's let's go back
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  Speaker 1: to your original hypothetical possibility here that somehow these sanctions
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  Speaker 1: do end up working, that the mechanisms work and the
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  Speaker 1: people's the other countries stopped doing stuff and Ron starts
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  Speaker 1: to be strangled. Why does anyone think that the Iranian
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  Speaker 1: regime is going to say, Okay, I'm going to allow
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  Speaker 1: you to destroy my country and to make our regime
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  Speaker 1: fault and we're just gonna roll over and take it.
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  Speaker 1: When they have this building stockpile of long range, medium range,
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  Speaker 1: short range missiles, all these different categories of the drone weapons,
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  Speaker 1: and not crush all the people who are helping the strangulation.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, it's just irrational to think that they're just
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  Speaker 1: going to quietly go into the night. I mean, if
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  Speaker 1: it gets down to the point where they're working, the
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  Speaker 1: chances go through the roof that they will then strike
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  Speaker 1: all these countries that are helping the embargo, helping the blockade,
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  Speaker 1: and helping to harm their country. They've expressly set it,
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  Speaker 1: and I don't see any rational reason why they wouldn't
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  Speaker 1: do it.
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  Speaker 2: So it sounds like you discount all the reports that
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  Speaker 2: we've seen about their economy being so poor. The real
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  Speaker 2: you know, it's worth what two million real to the
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  Speaker 2: dollar now inflation runaway currency devaluation that that is right
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  Speaker 2: now having an economic impact on the ir GC's acquisition
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  Speaker 2: of drones and bombs and other things that they would
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  Speaker 2: allow would allow them to. Can you this continuous bombing
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  Speaker 2: there's no impact.
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  Speaker 1: At all, because the wars are not fought by what
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  Speaker 1: the market's doing today. Wars are fought by what the
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  Speaker 1: market was doing and what their facilities did a long
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  Speaker 1: time ago, like many months ago, probably, so the stuff
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  Speaker 1: that they're using right now to build these are things
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  Speaker 1: that have already been delivered from long ago. The stocks now,
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  Speaker 1: it could have a longer term effect, but that's why
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  Speaker 1: I'm saying you're getting into twenty twenty seven. But right
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  Speaker 1: now all they're not using anymore. So all they're doing
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  Speaker 1: is increasing the stockpile. It's not having an effect on
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  Speaker 1: that because they already have the raw materials for it.
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  Speaker 2: Well, modern warfare is revealing itself with me as we've
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  Speaker 2: learned with drones. Now between the war with Russia Ukraine
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  Speaker 2: of course our own use of drones, we've seen this
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  Speaker 2: unbelievable reaction from the I r GC using their small
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  Speaker 2: weapons cheap and expensive. But also you know, the war
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  Speaker 2: is basically I would argue, come to our backyard. They
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  Speaker 2: just wanted you to comment on the Iranians hitting twelve
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  Speaker 2: of our water power our water stations as well as
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  Speaker 2: a power plant in the United Kingdom. By all accounts,
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  Speaker 2: the Iranian hackers did this so they don't need to
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  Speaker 2: be close in proximity to do some significant economic harm.
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  Speaker 2: Do you believe the Iranians represent a significant threat to
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  Speaker 2: our infrastructure which is apparently very porous, and that we
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  Speaker 2: might see major power plant get knocked out or some
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  Speaker 2: other form of attack on the United States.
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  Speaker 1: Well, it could, I'll tell you. There's there's a lot
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  Speaker 1: of dispute about who's actually behind a lot of this stuff.
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  Speaker 1: The obvious suspect is going to be Iran for obvious reasons,
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  Speaker 1: and it may well be them, but it could also
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  Speaker 1: be other actors that, oh, sure stir the pot up,
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  Speaker 1: that want to have war going on. But whoever it is,
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  Speaker 1: I mean, it does expose that there is a weakness
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  Speaker 1: and in fact, because we have already hit in earlier
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  Speaker 1: rounds desalination plants inside of Iran, it would not at
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  Speaker 1: all be illogical for them to say, well, we'll hit
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  Speaker 1: your plants. We can't reach to reach it with missiles,
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  Speaker 1: but we can do it with this the other kinds
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  Speaker 1: of capabilities with the cyber But it also shows that,
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  Speaker 1: I mean, whether it's Iran or anyone else, sure need
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  Speaker 1: to be shoring up our sober defenses so that nobody
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  Speaker 1: can do this kind of thing. And hopefully this will
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  Speaker 1: be a wake up call to do a better job
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  Speaker 1: of providing security on our entire infrastructure.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I remember in a long period of time after
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  Speaker 2: nine to eleven attacks on this on the United States,
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  Speaker 2: everyone was worried about cells and terrorist attacks and the like,
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  Speaker 2: and of course on the heels of the Biden administration,
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  Speaker 2: with a lot of known godaways and concerns over military
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  Speaker 2: age men in our country that we don't have any
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  Speaker 2: information about. I guess we need to also sharpen our
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  Speaker 2: wits and stay frosty. And with regard to domestic terrorism
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  Speaker 2: related to IROD, I mean, you.
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  Speaker 1: Can't rule anything out. And listen, I'm just going to
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  Speaker 1: be blunt here. This is part of the issue we
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  Speaker 1: have to consider before we start a war that if
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  Speaker 1: you like, make an existential threat to another country, if
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  Speaker 1: they get to the point to where they feel they
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  Speaker 1: have nothing to lose, then they can take a lot
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  Speaker 1: more radical action. And it's entirely possible that they could
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  Speaker 1: either activate any kind of sleeper sales they may have here,
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  Speaker 1: because remember Iran prepared for decades for the ground war
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  Speaker 1: inside of your on and it worked really well for
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  Speaker 1: their defense and for their offense. And it's not at
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  Speaker 1: all unreasonable to think that they may also have had
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  Speaker 1: contingency plans by planting people here in the United States.
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  Speaker 1: I don't have any knowledge about that, but it would
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  Speaker 1: not be irrational for them to have done so in
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  Speaker 1: something that we need to be careful of.
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: Al's fair in Love and War Daniel Davis Deep Dive.
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: You can find his podcast where you get all your podcasts.
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: Like iHeartMedia DDDD alliterative it is. It's an excellent segment.
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  Speaker 2: I appreciate your knowledge and sharing your information and analysis
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  Speaker 2: with my listening audience every week. Daniel Davis. I'll look
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  Speaker 2: forward to doing it next week. Have a wonderful week
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: between now and then.
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  Speaker 1: Always my pleasure, Bryan, see you next time.
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  Speaker 2: Take care of my friend. Eight forty one fifty five
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  Speaker 2: KR Sity Talk Station,