Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 361 - 9/26/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 361 - 9/26/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello and welcome to episode 361 of the All Systems Go sports
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betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Friday. Our work week is coming to an
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end the final full week in the month of September.
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Got a couple days next week and then it'll officially be October
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next week. So the year's flying by.
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Summer's pretty much over with and we are in the full swing of
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football betting. And that is totally fine with me
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because last night had a great winter there with the Seattle
0:56
Seahawks getting it done for the team.
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One play 1 and O + 0.8 units. Money line to short favorite
1:03
came through and it wasn't easy because the Seahawks were up 14
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in like the fourth quarter and then gave up two straight
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touchdowns. And I'm like, OK, what's going
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on here? Like is Arizona going to go for
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a 2 point conversion? I'm going to lose by one with
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another terrible bad beat. Kind of like the the Rams plus 3
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1/2. Well, luckily there was a kick
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from Chad Ryland of Arizona that didn't make it to the landing
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zone, but I brought the ball out to the 40.
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Couple big plays tossed to Jackson Smith and Jake, but walk
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off field goal. Chef's kiss.
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Seattle wins the game 23 to 20. So it was probably sweatier than
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it should have been, but that was a great hit in terms of what
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we look for. I remember going into last
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night's game, I was telling you, hey, I don't like the fact that
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Seahawks are a public play. I'm a contrarian.
1:48
Better. You're getting roughly 75% of
1:51
bets on Seattle. And a lot of people DM me saying
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you can't possibly be taking a 75% favorite.
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Are you? And I said here's the thing, I
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don't like the splits in terms of the public percentage, but I
2:02
loved everything else about Seattle.
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Dog to fave line move came through for the team.
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You open as a dog, you flip to a favorite.
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We had all those system matches. In terms of Thursday Night
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Football favorites, Chalk have done very, very well straight
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up. We also have Seattle with a
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great rhythm match. Rhythm had Seattle -2.9.
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So not every play is going to be perfect, but when you can have
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one side of the Ledger, all these checkmarks in front in
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favor of Seattle, like 10 of them.
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And one was in favor of Arizona, the contrarian spot.
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Hey, you're trying to make the smartest bet you can.
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We had a preponderance of evidence to play Seattle.
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And again, they made us sweat, but they were able to come
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through. So great hit there with Seattle
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as we steam into a big Friday and toward the weekend.
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Now looking toward today, guys, it's all football we try to do
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on a Friday is hopefully take advantage of some sharp Friday
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Night Lights in college football.
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So I have two college football plays for you tonight, both very
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contrarian and very sharp with some good rhythm edges.
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And then I got a six pack of plays for the weekend, 3 college
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football games, three NFL games. You probably know a lot of these
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already, but I want to update you on these numbers.
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And there was a NFL game that I was waiting for.
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I was getting greedy. I was saying I want the hook on
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this game. Well, guess what, one book is
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offering the hook. So we will have our final best
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bet card as we steam into the weekend with college and NFL six
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overall for the weekend and then 2 college football games for
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tonight. And you know what the deal is?
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Let's try to go at least one and one if we could go to and out,
3:31
that'll be even sweeter. Now I want to mention real
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quick, thank you for all those of you who tuned into the rhythm
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rundown last night. If you're unfamiliar, every
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Thursday night stream live on Twitter, myself, my buddy Kate
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Harper. We breakdown the games from a
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data-driven perspective, from a rhythm perspective and was
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really interesting is there was a prop bet last night.
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I didn't play it because I wasn't I wasn't brave enough to
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play it. But it was Jackson Smith and
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Jiggba under 84 1/2 receiving yards and he had a goose egg in
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the first half. He had a great second out.
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He landed on 79 receiving yards. But if you look at some of the
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tweets across the market from a lot of these PR people from the
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sports books, Jackson Smith and Jiggle was like the number one
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most popular play to go over his receiving yardage and rhythm had
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a smart signal. Green Star recommended play on
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the under and was able to come through.
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So Rhythm had a banner night -2.9 with Seattle and they won
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by three and Smith and Jiggle under 84 1/2.
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He landed 79. So reminder TuneIn every
4:30
Thursday and if you want to give Rhythm a shot, use the promo
4:33
code START 25 for 25% off. There's also a refer a friend
4:37
discount. And there's the leaderboard
4:39
contest. If you have the best model, you
4:40
can win 406 hundred or $1000 and their new payouts every single
4:45
week. So keep an eye out.
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Well, that being said, let's get right back to do what we love to
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do. By the way, I know it's a huge
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baseball slate, too unpredictable for me.
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So I'm going to focus my my units here on the NFL.
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But my Red Sox can possibly clinch the playoffs tonight.
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So I'll be rooting for the Sox as a fan, not as a sports
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better. The line actually fell away from
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Boston toward Detroit for tonight.
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But anyway, let's talk about some college games for tonight.
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First one on the board for me, 7:00 Eastern Time, Florida State
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at Virginia. This is going to be a very
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heavily back game on ESPN. There's only three games and I
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like the fact that they staggered them.
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So there's a 7:00 and 9:00 and a 10/30.
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I got plays on the 7:00 and 9:00.
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But anyway, setting the stage for this matchup, we have
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Florida State 3 and O. They're ranked 8th in the
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country having a great start to their season.
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They dominated Kent State last week 66 to 10 easily covered or
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covered, I guess comfortably as a 44 1/2 point home favorite.
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You know, Virginia 3 and 1 unranked, but did just beat
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Stanford 48 to 20 and they covered as a 16 1/2 point home
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favorite. So what we've seen across the
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market here, well, this game opened Seminoles around a 7 1/2
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point Rd. favorite and the public is not scared off by that
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number for the state's ranked, they're undefeated.
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Virginia's unranked, you know, 7 1/2 not that big of a number.
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Public is saying, yeah, Seminoles are going to win by
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double digits. So even though we're getting 82%
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of spread bets at DraftKings, laying it with the Seminoles,
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the Seminoles are not up to -8 -, 9.
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This line is falling in favor of Virginia Plus 7 1/2 down to +7.
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A lot of books juiced up, even a couple right now touching down
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to 6 1/2. So let's take a step back.
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If the public is all over Florida State in a heavily bet
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primetime ESPN game, why are the odds makers dropping the spread
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on Florida State to make it easier for the public to cover
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when the public is already playing Florida State?
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Tells me smart money is on the dog here with Virginia.
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So I took the points with UVAI. Missed the 7 1/2 but I did get
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+7 so shop around. 7 1/2 really doesn't look available anymore.
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A lot of books are at 6 1/2 so you at least want the key number
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of seven. That way if they lose by 7
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you're able to push instead of lose that bet.
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But 7 is pretty widely available even though again, few books are
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down to 6 1/2. But aside from just this really
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sharp reverse line movement public Seminoles line going to
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the Cavs, Virginia, even if you take away that smart RLM play,
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is just in a great contrarian spot because the Cavs are only
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getting 18% of spread bets in a heavily bet prime time game.
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So every drunk guy at the boss saying, yeah, you got to ham a
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Florida State, we have an opportunity to bet against the
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public, which she always and a lot of people, you know, some
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people will ask me about like contrarian and other sports.
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It it's a sound philosophy, but you got to do in the sports that
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are heavily bet and in the games that are heavily bet.
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So people ask me all the time, like, how do you get ticket
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counts on games? Well, there are some services
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out there that provide ticket counts.
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You got to be aware of, OK, what books are they taking it from?
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But it's safe to assume that if it is a nationally televised
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game, if it's on ESPN, Fox, ABCNBC, if it's prime time,
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those are going to be your most heavily BET games.
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Think of it this way. If the public can't watch the
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game, they're probably not going to bet on it.
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So if it's a prime time game, it's on TV and it's not on like
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a streaming network, then you're good to go.
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It's going to be heavily BET, but aside from that RLM play the
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contrarian spot. You look at the splits on
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Virginia, they look pretty good. DraftKings only 18% of spread
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bets, but 30% of spread dollars. Circa 39% of spread bets, 68% of
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spread dollars. So well DK and Circa are showing
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a really good low bets higher dollar split in favor of
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Virginia. Virginia would also have buy low
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value as an unranked dog against the sell high ranked opponent.
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So I love these unranked first ranked opportunities.
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Unranked dogs verse ranked opponents are 136 and 116 ATS 54
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percent, 3% ROI since 2024. So the public, the rankings,
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they see, they see the rankings and say if you're ranked that
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means you're good. If you're unranked, that means
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you're bad. So always take the ranked team.
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If you're a contrarian, better you flip it the other way.
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You want to sell high on the ranked team, buy low on the
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unranked team. Lastly, Cavs would be a
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conference dog. So built in familiarity, rivalry
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aspect, levels, the playing field benefits the team getting
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points and oh, by the way, Virginia, I popped open my
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rhythm app. The rhythm had two recommended
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green star plays, one of which was a smart signal, which is
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basically their best plays, their best predictions, plus 5.3
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and plus 3.8. So again, rhythm saying it
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should be about a four or five point game.
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We can get a 7. We can bet against the public.
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We can follow this sharp line move on ranked, first ranked.
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I am on Virginia +7 for the early 7:00 game tonight.
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Next one for you love this one as well. 9:00 PM Eastern Time
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TCU at Arizona State. So TCU comes in three and O
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ranked 24th in the country just held off SMU 35 to 24 covered as
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a 6 1/2 point home favorite. Meanwhile Arizona State 3 and 1
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unranked but did just upset Baylor 27 to 24 one out rate as
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a 2 1/2 point Rd. dog. So what we seen across the
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market, well first the opening line is very important to me.
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This game opened Arizona State -2 1/2 at home.
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Now why is that important? Because right off the bat, why
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is the unranked? Even when you factor in home
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field advantage, why is the unranked team favored over the
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ranked team? You know why is Arizona State
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was unranked opening as a favorite.
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Now the public, you know what they do?
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The wrong team is favored. As if the public is smarter than
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the supercomputers and the odds makers in Vegas.
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I don't think so. But the public is saying wrong
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team is favored. So right now, 70% of spread bets
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at DraftKings are taking the points of TCU.
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However, even though we've seen heavy betting on TCU, this isn't
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down to A21 pick em game. It's actually moved further
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toward Arizona State -2 1/2 up to -3.
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So why is if the public is loving TCU plus 2 1/2, why are
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the odds makers now given the public +3?
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No, they're not being charitable.
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They're not being nice. They're moving this line toward
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Arizona State because smart money is fading the trendy dog
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TCU horn frogs and going with Arizona State.
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So I love the spot for the sun Devils.
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Great bet against the public play contrarian favorite heavily
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bet game 9:00 Fox. You look at the splits, 30%
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bets, 44% dollars at DK at circa 50% bets, 79% dollars.
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So both are, you know, really good low bets, higher dollar
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splits in favor of Arizona State.
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This would also be another unranked verse ranked.
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This is actually a very rare unranked home favorite, first
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ranked opponent. You actually see the system
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quite a bit in college basketball.
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Like they'll be a, a situation where, you know, an unranked
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team is -2 at home against a rank team.
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You see it a little bit less every now and again, little bit
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less though in college football. But college basketball, college
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football, I love this angle because it's just so fishy and
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doesn't make sense. And then you learn to embrace
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that fishy side that doesn't make sense.
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I'm going to go, however, Sun Devils on the money line.
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You could get a 2 1/2. There's a lot of threes out
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there. There's a couple 2 1/2 left, two
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and a halfs left. You got to win by three to cover
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that number. But another money line short
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favorite. I'd hate to see Arizona win by
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one or two. When you lose, win by three and
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you push. So I went Arizona State on the
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money line. I got -148 I think the best
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number right now is around -150 I bet this game kind of late
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last night. I'm saying, hey, this, this is
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checking off all the boxes. But in addition to just
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protecting yourself in the event of a close game, look at the
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splits on the money line. DraftKings, Arizona State 36%
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bets 43% dollars, circa 43% bets 58% dollars.
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And then here's the kicker, fishy unranked home favorites,
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first ranked opponents straight up are 53 and 2865 percent, 5%
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ROI since 2017. Lastly, we have a 14% sharp mush
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edge on Juice Reel. So 14% more of the sharper
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players are going Arizona State and rhythm.
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I have two models, Arizona State -2.8 and -3.2.
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So is 2.8 or 3.2 an edge on a 2 1/2 or 3?
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Not really, but it is an edge on a money line because all we got
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to do is win the damn game. So I am fading trendy dog TCU.
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I'm back in Arizona State here. I got Sun Devil's money line.
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You can get them right now. Shop around around -150 So
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Virginia plus 7 Arizona State money line -150 Now let's look
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toward the weekend because we got a huge slate and I got a lot
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of work to do before my my party tomorrow.
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We're having all my buddies come over.
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We're having a cookout. It's a joint book release party
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as well as my wife's birthday party.
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So there's a lot. I got to mow the lawn.
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I got to, you know, pick up ice. I got to grab some platters from
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the caterer we got. It's going to be a good time.
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But we will also, my buddy Richie is supposed to bring his
13:36
projector, so we're going to put the projector on the back of the
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house. I also got a Solo Stove.
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We're going to have a little little fire and we're going to
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sweat college football, maybe some UFC.
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Me and the boys get together like to sweat a little UFC.
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So I'm very much looking forward to that.
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But anyway, we got some games you want to cash on.
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So for this weekend, the first one that jumped out to me, Notre
13:57
Dame and Arkansas. We talked about this one
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earlier, but I'm taking the points of the Razorbacks.
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This is noon game tomorrow we open this game.
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Notre Dame listed as high as -6 Notre Dame is getting a majority
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of bets. Nearly 70% of tickets are going
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Notre Dame. Big name school, they're ranked.
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Arkansas is unranked. However, even though big
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majority is on Notre Dame, the lines falling toward Arkansas +6
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down to plus 4 1/2. This is pretty widely available
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plus 4 1/2, but I like the fact that this is a sharper verse
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line move. Contrarian play, unranked dog
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verse ranked opponent. We also have a 10% sharp mush
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edge on Arkansas with our friends at Juice Real.
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Now. Rhythm isn't a huge edge.
14:37
Rhythm has Arkansas plus 4.8. So off the four and a half, it's
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really not a huge edge here. This is one of those games that
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really is right up my alley. Heavily bet public all over
14:47
ranked team line going to the unranked team.
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Sharp mush edge. I got Arkansas plus 4 1/2.
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Can't I wait to sweat this one? 3:30 PM LSU, Ole Miss.
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I'm sure you guys have been tracking all the drama on TikTok
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and Instagram with Wayne Kiffin's daughter Landry Kiffin
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dating the star middle linebacker for LSU.
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So you know what's going on here.
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Is it, is it a psyop? What's the deal?
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Is she infiltrating LSU on behalf of her dad?
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I don't know, but give me Ole Miss all day here guys.
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Love this dog to fave line move. Reminds me a little bit of the
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Seattle game, the North Texas one from last week, as well as
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the Eagles game. Those are all dog to fave line
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moves. But in particular public is
15:28
going LSU. I mean LSU across the market
15:31
getting nearly 65% of spread bets, but LSU open lane 2 and
15:35
now it's flipped to Ole Miss -1 1/2.
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Some books now even up to to -2 I'm seeing which is great as
15:42
you're getting closer to to kick off here. 2 ranked teams take
15:45
the home favorite. That is a 80% straight up system
15:49
173 and 4310% ROI. 80% win rate since 2016.
15:54
I love the fact that Rhythm has Ole Miss -3.1 and -3.3.
16:00
So remember what that Eagles game was?
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Dog to fave Eagles plus 1 1/2 or plus 2 1/2 to I think -1 1/2 - 2
16:07
somewhere around there. But I remember Rhythm had a
16:09
three. Well, similar thing here when
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Rhythm has a three and you can money line a -, 1 1/2 again,
16:15
lines going up to two. Pretty good edge there.
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So I jumped on Ole Miss a little bit earlier this week -114 on
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the money line now. Looks like your best numbers
16:23
around -120 but man, everyone on LSU lines going Ole Miss.
16:28
I got Ole Miss winning this one. Or at least fingers crossed.
16:31
I hope they do money line Rebels around -120 at this point.
16:36
Last one in college for you. Big one here.
16:39
Let's look at Georgia and Alabama. 7:30 PM Eastern Time.
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It's going to be the most heavily bet game, right up there
16:45
with Oregon, Penn State. But for Alabama, Georgia, this
16:49
is right up my alley. We have two ranked teams.
16:52
But the public, for whatever reason, maybe it's just the the
16:54
new coach, doesn't inspire confidence.
16:56
They're not quite the powerhouse they were under Nick Saban, but
17:00
everyone's on Georgia. Georgia open this game, however,
17:03
around a 4 1/2 point home favorite and they're getting
17:06
upwards of 70% of spread bets, but they're not up to 5 or 6.
17:10
They're down to 3. Some shops even down to 2 1/2.
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Now. I jumped on Bama a little bit
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earlier this week. I remember we talked about on
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the pod, I bought it up +3 at the time was plus 3 -, 1 O 5.
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So I bought it up $0.20 + 3 1/2 to -125.
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Again, I'm only going to buy points around key numbers when
17:28
you're juiced down, but in this case, getting hooked to me was
17:33
really valuable. Right now, pretty much all you
17:35
can get is a three. I'll play the three at this
17:37
point if you missed it, but this is a classic public Georgia Line
17:42
falling to Bama. We also have a SEC conference
17:45
dog. When two teams in the SEC face
17:47
off, The conference dog is 57% this year, ATS, 63% ATS.
17:54
Since the start of last year. Rhythm has Bama plus 1.3.
17:59
So Rhythm has a close game in this one, and this is a
18:02
contrarian play, heavily bent primetime 730 game.
18:05
And oh, by the way, there's an 18% sharp mush edge from Juice
18:09
Reel on Alabama. So I'm going Roll Tide plus 3
18:13
1/2 again. Looks like plus 3 is your best
18:15
number, but maybe you don't hate that because some books are
18:18
juiced up toward Bama. Plus 3 -, 115 -, 120.
18:22
I do see two books at 2 1/2. So you need that three.
18:25
They lose by three. You got to push that bet instead
18:27
of lose that bet. So Arkansas plus 4 1/2 Ole Miss
18:30
money line. Bama, I got the plus 3 1/2
18:33
again, plus 3. Looks like your best price now.
18:35
Now for the NFL card for this weekend.
18:39
I got my party tomorrow, but I can't get too crazy and get
18:42
hungover and sleep in tomorrow morning because one, I got to
18:44
write the sharper board for visen.com, but #2 I got an
18:47
early. It's not a London game.
18:49
It's an Ireland game in Dublin. We got Minnesota, Pittsburgh
18:53
early 930 start. I love Minnesota in the spot, So
18:57
what I like most is the dog to fave line move.
18:59
I think if you like or you really like that move towards
19:02
Seattle, Dog to fave last night, you gotta like Minnesota.
19:05
It's very similar. It's not a road move, but it's a
19:07
neutral site. But we open this game.
19:10
Some shops as high as Pittsburgh -1 1/2 -, 2.
19:15
Some shops are even like -2 1/2. We've now flipped to Minnesota
19:19
-2 1/2. So dog to fave Minnesota, if you
19:22
look at the juice, it's Minnesota -2 1/2 at -115 So it
19:26
looks like between now and Sunday morning, it maybe even
19:30
gets up to 3 here. Now, I told this to you guys
19:32
before, but non conference favorites have done great.
19:36
They're 69% straight up since 2023.
19:38
Favorite straight up this year, 73 percent, 12% ROI.
19:42
But as I as I gathered everyone around the campfire last night,
19:46
I read a passage in my book, the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook.
19:49
You got to pick it up on Amazon.com, but I talked about
19:52
the International series favorites doing well, Basically
19:55
winning I think was like 70 something percent of the time.
19:59
So I'm going to back Carson Wentz and go with Minnesota
20:02
here. But I went money line again.
20:04
Don't want to win by one or two and lose this bet or it gets the
20:07
three lay of three and push. I'm on Minnesota money line.
20:10
I got them earlier -140 a little bit early this week.
20:15
I think you can still get -140 at Caesar's, but shop around
20:17
some books a little closer to -150.
20:20
And the rhythm does have Minnesota -1.4, so not a huge
20:24
edge if you're laying the 2 1/2, but it is kind of backing up
20:27
that they should at least win this game.
20:29
So give me Minnesota money line. Next one for you, Colts and
20:33
Rams. Give me the Colts here.
20:35
Let's get some revenge after the Rams ripped our heart out and
20:37
danced to the beat last week. This spot to me, just kind of a
20:41
classic situational angle that I look for.
20:44
We open Rams around A at least as high as some books like -4
20:48
1/2 - 5, even like 5 1/2 at some shops.
20:52
Publix down the middle 5050. They don't know where to go here
20:55
and he's off to a good start. But yet Rams won the
20:58
championship a few years ago. They're at home so public
21:01
doesn't know where to go. But what do we always talk
21:03
about? 5050 ticket split?
21:05
I'm not talking money, just raw tickets.
21:07
Bets line shouldn't really move at all because theoretically the
21:10
bets are even. No need to adjust the price.
21:13
However, even though it's 5050, this line is moving toward
21:16
Indianapolis or Indiana Jones, which it's kind of cringy of a
21:19
nickname, but I get it. But this line has moved toward
21:22
the Colts +55 and a half now down to plus 3 1/2.
21:26
Some shops even juice toward the Colts side, like maybe it gets
21:28
down to three. There is a 7%, nothing huge, but
21:32
a 7% sharp mush edge on juice. Real in favor of the Colts and
21:35
the points we have. Daniel Jones is a road dog, 64%
21:39
against the spread in his career.
21:41
Dogs with a severe line move of two points or more off the
21:43
opener, 56% ATS since 2018. We also have short Rd. dogs
21:48
getting 6 or less. They're 54% ATS since 2019.
21:51
So all lining up on the Colts. And oh, by the way, Rhythm has
21:55
Colts plus 2.4 and Colts plus 1.3, so feels like an edge if
22:01
you're getting 3 1/2. So I'm going Indiana Jones and
22:04
short round plus 3 1/2 last bet. This is a game we talked about
22:09
earlier and I said, you know what, I'm going to get greedy.
22:12
I'm only going to play it if the hook appears, and it did.
22:15
So I'm talking Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions.
22:18
Now this game open Detroit around -10 1/2 at home.
22:22
Early in the week when I wrote the sharp report for visen.com,
22:24
I believe it was either Tuesday or Wednesday, the line was down
22:27
to 8 1/2. So it was like, wow, lot of
22:29
money here coming Cleveland in the points.
22:31
But then I think it was like Wednesday, Thursday into
22:34
yesterday, we saw the sign creep back up toward Detroit, got back
22:37
up to Detroit -10 so that tells me there was some smart money
22:41
that, you know, low watermark Detroit -8 1/2 and brought it
22:44
back up. But when it was at 10, I'm
22:46
saying let's see if we can just get a hook.
22:48
Let's just wait. And guess what, there is a book
22:52
now offering the hook. I found ESPN Bet plus 10 1/2
22:56
-125. Again, every other book is 10,
22:59
but ESPN BET is offering plus 10 1/2 - 125, so I jumped on it
23:04
plus 10 1/2 - 125. If you look at these big dogs,
23:08
they've been pretty darn good getting 6 1/2 or more.
23:12
They're six and four ATS this year.
23:13
They're 56% ATS, 7% ROI since 2022.
23:18
You also look at a rest first tired.
23:20
Cleveland played Sunday, Detroit played Monday on a short week
23:24
and also some correlative betting like this total has
23:26
fallen 47 down to like 4544. And if you're getting 10 1/2 and
23:32
a low total game of 44 1/2, that's pretty good correlative
23:36
betting in terms of, hey, if the totals, you know, going to be
23:40
less than 45, you know, it's going to be difficult for the
23:42
favorite to win by 11 or more if you're expecting fewer points.
23:46
So I did jump on Browns again. Plus 10 1/2 -. 125 ESPN bet.
23:51
But at Rhythm I have two models. One's a recommended Green Star
23:54
play plus 7.9 + 8.1. So Rhythm is telling me you got
24:00
an edge that's a good like 2 1/2 point edge.
24:02
You get 10 1/2. Rhythm says it should be about
24:04
an 8 point game. I'm going to.
24:06
I'm going to cross my fingers and hope the Cleveland defense
24:08
can keep this thing close. Can you lose by 10?
24:11
Can you lose 24 to 14? Can you lose 30 to 20, you know,
24:21
27 to 17, something like that? Boy, that would be nice.
24:26
So Vikings money line, Colts plus 10, Colts plus 3 1/2,
24:30
Browns plus 10 1/2. So that about does it for
24:33
episode 361 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
24:37
powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod, as
24:39
always, where we wrap things up. And I start first by saying
24:42
thank you. Thank you for taking the time
24:44
out of your day, out of your busy lives.
24:46
And we got a lot going on, but you tune in, you grind the
24:49
sweats with me, you make sharp data-driven plays.
24:52
We do it together every day means a lot.
24:54
So if you want to give this podcast a five star review that
24:57
would make my day, click the follow button, leave a good
25:00
review or comment, recommend the pod to a friend.
25:02
I would always appreciate that. Next, if you enjoy the style of
25:06
betting breakdown, data-driven sharp contrarian betting, you
25:09
want to learn more about data-driven betting, you have
25:11
someone in your life who could use some data-driven tips.
25:14
Well, I'd love for you to go to Amazon.com, type in the NFL
25:18
sharp betting playbook, my new book.
25:20
It's really the blueprint of how to approach data-driven betting
25:23
in the NFL. You can brush up on your NFL.
25:26
You can recommend it to a friend, a colleague, someone who
25:28
parlays everything, someone who you know, parlays every home
25:31
team every over teases down, every favorite teases up, every
25:34
dog doesn't even consider Wong teasers, which by the way, the
25:38
Cardinals plus 1 1/2 to 7 F did come through.
25:41
Didn't didn't look like that at the time, but did kind of
25:44
backdoor cover that one. But anyway, if you want to pick
25:46
up my first book, the everything Guide to Sports Betting or the
25:49
NFL Sharp Betting playbook, it would really mean a lot to me.
25:51
You're going to get some more great insights.
25:54
Buy it for that friend of yours who could use some bankroll
25:56
management tips. Bring one or both of those books
25:59
to the sports book. I'll sign them for you.
26:01
Buy a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat the Cavs and the Sun
26:04
Devils tonight. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
26:07
and Juice Real yet? My two favorite sports betting
26:09
apps, Rhythm, fantastic for their AI back models and
26:12
predictions for game bets and player props.
26:15
Again, stay at Seattle -2.9. They win by three last night.
26:18
So Rhythm can be a great tool. Like I handicapped the market.
26:21
And then if Rhythm kind of backs up what I'm leaning toward based
26:25
on the data, that makes me more confident to place a bet.
26:27
So download Rhythm and then also download Juice Reel.
26:30
Juice Reel has got some great benefits.
26:32
First off, this pod is free. It cost you nothing.
26:34
If you want to let me know you appreciate the pod tip, your
26:36
podcast host and you can do it by signing up for the $4.99 a
26:42
week. That's right, 5 bucks $4.99 a
26:44
week. You can sign up and get every
26:46
single all systems go official best bet pick from the juice
26:49
reel app. You also get the robo Jackson
26:52
best bet picks, the sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays
26:55
the shop for the best sign features all available when you
26:58
download juice reel. So download rhythm download
27:00
juice reel will be off and running making sharp data-driven
27:03
plays. Next, do you have a live odds
27:06
page? If you don't, you need one
27:08
because you got to be able to track the market.
27:10
What did the line open at? What is it now?
27:12
See which direction it's moved? Identify Steam pull up line
27:15
history. Live scoring live in game
27:17
wagering odds. Finding the best price, Finding
27:20
that 10 1/2 with Cleveland where every other books at 10.
27:23
The best live odds page out there is Odds Logic.
27:25
Give it a shot. Go to oddslogic.com/josh 1237
27:31
day free trial. 50% off your first month.
27:33
Again, that's Odds logic.com/josh 123 and then
27:38
Novig. I've mentioned it before, but
27:40
you can bet through a sports book if as long as you're in a
27:42
legal state, nothing wrong with that.
27:44
But I would like for you to try out a betting exchange.
27:47
You get better juice because you're not having to pay the
27:49
books. You're getting better numbers
27:51
because you're competing with other betters and not the sports
27:54
book. And I'll give you a perfect
27:56
example. Last night, Seattle Seahawks,
27:59
they were basically across the market on the money line -125 -,
28:06
130. But I tweeted this out, Novig
28:09
because you're getting better numbers.
28:11
Seattle was -112 on the money line.
28:14
So hey, right there, you're getting better numbers by using
28:17
a betting exchange, not a sports book.
28:19
So if you'd like to give Novig a shot, you can click the link on
28:21
my profile. You can also just download Novig
28:23
and when you deposit your money, it works just like a sports
28:26
book. Make sure you plug in the promo
28:28
code Josh 123. So that about does it as we wrap
28:33
things up, guys. Two final thoughts.
28:35
Whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
28:38
Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods and Mohegan
28:40
Sundown in Connecticut, the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge
28:43
Park Casino, MGM Springfield, the Nash Ramat in New England.
28:47
We're out in the desert where the true grinders get down,
28:49
where Billy Walters sends his number runners with the lowest
28:51
use possible is found at the South Point or Sweat and Sharp
28:54
can train plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
28:57
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, whatever it may be,
28:59
you're going to walk up to me. What, what, what, what sound
29:02
does a Seahawk make? I guess that's a crow.
29:05
But we're just going to we're going to do like the I know the
29:08
Eagles do the fly. Eagles fly with the you know,
29:09
you flap your arms like their wings.
29:11
We'll make some kind of Seahawks, you know, type type
29:14
thing and we'll we'll celebrate that Seahawks money line winner,
29:18
which was great to see last night.
29:20
So first one's on me, next one's on you.
29:22
We'll reinvest it into tonight and the weekend.
29:25
So as always, guys coming off A1 and O&O and one a great night, a
29:28
terrible night. Hot stretch, cold stretch,
29:30
grinding somewhere in the middle.
29:32
Remember, you're never as good as you think when you're hot.
29:34
You're never as bad as you think when you're cold.
29:36
Just stick with it. Continue to be disciplined
29:39
protector units, make sharp data-driven plays only when
29:42
you've built a strong enough case to fire on a bet.
29:45
And if we can do that, we can find games that fit our sweet
29:48
spot against the public with the house, with the pros.
29:50
Flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
29:52
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
29:56
So have a great Friday everybody.
29:57
Have an even better weekend. I will be back at it.
30:01
I'll see you on Monday. And by the way, I think we have
30:04
two Monday Night Football games, if I'm not mistaken.
30:07
Yeah, since the Denver Jets, Miami.
30:09
So we'll have a lot to talk about and recap on Monday, but
30:12
good luck everyone. I'll see you back on Monday for
30:14
episode 362 of the All Systems Go sports betting podcast
30:19
powered by rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
30:21
great weekend.