Latest / Backchecking the Bolts / Buffalo Sabres Surprise the NHL? Jonah Ahrens Breaks Down Buffalo vs. Montreal + NHL Awards
Transcript
- Jason Linkes: Coming up, I'm back checking the bolts. You know what a firing really does to a player, to a team, to a system, but it's hard to look at that. And we sit so often in hockey, we see the head coaching bumps. This was a GM bump. It's just, it's what it is. Clearly there was a breath of fresh air. GM Yarmou Kekalyan came in notoriously and basically told all the players, there's not a single one of you that isn't expendable. I think that lit a fire and I think overall they really began to play for their jobs a little bit. Once they got the ball rolling, then it just snowballed and snowballed and you pile that with some good goaltending and a healthy lineup finally. you know, you have yourself the most historic stretch in 30 years. to Back Checking the Bolts. Back Checking the Bolts is your cup of coffee to get you the latest on the Tampa Bay Lightning. Join host Jason Linkus and the managing editor of Raw Charge, Justin Godfrey. as they break down the lightning's most recent games and go beyond the highlights, telling you what the box scores didn't. It's time to drop the puck. It's the back checking the bolts podcast. Hi, I'm your host, Jason. And as always, I am joined by the managing editor of raw charge. can read him each and every day at www.rawcharge.com. It's Justin Godfrey. Well, we don't have the playoffs to talk about, at least for the lightning, but how you been? Pretty good. You know, starting to feel a little refreshed. You know, it's nice getting sleep again at night, not having to stay up late. I'll watch it over time hockey games as exciting as they are. But yeah, kind of getting back to a regular schedule here. Uh, you go outside, enjoy the Florida sunshine a little bit. Yeah. Starting to gravitate towards back towards writing about hockey, you know, starting to look ahead to next year. You're gonna, you know, a side eye on the playoffs as it is, you know, that's enjoying the fact that Montreal is continuing to win because it makes the lightning look better. You know, you don't want to be the team that Loses to the team that gets blown out in the next round. You know, sorry, Pittsburgh, but, ⁓ yeah, it's, I told you, I told you Philadelphia was in for a, they were in for a drugging. I thought they might get a game. thought later Volardar would steal at least one game, but now it was Carolina wasn't messing around. So, ⁓ you know, it's kind of been an interesting second round that I don't. It hasn't been as competitive. Like even the, the Minnesota, ⁓ Colorado series, like the games themselves have been. kind of blowouts. think the big surprise right now is probably Anaheim. If you've been able to stay up for those games, those have been really good games. And now Vegas, you know, they don't have Mark Stone going. So it's basically the Anaheim call right now. The little Rocky in the NHL right now. But yeah, it's been an interesting playoffs. I think it's going to set up for some really nice conference finals once we get there. know, Carolina is basically getting a two week vacation before they're going to have to play again. So we'll see how that affects them. I think that could be a negative effect on Carolina two weeks off in a sport that is based on rhythm. They're going to be, they're going to be rusty. just are. if this series goes six or seven games, you're right. They're looking at possibly two full calendar weeks without playing a game. Yeah. And they're going to, know, whoever they face Montreal or Buffalo, you're gonna have two teams, you know, one of those two teams is going to come off a really good win. You know, in the series and it's not like Carolina is going to have a chance to ease their way into the series. They're going to go up against a team that's hot, you know, ready to play. Those Buffalo Montreal games have been really quick. So it's going to be an interesting Eastern conference final. So we'll see how Carolina does, especially with their questionable goaltending as it is, know, Frederick Anderson's played well so far, but with two weeks off, know, 10 days off or whatever he's going to have, you know, he's going to still have the magic he's had. So we'll, we'll. We'll cross that river once we get there, but we'll see how the rest of the second round plays out. today's podcast, we are going to talk about the NHL awards. There's a number of lightning members who are finalists for NHL awards, and we are going to talk with Jonah Aaron's from the Saber Report podcast. Jonah is going to get us the latest and greatest on the Buffalo Sabers as they try to come back against those Montreal Canadians that Justin was talking about. We're going to talk. with Jonah a little bit more in detail about that in our interview that we did this morning. But Justin, let's start with the NHL awards. The first award is the heart Memorial trophy for the most valuable player. The finalists are Kuturov, Nathan McKinnon, Connor McDavid. Right now, McDavid is a minus one 58 betting favorite. What are your thoughts? Yeah, I think he kind of kind of snuck in there at the end. ⁓ You know, the way he played out over the last, would say 10 games or so. think he kind of clinched the award. kind of dragged Edmonton into the postseason. Uh, if you will, just with some of the things they were dealing with, like their goaltending situation, they, the fact that they were still able to make it. Um, and McDavid played really well down the stretch, whereas, you know, Kucherov kind of, you know, he played well. It was kind of like the playoff. He played well, but he didn't play up to his usual standards. So I think, you know, heading into April, I had Kucherov as a front runner. I think McDavid did enough to steal it. Out of the three, McKinnon probably had the most consistent season. ⁓ but I don't think he had the highs or lows that McDavid or Kucherov had. ⁓ so yeah, I'm going to go with probably McDavid picks up another one. It's like six for him now or five or something. I that'll be five, but McKinnon was the favorite, the betting favorite for most of the year. It wasn't until the very end of his point total started the fall. Kucherov missed a couple of those games in April, which really hurt. his chances of winning the point scoring race as well. But you're right. McDavid really carried Edmonton, almost carried them to a division title. Justin Andre Vasileski is looks like the runaway favorite for the Vesna Trophy. His odds are minus 2200. So basically you have to bet $2200 to win 100. The other two are Ilya Sorokin and Jeremy Swamen. Those two are basically on the prices, right? They're contestants not appearing on stage. I think they're to their consolation prizes and go home. think that's the right call. I think Vasilevsky overall had the best season. he had a couple of dips to here and there, but nothing like even his bad games were still pretty good. So I think, yeah, he picks up another Vezda. ⁓ Be interested to see if he goes to the awards or not, or if he opts. I'm super interested to what the NHL does this year. Cause like last year they gave the players the option of not going to the awards and having special in-house kind of awards to it. And that's how Kuturov got his. Um, think it was at the Lindsay last year that he won. Um, you know, they presented to him after practice. Yeah. It's funny. They were talking about, there's a video about it. They were planning on giving it to him, you know, after he skated in the practice, cause they knew every day he's, you know, it was. Two weeks after the season was over, they still know he's going be on the ice. It's the one day he chose not to be on the ice. So had to come up with an excuse to get him in to the arena to present it to him because they had brought all the players in and everything. But ⁓ yeah, I think Vasilevsky wins that one going away. I think he deserves it. You know, good seasons for Sorokin. ⁓ Still kind of surprised Charlie Lindgren isn't in there. I think that's kind of expectations more than anything else with Washington missing the playoffs. If they had made the playoffs, I think he probably would have been a finalist because he had a really good year. And so. that he'll probably be the hard luck loser in this one. But, ⁓ yeah, I like Vasily winning. mentioned the Ted Lindsay award. Kuturov again is a finalist there. It's Macklin Celebrini for San Jose and Connor McDavid for Edmonton. Now this is voted on by the NHLPA. And as you see for the most valuable player, it's Nathan McKinnon, not Macklin Celebrini. I think Celebrini is going to get a lot of votes, but I still think it's going to be McDavid. See this one, I think Kuturov wins. I think when you talk to them, when you hear players talk about their fellow brethren, you get so much respect from the other players. They always talk about how he is the toughest player to play against, how good he is on the ice. I could see a little split award here with McDavid taking the heart and Kutrov taking the Lindsay. ⁓ Just because he does get such respect from the fellow players. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see McKinnon win it. Either he gets a ton of respect from other players. He plays. It is fun because it's there's such opposite styles of play. know, McKinnon is one of these guys who just blows past you with powers past you to score his goals. Whereas Kutrov almost kind of like lulls you to sleep a little bit. You know, he kind of cruises down the ice. He's almost at a standstill yet he whips that pass across to the back post and it's in the net. So it is two contrasting styles to how they rack up their points. But yeah, both would be deserving winners. Honestly, out of all three, I'd have no problem with any of them. I don't think. Celebrini is quite the best player in the league yet, but he's right up there. I think he would have been more so in the MVP ⁓ battle for the team. But yeah, I could see any of this re-winning it. I got no problem with it. think if San Jose had made it to the playoffs, Celebrini would be a finalist for the heart. Just my own opinion on that. Justin, best defensive forward Anthony Cirelli. out there along with Brock Nelson from Colorado, but the odds on favorite is Nick Suzuki from the Montreal Canadians right now minus 600 is Suzuki and part of the reason there. I know the award is called best defensive forward, but Nick Suzuki had a hundred points this season. That means a lot for voters. It just does. That's the way NHL voting is always gone. I don't see any way Suzuki doesn't win this award. The only thing I argue against Suzuki is he doesn't kill penalties. If you're looking at a best defensive forward, and I know it's kind of nitpicking a little bit, I think he's got to be out there shorthanded. And I understand why he doesn't kill penalties. St. Louis is really regimented on what he wants his top line players doing, and he doesn't want them out there killing penalties if he's got other people who can do it. That being said, if you're going to be in running for a best defensive forward award, I think you've got to kill penalties. ⁓ And he just doesn't do it. So yeah, he probably wins. Cause like you said, it's always the best defensive forward. He scores a lot of points, right? ⁓ and the interesting thing in Sorelli's case is that I don't think this was his best defensive year. I don't think he was the best defensive forward on the Lightning. ⁓ I honestly, I would have probably put Hegel or even Pontus Holmberg above him. If you look at some of the numbers, as far as expected goals against, you know, shots against things like that, it wasn't, I think Sorelli should have won it last year, honestly. I think that was one of his best offensive years, but anytime you got Alexander Barkov winning, mean, and this is just a placeholder win because Barkov is all hurt. Basically. This is the one year everybody has a chance, right? It's kind of like when Patrice Bergeron was in the league, right? It's like, if he's hurt this year, we have a chance. else. Exactly. Yeah. Cause we know next year we're not going to have a chance, right? Barkov is going to be back to doing what he's doing, which is honestly being the best defensive forward in the league. You know, that's, that's what Barkov is. So yeah, Suzuki probably wins. And like you said, a lot of it's going to be based on that offense, which, you know, if you believe the best defense is a good offense, then there you go. I think Sorelli would probably finish second. I wouldn't be surprised to see that. ⁓ Brock Nelson had a good year, but he's also, you know, on a good team as well. He's kind of got the Sorelli problem. He's got a lot of good players around him too. So yeah, I think it's Suzuki, Sorelli, then we call this in college, the best defensive forward who scores at least 70 points award. Exactly. Yeah. It's kind of like, you know, which we'll probably bring up next with the, ⁓ the defensive award. You know, you got to, at some point you got to split it out. It's got to, you got to have the best defensive defenseman and the best offensive defenseman. That's what it is right now. So there's one more member of the lightning organization eligible for an award. That's the Jack Adams award. It's John Cooper, John Cooper plus one 65. Lindy rough minus 200 for the coach of the year award and Dan Muse from Pittsburgh plus 5,000 Dan Muse again, if you're on the prices, right? You're a contestant not appearing on stage. I think it's Lindy roughs award. They won the division. hadn't made the playoffs in forever. It's a great story. He did a hell of a job with that Buffalo team to get them where they are as good of a job as John Cooper did. It's Lindy roughs award. Yeah, I think Cooper's only chance is kind of a lifetime. The writers, you know, decided it's a lifetime achievement award and he's been kind of, you know, I don't want to say screwed over in the past, but he's missed out on a couple of years where he probably should have won. And they just decided that, this is the year, know, you did a really good job with all the injuries, but I think you're right. think it's Lindy Ruff's. Lindy Ruff's award to win or lose. And again, deserved it. Very deserved ⁓ what he did with Buffalo this year. And I kind of kid that, you know, The Jack Adams is the goal is the coach that had the best goaltender in the league award, you know, because there's usually a pretty good correlation between good goaltending and winning the Jack Adams. But, know, rough did it really without, you know, he doesn't have a number one. Yeah. UPL they thought was going to be the number one. He had some injury issues, you know, you got Alex Lyon in there. So, um, yeah, cast of characters really stop at bucks for them this year. So for them to be as successful as they were without a solid number one goaltender. really plays to his coaching. ⁓ so I think rough wins it. It's well-deserved good for him. And then he gets fired within two years because that's the history of the award. Justin rapid fire will go through the other awards that do not involve lightning players. The Norris trophy for the best all around the fenceman Rasmus Dilley for Buffalo, kale McCarr for Colorado, ski for the Columbus blue jackets. And it's Warren ski, the heavy favorite. Minus 2000. I don't see any way he doesn't win that one. Yeah. And again, this is kind of the best defense when who scores, you know, 70 points, 60 points or whatever. think Rolensky wins it. I got no problem with that. I don't think anybody else is really in the conversation this year. I'm sure if you look at the pure defensive numbers, there's some cases we can make for other people. Yeah. I think he wins. You know, Dahlien, whatever. Yeah. He's a good story. I think he's a better fit for the Masterson. ⁓ but yeah, so we'll the Calder for the best rookie, Ivan Demidoff trying to become the second straight Canadian to win the award, Matthew Schaefer for the New York Islanders, who is the biggest favorite of any award on the board minus 6,666. So if you feel like winning a hundred bucks and you have a little over 6,000 in cash to spare, you can put it on Matthew Schaefer and then Beckett Sinekke for the Anaheim Ducks. Is there anything? we need to talk about, it's got to be Schaeffer. No, as someone who's currently a proud owner of you know, Matthew Schaeffer rookie card, I really hope it's him. I think it's going be interesting. It's going to be a defenseman two years in a row, ⁓ but I think it's well deserved. I mean, he's doing stuff that you haven't seen a teenage defenseman doing in years. know, Lane Hudson had a good year last year, but I think Schaeffer's even dwarfed what he did on the ice as a defenseman. And I think Beckett's Tonecki, I think he's done like... enough that in many years, he probably would be a betting favorite. He had a really good year for Anaheim. And as often as I get his name confused with the wonderful John Cena movie, Ricky Stoenicki. Yeah. movie was that? ⁓ that was like an Amazon, direct Amazon. It was actually not bad. It was one of those movies where I appreciated John Cena as an actor. I was like, this kid knows what he's doing. It was, it was, it was an okay movie, but it made me laugh out loud at parts. The name Ricky Stanicky makes me laugh. then anytime I hear Bennett's name, the same thing, it just brings it to my mind. And then Demidoff, you know, he had a good start to the year. I think he kind of faded a little bit as the year went on. You know, he got bumped down a couple of lines, but again, I think he did enough that in many years he'd be a solid contender, but he just ran into the defensive juggernaut that is Matthew Schaefer this year. So well deserved for the Islander defenseman. Two other awards, the Masterson Award. Basically it's perseverance. Someone who's gone through a tough time. Rasmus Deline for the Sabres, Gabriel Landiscauig for Colorado and Jonathan Taves for Winnipeg. You could easily choose any of these three, but I'm going to go with Landiscauig for as much time as he missed. He missed almost three years and he came back and he's still a really good player. Yeah. I mean, anytime you're taking an experimental surgery. to fix a lingering problem like that and you come back and you play not only the fact that you play at the NHL, but you produce at a high level after that much time off. think he's the front runner. think, again, I think all three of them are deserving. And master said, I think it should be, should be one of those awards where everybody who's nominated gets it. Cause the struggles that everybody goes through, I think are usually pretty well documented and well-deserved. mean, Dave's going through the long COVID and you just his journey to back down the ice is, you know, is pretty good as well. ⁓ but yeah, I think, ⁓ you're right. I Landis cog wins this one well deserved. the final award is the lady Bing award. still think when they announced the word, they should play the song. You're my lady. That's the last time I think anyone wants to hear me sing on this. Hopefully that's not a reoccurring bit, but my, my, my, wife will. be more than happy to say I should never sing again, just to our podcast, our rules, it's Cole Caulfield from Montreal, Anze Kopitar from LA and Jake Sanderson from Ottawa. I think this is Kopitar. He's retiring. This is his going away present. Yeah, that was my thoughts exactly. It's a nice little swan song for Kopitar who has had a great career. think, I don't think he gets enough credit for how good of a hockey player he is. Part of it's that West Coast bias. You know, he plays most of his games after a lot of the media on the East Coast has kind of gone to bed. And so I think he's put together a hell of a career. If he wins it, you know, great. It'd be a great way to give him one final salute, you know, from the league. So yeah. I could see him winning it. know, the lady being, it's just one of those awards that you're like, okay. Yeah. And it's the nicest guy in the NHL, you know, fantastic. That's, that's exactly what you want to be known for. But, it's the one guy who has five penalty minutes all season. Exactly. Yeah. It's like, yeah. Yeah. It's funny. Cause when a guy like Braden fight, Braden point gets into a fight, you're like, Oh, there goes the lady being free in this year. You're not eligible, not eligible anymore. So yeah, it's the guy who doesn't take as many hooking penalties as the other guy. still puts up 60 points or whatever, but yeah, well deserved for Coupotard. Yeah, he's had a great career and ⁓ should add one more award to the cabinet. Justin, we were joined by Jonah Ahrens earlier today from the Saber Report podcast. He's going to give us the lowdown on the Montreal Buffalo series from the Buffalo perspective. Here's that interview. We always try to take a look around the NHL and look at the different playoff series that are out there. And today we are joined by Jonah Ahrens of the Sabre Report podcast. Jonah, thanks for joining us today. And it's been a late night for you, bud. Yeah, I wish, I wish I was in a little bit better spirits after game three, but no, I'm happy to be here, Jason. And I very much appreciate the, the invite and always happy to talk some Sabres hockey. Jonah, this was. Quite an eventful year for the Sabres. First of all, they hadn't been into the playoffs since 2011. I want to take us back to training camp. What were your initial thoughts on this team? know, myself and my co-hosts and a lot of people in the community. The off season for us, it wasn't good enough. The summer that the Sabres had had, the additions they made while not individually bad, just didn't really hit. ⁓ you know, clear the bar that you wanted it to. But when you got to training camp, there were a lot of projections, a lot of analytical models that were more hopeful on the Sabres than the wider audience had them around like a 90 point team. And there was, there was potential there. mean, we know there's always been potential with the Sabres. And for the first time, there was maybe something underlying there. So in training camp, that was kind of the hope. ⁓ Now going into the season, obviously things then quickly spiraled a little bit. They were last place in the conference and, you know, then there was, there was a big change around December, but you know, around training camp, there was, there was the makings of a good team, but definitely, definitely not the 109 point Atlantic division winners that they ended up being. Early December, this team was in last place in the Atlantic division. Most teams fire their head coach. see that Columbus, they fire Rick bonus. They go on a run. Buffalo fired their general manager, Kevin Adams. Now the numbers suggest that that could have led to this surge. They had a 40 game surge, 32, six and two. It was the best 40 game surge since 1996. They had a 10 game winning streak and eight game winning streak. Is there a correlation between the firing of Adams and this team taking off or is it just more circumstance? Yeah, it was, it was the morning of December 9th. said 11, 14 and four last place in the conference, ⁓ were on the verge of possibly being swept on the West coast. They were, they were in a low spot. they, at the start of that West coast swing, the rumors started to percolate about, about Kevin Adams possibly being on the way out. ⁓ And then, you know, they won two of those games on the West coast. Then Kevin Adams was fired or they won. They won three of those, those three West coast games. Then Kevin Adams was fired and they, and they really never looked back. There was, there was other things at the time that maybe signaled a better stretch of play coming. ⁓ You know, they, they had gotten Josh Norris back relatively recently. ⁓ Alex Lyon had been kind of at the back part of a three goalie rotation back then and he wasn't getting games like he is now. And on top of that, their play had kind of very much improved ever since Rasmus Dalin had returned from a leave of absence ⁓ in mid November. That being said, the firing of Kevin Adams was the spark. It's, it's, it's, there's really no other way to describe it. You. can't really make something like that tangible. You know, what a firing really does to a player, to a team, to a system. But it's hard to look at that. And we sit so often in hockey, we see the head coaching bumps. This was a GM bump. It's just, what it is. Clearly there was a breath of fresh air. GM Yarmou Kekalyanin came in notoriously and basically told all the players, there's not a single one of you that isn't expendable. I think that lit a fire. And I think overall they really began to play for their jobs a little bit. Once they got the ball rolling, then it just snowballed and snowballed and you pile that with some good goaltending and a healthy lineup finally. And you know, you have yourself the most historic stretch in 30 years. know, lot of Tampa fans did not take the Sabre seriously coming out of the Olympic break, the Lightning. were on their own very hot stretch. think it was 21, one and one, but there were two games that I think really turned the tide. One, there was a six to win by Buffalo in Tampa in late February, but then there was the notorious eight, seven game that had a little bit of everything from fisticuffs, high scoring offense. Buffalo erased a late two goal deficit in your mind. Was there a turning point in this season to where you're like, This team is really good. think the Tampa eight to seven game was the, okay, this team is at the very, like this team could do damage in the playoffs. I legitimately don't think anybody believed the Sabres would still come away with the division. Maybe until they defeated Tampa four to two later in March, or I believe that might've been in April. April, believe. Yeah. Yeah. The eight to seven game was really like, okay, this team can go pound for pound with some of the best. That was, I think that's when people started to believe he was right towards the end of the season. was post Olympic break. ⁓ everybody in Buffalo knew the magnitude of that matchup at the time. was the biggest regular season game in however many years. Cause if they want, because if they won that game, they would jump up in the first place for the first time. And it was the, was the first time they were in first place in the Atlantic division, not in the month of November in history. like in the Atlantic division, which was formed back in 2014. Like it had been very, very long. They obviously had a great start to that one. Tampa came back, but then the Sabres themselves roared back. was just, it told the story of this team, which a lot of it is perseverance. And I think that's going to be a theme, you know, given where they are in the Montreal series, that this team just has an unbelievable ability to bounce back. It's really a down, but never out team. always find a way. It's somebody new every night that Tampa game. was Josh Stone and multiple goals. Jason Zucker had multiple goals. It's, it's, it's very much a next man up. Everybody eats, you know, that Sabres have this, this phrase it's everybody ropes, everybody rides. And, and that's, that's what you saw as the season went on, you know, Tate Thompson, Rasmus Dahlien, great seasons, but it's, it's a team that was really built. by a foundation of just an all around good lineup. You had mentioned Rasmus Dallin, finalist for the Norris Trophy, but for every Batman you need a Robin and Bowen Byrom has really been a pleasant surprise. They got him in the Casey Middlestadt deal a couple of years ago. Tell us about Byrom and just how much he means to that Sabres blue line. When I touched on how Sabres fans thought that the team didn't have a great off season. Part of that was many and I'll throw myself right in there. They thought maybe Bowen Byrom should have been dealt, that they should have looked to move on from him. They did, yes, yes. There was contract things there, he needed a new deal, but also it was a player that, it's hard to describe, but you call him Robin and that really is the best way to describe him. He... is I've always compared him to Matt Dumba, like prime Matt Dumba, where if you looked at that Minnesota Wild team, had, you know, you had your Spurgeon, your Jonas Brodin. ⁓ He was the guy that was, you know, he was scoring the pretty goals. He was finishing at a very elite clip. And this year, it's really come together for him where it doesn't matter who he was playing with. You know, in the past, a big reason for that was he wasn't a defenseman that looked good with anybody but Rasmus Donnelly. Now he looks good with everybody ⁓ and can play with everybody. And he's a guy that if he converts those looks that he gets, if Rasmus Dahlien, if Owen Power, and now if even Matthias Samuelson are creating looks and you're getting the puck to Bowen Byrom, he is, there's a good chance he's going to score that for you. And in the playoffs, you have seen that. You know, we discussed ⁓ on our podcast, the best stretch of hockey in Bowen Byrom's career was truly the 2022 playoffs with the Colorado Avalanche. He was fantastic with that team. And here you are seeing it again. He is scoring out of he's already tied the Buffalo Sabres singles, single playoff goal record by defensemen. Really? He's got four goals. He needs one. It's surprised a lot of us too, but it's true. He needs one more goal. And I believe it was a four way tie. And he makes history. He has been fantastic on the offensive side of things. He's carried his own load on terms of defense. He's risen to the occasion. He's a playoff riser and there's really no complaints about his game. If you were looking, I haven't looked at my, looked myself, I'm sure with the Sabres-Kahn-Smith odds, he's either one, two or three. He has, there's just not enough good things that can be said about him. Well, let's talk about this Montreal series. The series got off to a great start for you guys with the game one victory, but since then you've been outscored 11 to three. One of the advanced stats I'm noticing in this series, and it's not a surprise because that's one of the reasons you went out and got Sam Carrick was for the faceoff circle. The Sabres have been getting killed in the faceoff. Montreal winning 60 % of the faceoffs through the first three games. Is that something that's concerning you moving forward? You know, I am a guy that with face-offs, I say they don't matter until they matter. But the ones that have mattered in this series, the Sabres have not won. And the biggest thing you've seen through, at least if you watched Game 3, ⁓ special teams, haven't decided this series until last night. The Sabres power play, which did get a goal, still wasn't quite good enough. The Montreal Canadiens power play was going Harlem Globetrotters on the Sabres. And a part of that is the face-offs. The Sabres, especially on their own power play, have had so much trouble trying to break the puck in, whether it's on a controlled entry, dumping the puck in, whatever. And they've been forced into attempting that process because they can barely win a draw. And on the penalty kill side of things, it's the same thing. And don't be wrong, at times the face-offs are so skewed, Montreal is just inevitably gaining possession. It's definitely, it's a big discrepancy in this series. The acquisition of Sam Kerrick was an attempt to fix that. But now he's clearly dealing with something, whether it was ⁓ what he picked up in the regular season or whether it was Arbor Jack guy punching him in the dying seconds of last night. He's definitely picked up something now, so he's probably still gonna be very limited in that lineup. So it's really on the Sabres centers of, know, Tate Thompson, Josh Norris and Ryan McCloud to figure that out. And obviously they've struggled. Lindy Ruff has a ton of experience as a coach. He was the coach of the Sabres back in 99 when they ended up losing to the Dallas Stars in the Stanley Cup finals. What adjustments do you think that he will make after the first three games? If you were to go back and go to that Tampa Bay eight to seven game, I believe you'd be looking at the same exact Sabres lineup as has been iced in these playoffs. Lini Ruff's been very consistent with his lineup all season, especially since December. And for good reason. They had a historic stretch. They did not have to change very much. But this little lull that they're in, it's been a little long time. I won't say a long time coming, but it's been building for a little bit. They weren't exactly rolling three lines, not Their top three lines weren't all looking great at the same time against Boston. There was a little give and take. And now in the Montreal series, really only one of their lines, that being the line with Zach Benson, Josh Stone and Josh Norris, has really helped them. It's probably time for a legitimate adjustment. Ruff believes in his guys. I understand why he's kept things consistent. I understand why he's kept a lot of the chemistry the same. ⁓ but now you are kind of, you're, close to the verge, right? It's only a two, one series lead. ⁓ I think there's going to be a lot of overreactions today on the Buffalo side of things. And a lot of people proclaiming Montreal has this series one. It's only a one game series. Lot of hockey left. So much hockey left. Yes. It's very, very tight all season long. ⁓ it's one game. ⁓ but I think Lindy rough now is in the mode where. Some changes should be considered. The Sabres top line has faced a lot of criticism this series and for good reason. It was nice to see Tage Thompson get on the board last night, but aside from that, it's not operating, I think, at quite the level you want. And then their third line of Ryan McLeod, Jack Quinn, and Zucker, and Jason Zucker, it's really given them next to nothing in terms of actual production at five on five. These playoffs, Jason Zucker hasn't played much, many minutes the last two games. It's making you think there might be an element there overall the top nine it really needs a jolt It could use an adjustments and you know, that's what I'm looking for, you know for Lindy rough You know the power the power plays been the big one ⁓ But it's kind of just late in the game for that this this has been an issue kind of riding with them all season I don't think simple adjustments are gonna be Nearly enough to get that back on track so for me the consistent lineup that rough has, has really trusted. It's, it could use a different look heading into game four. One of the big changes Lindy rough did make was in the, in the Boston series, took out Yuko Pekka Luka and replaced them with Alex Lyon. thought Alex Lyon played a brilliant first period kept the Sabres in the game in game three, but going long-term is Pekka Luka and your better goaltender. Long-term, think, you know, maybe just because of the age, you would say yes. ⁓ It's definitely a conversation for the offseason. The Saviors have a lot of question marks in terms of long-term, goaltending, Lyon. He has another year on his deal next year, but he's getting a little up there in age. Luka is still in his mid-20s. Colton Ellis just broke into the league this year and showed some really ⁓ positive signs. And then they've still got Devin Levi down on the AHL. Uh, you know, long-term, Luka didn't, like I said, yeah, he's probably still your guy, but in right now, and you know, we had, uh, right, myself and my, brother on our show last night, we, you we had a conversation about, know, should the Sabres look to make a change there? I don't, I don't think they're quite there yet. I don't think they're quite at the point when they made the switch from Luka in, uh, as they are now with Lion. I think you still, you saw so many signs of life last night with Lion. He kept that team in it for the first period. ⁓ did he play his best hockey the last two periods? Maybe not, but it was a shooting gallery. was a game Montreal very much controlled. I don't think the Sabres should make the change there. He's been very, very, he was fantastic for them against Boston. And even in this series, he's still been fairly solid. For a guy who gave up five goals yesterday, the six goal was the empty netter by Newhook. I actually thought he played really well. I thought the first period he kept a minute, the lane Hudson dished a Caulfield was just sick. I mean, my God, what a play. mean, Hudson made a couple plays in that game yesterday that could have easily have turned to chances back the other way for Buffalo, but he's just so talented. One, the Calder last year. He is just phenomenal, but I want to talk about that off season real quick, Jonah, before I get your predictions for the rest of the series. Alex Tuck, Western New York native, a Syracuse boy is a free agent making 4.5 right now. Does he resign and at what number did the Sabres want him at? was a rumor, well, it wasn't a rumor. I believe it was around the time Kevin Adams got fired. Alex Tuck was, Alex Tuck was, and I believe still is, he's looking for the Adrian Kempé contract. eight years, $10.6 million. When Adams was fired, they were offering him Tage Thompson money, like eight years, $7 million. Very much a lull ball. It's no surprise Tuck didn't take it. Alex Tuck's been underpaid possibly since the moment he signed his extension in Vegas all those years ago. He's been on one of the best bargain deals in the NHL. ⁓ I don't think he is budging an inch. from his $10.6 million ask and he shouldn't. mean, I'm sure you've looked at the free agent market this upcoming There's not many. He is number one, at least on the forward side of things. It's not even close. Everybody will be gunning for him should he hit the market. And there's really no reason to not hold out. I, we made this prediction after the Boston series. Maybe we were sipping the recency Kool-Aid because he was so good in that series. I think it seemed to get crazy and offer him 11. Maybe even higher in terms of AAV. He's gonna get paid. I've been very much on the camp of I don't think the Sabres need to sign themselves to that. Zach Benson has emerged in these playoffs. I feel like on a national scale. know, obviously Josh Doan had a great first season with Buffalo. Kulik who's been out the whole year after discovering a blood clot back in ⁓ October. He'll be back next year. Kosta Hellenius who Many, including myself, think should get into the lineup during these playoffs. He'll be in the lineup next year. And then, and then Noah Aslan as well. Like they have a good crop of youth that I think not that it will immediately make them better, but they could survive an Alex Tuck departure. Now there is still a part of me that thinks the Sabres are going to cave in a little bit. There was a report post trade deadline that the Sabres had caved in their offer a little bit. My Guess is they want him at about seven or eight years at about $9 million. Like I said, I don't think talk is budging from 10.6. I am willing to bet his agent thinks he can get him as high as 11 plus million dollars. It's gone on this long. You would think that if the Sabres were going to offer that contract to get them, they would have done it by now. Do you think there could be a little bit of. Buyers remorse from the Jeff Skinner deal that they're like, Hey, we're paying a guy. have three more years left on his buyout. We don't want to be in that situation again. As tuck gets older. Do you think there's a little bit of that concern in the organization? I'm sure there is from their owner, Terry Pagula, you know, next season, Jeff Skinner's buyout will cost the team $6 million. It's the highest year. It's the highest year it's going to cost them, but yeah, it's next year. It's, it's, it's dipping into their Alex Tuck money. And I think it's very much, it's, it's tale as old as time. You know, the 30 or the, the pending UFA about to turn 30, I believe he actually turned 30 yesterday. 30 forward, do you sign him long-term and you just see very much time after time after time. It does not work out, at least in the long-term, that the end of the contract almost never looks good. The question is always, Hey, can you get four to five good years and then worry about the bad stuff? And I understand that and I think there's an argument for it, but I think it's hard as a Sabres fan, it's hard to not look at the Jeff Skinner contract as you know, it's, it's a obstacle to you next year. And do you want to go through that again, especially somebody like Alex Tuck, who is, he is a big, fast and physical player. mean, those, depending on how you see his play style, those play styles don't exactly age the best. know, it's a decline for like that. He's got a lot of miles on those tires. And you can never really predict it. I think like, you know, you can look at like Timo Meyer, who was dynamite for San Jose, all of sudden got to New Jersey, dealt with some injuries and now he's kind of, he's not what he was in San Jose. think like Pavel Bucznowicz is kind of in the same camp or like for St. Louis kind of had a very steep decline after being a very, very elite player. And I just, I worry about that with tuck. I do, it's hard not to worry about that. He's still a fantastic player. Any team that's going to get him is going to be very happy with the player they got next year, the year after. that's should he leave, obviously. But for me, I'm just looking at, I'm looking at the history. I'm looking at the fact, I think the Sabres have a good crop of talent to replace him with. And I think, I think they can survive this. Jonah, there's a lot of hockey left in this series. They're only down two games to one. What's your prediction for the rest of the series? I think it has. I've always thought it's going to go the distance. It's going to go seven games. I think these teams, I said coming into the series, there is no, it's a 50 50 matchup. ⁓ it can be skewed by things like special teams, power play as we've seen. But I think these two teams are very much neck and neck. I think it's hard to look at what the Sabres did. Like I feel like people do forget at times. That they won the division, that they were the best team of the Atlantic in the regular season in terms of regular season points. And I feel like way too many people are going to be writing them off after today. And I get it. Two very dominant games by Montreal, but game one was dominant by, by Buffalo. And I think they're going to bounce back in game four and then it's going to become a best of three. I, I think we're going to be in Buffalo for game seven. ⁓ now I do think the Savers are going to come away with it. Am I biased? Maybe a little, but. You're allowed to be. I think the Sabres are, they're going to pick themselves up fairly well. I'm sure you know, the whistles tend to go away in the playoffs as you go further into a series. And there's going to be less, there's going be less opportunity for Montreal to dominate the pace of play on the power play and such. And I think that's where the Sabres are going to be able to, get an edge. I think at five on five, I do still think they're the better team. They kind of have to, like I said, they have to pick themselves up. Uh, their defense have been fairly mitigated in this series and that's the core of their offense. They run it through the blue line. Uh, so as soon as, as soon as they get back to that, I think they're going to be back in this, uh, Sabres and seven. That's, that's, that's where that's my prediction. My pre, my pre series prediction was Buffalo in six. My cohost said Montreal in six. I still look at the fact that Montreal is getting so much production from Zach Bolduc, Alex Newhook. Kirby doc at what point does that dry up? These are third and fourth line guys that they are getting big time production. They're top line Suzuki, Slav Koski. They're not producing a whole lot at even strength. It's all on the power play. Cole Caulfield got just his second goal of the playoffs and it was pretty much because Lane Hudson decided to dance throughout the entire Buffalo defense. I think that If Buffalo can find a way to stay out of the penalty box, I think this is a really tough series. Like you said, and I could, I still think this is going to go six, maybe seven games. So Jonah, tell us about the Saber Report podcast. The Saber Report podcast was a ⁓ show birthed out of love by myself and my cohost Christian Kowalski. And along the way we, added my brother, JP Ahrens. The Saber Report was something we started. back in 2020, this'll get ya. It was a few weeks after Taylor Hall had signed with the Sabres. We've been fans our whole lives, but we always loved being a part of the Sabres community and we wanted a voice in that. And that's when we started the Sabres, it was called Time, the Royal Report. Soon we changed it to the Sabres Report. And over time, as the Sabres got more involved with their post-Eichel rebuild, our voices... It became louder, more people started following us. We started engaging with more people and that kind of culminated back in September of 2022 with the beginning of our podcast. And ever since then, it's been a weekly show that we just talk about the team. like to think it's not very, ⁓ it's three diehard fans having a fun conversation. I like to think we have good analysis and good takes. Some people disagree. If you read our YouTube comments, people disagree a lot, but. We have an incredible passion for the team. still love them. No matter what happens in this series, we will be there talking about them. We love our fans. love talking to them and we love, we love the hockey team. always will. Jonah, could say I've, I've caught a number of your podcasts. You guys do an excellent job of breaking down the Sabres for those out there. You can catch them on any podcast platform, their YouTube channel. caught the episode today on Apple. There's all on Spotify. We're going to put in our show notes everywhere that you can get. The Saber Report podcast. Jonah, first of all, thanks for joining us today. Appreciate the time and best of luck to your Sabers. Thanks. I was, you know, I have to say this one thing. I was very much hoping, and I feel like we were very much robbed of a Buffalo Sabers Tampa Bay Lightning series. After what happened in the regular season, I'm very upset we did not get it in the playoffs. I wish this was under the circumstances of a series preview, but I'm happy to hop on. Talk anyways. Discuss is very fun and I appreciate the invite. Anytime Jonah. Hope to have you on again. We'd like to thank Jonah Aaron's from the Sabres Report podcast for joining us. Hope you got a little bit of insight on those Buffalo Sabres. know everyone that's your favorite team after that eight to seven game earlier in March. Justin, tell us what's going on over at Raw Charge. I kind of still wrapping up the season a little bit. We'll be talking about some of the players we did. You have a nice article on the Kittacrew trough over the weekend, just talking about his heart trophy nomination. And those wonderful trade rumors that everybody likes to stir up this time of year. I'll probably do something on Sorelli this year as well, you know, Sorelli's year as well coming up this week. stop by. We'll have the daily links post and just kind of go from there. If there's any news that comes out. next podcast is going to drop on Sunday. Make sure to Stay tuned to raw charge www.rawcharge.com. You can get the latest and greatest from Justin and his team over there for Justin. I'm Jason Lankes. Thanks for joining us today and go bolts. Go bolts. Thank you for listening to back checking the bolts. We are free and available on all platforms, including Apple, Spotify, I heart radio, Amazon, YouTube, and Deezer. If you enjoyed it, please be sure to subscribe and leave a review. You can follow Justin on blue sky at raw charge.com. You can follow the show on X at Tampa underscore bolts underscore pod and on Facebook, Instagram and YouTube at back checking the bolts. If you're interested in advertising on the show or partnering with us, You can find more information in the show notes or email Jason at backcheckingthebolts at yahoo.com.