Latest / Mike Check - A College Football Podcast / BIG GAME PREVIEW: OHIO STATE VS INDIANA
Transcript
- Jackson: Alright, so our first game of the week. Number four Ohio State, traveling to Indiana to take on the Hoosiers, who were number five in the country. Spread here is Ohio State minus three and a half. This is a rematch of the Big Ten Championship game last year, where Indiana got the best of Ohio State. Over under is fifty-one. What you guys what you guys thinking for this one? Davis: So this is actually the third straight year where both these teams match up as top five teams. Definitely didn't Jackson: Yeah. Davis: expect to say that like three or four years ago. it's incredible what Indiana has done and turned this program around. I think they're they're what, twenty two straight wins coming into this? Jackson: Yeah, yeah, they're close to the Big Ten record, I believe. Matthew: I believe if they win this game they tie Ohio State's twenty three games. Jackson: Okay. Yeah, so it's two teams that are both ranked in the top five. Ohio State does have the one loss against Texas, but just getting into it. To me, these two teams are like very different. Ohio State's kinda taking care of business against the lesser opponents, the teams they played. And Indiana's kinda looked looked a little rough against their their weak non con schedule that has been So famously broadcasted throughout the college football world, I feel like. So, yeah. The game on the road last week, Indiana almost lost to Nebraska. Nebraska had them on the ropes. Davis and I talked about that the big plays at the end really were what ultimately pushed them over the finish line. But other than that, I feel like Nebraska kinda had them for most of that game. So it'll be interesting to see if Indiana kinda shakes out of whatever lull they've been in and can put up a fight against Ohio State. Davis: Yeah. Matthew: Yeah, I think that you know, you have Jeremiah Smith who's the odds on favor to be the Heisman trophy winner so far through the season. you're not gonna stop him if you're Indiana, but all they have to limit him as much as they can and just keep him from having like a crazy monster game. I he's gonna get his catches, he's gonna get his yards, he's done that all year. But you've gotta take away the rest of the offense if you're gonna have a chance in this game if you're Indiana. they've been good at stopping the run all year. the number seven rush defense only allowing seventy-five yards a game. Ohio State has been a little iffy running the ball. just ha having just 165 yards a game on average. Like it'll be interesting to see if they can generate enough push against this Indiana front seven to support their passing game. Davis: Yeah, like you said, Indiana's been great against the run. Ohio State's really struggled, but you know, that offense runs through Jeremiah Smith and Julian Saiyan. one interesting thing is that Indiana actually ranks a hundred and fifth in explosive pass rate given up per game. So, if Ohio State can find Jeremiah Smith deep, which, you know, they always they'll test it early. think that Ohio State, if they connect, they Jackson: Take the point. Davis: can come out to a early lead against Indiana. Jackson: Yeah, and and I mentioned it a second ago. I I think obviously this is the the best team that Indiana has faced so far this season. people are giving Josh Hoover a lot of praise for what he's done so far. I know he's kind of people think he's fixed the turnover problem that he had, coming over from T C U. That was a big issue when they went after him in the portal. And honestly I really think it's because he hasn't been tested much. I mean They just they just haven't played anybody. And I think people are giving Nebraska a lot of credit for what they did last week against Indiana. But I think to me it's more of like maybe maybe Nebraska is like who we thought they were. We talked about them being five and and we all expected them to be five and 'cause they didn't play anybody and You know, we expected the loss to Indiana and people are saying, Nebraska's pretty good now 'cause they only lost to Indiana by three points, but maybe Nebraska is who we thought they were and Indiana is a little bit worse than than people think. So I'm not high on Indiana in this game. I know they kinda lean on their run game a lot to to try to pass the ball and and give Hoover those easy windows and kind of scheme things up for him to where he doesn't have to make a read. So Indiana's rush defenses that they face so far this season. Here's their rankings. North Texas ranks seventy-sixth. Howard is FCS school. They're not ranked. Western Kentucky, 132nd. Northwestern, 1011th. Rutgers, 138th, which is last. Nebraska, thirty-sixth, which, you know, they saw they sh we s they struggled last week against Nebraska. And then Ohio State ranks seventeenth. So I think it's gonna be a little bit of a wake up call for Indiana. I don't think they're gonna be able to run the ball well against Ohio State. And I think it's gonna force Josh Hoover to have to make some throws with his arms. So Davis: All right. You got the first pick here, I'll let you go. Jackson: Yeah, so I think that that's that makes that made it pretty clear who I'm picking. I'm not high on Josh Hoover. I think the talent is just too much. I think Ohio State gets the win here and covers the spread. I think also the redemption factor is is big in this game. You know, Ohio State lost in the Big Ten Championship to Indiana. I just I don't think there's, you know, nothing. I think there's something to that, I guess is what I'm saying. So ultimately I think it comes down to who has the better quarterback, and I think that's Julian Sands. Davis: Okay. I all I heard from you last week was how bad Josh Hoover was and I think you're not giving them enough cred credit. So I started to deep dive into the numbers a little bit and I wanna get your opinion on some things. So I'm gonna share my screen real quick. Jackson: You gonna try to expose me? Matthew: Yeah. Davis: I'm not trying to expose you. I'm just I'm just gonna get your thoughts on some stuff. Okay. So you talked about Josh Hoover's stats, and you didn't think that he was playing up to I guess what your expectations were of him and you think he struck struggled. So through the first three games against P4 opponents, he has a seventy percent completion percentage, seven hundred and fifteen yards, which come out to about two hundred and thirty-eight pass yards per game, nine point two yards per attempt, and eight touchdowns. I mean these numbers seem pretty good. Jackson: Look, I I just think it's not I mean the okay, so the p that's against P four schools? Davis: This is against P four schools. Jackson: Alright, so we're talking Northwestern, Rutgers and Nebraska? That's that's what we're talking about here. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Yeah, I just I mean yes, he Davis: All right, so here here here's the kicker. This was actually the first three games of Fernando Mendoza's season last year against P4 schools. This Jackson: Yeah, so Davis: is Josh Hoover's actual first three games. You have a little less completion percentage, you have the same exact yards, almost the same exact yards per attempt, one less touchdown, and two less interceptions. Jackson: Who who did Mendoza play his first? Davis: We don't have to get into that. Jackson: so well let me just save myself real quick because I don't know if we'll get that I think it may cut out with with the screen sharing thing. So Fernando Mendoza's first four games against P4 schools last year were Illinois, Iowa, who had a great defense last year, vintage Iowa defense that was on the road. On the road at Oregon and then Michigan State. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: So Gotcha. Davis: Yeah, I'm g I'm glad you I'm glad you brought that up. I didn't wanna I didn't wanna completely derail your point, but I do think I do think that Josh Hoover has been good. he ranks third in the Big Ten in completion percentage. I know you've devalued the competition that he's played, but regardless, he ranks second in yards per attempt in the Big Ten. one thing that is kind of In his Achilles heel is that he struggled against pressure. When pressured, that 69.5 completion percentage actually drops to 31.6, which is second to last in the Big Ten. so very evident just how bad he is against pressure. But I think that the silver lining here is that believe it or not, Ohio State's defense is actually. hadn't been great generating pressures. out of the 67 P4 teams, Ohio State's defense ranks 55th in sacks and 62nd in pressure rate. So Indiana's O line is good. Ohio State, while their defense is very good, they don't they aren't generating the pressure like we're used to. I think that we see a good day out of Josh Hoover. If I'm wrong, I expect to hear it from you on the next the next episode. But I like Indiana with the points here at home. I think these two teams are similar. So give yeah, give me the points. Jackson: You will hear it. And just to briefly touch back on the Mendoza thing, I think the biggest difference from last year's Indiana team to this year's Indiana team is the rushing game. I mean, that's the reason why I just read off how bad the rush defense they've faced so far this season have been. Because the first real team they they played that was decent against the run was Nebraska. Other than that, the second best team was North Texas. So we haven't really seen it yet with Indiana because of their their crappy non con. So but just to me so far this season I think the rushing offense for Indiana is not what it was. And I think last year they had the balance and they had the since they had the running game it just opened up a lot for Mendoza on the back end. So I think that was why he was able to be as successful as he was. But I'll shut up now. Matthew, what do you got? Matthew: Yeah. I I I agree with Jackson. I'm choosing to evaluate Josh Hoover on the Nebraska game more heavily than the other power four teams that he's played. And then and just in general evaluat mostly against Nebraska offensively, you know, sixty five yards on the ground and Hoover, if you take away those two explosive passes, he's ten for twenty for Probably a hundred and thirty yards. He had seventy five yard Davis: Yeah, a hundred and twenty yards less. Matthew: Yeah. Drop off a hundred and twenty yards, hundred and four so ten for t ten for twenty for a hundred and forty yards through most of that game. you can give him credit for the RPO, you know, seventy five yarder I guess, but the fourth down where they just didn't cover anybody and he got essentially forty free yards passing. I was not I was not overly impressed with Indiana. I think that if they struggle to run the ball against Ohio State, then even though they're not the best at getting pressure on the quarterback, I think it'll put them in obvious passing downs and then you're gonna have to make Josh Hoover go beat you on obvious passing downs and I think they'll have a little bit more success getting pressure on him. so I I I'm also leaning Ohio State in the points. I think they're a better team. I think they've shown that they can perform against better competition. You know, Indiana again, we've only had one game and like Jackson said, we don't really know if Nebraska is good because both of those teams, that's really the only good game that they played was against each other. So they both kind of you know it was it was a tight game, so we don't really know much about those teams yet until they play a second good team. we think they're good, but we don't know. So I'm gonna I'm gonna lean Ohio State.