Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 225: The Pattern Is Locked In. Now the Real Questions Begin for 2025–26 Weather with Gary Lezak

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225: The Pattern Is Locked In. Now the Real Questions Begin for 2025–26 Weather with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

0:00
We are breaking down the weather this morning with Gary Lezak and
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he is breaking down everything that is happening in the LRC in
0:07
the weather pattern. And at the end he gives us some
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very exclusive top secret information on how long he
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thinks the weather pattern actually is this year.
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And spoiler, it is a lot longer than it was last year.
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Gary is breaking down everything that we are seeing in the
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weather right now, what we can anticipate as we go into January
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and the rest of the year. Before we hop into today's
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episode, if you guys are watching on YouTube, you make
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sure you take a second to go subscribe to our channel and
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like this episode. And if you are watching on any
0:34
of our other podcasting platforms, if you can make sure
0:37
that you're following the show and go right and review it as
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well. And without further ado, let's
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go ahead and hear from Gary. Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily
0:49
Podcast, your go to source for the latest livestock markets,
0:53
industry insights and the updates shaping agriculture
0:56
today. I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a
0:58
passionate advocate for agriculture, here to keep you
1:01
informed and connected. Now let's dive into today's
1:04
episode. Gary, welcome back to another
1:14
podcast. How is life in beautiful
1:16
Colorado? It is great but scary today.
1:19
Today there is a highwind warning and as you know, the
1:23
weather pattern has set up for the season.
1:26
We'll talk all about this developing pattern and what it
1:28
might mean for the months ahead. We're we're learning more and
1:31
more about it. I'll give you some top secret
1:34
information here in just a few seconds.
1:36
But the pattern right now is a storm is coming across Montana
1:41
and North Dakota and it's causing the conditions for the
1:45
wind to really begin howling. I have a big presentation to
1:50
Missouri farmers today at 1:00 PM Central time, noon mountain
1:55
time. And that's about the time the
1:58
wind is going to pick up. Please don't knock out the power
2:01
because I'm doing a remote meeting.
2:03
And so, but the winds my gust as high as 90 mph today and they
2:09
will be probably that high in the foothills over the ridges.
2:14
And I'm real close to the foothills.
2:15
So I hope there's not a power outage, but there's a chance of
2:19
that today. Geez, Louise, It has been a
2:23
crazy weather pattern. Crazy out there.
2:27
What's what's happening with the weather pattern?
2:29
Gary, we're on the weather. What's what's going on with it?
2:32
What are you? Thought the weather pattern is
2:34
cycling. You've learned a little about it
2:35
in the last year and is cycling regularly.
2:39
We have learned more about what this pattern is and it's
2:43
important. It's still December, So what
2:46
does it mean for for pre planting, for planting, for
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planning for your planting season, growing and harvest?
2:55
We don't have every answer. We'll talk about these.
3:00
We've talked about these for the past year.
3:02
We did make the accurate predictions for last year for
3:07
any drought concerns or not. In most areas we did get it
3:11
right and it's four years in a row we've gotten it right.
3:15
That doesn't mean we are 100% predicting every single storm,
3:20
exactly how much rain is going to fall, how much snow is going
3:23
to fall. We raised the bar so high, some
3:25
people start to think what good is it?
3:27
I put a whole report out yesterday and one of our
3:29
clients, a snow removal customer in Kansas City, was like, what
3:34
good was that? So you say at the end of January
3:36
and early February there could be a major storm, but what about
3:40
between now and then? You said nothing.
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I said maybe you're not going to get anything between now and
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then. Explain you're not going to get
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nothing. You know you're not going to get
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anything. So, so it's not like we have all
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the answers. We don't know.
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We're not going to predict every single storm perfectly.
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And maybe we'll get 3 to 4 out of five of these answers
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correctly predicted, one or two out of the five.
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Maybe we don't. And when we don't, we've raised
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the bar so high. They think that, oh, we're wrong
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all the time when it's just one out of five, two out of five.
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And I don't like that. I Lauren, I don't like being
4:17
wrong. And sometimes people will
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criticize me for saying, girl, you don't admit when you're
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wrong. That is not true.
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It's just that we're right three or four out of five.
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And so when we are wrong, we'll say, hey, that storm did a
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little bit differently than we thought, but that that's
4:35
admitting we're wrong, you know. So anyway, I'm starting Babble.
4:40
There are, but this down sloping wind effect event is a
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widespread wind event. There's wind advisories or
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highwind warnings for the Sierra Nevada, for the Rockies, for the
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foothills here where I live, for parts of Montana and North
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Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming. This is a windstorm coming
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across, which is a symptom of what we've talked about with the
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LRC. The LRC was discovered in 1980,
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seven, 1988. And what it tells you is where
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these anchor troughs and anchor ridges are.
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OK, so an anchor through one of those is over the northeastern
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United States, maybe near the coast up there.
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And there's more frequent storms and they will be stronger in
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that region. And Anchorage is likely centered
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between Utah and Manhattan, KS, OK, probably centered near
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western Kansas or Colorado. I'm not exactly sure how far
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north or South that extends, but there's something there.
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And that's why the high winds are here.
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That's why the snowfall amounts in the Rocky Mountains of the
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ski areas continue to be a struggle.
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But this Anchorage is a likely cause of one of the reasons why
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this highwind event is happening without a storm.
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I mean, it's not going to rain or snow.
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And it might, it might snow a little bit tonight where I'm at,
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maybe a dusting. But this is Colorado, a dusting.
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And in the scariest one or two inches, 3 inches of snow.
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And so skier, they're concerned. Ski areas, they're concerned.
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I was at a French restaurant in Breckenridge when I went up
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there a few weeks ago before the season with rainbow and sunny.
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I thought it was going to snow it raining.
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You remember I went up there, I found the snow that is you're
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going to get that video because it has so much.
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I had to drive up to the snow wall.
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I'm in Breckenridge. I had to go up to the snow level
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at 10 thousand 511,000 feet and because it was raining at
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Breckenridge, but at this French restaurant, I told them, I said,
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listen, I'm concerned. They say, yeah, we're opening
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early this year. I said, yeah, this is not going
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to be a good year to open up early.
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They all yeah, it doesn't matter.
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They make snow, they'll be fine. I said, no, you don't
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understand. It's not going to be good.
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I was right. So there's the first forecast of
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the season. It's just a French restaurant.
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The scary is probably would love to hear my information, but they
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hire other people that hire flawed forecasters.
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There's a lot of flawed forecasters out there and people
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believe in them and then they're wrong.
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And so that's why you get this, this image of the forecast.
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Forecast can't be right because most forecasters do get it
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wrong. I saw in late November, early
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December, when this cold outbreak was showing up and it
7:31
got cold and they said it's going to be the worst winter
7:34
ever, the worst winter ever. So they get clicks.
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This guy's an influencer, and you probably know who he is, but
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he's got millions of views. It's the worst winter.
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It's going to turn cold and never warm up.
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Click, click, click, click, click, click, click.
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You're amazing. You're amazing.
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Until he's not. And then when it warms up.
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What happened? Oh, yeah.
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No one can predict the weather. That's bad for the image of
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forecasters that get it right. There's my statement.
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What does that say? What?
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Are your thoughts, what are your thoughts on?
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I know we kind of touched on really big concerns for fire
8:09
season and everything like that coming up as well with how dry
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we've been this winter. What are kind of your thoughts
8:16
there? Well, first of all, let's make
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something clear. You just said something that I
8:20
don't want to get on you, but it isn't winter yet to so you know,
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he said so far this winter. No, it has.
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Winter did not begin December 1st and meteoros will say winter
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begins December 1st. No, it doesn't.
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It begins December 21st, all right.
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It's called the winter solstice. I grew up and you grew up, and
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when winter began, then suddenly meteorologists just tell you
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when winter is going to start. The ones that get the forecast
8:43
wrong tell you winter started December 1st.
8:45
Let's put it that way. Winter begins this weekend, OK?
8:50
Perfect. So, so just I'm, I'm, I don't
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mean to scold you, but what was the question?
8:56
It's the answer your question again, you're pushing my button.
8:58
Forest fires, things like that, concerned with how dry we've
9:02
been. Well, you know, during the
9:04
winter it's going to be 6080 seventies, 80 mph winds today
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and it's going to be 70 in Denver today, 68 to 70°.
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So it's warm enough, it's dry enough if a fire gets sparked.
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And I, I'm looking outside right now here in Golden, I've got a
9:20
Mesa and it's dry as can be. I mean, there could be a fire up
9:24
there, I guess. And with the winds coming down,
9:27
it's not another question. I could be in a high Fire Zone.
9:29
I mean, there is a a Mesa right out here in South Table
9:33
Mountain. If you know, Golden Co is I'm
9:35
looking at right out my window, sunny and rainbow and I can go
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hike up there in 25 minutes, be at the top from here, from from
9:44
my place. I'm that close.
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But let me just tell you, I I have to watch it.
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I mean, there's a chance of fires probably not on this Mesa.
9:52
Someone would probably have to start it, but there are arsons
9:57
out there. I mean, believe it or not, most
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fires are started by man. Whether it's accidental or on
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purpose, it has started. 90% of fires are started by man It's
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amazing. Fires could be eliminated if you
10:09
just didn't start them. But some of them are barbecues
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and some of them are grills. When you're camping and things
10:15
do. Mistakes do happen, no doubt
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about it. But humans do 'cause most of
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these fires. So yeah, it's a concern.
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It's part of this pattern. It just won't rain or snow here.
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So it's it's dry in some spots and other spots like around
10:29
Manhattan, believe it or not, that precipitation since this
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pattern began in in Kansas has been near average.
10:35
It's been near average. There's been strange storms that
10:38
have snuck in and produced precipitation.
10:41
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10:44
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Cattle. As we go into the end of this
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year into January, what are kind of your thoughts as this pattern
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has kind of like fully formed? And just as we go into the rest
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of winter and specifically into January, what are kind of your
11:47
thoughts of what we're going to be seeing then?
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There's a phase one and a phase two of this year's pattern that
11:52
we identified. Like last year, we were
11:54
consistent with last year and they literally performed all the
11:57
way through the July. Phase one is the systems that
12:00
come across Montana that produce snow from Montana and North
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Dakota to South Dakota, across Iowa, and then head east across
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Indiana, Illinois and up into the Ohio Valley.
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That storm track could shift South or north in the next cycle
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cycling. So we're going to go into the
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next cycle on from January 1st to about January 24th.
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That part of the pattern is going to return, so we're going
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to watch for that. There's a phase two, the pattern
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that produces storm systems that come into the western part of
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the country, and that's happening in the next 10 days.
12:28
In the next 10 days, California's forecast to have 10
12:31
to 20 inches of rain with snow, maybe 8 feet of snow in the
12:36
western slopes. Above 7000 feet, the snow levels
12:39
are going to be fairly high. The ski areas are 7000 feet and
12:43
up, so it may be raining on the bottom of the ski areas.
12:46
Hopefully it's snow levels lower enough to blast them, because
12:48
that'd be good for California ski areas.
12:51
But that's the phase two-part of the pattern.
12:53
That phase may get out of control if what we call the
12:56
Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation get to
13:00
deeper negative. Right now they haven't done
13:02
that. I'll tell you about that in a
13:03
second. Then we get a major storm at the
13:06
end of January, early February, as we've been discussing, a
13:09
possible major ice storm and snowstorm for the plains that
13:12
could be good for the moisture content.
13:14
So we'll watch that closely. And in January through first
13:19
half of February is when that is due to return.
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But there are three things. One, the LRC, which is the
13:25
centerpiece of the big atmospheric jigsaw.
13:27
If you've been following our reports, you'll learn about this
13:31
atmospheric jigsaw. The LRC is a centerpiece.
13:33
The olds, other forecasters I blasted earlier, they don't use
13:37
the centerpiece. So they're making your forecast
13:39
without knowing what's going to happen.
13:41
They just blindly say crap, OK, And it drives me crazy
13:47
sometimes, but they don't use that centerpiece and that's why
13:51
they don't know what it is. What is it?
13:53
Pattern cycling regularly and predictably.
13:57
And then there's these fringe pieces, the Arctic Oscillation,
14:00
the North Atlantic Oscillation, Enzo, which is the El Nino,
14:03
Southern Oscillation index. La Nina or El Nino as of this
14:07
week -.7 that's an important #0 is neutral in the tropical
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Pacific Ocean when it's -.5 or lower is considered La Nina.
14:20
Conditions are developing. A full La Nina is when 5 three
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month averages. So roughly 5 or 6 months in a
14:31
row have have -.5 or lower. That's not happening.
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But right now it is -.7. So that's negative towards
14:39
precipitation for Kansas, Nebraska.
14:42
It pushes it off towards Illinois, Indiana, and east.
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That index is forecast to go down to 0 to warm up to 0 by mid
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January. So let's see if that happens.
14:54
So that's going to be one thing that changes.
14:57
The Arctic Oscillation has been mostly positive.
15:00
Right now. It's positive.
15:01
It's influencing this pattern. That's why it's warming up and
15:04
the jet stream is retreating. The Arctic Guerra has left the
15:07
building. That's not forecast to go to
15:10
negative yet, but it may, I'm expecting it to happen towards
15:14
the middle around of January once or twice this season.
15:18
If that happens and coincides with this phase two that's
15:21
you're going to end up with that big storm.
15:23
So the LRC is not good for storm systems across the plates.
15:29
La Nina is not good. The AO positive is not good.
15:34
That's three not good and that's why it's drying out right now
15:37
and we're going to start be concerned about drought.
15:40
Two of those 3 are going to change El Nino.
15:43
I mean El Nino may be growing by next winter, but Enzo will be
15:47
going neutral and the AO and NAO may dip negative.
15:51
So those are going to change, but the pattern will not change
15:54
the cyclone pattern between, but those influences could change
15:58
things, allowing us to have storm systems that are wetter in
16:02
Kansas, Nebraska and the plates. So that's something to monitor
16:05
in the next month. Very good information to know as
16:09
we go into January and as we kind of start to really get into
16:14
the depths of winter of what we can anticipate.
16:17
Because right now I am enjoying my 5060° sunny days here in
16:22
Kansas while I can keep on reminding myself that this is
16:25
not going to be forever unfortunately.
16:28
And that I need to soak up the outdoor ability while I still
16:33
can and not be too much of A Pansy when it comes to going on
16:37
outdoor runs or going on walks or things like that.
16:40
Because. You could manage that.
16:42
Take advantage of it while I can because Lauren knows that it is
16:47
probably going to cool down and we are going to see what
16:51
continues to happen over the next few months.
16:54
Gary, is there anything else that we didn't hit on today that
16:57
we need to cover before we wrap it up?
16:59
I'm sure there's a lot, but we're not going to talk about
17:01
anything else now. Just know this, windstorms
17:04
coming across, there's going to be very wet conditions near the
17:08
California coast. I'm going to be able to show
17:10
case the LRC, if you watch our report, because this storm is
17:14
going to come in Christmas week, right on Christmas Eve.
17:17
It's right on schedule. It's going to look like the one
17:19
that hit October 14th and the one that hit the November 17th.
17:22
It does look like it's a very long cycle.
17:25
I saw I was going to do top secret information.
17:27
So here it is. Looks like it could be a 70 to
17:31
75 day cycle, somewhere in that range.
17:34
It's been 74 days the last few days.
17:36
So we're now at the point where I think that's what it is, but
17:39
we'll verify that it could be 10 weeks long or longer on the
17:43
cycle length. Last year was six weeks.
17:46
So that's your top secret information as you've been
17:49
following at the LRC? Very exciting information and
17:52
perfect way to round out the podcast, Gary, to all of our
17:55
listeners, if anything that we talked about today interests you
17:58
and you want to learn more, make sure you check out the show
18:01
notes down below. I've got all of our exclusive
18:03
links with Cattle USA and with our Weather 2020 partnership
18:07
down there. I've got all of Gary's links,
18:10
his sub stack, his TikTok, his Instagram, his everything that
18:13
you could possibly need down there.
18:14
So make sure you go check all of those out.
18:16
Thank you for listening to another episode of the Cattle
18:19
USA Daily Podcast and we will see you all next time.
18:22
Have a great week y'all.