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How does polling work and will it be right this time? · Inside Politics

0:00
S1: From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
0:03
S1: This is inside politics. I'm Jacqueline Maley. It's Friday, April 25th.
0:09
S1: This week we're doing a special podcast about our complicated
0:13
S1: relationship with political poles. As journalists, we like them because maybe,
0:17
S1: just maybe, they can tell us something about what voters
0:20
S1: are really thinking. But we are a bit wary of them, too,
0:24
S1: especially after the federal election in 2019 where the polls
0:27
S1: were wrong. That caused a massive rethink in how polling
0:31
S1: is done and how we in the media rely on it.
0:34
S1: So let's get into it. How are polls actually conducted?
0:37
S1: How are participants recruited? How are the questions formulated? And
0:41
S1: are they right this time around? Today, as always, we
0:46
S1: are joined by our chief political correspondent David Crowe. And
0:50
S1: today our special guest is Jim Read, who conducts the
0:53
S1: Resolve Political Monitor poll for our papers. Welcome, both.
0:57
S2: Thanks. Great to be back on.
0:58
S3: And it's great to be here. And it's also really
1:00
S3: good to be face to face in in the studio,
1:02
S3: isn't it?
1:02
S1: I know it's so old school, I love it. And
1:04
S1: we're being filmed, so everybody's on their best behaviour. Jim,
1:08
S1: I want to start with you. First. We're going to
1:10
S1: do a deep dive into polling and how it works,
1:13
S1: what it's looking like for this election. But can you
1:15
S1: just talk to us a little bit about how the
1:16
S1: sausage is made? What exactly is a poll? How do
1:19
S1: you find the people and how do you make sure
1:21
S1: that the sample is representative?
1:23
S2: Sure, there's the the how the poll is done, but
1:26
S2: also the why. I guess the why we do polling
1:28
S2: is which dictates the how is that we really want
1:31
S2: to inform readers and listeners about what's going on and
1:36
S2: hopefully inform the commentary. So it's not just one person's opinion,
1:39
S2: you know, there's a sort of safety in numbers, if
1:41
S2: you like, by by assessing public opinion. So it's important
1:44
S2: that we get it right. And the way you do
1:46
S2: that in research is by asking the right questions of
1:48
S2: the right people in the right way. And that's the
1:50
S2: same with any market research, regardless of whether it's political polling,
1:53
S2: you know, so the the first thing we do is
1:55
S2: make sure we're asking the right people. And increasingly we're
1:59
S2: doing that with online research panels rather than calling people up.
2:03
S2: And that gives us a pretty cost effective way of
2:06
S2: getting to a representative bunch of people nationally. And we
2:10
S2: set minimum quotas by state, by area, by age, by gender.
2:15
S2: So we make sure we've got a good bunch of
2:17
S2: people and we can, you know, fiddle about with the
2:20
S2: back end a little bit with what we call weighting factors.
2:22
S2: So if we're slightly down on females, for example, we
2:25
S2: may upweight them a little bit in our sample. So
2:27
S2: it's representative. And then we asked them the right questions
2:30
S2: in the right way. So you know very obviously that's vote.
2:33
S2: But also we go a bit deeper into some of
2:35
S2: those diagnostic measures. Like what issues are important. How committed
2:39
S2: are you in your vote. How likely are you to change.
2:42
S2: What do you think of the leaders? What do you
2:43
S2: think of this policy, that policy, etc.? And I think
2:46
S2: that's one of the great strengths of our approach is
2:48
S2: we we go deeper and talk about policy and issues
2:51
S2: and events, and we've got very particular ways, for example,
2:53
S2: of asking vote. Um, after the 2019 polling episode, we
2:59
S2: came in and we thought, you know, how do we
3:01
S2: change this? And one of the major things, I guess,
3:04
S2: that we did is to take out an undecided option.
3:06
S2: So most polls give an undecided option. We took that
3:09
S2: out right. Simply because it doesn't appear on the ballot paper.
3:12
S2: So we thought let's you know, let's emulate the real
3:14
S2: decision as it is in the in the election box.
3:18
S1: That certainly makes sense. David, how do you use polls?
3:21
S1: I mean, you report the polls that we publish the
3:23
S1: Resolve Political Monitor polls, but how do you use them
3:26
S1: more broadly in your work.
3:27
S3: Really as a way to find out the mood of
3:29
S3: the electorate across a whole range of fronts. And so
3:32
S3: we ask the personal questions because we're interested in how
3:35
S3: people view the performance of the Prime minister and the
3:38
S3: opposition leader. Sometimes we've asked questions about the likeability of
3:41
S3: different leaders. We're always conscious of asking a question as
3:46
S3: pointed as possible about an issue that's running in the community,
3:51
S3: whether it's Donald Trump or whether it's health policy or
3:55
S3: education policy and so forth. So we're looking for ways
3:59
S3: to really explain to our readers what the mood of
4:03
S3: the electorate is, because each of us can can be
4:06
S3: in our own bubble in politics in a way, because
4:09
S3: sometimes there's a self-reinforcing thing that happens in communities where
4:13
S3: you you're more inclined to read the stories that reinforce
4:16
S3: your own opinion. So sometimes we well, we we can
4:20
S3: use the poll to reflect a better sense of what
4:23
S3: the wider community feels. And sometimes this leads to polling
4:27
S3: stories that people disagree with. You know, if if Peter
4:31
S3: Dutton is making inroads into Labour support by by seizing
4:36
S3: on complaints about the cost of living. Our polling reflects that.
4:39
S3: And that's an important sort of statement about where the
4:42
S3: community is at. And it counters some of the spin
4:45
S3: that might be coming out of Canberra. Actually, it's it
4:48
S3: serves quite a useful function in that way.
4:50
S1: Yeah. It's a corrective to political spin. Jim, how do
4:53
S1: you find the people that you poll and do you
4:55
S1: pay them?
4:56
S2: We do. Usually when they're collected by online polls, they're
5:00
S2: usually offered an incentive for their time. We sometimes also
5:04
S2: mix a bit of telephone polling in with that, simply
5:07
S2: because we find that if you want to, you know,
5:11
S2: be as inclusive as possible. There are certain people, you know,
5:14
S2: for example, the, you know, people aged over 80, um,
5:18
S2: you know, younger people with better things to do or
5:20
S2: more affluent groups who simply don't go on online panels,
5:23
S2: or at least not in the numbers that you'd like.
5:26
S2: So targeting them with mobile phone calls and other things,
5:29
S2: you know, helps to to balance that. But certainly with
5:31
S2: online panels, it's pretty normal that you provide an incentive for,
5:35
S2: for their time. Um, the great thing about online panels
5:38
S2: is they're very easy to reach, but they're online panels
5:41
S2: and online panels. So the most important thing is that
5:44
S2: they're recruited properly, because if they're just a sort of
5:47
S2: opt in consumer panel, I think you tend to get
5:51
S2: skews and biases in there. And I think that was
5:53
S2: part of the 2019 problem with the polls that were
5:57
S2: around then. The best polls are the ones where you
5:59
S2: recruit them randomly off the back of telephone surveys and
6:02
S2: other things like that, and you get a random sample
6:04
S2: of people.
6:05
S1: And you make sure that they're sort of serious people
6:07
S1: who are going to take the exercise seriously. I mean,
6:09
S1: how do you do that? And just, you know, you
6:10
S1: don't have some young kid, you know, yeah, a donkey
6:13
S1: vote or.
6:13
S2: You know, it's one of the things that, as a
6:15
S2: pollster sort of keeps you awake at night. I guess so. We,
6:19
S2: you know, the best polls and I'm sure there are
6:22
S2: lots of polls, not just mine do this, but you
6:24
S2: have very rigorous quality control and security checks. So you
6:28
S2: make sure things aren't bots or AI by doing little,
6:31
S2: you know, those little checks that we're all used to
6:33
S2: and you do internal consistency checks. So you might ask
6:35
S2: the same question twice, right? You know, throughout the survey.
6:38
S2: And if they answer differently between those two times you
6:40
S2: start to get a bit suspicious.
6:42
S3: Yeah, right. The voice referendum was an interesting example of,
6:45
S3: I think, the use of polling and the rigorous way
6:48
S3: in which it was done. Jim's work showed by the
6:51
S3: middle of 2023 that the majority were against the indigenous voice.
6:57
S3: And this was a very uncomfortable finding for people in
7:00
S3: the indigenous community and in labor. About. And I often
7:04
S3: think back to that moment and think because the polling
7:07
S3: became very consistent all the way through to the actual referendum.
7:12
S3: And I think back on that and wonder why people
7:15
S3: didn't act on the signal would have been a hard
7:17
S3: thing for people to do to say, okay, this is
7:20
S3: clearly headed for defeat. So we're going to have to
7:22
S3: come up with a different proposal to take to the referendum.
7:25
S3: For instance, take out. Putting the voice into the Constitution
7:29
S3: and maybe just focusing on recognition instead. But I often
7:33
S3: think back to the polling at that time and wonder
7:35
S3: about whether a different pathway could have been found, given
7:38
S3: what the poll was showing.
7:41
S1: I mean, that was one example where the polling was
7:42
S1: spot on. Previously, we've had examples where the polling has
7:45
S1: been very misleading. So I'm talking about 2019 election, which
7:49
S1: obviously showed that Labour under Bill shorten was going to
7:51
S1: win government, and they most certainly did not to the
7:54
S1: extent where Scott Morrison called it, you know, a miracle.
7:59
S4: I have always believed in miracles.
8:02
S1: So what happened? Why didn't the polling pick up the miracle?
8:06
S2: Well, I think there's really no excuse for it, because
8:08
S2: we had polls that were published on the Friday and
8:11
S2: even the Saturday. You know, we were saying the opposite result.
8:13
S2: The results were a few percent out. You know, it
8:15
S2: just it became very important because they called the the
8:18
S2: result the outcome incorrectly, I think. But it's not unusual for,
8:23
S2: for for polls to be a few percent. The most
8:24
S2: important thing is that it's within your margin of error,
8:28
S2: which is usually a couple of percent. And therefore we
8:30
S2: usually get it right. I think the polling industry did
8:33
S2: a lot of navel gazing and a lot of soul
8:35
S2: searching after that resolve was brought in, partly because of that,
8:38
S2: you know, after that 2019 result and we've, you know,
8:42
S2: had a pretty good record since then. We've done, I think,
8:44
S2: four elections in a referendum for the age and the SM. So,
8:48
S2: you know, which is proven to be accurate within our
8:50
S2: margins of error. To be fair to other pollsters, we
8:53
S2: didn't have those legacy issues of, you know, using a
8:55
S2: certain panel, using a certain question format and having those trends.
8:58
S2: So we we were able to start afresh. But I
9:02
S2: think the other thing we made a conscious effort to
9:04
S2: do was to look afresh at the vote question. And
9:09
S2: one of the things, because the polls were saying a
9:12
S2: certain thing right up until Election day, one of the
9:15
S2: uncertainties was where the 5 or 10% undecided actually went
9:20
S2: on the day. So they usually excluded from polls in
9:23
S2: their in their voting result. And so we've decided to
9:25
S2: get rid of that. And we forced people, much like
9:29
S2: when they go into the voting booth and they're forced
9:31
S2: to tick an option or, you know, scribble a message
9:35
S2: on the vote paper and spoil it, or just do
9:37
S2: a donkey vote, we allow them to do that same
9:39
S2: thing in our in our vote choice. And regardless of,
9:44
S2: you know, us usually doing a poll about a week
9:46
S2: out from from Election day, it's still proven to be
9:49
S2: pretty accurate. I think really because of that.
9:52
S1: Um, well, I mean, we're going to we're going to
9:54
S1: find out in nine days, aren't we? Um, Jim, in
9:57
S1: the interest of transparency, can you tell us more about
9:59
S1: the relationship between your company resolve strategic polling and whoever
10:03
S1: commissions the polling, Like our newspaper, newspapers. I mean, what
10:07
S1: are the expectations of you from The Age and the
10:09
S1: Sydney Morning Herald? And how do you make sure that
10:12
S1: the sort of final set of questions doesn't accidentally or
10:15
S1: inadvertently reflect somebody's bias along the way?
10:17
S2: Well, again, I think there's safety in numbers. We're interviewing
10:20
S2: usually 1600 people. Sometimes it's more than that. Our last
10:23
S2: poll will be 2000 people. So as long as you
10:27
S2: pick that sample and analyse that sample carefully, I don't
10:31
S2: think it shouldn't be biased. I think also there's a
10:36
S2: how should I put it, an expectation of fidelity. So yes,
10:39
S2: we want interesting results. But they've also got to be
10:42
S2: balanced and fair and true. And I think one of
10:45
S2: the problems that that polling has in terms of, you know,
10:49
S2: fidelity and balance, or at least the perception of it,
10:52
S2: is that, you know, you might be any polling company
10:55
S2: is usually working for other entities as well, you know,
10:58
S2: industry bodies, companies, etc.. And there's nothing wrong with that.
11:03
S2: There's nothing illegal in that, but I think transparency is
11:07
S2: a big thing as well. So if you're a pollster
11:09
S2: and you have an interest in working for a company
11:12
S2: or an industry, as long as you declare that it
11:15
S2: allows people to, you know, decide what they make of
11:18
S2: the poll.
11:19
S3: Jim's being very polite about the way it's all done,
11:22
S3: I think. Let's, um, we're very happy with using resolve.
11:27
S3: We did learn from the experience of 2019. Back then,
11:30
S3: the consensus, and there was a report done about this
11:32
S3: by some independent agency. After the 2019 election. The consensus
11:36
S3: across the polls seemed to be labor ahead, 5149. The
11:41
S3: actual result was the mirror image of that. For a
11:44
S3: lot of the polls, the difference was within the margin
11:47
S3: of error. But a lot of the focus on the
11:49
S3: two party preferred number boiling poles down to two numbers
11:53
S3: only created this impression of a Labour certainty, misleading impression.
11:58
S3: And one of the lessons for us out of that
12:00
S3: was let's not emphasize only those two numbers. So we've
12:05
S3: broadened the polling and we've tried to emphasize things like
12:08
S3: the primary vote for for the major parties, which is
12:11
S3: so important, especially in this fragmented electorate where about a
12:15
S3: third of the voters are not choosing Labour or Liberal,
12:18
S3: they're choosing all these other options. And so Labour and
12:20
S3: Liberal rely on the preferences. So this was really important.
12:23
S3: Jim is not working for any of the political parties.
12:26
S3: That's important to us as well. If there's any change
12:28
S3: to that, we would declare it so that everybody knows
12:31
S3: where they stand. And people have to bear in mind
12:35
S3: the margin of error for us, for Jim is 2.4%.
12:39
S3: So if it's 51, 49, remember the margin of error.
12:42
S3: It's real. But we're very happy with the polling because
12:46
S3: every month Jim is polling 1600 people. A lot of
12:49
S3: others are doing 1100 people or 1200 people, and their
12:52
S3: margin of error is greater because of that. You know,
12:54
S3: these are just the technical things where we've got to
12:57
S3: be as good as we can, but we acknowledge that
13:01
S3: it is not as precise as perfectionists might like, and
13:05
S3: it's not a predictor. It's a poll of a particular
13:08
S3: view across the electorate at a point in time, like
13:11
S3: last weekend, not May 3rd.
13:13
S1: Yeah. How do we make sure that the polls serve
13:16
S1: a democratic purpose or a journalistic purpose? And they're not
13:18
S1: just a horse race, you know, almost for their entertainment value.
13:22
S3: It's really hard because I get feedback from people saying,
13:25
S3: why aren't you writing about more about policy? But when
13:28
S3: I write about polls, there's huge engagement. And just to
13:32
S3: be really frank about this, when I write about polls,
13:35
S3: I get more feedback from politicians than I do when
13:38
S3: I write about policy.
13:38
S1: The same politicians who say that they never look at
13:40
S1: the polls, they don't read the polls. The only poll
13:42
S1: that counts is the one on Election day.
13:44
S3: Breaking news.
13:45
S1: Yep.
13:45
S3: I mean, this is the thing. They're deeply engaged in
13:48
S3: this stuff because they're professional politicians and they've they've worked
13:51
S3: with numbers all their professional lives. And it's all about
13:54
S3: the numbers. So they're deeply invested. When we say something
13:59
S3: one side doesn't like, they let us know. They think
14:01
S3: the poll's wrong. But over time, you know, we're creating
14:04
S3: a or providing a consistent picture of where people are at.
14:09
S3: And the most important thing is the trend. We found
14:12
S3: the trend against the government when the cost of living
14:14
S3: was biting. And certainly this year we've found a trend
14:18
S3: toward the government as Election Day gets closer. This is
14:23
S3: this is the trend to watch.
14:24
S2: Yeah, yeah. And we've I think, you know, just to
14:26
S2: pick up on your point there about the two party
14:29
S2: preferred vote, we have tried to avoid that that horse race.
14:33
S2: And we have a particular way, I think, of looking
14:34
S2: at vote where we concentrate on primary vote, because there
14:38
S2: are a lot of minor party and independent candidates that,
14:42
S2: you know, make up around a third of the primary vote. Now,
14:45
S2: so the way we think about vote is that it's
14:47
S2: a measure, and it's a measure that doesn't move around
14:50
S2: a lot. So we we like to concentrate on policy and,
14:53
S2: and other things. But we do report it and we
14:55
S2: have to report it. Unless there's a leadership change it
14:58
S2: doesn't move around too much. But it is a very
15:00
S2: handy measure over time of the health of the parties,
15:02
S2: including the Greens and Independents and One Nation and other things.
15:07
S2: Two party preferred the binary measure kind of masks that.
15:10
S2: So we've we've treated though as an opinion measure for
15:15
S2: the vast majority of the term. When we get closer
15:17
S2: to the election, we start to talk more about two
15:21
S2: party preferred to to say, you know, this is where
15:23
S2: the the position is because otherwise you, you have people
15:27
S2: working out what seats would change hands from a two
15:31
S2: party preferred result, you know, two years out from an election.
15:34
S1: Yeah. Too far, which is. Yeah.
15:35
S2: Which is, which is silly.
15:37
S1: Yeah.
15:38
S3: There's a there's a great jazz standard. It don't mean
15:42
S3: a thing. It ain't got that swing. And I always
15:44
S3: think of that tune when I write in my stories.
15:46
S3: There's no such thing as a uniform swing. Um, I
15:49
S3: kind of hum it to myself because you cannot apply
15:52
S3: the national 52, 48 or 51, 49 to the seat
15:57
S3: of Chisholm in Melbourne, or the seat of Bennelong in Sydney.
16:00
S3: It does not work that way.
16:01
S1: I know, and I think sometimes when we're reporting federal politics,
16:04
S1: particularly from Canberra, we we forget about the local politics
16:08
S1: is everything. And, you know, seat to seat is is
16:11
S1: the only game in town. I just want to ask
16:13
S1: you both about how polling can affect the democratic process
16:16
S1: itself or can affect opinion. So, you know, it's supposed
16:20
S1: to be an objective measure. But sometimes, um, polls, if
16:23
S1: they go a certain way, will actually affect the way
16:25
S1: that people vote. And sometimes the parties will take pride
16:29
S1: in their underdog status or claim their underdog status in
16:32
S1: order to get ahead. I mean, what do we sort
16:35
S1: of do with that? Is that is that a risk?
16:37
S3: Um, isn't there a scientific principle where the where the
16:40
S3: process of the experiment can affect the outcome?
16:42
S1: Yeah, that's what I'm talking about. Exactly.
16:43
S2: The quantum observer.
16:44
S3: Yeah. But okay, so I was talking to somebody in
16:47
S3: the union movement recently who made the point that labor
16:50
S3: is doing better, not just based on what we're finding
16:54
S3: with resolve, but also based on the union movement's own polling. Yeah.
16:58
S3: Does that then lead some people to think, oh, Labor's
17:01
S3: going to be in, I'll vote green. Yeah. Yes. That's
17:05
S3: a factor for some people. So there is there is
17:08
S3: an impact. But the alternative is to not ask, what
17:11
S3: is that? Don't ask, don't tell. You know, like, let's
17:13
S3: not ask people because it may influence people's judgment. Well,
17:17
S3: influencing people's view of politics is kind of what journalism
17:21
S3: is often about.
17:22
S1: We can't help it sometimes.
17:23
S3: Just reporting.
17:24
S1: What happens. Yeah, it is an interesting one, I think.
17:28
S1: What do you think on that point, Jim? That sort
17:30
S1: of idea of a feedback loop, because it must also
17:32
S1: affect the parties psychologically, even though they don't want to
17:35
S1: claim the win, if they know that the polls are
17:37
S1: going their way and their internal polling is going their way,
17:39
S1: they get a pep in their step. And you can
17:41
S1: see that happening in the Labour campaign.
17:43
S2: Yeah, certainly. Um, Anthony Albanese has, um, you know, seemed
17:47
S2: a lot more confident. I think, you know, partly that's,
17:51
S2: you know, his position in the polls, I guess, but
17:54
S2: but also just running a, you know, a very decent campaign,
17:57
S2: a disciplined campaign. So they're on the ascendancy, if you like.
18:01
S2: But I think, you know, just reiterating really what David said,
18:05
S2: an informed electorate Is an electorate that's ready to vote,
18:09
S2: and we're just part of the informing process. Reading through
18:12
S2: some of the reader comments of of David's stories is,
18:16
S2: you know, which I occasionally do the most wonderful comments
18:19
S2: or I didn't know people thought this way, oh, I'll
18:22
S2: have to go and research this, etc.. So, you know,
18:25
S2: informing people about what's going on is important and, you know,
18:28
S2: you can't get around that. There's there's feedback loops everywhere.
18:31
S2: So you speak to your family, your friends about what's
18:33
S2: going on in the election. That's exactly the same thing
18:36
S2: as a poll. So I have no issue with that.
18:39
S2: The issue is, if polling were to get it wrong,
18:44
S2: there's only one thing worse than having no polling as
18:47
S2: a political party. And that's having the wrong polling. That is,
18:50
S2: it's getting it wrong. For some reason you're getting a
18:53
S2: wrong steer rather than no steer. So I think as
18:54
S2: long as we maintain our accuracy and our fairness and
18:58
S2: our balance in the way we present things, then it's
19:01
S2: it adds to the democratic process, not detracts.
19:04
S3: We're not going to put a poll on our front
19:05
S3: page on Election Day. You know, I don't see it
19:09
S3: as my role to try and predict the outcome on
19:13
S3: the day of the election. I'll comment on the outcome
19:15
S3: on election night. But in the final days of the
19:18
S3: election campaign, I want to report to readers what the
19:22
S3: leaders are saying on either side, what the policies are
19:26
S3: saying on either side. If there are any developments that
19:28
S3: are newsworthy in the actual campaign, rather than do polling
19:34
S3: on the Friday or Saturday, that says we expect the
19:37
S3: result to be this way or that way. Yeah. Because
19:40
S3: I think at that point, voters, you know, might want
19:43
S3: us to tell them where things are at in the
19:46
S3: competing propositions and they'll make up their own mind.
19:49
S1: We do, however, have a new poll coming out next week,
19:51
S1: don't we? Which is going to be the last one
19:53
S1: before the final day. I just want to ask you
19:55
S1: both very quickly what the polls are showing now, like
19:57
S1: what our last poll has showed.
19:59
S2: It's essentially very close to where we we were in
20:03
S2: 2022 after lots of ups and downs. You know, Albanese
20:06
S2: started with a very, you know, strong honeymoon, which lasted
20:09
S2: for about a year. Then the long term trend was
20:13
S2: Labour went down, down, down, down, down. Those rate rises
20:16
S2: started to bite. The cost of living was biting more generally,
20:20
S2: and the feedback we had in focus groups and respondent
20:23
S2: comments was that Labour looked, you know, distracted by the
20:27
S2: voice and other things and not acting on cost of living.
20:31
S2: So they really suffered from that. They lost a great
20:34
S2: deal of their vote. And for, you know, the start
20:36
S2: of this year, it looked like the coalition were in
20:38
S2: with a chance of actually, you know, forcing Labour to
20:41
S2: be a first term government. But we've had this huge
20:43
S2: bounce back. Labour have gone from a two party preferred
20:47
S2: deficit to I think in our last poll it was 53.5%
20:50
S2: lead over the coalition, a very slight swing to them,
20:54
S2: which would seem to indicate, you know, a majority Labour
20:57
S2: government at that snapshot. But, you know, within our margin
21:00
S2: of error, as David said, we should always look at
21:03
S2: the margin of error. There's also the chance of a
21:04
S2: minority Labour government in there. So the polls are basically
21:08
S2: we're essentially middle of the pack at the moment, and
21:11
S2: the polls are basically telling us that that's the state
21:14
S2: of play, majority or minority Labour government at the moment.
21:17
S2: But as we've seen in in recent times, a week
21:19
S2: is a very long time in politics. So let's see,
21:22
S2: we go where we go over the next week and
21:23
S2: a half.
21:24
S3: I talked to a Labour MP the other day who said,
21:25
S3: I'm worried that we're getting complacent and the polls are
21:29
S3: telling us we're ahead. And you know, we shouldn't take
21:31
S3: that for granted because he was seeing people going into
21:34
S3: the early voting booths still grumpy about the cost of living.
21:38
S3: And I think that's worth mentioning. We don't just ask
21:40
S3: about leaders and, you know, primary vote when we ask
21:43
S3: who's better to keep the cost of living low? Labour
21:46
S3: were way behind on that 2 or 3 months ago. Now, 30%
21:52
S3: say Labour and Albanese are best to keep the cost
21:54
S3: of living low and 30%, say Coalition and Peter Dutton.
21:58
S3: So it's now neck and neck on that key question.
22:01
S3: But MPs are still on the government side, are getting
22:03
S3: this blowback on the cost of living still. So I
22:05
S3: think we've got to emphasise it's still close.
22:09
S1: It's still anybody's game. Yeah. We will have to check
22:11
S1: the price of the sausages on the sausage sizzles on
22:15
S1: the day and see what's happening with inflation of the
22:19
S1: democracy sausage. Guys, thanks so much for joining us. That
22:22
S1: was really interesting. Thank you for coming in, Jim.
22:24
S2: Thanks for having.
22:25
S1: Me. And good to see you in person. David.
22:26
S3: Wasn't it good? Thank you. Cheers.
22:31
S1: Today's episode was produced by Julia Katzel with technical assistance
22:35
S1: from Josh Towers and Taylor Dent. Our executive producer is
22:38
S1: Tami Mills, and Tom McKendrick is our head of audio.
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23:04
S1: thank you for listening.