Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Super Tuesdays - 2028 Presidential Preview: AOC Rising, Newsom Overrated, Harris Out

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Super Tuesdays - 2028 Presidential Preview: AOC Rising, Newsom Overrated, Harris Out · The Chuck ToddCast

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: We are now under eighty days away from the twenty
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: twenty six mith terms, and I'm excited about twenty twenty eight.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Welcome to Super Tuesday. That's Chuck Doun. I'm Chris Lizza.
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: We go around the campaign trail in eighty days.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Is that what you're telling? That's my point.
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: Do I do a little, Yeah, if I do a
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: little figuratively figuratively, I got the Jules Verne reference.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: I like that before we do anything else like subscribe, follow,
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: We're on iHeart Apple Podcasts, Spotify YouTube, Super Tuesdays. So, Chuck,
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: I want to start here because we kind of towards
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: the end of last week, I think you had got
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: to throwaway line, but I and I sort of agreed
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: with you, and I heard all from all these people.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: We were dismissive of Gavin Newsome a little bit, and
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I thought, you know what, we have it twenty twenty
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: eight Gavin Newsom, and I said, you know what we
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: haven't done. We've done it piecemeal here and there, but
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: what we haven't really done is kind of like, where
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: where are we now? Twenty twenty eight edition, And let's
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: do Democrats, maybe do Republicans next week Republicans candidly is
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: it's not as far along they're in as many candidates,
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: it's not as fun.
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: Just no, But I do can't be I am and
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: I did you know those of you who are listening
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: to this after you've heard my Monday podcast has to say.
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: But I think jd Vance is going to divide the
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: right in ways that we haven't fully appreciated yet. I
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: think that's going to be interesting. I don't think that's
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: going to be the the clean fight for that nomination
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: that people think it is.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: So you think is that he's it's going to be
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: harder for him to be the nominal that people are saying.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Let's well, first of all, go listen to the Chuck
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: podcast on because let's put it.
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: There's no doubt there's but I watching. I mean, he's
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: not Trump, and that's the problem. He doesn't have charisma
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: of Trump. No Trump could paper over the problems of
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: the party by sheer force of personality.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: And he was a celebrity in a way that almost
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: no one else. That's just not who he doesn't that's
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: not who he is. He doesn't have that. I think
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: he's a pretty good sort of performer, but he's not Trump.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: I mean again, Trump is Trump like he's so Sue generous.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: So go listen to Chuck's podcast on that. We will
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: come back next week to that. So, Chuck, I just
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: wanted just a level set And look, Chuck and I.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Before I pull these up, I will say this, Chuck
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: and I are we both look at prediction markets regularly.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: We don't think they are the be all, end all,
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: nor do we think they are the worst thing in
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: the world.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: It's a piece of data. It's a to me and
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: the same way that I'm curious how independent, college educated
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: men are voting same. That's just another data another data point.
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: That's let me pull up.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Let me let me share this screen because I've got two.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: So I've got I've got both Calshi and polymarket. So
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: let's just do polymarket first. They both broadly show the
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: kind of movement. So this is polymarket AOC twenty percent,
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: new some sixteen as Off fifteen and then nobody else
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: with more than single digits. Seven is Kamala Harris, five
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: is Wes more. Just there's that, and let me let
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: me quickly show you Calshi.
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: Prediction markets I think are a huge asset to Gavin Newsom,
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: but we'll discuss after.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, let's that's what I want to talk about.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: All right, hold on, let me let me just pull
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: up Calci, which, by the way, shows it's very similar,
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: but just so people can see it, here's Calshi. Let
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: me close this. Okay, So Calshi basically seventeen, AOC seventeen,
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: new some fourteen ass off and then no one else
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: in double digits. Same kind of setup. Okay, So I
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: want to I want to do a couple of things check.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: But let's talk about that first. And I want to
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: talk about some longer shots that I think are kind
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: of intriguing, but let's talk about that first. So, if
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: you believe kind of the the betting markets right now,
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: your top tier is Alexandre, your custody, Cortes, Gavin Newsome,
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: and John also in some order. I'm not going to say, like, oh,
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: because AOC has twenty one in polymarket, Newsom as nineteen,
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: but in some order that's the top three. Agree or disagree?
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: I mean it, I don't really agree, but I understand
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: why the names are there right now. Yes, Like, it
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: doesn't surprise me that those are the top three names.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Look I will.
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: I'll say something that I kick. Actually I happened to
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: I did. J Mart and I had did our sort
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: of quarterly get together.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: I love him. That was my that's my Monday guest.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: And we do we do.
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: It's funny you bring that we're doing in twenty eight
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: shows you we don't plan well enough. I did a
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: whole twenty eighth. J Mart and I started this way.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: Here's my.
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: Let me let me paint the setup for you, Okay.
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: I is it possible that AOC sucks up so much
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: oxygen that a Lah Trump sixteen frankly Allah Hillary and
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: Obama in eight where it just makes it impossible for
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: anybody else to break through other than one other.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: And it's sort of because like an alternative to her
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: versus the competition to be the alternative, And there'll be
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: these different moments here, and I say that is Look,
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: AOC has the ability that both Obama.
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: Clinton and Trump showed at times in eight. Let's and
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: even a little bit with Clinton and sixteen, and certainly
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: with Trump and sixteen that it's sort of like their
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: candidacy is what you are being judged against. Everything is
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: in conjunct, like and the entire Republican primary became about
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: who was going to be the alternative to Trump, and
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: that AOC's presence will be so big inside if she
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: does run. And I was more convinced of that after
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: watching just how quickly the interest level in her freezing
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: her eggs.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Oh my gosh through the way and so it's just
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: a Republicans and Democrats by the way. So it was
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: a reminder that like just her mere presence is going
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: to be this magnetic force of attention. The attention economy
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: is a bigger force in this than we realize. It's
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: why I I am skeptical of Newsom's ability to get there,
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: but I understand why.
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: I understand the case. The doubters will make back at me.
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: The pro Newsom case is not crazy to me. I
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: just am skeptical that he can play in Michigan, Iowa,
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: like I just it's South Carolina. I'm just skeptical that
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: the California kid can do this.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Prove me wrong totally, and you know, I will, I will.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: You know he is an incredibly gifted political athlete, but
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: he doesn't have a good record to run on.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: He doesn't mean I don't I mean Jerry nor does
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: he have a good home state or home city to
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: run on. Correct, there is not a great story to tell.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: He has essentially managed a situation that could have been worse.
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: I do accept that premise, right, you know, but he's
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: been like he's the he's the the the pro business
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: Democrat dealing with this super majority that's constantly yonda yank
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: him to the left. It's put him in these impossible
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: positions where he has to come out against the Democratic base.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: It's against the billionaire's against the billionaire in California, functionally
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: keep the tax base in California from right. Yep. So
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: that's why I have my doubts on Gavin. I just
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: don't see how it his record becomes an issue more
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: than I think people fully appreciate versus an AOC. You
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: doesn't even really have one, right, she doesn't have one,
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: that is fully you know, she's you could see her
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: already sort of that woke one. Yeah, that was, And
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: that's totally an attempt to be like, oh but when
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: I was young and stupid, I was young and stupid.
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: Kind of, But how about the fact that everybody's willing
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: to Okay, it's like she's getting fascinated that she's sped Trump.
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: Trump was able to just dismount Oh, that's who cares
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: what I did before, that doesn't matter. And voters are like, okay, right,
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: and and it and it's so I think the the
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: one thing that I'm look she she may not run.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: And I'll have to tell you the freezing.
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: The decision to go public with freezing her eggs to
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: me because that was a question I had. I said,
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: you know, she's thirty eight, does she want a family?
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: I don't, you know, she's going to twenty eight? Is
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: one of these four in the road. I'm guessing for
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: her own life and one hundred percent, and clearly she's
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: decided she wants to preserve both paths of her life.
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: And I and more power to her, and oh, by
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: the way, good for her that we both have that
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: she has the means and the technology to do it.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: You know, not a lot of people now. It's expensive,
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: and she's talked about needing to stay save up for it.
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: And I think that it's an That's why I admire
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: that she's going public about it, because I think people
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: need to understand that this is a luxury for many
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: people because it's so costly. This is not something that
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: we just do. Now, maybe maybe there'll be a movement
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: in this country that says, hey, if we could give
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: women this option without it being a financial burden, then
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: women can have more success in their young careers and
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: be able to balance these things. And perhaps she champions
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: something like that, and perhaps that becomes very sticky, sticky issue.
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: But forget the details of this. It was a reminder
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: to me that she has the ability to be larger
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: than everybody in the field times ten. And then all
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: of a sudden that marginalizing marginalizes a whole bunch of people.
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: We're all anticipating this giant field of democrats, we are.
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: Her presence could be so big if she chooses to
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: run and get in early that all of a sudden,
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: half the governors that are thinking about it say no.
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: Half the senators like Corey Booker, I don't think he
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: runs a bag. Where's the space, you know, where's this,
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: where's you know? There's a few of these campaigns that
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: kind of need their own free media to take off,
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: not just organizational stuff. So I think I'm not one
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: hundred percent she runs, But if she runs, I think
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: she is a much bigger force than this and potentially
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: just paralyzes so many other candidates. Some folks realize, I mean,
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: I'm with you.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: I mean I think she has like a very clear
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: path to the final two or three candidates if she
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: does run fundraising ideology. Not if she runs, no chance,
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: you know, because space the same question.
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: And I don't know what Pritzker does now. Pritzker's going
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: to run because damn it, Pritzker's got the money and
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: he can right, right, But Pritzker is trying to be
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: the governor that can be the be trusted by the progressives.
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: Where's the room for him.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: Especially if she moves away from woke one to a
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: like electable economic populist as opposed to a super lefty
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: democratic socialist.
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: I don't buy John Assoff run him. First of all,
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: do I think he's got the ambition? Yes, of course.
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: Is he really going to roll in from one campaign
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: right into another.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: I don't know. So he might just decide I'll be
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: the I'll be the first guy off the bench. But
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do this, and I'm happy to be
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: the running mate. And maybe that's a better spot form anyway.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: So I want to I want, I want to do.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: I want one more thing on AOC, which is you
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: when when the calendar came out d NC calendar, which
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: over the weekend was voted on informalized for people unfamiliar,
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: basically starts at the end of January with South Carolina
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: and then every week South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, Virginia,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: so that that runs and then Super Tuesday in March.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: And you I think raised a very plausible case that
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: this this map setup was set up to keep a
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: very liberal candidate from winning. So I struggle with the
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: like as a if we don't consider the nitty gritty,
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: like how the nomination gets won in each state, I
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: think she is the most likely to be the nominee
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: when you look at the nitty gritty, though, do you
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: still feel because I'm with you on the she's a
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: huge culture.
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: Bath, right, so she's in and obviously South Carolina is
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: not her best spot and everybody already knows this. So
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: she has the ability to be the front runner while
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: being an underdog in the first state. That's a powerful thing,
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: right That was like Obama he was he got to
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: be the underdog in Iowa.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: As far as fubion, you come top three, anything is gravy, basically, yeah, correct, So.
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: What South Carolina will produce is who her chief foil
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: will be, right, And that's what you know. And then
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: all of a sudden you move on to state number two,
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: which I guess in this Nevada is going to be.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Nevada, which is good for her in theory, good.
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: For her because I hate look, I hate that Nevada
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: is just a just an endorsement contest. But I do
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: think that Culinary Union has more. She's going to connect
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: more with the right and follow the Culinary Union than
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: most others. And then you start to see, okay, look
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: I can there's obviously a path for her in Michigan.
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: AlSi had showed us the path New Hampshire.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: You know the thing with New Hampshire. New Hampshire is
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: it politics. I think it's more Bernie. He's won twice.
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's right. I'm a little skeptical there. Virginia
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: is a tough spot for her. I really think, you know, yeah,
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: you know, New Mexico is good for her chops.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: So it's like, if you know, if she went, you know,
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: you could see her being in a position to win Nevada,
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: New Mexico, Michigan, and then finished second in South Carolina,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: New Hampshire, and Virginia, and then Super Tuesday, and then
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: it's a delegate contest. Like the point is, you're asking me,
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: what does that scenario look like? I Look, I stand
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: by what I said. This calendar is designed to make
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: it harder for her to become the nominate or Bernie
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: or whoever's in the progressive lane.
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: But let's assume it's her at the same time. You know,
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: in an odd way, if you're on the progress in
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: the progressive lane, you're thankful South Carolina's first total. It
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: should crowd, it should at least splinter things where her
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: at nineteen to twenty percent isn't a blowout loss but
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: instead a close third place finish, right, And that's possible.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: What that looks like? Look, I mean, look at what
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: happened in twenty twenty when South Carolina was fourth. Biden wins,
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: Bernie finishes distant, and all of a sudden it's like, oh,
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: we can't win. Well, we talked about we talked about
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: this when we talked about the calendar initially, which is,
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: to your point, like South Carolina is playing a very
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: different role in twenty eight than it's played before. It
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: is no longer the it's down to two. It's there's
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: ten and it winnows to five or whatever it is,
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: which is different. I think good for her. Okay, Gavin.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: Here's what I struggle with with Gavin, other than the things,
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: you know, where does he win If you're the governor
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: of California and you're going to be one of the
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: top three ish candidates probably embedding odds and polling and
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: all that stuff. I struggle South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, Mexico, Michigan.
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry, you got to win the state that borders
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: yours first, and you've got one that borders there's no
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: excuse you have. You can get the Las Vegas is
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: Minnie La anyway, there's like, there's no reason. There's a
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: lot of California Trent.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: Now. The problem is why do people leave California for Nevada? Yeah, Texas?
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: Right, So it's a it's a This is why I'm
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: very skeptical on Gavin. It's not Gavin the individual, it's
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: the position. I think any Democratic governor, By the way,
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: have we seen California Democrats don't do well. Kayla Harris
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: got her butts kicked really that close.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: She dropped out any voting by twenty sixteen because she
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: wasn't anywhere Clouds.
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: She smartly put her headquarters in the East Coast. Now
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: she had that luxury because she she had an office
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: on the East Coast being a sitting senator. You know
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: that's that would be advice number one he's gonna get,
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: which is set up your headquarters not in California, have
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: a headquarters in county.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: Put it in San Francisco.
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: But maybe put the Maybe put the headquarters in Michigan,
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: because why not, right, that's going to be a main
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: state for both the primaries and the general. Yeah, you know,
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: decide that you're going to make you know, Grand Rapids, Detroit, whatever,
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: you know.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: And he was clear, I know what I would do.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: He's making a play there too. You know, he was
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: on he was in Michigan last week. He was on
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: Whitmer's podcast, or she was on his podcast. I can't
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: keep it trade anymore. He clearly thinks there's something there.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: I'm with you. I would if we did arrows, I
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: would have an aoc up arrow and a Gavin down Arrow.
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: Look, here's why I think the prediction markets have made
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: him seem more viable. And I think if they didn't exist,
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: nobody would be talking this up. But because the prediction
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: markets only have the attention to bet On and he's
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: been really good in this off year of being part
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: of the conversation because of the redistricting thing that gave
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: him a platform in twenty five when the Democrats had
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: no real opposition, lea opposition leader and he became the
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: de facto leader of the opposition because he became the
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: guy that was the bulwark against this Texas redistricting thing,
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: and it gave him so and the prediction markets were
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: a vehicle to show, hey, look people are paying attention
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: to the attention he's moving right, And so I do
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: think the prediction markets artificially overrate his chances and their
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: mere existence puts them like and this is where like
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: the sophisticated, these prediction markets are in one point zero
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: and you don't have very many sophisticated investors, yet you
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: just have people that are trading off the attention economy.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: And because of that, you know that, look that's going
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: to get it sixty to sixty five percent, right, but
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: it's not going to be a ninety five percent guarantee.
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: And I think Gavin somebody that throwing the fact that
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: probably there are more people on the prediction markets in
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: California than there are in probably like fifteen states.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: Right, and they all know his name, that's right.
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: So I just think it's I think the entire the
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: only reason why Gavin's numb by Gavin is is treated
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: as if he's like a top tierate is the is
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: the mere existence of these markets that just sort of
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: sit there, and I think give artificial just artificially overrate
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: his standing. And now, look, I'm operating on the way
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: we've this is operated in the past.
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: Is it possible in this post COVID there are no guardrails,
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: there are no media gatekeepers, mindset that anything goes and
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: the and basically the hustler wins. He's a hustler. No
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: one's gonna you know, Gabby is a hustler. Yep, he
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: will campaign his ass off. I think that of John Assof,
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: that guy's a hustler. Yep. You don't really eighty seven
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: million dollars for a cent a race without being a
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: hustler footage is a hustler, I will tell you.
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I say this, this is gonna I
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: don't want this to come across as a critiquet. Does
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: Mark Kelly want it bad enough to do whatever it takes?
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know the answer to that. Neither do I.
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: And we know that's a critical piece or this.
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: Does Andy Bursheer have that? Does Josh Shapiro have that?
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: Does Pritzker? Does Wes Moore? I don't know? Like, no,
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: do they? Are they willing to crawl over broken glass
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: for this? Are they willing to risk their personal relationships
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: so that they're willing to do this? And we know
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: and so you have to be You can't.
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: Like you really did you have to burn the boats?
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: It's just how it cannot. I'm not going to underrate
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: Gavin the worker, yep, and the workhorse.
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: That guy.
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: He's going to work his ass off and he's going
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: to be talking me into this, right, and he's going
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: to be working. You know, he's not going to take
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: our skepticism. It's sort of like challenge accepted, right, That's it,
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: which is a very he is really good one on one.
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: I don't know you know it's funny. Here's this charming,
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: charismatic guy who I think does better in a one
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: on one atmosphere.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, which is when a larger much of that correct
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: when you launch your room. It's harder. There's the artificialness comes.
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: There's an artificialness to it. There's a used car salesman vibe.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: The bigger the broom gets. I think the more people
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: he's talking to and.
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: It's one on one, he's sort of like, yeah, I
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: know everybody thinks I'm a pretty boy, and then I'm
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: on this. He's sort of he's self and I admire
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: anybody in this business who could show me a little
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: self awareness. So I don't you know, I I I
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: My skepticism is how Californians are treated in the rest
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: of the country. It's less about Gavin Newsom, but he
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: doesn't strike me as a guy that's going to play
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: in Michigan and Wisconsin.
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: And I think it's hard. I just think it's unovercomable. Her.
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: I ask you this, You think Josh Turrek's gonna invite
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: Gavin the campaign with him?
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: No, I don't.
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: Do you think Gavin's gonna want to find out? You
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: think he'll say, can I think you will?
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, look, it's the Mary Peltola saying I don't
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: want to Harrison Alaska. This is the problem.
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, do you think that was the staff or failed?
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: Did you see apparently? I guess She's like, was this
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: somebody below her said sure, go ahead?
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: Well I think somebody signed off on, Hey, we can
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: use all the money we want. Yeah. Yeah, I think
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: they don't want to be associated Kamala Harris will raise
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: us money? Why not? And they did it? And because
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: it doesn't but this is she felt like this was
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: a guy. She was like, what are we doing? Sure?
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: And she's going, what are you doing? And I feel
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: like Gavin I feel the same way about Harris, which
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: is like, it's just gonna be hard. You're tied to
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: San Francisco to give you this Californil.
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: I got a simpler analysis on Kamala Harris. If she
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: were running for president, she wouldn't have bought a place
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: in Malibu.
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: Hmmm. Interesting.
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: Do you think, God, I wish I wish I had
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: Malibu money?
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: But do you think she won't run, Chuck or do
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: you think she ends up not running?
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: That's not running okay, because she's not going to look.
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: I am on the record I believe she shouldn't run.
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: I believe she should bide her time. I think there
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: actually is life down the road for her polity. She's
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: not that old, No, one hundred percent. I think she
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: look she got thrown into something that wasn't fair. The
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: by baggage is super heavy. She's gonna Here's why I
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: think she ends up not running. She's going to find
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: out over the next eight months all these donors that
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: are not going to be with her, and she is
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: not going to be somebody who says I'm going to
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: prove them wrong.
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: And in twenty thirty two, the Biden baggage is way
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: in the backs. Here's the thing.
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: If she runs under these circumstances and gets basically gets
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: sort of put and it's a dan Quayle like candidacy,
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: that's it, right, and she's never got another chance. If
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: she chooses not to run, she is preserving opportunities down
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: the road. I totally agree credibility with the powers that be,
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: and I think it.
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: Would be crazy not to want And I think you
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: could try to play kingmaker a little bit. She could try.
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: You know, she's doing everything I would be if she
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: were asking my advice, I'd say, well, I pretend I
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: were running relevance for one hundred percent, and so I
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: know you because I'm sure as people are like, well,
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: she's doing all these things, yeah, I'd be doing it too.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: Of course she's the second she's says he's not running.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: No one cares. That's right.
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: Al Gore did the same thing, yes, until he finally
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: decided in twenty twenty oh two that he wasn't going
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: to do it. But he kept it going and so
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: it it did freeze some people. I will tell you this,
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: both Gavin and Kamala can't run.
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: Now we know this.
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: You come from the same state. You can'nibalize it. No,
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: it is just like Asuff and Warnock.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: And I think and I think one of the I
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: think only one Diego and Kelly, only one of them runs.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: We talked about all stuff, and we'll talk about him more.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, I kind of want to see, like what
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: does the margin look like in November. We'll talk about
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: him more down the road. He clearly is. You know
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: that he and AOC are at the end of the
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: eighth candidates right now for Democrats. We'll talk about him more.
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: I want to talk about a guy who we talked
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: about in Passing a Bunch.
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: I believe the last I believe, by the way, the
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: last Senate candidate to go from a Senate campaign to
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: the presidency's Abraham Lincoln.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: I was going to say, people are like Obama. I'm like, well,
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna lict you to know four and N and eight.
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: It's not the same like it's you have a little
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: bit of time to cool off, your donors have a
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: chance to recover.
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: Not to put more pressure at us off, but.
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: A tough camp AG fifty eight. You know, Lincoln loses
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: to Douglas for the Senate.
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: He won the debates, right, he lost the insider campaign
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: and became president two years later. So that's the president
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: of going from a state campaign immediately to running for
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: president going I think I don't think. I can't remember
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: who had the first in the nation caucuses back in
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: acy me.
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: Either, me neither. I do want to talk about Mark
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: Kelly because I saw this in playbook. He was in
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: Iowa over the weekend. He's speaking of John ossof Mark
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: Kelly is going to campaign with John Ossa for the
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: next feple days. This quote, Chuck, is super interesting, I thought,
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: because it sounded kind of like, Okay, this is Kelly
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: to Adam Wren, who writes playbook. I've had a president
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: try to indict me forious conspiracy. I've had the Iraqi
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: shoot missiles at my airplane. One blew up next to me.
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: I've almost flown into the ground a bunch of times.
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: I flew on a rocket chip four times built by
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: the lowest bidder. My wife was nearly assassinated, shot in
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: the head doing this job, the same job I've been now. Yeah,
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: I've had a lot, you know, ups and downs. It's
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: taught me a lot, especially Gabby, about resiliency, about never
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: giving up, never backing down, and always trying to make
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: this country a better place. You know, Chuck, I don't
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: want to read too much into it, but that yours
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: hell sounds like part of a.
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: Pretty powerful story, pretty good in some speech.
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: I agree.
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: Look, I have said I if the DNC could come
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: up with a ticket and a lab it's Mark Kelly
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: and Raphael Warnock, and you decide the order. Okay, let
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: randomize the order. Give me a pastor and an astronaut,
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: and let's bring this country together.
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: Right, one from a sweet state in the south, one
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: from a sweet state in the west.
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm like, you know, look, how are we
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: going to heal this country? Give me a dreamer that
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: has seen all of us from space, and give me
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: a faith, a man of faith right at hand of
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: the cloth. The thing with Kelly is, I just don't
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: know if the base of the Democratic Party will accept him.
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: I think he's got an ace in the hole, and like,
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: you know, look, he's a he's I really think he's
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: the closest thing Democrats have to an independent in there
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: that that's got who.
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: Could potentially win right right, like someone who's not too
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: far right center.
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: Look, I don't underestimate the gun thing as a negative
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: for him in getting elected.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: And I say this because.
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: It is surprising to me and I always see it, like,
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: you know, you have this group of voters, particularly among independents,
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: that are left leaning on a lot of issues except guns, and.
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: Always find people Bernie Sanders, Bernie Sanders is look at
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: his record and gun control right, and he's.
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: Going to be to the left of Bernie and you know,
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: and that'll that'll that'll get used a lot. And you know,
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: he's he's tried to create a different conversation on guns. Hey,
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: I'm a gun owner, right, I you know, I've.
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: Seen Gifford's experiences. I mean it's very powerful.
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: And understandable and and and the gun violence issue, now,
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: to me, that should be should be his immunity for progressives,
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: for the for the base of the party. But the
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: base of the party doesn't care about that issue the
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: way they used to. I'm not saying they don't care
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: about it, but it isn't the top one or two
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: issues that anime. And then the other thing I worry
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: about with him is is he you know, he's kind
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: of he's got a few business deals that are part
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: of the tech world.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: Is he going to be.
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: Considered too pro business and a party that's very skeptical
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: of the capitalistic system at the moment, now they're not down,
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: you know, I believe I believe that capitalism needs some
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: rescuing here. I think that they need a They need
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: some body who can sort of save capitalism from the capitalists.
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: Right, we can't just be you let a thousand flowers bloom.
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: Open market is always right Anderson, we were saying, and
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: he could fit in that space, but he's not space,
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: he's not an economic populist.
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: I would be a bigger Kelly advocate if I thought
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: he were running outside the party.
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: I'll be honest.
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: I just think he's His profile is perfect. The biggest
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: demerit he's going to have with voters in the middle
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: is his party id And and you know, he's a Republican.
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: Before he became a Democrat. People forget this, he was
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: a registered Republican from Texas c You know, look, I
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: think there's a lot that if Kelly ended up the
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: Democratic nominee. I think he's more of a net if
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: he could look if he could unite that party around
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: his candidacy, more power to him.
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know what the lefts. I don't think they're
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: anti Kelly, but he's not but one of them. I mean,
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: I can see the best thing that happened to Mark
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: Kelly's presidential ambitions in the last couple of years, Donald Trump.
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: Trying to attacking him conspiracy, dismissing him as a running mate. Yep,
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, and he has no ties to that, even
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: though that in itself, the whispers around that that is slowed.
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: I think buzz around him, that graf You and I
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: both know that that exists. We've talked about it. It
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: is because everybody around Kamalad told everybody correct, people like
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: us being like because if you look at him, senator astronaut,
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: his wife was almost killed, Like there's a lot there
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: to recommend him. And then you're like, well, but then
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: I heard that, Like, I think he'd be higher in
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: the buzz world were it not for that whisper campaign.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: Doesn't mean it screws him the long run, but that
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: was a thing.
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: But you know what's going to be you know he
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: is to me, he is a a. He needs an issue,
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: Like what is his issue? What do you associate them with?
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: I don't, right, and that I think that's that's what
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: when you're trying to figure out who's going to be
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: the alternative AOSA.
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: Because she is a very clear economic populism millionaires and billionaires.
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: He just get the burning message.
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but but it and clearly she's the change candidate.
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: She's the change candidate inside the party, and she gets
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: to be the change candidate outside the party. How do
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: you run as a member of the sort of call
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: it the normy wing of the governing comartee. I like
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: that guning wing is what I've been trying to use
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: and be a change agent inside the party. It's to
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: be a change agent. If you become the party nominee,
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: that's a little easier, But can you be the change
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: agent inside the party? And what is the party looking for?
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: We've had this fight. Do they want somebody to make
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: the system work? Or do they want somebody to fight
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: fire with fire?
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: And that's you.
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: Know, I think has been a pretty good fighter against
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: Trump on some things, which you're right, has given him
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a little bit of lyft.
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: What's the the issue?
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: Right, what's the I know, why not them? And I
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: know in theory you may be very electable, veryet appealing biography,
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: biographies don't win president.
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: I was going to say on paper, great, but we've
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: seen this over and over and over again. And this
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: gets back to what you mentioned earlier about him, which
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: is very hard to know. We are not suggesting he
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: doesn't have the heart for it. We just don't know yet.
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: Like he is a relatively unknown weirdly for a US senator,
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: but he is not as much of a known commodity
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: as a lot of the people who he's going to
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: be he's the astronaut.
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, right, I would if you want to see
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: what I mean, John Glenn, if you want to go
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: back in history. You know, I've joked there's a I've
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: got a lot of unwritten books, unwritten book ideas, right.
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: One of them is the I can't Believe they never
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: became President book. And I've always said that there's like
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: two you know, there'll be two people on my cover.
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: One is John Glenn and the other's Bill Bradley. But
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: both John Glenn and Bill Bradley both suffered from incredible
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: resumes that never translated. Yep, and both.
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: Of them classic never meet your heroes kind of situation. Well,
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: and they both shared the charismic charisma challenge. I mean,
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: I was just a just tape to You'll love this.
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: I was just taping a podcast with John Kasik and
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: we were talking about somehow we were talking about this
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: the name Howard Metzenbaum and and he I know, no
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: one knows who Howard metzen Bomb is him. And he goes,
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: but he was this harascable figure.
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: I said, he goes, you know, and all this, and
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: I said, he beat John Glenn in a primary.
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: I said, whatever, he was one tough, sob right. He
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: just knew he'd like he beat an American hero and
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: a Democratic primary I think in nineteen seventy two, and
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: then I think it was two years later Glen's ends
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: up winning the other Senate seat, and the two then
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: serve together for a good for a good twenty years
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: until metzen Bomb retired. But it was you know, Glenn
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: was all resume. I mean, I can't believe the guy
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: the first one to orbit the are totally. But you know,
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: Bill Bradley was the same way the seventies. I mean,
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: both Bradley and Glenn addressed the seventy six Democratic Convention.
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: Gets on YouTube if you want to see what I mean.
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: And we don't have charisma, you just don't.
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: And Kelly, I've seen him.
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: He's got the bad habit of in order to show excitement,
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: he yells, you know how some people like their way
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: of showcasing. You know you need to you need to
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: bring more of it. And you're like, okay, I will
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: start yelling and you're like, wow, noises right and louder.
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: Is it what we're looking for? Maybe it's a little
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: bit faster, maybe it's a little funnier.
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's a little manic dramatic, right, like, it doesn't
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: have to just be loud, And he's kind of got
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: the yeah, well I'm at a rally.
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: I'll just get know. I think there's a charisma question there.
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: Who knows? But you know who knows? All right, let
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: me do one other thing about this. Let me pull
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: these odds back up, because I do people love a
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: dark horse or a long shot. I'm gonna use Polymarket
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: because they've got more names listed here. See I like it.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: I like to me, like, what name's not on here?
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: That should be? So look in here, Chuck, I'm just scrolling.
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: So obviously we've dealt with dealt with a lot of
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: these people. Mark Kelly at three percent might be kind
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: of intriguing. Is there anyone who jumps out at you?
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: Or who's I mean, Hunter Biden? Come on? Is there
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: anyone who jumps out at you on this very long list?
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: Barack Obama feels unlikely to me, mister people know that mom?
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: Do people know that mom? Donald Donnie cannot be president?
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: Obviously they don't know that, Chuck. Is there anyone that
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: jumps out at you in here that you're like, I
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: don't know if that person will win. But like if
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: I was trying to make money on there at one
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: percent now and I think they'll get to thirty percent
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: at some point. I've got one. But I want you
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: who do you? I know you're keen on wes Moore
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: and we've talked about that. He's at five. I don't
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: know if you can say someone who's at five is
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: like a long shot. I mean, you can feel free,
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: But tell me who jumps out at you there? Well,
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: who's not on there?
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: I think it's look if if they're if not AOC,
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: then it's row Conna and it's show me.
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: Let me scroll down more, Hold on, scroll down more?
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: Because Rocana is at two? Rocana is at two? Where's Pritzker?
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: He is here? One? One?
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I throw Pritzker because of all that. He's the
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: only governor that I think could appeal to the to
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: the left.
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: In a in a more. Yeah, And he's gonna have
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: the money the way because he can write his own check,
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: you know mine, And it's not like a wild one.
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: And I really don't think he's going to be the nominee.
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: But it's right here, rom because I have some level
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: of faith in his I think He for a guy
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: who knows he has he's got to get better know
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: he's not in that top tier. He does interesting stuff
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: when he talks about social media. He goes to Mississippi
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: and meets with Tate Reeves. I see it.
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: Rom would have ra Rom would have benefited from the
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: Iowa Caucasus.
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, because he'd been Illinois and he's a get to
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: know you guy. And the more you get to know him,
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: the more you're going, wait a minute, what are we
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: doing here? This guy's uber qualified, he's super smart, He's
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: got a lot of ideas and charismatic.
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: Aware, but he kind of like he's he's not pretentious.
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: He is super wealthy. He's sneaky wealthy.
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: Right, brothers in a lot of money. Yep.
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: Rom is somebody that needs He's like wine. He needs
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: time to age with you, and you've got to.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: Get comfortable with him. And I say, South Carolina is
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: not a great fit to be. That's the state where
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: you're going to spend the most time.
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: That said, I think Rom's very comfortable in South Carolina.
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: Interesting.
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: Rom is going to you know, We've I've had conversations
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: about this. I said, you know, I really think there's
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: a total underinvestment in rural black voters in general. That
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: this is South Carolina and Mississippi, and I know he
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: had spent time down there. I said, you know, it's
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: funny to me how few Democrats make rural black voters
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: a priority. And it really does to me reinforce the
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: idea that Democrats have a rural problem. It's not just
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: rural whites. It's rural Hispanics in Texas, and it's rural
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: blacks in the South. And what it is is skepticism,
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: distrust that you understand their way of life.
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: That's right, that it's not just an urban right not
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: a big city coastal party. So I think rom is
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: quite comfortable trying to sort of break through, and he will. Look,
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: I think he's running no matter like, right, you're right
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: to bet on him as a long shot, because it's unlikely.
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna I don't want to rule it out.
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: I'm certainly skeptical that the party's left flank will ever
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: accept him.
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: They will not. That's why I don't think he's Look,
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying I think Ramamanu is going to be
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: the nominee, but he is trying to sober his party. Yep,
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: and he is going to interist to your point about
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: who is going who do we know that has the
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: fight in them to grind? We know that about him, right,
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: He will.
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: Grind, he will, and he will and he will also listen.
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: You know, some of these guys don't know how to
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: listen to the people around them. Ram being a guy
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: who started as an oppo research.
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: It's gonna say he was the people around him at.
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: One correct, So he in some ways it's he could
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: easily have arrogance about it and say I don't know,
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: I know better than them. That isn't who he is, right.
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: He is more like a Terry mcculloff in the same way.
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: Terry's really good about listening to people around him.
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: I just, by the way, if you're looking for someone,
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: I want to.
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: Tell you something about Terry mccuoff and Dorothy mccaulloff that
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: will explain why they have such credibility and uh inside
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: the democratic establishment without asking. I know of multiple donors
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: who just got all that were Dorothy McCullough. You know,
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: she had raised money for a Congression to run the
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: new New Virginia map without asking just mailed refunds back.
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: Yep, never did.
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: And it is one of those I know, like I
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: said multiple folks that this happened, and it was just like,
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: not made a big deal.
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: It's just you know, that's it.
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: Just it's a reminder some people are really good. The
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: mcauffs of Grace understand how to do him. Rob Emanuel
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: understands it. They've been in the business, they know what works.
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: This is not the cycle for an insider like Rob Right. No,
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: it's not a good fit.
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: It's a cycle for a truth teller like Rob Right,
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: an ideas guy and.
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: An ideas guy, because Democratic Party is kind of out
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: of ideas and he's got a lot of ideas.
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: And it is because I think the most interesting aspect
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: of Wisconsin, for instance, is Crawley didn't win because he
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: was for something. Crawley won because he was against something.
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: Francesca Hung almost won because she was for something and
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: she ended up losing.
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: Because she was forced she was for something. Totally.
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: The Democrat at a governing what needs to figure out
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: how to be for something. And Rom's got a whole bunch.
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: Of four correct totally agree anyway, we will do Democrats
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: next week, and I'll be you Republicans next week, and
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: obviously we'll keep an eye on it. Chuck, I got
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: two more things I want to I definitely want to
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: ask you about. First of all, Tuesday is the Florida Primary.
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: Now it's it's not gotten a massive amount of attention
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: because there's not like one giant fight. We kind of
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: know what's going on. I want to ask you. By
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: the way, we will be live Tuesday night seven, eight
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: thirty Chuck, myself, Jeffrey Kelly, the Decision Fast, Fast Fast.
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: We will have accounting here before nine pm, so we
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: will be live on Twitter, YouTube, substackle, across all of
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: our stuff. You will be able to find it. I
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: hope you watch it. We really enjoy doing it with
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: the Decision Desk HQ. People give me your well, let's
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: tell you this Twice in the last week I've been
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: doing you know, Chuck and I basically talk for a living.
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: So I've been doing podcasts or whatever with somebody else
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: and They've give me a random prediction and I say, look,
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: I don't know that this will happen, but like if
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: David Jolly got forty seven and a half percent and
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: Byron Donald's got fifty and one percent in November. Like,
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: I would not fall down dead if it was like
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: an under five. Oh, I think it's destined front. Okay,
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: So talk about that because I think people think Florida
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: is now non competitive because of DeSantis in twenty twenty two. No,
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's non competitive. I think look, there's a.
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: You know, one little thing is the direction of the
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: state is in better shape than the direction of the country, Okay,
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: and that is a benefit.
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: People are more optimistic.
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: That doesn't mean they're not negative, but they're super negative
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: about the country much less negative about the state.
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: That matters a little bit.
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: People are, you know, there's I think Ron Desanta's is
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: one out as welcome. I don't think it translates to
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: the Republican Party just yet as far as the state
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: is concerned. I know there are going to be some
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: going No, I can't stand it. I'm sure you can't.
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: But they keep winning, right, So obviously there's not enough
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: of you on that front. But I think, like, I
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: don't think Ron DeSantis could win a third term, which
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: you're saying, like under I really don't. I just think
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: he kind of is. He's not mister personality. He's kind
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: of more about a charisma deficit. Well, you know, we
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: saw it when he isn't it. This is you know,
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: his lieutenant governor is getting his butt kicked in this race.
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: He wanted his wife to run to replace him, and
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: there was no appetite for that or you know, he
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: was Look, she's not going to run to lose, so
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: she chose not to run. But I am curious what
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: the Donald's number is going to be in the primary.
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: I've seen, you know, you've seen some numbers that say,
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: is he going to be in the sixties or you know,
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: he is running against a former state speaker and a
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: sitting lieutenant governor. Are you really telling me he's getting
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: over sixty? Like, I think expectations have gotten a little
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: out of whack for him. You know, I expect so
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: of like a fifty one.
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: Twenty something. Yeah.
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, let's there's one reason that everybody tells me
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: among my Florida friends, whether they're Republican or Democrat, my friend,
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: as to why they think Donald's is not a shoeing,
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: and that's simply the color of his skin.
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: There is a big unknown. There is a presumption about
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: North Florida that he's going to underperform the normal Republican number.
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: Is this primary or general election, general general, both, but
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: more so in the it's more so matter more in
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: the general. Right, So there's it is. I mean, Dave
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: Jolly is like a middle aged white guy. If you
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: don't know the middle aged white guy.
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it was Mel Martinez his race for
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: Senate for Senate in four he beats Yeah, Betty cast
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: that race was forty nine point four to forty eight
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: point three.
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: Okay, let me give you the George W.
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: Bush versus Carrie in Florida. I believe it was like
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: fifty one forty seven. Let me get it right here,
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: fifty two forty seven.
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: So Bush wins by five and Mel Martinez wins by.
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: One, and he underperformed Bush by three points. And it
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: was all north of Orlando. Okay, he was at the
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: time only the second in by twenty oh four. I mean,
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: now you look back, well, of course a Latino can
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: win statewide in Florida.
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he had.
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: And the last one was Martinez who never spoke Spanish.
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: In fact, that was Bob Martinez when he ran. That
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: was sort of part of it. If he was fifth
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: generation in Spanish.
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: Latino last name correct, he was the first.
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: Latino in the last name, and he certainly it was
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: his heritage. I'm not gonna you know, I don't want
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: that discounted.
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: But that's my favorite bettle of Rourke does not speak Spanish.
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: Right, well, No, like Ted Cruz versus David Doumers, doers
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: spoke Spanish, produce did not, right, which is perfectly normal.
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: How many second generation Germans speak German? Yeah, nobody, Okay.
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: So Mel Martin is telling though, to your point about
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: but that twenty Donald's twenty years ago does happened. So
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: the question is My point is is that every consultant
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: I've talked to all sort of note this, and honestly
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: the only time you've seen evidence of it is in
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: that race. So it didn't it didn't show up in Rubio. No.
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: Now, part of it was you weren't in a big
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: Republican year the first time and the second time he
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: was running on the It wasn't God, it was I
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: remember who was that nominee. It was really sort of hit.
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: They sort of fell on their face on that one.
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: It was not anywhere close, right, that's fast, I will
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: tell you this. I I was had Donald's face Jerry Demmings.
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: I think Ranks had a better shot at beating Donald's
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: than Jolly, because I don't understand. The African American vote
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: is extraordinarily important in Florida and gets kind of underrated
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: because people think of the Cuban vote and the other
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: Latino vote, and you know, whether it's Puerto Ricans and
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: the Central Florida or Colombians and Venezuelans, that the African
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: American vote kind of gets overlooked. And if you ever
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: look at the numbers, when there's an African American on
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: the ticket, Democratic performance goes much much higher than when
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: there's not an African American on the ticket. I will
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: tell you I think Jolly. I think Jolly should have
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: an African American running mate. I think he's going to
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: regret not having an African American Leal. It's interesting that
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: I think Gwen Graham's is terrific.
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, had daughter. For people who don't
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: know Glehen would be, you.
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: Know, finishing up her second term and quite possibly have been.
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: We'd be talking about her in the part of this podcast.
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: I was just going to say, we'd be could have
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: a much different conversation about Gwen Graham's political career, all
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: because Bernie Sanders decided to, you know, play for ten
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: minutes in a democratic I mean, you want to talk
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: about the ultimate butterfly effect. Gwen was more to be
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: in that nominee. Bernie and Sorrows drop up a five
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: million dollar and hand it to Gillim and then gill
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: screwed up campaign finance ridiculousness in that state. Gillim wins,
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: you know, basically wins it in the last minute. She Look,
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: there's no scenario in my head.
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: Where she loses to DeSantis. I don't talk about it.
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: Sliding doors. What if butterfly, it's a I mean, it's
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: a gigantic, gigantic one. Can I get your snap predictions
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: on two other ones? In Florida? Does Corey Mills vary
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: in battled? We don't have enough time in this podcast
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: to go through all the allegations against him. Republican running
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: in Florida's seventh UH does sant DeSantis has said I
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: do not support him. Trump endorsed him in February, but
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: hasn't mentioned him since. A couple Republican members of Congress
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: in Florida have endorsed against him. Does he win or lose.
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: Look, it's a crowded primary, so if he wins, that's
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: how he does it. But kudos to Governor DeSantis for
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: just you know, he didn't know. Look, he hadn't decided
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: who to endorse. And I understand that you don't know
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: which one of those, but you're that was something that
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: some party leader needed to say. We don't yes with that,
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: We're not with you know, Trump doesn't have any character
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: tests that he does. I'd like to think there are others,
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: So you know, good for him, Good for Governor DeSantis
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: for saying it, because I do think that matters. I
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: think that that for me, I think that will because
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: you know, it's it got a headline. It caught everybody company. Yes, right,
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: and I think that stuff matters this late and you're not,
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: You're like, yeah, I can't vote for the guy.
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to do it. I do too. I
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: think I think he loses, But you're right, if he
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: does win, it's it's with a giantly fractured somewhere somewhere under.
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: He wouldn't get over forty talking about the black boat
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: in uh Florida. One other which has not gotten as attention,
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: but w Washington Schultz from is now running in a
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: district that is majority black, right does.
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: She We used to have a runoff rule in Florida,
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: and there's anymore this would have been a runoff and
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: she'd a loss to whichever African American candidate in her second.
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: Uh, you might guess she's working her ass off. I'll
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: give her that. Nobody can.
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: This is South Florida, her right off. It's it's a
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: little bit of brower to Miami gardens. I think she's
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: getting parts of Miami.
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: Sh I know the districts are all redne right, Yeah,
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: they alreadyid it. And so.
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: You know, there was a lot of grumbling among African
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: American leaders for her jumping into the you know, but look,
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: if she wins, she earned it. She worked, she worked it,
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, you know, and certainly there wasn't a consolidation
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: of the black vote to stop so we could could
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: be like a Detroit situation where you know where the
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: next cycle, but who knows what the what.
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: The maps look like.
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: I'll just give you one other thing, and I said
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: in my I'm just curious to see how Vinman does
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: in the primary.
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: Me too, I get so many Vinman questions chuck, Yeah,
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: I don't buy it.
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: And you know, and my issue with Vinman, and maybe
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: this is the Floridian in me. Look, I know we're
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: filled with carpetbackers.
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: I get it.
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: But I would struggle to vote for somebody who wasn't
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: constitutionally eligible to run for governor. He has not lived
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: in the state, that's right, He's not lived in the
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: state long enough to run for governor. Right, And you know,
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: he just picked Boward County, largest Democratic base to pick.
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: I mean, I look at it. It looks a little
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: manufactured to me.
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: He's going to say, it feels almost too strategic, right,
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: you can kind of see the puppeteer moving the strings. Yeah,
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: he's got always a ton of money, Like I mean,
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's nominee. He already has lost a bunch
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: of money.
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: Angie Nixon is a DSA DSAD Jason and she's been
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: working harder. Now, maybe I don't think that that after
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: Gillam really sort of ruined the socialism, the DSA brand
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: and the socialist adjacent brand in Florida, which already didn't
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: have the greatest brand well.
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: Because of the Cuban right. Any socialism tie is not great.
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: And but I wouldn't be totally shocked if Vinman lost,
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: and I wouldn't be you know. But or he could
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: just end up with the same number Jolly ends up
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: having in his primary.
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: So we'll see. I'm very skeptical of Vinman and just
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: don't see it in general. Yeah, neither do. I could
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: be pair. I get lots of questions about it. All right,
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: this is probably the furthest we've gone in the history
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: of Super Tuesdays without really mentioning Donald Trump. But I
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: don't want it. We didn't. We're not going to spend
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: thirty minutes on this, but I did want to know
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: an important milestone, which is on Monday, August seventeenth. The
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: Memorandum of Understanding that Donald Trump said on June seventeenth
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: would mean the straight up hoorm Moves was reopened. Iran
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: would never seek a nuclear weapon. It officially ended on Monday,
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: with Trump basically saying that he was going to blow
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: the s out of Oman if they cut a deal,
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: and that he's in no hurry to end this conflict.
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: I don't you know, I don't know that there's a
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: question in there, Chuck, other than how the hell does
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: this ends?
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: The big I mean, I was asked how big of
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: a blunder this will look historically by one of my listeners.
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: I think in twenty five years this that Iraq and
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: Iran get merged together. And this basically the biggest presidential
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: blunders of the twenty first century were wars in the
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: Middle East that started with I and that might you
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: might even throw Israel Gaza in there, right like. But
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: the point is is that the biggest you know, I
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: mean this is this is a disaster. And so first
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: of all, we started a war that we were not
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: prepared for. I'm gonna I'm just asking as a taxpayer.
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: Since nine eleven, all we've done is increase the budget
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: of the Defense Department.
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: At one point five trillion dollar budget.
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: And you don't have the resources to make sure the
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: USS Lincoln has food to eat.
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: What the frick in this?
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: I totally agree with the spending all this money on.
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: Talking about testing for tristos serone.
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: Right, I mean, you know, you got to the clown,
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: the clown that eats too much creatine and thinks that
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: that is the word eating.
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: Push up contests.
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: Meanwhile, we can't even feed the troops on the USS Lincoln.
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: We're we We've got that, We've got, We've got the
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: We've put ourselves strategically in positions where we can't really
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: fight a war very effectively, and we went to war
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: anyway we had.
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, it is this is operationally a disaster. We
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: looks like we weren't prepared. It's the policy is a disaster.
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: But I just the policy we could debate, but operationally
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: this is embarrassing and we are I mean, my god,
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: all the money we spend and we can't do a
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: simple thing like keep our troops fed on the USS
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: Lincoln and do proper, proper resource reinforcements for our most
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: important ships at see the two biggest carriers we got.
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: Like, what the hell are we spending this money on?
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: I had to tell you, I mean, it's a it's
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: it's I'd like to see some real audits here. And
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: you've got to look, you've got leadership that I mean.
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: I'm trying really hard to bite my tongue. I think
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: Pete Hegseth is among the worst Americans we've ever had
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: in leadership.
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: Hard stop.
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: I think this is a total utter disgrace and disaster,
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: and yet it's horrible for the rank and file. I
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: can't believe what we're doing. And we're damaging an institution
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: that is our the last one standing standard, well last
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: one standing, and you're gutting it and embarrassing us.
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: I'm just sick of it and sick for it. But
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: I have to tell you, I think this becomes an
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: increasing like like, what are we spending all this money on?
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: We're always trying to get modern equipment and we can't
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: fight this war. We got out maneuvered again by an
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: insurgent country. Are all this money and we lost? The
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: straight of horror moves.
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: I I what are we say? You're doing my second
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: and I'm doing out here, man. I second everything you say.
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: I will add to this. And I think I've mentioned
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: this with you before. I've certainly mentioned it before. I
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: remember I didn't have heart and fast feelings about Pete
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: Hegseth necessarily when he was nominated. But I remember watching
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: the confirmation hearing in front of Armed Services Committee and
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: Jack Reid, who is a demo krat, who is a veteran. Uh,
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: say I, mister haig Seth. I I don't think I
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: would vote for you to be the spokesperson for the
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: Secretary of Defense, and I certainly wouldn't vote for you
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: to be the sec secuor Defense. And I thought to myself,
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: like you and I understand this, Like Jack Read, I
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: know he's a Democrat from Rhode Island, but he is
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: not like a partisan warrior, and particularly when it comes
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: to the military. And I was like, shit, like that
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: Jack Read saying that he is not a guy who's
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: like I'm gonna use this line and then I'll go
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: on MS now and use it, and then I'll go
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: to then I'll go to South Carolina and use it
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: Like That's not he genuinely believes that. And I thought, man,
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: like if Jack Reid thinks that like that actually meant
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: something to me, And man, he has been I think
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: he's been proven right. Whatever you think of Trump's policies,
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: Haig Seth is not this is you push up contest
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: and talking about low tee and all of this is
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: unprepared for this war. I don't know whether this is
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: a Trump issue or a headset issue, but this is
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: an issue and it is operationally on this administration. Yeah,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: I don't want to add because I have nothing to
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: be on that too with you. I think I think
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: it's fine all right? Now another thing that will enrage
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: us both. You got to go go Nationals swept by
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: the Mets.
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: Any thought, Why am I so angry at the front
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: office too?
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: They? Why do we care so much? But they did.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: Look, the larger vision is correct. We're not winning the
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: World Series this year makes watching each game not fun, right.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: But what they did do is I think they aren't.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: They're screwing up Abrams mentally.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: This position change.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: I totally agree with what you shared with the group text.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: This position change you don't do in the middle of
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: a season unless you're on your best player series.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: Or your second best player. I mean, I think you're
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: trying to re sign you know, I am.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: I think this This new group still has done more
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: good than bad in my book, absolutely, But but man,
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: this has been a bad month for this new regime.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: And they they they are they are unnoticed from US fans.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: How's that follow Super Tuesday? iHeart Apple, Spotify, YouTube, follow
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: the Chuck Podcast in all those places and Tuesday Night seven,
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: eight thirty The Floridian, Florida Man Chuck Todd will be there.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: We want to break it down. We will be breaking down.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: The results will make Chuck Chuck discuss. I will bear it.
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: Well, it's all about bashing the Gators.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: That's what I probably should. I will guarantee you that
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: a lot of University of Florida bad talk. All right,
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: go go go Thank you, my friend,