Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - A warning to all investors + Stock Market News 27 September 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - A warning to all investors + Stock Market News 27 September 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Felix, a good morning to you on this glorious Friday.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: And we've got Jerome Powell's favorite inflation number just out, which, of course, is the most exciting thing to happen to you all week.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: So let's dive straight into it and also look at all the other things that are making the market fly like a I don't know an Elon rocket.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: So let's share my screen with you.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: And there we are.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: So data here.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Screenshot from Bloomberg.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: But it'll do.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: I don't think they doonberg this one.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: What have you got?
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Well, you've got PCE, price inflation, which is the most important number for the Fed, and it's coming in kind of as expected, pretty low, right, 0.1% inflation sounds pretty good.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Core PCE slightly lower than expected.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: That's good.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Consumer spending pretty slow.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, you lot could really go out and spend a little bit more money.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: If you're in the US, you would help the stock market, but other than that, it's pretty, pretty good, isn't it?
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: So what does it mean?
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: It means kind of a slightly cooling economy if you look at that data, but not a crashing economy, just a little bit slowing down.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: But let's look a little deeper into the data.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Okay, so I've got here for you two bits of data.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: We've got the personal consumption expenditure, which is the inflation in red here.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: So that's coming down, that's a good thing.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: And then that's meant to be a checkmark, right, that's good.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: And then in green we've got personal income, which is coming down, which is sort of, yeah, not exactly wonderful.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: And if you go back to 2022, that was growing a lot more, right, a lot more.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: And then it sort of slowed down quite a lot, and now you could say that number is artificially inflated.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Perhaps there is some flotation devices attached to the US personal income, which means it's probably a little bit worse.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: And I'll tell you why.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Because, well, I sort of gave it away there, didn't I?
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: The personal income transfer payment, government social benefits to persons what?
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, just the government handing out money to people they think need it.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Well, it's gone up quite a lot.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: You can see right, and tends to happen in election years, independent of who is currently at the helm.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: That's definitely helping.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: So if you took that away, all the handouts, then your consumer spending numbers would probably be worse.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: And given that they're only going up by 0.1% on the month-by-month basis, they're arguably negative without government intervention.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: So there is a little bit of concern around the beloved US consumer.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: And why do we care?
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: The US consumer is 65% of your economy yeah, 65% of GDP, so it really matters what you spend.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: So next time you go out and walk past a shop, just say to yourself I'm going to do something good for my fellow men and I'm going to go buy something.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: It would be helpful.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: So there is that China has found stimulus lots of cash basically being funneled into banks and so on and the markets are absolutely flying off a handle there Short squeezes all around and all that kind of thing.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: So they are going into their national day, holiday week, so let's see how it looks the week after that.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: That's kind of my only take really on that.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: So what else is inflating?
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Yes, our portfolio.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Our portfolio is still up 93 percentage points so far, and that does not account for our rather lovely returns on Tesla, because we only count our chickens once they're hatched.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: So I never tell you oh, but the portfolio is up this much.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: When we close a trade, we tell you.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: That's why the lines are sort of a bit ziggity-zaggity, right.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, our Tesla trade is up 20% at the moment.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: Paypal is up 12%.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: That's pretty sweet stuff.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: So very happy to see that and everything is basically green so far, and so on as well.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn how we do that, I'm not promising you returns.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: I'm always very clear about that.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: I hope I promise to be open and transparent with you.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Come and join me this coming Wednesday and Thursday.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: This is for you lot in London, particularly because you were whinging about the fact that the previous beginner trading challenge was at four in the morning.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Apparently it wasn't worth getting up for.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: So come and join us for two days, about an hour each day at Felix Frenzelog's last challenge, and I'll teach you how it's free of charge.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Our goal here is to make a million people financially free.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: But there is more good news.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Goldman Sachs, who seems to be our go-to for data of late GS, are saying we've got three supportive bullets.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: They think they are, I don't know, ninja turtles or something.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Bullets are the long-short ratio.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: That's what that means.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Bullets are the long short ratio.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: That's what that means.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Versus the S&P are the lowest level in the last two years.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: So let me explain that gobbledygook to you, because it's actually really important.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Look at the blue chart, the blue line.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: There can we find a blue pen.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Microsoft yeah, microsoft has blue ink and if they are above the zero line, it means they are overweight software, which is what blue is.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: So blue is software, but right now they're actually underweight software, which is weird, because you'd think software would be the real beneficiary from AI, but they're pretty underweight.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: The thing In green we've got tech hardware and then in that sort of weird color there we've got semis you know, chips, not trucks chips and what you can see is that they're all underweight, everything right now.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: And what does that mean?
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: Well, it means they could go overweight, they could start putting on the pounds and could go more heavily into tech, generally speaking.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: So that is good news, because when everybody is cautious, it means that they could become less cautious and that way more money would flow into the market and we would all throw a beautiful party.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Ideogenist.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: It says Tuesday, wednesday.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, thursday.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: We did change it yesterday, my friend, if you were very early to sign up, no, no, we changed it.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: So if you go to challenge here, we go.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Felixfriendsorg slash challenge it will.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: It now says Wednesday, thursday.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: Okay, so click on register to all dates.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: That's the only way you get that.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: Sometimes you will try to click on the dates and you can't.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: You have to click to register to all dates and then you can register.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Where is that?
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: It's a very odd flag, isn't it?
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: It's like sort of Maltese cross or something.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: So, yes, that's where we are.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: So that's good news, so good news, and then that's pretty much all the good news we have, actually, no, we have a bit more.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: Costco had some pretty good profits, very good profits, lots of in-store traffic, but shares dipped a little bit pre-market.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: We'll be able to get that in a second, as revenue fell a tad short.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: Well, I care more about profits than revenues.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know about you, but they're saying shoppers are buying more non-food items as inflation is easing, including furnishings and tires, while prices are declining for consumer electronics and appliances.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: Kind of decent numbers there from Costco.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Pretty extraordinary stock, that one.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Actually, it's basically a membership model.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, come and join us on Wednesday and Thursday for our beginner free trading challenge.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: Data and trade vision doesn't seem to be accurate at the moment.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Really, really, what data specifically?
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: My friend Paul, let me know and we'll check it out.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: We have just done a major upgrade which could have something to do with that.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: So it says Amazon's trading at 191.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look, amazon trading at 191.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: So that seems to be accurate.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: So we've got this sort of more easy to use kind of chart here now.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: So we've got the holds.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: So basically, at the beginning of the green period our indicator said buy.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: Now it's an indicator, it's not the gospel, so obviously you got to have risk management and common sense and you know ahead.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: But it's done.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: Over the last year and a half or so it's beaten Amazon's buy and hold strategy by about 32%.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: So it's done a pretty decent job.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: And it said buy me here 19th of August and 16th of August, and we're still in it.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: So we call it a hold because we're not saying get out of it, but we're also not saying, or you're kind of saying, a bit late to the party, right?
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: So that's Amazon looks pretty good here, although down slightly here today, and Meta looking absolutely glorious, right, the run continues all time high.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Tesla.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Let's just let me just double check the data again, because you said 254.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: So at the moment that's showing the last price, not the live pre-market price.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: That'd be nice to get that in there.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: I'll make a note of that If you click on the advanced chart in the top right.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: This is all in trade vision.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: By the way, there is a trade vision.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: If you click on the advanced chart, you have the pre-market data as well, so we can probably transfer that over to the other chart.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: So we're looking pretty good, aren't we?
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: From yesterday's little sort of mini tumble there.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, looking very happy there with Tesla, and we'll have a look at through this when the market opens and we'll have a look at through this when the market opens.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: Mstr Looking to take out these Whoops.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: We went back to Amazon.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: What did I do?
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: It must be a shortcut or something Looking to take out these highs here at sort of what's that 180.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Take out the 180.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: I think we might be flying.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Greeks are not showing any values, paul.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: I think that's a pre-market thing.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Paul, I think wait, wait, wait, 18 minutes and it should be showing.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: But sometimes pre-market, we don't get the Greeks because there's no out-of-market trading.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, wait till the market opens.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: I think that's probably.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: Well, I get Greeks here.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Maybe just refresh your window, my friend, that might do the trick.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: See, I get Greeks.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: Greeks are all around us, they're everywhere I go.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: My golden retriever would like it if you hit the like button.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: Ah, well, then we have to, don't we?
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: My golden retriever would like it if you hit the like button.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Ah well, then we have to, don't we?
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: Nike?
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: You say.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: You say Nike, let me have a look, nike.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: It's a bit of a recovery, is it enough?
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: Let me draw a little sort of doomy line here.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Can we get a line sort of what I was thinking?
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: So you know, you kind of need to break through.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, really you need to take out that high here again.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: But it's definitely on a nice recovery path there.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: It's just a question of whether it's maybe a little early to get in on this thing.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: That's obviously for you to decide.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: How do you feel about AMD?
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: You know, warm and fuzzy inside, as I do about all semiconductors.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: I don't really have feelings about stocks.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: I try not to.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: At least it's recovering quite nicely.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, you have a bit of this.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: You get a pen here again.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: You have a little bit of this sort of that kind of resistance zone right there.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: We're still kind of in it.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: So maybe break out above here, this high there that I'm sort of highlighting, and then we might be talking.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: But generally semiconductors are doing quite nicely, I think.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: What did we call a buy yesterday.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: Budweiser oh really, budweiser now identifies as a rallying stock.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: Apparently it is quite a nice breakout here about that.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: Still these two highs to take out, but yeah, I can see the point.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: What else have we got?
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Marvel, how marvelous, which, yeah, I can sort of see it, although I'd probably wait till we take out these highs.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: What else we got Anything that we care about here?
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: Metler Toledo Okay, I like that stock, but a bit random.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: Sox there we go.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: Sox is what it's all about, and that called a breakout here.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: So that's the semiconductor sector, right?
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: So when the sector rallies, it's kind of worth looking at who's in it and who within it is also rallying and then maybe find a really nice setup there.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: That's sort of typically what I do with stocks.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: So yeah, it looks pretty good.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: The only fly in the ointment is that we have resistance here at 265.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: So you might only see a $30 value.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: It's still 15%.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: It's better than a kick in the groin, isn't it?
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Paypal is indeed celebrating $80.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: $80.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: Who would have thought?
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, the beautiful thing is that's sort of an old chart theory the longer the sideways action, the steeper the breakout.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: That's generally the rule.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: So I have some high hopes here because we've really done absolutely bugger all for like two years.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: So I think we're about to be rewarded I hope, of course, not financial advice, just my particular view on this.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: So I think I kind of think 120 would be a reasonable price target but again, that's just my ambitious thinking there by which point our PayPal leaps would be making which would be make at 120, we would be making 200% gains, something like that, which is kind of what we're hoping for, maybe a little bit more.