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Trump Vows 200% Tariff on EU Wine, Escalating Trade Tensions · Bloomberg Intelligence

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Speaker 2: The news of the day that sort of wow the
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Speaker 2: market here is Trump is now vowing a two hundred
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Speaker 2: percent tariff on EU wine, escalating trade tensions.
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Speaker 3: Full disclosure.
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Speaker 2: I really like champagne, so I just want to, like,
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Speaker 2: I have I have a horse in this race.
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Speaker 4: Is it a champagne versus prosecco bias or you can
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Speaker 4: go either way.
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Speaker 3: I totally go either way.
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Speaker 5: Okay.
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Speaker 2: I usually go prosecco first because it's a little cheaper.
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Speaker 3: Okay, but I do love my champagne.
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Speaker 2: It's really champagne rose that's really high in.
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Speaker 5: Does any of this surprise you, pame taste? Yes, exactly
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Speaker 5: by discount?
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Speaker 3: I would good question.
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Speaker 2: I used to when I drank more, That's for sure.
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Speaker 3: All right.
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Speaker 2: Joining us now as Albertina Ursoli, a European Transport and
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Speaker 2: Industrials reporter, walk us through the reaction on the ground
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Speaker 2: when all of this unfolded this morning.
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Speaker 6: Look, it's been an intense ten days. It's about champagne,
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Speaker 6: it's about wine, it's about retaliatory retaliation measure us EU.
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Speaker 6: I covered the automotive industry, I've covered the drinks, champagne,
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Speaker 6: wine industry, Cognac. You forgot Cognac while you were talking
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Speaker 6: earlier on You know, it's a vicious circle here. Tariffs
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Speaker 6: announced retaliatory measures. I mean, we're still waiting to get
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Speaker 6: a clear sense from France because France here is clearly targeted.
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Speaker 6: And as soon as the president US president posted on
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Speaker 6: social media about the two hundred percent tariff on EU
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Speaker 6: wines and champagne, you know, you immediately saw a knee
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Speaker 6: jerk reaction in the market. Elvemash the owner of brands
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Speaker 6: such as Vito and You're, but also the group also
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Speaker 6: has a wine and spirits business. The shares declined the
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Speaker 6: same thing for cognac maker Remi Quantroux Compari. I'm sure
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Speaker 6: you're wellware with the name Campari, Dowd Campari, the company,
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Speaker 6: spirits maker Pernurrica. You know, these are big names. I mean,
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Speaker 6: it's interesting because the spirits industry has been the focus
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Speaker 6: of trade tensions before, they're never spared. What is a
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Speaker 6: bit newer here is uh, the attack I would say
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Speaker 6: on the auto's industry. The healthcare industry is wondering what's
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Speaker 6: going to happen to them, you know, it's it's quite intense.
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Speaker 6: And retailers as well, of course, also wondering what the
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Speaker 6: implications will be. So it's unlike previous trade tensions I
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Speaker 6: would say linked to tariffs, you know, the previous term
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Speaker 6: of Trump. I think that the scope here is much
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Speaker 6: bigger and really having widespread implications on various businesses and
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Speaker 6: of course on markets.
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Speaker 7: Well, I don't know about you.
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Speaker 4: I'm going to when I get home today, I'm going
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Speaker 4: to go over to the wine cellar and stock up
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Speaker 4: on my barberusco before they slap.
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Speaker 3: Oh right, that's your jam, that's my Jamnews drink.
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Speaker 5: There's an American alternative to cod rone, the French wine.
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Speaker 8: It's called goats do Rome.
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Speaker 4: That's actually awesome, Abertina, And I know you're based in
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Speaker 4: our Paris bureau. I'd love to get your sense of
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Speaker 4: kind of help people on the street are thinking about this.
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Speaker 4: For example, in Canada, people are up in arms about this.
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Speaker 4: You see it all across social media. This has gotten personal.
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Speaker 4: How are the folks in Europe thinking about this brewing
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Speaker 4: trade war here?
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Speaker 6: Look, I would say that in terms of the drinks,
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Speaker 6: it's a bit early days to know what's happening on
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Speaker 6: the street. But I can tell you that we've been
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Speaker 6: tracking the automobile industry very closely, and it's not only
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Speaker 6: linked to tariffs, but I'm sure that you've seen the
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Speaker 6: same in the US. In California in particular, there's a
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Speaker 6: lot of angst towards Tesla cars. Tesla you know, sales
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Speaker 6: and registrations have gone down in Europe in Paris and
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Speaker 6: France as well, and there's been attacks on Tesla car
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Speaker 6: is actually you know, put on fire or or destroyed
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Speaker 6: Tesla cars. So there are implications, you know. I don't
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Speaker 6: know if we will see larger impacts against US products.
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Speaker 6: I think it's a bit early for that. But I
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Speaker 6: can tell you that there's a lot of soul searching
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Speaker 6: going on at c suite level with CEOs who are
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Speaker 6: trying to plan around what, you know, how they can
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Speaker 6: go about exactly doing some planning for these tarrists. How
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Speaker 6: long will these tarifs last and will they really be
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Speaker 6: applied or not, because I think that the main sense,
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Speaker 6: but maybe among the public as well, was that during
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Speaker 6: Trump won there was a lot of talk but not
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Speaker 6: a lot of a lot of action. And I think
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Speaker 6: that even before Trump took off, as you know, there
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Speaker 6: was a sense that it was just a negotiating strategy
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Speaker 6: to you know, call for tariffs and threaten tariffs and
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Speaker 6: then not apply them. I mean, you know, two nights
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Speaker 6: ago we saw here in Europe the metal and aluminum
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Speaker 6: tariffs taking effect. So it's not only talk this time around.
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Speaker 6: And I think this still needs to sink in. And
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Speaker 6: of course then there is the observation of how our
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Speaker 6: markets reacting and this will this hold back Trump a
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Speaker 6: bit and his administration. But I think that there's more
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Speaker 6: question marks than answers today.
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Speaker 4: All right, Abertena, thank you so much. We really appreciate
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Speaker 4: aberteena Torsoli, European transport and industrials reporter for Bloomberg News,
5:47
Speaker 4: reporting in from our Paris studio.
5:49
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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
6:05
Speaker 2: Speaking of course, of my guests that I had at
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Speaker 2: it's Sarah Week. It's a global SMP Global Energy conference
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Speaker 2: in Houston, Texas, and I talk to a lot of
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Speaker 2: the power players. Now, if you're a data center, that's
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Speaker 2: who you're talking to. Are those power players?
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Speaker 4: Right?
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Speaker 2: There's a narrative on a couple different fronts. One is
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Speaker 2: that you have the hyperscalers that are very worried about
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Speaker 2: being too long power, that they spend too much money
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Speaker 2: buying power that they eventually don't need.
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Speaker 3: So there is a narrative that.
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Speaker 2: They're actually a little skittish on going out and getting
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Speaker 2: these deals.
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Speaker 3: The other narrative is that no they're not.
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Speaker 2: They're just getting them from certain companies that have already
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Speaker 2: executed on these kind of power arrangements, but nonetheless like
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Speaker 2: show me the money, like where are the deals, where
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Speaker 2: the checks being signed? How do they work out? Like
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Speaker 2: a Microsoft and Constellation Energy. So to this exact point,
6:47
Speaker 2: I was able to speak with Energy Energy CEO Larry Coben.
6:51
Speaker 2: He's been in this industry for decades and decades and decades.
6:54
Speaker 2: It's one of the stocks along with Constellation and Vistra
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Speaker 2: that moves like an AI stock because they're the ones
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Speaker 2: that power the environment. And I asked him first if
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Speaker 2: the rising power growth demand that we've seen is actually
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Speaker 2: been driven by this power.
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Speaker 3: Demand and AI no, I think it's a lot of things.
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Speaker 9: It's also on shoring of manufacturing. For example, here in Texas,
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Speaker 9: there's a one gig Samsung plant that's going to be
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Speaker 9: opened in a couple of years. It's the Internet of things,
7:20
Speaker 9: it's smart homes, people are just it's electric cars. People
7:24
Speaker 9: are just using more electricity in ways that they never
7:28
Speaker 9: did before. And as a result of that, that's part
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Speaker 9: of the demand cycle. Obviously, data centers are a big
7:33
Speaker 9: part of it, but data centers aside, all of the
7:36
Speaker 9: people who build data centers also are involved with cloud
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Speaker 9: and a whole slew of other services search that we
7:43
Speaker 9: don't think about because we've had them for so long,
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Speaker 9: but growth for those is increasing every.
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Speaker 5: Bit as much.
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Speaker 2: And you guys are one of the largest independent power
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Speaker 2: producers in the United States, right, so you can really
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Speaker 2: take advantage of this. Where is the biggest demand for
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Speaker 2: what kind of power? Give me some insights into the
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Speaker 2: conversations you're having right now.
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Speaker 5: Sure.
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Speaker 9: I think, you know, competitive markets, the two biggest ones
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Speaker 9: would be Texas and PJAM in the northeast. Texas is
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Speaker 9: a primary focus for us that we do have a
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Speaker 9: strong PJAM presence. One of the things we like about
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Speaker 9: Texas is it has a friendlier permitting environment and it
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Speaker 9: has one public Utilities Commission.
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Speaker 5: And one governor.
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Speaker 9: Urkatt has thirteen states in it plus the District of Columbia.
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Speaker 9: So that's fourteen commissions, fourteen governor like people, and furk
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Speaker 9: which doesn't have any jurisdiction here. So but I think
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Speaker 9: you're going to see data centers in all of these places,
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Speaker 9: and every and in other places where economic growth is
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Speaker 9: going on. It's not going to be limited, but I
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Speaker 9: think Texas is going to be first.
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Speaker 2: Do you think that the hyperscale or hype about how
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Speaker 2: much they're going to spend on power demand is real
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Speaker 2: fall short?
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Speaker 5: I think yes. I mean it won't fall It will
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Speaker 5: not fall short. It may even go up.
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Speaker 3: Okay.
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Speaker 9: And the reason I think that is, you know, it's
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Speaker 9: interesting after Deep Seek, every was super concerned about that,
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Speaker 9: and then three of the hyperscalers came out and essentially
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Speaker 9: doubled their capital commitments. Now if they actually, after looking
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Speaker 9: at deepseek, decide it's going to be twice as much,
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Speaker 9: then that gives me a great deal of comfort.
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Speaker 5: The power demand is going to be there.
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Speaker 9: And you know, I know everybody's talking about Gevins paradox
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Speaker 9: because everyone has now googled it for the first time.
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Speaker 9: I'm actually old enough to remember what it was originally.
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Speaker 9: But you know, I think people will start using this
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Speaker 9: more and more. I already see it. In our business,
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Speaker 9: we were using enormous amounts of AI and customer service
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Speaker 9: and we're only just scratching the surface.
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Speaker 2: Speaking of you're going to be developing five point four
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Speaker 2: gigawatts by twenty thirty two, right, how much of that
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Speaker 2: is going to be fully contracted and how much of
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Speaker 2: that will be more merchant spot price.
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Speaker 5: You know, we have.
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Speaker 9: One point five gigs that is shovel ready that will
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Speaker 9: probably go Most of that will go directly into the
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Speaker 9: Texas market. Okay, anything we build beyond that, I would
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Speaker 9: anticipate would be fully contracted for related either to a
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Speaker 9: data center or another kind.
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Speaker 5: Of large user along the way.
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Speaker 9: We are not in the business of taking merchant risks
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Speaker 9: some of the other folks are. We actually like to
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Speaker 9: protect our downside and give ourselves a lot of optionality
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Speaker 9: to the upside so that we don't have to care
10:16
Speaker 9: whether the growth is two percent or ten percent. Both
10:19
Speaker 9: of those are ginormous for us.
10:21
Speaker 2: So what kind of pricing are we talking about for
10:23
Speaker 2: a gas fire plant, for.
10:25
Speaker 3: Renewable for other power? Like, what does it look like
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Speaker 3: right now?
10:28
Speaker 9: I mean gas fired plants. We think there can be
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Speaker 9: done for fifteen hundred to two thousand a kW installed.
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Speaker 9: The ones that are shovel ready beuse we started on
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Speaker 9: them five years ago, will be much less.
10:39
Speaker 5: But if you're not in the.
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Speaker 9: Business actively doing it, you're going to have a hard
10:42
Speaker 9: time hitting the top end of the range. Renewable pricing
10:46
Speaker 9: hasn't changed dramatically. It's just that the load curve is
10:50
Speaker 9: changing as people need. There's more twenty four to seven
10:53
Speaker 9: power use coming in. And you know, sun doesn't shine
10:56
Speaker 9: at night, wind doesn't always blow.
10:58
Speaker 5: But renewable aren't dead.
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Speaker 9: They're going to be sure, yes, actually I am sure, okay,
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Speaker 9: because there's still a place for them when they're working
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Speaker 9: in conjunction with gas plants, I mean part of our portfolio.
11:13
Speaker 9: Now we actually shut off our fossil fuel plants during
11:17
Speaker 9: the day when there's a lot of salta in win
11:18
Speaker 9: in Texas. We buy from the grid their power and
11:21
Speaker 9: sell it to our customers, generating it ourselves. Those options
11:24
Speaker 9: are still going to be available, at least in competitive markets.
11:27
Speaker 2: Well, speaking of your renewable unit is thirty percent of
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Speaker 2: your annual earnings right and it's twenty percent of the
11:33
Speaker 2: renewable market share here in the US.
11:35
Speaker 3: How much do you think that can grow for you?
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Speaker 9: I are renewable. You know, we generally actually contract for
11:43
Speaker 9: renewables rather than own them. It's a strange thing because
11:46
Speaker 9: we own two coal plants. Everyone else gets cheaper renewable
11:49
Speaker 9: capital than we do, even though we're a big company
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Speaker 9: and quite good at this, and as a result, what
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Speaker 9: we generally do is contract for that power from other developers.
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Speaker 9: Right now, we've got two gigs and we're probably going
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Speaker 9: to have a solicitation for more going forward. So I
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Speaker 9: still see it as an integral part of our strategy,
12:07
Speaker 9: and a lot of them also will be driven by
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Speaker 9: what the customers want. So the end of the day,
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Speaker 9: we are in the customer service business, not the electricity business.
12:15
Speaker 9: So it's our job to sell you the kind of
12:18
Speaker 9: electrons that you want in terms of you know, time, place.
12:22
Speaker 5: And fuel and fuel generation. So if you.
12:25
Speaker 9: Want green electrons, decarbonized electrons, we will have them and
12:29
Speaker 9: we will sell them to you.
12:30
Speaker 3: Thank you.
12:32
Speaker 2: In terms of in terms of the actual agreements, how
12:37
Speaker 2: many agreements are you talking about? That's like, hey, we're
12:39
Speaker 2: going to sign like yeah, yeah, well we like your electricity,
12:42
Speaker 2: will sign in versus like firm demand.
12:45
Speaker 3: Here's your paycheck.
12:47
Speaker 5: You know we do this every day.
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Speaker 9: We actually supply power already to every one of the hyperscalers.
12:52
Speaker 9: We have the second largest commercial CNI electricity book in
12:56
Speaker 9: the country and the largest natural gas one. So we
12:58
Speaker 9: sign those kinds of arrange when some of them are
13:00
Speaker 9: short terms, some of them are long term. I think
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Speaker 9: the new data center ones will all be at least
13:06
Speaker 9: ten and probably closer to twenty years. ABA is we
13:09
Speaker 9: won't want to dedicate our site to something that's less
13:11
Speaker 9: than that. B. We won't want to build a dedicated
13:14
Speaker 9: power plant for less than that. And see, if you're
13:16
Speaker 9: going to pay all that money for those chips and
13:18
Speaker 9: to build a data center, which actually costs more than
13:21
Speaker 9: a power plant, you're going to want that kind of stability.
13:24
Speaker 5: For an extended period of time.
13:26
Speaker 9: So I think a lot of those are going to
13:28
Speaker 9: be fixed price deals off market with power scale. They
13:32
Speaker 9: will still be in front of the meter because people
13:34
Speaker 9: will want to be connected to the grid, but they
13:37
Speaker 9: will definitely be long term fixed contracts.
13:39
Speaker 3: How soon are you're signing more of those.
13:43
Speaker 9: Stay tuned pair question? You know, my next earning is
13:47
Speaker 9: call is may. It will not be then, okay, but
13:50
Speaker 9: you know we're working on these as fast as we
13:52
Speaker 9: possibly can. They're complicated. People, you know, think electricity is
13:56
Speaker 9: just like flicking a switch. It's super complicated. But we
14:00
Speaker 9: are making substantial progress towards some very interesting transactions. Talking
14:05
Speaker 9: both to hyper scalers and to developers were I let.
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Speaker 3: You go though. What makes it complicated? Is it the pricing?
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Speaker 3: Is it? How to structure the deal?
14:13
Speaker 2: Like? Is your power going to the grid and then
14:16
Speaker 2: selling back to the hyper scale?
14:17
Speaker 9: Like?
14:17
Speaker 3: What makes it so hard?
14:18
Speaker 9: You need interconnection agreement, you need a construction agreement, you
14:22
Speaker 9: need a turbine agreement. Now you know, we have all
14:25
Speaker 9: of these in place generically, but they all need to
14:28
Speaker 9: be site specific. You need to decide how big a
14:31
Speaker 9: data center you want to put on the site. How
14:34
Speaker 9: fast are you going to grow that data center? So
14:36
Speaker 9: are you going to start at two hundred megs and
14:38
Speaker 9: go up two hundred a year? Do you want to
14:39
Speaker 9: start at a gig? So what makes it complicated is
14:43
Speaker 9: putting all of those pieces together, and what people forget
14:46
Speaker 9: is actually for this type of data center is new,
14:49
Speaker 9: unlike existing data centers where people have done lots of them.
14:53
Speaker 9: There aren't a lot of AI data centers out there yet.
14:56
Speaker 9: But it's complicated, but so is general power plant developed
15:00
Speaker 9: and all the permitting and those things. So it's nothing
15:02
Speaker 9: that we're worried about. It's something we actually think we're
15:05
Speaker 9: pretty good at.
15:06
Speaker 2: Buth Sailors are willing to put down that money.
15:09
Speaker 3: You're showing up knocking on your door. They're there, They're there, Okay,
15:12
Speaker 3: they're there.
15:12
Speaker 9: We're there, and you know, because of the agreements we
15:15
Speaker 9: announced last week, the turbines and the contractors are there.
15:19
Speaker 2: That was Larry Coben Energy ce Energy Energy uh CEO.
15:25
Speaker 2: A big part of that though, too, is these guys
15:27
Speaker 2: are going to go through a big CAPEC cycle because
15:29
Speaker 2: of this. Right, So those how those agreements are structured,
15:32
Speaker 2: which I was trying to understand is very complicated but
15:35
Speaker 2: also necessary, so they have the visibility to then spend
15:38
Speaker 2: that CAPEX.
15:39
Speaker 3: So curious still owed to have what there's a really
15:42
Speaker 3: going to look like.
15:42
Speaker 4: Yeah, but I mean, just listening to me seems bullish
15:45
Speaker 4: and uh bullish on the state of Texas. Oh yeah, yeah,
15:47
Speaker 4: I just I learned something new that John Tucker and
15:50
Speaker 4: I we know that they have their own grid in Texas.
15:52
Speaker 4: They're not on part of any.
15:53
Speaker 2: Of the They read the grid, We read the grid.
15:55
Speaker 4: Yeah, but that exempts him from a lot of furk oversight.
15:59
Speaker 4: Federal Energy, your regulatory commission. That's good for doing business.
16:02
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, why didn't they all go there?
16:04
Speaker 4: Yeah, energy Energy, I'm looking at it.
16:06
Speaker 8: Here's good stock.
16:07
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's done pretty well.
16:10
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
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16:24
Speaker 2: Wrapping up all my interviews at Sarah Week again. That
16:27
Speaker 2: is SMP Globals Energy Conference. It's once a year. It's
16:31
Speaker 2: in Houston, Texas. All the energy industry players and CEOs come,
16:35
Speaker 2: they talk, they schmooz, they meet a shareholders, maybe they
16:37
Speaker 2: make deals, they talk behind closed doors. And obviously in
16:40
Speaker 2: the middle of all of this, we're getting tariff headlines
16:43
Speaker 2: right and left. So I was able to sit down
16:45
Speaker 2: and speak with Greg Abel. He is CEO of Enbridge Energy.
16:49
Speaker 2: It's a Canadian midstream oil and gas company. I say Canadian,
16:53
Speaker 2: but it's maybe North America. They have pipelines that range
16:56
Speaker 2: from oil, natural gas, energy transport all across the US
17:00
Speaker 2: and Canada. So he's a really good read on all
17:03
Speaker 2: of this.
17:04
Speaker 3: I asked him straight up.
17:05
Speaker 2: I was like, how hard is your life right now?
17:08
Speaker 7: Well, forty three states, eight provinces, five countries, it's just
17:12
Speaker 7: another day, another day.
17:14
Speaker 8: You've got to focus on fundamentals. What do we know.
17:17
Speaker 7: Energy's going to flow, has to flow. It's the lifeblood
17:19
Speaker 7: of everybody's economy. Consumers want cheap prices. That means provide
17:24
Speaker 7: as much supply as economically possible and try to stay
17:28
Speaker 7: out of the way of policy and politicians in the
17:31
Speaker 7: short term and focus on the long term.
17:33
Speaker 8: And so we're continuing to do that. We've got twenty.
17:35
Speaker 7: Seven billion dollars projects that we're going to execute through
17:38
Speaker 7: twenty twenty.
17:39
Speaker 2: Seven, and any of that question marked on hold, put
17:43
Speaker 2: on the sidelines on pause because of the turmoil in
17:47
Speaker 2: the market and because of the headlines on tariffs.
17:49
Speaker 7: No, and here's why, Well, they're already signed up contracts.
17:52
Speaker 7: People need that energy. It takes multiple years to build
17:55
Speaker 7: that infrastructure. Most of the product that we need for
17:59
Speaker 7: those is are already in and i'll say steal for example,
18:03
Speaker 7: largely domestically produced in the United States. We're in Canada
18:06
Speaker 7: for projects there. So you do need think three or
18:09
Speaker 7: four steps ahead. But when you've been around better part
18:12
Speaker 7: of a century in your long term energy infrastructure.
18:15
Speaker 8: I'm paid to do that every day, and so are
18:17
Speaker 8: our people.
18:18
Speaker 2: But does that building and all that cappacks get more
18:20
Speaker 2: expensive if the material gets more expensive?
18:23
Speaker 7: It could, It could, so we have to be again,
18:25
Speaker 7: you try to lock that in as soon as possible.
18:27
Speaker 8: One of the benefits of running a large pipeline.
18:30
Speaker 7: System largely regulated economic regulation beyond just you can pass
18:34
Speaker 7: through some costs if they're reasonably so. Again, big buyer,
18:38
Speaker 7: as you said, largest pipeline operator in North America.
18:41
Speaker 8: We buy a lot of stuff, and I think we've.
18:43
Speaker 7: Got a certain amount of power to be able to
18:46
Speaker 7: get the best deals possible, and then from a competitive perspective,
18:50
Speaker 7: if some prices have to be passed through, fine, but
18:52
Speaker 7: generally speaking we lock those ino.
18:54
Speaker 3: Have you seen any change in oil flows as.
18:56
Speaker 7: Of yet, No, quite the contrary. So January February flows
19:00
Speaker 7: out of Canada have been.
19:02
Speaker 8: Close to record highs.
19:04
Speaker 7: We'll see if that continues, but I think people may
19:06
Speaker 7: be getting ahead of those exports under the Gulf Coast,
19:10
Speaker 7: where the largest exporter of oil out of the United States.
19:13
Speaker 7: That continues to be very robust as allies and customers
19:17
Speaker 7: overseas want to continue to get there. And it was
19:20
Speaker 7: a pretty coold winter, so natural gas was used predominantly
19:25
Speaker 7: to keep people warm and electricity going and industry flying.
19:28
Speaker 8: So starts of the year has been pretty good.
19:31
Speaker 2: If we do see continued tariffs on Canadian oil, do
19:35
Speaker 2: you think the price then discounts and then producers responding
19:39
Speaker 2: kind So our.
19:40
Speaker 8: Pipeline is exactly built for that.
19:41
Speaker 7: So it's been a long time been a discount in Canada, right,
19:44
Speaker 7: Lots of production trying to get down to lots of
19:47
Speaker 7: demand here in the United States. So the more we
19:49
Speaker 7: can build pipelines, the less they're are discounts, but we'll
19:52
Speaker 7: have to see how the shakes out. It's early days.
19:54
Speaker 7: I keep saying everybody needs to take a breath. Everybody
19:57
Speaker 7: needs to be focused on the long term and recall
20:00
Speaker 7: that our people, our economy, the two countries need each
20:04
Speaker 7: other and they need Amergy.
20:05
Speaker 2: No, we're media, we want answers now. But what it
20:07
Speaker 2: does seem to highlight though, is Canada's need for other
20:10
Speaker 2: export partners and I'm wondering what the stomach is to
20:14
Speaker 2: build up pipelines to Western Canada.
20:16
Speaker 7: I'm consciously hopeful, and didn't say optimistic, but hopeful for
20:19
Speaker 7: several reasons. One, it's going to be a change in
20:21
Speaker 7: government in Canada, and one way or the other is
20:24
Speaker 7: going to be a new prime minister here in the
20:26
Speaker 7: next little while.
20:27
Speaker 8: Maybe two we'll have to see.
20:28
Speaker 7: I'm not the politician here, and I think Canadians are
20:33
Speaker 7: united that you know, it's a challenge to be so
20:36
Speaker 7: tied to a single economy, even if it is the
20:39
Speaker 7: best economy in the world, And therefore there's opportunities to
20:42
Speaker 7: move off. At least the West coast and maybe the
20:44
Speaker 7: East coast. Canada did have an opportunity ten years ago
20:48
Speaker 7: to be the leader in llenship and tripped over itself
20:52
Speaker 7: not to be able to get there. I think many
20:54
Speaker 7: Canadians probably regret that. I hope policymakers reget that. But
20:57
Speaker 7: you know, we make a mistake once wille you don't
20:59
Speaker 7: make it, and that will create an opportunity and still
21:02
Speaker 7: will be the largest provider of oil and natural guess United.
21:05
Speaker 2: States tooken Things floated like maybe the government could tax
21:09
Speaker 2: exports and that would then pay for a pipeline, particularly
21:12
Speaker 2: maybe from east to west that the government could just
21:15
Speaker 2: help pay for these kind of pipelines. Is that, as
21:17
Speaker 2: I said, all from where you are, Yeah, I.
21:19
Speaker 8: Don't think that's That's not a logical way to go, right.
21:22
Speaker 7: I mean, the government had to step into a pipeline
21:24
Speaker 7: and one that does go to the West coast ended
21:26
Speaker 7: up being a multiple of what it would have cost
21:29
Speaker 7: in the private sector one and then two, you would
21:31
Speaker 7: really be asking for a real burden to be placed
21:34
Speaker 7: on Western Canada as the largest producer of almost the
21:38
Speaker 7: sole producer of oil out of Canada. I don't think
21:41
Speaker 7: a Canadian politician that's thinking about national unity would want
21:45
Speaker 7: to impose one tariff on one part of the country
21:49
Speaker 7: this to benefit another productice.
21:51
Speaker 2: So what would incite the private sector to want to
21:53
Speaker 2: do something like that.
21:54
Speaker 7: Well, new permitting rules, just like here in the United States.
21:57
Speaker 7: In Canada, which is worse? Well, they're both challe I
22:00
Speaker 7: don't know which is worse. I think momentum is towards
22:04
Speaker 7: regulatory simplicity here in the United States, and I hope
22:07
Speaker 7: we get the same in Canada. And I have to
22:09
Speaker 7: make decisions every day. Am I investing in Cana in
22:11
Speaker 7: the United States? So permitting is a big issue. Speed
22:14
Speaker 7: of permitting is a big issue, support for proper taxation regimes,
22:20
Speaker 7: et cetera. Those are all decisions I have to make.
22:22
Speaker 7: Both capital markets are excellent, but I would say the
22:26
Speaker 7: permitting and regulatory regime is quite problematic in Canada.
22:31
Speaker 2: The other sort of non related tear of demand driver
22:35
Speaker 2: potentially is AI and data centers.
22:37
Speaker 3: Right, how do you play in.
22:39
Speaker 8: That multiple ways?
22:40
Speaker 7: So we again, being such a large producer or large
22:44
Speaker 7: shipper of natural gas, probably the best way in which
22:47
Speaker 7: those data centers will be fueled is natural gas fire generation.
22:51
Speaker 7: So we are building pipelines now for great companies like
22:54
Speaker 7: Duke Tva, et cetera. Here in the United States, and
22:58
Speaker 7: those will be for new go out plus power plants.
23:01
Speaker 7: Some of those electrons are quite certain will go to
23:04
Speaker 7: meet this demand.
23:05
Speaker 8: On the air front, we serve.
23:07
Speaker 7: Ninety percent of the gas fire generations, saying a province
23:09
Speaker 7: like them Ontario, they're trying to track more and more AI.
23:13
Speaker 8: So we will build the infrastructure.
23:16
Speaker 7: The storage, the transportation, et cetera to fuel those plants,
23:19
Speaker 7: which will then allow the data centers to be connected.
23:23
Speaker 7: Something like you know, the vast majority of data centers
23:29
Speaker 7: are being within fifty miles of our pipeline. That's a
23:32
Speaker 7: pretty attractive right across North America for us to be
23:35
Speaker 7: able to utilize.
23:36
Speaker 8: So I'm excited about that.
23:37
Speaker 7: I mean a lot to see how it all shakes out. Yeah,
23:39
Speaker 7: but you know, steady growth, and we also have a
23:42
Speaker 7: renewable power business, and some of those data centers want
23:45
Speaker 7: to use renewable power. So we've signed up new customers
23:47
Speaker 7: like Amazon and Meta and Toyota and Pepsi.
23:52
Speaker 8: So you'll see a lot of those players that are
23:54
Speaker 8: looking for power. We're going to need all of that.
23:57
Speaker 2: What was elected to have those conversations with like Toyota
24:00
Speaker 2: and Amazon, Like what did it contract a long power
24:03
Speaker 2: purchase agreement and what was that like to come to
24:05
Speaker 2: a price?
24:06
Speaker 7: So the price is largely set by natural gas, even
24:09
Speaker 7: if you're buying renewables. Right, So the price is out there,
24:11
Speaker 7: and then you're trying to create a little bit of
24:13
Speaker 7: an escalator.
24:14
Speaker 8: They see the.
24:15
Speaker 7: Need for Stable six nine's reliability power, but they also
24:19
Speaker 7: want to meet some of their sustainability.
24:21
Speaker 3: Goals right now in a different environment.
24:23
Speaker 7: Absolutely that means they will get a mix of gas
24:25
Speaker 7: and they will get a mix of renewables as well.
24:28
Speaker 8: Right, So we need it all.
24:30
Speaker 7: I think that's probably the message that comes out North
24:32
Speaker 7: America to be fortress America, North America to be energy superiority.
24:37
Speaker 8: We're going to need it all. We're gonna need all
24:39
Speaker 8: the We're gonna need all the gas.
24:40
Speaker 7: We need cooperation in any permitting reform, and that first
24:44
Speaker 7: and foremost is going to sue the consumer. Consumers are voters,
24:47
Speaker 7: and I think that wins before I let you go.
24:50
Speaker 2: There's obviously a lot of concern about recession. It fears
24:53
Speaker 2: among terror fears, et cetera. Are you not seeing any
24:56
Speaker 2: slowdown in demand?
24:57
Speaker 7: So I am starting to see some impacts VSV housing.
25:02
Speaker 7: You know, what's going to happen with interest rates, with sessions,
25:05
Speaker 7: et cetera. If you're not quite certain about being able
25:08
Speaker 7: to afford a house or your job, et cetera, then
25:11
Speaker 7: you know, as many houses as we might need, they're
25:13
Speaker 7: maybe not getting built.
25:14
Speaker 8: But that's about it today.
25:16
Speaker 7: I mean, I think we have to realize there's been
25:18
Speaker 7: a lot of talk of tariffs yet, but we've yet
25:20
Speaker 7: seen a month or two of tariffs. I think when
25:23
Speaker 7: that kicks in, you may see some impacts, which is.
25:26
Speaker 8: The benefit of our model.
25:27
Speaker 7: Our model largely irregulated, steady as she goes dividend pair
25:31
Speaker 7: we've increased the dividend for thirty years in a row
25:34
Speaker 7: and then financial guidance for nineteen years in a row. Recessions,
25:38
Speaker 7: no recessions one type of government or another. So yeah,
25:41
Speaker 7: we often see the stuff first, but fortunately the structures
25:44
Speaker 7: we have still a low.
25:45
Speaker 8: Is to perform.
25:47
Speaker 2: That was greg able. He is entered Enbridge CEO, joining
25:50
Speaker 2: me from Sarah Week. So clearly all the CEOs are
25:53
Speaker 2: going to say how they're well insulated, they have the
25:56
Speaker 2: right structure for any kind of economic downturn, YadA, YadA.
25:59
Speaker 2: But the point is is that if you move stuff
26:01
Speaker 2: between Canada and the US, and that relationship is fractured,
26:06
Speaker 2: and even if it's not permanent, it feels like the
26:10
Speaker 2: move towards hey, guys, we need to find different export
26:12
Speaker 2: market wouldn't be insane at this point.
26:14
Speaker 4: No, it wouldn't, you know, he said, just it's amazing
26:17
Speaker 4: how you know how they're where they're located. Forty eight states,
26:20
Speaker 4: ten provinces, five countries, So I mean they are exposed
26:25
Speaker 4: in a big way, especially them with their stock. It's
26:26
Speaker 4: kind of flat year to date, but it's up twenty
26:28
Speaker 4: five percent on a trailing twelve month basis, as are
26:31
Speaker 4: a lot of those midstream stocks all performing pretty well.
26:35
Speaker 3: Yep.
26:35
Speaker 2: Because you need it, you got to move it. And
26:37
Speaker 2: at the end of the day, like you can have
26:38
Speaker 2: all the power that you want, all the commodities you want,
26:41
Speaker 2: you can't move. It doesn't matter. And that's where these
26:43
Speaker 2: guys come into play.
26:45
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