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Cliff Notes: Are We Dodging a Recession, or Already in One? · Earn Your Leisure

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: are here illegally, your next you will be fined nearly
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: never return. But if you register using our CBP home
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: border and families will be protected.
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland.
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: Security, interest rates hit the highest level in twenty two years.
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: My lord, what does this mean for us as consumers?
• 1:11
  Speaker 4: Unfortunately, the prices of everything is going to go up.
• 1:14
  Speaker 4: We'll talk about the real estate pending bubble that we
• 1:18
  Speaker 4: have with real estate rental prices being so high. But
• 1:22
  Speaker 4: for those of us who are old enough to remember,
• 1:24
  Speaker 4: this may not be the end. I remember a time
• 1:26
  Speaker 4: when if you had like a five to eighty credit score,
• 1:28
  Speaker 4: if you paid for a mortgage, your interest rates could
• 1:32
  Speaker 4: be twelve or eleven percent.
• 1:33
  Speaker 5: I hope that we don't go that high.
• 1:36
  Speaker 4: De Fed's been pretty clear in their plan for the
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: last year and a half about what they want to do,
• 1:41
  Speaker 4: But I'm seeing people are starting to get a little
• 1:44
  Speaker 4: bit worried. We talked about it before, the average payment
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: of seven ninety for a new car. The rental market
• 1:50
  Speaker 4: is going up, mortgages are going up. Everything is just
• 1:53
  Speaker 4: going to cost more. So we have to be a
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: lot more effective in our planning and our spending as
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: interest rates go up.
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 2:01
  Speaker 6: So, I mean for consumers, like you just said, Carl,
• 2:03
  Speaker 6: loans are going to cost more, credit cards are going
• 2:06
  Speaker 6: to the debt's going to be the interest rates are
• 2:08
  Speaker 6: going to be higher, and mortgage rates are going to
• 2:10
  Speaker 6: be higher. That's what it means, right straight up. That's
• 2:13
  Speaker 6: what this means with the interest rates being raised. But
• 2:16
  Speaker 6: on the other side, well, there's another thing.
• 2:18
  Speaker 5: That it means.
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: It means that we're further away.
• 2:20
  Speaker 6: From two percent, which is what betcha Pale has been saying,
• 2:23
  Speaker 6: like they want to get back to two percent. But
• 2:25
  Speaker 6: as we keep raising and keep raising and hopefully they
• 2:28
  Speaker 6: think like this will be there'll be a pause in September,
• 2:31
  Speaker 6: if not maybe a quarter, and then it's going to
• 2:33
  Speaker 6: be depending on the economic data, which is shown that
• 2:36
  Speaker 6: it may stop. We'll get to five and a half
• 2:38
  Speaker 6: percent and it'll stop there, which is further. But on
• 2:43
  Speaker 6: the bright side, if there is one, does that mean,
• 2:46
  Speaker 6: and I outpose this question, does that mean where recession
• 2:50
  Speaker 6: is off the table? Because that's what you know that
• 2:52
  Speaker 6: that's the other part of this. Right at the interest
• 2:54
  Speaker 6: rates get higher. Economic data is showing that, you know what,
• 2:57
  Speaker 6: there might be a chance for a soft lending and
• 2:59
  Speaker 6: maybe we don't go into a.
• 3:00
  Speaker 7: Recession which could cause.
• 3:03
  Speaker 5: A catastrophic event.
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: I think they already know that a recession is not
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: going to happen this year, so most economic analysts are
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: in agreement that we probably will not see a recession.
• 3:20
  Speaker 6: So then where when we talked about this in February,
• 3:23
  Speaker 6: when we're saying, all right, by definition, this should be
• 3:26
  Speaker 6: right two negative quarter does equal our recession? Did we
• 3:30
  Speaker 6: have to now change what definition is for a recession
• 3:33
  Speaker 6: right because they didn't really feel like one, because this
• 3:35
  Speaker 6: might have been the bullish recession we've ever seen.
• 3:38
  Speaker 5: I think they changed it to fifth the narrative that
• 3:40
  Speaker 5: was good at the time.
• 3:41
  Speaker 4: So like if a triple double is nine points nine
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: rebounds and nine steals, Jason Kidd may have the all
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: time record, Like, I think they adjusted it for what
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: was convenient for them to prevent panic.
• 3:52
  Speaker 5: I don't think we should change the definition.
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: I think this would be like the Balco era of investing,
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: where it's like, hey, this one just didn't count, which
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: is interesting in the self and his interest rates go up,
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: its slows down spending for a lot of people. If
• 4:07
  Speaker 4: you ask anyone as we're out and about, I don't
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: think people feel more confident in the financial situation more
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: so now than they did two years ago. So I
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: don't know how they keep saying that the economy is
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: in such a great place when interest is going up,
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: like even like, for let's say, if you can rent
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: a full bedroom in New York, what's the cost to
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: rent that in New York now?
• 4:26
  Speaker 5: Eight thousand dollars.
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: But you know what's so crazy is like going back
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: to the eye test and I was talking to more,
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: shout out to more and we were just having a
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: conversation from yeah from Royal and Ma shou out Tom
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: money bags in chat and we were talking and I
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: was a comedy bas no recession for him.
• 4:46
  Speaker 7: It's a fact. A few different people about.
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: The luxury apartment buildings in New York if interesting dynamic
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: was happening here, these luxury apartment buildings in New York.
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: And I've seen it happen in Atlanta as well, where
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: they're starting to look like.
• 5:06
  Speaker 5: Trap house boy.
• 5:11
  Speaker 7: Not even that.
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: It's just like you see a bunch of people just
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: in the lobby hanging out outside. A lot of dancers
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: are moving in, and I'm like.
• 5:19
  Speaker 5: Yo, ballerinas, Yeahsion is it?
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: Because yesterday I'm like, what are you like? Yo, it's
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: a lot of money out here, Okay, people getting money?
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: This is this is this is what I'm getting too.
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: Because I'm like, they can't be that many because they
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: have different programs to get people in. But I'm like,
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: everybody here can't be on the program, So how is
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: every how is these And it's not just one building.
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: There's a trend that's happening. And he was like, Yo,
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: it's a lot of money out here.
• 5:46
  Speaker 6: So that's what I'm getting too, right, Like, if we
• 5:49
  Speaker 6: look at consumer spending, it's pretty strong. So at some
• 5:52
  Speaker 6: point when is it not going to be strong? And
• 5:55
  Speaker 6: as far as like from an enterprise side, like, at
• 5:58
  Speaker 6: some point even when we look at some of these
• 6:00
  Speaker 6: earnings and we expected growth to slow down, right, we
• 6:04
  Speaker 6: expected revenue to be cut back, especially in the second
• 6:07
  Speaker 6: half of this year, but when we looked at the
• 6:09
  Speaker 6: rapporting from the second quarter, we're not seeing that. So
• 6:13
  Speaker 6: at what point where we see the effects of the
• 6:15
  Speaker 6: interest rates being raised? Is it the second half of
• 6:18
  Speaker 6: twenty twenty four, is it twenty twenty five's first quarter? Like,
• 6:21
  Speaker 6: at some point when will we see the effects? Because
• 6:23
  Speaker 6: I mean, you raise interest rates, it's going to take
• 6:25
  Speaker 6: time for it to kick in. But like to Shotty's point,
• 6:28
  Speaker 6: people are still spending and this isn't like PPP anymore,
• 6:32
  Speaker 6: Like this is something different.
• 6:34
  Speaker 5: Yeah, let me run off two stats real quick.
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: Yet of people in the US with equity has uh
• 6:41
  Speaker 4: the equities were worth less than it was two years
• 6:44
  Speaker 4: ago pre pandemic it was twenty seven percent and eighty
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: three point five percent of people ages twenty five to
• 6:49
  Speaker 4: fifty four are looking for work, which is two point
• 6:52
  Speaker 4: two million more than COVID. The truth is like it'll
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: start to be shown after whoever wins the next election.
• 7:00
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• 8:52
  Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from El Salvador
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas. Man of Venezuelan charged with
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy Noman, the United States
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: are here illegally your next you will be fined nearly
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: never return. But if you register using our CBP home
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: border and families will be protected.
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security.
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: There's a lot of fear that if this is announced
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: before the next election, that Biden will be thrown out
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: of office. And I can totally understand why the Republicans
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: don't want Trump to get back in the Republican parties
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: and shambles and who they want to lead. The Santus
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: is having trouble. They don't want to back RFK, they
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: don't want Trump. The Democrats are stuck with Biden and
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: Hunter having fun in the white out White House office.
• 10:22
  Speaker 4: So it's a shit show across the political landscape in
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: terms of like the presidential race. But I think after
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: the new president is announced, then we'll start to see
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: what the real data is and how things are really going.
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: And yes, actually that stripper indicator for the ratio of
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: strippers that buy homes and properties is an actual index
• 10:42
  Speaker 4: to look at.
• 10:45
  Speaker 5: It really is.
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: So I know it's a lot of people get money,
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: but it's a lot of people who are out here hurting,
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: and I don't think that they're telling a real story
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: about the economy of what's going on. And I think
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: after the election the truth will start to come out slowly,
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: but surely.
• 11:00
  Speaker 6: I mean, well, inflation numbers have gone down, right, I
• 11:03
  Speaker 6: mean when what you're speaking to the unemployment rate, from
• 11:05
  Speaker 6: what we've seen, it's been pretty low, certain portant, So
• 11:09
  Speaker 6: I mean it's kind of consistent, right If they're saying
• 11:12
  Speaker 6: like the first quarter of twenty twenty five, then that
• 11:14
  Speaker 6: would be after the presidential cycle, right, because the president
• 11:16
  Speaker 6: will be elected in twenty four of November. They don't
• 11:19
  Speaker 6: go into office in twenty five, So maybe that is
• 11:21
  Speaker 6: consistent and we will see that, right, because who wants
• 11:23
  Speaker 6: to have that on their tenure, on their resume, there
• 11:27
  Speaker 6: was a recession during your term, right, especially if you're
• 11:29
  Speaker 6: trying to be re elected, that definitely is not going
• 11:31
  Speaker 6: to help shany.
• 11:34
  Speaker 5: It's the point I know you want to bring upside.
• 11:36
  Speaker 5: Don't want this to be left out.
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I feel like, you know, it's a few
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: different things that's happening. It's interesting because, yeah, there are
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: people that are struggling, but the economy.
• 11:45
  Speaker 7: Itself is still healthy.
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: The stock market is booming, and you said, unemployment is
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: down reasonably, inflation has come down, the housing market is
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: still high. You know, it kind of slumped a little bit,
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: but it's it hasn't fallen off a cliff, and it
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: still places like Miami where it's just going crazy. Miami
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: is at a point I don't know how it can
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: Like Miami is at a point now where it's unstoppable,
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: and the way that they're developing, it's gonna look like
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: it's gonna look like Manhattan in five years. Like the
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: development that's happening in Miami and the money that's flowing
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: into Miami right now is unbelievable. And it's still places
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: like New York where real estate is still high, and
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: rents are still high, and people are still living in
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: Drake set up a whole residency in New York. I've
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: never really seen anything like they. Was in New York
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: for two weeks doing six shows. He sold out mass regard.
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: I don't know why he just didn't do arenas.
• 12:37
  Speaker 5: Well. He did four in Barklady, three in the Garden.
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: But that's what I'm saying, like that's unprecedented. Like he
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: set up shop in New.
• 12:43
  Speaker 6: York to do Harry Styles the fifteen in a row.
• 12:48
  Speaker 7: Those tickets are not cheap. They're not They are not
• 12:50
  Speaker 7: twelve hundred dollars.
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: Two thousand, and he's selling out every single night. So
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: there's different things that's happening with this economy where I
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: don't think that it's to the point where you know,
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: it is extremely.
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: Bad that they did it.
• 13:08
  Speaker 6: Interested in report on that, and this is why I
• 13:11
  Speaker 6: had to talk about Live Nation, because they were looking
• 13:14
  Speaker 6: at that the economic impact that some of these these
• 13:17
  Speaker 6: tours are having it on these cities and the economy
• 13:20
  Speaker 6: in general. Right when you got to tell Swift, who's
• 13:22
  Speaker 6: doing her world tour and it's in the United States
• 13:24
  Speaker 6: and it's boost the economy of each city that she's in.
• 13:27
  Speaker 5: Beyonce's doing the world tour.
• 13:28
  Speaker 6: Now she's in America doing it, and she's boost the
• 13:31
  Speaker 6: economy right from a travel standpoint, from a hospitality standpoint,
• 13:34
  Speaker 6: and from the revenue that's being in brought into the
• 13:37
  Speaker 6: arenas or these stadiums that they because they I shouldn't
• 13:39
  Speaker 6: say arenas, they're doing stadium tours and attaches that are
• 13:42
  Speaker 6: so these things are helping as well. I talked about
• 13:45
  Speaker 6: the weekend before about what he's doing, and you just
• 13:47
  Speaker 6: mentioned Drake, So like all these tours happening, they're helping
• 13:51
  Speaker 6: from a certain standpoint.
• 13:52
  Speaker 5: I know it's a small piece.
• 13:53
  Speaker 6: I think they brought in like five billion dollars over
• 13:55
  Speaker 6: the course of the end of June and July, which is.
• 13:59
  Speaker 5: A large amount.
• 14:00
  Speaker 6: But to the economy which is like over was it
• 14:03
  Speaker 6: seventy trillion? It plays a part in it. It plays
• 14:07
  Speaker 6: his part in it. It definitely does. And I think
• 14:09
  Speaker 6: I gotta give Jill credit.
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: He said to that in a couple of years that
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: a going to concerts will be like a super luxury item,
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: and we're getting there now, Like drink tickets are not cheap.
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: Taylor Swift isn't cheap. When we tried to go to
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: that Harry Styles concert last year, I think the tickets
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: was twenty five hundred and couldn't get tickets who sold out.
• 14:29
  Speaker 5: Every date possible to be able to go.
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: So I think those that are doing well are continuing
• 14:35
  Speaker 4: to do well.
• 14:37
  Speaker 5: But those who are not doing well and.
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: Those that have been lost the last four or five years,
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: I think this gap and the disparity is becoming so
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: wide that it's going to.
• 14:46
  Speaker 5: Be hard to make up for it in a few years.
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: That's my concern. Yes, of course, there's always going to
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: be people who make money. They're going to be high earners.
• 14:54
  Speaker 4: It's that eighty to twenty rule, like twenty percent of
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: the people are going to make an.
• 14:58
  Speaker 5: Exordinant amount of money. Is not.
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: But I'm worried about that gap being so wide with
• 15:04
  Speaker 4: the rise and rate even here in Houston, Like there's
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: a lot of people who moved to Houston because it
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: was considered affordable, and now a lot of them are
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: also being priced out. So I think the gap is
• 15:14
  Speaker 4: a story that isn't being told. And every company seems
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: to be adjusting to going the luxury route or premium
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: pricing which I've always been pro. But the lower end
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: companies I was reading an article earlier. Amazon and Walmart
• 15:27
  Speaker 4: are now expounding, excuse me, expanding to India as well,
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: following the footsteps of Apple. Zanna say said, congressing your win.
• 15:36
  Speaker 4: So I think India's economy is raising up and it's
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: filling in that middle class gap that we lost, and
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: we're really a luxury good, luxury service kind of market now,
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: and it's going to be bad for a lot of people.
• 15:50
  Speaker 7: All right, we'll mind to the situation.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member Romel Salvador accused
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with filming
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just some
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President Donald J.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States Secretary of
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border crossings are
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over one hundred
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: thousand illegal aliens.
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: Have been arrested.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: If you are here illegally, your next you will be fine.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: Nearly one thousand dollars a day. Imprisoned and deported, you
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: will never return. But if you register using our CBP
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: home app and leave now, you could be allowed to
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: return legally. Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: America's laws, border and families will be protected.
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security,