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Tech Resilience Amidst the Inflation Trap · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning , fellow chartwatchers and market enthusiasts !
• 0:04
  I am your host , Sunny Sideup , and you are listening to Spy Trader .
• 0:08
  It is a crisp 6 am here in the Pacific time zone on Sunday , May 3rd , 2026 .
• 0:15
  While most of the world is still tucked in bed dreaming of their weekend plans , we are here getting a head start on what promises to be a very highstakes week on Wall Street .
• 0:24
  We are looking at a market that is currently living in two different worlds .
• 0:29
  On one hand , the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq100 both closed at alltime highs last week .
• 0:36
  On the other hand , we have some serious friction in the background .
• 0:40
  We are calling this a period of macrodivergence .
• 0:43
  It sounds fancy , but it really just means that while the big tech names are doing great , the broader economy and the bond market are feeling some real pressure .
• 0:53
  Let us dive into the big news items you need to know for the week of May 4th through the 10th .
• 0:58
  First up is the WarInflation Trap .
• 1:01
  Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are keeping energy prices very high , with crude oil trading above one hundred and two dollars a barrel .
• 1:10
  This pushed our March inflation numbers up to three point three percent , which is a twoyear high .
• 1:16
  Because of this , the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates stuck between three point five and three point seven five percent .
• 1:24
  This has been really tough on the iShares 20 plus Year Treasury Bond ETF , also known as TLT , which continues to slide as investors realize that rate cuts are not coming anytime soon .
• 1:37
  The biggest event on the calendar is this Friday , May 8th .
• 1:41
  We are waiting on the April Jobs Report .
• 1:43
  Economists are forecasting only seventythree thousand new jobs , which is a massive drop from the one hundred and seventyeight thousand we saw in March .
• 1:53
  If that number comes in too low , people might start whispering the word recession , but if it is just low enough , the stock market might actually like it because it could force the Fed to eventually lower rates .
• 2:05
  We are also keeping a close eye on the services sector with the PMI data coming out Tuesday .
• 2:11
  Now , for some analysis on what is actually moving the needle .
• 2:16
  The tech sector is essentially carrying the entire market right now .
• 2:21
  Apple really saved the day on May 1st with a massive earnings beat and a mindblowing one hundred billion dollar share buyback program .
• 2:29
  That buyback basically acts as a safety net for the whole Nasdaq .
• 2:33
  However , we are starting to see some cracks in other places .
• 2:37
  Consumers are getting tired of high prices , so we are watching McDonald's and Disney very closely this week .
• 2:44
  Their earnings will tell us if families are still willing to spend on Big Macs and theme park tickets .
• 2:50
  We also have some big AI players reporting .
• 2:54
  Palantir reports on Monday , and then on Tuesday , we have AMD and Super Micro Computer .
• 3:00
  These are highvolatility events that will show us if the AI boom still has legs .
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  So , what is the game plan for your portfolio ?
• 3:08
  For a core allocation , I am looking at the Invesco QQQ Trust .
• 3:12
  Big tech companies have balance sheets so strong they are basically like minigovernments , making them a safe haven when the rest of the market feels shaky .
• 3:22
  Apple , specifically at that two hundred and eighty dollar level , is a core pillar of this strategy .
• 3:28
  To protect yourself from inflation and geopolitical trouble , consider a hedge in the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund , or XLE .
• 3:37
  With oil over a hundred dollars , energy stocks are a natural place to hide .
• 3:42
  If you want to get a bit more tactical , keep an eye on Palantir or AMD .
• 3:48
  If they give strong guidance this week , they could jump significantly as investors look for growth that does not depend on interest rate cuts .
• 3:57
  On the flip side , I would be very careful with bonds .
• 4:00
  I recommend staying underweight on the TLT ETF for now .
• 4:05
  Until inflation shows it is truly heading back down to that two percent target , longterm bonds are likely to stay under pressure .
• 4:14
  Overall , expect the S&P 500 to stay a bit bumpy but keep a generally positive bias early in the week .
• 4:22
  Things might get a little wild on Friday depending on that jobs report , so keep your seatbelts fastened .
• 4:28
  That is it for this early morning update .
• 4:31
  I am Sunny Sideup , and this has been Spy Trader .
• 4:34
  Let us go out there and make it a great week !