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Week 8 2026 College Football Picks for 15 More Games! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: 15 games from Friday night all the way to 9
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  Speaker 1: o'clock central on Saturday night. And we're doing it as
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  Speaker 1: the show that is now presented by PrizePix. So we're
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  Speaker 1: going to have some fun with that. Strap in and
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: let's get to it. Welcome in. This is Winning Cures Everything.
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  Speaker 1: It's a college football podcast now proudly presented by PrizePix.
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  Speaker 1: I'm your host, Gary Seegers, at GaryWCE on all the
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  Speaker 1: different socials. And to get things started off right, you
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: guys know what to do. Hit the subscribe button. Hit
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  Speaker 1: the like button. It's that little thing that looks like that.
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  Speaker 1: Make sure and jump in the comments with your favorite
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  Speaker 1: picks for this week's card. I want to know what
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  Speaker 1: you guys think. Tell me what the picks are. Because
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  Speaker 1: Lord knows I need it after the past two weeks.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, good gracious. Things have fallen off a cliff
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  Speaker 1: here lately. This is the next 15 show. The 15
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  Speaker 1: more show, if you will. This week we're going to
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  Speaker 1: do it a little different. We're going to do it
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  Speaker 1: in kickoff order. We're going to start on Friday night.
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  Speaker 1: Quick hits on every game. Any trend that's under 10 games,
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  Speaker 1: I'm going to call it small. 10 or 11 thin.
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  Speaker 1: Injuries are as of Monday. So make sure you check
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  Speaker 1: on Thursday before you just assume that somebody is out. Right?
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  Speaker 1: Now before we get to it, let me go ahead
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  Speaker 1: and pop this up. We'll go through the recap. Give
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  Speaker 1: you an idea. Here, we'll turn off that scroll for
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  Speaker 1: a second. My show picks went 11 and 21 last week. Now,
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  Speaker 1: of course... Let me go ahead and tell you. Subscribe
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: to youtube.com slash wcepix. The midweek games, Tuesday through Thursday,
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  Speaker 1: those are going to be over there. Individual games. All
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: of the individual game clips are going to be over there.
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  Speaker 1: So go ahead and hit subscribe and check out the
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: shows or the clips over there. But back to this.
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  Speaker 1: 11 and 21 last week. The model went 14 and 18.
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  Speaker 1: Dogs went 6 and 9 thus far on the season.
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  Speaker 1: 94 and 86 against the number for my picks. The
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  Speaker 1: model picks also 94 and 86. The underdog picks thus
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  Speaker 1: far 42 and 37. We got to do better, and
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  Speaker 1: we're going to start that this week. So let's jump
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  Speaker 1: to it. Friday night we start in the ACC. Duke
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  Speaker 1: at Virginia. Virginia a 1.5 point home favorite. Total of 47.5.
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  Speaker 1: This one 6 p.m. Central Time. God's time zone on ESPN.
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  Speaker 1: Duke is 4-2 coming off of a 24-20 loss to
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  Speaker 1: North Carolina last week. Virginia 4-3. They lost 23-13 at
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  Speaker 1: SMU last week. The market has spoken pretty loudly on
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  Speaker 1: this one. Virginia opened minus 6.5 and preseason is down
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  Speaker 1: to 1.5. That is 5 points towards Duke. Total has
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  Speaker 1: dropped six points. Six points, 53.5 to 47.5. It's gone
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  Speaker 1: up since Sunday. It was 46.5 on Sunday. The trend here,
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: excuse me, good gracious, Manny Diaz is 9-1-1 against the
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  Speaker 1: spread as a road dog under 14 points. Now, that's
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  Speaker 1: only 10 games, so kind of thin. The total is
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  Speaker 1: a wash, right? Diaz is 22-6 to the over off
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  Speaker 1: of an under. Tony Elliott is 7-20-2 to the over.
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  Speaker 1: So lots of unders. Both teams off of an under.
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  Speaker 1: Pick your poison. Trends are going in the opposite direction.
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  Speaker 1: My model, as far as the side, says Virginia minus 0.93.
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  Speaker 1: So it agrees with the move, you know, a little
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  Speaker 1: value on Duke. And about two points over. My stats
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  Speaker 1: projected total is 49.3. Power rating has Virginia minus 1.5. Duke,
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  Speaker 1: third in the country in net explosiveness. They only give
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  Speaker 1: up an explosive play 5% of the time. That's fifth
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  Speaker 1: in the country. So as far as explosiveness goes, that's
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  Speaker 1: what this team has. As far as success rate, it's
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  Speaker 1: not great. Number 69. So on a down-to-down basis, this
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  Speaker 1: team is not great. Number 94 in rushing success rate,
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  Speaker 1: but number 16 in rushing explosiveness. And that's Shepard, right?
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  Speaker 1: That's 100% Shepard. Um, Virginia's passing success rate is 125th.
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  Speaker 1: They convert in the red zone 74% of the time.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, look at this, 125th. However, number 26 in QBR,
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  Speaker 1: they only throw the ball about 42% of the time.
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  Speaker 1: Bo Pribula, known more as a runner, not great throwing
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  Speaker 1: the football, but, you know, they're still explosive. They're just
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  Speaker 1: not great throwing it, you know, when they do hit
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  Speaker 1: a pass, it's typically pretty deep because people are expecting
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  Speaker 1: a run. That's the way it goes. Virginia converts in
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  Speaker 1: the red zone 74% of the time. That is 125th.
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  Speaker 1: But they are number 34 in offensive red zone touchdown rate.
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  Speaker 1: So that's pretty good. Duke on the other side, defensive
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  Speaker 1: red zone touchdown rate number 93. So if Virginia gets
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  Speaker 1: down there, I would expect them to be able to score.
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  Speaker 1: Just guessing. Both of these teams have played pretty soft schedules.
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  Speaker 1: Take the numbers with a grain of salt. As you
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  Speaker 1: can see, Virginia number 113 in opponent PPA margin. Duke
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  Speaker 1: number 135. The offenses faced, Virginia played a tougher schedule
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  Speaker 1: as far as that is concerned. But defensive PPA faced,
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  Speaker 1: number 123. Duke number 137. Duke has faced the number
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  Speaker 1: 111 toughest offenses as far as PPA is concerned. That's
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  Speaker 1: predicted points added for those not familiar. Injuries pretty heavy
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  Speaker 1: on both sides. Virginia missing two safeties. They're missing a corner.
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  Speaker 1: They're missing the top running back. Well, Peyton Lewis. Duke
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  Speaker 1: is missing an offensive lineman, Craycraft. Who else? I just
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: saw it. They've got their corner, Evan Smith, safety, Pellicata.
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  Speaker 1: Y'all correct me in the comments. And a kicker. In
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  Speaker 1: a game with a one and a half point spread,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: like a backup kicker, may matter. We'll see. One thing
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  Speaker 1: to pay attention to. Duke commits eight penalties a game.
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  Speaker 1: That's 118th in the country. As you can see right here,
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  Speaker 1: Virginia is 23rd. They're a little more disciplined when it
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  Speaker 1: comes to that. Takeaways per game, neither team is very
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  Speaker 1: good at takeaways, but neither team actually turns the ball
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  Speaker 1: over either. So, you know, just curious, just curious. Flags
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  Speaker 1: could decide this thing. We'll see. Special teams, Virginia slightly better.
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  Speaker 1: Overall talent, I mean, it's basically a wash. This is
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  Speaker 1: five factors plus strength of schedule plus talent rank. number
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  Speaker 1: 41 and number 49. I mean, this thing is a
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  Speaker 1: coin flip. Anytime you got a coin flip, I mean,
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  Speaker 1: I know Virginia's at home, but if you got a
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  Speaker 1: coin flip, give me the dog here. I think Duke
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: can run the football a little bit. I don't trust
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  Speaker 1: Virginia very much right now to be able to do
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  Speaker 1: really much of anything. I don't feel like they've been
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  Speaker 1: very good the past few weeks. Give me Duke plus
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  Speaker 1: two and a half on the road. Game number two,
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  Speaker 1: Texas Tech at Cincinnati. Texas Tech a 10.5 point favorite
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  Speaker 1: on the road. Total 56.5. This one is Saturday, 11 a.m. Central.
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  Speaker 1: God's time zone on FS1. Texas Tech 6-0. They just
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  Speaker 1: beat Arizona State 53-25. Just annihilated them. Cincinnati lost a
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  Speaker 1: shootout last week with West Virginia 45-42. That was the
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: last second field goal. I mean, it was a tight
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  Speaker 1: ball game. Line came down to a point. This line
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  Speaker 1: came down a point, 11.5 to 10.5. Total is a
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  Speaker 1: flat 56.5. It was 55.5, went up just a touch.
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  Speaker 1: My stats projected total is 55.66, as you can see
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  Speaker 1: up there. Power rating, I've got Texas Tech minus 11.9.
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  Speaker 1: Stats model has Texas Tech minus 12.5. Both trends point
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  Speaker 1: the same way here. Joey McGuire is 17-4-1 against the
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  Speaker 1: spread in Big 12 games since 2024. 21-game sample is
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  Speaker 1: pretty big. Cincy is 4-19 against the spread off of
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  Speaker 1: a straight-up loss since 2021. That's 23 games, and now
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  Speaker 1: Cincy is off of a loss. My model, as you see,
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  Speaker 1: has Texas Tech by 12.5. That's two points of value
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  Speaker 1: on the Red Raiders. The total is right on the number.
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  Speaker 1: The matchup, Tech's defense is 12th. in PPA allowed per drive.
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  Speaker 1: Cincy's offense is pretty good there, number nine in PPA
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  Speaker 1: per drive. Tech, let's see, looking at their defense, they
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  Speaker 1: are number 12 in the country in yards allowed per rush,
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  Speaker 1: number 12. And that's a Cincy strong suit, right? Cincinnati's offense,
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  Speaker 1: really good. So we've got a really good matchup here
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  Speaker 1: as far as offense versus defense. On the other side, though,
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  Speaker 1: Cincinnati's defense, I mean, they can't stop a cold. Like,
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  Speaker 1: it's rough. Cincy's pass defense is 127th in PPA. They
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  Speaker 1: are 127th on third down. Third down conversion percentage. Like,
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  Speaker 1: number 130 in points per scoring opportunity. And a scoring
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  Speaker 1: opportunity is when you get a first down inside the
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  Speaker 1: opponent's 40-yard line. It's basically just telling you who's good
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  Speaker 1: at finishing drives. And Texas Tech getting great, the number
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  Speaker 1: 49 on offense. But Cincy at 130?
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  Speaker 2: Rough.
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  Speaker 1: Very, very rough. On the other side... Texas Tech's defense
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  Speaker 1: number 12 in points allowed per scoring opportunity. Cincy's offense
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  Speaker 1: number 12 in points per scoring opportunity. So that's the
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  Speaker 1: name of the game right here is can Texas Tech's
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  Speaker 1: defense get enough stops? And I believe they can. Like,
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: looking at turnover margin, one thing to pay attention to,
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  Speaker 1: these two teams are they've both got really good turnover margins,
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  Speaker 1: but they go about it different ways, right? Tech is
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  Speaker 1: number 96 in giveaways per game, but they're number 8
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  Speaker 1: in takeaways. They're pretty aggressive. On the other side, Cincinnati,
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: number 2 in giveaways per game, they don't turn the
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: ball over, but they're only number 67 in takeaways. So,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Slight difference there. Slight difference. Cincy allows explosive plays, but
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  Speaker 1: they also generate them a lot. Tech is pretty average
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  Speaker 1: on both. Number 53 on both of those. But Cincy
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  Speaker 1: number 18 on offense, number 105 on defense. So they're
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  Speaker 1: both in the 50s as far as net explosiveness, but
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: they certainly go about it different ways. Certainly go about
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: it different ways. Tech is fifth in the country in
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  Speaker 1: second half point margin, but they're also number 19 in
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  Speaker 1: first half point margin. A big part of this Has
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: a lot to do with the fact that they have faced, well,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: I was going to say some easier competition. Sagarin's strength
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  Speaker 1: schedule has them really close. Number 68, number 67 as
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: far as strength of schedule. Cincy has played the number
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  Speaker 1: 64 opponent PPA margin schedule in the country. Texas Tech
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: number 71. Cincy number 32 in offensive PPA faced. Tech
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: number 74 as far as defenses. Cincy number 72. Tech
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: number 89. So, since he has faced a slightly more
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: difficult schedule, I don't know that it's going to matter here, right?
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: Since he's been playing from behind basically all year, as
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: far as injuries, Tech is missing their running back Cameron Dickey,
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: their receivers Dante Lee and Jalen Jones. Since he lost
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: their safety tie at Goodwill for the season, and their
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: running back Payne is out here, so depth certainly taking
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: a hit here later. The trends and the models agree
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: on this, I'll roll with them. Give me Texas Tech
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: minus 11.5. I think Cincy, coming off of that loss,
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: even though they're going to be at home, I think
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech has found something after that Arizona State game.
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  Speaker 1: I think they'll open up enough of a can, and
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: I think the defense is good enough to slow down Cincinnati,
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  Speaker 1: so I will take Texas Tech to cover 11.5. Game
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: number three, Pitt at Miami. Miami a 20.5-point home favorite,
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: total of 51.5. This one also 11 a.m. Central, God's
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  Speaker 1: time zone on ESPN. Pitt started 5-0, and then Mason
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Heintzel tore his ACL against Virginia Tech. They've lost two
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: straight since then, 21-17 to North Carolina, and then 27-21
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: at Boston College with a true freshman, Corey Daly. 13 penalties,
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: three turnovers. Miami is 6-0, and boy, I mean, they
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: had to fight. for that Miami game, or sorry, the
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: Florida State game, 43-35 in that one. Line opened 23.5
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: on this. It's 20.5 right now. Total is down 2-51.5.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: Mario Cristobal is 13-25 against the spread against ACC teams
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: since 2021. That is 38 games. That would tell you
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Pitt plus the points. Miami is also 20-11 to the
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: over as a favorite since 2024. That's 31 games. My
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: model says Miami by 21.6. The stats model has Miami
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: minus 21.6. So about a point of value on Miami.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: And almost two points to the over. 53.33 is the
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: stats projected total. The power rating has Miami minus 17.2.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: But the power rating, I don't know if it... I
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: don't know if they fully understand how bad Pitt has
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: been with backup quarterbacks. Heinzel is great. Thus far, the offense,
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: without him, everything has kind of fallen off a cliff.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: They're now number 56 in PPA per drive. It was
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: better than that. The defense is still pretty good. Number
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: 7 in success rate. Number 22 in PPA allowed per drive.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: But they're not even close to what Miami's bringing to
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: the table. Miami's offense is just ridiculous. I mean, they're
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: first in points per drive. They are first in QBR, which...
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Come on and move down here. Number 1 in QBR.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Number 1 in PPA per pass. They are number 3
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: in yards per rush. Number 1 in offensive line yards.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: Number 3 in stuff rate. They are number 11 in
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity. They are on the defensive side
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: number 8 in points allowed per scoring opportunity. This team
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: is like number 2 in net explosiveness. Just everything about
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: this team is just killing it. But You can tell
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: the strength of schedule certainly plays into their five factors,
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: plus strength of schedule, plus talent rank. But it kind
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: of does the same thing with Pitt. Pitt is number
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: 21 in raw five factors. Miami is number six. But
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: you factor in strength of schedule and talent, Miami drops
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: to 18th, Pitt drops to 37th. Just throwing it out there.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: First half point margin, Pitt number 34, Miami number four.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: Second half point margin, Pitt number 38, Miami number eight.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: Miami is just significantly better at almost everything. Almost everything.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: If Miami can't get the run game going, which it
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: makes sense if they couldn't because Pitt is number one
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: in PPA allowed per rush. They're number one in yards
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: allowed per rush. Number four in rushing success rate allowed.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: Number two in offensive line yards allowed. Number three in
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: stuff rate. There's a lot to like about Pitt's defense. However,
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: Darian Mensah and company with Malachi Toney and Cooper Barcade, etc.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: Number three in yards per pass attempt. Pitt's defense number
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: 105 in yards allowed per pass attempt. Number one in QBR.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: Pitt is number 78 in QBR allowed. They'll be able
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: to torture this Pitt secondary, which is just wrecked. They
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: got four defensive backs out. Yeah, it's just going to
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: be rough, right? Cristobal's 38-game trend says to take the points,
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: and the model says that Miami is a hair better
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: than the number. Everything lines up for the over, but
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: if I'm taking an over, I'm going to bet on
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: Miami to score, and I fully expect them to. So
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: this thing got under 21, so it's 20.5. Give me Miami.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: Miami minus 20.5. Kickoff is coming. The coffee's strong. You've
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: already got opinions about every spread on the board. Well,
• 16:40
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• 16:44
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• 16:50
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• 17:22
  Speaker 1: Keep it fun and play responsibly. Game number four, we
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: got Rutgers at Northwestern. Northwestern is 16.5 point home favorite,
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: total of 58.5. This one's 11 a.m. Central on Peacock. Northwestern, 5-1,
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: they just won 24-21 at Michigan State on the last
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: second field goal. Of course, that was against their former coach,
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: Pat Fitzgerald. It probably meant more to the coach than
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: it did to the current players because a lot of
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: those players have not played for Pat Fitzgerald. Rutgers, 2-4,
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: won 37-30 at Maryland last week. This line hasn't really moved.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: It's been sitting at 16.5 for a little bit on Sunday.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: It was at 15.5. It has moved up a little bit.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: but it has stayed at 58.5. The trend is the under.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: Rutgers is 8-21 to the over on the road since 2021.
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: That's 29 games. The descent here is Greg Sciano is
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: 10-2 to the over when the total is 55-59.5. It's
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: not a huge sample, but 10-2 is still pretty good.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: My model agrees with the under. It's got 54.35 for
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: the stats projected total. That's about... Four points under the number.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: I've got Northwestern. The stats model has Northwestern minus 18.9.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: Power rating has Northwestern minus 15.3. Let's talk about the matchup.
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: Rutgers defense is 120th per drive, 125th in points per
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: drive allowed, and 136th in explosive plays allowed. That ain't good.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: Number 136 in defensive explosiveness allowed there. You look at their...
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: Success rate, 120. Mention that. Number 120 in PPA allowed
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: per drive. Just not great. And if you just look overall,
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: they're just not good at anything. They're really not good
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: at stopping the run, which is, I would say, Northwestern's
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: bread and butter because they run it about 57% of
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: the time. Number 28 in PPA per rush for Northwestern.
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: Number 128 for Rutgers. On offense... like passing the ball,
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: Northwestern pretty good there, number 13 in PPA per pass.
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: The Rutgers defense number 114 in PPA allowed per pass.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: Like that just kind of encapsulates all of the efficiency
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: into one number. Rutgers turns it over 1.83 times per game.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: That is 124th in the country. They're number 124 in
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: turnover margin. Northwestern number 8 in turnover margin. They're number
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: 2 in giveaways per game. You start looking at first
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: half point margin and Northwestern should come out of the
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: gates super hot here. I mean, just bananas. Because Rutgers
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: gets outscored by 14 points in first halves. Number 132.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: Northwestern number 22 in first half point margin. Northwestern's quarterback,
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: number 11 in QBR, 9.8 yards per attempt. Like, there's
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: a lot here. They haven't thrown a pick. They score
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: in the red zone 96% of the time. That is
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: fourth in the country. Right there. They're 45th in offensive
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: red zone touchdown rate. And this Rutgers defense... number 72
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: in defensive red zone touchdown rate. The Northwestern defense, number
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: 17 in defensive red zone touchdown rate. Northwestern on defense,
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: number 32 in points allowed per scoring opportunity. Rutgers, their
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: offense is number 45 in points per scoring opportunity, but
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: they're only number 77 in scoring opportunities per game. The
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: one good thing, I guess, for Rutgers, they are number
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: four in penalties per game. Northwestern, number 100. Sometimes I
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: look at penalties as who is the more aggressive team.
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: I would talk that up to Northwestern here. Injuries, Rutgers
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: has got several game-time decisions here. I wouldn't necessarily count
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: on hardly anybody being out. Northwestern's got five new names
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: that are out, including their top-rated defensive back, their tight end,
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: and whatnot. There's all kinds of stuff going on here.
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: Under 58.5 is where the trend and the model meet.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: which sounds weird for a Rutgers game, depending, they can't
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: stop anybody, and you kind of expect the offense to
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: put up some points, right? I don't think it's going
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: to be enough. Like, I think that Northwestern, that number
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: is 16.5 right now. I'm going to go Northwestern minus 16.5
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: because I think they'll be able to get enough stops,
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: and I think their running game is going to do
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: whatever they want to all day. I think Chip Kelly
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: and Jerry Neuheisel, I think they're just kind of salivating
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: at this one because they should absolutely handle business here
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: now that they've got the Michigan State game out of
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: the way. They're back home. They ought to handle this
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: one pretty easily. So Northwestern minus 16.5. Game number five,
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: Baylor at Kansas. We got us a big 12 matchup here.
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: Baylor a three-point favorite at home, total of 53.5 on
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: this one. Noon Central, this one's on TNT or TruTV,
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: whichever one the Big 12's got that deal with, or
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: maybe both of them. Who knows? Baylor is 4-2. They
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: lost last week 17-6 to TCU, and boy, you want
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: to talk about a game that just flipped everything for
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: a team. They were 4-1. They were riding high after
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: a win over Arizona State, and now everybody's talking about
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: firing Dave Aranda again. Kansas, 2-4. They lost 35-24 at
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: Kansas State. They moved the ball up and down the field.
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: The offense is doing great. Pretty good stuff right now.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: Defense has actually been pretty good. Like, not bad at all.
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: The line here moved from 1.5 to 3 towards Baylor.
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: Total is down a point to 53.5. That makes sense
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: because my stats projected total has it 50.49. So I
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: understand why it's moved down a little bit. As far
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: as trends, Lenslight pulled 16-6-2 against the spread as a
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: home dog. That's over 22 games. Pretty good sample size. Baylor,
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: 19-8 to the over on the road since 2021. That's
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: 27 games. Another pretty good sample size. My model has Baylor,
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: or sorry, the stats model has Baylor minus 2.87. Power
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: rating has Baylor minus 3.6. So I'm kind of right
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: on the number. Again, my total, three points under the total.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: So the trend says over, the model says under. Here's
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: the weird thing about Baylor. They run more plays than
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: anybody in the country, 153 a game, and that's certainly
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: a Spavitol thing. They're number two in plays per minute.
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: Kansas also plays per minute number 27. Their offense is
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: 127th in success rate. They score touchdowns in the red
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: zone only 46% of the time. That's 125th. The Baylor
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: defense is the real deal, though. I mean, the real,
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: real deal. Fourth in points per drive. 14.7 points a game, 2.6
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: yards per carry allowed. They are really good at stopping
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: the run. That's what Kansas does best. Kansas runs the
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: ball over 54% of the time. They're 15th in rushing
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: success rate, while Baylor's defense is 5th in success allowed.
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: They are number 6 in yards allowed per rush, number
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: 2 in PPA allowed per rush. Kansas, the Jayhawks want
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: to run, but their top three running backs are gone.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: Willis is out, Amitri is out, and Justin Thurman is
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: out for the season. Quarterback Cole Ballard is listed out too,
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: but I feel good about the other guy that they got.
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: Baylor's injury list is minimal. Leipold's home dog's number is
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: really strong. I'd be wary about the injury situation. I
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: think they're still probably going to be able to move
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: the ball some, But I think after a no-show last week,
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: I get why Baylor minus 1.5 has jumped up to 3.
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: It's a little more than what my model has. Power
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: rating still has Baylor minus 3.6. This thing's sitting on
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: a flat 3. Give me Baylor on the road. Baylor
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: minus 3, I think they can upset Kansas. Or not upset.
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: I think they can get a road win. How's that?
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: Is that fair enough? But I'll take the Bears here.
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: Want extra Winning Cures Everything content and a way to
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• 26:02
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• 26:06
  Speaker 2: Hello, Winning Cures Everything audience.
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: This is T.J.
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: Reeves of Three Dog Thursday. We are rolling on the
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: only digital show that's devoted exclusively to the college football underdogs.
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: How about 14 and 4 in the month of October?
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: Another 5-1 week last week. I'm 7-2. Jason Powers, my colleague,
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: is 7-2. What's going to happen this week with the underdogs?
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: Find out right here on Winning Cures Everything Thursdays. It's
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: Three Dog Thursday. We're rolling on the Winning Cures Everything
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: platform on Three Dog Thursday.
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: Game number six over to the Big Ten. We got
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: a backup quarterback battle here. Oregon at Illinois. Oregon an
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: eight and a half point favorite. Total of 50 and
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: a half. This one 2 p.m. Central. God's time zone.
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: On the Big Ten Network, it might be the weirdest
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: game on the card. Both starting quarterbacks are listed out.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: Dante Moore missed last week, too. The Ducks barely beat
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: Nebraska 17-14. And that was, Brock Thomas was not great.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: And Dylan Rayola came in. He wasn't great either. They
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: combined for 113 passing yards. Illinois' Caden Houser broke his
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: hand in the Michigan State game. Illinois had a bye
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: last week, but Michael Clayton, sorry, Michael Clayton II, he
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: stepped in. was 6-8 for 88 yards with two touchdowns
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: against Michigan State two weeks ago. Looked pretty good. I mean, granted,
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: that was against Michigan State, but still. This line has
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: come down four points from 12.5 to 8.5. Total, 51.5
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: down to 50.5. The trends say Illinois in the under.
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: Illinois 14-5 against the spread off of a win since 2024.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: That's 19 games. They are 9-3 off of a bye.
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: They're off both. Bielema, 13-27-1 to the over as a dog.
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: Certainly looking like an under there. And that's a big
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: sample size, too. That's 40 games. My model has Oregon
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: minus 13.96. So the stats model has Oregon by 14.
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: It's got the over by 5, 55.46. My model don't
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: know what to do with these teams. With the quarterbacks
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: being out, what do I trust? Illinois' defense is 134th
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: per drive in PPA. I mean, that's just awful. They're
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: 134th in pass success allowed. If Brock Thomas and Dylan
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: Rayola were ever going to have a game where they
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: could throw the ball, it's probably this one. I mean,
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: Illinois number 125 in PPA allowed per pass, number 126
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: in QBR allowed, number 134 in passing success rate allowed.
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: They can't. generate any havoc. They can't get after the quarterback.
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: This would be the spot. This would be the spot.
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: Illinois has given up a score on every single red
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: zone trip. They are number 137 in defensive red zone
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: conversion percentage, number 99 in defensive red zone touchdown rate.
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: Just brutal. They fired their defense coordinator in September. They
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: haven't gotten better. Oregon's third down defense is third in
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: the country. If nothing else, Oregon's defense is is legit.
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: But Oregon does give it away 1.83 times a game.
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: That's 124th in the country. So we got weird spots
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: here because Illinois is 133 in takeaways per game, but
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: they don't give the ball away. Oregon gives the ball
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: away all the time and they take the ball away.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: all the time. So, very odd what's going to end
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: up happening here. I'm not sure exactly what to expect.
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: Oregon is missing their receiver, Jeremiah McClellan. Evan Stewart is questionable.
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: Got arrested for DUI. You've got an Illinois team that
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: is rested at home. They're getting 8.5. You've got a
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: 40-game undertrend My model still likes the over, but also
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: Oregon has played a ridiculously tough schedule. They have found
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: ways to get wins. They have played tight with some
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: good football teams, and that's without their starting quarterback. They've
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: got some dudes out and whatnot, but I'm not going
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: to bite on this Illinois thing because... It's one thing
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: for Clayton to come in and play well against a
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: Michigan State team that was missing like seven rotation guys, right?
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: It's another thing when that Michigan State team that has
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: been no good on offense, when they were able to
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: put up 37 points and nearly beat you in overtime.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: I know that there's been an off week, etc. I
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: still think Oregon is slightly better. I think they will
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: be able to get this done. They're laying 8.5. Give
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: me Oregon on the road, minus 8.5. Game number seven,
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: Floyd of Rosedale. Iowa at Minnesota. Iowa a seven-point favorite
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: on the road. Total of 40.5 here. 2.30 p.m. Central
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: Time on FS1. Both teams coming off buys. That's kind
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: of nice to see. Iowa 5-1. They won 41-24 at Washington.
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: They had Jeremy Hiklinski at quarterback. I mean, he was awesome. Like,
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: he was just awesome, right? Heklinski threw three touchdowns. Hank
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: Brown is questionable with the shoulder. The job might just
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: be Heklinski's now, right? Minnesota 4-2. They got blown out
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: 41-13 at Purdue. And that was after a huge win
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: over Michigan. I mean, we all should have seen that coming, right?
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: Good gracious. Line moved from 4.5 to 7 towards Iowa.
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: Total is down to 40.5 here. The trends, Minnesota is
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: 2-10-1 to the over at home when the total is
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: under 45. That's 12 games. That's a pretty good sample size.
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: Kirk Ferentz is 19-9 against the spread as a road
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: favorite over 28 games. Also makes total sense. The board
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: also has a Ferentz split for lines under 7. It's
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: 7 now, so that trend, we'll toss that one. We'll
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: toss that one. My model has Iowa minus 6.47. That's
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: pretty close to the number here. It's got the total
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: at 49, though. That's 8.6 points over. That's a huge gap.
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: The trend says under, so that's a conflict. My model
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: tends to run a little high. I'd be careful of
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: that one. Here's why the total is so low and
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: why I don't fully trust my model on this one.
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's offense, 117th in yards per carry, 137th in offensive
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: line yards. They can't run the football. Like, and that's
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: even with Darius Taylor and whatnot. And I know that
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: he's been in and out of the lineup, but like
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: offensive line yards, 137th, 131st and stuff right allowed. They're
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: number 119 and rushing explosiveness. And you ain't going to
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: be able to do nothing with this Iowa defense. Iowa
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: number four in PPA allowed per rush. Minnesota is 131st
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: in PPA per rush. Good luck with that. Iowa's defense
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: gives up 14.5 points per game. That's number eight in
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: the country. Uh, They give up 2.51 yards per carry.
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: That's fifth. Iowa runs for 6.09 yards per rush. Minnesota's
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: defense is 62nd in that metric. They can't throw it, though.
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: I think they're getting better. Hiklinski certainly gives them more
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: of a shot, but they are still 121st in passing
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: success rate. They are 77th in QBR, 66th in PPA
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: per pass, but they don't let people get after the quarterback.
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: They're number 15 in Havoc Rate Allowed. Minnesota's defense is
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: number six in Havoc But, again, good luck trying to
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: do that against Iowa. Iowa's top defensive back, Tyler Brown,
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: is out. Minnesota's backup quarterback, Michael Merdinger, is out. So
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: a little depth concerns there. They've also lost two offensive linemen.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: They also lost a running back, Estrada, for the season.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: This is a trophy game with two teams that want
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: to run it, and it may be some quarterback questions
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: on both sides. Trent says under. The model says over.
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: I am going to roll with Iowa on this. Iowa
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: has played such a more ridiculous schedule than Minnesota, especially
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: with defenses faced. Iowa, the defensive PPA faced, is the
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: second toughest in the country. They are number 27 in
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: opponent PPA margin schedule. Minnesota is 80th. And Iowa is
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: still 4-2 against the spread, 5-1 straight up. Yeah, this
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: Iowa team, really good. Really good. So I'll roll with
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: the road team. I think Iowa gets this thing done.
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: Give me Iowa minus seven on the road. Going with
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: another road favorite. We're going to see what happens here.
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: Game number eight. Michigan State goes to UCLA. UCLA a
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: 14-point favorite. Total of 44.5 here. 2.30 p.m. Central Time.
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: God's time zone on CBS. UCLA 6-0. Now, they lost
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: Nico for the season in that win at Oregon, but
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: then they beat Wisconsin 17-7 with Ty Dieffenbach. Dieffenbach? Dieffenbach?
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: What is it? What kind of accent was that? Dieffenbach?
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: All right, Ty Dieffenbach. Michigan State 2-5, five straight losses.
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: Last week, Pat Fitzgerald lost to his old team, Northwestern,
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: 24-21 on the last second field goal, but they did cover.
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: The issue for me is that I think that the
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: team put a whole lot into that one. That was
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: an emotional spot for Fitzgerald and company, And now you've
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: got to go on the road to L.A., and UCLA
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: is kind of rolling. This line has moved half a
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: point to 14. The total is down 3 to 44.5.
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: Fitzgerald 2-9 against the spread off a cover. It's only
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: 11 games, but it's pretty thin, but still, that's a trend.
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: 2-9 is pretty crazy. Michigan State is off of a
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: cover here. On the total, Fitzgerald 7-17 to the over.
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: when the total is 45 to 49.5. It's now 44.5,
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: so it's just outside that. Let's just call that a
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: lean as far as an under. My model, the stats
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: model has UCLA minus 22.99. I mean, that is nine
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: points of value on UCLA. It's the biggest side gap
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: on the entire card. The model also says five points
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: to the over. 49.72 is my stats projected total. UCLA's defense,
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: number one in the country per drive. Like PPA per drive.
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: That's crazy. Fourth overall defensive success rate, as you can
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: see there. They are second in takeaways at 3.17 per game.
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: Michigan State's offense is 118th per drive in PPA on offense.
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: The red zone defense is 135th. They are 137th. Where
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: do I put that note? 137th in takeaways. There it
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: is right there. Takeaways per game, 137. This is crazy.
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: UCLA's schedule has been pretty soft, right? Their current strength
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: of schedule based on Sagarin is 24th. But when you
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: look at the opponent PPA margin, number 121, and then
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: Michigan State, number 11 there. Penalties per game, huge difference here.
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: UCLA number 136 in penalties per game. Michigan State number
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: four in penalties per game, so they're pretty disciplined there.
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: But again, penalties per game kind of shows to me
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: who is more aggressive. And UCLA number two in takeaways
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: per game. Michigan State at number 137 in takeaways per game,
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: but they're number four in penalties. You can kind of
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: see what I'm talking about here. Michigan State's secondary is gutted.
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: They've got three cornerbacks out. Plus, they've got three linebackers out.
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: UCLA is missing a couple of defensive backs. You've got
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: a thin trend and a big model edge on the
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: card that are pointing the same way, and that's towards UCLA.
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't worry about the total on this. If you're
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: going to go anyway, I would go with UCLA. This
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: UCLA team is just legit. I really think they're pretty good.
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: They're at home, and Michigan State coming off a pretty
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: emotional spot. It's a big number. I'm going to lay it.
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: Give me UCLA minus 14 on this one. Game number
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: 9 to the Big 12 we go. Kansas State at
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: Arizona State. Kansas State a 3.5 point road favorite. Total
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: of 56.5. 2.45 p.m. Central Time on ESPN2. K-State 4-2.
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: They beat Kansas last week 35-24. Arizona State 3-3 and
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: they got waxed. 53-25 at Texas Tech and that actually
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: might be Arizona State 3-3, and they got waxed. 53-25
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: at Texas Tech, and that actually might be, that sounds
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: closer than the game felt. It was 43-10 at the half.
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: This line has moved half a point from 3-3.5. The
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: total's pretty flat at 56.5 here. Trends say Arizona State
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: in the under. Kenny Dillingham, 12-3-1 against the spread off
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: of a loss since 2021. That's 15 games. decent sample size. Um,
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: Arizona state six and 14 to the over when the
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: total is 56 and a half or higher, that's 20 games.
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: This Arizona state team is bad. Like they are number
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: one Oh seven and PPA margin. Number one Oh nine
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: offensive PPA per drive. Number 83 running the ball. Like I,
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: I just can't figure this team out. Number one, 14
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: and turnover margin. Um, You look at first half point margin,
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: second half point margin, five factors rank, number 103 in
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: raw rank. And it could have a lot to do
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: with the fact that they face the number five PPA
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: defenses in the country, number 30 in opponent PPA margin.
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: Certainly different than what Kansas State has faced thus far.
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: But man, like Cutter Bowley, the quarterback, got benched last week.
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: Mikey Keene had to come in and play. How he's
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: still playing, I have no idea. But that's neither here
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: nor there. My model has Kansas State minus 7.67. 4.2
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: points of value on the Wildcats. Total is a touch
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: under 55.8 is what I've got it projected. 56.5, so
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: that's a little bit to the under. Power rating has
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: Kansas State minus 5.2. The matchup that the model loves,
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: Kansas State runs for 6.23 yards a carry. That's second
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: in the country. They are third in rushing success. Arizona
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: State number 108 in yards allowed per rush. Kansas State
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: number two in the country in third down conversion percentage.
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: Arizona State's defense number 72. Arizona State is just not
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: a very good football team. There's a lot of different
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: things you could point at here. Both of them around
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: the top 100 as far as turnover margin goes, but
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: they get to it a different way. Kansas State, number
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: 41 in giveaways per game. They don't do it very often,
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: but they also don't do a lot of takeaways. Arizona State,
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: number 113 in giveaways, but they're number 86 in takeaways,
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: so there's that. Both teams inside the top 20 as
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: far as penalties per game. You start looking at points
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity, etc., This Kansas State defense, not very
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: good at stopping opponents once they get a first down
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: inside their 40. But, you know, Kansas State, number 24
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: in points per scoring opportunity on offense. I mean, it's
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: just ridiculous. Kansas State is number 127 in explosive plays allowed.
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: Curious if Arizona State can, like, if they can create
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: some explosives. They're number 61 in offensive explosiveness. So, we'll see. But,
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: The problem that Kansas State has, they're number 134 in
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: rushing explosiveness allowed. Well, Arizona State's number 80 there. And
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: so I'm curious. Very, very curious. There's a few injuries
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: here and there. It's nothing too crazy. Arizona State's missing
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: their top defensive back. The model says Kansas State. The
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: trend says Arizona State. I cannot, after watching Arizona State
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: the past few weeks... I can't wager on this team.
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: I can't pick this team. I think they're really bad.
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: So I will take Kansas State minus 7.67. Well, technically
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: the line is Kansas State minus 3.5. But the power
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: rating and the model both agree. I'm going to ride
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: with that. Give me Kansas State minus 3.5 on the road.
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: I just think Arizona State is in a world of
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: problems right now. Game number 10, we've got a Pac-12 battle.
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: Boise State heads to Washington State. Boise a 13.5 point favorite.
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: Total 51.5 on this. Boise is the road team here.
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: It's 5 o'clock Central. Of course, God's time zone on
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: USA Network. Boise 5-1 and off of a bye. Before that,
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: they won 38-31 at Fresno State. They did not cover
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: that game. Washington State is 1-6. Four straight losses. They
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: just lost 48-30 at Oregon State. They demoted their offensive
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: coordinator back on October 4th. Yeesh, right? I mean, that's
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: just not the way you want to look at things.
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: Matt Miller was their offensive coordinator. Trent Bray, former Oregon
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: State defensive coordinator, also former Oregon State head coach, who
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: was really not good. The line has moved half a
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: point up to 13.5. The total is up a point
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: to 51.5. On Sunday, this thing was Boise State minus 12.5
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: with a total of 50.5. So moving a little bit.
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: The trend here, Boise is 18-5-2 against the spread off
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: a spread loss since 2021. That's 23 games. Boise is
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: off of a spread loss, and they're off of a bye.
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: My model says Boise by 15.5, as you can see here.
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: Power rating has Boise minus 14.6. The total I've got
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: just kind of dead on the number, 51.63. is my
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: projected total. Washington State's offense is really bad. Number 129
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: in PPA per drive. Number 135 in offensive success rate.
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, things have just not gone well at all,
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: especially for an offensive head coach in Kirby Moore. Just
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: not what you would have expected at all. Number 137th
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: in passing success. Five and a half yards per attempt.
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: That's 136th. I mean, these are deep red numbers for
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: the passing game. Just would not have expected that at all.
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: They're 129th in turnover margin. They get outscored by 11.5
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: in the second half. And Boise is number 30 in
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: second half point margin. Boise's offense, they are 6th per
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: drive in PPA. So predictive points added. They are 10th
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: in passing success. They have not thrown an interception yet.
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: Boise's injury situation, their receiver room is pretty thin. Washington
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: State did lose a receiver and a linebacker for the year.
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: The trend and the model both agree here on Boise. And, yeah,
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: they're on the road. And, yeah, Washington State's trying to
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: get some things put together. But it's still under 14. Like,
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: I'm going to ride Boise on this one. So I'm
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: going with another favorite, another road favorite, which probably my
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: famous last words at this point. But give me Boise
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: minus 13.5 on the road. I think they cover this one.
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: Are you tired of sore knees or joints slowing you down?
• 46:39
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• 46:48
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• 46:54
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• 47:06
  Speaker 1: Game number 11 to the Big 12 we go. Colorado
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: heads to Stillwater to take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State a 13.5 point home favorite. Total of 55.5
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: on this one. 6 p.m. Central on FS1. Colorado just 2-4.
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: They just took Utah to the wire last week as
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: a 15 point dog. They lost that one 27-24. Oklahoma State, 4-2.
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: They lost 35-32 to Houston last week. The line came
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: down a point, 14.5 to 13.5. Total sits flat at 55.5
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: right now. It was at 54.5. It moved up about
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: a point on Sunday, and it's been sitting there ever since.
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: My stats predicted total has it 52 points. Unders with
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: Eric Morris kind of, eh, eh. I don't feel great
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: about it. Eric Morris, 10-1 against the spread as a
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: home favorite of three or more since 2024. It's 11 games.
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: It's kind of thin, mostly from his North Texas days,
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: but the trend still fits here. Morris, 15-5 to the
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: over in conference games. That's a 20-game sample size. Again,
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: that goes back to North Texas, but this offense has
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: been absolutely clicking as of late. My model has Oklahoma
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: State minus 15.71. Power rating has Oklahoma State minus 13.6.
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: You know.
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: Okay. I'm feeling good about this, I think. Colorado's offense
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: is still 121st in PPA per drive. 131st in points
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: per drive. There we go. Offensive points per drive, number 131. 1.54
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: points per drive. They're 130th in red zone conversion percentage.
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: They give it away 2.17 times per game. That's 134th.
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: They're 129th in turnover margin. They commit 9.2 penalties per game.
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: That's 134th. Like, just nothing about this team is really
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: wrapped up, right? They played Texas Tech tight for a while.
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: They played Utah tight the whole ball game. They won
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: at Georgia Tech. But man, they're still just not a
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: very good football team. They're okay on defense, I suppose.
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: But they're number 127 in passing explosiveness. And Drew Mestemaker
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: is at number 17 in passing explosiveness. Like, it's crazy.
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State, 11th in offensive success rate, 15th in QBR.
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: They were number 9 in yards per pass attempt. But
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: they give it away, too. Number 124 in giveaways per game.
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: Colorado has played a pretty difficult schedule, right? Number 10
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: in Sager and Strength of Schedule, Oklahoma State number 23.
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: But if you look at the PPA margins, massive difference.
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: Colorado State number 5 in opponent PPA margin, Oklahoma State
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: number 41. So, Colorado has played some really difficult teams. Like,
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: really difficult teams. Colorado's got some injuries at receiver. They've
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: got injuries at corner, at linebacker. Oklahoma State is missing
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: their safety and defensive tackle, Landon Dean. Colorado, without those receivers,
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: I think kind of cuts against the over. Although, Oklahoma
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: State could probably get there by themselves. I do wonder
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: about this Colorado defense, how they're going to be able
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: to slow these guys down. Colorado's offense was already 123rd
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: in scoring, and I think it may go down, although
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State's defense isn't exactly great. Like number 79 in
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: PPA allowed per drive, number 84 in defensive success rate allowed.
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: I'm going to side with the model here, again, with
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: a favorite Oklahoma State 13.5 point favorite. Colorado has given
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: a whole bunch in these last few games. And I
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: think Oklahoma State coming back home, the Eric Morris trend
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: of covering at home, I feel okay about that. And
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: this is under two touchdowns. So I will roll with
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State minus 13.5. I think they win this by
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: at least two touchdowns and probably more because I think
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: when you look at the second half, I think this
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: one will kind of open things up. Maybe don't play
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: first half, but if you can play it after halftime,
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: this thing's kind of close. I think Oklahoma State opens
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: this thing up in the second half. Give me Oklahoma
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: State minus 13.5. Game number 12 in the ACC. Virginia
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: Tech goes to Clemson. Clemson favored by 2.5. Total 48.5
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: on this one. 6 p.m. Central Time, God's time zone
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: on ESPN. The line flipped. Virginia Tech opened as a 1.5-point favorite.
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: Now Clemson is favored by 2.5. Total has also come
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: down 49.5, down to 48.5. Virginia Tech 5-2. They beat
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech 34-24 last week. Numbers weren't great, but a
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: win's a win. Clemson 4-2. They beat Charleston Southern 37-0.
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: Clemson is starting a true freshman. Tate Reynolds at quarterback.
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: The trend to know right here. Clemson 5-13 against the
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: spread at home since 2024. That's over 18 games. Now,
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: the descent, James Franklin is 5-12 against the spread in
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: conference games. So I've got kind of low conviction on
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: both sides here. My model has Virginia Tech by 0.09. So,
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: found that interesting. You know, if Virginia Tech opened a
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: point and a half, well, it went the correct way.
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: It should be closer to a pick-em. The power rating
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: has Clemson minus 3.2, right? The model has got the
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: total about 2.5 points over, 50.78, so something to pay
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: attention to there. Clemson's offense is number 126 in offensive
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: success rate, number 127 in PPA per drive. They are
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: 132nd in QBR. They cannot throw the football at all. 5.8
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: yards per attempt, that's number 133 in the country. And
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: to be fair, the Virginia Tech defense is not very
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: good at stopping the pass, but they ain't got to
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: worry about that here. Like, Virginia Tech is number two
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: in havoc rate, and Clemson is number 108 in havoc
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: rate allowed. Like, just bananas. Number 133 in yards per
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: pass attempt for Clemson is just outrageous. Outrageous. They have
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: scored touchdowns in the red zone. Only 40% of the time.
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: That's 133. Like, that's bad. Clemson is 106th in points
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: per game on offense. Yeah. Like, every time I look
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: at these numbers, I'm just shocked at how bad that
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: offense is. Virginia Tech's quarterback, number 18th in QBR. Tech
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: is 9th in first half margin. So, I mean, a
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: first half play on Virginia Tech might not be the
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: craziest thing. Because Virginia Tech, number 9 in first half
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: point margin, but number 106 in the second half. It's
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: the opposite way for Clemson. Number 114 in first half
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: point margin. Number 63 in second half point margin. So,
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: Clemson has played a significantly tougher schedule. Number 28 in
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: PPA margin, in opponent PPA margin. Virginia Tech, number 130.
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: When you look at the offenses that they faced, defenses
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: that they faced... Like, Clemson just a significantly stronger strength
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: of schedule than what Virginia Tech has had to play. So,
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: you look at the injury situation. Tech's offensive line is
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: beat up. Beat up. Their top-rated defender, Emmitt Laws, is
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: also out too, or one of their top-rated defenders. Tech's
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: schedule has been charming soft at this point. Clemson lost
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: their safety Polo Anderson, their tackle Marcus Strong, and a
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: corner Gibson for the season. So the depth is certainly
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: taking a hit. I would be very careful with this
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: because I have no idea what to expect from either
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: one of these teams. The numbers all look great for
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech, right? But again, with how soft that schedule
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: has been, I kind of agree with moving towards Clemson here.
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: So Virginia Tech has had some kind of iffy performances
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: here lately. I know they got the win last week,
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: but it still was not a great showing. So I'm
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: going to go against my model. I'm going to side
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: with the power rating here. Clemson minus 3.2 is the
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: power rating. The model has Virginia Tech minus 0.09. I
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: am going to take Clemson minus 2.5 at home, and
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: we'll see what happens. because this might be one of
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: those games that James Franklin has kind of been saving
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: up for. Like, this is one that you can sell
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: to your donor base. But Clemson is at home. Dabo
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: needs something good. I'll ride with Clemson, minus two and
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: a half. Game number 13, we finally got us an
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: SEC game to talk about. We got Vanderbilt. I was
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: going to say Virginia. It's Vanderbilt. At Kentucky, Kentucky an 11.5
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: point home favorite, total of 50.5. 6.30 p.m. Central Time,
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: God's time zone on the SEC Network. That's right. Kentucky
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: is 6-1. They're a top 10 team or top 11,
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: whatever they're ranked. Really good team. In contention for the playoff,
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: tied for first in the SEC. And they are playing
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: on the SEC Network. They beat Oklahoma last week. Kentucky
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: did 21-13. Vanderbilt 3-4 now. They lost 31-21 at home
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: to Arkansas. Turnovers did them in last week. Vandy quarterback
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: situation is interesting. They're starting the five-star freshman, Jared Curtis.
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: Now backup Blaze Berlowitz is out with a broken collarbone.
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: And Berlowitz was in because... Curtis hadn't been the healthiest.
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: He had to sit out the Georgia game. A couple
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: of different things here. Line has gone from 9.5 to 11.5
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: towards Kentucky. Total is down 2, down to 50.5. The
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: trends here, Clark Lee, 14-4 against the spread as a
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: dog since 2024. That's 18 games. 10-1 against the spread
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: as a road dog. That's 11 games. Still pretty thin,
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: but decent numbers. And I mean, if you're just looking
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: at overall winning percentage, I mean, good gracious. Vandy, 25-11
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: to the over, off of an over since 2021. That's
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: 36 games. And they're off an over. So, my model
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: has Kentucky minus 17.75. Power rating has Kentucky minus 14.8.
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: That's a lot of points towards Kentucky. So, it's fighting
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: a trend pretty hard on the side. It does agree
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: on the over. I've got the stats projected total at 54.01.
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: Why the model likes Kentucky, they are fourth in turnover margin,
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: number 26 in giveaways per game, number three in takeaways
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: per game. Vandy is number 122 in giveaways per game.
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: So I don't know that that's going to bode well
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: for Vanderbilt. They are number 126 in penalties per game.
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: Kentucky is number 13. Like, there's a lot of red
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: on this page for Vanderbilt. I will say that. Kentucky's
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: run game, 11th in success rate. Vandy's run defense is 108th.
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: Right there. Like, this is a mismatch in every sense
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: of the word.
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: There are some injuries to pay attention to. Kentucky's running back, Baxter.
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: Defensive lineman, Kalen Edwards, are going to be game-time decisions.
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: They're down a couple of inside linebackers. Clark Lee has
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: got a safety down, a corner down, a couple of
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: offensive linemen down as well. It's Clark Lee's dog magic
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: against what Will Stein has been doing here. And the
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: trend and the model both agree on the over on this.
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: But man, like Kentucky at this point, they were playing
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: their eighth straight week. They have had back-to-back-to-back wins over
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: South Carolina, LSU, and Oklahoma. All of them tight. At
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: some point, you imagine that the bottom's going to fall out,
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: the ball's going to bounce to the other team, something
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: like that. But... Looking at the numbers, just looking at
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: what these teams are, and Kentucky's faced a significantly stronger schedule.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: Number 22 in opponent PBA margin, Vandy number 74, and
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: Kentucky is 6-1 against the spread. Why is this number
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: sitting down here at 11.5? I think it's crazy. Kentucky
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: is a significantly better team, and Vanderbilt is bad and
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: beat up. Give me Kentucky. Minus 11.5. I may look
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: like an idiot, but this Vanderbilt team has been getting
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: their brains beat in lately, and Kentucky has been winning
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: tight ballgames. I know that eventually Kentucky is not going
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: to play as well. Like, it's going to take a while,
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: but they are immensely more talented, and they have been
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: playing significantly better than what Vanderbilt has been putting on
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: the field lately. So Kentucky minus 11.5 is going to
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: be the play on this. Game number 14, Syracuse at
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: North Carolina. North Carolina, an 8.5 point favorite, total of 46.5
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: on this. That's come up from 44.5, and it was
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: North Carolina minus 9.5. But this way, by the way, 6.30 p.m.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: Central Time on ACC Network. It's God's time zone. North
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: Carolina 4-2. They beat Duke last week 24-20 on the road.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: Syracuse is 2-4. They are 0-4 in the ACC. They
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: lost a pretty tight game to Louisville last week at home, 34-26.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: Malachi Nelson. Yes, the same guy that was at UTEP,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: that was at Boise, that was at USC, etc. He
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: is now at Syracuse as like the third string guy.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: Threw for 315 yards. He had two picks. But he's
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: looking a whole lot better. So, The line has come
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: down a point to 8.5. I told you about that.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: Total has come up two points. The trends love Syracuse.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: North Carolina 3-11-1 against the spread at home since 2024.
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: That's a 15-game sample size. They're 3-10 against the number
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: off of a win. That's 13 games. UNC is coming
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: off of a win. It was an emotional win. They
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: held up the victory bell, all that kind of stuff.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: Fran Brown, just 3-9 against the spread off of a cover.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: And they covered against Louisville. My model has North Carolina
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: minus 6.52. Power rating has North Carolina minus 6.3. I
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: guess I kind of get why the numbers are moving
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: towards Syracuse. So the trends and the model agree. And
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: the model is at 50.2 as far as the projected total.
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: So the number that jumps out here, Syracuse, this number
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: is crazy. They are dead last in the country in
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: penalties per game. Number 138. 10.2 penalties a game. Dead last.
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: 94 yards per game. That's also dead last. North Carolina
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: commits 4.2. That's the 7th fewest. Syracuse also gets outscored
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: by almost 9 in the second half, 128th in the country.
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: But it's not like North Carolina is a whole lot
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: better than number 100 in second half point margin. North
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: Carolina's running game, number 108 in yards per rush. Syracuse's defense,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: number 79. Syracuse's stuff rate is 8th. their offensive line
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: yards allowed is 19th. Like there's some good stuff going
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: on here. North Carolina, not great at running the ball.
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: They're number 76 and rushing success rate, but they are
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: number six and rushing explosiveness. So Bobby Petrino can still
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: dial up those explosives. They are number seven in net explosiveness.
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: Now Syracuse number 35. Hmm. UNC only gets 10 and
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: a half possessions per game. That's 120th. Uh, offensive drives
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: per game right there. Syracuse is number 16 in drives
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: per game. Points are hard to find for North Carolina.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: I'll say that. They are number 99 in points per game,
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: but they are number 34 in defensive points per game.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: Something to pay attention to. Amari Odom is listed out
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: at quarterback. Nelson's been the guy. I think North Carolina's
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: missing a few defensive backs. Uh, They've got a receiver
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: that's suspended. Syracuse is plus 8.5. That's where the trends
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: and the model both kind of meet. And I'll tell you,
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: my favorite coach in this entire thing, out of all
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: of them, it's not Fran Brown, it's not Bill Belichick,
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: it's not Bobby Petrino, Vince Karras, the defensive coordinator for Syracuse.
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: He actually has this defense playing pretty well. Number 11
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: in PPA allowed per pass. Now, they're not great against
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: the run, but they are number 19 in offensive line
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: yards allowed, number 8 in stuff rate. And they're pretty
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: good against the pass. So, like, I think Syracuse can
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: do a few things to slow down North Carolina. Can
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: Malachi Nelson score on this North Carolina defense? This Belichick defense?
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: I think they probably can. Like, this Syracuse team... 3-3
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: against the spread, 2-4 straight up. North Carolina, I know,
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: is 4-2, and they've played a tougher schedule. Number 8
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: in opponent PPA. Number 1 in defense is faced. But
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: there's something that tells me this is going to be
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: a pretty tight ballgame. I like the direction that the
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: spread is going. I will go with the away dogs.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: Give me Syracuse plus 8.5 in Chapel Hill. And the
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: last game that we're going over, and we're talking Mountain West.
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: North Dakota State at New Mexico. New Mexico, a 4.5-point favorite.
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: Total of 41.5 on this, and it has come up
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: a point. New Mexico was a 3.5-point favorite. That total
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: has gone down from 42.5 down to 41. My stats
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: projected total likes the over on this. It's a 9
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: o'clock Central Time kick on the CW. Yeah, North Dakota State. Like,
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: pretty wild. Pretty wild. North Dakota State's already bowl eligible.
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: They beat Nevada 31-17 last week. New Mexico was 5-1.
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: They won ugly at Hawaii 21-10 last week. 16 penalties,
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: 3 turnovers. They were down 10-0 at the half. I
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: thought Jason Eck was going to absolutely destroy those players
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: that had that turnover belt. He was like, we are
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: losing you bleeps. It's a kid-friendly show here. But I
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: enjoyed watching that because he sets a standard. He sets
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: an expectation. Jason Eck is going to be coaching somewhere
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: else next year. New Mexico, Jack Lane out for the season.
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: The backup, Lobstein, was carted off at Hawaii. He's likely done.
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: Toa Fave went 5 of 10 for 59 yards. He
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: had two picks. The line is up a point. The
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: total dropped 5 from 46.5 to 41.5. New Mexico, 16-6
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: to the over in Mountain West games since 2021. That's
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: 22 games. On the side, there's no clean trend. Now,
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: my model has New Mexico minus 6.93, 47 on the total, 5.7
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: to the over. I've got 47.19 for the total. Power rating,
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: New Mexico minus 5.1. My model doesn't know about the quarterback.
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: The market does. I believe defenses are elite here. New
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: Mexico gives up 10.5 points a game. That's first in
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: the country. First in points per drive allowed. First in
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: takeaways at 3.5 per game. Yeah, there we go. So
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: number one in takeaways per game. North Dakota State is
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: number eight in takeaways per game. North Dakota State number
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: 34 in giveaways per game. New Mexico is number 21
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: in giveaways per game. Neither team plays fast. Right? Plays
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: per minute. North Dakota State's number 120. New Mexico's number 136. So,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know why my stats model has this thing
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: projected over. Like, it makes no sense. New Mexico is
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: missing their linebacker, Jackson Eck. They're missing their corner, Frankie
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: Edwards III. North Dakota State's running back, DJ Scott, is questionable. I...
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: I trust the under on this. And if I had
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: to go away... Now, why... Betting on New Mexico, I'm
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: not sure. Because this feels very much like a coin
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: flip game. Right? Both of these teams, by the way,
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: have not played strong competition. North Dakota State, number 126,
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: an opponent PBA margin. New Mexico, number 132. Like, I...
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: I don't see it. I just don't think... Like, New
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: Mexico's been really good, but they've also faced the easiest
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: slate of offenses... Of any team in the country. Number 138.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: That's dead last. But they have faced some pretty good defenses.
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: But I mean. They've been able to score. Like it's
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: pretty crazy. Number 10. In offensive points per game. Number
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: 1 in defensive points per game. Like this is. These
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: are just two good coaching staffs. I think that's the
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: easiest way to put it. But I still think this
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: is kind of a coin flippy game. And the fact
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: that this thing is up to 4.5. Now I'm going
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: to take North Dakota State. So North Dakota State. plus 4.5
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: at New Mexico. I can't wait for this one. This
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: one will be what you call a slobber knocker. And
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: in slobber knocker games, North Dakota State as a dog,
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: I'll roll with that, plus 4.5. All right, before we
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: wrap up the next 15, don't forget, of course, subscribe
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: to youtube.com slash wcepix. That is where I do my
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: week show or weeknight games. you'll find those over there.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: So for CUSA and Maction and whatever, all the way
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: through November, go ahead and check those out over there. Also,
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: don't forget about Buy Me a Coffee. We'll talk a
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: little bit more about that here in just a minute.
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: But let's talk about some of the biggest gaps on
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: the side. UCLA, my model says 23, market says 14. Kentucky, 6.3
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: points off. Oregon, 5.5 off. Both quarterbacks are out there,
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: so it is what it is. Kansas State, 4.2. Virginia Tech,
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: that one, you know, my model really likes Virginia Tech there.
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: Biggest gaps on totals, Iowa-Minnesota, 8.6 to the over. New Mexico, 5.7
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: to the over. Again, quarterback caveat, et cetera. Michigan State, 5.2
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: to the over. And on the other side, or underside,
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: excuse me, Rutgers and Northwestern about four points under. Colorado-Oklahoma State, 3.4 under.
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: Baylor and Kansas, three points under. Same caution as always.
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: My model runs over on 10 of these 15, so
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: just pay attention to it. We'll just see. I feel
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: weird about this time of year. There's some teams that
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: are fighting to get to a bye. There are some
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: teams that are clean, that are rested, that are playing
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: teams that are trying to get to a bye. I mean,
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: you've got teams that are playing their eighth straight week
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: of football, and you never know what's going to show up.
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: Injuries are certainly going to play a big part of this, etc.
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: There's just a lot to pay attention to. Pay attention
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: to these trends and whatnot. I don't know that trends
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: mean so much nowadays, but make sure and check injury reports, etc.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: Don't forget, Illinois and Boise are both rested. Their opponents
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: are not. Cincinnati coming off of the last second loss.
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: Pitt is 0-2 since losing their quarterback and have looked
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: just awful. North Carolina off of a rivalry win on
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: the road. Yeah, you got a lot going on. Of course,
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: if you want to put some of this to work,
• 1:12:54
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• 1:12:58
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• 1:13:00
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• 1:13:03
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• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: fun sheets and whatnot. I give you my official plays,
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: although the official plays were awful last week. But I'll
• 1:13:14
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• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: a lot of different things, my five factors rankings, my
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: power ratings, all this kind of stuff, right? So you'll
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: get a lot of things over there. But that is
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: going to do it for this week's show for right now.
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: 15 games, a lot of quarterback questions, a lot of
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: injury questions, a lot of things to figure out, but
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: also a lot of reasons to stay glued to the
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: couch from Friday night all the way through Saturday. If
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• 1:14:00
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• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: for week eight. Let me know where I'm wrong, because boy,
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• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: Follow me on all the socials, at GaryWCE. And with
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: that said, take care of yourself, take care of each other,
• 1:14:15
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• 1:14:19
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