Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - DON’T SAY YOU DIDN’T KNOW | Ominous Tech Stock Signs + Stock Market News 07 October 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - DON’T SAY YOU DIDN’T KNOW | Ominous Tech Stock Signs + Stock Market News 07 October 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Okay, we made it.
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: We had a bit of a technical hitch there.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: I just got this.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Live streaming isn't available at the moment.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: I was like no.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: So welcome to an hour of doom and gloom and misery where I will tell you why the world is about to end.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: In all seriousness, it's not that bad, but it's not looking particularly juicy here pre-market either, and I want you to understand why this is pre-market.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Okay, avert your eyes.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Tesla's ever so slightly green, though, and if you understand these things, you A make better decisions, you B stop making stupid decisions, and you C tend to make a lot more money, which is really what this is all about.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: So should we jump straight into it?
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I think we probably should, given that YouTube had you hanging in here for a few minutes while it allowed us to go live.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: So what the heck just happened?
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Well, in a nutshell and it is almost Christmas, so everything should be a nutshell to this time of the year In a nutshell, we had higher jobs data on Friday, so more jobs means what More jobs mean better economy, and whether or not that data was fabricated or not is a discussion for another time.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: We'll probably get onto that in a few minutes and at the last minute, at the last minute here.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Now we're buffering, now we're refreshing.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: There is some really odd stuff going on here with YouTube today Ominous.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Okay, hopefully we're back for your side.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: It looks good on my side, but then you know whatever.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: So refresh helped, it said.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: He said this committee is not in a hurry to cut rates quickly, and we were like he's got to say that we didn't really take it seriously.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Blackrock said we think the expectations on interest rate cuts are wrong.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: We think there is going to be some more cuts, but nowhere near as many as the market would have you believe, would have you believe.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: We had a firm CFO saying I think it's not going to be as quick as people think, referring to rate cuts.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: So he's also saying it's not going to happen that quickly.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: And then you have the CEO of Apollo Global Management ticker APO.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: He says it's not clear that rate cuts are needed, so the market's kind of relying on rate cuts, and that's the risk story here.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: So look at this.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: If you want to really understand how interest rates and tech stocks work, then you need to look at this particular chart.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: So what have you got?
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: You've got in delightful purple.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: I was going to say something inappropriate there.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: I shall hold myself back.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: You basically have the QQQ, the NASDAQ, and then in yellow, as it says on the tin, you have the 10-year yield, the US 10-year, but inverted upside down.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: You know, you're turning me inside out in all of that.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: Why inverted?
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Because they work in opposite directions and as this is coming down, let's get a yellow pen here.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: As this is coming down, what should happen to the NASDAQ?
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: Well, it should follow suit, because that's typically what it does.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: And when we had a big drop in the yellow line, like over here or over there, well, what happened to the Nasdaq Took a nosedive.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: That's how people are feeling a little bit skittish here this morning, on Monday.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: And you've got more.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: You've got more glorious news coming from the Holy Land.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Oil prices are up because, if you hadn't realized it, there is um sort of a several front war going on in the middle east um, according to israel, with seven different opponents, and um, that's having oil prices go up.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: But particularly because there's a concern that israel will strike Iranian oil sites, which could be port facilities, it could be oil fields, it could be tankers, anything and that Iran will retaliate by striking, maybe, saudi fields, because Saudi is sort of pretending to be neutral.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: But you know, let's face it, they're an American ally and they're therefore more on the other side.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: And there is the whole Muslim.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: You know the way that they've separated their religious groups.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: You know Iran, saudi, not on the same side.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: So that's the concern, and that could therefore drive oil prices up significantly.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: If it was a full blown worst case scenario, you're probably looking at $125 of oil if really the Saudis were to get involved.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Right, not hoping for that, not wishing for that, but that's a little bit in the back of people's minds and they're going well, that wouldn't be good, because what does that do?
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: Well, that adds more inflation to the mix, doesn't it?
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: And we put it all together in a moment.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: But let's look at what's going on.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: We'll put it all together in a moment, but let's look at what's going on.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Iran in itself isn't that?
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: It's a big oil producer, but it isn't that big a deal.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: But the issue here, danzo, is more about their retaliation that they would take out, you know, some of Saudi's capabilities, or Kuwait's, or, you know, hit the ports and that kind of thing.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Now, with all of that going on in the market.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: We're making money.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: We don't really care about what goes on out there.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Largely you want to learn how we do that.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: We're literally up 94% this year.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: Someone was complaining to me last week saying your portfolio is always at 93%.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you see how we do nothing like here and then we make money, and then we do nothing and then we make money.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: That's kind of how it works.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: But we made an extra percent last week on a VIX trade.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Come and join us this week at felixfrenzorg slash training for free.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: I will teach you for about 90 minutes our three-step rules, how to be automated, how we do this in just a couple of hours a week.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: Links down below and come and join me over there.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Now let me give you a few more positives before we package the whole thing together.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Typically around presidential elections just after the market yol the country, depending on your point of view and particularly around close presidential elections, this one looks close, at least from the outside.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: We tend to get a nice juicy rally, but we also get that miserable zone in October and we're kind of we're basically there.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: So you potentially have a little bit more choppiness here coming up.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: When's the pre-election dip Now?
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Basically now Elections on the 5th, if I'm not mistaken.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: We also have the big boys selling the Magnificent Seven.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: This is the prime book exposure.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: So basically funds.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: So this at the moment seems a possibility we might not get a rate cut at the next meeting.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: What happens if we don't get a rate cut?
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Well, let's scroll down a little bit more.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: We've already priced in, so we basically at the moment we need three cuts just to meet market expectations.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: If the Fed says no, say you're only going to get two cuts, what happens?
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: The one cut has to get priced in and a one cut pricing in means lower stock prices.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: It's very simple.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: So this is basically the bearish scenario this morning that the market's looking at.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Now I have a suspicion that the jobs data is, I was going to say, made up, but of course the correct word is seasonally adjusted.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: So it's they made it up and the US government.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: The US, I think they what was the number?
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Created half a million government jobs, or something like that, with the stroke of a pen, something like that.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: So that's probably got a lot to do with it.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: So I don't really believe the numbers.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: But for the moment we kind of have to deal with it because everyone else is looking at that.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Right Seasoned and adjusted.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: Indeed, that's a good one, phil, I might borrow that.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I appreciate you thinking that my, my, my internet connection is terrible, but it's actually not.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: I think it's a youtube issue, because they told me streaming wasn't available when I went online.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: But, um, I appreciate this is like the second time in about a week or so we've had this issue, so it might well be, uh, something to do on this front.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Actually, it says stream status is excellent.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: So, interesting, we'll have a chat with the bots at youtube about this.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Winston shoot the cables.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: Um, thankfully, he doesn't do that.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: No, no, he's a very good boy.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: He doesn't.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: He doesn't chew things.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, that's kind of where we are at this morning.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: So this is pre-market.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: Hopefully you caught some of what I just said.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: The government's taking down the.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: That's kind of where we are at this morning, so this is pre-market.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Hopefully you caught some of what I just said.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: The government's taking down the stream.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: That's entirely possible.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: If you look at the charts here, I mean look at SPY, look at the rally right or look at the NVIDIA rally here in trade region.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: It's still a pretty sweet rally.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: There isn't really anything that would freak me out here right now.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: It's just a question of are we going to slide into the election?
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: I think it's entirely possible.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: So what am I doing?
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: I am doing relatively little.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: There are a few oil stocks I've got my eyes on this morning, but that's pretty much it, because I just don't think it's like the greatest trading environment right now.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: We know pre-election October's look like this, right, so it's like the greatest trading environment right now.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: We know pre-election october's look like this right, so it looks like that.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: So you are here, so you want to enjoy this.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Looking at um dow jones usl sector, if that means anything to you um, and that's done quite nicely.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: Dj USL stocks, which is is that it Okay?
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: What was I looking at?
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: I was looking at I'll give you a few Imperial Oil.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: I was looking at IMO Very nice one up here, all right.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Very nice one up, exceeding the highs here slightly.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: These are not buy recommendations, by the way.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: I was looking at crgy, crescent energy company, class hs, also sexy, and look how that's taken out this whole resistance patch here on some pretty decent volume.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of interesting and triggered a buy signal.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Thank you, tradingview.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: So check out sorry, tradevision, rather Check out TradeVision for that kind of a call.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: I had another one here, mro, which is marathon oil.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: There's a few.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: I haven't decided on any of them yet Today.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: We'll play a little bit of a part there.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: But you see that's also trading here at the very top of that.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: So it might be worth positioning a buy just above that, and then we could have a little bit of resistance up here, but not that much.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: So it could be an interesting one.