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Sunday BEST BETS | College Basketball NIT & Crown Championships & MLB & NHL & NBA | 4/5/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this, Man, the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four that have
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man, with wookends slump that
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached a new peak. Actually,
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: I'm going to burn my browins hack Man, I don't
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: know what is going on with the Bruins. March eight,
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: it's March ninth. I think who even knows? Man, I
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: don't know what day is anymore. I don't even know
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: what data is anymore. Man, back with you, the worst
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: day that I could possibly have, Back with you as
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: I always am until I die, at least oh and two.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Yesterday and yesterday it did not go well for me.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this. I don't know what to
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: even tell you about this anymore. To the slump yesterday,
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: point other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: It's towed back with you with Toadstool Sports. It is Sunday,
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: April fifth, Busting the slump yesterday. Man, we went two
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: and aero on the show yesterday. I'm happy about that.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: We had the win with the College Basketball Crown game.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Pretty easy win with Oklahoma earlier in the afternoon. Oklahoma
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: led pretty much the whole game. It got a little
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: bit close. I mean it got really close in the
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: second half. But this is what I said, man, Like,
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: when you have a team coming off of an overtime game,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: they're used to the pressure, so they know what to do,
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: like they can handle the close game after they just
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: did it. So that gave Oklahoma an advantage I think
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: when the game got close and they were able to
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: pull away again win the game by double digits. Again,
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: they pretty much led the whole game, so it was
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: a good win there. And then Cincinnati Red's got the
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: win as well. I think they won the whole game
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: as well. First five came through as well. Rocker wasn't
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: as bad as I thought he would be. Rhet Louder
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: did what he was supposed to do. I mean, he
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: didn't give up any runs, so I'm happy about that.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: He wasn't exactly great, but hell, Texas scoreless, so I'm
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: happy about that. So we got the win. There. We
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: move on to today. I'm gonna have two plays today,
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: both in Major League Baseball, and I'm skipping everything else. Yeah,
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm skipping the NBA again. Man, It's just
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: how it is. I don't like what I say see
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: in the NBA. Man, just end of the season. It's
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: very difficult to figure out the like find actual good
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: spots in the NBA. All right, let's get to Major
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: League Baseball here, man. First game up is part of
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: a double header with the Cubs and the Cleveland Indians.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: They got rained out yesterday, so we're gonna go. I'm
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: gonna give I'm gonna talk about both games of the
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: double header right away here. Now. The pitching matchup that
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: I talked about yesterday when I broke this game down,
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: those two pitchers are not gonna face each other now.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: They're pitching in the separate games now today, so they've
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: been split up. Gotta keep them separated. Man Edward Cabrera
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Slate Chacone are pitching in the first game. Chacone was
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: supposed to bitch yesterday. Edward Cabrera was going to be
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: slated to bitch today's game. Now, as far as Cubs
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Cleveland's concerned, looking at the bullpen situation, US didn't, Well,
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: neither team used anybody yesterday, right, because obviously the game's
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: rained out yesterday. So what am I even looking at here?
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: So we have rested bullpens coming into this one again.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: It's more difficult to figure out what's going to happen
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: in the second game because you don't know what the
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: bullpen usage is going to be in the first game yet,
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: although sometimes you know you can look towards first five
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: inning plays in that second game without worrying about what
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: the bullpens are going to look like in this game.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Looking at what these teams do, I mean, I think
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: Chicago you got to give him a hitting edge here.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: Cleveland has had the better bullpen so far this year,
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: And I'm not really going to disagree with them just
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: having generally the better bullpen right now. So I think
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: that is the situation right now. So that is how
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: we'll start breaking this matchup down here. Edward Cabrera for
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: the Cubs, he's good man. I like him. He had
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: a six inning, one hit shutout in his first out
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: and against Anaheim five strikeouts, one walk. That's pretty good.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: His numbers against Clear are pretty good as well, in
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: twenty six at bats to sixty nine batting average six
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: forty one ohps seven to three strikeout walk ratio. So
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: I like Cabrera. I think he's a good pitcher. He's
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: got a good match up here for the most part.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Slay Chacone probably a bit more of a questionable picture.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: He wasn't good in his first out, and give him
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: six roned runs at Seattle at a picture friendly ballpark,
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: three walks in the mix there as well, didn't make
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: it five innings. That's not good. Chicago is not very
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: familiar with them though the Cubs. They're zero for seven
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: off in lifetime, no strikeouts, one walk. So maybe he
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: has a little bit of an advantage because when these
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: young pitchers haven't been seen before by the opposing hitters.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Sometimes they do have a little bit of an advantage here.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: I kind of like Chicago in this game, though, I
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: think Edward Cabrera is the more proven pitcher, He's more trustworthy.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: The Cubs did lose the first game of the series already,
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: so they could be a little bit more focused and
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: in bounce back mode here, so I don't mind the
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: Cubs in this first game. I leaned shorts the Cubs
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: yesterday with Ima Naga on the mound, even though I
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: think he's probably better than Cabrera, I think still the
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Cubs get the lean for me in this one. There
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: at minus one twenty eight now in the money lineup
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: for minus one oh eight eighty eight percent of the
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: tickets though ninety three percent of the cash. So it
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: looks like the Cubs are a little bit public, but
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: the money looks like it's coming in on them as well.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: As far as the second game in the series, Ema
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: Naga was supposed to pitch yesterday. He will pitch the
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: later game. He didn't dwell in his first out. He
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: particularly give up four and runs against Washington. Washington not
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: a very good team, but Ema Naga he has enough
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: of a track record at this point that I think
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: we can kind of ignore that start, and it wasn't
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: even really that bad. He had seven strikeouts, two walks,
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: that's not bad, went five innings. First start of the season.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: A lot of times you can just completely ignore it anyway,
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: because pitchers are having to get their bearings again to
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: start the season. His numbers against Cleveland you kind of
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: wish they were a little bit better though. Twenty seven
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: at bats to fifty nine batting average allowed, that's not
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: that bad, but seven sixty seven ops is a little
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: bit high. Three strikeouts isn't really that much in one walk,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, I think I still prefer emon
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: Naga here over. Who's he going on? We're we're looking Oh,
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: actually maybe not. Parker Messik is pitcher for Cleveland. What
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: am I saying here? I'm way out of it this morning, man.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Parker Messick is a pretty talented young pitcher for Cleveland,
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: got off, got his career off on the right foot
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: in the majors. Last year looked pretty good for the
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: most part, and he started this year with really an
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: excellent start at the Dodgers. The Dodgers the best offensive
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: baseball in my opinion, and they're particularly good at home,
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: and mess somehow won the game against them and shut
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: them out for five innings six innings, excuse me, five strikeouts,
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: five hits allowed, no walks, really good outing from Messick
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: there Cubs, only one hitter has ever faced before Bregman.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: I think Bregman faced him when he pitched against the
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Red Sox last year when Bregman was still in the
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Red Sox. Bregman was one for three, often with a double.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: But I think Messik does actually have an advantage here
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: over the Cubs hitters because he's a talented young pitcher
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: hasn't been seen before by them. So scratch what I
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: just said a little while ago. I like both starting
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: pitchers here. So my opinion in this game would be
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: to look towards under in the first five innings. I mean,
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: if you want to wait, because this game is not
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: until ten PM, I guess which is that doesn't That's
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: not right. There's no way pregame has that wrong yet
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: it's four forty pm. There's no way. Because there's only
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: one night game on Sundays. You know, it's a peak
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: AWK night game now not ESPN anymore because Sundays get
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: away day, so all afternoon games pretty much so that
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: the teams could travel to their next destination. So you
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: could wait, though, until you see what happens in the
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: first game, if you want to look full game in
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: this one and try to get the under seven and
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: a half and hope that the bullpens don't get used
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: that much in the first game, or you could just
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: fire on it right now. Under in the first five
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: innings would be my opinion there. But you're probably looking
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: at about a three maybe three and a half in
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: the first five innings. But I do like that starting
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup for both starting pitchers there, all right, the
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: next game up is gonna be one of my plays here,
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: let's do it, man, And we're gonna be on a
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: team that is looking for a sweep. Peer. A lot
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: of times I look to fade the team that's looking
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: for the sweep because a lot of times the other
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: team will go all out to try to avoid the
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: sweep and bounce back and whatever. But I don't like
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: the matchup for them. We're gonna go with Pittsburgh again, man,
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go with the Pirates. I know I wasn't
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: high on the Pirates to start the season. I thought
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: they were getting over hyped a bit, but I'm just
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: looking at these specific matchups. Man, You've got to admit,
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: the Pirates do have some pretty talented young pitchers in
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: their rotation here, and Schemes is the one that gets
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: all the publicity, but some of these other guys are
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: actually not that bad. Now, Yeah, Pittsburgh is looking for
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: a sweep. Peer won the first two games of the series.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: They've won four games in a row, so yeah, you
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: could argue that Baltimore is gonna bounce back here, but
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: I don't know if Pittsburgh's really gonna be looking ahead
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: to San Diego. San Diego off to kind of a
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: mediocre start, doesn't really look like that much of a
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: look ahead to me. Baltimore used four relief pitchers yesterday,
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: so it's not their bullpen is in the greatest of
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: shape here. Pittsburgh only used three. I actually think Pittsburgh
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: has the slightly better bullpen, at least if you're looking
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: at the start of the season here. Pittsburgh's bullpen has
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: been better than Baltimore's to start the season. Neither of
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: them have been great, but Pittsburgh's kind of in the
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: mid tier. Baltimore is sort of in the bottom third
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: a little bit worse. And then as far as offense
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: is concerned, both of them are kind of middle with
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: the pack. Pittsburgh's actually tied in tenth based on overall ops,
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: so Pittsburgh has actually had the slightly better offense, believe
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: it or not. As well, then we look at the
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup here. Chris Bassett is pitching for the Orioles,
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: and I know his numbers looked pretty good last year,
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: but I've talked about how I just don't really fully
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: buy into him. Man, Like his overall career numbers are fine,
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: but like his whip over the last two seasons with
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Toronto was a one point four to six and one
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: point three to three. That's too high in my opinion,
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Like he puts too many guys on base. And the
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: other thing that is not good about Bassett if you
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: look at his splits last year, he was way worse
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: on the road. His home era last year was two
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: point seven to one, Roady Ra five point four to seven,
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: so he was really bad on the road. This is
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: his first road start of the season. His first home
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: start was not good, and it was against a pretty
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: mediocre Texas lineup. He went four to third, walk four guys,
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: give it four, and runs on six hits, three strike guts.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: He really struggled in that game against Texas, was very
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: inefficient with his pitches through one hundred pitches. So I
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: don't like how the sets up for Bassett and it
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: gets worse because Pirates. The Pirates have eighty three career
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: at bats off him, They have a three seventy three
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: batting average lifetime off I'm in a one thy thirty
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: seven ops. That's some really bad stuff there. Twenty eight
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: strike got seven walks. That's a good ratio. But other
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: than that, these Pirates hitters have really really laid into
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Chris bassett Man. So I think the matchup looks pretty
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: bad for him. Meanwhile, Braxton Ashcraft is on the hill
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: for the Pirates here, not over the hill. On the hill.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: He was decent in his first start. I mean, he
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: probably wasn't as good as he looked against Cincinnati. It
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: is impressive though that he went into a hitter friendly ballpark,
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: went six innings, was pretty efficient with eighty seven pitches
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: held Cincinnati tour and runs. Cincinnati's an okay offense The
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: only concern is that he walked for guys. But sometimes
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: the nerves in that first game of the season can
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: kind of have you pitching a little bit shaky. So
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: I'm not as worried by that as maybe I would be. Otherwise,
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: Ashcraft is pretty talented young pitcher man. Like if you
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: look at what he did last year in his first
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: season with Pittsburgh, it was a mix between being a
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: relief pitcher and being a starter. His whip was in
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: the one twos, which isn't terrible. His era was below three.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: I mean it probably should have been in the threes
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: based on his whip, but still he had more strikeouts
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: than innings pitch. His strike out walk ratio is pretty
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: good at three, that's not bad. So I think Ashcraft
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: is actually good. I think he's a pretty talented young
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: pitcher man. And against the Orioles, they only have nine
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: at bats against, so they're not terribly familiar with them,
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: and they're only two for nine off him. And yeah,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Jackson does have a home run off him, but two
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: twenty two batting average allowed overall one thousand and thirty.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Oh ps, I'm gonna kind of ignore a little bit
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: just because that's being skewed by the fact that he's
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: given up a home run and a double to Alonso
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: in that very small sample size, two strikeouts, two walks.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: But he's the less familiar pitcher, and I actually give
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: him the nod over Chris Bassett here man, I think
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: the matchup is better for him because he's not that familiar.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: I think he's the more talented pitcher at this point
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: in their careers. He's younger, he's got way more upside.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: We pretty much know what we're gonna get out of
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Chris Bassett, and he doesn't pitch well on the road.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: So and as far as Ashcraft, he was decent both
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: home and away. He was slightly worse at home last year,
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: so I will say that, but it was it was
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: not like a he didn't have like a huge home
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: road dichotomy or anything like that. Is e Rara was
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: like three at home. So that's what we're going with.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: We're gonna we're gonna go with the Pirates in this
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: game to get the sweep. And if we look at
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: hold On, look at the market here, wherever the hell?
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: What are we looking at here? Ashcraft? Where are you there?
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: It is Pirates. Look at the they are taking the money.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: They're up for minus one fifteen, minus one twenty five,
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: fifty five percent of the tickets, ninety two percent of
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: the cash on them, So the money seems to agree.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: That's where we're going. Let's get back on track with
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: the baseball, man. We've been very meat and baseball to
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: start the season. I think we're about five hundred with baseball.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: He might be slightly at a loss. Got the win yesterday,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: Let's do it again today, man, Kyle, what's up? Thanks
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: for hanging out all right. Next game up is Dodgers
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: at Washington. I mean, the Dodgers are just the better team, man.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: I mean they're the way better offense, they're the better bullpen.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: I know Washington's looked okay to start the season. I
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: really don't think they're that good. And the Dodgers have
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: really wrecked them in the series. The Dodgers have outscored
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: them twenty three to eleven in the series. So it's
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: been a very high scoring series, Dodgers scoring at least
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: ten runs in both games. Now, you could make the
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: argument that the Dodgers might just overlook them at this point,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: and the Dodgers do have a World Series repeat or
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: whatever you want to the World Series rematch, let's say
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: up next starting tomorrow against the Blue Jays. That's pretty interesting.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: It's probably a bigger deal for the Blue Jays, though.
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: Blue Jays gonna be looking for some revenge probably looking
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: ahead there. I don't know if the Dodgers are gonna
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: be looking as much ahead here. But I don't want
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: to fade the Dodgers anyway here, man. I mean, they're
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: just too good compared to Washington for me to really
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: want to do it. But I don't want to play
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers either here in a spot like this. Now.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: As far as the matchup is concerned, yeah, I think
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers do have the advantage pretty much across the board.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: Although you gotta admit you know Sasaki is pitching for
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers. He is one of their shakier pitchers. We
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: could say that he was decent in his open er
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: against Cleveland. They didn't want him to go that deep
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: into the game. They let him go four innings. He
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: didn't throw that many pitches, one run allowed for four strikeouts,
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: two walks. So Dodgers look like they're kind of ramping
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: them up a little bit, But he might have a
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: little bit of an advantage here because the Nationals have
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: never faced him before, so that might give him a
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: little bit of an edge. In this game. He's gonna
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: be going up against Foster Griffin, who I don't know
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: what we're doing with Foster Griffin, man, I don't. He's
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: thirty years old. Before he made it one start this year,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: he had him pitched since twenty twenty two, he'd made
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: no starts in his major league career. I mean, I
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: think he's kind of just a body that, like Washington,
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: just needs a guy in the rotation. I mean, his
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: career numbers are not good with an era in the
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: fives one point three whip. He actually did have a
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: pretty good start against Philadelphia and his start this season though,
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: so I will give him that. That's pretty impressive. Philadelphia
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: is a pretty tough offense to go up against. It
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: was at Philly as well, and he went five innings,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: gave up only two urn runs, five strikeouts, no walks.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: So you got to hand it to Griffin for that. Man.
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: Dodgers aren't very familiar with them either. Only Otani has
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: ever faced him before. He's zero for one against him
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: with a strikeout, So Griffin might actually have a little
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: bit of an edge there, being unfamiliar, you know, as
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: insane as it might, you know, sound in this game.
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: I think you could make an argument for a first
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: five inning under in this game. I don't want to
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: do it, it seems dangerous, but both pictures might have
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an edge early in this game
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: because they're both unfamiliar to the opposing hitters. I still
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: don't fully trust either of these pictures really, especially not Griffin,
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: so that would worry. Maybe we do have seventy six
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets and sixty eight percent of the
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: cash on the over for the full game, which is
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: sitting at nine. Uh so the verse five is probably
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: at about four to four and a half whatever, eighty
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: six percent of the tickets and ninety one percent of
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Dodgers for what that's where they
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: dropped from minus two twenty to minus two h one.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: I do think the price is a little bit high,
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: Like I don't know if Sasak really should be favored
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: by that much on the road against anybody. So I
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: don't really see much value actually trying to lay the
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: price for the Dodgers or anything like that, so I
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: would be more focused on maybe trying to figure out
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: that total there, but I don't want to deal with
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: it at all. As far as the bullpen's, the Dodgers
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: used three relief pitchers yesterday. Washington also used three, but
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: Washington's bullpen is considerably worse. The Dodgers' bullpen wasn't great
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: last year. They're still maybe not that great, but they
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: did add I believe they picked up a closer at
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: least coming into this season, so may not even need
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: to use them against Washington though. Miami at the Yankees
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: Yankees on the verge of a sweet peer. I mean,
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: Miami's not that good man. Miami came into this series
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: at a five to one record, but that was because
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: they played the Rockies and the White Sox. The Yankees
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: are way better than those two teams. Don't really think
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: the Yankees are gonna be looking ahead to the A's.
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: That's not really a big matchup up next, but it
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: is possible they take Miami lightly. Although Miami almost beat
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: them yesterday. This pitching matchup looks really really bad from
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: Miami to me, although maybe it's if you look into
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: the matchup numbers, maybe it's not as bad as you
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: would think. Miami, by the way, they have started the
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: season really hot. They've they've been the second best offense,
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: and they've been top seven in bullpen in bullpen whips
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: so far, which is really ridiculous. But again, I think
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: those numbers are being skewed by the fact they've faced
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: really weak opponents, so it's really difficult to look into
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: these numbers too much. The Yankees actually have had really
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: good bullpen pitching so far this season as well, and
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: we know the Yankees offense is really good, so I'm
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: not buying into Miami like I think. I guess you
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: could potentially make the argument that Miami does have a
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: better bullpen than the Yankees do. I don't even want to.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if I want to make that argument,
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: but I think we have to admit that the Yankees
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: hitting is obviously better than Miami's. Yankees used a lot
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: of their bullpen yesterday, though they used six guys out
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: of their bullpen yesterday, so that's not great. Miami used five,
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: so bullpens are not in great shape coming into this one.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: Chris Paddock is pitching from Miami I am not a
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: fan of his little He got absolutely shelled in his opener,
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: gave up two of them runs eight ron runs on
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: eight hits to the White Sox. Probably you could say
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: he got a little bit unlucky though, because he did
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: have six strikeouts and no walks, so he really wasn't
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: putting a ton of guys on base necessarily. Like his
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: control was okay, but he was just way too hittable. Yeah,
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: he got kind of unlucky that everybody he put on
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: base scored. But you still can't put eight guys on
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: base in four innings, man, you just can't do it.
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: So I'm not sold on Paddock. But his numbers are
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: actually good against the Yankees, to believe it or not.
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: In sixty three at bats, seventeen strikeouts, three walks, one
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: seventy five batting average allowed, five ninety three oh ps.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: So interestingly, Paddock, this is not the worst matchup for him,
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: which is insane to think about because you have to
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: still give the edge to Max Freed as the starting pitcher,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: though Freed hasn't even given up a run yet this season,
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: although he pitched in two pitcher friendly parks so far
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: against San Francisco and Seattle. Still pretty impressive though. Ten strikeouts,
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: two walks, no runs allowed so far, very few hits
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: allowed so far. He's off and running man Yankees. Yankee
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: Stadium is a little bit more. I mean, it is
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: significantly more hitter friendly than Mosset Parks. But he's not
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: gonna do bad and this game do it. I mean
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: I would be shocked if he did. He's pretty much
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: dominated Miami as well. Like you talk about Chris Paddock
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: having good numbers against the Yankees, Yeah, well, Max Freed
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: in thirty eight at bats against the Marlins one two
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: batting average allowed, three to zero seven ops. Those numbers
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: are insanely low. Only eight strikeouts though, so he hasn't
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: really blown them away with the strikeout and two walks.
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: But still Freed has very much dominated these Miami hitters.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: You're probably laying too much of a price if you
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: want the Yankees the other at minus two seventy seven.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you wanted to do something like go
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: Miami under their team to you could take a shot
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: with that. Maybe, I don't know if we trust the
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: Yankees bullpen, though, you could get really granular with it
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: and go Miami first five innings under their team Aldal
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: specifically just go with Freed to do really well against them,
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: So you could do something like that. You're gonna need
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: him to hold them to about two runs over that span,
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: but maybe it'll happen. Ninety tickets, ninety nine percent of
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Yankees, they're two public man and
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: it minus two seventy seven. I don't really think you
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: could lay that price with the Yankees. I'm just trying
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: to find any way to attack this game at all.
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: You know, first five inning under in general actually kind
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: of makes sense to me based on those matchup numbers
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: I just showed you. It's just I really don't trust
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: Paddock enough. But I wouldn't really disagree with the under
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: in the first five in that game. Eighty four percent
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: of the tickets and eighty four percent of the cash
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: on the over. So the over is drawing public money.
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: I mean it always does in a game with the Yankees,
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: even with Freed on the mound, the over is still
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: gonna wind up getting public attention. So that's how I
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: break that game down. San Diego at my Boston Red Sox,
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: they've split the first two games of this year. Is
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: Red Sox kind of a you know, I'm not happy
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: about it. The Red Sox lost yesterday by one run.
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: They better get this game, man. Based off of the
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup, the Red Sox should win this game,
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: but I'm not gonna be putting my money on this one.
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: As far as the bullpen, San Diego does have the
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: better bullpen. They were one of the best in baseball
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: last year. They're still really good this year, and their
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: numbers bear that out already. This year, San Diego's offense
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: has really been the shocker though. Their offense has been
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: the worst in baseball so far. And I know they
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: play in a pitcher friendly park and whatever, but it's
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: still very shocking that with the amount of talent they
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: have in their lineup that they've been this bad offensively.
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're this bad now. Last year they
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: were pretty mediocre offensively. That does have to do with
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: the stadium that they play in. But we're in a
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: hitter friendly park here man, in Boston, so you got
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: to expect at some point there's gonna be some offense
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: potentially coming here, maybe not necessarily. With the starting pitching matchup, though,
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox I mean, they're kind of middle of
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: the road offensively so far this year. Their bullpen has
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: been a bit above average, I guess I would say
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: over the course of the season so far, so San
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: Diego has had the better bullpens so far. The Red
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: Sox have had the better offense so far this season,
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: and maybe that'll continue to be the case. Starting pitching
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: Walker Bueller is pitching for the Padres here. He's a guy.
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's just never been able to right the
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: ship since he's had his Tommy John surgery. He said,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: like a few seasons now where he's just never been
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: able to get back to what he once was. The
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: Red Sox, of course, did have him briefly. I'm not
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: a fan man. I don't think he's that good. His
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: first start this year wasn't particularly good at home in
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: a pitcher friendly park against San Francisco. He allowed three
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: runs of four innings, three strikeouts, two walks, really nothing
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: to write home about it all. There, He's done pretty
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: well against the Red Sox, though only four of the
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: Red Sox hitters have ever faced him before, although one
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: of them is Sonny Gray, so you could throw that out.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: He's not gonna be in the Red Sox lineup. Fifty
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: four at bats here, fifteen to two strike a walk
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: ratio is actually really impressive. One eighty five batting average
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: allowed very low and five eighty five ohps. Really, the
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: only thing is that he's allowed a lot of power
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: from these Red Sox hitters that have seen him. Contrero's
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: and Story have combined from three on runs off him,
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: so the Red Sox have been able to power hit
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: against him at the very least. But I also don't
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: trust Bueller. I know he has decent numbers against the
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: Red Sox hitters, but I don't trust him. Ronyr Suarez,
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: I think is the more trustworthy of the pictures at
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: this point. I would kind of ignore what his numbers
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: look like right now. He had a rough opening opening
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: start against Houston. Houston's offense has been lighting up the
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: scoreboard this season. Man, I don't know what it is,
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: but their offense has been one of the best in
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: all of baseball, which is pretty crazy because their offense
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: isn't really that stacked. He's still a decent command in
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: that start, three strikeouts, one walk, He just got really
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: tagged by the power hitting. You have two home runs
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: still managed to hold Houston to four and runs. I mean,
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: it could have been worse, I guess, but I think Suarez,
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: based on what we've seen out of him last couple
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: of seasons, I think he's gonna bounce back. I actually
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: think his style of pitching is actually good for pitching
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: in Fenway, because he actually doesn't he's not really a
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: fly ball pitcher. So I don't mind that against San
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: Diego's numbers have been pretty good. In seventy six at
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: bats eighteen to five, strikeout walk ratio two thirty seven,
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: average allowed, six hundred ops. They have a lot of
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: experience against somebody he's done pretty well against them in
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: the past, and they're not hitting well right now. The
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: money appears to be back in the Red Sox here.
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: They're up to minus one fifty eighty one percent of
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: tickets ninety six percent of the cash on the Red Sox.
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: I kind of agree with it. I don't want to
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: do anything with the game. The total is kind of
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: ridiculously high at nine. I mean, to me, that seems
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: a little bit too high, almost at nine, But I
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: know we're dealing with a hitter friendly park here. We're
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: dealing with a couple of pictures that you know, you
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: could consider maybe both of them to be untrustworthy. But
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I think Suarez will have a
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: bounce back here. So I think my preference in this
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: game would be the Red Sox side in this one.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox. They're not as bad as the record
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: looks so far so and could be bounced back time
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: for them here. Look at the bullpens though, like the
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: bullpen usage. Let me see, the Red Sox did use
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: a decent amount of their bullpen yesterday though they used
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: five relief pitchers. San Diego only used three. So you know,
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: if you wanted to limit it to first five innings
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: with the Red Sox, that might make sense as well.
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: You might have to look towards like a run line though,
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: ask him to be winning at the end of the
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: first five innings, like go minus a half run there,
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: That might be the better approach here. Actually, I'm not
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: gonna play the game though, but I'm just you know,
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: giving my opinion, my breakdown on all the games. All right.
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: Next game up is Milwaukee and Kansas City. Now, these
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: two teams played a double headery yesterday, so remember that
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: the bullpen usage is gonna be pretty high after that.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee used most of their bullpen over that span of
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: two games. Yesterday, these five relief pitchers going up against
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: Kansas City here. Kansas City also used five, so I
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: would probably want to fade the bullpens today. Even though
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee's bullpen has actually been good to start the season,
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: the Royals bullpen, despite what they did last year, has
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: not been very good to start the season. So I
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: think you got to give the bullpen edge right now
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: with the way these bullpen's have looked so far. Got
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: to give that edge to Milwaukee if you want to
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: factor in the bullpens at all in what you're doing here.
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee's got the better offense as well. I don't think
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: that's really in question. Started pitching. Kyle Harrison is going
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: for Milwaukee. I think he's good man. Maybe a mistake
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: that the Red Sox got rid of him right after
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: they got him. I've liked Harrison. I think he has
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: some pretty decent potential, and he looked good in his
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: first start. He held Tampa Bay to one on and
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: run in five innings, eight strikeouts in one walk. That's
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: pretty solid. Four hits allowed Tampa not a very good
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: offense though, But in neither is Kansas City's Kansas City
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: mediocre numbers against him only eleven at bats only three
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: of their hitters. I've ever seen him before, so you
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: can't really read too much into this small sample size.
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: He's got two strikeouts one walk against him, a two
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: seventy three average eight seventy nine ohps is a little
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: high because India has a home run off him, Jonathan
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: India man. He needs to go up against Kumar Rocker
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: and have the all Indian matchup at the plate there.
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: But overall, yes, I think Harrison will I think he
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: is in line for another decent start here. That would
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: be my opinion. I know we're looking at a Kaufman
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: stadium with the walls brought in here, but if you
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: look at the totals so far in the stadium, the
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: games have gone three and two to the under so far,
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: so three unders and two over so far. So do
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: with that information what you want to? I guess. Chris
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: Boo bitch is pitching for Kansas City. Had a good
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: season last year, had a decent start, well, I would
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: say a good start to open the season. It was
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: against a pretty bad Minnesota team. But he held them
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: to two hits and six innings, one on and run.
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: The walks were a little bit of an issue three walks,
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: four strikeouts. Overall, I do think Boobitch is at least fine,
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: although I think he kind of overperformed a little bit
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: last year against Milwaukee. He has really good number zone
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: thirty three at bats. It's not the biggest sample size,
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: but it's pretty big. Eleven strikeouts to one average allowed
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: two ninety three ohps. That's very very good. So against
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: a pretty good lineup like the Brewers, boo Bitch has
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: done really well against them. So my opinion in this
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: game is first five inning under. That would be the
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: way I would play this game. This one doesn't quite
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: make the cut for me, but I do like it.
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: Totals at eight for the full game, sixty two ticket,
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: sixty three percent of the cash on the under, so
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: a little bit of the money indicating on the under.
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: The number has gone down a little bit. It's headed
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: towards seven and a half here on the full game.
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: I don't want to deal with the bullpens after they
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: pitched two games yesterday, so I'm a little bit leery
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: of it because you got to go first five innings
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: under in my opinion here, if you want to play
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: the under, I mean, you could try to take the
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: shot with the full game and just try to deal
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: with the bullpens and hope both starters get you probably
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: through six innings in the game, and you could do that.
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: I think it's a little bit riskier, but if you
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: go first five inning under, you're probably looking at three
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: three and a half, but that is still probably I
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: think the best way to play this. The money is
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: also coming in on the Royals for what it's worth,
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: or at minus one twenty two fifty six percent of
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: tickets eighty nine percent of the cash on the Royals.
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: I don't really disagree with it. I mean, I do
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: think Boobach, looking at those matchup numbers that we just
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: looked at, I think he does have a little bit
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: of the upper hand here, and you got to admit
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: he is the more proven pitcher. Although I do like
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: Harrison as well, so you know, Boobach could outduel him,
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: but then you got to deal with the bullpens. I
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: think if I went to Kansas City, I'd probably go
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: first five innings with that too, because I don't really
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: like the way their bullpen has looked so far, and
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: especially when their bullpen's not rested, I don't really trust it.
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: So although Milwaukee's also unrested, these teams have split the
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: series so far, by the way they split the two
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: games of the doubleheader yesterday, for what that's worth, all right,
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay at Minnesota this game, and these teams, I
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: think they both have pretty weak offenses. Man, I don't
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: like Minnesota's bullpen at all. Minnesota five relieve pitchers used yesterday.
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: That's not great either. Tampa only used two. I think
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: you got to give Tampa a bullpen edge here, even
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: though if you look at the way Tampa's bullpen has
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: pitched so far, they've been the worst bullpen in baseball
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: to start the season, which is kind of ridiculous because
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: I think the talent that they have in that bullpen,
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: they're not gonna be the worst bullpen like when the
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: season is over. Man, I'm pretty confident in saying that.
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: But they haven't been good to start the season. Minnesota
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: has not really been good either though, but that's expected
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: because their bullpen is actually pretty bad. The hitting. Tampa
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: has actually had a good offense so far that they
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: are probably the better offense here, even though I consider both.
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: The offense is to be kind of weak, but Tampa's
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: been the better offense so far to start the season.
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: Nick Martinez, his pitcher for Tampa Bay, don't know if
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: I really try trust him fully. He had a pretty
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: good start in his opener against a good Milwaukee lineup,
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: though a Milwaukee lineup that was familiar with him too
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: because he was in their division with the Reds. Three strikeouts,
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: no walks in that outing, not a lot of strikeouts,
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: but didn't put anybody on base via the free pass.
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: He went six innings, allowed of two earned runs only
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: through eighty eight pitches. He was pretty efficient there. His
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: numbers against Minnesota or and mediocre and forty at bats
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: really good thirteen to one strike a walk ratio, but
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: he has allowed three home runs to them, although two
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: of them are from Buckston, so Buckston specifically does hit
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: him pretty well. So again, if you want a player
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: prop potential there hits plus runs plus RBIs Buckston does
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: pretty well in this matchup. Two fifty batting average overall.
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: Martinez is allowed to Minnesota's hitters in eight eighteen ops,
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: so you can do with that information what you want,
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: He's been mediocre against them. Simon Woods Richardson is going
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: the twins here. He was decent in his opener against
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: the Royals, give up two runs in five innings, two strikeouts,
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: one walk. He's been a decent picture in his career
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: so far. Still pretty young. He's not really a strikeout guy,
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: but he goes in there. He gives you decent starts
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: for the most part. His numbers against Tampa Bay are decent.
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: In nineteen at bats, four strikeouts, one walk, two sixty
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: three average allowed, but eight twenty six ops is a
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: little bit high. A lot of it is because he's
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: a lot a couple of doubles and a home run
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: to Mullins, but overall, yeah, it's it's a really hard
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: game to gauge because both pictures have mediocre numbers. So
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: it's like, what do you do with that? They're not
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: good or bad, you know what I mean. So it
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: basically makes the game a complete stay away from me.
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: Do where is Tampa Bay here? What are we looking
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: at here? The money is coming in on Minnesota pretty strongly,
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: so the market read is really indicating on Minnesota. So
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: do with that from what you want? Fifty nine percent
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on Tampa eighty eight percent of the
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: cash on Minnesota, so the money is indicating on the
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: twins side there. These seems to split the series so far,
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: with Tampa winning in a blowout yesterday, So you could argue,
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: I guess maybe Minnesota would bounce back here. You know,
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: I again, I think it's really really a toss up
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: in this game. I do think there's a lot more
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: room for Tampa to improve on the bullpen side of
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: things though, And you know, Tampa I think does have
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: a bullpen edge here based on the rest that their
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: bullpen has. So if I was gonna go with Minnesota,
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: I might limit it to the first five innings. But
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: even that, I just don't see a huge advantage there.
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: If there is any for Woods Richardson. I mean, he's
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: the younger pitcher, so I guess maybe there's a little
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: bit more upside there if that's the argument. But I
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: don't know Toronto at Chicago. I mentioned Toronto might be
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: looking ahead to they're huge series with the Dodgers up.
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: Next to the problem with that thinking is there on
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: the version of getting swept by the White Sox here man,
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: So I think Toronto is not going to overlook this game.
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: Now I think completely differently about it. If Toronto had
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: won both games in the series, I think, yeah, they
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: might be overlooking the White Sox and looking ahead. But
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: Toronto being the better team and having lost both games
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: in the series inexplicably, I don't see them overlooking this game.
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: So yeah, so I think you can kind of throw
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: away the look ahead part of this, where yes, that
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: series against the Dodgers is going to be really big
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: for Toronto. Now, if you do like Toronto, here a
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: little bit of an issue that their bullpen was pretty
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: used yesterday. They used five relief pitchers. The White Sox
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: bullpen is not good and they also used five, though
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: Toronto's bullpen is still a little bit more used yesterday.
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: Although White Sox have been one of the worst bullpens
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: in baseball to start the season, I think they are
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: a pretty bad bullpen Legitimately. The Blue Jays have been
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: in the bottom third as well, though, but I think
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: the Blue should improve a little bit on the bullpen
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: side of things. The Blue Jays definitely have the better
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: offense out of the two teams, although they haven't been
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: excellent to start the season, but they have still been
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: better than the White Sox, and I think that will
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: continue to be the case. Eric Lauer is pitching for Toronto.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: He had a really good season last year. I think
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: he's a good pitcher, and he started out this season
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: with a good start against the A's nine strikeouts, one walk,
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: very impressive in five and a third innings. Little bit
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: of a high pitch count there, with eighty seven pitches
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: in that span. Gave two hourned runs only three hits. Still,
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: he was impressive in that start anyway. Going up against
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: the White Sox, he actually doesn't have great numbers though
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: in seventeen at bats it's a small sample, five strikeouts,
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: no walks, but he's a lot of two ninety four
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: batting average in eight twenty four ohps. So he hasn't
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: really done that well against the White Sox in his career,
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: so that's maybe a little bit of a concern there.
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: Davis Martin is pitching for Chicago. He's not really very good.
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: He had an okay start in his opener against Miami.
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: Held him to three ear in runs, six strikeouts, two walks,
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: five hits allowed in five innings. Got a win in
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: that game, I think too, So that was the only
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: the only win against Miami until they ran into the Yankees.
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: His numbers against Toronto very small sample size, seven at bats,
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: but they're not good. One strikeout, two walks, four to
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: twenty nine average allowed one seven ops. So Martin, you know,
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: it's a small sample size, so you can't really read
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: that much into it, but the Blue Jays have been
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: able to hit him. I think the Blue Jays kind
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: of trying to find a way to play the blue
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: Jays kind of makes sense to me in this one,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: trying to avoid the sweep as the better team. They're
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: up to minus one sixty here on the money line, though,
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: which is a bit pricey. You could go money line
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: on the Blue Jays if you wanted to, like I
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: think they will win, but ninety tickets, ninety eight percent
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the blue Jays money seemingly coming
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: in a little bit on the over and the total
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: hasn't really moved much off of that eight. If you
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: wanted to go with the Blue Jays over their team total,
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: maybe that's a better approach there for the Blue Jays
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: to just get some runs here off of the combination
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: of Martin plus the White Sox bullpend. The Blue Jays
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: should be able to put up runs in that game
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: with that pitching, with the pitching that the White Sox
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: are putting out there, So maybe that is the best
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: approach would beat Toronto over their team total. That might
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: make the most sense in that one. Next game up
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: is gonna be my other play, and we are going
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: to a total in this one. And I found a
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: really good number on it. Man, I don't know if
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: you can find this number still available out here, but
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: we are gonna go first five innings under in Cincinnati
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: and Texas. I found under four at minus one ten
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: at I got I think I kind of got lucky
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: with it. It was what book was it at it?
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: I think it was at the book I want to
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: say it was at the book that starts with an
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: M and ends with another M and has a G
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: in the middle. That book I think was throwing that
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: number out there. The numbers are all over the place
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: too with these totals, Like a lot of times the
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: books they just you know, they don't come totally in
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: line with these totals. Let me see what the best
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: number is right now on the first five total here
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: that book still has that number available, believe it or not,
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: even though some of the other books have under four
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: at a much heavier price. You can find under three
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: and a half at an underdog price if you really
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: want to do that. But I might even pay to
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: go under the four though in the first five innings,
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: every half run does kind of matter because you know,
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: you don't have to the tie doesn't have to be
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: broken in the first five innings, you know what I mean.
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: Like the game of course can be tied at the
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: end of five. So but I like the under here. Man,
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: if you want to go full game under you could
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: do that too. But I worry a little bit about
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: the bullpens here. Cincinnati only use three relief pitchers yesterday,
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: so maybe it's not that much of a concern. Texas
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: used four. Texas, I mean, the bullpens have just been
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: a little bit iffy so far. Well, actually, Texas has
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: been good. Actually, I don't know, man, if you want
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: to go full game you could do that here. Texas
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: top six in bullpen not whip so far this season
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: is Cincinnati not much worse at thirteenth, so that's not
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: too bad actually, So yeah, if you wanted to go
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: full game under you could do that as well. Here
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: we're looking at a pretty pitcher friendly park in Texas. Here,
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: what are we looking at here? Let me see, you
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: know what, I wonder, should I switch this to full
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: game just because there are more options here? Let me
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: see if I do that, you know it's gonna lose, though,
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna stick with mine in the first five innings.
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: But you know, if you want to go full game,
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: you could definitely do that. You'd be looking at under
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: eight at a high price, so you probably have probably
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: be having to go under seven and a half though,
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: So I think the full was just a little bit
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: better value there on the first five innings. So we
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: see the money coming in on the under here, fifty tickets,
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: seventy one percent of the cash on the under. The
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: money is coming in on Texas a little bit for
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: what it's worth, although they dropped for minus one thirty
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: to minus one eighteen eighty six percent of tickets, ninety
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: five percent of the cash on Texas. So money is
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: coming in on Texas to some extent. But I like
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: the under in this one man, we're looking at what
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: I think is a really good starting pitching matchup Chase
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: Burns is pitching for the Reds. I think, get them,
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: you know, jump on this guy to make good starts
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: before he's totally you know, out from under the radar,
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: you know, because he's good, dude. He He's coming off
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: a one hit, five inning performance, no runs allowed against Pittsburgh.
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: He got a little bit wild. He walked three guys,
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: seven strikeouts. Though he's a really hard thrower, he gets
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: a lot of strikeouts. I think he's a legit pitcher man,
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: Like I think, before too long, people are gonna know
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: who he is. He only threw seventy eight pitches in
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: that start, too, so he didn't throw that many pitches.
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: That's a good sign. All of that is a pretty
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: good sign, except he was a little bit wild. But
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: he's also pretty much completely unfamiliar to Texas. Only Danny
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: Jansen has ever faced him before he's over one with
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: a strikeout off him. So Burns is pretty much completely
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: unfamiliar to the opposing hitters here. And I think he's
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: an excellent pitcher, So I like that aspect of it.
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Jack Lighter, who I think has
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: a lot of upsides. Still Lighter has really good stuff.
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: Still as well. It hasn't really panned out yet in
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: his career, but he definitely improved last year. Dude. He
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: had more of a complete season last year, and his
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: numbers overall wound up being pretty good. It's just that
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: he walked too many guys, so he's got to get
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: that under control. But I think he could do well
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: here man. His first start was good. He threw ninety
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: two pitches, which is a bit, but he held off
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: Baltimore to turn runs. At six in He's had eight
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: strikeouts in one walk, five hits lot so that was
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: a very good performance from him, so that's a good sign.
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: I think he looks like he's in good form right now.
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: The Reds only have thirteen at bats off him and
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: they have five strikeouts, no walks, two thirty one average
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: of five thirty eight ohps off him. So Lighter has
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: done pretty well against the Reds in a very limited
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: sample size. So I think both starting pitchers look to
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: match up pretty well in this game here man. So
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: under first five innings is my play there again, full game.
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't disagree with full game either in that one.
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: On the under the bullpens, you know, the bullpens are
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: not like that, tax and they're not horrible bullpens. Texas
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: is I think is going to be very good again
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: this year, so I don't hate that. And again it
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: is a pitcher friendly park as well, So that's where
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: we're going with that one, all right. Speaking of pitcher
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: friendly parks, these next two are not at all. Philadelphia
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: at Colorado Philadelphia on the verge of sweet peer. They've
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: outscore Colorado twelve to two in the series. Colorado not
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: even able to hit in their hitter friendly park. Man Philadelphia,
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, maybe they might be looking ahead to San
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: Francisco at this point, but San Francisco is not off
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: to a good start either, so I don't know if
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia is really gonna be looking ahead or not. But
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: you know, I think the side is a bit hard
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: to gauge in this one. Looking at the matchup, though,
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: I think you got to give Philadelphia pretty much the
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: edge everywhere here. I think they do have a slightly
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: better bullpen, even though I don't think either bullpen is good.
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: I think Philly does have the better offense. I think
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: there's no question about that bullpen usage. Colorado used five
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday, so that's not great. Philadelphia used only
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: three so Philadelphia's bullpen is in better shape at the
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: very least, but I still don't trust either bullpen, and
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: I don't trust these starters either. Taiwan Walker is pitching
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: for Philadelphia. He's not good. His first start was pretty
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: awful against Washington four and two thirds. He gave up
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: ten earned runs or excuse he ten hits, six earned runs,
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: had four walks and strikeouts, had to throw ninety nine
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: pitches three walks living up to his name there two strikeouts.
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: That's not good at all. His numbers against the Rockies
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: are fairly good, though, in thirty six at bats six
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: to four strike out walk ratio is not good, but
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: two twenty two batting average allowed six to thirty three
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: oh ps. Those are fine numbers. But I still don't
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: expect Walker to do much in this game. Really. He's
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: going up against Sugano, who was on Baltimore last year,
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: which I think was his first year in Major League baseball,
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: and he had a decent start to kick off this season,
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: not even going five innings though, but I think they
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: might have just been keeping his pitch count a bit
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: low there. He went four and two thirds, only allowed
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: one or a run against Toronto. That's not bad. Four strikeouts,
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: two walks, and that was the Toronto team that was
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: familiar with him from last year too. But this is
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: gonna be his first start ever in Corsefield, I'm pretty sure,
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: so I don't think that's a good sign. I guess
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: we could look to see if he did pitch there
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: last year. Let me say on no, he faced Colorado
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: in Baltimore last year, So yeah, this is gonna be
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: his first start in course field, so that could be
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: pretty questionable. Man, He's not used to pitching in this
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: high elevation here. That might be bad. Philly has basically
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: never faced him before. The only Garcia has ever seen
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: him before. He's one for three with a strikeout off him.
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't weigh that too much though. I know both
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: pitchers look like they have decent matchup numbers here, But
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: I would not want to be looking towards an under
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: in this one, man. I really wouldn't, you know. To
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: be honest, I think an over might make more sense here.
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: The number is really high to eleven, but it's high
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: for a reason. Eighty seven percent of tickets ninety nine
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over. But taking into
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: account the untrustworthiness of both these starters and the bullpen's
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: not being very good, I think you could see a
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: lot of runs in this one. Philly is down for
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: minus one seventy to minus what sixty five on the
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: money line for what that's worth, eighty six percent of
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: tickets ninety six percent of the cash on Philly. I
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: think Philly is too heavy of a favorite, Like I
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: would not want to lay the price with Philly Taiwan Walker.
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: This guy shouldn't be favored by this much against anybody
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: on the road in my opinion, so I would stay
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: away from Yeah, I mean I don't want anything to
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: do with the side in that game at all. But
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: perhaps Colorado will finally break out of their hitting slump,
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: maybe the slump will discontinue for them in that game,
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: and maybe you'll get some runs from both teams in
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: that one. Although Philadelphia's pretty much carried carried both games
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: to it over by themselves so far, So I mean
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: that's not out of the question again in that game, really,
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: although I don't think that's gonna happen again, But I
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: still think both teams are gonna combine for some runs
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: in that one. This time Houston at the A's in
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: this awful, awful Triple A Stadium. Houston put up a
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: ton of runs yesterday. A's put up a ton of
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: runs the game before that. We've seen a lot of
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: runs come home in this series, but both games have
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: been one side, with the A's winning eleven to four
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: and then Houston winning eleven or nothing yesterday. So this
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: is gonna be the rubber match here. Uh the bullpen's
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: Houston actually does have a decent bullpen. It looks like again, actually,
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: where are they at here? Yeah, Houston's actually had Actually
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: this is offense. Houston's had the best offense in baseball
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: so far, and the A's offense has actually really struggled
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: with I think the A's offense is not that bad,
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: although to start the season, you gotta admit they haven't
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: been good. The Astros their bullpen has been decent, not great,
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: but thirteenth so far. In bullpen whip, I look at
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: whip over at ERA because I think e RA could
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: be a bit more misleading. I think looking at how
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: many guys you're putting on base is more indicative, Like
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: if you look at era, it would tell you that
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: Anaheim's bullpen is actually one of the best. That's not
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: true at all. And then the A's bullpen, I mean,
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: we know that their bullpen's not good, so that's not shocking.
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: They haven't been good this year either. Lance mccullors is
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: pitching for Houston. He had a really good start in
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: his opener against my Boston Red Sox. Went seven innings,
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: allowed one ear and run, nine strikeouts, one walk, four hits.
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: Maybe the Astros crowd will stop threatening his life and
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: his family's life. Maybe he's pitching better. Man mc colors.
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: He used to be a good pitcher man, as I've
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: always been saying. He just had some surgeries and whatever,
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: and he hasn't really totally been able to come back
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: from that. But he's had some really good start still
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: since coming back. And it's a good sign that he
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: had a really, really dominant outing against the Red Sox.
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: So maybe he is entering a new era and maybe
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: he is gonna have a good season. I don't know yet.
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: This ballpark is not gonna be the best, though, but
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: his numbers against the A's are okay. In twenty at bats,
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: eight strikeouts, no walks two fifty average eight hundred ops
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: is a little high, but it's because it's a small
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: sample size. There are three doubles and a home run
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: in there from Jacob Wilson, but I think mccullors might
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: actually do okay here. He's going up against Jacob Lopez,
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: who had a pretty good season last year for the A's.
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: He's an interesting pitcher man. He's kind of bizarre, like
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: he does not throw hard, but he gets a lot
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: of strikeouts with his you know, crazy movement on his
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: off speed stuff. But he was out of control in
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: his first start. He wasn't that good against the Braves.
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: He had five walks, no strikeouts in that outing, only
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: gave up three on runs though, so it could have
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: been a lot worse. But again, he put way too
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: many guys on base six hits also in four innings,
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: So the fact that he gave him eleven bass runners
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: in that game means that he really got away with
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: only a liveing three on runs there. He should have
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: allowed way more. But then again, we know that Lopez
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: actually pitched pretty well last year, so that's the thing. Like,
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: he wasn't that bad, so that one start, you know,
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: might have just been shaky because it was his first
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: start of the season. His numbers against the Astros are
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: actually good in twenty six at bats nine to five
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: strike a walk though, so again that is too many walks,
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: but one fifty four average allowed four to forty four
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: oh ps. Those are not bad numbers from Lopez, you know,
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: as crazy as it might seem, I think an under
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: in the first five innings might be worth a look
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: in this game. The money is indicating on the under,
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: believe it or not, the totals at ten, and I
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: don't want anything to do with the bullpen, especially with
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: the A's bullpen, so I'm gonna discard the bullpens here.
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: Sixty eight percent of tickets, seventy six percent, sixty eight
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the over, seventy six percent of
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: the cash on the under in this one. But I
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: think both starting pitchers could potentially get you to an
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: under here, and you'll probably be able to find about
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: a five out there in the first five under. So
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: that might be my opinion in this game. But it's
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: definitely risky if you want to try to do that
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: in a ballpark like this and where you still don't
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: totally know what you're gonna get out of these starters here.
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: Houston down forms one twenty one to minus one seventeen
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: on the money line, eighty seven percent of tickets, ninety
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: four percent of the cash on Houston. Really really difficult
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: to gauge the side here, man. I don't have a
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: good opinion on the side in that game, because again
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: it's very difficult to predict the starting pitching and whatever.
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: I do think Houston, at least for now, they do
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: have the better offense, and I think their bullpen is
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: better as well, So Houston does have some advantages in
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: that game. But it is also kind of a bounce
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: back spot for the A's after they got obliterated yesterday.
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: So it's very very difficult to figure that game out.
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: Bullpen usage Houston on these two relief pitchers yesterday, so
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: that's good. That's a relief for them. The A's bullpen
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: use four, so that Houston bullpen definitely has an advantage
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: in that game as well, in my opinion, So I
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: do with that information what you want. Mets at San Francisco.
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: I do kind of like this game. I do have
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: an opinion on this game. Hasn't made my card, but
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: the Mets are on the verge of a sweep peer
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: and they have dominated the series nineteen to three combined
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: score for the Mets. There. Mets are good, there's no
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: about it. They might take service. Actually, the Mets lost
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: the first game this series, my mistake, seven to two.
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: So they've dominated the last two games, so I have mistake.
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: It's a four game series. But still after those two games,
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: they might overlook San Francisco a little bit. Here, San Francisco,
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: you're probably gonna get a good effort out of them
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: here after those two outings. After those two games San Francisco,
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: I think they do have the somewhat better bullpen here.
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: They used three relief pitchers yesterday. The Mets did only
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: use one, though, and it was Tobias Myers, who was
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: kind of an innings eater that they got from Milwaukee.
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: So the Mets do have the more rested bullpen here.
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: Looking at the bullpens to start the season, the Mets
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: actually have been the better bullpen so far to start
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: the season. I think their bullpen's not bad, So I
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, I think overall, though, I think the
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: Giants might have the better bullpens slightly, but right now.
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: The Mets have been the better bullpen and they're more rested,
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: so I guess you might have tilt the scales to
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: them a little bit there. The Mets, I do think
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: they have the better offense. I think that's not a question.
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: There were top ten offense ops wise to start the season.
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: The Giants are bottom two with the Padres, which is
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: pretty pathetic. Not that we expected the Giants to be
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: good offensively, but I like the Giants in this game anyway. Man,
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: if you want to go first five innings, you could
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: do that too. And if you want if you're worried,
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: you know, worried about the Giants bullpen a little bit.
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I think the Mets do have a little
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: bit of a bullpen edge. But if you wanted to
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: go Giants full game, I don't hate that either, because
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna really give you an effort to
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: try to win this game and even up the series code.
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: I Senga is pitching for the Mets, and you know,
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: I don't trust him. His whip last year is awful.
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: He put way too many guys on base. He's been
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: okay though over his career. He does strike out a
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: lot of guys, but he is wild. He walks too
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: many guys and that's the problem. Same thing happened in
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: his first outing where he actually took a loss against
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis, but it wasn't really his fault because he
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: got no run support. But he give up two on runs.
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: At six innings. He gave four hits. None of that
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: is bad at all. Nine strikeouts really good, but he
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: walked three guys, So again, his walk numbers are bad,
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: and his numbers are not good against the Giants in
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: his career in thirty nine at bats more walks than strikeouts.
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: That's bad. Nine walks, eight strikeouts. Matt Chapman is two
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: home runs off him and overall he's a lot of
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: two eighty two average and nine to fifty five ohps
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: to the Giants. So I don't trust Senga and he
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: doesn't match up well against the Giants. Logan Webb is
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: pitching for the Giants, and I think people are gonna
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: look at Web versus Senga here and see that the
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: era is like way worse for Logan Web so far
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: this year, and the public is gonna want to be
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: on the Mets, especially after seeing what they did the
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: last two games too, But I'm gonna disagree with that, man.
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, Logan Webb has been a staple of this
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: Giants' rotation here, and he's been particularly good at home
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: while while he's been, you know, a Giants pitcher. So
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna read much into these first two starts
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: of the season, man. I don't think that they indicate
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: that much. He's walked too many guys because in his
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: last outing he had four walks against San Diego, but
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: he did hold them to three earned runs and get
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: a win in that outing. But Webb is like a grinder, dude.
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: He's also one of the few guys out there who
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: still gets you deep into games, which is another reason
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: why I don't really hate the Giants full game here,
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: because web Is typically gonna go at least six innings
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: for you. Like the Giants, they let him go one
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: hundred pitches pretty consistently. They just let him go out
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: there and throw, man. But overall, his numbers aren't really
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: that bad this season. Twelve strikeouts and eleven innings is
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: pretty good. Five walks is too many, I know, but
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: that's because his last down and he just had some
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: control problems, but he really hasn't allowed that much by
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: way of offense in these two outings. And his first
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: start was he gave up six ordred runs against the Yankees. Dude,
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: the Yankees are a really good offense. And seven strikeouts
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: one walk that's still not that bad. And specifically against
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: the Mets, he has been fairly good in eighty eight
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: at bats, really good twenty one to three strikeout walk
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: ratio two fifty average, allowed six twenty seven ops. So
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: I like Web to have the upper hand here. I
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: like the Giants in this game. Money is is agreeing
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: with me on this. The Giants did drop a little
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: bit for minus one twenty two to minus one sixteen
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: sixty two percent of tickets, ninety percent of the cash
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: on the Giants. I agree with that cash disparity there.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: I do like the Giants here. First five innings makes
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: sense to me. Like I said, full game, you could
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: go full game as well if you want to. I
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: think first five innings might be slightly more advantageous for
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: the Giants there. But you know, yeah, I mean I
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: just worry a little bit that the Mets might have
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an advantage in the bullpen. There
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: right now. Uh so first five innings Giants is probably
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: I think the best approach in that one. All right,
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: Seattle at Anaheim. Seattle lost one to nothing yesterday. This
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: has been a very low scoring series, even though not
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: in Seattle, so that's pretty weird to see the series
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: being that low scoring outside of Seattle's pitcher friendly confines there.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: Maybe Seattle will bounce back from that ugly game yesterday.
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: I think Seattle has the better offense and the better
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: bullpen here man and they have a pretty rested bullpen.
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: They really have not used their bullpen much at all
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: throughout really the entire season, so I like how Seattle's
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: bullpen sets up here. Anaheim used way more relief pitchers.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: Yes today they used five compared to Seattle's one, So
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: Seattle does have a pretty big bullpen edge. I think
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: in this game, better bullpen and more rested. I'm gonna
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: give them the better offense here as well, even though
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: they haven't really been great so far this season. They
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: got Luis Castillo pitching. He is better at home though,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: but basically all the Mariners pitchers are better at home.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: He pitched really well against the Yankees. We had a
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: win on the under in that game on the show here,
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: he went six shutout innings against the Yankees and his
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: opener and there win against I think that was the
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: yankees only loss on the season. He didn't get the win,
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: but the Mariners got the win late in the game.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: But Castillo was good. He went six innings, three hits, allowed,
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: no runs, seven strikeouts, two walks. Now I know he's
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: going out on the road here. His numbers are decent
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: against the Angels overall, one hundred and thirty two at bats,
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: so they've seen a lot of them. He has walked
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: too many, though, forty strike outs and seventeen walks. That
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: is definitely too many walks, but a two twelve average allowed,
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: so they haven't been able to hit him particularly well.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: Seven to eleven ops is a little bit high, but
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: it's not like egregiously high. So overall, I think Castillo
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: matches up Okay, he's going up against Ryan Johnson, who's
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: a guy who we still don't really know much about.
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: We still I don't think we can really predict Johnson
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: very well here. He's only twenty three years old. His
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: start to his major league career has been kind of rocky,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: but he does have a lot of strikeouts. He's been wild,
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: he's walked too many guys, but his strike out number
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: has been good. But he's also a lot way too
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: many hits though he's been way too hit a ball.
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: So I don't know what we're gonna get out of
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: Johnson here. Man, he had a rough opening start against
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: the Cubs to start this season, went three and a third,
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: give up six roned runs, seven hits, four walks, only
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: two strikeouts. None of that was good at all as
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: numbers against the Mariners. They've seen him four at bats
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: worth and they have three hits off him, no strike outs,
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: in one walk, So it's not a huge sample size,
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: but he has not succeeded in a very limited sample
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: size against them, So you know, I think the Mariners
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: do have the upper hand in this game. I wouldn't
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: disagree with the Mariner's side here, but they're a bit
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: hea heavily priced here, down for minus one seventy to
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: minus one sixty four, ninety one percent of tickets, ninety
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash on the Mariners. The money.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: Kind of agreeing on the Mariners here, but yeah, I
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: don't know. It is a high price and the total
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: is pretty high at nine, which is interesting. You know.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: I could see the argument for the for the total
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: for going over because yesterday's game was solo scoring, but
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: because you have Seattle with a pretty good pitcher on
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: the mound and a very rested bullpen, I just don't
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: really see it as far as that is concerned. And
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: the money is coming in on the over though, for
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: what that's worth, I don't really see it though, So
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: this game is a stay away. I mean I do
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: have a slight lean into Seattle in that game. You know,
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: if you wanted to go money line on it, I
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: guess you could, but it's a pretty high price there.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: You could like make your own minus one run line
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: and at least you're getting nine innings of at bats
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: guaranteed from Seattle. But I don't love it. Atlanta at Arizona.
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: Atlanta lost to Arizona yesterday two to one. I thought
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: Atlanta would win the game. It was close. Atlanta's been
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: good to start the season. Man. They've been the best
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: bullpen in baseball to start the season, kind of surprising,
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: and their offense has been good as well, top six,
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: so they've actually been better in both aspects. Of the
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: game over Arizona. Arizona's bullpen is terrible. We do know that,
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: so Atlanta definitely has the better bullpen here. That's not
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: in question. Arizona should still have a pretty good offense though,
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: so it's kind of shocking that Atlanta has been the
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: better offense to start the season. Maybe that won't continue.
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: Atlanta only is one relief pitcher yesterday for seven pitches,
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: so their bullpen is very intact. Arizona used four, So
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: Atlanta actually has a pretty huge bullpen edge in this game.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: So that is definitely something to take into account here.
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: Martine Perez is gonna be pitching for Atlanta here. You
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: got to hand it to Perez man. I mean, I
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: haven't really been a fan of Perez, but you know,
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: at the age of thirty five, he's still going out
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: there and pitching and being a serviceable pitcher out there,
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: so you gotta give him credit for that. I guess
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: he's never been great. He's always been, you know, a
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: pitch to contact type of guy. Doesn't go out and
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: blow guys away. But that's more helpful when you're up
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: there age because you don't rely on your velocity, you
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: rely on your ability to locate. He had a decent outing.
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: I think this might have been a bullpen outing. In
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: his first outing against the A's here, he went four
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: and a third, only give two hits, didn't allow any runs,
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: three strikeouts, no walks. He was pretty good against the
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: A's and he was very efficient, only throwing forty seven pitches.
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: So Perez did look good in that outing against the A's.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: Against the Diamondbacks, he's got pretty good numbers against him
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: in his career. Eighty six at bats, two PHO nine average,
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: allowed six to seventy one ops. That's pretty good numbers.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: The only bad number in here is the strikeout walk
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: ratio thirteen to eleven, but again he doesn't strike out
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: that many guys, although that is kind of a high
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: walk number there. But other than that, his numbers are
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: pretty decent against Arizona, although this is a hitter friendly park. Here,
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: he's going up against Brandon Fott, who didn't have a
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: good season last year. But with Fot it was a
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: he had an extreme home road disparity last year. He
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: was really good at home where he is tonight or
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: today three point twenty four e er right at home
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: seven point seven one on the road. His numbers were
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: just it was probably the most extreme home road splits
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: you'll ever see last year, which I don't even get it, man,
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: I don't even understand how that happened. This year, he
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: gave it five on runs in a start at home
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: to Detroit, but he wasn't really that bad in that outing.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: He only allowed six hits, one walk, three strikeouts, so
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: he got a little bit unlucky that, like most of
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: the base runners that reach scored against them. Usually you
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: don't see that many of the base runners score against
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: the Braves. He doesn't have good numbers though. It's seventy
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: two at bats sixteen to six strike a walk ratuo
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: is okay ish, but three zero six average, eight thirty
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: one ops allowed that's not good. So yeah, I kind
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: of look towards Atlanta on this one. Man. I think
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: all of those things combined, like, I'd make it a
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: full game lean if I wanted Atlanta here though, because
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: you want to include that big bullpen edge that I
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: think they have. Have eighty percent of the tickets and
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: cash on Atlanta there at minus one oh six. I
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: think people might not trust Martin perezl The people might
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: see that he has a zero era and see that
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: fots is seven and draw the wrong conclusions. That might
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: be the case as well. You know, I don't have
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: a good opinion on the game though in general. And
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: then I already talked about the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland doubleheaders.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: You can go check out what I said about that
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: second game of the double header there. But I like
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: the first five under in that game generally, and then
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: the final game the Petecock Sunday Night game, so we
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: might be able to handicap the Sunday night games the
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: same way going into Monday. You know where I look
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: to fade the teams that were involved in the Sunday
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: night game. We have a stacked baseball card tomorrow, man
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: or board. I'm used to Monday having not many baseball games,
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: but that's not the case tomorrow. So we'll look then
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: after we see what happens tonight. But you know, those
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: teams on the quick turnaround time tend to be at
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a disadvantage, so that's something to
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: be aware of that. We still do have a Sunday
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: night game, it's just on Peacock instead of ESPN. Now
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: it is Saint Louis and Detroit. Now, I think Detroit
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: is a significantly better team overall. Detroit is looking to
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: get the sweep here now because it is a home
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: game on a big televised, isolated game, I think that
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: might keep Detroit from maybe overlooking Saint Louis, but it
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: is possible they do because they've dominated the series. They're
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: won by a combined fifteen to six over the two
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: games in the series. Now, their next game is the
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: next series is against Minnesota, so it is a divisional series.
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: Maybe they're gonna be looking ahead to that a little
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: bit of the Minnesota's not having a good season and
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: not expected to be good this year, so I don't
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: know if that's gonna be the case or not. As
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: far as the bullpens, Detroit used a lot of relief
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: pitchers yesterday. They use five, so that is not helpful
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: to them. I think Saint Louis has the worse of
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: the two bullpens, but they did only use three relievers yesterday.
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: But still I don't like Sat Lewis at all, so
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: I still think Detroit might even have the better bullpen,
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: even with arrest disadvantage, although I think neither bullpen has
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: been that good so far, Detroit's actually been bottom third
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: so far and Saint Louis has been in the bottom
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: four overall. So yeah, Detroit does still have the better
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: bullpen though, though it's not a huge advantage, especially when
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: they're at a bit of a rest disadvantage there. Hitting wise,
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: Detroit I believe has the better offense. I think Saint
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: Louis has been pretty bad. Where are they at here?
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis is in the bottom third? Here, where's Detroit at? Yeah,
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: Detroit's in the top third. So yeah, Detroit, as expected,
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: they have the better offense, but I think you know
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: that's gonna bear itself out over the course of the season. Anyway.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: This is an ugly pitching matchup though. Kyle Lay he
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: is pitching for the Cardinals. I don't know what you're
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: gonna get out of him. And he did make basically
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: a full start in his first outing five innings pitch
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: against the Mets. Wasn't great. Give up four and runs,
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: one strikeout, two walks. I mean, that was serviceable enough
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: to keep his team in the game, though, so I
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: guess give him credit for that. He didn't throw that
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: many pitches seventy nine pitches, so you know, he wasn't
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: horrible against Detroit. They only have nine at bats against him,
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: no strikeouts, no walks, three point thirty three average, eight
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: eighty nine ops, so it's a limited sample size, and
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: then been able to do some damage against him. We
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: don't know how long he's gonna last in this game,
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: but we also don't know what Detroit is gonna do
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: with Keeter Montero, who he was like kind of an
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: opener last year sometimes and sometimes he was coming out
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: of the bullpen. I mean, he's just a guy that's
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: kind of like last guy up in the rotation type
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: of guy, you know what I mean, Like you need
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: an arm just to throw in the rotation, to finish
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: off the rotation. That's basically him. He's never been particularly impressive,
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: although he is still young at twenty five, and he
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: hasn't been horrific. Like his numbers are just all very
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: mediocre for the most part, but you know, kind of
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: consistent mediocrity from him. His numbers against Saint Louis are
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: not particularly good. In fifteen at bats three point thirty
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: three average allowed, eight seventy eight ops, two to two
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio. Here, you know, the starting pitching
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: is not great in this one. Really though, I would
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: go over in this game probably. I think both bullpens
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: are kind of fadeable here as well, so I think
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: over makes the most sense to me in that game.
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: Seventy four percent of the tickets and ninety percent of
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over there, Detroit is a public side.
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: For what that's worth. Seventy eight percent of tickets, sixty
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash on them, sitting at minus
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: one thirty five on the money line. Do with that
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: information what you want. So it looks like Saint Louis
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: appears to be the side that the market is indicating
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: on right now. But my preference in that game would
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: be over the total. All right, I'm gonna come back
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: and then we're gonna do the rest we're gonna do. NHL,
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: it's a small NHL board, it's a pretty big NBA board.
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: I don't really have an opinion on either of the
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: on any of that. Actually, NHL is bigger than I thought.
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: Aready looked at all the games. I just don't love
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: any of these games. And then we got to talk
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: about college basketball. We have two championship games in college basketball,
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: so I'm going to talk about those in a second.
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: When I get back, I'll be right back. It's going
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: to be a long, long show here, man, y alright,
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: let's do this. We got the UH. I saw some
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: of the college basketball highlights on there from UH that Michigan,
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: Michigan and Arizona game that might have been a bit
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: of a letdown for people yesterday. Though. I need Michigan
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: to win for my bracket, of course. So our bracket
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: is still fairly intact with our champion now being a
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: favorite in the championship game tomorrow night. But we'll talk
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: about that tomorrow. I have my concerns about it, and
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: I might give out a play in that game that
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: is not going to be on the Michigan side. So
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: all right, let's talk about NHL here, Man, we got
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: a lot going on here. I'm gonna close some of
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: these tabs here, clean things up a little bit. We
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: have some afternoon NHL NHL coming towards the end of
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: the season. Man, it's crunch time. Minnesota at Detroit is
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: the first game up in this TNT, HBO, Max True
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: TV doubleheader here. Minnesota, I mean, they're more secure in
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: their playoff spot, so that's kind of where I start
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: this handicap. They're coming off a blowout win yesterday over Ottawa,
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: so it's kind of a similar setup in this game
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: to yesterday's game, where I leaned towards Ottaway yesterday because
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: Ottawa needed the game more. I think they were a
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: bit of a home underdog there. Minnesota still just easily
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: got through them, though, but now you know after that,
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: Minnesota again they really don't need this game. Detroit does,
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: so again it's gonna be a situation where the home
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: underdog needs the game more. Detroit. I believe they're fighting
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: for a playoff spot. They're not in the playoffs currently.
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: They took a bad loss yesterday to the Rangers. Now
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: the problem with Detroit. I lean to Detroit in this
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: game based on the motivation and the fact that you're
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: getting a highly motivated team as a home underdog. But
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: the problem is Detroit's returning on from a road trip.
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: They've been on the road since March thirty first, so
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: not the longest road trip, but still, I mean it
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: worries me a little bit. But they've stayed kind of
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: close in the area. They only went to Pittsburgh, Philadelphia,
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: New York, so I'm not too worried about that. Both
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: teams played yesterday. Still a situation where Detroit is playing
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: a fourth game in six days, though, all in different cities,
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: which is not that easy to do. So I'm not
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: gonna get that with this one. But I like Detroit
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: in this one. That's the way I would play it.
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: If I was gonna play this game, I would play
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: Detroit on the money line. Fifty four percent of ticket,
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: sixty percent of the cash on Detroit, Minnesota sitting at
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty six on the money line. All right,
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: dirty sock, what's up? Happy Easter? That's right? How could
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: I forget? Yes, Happy Easter to all of you. Hopefully
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: we don't take an egg as far as our two
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: plays today. Man, all right, we have Florida at Pittsburgh here.
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: This is a weird matchup because Florida they're pretty much
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: eliminated whatever. Pittsburgh is pretty safely in the playoffs, I
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: would say at this point, I believe. But Florida just
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: lost nine to four yesterday in this same matchup to Pittsburgh,
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: so this there could be room for a zigzag here. Man,
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: that was an ugly performance for Florida yesterday. You lose
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: nine to four, man, I mean, you're gonna probably want
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: to bounce back and give a better effort in the
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: next game. Pittsburgh might just look right past Florida after that,
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: after such an easy win yesterday, they might just not
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: take them seriously this time. Now Pittsburgh doesn't have a
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: big game on deck. It's only against New Jersey. So
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: I would like it more if Pittsburgh had like a
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: big look ahead or something, but I still would lean
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: slightly to Florida. Here they're about the same price that
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: they were yesterday. I think Pittsburgh was about minus two
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: forty yesterday, pretty much the same here. It's at minus
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: two thirty two, up from minus two twenty eight and
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: nine percent of tickets ninety eight percent of the cash
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh. I would grab Florida on the puck line
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: if I was gonna do anything with that, Just grab
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: Florida to keep this game close. That would be my
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: only real way to look at that game. But I
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: don't feel great about it either, So that's just my
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: opinion on that one. Charles, what's up. Happy Easter to everybody,
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. Everybody, h Boston at Philadelphia my
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: Boston Bruins on TNT, HBO, Max True TV Bruins. I'm worried, man,
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: they might miss the playoffs. I mean, their stretch run here,
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: it's very, very difficult. The Bruins needed to win last night, dude,
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: Like they had this game. They this game. The Bruins
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: kind of dominated this game, dude. Last night a really
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: tough game against Tampa Bay. The Bruins won sixty nine
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: percent of the face offs. You never see that, and
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: then usually when a team does that, you don't see
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: them lose the game. But that's what happened. There's an
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: empty net goal at the end. The Bruins are winning
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: the game one nothing into the third period. So yet
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: again the Bruins can't hold on to a lead against Toronto.
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: And the game was really really close too. So now
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: the Bruins are coming off of that yesterday. I don't
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: like it at all, and they got Carolina on deck.
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: This is bad, dude. And the Bruins are not a
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: good road team, and like most of these remaining games
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: are on the road, they're gonna miss the playoffs. Dude.
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: This is really fucking bad. And Philadelphia is in the
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: playoff hunt as well. So you know you're gonna get
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: motivated Philadelphia team here. They're only coming back from playing
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: at the Islanders and they didn't play yesterday, So Philadelphia
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: has a rest advantage because the Bruins played yesterday and
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: have to travel, Philadelphia does not have to travel. Although
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia is coming out of a big win against the Islanders,
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: that would be my one concern here, But everything else
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: is pretty much indicating on Philadelphia in this one. And
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: they're an anti public favorite here as well. Down for
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: minus one forty five to minus one thirty six. The
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: public is pouring it in on the Bruins seventy percent
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, only fifty one percent of the cash. Unfortunately, Philadelphia,
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: they're the right side in this game. Dude, Like, if
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: I was gonna play any of these hockey games today,
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: it's probably this one. Philadelphia money line would be the
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: way I would play that game. Bruins are fucked, uh
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: Carolina at Ottawa Carolina. I mean they're pretty safe, but
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: you know, I guess you could argue they're trying to
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: fight to get home ice throughout the playoffs. Whatever. They
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: just beat the Islanders yesterday. Now they're having a single
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: game travel spot up to Ottawa. That's pretty bizarre, going
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: from where do they play Charlotte and now they're going
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: all the way up to Ottawa for a single game.
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: That's definitely strange. So it's a pretty weird spot for Carolina.
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: They're gonna be running into an Ottawa team that is
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: pretty desperate in need of a win, and Ottawa's staying
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: at home. They've lost four of their last five games,
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: losing yesterday to Minnesota. But Ottawa has the advantage because
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: they're staying at home and both teams played yesterday. Ottawa
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: is gonna be probably going all out to try to
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: get this game because they're trying to make the playoffs.
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: Carolina is already in pretty securely, so I like Ottawa
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: in this game, man, and the money seems to agree
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: with that too. Carolina not that heavy a favorite. Down
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: to minus one twenty two. It looks too easy to
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: play Carolina and almost like a pick the winner price
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: there sixty nine percent of tickets, sixty percent of the
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: cash in Carolina. I like Ottawa in that one. Actually,
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: that one, you know, you could make the argument that
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: one's better than the Philadelphia I don't, I don't know.
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: Maybe Philadelphia still a better side there, but both those
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: are pretty good. I haven't added them to my card though.
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: Am I being too selective here? Man? I don't know, Yeah,
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean I do like both those.
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: I'm kind of considering it. I guess I'll stay away,
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: but you know, I like both those. I like Philadelphia
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: and I like Ottawa, New Jersey and Montreal New Jersey.
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're just kind of playing out the stretch now.
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: I think technically they could make the playoffs and maybe
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: they'll show up for a game against Montreal, especially because
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: they just lost at home to Montreal. Although that was
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: a close game yesterday in a shootout, so Montreal might
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: take them more seriously because it was a close game.
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: So which way is it gonna go? I don't know.
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: Is Montreal gonna overlook them because they did go into
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: New Jersey and beat them yesterday. Montreal's on this huge
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: win streak. They're gonna be in the playoffs. They do
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: a Florida on deck, but at this point, I don't
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: know that that's really that much of a look ahead. The
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: biggest negative from Montreal those they were turning on from
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: a road trip. On the road since March twenty eighth.
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: So I always talk about that they went all the
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: way down to Carolina at Tampa Bay, won every game
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: on the road trip, and when teams were turning on
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: from road trips, a lot of times they will overlook
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: their opponent. They got to get back to home life,
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: you know whatever. It's definitely not a good spot for
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: Montreal here, so I would lean to New Jersey. Also,
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: you have that kind of zigzag component there probably where
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: Montreal just finished their road trip by winning at New Jersey.
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: So I like New Jersey. Here. The money seems to
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: agree Montreal down to minus one forty five on the
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: money line from minus one fifty five eighty four percent
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: of tickets eighty percent of the cash on Montreal, So
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: the money indicating on New Jersey. I agree. I just
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: wish Montreal had a bigger game on deck than Florida,
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: which I just don't think is that big anymore at
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: this point. So those are my thoughts on I have
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: a lot of opinions on these hockey games. Man, it's
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: just that none of them really were good enough. I thought,
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: you know, to totally actually make my card. ESPN's got
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: a doubleheader at night here Washington at New York at
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 1: the Rangers. I should say Washington is still trying to
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs, so they're coming off of a big
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: win yesterday over Buffalo, so they could be in a
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: little bit of a letdown spot here after that. Even
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: the Washington needs to keep winning to try to make
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. The Rangers are actually eliminated, and we know
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: that the Rangers is sucked at home, but they've been
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: a little bit better at home. Basically since they've been eliminated,
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: they've played better at home. They won at home yesterday
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 1: against Detroit. Will that set up a letdown spot for them?
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: I don't know. It's possible. They look ahead because they
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: got Buffalo, Dallas, Florida maybe not so much, but then
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay to end the season, so most of those
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: are pretty big games. Washington probably should give you a
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: bigger effort here because again they're fighting for playoff positioning here.
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: But it does mean the pressure is going to be
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: on them. The money is coming in on Washington to
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: some extent. Minus one thirteen is where they're at on
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: the money line. Seventy five percent of tickets, ninety seven
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Washington oh god, this game.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: This is not one of my stronger opinions. I mean,
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: this game is a close call. I mean, I guess
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: I'll slightly agree with Washington just because it's still kind
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: of a pick the winner price and you pretty much
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: know you're getting an effort out of them. But I
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: do worry about that potential letdown after their win yesterday.
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: But you know, they got to keep trying because they're
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: trying to make a run to make a playoffs here
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: at the end of the season. Yes, yeah, gotta support
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: the team. You said, no painting my face, and as
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: you can see, this is clearly not my face. The
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: second game of the ESPN doubleheader is not a good one.
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis at Colorado. You got one team that's pretty
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: much out of it and one team that's guaranteed to
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: be in it. Saint Louis just had a blowout win
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: of iver Anaheim. They actually didn't play yesterday, but they're
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 1: having to travel from Anaheim into Elevation now after a
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: pretty good win, a satisfying upset win over Anaheim. Now
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: they're not going to overlook Colorado, and Colorado might not
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: take this game that seriously. So that's the thing. Colorado
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 1: also played yesterday in Dallas, so they're at a little
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: bit of a disadvantage rest wise because they had to
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: play yesterday and they're having to travel back from beating
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: Dallas in a potential playoff preview there big win. So
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: I don't love Colorado here. They might not take Saint
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: Louis totally seriously either, So I would lean to Saint
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: Louis in this game. The money is agreeing with that.
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: Colorado down to minus two point five seventy three percent
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: of tickets on Colorado, sixty percent of the cash on
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis, So the money is in agreement with me
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: on that. I feel like I'm seeing the hockey board
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: well today and yet I'm skipping the whole thing. So
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I don't know. But my strongest
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: to be Philadelphia, then Ottawa probably as far as those
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: Leans are concerned there, and then New Jersey and then uh,
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: I don't even know. After that, After that it would
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: be just yeah, I don't even want to rank the
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: other ones because I would pass on the rest of them.
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: All right, NBA, we do have some afternoon NBA. Actually,
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: it's so hard to handicap these late season NBA games, man,
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: so many of these games are just absolute shit. All
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: the teams that are out of it are just not
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: really giving a much much effort at this point. Toronto
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: at Boston, I mean, this is an interesting game though
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 1: on NBATV at three point thirty pm. Toronto is trying
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: to avoid the play in so they have something to
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: play for here, man, And they're not gonna overlook a
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: game against Boston either. But Toronto does legitimately have something
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: to play for. They just blew out Memphis on Friday,
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: but they're not gonna overlook Boston. You know. The Celtics
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: are pretty close to having the two seed wrapped up
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 1: at this point, not guaranteed yet, but they have a
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: two and a half game lead over the Knicks. They're
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: gonna have to beat the Knicks though when they play them.
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: The Celtics coming off a blow out win over Milwaukee.
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 1: Celtics are returning over from a road trip where they
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: won the road trip. They took three out of four
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: on the road trip. They went as far as Miami
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: during the road trips, so they stayed in the well,
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: they didn't stay in the Eastern time zone either. They
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: went to the Central Times on to play Milwaukee. So yeah,
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: I mean it's not a great spot for the Celtics. Man,
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: they were turning over from a road trip. They did
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: have to play a back to back during that road trip,
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: so they're playing a whatever. This is a fourth game
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 1: in six days, I think, in a fifth game in
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: eight days, all in different cities. That's not great. So
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: I do not like the spot for the Celtics here.
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: Toronto probably a bit more motivated Toronto. One thing about
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: them is they've been pretty good as a road underdog
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: this season, and the money is bearing this out. Celtics
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: are a nine and a half point favorite, but eighty
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 1: five percent of tickets on them, only sixty three percent
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the Celtics. The money is agreeing
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 1: with the Raptors. I agree, I would take the points
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: with Toronto. So my opinions are going against my Boston
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: teams here, except I do have a slight lean towards
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox today, But these other games I have
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 1: stronger opinions on. I don't like the Bruins today and
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: I don't like the Celtics today, And this might be
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: my strongest NBA inion today as well. I like the
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: Raptors plus the points there. It doesn't make my card though.
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: Washington at Brooklyn, this is a disgusting game. This game
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: shouldn't even be played. Just, you know, just give everybody
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: a refund that has tickets to this game. Washington's lost
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: five in a row. They just give up one hundred
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: and fifty two points to Miami yesterday, so they're on
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: a back to back, having to travel up to Brooklyn
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: from Miami. You know, you could probably see, potentially see
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: Brooklyn actually score some points here. Brooklyn just gave up
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: a lot of points against Atlanta, they didn't play yesterday,
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: and they're staying at home. So the spot is I
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: guess a little bit better for Brooklyn here. For what
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: that's worth. The money's coming in on the Wizards, though
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: the Brooklyn side is down for four and a half
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: to three and a half, sixty six percent of tickets
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: on them, sixty one percent of the cash on the Wizards.
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: I don't really agree with that. I mean, I think
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 1: the Nets having rest and staying at home. I know
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: it's factoring into the line, but I probably lean that way.
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't really disagree with an over in a game
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: where teams are just playing out the stretch and it
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 1: could be a scrimmage. But then again, both teams might
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: actually have a reason to focus a little bit on
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 1: defense because they both give up so many points in
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: their last game. Total is two thirty and sixty eight
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the over, fifty eight percent of
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over, so the money is indicating
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: on the under. I don't think I would want to
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: do that though. To me, you would think that the
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 1: public would kind of lean under because it's like, well,
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 1: you got two shitty teams, Like where's the scoring gonna
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 1: come from? You know? But yeah, I mean games like
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: that are just a pass for me though. Phoenix at
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: Chicago Phoenix, they're still fighting to avoid the playing over
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 1: in the West Man Phoenix they do not want to
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: fall into the play and they've lost two games in
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: a row. They haven't been playing that well recently. They're
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: gonna try to salvage on this last game of the
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: road trip, I think, to even up the road trip.
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 1: They do have rest after losing at Charlotte. They haven't
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 1: played since Thursday, so they're rested. Possible look ahead though,
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: because they got a TV game against Houston when they
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: get back home. But I don't know that they totally
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 1: overlooked this game. In this situation here, the Bulls look
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: like they're just not even putting an effort at this point. Man.
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 1: They've given up one hundred and twenty five or more
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: points in how many games in a row? Is this?
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 1: We could go one hundred and twenty four or more
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: in every game going all the way back to March
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: twenty third. Bulls are just not playing defense. They just
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 1: got killed by the Knicks, and it was a spot
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: where the Knicks were not even in a good spot
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 1: and the Bulls took a forty point loss in the game.
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: So what are we even getting out of the Bulls
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 1: at this point? Man? If they won't even focus for
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: a game against the Knicks, I don't know. They're back
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 1: home here now, it's their second last home game. I
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: don't know if having a chance to play spoiler against
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 1: a Western Conference team like the Suns, I don't know
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 1: if that even really matters to the Bulls. The Suns
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: are a ten point favorite, obviously, the Sons are the
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 1: only one of these two teams that really has motivation here.
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: But I wouldn't want to lay ten points either. Man,
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: the Suns. They're a good covering team as an underdog,
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: as a huge road favorite, Probably not so much. Seventy
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: two percent of ticket seventy three percent of the cash
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 1: on the Sun. So maybe some money indicating on the Suns.
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, I would probably actually lean towards the Suns
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 1: in the game, but just because they're the only one
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 1: of the two teams that has motivation. But I can't
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: lay double digits like that. Man, I'm not gonna do that.
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 1: Memphis at Milwaukee, this is another pretty atrocious game. Two
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: teams that are not gonna be anywhere near the playoffs here.
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 1: Memphis is lost three in a row. They're just playing
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 1: out the stretch now, you know. I don't know if
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be focused for this one weird single road
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: game going to Milwaukee, and then they do with Cleveland
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 1: and Denver up next Cleveland tomorrow. Maybe that's a bigger
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 1: game for them. I don't know. I'm Milwaukee. I'm pretty
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 1: sure they're not gonna try to bring you Honis back.
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 1: As I've been saying for a while, They're not going to.
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 1: They just got blown out by the Celtics on Friday.
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 1: They're staying at home at least, so I guess that's
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: something for Milwaukee, so maybe they have an advantage in
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: that respect. The money is indicating towards the Grizzlies, though
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 1: Bucks are a six point favorite, sixty seven percent of
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 1: tickets on them, only fifty percent of the cash. I
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: don't even know if I agree with the Grizzly side
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 1: and this one, and the money's coming in towards the
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 1: under here as well, don't really know if I agree
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: with that either. Again, when you have two teams that
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 1: are not playing for anything, usually the deepfense just doesn't
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 1: have intensity. So yeah, I don't have a good read
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 1: on that game at all. Though that game is not
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 1: gonna be a game I would go anywhere near Indiana
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 1: at Cleveland, Indiana. They're playing out the stretch here. I mean,
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: they've had a bad injury hampered season here. I still
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 1: I didn't think Indiana was as good as people thought
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 1: they were last year, and they made that run to
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: the finals. They should be a playoff team, though, Like
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: you know, you would think like next year, after Indiana
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: gets a good draft pick, you know they're gonna probably
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: have Haliburton back next year. They still have this cool players.
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 1: Zubach was a good pickup for them, who pretty much
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: hasn't played for them this year. So Indiana, I think
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be a lot better next year than they
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 1: are this year. Probably not as good as they were
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 1: last year, but you know they'll be improvement for Indiana.
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: But what are they gonna do in this game against Cleveland.
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Man, They're coming off getting blown out
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 1: in Charlotte on Friday. They might get up for a
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 1: game against Cleveland. I mean, it is a big game.
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 1: Cleveland is pretty close to being kind of locked in
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 1: ish to the four seed, I think in the in
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 1: the East, which I think is kind of what they
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 1: want because I think they'd rather face Detroit without Cunningham
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: than have to deal with that would be a second
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 1: round matchup, rather than have to deal with the Celtics
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 1: or the Knicks. Cleveland coming off beating Golden State and
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 1: returning home from the Pacific Coast trip, so it's not
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: the greatest spot for Cleveland. It wasn't a long trip.
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 1: It started on Monday, but they did go into elevation
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 1: into Utah. They had to play the Lakers, and they
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 1: beat Golden State a very injured Golden State team, but
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 1: returning over from a road trip from the Pacific Coast. Again,
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 1: it's not exactly the greatest spot you have to get
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 1: back to home life. I mean, you could potentially overlook
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: your opponent here. So I would lean to Indiana in
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 1: this game, plus all the points that they're getting. Cleveland's
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 1: minus fifteen and a half, down from seventeen and a half.
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: But it's like some of the money is coming in
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 1: on the Cleveland side. Now, I would not agree with
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 1: that seventy two percent of tickets ninety one percent of
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Cavs, I disagree with that. I
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: would take the points of the Pacers. So I got
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 1: some disagreements with some of the market reads here though,
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 1: although I agree with the market and the Raptor Celtics
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 1: game towards taking the points of the Raptors. But yeah,
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: I would take the points of the Pacers. And that
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 1: one Charlotte at Minnesota. Charlotte is still I think trying
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: to avoid the playan, although I think at this point
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 1: it looks pretty likely they're going to be in the
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 1: play in, but they've won three games in a row.
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna overlook Minnesota, but they do
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 1: have three huge games to finish this in Boston, Detroit,
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: New York. This is not an easy schedule, man, so
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 1: I think Charlotte is probably not going to be able
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 1: to make the top six there. I think they're going
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: to be in the play in because this is rough.
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 1: Three road games for really difficult games in a row.
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 1: Coming off beating Indiana, they're playing a third game in
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 1: four days, now, fourth game in six days. That's not
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 1: that easy to do. It's actually a sixth game in
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 1: nine days, I think is what this is. Although a
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 1: lot of the games are at home, but it's still
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 1: a pretty packed schedule for them. Now Minnesota looks like
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be without Anthony Edwards in this game. Minnesota
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 1: is already safely in the playoffs, although it's kind of
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 1: a matter of what seed are they going to get,
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 1: but that's not really that much of a motivational factor.
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 1: Although it looks like you're gonna get potentially like a
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 1: Minnesota Denver four or five matchup, that would be pretty
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 1: unfortunate because I think both those teams are a couple
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 1: of the better teams in the Western Conference, and the
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 1: fact that one of them might be gone right away
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 1: is kind of ugly, but minnesot To the returning over
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 1: from a road trip, that's not great. They went to Dallas, Detroit, Philadelphia,
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 1: kind of a short road trip, but still a road
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 1: trip return nonethe last where sometimes you kind of overlook
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 1: your opponent and they have to go right back out
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 1: on the road after this. So they're in one of
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 1: those road trips sandwiches, which is not good, you know,
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 1: because you only have a little bit of time to
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 1: get whatever done you have to get done when you're
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 1: back at home, go back out on the road. Got
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 1: to see what the injury report looks like, though, because
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 1: we don't know if Anthony Edwards is playing or not
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 1: based on the line here, the fact that Charlotte is
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 1: favored on the road, that would kind of indicate to
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 1: me that Anthony Edwards is not going to be playing
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 1: in this game. The fact that Charlotte is favored in
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 1: a game at Minnesota just kind of seems insane to me.
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 1: They flip from a one and a half point dog
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 1: to two point favorite. Fifty percent of tickets on the Hornets.
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 1: The Hornets are actually getting the public action in this game,
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 1: probably because I guess everybody knows Edwards is hurt, but
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Sixty six percent of the cash on
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 1: the Tea Wolves. I don't like either side here, man.
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 1: The money is saying the Tea Wolves. I think the
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 1: Hornets shouldn't be a two point road favorite like this
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 1: even without Anthony Edwards in the lineup for the Tea Wolves.
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 1: But the Tea Wolves are in a really difficult spot.
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 1: So I can't do anything with the t Wolves here
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 1: either man. This game is a complete stay away. I
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 1: don't even want to offer an opinion on the game. Really.
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 1: The money is indicating on the t Wolves. Do with
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 1: that information what you want to Orlando at New Orleans.
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 1: Orlando just beat Dallas. Orlando looks like they're pretty much
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 1: guaranteed to be in the play ins in the East
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 1: at this point. I don't think they're gonna be able
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 1: to get into the top six here. They do have
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 1: a huge game against Detroit on deck, so it is
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 1: possible they look past New Orleans here. At this point,
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 1: New Orleans is like the only eliminated team that's actually
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 1: putting an effort, and I think part of the reason
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 1: is because they don't have a first round draft pick.
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 1: They already traded that draft pick away, so they've actually
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 1: been playing with effort like. Even though they've lost seven
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 1: games in a row, they've actually been pretty competitive in
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 1: a lot of those games. But they are returning home
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 1: from playing on the Pacific Coast only for two games,
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 1: but they're playing a third game in four days, all
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 1: in different cities. They just went out to the Pacific Coast.
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 1: It's not exactly the greatest spot for New Orleans here,
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 1: and they are facing an Orlando team that I guess
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 1: might be motivated to try to get some wins to
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 1: try to maybe still make a shot at avoiding the
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 1: play in. But I still don't love the magic and
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 1: the spot either though. Man, the money is coming under
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 1: the Pelicans, for what that's worth. The Magic or four
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite, up from three and a half,
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 1: seventy four percent of tickets on Orlando. Sixty one percent
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the Pelicans money is on the
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 1: New Orleans side here, you know, I I don't know, man,
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 1: I just I'll give you that's what the market reda
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 1: is saying in that game. And I don't really have
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 1: a good opinion on this game one way or the other.
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 1: I don't really want New Orleans return from the Pacific
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 1: coast either, though, even though it was a short trip Utah.
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 1: At Oklahoma City, Utah, the question is, are you gonna
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 1: get an effort out of them for once here. They've
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 1: lost a bunch of games in a row. A lot
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 1: of their guys aren't playing. They just got blown out
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 1: in Houston. They've had a couple of games where they
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 1: have played competitively, though, a couple of games against Denver
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 1: where it looks like they actually kind of put it
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 1: in an effort, a game against Cleveland where they did. So,
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 1: will they show up against Oklahoma City? They might, because
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is the best team in the league,
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 1: So maybe you do get up to put in a
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 1: good effort, put in a good performance against Oklahoma City.
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma City's coming off some really satisfying wins against the
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 1: Knicks Detroit in overtime, they just blew out the Lakers.
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, that has to be really satisfying to just
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 1: demolish the Lakers to the point where a half the
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 1: Lakers team got injured in the game too. That's gonna
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 1: make the Thunder look way too good man, And they're
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 1: actually in a Lakers Sandwich because they have to play
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 1: the Lakers again on Tuesday, although it'll be a very
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 1: injury depleted Laker team. I don't like Oklahoma City in
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 1: the spot though, man, I would take the points with Utah.
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 1: I was gonna do it. You're getting twenty four points
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 1: in this game. I think this is the biggest spread
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 1: of the NBA season. Excuse me, with the Jazz. You're
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 1: getting twenty four points with the Jazz. Here, I would
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 1: link towards taking the points with the Jazz. Eighty one
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, eighty five percent of the cash on
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 1: the thunder. They're gonna be a public side probably like
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 1: they just looked way, way, way too good in that game.
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, yes, they are better than the Lakers are,
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 1: there's no question about that. But that's just a ridiculous
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 1: massacre of a game that everybody kind of saw because
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 1: it was on TV and whatever. Winning the game just
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 1: very impressively by over forty points. Yeah, I mean, Oklahoma
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 1: City could just sleep walk through this game. I know
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 1: they're trying to hang onto the one seed here. San
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 1: Antonio is only like two games behind them, but yeah,
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, Oklahoma's City obviously can win this game. Without
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 1: covering as well, So I would lean towards the Jazz
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 1: plus the points. We got an NBC Peacock doubleheader here
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 1: as well. So Peacock fucking over on Major League Baseball
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 1: here man by having the Sunday night Major League Baseball
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 1: game having to coincide with NBA. But maybe people won't
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 1: watch these NBA games, man, especially this first game. Are
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 1: people really gonna watch like half of a Lakers team
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 1: play against Dallas? I don't know, man. I mean, this
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 1: is technically the Luca Battle, but Luca's not gonna be there.
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 1: Dallas does have Cooper Flag, so I guess that is
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 1: something that maybe people want to see. But the Lakers
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 1: coming up that absolute annihilation at the hands of Oklahoma City,
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 1: really it should be a bounce back spot for the Lakers,
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 1: even though they might be looking ahead to Oklahoma City.
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 1: The Lakers we know they're gonna be in the playoffs,
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 1: and I think the Lakers are gonna start focused, start
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 1: getting focused on trying to get healthy here. But it
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 1: looks like so Luca got hurt. As we know, he
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 1: had a hamstring injury, non contact injury, which could be
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 1: an injurious He's out for an unknown amount of time
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 1: right now. After that game he gets okay see, and
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 1: Austin Reeves got hurt as well, and it looks like
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 1: both of them are gonna be out for at least
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 1: four to six weeks, so they're gonna miss the beginning
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 1: of the playoffs as well. And then if the Lakers
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 1: advance in the playoffs and it looks like maybe they'll
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 1: get those guys back, things are not looking great for
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 1: the Lakers here, man, But this is a huge injured
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 1: player theory spot, so there is that, and they're coming
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 1: off such an embarrassing loss that maybe you will get
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 1: an effort out of the Lakers here, man. Like I
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 1: was thinking after all that happened, I was gonna be
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 1: looking towards maybe a play on the Lakers in their
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 1: next game. Problem is they got Oklahoma City again next.
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 1: I just don't know, man, But you might get some
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 1: value on the Lakers because everybody's gonna overreact to the
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 1: Lakers being just absolutely decimated all of a sudden, with
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 1: no Luca, no Reeves, coming off a blowout loss at
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 1: the heads of oklah Mast. But Dallas is not a
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 1: good team. Although Dallas, you gotta think they will get
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 1: up for a game against La though, So that's kind
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 1: of the other problem. Dallas is staying at home. That
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 1: they have lost three games in a row. This is
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 1: a huge, kind of a huge TV game, so they're
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 1: probably gonna show up against the Lakers as injury depleted
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 1: as the Lakers are. So I'm staying away from the game.
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 1: But Lakers looked like they were gonna be six and
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 1: a half, and then I think because of the additional
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 1: Reeves news, now the Lakers are only a two point favorite.
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 1: But maybe in a way, it almost looks too easy
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 1: to play the Lakers at this point. Fifty tickets on
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 1: the Lakers, sixty nine percent of the cash on the Mavericks,
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 1: so the money is indicating on the Mavericks. I mean,
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 1: I still probably have a slight lean towards the Lakers
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 1: in this game, you know, if I'm being honest, I
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 1: think that's probably a lot of value there with the Lakers,
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 1: basically just picking them to win the game. But I
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 1: don't want to touch the game, man, I really don't.
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 1: I thought that I might give out a play on
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 1: the Lakers there, but the way that it sets up,
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 1: I don't think so. Clippers at Sacramento. The Clippers are
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 1: trying to avoid the play in as well, though I
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 1: think they're probably going to be locked into being in
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 1: the play ins at this point, even though I think
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 1: the Clippers are a fairly dangerous team. Like I think
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 1: we'll talk about it when the playans happen, but I
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 1: think the Clippers should be one of the teams that
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 1: will get out of the playanes and get into one
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 1: of the playoff spots. Clippers did just take a loss
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 1: to San Antonio. They played well against San Antonio in
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 1: two games recently, but they didn't have as good of
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 1: a game on Thursday. They got kind of blown out
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 1: by San Antonio, losing by nineteen. Going out on the
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 1: road here now, but they're staying in the state of
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 1: California in to play Sacramento. You might get an effort
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 1: out of the Clippers here, man, even though it's easy
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 1: to overlook Sacramento, but the Clippers do have a little
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 1: bit to play for still. Sacramento just return over from
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 1: a road trip and still beat New Orleans, even though
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 1: it was a bad spot returning home from a long
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 1: road trip. I don't know how how Sacramento won that game.
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 1: Maybe they'll get up for a game against LA Now
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 1: they're back at home. You know, they might put in
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 1: a good performance against the Clippers. Try to, you know,
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 1: play spoiler ish, but you can't eliminate the Clippers from
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 1: the play inns at least, so I don't know. Clippers
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 1: are laying twelve and a half here up from eleven
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 1: and a half, seventy two percent of ticket sixty six
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Clippers money kind of
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 1: indicating towards taking the points of the Kings. Deal with
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 1: that information what you want. I mean, I don't know.
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 1: I mean the market read is saying to take the
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 1: points of the Kings. I really don't have a strong
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 1: opinion on it at all. Maybe it is too many
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 1: points to lay with the Clippers, but I don't want
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 1: anything to do with it. And then Houston at Golden
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 1: State is the last game and NBC Peacock Game of
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 1: the night. Houston is still they're really trying to avoid
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 1: the play ins at this point, man, They're trying to
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 1: make sure they get one of these top six spots.
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 1: As crazy as it sounds, because I do think Houston
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 1: is one of the top six teams in the West.
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 1: They're really going to deepfense. Kevin Durant kind of airring
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 1: them right now. Though Houston's won five games in a row,
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 1: most of them gets pretty weak teams. Though. Now they're
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 1: going out on the road to face Golden State. I
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna overlook Golden State here, although Golden
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 1: State is trying well. Actually, Golden State, I don't really
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 1: know what they have to play for here because they're
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 1: not gonna miss the play ins even though they have
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 1: a horrible record. Golden State is going to be in
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 1: the play and I think at this one, I think
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 1: they're almost guaranteed to be in basically that ten spot
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 1: at this one. Actually, let me look at the I'm
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 1: gonna look at the standings here because I think Golden
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 1: State might even be locked into it at this point.
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 1: Let me see, Yeah, they are. Actually Portland, Clippers and
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 1: Golden State are all locked into the play ins. Now.
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 1: Phoenix needs to try to get themselves out of the
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 1: play in at this point, but I think they're probably
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 1: gonna be into their four games behind Minnesota, So I
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 1: think Phoenix is gonna be stuck in the play ins
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 1: as well, which really sucks for them. But they definitely
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 1: should get out of it. They're better than Like, dude,
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 1: I think the Blazers suck and I think the Warriors sucks.
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 1: So you know, I think Phoenix and the Clippers should
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 1: get into the actual playoffs. But we'll see what happens.
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Golden State, they're locked in. I mean, they
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 1: technically could somehow flip up up, you know, get ahead
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 1: of the Clippers and get the home court in that
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 1: first game. But I don't even think that's gonna happen.
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 1: So I don't know how much motivation Golden State's really
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 1: gonna have here. Golden State they're coming off a close
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 1: loss to Cleveland, so they just played a pretty good
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 1: game against Cleveland, so they might be a little bit
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 1: tired off of that game too, although they're staying at
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 1: home and they have two days off, so that's at
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 1: least a good thing for them. Now. The thing about
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 1: Golden State is you got to pay attention to the
• 1:48:39
  Speaker 1: injury news here because it looks like Curry might actually
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 1: be back here. He's a game time decision. He hasn't
• 1:48:46
  Speaker 1: played since late January. If he comes back, I don't
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 1: like Golden State, so I know it sounds counterintuitive, but
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 1: if you listen to me. When a team star player
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 1: comes back in a game, you know, and especially when
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 1: he's had a long absence, the team has to get
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 1: used to him being back, and I think the line
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 1: can kind of overreact to him being back. So you
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 1: get value usually going against that team, and a lot
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 1: of times he won't play as full compliment of minutes,
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 1: but the oswigers can't really know if that's gonna be
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 1: the case or not, you know. And again, people will overreact,
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 1: especially when it's a guy like Curry, who is the
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 1: best team on the Warriors and one of the best
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 1: teams you know, in the history of the league, you know.
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 1: So I think there is gonna be an overreaction. If
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 1: he does come back, it's gonna take a while for
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 1: the Warriors, so I think kind of adapt to him
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 1: being back. He's gonna have to take a little while
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 1: to get back into full shape, you know what I mean,
• 1:49:38
  Speaker 1: because he hasn't played an actual full speed game for
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 1: a while. So I would wait on this game, and
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 1: if it is announced that Curry is coming back, the
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 1: line should drop on the Rockets towards the Warriors a bit,
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 1: and then you'll get some value on the Rockets, and
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 1: then I would probably look towards the Rockets in the
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 1: game if that was gonna be the case. Although right
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 1: now looks like the money's indicating on the Warrior seventy
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 1: seven percent of tickets, seventy one percent of the cash
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 1: on the Rockets. Rockets are a public side there, a
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 1: four point road favorite right now. But again, the way
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 1: I would play it, I don't want the Warriors in
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 1: this game, and I would wait and if Curry is
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 1: coming back, maybe you'll get some value playing the Rockets
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 1: at closer to like a pick them type of price there.
• 1:50:18
  Speaker 1: So that's probably what I would do. That's gonna do
• 1:50:21
  Speaker 1: it for the NBA, man, I mean, I don't have
• 1:50:23
  Speaker 1: a strong enough opinion really in the NBA. I think
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 1: my strongest opinion is fading the Celtics, as bad as
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 1: that is. And then we got college basketball. We have
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 1: two championship games as a little bit of a an
• 1:50:34
  Speaker 1: appetizer before the actual championship game tomorrow. You get these
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 1: two championship games here. These games have not been well attended, man,
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 1: very unfortunately. These games in Las Vegas in the Crown,
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 1: Nobody's going to them, which you would think wouldn't be
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 1: the case because people in Las Vegas, I mean, it's
• 1:50:53
  Speaker 1: a betting town. You would think, hey, we have college
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 1: basketball games with some decent college basketball programs coming in here.
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 1: You'd think that people would want to go to some
• 1:51:01
  Speaker 1: of these games. But it's not happening anyway in Las Vegas.
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 1: In Team Mobile, which is I believe, the same arena
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 1: that the semi finals were at yesterday. Oklahoma, who got
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 1: us the win yesterday against West Virginia, which was also
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 1: a correct lean for me yesterday. That's the final in
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 1: the Crown. So these teams are playing to get more
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 1: nil money here. It's an interesting game, I think, Man,
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 1: both teams play slow, but you got West Virginia being
• 1:51:27
  Speaker 1: the way better defense. So West Virginia is an even
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 1: slower team in Oklahoma and they have the better defense.
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma is the way better offense. But you know what
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 1: I always say, I like the better defense getting points,
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 1: and that is what West Virginia is here, man, And
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know like which team really had the more
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 1: impressive performance yesterday. Both teams won by a similar amount
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 1: and looked fairly good. Oklahoma beating Baylor might actually get
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 1: more credit because Baylor has a lot of that weight
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 1: behind their name. West Virginia. You know, they beat Creighton
• 1:51:59
  Speaker 1: to end urma. It's tenure at Creighton. Not on the
• 1:52:02
  Speaker 1: greatest note, but people might think that's less impressive because
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 1: you know, Creighton's a big East team and yeah, I
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 1: don't know, just feels like people will be less impressed
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 1: with that win. And the public hates West Virginia, dude.
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 1: They just don't like teams that play real, real, slow
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 1: and ugly. So a lot of times you can get
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 1: betting value on teams like that. I would lean towards
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 1: taking the points with West Virginia and this one. It's
• 1:52:26
  Speaker 1: not gonna be a play for me, but you're getting
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 1: three and a half on them now sixty eight percent
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 1: of the tickets and only sixty four percent of the
• 1:52:31
  Speaker 1: cash on Oklahoma. I don't think either team has a
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 1: crowd edge or whatever, because the crowd is just not
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 1: even showing up at all to these games. You know,
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 1: the players are all used to playing in the arena.
• 1:52:43
  Speaker 1: At this point, the total is low at one thirty
• 1:52:46
  Speaker 1: eight and a half. I think the total might be
• 1:52:49
  Speaker 1: a little bit correlated. Like, if you like West Virginia,
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 1: you probably like a lower scoring game, and it's probably
• 1:52:54
  Speaker 1: correlated to the under. Oklahoma is not a fast paced team,
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 1: but they do rely on getting a lot of offense.
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 1: So if you like Okahoma, they're probably gonna need to
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 1: score more points total at one thirty eight and a
• 1:53:05
  Speaker 1: half here, So probably because I leaned to West Virginia,
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 1: I would probably lean to an under in this game slightly,
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 1: although I know both teams played yesterday, so I don't
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 1: love playing an under when teams are on no rest
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 1: and the offense has now got used to the site
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 1: lines or whatever, so I don't love that. Really. Eighty
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 1: nine percent of tickets and cash on the over though,
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 1: so the overlooks like it's a pretty public lean there,
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 1: if you want to call it that. But my preference
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 1: is probably West Virginia plus the points in that one.
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 1: And then we have the NIT final between Tulsa and Auburn.
• 1:53:40
  Speaker 1: Interesting game, and I mean, none of these teams that
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 1: are left are actually bad really, like ken Bomb has
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 1: every one of these four teams like within the top
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 1: seventy or so. I mean, Auburn is in the top forty. Auburn,
• 1:53:53
  Speaker 1: they've shown up in this tournament. Man, it looks like
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 1: they're trying to prove something after they got left out
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 1: of the the tournament itself. And I know I only
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 1: had one inn it play, I think, and I faded
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 1: Auburn in their first game because that first game usually
• 1:54:10
  Speaker 1: that you know, team like Auburn that's used to being
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 1: in the tournament. Every time it gets barely left out
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 1: of the tournament, a lot of times they're disappointed. It
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 1: was a little brother Big brothers situation with South Alabama too,
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 1: so I did give out a play at South Alabama.
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 1: We got the cover with that one. But once Auburn
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 1: got by that game, I think it was like, Okay,
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 1: let's just try to win this thing now, you know
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 1: what I mean. Now we're looking to this game being
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 1: in Indianapolis. This is in Gainbridge Field House now, which
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 1: I believe that is Butler's Stadium still, I think, is it?
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 1: I thought it was called Hinkle though. Let me say,
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 1: is it the same arena or is it a different arena? Actually,
• 1:54:46
  Speaker 1: you know what, maybe it is a different arena this time.
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Somebody can let me know about that,
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 1: because the semi finals were definitely played at Butler's Stadium,
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 1: and I don't know if you would think it would
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 1: be at the same stadium, But I don't know if
• 1:54:57
  Speaker 1: it is. Is that an advantage to one team over
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 1: the other, I don't know. I mean I think Auburn
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 1: just generally, I mean, they're a bigger name team, so
• 1:55:07
  Speaker 1: Auburn probably will have better crowd support in this game.
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 1: I don't think the crowd in these NIT games has
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 1: been as bad as it has been in the Vegas
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 1: Crown Tournament. Here. For whatever reason, NIT just kind of
• 1:55:19
  Speaker 1: gets more, you know, like it has more respect because
• 1:55:23
  Speaker 1: it's been a tournament for way longer, so it has
• 1:55:25
  Speaker 1: that history behind it. Indiana is a very big basketball area,
• 1:55:30
  Speaker 1: so I think there will be a bigger crowd at
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 1: this game. Now Tulsa, the one thing that Tulsa does
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 1: is they jack up threes, and Auburn is not good
• 1:55:39
  Speaker 1: at defending the threes. That might be the one advantage
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 1: Tulsa might have is the three pointer, and they're gonna
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 1: need that because Auburn is the better team. Auburn is
• 1:55:48
  Speaker 1: favored here, but they're only favored by five seventy five
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets. It's sixty eight percent of the
• 1:55:53
  Speaker 1: cash on Auburn so the money is indicating against Auburn
• 1:55:57
  Speaker 1: and towards taking the points. With Tulsa, we do have
• 1:55:59
  Speaker 1: a high total. It's down from minus one sixty one
• 1:56:02
  Speaker 1: to minus one sixty sixty nine percent of tickets on
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 1: the over fifty percent of the cash on the over.
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 1: So the money's kind of indicating on the under. And
• 1:56:10
  Speaker 1: you know there is the whole thing. Yeah, Championship games
• 1:56:12
  Speaker 1: tend to go under, you know, that type of thing
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 1: because teams go out and they focus on deepense. But
• 1:56:18
  Speaker 1: these two teams are more offensive teams. Man, That's just
• 1:56:21
  Speaker 1: what they are. They play better offense than deepfense. Both
• 1:56:24
  Speaker 1: teams do. Now Auburn, there one disadvantage here is they
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 1: don't defend the three. Well, so if Tulsa's gonna be
• 1:56:31
  Speaker 1: able to do something in this game, they got to
• 1:56:33
  Speaker 1: hit the three. But Auburn is the better team on
• 1:56:36
  Speaker 1: both sides of the ball. Ken Bum's got, I mean,
• 1:56:38
  Speaker 1: that's why they're favored. Ken Bum's got Auburn thirty seventh,
• 1:56:41
  Speaker 1: Tulsa fifty six. Both teams are in the top forty
• 1:56:44
  Speaker 1: on offense, but Auburn's a top ten offense according to
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 1: ken Palm. Both teams are outside the top one hundred
• 1:56:51
  Speaker 1: on deepense. Tulsa is worse on the defensive side as well.
• 1:56:54
  Speaker 1: Tulsa is the luckier team according to ken Palm, significantly
• 1:56:58
  Speaker 1: so so Auburn, in his luck indexes almost two hundred
• 1:57:01
  Speaker 1: ranking spots higher. So if you want to look at like,
• 1:57:04
  Speaker 1: what are these teams done this season, well, Auburn is
• 1:57:07
  Speaker 1: underperformed and Tulsa's overperformed a bit. And both teams play
• 1:57:11
  Speaker 1: somewhat faster. But Tulsa likes to play even faster than Auburn.
• 1:57:15
  Speaker 1: And if I'm not mistaken, I believe Tulsa, one of
• 1:57:17
  Speaker 1: the best players is still not playing. If I'm not mistaken,
• 1:57:22
  Speaker 1: David Green. I think it's who that is. Let me see, No,
• 1:57:26
  Speaker 1: he is back. It looks like he came back. So yeah,
• 1:57:30
  Speaker 1: my mistake. So he has been playing. I guess, yeah, actually, yeah,
• 1:57:35
  Speaker 1: I guess. I thought he was out for some of
• 1:57:37
  Speaker 1: these games in the conference tournament. But yeah, I don't know.
• 1:57:39
  Speaker 1: Maybe I'm wrong. I don't know. I don't know what
• 1:57:41
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking unless they have two guys named Green. But no,
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 1: I think it was him because he has pretty good stats.
• 1:57:48
  Speaker 1: So I don't know. I don't know what I was thinking, man,
• 1:57:51
  Speaker 1: so yeah, I got that wrong, I guess, but I
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 1: thought that was the case, so never mind. Anyway, Yeah,
• 1:57:57
  Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't know where my mind was
• 1:57:59
  Speaker 1: going there, but yeah, I mean, overall, ken Bum is
• 1:58:03
  Speaker 1: kind of indicating that Auburn should win this game. And
• 1:58:06
  Speaker 1: we know Auburn face a way more difficult schedule though
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 1: now with all that N games included and whatever, that
• 1:58:11
  Speaker 1: down to twelfth in strength the schedule, but that's still
• 1:58:13
  Speaker 1: really high compared to Tulsa one hundred and twenty third
• 1:58:16
  Speaker 1: straight the schedule. Obviously, Auburn's the more battle tested team
• 1:58:19
  Speaker 1: playing in the SEC over the Americans, so that might
• 1:58:24
  Speaker 1: be what gets Auburn over the hump and gets them
• 1:58:26
  Speaker 1: to win in this game. I want to see Auburn
• 1:58:27
  Speaker 1: win it just to piss off the people that love
• 1:58:31
  Speaker 1: Miami Ohio. Although then again, you know, Steven Pearl, Bruce
• 1:58:34
  Speaker 1: Pearl's son is a you know, Zionist, so you know,
• 1:58:37
  Speaker 1: I'm not allowed to say anything about it on you know,
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 1: YouTube here on the show, but you know that makes
• 1:58:42
  Speaker 1: me not love Auburn. But the money is saying to
• 1:58:45
  Speaker 1: take the points with Tulsa. I'm not, like totally bullish
• 1:58:49
  Speaker 1: on that though. Do with that information what you want.
• 1:58:52
  Speaker 1: Maybe I will slightly lean that way, but do what
• 1:58:54
  Speaker 1: you want with that information. I prefer the West Virginia
• 1:58:58
  Speaker 1: side out of any of these games in these two
• 1:59:00
  Speaker 1: basketball games, though. That's gonna do it, man, And then
• 1:59:03
  Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about this Connecticut and Michigan game tomorrow.
• 1:59:05
  Speaker 1: Michigan is a fairly heavy favorite, but you know, maybe
• 1:59:09
  Speaker 1: too heavy after what we saw yesterday. I don't know,
• 1:59:12
  Speaker 1: but that's gonna do it. My play is today one
• 1:59:14
  Speaker 1: more time Pittsburgh pirates money line and first five inning
• 1:59:19
  Speaker 1: under in Red's Rangers. If you want to go full
• 1:59:22
  Speaker 1: game under, you could do that as well. I don't
• 1:59:24
  Speaker 1: hate it, you know. I just am a little bit
• 1:59:26
  Speaker 1: iffy on the bullpens. But the bullpens aren't in horrible
• 1:59:29
  Speaker 1: shape in that game, and they're not horrendous bullpens. So
• 1:59:33
  Speaker 1: either way you want to do it, I think that's all right.
• 1:59:35
  Speaker 1: I found the better number for the first five though,
• 1:59:38
  Speaker 1: so that's what I was going with. That's gonna do it.
• 1:59:40
  Speaker 1: Learn a tone on Twitter, Learn it tone on Instagram,
• 1:59:43
  Speaker 1: like subscribe, give me good replies on the channel here,
• 1:59:46
  Speaker 1: give me good reviews. On Apple, Spotify, listen over there.
• 1:59:49
  Speaker 1: That helps me out as well. Covered in you because
• 1:59:51
  Speaker 1: my yuke channel on YouTube. You can check that out
• 1:59:53
  Speaker 1: as well. Patreon, dot com, slash learn it toa to
• 1:59:56
  Speaker 1: throw me some support there where I don't give enough
• 1:59:59
  Speaker 1: con over there. I apologize, man, I really do. I
• 2:00:02
  Speaker 1: gotta figure something out there and then Loser Cast will
• 2:00:05
  Speaker 1: be back on Tuesday. That's gonna do it. I appreciate it, guys.
• 2:00:09
  Speaker 1: Let's have a good Sunday, peace. Rio. What's what's up? Man?
• 2:00:17
  Speaker 1: I'll answer that question before I get out of here.
• 2:00:21
  Speaker 1: What did you get cooked on? You didn't listen to me?
• 2:00:23
  Speaker 1: I gave it a lean on Michigan in that game yesterday.
• 2:00:26
  Speaker 1: I didn't expect it to be that much of a blowout.
• 2:00:29
  Speaker 1: But Dusty May has been the better big game coach. Yeah,
• 2:00:33
  Speaker 1: there is that. I thought Michigan had the coaching edge
• 2:00:35
  Speaker 1: in that game. They probably won't in the final though.
• 2:00:40
  Speaker 1: Uh real, Uh Mandalori, Mandalorian, what's up? Man? Are you
• 2:00:45
  Speaker 1: Boba Fett? What's up? Brother? I'm about to get out
• 2:00:48
  Speaker 1: of here, man, But yes, dude, that sucks that you
• 2:00:51
  Speaker 1: had a bad day yesterday. Man. We had a good
• 2:00:53
  Speaker 1: day on this show. Yesterday we went to and oh
• 2:00:55
  Speaker 1: I was very selective with one win in baseball and
• 2:00:58
  Speaker 1: one win in the college basketball Crown. So there you go.
• 2:01:02
  Speaker 1: Hopefully we can get wins today man with these baseball
• 2:01:05
  Speaker 1: players as well. So once again, if you missed it,
• 2:01:07
  Speaker 1: Pirates money line first five inning under in Reds and
• 2:01:11
  Speaker 1: Texas Rangers. Although the books, most of the books are
• 2:01:14
  Speaker 1: screwing you. But like I said, I found that number.
• 2:01:16
  Speaker 1: It the good old m with the GM. That place
• 2:01:23
  Speaker 1: was the one that gave me the good number on
• 2:01:25
  Speaker 1: the first five full game undermakes sense to me in
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 1: that game too, though. All right, that's gonna do it.
• 2:01:31
  Speaker 1: Let's have a good one piece guys,