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Episode 276 - 5/12/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 276 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:38
  Happy Monday, a new week begins as we roll through the month of
• 0:41
  May. That's right, Springs here.
• 0:44
  Summer not too far off, guys. We got a lot to get to.
• 0:47
  To kick off a new week. I have a four pack of sweats for
• 0:51
  you guys today. I'm excited to share with you,
• 0:53
  including three Major League Baseball plays.
• 0:56
  I got to play in one of the NBA playoff games here for tonight,
• 0:59
  even though I said I had a four pack, actually have a little
• 1:02
  bonus play for you. I have an NFL win total.
• 1:05
  That's right, NFL win total. I know we're a long ways away
• 1:08
  from the NFL, but there was a recent event or news that popped
• 1:13
  up for one team in the NFC and I started to look at their win
• 1:17
  total. It moved and I'm thinking hey,
• 1:20
  this is a system match for me to play their under expect them to
• 1:23
  have a very bad year and hopefully win five games or
• 1:26
  less. So stay tuned for that.
• 1:28
  But overall guys, 4 pack MLBNBA for today as well as a win total
• 1:33
  that you can chew on and decide if you want to play with me
• 1:35
  because there are a lot of different numbers for this team.
• 1:38
  You might want to get a better number and pay more juice or pay
• 1:40
  less juice and even get plus money.
• 1:42
  I will talk about that because I like having futures, futures
• 1:45
  bets to me, especially the win totals.
• 1:48
  And they can benefit you in quite a different quite a
• 1:50
  different number of ways. Like one hand, obviously you can
• 1:53
  make some money off them. That's what we all care about.
• 1:56
  You have to have liquidity. And again, you have to have
• 1:58
  patience. It's not going to cash for you
• 1:59
  overnight. It's going to take, you know,
• 2:01
  multiple months as high as six months or more.
• 2:03
  But on the one hand, as you kind of kind of look at win totals,
• 2:08
  you do a little research and do your homework, you better
• 2:10
  acclimate yourself to these teams and you can pick up a
• 2:12
  thing or two that maybe could benefit you down the stretch.
• 2:14
  But I'm excited to to talk to you about an NFL win toll.
• 2:18
  I didn't expect to talk about it today, but I like the move and
• 2:21
  it reminds me of one team from last year that were able to cash
• 2:25
  their under win total as well. So that being said, four pack
• 2:28
  NFL win total. Let's get right after it.
• 2:31
  By the way, hope everyone had a great weekend.
• 2:33
  I had a nice BBQ with the with the friends and I'm now 38.
• 2:37
  So people bring dogs, they bring babies.
• 2:39
  We had a nice cook out of my buddy Feds and were able to
• 2:41
  watch the Celtics game which the Celts.
• 2:43
  Now back in business baby let's go.
• 2:46
  But with that being said, let's start off where we love to start
• 2:48
  off with Major League Baseball. So got 3 plays for you guys
• 2:52
  today. Let's see if we can get two or
• 2:54
  more eek out a winning MLB day. So first bit on the board for
• 2:58
  me, let's go to Detroit, Boston Red Sox and the Detroit Tigers.
• 3:02
  Let's set the stage. I'll give you my play for this
• 3:04
  one because it's got a very interesting sharp line move.
• 3:07
  Now the Red Sox come in 22 and 20.
• 3:10
  If you're like me and live in New England, there's a lot of
• 3:12
  drama right now with Raphael Devers.
• 3:13
  Why won't he switch to play first base?
• 3:15
  You had John Henry actually come out and travel to Kansas City to
• 3:19
  talk some sense in one. We'll see how that develops.
• 3:21
  But anyway, two games about 500, which is great for those of us
• 3:25
  on the over 85 and half win total.
• 3:27
  Sox just took two or three against the Royals.
• 3:29
  They won three to 1 yesterday as a + 115 Rd. dog.
• 3:32
  You know the tigers having a great year as well 26 and 15
• 3:36
  picking up where they left off last year.
• 3:38
  However, they did just drop two or three against the Rangers.
• 3:40
  They lost 6 to 1 yesterday as a - 120 home favorite.
• 3:44
  So pitching match up here for tonight.
• 3:46
  We got the Sox the Sox going with the righty Tanner Houck.
• 3:49
  He's O and two 6.1 O ERA, but he's actually been pitching
• 3:52
  better as of late. More on that in a second.
• 3:55
  Tigers meanwhile, going to go with the fellow ready Jackson
• 3:57
  job. He was a top pick couple years
• 3:59
  ago. He's 2 and O 4.88 ERA now.
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  What are we seeing across the market?
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  This one's interesting because it opened with Detroit, a very
• 4:07
  short favorite around -115 at home, Socks around a + 100 row
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  dog and the public is saying give me the Tigers.
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  They're at home. It's a short number.
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  They have a better one loss record.
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  However, even though you're getting nearly 2/3 of money line
• 4:20
  bets at DraftKings taking Detroit, the line has not moved
• 4:23
  further to Detroit. It's completely flipped toward
• 4:26
  Boston. Boston went from a + 100 Rd. dog
• 4:29
  now to a -. 120 Rd. favorite. Some looks even as high as -125
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  S big move toward the Red Sox. You probably know where I'm
• 4:36
  going with this one, but aside from this dog to fave line move,
• 4:39
  one thing I like about the Red Sox.
• 4:41
  A really good bet split out at Circa.
• 4:43
  So in Vegas, Red Sox are only getting 47% of money line bets,
• 4:47
  but 87% of money line dollars. So a big low bets, higher dollar
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  split. Red Sox also have that classic
• 4:54
  non division favorite value. So the lack of familiarity
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  benefiting quote UN quote the better team.
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  Red Sox are hitting 246 on the road this year, 12th best in
• 5:03
  baseball. Detroit's only hitting 247 at
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  home, which technically is better, but that's actually
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  18th. You're supposed to have better
• 5:09
  at home. Then we get to these pitchers a
• 5:11
  little bit more. Tanner Hawk, again, started off
• 5:13
  really bad. There was one game where I think
• 5:15
  he gave up like 12 runs, but he has a 2.31 ERA and two May
• 5:19
  starts. He's only giving up three runs
• 5:20
  and 11.2 and he's pitched. You know, Jackson Job just got
• 5:24
  lit up by the Rockies of all teams giving up six runs and 3.2
• 5:28
  innings pitched. So we got the dog to fave line
• 5:31
  move. We got a great bet split out at
• 5:32
  Circa, tells me smart money in Vegas going to the Red Sox.
• 5:35
  And then lastly, a little cherry on top, our friends at Juice
• 5:38
  Reel have a 10% sharp mush edge on Boston.
• 5:42
  So I'm betting the Sox not because they're my team and I'm
• 5:45
  on the wind total and I want to watch them win.
• 5:47
  Because again, we've learned very long ago not to bet on your
• 5:50
  favorite teams just because they're your favorite teams.
• 5:53
  But if they're also sharp, hey, let's make a bet here.
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  So I'm on the Red Sox. I got a -, 120 at Bet MGM.
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  Again, some shops as high as -125 Now, next one for you, 7:10
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  PM Eastern Time, let's go to New York, Pittsburgh Pirates
• 6:08
  visiting the New York Mets. Now going into it, we got the
• 6:11
  Pirates struggling this year, 14 and 27.
• 6:15
  They did just take two or three against the Braves, though.
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  They won four to three yesterday as a + 190 home dog.
• 6:20
  Meanwhile, the Mets, 26 and 15, off to a great start, just took
• 6:24
  two or three against the Cubs. They won 6 to 2 yesterday as a
• 6:27
  -, 130 home favorite. So pitching match up here, we
• 6:30
  got the Pirates going with the righty phenom Paul Skeens 3 and
• 6:33
  four 2.77 ERA. Mets meanwhile, going to go with
• 6:37
  the lefty David Peterson. He's two and two 3 point O 5
• 6:40
  ERA. So what are we seeing across the
• 6:43
  market? Well, interestingly enough,
• 6:45
  Skeens as a dog plus money. Pros don't like it.
• 6:49
  Pros are fading Skeens, pros are going Mets.
• 6:51
  Give me the Mets here, guys. Mets open this game around a -,
• 6:54
  135 home favorite. We've now seen the Mets get
• 6:57
  steamed up to around -160 some shops even as high as -165 good
• 7:02
  bet splits on the Mets at DraftKings, 74% bets, 82%
• 7:06
  dollars. At circa 69% bets, 99% dollars.
• 7:11
  So heavy, heavy bet splits there in favor of the Mets.
• 7:14
  Sharper wagers in their favor. A lot of system matches on New
• 7:18
  York. I have 12 lit up on the Mets
• 7:20
  today home favorites with off a win with a winning record 93 and
• 7:24
  4567 percent 7% ROI this year. Non division home favorites off
• 7:29
  a win with steam $0.05 or more 65 and 30 two 8% ROI 67% win
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  rate Monday Home favorites with line movement in their
• 7:38
  direction. 20 and seven. It's been a really good system.
• 7:41
  74 percent 19% ROI this year. Then favorites with a line move
• 7:45
  in their direction who made the playoffs the previous year.
• 7:48
  So your favorite, you're expected to win, you're a good
• 7:50
  team, you made the playoffs and the markets moving in your
• 7:52
  favor. That system is 143 and 6968
• 7:56
  percent, 8% ROI. New York, by the way, good
• 8:00
  correlative betting favorite, low total.
• 8:02
  So we have the line moving toward the favorite.
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  We got this total very low. 7 fair amount of expected runs
• 8:07
  scored. More likely to come from quote
• 8:09
  UN quote that better team. Mets have the better offense.
• 8:11
  They're hitting 25551 homers, 199 runs scored.
• 8:16
  Pirates only hitting 220, 28 homers, 127 runs scored.
• 8:20
  Mets are hitting 260 at home this year.
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  That's the 8th best in baseball. Pirates are only hitting 210 on
• 8:25
  the road. That ranks 29th.
• 8:27
  And then little home Rd. action. Mets 15 and four at home.
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  Great record. Pittsburgh 5 and 14 on the road.
• 8:34
  Awful record. So it surprises me a bit that
• 8:36
  Skeens is usually a public play and you know, maybe he's usually
• 8:40
  a favorite or very short dog. No, no, no, this is a dog.
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  Skeens that's become more of a dog.
• 8:46
  I want to follow the sharp action on the Mets.
• 8:48
  Give me the Mets, guys. I got a -, 160.
• 8:51
  I think you should still get a -, 160 bet MGMESPN bet, but some
• 8:55
  books are even a little higher. Closer to -165 Last bet of the
• 8:59
  night. Let's go to Seattle.
• 9:01
  Let's get some, Let's get some sushi.
• 9:03
  What do you say? Yankees?
• 9:04
  Seattle Mariners, 9:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
• 9:08
  Yankees come into this 123 and 17.
• 9:11
  Just took two or three though against the A's.
• 9:13
  They won 12 to 2 yesterday as a -, 150 Rd. favorite.
• 9:17
  On the flip side, the Mariners 22 and 17, they just got swept
• 9:20
  by the Jays. They lost 9 to 1 yesterday as a
• 9:22
  -, 185 home favorite. So pitch a match up tonight for
• 9:27
  the series opener. We got the Yankees going with
• 9:29
  the righty Clark Schmidt. He's O 114.79 ERA.
• 9:33
  Mariners going with Emerson Hancock, fellow righty one and
• 9:36
  one 5.7 O ERA. What have we seen across the
• 9:39
  market? Well, we got some steam on the
• 9:42
  Bronx Bombers. Yankees open -130 Yankees are
• 9:45
  now up to -145 some shops, shops even up to -150 so clear steam
• 9:52
  in favor of the Yankees. That's what's look pretty good
• 9:55
  on New York. 80% bets, 82% dollars at DraftKings, 77% bets,
• 10:00
  99% dollars at Circa. So I like that, especially that
• 10:05
  split at Circa. Big low bets, higher dollars on
• 10:08
  New York system matches. I got 4 lit up on the Yankees.
• 10:11
  We have favorites who made the playoffs the previous season 199
• 10:15
  and one 1364 percent 4% ROI. We also have favorites with line
• 10:19
  movement in their direction. Made the playoffs 143 and 6968
• 10:24
  percent 8% ROI. We have New York correlative
• 10:27
  betting favorite low total told this one is 8.
• 10:30
  If your amount of expected run scored more likely to come from
• 10:33
  quote UN quote the better team was expected to win.
• 10:35
  We got a non division favorite system match.
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  Lack of familiarity benefiting the better team.
• 10:40
  Big edge at the plate. Yankees are hitting 263 on the
• 10:43
  year, 70 home runs, 235 runs scored.
• 10:47
  Mariners only hitting 24353 homers, 192 runs scored.
• 10:52
  New York hitting 257 against righty's this year, 5th best in
• 10:56
  baseball. Seattle's only hitting 248
• 10:58
  against Righty's. That's 14th.
• 11:00
  And then big discrepancy. Home Rd.
• 11:02
  Yankees are the number one. Did you guys know this?
• 11:04
  They're the number one hitting team on the road this year.
• 11:07
  They're hitting 276 first in baseball.
• 11:09
  Mariners only hitting 217 at home.
• 11:11
  That ranks 28th. So we got steam.
• 11:14
  We got good bet, splits, system matches, better offense.
• 11:18
  Let's see if the Yankees can get a win for us tonight.
• 11:20
  Guys, I'm on the Yankees -145 S Red Sox, Mets, and Yankees.
• 11:24
  Can we find a way to get two of those?
• 11:26
  That is the goal. Now over to the NBA.
• 11:30
  Of course, I'm rooting for the Celtics tonight, but I didn't
• 11:33
  play them. They did open.
• 11:35
  What was it -6 1/2? Some shops are down to 6.
• 11:39
  Totals pretty much stayed at two 8 1/2.
• 11:42
  But I do have a plan, the Timberwolves and the Warriors.
• 11:44
  So this one is a little bit intriguing to me for a couple
• 11:46
  different reasons. So this is your late game
• 11:48
  tonight. 10:00 This game is on ESPN and we have the Warriors
• 11:55
  with a 2 to one series lead. Remember we had the the Warriors
• 12:00
  win the first one, then Steph Curry got hurt and the T Wolves
• 12:04
  have won the last two. So Warriors are down 2 to one at
• 12:07
  home. Now, we have seen this line move
• 12:09
  a little bit toward the Warriors because you open this game at
• 12:13
  most shops with the T wolves -5 1/2 and a lot of books are now
• 12:18
  down to five. You're still some 5 1/2's out
• 12:20
  there. But that was kind of notable to
• 12:21
  me that the line dipped a little bit toward the Warriors because
• 12:24
  they're only getting 45% bets, 30% bets at at Circa.
• 12:30
  But I'm going to focus on the total because it's very low.
• 12:34
  But I think there's a little bit of an inch, a little bit of A an
• 12:37
  opportunity here, I should say, to root for the over.
• 12:41
  This total opened at 199 1/2, about as low as it gets.
• 12:45
  This is like 90s basketball. But we have seen this total.
• 12:49
  It's still 199 1/2 at a few shops.
• 12:51
  That's important, DraftKings and Bet MGM.
• 12:53
  But a lot of books are up to 200 or 200 1/2.
• 12:57
  So it's not like this thing has gotten down to one 98197.
• 13:00
  It's actually stayed the same or risen.
• 13:02
  If we look at the bet splits here at DraftKings, 81% bets,
• 13:06
  89% dollars on the over. At Circa, 73% bets, 94% dollars
• 13:12
  on the over. So the total has stayed the same
• 13:14
  or risen. We got low bets, higher dollars
• 13:16
  at both DraftKings and Circa. If we look at another angle here
• 13:21
  in terms of kind of a short spread line move over, you know,
• 13:25
  we talked about it quite a bit in college hoops.
• 13:27
  Like, you know, if Gonzaga is a 25 1/2 point favorite, you know,
• 13:31
  the total is 155. Get up big, take your foot off
• 13:33
  the gas, big spread under. But I like to play overs when
• 13:37
  it's kind of a short spread and the lines moving toward the dog
• 13:40
  because again, you open this one T wolves -5 1/2.
• 13:43
  A lot of books are down to five. So that's telling me that maybe
• 13:46
  there's a little movement here toward the Warriors.
• 13:48
  Maybe it's a more competitive game, maybe it's back and forth.
• 13:51
  If we need overtime, we need overtime.
• 13:53
  But I like the fact that it's kind of moving toward the dog
• 13:55
  and it is a quote UN quote short spread.
• 13:58
  Then we layer in a couple other angles here.
• 14:00
  If you look at Rhythm, who does a great job of powering this
• 14:04
  pod, I have a model on this game that has a final total of two O
• 14:09
  3.9. So basically 2O4.
• 14:13
  All we need here is actually 200.
• 14:15
  This is a big shop for the best line because remember I told you
• 14:18
  there's a lot of books at 200 1/2, but not only is it shop for
• 14:21
  the best line, but get the best price.
• 14:24
  So if you look right now at DraftKings, it's 199 1/2 -110
• 14:30
  both sides. If you look at Bet MGM, it's 199
• 14:33
  1/2, but -115 to the over. And again, the other books are
• 14:37
  up to 200 1/2. So I played the over 199 1/2 at
• 14:42
  DraftKings at -110 Juice. That's your best number
• 14:45
  basically. You also look at our friends at
• 14:48
  Juice Reel. They have an 8% sharp mush edge
• 14:51
  on the over. So on Juice Reel, everyone who
• 14:54
  has downloaded the app is a member of Juice Reel, has synced
• 14:56
  up their sports books. 8% more of the sharper winning betters
• 14:59
  are playing the over as opposed to the more losing betters who
• 15:02
  are leaning under. Again, it's low for a reason.
• 15:06
  This is going to be a rock fight.
• 15:07
  We're going to need 50 points 1/4, but it has gone up a little
• 15:10
  bit. We got low bets, higher dollars
• 15:12
  at DraftKings and Circa. I have a sharp mush edge from
• 15:15
  Juice Reel. You can shop for the best line.
• 15:17
  Get over 199 1/2 -. 110 juice and our friends at Rhythm have a
• 15:21
  final total of two O 3.9. So basically 2O four.
• 15:26
  So I said you know what let's take a shot on this over.
• 15:29
  I know there's no Steph Curry, but he's now at a couple games
• 15:32
  now. So hopefully you kind of at
• 15:33
  least you know he's not playing. Maybe some of these other guys
• 15:36
  role players shoot the ball well, that is the goal, but I'm
• 15:39
  taking a shot on this T Wolves warriors over 199 1/2 Lastly to
• 15:45
  finish up the pod. I bet you didn't expect to talk
• 15:48
  football today, did you? But if you have not known or
• 15:52
  noticed or found out about this, there's an injury or a
• 15:56
  retirement, I should say. I guess it was an injury first
• 15:59
  to a starting quarterback in the NFL.
• 16:01
  David is a Derek Carr. Yeah, David Carr was the brother
• 16:05
  who got sacked a million times. First round pick from the
• 16:07
  Texans. So anyway, Derek Carr.
• 16:10
  Derek Carr, who was with obviously the Raiders for a
• 16:12
  while, switched and went to the Saints.
• 16:15
  He has to retire. Where he did retire, he's got
• 16:18
  some degenerative is it shoulder or elbow?
• 16:20
  Something's wrong with his arm. So he's retired, he's gone.
• 16:24
  We've seen a big move in the wind total department for the
• 16:28
  New Orleans Saints. Now, prior to Derek Carr
• 16:31
  retiring, their wind total was 6 1/2 and it was over -120 this is
• 16:36
  from ESPN bet. Now that Derek Carr has retired,
• 16:40
  the wind total was down to 5 1/2.
• 16:43
  It's now 5 1/2 / -, 130. But I'm playing this under,
• 16:47
  guys. I'm going under 5 1/2 at plus
• 16:49
  110. You're getting a little bit of
• 16:50
  plus money. You can shop around and find
• 16:53
  other numbers like Caesar's is 5 1/2, but the under is minus one
• 16:58
  O 5. Now DraftKings and Bet MGM have
• 17:00
  a 6 1/2 win total, but the under is like -180 - 200.
• 17:05
  That just is, you know, yeah, if they win 6 and I get a 5 1/2,
• 17:08
  I'm mad I lose. But also, it's a big price to
• 17:10
  lay on a futures bet. But here's my thinking.
• 17:14
  On the one hand, no Derek Carr. So we've seen this total fall 6
• 17:18
  and half down to five and half. Makes total sense.
• 17:20
  You guys have, I don't know if you remember, but the Saints
• 17:23
  last year went 5:00 and 12:00 with Derek Carr, obviously.
• 17:27
  And they actually were five and five with Carr.
• 17:30
  Remember they started 2 and O. They crushed it was.
• 17:32
  I forgot who they crushed it was.
• 17:34
  I know the Cowboys are one of them.
• 17:35
  Was it Carolina? Anyway, I forget, but they're
• 17:40
  five and five with Carr. They started 2 and O, but they
• 17:44
  were O and seven with Spencer Rattler.
• 17:47
  So basically with Carr, they were a 500 team when he was out.
• 17:51
  They couldn't win a single game and it got crazy at the end of
• 17:53
  Spencer Rattler. You know, I remember I lost
• 17:56
  because he was getting like, what was it, 14 1/2 at Green Bay
• 17:59
  last year? Don't remind me.
• 18:00
  But anyway, my play on this under is that the total has
• 18:03
  fallen and this is a bet against bad group of quarterbacks.
• 18:08
  So you ask yourself, OK, who's going to play QB for the Saints?
• 18:12
  Well, it could be Spencer Rattler from last year.
• 18:15
  They have Jacob Hayner, who was a Fresno State guy, but they
• 18:18
  drafted Tyler Shuck. I think that's how you pronounce
• 18:21
  it. It's pronounced.
• 18:22
  It's basically SHOUGH, but he was the big tall kid at
• 18:26
  Louisville. He's a little bit older, second
• 18:28
  round pick. But even even if it's Spencer
• 18:30
  Rattler or Tyler Show, Shuck or Hayner, that's a bad QB room.
• 18:35
  Maybe Shuck surprises and he plays well, but I have a
• 18:39
  philosophy of fading rookie coaches and rookie quarterbacks.
• 18:42
  Now, if you remember, I had the Patriots under 4 1/2 win total
• 18:46
  last year. They ended up cashing, of
• 18:49
  course, which is great, but the whole idea was similar sort of
• 18:52
  thing across the market. The Patriots win total, I
• 18:55
  remember, I believe it opened 5 1/2 and got that down to 4 1/2.
• 18:58
  So with this Saints one at 6 1/2 down to 5 1/2, very similar.
• 19:02
  You have a rookie head coach, Kellen Moore.
• 19:05
  You have a rookie quarterback, Tyler Shook.
• 19:08
  Or again, maybe it's Rattler. But look at their division as
• 19:10
  well. Favorite to win this NFC South
• 19:13
  is Tampa Bay. Their plus 110.
• 19:15
  Their win total is 9 1/2. They were ten and seven last
• 19:18
  year. Atlanta plus 210.
• 19:20
  Second best odds. Their win total is 7 1/2.
• 19:24
  Penix, they went 8-9 last year. Carolina plus 410.
• 19:28
  Their win total is 6 1/2. They went 5 and 12.
• 19:31
  Obviously have Bryce Young. They drafted Ted McMillan and
• 19:34
  then the the Saints plus 950 to win the the S 5 1/2 win total
• 19:40
  5:00 and 12:00 last year. Remember, their first round pick
• 19:42
  was Kelvin Banks, the tackle from Texas.
• 19:45
  So Long story short, the win total market is dropping.
• 19:50
  They don't really have a quarterback, they have a rookie
• 19:52
  coach. They are expected to be the last
• 19:55
  in their division and this is a team that I want to fade, I want
• 19:59
  to bet against. So if you want us, if you want
• 20:01
  to get a better number, you can go 6 1/2 under -180 at
• 20:04
  DraftKings. But I actually put this one in
• 20:07
  officially for me, my first win total bet.
• 20:09
  I know we're a ways away, but I don't want to see the juice move
• 20:12
  or maybe this thing gets down to five.
• 20:14
  So I'm going Saints with no Derek Carr.
• 20:17
  Fade rookie coach, fade rookie quarterback, tough division.
• 20:21
  You know, you think, kind of think this division stinks, but
• 20:24
  I would argue, you know, they're the smelliest of all the stinky
• 20:26
  teams here. But I'm going under 5 1/2 + 110.
• 20:31
  I got that ESPN bet. And there's also rumors of do
• 20:34
  they tank for Arch Banning And how good is Arch banning?
• 20:37
  I don't know. He ran the ball a lot, didn't
• 20:39
  even really throw it. But anyway, we'll find out this
• 20:41
  year. He's supposed to start for
• 20:42
  Texas. But will Archie, who played for
• 20:45
  the Saints, sees what his grandson take over first overall
• 20:50
  pick. We shall see.
• 20:51
  That's an early play. You can tell you can fade do
• 20:53
  whatever you want, but I am pot committed under 5 1/2 + 110 win
• 20:59
  total for the Saints. So that about does it for
• 21:02
  episode. What are we out here rattling
• 21:04
  off episodes left and right? 276 of the All Systems Go sports
• 21:08
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 21:10
  Of course. This is the part of the pod
• 21:12
  where we wrap things up and I start first by saying thank you.
• 21:15
  Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
• 21:17
  busy lives to pull up a chair to the virtual bar and sweat some
• 21:20
  sharp data-driven breakdowns with me.
• 21:22
  If you do enjoy the pod, could you do me a solid help me grow
• 21:25
  the pod by giving it a five star review, Whether it's Spotify or
• 21:29
  iTunes goes a long way. If you want to leave a nice
• 21:31
  comment in the review section or click the follow button or
• 21:35
  recommend the pod to a friend, that would also be very, very
• 21:38
  awesome of you. Next, if you enjoy this style of
• 21:41
  betting breakdown, win, lose or draw, you know that these are
• 21:44
  bets based on numbers and data, not opinion and bias, and you've
• 21:47
  seen some success by staying true to what the numbers tell
• 21:50
  you. If that is a case and you want
• 21:52
  to learn more about data-driven betting, we have a friend of
• 21:55
  yours who you know could use some tips on data-driven
• 21:57
  betting. You know you should do.
• 21:59
  You should go to Amazon.com and type in the Everything Guide to
• 22:03
  Sports betting. It's the first book I ever
• 22:05
  wrote. It's got everything I've learned
• 22:06
  in the industry, how lines are set, how and why they move, how
• 22:09
  to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to
• 22:11
  place a bet in person or online, how to shop for the best line,
• 22:14
  how to set up a bankroll management plan, all included in
• 22:17
  the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 22:19
  While you're at it, stay on Amazon.com and then type in the
• 22:22
  NFL Sharp Betting playbook. It's my new book.
• 22:26
  It comes out August 12th. You know what guys, you only
• 22:29
  just realized Today's May 12th, 3 months away from the new book
• 22:32
  dropping. I cannot wait.
• 22:34
  If you want to do me a big favor, please think about pre
• 22:37
  ordering a copy. It cost you 24 bucks, but I
• 22:40
  think you're going to enjoy it if you enjoy the pot.
• 22:42
  It's got all the tips, the secrets, the strategies that we
• 22:45
  always talk about. Maybe maybe for you or for a
• 22:48
  friend or buddy of yours could hopefully help them to have a
• 22:51
  better and successful NFL season.
• 22:54
  So pre-order copy of the NFL Sharp Betting playbook, Buy a
• 22:58
  copy of the Everything Guide to Sports betting, bring them to
• 23:01
  the sports book, I'll sign them for you.
• 23:02
  I'll buy a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat some games
• 23:05
  together next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
• 23:08
  Juice really yet? My two favorite sports betting
• 23:10
  apps, Rhythm. Fantastic for their AI backed
• 23:13
  models and predictions for game bets and player props.
• 23:16
  Tomorrow we will have our 4:00 Rhythm live stream.
• 23:18
  Looking forward to that which I'll be hosting.
• 23:20
  You can always follow me on Twitter at Josh under score
• 23:23
  Insights. We'll go live right at 4:00
• 23:24
  because we always do on Tuesdays.
• 23:26
  But then also Juice Reel where I'm going to pass the hat.
• 23:29
  Hold out the tip jar. This pod is free.
• 23:31
  It cost you nothing to listen to this pod, but if you enjoy it,
• 23:34
  you want to support the pod, please could you sign up for the
• 23:37
  $4.99 a week best bet picks? That's right 5 bucks.
• 23:43
  You got 5 pods a week, a dollar a pod.
• 23:45
  Hopefully you beat some closing lines support the team, but you
• 23:48
  can get those all systems go best bet picks from the buy sell
• 23:51
  page bottom right in the juice reel app.
• 23:54
  You're also going to get the robo Jackson official best bet
• 23:56
  picks. The sharp mush indicators.
• 23:58
  The arbitrage plays the shop for the best line futures.
• 24:01
  Sync up your sports books. Get a running report card of
• 24:04
  your action. Get real dollar amounts bets in
• 24:06
  dollars for every game spread money line in total for everyone
• 24:10
  who's synced up their books. So download rhythm, download
• 24:12
  Juice Reel, give them a five star review in the App Store.
• 24:16
  Next, do you have a live odds page #1 if you don't, I don't
• 24:20
  know how you're betting on sports.
• 24:21
  Sports betting is hard enough. How do you know what games are
• 24:24
  available that day? How do you know what the lines
• 24:26
  are? How do you know what the line
• 24:27
  opened at, how it moved? How do you shop for the best
• 24:30
  line, get the best price? How do you pull up the line
• 24:32
  history, see all the moves in between?
• 24:34
  How do you pick off good numbers?
• 24:35
  See the board light up when you know big market setting book
• 24:39
  like Pinnacle or Chris or Circa moves a number and you know you
• 24:42
  got a minute or two to hop on a good number before a slow moving
• 24:46
  book adjusts. Well, you can do all that with
• 24:48
  Odds logic. I want you guys to give Odds
• 24:51
  Logic a shot. If you don't have a live odds
• 24:53
  page, you need one. And if you have one, but maybe
• 24:55
  it's free, but it's slow, it's delayed, it doesn't give you a
• 24:58
  lot of books, doesn't update in real time, or you have one and
• 25:01
  it just costs a lot of money. They're very expensive ones out
• 25:04
  there. You know, you should do switch
• 25:06
  to Odds Logic. I have a special link to go to
• 25:09
  that's going to give you a 7 day free trial and 50% off your
• 25:12
  first month. All you got to do is go to
• 25:14
  oddslogic.com/josh 123. That's oddslogic.com/josh 123.
• 25:22
  First one's on me, next one's on you.
• 25:24
  We'll post about the book and and sweat some games together.
• 25:28
  Lastly, of course, I'll leave you with this, whether I see you
• 25:31
  at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
• 25:34
  Brooklyn New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
• 25:36
  Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or plain Ridge Park
• 25:39
  casino MGM Springfield. Of course, the Nash in
• 25:43
  Nashville, New Hampshire and my neck of the woods are out in the
• 25:45
  desert where the true grinders get down or Billy Walters sends
• 25:48
  his number runners where the lowest juice possible is found
• 25:50
  at the South Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping
• 25:53
  in the stadium swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
• 25:56
  Circo, you're going to walk up to me and you're going to show
• 25:59
  me maybe a buy low Celtics series price ticket.
• 26:02
  I don't want to get ahead of ourselves, but the Celts, who
• 26:05
  knows, maybe they maybe they roll now we shall see.
• 26:08
  But again, first one's on me, next one's on you.
• 26:10
  We'll sweat some games. Have the book together.
• 26:13
  That sounds pretty good. Lastly, hot, cold, up, down,
• 26:18
  treading water, grinding. Remember, sports betting is a
• 26:20
  difficult business. It ain't easy.
• 26:23
  You think it's easy? It's not.
• 26:24
  You got to overcome the juice, overcome razor sharp lines.
• 26:27
  The odds maker said avoid bad beats and bullpens blowing it
• 26:30
  for us or ref screwing us. Again, it's it's difficult, the
• 26:34
  human element, Albert, Remember, it's not impossible.
• 26:37
  We just got to stick to the blueprint, stick to the system.
• 26:41
  You guys might know it by now. You probably do.
• 26:43
  But looking for games that fit our model betting games with our
• 26:46
  head and not our heart against the public, with the house, with
• 26:48
  the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that closing line
• 26:53
  value. If we can do that long term,
• 26:54
  we're going to be successful sports betters.
• 26:57
  So have a fantastic Monday night, everyone.
• 27:00
  Let's see if we can get some winners here.
• 27:02
  Already got a win total in the NFL under our belt.
• 27:04
  Let's get some points in the Warriors game and get some
• 27:07
  winners on the diamond. Have a good luck everyone.
• 27:10
  I will see you tomorrow for a big Tuesday edition.
• 27:13
  That'll be episode 277 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
• 27:17
  podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
• 27:20
  great Monday night.