Latest / Toadstool Sports / Sunday BEST BETS | No Playoffs | MLB & WNBA | 5/31/26

Transcript

Sunday BEST BETS | No Playoffs | MLB & WNBA | 5/31/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm. Man, a hole in
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: your chips, black coffee.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: On the felt.
• 0:22
  Speaker 3: Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three teen poulette turned the dust in your head. Now
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: you stare at the chips like they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Your name steal mean something on somebody for show?
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Put the glass down, baby, look at me, now, hold on,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: hold on nothing.
• 0:54
  Speaker 4: Nice, now hold on me, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, stay with me.
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: Now, what's up? Everybody? It's sewed back with you with
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: Toad Seel Sports Sunday almost its Saturday, Sunday, May thirty,
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: first last day of May. Whatever, one and two. On
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: the show yesterday, Drew Rasmussen gave up four runs in
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: the first inning on two hits, Like, how likely is
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: that to ever happen? It's fucking bullshit. So that under
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: was over immediately in the Tampa Anaheim game, There's nothing
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: you could do about it. It's just complete fucking shit.
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: And then Toronto was a winner in the first five.
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: They should have won the full game. And I know
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: there were a bunch of professionals on Toronto full game
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: in that one, but I was worried about the bullpen
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: being over extended. And they gave up five runs in
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: the bottom of the ninth inning and blew whatever the
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: hell lead it was. They were losing the game early
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: one noth thing, and they took the lead in the
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: fourth inning. They were winning for us at the end
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: of five. They extended the lead further. Then they blew
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: the whole thing in the ninth inning. I think they
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: were winning by four runs going into the bottom of
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: the ninth ridiculous, but it makes me feel good about
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: going first five on it because that was the one winner.
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: And then yeah, fuck the thunder. I mean, what do
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: you want, Like, what do you want me to say?
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: They played pretty powhorling. There's nothing else to say about it.
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: It's fucking bullshit, dude. Whatever you heard my handicap on
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: that game. I would make that play again every fucking time.
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: It's way more like to win than it isn't. I'm
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: done with that. Whatever. Let's talk about today. I don't
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: know what's going on with these boards, these screens that
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: I used to look at the odds like wager talk updated.
• 3:15
  Speaker 5: There's it's an odds logic integration.
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: We don't really see any of the total percentages still,
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: just like yesterday, pregame has been out for like a month,
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: like more than that. They haven't fixed their shit. I'm
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: fucking pissed.
• 3:29
  Speaker 5: Whatever.
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: We have basically all baseball today, and there is one
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: WNBA game today Baseball twelve to fifteen Eastern Peacock, Toronto
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: and Baltimore finishing a four game series. Baltimore won the
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: game yesterday. That was the only game they won of
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: the series so far, so Toronto is leading the series
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: two to one. I think both teams will still show
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: up for this. I mean it's a divisional series. I
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: think the games matter. Neither team is on the verge
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: of a sweet peer. Toronto's got to be worried about
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: their bullpen usage though, which as you can see here,
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: has been quite a bit. They used five guys yesterday
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: to out of a bullpen where they already had pitched
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: a bullpen game the game before that, and they're going
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: with another bullpen game today. So none of that looks
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: good to me. Even though they generally have the better bullpen,
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: Baltimore has more arms available out of it. Today, it
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: looks like they used three guys yesterday. Baltimore's ranked nineteenth
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: in bullpen based on WHIP, Toronto's twelfth. But as I
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: just showed you, it looks like Toronto's rest situation kind
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: of negates any edge they would have there. Hitting wise,
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: Toronto's actually been pretty bad. They're twenty third. This is
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: based on ops. Orioles are eleventh, so Baltimore actually has
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: hit all right. Spencer Miles is listed as a starter
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: for the Blue Jays here. Like I said, I don't
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: think he's gonna go that deep here because they're usually
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: using him as the beginning of like a pen game.
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: Whenever he goes out there. He's got good numbers two
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: point one six ERA, one point oh two WHIP. He
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: did go into the fifth inning the last couple times
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: out against the Yankees in Miami, and he pitched pretty
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: well there, so that may be what they have him
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: do because they need to save some of these arms,
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: so he may be able to get into the fifth
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: inning again here. I still don't really trust what I'm
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: seeing here, although his numbers are good on the season
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: thirty two strikeouts, nine walks, twenty five hits, thirty three
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: and a third innings pitched numbers against Baltimore non existence.
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: They haven't seen him before, so there is a chance
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: Miles does pitch okay while he's out there, but I
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: don't really want anything to do with Toronto's bullpend here.
• 5:42
  Speaker 5: Baltimore is going.
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: With Kyle Bradish, who at least is an actual starting
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: pitcher three point eight six ERA, but his whip is
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: way too high one point four to seven. He's putting
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: too many guys on base. He's been good at home though,
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: two point eighty six homey. RA pitched pretty well in
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: his last few out. He's like basically this entire month,
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: he's been good, including a six inning, one hit shutout
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: against the Yankees, a couple of starts in there against
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: Tampa on another one against the A's, so these are
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: not easy offenses to face, and he's actually been decent.
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: So he is pitching better right now this month twenty
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: one hits, a lot in twenty eight and a third innings,
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: thirty strikeouts thirteen walks is a little bit high, but
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: he's definitely pitching a little bit better right now. On
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: the season, he does have fewer than one hit per
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: inning thanks to this month, more than one strikeout per
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: inning in. His walk rate is definitely too high, but
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: he looks like he's in better form currently. However, he
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: does not have good numbers against the Blue Jays. They
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: only have six batters who have faced him before, and
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: it's primarily Vlad Guerrero and George Springer built do a
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: lot of damage against them. The other guys have done nothing. Basically,
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: fifty one at bats two ninety four average allowed eight
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: to fifty five ops, five to four strikeout walk ratio.
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: But it's like, how much do you want to weigh
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: this when it's really two hitters that do all of
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: that to him. I don't know, man, it almost has
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: me more like leaning more towards Bradish actually potentially doing
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: okay here. Even though my first reaction on this was
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: this looked like an over game because you got a
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: bullpen situation up against Bradish with not good matchup numbers.
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: But I don't know. Then I start kind of thinking
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: about it. I don't know, you could make an argument
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: for first five under here. Obviously I would not make
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: that a full gameplay. If you went over with this,
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: you would have I think you would have to go
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: full game take advantage of the bullpen issues that these
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: teams might have here, but first five, I could potentially
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: see fewer runs being scored early in this game. That's
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: basically what I got on this The money is coming
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: in on Baltimore a little bit, maybe with the way
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: that they won yesterday, ending a little bit of a
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: losing streak. I guess maybe the thought is that I'll
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: give them some momentum. I don't know. I guess maybe
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: it's Bradish being a real starter against Toronto's bullpen situation.
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: But then again, Bradish does still have bad matchup numbers,
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: even though it is only against two guys. Really, Miles
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: has never been seen before by Baltimore, so they might
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: actually struggle against him. Fifty three percent of tickets on Toronto,
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: fifty one percent of the cash on Baltimore. Obviously, this
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: is not one of my plays. That's a difficult game
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: to get a grasp on. First five under maybe makes
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: some sense, but I want nothing to do with that.
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: This next game I will do something with though, and
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: hopefully it's not gonna be what happened the other day,
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: because it's gonna be the same thing I tried in
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: the first game of the series. It didn't work out.
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: I know we're going against a Pittsburgh offense that does
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: well at home. I know, but I'm going with the
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: pitching here. Minnesota Pittsburgh first five innings under four minus
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: one fifteen is what I found the price at out there.
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: Multiple different books had that price. I like the starting
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: pitching here, dude, and the odds makers like right away
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: you see the total in this game seven and a half.
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: The oddsmakers are telling you they think this is gonna
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: be a lower scoring game here, and I agree, But
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: I don't want anything to do with the bullpens. I
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: don't like either bullpen, especially Minnesota. Minnesota did only use
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: two relief pitchers, but their bullpen is awful. This is
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: I'm talking about how many they used yesterday. Pittsburgh used five,
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: I think is what that is. Pittsburgh is the better bullpen,
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: the rank sixteenth. They're kind of a mediocre bullpen. Minnesota's
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: is bad at twenty eighth out of thirty, but I'm
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: taking them both out of the equation here. Pittsburgh's is
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: less rested, So no bullpens for me in this equation here. Yes,
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: the offenses are good. Pittsburgh is tied in sixth with
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: the White Sox. Who would ever think Wou'd be saying
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: that right now? And Minnesota's is fifteenth arranged by ops.
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: But looking at the starting pitchers, ZEBI math he uses
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: pitching for the Twins. I think he might have found
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: something out man figured some out because he's still pretty young.
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: He struggled a bit.
• 10:03
  Speaker 5: Early in his career.
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: He's a talented pitcher though so far this year he's
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: got a two point three seventy R point eighty four whip.
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: I know he's been worse on the road four point
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: five roadyr and not great, but it's a very small
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: sample size. It was one road start against a hot
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: hitting White Sox team and he still went six innings,
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: held him to three or in runs, and that was
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: still a low scoring game, and he gave up a
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: home run to Murcamie that kind of did some of
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: that damage there. He settled down, he was actually bad
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: early in that game, had settled way down, and there
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: is an argument to be made that the White Sox
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: should not have scored that many runs with the lack
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: of offense they had in that game. So I'm I
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: actually like what I see out of what Matthews did
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: in this game. It was the game landed four in
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: the first five innings in that game, but that was
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: just because of what I think was a little bit
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: of an outlier amount of scoring at the beginning. Matthews
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: has allowed five run so far in nineteen innings, fourteen hits,
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: a lot, seventeen strikeouts, two walks, and he faced Houston
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: in there as well. That's a pretty good offense as well.
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: Miami not as good, but I like what I've seen
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: on him so far. I think he can he can
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: continue to do well against a Pittsburgh team that the
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: only guy that's ever faced him is Horowitz, and I
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: know he's two for two with a home run. That's
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: not good for Matthews, I know, but for the most part,
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: he's completely unfamiliar to Pittsburgh, so I think that is
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: an advantage to him. So I will side with Matthews here.
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: But then Brax and Ashcraft is pitching on the other
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: side for the Pirates. He's been really good. Two point
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: seven five VRA one point zero five WHIP. I know
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: he's worse at home. I know we're going against the
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: home road splits a little bit, but a three point
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: four to four era is not exactly bad, and he's
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: been in good form basically this entire month. He had
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: one start where he gave up a few too many
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: runs against Philadelphia. Well, he still only gave up four.
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: I'm not gonna really knock him for that. He's got
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: a thirty one to five strike out walk ratio this
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: month and twenty eight innings, so excuse me. Twenty eight
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: hits allowed in thirty four to two thirds innings. He's
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: allowed one or zero earned run in all but that
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: one outing against Philadelphia I just mentioned. And he faced
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: the Cubs his last time out. That's a good offense.
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: He held them down. Ashcraft is in really good form
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: right now on the course of the season. He's got
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: some strong numbers way below one strike up per inning,
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: strike out rate above one per inning walk rate not
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: too bad either. I like what we're getting out of
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: him right now, and Minnesota has not seen much of him.
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: Only Arcia and Caratini have ever faced it before. They're
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: zero for three against them, no strikeouts, no walks. So
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna do it first five innings under four. I
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: like both starting pitchers. This is also the type of
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: game where nobody's gonna play an under in a game
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: like this, nobody knows who these pitchers are. Who's gonna
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: want to put their money on a guy named Zebbi?
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean again again. His middle name
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: is Zebulon, so his nickname is Zebbie. I think his
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: actual first name is like Dave or something, David daniel
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: On some crap like that. Whatever, Zebulon, get it done
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: for us man under verse five Minnesota Pittsburgh.
• 13:19
  Speaker 5: That's one of my two plays today.
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: This next game up I almost put on the card
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: San Diego and Washington. I like the over in this game,
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: and this one almost made the cut for me. Washington
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: won yesterday nine to four. This has been a high
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: scoring series, dude.
• 13:35
  Speaker 5: Each team has won one game.
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: We've seen twelve and thirteen runs score in the first
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: two games of the series. Washington notorious for high scoring
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: games at home. They're pitching tends to suck at home.
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: Their offense is very capable so and their bullpen is
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: bad as well. They used three relief pitchers yesterday. San
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: Diego is a good bullpen, though they used two relief pitchers.
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: San Diego's ranked fifth in bolt been here right now.
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: Washington is twenty fifth offensively it's the complete opposite Washington's
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: fourth san Diego's twenty ninth. But I think there is
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: gonna be hitting here. This starting pitching matchup looks atrocious.
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: Combined with one bad bullpen from Washington, I think we're
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: gonna see runs here. Griffin Canning is pitching for San Diego. Yeah,
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: things have not worked out so far for him. I mean,
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: if you watch my show, you know I've had a
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: negative things to say about him in the past, mostly
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: just that he sucks. He's got a seven point five
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: four ERA so far first season with San Diego, one
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: point five to four whip that is all very bad.
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: His ERA on the road is thirty two point four,
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: but of course it's a very small sample size. It
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: was one road start against Milwaukee, but it was bad.
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: It was his worst start and he hasn't really pitched
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: that well, but he got rocked in that start. However,
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: I will give him credit. He pitched okay in his
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: last couple outings against the Dodgers and the Phillies.
• 15:01
  Speaker 5: Got to give him credit for that.
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: So one of my concerns is actually both starting pitchers here,
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: even though I think they're both trash, they're both actually
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: pitching a little bit better recently, so I am abstaining
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: from this game basically just for that reason. Canning, by
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: the way, has allowed almost exactly one hit per inning.
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: He does have more than one strike up per inning,
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: but his walk rate is also really high, and he
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: does not have good numbers against Washington. In fifty at bats,
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: three hundred batting average, eight sixty four ohps, allowed nine
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: to five strikeout walk ratiom so Canning does not have
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: good numbers here against Washington. Zach Lttel will be going
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: for Washington. He's not been pitching well this season either,
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: although like I said, this month he actually has been better.
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: But overall five point two to three ERA, one point
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: three to nine WHIP, he's been worse at home. A
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: lot of Washington's pitchers are five point six y five
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: home ERA. But I'm concerned learned about fading him like
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: he's been pitching better than Canning has recently.
• 16:04
  Speaker 5: Washington's won four of his.
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: Last five starts, and if you look at his last
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: three starts, he's gone five innings or more in each
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: of them. He's allowed two or fewer earned runs in
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: each of them, so he is actually pitching well currently. Granted,
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: the last two outings are against Cleveland and the Mets.
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: Those are not terrific offenses Baltimore before that, they're a
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: little bit better. His strikeout rate is low, though, so
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: that is one concern. But his walk rate this month
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: has been low. His hit rate has been low, so
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: he's not putting a lot of guys on base, so
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: that's good, even though he's not really fooling hitters. Over
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: the course of the season. His hit rate is worse
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: than that, and that's been his issue, hit ability. He's
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: allowed way more hits, or not way more hits, but
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: more hits in innings pitch, which is not good. He's
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: a loot a ton of home runs fifteen home runs,
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: but that number's gone way down. He's only allowed two
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: of them in May, so, like, what the fuck was
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: he doing in April? He allowed eleven home runs in
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: eight April. I don't even know if I've ever seen
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: a number that high. I'm gonna have to look and
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: see what the record amount of home runs allowed in
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: a month is. That's crazy, but he's gotten that under control.
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: It looks like the home run number against him has
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: dropped significantly in May, so that's at least good for him.
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: His strikeout rate is low. He doesn't strike guys out.
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: His walk rate wouldn't be that bad, but it looks
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: bad up against the lack of strikeouts. But whatever, But
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: I'm a little bit, you know, My hesitation is just
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: that Lttel is pitching better now against San Diego. He
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: does not have good numbers though, which you probably could predict,
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: although san Diego's offense is atrocious, but it does look
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: like they should be able to get something going against him.
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: By the way, things are so bad with San Diego's offense,
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: Tatis Junior, I believe yesterday he hit his first home
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: run of the year. That is pathetic, dude, when you're
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: considered to be one of the top power hitters in
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: your team's lineup and you did not hit your first
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: home run until the very end of May.
• 18:02
  Speaker 5: Like, what are we doing here?
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: I know San Diego is not a hit or friendly park,
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: but still not having any home runs to this point
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: is absolutely ridiculous. Any bat flipped too, like, oh yeah,
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: way to go guy. He's also allowed an inside the
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: park Grand Slam this year as well, with some horrific fielding.
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: If you guys, saw that. I think it was against
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: the Cardinals, against his father's team. He misplayed a ball
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: in the outfield and allowed and inside the park grand slam. Yeah,
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: things are not going well, even though San Diego has
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: a good record, but whatever, they shouldn't three twenty nine
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: batting average allowed nine to fifty five ops allowed by
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: latel to San Diego, So those numbers are bad. Like
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: I said, I would go over in this game. That
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: almost made the cut for me. The total is nine
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: and a half, though I think, and I have to
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: refresh this constantly, we see ninety two percent of tickets
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: and cash on the over here total is actually nine,
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: not nine and a half.
• 19:03
  Speaker 5: So you can get right on that key number nine.
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: Like I said, I like it. If I was gonna
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: add another play to my card, it would probably be that.
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I like the over in that game, even
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: though I know that series. It makes it look pretty
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: easy to play the over though, because that series has
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: just been an over series.
• 19:22
  Speaker 5: But there are reasons for that.
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: By the way. For the side, San Diego is favored
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: around minus one twenty fifty eight percent of the tickets
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: and cash on Washington though, which makes no sense.
• 19:35
  Speaker 5: I don't have a good feel for the side though
• 19:37
  Speaker 5: in that one.
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: I mean San Diego is the better team. They do
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: have a big bulpen edge if you want to factor
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: that in, but I don't have anything good on that.
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: I think I already mentioned Toronto and Baltimore. The money
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: was kind of indicating on Baltimore, right, although I think
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: it's shifted around a little bit.
• 19:53
  Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure I mentioned that already.
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: Baltimore a small favorite there, and then the other game,
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: I think I forgot to talk about the side in
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: Minnesota Pittsburgh. By the way, that under u is getting
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: money now in Minnesota Pittsburgh, so money agreeing with me
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: on that one, seventy three percent of tickets eighty seven
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: percent of the cash on.
• 20:11
  Speaker 5: The under in that one.
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: Money coming in on ZEBI in that one, which I
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: believe I already mentioned that. But yeah, so the money
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: backing Minnesota. Minnesota is a pretty decent sized underdog in
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: that game. I think that's part of the reason why
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: the money is coming in on Minnesota. And that one,
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: I think professional better is basically are looking at this line,
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: Oh god, Pittsburgh is like minus one fifty five, and
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: while yes they're the better team, they have a better,
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: well not a better, but they have a good starting
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: pitcher on the mound. I think what the professionals are
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: basically thinking is these starting pitchers are not Like, there's
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: not that wide of a gap between those two pitchers.
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: So if you're gonna give me that big of an
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: underdog price, and it's supposed to be a low scoring game,
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: every run is at a premium, so it kind of
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: makes sense to maybe grab whichever team is the underdog there,
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: if they're that big of an underdog. So I think
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: that's kind of the thing. Game there, Gerald, what's up,
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: mister Penze, what's up? Thanks for hanging out everybody. All right,
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: I'm all out of it today, man Anaheim, Tampa Bay.
• 21:11
  Speaker 5: I don't even want to talk about this series.
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean, I don't know what to tell
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: you about yesterday's game. After after that first inning, both
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: starting pitchers actually settled down in that game. I know
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: it doesn't look like it on the final score, but
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: I think Tampa Bay's bullpen got rocked in that game too.
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: Both the games in this series have been high scoring.
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: So far, each team has won a game. What do
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: we do with this? Well, Tampa Bay is the better team,
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: So I mean, that's kind of the way that I
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: started thinking about this. Tampa Bay did use a lot
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: of relief pitchers in that game yesterday though, because their
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: bullpen was failing. They used whatever that is five. Anaheim
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: is the worst of the two bullpens. Both bullpens are
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: not great. Anaheim used four. Tampa Bay does still have
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: a bullpen edge though, even though they're ranked eighteenth in
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: their ERA definitely is not good. Angels bullpen is one
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: of the worst. They're twenty ninth, really really bad. They're
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: just off of having the worst ERA now, which is
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: Houston and Kansas City combined are tied for that honor.
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: As far as the hitting is concerned, Tampa Bay is eighth,
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: so their offense has been pretty good. Anaheim has been
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: hitting again recently. They're back up to sixteenth, but Tampa
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: Bay has been the better hitting team, and this looks
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: like a big starting pitching mismatch in favor of Tampa
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: To me, here, Angels are going with Jack Kohanowitz.
• 22:35
  Speaker 5: He has not been that good.
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: He's been a little bit better, Like his career has
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: been bad, and this year he's had a run where
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: he was a little bit better than that, but he
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: is starting to pitch poor league and now he's got
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: a four point nine to nine ERA one point three
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: to nine whip not great. He's bad on the road
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: six point two five road ERA. That's bad again. Like
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: I said, he was pitching well for a little bit
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: April and then into May here, but he started pitching
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: really poorly his last really, three of his last four
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: starts have been pretty bad. His walk rate is definitely
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: too high, not a huge strike up pitcher. He's also
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: been too hit abom over the course of the season.
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: His hit rate is actually not that high, but his
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: walk rate is unbelievably high. He's walking more than one
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: guy every two winnings. And his strikeout rate is also low,
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: which you know that's not his game. He gets guys
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: to induce, he induces a lot of ground balls, he
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: gets guys to hinto a lot of grounders. But still
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: you can't walk that many guys. And really that's been
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: his main issue, really has been the walks against Tampa.
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: Though I mean it is possible he does a little
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: bit better Tampa only as two witters have ever faced,
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: and Muwens and Williamson, and they're one for nine. The
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: only hit is of Williamson single, and they have four
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: strikeouts and no walks against him. So he's unfamiliar to Tampa,
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: and the guys that have faced him didn't do well again,
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: but Tampa's going with Shane McClanahan and he's come back
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: nicely from missing i think an entire season with an injury.
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: He's looking like he's pretty much almost back to where
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: he was before. He's got a two point five two
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: ERAM one point oh four whip good at home two
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: point one home e RAM. Pitching well this month as well,
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: almost one strike up er inning, low walk rate, very
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: low hit rate. He's allowed well. Actually, if you go
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: back to his last start in April, he's had five shutout.
• 24:33
  Speaker 5: Performances in his last six outings.
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: And the only one that wasn't was the start against Baltimore,
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: which wasn't home though, but still he's been really good.
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: Although he hasn't gone that deep into those outings. He's
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: usually going about five innings or a little bit into
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: the six, but still he's good. He's got a really
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: low hit rate on the season. His walk rate is
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: like a little bit high, but he's overcoming that with
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: how well he's pitched otherwise, and his strikeout rate is
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: right at nine per nine, good numbers against Anaheim as well,
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: the only five of their hitters have ever faced and
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: seventeen at bats, no extra base hits, nine strikeouts, two walks,
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: one seventy six.
• 25:11
  Speaker 5: Average four to forty ops.
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: I would obviously trust him a lot more than Kohana
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: Witz here. But if you want Tampa as the site
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: doesn't automatically refresh, I am so fucking sick of this shit.
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: Can't get a good odds screen anymore. Fuck you pregame
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: thanks a lot. Tampa Bay is getting the money even
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: though you're having to pay about minus one ninety even
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: up to minus two hundred for them here. Obviously, if
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: you're gonna play Tampa, I mean you, it's you basically
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: have to play the run line with them if you're
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: gonna play them, kind of. But I don't know, man,
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: I mean, I guess you could go with Anaheim under
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: their team total. That could be maybe a sneak you.
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: I don't even want to do that. Maybe if you
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: can get a book that as a first five team
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: total under maybe that's what I would do, because I
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: don't trust this Tampa Bay bullpen man, but I trust
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: them over Anaheims though. That's why I was saying, I
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: think the Tampa Bay side kind of makes the most
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: sense here. Seventy five tickets, eighty nine percent of the
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: cash on Tampa. If you're gonna go with them, you
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: gotta lay a run line, though basically some I don't
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: know if you want to do that with a home
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: team where maybe they won't score enough the totals at eight,
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: which isn't really that high. I don't want to do it,
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: but I think that would, I guess, be the way
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: that I think I would play it if you forced
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: me to play that game. But you might not get
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: the at bats in the ninth inning from Tampa Bay
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: if you need them to pad any sort of lead
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: there to get that thing done. So it is kind
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: of dangerous. Garrett, what's up. I haven't been paying attention
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: to college baseball at all. I know there were a
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: couple of upsets, and then both the teams. Like I said,
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: both the teams that got upset, they won their next game,
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: although only one of the two covered the run line.
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: Though I don't do college baseball though, yeah, don't don't
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: remind me, dirty sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out,
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: all right, Garrett not mentioning, Uh the Hurricanes is kind
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: of interesting.
• 27:12
  Speaker 5: All right, what do we have here?
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: Oh yeah, all right, yeah, Atlanta at Cincinnati. Uh, Cincinnati's
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: on the verge of getting swept, I'm pretty sure.
• 27:22
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: So, like I talk about, when a team is on
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: the verge of a sweep, a lot of times you'll
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: get an extra effort out of them. However, I don't
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: think Atlanta's next opponent is anything special. I think it
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: might be the Blue Jays or something. Let me say, yeah,
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: it is so. I don't really think it's a look
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: ahead for Atlanta. But still they've already won the series,
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: so it is possible they overlook Cincinnati a little bit here.
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: Uh So, motivationally, I think Cincinnati, you know, they have
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: a little bit of a situational edge there because of that.
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: Cincinnati did use four relief pitchers yesterday and the though
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: and their bullpend is bad, Atlanta's is not bad. They
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: use four relief pitchers as well. Atlanta's ranked number one
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: in bullpen, their era is the only one in baseball
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: that's sub three, and their whip is also at the top,
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: so number one bullpen. Cincinnati's bullpen is bad. They are
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: twenty seventh bad stuff. Atlanta's third in offense right now,
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: and Cincinnati has been hitting a bit better again as
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: of late. They're fourteenth, so pretty capable offense. I gave
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: out the over in the first game of this series,
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: and Atlanta did most of the damage there. But that
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: game was that was a winner, A rare winner for me,
• 28:38
  Speaker 3: you know, the way things have been going recently. But
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: it's a hit or friendly ballpark. It makes sense to
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: have runs scored here. I don't know if that's gonna
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: be the case in this game though. Spencer Strider is
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: pitching for Atlanta. He's pitching pretty well, except his walk
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: number is definitely a concern.
• 28:55
  Speaker 5: Though he's got a three point four to six ERA
• 28:57
  Speaker 5: one point one.
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: Five whip that's all good. He's a little bit more hittable,
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: I guess if you want to call it that on
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: the road three point nine to two Rodio raging, but
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: look at his walk number. Dude. I know he's coming
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: back from injury. He's pitched pretty well for the most part.
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: He's been very hard to hit. I get that, but
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: he's a lot well. He's allowed six home runs though,
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: so even though he's only allowed fifteen hits in twenty
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: six innings, which is good, six home runs is bad.
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: He's even more alarm hellowed five of them in the
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: last two games, both of them on the road. By
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: the way, he's got a good strikeout rate thirty two,
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: which is what you expect out of him. Fifteen walks
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: is a huge issue, though, multiple walks in every outing.
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man, For me, you can't keep doing that.
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: Even though he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: every outing. Atlanta's won all five of his starts so far,
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: so I'm not gonna say you should definitely fade him,
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: but there are some issues here with the way he's pitching.
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: He's way too wild. He's got to fix that. Numbers
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: against Cincinnati are pretty bad, by the way. At bats
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: five of their hitters have faced him seven strikeouts, one walk.
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: That's pretty good. He actually hasn't walked. He hasn't walked
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: to these guys, but he's a lot of three eighty
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: nine batting average to them nine to twenty one ops.
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: So I don't know, man, I don't know if Strider
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: is really the guy you want to back in this
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: particular game.
• 30:17
  Speaker 5: Here, Cincinnati's going with Nick Lodolo.
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: And I know his numbers don't look good here, five
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: point five to seventy RA, one point three to eight WHIP,
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: but he's coming back from injury as well. He had
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: a delayed start to this season. And if you look
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: at what he did, you know, last year and whatever,
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: he was a decent pitcher for Cincinnati, like better than
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: these numbers. And he looks like he's moving in the
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: right direction his last couple of starts, except for five
• 30:42
  Speaker 3: walks two starts to go, he looks like he's kind
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: of moving in the right direction. He just had a
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: good start last time out, but it was against the Mets.
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: I know it was on the road, the Mets blow.
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: I know their offense has been awful, but still I
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: think it's a good sign that he's kind of moving
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: in the right direction. Here, he's eighteen strike outs and
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: twenty one innings overall, twenty hits allowed. None of that
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: is bad, but the walk number is bad. Nine walks,
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: but he didn't walk anybody in that last outing against
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: the Mets. And he's allowed five home runs, which is
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: a bit concerning. As well, so there might be some
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: home runs in this game. Lodolo has struggled at home
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: so far eight point six eight ERA here in this
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: hitter friendly stadium. That one start against the Mets was
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: on the road. Like I said, he's been good against
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: the Braves in the past, though, in twenty four at
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: bats two aweight batting average allowed, six ZHO, three ops
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: ten to two strike out walk ratiom. You know, Braves
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: have the public all over them, eighty eight percent of tickets,
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: eighty four percent of the cash on them.
• 31:42
  Speaker 5: They're around minus one thirty something here.
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: It looks pretty easy to play the Braves here because
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: they got like the best record in baseball, they've already
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: won the series. Everybody knows they're the better team. But
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: you know, I think if I was gonna play this game,
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: I think I probably would take a shot with the
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: Reds in the first five innings here. I don't want
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: their bullpen. Obviously their bullpen is absolute ass. But I
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: think first five inning Cincinnati actually is sneaky and makes
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: some sense here based on the matchup numbers. I just
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: showed you you'll get them as an underdog.
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: If you do that.
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: Maybe I don't know if you'll get them as a
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: bigger underdog in the first five, but I think that
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: might be. What I would do is just take a
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: shot on the Cincinnati money line in the first five there,
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: but I don't want to play it. I think there
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: were some arguments for an over in that game as well,
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: even though I know it's the series has just looked
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: like an over series and maybe it sounds too easy
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: to do that. But with you know, Cincinnati's bullpend here,
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: I think Strider might actually be a little bit hittable here.
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: Lodolum has been bad at home this year. Some arguments
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: can be made for an over there more than for
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: an under. I would say totals at eight and a
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: half there, but I still think Cincinnati first five would
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: be my preference in that game, but I don't want
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: anything to do with it. Boston at Cleveland Red Sox
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: won a game yesterday. Hey, it was nine to one,
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: and it was supposed to be a low scoring game
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: and it was. The game was like one to one
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: in the sixth inning. The Red Sox just unloaded against
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: Cleveland's bullpen really late in the game, so I was
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: somewhat correct. So that game would have been a winner
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: for me. So the other games that I left off
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: my card were first five under in Washington San Diego.
• 33:25
  Speaker 5: That was not a winner. Uh, that one would have
• 33:27
  Speaker 5: been a three.
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: And a half, and I think it landed four even
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: though you could see the bullpens got lit up in
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: that game. But yeah, I think that one slightly went
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: over Boston. Cleveland would have gone under first five, which
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: was my other recommendation. I think full game wound up
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: going over just because the Red Sox had like one
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: huge inning late in the game. But good for the
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: Red Sox that they're you know, maybe their bats are
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: starting to turn it around a little bit here. Red
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: Sox have a bullpen edge in my opinion here or
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: maybe even objectively, these three relief pitchers yesterday Cleveland US four.
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: They've had a bit more usage recently and they got
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: kind of lit up. And the Red Sox bullpen has
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: been solid. There's sixth in bullpen era Cleveland or six
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: and bullpen whip, I mean, but their era is also
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: really good. Cleveland is a fourteenth. They're not a bad bullpen,
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: but Red Sox have a bullpen heads here. Offensively, neither
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: team has done that well and the Red Sox have
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: actually jumped ahead of Cleveland in that department. The Red
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: Sox are twenty first, Cleveland twenty third. So Red Sox
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: have been better at the plate recently as well. Red
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: Sox are going with Ron your Suarez in this game.
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: He's been decent for them. Three point oh two ERA,
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: one point oh wait whip. Those numbers look good, although
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: if you, you know, you kind of look at his
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: other metrics, they're not quite that good. But he's been
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: pretty good. He's been good on the road one point
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: nine to nine road. ERA. Gave up five runs last time,
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: but it was against Atlanta, so maybe you give him
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: a pass for the More concerning is that he walked
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: three guys each in his last couple outings. But still,
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: I mean, if you look at his overall numbers, strike
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: out rates not really that high, but he's been hard
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: to hit. He's alloted pretty few hits here. His walk
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: rate is a little bit higher than you'd like to see,
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: but not that bad.
• 35:17
  Speaker 5: So yeah, overall he's been decent.
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: He's not really going that deep into most of these outings,
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: but he is trying to come back from an injury,
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: so it looks like they've ramped up his pitch count
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: a little bit in each start since then.
• 35:28
  Speaker 5: He got injured.
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: I believe in this Houston game he had like a
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: hamstring thing and got taken out of the game. And
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: since then he's been He's had two good starts and
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: one bad start since then, but they've been upping his
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: pitch count each time. And against Cleveland, he's been decent
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: in thirty at bats, two sixty seven average isn't really
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: that great, but they haven't really hit him for any power.
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: It's been mostly just contact hitting six thirteen obs, eight strikeouts,
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: two walks. Only extra base hit is a Fry double.
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I think Suarez could be well. Here. He's
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: going up against Tanner Biby for Cleveland, who I think
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: is the harder throwing pitcher, and he's he's own seven,
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: but he's gotten a bit unlucky, which you know, the
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: way that these things even out is crazy because like
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: by being basically had the same numbers last year as
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: far as like era whip like, he was kind of mediocre,
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: but last year he was getting a ton of wins
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: because Cleveland was scoring a ton of runs every time
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: he pitched. This year, they're scoring nothing when he pitches,
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: so it's crazy. He's got a four point five seven
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: e RRA one point three to two whip not great.
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: He's been good at home though, three point six to
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: two home e RA does pitch better at home. He
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: got lit up in his last game against Washington. Five
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: home runs allowed in three innings. That is pretty insane.
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: But he's been pretty solid this month otherwise, so you
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: have to kind of figure out is he falling out
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: a form here or was that kind of an outlier
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: because the rest of this month, or at least.
• 36:55
  Speaker 5: The prior three starts were all solid.
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: So against Minnesota and Detroit though not really that impressive,
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: or Cincinnati even it's not like that impressive, but Red
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: Sox are not that intimidating of a lineup either. Overall,
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: Biby's got almost one hit per inning. That's kind of fine.
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: His walk rate is mediocre. His strikeout rate is lower
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: than you would think though, because I thought he was
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: more of a strike up pitcher than that. So I
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: don't know what the deal is with that. Looks like
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: he's lost a little bit on his stuff. I don't
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: really get it. And he's definitely allowed too many home
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: runs too. He's in a double digit home run total already.
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: His numbers against the Red Sox are good though in
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: twenty one at bats, not a huge sample, but they
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: only have two extra base hits. Duran and Wong each
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: have a double. Wong did some damage yesterday, Dude, I
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: don't know. He seems to be the guy that has
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: some of the better For whatever reason, Wong specifically kills Cleveland.
• 37:51
  Speaker 5: I don't understand why that is.
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: He hits really well against Cleveland and he sucks ass
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: against everybody else. But I would say put him in
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: the lineup every time I'm playing Cleveland. But Biby has
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: held the Red Sox to a one ninety average overall,
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: four seventy six ops, four strikeouts, no walks. This looks
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: like an under type of game to me. I don't
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: really know if I would want the bullpens though, because
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: Cleveland's is kind of unrested here. The money is agreeing
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: with the under. The totals already dropped right to the seven,
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: and it looks like it's teetering on maybe even being
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: a six and a half, which is crazy. Although I
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: know Cleveland is known for kind of playing these low
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: scoring games. At home, eighty two percent of tickets, eighty
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: four percent of the cash on the under I think
• 38:35
  Speaker 3: if I was gonna do it, i'd probably go first
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: five under hope, you know, for the pitchers to both
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: do well for that stretch of the game. That's probably
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: what I would do. The Red Sox are getting the money,
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: it looks like fifty five percent tickets on Cleveland, fifty
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: percent of the cash on the Red Sox. I don't
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: really have an opinion on the side. You know, if
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox are in the game and it's a
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: close game, I guess I might slightly lean that way,
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: just because the Red Sox have a bultpen edge and
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: I believe yesterday they ended a losing streak of some kind, right,
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: so maybe the Red Sox do have a little bit
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: of momentum here. The line is right, like just straight
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: up at a pick them there. But that's interesting because
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: of course Cleveland has the better record than the Red Sox,
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: right Like, the Red Sox are in last place in
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: the AL East, Cleveland's in first place in the AL Central.
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: But of course the AL East is a way more
• 39:24
  Speaker 3: difficult division than the AL Central, so that's something. But
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: I think basically those records are a little bit misleading.
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: Like I think these teams are closer in how good
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: they are than those records would indicate. So the public
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: might want to play Cleveland because they have the better
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: record and looks really easy just taking them as a
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: pick them that maybe you know a reason and maybe
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: look towards the Red Sox. The odds makers kind of
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: telling you that these teams are basically evenly matched here,
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: or because the Red Sox are, you know, or because
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: Cleveland isn't even getting a full home advantage here, odds
• 39:57
  Speaker 3: makers are kind of telling you the Red Sox are
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: actually the slightly better team and or have the slightly
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: better starter on the mound. All right on Miami at
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: the Mets. The Mets, I believe are on the verge
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: of a sweep here. Yeah, so the Mets have won
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: each of the last two games. Have when each game
• 40:15
  Speaker 3: in the series, I should say Mets are looking for revenge. Man,
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: I actually don't know if they're gonna overlook Miami, now
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: I know. I usually say you want to look towards
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: the team it's trying to avoid the sweep, and yeah,
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: Miami should get up for this game. But Miami swept
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: the Mets like a week ago or whatever, you know,
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: so the I think the Mets are kind of looking
• 40:33
  Speaker 3: to do that back to Miami. Miami swept them in Miami,
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: and I think it was actually somewhat historic. I think
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: Miami hadn't swept the Mets since like the nineties or
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: I don't know, it was something ridiculous like that. So
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: that was a big deal for Miami. Miami still wants
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: this game, though, so you know, I don't know, like
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: I think both teams are going to be motivated. That's
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: what I will say. The Mets pretty clearly have the
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: better starting pitcher here though. Bullpen wise, bullpens are decent.
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: Mets used a lot of them yesterday, a lot of
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: their bullpen arms. They used four, Miami only used two.
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: So Miami has the rested bullpen and they are actually
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: the better bullpen too. Miami's fourth, the Mets are ninth.
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: We're looking at two good bullpens though, but Miami has
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: a slight edge there. Miami has the offensive edge as well.
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: They're eighteenth. The Mets are still last thirtieth, but starting
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: pitching does give an edge to the Mets, which is
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: why they're favored like this. Jansen Junk is pitching for
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: Miami here, he started to pitch a little bit worse recently.
• 41:37
  Speaker 3: He's got a four point eight ERA now one point
• 41:39
  Speaker 3: three WHIP after he was pitching well for most of
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: the season. He's been slightly worse on the road, but
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: not really huge home road splits. Here. He did pitch
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: well in his most recent outing against Toronto, So maybe
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: Junk is coming back into form, because he had two
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: bad outings in the prior to games against Atlanta and
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay. But of course and against Washington, he wasn't
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: that great the game before that either. But what I
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: will say is that, of course those three offenses are
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: better than the Mets offense, so he might be able
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: to pitch well here. He did not pitch in that
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: previous series against the Mets, but he looks like he's
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: kind of coming back into form here. At least. He
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: still has a twenty two to five strikeout walk ratier
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: this month, so that's good, although the strike out rates
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: low in twenty seven innings, but he's not really walking guys.
• 42:27
  Speaker 3: But he's allowed thirty eight hits and six home runs.
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: He's been way too hittable this month. His overall numbers,
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: he's been two hittable on the season, more than one
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: hit per inning. Walk rate is actually low and strike
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: out rate is also low.
• 42:42
  Speaker 5: What is he gonna do in this game? Though, I
• 42:44
  Speaker 5: honestly I have no idea.
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: The Mets have five guys who have faced him before
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: ten at bats. They do have a four hundred batting
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: average against him eight fifty five ops, three strikeouts, one walk.
• 42:54
  Speaker 5: So they've been able to hit him.
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: They don't have any extra base hits off of him, though,
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man, I mean I don't really I
• 43:02
  Speaker 3: don't really want to trust junk here. I mean, he
• 43:04
  Speaker 3: has been pitching a bit worse. I know he's still
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: been decent against bad lineups like this, but this is
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: a lineup that looks capable at least of getting to him,
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: and he's gonna have to go up against Nolan McLain,
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: who he's been pitching worse recently too. But I think
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: he's good. I think he's gonna come back into form here.
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: He's got a four point four e RA, which I
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: know doesn't look that good, but his whip is still
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: good one point ZHO nine, so his era should be
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: lower than that. He's been a little bit worse at home. Yeah,
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: four point eight six Homie Ray, so that's not great.
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: A lot of it is that his last start he
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: got blasted by Cincinnati at home, and he wasn't really
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: good in his previous outing either at Washington. But in
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: that outing, it looks like the fielding kind of screwed
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: up behind him and kept him in the game longer
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: than he should have been in there. So I don't
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: think he's that bad, dude. His strikeout walk Razier continues
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: to be good thirty to nine this month. Good strikeout
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: rate in twenty six innings twenty eight hits is not
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: that great though, neither is six home runs. But overall,
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: I like McClain, I think he's good. He's got way
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: over one strike up per inning on the season, way
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: below one hit allowed per inning. His walk rate is
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: not that bad either, So I like McClain, I think
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: at some point, yeah, he's going to be back and form.
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: Maybe it's here because Miami's not that great of a
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: lineup and they've never faced mclaan before, so that should
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: be an extra edge to him. You know, again, these
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: bats where they haven't seen a picture like this before
• 44:28
  Speaker 3: he was a young talented picture. That's usually an advantage
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: to the picture. The money looks to be strongly indicating
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: on the Mets here, and it looks like you might
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: even be able to find a money line that's below
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: minus one fifty here, minus one forty eight at some books. Here,
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: I guess fifty two percent of tickets eighty eight percent
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: of the casual on the Mets. I probably would lean
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: to the Mets here man maybe I don't know. I
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: guess he could argue first five as well, because their
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: bullpend is a little bit worse and a little bit
• 44:59
  Speaker 3: less ret here as well. First five. You actually you
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: could probably get the price down that way. You could go.
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: You might have to pay a little bit more technically,
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: but you could do a run line in the first
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: five on the Mets minus a half run. So maybe
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: you could do that, you know, all right, Detroit at
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: Chicago White Sox here, And by the way, the total
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: in that game is seven seven and a half, so
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: the oddsmakers are expecting it to be a low scoring
• 45:31
  Speaker 3: game there, all right, Detroit at the White Sox, And
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: I don't necessarily disagree with that, Like I could see
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: the arguments for the under in that game more so
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: than an over, but seven and a half not that
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: much where there are some question marks there. So and
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: the money again, it looks like the biggest money indicator,
• 45:49
  Speaker 3: although we can't really see what's going on with the total.
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: The indicator seems to be on the Mets there. White
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: Sox are on the verge of sweeping the Tigers, who
• 45:58
  Speaker 3: have just been awful since the Schooll injury. Yeah, I
• 46:03
  Speaker 3: don't know what to say about the Tigers, dude, Bad
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: bad things going on there. Like they'll have spots where
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: you think it should set up well for them to
• 46:12
  Speaker 3: be in a bounce back and it just doesn't happen.
• 46:15
  Speaker 3: So things are going poorly for them. Will the White
• 46:18
  Speaker 3: Sox overlook them? I don't know, dud, because the White
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: Sox are usually not better than Detroit, you know what
• 46:23
  Speaker 3: I mean. So the White Sox might actually still show
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: up motivating here because Detroit has been one of the
• 46:28
  Speaker 3: best teams in this division every year recently. So the
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: White Sox may still get up for a game like this.
• 46:35
  Speaker 3: The White Sox they're playing Minnesota next. I don't know
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: that that's a huge look ahead spot or anything, even
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: though I know it's another divisional matchup. As far as
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: the bullpends are concerned, the White Sox use three relief
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: pitchers yesterday and Detroit used one. Detroit I think does
• 46:53
  Speaker 3: have the better bullpend and they're a little bit more rested,
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: but that may not be enough. Actually they've fallen behind
• 46:59
  Speaker 3: the White Sox, although their ERA is still better. Actually
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: their whip is the same, so yeah, Detroit is the
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: better bullpen even though they ranked twenty third based on whip.
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: White Sox twenty first. But again there's no secondary sort
• 47:12
  Speaker 3: order here with era, so White Sox have the lesser
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: bullpen here still, but neither bullpen is really anything that
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: you really want to bank on. Detroit's offense has been
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: awful recently. They've fallen all the way to twenty seventh,
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: very very bad. The White Sox are six, so yeah,
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: the White Sox do have a big hitting edge here.
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: Detroit's going with Cater Montero here. He's actually been fairly good.
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: Four point nine ERA and one point seven whip. He
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: was the guy that was out of their bullpen for
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: a while long relief and of course because of their
• 47:44
  Speaker 3: injuries whatever, they've just put him in the starting rotation,
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: and he hasn't been bad. He's been a little bit
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: worse on the road though, four point six roadyra this month.
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: He's struggled a little bit, mostly with the walks, and
• 47:58
  Speaker 3: his strikeout rate's been too low. Sixteen strike outs, ten walks,
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: five home runs isn't that great either, and twenty two
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: hits allowed is good though in twenty eight at bats.
• 48:08
  Speaker 3: But Detroit's lost his last four starts, although of course
• 48:11
  Speaker 3: some of that is because they can't hit, but in
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: a couple of those games he didn't pitch that well.
• 48:16
  Speaker 3: Some of it was the bullpen not doing well. It's
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: just a combination of things. But his walk rate recently
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: is a little bit worrisome, but on the course of
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: the season it's not that bad. He's allowed pretty He's
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: allowed really few hits, pretty few walks really as well.
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: Not a lot of home runs, but more this month
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: than the previous month by quite a bit. And his
• 48:39
  Speaker 3: strike out rate is low, so that's a little bit concerning.
• 48:41
  Speaker 3: His strike out rate has dropped this month, so it
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: looks like he is starting to pitch worse than he
• 48:46
  Speaker 3: was earlier in the season. So he's kind of moving
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: in the wrong direction, which isn't good. The White Socks
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: only have five hitters who have faced him seven at bats,
• 48:54
  Speaker 3: but they've hit on four to twenty nine average, fourteen
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: thirteen ops, no strikeouts, two walks. Montgomery has a home
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: run off him. I wouldn't put that much weight into
• 49:05
  Speaker 3: that him. It's a small sample size. But Montero, you know,
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: he may just not be as good as he looked
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: like he was in April. I don't really want to
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: trust him right now. Sean Burke is pitching for the
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: White Sox. He's probably the more trustworthy of the two
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: pitchers here. He's been pretty solid three point ninety RA,
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: one point one five whip. Burke has been a little
• 49:26
  Speaker 3: bit worse at home though, four point three to five
• 49:29
  Speaker 3: home ye Ray and he's pitched pretty well his last
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: couple of starts though, or actually his last starting against
• 49:34
  Speaker 3: Minnesota seven innings touring runs. He wasn't that good in
• 49:38
  Speaker 3: his previous few out He's he actually failed to make
• 49:40
  Speaker 3: it five innings in the previous three, so that's not great.
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: But if you look at his numbers on the month,
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: thirty strikeouts, nine walks in twenty six and a third innings,
• 49:49
  Speaker 3: twenty five hits a lot. None of those numbers are bad,
• 49:51
  Speaker 3: so I think maybe he's gotten a little bit unlucky here.
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: I think he is actually still pitching all right. His
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: season has been pretty good for the most part. Few
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: were in the one hit per inning, pretty low, walk rate,
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: strike got rate a little bit low. But whatever numbers
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: against Detroit not that good though. In twenty three at
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: bats three h four average, eight thirty eight ops five
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: to two strike out walk ratio. He has not faced
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: them this year though. Burke's still a young guy, dude,
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: and he's pitching better this year than he has in
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: the past, So you might not want to weigh his
• 50:23
  Speaker 3: numbers against Detroit that heavily because he is pitching better
• 50:27
  Speaker 3: now than he was when those numbers were accumulated. You know,
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: I mean, I think the White Sox have the matchup
• 50:35
  Speaker 3: edge here, man. I know they don't really have the
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: better bullpend. Maybe it's the first five. Maybe it makes
• 50:40
  Speaker 3: more sense the money is fading them though, But I
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: don't want Detroit here. I just don't. Ninety two percent
• 50:46
  Speaker 3: of tickets, ninety one percent of the cash on the
• 50:48
  Speaker 3: White Sox. I know Detroit's trying to avoid the sweet.
• 50:50
  Speaker 3: But I still think the game means something to the
• 50:52
  Speaker 3: White Sox here because again they've been so bad for
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: so long. But yeah, the public is on the White Sox.
• 50:59
  Speaker 3: The pub bo likes the White Sox now because of
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: their offense and because they're you know, the the trendy
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: new thing, you know what I mean, the shiny new toy.
• 51:09
  Speaker 3: But I might lean towards them, maybe first five only
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: because I don't like their bullpen. But it does look
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: too cheap to play the White Sox in like the
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: minus one twenty something range here, with the public heavily
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: on them and less than the money on them, So
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: I don't like the market read looking like that, so
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: I'm staying away from it. But totals also fairly low
• 51:28
  Speaker 3: at eight seven and a half or eight if you
• 51:32
  Speaker 3: go under here, I would go first five innings only
• 51:34
  Speaker 3: on that I could see the argument for it. Like
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: both these pictures have had more good than bad, I
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: guess this season, but I would not really want to
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: bank on that obviously, I don't want to play the
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: game at all all right, Milwaukee at Houston. Houston had
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: a bad spot when they were returning on from the
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: road in the first.
• 51:54
  Speaker 5: Game of the series. They still almost won the game.
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee won in extra innings in that game, and then
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: Houston bounced back yesterday with a nine to two win.
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: Houston's playing better baseball recently, man, their bullpen is still
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: not something I would trust, though, even though their bullpen
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: has improved recently, I still don't think it's good. They
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: used two relief pitchers yesterday and Milwaukee also used too,
• 52:17
  Speaker 3: but basically Rodriguez in long relief for most of it.
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee is eleventh in bullpen right now. Their era is
• 52:26
  Speaker 3: quite good. They definitely have the better bullpen. Houston is
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: twenty sixth now because they're a whip is actually a
• 52:32
  Speaker 3: bit better, but they still are tied for the worst
• 52:34
  Speaker 3: bullpen ERA, so there's.
• 52:36
  Speaker 5: Still a bad bullpen.
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: Houston has been a good offense though they're fifth, and
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: the Brewers have dropped back down to twenty second, even
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: though I thought their offense was improving a bit. But
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: you look at this starting pitching matchup, it looks like
• 52:50
  Speaker 3: a huge mismatch in favor of Milwaukee. Here they got
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: Jacob Mazerowski.
• 52:54
  Speaker 5: On the mount.
• 52:55
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's been excellent one point eight three ERA
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: point eighth whip. He's already had one hundred strikeouts, which
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: is the most in Major League Baseball and the highest
• 53:05
  Speaker 3: strikeout rate. Also, I think he's been even a little
• 53:08
  Speaker 3: bit better on the road, one point six to six roadie,
• 53:11
  Speaker 3: I ray. He said, double digit strikeouts in three of
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: his last four appearances. Milwaukee's won four of his five
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: starts in this month. He got he dude, he allowed
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: to run last time out against Saint Louis. What are
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: you doing?
• 53:25
  Speaker 5: Man? He hadn't He had.
• 53:26
  Speaker 3: Not allowed to run in the previous four starts this month,
• 53:30
  Speaker 3: and then he finally allowed to run. Oh, man, he's
• 53:33
  Speaker 3: so bad. He allowed one run against Saint Louis. What
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: the hell? Man? Yeah, but his numbers have been just ridiculous.
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: He's only a lot of eleven hits and thirty one
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: to the third innings this month and one run. Like
• 53:45
  Speaker 3: I said, forty nine strikeouts and six walks. He's not
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: even walking guys, even though his you know, I know,
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: he was a rookie like last year. He came into
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: the league last year, I should say, and he had
• 53:55
  Speaker 3: some issues with wildness. He's figured it out, man. His
• 53:59
  Speaker 3: numbers are elite across the board. His strike gout rate
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: is insane. Like, dude, I don't know how he keeps
• 54:06
  Speaker 3: throwing this hard. He'll be like in the sixth inning,
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: he's still throwing one hundred and three miles an hour.
• 54:11
  Speaker 5: I think his arm is gonna just die, Like, I don't.
• 54:15
  Speaker 3: Know how you could do this. He's allowed basically one
• 54:18
  Speaker 3: hit every two winnings, which is ridiculous. His walk rate
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: is pretty low as well, and his strike gout rate
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: is the highest in baseball. I mean, one hundred strike
• 54:27
  Speaker 3: outs at sixty four innings is complete insanity. I don't
• 54:31
  Speaker 3: know what else to say. And Houston has basically never
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: seen him before except the former Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez,
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: who is over too often with no strikeouts and no walks.
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: But yeah, obviously, I think miz is going to have
• 54:46
  Speaker 3: a good start here. Most likely he'll be going up
• 54:50
  Speaker 3: against tatsu Ya Emi, who is not having a good
• 54:54
  Speaker 3: year six point one seventy RA, one point five whip.
• 54:57
  Speaker 3: This is his first season in the majors coming over
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: from Japan. Like I said, listening to former MLB scout
• 55:06
  Speaker 3: and current baseball expert handicap Or Tokyo Brandon, who lives
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: in Japan and knows the Japanese league too. He basically
• 55:14
  Speaker 3: said that Emi is excessively cocky and doesn't have the
• 55:17
  Speaker 3: stuff to back up his amount of cockiness, so he
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: doesn't like him. Now. Emi was having a really bad season,
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: then all of a sudden, last time out, he had
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: a no hitter through six innings against Texas. Did Texas
• 55:31
  Speaker 3: getting no hit on the whole game?
• 55:32
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: I kind of missed that they did. So Houston had
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: a combined no hitter in that game against Texas. Em
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: I pitched six innings of it, and they took him
• 55:44
  Speaker 3: out at just under one hundred pitches. But I would
• 55:47
  Speaker 3: worry about him after that, Dude, when he finally has
• 55:50
  Speaker 3: a good outing and it's so good that it's a
• 55:52
  Speaker 3: six inning no hitter, you know, against your geographic division
• 55:57
  Speaker 3: rival in Texas, I would worry about Emi after a
• 56:01
  Speaker 3: start like that. He almost threw a hundred pitches there too.
• 56:03
  Speaker 3: I would worry about him being in a letdown spot here.
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: And he was pretty atrocious for the entire season until
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: that point. And even in that game he had four
• 56:11
  Speaker 3: walks and only two strikeouts, so that's not exactly a
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: good sign.
• 56:15
  Speaker 5: So I don't think I would really trust him here.
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: His walk number is crazy high, almost one per inning,
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: fewer the one hit a lout per inning, though, and
• 56:23
  Speaker 3: his strikeout rate is right around one per inning, so
• 56:25
  Speaker 3: those numbers are good. So the walks are his issue.
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: The Brewers had never seen him before, so it is
• 56:31
  Speaker 3: true that he might have a little bit of an
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: edge there. And yes, I guess is trending in the
• 56:35
  Speaker 3: right direction with the fact that he had a much
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: better start last time out, but I think it could
• 56:41
  Speaker 3: be more of a letdown spot here. Man, I don't
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: trust him, even though he is unfamiliar to all the Brewers.
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: I think it's highly likely the Brewers do win this game.
• 56:50
  Speaker 3: But if you want to play the Brewers, you're having
• 56:51
  Speaker 3: to lay a massive price with them. Mizierowski is not
• 56:55
  Speaker 3: a secret man, not anymore. And it's at the point
• 56:58
  Speaker 3: now where he's a road favorite of minus two hundred
• 57:03
  Speaker 3: I mean yeah, and the money is actually backing Milwaukee
• 57:08
  Speaker 3: still fifty eight percent of tickets, eighty five percent of
• 57:10
  Speaker 3: the cash on them. I would.
• 57:14
  Speaker 5: I don't know what I would do in this game.
• 57:15
  Speaker 3: Man, Houston under their team total might make the most
• 57:19
  Speaker 3: sense here with Milwaukee having an elite pitcher on the
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: mound plus their bullpen, I think sets up pretty well here.
• 57:25
  Speaker 3: I think Houston under their team total makes some sense here,
• 57:29
  Speaker 3: although you're gonna need them to be held to like
• 57:31
  Speaker 3: I don't even know whatever that's gonna be. They might
• 57:34
  Speaker 3: have to score under three or something in this game,
• 57:37
  Speaker 3: so I know that's pretty dicey, but it could happen.
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: The total is really low at seven and a half.
• 57:45
  Speaker 3: I mean, I guess there are some arguments to be
• 57:47
  Speaker 3: made for a first five under there. I would not
• 57:49
  Speaker 3: want to include Houston's bullpen in that. I think Milwaukee
• 57:52
  Speaker 3: wins the game. I mean, if you want to, if
• 57:55
  Speaker 3: you want to run line it, I guess you could
• 57:57
  Speaker 3: on Milwaukee and you'll get all nine innings of it.
• 57:59
  Speaker 3: Bet at least with them to try to get over
• 58:02
  Speaker 3: that one and a half. But laying one and a
• 58:04
  Speaker 3: half with the road team with a low total like that,
• 58:06
  Speaker 3: that's just not something I would want to do, all right.
• 58:11
  Speaker 3: The next game up is gonna be my last play
• 58:13
  Speaker 3: of the day, which is in Kansas City and Texas.
• 58:17
  Speaker 3: This game. These games have been high scoring, which is
• 58:21
  Speaker 3: kind of crazy because Texas is notorious for playing very
• 58:24
  Speaker 3: low scoring home games. Both the games in this series
• 58:27
  Speaker 3: have gone over the total. We've had ten and thirteen runs.
• 58:31
  Speaker 3: Texas is on the verge of a sweep here. That's
• 58:34
  Speaker 3: kind of part of the reason why I'm looking towards
• 58:36
  Speaker 3: the Royals side here in some way. Now, it's not
• 58:39
  Speaker 3: gonna be a look ahead really for Texas. They're playing
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis next, but they are starting a road trips.
• 58:44
  Speaker 3: You know, a lot of times you will actually be
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: focused on the first game of the road trip.
• 58:48
  Speaker 5: Want to get it off on the right foot.
• 58:50
  Speaker 3: They might overlook Kansas City here now that you know
• 58:52
  Speaker 3: they've beaten Kansas City already in the series. Kansas City
• 58:55
  Speaker 3: is not playing good baseball. They might overlook them. But
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: Kansas City has their most deady starting pitcher on them
• 59:01
  Speaker 3: out here, and that's what I'm looking at in this game.
• 59:08
  Speaker 3: So my play here is gonna be the Royals money
• 59:11
  Speaker 3: line first five decent price out there at minus one
• 59:14
  Speaker 3: oh five. The odds makers are kind of telling you
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: with this price really not even giving Texas a full
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: home field advantage here. The oddsmakers are kind of telling
• 59:22
  Speaker 3: you they think Kansas City has a little bit of
• 59:24
  Speaker 3: an advantage here, and I think Kansas City probably is
• 59:28
  Speaker 3: not quite as bad as the record would indicate, even
• 59:30
  Speaker 3: though I think Texas is also better than the record
• 59:33
  Speaker 3: would indicated. Yeah, Texas is the way a better pitching team,
• 59:36
  Speaker 3: but not with this starting pitching matchup.
• 59:38
  Speaker 5: And I'm gonna take the bullpens.
• 59:40
  Speaker 3: Out because obviously Texas has the better bullpen. Texas did
• 59:43
  Speaker 3: you'se four elief pitchers yesterday? Kansas City also did? I know?
• 59:48
  Speaker 3: Texas has a massive bullpen edge, So I'm taking that
• 59:50
  Speaker 3: out here. I'm not gonna factor that in. Obviously Texas
• 59:54
  Speaker 3: is eighth in bullpen. Kansas City is dead last. They're
• 59:57
  Speaker 3: tied with Houston in dead last in era, and their
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 3: whip is the worst. So congratulations to the Astros. Officially
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 3: right now they are no longer the worst bullpen. Texas
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 3: is twentieth. Then offense, Kansas City has been worse at
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 3: twenty six. But I'm not gonna put that much weight
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 3: into any of that. Again, I'm focusing basically on the
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: starting pitching matchup only here, and we're gonna back Michael
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 3: walk guy. I know I backed him in his I
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 3: think I backed him in his last game with an
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 3: under he's solid, dude. I mean, he's pretty clearly Kansas
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 3: City's best starter, even though he's old. He's not a
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 3: flashy pitcher, so a lot of times you get some
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 3: value on him because betters just don't want to bet
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 3: on him. Even those numbers are good on a two
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 3: point six ninety ray one point h two whip, but
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 3: he doesn't, you know, throw high heat and blow guys away.
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 5: So people just don't like him.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 3: But he's a solid pitcher. He's a little bit worse
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 3: on the road, but still a three RA and we're
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: getting a good pitcher friendly park here.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 5: I'm not too worried about that. He's pitched well this month.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 3: Twenty seven strikeouts, eight walks, thirty three inning, twenty two
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 3: hits allowed.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 5: Those numbers are all strong.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 3: He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in every outing,
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: including last time out against the Yankees, which I think
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: I gave out a first five under in that game
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 3: and I believe it was a win pitch well there.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 3: Other than that, though he's faced some weaker offenses, the
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 3: majority of the offenses he's faced this month of been
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 3: weaker Red Sox Detroit, Cleveland, and then he faced Saint
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 3: Louis and the Yankees. But still he continued pitching well
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 3: against the Yankees, so I think he can pitch well
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 3: against him. Ever, and of course Texas is not exactly
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: an elite offense. Walka has fewer than one strike up
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 3: per inning. Obviously that's not really what he does, but
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 3: his strike out rates not that low either. His walk
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: rate is tolerable, not too high really, and his hit
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 3: rate is really low. He's allowed twenty fewer hits than
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 3: innings pitch, so that's pretty solid. With seventy innings pitch basically,
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: numbers against Texas, you could probably guess they're pretty good
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 3: except for the ops. But I'm still gonna roll with this.
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 3: Seventy one at bats two twenty five average a lot
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 3: is really low. But yes, they've had some power hitting
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 3: against him. I know, seven sixty three ops. But if
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: you dive into these numbers a bit, it's all Jock Peterson,
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 3: who's seven for twenty six of them with two doubles
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 3: a triple.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 5: Two of them runs three walks.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: So if you take Peterson out, the rest of this
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 3: Texas lineup does almost no damage against uh Waka. So
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 3: that's why I actually am gonna I'm gonna tolerate this ops.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 3: Although it's not even really that high, it is above
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 3: the threshold I usually like to look at. But yeah,
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 3: looking at these numbers, I'm fine with this. Waka has
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 3: seventeen strikeouts nine walks overall against this lineup. I think
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 3: he can do well here, and we're gonna fade Jack
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 3: Lighter here. Even though Lighter has some talent, he's been
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 3: all right, but his walk numbers are a bit alarming.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 3: He's got a four point seven five YRRA one point
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 3: three to seven whip. Those numbers aren't great. He's better
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 3: at home, but still four point h five r RA
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 3: is still a run higher than Waka's Roady I Ray.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 3: So even though Lighter is better at home, still not
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 3: really that good. His last outing at home, he wasn't
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 3: great against Houston. Gave up four runs and six in
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 3: He's the out him to four hits, though, but he
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 3: had three walks. That's not very good. He's had multiple
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 3: walks in all but one outing this month. He's only
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 3: had fewer of the multiple walks a handful of times
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 3: this entire season. None of that is really that good. Really,
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 3: it's his walk rate that's the problem. The rest of
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 3: his numbers are good. He's got a high strikeout rate,
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 3: pretty low hit rate. The walk rate is definitely an
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 3: issue though, and it continues to be some and his
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 3: numbers against the Royals, believe it or not, are quite
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 3: bad in twenty four at bats. I know it's not
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 3: the biggest sample, but the Royals have really gotten to
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 3: him four to seventeen batting average, fifteen to seventeen ops,
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 3: four strikeouts, and five walks. So I'm gonna say we'll
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 3: do it. I know they haven't seen him this year
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 3: or whatever, but let's go with Kansas City in the
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 3: first five here. Only will take their out because they suck,
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 3: but I think Kansas City will show up with some
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 3: motivation here try to avoid the sweep. We'll go with
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 3: walka above lighter here. The money seems to agree with this.
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 3: Like I said, full game, Texas is not even getting
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 3: a full home field here. They're around minus one fifteen ors.
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 3: So you can see the difference here. By the way,
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 3: like you got you can tell these casinos that are
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 3: in Vegas, like Circa and the Super Book, they got
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 3: a lower price on Texas. And I can tell you
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 3: that more like professional betters are betting, like it's a
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: higher percentage of professional betters betting at those shops, you
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 3: know what I mean, the Vegas outlets there especially. I
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 3: think I think both of those books kind of cater
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 3: to the I don't know if I'm allowed to say
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 3: their names, and I think both those books kind of
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 3: cater to the professionals, whereas like DraftKings, FanDuel obviously more
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 3: of an influx of recreational money there, and the number
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 3: is higher on Texas there. So that's even an indicator
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: of something if the Sharper books are leaning more towards
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 3: Kansas City, so that does tell you that they're kind
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 3: of telling you Kansas like that kind of tells you
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 3: Kansas City is the way to look here. Also, fifty
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: five percent of tickets on Texas fifty four percent of
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 3: the cash on them, So the money seems to be
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 3: indicating in that direction as well. That is what will
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 3: go with the total is low, by the way, seven
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 3: and a half, it wouldn't surprise me if this is
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 3: a lower scoring game, obviously because it's in Texas more
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 3: often than not, it's going to be I mean, an under.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 3: If you want to go under, I guess you know,
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 3: first five innings you could try, but I don't know.
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: I have some issues with that, so I don't really
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 3: love that, to be honest. But again, obviously you know
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 3: what I like here. Kansas City. First five is the
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 3: play there, all right, And you've got my two players
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 3: for the day. Now we have five more baseball games,
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 3: this one WNBA game that I'm not interested in.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 5: I'm really being selective with a WNBA.
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 3: But it's worked out so far, so we should really
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 3: be undefeated. I'll be right back and then I'll talk
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 3: about the rest of these games and then finish with
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 3: an awful WNA. Be well, not at all for as
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 3: far as WNBA goes. It's actually a good game, but
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 3: it's still the WNBA. All right. I'll be right back,
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 3: all right. Next game is San Francisco at Colorado. Oh god,
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 3: Colorado's actually on the verge of a sweep San Francisco.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 3: Even though San Francisco started playing a little bit better recently,
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 3: things have not gone well. Plus, I guess Colorado's wearing
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 3: this the City Connect uniforms or whatever. Even though I
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 3: think they're hideous. That's some swag. They are, like that
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 3: a pimp furk ot or whatever they're they should all
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 3: wear those. Man, that's probably a coat they give to
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 3: like their MVP of the game or some crap like that.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 3: But whatever, Colorado's on the verge of a sweep here again. Yeah,
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 3: things not going well for the San francisc Go Giants.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 3: We know this.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 5: San Francisco's bullpen is decent though.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 3: These three relief pitchers yesterday and Colorado used two. Now,
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 3: of course, San Francisco probably does have a bit of
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 3: a motivational edge here. They want to get a game
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 3: in this series. You don't want to get swept by Colorado.
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 3: You know. Colorado doesn't really have a look ahead though.
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 3: They're playing Anaheim starting tomorrow. Not exactly a huge series there.
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 3: As far as the bullpen's, yeah, the Giants are better.
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 3: They're fifteenth. Their ERA is getting a little bit high though,
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 3: but they're an alright bullpen. Colorado is worse. They're at
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 3: twenty second and their ERA is also significantly worse. So, yes,
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 3: Texas or San Francisco does have a I'm used to
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 3: saying Texas because they have a good bullpen. San Francisco
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 3: has the better bullpen here. Colorado has the better offense
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 3: and they are hitting better in this series, of course
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 3: it is at courts Field. I guess they are starting
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 3: to do what they usually do and hit better at home.
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 3: They're at eighteenth offensively, San Francisco twenty five fifth not good,
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 3: so Colorado has the better offense. On the surface, it
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 3: looks like San Francisco has a big starting pitching advantage
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 3: here with Robbie Ray on the mound. But I'm gonna
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 3: counter that in one second. His numbers have gotten way worse.
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 3: Like he had a good season last year until he
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 3: got named to the All Star team and then he
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 3: completely fell off last year. This year he was pitching well,
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 3: and it looks like he's having an early falloff this
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 3: year because his numbers have gone way up.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 5: Four point six toy Ra one point three to eight
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 5: whip not great.
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 3: He's been really bad on the road six point eight
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 3: to four Roadyra, So that's probably not a good sign.
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 3: Now that he's having to pitch incoorse field and we
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 3: know he's not pitching well on the road. He's walked
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 3: multiple guys in all of his last four outings, including
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 3: seven walks in his last outing against the White Sox
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 3: after getting absolutely man handled by Arizona on the start
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 3: before that, and also pitching poorly against the Dodgers the
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 3: game before that. I know all three of those offenses
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 3: can do damage, but still he's falling off. These numbers
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 3: are bad eighteen to fifteen strike out walk ratio this
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 3: month and twenty eight hits allowed and eight home runs
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 3: allowed in twenty five to thirty And this has been
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 3: a very bad month for him, and I don't think
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 3: things are about to get better here, even though his
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 3: season wide numbers are pretty good, like, well overall, they're
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 3: not that bad. Let's say the walk number is really
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 3: the problem. He's allowed fewer than one hit per inning,
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 3: the walk rate is definitely too high, though strike got
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 3: rded a bit low, and he's allowed thirteen home runs,
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 3: which is also bad. So yeah, I don't want to
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 3: say that the numbers are actually that good. They're not really.
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 3: And also he's an extreme fly ball pitcher, and you
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 3: know that's not a good thing when you're in course field.
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 5: So I went back.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know how many times he's pitched
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 3: in coursefield, and I know he pitched there last year once,
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 3: which was let me find it. It was in September
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 3: and he wasn't great. He went four and two thirds innings,
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 3: gave up four and runs, seven hits, no home run though,
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 3: and eight strikeouts in one walk. So not everything was
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 3: bad in that outing, but he kind of struggled, and
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 3: generally he's bad against Colorado. Twenty nine at bats, three
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 3: seventy nine batting average allowed, eight eighty three ops, nine strikeouts,
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 3: one walk is good, but the rest of those numbers
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 3: really bad. So you got Ray who's falling off a cliff.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 3: He's in bad form, he's got bad matchup numbers. Fly
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 3: ball pitcher, I would not want anything to do with
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 3: him in this game. Tanner Gordon has pitching for Colorado.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 3: He's come back into the starting rotation after being in
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 3: the bulp, and you know, things not not going well
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 3: for Colorado pitching wise, because they never do. He's got
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 3: a five point eight five VRRA one point four to
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 3: eight whip. He's way worse at home, which is expected.
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 3: Nine point four or five yArray though, that is really bad.
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 3: He pitched pretty well on the road last time out
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 3: against the Dodgers, but last time he was at home,
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 3: Texas beat him up and they just kind of left
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 3: him in. That was actually a relief appearance and then
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 3: left him in for six and a third innings to
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 3: save their bullpen. You know, I don't really think Gordon
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 3: is particularly trustworthy, although some of his numbers are not
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 3: that bad. He's got more than one strike up er
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 3: inning a very low walk rate. His hit rate is
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 3: way too high though he's a lot a lot of hits,
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 3: and he's somewhat of a fly ball pitcher as well,
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 3: so that's also not good for a ballpark like this.
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 3: Although San Francisco has really not seen him much, only
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 3: Ariahs and Chapman have ever faced him before ten at
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 3: bats I think only have one extra race hit Chapman
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 3: with a double. They're a combined two for ten off
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 3: him with one strike on in one walk. So Gordon
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 3: has some unfamiliarity here. But I still think overall this
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 3: game looks like an over to me. I mean, I
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 3: just don't trust these pictures. The money's coming in on Colorado,
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 3: and I could see the argument for it, because Gordon
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 3: does have a little bit of unfamiliarity. Ray it definitely
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 3: looks fatable here, but I don't really want to do
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 3: that because San Francisco might have the extra motivation to
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 3: try to avoid the sweep. Fifty six percent of tickets
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 3: are on San Francisco, though sixty five percent of the
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 3: cash on Colorado. It's basically like a pick them pick
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 3: the winner price there the money is backing Sar Francisco,
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 3: or soon the money is back in Colorado. Excuse me
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 3: a little bit. I think Over makes more sense than
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 3: anything else in this game. Though the total is eleven. Again,
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 3: I know it's high. It landed exactly on eleven yesterday,
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 3: I think, But I think Over the total makes the
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 3: most sense there.
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 5: I think Ray could definitely get lit up here.
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 3: I don't trust Gordon either, especially his home numbers are
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 3: just bad. I don't think the unfamiliarity is gonna help
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 3: that much, and Colorado has a bad bullpen doing. Even
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 3: San Francisco's isn't.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 5: Really that good.
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 3: So I think there are more indicators towards an over
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 3: than anything else there.
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 5: Yankees at the A's.
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 3: The A's were able to get a win yesterday, so
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 3: these teams have split the first two games, and the
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 3: A's ended a four game losing streak.
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 5: So I don't know what this abs Gas was in
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 5: the game yesterday.
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 3: About whatever, I'm also who is that A's who's the
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 3: long haired.
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 5: Dude on the as.
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 3: I don't know. That's some crazy hair right there. I
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 3: gotta figure it out. I don't know the personnel well enough. Anyway.
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 3: The A's won yesterday six to four, so this will
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 3: be the rubber match of this series. I expect both
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 3: teams probably show up here. Both teams have go to offenses.
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 3: The A's used a lot of bullpen arms yesterday, the
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 3: Yankees used fewery A's used four, Yankees used two, really
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 3: just one. Doval barely pitched, so Yankees definitely have a
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 3: bullpen edch here. They're the better bullpen and they're more arrested.
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 5: Right now.
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 3: They're thirteenth and the A's are twenty fourth. Hitting wise,
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 3: the Yankees are number two and the A's are number ten,
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 3: so we have two go to offenses here.
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 5: Will Warren is pitching for the Yankees.
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 3: He's had a much better season than his counterpart here
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 3: in this game. Warren is actually pitching well three point
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 3: five to five yr one point once Evan Whip. He's
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 3: been even better on the road two point eighty six
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 3: Roady Ram Last year he was significantly worse on the road,
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 3: So I don't know, but it looks like he's figured
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 3: something out. Man. He's pitching well, although his strikeout rate
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 3: has gone down recently, but he's still pitching well overall.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 3: This month, he still has a high strikeout rate more
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 3: than one per inning. The walk rates not bad, the
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 3: hit rate's good. He's still pitching well. The Anchors have
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 3: won almost all of his starts, all but two of
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 3: them this season. He's got a high strikeout rate more
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 3: than one per inning, fewer than one hit a lout
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 3: per inning. His walk rates not that bad across the board,
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 3: good numbers out of Warren Dude, and against the as
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 3: he's good as well. Two twenty five batting average, six
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 3: fifteen oh ps in forty at bats. The only bad
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 3: number is the walks. Seven walks and twelve strikeouts. Only
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 3: two extra base hits doubles from him and our favorite guy,
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 3: Nick Kurtz. As long as he's not the guy with
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 3: the long hair, is he? No, dude, I don't know
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 3: who the guy is with the long hair. I apologize.
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 3: I'll try to figure it out because I want to know.
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 3: I don't do I don't know what anybody looks like.
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 3: All white people look the same to me man anyway,
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 3: the other concern is, obviously, because this is the A's stadium,
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 3: you have to treat it like course field. It's a
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 3: very home run conducive stadium, very hitter friendly. Will Warren
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 3: is more of a fly ball leaning pitcher, so that's concerning.
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 3: So then what I did was, I'm like, well, did
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 3: he pitch at the a Stadium last year, which was
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 3: the only year they were in the stadium, And in fact,
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 3: he did once in May, and he actually pitched really well.
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 3: He went seven to third inning's allowed one in run,
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 3: no home runs, four hit, seven strikeouts, one walk. So
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 3: I don't think Warren is going to be intimidated going
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 3: into the stadium because he already went there and did
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 3: that last year.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 5: So he looks like.
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 3: He sets up quite well in this start. To me,
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 3: Jacob Lopez is pitching for the A's and he has
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 3: really not been good. I mean, he looked solid for
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 3: a while last year. He was getting guys to really
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 3: get fool by his curveball, but he's not good. Dude.
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 3: Five point seven to three ra, one point seven to
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 3: seven whip, this is not good. He's been slightly worse
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 3: at home, which makes sense. Five point nine to five
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 3: homy Ra. He's not doing well. He's barely made it
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 3: five innings in like all of his starts this month.
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 3: I know the A's have won more of them than
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 3: they've lost, but overall, he's not been good. Seventeen strikeouts,
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 3: ten walks this month in twenty four innings, and twenty
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 3: eight hits allowed. Not a lot to like about any
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 3: of those numbers. On top of seven home runs allowed,
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 3: he's alloted eleven on the season. Not good. He's allowed
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 3: way more than one hit per inning. Strike out ray Low.
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 5: He's allot a ton of walks.
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 3: His walk number is crazy, dude, he's allowing I mean,
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 3: it's not that close to one per inning, but it's
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 3: way over one upper It's way over one every two
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 3: winnings though. I mean, that's just crazy. And he's an
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 3: extreme fly ball pitcher, so that does not play well
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 3: in the a Stadium. So honestly, I don't even know
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 3: how he was as good as he was last year,
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 3: because yeah, no, there's nothing to like about any of
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 3: this except I guess that the Yankees haven't seen much
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 3: of him. Only Cabeiro and McMahon have ever faced it before.
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 3: Caby Arrow has the only hit, a single. They're one
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 3: for three combined off him, with no strikeouts and no walks.
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 3: But I would not trust Lopez here. I think the
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 3: Yankees win the game. That's I would lean Yankees in
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 3: some capacity here. I mean, what's their price? You know,
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 3: they're not They're not that heavy of a price, I guess,
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 3: and they're in the minus one sixties. I don't know.
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 3: They're a public side though, ninety two tickets, ninety two
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 3: percent of the cash.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 5: But I don't see how they lose.
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 3: The game really. I mean, they have a significantly better
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 3: starting pitcher, they have a decent bullpen edge here, and
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 3: they have the better offense. So I just I think
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 3: the Yankees side is really the only way that I
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 3: could see looking at this game, to be honest. Yeah,
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 3: I mean I guess you could do a split beat
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 3: run line money line, make your own minus one run
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 3: line something like that. Maybe that is the way to
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 3: do it. The money is disagreeing, though, and the Yankees
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 3: are public, so I don't like seeing that, and I
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 3: think it's really again, it's just the professional betters basically
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 3: are just like, well, the Yankees are always overpriced, so
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 3: you have to fade them, right, you have to take
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 3: you know, the value by fading them. Yeah, with this matchup,
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 3: I just I don't see any way that I would
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 3: want to do that, So I would lean Yankees. Barlow?
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 3: What's that? What are we talking about here? I don't
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 3: get the uh oh, that's Barlow? Is the guy with
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 3: the long hair?
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 5: Is that you're saying?
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 3: All right? Thank you? Is that right? That hair is solid? Yeah,
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 3: there you go, Scott Barlow, Yes, thank you, Yes, that
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 3: is him, solid solid hair. Dude. He's a what is he?
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 3: He's the relief pitcher, right, he looked he looked like
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 3: he was a pitcher. Yeah, that is some great hair, dude.
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 3: All right, we got Arizona and Seattle. Seattle is on
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 3: the verge of a sweep, peer I believe. Yeah, Seattle's
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 3: playing better baseball right now. They've won five games in
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 3: a row, they're above five hundred now, they're in first
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 3: place in the Al West. Possible they overlook Arizona though
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 3: in a series finale where they've already won the series.
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 5: Seattle plays the Mets next.
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 3: I don't know if that's that big of a deal though,
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 3: So you know, I don't know, but yeah, you might
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 3: get more motivation out of Arizona here to try to
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 3: avoid the sweep. Arizona, they're not a horrible team. Arizona
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 3: used two relief pitchers yesterday. Seattle also used two. Arizona's
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 3: bullpen has confused me. Man. They're almost below four for
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 3: an ERA now and they're ranked third still and whip
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 3: where they've been like most of the season. So you know,
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 3: I guess whip is more of an indicator, man, you know,
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 3: which is why I arrange it that way. I guess
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 3: I have to admit Arizona's bullpen is decent. At least
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 3: Seattle's bullpen is ranked seven teams, but they still have
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 3: a way better er, So I think Seattle's bullpen is solid.
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 3: Both bullpends are decent. Got to give him credit here.
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 3: Hitting wise, Arizona's thirteenth, Seattle actually has overtaken them. Seattle's
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 3: offense is finally breaking out, dude, and they're at twelfth now,
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 3: so we're finally seeing Seattle play kind of like they
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 3: did last year. I still think Seattle is one of
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 3: the best teams in the American League based on who
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 3: they have on the roster and whatever. So yeah, and
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 3: I think they should win this division. Obarlow is their closer,
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 3: Thank you, dude. That's yeah. I mean he's got the
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 3: hair for it, at least I guess. I don't know,
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 3: but of course they did have Mason Miller until they
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 3: traded him over to San Diego. You know where. He's
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 3: reached another echelon there because it's way more pitcher friendly.
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 3: Merril Kelly is pitching for Arizona here. He's turned it around. Dude.
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 3: I know his numbers look really bad, but he's not
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 3: as bad as these numbers make him look. Five point
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 3: two five RA one point four to two whip. I
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 3: know he's old, he's thirty seven, but you look at
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 3: his career numbers, he's had a solid career. Even last
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 3: year he was solid, although he was with Texas last
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 3: year and now he's back with his former team Arizona.
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 3: But I think part of the reason why his numbers
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 3: are really bad is because he came back from an injury.
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 3: He had a delayed start to the season. He didn't
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 3: get going right away. But his last four starts have
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 3: all been quite good and Arizona's won all of them.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 3: He's won all of them, so he's definitely pitching a
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 3: lot better recently, so he's it looks like to me
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 3: he's back in form. Then included a complete game for
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 3: the first time in his career against the Rockies, but
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 3: it was in course field at least. But yes, I mean,
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 3: you don't want to weigh this too heavily though, like
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 3: you know, you don't want to overreact, like, oh my god,
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 3: he's so good right now, because these starts are against
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 3: the Mets, Colorado, yes, in course field, and then the
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 3: Giants twice, so that is not a gauntlet of offenses.
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 3: But I still think he is definitely better than what
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 3: he looked like when he was first coming back though,
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 3: so there is that Now he's facing Seattle. Seattle is
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 3: better than all those offenses I just listed off, but
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 3: he does have decent numbers against them fifty four at
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 3: bats two, forty one batting average, seven, thirty eight ohps,
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 3: thirteen to four strikeout walk ratio. Given decent matchup numbers,
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 3: Given that his career numbers suggest that he is better
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 3: than this, that he's in better recent form right now,
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 3: I would lean more towards Kelly pitching well here than not.
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 3: And he is going up against Bryce Miller, who has
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 3: been dealing with some injuries recently as well. He's had
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 3: good numbers for the Mariners so far, but I believe
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 3: he's only made three appearances so far because he's trying
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 3: to return from injury as well. But he's been good
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 3: so far. Two point twenty five ERA one whip and
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 3: before his injury stuff, he was a pretty good pitcher
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 3: as well. He's got a zero ERA at home so far,
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 3: but it was in one start. It was against the
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 3: White Sox, so that was still a good sign. He's
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 3: actually faced some pretty good offenses so far, Houston and
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 3: then the As, both of those on the road and
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 3: the White Sox at home, and he's allowed no more
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 3: than touring runs in any of those outings. That's a
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 3: good sign, dude. He's going up against some good offenses
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 3: and he's pitching well. He's allowed fourteen hits in sixteen innings,
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 3: two walks and fourteen strikeouts. Those are some good numbers,
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 3: so I think Miller should do well here as well.
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 3: Arizona basically has never seen him before. Only Arnado has
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 3: ever faced him, and he's one for three with a
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 3: strikeout against him, So I think both pitchers line up
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 3: to do pretty well. Here. Both bullpends seem like the
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 3: lineup okay here, So I would lean under in this game.
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 3: It's not on my card, but you know, there are
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 3: some question marks here that I just don't love.
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 5: But the money's agreeing with me.
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 3: It looks like on the under, seventy five percent of tickets,
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 3: ninety percent of the cash on the under. Is finally
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 3: we're seeing some more percentages come in. Come on, wager talk,
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 3: odds logic, get your stuff going here. Seven and a
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 3: half is the total. Of course, part of that is
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 3: because this is it's a very pitcher friendly ballpark. But yeah,
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 3: the oddsmakers are telling you they think it'll be a
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 3: low scoring game. I would agree. If I was gonna
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 3: play the game, I would go under while you can
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 3: get the under seven and a half. That's how I
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 3: would do it. The money's indicating on Seattle, fifty three
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 3: percent of ticket, sixty two percent of the cash. On Seattle,
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 3: they're around minus one fifty here. It's a bit of
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 3: a price to lay. I don't think I would want
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 3: to do that because you know Arizona's trying to avoid
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 3: the sweep. Peer I think Arizona could hang in this game,
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 3: so I don't think I would want to do that.
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be a close, slow scoring game
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 3: in my opinion, so I don't really have a good
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 3: read on the side. Although I might slightly agree that
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 3: Miller has a slight edge over Kelly here and Seattle
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 3: may have a slight bullpen edge, but it's not much,
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 3: you know. I think these teams are pretty closely matched.
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 3: So with that price on Seattle, I actually think that
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 3: I would lean Arizona getting them as an underdog. I
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 3: think you might have them as a bit too big
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 3: of an underdog here, basically because I think the oddsmakers
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 3: are kind of factoring in Kelly's over wrong numbers, which
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 3: I think are a bit misleading, and I think Arizona
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 3: has a little bit more motivation trying to avoid the sweeps.
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 5: So that's what I think about that game.
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 3: Uh, Philadelphia at the Dodgers. Now here's what I think
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 3: happened here yesterday, Because you remember Andrew Painter was supposed
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 3: to start yesterday for Philly against Asaki, and I was like, well,
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 3: I would trust Sasaki more than Painter, but then Philly
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 3: changed it up and they said, no, we're actually going
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 3: with Luzardo and then I said, well, Lozardo has better
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 3: matchup numbers against the Dodgers. He's way better on the road.
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 3: So I shifted my opinion to the under and I
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 3: wound up being correct. Wish I gave it out as
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 3: a play there, man, But here's what I think the
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 3: thought was with Philadelphia, with their new manager Don Maddingly.
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 3: I think this is what he felt. I think he
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 3: was like, look, man, if we're gonna we're gonna have
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 3: to face Yamamoto on Sunday. Yamamoto is pitching today, so
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 3: I think Philly is throwing today's game basically. I think
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 3: Philly was basically like, tomorrow is going to be a lot.
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 3: That's it. Like, we're facing Yamamoto, We're not gonna win
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 3: that game. So rather than put you know, a very
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 3: untrustworthy pitcher out against Asak game possibly get swept. I
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 3: think Philly was like, no, we're gonna put Luzardo out there. Instead,
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 3: give us a chance to at least win this game,
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 3: so at least we can get one game in the series.
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 3: I think that's what Philly was doing there. I think
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 3: they're assuming they're gonna lose this game, so maybe that
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 3: might not be a good mental state to be in.
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 3: But I really think that's what they did, and that's
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 3: why they flip flopped the two starters here, because it
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 3: looks like they're throwing this game, Like why would you
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 3: want Painter up against Yamamoto here? Now, there are some
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 3: things that are not great about the Dodgers set up here, Namely,
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 3: they just lost a six game win streak with that
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 3: loss yesterday, so there is a possible hangover after that.
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 3: When you lose a long win streak, you can get
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 3: hung over a bit. But you know, I just told
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 3: you what the starting pitching matchup this year, and it
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 3: is a huge mismatch in favor of the Dodgers.
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 5: In my opinion.
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 3: The starting pitching is and I also think the Dodgers
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 3: have the better bullpend. Philly used four relief pitchers yesterday
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 3: as well. The Dodgers also used four, But the Dodgers
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 3: have been a very good bullpen. The ranked two right
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 3: now and the Phillies are decent at tenth, but the
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 3: Dodgers have been.
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 5: The better one.
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 3: Dodgers are the number one offense and they have a
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 3: huge edge there. Philadelphia is twenty eighth, so that is
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 3: a concern if you want the Phillies as well. And then,
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 3: of course, like I said, the starting pitching matchup I
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 3: think is a major mismatch. Andrew Painter will get the
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 3: start today instead of yesterday. I did handicap him against
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers yesterday, but he's got a five point four
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 3: ERA one point four to six whip. He's worse on
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 3: the road five point nine to five roadra. He did
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 3: pitch better recently. He's allowed two or fewer on runs
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 3: and three straight outings. But as I pointed out yesterday,
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 3: it was against the Red Sox, the Reds and Cleveland.
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 3: The Dodgers are a different animal here man. And his
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 3: strikeout rate was low, And if you look at his
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 3: numbers both this month and over the course of the season,
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 3: his strike going rate is low. His walk rate's a
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 3: bit too high. His walk rate is actually really high
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 3: this month. Ten walks in twenty six innings, nineteen strikeouts
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 3: and twenty seven hits aloud not good numbers this month,
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 3: and five home runs too, and his hit rate is
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 3: way too high above one per inning.
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 5: So I don't trust Painter.
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 3: Yes, the Dodgers haven't seen him before, and sometimes that
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 3: will be an advantage to a young pitcher. Painter was
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 3: a highly touted prospect, So yeah, I do think he
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 3: might wind up being a good pitcher at some point,
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 3: but right now I wouldn't trust him, and he's gonna
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 3: have to somehow battle Yamamoto here. Yamamoto, obviously, we know
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 3: he's really good. He's got a three point zero nine
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 3: ERA point nine to eight whip for the Dodgers here.
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 3: He's been a bit worse at home though, three point
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 3: seven to seven home ye, ray, not that that's bad,
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 3: though he's pitched well his last two outings. He got
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 3: roughed up a little bit last time at home against
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 3: San Francisco, but it was kind of unlucky. He gave
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 3: up three home runs in that outing, but his numbers
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 3: across the board were good in that start otherwise, and
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 3: this month his numbers are still excellent. Twenty one hits
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 3: in twenty six innings, four walks, and twenty seven strikeouts.
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 3: All that is good. He's gone seven innings a piece
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 3: in his last two outings, allowed one and run in
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 3: each on the road against San Diego and Milwaukee, so
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 3: one bad offense and one good offense. His strikeout rates
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 3: is not that high on the season. It's below one
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 3: per inning, but his hit rate as well below one
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 3: per inning is walk rate is low. We get it.
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 3: He's good and he's got pretty good numbers against Philly,
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 3: although not as good as you would think. In thirty
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 3: one at bats two fifty eight. Batting average allowed seven
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 3: to sixty two oh ps is slightly high, seven strikeouts,
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 3: four walks. So yeah, Philly. I mean they've hit Yama
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 3: Model a little bit in the past, but they don't
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 3: have like great offensive numbers against some or anything.
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 5: Most teams do not.
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 3: I don't think Yama Modo is gonna pitch poorly here.
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 3: I think the Dodgers are gonna win this game. They
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 3: do have the money coming in on them. I just
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 3: think they have too many advantages here seventy four percent
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 3: of tickets, eighty four percent of the cash on them.
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 3: But you're having to lay minus two sixteen or so
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 3: on them here minus two twenty. You know that price
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 3: is just kind of crazy. I know it's the Dodgers,
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 3: I know it's Yamamoto, but you know you're not getting
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 3: any value.
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 5: By laying a price like that.
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 3: And the total, by the way, is high at nine,
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 3: so the oddsbeakers are kind of expecting runs here, possibly
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 3: in both directions, which is interesting. I mean, I don't
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 3: know if I would necessarily disagree with an over here.
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 3: I think maybe the best way to play this is
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 3: Dodgers over the team total, though I know they have
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 3: a bunch of advantages, but I think they should be
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 3: able to get to Painter a little bit and the bullpen.
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 3: But still it is a mystery because Painter is unfamiliar.
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 3: So there are too many mysteries here. I'm not gonna
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 3: do anything with the game. Kyle, what's up?
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 5: Thanks for hanging out.
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 3: And then we have the NBC Peacock Night game is
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 3: Cubs and Cardinals. It's Sammy so So against Mark McGuire. Man.
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 3: I remember those matchups back in the day, that home
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 3: run race. That was some of the most entertaining baseball. Man,
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 3: we got to bring steroids back. They should let all
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 3: the steroid users get into the Hall of Fame.
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 5: Man, I don't fucking care.
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 3: Everybody use them. You're telling me that there's nobody in
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 3: the Hall of Fame that use steroids. Give me a break.
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 3: These teams have split the first two games of the series.
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 3: By the way, I did lean to the Cubs yesterday,
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 3: and they did get the job done behind another good
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 3: performance from Ben Brown yesterday. So I don't know, you know,
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 3: I don't want to say I'm mad for leaving that
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 3: one off my card, but that was kind of in
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 3: the mix in consideration for me yesterday the Cobs. So
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 3: they did get the win yesterday. The Cubs are the
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 3: better team here. Cubs used two relief pitchers yesterday Saint
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 3: Louis used four. But of course this is a night game,
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 3: it's a divisional game. Each team has won a game
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 3: in the series. You know both teams are gonna show
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 3: up here. Cubs have a more rested bullpen and a
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 3: better bullpen though the rank seventh than bullpen Saint Louis is.
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 3: Where are they twentieth? So yeah, the Cubs have a
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 3: decent bullpen at year. The Cubs offense has been better
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 3: as well. They're eighth. Saint Louis has dropped off a
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 3: little bit after they're pretty hot early in the season.
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 5: They're sixteenth right now.
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 3: But this pitching matchup, oh god, the Cubs are going
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 3: with Jordan Wicks, who I believe they brought him back
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 3: up from the minors or he came back from injury.
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 3: I don't know what the deal was with him. I
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 3: know his numbers are absolutely like, they're absolutely awful, sixteen
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 3: point six two ERA two point three.
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 5: To one whip, I know.
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 3: But he only made one start so far, and maybe
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna give him a little bit of a pass
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 3: for that because it was at Pittsburgh. You know, Pittsburgh
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 3: hits well at home. I know he got rocked. He
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 3: gave up eight runs, nine hits, four and a third innings.
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 3: All the runs were earned, five strikeouts in one walk.
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 3: Wasn't that bad though, so he was way too hittable,
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 3: but his command was decent, So I don't really think
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 3: he's that bad. He's at least I don't think he's
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 3: as bad as he looked in that outing. We can
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 3: go back and look at what he's done in the past. Though.
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 3: He was good in twenty twenty three with the Cubs
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 3: and they were using him as a starter. Then use
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 3: him as a starter in twenty twenty four and he
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 3: really wasn't very good, and then he pitched justin in
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 3: relief a little bit in twenty twenty five. Might have
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 3: gotten injured or they might have just sent him down
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 3: to the minors. I don't know what they did, but
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 3: he wasn't really cutting it. So yeah, while he's not
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 3: as bad as his numbers look right now, his career
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 3: numbers don't inspire a ton of confidence, so I'm you know,
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 3: I'm not very confident in him. His numbers against Saint Louis, however,
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 3: are actually good in twenty two at bats one eighty
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 3: two batting average, three sixty four ohps, no extra base hits,
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 3: eight strikeouts, no walks, So he might actually pitch well
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 3: here given that matchup. More pitcher from the stadium Saint
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 3: Louis is going with Matthew Libertrre. He's been not great
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 3: four point seven six ERA, but a really bad one
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 3: point five to seven whip. You cannot put more than
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 3: one and a half guys on basin anyman. His ERA
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 3: should be higher than that based on how bad that
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 3: whip is. He's been worse at home five point one
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 3: six homey ram. He's struggling, dude, even though his strikeout
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 3: rate has actually been really high this month. A couple
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 3: of big strikeout games the last couple of games, but
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 3: he's not going deep into these outings. He's allowing too
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 3: many of them. He's allowing too many runs, excuse me,
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 3: and too many hits. He's allowed thirty one hits in
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 3: twenty six and a third innings this month, although he
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 3: has thirty four strikeouts, which is really good. But he
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 3: also has eleven walks, multiple walks in every outing. So
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 3: he's been too hittable and to walk heavy. And yes,
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 3: he's faced some good offenses this month. I know he's
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 3: faced some difficult offenses, but I don't trust him. His
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 3: numbers are bad. He's allowed way over one hit per
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 3: inning on the season. Strikeout rate is decent, but his
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 3: walk rate is really high. He's a lot of decent
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 3: amount of home runs too. His numbers against the Cubs
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 3: are not great and fifty five at bats to seventy
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 3: three batting average allowed, eight forty eight ohps, fourteen to
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 3: nine strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 5: I don't like it, man.
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 3: I you know I might lean to the Cubs in
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 3: this one. I think the Cubs are the better team.
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 5: The money's coming in.
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 3: On Saint Louis, which I don't really love. I still
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 3: think Saint Louis is not as good as the record looks,
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 3: even though they have been playing worse baseball recently, which
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 3: I kind of expected. Uh, they're around minus one twelve
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 3: or so here, minus one fifteen on the money line,
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 3: so they're getting less than home advantage here. So the
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 3: oddsmakers are kind of telling you, even with Wis on
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 3: the mound, they think the Cubs are a little bit
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 3: of the better team here. But the money is hitting
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis sixty two percent of tickets seventy eight percent
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 3: of the cash on Saint Louis, so the money is
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 3: indicating that way. The total is fairly high. Eight and
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 3: a half. I think an over doesn't make sense here too.
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 3: I think both starting pitchers are a bit untrustworthy and
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 3: you have one pretty bad bullpen here too, So over
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 3: makes some sense to me as well in this game,
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 3: and maybe that's the better approach here than trying to
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 3: play the Cubs side where. Yeah, I think the pictures
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 3: are kind of untrustworthy, So yeah, over makes sense in
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 3: that game as well. All right, then we have WNBA.
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 3: We don't see the percentages on this. There's only one
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 3: game here on NBC and Peacock in the afternoon three
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 3: point thirty pm Eastern. Who cares, nobody's gonna watch it anyway.
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 3: Golden State, though, they're you know, a rising team in
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 3: the WNBA, and they're up against the returning champs, the
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 3: Las Vegas Aces here the Golden State Valkyries. Golden State's
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 3: coming off a good win over Indiana at home. I
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 3: know Indiana looked really bad last night, but I think
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 3: Indiana is still a decent team. I think they're gonna
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 3: make the playoffs at the very least, even though they're
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 3: out of the playoffs currently. Golden State I think is
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 3: going to be a playoff team as well this year.
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 3: That was a good win for Golden State, but they're
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 3: not gonna be in a letdown spot. They're not gonna
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 3: overlook Vegas, you know, in an isolated game where it's
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 3: the only WNBA game today against the returney champs.
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 5: I don't see that happening.
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 3: Although Golden State's played a pretty weak schedule, though they
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 3: played Seattle, you know, Connecticut in there. The Liberty have
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 3: not been playing well either. Chicago's pretty mediocre, fe Phoenix
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 3: is decent, Indiana twice they're decent. But this hasn't been
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 3: a brutal schedule yet for Golden States, so maybe that's
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 3: a little bit of a concern. The Aces are the
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 3: better team even though they have the worst record. The
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 3: odds makers are telling you that because Vegas is like
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 3: a one and a half two point.
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 5: Favorite here on the road.
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 3: So they're telling you the Aces, despite having the worst record,
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 3: they're the better team. They faced a little bit more
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 3: of a difficult schedule. I guess with Atlanta, well, I
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 3: don't know. Atlanta, Dallas in their LA twice, Phoenix, I
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 3: don't know. But Vegas has been better on the road
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 3: though they've won almost all of their road games and
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 3: they've lost both their home games. They're coming off a
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 3: loss on the road against Dallas a few days ago.
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 3: Both teams have similar both teams have a similar amount
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 3: of rest here. I don't have a good opinion on this, man,
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 3: I would lead Vegas just because the oddsmakers are telling
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 3: you they're the better team despite the records. Vegas is
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 3: coming off somewhat of an ugly loss against Dallas. Golden
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 3: State's having to play two big games in a row.
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 3: I like Vegas here. That's probably the way I would go,
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 3: laying the small amount of points or maybe even a
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 3: money line. But I don't have a good opinion on this.
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 3: What which game are you talking about the over and
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 3: what game? What?
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 5: What are we talking about here?
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 3: I will answer that if if if I don't end
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 3: the show before then I'll answer that if you tell
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 3: me which game you're talking about. But that's gonna do
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 3: it for today's show man. My two plays are the
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 3: first five inning under in Twins Pirates. I know we're
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 3: going back to that again. I like the starting pitching there. Man,
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 3: We're gonna go with Zebby against Ashcraft, you know, I
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 3: think it's a very under the radar pitching matchup, and
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 3: then we're going another first five but aside, finally, not
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 3: not a total every time for me, that's the Kansas
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 3: City Royals first five innings is my other play. Well back,
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 3: Michael walk on that one Saint Louis at Chicago. The
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 3: total is e and a half right now, you can
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 3: see there on the board. I lean over in that game,
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 3: but yeah, eight and a half. It's it's a reasonable
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 3: total in that game. I know it's a picture friendly ballpark,
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 3: but to me, it looks like that is a It's
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 3: a somewhat hit or conducive matchup there. But it's not
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 3: one of my stronger opinions though. You know, like I said,
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 3: I think my stronger opinions that I left off my
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 3: card are over in San Diego and Washington. I like
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 3: that one, but it looks very public. And then the oh,
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 3: we have a we have a starting pitching change. I
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 3: guess I might have to mention that before I get
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 3: out of here. With Miami here, I don't know what's
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 3: going on Miami unless they're putting an opener in front
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 3: of Junk. I don't know what they're doing here. And
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 3: then the other game that I liked that I almost
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 3: put on my card, what was it again? I don't
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 3: even remember, man, I apologize. I think it was really
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 3: just that one, the over San Diego Washington. That one
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 3: almost made my card. All right, all right, let me
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 3: bring the MLB schedule back up here, hang on annoying. Whoops?
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 3: Which tab was it? Oh my god? No, not the
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 3: aces I there it is. So it looks like some
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 3: guy named King is pitching for Miami. Now he might
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 3: be an he might be like opening in front of junk. Though,
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 3: let me look at their roster here, because I don't
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 3: think I've ever heard of this guy. He's not even
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 3: on the roster, so I don't know what are they
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 3: doing here. I'm gonna look up who this guy is King? Right,
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 3: j King? Who the fuck is that a lefty? It
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 3: is John King. He is a relief pitcher. No, he
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 3: is there. I don't know he's listen, he's listed on
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 3: Miami's roster. I don't know what's going on with that.
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 3: Hang on, I'm bringing him in. Yeah, I don't know
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 3: why he wasn't there, but he's got a one point
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 3: nine to three arra point six' nine.
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 5: Whip. YEAH i think he's gonna be an.
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 3: Opener he's gone for the most, Part he's gone like
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 3: an inning every time he's gone out.
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 5: THERE i think he's an. Opener so.
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 3: Whatever he's got mediocre numbers against The, mets let's, say
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 3: BUT i don't think that really. MATTERS i think it
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 3: will still Be junk pitching behind. Him but it looks
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 3: like they're just putting an opener in front Of. Junk
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 3: that would be my. Guess i'm not one hundred percent
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 3: sure about. That but you, know if you wanted to
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 3: play The mets in that, GAME i don't think it
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 3: changes the handicap that. Much SO i think if you
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 3: Go mets, here LIKE i, SAID i would lean to
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 3: The mets BECAUSE i like. McLain you, Know mets first
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 3: five probably makes more, sense LIKE i was, saying BECAUSE
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 3: i Think miami does have a little bit of a
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 3: bullpen edge. There if you Go mets first, five it
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 3: really doesn't change the handicap that. Much so if you
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 3: Go mets first, five go action with, it so you
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 3: don't have to worry about what the Hell miami's doing
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 3: as far as they're starting pitching.
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 5: There all, RIGHT i think that's gonna do. It, Man
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 5: so you got.
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 3: My, Plays learn a tone On, twitter learn a tone On,
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 3: Instagram go check me out, everywhere, like subscribe to the show. Here,
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 3: yeah let's get these numbers, up. Man listen on, Audio, Apple, Spotify.
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 3: Spreaker the numbers are slowly going up a little, bit
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 3: uh in both. Places let's get that. Going tell everybody about.
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 3: It hopefully we can go back on a hot streak.
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 3: Here just you, know recently we've been, uh we've been
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 3: still you, know we've been in a lull, recently but
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 3: overall pretty. Hot ended last year really well and went
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 3: on some nice runs in THE, nfl and then most
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 3: of this year has been good. Too so let's keep it.
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 3: Going what's? Uh what's? Up J? C i see you
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 3: in the. Chat they're about to get out of here.
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 3: THOUGH jc is, everywhere. Folks what else WAS i gonna? Say? Oh,
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 3: yeah covered In you because my yuke channel on YouTube
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 3: you can checked. Out AND i have Another you cover
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 3: idea THAT i got to get up there Soon patreon dot,
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 3: com slash and Learn it. Toad you can support me.
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 3: THERE i got to get my voice back to do
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 3: the cover That Harry balls wants me to, do So
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 3: i'm gonna get that done soon, ish but go check,
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 3: out check me out at all those. Places throw me
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 3: some support if you. Can Loser cast will be back On.
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 3: Tuesday gotta figure out a. LOSER i need a. LOSER
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 3: i gotta figure out Who i'm gonna pick for a
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 3: loser this. Week there are some, OPTIONS i, suppose and
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 3: then g Spot giants. PODCAST i gotta talk To. BEN
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 3: i feel LIKE i say that every, episode but we
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 3: will do some sort of draft reaction plus season preview
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 3: whatever at some, point And mike is subscribe to the
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 3: channel here because of Course i'll do an Extra Belmont
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 3: steaks episode that'll be coming up. Soon and you, KNOW
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 3: i don't know What i'm gonna do with The World.
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 3: Cup LIKE i, SAID i don't really HAVE i don't
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 3: know anything about The World cup really EXCEPT i know
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 3: my ancestors In italy didn't even make The World cop this,
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 3: year even though they're they're almost always in, IT i
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 3: think because they're one of the better soccer.
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 5: Countries SO i don't know what's going on with.
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 3: That THAT'S i think my other ancestors are in it
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 3: somewhere sweet and but they're not that. Good so. Whatever,
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 3: anyway what else DID i have to? Say? NO i
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 3: think that was about. It but, yeah if you subscribe
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 3: to me here you will get the notifications for.
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 5: Me, YEAH i think that's about.
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 3: It but, Yeah World. Cup WHAT i will at least
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 3: do Is i'll fill out AN espn knockout bracket once
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 3: it gets to the knockout. Stages LIKE i, said they
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 3: do have another game where you picked like just the
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 3: ordering that the teams are gonna come in in each,
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 3: group kind of like WHAT i did with THE.
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 5: Nfl but it's JUST i did it in a very boring.
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 5: WAY i don't know anything.
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 3: About, soccer SO i JUST i did it literally just
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 3: based on the. Odds so. WHATEVER J. C. Zach what's up, Everybody?
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 3: ZACH i will tell, You, zach you missed. IT i
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 3: have a play today on The, Royals Your royals on
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 3: the first Five, Only first five money. Line we're Backing
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 3: Michael waka today for one of my. PLAYS i like
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 3: it and trying to avoid the sweep there as. Well
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 3: but first five only because Your, royals you're bold and
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 3: it's just so.
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 4: Bad.
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 3: Dude that's gonna do. It i'll be back.
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 5: TOMORROW i guess it'll be a bit of a shorter board.
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 5: Tomorrow that's gonna do.
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 3: It, yes, yeah walk A, floka walka walka that's gonna do.
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 3: It peace, vodka but don't you go.
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 2: Quiet don't you fade from the. Floor your name still
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 2: mean something to somebody for. Show put the glass, down,
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 2: baby look at.
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 4: Me no hold, on hold on, nothing no hold, on
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 4: hold on let me that bites, hot but it don't
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 4: get the. Crown hold, on hon't stay with me, now