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College Basketball Preview 2026-27 | Duke Is OVERVALUED?! | NCAAB Futures Picks · Toadstool Sports

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Well, college basketball starting on Sunday. For some reason, I
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: thought it was starting on Tuesday, but I'm wrong. It's
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: starting on Sunday. I don't know anything about the personnel
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: changes pretty much, so I've got some stuff up here
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: to try to guide me with this. We're just trying
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: to see maybe where there might be some future value
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: here on some of these teams as far as what
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: the betting odds are. tell you, but you got to
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: kind of interpret what the betting odds are telling you.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: And a lot of times I want to kind of
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: fade what we saw last year. If the betting odds
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: are telling you that something completely different is going on
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: with this particular team, I'm going to try to parse
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: it all out. I think this is going to be
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: a quick show, but I said I was going to
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: do a preview show. So I'm going to do it.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Don't really, I mean, I would say, yeah, don't put
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: much weight into what I'm about to say here, just
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: because who knows, again, you know, me, I'm more of a,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: a game-by-game handicapper, like a scheduling situation handicapper. So don't
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: listen to me. But, I mean, if you want to
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: just listen to me talk, like, listen to me BS, then, yeah, sure.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: This is coming up, yeah, after this horrendous intro that
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: I have. You got a slip in your palm and
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: a hole.
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: In your chest.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Black coffee on the felt, man, you look like a mess.
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: Three-team parlay turned to dust in your hand. Now you
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: stare at the chips like they made you this man.
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from the floor.
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: Your name still means something to somebody for sure.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Put the glass down, baby.
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: Look at me now Hold on, hold on Not tonight,
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: not now.
• 2:05
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on Let me pull you out That
• 2:14
  Speaker 4: fella fights hard But he don't get the crown Hold on,
• 2:23
  Speaker 4: hold on, stay with me now.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I'm just going to go down, uh, the,
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: we only have the odds for the power conferences, but
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: that's what I'm doing. I mean, there are too many
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: conferences to go into that much detail with all of them.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: So we'll do that. We'll try to figure out like,
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: what are the changes with these teams? If I even know,
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Uh, let's, let's try to get into it, man.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: I have the betting odds up here. I think I'm
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: allowed to show this as long as I'm not placing
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: any wagers here. I'm not even logged in. So, you know, um, And,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: of course, my Boston College Eagles here, not listed because
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: we're in the state of Massachusetts here, and the rules
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: are the rules. But do we really think BC is
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: going to have any sort of real impact on this landscape? No,
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: obviously not. They're ass. They're never going to be good
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: again in football or basketball, so whatever. ACC is the
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: first conference up because it's alphabetical. No surprise that Duke
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: is favored against the whole field to win again at
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: minus 136. We know Duke. They're an elite program. They reload.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: They do have some of their starters coming back. They
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: lost Boozer to the NBA draft, but some of their
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: guys are coming back, and they made a huge offseason move.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: The biggest move that they made was they got Blackwell
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: from Wisconsin, so he's going to be in the mix
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: for them as well. A lot of talent on this team. Obviously,
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, they have one of the best chances to
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: win this conference again, obviously. If there's any competition in
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: this conference, it will come from Louisville. who's have the
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: next best odds here at plus four 25 Louisville made
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: a lot of, uh, moves in the transfer portal. I'm
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: pretty sure like they were one of the teams that
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: hit the transfer portal really hard and they're expected to
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: compete this year and be good. I mean, they've already
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: been fairly good in the past, but, um, I honestly
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: think this is a two-horse race. I think it's either
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Duke or Louisville is going to win this conference. Honestly,
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: I don't really see much of a reason why it
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: won't be Duke yet again, unless I see something else.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, Louisville's new pieces are going to take time
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: to gel and whatever. You could say that about Blackwell
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: with Duke as well. You have Virginia here and then Miami.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Virginia plus 590, Miami plus 770. I mean... these are
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: still programs with coaches that haven't been there that long.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Like Virginia's coach, I think it's in, I think both
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: coaches are in their second year there. And usually I
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: think the big leap forward comes like in the coach's
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: third season, although that's not really a hard and fast rule,
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: but I'm not entirely sold on those two teams really.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: So unfortunately, I mean the value here, it, The value
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: may actually lie with Louisville just because you're getting plus
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: 425 here and you're getting a nice underdog price there.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: But I don't really see Duke not winning the ACC
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: yet again here. I could be surprised. And then one
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: of the things you'll notice is that Clemson, who's been
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: one of the main competitors in this conference, they look
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: like they're falling off a little bit right now at
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: 30-1 here to win this conference. So they're expected to
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: take a little bit of a step back here.
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the ACC, not a very interesting conference, so it's
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: a bad conference except basically for just the teams that
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: are at the very top. It's a top-loaded conference. Then
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: we have the Big 12 up next year. The Big
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: 12 is a little bit interesting. It's a little bit
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: of a cluster here at the top with Arizona, who
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: has been one of the best teams in this conference
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: recently for, I don't know, for a few years at
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: least recently here. They're at at plus 215 to win it.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Kansas plus 350. Houston also plus 350. Iowa State plus 550.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech plus 840. Those are the teams that have, like,
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: the actual, I would say, legitimate shots of winning this conference.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: And to me, my read on this would be that
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: maybe Kansas is actually the way to look for some
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: value here. Like, why would Kansas have the second best
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: odds to win this thing when the last couple years
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: have been a little bit down for them, right? Like,
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: they were a, seven seed in the tournament two years
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: ago they were whatever a five seed four four seed
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: i think this past year kansas is expected to compete
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: this year and part of that is because the teams
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: that are at the top here a lot of them
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: like have uh they're losing returning production here a lot
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: of these teams are uh kansas kind of included in
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: that kansas of course we know they lost their best player, Peterson,
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: to the NBA draft, and they lost Badunga in the
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: transfer portal. I already forget where all these players are going.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: He went to Louisville, so there you go. I just
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: talked about Louisville. That was one of Louisville's biggest acquisitions
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: there in the transfer portal, so bolstering, I guess, in
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: my opinion, that Louisville is going to be taking a
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: little bit of a step forward again here. But yeah, for... Kansas, yes,
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: they did lose a couple of those big pieces, but
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: they also did add Trey Kaufman-Wren, who graduated from Purdue,
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: and I believe he got drafted into the NBA by
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: the Timberwolves, I want to say, and then.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what the rules are at this point,
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: but you can get drafted and then you can still
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: go back to college. I don't know why this is
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: allowed at this point. That's what he's doing, though, and Kauffman-Wren,
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: even though I think he's probably like 25 at this point,
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: I don't even know. He's going to be on Kansas,
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: so they have a guy that has a lot of experience.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, he hasn't played in this program. He spent,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: I think, his whole career with Purdue, but Kauffman-Wren will be...
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: on Kansas and I think that does give them some
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: strong experience there whereas I don't really think the other
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: teams around them really match that kind of acquisition and
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: the other teams around them kind of just lost guys
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: like Arizona Arizona I think does still have Crevas coming
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: back but they lost a lot of their pieces I'm
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: pretty sure Houston I think is almost sort of looking
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: like they might have to rebuild a little bit with
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: Calvin Sampson they are kind of like a reload team
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: but I don't know, man. I don't know what Houston's
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: going to actually look like this year, even though they
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: are well-coached, and they usually are at least stacked with
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: physical players, at least. Iowa State lost Mumsilovic, one of
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: their best players, to Kentucky. So they're, I think, going
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: to take a little bit of a step back as
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: well after they were one of the elite teams in
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: this conference. Texas Tech is interesting because JT Taupin got
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: hurt at the end of the year last year, didn't
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: play in the tournament. And he's still there. So Texas
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: Tech has a little bit of returning production there. So
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: I think if you want a sort of long shot,
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: I kind of like Texas Tech here just because, again,
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: the teams that are around the top of this conference,
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: a lot of them didn't do that much, I don't think,
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: during the offseason. The Big 12 generally might take a
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: little bit of a step back as a conference here,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: even though they've been a very potent conference, a very
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: powerful conference. I think the value here is either on
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Houston at a plus three 50 or Texas tech and
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: plus eight 40. Uh, that's kind of my read here.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: I think it's a little bit of a wide open
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: conference here. And then BYU is next at 26 to one,
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: but I don't, I don't see BYU doing a whole
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: lot here. They're going to take a step back cause
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: they lost to bonds out of the draft and whatever. So,
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: and they're not really one of those programs that just
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: reloads really easily either.
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: Um, Yeah.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: That's about it there. I mean, as far as the
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: rest of the like real long shots, I don't see
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: a whole lot there. You know, Sean, what's up, man?
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. Yes. Is that a good thing?
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Do you like the stash? I don't know. I mean,
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: I think I'm going to have to get rid of it,
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: but I'm this is, it has to do with what
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: I'm going to do for Halloween. But I, I think
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: I'm still going to have to get rid of the stash, though.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Even for the costume, though. Even though the costume has
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: something to do with the stash.
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: Oh, Mr.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Pinsey. All right, that's you. You're doxing yourself? Oh, shit. Oh,
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: I should have known that because you called me sewed.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: I just thought it was a typo. System of a Down? Yeah.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Love that band. Hell yeah. All right. Big... Where are
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: we at? Big East. Big East, UConn. You know, of course,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: we know UConn's always at the top of this conference.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: they're well coached, you know, whatever, I mean, UConn is
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: still going to stick around, oh, by the way, I
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: did forget to mention, before I get away from it,
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: in the ACC, North Carolina, I mean, we know they're
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: like a powerhouse program, but they're at 35-1 right now,
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, they made, their big move was to get
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: Mike Malone as their coach from, he was the coach
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: of the Denver Nuggets, although, was he their coach last
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: year already, I don't know, but I I know that
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: was one of the moves there, but North Carolina, not
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: expected to do a whole lot. Again, a 35-1 there.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: And with a new coach, I would expect there to
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: be growing pains there as well. Okay. Big East, yes.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: UConn is at plus 138 to win it. UConn, some
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: returning production there, I think. They're obviously going to be
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: one of the top teams in this conference again. Maybe
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: a little bit overvalued, though, after what they did last year.
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: St.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: John's at plus 270. Everybody knows about St. John's as well.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: well coached with, uh, I got to do it, man.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: With our man there at St. John's. Yeah.
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: Inside.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: I want to kill myself. Yeah. I believe Rick Pitino
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: is still there. Um, but, uh, St. John's, they made
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: one like pretty big off season, um, acquisition, which, uh,
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: through the transfer portal, which was getting you Sufu from Baylor.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: That was their main move there. Uh, But everybody already
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: kind of knows, yeah, that these are the top two
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: teams in the Big East. And might it be a
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: year where maybe another team enters the picture here or
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: re-enters it? Maybe. I mean, Marquette is interesting because they're
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: at plus 640 after St. John's plus 270, UConn plus 138.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Marquette was really bad in this conference last year. But
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: you remember they were good for the years leading up
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: to that. It looks like maybe Marquette is expected to
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: take a big step forward again this year, and I
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: believe they still have Shaka Smart there and whatever, even
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: though say what you want about him, maybe he's not
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: actually that good of a coach. But this is not
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: that good of a conference either, and Marquette has been
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: a very competitive program in this conference over the last
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: few years until last year. Marquette, the fact that they
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: have the third best odds here, and they did absolutely
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: nothing last year leads me to believe nobody's going to
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: want to bet Marquette here. And I think that means
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: that maybe they might be a solid bet here at
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: plus six 40. Like why are they considered to be
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: the third best team in this conference this year when
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: they were one of the worst teams in the conference
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: last year? So that, is one of the things that
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: kind of sets off alarm bells for me. So I
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: think maybe there's some value. To me, that means, I
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: don't know about value, but to me, oddsmakers are almost
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: telling you Marquette is going to be better this year,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: better than people think they will be. And people have
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: a misperception based on how bad they were last year.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: So I think Marquette is not that bad of a
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: play if you want to take them here. Villanova is
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: kind of on the rise again at plus 690 here.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: They do have that name recognition around them. I don't
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: know if I'm entirely sold. I know I faded them
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: right away in the tournament last year. I don't know.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: I think they're still kind of rebuilding in a way,
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: so I don't know about them. Creighton looks like they're
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: expected to take a little bit of a step back,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: plus 1250. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: their coach is now gone, which was... I don't even
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: remember his name. I might be wrong about that. Hold on,
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: let me see. I don't want to say anything that's
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: totally incorrect here. Hold on. Because I know Creighton's been
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: one of the better teams in this conference recently. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: that's right. Greg McDermott is gone, and they are going
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: to have Alan Huss now as their coach. So Creighton's
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: going to have some growing pains. I think Huss is
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: coming over from... I believe he was at High Point. So.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Creighton's going to have a little bit of growing
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: pains there, I think, bringing him over, although he seems
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: like he knows what he's doing, and he is a
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: good coach. But yeah, Creighton not expected to be as
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: good right now while they're rebuilding, but still have the
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: fifth-best odds to win this conference at plus 1,250. Providence
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: is up 18-1 here, plus 1,800. Providence, I know, was
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: one of the teams that hit the transfer portal the hardest,
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: so they're expected to be significantly better than last year.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: So I think Providence is a long shot. maybe worth
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: a play here. And of course with the futures market,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: you're just trying to get value. Like you just want
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: to throw some money on a team that you think
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: is undervalued. You know, of course, you know, you have
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: to have your money tied up for an entire season though.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: So usually it only makes sense to do it. If
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: you're going to put like big bets down on this thing,
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: but then what you probably want to do is hedge
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: it later on, right? Like you want to like, it's
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: almost like playing the stock market or a prediction market
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: or something like you want to, Uh, or you could
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: play these same teams in a prediction market too, but
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: like you want to play on a team that you
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: think is undervalued. You're not actually expecting them to actually
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: win the conference, but if they get closer to winning
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: the conference that people think as they, you know, run
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: through the conference tournament or whatever, you can find a
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: spot to hedge against them and fade them. You know
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: what I mean? After they exceed expectations and you'll win
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: money on it that way. You know what I mean? Uh,
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: so it's like you're playing the stock market in that way. Um,
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: because you know like when it gets down to it
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: either your bet is actually going to wind up cashing
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: or going against them is going to get you enough
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: money back that you're still going to profit you know
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: what i mean uh so you can figure out like
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: how much you should hedge back and whatever based on
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: what the odds are that you're getting at that point
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: if you've been right throughout the season but yeah i
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: think providence at 18 to 1 i kind of like
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: here and i like marquette at plus 640 just Because
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: those are the two teams that were bad last year
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: that have significantly better odds to win this conference right
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: now than you would expect. So that catches my eye
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: in the Big East. I'm not saying they're going to
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: win and get past UConn and St. John's, but I
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: think there's a chance. I mean, it's not a great conference, obviously.
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: Then we have the Big Ten, which is an interesting conference.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: Illinois has the best odds to win the Big Ten
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: right now, plus 144% They're bringing back a lot of
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: their starters. Stojakovic is going to be back, and whatever
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: the other guy's name is. They're bringing back the Eastern
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: European dudes. I forget the other guy's name. I think
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: I have it up right now. Yeah, I do. Murkovic, yeah,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: so they're bringing those guys back. So Illinois is going
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: to be good again. I mean, this is a Final
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: Four team from last year with some strong amount of
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: returning production coming back. So yeah, Illinois, yeah, they're definitely
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: a competitor here for sure. At plus 144, though, after
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: they made that Final Four run and everybody... Illinois is
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: not a mystery anymore, you know what I mean? Illinois
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: was undervalued in the tournament last year as a 3C,
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: and you saw I filled out my bracket. I had
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: them go into the Final Four in my bracket. I
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: thought there was some value there playing Illinois to get
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: that far. Their offense is great. Their defense leaves something
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: to be desired, though, and that's where... I think I
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: would look elsewhere in this conference just because, again, defense
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: is not that good and they're not really that much
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: of a mystery anymore. I think I like Michigan State
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: in the Big Ten at plus 465 to have some
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: value there. I mean, you're still talking about a Tom
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: Izzo team, right? He's still there, I think. He's been
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: there forever. I think it would have been bigger news
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: that I would have heard about if he wasn't. Michigan
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: State is bringing back Fears, is that his name? They're
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: bringing back their best player, so there is that. And Yeah,
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: it's just a well-coached, solid team. And the fact that
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: they've been a little bit below that upper echelon team
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: in this conference for a little bit now, I think
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: people are going to overlook them, where the oddsmakers are
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: telling you they're actually the second-best team in this conference, essentially.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: So I think Michigan State might be the way to
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: look in this conference as far as where the value is.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: Then we have Nebraska at plus 730, but I see
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: them as being no longer a secret as well, because
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: they made a nice run in the tournament last year.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: Got their first tournament win in program history. They were
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: a surprise last year and were very good. And they
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: are bringing back a lot of those guys. Nebraska's got
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: a lot of the same players from last year because
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: they're one of those programs that they're not like one
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: of those big programs that's reloading. You know what I mean?
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: So they're going to have returning production. So yes, they're
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: going to be good. And as you can see, obviously,
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: the oddsmakers have them as the third best odds to
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: win this conference. I just think that... The secret's kind
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: of out of the bag with them as well, you know,
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: so I'm not convinced, and I think they might have
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: overperformed a little bit last year, so don't love them
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: in this conference necessarily. Michigan at plus 870 is an
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: interesting case because we know they're supposed to take a
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: step back. They won the championship last year, so.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: That's, you know, everybody might look at this and think, well,
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: how is Michigan this low now? But, I mean, everybody
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: does know they lost their coach, May. He's in the
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: NBA now. He's coaching the Dallas Mavericks. That is a
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: big hit. Michigan has to replace their coach. They lost
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: Lendeborg to the draft. They lost Mara to the draft
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: as well. So this is going to be a different
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: Michigan team. They're not going to be as good, I
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: don't think. But then again... has the line undervalued them
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: too much? You know what I mean? That's kind of
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: the question here. And in fact, we should actually bring
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: up Ken Baum in a minute just to see what
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: he says. I'll bring that up when I go to
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: the championship odds, I guess. But yeah, Michigan... I could
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: see both arguments, right? Like I could see all their
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: losses being overvalued, being, I could see that factoring into
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: the market too much, maybe, and maybe making them undervalued
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: a little bit. But then again, we're talking about a
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: team that won the championship last year and people will
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: still have this thought that they're this really good team
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: and they're definitely going to take some sort of step
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: back here. So, I don't love Michigan as far as this,
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: even though the odds look okay-ish as far as value
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: is concerned there. Then we have UCLA at plus 1150. UCLA,
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: good history as far as their program, but in the
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: new Big Ten, it forces them to have to travel
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: away from the Pacific Coast. For Pacific Coast teams, it
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: doesn't make it easy, so I don't really love it.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: Then Ohio State, you know, They've been really good, obviously,
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: throughout their history, but they're at 13-1. They just seem
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: to always be this team that's just barely getting into
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: the tournament recently or not even making the tournament. I mean,
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: we'll see what they can do this year. You know,
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers are telling you they have the six best odds here,
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: so maybe there is some value there on Ohio State. Like,
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: I think they got a little bit screwed last year. Like,
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: I think Ohio State was better last year than people
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: thought they were. So I don't hate Ohio State as
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: a real long shot at, like, 13-1. I guess, you know,
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: maybe you could do that. Penn State, or excuse me, Purdue.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: Penn State, yeah, forget about them. Purdue at plus 1475,
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: you'll know they've dropped way off because they lost multiple
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: key pieces, including Kauffman-Wren. as I mentioned. So this Purdue team,
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: last year I think was kind of the year they
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: needed to do it if they were going to actually
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: win a championship. They won the Big Ten last year,
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: if I remember correctly, even though Michigan was the best
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: team in the Big Ten and won the championship. Purdue
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: won the Big Ten. Purdue was a high seed in
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: the tournament. They made a run to the Elite Eight,
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: and they had a lot of returning production. They had
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: guys that had been on Purdue for three, four years
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: in a row, but now some of those guys aren't
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: there anymore. So Purdue, definitely going to take a step back,
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: and I don't yeah, I don't love it, like, they're
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: not going to be as good, so, unless, you know,
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: their pieces come together and somehow, you know, somehow perform
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: better than expected, but, yeah, then we have USC 26-1,
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: Indiana 27-1, big names kind of in this conference, but, yeah, Indiana,
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, it's, they're not expected to be
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: great at this point, Maryland down at 45-1 after they
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: were really good a couple years ago, but, That was
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: just a really good year for them, and since then
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: they haven't been able to rebuild that. And then Wisconsin
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: at 48-1, losing Blackwell and whatever. Wisconsin, yeah, not looking great,
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: even though they've been a pretty strong program for the
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: most part. And again, they were one of the five
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: seed in the tournament last year or whatever. But yeah,
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: they're looking like they're supposed to take a little bit
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: of a step back here as well. Iowa looks like
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: they definitely are as well at plus 6,000, 60-1, even
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: though the Ben McCollum thing looked like it was going
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: well for Iowa. I mean, they upset Florida in the tournament.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: Looked like a pretty good program, pretty good team last year,
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: at least under McCollum, so we'll see. I think they
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: did lose some of their players, though, so... Yeah, it
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: remains to be seen with them. And then we have
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: the SEC, which may be the toughest conference... right now,
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: to be honest. Florida is considered to be the best
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: odds to win this thing at plus 112. Kind of
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: tough to go against Florida, even though they might be
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a public side, but they're bringing
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: back a bunch of their starters. So this Florida team,
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: a lot of returning production here, as you can see.
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: Condon coming back, you know. Yeah, like lots of guys
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: are returning for Florida here, and there's a reason why
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: they're considered to still be the best team in the SEC.
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: And.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: The only thing is maybe there's not enough value there
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: at plus 112, even though if you asked me to
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: tell you who was going to win the SEC, I'd
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: probably say Florida. But maybe, you know, as far as
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: a value play, maybe it's not there. Alabama at plus 630.
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man. Nate Oates, I assume, is still
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: their coach there. They're never good enough on defense. They
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: always have, like, legal problems and whatever with their guys.
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm not. I'm not sold. I mean,
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: they're a team that just doesn't play any defense. They
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: play really fast, jack up a ton of threes, whatever.
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: Texas is really interesting, though, at plus 850. Sean Miller,
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: their coach at this point, he was one of the
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: biggest buyers during the offseason as far as the transfer
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: portal and as far as recruiting guys out of high
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: school and whatever. Texas... What are they going to coalesce
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: into is the question. They look like they've got a
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: lot of guys. They've got Isaiah Johnson, I think is
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: his name, from Colorado. They've got Punch from TCU. They've
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: got some guys that are supposed to be these standout
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: high school athletes. There were some of the top guys
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: in the recruiting class for this year. So Texas is
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: stacked as far as their... roster is concerned like this
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: Texas team I like it actually I think that they
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: might be the value play in this conference at plus
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: 850 I like it Texas I think as they get
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: going I think they're gonna be one of the best
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: teams in this conference once they figure out their chemistry
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: and stuff like that and you know we saw Texas
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: make that nice run in the tournament last year and
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: people did not expect that I had them winning at
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: least the first game in the tournament against BYU and
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: that was a bet that I made as well that
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: I gave out on the show. So yeah, I like
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: Texas as far as value. I think that would be
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: the way I would look here in the SEC, even
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: though I do still think Florida probably does win this thing.
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: Tennessee at plus 930. I mean, they're always there in
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: the mix. I think Rick Barnes is still their coach.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: They tend to kind of reload and whatever. I mean,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: they're a good program. So yeah, they'll be in the mix.
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: Arkansas is... Plus 1250, maybe supposed to take a little
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: bit of a step back here, although I think it
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: is still Calipari there, but they lost Acuff to the
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: NBA draft, I'm pretty sure, so their best player from
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: last year won't be there anymore. So they're expected to
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: take a little bit of a step back here. Vandy,
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: who kind of overperformed last couple years, in my opinion,
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: at plus 1475. Not really loving that. Kentucky plus 1950. Although,
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: as we did mention, Kentucky did get, who did I mention?
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: Momsilovic from Iowa State. That's an interesting pickup for them.
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: You know, if you want a real, real long shot, like,
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: I don't hate Kentucky at that price at plus 1950.
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: I actually think they're probably a little bit undervalued here.
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: And then... auburn you know i mean i don't know
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: what auburn's gonna look like under a bruce pearl's son
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: who had his first season as their head coach last
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: year didn't go particularly well but you remember they were
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: it was the whole thing everybody was shitting on auburn
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: right last year because uh they didn't have a good
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: record even though the like ken bomb and whatever had
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: them power rated like in a position where they should
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: have made the tournament they like they were actually one
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: of the top like 35 teams in the country but
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: because of their record and their resume it wasn't good
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: enough to get into the tournament even though that was
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: like the debate they could have been like the last
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: team to get in potentially so maybe there is some
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: value in Auburn like they they were better last year
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: than the record indicated they had a tough schedule and
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: whatever they're plus 24 50 and then Oklahoma 30 to
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: 1 Texas A & M 31 to 1 and Georgia
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: 33 to 1 pretty interesting there from teams that you
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: know have Made a little bit of noise in the
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: conference recently. Not expected to do a whole lot there. But, yeah,
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: I think there is value as real long shots like
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: Kentucky and Auburn. But as far as a team that
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: can actually compete in this conference and give you value,
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: I like Texas. So that's what we got there. Plus 850, yeah. Interesting.
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: Now we have the champion pick here. I'm also going
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: to bring up Ken Palm for this. Good old Ken Palm.
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: I haven't been to the site for a while. Oh, wow. Hey,
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: I don't want to show my email, but I'll log in,
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: and then I'll scroll down, and then you won't be
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: able to see it anymore.
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: There you go.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: I'm doxing myself. Yeah, whatever. Now, Ken Baum, you got
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: to take all this with a grain of salt, too,
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: because I don't know how he actually does these, like,
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: preseason rankings here. He just released them, I think, not
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: that long ago. And as far as, like, you know,
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: I recommend buying Ken Baum, by the way. I won't, like,
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: dig into it. Like, you can see this front page,
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: I think, for free. But to see, like, all the
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: additional stats, like, per team and whatever, and the predictions
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: and whatever, you got to buy it. But it's really cheap.
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: I think it's, like, it's still probably, like, somewhere between
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: $ 20 and $ 30 for the whole year. For Ken Baum,
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: $ 20 to $ 30, yeah. So I think it's definitely worth it.
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: I always have it. But I would take these preseason
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: rankings with a bit of a grain of salt because
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: he doesn't have any stats behind these numbers yet, right?
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: So he's just going with, you know, I'm assuming he's
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: looking at, like, who is on this team, and, you know,
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: if there's, like, as far as, like, players that have
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: already played and already have stats, he's factoring that in
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: and whatever. So we'll see how accurate this is. But
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: he actually has Duke as the number one team, then Florida,
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: Houston at number three still, and then Illinois, Kansas, Iowa State, Arizona,
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: Michigan State, Alabama, and Texas are his top ten, and
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: then Connecticut outside of the top ten at number 11.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: tough going for the big East again, maybe here, but
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: that kind of, it fits in a little bit with
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: what I was talking about as far as like when
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: I went down each conference there, right? Like, um, he's
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: pretty high on Duke, Florida, Houston. He's higher on than
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: I am right now, though, but he's high on Kansas
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: and at number five, still likes Illinois, makes sense. He's
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: higher on Iowa State than I was when I just
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: went through that, also higher on Arizona State than I was.
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: He is high on Michigan State, though, has the number eight,
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: so I like that, and he's pretty high on Texas
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: at number 10. He's lower on Connecticut than some people
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: are going to be, and then Alabama, you know, he's
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: probably higher on them than I am right now. But again,
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: Ken Bum, for him, you've got to wait, like, you know,
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: I think you've got to wait at least like a week, really,
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: for his, and maybe even like a week or two
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: to really get like some real good, like power ratings
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: out of, out of that site. You know what I mean?
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: Just cause starting with no statistics, uh, from this season
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: is a little bit difficult. Uh, so, you know, I
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: don't want to overvalue what Ken bomb is telling you early,
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: but Duke does have the best odds to win at
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: plus five 50. Uh, so of course they're an underdog
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: against the field, uh, Florida's plus 600. So those are, uh,
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: in line with what, uh, Ken Baum has. So then
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: UConn at plus 1,200. Ken Baum is basically telling you
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: they're overvalued, though. He has them as the 11th best team,
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: but they have the third best odds. Then you have
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: to ask yourself, like, which one of them is more accurate, right? Like,
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: the oddsmakers are not throwing money away, but Ken Baum
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: is telling you that UConn's kind of overvalued here. So
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: I would kind of lean in that direction and be like, yeah,
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's that much value in you, especially
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: because UConn made the championship last year. I just don't
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: think there's really a lot of value in them at 12-1.
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: I don't hate Florida at 6-1, even though they won
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: the championship last year. A lot of returning production there.
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: For Duke at 5.5-1, until we see them actually do it,
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: I don't think I could do it. Even though I
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: had them in the championship game in my bracket last year,
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: and I did pick Michigan to win the whole thing
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: last year, so I had a solid bracket, except Duke
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: got knocked out by UConn. But yeah, Duke... you know,
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: under John Shire and whatever, they just haven't done it.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: Like they've reached, I think the final four, one or
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: two times that they just haven't gone further than that.
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: And until we see it happen, I don't know if
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: I'd want to bet on it happening, especially when they
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: have the best odds to win. So I think Duke
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: is probably overvalued here. Illinois at 14 to one, just
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: because they made that huge run to the final four
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: last year. I don't love them at 14 to one.
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: even though Ken Baum does have them as a really
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: good team. They're one of the most elite offenses. Michigan
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: State at 18-1, you know I don't hate it because
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: I like them in their own conference, so I don't
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: hate that at 18-1. And Ken Baum has them ranked
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: pretty high as well at number eight, even though the
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers have them at fifth. But I just don't think
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: people are going to necessarily bet on them, even though
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: they have that pedigree behind them or whatever. They just
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: haven't done it recently, you know what I mean? So
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: I think the public's not going to be– jumping on
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: Michigan State, but I kind of like them. Texas has
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: the sixth best odds to win the championship, 19-1, and
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: I kind of like that, too. I don't think people
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: are going to really think that highly of Texas, even
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: though they made whatever the Sweet 16, or the Elite 8,
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: did they make last year, or was it the Sweet 16?
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: I forget. Whatever it was, yeah, I mean, yeah, I
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: think that they will still be I think the public
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: is going to overlook them still a little bit. So
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: I do like Texas at 19-1. Arizona's at 20-1. Don't
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: really love that. Louisville at 23-1. I don't know about that.
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: Either than St. John's. plus 24-58, Arkansas 25-1, Texas Tech 25-1,
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: Tennessee 26-1, Houston 28-1, although Ken Baum is way higher
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: on Houston than the odds, so that's really interesting. So
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: Ken Baum basically thinks that Houston's just going to reload
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: and again just be really well coached and be really
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: good again. So yeah, I think the reality somewhere between
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: the two. So maybe at that price, maybe there is
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: some value on Houston there in the championship market, but
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man. And then Kansas at 30-1. And
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: Ken Bum has them as the number five team, and
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: I do like them to be undervalued here. So there's
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: a real, real long shot. Kansas at 30-1 doesn't seem
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: too bad to me. And they do have that pedigree
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: behind them and good coaching and whatever. Is Self still there,
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: or did he have to step down? Hold on. Let
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: me make sure of that. I know he's had, like,
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: health issues and whatever. Yeah, he's still there, it looks like.
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: So.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: All right, yeah, so Kansas does have that pedigree there.
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: Gonzaga's 32-1. I didn't talk about them because they're, where
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: are they now? The conferences have realigned. They might be in, like,
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: a newly formed Pac-12 conference or something now. I think
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: it might be where Gonzaga is. I don't even know. But, yeah,
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're interesting, but because they play in, like,
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: a weaker conference, they never reach that, like, you know,
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: they've reached a championship game before, but they've never actually
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: won it. And then Kentucky at 35-1. You know, interesting,
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: I think. I think they're a little bit undervalued there.
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: Virginia 35-1. I don't know. I'm not sold on them.
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: Iowa State 37-1. Ken Baum has Iowa State way higher
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: than that at number six. So he's telling you there
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: is value on Iowa State, even though they are supposed
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: to take a step back. So in the champion market,
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: maybe there is a little bit of value there on
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: Iowa State. And then Michigan's at 40-1. So that was
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: like I was saying, like, The champion from last year
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: being 40-1, I mean, I don't expect them to repeat, obviously,
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: with a new coach there and whatever, but 40-1 does
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: seem like it's undervaluing Michigan, and maybe, like, it might be, like,
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: factoring in all the changes that they've had a little
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: bit too much there. So, like, in the champion market, yeah, definitely.
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: You know, maybe this is the value there. I probably,
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think I would do it, though.
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: I think what I like is I like Texas to
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: be a surprise. I like Michigan State. I like those
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: two teams. I mean, they're real long shots here. Florida,
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: as far as, like, a team that's, like, expected to
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: be one of those teams there, don't mind, you know,
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: taking a shot with Florida. But for, like, the longer
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: shots there, the surprise teams, maybe you could hedge later.
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: I like Michigan State, Texas, Kansas at 30-1. As far as.
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and then as far as Ken Baum, Ken Baum
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: is telling you there is value on, well, Kansas, Texas. Well, actually,
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: maybe not even really Texas, though. Kansas, yes. He's telling
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: you there's value on Houston, though, and on probably on
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: Michigan and on... What was the other one I missed there?
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: I know Iowa State. Yeah, so according to Ken Baum,
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: those would be where the value is. And Ken Baum,
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: he has Michigan at number 28 in the country right now, which,
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: you know... Does that mean they're undervalued in the championship market?
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: I'm not so sure. They're expected to definitely take a
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: step back and be one of those teams that's almost like...
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: Somewhat maybe even of a bubble team, but we'll see.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: Of course, the bubble gets expanded even more because of
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: the stupid tournament expansion, which I absolutely hate. They should
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: have left it at 64. 64 teams is perfect. 68,
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: you know, with the playing games, okay, whatever, I'll tolerate it.
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to tolerate this bullshit they're doing now
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: with 70 whatever teams. What is it, 76 teams, 78 teams,
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: whatever it is. There are going to be like 12
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: play-in games in this new structure. People won't even know
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: what the hell is going on. They won't even know
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: how to fill out their bracket. You're going to have
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: to wait for all the play-in games to finish before
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: you fill out the bracket. It's going to be totally stupid, dude.
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: So I don't know what else to tell you about that.
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: But yeah, those are my thoughts on the college basketball
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: landscape there. So there you go. horrible show obviously not
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: totally informative but you know um i bs and i
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: pretend that i know what i'm talking about that's gonna
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: do it for me for now man um had to
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: get this show out of the way before uh we
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: have sunday college basketball with a couple of uh games
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: that i think are some like neutral site games there
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: are two like showcase games on sunday for college basketball
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: so we will see i think there's really one really
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: big one which i want to say it's I forget
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: who's involved. It's Villanova, and I wish I knew. I forget.
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: Villanova is definitely one of the teams that's playing, but
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: I'll get to it when I get to it, man,
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: and see if there's any way that I actually want
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: to play that game. I doubt it, though. But until then, man,
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: I appreciate it, Mr. Pinsey, for hanging out so, so bad. Yeah, whatever. Or, sorry,
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: your name. What is that? Yeah, Sean, whatever your name is.
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: I appreciate it. It's going to do it. Learn to
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: Tote on Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, sort of. Like, subscribe to
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: the channel here. You'll get notified when I go live.
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: What else? We're on audio. Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. That helps
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: checking all that stuff out. I'm going to be back
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: tonight with the college football show. I still got to
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: handicap a lot of it and break that all down
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: and finalize the card. So be on the lookout for that.
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: That'll be tonight. covered in uke my ukulele channel on
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: youtube check that out patreon.com slash learn to tote if
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: you want to support me over there and loser cast
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: every tuesday night that's it it's gonna do it peace
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: for now.
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 39:15
  Speaker 4: You do not have to lose this round alone.
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on, not tonight. Not now Hold on, hold.
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: On Let me pull.
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: You out That bad luck fights hard But it don't
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: get the crown Hold on.
• 39:52
  Speaker 4: Hold on Stay with me now Hold on, hold on
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: You're still here now guitar solo